Nick Nelson

I can't claim to know the details behind it, but Blankenhorn made a total of 2 starts at 3B last year, including zero at Pensacola, where there wasn't really much high-level competition for reps (Caleb Hamilton and Joe Cronin led the team in 3B starts). On this basis, I have a hard time believing he'd be any kind of short-term option there in the majors. Then again, Jorge Polanco had pretty much fully moved off short in the minors before returning there full-time in MLB. So who knows.

The biggest free agent splash in Twins history is here to power up a reigning division winner, which likely would've been favored to make the playoffs in 2020 even without him. What is Josh Donaldson's impact at third base, and how big of a difference-maker can he be? Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports The biggest free agent splash in Twins history is here to power up a reigning division winner, which likely would've been favored to make the playoffs in 2020 even without him. What is Josh Donaldson's impact at third base, and how big of a difference-maker can he be? Projected Starter: Josh Donaldson Likely Backup: Marwin Gonzalez Depth: Ehire Adrianza, Willians Astudillo Prospects: Jose Miranda, Keoni Cavaco THE GOOD The Twins paid a pretty penny to acquire Donaldson's services, shattering the franchise record in January by inking him to a four-year deal worth $92 million. But their investment is well warranted, given his ability to enhance the roster in a multitude of ways. First, there's his leadership and experience. Donaldson has played in more than 1,000 MLB games, accrued more than 40 fWAR, been named to three All-Star teams, and won an MVP award. Already, young Twins hitters have been flocking to him in camp, and just as he hinted upon signing, the veteran slugger has been eager to offer insight and guidance. But in more tangible respects, Donaldson delivers a clear and decisive upgrade to this Twins club. Offensively, he's another high-octane power hitter joining a lineup full of them; it says a lot that Donaldson's .900 OPS and 37 home runs from 2019 don't especially stand out amongst his new teammates. But of course, adding another high-end bat is always a good thing, and Donaldson has a lengthier track record of production at this level than anyone, except 39-year-old Nelson Cruz. Donaldson's Statcast charts are a sight to behold. (Red means elite. There's a lot of red here.) Over a very large sample, Donaldson has flat-out clobbered baseballs with regularity. His average exit velocity and barrel rate both ranked among the top 8% of all hitters in four of the past five seasons (excepting only an injury-plagued 2018). If healthy, he's going to mash. Period. There's no one else on the roster we can say this about so confidently. But aside from joining the bomba parade, Donaldson also brings something unique to the Twins lineup: patience. The far-right column in the stat sheet above shows his BB rates, which have ranked in the top 4% of all MLB hitters in each of his last three healthy seasons. Only four qualified American Leaguers – Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Daniel Vogelbach, Carlos Santana – walked at a higher clip last year than Donaldson, who drew 100 free passes for the Braves. This skill manifests itself both overtly and more subtly. On 100 occasions, the slugger strolled to first base and set up a teammate (often Freddie Freeman) to do damage. But there's an attrition factor too. Donaldson grinds ABs. He rarely chases out of the zone, and averaged more pitches per plate appearance last year than Cruz or Luis Arraez (who were both above the league average). When he's in the box, the distinguished veteran places immense pressure on pitchers, luring them into nerve-racking deep counts and frequently capitalizing. From the very start of an AB, his opponent is under the gun. I think this stat kinda says it all: https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1232858042376564736 So clearly, Donaldson is a monumental addition to the lineup. Almost any other year, it'd feel like a transformative one, but given this team's makeup before he joined, Donaldson's biggest impact might actually be felt on defense. A variety of metrics – from Statcast's Outs Above Average (94th percentile) to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (second among MLB third basemen at plus-15) – ranked him last year among the league's finest at his position. He's replacing a player in Miguel Sano who was in the 8th percentile for OAA, and who cost his team an additional 20 runs defensively compared to Donaldson, according to his negative-5 DRS. THE BAD There's pretty much zero not to like about Donaldson, but when you look past him on the depth chart, and in the pipeline, things get bleak in a hurry. Sizing up the long-term picture at third base, it suddenly becomes much easier to see why the Twins were willing to go four years with the 34-year-old, and why they'll need to hope he can hang at the hot corner for some time. Our recently released Top 20 prospects list featured one part-time third baseman – Jose Miranda, at No. 20. Even the honorable mentions were devoid of players at this position. I listed 2019 first-round draft pick and current shortstop Keoni Cavaco as a future option here, merely because he played third base in high school and there's some thought he will end up there in the long run. But he's 18. The short-term depth also isn't great. Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza are fine fill-ins, but either one would probably be stretched as starter over a prolonged period. It would actually be interesting to see what would happen if Donaldson were to go down for a while. Would the Twins move Sano back across the diamond? Would they slide over Arraez, who started 15 games at third as a rookie, and tap into their superior depth at second base? Or would they leave the right side of their infield alone and just let the utilitymen hold it down? Hopefully we won't need to find out. Donaldson played in all but seven games for Atlanta last year, and has generally been an iron man with the exception of 2017 and 2018, when he missed a full season's worth of games due to recurring calf issues. His 2019 was very reassuring, but at 34, nothing can be taken for granted. THE BOTTOM LINE It's Donaldson, then a massive dropoff. Examining the organizational depth at third base behind Minnesota's new corner-infield cornerstone really brings into focus the magnitude of his addition. The Twins will get by without him if need be – they were planning around that possibility, as negotiations dragged throughout the winter and at one point looked bleak – but he lifts both their offense and defense by a full notch. "The Minnesota Twins will never be the same. This is a transformational signing," Matthew Trueblood wrote here the night it went down. As the season approaches, that now feels clearer than ever. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Second Base MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Just like first base, the Twins are committing to a new long-term fixture at second in 2020, after a brief transition period in 2019 followed the departure of a franchise mainstay. With a spectacular MLB debut, Luis Arraez firmly embedded himself in the team's plans. Image courtesy of David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports Just like first base, the Twins are committing to a new long-term fixture at second in 2020, after a brief transition period in 2019 followed the departure of a franchise mainstay. With a spectacular MLB debut, Luis Arraez firmly embedded himself in the team's plans. Projected Starter: Luis Arraez Likely Backup: Ehire Adrianza Depth: Marwin Gonzalez, Willians Astudillo Prospects: Travis Blankenhorn, Nick Gordon THE GOOD Arraez's rookie season was a smorgasbord of remarkable moments and accomplishments. He arrived in Minnesota as a 22-year-old with little experience above Double-A, and proceeded to lead the American League in batting average (.334) after the date of his call-up (May 18th). He showed amazing plate discipline and contact skills, striking out at the lowest rate in the majors while walking at a solid clip to buoy an outstanding on-base percentage. He held his own defensively at second base in spite of a limited physical toolset, and he even went out and played a capable left field now and then for good measure. Despite his greenness and lack of prestige, Arraez performed brilliantly, both when it counted and when the count was against him: In "Late & Close" situations, he slashed .346/.404/.442. (MLB average: .237/.320/.404.) In "High Leverage" situations, he slashed .429/.481/.531. (MLB average: .253/.327/.432.) In ABs where he fell behind 0-2 against opposing pitchers, he slashed .286/.314/.327. (League average: .165/.197/.267.) Because of all this, Arraez – a relative unknown at the start of the year – was able to wrest away the starting job from Jonathan Schoop, a veteran making $7 million and enjoying an altogether productive season. Late in the season, Arraez suffered a scary-looking ankle injury while fielding a fly ball, and the crushingly dismayed reactions that poured out from fans, players, and coaches alike at the time says all you need to know about how indispensable the second baseman made himself in a mere 92 games. Needless to say, second base belongs to him going forward, and that's something to feel good about. He probably won't hit .334 perpetually, but his approach at the plate is conducive to steadily remaining in the three hundreds. Sure enough, all five projection systems on FanGraphs having him batting between .309 and .312 this season, with an OBP in the .370 range. That'll play anywhere in the order, but it'd be surprising if Arraez doesn't hit near the top. https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1232703690475094017 He doesn't run that well, nor does he produce a ton of pop, but he's a very functional piece in this Twins lineup, which offers plentiful power and speed elsewhere. Defensively he will probably never be a true standout but he's adequate, with the chance to grow some more. Still 22 on Opening Day and under team control through 2025, Arraez has suddenly turned into a heck of an asset for the Twins. THE BAD It was only 92 games. Arraez's first season in the majors was about as convincing as it gets, but the fact remains: it's a small sample and he hardly has the bona fides to back it up. It's true that Arraez's .334/.399/.439 slash as a rookie is almost eerily consistent with his .331/.385/.414 line in the minors, but there was always a valid skepticism around his ability to translate that production to the highest level, thus explaining his absence from the national prospect radar (and even our own Top 20 list) ahead of his debut. Arraez is not unathletic. No one in the big leagues is. But he doesn't possess the physical gifts of a Schoop or Jorge Polanco. The stubby 5-foot-10 second baseman isn't a burner, doesn't have a big arm, and isn't a musclebound specimen like those surrounding him in the infield. So he has to make up for it in other ways. He excels in the mental aspects of the game, with a sophisticated understanding of the strike zone and stunning level of confidence for his age. His technique enables him to get the bat on the ball almost anywhere in the zone, producing a 2.8% swinging strike rate that was the league's lowest. This isn't to say he was making especially hard contact, however. As the Statcast data reflects, Arraez ranked near the bottom of all MLB hitters when it comes to exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and expected slugging percentage. Maintaining his level of production will require Arraez to keep making the absolute most of his skill set, while fending off counter-adjustments from the best pitchers and scouting departments in the world. One thing we can probably expect in his first full season is a heavier dose of pitches on the inside part of the plate, where he was clearly less effective. As long as he keeps laying off non-strikes, while connecting on everything in the zone, Arraez has a fairly high floor. But we might've very well seen his ceiling as a rookie. It's awfully difficult to routinely prop an MLB batting average well above .300, especially when you're more reliant on batted-ball placement than propulsion. Arraez's game is essentially dependent on this. Then again, he's 22. At the same age, Brian Dozier was a light hitter in A-ball, mustering a .349 slugging percentage. If Arraez muscles up and adds a bit more power while aging into his mid-20s, all bets are off. THE BOTTOM LINE Arraez is locked in. Seeing how well he can back up his sensational rookie season will of course be the most interesting and important story to track this year, but I'm also curious to see how things shake out with Nick Gordon. The combination of Polanco and Arraez, both controllable through 2025, presents a seemingly impenetrable middle-infield barrier for the former fifth overall draft pick, who is 24 and made a case for his readiness with an .800 OPS in Triple-A last year. A prolonged absence, or total unraveling, from Arraez is essentially Gordon's only path to a major-league opportunity with this organization. That's nice insurance to have in place, I suppose, but the Twins do already have Gonzalez and Adrianza available and are without starting positions in the majors. I feel a little bad for Gordon, whose diminished stock doesn't erase an outstanding pedigree and solid record of minor-league production through Triple-A. Which is all a long way of saying that the meteoric rise of Arraez has fundamentally reshaped Minnesota's outlook at second base, creating an abundance of depth that is actually a tiny bit problematic. (Gordon's 40-man roster spot could soon come under scrutiny.) A good problem to have, as they say. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

I mean it's not like they stand on the bags so we're ballparking it here. (Has that phrase ever been used more appropriately?)

Tibia, fibia ... tomay-to, tomah-to. Seriously, thanks for pointing out. Fixed.

After going with C.J. Cron as an interstitial stopgap for one year, the Twins are moving forward with their new long-term fixture at first base. Miguel Sano, contract extension fresh in hand, will be relocating 120 feet away as Josh Donaldson takes over the hot corner. If all goes to plan, these two powerful presences will be lining up across the diamond from one another for many years to come. The only uncertainty in this vision lies on Sano's end. Image courtesy of John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports After going with C.J. Cron as an interstitial stopgap for one year, the Twins are moving forward with their new long-term fixture at first base. Miguel Sano, contract extension fresh in hand, will be relocating 120 feet away as Josh Donaldson takes over the hot corner. If all goes to plan, these two powerful presences will be lining up across the diamond from one another for many years to come. The only uncertainty in this vision lies on Sano's end. Projected Starter: Miguel Sano Likely Backup: Marwin Gonzalez Depth: Ehire Adrianza, Mitch Garver Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Brent Rooker THE GOOD Sano's bat will play just as well at the new position. His 137 wRC+ last year ranked fourth among MLB third baseman (400+ PA) and would've ranked fourth among first basemen. Rebounding in convincing fashion from a tumultuous 2018, Sano blasted 34 homers with 79 RBIs in just 105 games after joining the team in mid-May, entrenching himself as one of the game's most feared sluggers. Controversy and drama have followed Sano into camp the last two springs – a sexual assault investigation in 2018 and a questionably-treated heel laceration in 2019 – but this year he refreshingly arrives with no added baggage (or bandage). To the contrary: Sano's place with the team is more secure than ever, after the front office committed to him through 2022 with a new deal in January. For his part, Sano is doing and saying all the right things. With no resistance, he gave up his previous position to facilitate the Donaldson signing – in fact, he played a role in recruiting the star free agent. By all accounts Sano is in phenomenal shape this spring. Rocco Baldelli opined that the 26-year-old "looks like a supreme athlete" and when you look at pictures from Fort Myers, it's hard to disagree. https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1229086404422127618 https://twitter.com/morsecode/status/1232030949631811592 Obviously, Sano is built to absolutely annihilate baseballs, and he does that. He isn't necessary built to play third base. While his magnificent arm was more than up to the task, Sano's size and movements just didn't lend themselves to the demands of the hot corner, and as a result he rated statistically as one of the league's worst defenders there. It's easier to see a fit for him at first base, where Sano's lack of mobility is downplayed considerably. At 6-foot-4 he offers a big target for infielders, and he knows how to handle a fast-arriving hotshot or rocket down the line. We have only a limited sample to draw from, given that Sano's played a total of 223 major-league innings at first, but he looks perfectly capable. THE BAD Entering his sixth MLB season, with newfound stability and security in the organization, Sano still has much to prove. He needs to prove he can play first base. Joe Mauer was a Gold Glove caliber defender there before giving way to Cron, who also showed very well with the glove. Sano has a high bar to live up to, and the stakes are also high. Neither of Minnesota's starting middle infielders (Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco) have particularly strong arms, so the new first baseman could be tested frequently. On the list of foreseeable pain points for a team that is generally very sound in its construction and outlook, this ranks pretty high. He needs to prove he can avoid falling into vacuous pits at the plate. While he might always be a streaky hitter, the cold spells where Sano whiffs relentlessly over expended periods are tough to stomach – especially when they're poorly timed. Can the Twins count on him to be at his best when they need him? The slugger provided one of the most memorable highlights of 2019, helping vault Minnesota to the playoffs with a grand slam in Cleveland, but mostly disappeared once they reached October; in the ALDS, Sano hit a solo home run but otherwise went 0-for-11 with eight strikeouts. Most of all, he needs to prove he can stay on the field. The Twins will live with growing pains at first base and occasional slumps at the plate so long as Sano can actually hold up over the course of a season, which would be a first. In his five big-league campaigns, he has never played in more than 116 games. His surgically reconstructed elbow and titanium-infused tibia are proof enough of what his body has been through. On this front, just like the two cited before it, there is reason for optimism. Sano had no significant durability issues after his late start last year, and importantly, gave no indication that his left leg was still a major concern. It's evident he put in some serious work on himself physically over this past winter. The chances are good that in 2020 we finally get a full season from Sano, and it'll be fascinating to see what kind of production he can put forth if we do. In the event he has to miss time again, the Twins aren't hurting for depth at first base, although the offensive drop-off would be substantial with present options. Marwin Gonzalez is the top backup, with Ehire Adrianza able to fill in as well. Were Sano to face a lengthier absence, Minnesota would probably need to find a better solution, like shifting Mitch Garver to first or calling up Alex Kirilloff or Brent Rooker. THE BOTTOM LINE No one should underestimate the challenges of adapting to a new full-time position. First base might be on the far end of the defensive spectrum, but in the famous words of Ron Washington in Moneyball, it's still incredibly hard. Sano will grapple with added pressure in his transition, learning on the fly for a club with championship aspirations, while potentially dealing with a higher-than-normal volume of errant or skipped throws. Having said that, he has all the attributes to quickly become one of the game's top first basemen. He's a huge, powerful guy just entering his prime. The future of first base for the Twins would appear to be in very good hands. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

One year ago, the catcher position was in a serious state of flux for the Twins. Starter Jason Castro was entering his last season under contract. Mitch Garver was still seeking to fully establish himself. Willians Astudillo was a complete wild card. Today, the Twins can confidently count themselves as one of the strongest teams in the league at catcher, if not No. 1 on the list. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports One year ago, the catcher position was in a serious state of flux for the Twins. Starter Jason Castro was entering his last season under contract. Mitch Garver was still seeking to fully establish himself. Willians Astudillo was a complete wild card. Today, the Twins can confidently count themselves as one of the strongest teams in the league at catcher, if not No. 1 on the list. Projected Starter: Mitch Garver Likely Backup: Alex Avila Depth: Willians Astudillo, Tomas Telis Prospects: Ryan Jeffers, Ben Rortvedt THE GOOD When analyzing this position last spring, I called Twins catchers a collection of "promising question marks." Then, the backup Garver went on to enjoy a breakout year of epic proportions. This spring, in the words of MLB.com's Mike Petriello, "there's only one question Twins fans are interested in: Can he do it again?" Petriello's article notes that Garver's emergence in 2019, while out-of-nowhere, carried plenty of legitimizing traits: he ranked sixth among MLB hitters in hard-hit rate, seventh in average exit velocity, 14th in barrels per batted ball, and rated as one of the best fastball hitters in recent history. There was nothing misleading about Garver's spectacular results last year – he took terrific ABs and hit the ball hard consistently, thus he did tons of damage. Not only that, but Garver made massive strides defensively, implementing changes in technique to go from a 5th-percentile pitch framer to the 80th percentile (per Baseball Prospectus) in a one-year span. There isn't much, other than the ingrained skepticism from watching many isolated "breakouts" come and go, to suggest Garver is due for overwhelming regression in 2020. He figures to be a solidly above-average starter at the very least. But even if he doesn't lose a step, the Twins have made clear they are going to limit his game reps in efforts to preserve his body for the long haul. So a quality timeshare partner is needed, and it appears the front office identified a good one. Avila could be viewed as a question mark I suppose, in the sense that he's a newcomer, but he's about as established and reliable a commodity you could ask for in this role. He's played in the majors for more than a decade, has a good rep as a receiver, and is accustomed to learning new staffs, having played for four teams in the past four years. As a part-time backstop facing mostly right-handed pitching, Avila will be an asset. He's one of the league's more patient hitters and a fine producer at the dish. He's only here for one year, but that's by design. Jeffers has solidified his standing as Twins catcher of the future. He finished at Double-A last year and could very well get a look in the big leagues this summer. All signs are very encouraging with the 22-year-old at this time. ("I think he's getting to the point where he becomes an option for our Major League team if we need him at some point in the near future," Rocco Baldelli said recently.) THE BAD The Twins suddenly find themselves quite dependent on Garver. They have the offensive firepower to succeed in his absence, but he's certainly become a key part of their lineup. The drop-off at catcher is immense from starter to backup, in a way that is probably unmatched across the rest of the roster. That's almost always going to be the case when you have an elite starting catcher, but depth is a bit of a murky issue. Avila would be palatable but stretched as a starter. Astudillo lost much of his luster in 2019, posting a sub-700 OPS as pitchers began to routinely exploit his extreme lack of discipline. Telis is next in line and while he's played in the big leagues a fair amount, he has hit .230/.267/.298 there. It's not that the Twins have especially shallow depth at catcher. There's just not much to get excited about after Garver until Jeffers is ready, which is probably a ways off. And while the incumbent enters this season in good health, his history reminds us how dangerous his position can be. In 2018, Garver missed most of September after suffering a concussion on a foul-tip. And last summer, he suffered a high ankle sprain on a scary home-plate collision. In both cases he was fortunate enough to avoid more serious trauma, and the Twins do an admirable job of protecting him to the extent they can, but there's only so much to be done. Playing catcher in the major leagues might be the most dangerous job in pro sports this side of the NFL. THE BOTTOM LINE The Twins have a top-tier starter, a qualified and complementary veteran backup, and a high-caliber prospect nearing readiness in the pipeline. There's not much more you an ask for. Minnesota is poised to have an advantage over virtually every opponent at catcher. Much hinges on people staying healthy. And as we know all too well, that can never be assumed at this position. So with fingers crossed (and mitt perfectly positioned to receive a pitch on the edge of the strike zone), we proceed with the best laid plans. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

"Minnesota Sportsfan" as a verb is definitely entering my lexicon

Barring a huge surprise, they're definitely not going to edge the Yankees or Astros in terms of a #1 starter. But I don't think that alone discounts them as a possibly better overall team.

In my 15 years following baseball as an adult, I can distinctly recall plenty of occasions where the Twins reported to spring training as clear division favorites. But never, to my recollection, have they been viewed through any objective lens as the class of the entire American League. As spring training gets underway here in 2020 and fellow contenders for the distinction face myriad issues and distractions, the Twins might very well deserve a billing as the team to beat. Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports In my 15 years following baseball as an adult, I can distinctly recall plenty of occasions where the Twins reported to spring training as clear division favorites. But never, to my recollection, have they been viewed through any objective lens as the class of the entire American League. As spring training gets underway here in 2020 and fellow contenders for the distinction face myriad issues and distractions, the Twins might very well deserve a billing as the team to beat. The three defending division champs – Yankees, Astros, Twins – are rightfully being framed as top dogs in the AL. Generally, the trio is stacked in that order; the latest Vegas betting odds portray Minnesota as third-most likely among AL teams to win the World Series at +2000, solidly behind New York (+350) and Houston (+700). This hierarchy is perfectly understandable: The Yankees, coming off an injury-plagued season that still saw them win 103 games and nearly reach the World Series, added the top free agent in Gerrit Cole. Houston lost Cole to the Yankees, accounting for the flip-flop at the top, but this remains a mostly-intact team that tallied 107 wins and came within a game of clinching its second title in three years. The Twins had an aggressive and fruitful offseason, building upon the sturdy foundation that yielded incredible regular-season results in 2019, but they are unproven at this level, especially in the rotation. But while Minnesota hits the ground running here in the early days of spring training, fully healthy and devoid of major drama, their peers at the top tier aren't in such favorable places. New York has been pummeled with a barrage of bad news in the rotation, which was in need of Cole's upgrade after producing so-so results last year. James Paxton underwent back surgery in early February and will miss the first few weeks of the season at least. More disturbingly, Luis Severino is dealing with forearm soreness, and at last check, was slated to undergo a "battery of tests" from "several specialists." Obviously, there is concern here. [update: Severino will indeed miss the season due to Tommy John surgery.] If the Yankees open up the season with both those key starters sidelined, their rotation figures to look something like this: Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga. While the Twins certainly can't compete at the No. 1 spot, I think there's a good case they are significantly stronger outside of it. New York will hope to get back Paxton and Severino at full strength somewhere along the way, but Minnesota has Michael Pineda and Rich Hill in the offing. Offensively, both the Twins and Yankees are going to be good. If it's anything like last year, it could be close to a wash. Fuller seasons from Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge would do much to offset the addition of Josh Donaldson to the Bomba Squad. But no team – including the Yanks – can match Minnesota's lineup depth. Okay, so what about the Astros. They've won 100-plus games in three consecutive years. They built a model for success that others throughout the league (including Minnesota) openly seek to emulate. They are clearly loaded with talent, boasting a high-octane offense and the reigning Cy Young winner. I can buy that, on paper, Houston is a better team than Minnesota. But the whole "on paper" concept has been thrown askew for this club, as revelations of past cheating come to light. With both their manager and general manager fired, and players under unprecedented verbal assault from their peers around the league, the Astros face a firestorm the likes of which we've never seen. How will this maelstrom affect their on-field performance? Maybe a lot, maybe a little. We have no way to know. But it certainly adds an element of uncertainty for this group of players, as they deal with cold receptions from players and fans across the league, under a new (albeit seasoned and respected) manager, with their every move scrutinized. Granted, we still haven't flipped the calendar to March. There's a long way to go before Opening Day. But Twins camps has been filled so far with positives: Donaldson exerting his leadership, prospects starring in an opening exhibition blowout, Rocco Baldelli officially certifying World Series aspirations, pitchers blowing away opposing hitters in early action. Miguel Sano, who showed up a year ago with a heel laceration that set him back significantly, is now in the proverbial best shape of his life. Nelson Cruz survived an early scare with his balky wrist. Byron Buxton, whose 2019 season ended with shoulder surgery, is already taking hacks in the cage without any apparent limitations. https://twitter.com/morsecode/status/1229427243719577600 The negative storylines, such as Fernando Romero missing spring training with visa issues, are thus far sparse and relatively minor. Obviously I recognize this won't always remain the case, but the Twins are at least starting from a good place and, as alluded to before, they're well equipped to sustain the inevitable injuries and tribulations that come along. One thing working against Minnesota in this conversation is experience. The Yankees and Astros have both shown the ability to sustain elite performance over multiple seasons. They've both made deep playoff runs. The Twins won't be able to boast those kinda credentials until they actually do it, which is why we won't see them jump New York or Houston in the betting odds despite the circumstantial advantages discussed here. Still, the fact that a respectable case can be made for the Twins as pennant favorites at the start of spring training? Well, it's exciting and frankly a little difficult to process. Minnesota spent so long as an also-ran, and was such a scrappy underdog even in the modern glory days, that the Twins being viewed across the league as an intimidating and overmatching opponent will take some getting used to. I look forward to it. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Updates from LaVelle:

Disappointing news today via LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune: The Twins are anticipating that Fernando Romero will miss most or all of spring training as his visa issues persist. "Romero has to resubmit documents to obtain a work visa to enter the country, a process that's expected to take weeks," Neal writes. "Therefore, the club is preparing for the possibility that Romero will not be part of the major league camp." This is a huge setback for the 25-year-old Romero, who could've easily won a spot in the bullpen with a strong spring. He's all but certain to open in Triple-A now. He's facing a critical opportunity with the Twins searching for bullpen firepower to replace Graterol. It's truly hard to understand how these kinds of things can happen with so much on the line. Alas, Romero will have some ground to make up once he gets here. But it's worth keeping in mind Sano was also 25 a year ago when he showed up at camp with a seemingly self-sabotaging heel laceration. After a late start, he got right back to where he and the Twins needed him to be. Hopefully something similar happens here. What are your thoughts on this development?

It all filters up to the top. Personally I use the GM's name as a shorthand referencing the operations in place during their tenures, for which they were accountable. I'm not naive enough to think that Ryan or Smith was solely responsible for any draft picks, IFA signings, or developmental successes/failures. But they built and oversaw the groups that made it all happen. Bottom line is that baseball ops was a total and complete mess during TR's second stint. That's how you lead the game in losses over a five-year span. He has to wear that. I don't think it's a controversial statement. The other poster's assertion that there's "hatred" for Ryan being expressed is quite dramatic. Myself, I look back on him very fondly, both for the person he is and what he built in the 2000s. But the 180-degree turnaround we've seen in the past 3 years makes it all the clearer how bad things had gotten by the end.

*whispers* Actually Bill Smith was in charge when the Twins made their most impactful IFA moves...

You seem to have abandoned the original point here. We're talking about development, so their timing on a Dozier trade is not pertinent. What is pertinent is that they took the modest talent they got for him and turned it into something. When you make a comment like "The total system failure of 16 is remembered but the total system failure of 18 is not" it's hard for me to believe you're being honest and objective in your evaluations. The Twins lost 103 games in 2016, the worst season in franchise history (post-relocation). They were 4 games below .500 in 2018. Not remotely comparable. The fact that the team is now succeeding with many players from the previous regime is exactly the point! We're talking about development here -- helping players realize their potential and reach new levels of performance.

Drinking the kool-aid?? Smeltzer came over as a partial return for two (bad) months of Brian Dozier, and contributed a 3.86 ERA + 0.5 WAR in 50 innings as a rookie last year. I'm not sure why anyone would not be happy with that or view it as a big success. Again, I'd love to hear examples of development success stories from the previous regime. How many prospects did they trade for that eventually turned into outstanding big-league contributors? To suggest the development group has "always been pretty good" runs contrary to all the reasons Minnesota struggled for six years and made a complete infrastructural overhaul, not to mention all the positive impacts we've seen since.

Huh. This doesn't seem to be evidenced by reality. With the exception of 2012 (Buxton and Berrios) the Twins had 9 straight first-round picks basically fail to amount to anything from 2009 through 2015 (Bashore, Wimmers, Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Bard, Stewart, Gordon, Jay). I also think you're deeply underselling the impact of prospects acquired via trade from the new front office. Devin Smeltzer was a difference-maker out of nowhere last year and the Twins got him for basically nothing. Luke Raley, added in the same deal, helped them complete the Maeda trade. Zack Littell is now a key bullpen fixture. Jake Cave is a proven big-leaguer and quality OF piece. The team is taking fringe talents (on the surface) and turning them into legitimately useful MLB assets. How often did that happen with the last regime?

It's a valid point but one big difference-maker is the advancements this organization has made in terms of development. Even if the talent isn't quite as strong on the surface, I feel much more confident in these guys reaching their potential.