Nick Nelson

Just like first base, the Twins are committing to a new long-term fixture at second in 2020, after a brief transition period in 2019 followed the departure of a franchise mainstay. With a spectacular MLB debut, Luis Arraez firmly embedded himself in the team's plans.Projected Starter: Luis Arraez Likely Backup: Ehire Adrianza Depth: Marwin Gonzalez, Willians Astudillo Prospects: Travis Blankenhorn, Nick Gordon THE GOOD Arraez's rookie season was a smorgasbord of remarkable moments and accomplishments. He arrived in Minnesota as a 22-year-old with little experience above Double-A, and proceeded to lead the American League in batting average (.334) after the date of his call-up (May 18th). He showed amazing plate discipline and contact skills, striking out at the lowest rate in the majors while walking at a solid clip to buoy an outstanding on-base percentage. He held his own defensively at second base in spite of a limited physical toolset, and he even went out and played a capable left field now and then for good measure. Despite his greenness and lack of prestige, Arraez performed brilliantly, both when it counted and when the count was against him: In "Late & Close" situations, he slashed .346/.404/.442. (MLB average: .237/.320/.404.)In "High Leverage" situations, he slashed .429/.481/.531. (MLB average: .253/.327/.432.)In ABs where he fell behind 0-2 against opposing pitchers, he slashed .286/.314/.327. (League average: .165/.197/.267.)Because of all this, Arraez – a relative unknown at the start of the year – was able to wrest away the starting job from Jonathan Schoop, a veteran making $7 million and enjoying an altogether productive season. Late in the season, Arraez suffered a scary-looking ankle injury while fielding a fly ball, and the crushingly dismayed reactions that poured out from fans, players, and coaches alike at the time says all you need to know about how indispensable the second baseman made himself in a mere 92 games. Needless to say, second base belongs to him going forward, and that's something to feel good about. He probably won't hit .334 perpetually, but his approach at the plate is conducive to steadily remaining in the three hundreds. Sure enough, all five projection systems on FanGraphs having him batting between .309 and .312 this season, with an OBP in the .370 range. That'll play anywhere in the order, but it'd be surprising if Arraez doesn't hit near the top. He doesn't run that well, nor does he produce a ton of pop, but he's a very functional piece in this Twins lineup, which offers plentiful power and speed elsewhere. Defensively he will probably never be a true standout but he's adequate, with the chance to grow some more. Still 22 on Opening Day and under team control through 2025, Arraez has suddenly turned into a heck of an asset for the Twins. THE BAD It was only 92 games. Arraez's first season in the majors was about as convincing as it gets, but the fact remains: it's a small sample and he hardly has the bona fides to back it up. It's true that Arraez's .334/.399/.439 slash as a rookie is almost eerily consistent with his .331/.385/.414 line in the minors, but there was always a valid skepticism around his ability to translate that production to the highest level, thus explaining his absence from the national prospect radar (and even our own Top 20 list) ahead of his debut. Arraez is not unathletic. No one in the big leagues is. But he doesn't possess the physical gifts of a Schoop or Jorge Polanco. The stubby 5-foot-10 second baseman isn't a burner, doesn't have a big arm, and isn't a musclebound specimen like those surrounding him in the infield. So he has to make up for it in other ways. He excels in the mental aspects of the game, with a sophisticated understanding of the strike zone and stunning level of confidence for his age. His technique enables him to get the bat on the ball almost anywhere in the zone, producing a 2.8% swinging strike rate that was the league's lowest. This isn't to say he was making especially hard contact, however. As the Statcast data reflects, Arraez ranked near the bottom of all MLB hitters when it comes to exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and expected slugging percentage. Download attachment: arraezstatcast.png Maintaining his level of production will require Arraez to keep making the absolute most of his skill set, while fending off counter-adjustments from the best pitchers and scouting departments in the world. One thing we can probably expect in his first full season is a heavier dose of pitches on the inside part of the plate, where he was clearly less effective. Download attachment: arraezzone.png As long as he keeps laying off non-strikes, while connecting on everything in the zone, Arraez has a fairly high floor. But we might've very well seen his ceiling as a rookie. It's awfully difficult to routinely prop an MLB batting average well above .300, especially when you're more reliant on batted-ball placement than propulsion. Arraez's game is essentially dependent on this. Then again, he's 22. At the same age, Brian Dozier was a light hitter in A-ball, mustering a .349 slugging percentage. If Arraez muscles up and adds a bit more power while aging into his mid-20s, all bets are off. THE BOTTOM LINE Arraez is locked in. Seeing how well he can back up his sensational rookie season will of course be the most interesting and important story to track this year, but I'm also curious to see how things shake out with Nick Gordon. The combination of Polanco and Arraez, both controllable through 2025, presents a seemingly impenetrable middle-infield barrier for the former fifth overall draft pick, who is 24 and made a case for his readiness with an .800 OPS in Triple-A last year. A prolonged absence, or total unraveling, from Arraez is essentially Gordon's only path to a major-league opportunity with this organization. That's nice insurance to have in place, I suppose, but the Twins do already have Gonzalez and Adrianza available and are without starting positions in the majors. I feel a little bad for Gordon, whose diminished stock doesn't erase an outstanding pedigree and solid record of minor-league production through Triple-A. Which is all a long way of saying that the meteoric rise of Arraez has fundamentally reshaped Minnesota's outlook at second base, creating an abundance of depth that is actually a tiny bit problematic. (Gordon's 40-man roster spot could soon come under scrutiny.) A good problem to have, as they say. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I mean it's not like they stand on the bags so we're ballparking it here. (Has that phrase ever been used more appropriately?)

Tibia, fibia ... tomay-to, tomah-to. Seriously, thanks for pointing out. Fixed.

After going with C.J. Cron as an interstitial stopgap for one year, the Twins are moving forward with their new long-term fixture at first base. Miguel Sano, contract extension fresh in hand, will be relocating 120 feet away as Josh Donaldson takes over the hot corner. If all goes to plan, these two powerful presences will be lining up across the diamond from one another for many years to come. The only uncertainty in this vision lies on Sano's end.Projected Starter: Miguel Sano Likely Backup: Marwin Gonzalez Depth: Ehire Adrianza, Mitch Garver Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Brent Rooker THE GOOD Sano's bat will play just as well at the new position. His 137 wRC+ last year ranked fourth among MLB third baseman (400+ PA) and would've ranked fourth among first basemen. Rebounding in convincing fashion from a tumultuous 2018, Sano blasted 34 homers with 79 RBIs in just 105 games after joining the team in mid-May, entrenching himself as one of the game's most feared sluggers. Controversy and drama have followed Sano into camp the last two springs – a sexual assault investigation in 2018 and a questionably-treated heel laceration in 2019 – but this year he refreshingly arrives with no added baggage (or bandage). To the contrary: Sano's place with the team is more secure than ever, after the front office committed to him through 2022 with a new deal in January. For his part, Sano is doing and saying all the right things. With no resistance, he gave up his previous position to facilitate the Donaldson signing – in fact, he played a role in recruiting the star free agent. By all accounts Sano is in phenomenal shape this spring. Rocco Baldelli opined that the 26-year-old "looks like a supreme athlete" and when you look at pictures from Fort Myers, it's hard to disagree. Obviously, Sano is built to absolutely annihilate baseballs, and he does that. He isn't necessary built to play third base. While his magnificent arm was more than up to the task, Sano's size and movements just didn't lend themselves to the demands of the hot corner, and as a result he rated statistically as one of the league's worst defenders there. It's easier to see a fit for him at first base, where Sano's lack of mobility is downplayed considerably. At 6-foot-4 he offers a big target for infielders, and he knows how to handle a fast-arriving hotshot or rocket down the line. We have only a limited sample to draw from, given that Sano's played a total of 223 major-league innings at first, but he looks perfectly capable. THE BAD Entering his sixth MLB season, with newfound stability and security in the organization, Sano still has much to prove. He needs to prove he can play first base. Joe Mauer was a Gold Glove caliber defender there before giving way to Cron, who also showed very well with the glove. Sano has a high bar to live up to, and the stakes are also high. Neither of Minnesota's starting middle infielders (Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco) have particularly strong arms, so the new first baseman could be tested frequently. On the list of foreseeable pain points for a team that is generally very sound in its construction and outlook, this ranks pretty high. He needs to prove he can avoid falling into vacuous pits at the plate. While he might always be a streaky hitter, the cold spells where Sano whiffs relentlessly over expended periods are tough to stomach – especially when they're poorly timed. Can the Twins count on him to be at his best when they need him? The slugger provided one of the most memorable highlights of 2019, helping vault Minnesota to the playoffs with a grand slam in Cleveland, but mostly disappeared once they reached October; in the ALDS, Sano hit a solo home run but otherwise went 0-for-11 with eight strikeouts. Most of all, he needs to prove he can stay on the field. The Twins will live with growing pains at first base and occasional slumps at the plate so long as Sano can actually hold up over the course of a season, which would be a first. In his five big-league campaigns, he has never played in more than 116 games. His surgically reconstructed elbow and titanium-infused tibia are proof enough of what his body has been through. On this front, just like the two cited before it, there is reason for optimism. Sano had no significant durability issues after his late start last year, and importantly, gave no indication that his left leg was still a major concern. It's evident he put in some serious work on himself physically over this past winter. The chances are good that in 2020 we finally get a full season from Sano, and it'll be fascinating to see what kind of production he can put forth if we do. In the event he has to miss time again, the Twins aren't hurting for depth at first base, although the offensive drop-off would be substantial with present options. Marwin Gonzalez is the top backup, with Ehire Adrianza able to fill in as well. Were Sano to face a lengthier absence, Minnesota would probably need to find a better solution, like shifting Mitch Garver to first or calling up Alex Kirilloff or Brent Rooker. THE BOTTOM LINE No one should underestimate the challenges of adapting to a new full-time position. First base might be on the far end of the defensive spectrum, but in the famous words of Ron Washington in Moneyball, it's still incredibly hard. Sano will grapple with added pressure in his transition, learning on the fly for a club with championship aspirations, while potentially dealing with a higher-than-normal volume of errant or skipped throws. Having said that, he has all the attributes to quickly become one of the game's top first basemen. He's a huge, powerful guy just entering his prime. The future of first base for the Twins would appear to be in very good hands. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

One year ago, the catcher position was in a serious state of flux for the Twins. Starter Jason Castro was entering his last season under contract. Mitch Garver was still seeking to fully establish himself. Willians Astudillo was a complete wild card. Today, the Twins can confidently count themselves as one of the strongest teams in the league at catcher, if not No. 1 on the list.Projected Starter: Mitch Garver Likely Backup: Alex Avila Depth: Willians Astudillo, Tomas Telis Prospects: Ryan Jeffers, Ben Rortvedt THE GOOD When analyzing this position last spring, I called Twins catchers a collection of "promising question marks." Then, the backup Garver went on to enjoy a breakout year of epic proportions. This spring, in the words of MLB.com's Mike Petriello, "there's only one question Twins fans are interested in: Can he do it again?" Petriello's article notes that Garver's emergence in 2019, while out-of-nowhere, carried plenty of legitimizing traits: he ranked sixth among MLB hitters in hard-hit rate, seventh in average exit velocity, 14th in barrels per batted ball, and rated as one of the best fastball hitters in recent history. There was nothing misleading about Garver's spectacular results last year – he took terrific ABs and hit the ball hard consistently, thus he did tons of damage. Not only that, but Garver made massive strides defensively, implementing changes in technique to go from a 5th-percentile pitch framer to the 80th percentile (per Baseball Prospectus) in a one-year span. There isn't much, other than the ingrained skepticism from watching many isolated "breakouts" come and go, to suggest Garver is due for overwhelming regression in 2020. He figures to be a solidly above-average starter at the very least. But even if he doesn't lose a step, the Twins have made clear they are going to limit his game reps in efforts to preserve his body for the long haul. So a quality timeshare partner is needed, and it appears the front office identified a good one. Avila could be viewed as a question mark I suppose, in the sense that he's a newcomer, but he's about as established and reliable a commodity you could ask for in this role. He's played in the majors for more than a decade, has a good rep as a receiver, and is accustomed to learning new staffs, having played for four teams in the past four years. As a part-time backstop facing mostly right-handed pitching, Avila will be an asset. He's one of the league's more patient hitters and a fine producer at the dish. He's only here for one year, but that's by design. Jeffers has solidified his standing as Twins catcher of the future. He finished at Double-A last year and could very well get a look in the big leagues this summer. All signs are very encouraging with the 22-year-old at this time. ("I think he's getting to the point where he becomes an option for our Major League team if we need him at some point in the near future," Rocco Baldelli said recently.) THE BAD The Twins suddenly find themselves quite dependent on Garver. They have the offensive firepower to succeed in his absence, but he's certainly become a key part of their lineup. The drop-off at catcher is immense from starter to backup, in a way that is probably unmatched across the rest of the roster. That's almost always going to be the case when you have an elite starting catcher, but depth is a bit of a murky issue. Avila would be palatable but stretched as a starter. Astudillo lost much of his luster in 2019, posting a sub-700 OPS as pitchers began to routinely exploit his extreme lack of discipline. Telis is next in line and while he's played in the big leagues a fair amount, he has hit .230/.267/.298 there. It's not that the Twins have especially shallow depth at catcher. There's just not much to get excited about after Garver until Jeffers is ready, which is probably a ways off. And while the incumbent enters this season in good health, his history reminds us how dangerous his position can be. In 2018, Garver missed most of September after suffering a concussion on a foul-tip. And last summer, he suffered a high ankle sprain on a scary home-plate collision. In both cases he was fortunate enough to avoid more serious trauma, and the Twins do an admirable job of protecting him to the extent they can, but there's only so much to be done. Playing catcher in the major leagues might be the most dangerous job in pro sports this side of the NFL. THE BOTTOM LINE The Twins have a top-tier starter, a qualified and complementary veteran backup, and a high-caliber prospect nearing readiness in the pipeline. There's not much more you an ask for. Minnesota is poised to have an advantage over virtually every opponent at catcher. Much hinges on people staying healthy. And as we know all too well, that can never be assumed at this position. So with fingers crossed (and mitt perfectly positioned to receive a pitch on the edge of the strike zone), we proceed with the best laid plans. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

"Minnesota Sportsfan" as a verb is definitely entering my lexicon

Barring a huge surprise, they're definitely not going to edge the Yankees or Astros in terms of a #1 starter. But I don't think that alone discounts them as a possibly better overall team.

In my 15 years following baseball as an adult, I can distinctly recall plenty of occasions where the Twins reported to spring training as clear division favorites. But never, to my recollection, have they been viewed through any objective lens as the class of the entire American League. As spring training gets underway here in 2020 and fellow contenders for the distinction face myriad issues and distractions, the Twins might very well deserve a billing as the team to beat.The three defending division champs – Yankees, Astros, Twins – are rightfully being framed as top dogs in the AL. Generally, the trio is stacked in that order; the latest Vegas betting odds portray Minnesota as third-most likely among AL teams to win the World Series at +2000, solidly behind New York (+350) and Houston (+700). This hierarchy is perfectly understandable: The Yankees, coming off an injury-plagued season that still saw them win 103 games and nearly reach the World Series, added the top free agent in Gerrit Cole.Houston lost Cole to the Yankees, accounting for the flip-flop at the top, but this remains a mostly-intact team that tallied 107 wins and came within a game of clinching its second title in three years.The Twins had an aggressive and fruitful offseason, building upon the sturdy foundation that yielded incredible regular-season results in 2019, but they are unproven at this level, especially in the rotation.But while Minnesota hits the ground running here in the early days of spring training, fully healthy and devoid of major drama, their peers at the top tier aren't in such favorable places. New York has been pummeled with a barrage of bad news in the rotation, which was in need of Cole's upgrade after producing so-so results last year. James Paxton underwent back surgery in early February and will miss the first few weeks of the season at least. More disturbingly, Luis Severino is dealing with forearm soreness, and at last check, was slated to undergo a "battery of tests" from "several specialists." Obviously, there is concern here. [update: Severino will indeed miss the season due to Tommy John surgery.] If the Yankees open up the season with both those key starters sidelined, their rotation figures to look something like this: Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga. While the Twins certainly can't compete at the No. 1 spot, I think there's a good case they are significantly stronger outside of it. New York will hope to get back Paxton and Severino at full strength somewhere along the way, but Minnesota has Michael Pineda and Rich Hill in the offing. Offensively, both the Twins and Yankees are going to be good. If it's anything like last year, it could be close to a wash. Fuller seasons from Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge would do much to offset the addition of Josh Donaldson to the Bomba Squad. But no team – including the Yanks – can match Minnesota's lineup depth. Okay, so what about the Astros. They've won 100-plus games in three consecutive years. They built a model for success that others throughout the league (including Minnesota) openly seek to emulate. They are clearly loaded with talent, boasting a high-octane offense and the reigning Cy Young winner. I can buy that, on paper, Houston is a better team than Minnesota. But the whole "on paper" concept has been thrown askew for this club, as revelations of past cheating come to light. With both their manager and general manager fired, and players under unprecedented verbal assault from their peers around the league, the Astros face a firestorm the likes of which we've never seen. How will this maelstrom affect their on-field performance? Maybe a lot, maybe a little. We have no way to know. But it certainly adds an element of uncertainty for this group of players, as they deal with cold receptions from players and fans across the league, under a new (albeit seasoned and respected) manager, with their every move scrutinized. Granted, we still haven't flipped the calendar to March. There's a long way to go before Opening Day. But Twins camps has been filled so far with positives: Donaldson exerting his leadership, prospects starring in an opening exhibition blowout, Rocco Baldelli officially certifying World Series aspirations, pitchers blowing away opposing hitters in early action. Miguel Sano, who showed up a year ago with a heel laceration that set him back significantly, is now in the proverbial best shape of his life. Nelson Cruz survived an early scare with his balky wrist. Byron Buxton, whose 2019 season ended with shoulder surgery, is already taking hacks in the cage without any apparent limitations. The negative storylines, such as Fernando Romero missing spring training with visa issues, are thus far sparse and relatively minor. Obviously I recognize this won't always remain the case, but the Twins are at least starting from a good place and, as alluded to before, they're well equipped to sustain the inevitable injuries and tribulations that come along. One thing working against Minnesota in this conversation is experience. The Yankees and Astros have both shown the ability to sustain elite performance over multiple seasons. They've both made deep playoff runs. The Twins won't be able to boast those kinda credentials until they actually do it, which is why we won't see them jump New York or Houston in the betting odds despite the circumstantial advantages discussed here. Still, the fact that a respectable case can be made for the Twins as pennant favorites at the start of spring training? Well, it's exciting and frankly a little difficult to process. Minnesota spent so long as an also-ran, and was such a scrappy underdog even in the modern glory days, that the Twins being viewed across the league as an intimidating and overmatching opponent will take some getting used to. I look forward to it. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

It all filters up to the top. Personally I use the GM's name as a shorthand referencing the operations in place during their tenures, for which they were accountable. I'm not naive enough to think that Ryan or Smith was solely responsible for any draft picks, IFA signings, or developmental successes/failures. But they built and oversaw the groups that made it all happen. Bottom line is that baseball ops was a total and complete mess during TR's second stint. That's how you lead the game in losses over a five-year span. He has to wear that. I don't think it's a controversial statement. The other poster's assertion that there's "hatred" for Ryan being expressed is quite dramatic. Myself, I look back on him very fondly, both for the person he is and what he built in the 2000s. But the 180-degree turnaround we've seen in the past 3 years makes it all the clearer how bad things had gotten by the end.

*whispers* Actually Bill Smith was in charge when the Twins made their most impactful IFA moves...

You seem to have abandoned the original point here. We're talking about development, so their timing on a Dozier trade is not pertinent. What is pertinent is that they took the modest talent they got for him and turned it into something. When you make a comment like "The total system failure of 16 is remembered but the total system failure of 18 is not" it's hard for me to believe you're being honest and objective in your evaluations. The Twins lost 103 games in 2016, the worst season in franchise history (post-relocation). They were 4 games below .500 in 2018. Not remotely comparable. The fact that the team is now succeeding with many players from the previous regime is exactly the point! We're talking about development here -- helping players realize their potential and reach new levels of performance.

Drinking the kool-aid?? Smeltzer came over as a partial return for two (bad) months of Brian Dozier, and contributed a 3.86 ERA + 0.5 WAR in 50 innings as a rookie last year. I'm not sure why anyone would not be happy with that or view it as a big success. Again, I'd love to hear examples of development success stories from the previous regime. How many prospects did they trade for that eventually turned into outstanding big-league contributors? To suggest the development group has "always been pretty good" runs contrary to all the reasons Minnesota struggled for six years and made a complete infrastructural overhaul, not to mention all the positive impacts we've seen since.

Huh. This doesn't seem to be evidenced by reality. With the exception of 2012 (Buxton and Berrios) the Twins had 9 straight first-round picks basically fail to amount to anything from 2009 through 2015 (Bashore, Wimmers, Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Bard, Stewart, Gordon, Jay). I also think you're deeply underselling the impact of prospects acquired via trade from the new front office. Devin Smeltzer was a difference-maker out of nowhere last year and the Twins got him for basically nothing. Luke Raley, added in the same deal, helped them complete the Maeda trade. Zack Littell is now a key bullpen fixture. Jake Cave is a proven big-leaguer and quality OF piece. The team is taking fringe talents (on the surface) and turning them into legitimately useful MLB assets. How often did that happen with the last regime?

It's a valid point but one big difference-maker is the advancements this organization has made in terms of development. Even if the talent isn't quite as strong on the surface, I feel much more confident in these guys reaching their potential.

We've spent the past couple weeks profiling our picks for the Top 20 (and beyond) prospects in the Minnesota Twins organization. Now, as spring training gets underway in earnest, these exciting young talents will bring the team's minor-league complex to life. Let's step back and take stock of the Twins' system as it stands entering the 2020 season.Twins Daily's Top 20 Twins Prospects of 2020 20. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B: Strong infield D and contact swing keep him on Top 20 radar. 19. Cole Sands, RHP: Tremendous pro debut in 2019 with 5-to-1 K/BB ratio in A-ball. 18. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF: The innate power is finally starting to show up in games. 17. Misael Urbina, OF: Standout athlete flashing every tool as an unrefined teenager. 16. Edwar Colina, RHP: Big arm, wicked slider. If he keeps sharpening control, watch out. 15. Matt Canterino, RHP: Freshly drafted righty shows big potential with funky delivery. 14. Matt Wallner, OF: Former MN prep star fared well during first exposure to pro ranks. 13. Wander Javier, SS: Disastrous 2019 season doesn't fully diminish shortstop's shine. 12. Gilberto Celestino, OF: Skills came together during spectacular second half in A-ball. 11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Keeps missing bats at the highest levels. His upside endures. 10. Blayne Enlow, RHP: Progression has been gradual, but steady. Could turn a corner. 9. Brent Rooker, OF: Immense power just might offset K's and lack of defensive value. 8. Keoni Cavaco, SS: All projection at this point, but toolsy teen offers plenty to dream on. 7. Ryan Jeffers, C: Two-way standout at catcher has impressed at every stop through AA. 6. Jhoan Duran, RHP: Hard-throwing whiff machine could impact 2020 Twins as a reliever. 5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Sturdily built sterling performer has makings of a long-term SP. 4: Brusdar Graterol, RHP: The now-departed young flamethrower was an ultra-rare talent. 3. Trevor Larnach, OF: Hits for average and power, shaping up as prototypical star RF. 2. Alex Kirilloff, OF: Remains one of the best pure hitters in the minors. Handled AA at 21. 1. Royce Lewis, SS: Pure ability too blinding to look past, but there is work to be done. POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN C: 1 IF: 5 OF: 6 RHP: 7 LHP: 1 Two obvious areas of deficiency in the breakdown above: catcher and left-handed pitching. That's not by coincidence – they are notoriously tough spots to amass impact talent – but I don't see these scarcities as particularly alarming for the Twins. Pitching is pitching. Yeah, it might be nice to have a few more southpaws in the mix, but a righty-heavy staff isn't such a detriment right now for the Twins, and the MLB-ready Thorpe looms large as a lefty threat. As for the catcher position, Ben Rortvedt is right on the fringe of this list in our honorable mentions, and in the Graterol trade, the Twins acquired a 20-year-old catcher named Jair Camargo who is at least kind of intriguing. Oh, yeah... Graterol. THE LOSS OF GRATEROL After tabulating votes two weeks ago, we had our Top 20 list fully compiled and finalized. Rollout on the site was already underway when news of the Kenta Maeda trade surfaced. At that point, our options were to reset on the fly, or just run the rankings as planned. We chose the latter, because it seemed valuable to provide context as to what the Twins gave up for Maeda. Graterol was, from our panel's view, the organization's No. 1 pitching prospect before departing. But those rankings didn't necessarily reflect a future in the bullpen, which now seems firmer than ever. And even with all the noise filtered out, Graterol wasn't separated from Balazovic or Duran by much. The Twins have developed three upper-echelon – albeit not quite elite – pitching prospects, giving them the luxury to part with an undeniably stellar talent like Graterol. And, if you're wondering which player now slides into our Top 20, with everyone else bumping up a spot in his absence? It's Rortvedt, who was just mentioned. FEELING THE DRAFT Graterol wasn't the only valuable asset Minnesota lost in the Maeda trade. The Twins also forfeited their Comp B pick in the coming MLB Draft (67th overall), and based on how they've drafted as of late, this could deprive them of a pretty special player. Scouting director Sean Johnson is running a ridiculously effective unit for Minnesota. The top three players on our prospect list (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach) are first-round picks from successive years (2016-2018). All are consensus Top 100 guys. That says a lot. The Twins have also shown some ability to unearth gems beyond the first wave, like prospect No. 10 Enlow (76th overall), No. 9 Rooker (39th), and No. 7 Jeffers (59th). Add in the fact that signing Josh Donaldson cost the Twins their third-round pick (99th overall), and the toll taken on this year's draft class by these win-now moves is considerable. You won't find me complaining, but it's something to keep in mind. WATCH THE THRONE The top two spots on our list remain unchanged from last year, but Lewis and Kirilloff have definitely loosened their grips – especially Lewis at No. 1. His youth, athleticism, pedigree, and makeup were enough to keep the shortstop locked in as the leader and our list, and he's still in a healthy position on most national rankings. But between the scant production last year – .236/.290/.371 with poor plate discipline – and the echoing questions concerning defense and swing mechanics, there's vulnerability here. Any number of players from the list could plausibly take over that top billing a year from now. Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, and Jeffers feel most viable to me, if Lewis were to slip. Of course, there's also a plenty good chance Lewis rebounds in a huge way to re-stake his claim among the game's elite young talents. WHERE THEY STAND Baseball America released its ranking of MLB farm systems last week and had the Twins eighth. Bleacher Report has them sixth. By just about any measure, Minnesota boasts a top-10 system in the game, with a majority of its best talents rapidly approaching MLB-readiness. With the Twins bursting through their contention window, the timing could not be better. Strap in folks. Fun times are ahead. On a final note, I'd like to say that while I was researching and compiling entries for this series, two of my most invaluable resources were Tom Froemming's YouTube channel and Twitter page. If you enjoy Twins minor-league coverage and aren't following both, I highly recommend doing so. Tom puts together so much awesome video content and analysis. PAST TWINS DAILY TOP PROSPECT LISTS: TD 2019 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2018 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2017 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2016 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2015 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I never said it wasn't concrete. The concerns about Maeda's elbow were concrete, as acknowledged even by him (he did agree to the deal). My point is that "concrete" reservations over a medical scan can easily turn into nothing, and if Graterol's arm holds up the Red Sox may very well come to deeply regret their decision.

Here you go gang:

After a busy and fruitful offseason, the Twins will have several new faces entering the fold in 2020. As they get to know their new teammates in Fort Myers, let's get to know a little more about them. Read on to learn five revealing facts about newly acquired players, each of which tells a bigger story.1: Tyler Clippard won a World Series in 2017 ... but didn't pitch in the playoffs. Marwin Gonzalez has received a lot of attention for playing a role in the Astros' tainted 2017 championship. That make sense; the numbers make it quite clear he was a prime beneficiary of the cheating. One player who's receiving less attention is Clippard. That also makes sense; he was a pitcher and he wasn't even on the postseason roster. But the veteran reliever was on the 40-man roster, and with the team during their run, so he got a ring. It's unfortunate that Clippard's time with Houston coincided with one of the worst stretches of performance in his career. The Astros had acquired him from the White Sox in mid-August, hoping he could assist in their World Series pursuit, but the right-hander failed to earn confidence, posting a 6.43 ERA in 14 innings. So, he wasn't a contributor in October. But he was out there on the field celebrating as the Astros reveled in their title*. Unlike Rich Hill, who is singularly focused on winning a World Series after coming just short against those Astros in 2017, Clippard does have the coveted accomplishment checked off. But something tells me he'd like to do it again and play an actual role this time around. (Oh, and like Hill – plus almost every other free agent the Twins signed – Clippard does have postseason experience: a 4.26 ERA in 12 2/3 innings with the Nationals and Mets.) 2: Kenta Maeda's medicals raised red flags when he first came over from Japan. When looking back at the initial coverage of Maeda's signing with the Dodgers back in 2016, I found this tidbit rather ironic. Much has been made of the new starter's highly appealing contract, which includes low guarantees and heavy incentives. But the reasons behind this unusual deal architecture are interesting in light of all the drama that unfolded with the recent trade. Physical exams at the time of Maeda's signing revealed irregularities in right elbow, leading to a "strong suspicion ...he will need Tommy John reconstruction at some point." "It's factored into the length and structure of the contract," which maxed out at more than $100 million but guaranteed less than a quarter of that, according to Dodgers head exec Andrew Friedman at the time. Maeda was 27 then. Four years later, he's thrown 589 innings over 137 appearances for Los Angeles and had not one issue with his pitching elbow. All three of his stints on the injured list in LA were due to lower-body injuries. It's just another data point to illustrate that the human body is unpredictable, and medical prognosticating is an incredibly inexact science. So whatever concerns arose in Boston's eyes when they looked at Brusdar Graterol's medicals, causing them to sour on him and back out of the original trade, were flimsy at best. 3: Jhoulys Chacin has a better career ERA+ than Jose Berrios or Jake Odorizzi. His 108 ERA+ mark in the contextualized metric (100 is average) over 1,300 career innings edges that of either incumbent All-Star. Berrios (105) and Odorizzi (106) have been solid in aggregate, as has Michael Pineda (103), but Chacin's body of work surpasses them all. ERA+ shines a positive light on the former Rockie because it accounts for his six years spent in the league's toughest pitching environment. Chacin's 3.78 ERA in Colorado was even more impressive than it looked. Per ERA+, he's been above-average in six of his nine seasons with 50+ IP, including two of the past three. He has also been very durable of late, logging 100+ innings and 22+ starts in four straight campaigns. Because he's coming off a rough year, Chacin is being slept on as one of the most underrated additions in the Twins offseason. Tabbing him for the fifth rotation spot with a non-guaranteed deal is a completely risk-free proposition with very real upside. 4: Josh Donaldson was a childhood friend of former Twin P.J. Walters. I came across this factoid in a profile on Donaldson from 2013. In his junior year of high school, the Florida native transferred to Faith Academy in Mobile, AL, partially because Walters – "one of Josh's best friends," per MLB.com's Jane Lee – had enrolled there a year earlier. At the time that article published, Walters was pitching in the Twins organization. The right-hander threw 152 total innings in the majors, and 101 of them came with Minnesota, where he made 20 starts in 2012 and '13. It was a real low point in the franchise's recent history, as Walters epitomized the perpetual struggle of Terry Ryan's front office: throwing fringe arms at the wall in desperate hopes of adhesion. Walters was one of many misfires, posting a 5.79 ERA and 1.60 WHIP for the Twins, and never again appearing in the majors afterward. Donaldson, meanwhile, represents just how much things have changed for the Twins since those dark days. He's the marquee addition to a 101-win division champ, assembled by an overhauled front office that has elevated the club's operational sophistication drastically. 5: Alex Avila developed a rep as "The Titanium Catcher" ... and as a lightning rod for foul tips. In January of 2014, months after the Twins announced Joe Mauer would be moving away from catcher, an article on Fox Sports Detroit boasted of this nickname for Avila, who missed two weeks the prior season due to headaches and nausea resulting from a foul tip (incidentally, sustained just 11 days before the one that ended Mauer's catching career). "One thing Avila did do after he returned from the disabled list," according to the writeup, "was start wearing a heavier mask to absorb more of the impact from the foul tips he seems to get so frequently." His ability to bounce back from the bell-ringers earned Avila a rep for imperviousness, and he has gone on to start 387 games at catcher in the six years since. But as Twins fans know all too well, just one foul tip can change everything, especially when there is a history at play. Mauer moved to first base permanently in 2014, and later retired at age 35 following another flare-up of symptoms. Mitch Garver suffered a concussion on a foul-tip in September of 2018, and didn't catch again for the final three weeks of the season, casting some doubt on his own future behind the plate. Thankfully, he avoided any further issues or complications in a breakout 2019. The Twins will hope that Avila can continue to be titanium-grade this year, so he can help lighten Garver's load and continue the productivity of Minnesota's catching unit. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article