Nick Nelson

In general, Minnesota isn't the most attractive destination for free agent players who have their pick out of numerous suitors. But for one specific profile, the Twins are a particularly appealing choice. That profile? Formerly successful veteran pitchers with talent who are, for whatever reason (usually health-related), simply looking for a chance to bounce back, even if on a non-guaranteed deal. Anibal Sanchez was one such example in spring of 2018, though he slipped away. There are a few potentially similar names in this year's free agent crop that stand out to me, and I'll zero in on three of them below. Based on their track records, and relative youth, these free agents will surely have markets of their own – especially given the low risk – but the Twins can make a simple differentiating pitch: You don't even really have to compete for a job. Come to camp, show us something, and the gig is yours for at least six weeks – a rotation spot on a team that should be pretty good, with a cutting-edge pitching coach at your disposal. Once Pineda returns, if you've performed, you'll have a role (or at worst, you'll be an in-demand trade candidate). On those terms, I like the potential with these three. Matt Moore, LHP There are two reasons you might know the name. The first is that it belongs to the backup Chiefs QB who took down the Vikings at Arrowhead several weeks back. But that isn't who we're talking about here. Instead, it's another professional thrower, far removed from his glory days. When Moore arrived on the scene as a full-timer for the Rays in 2012, the left-hander was ranked by both MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus as the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. He backed up the hype as a rookie, posting a 3.81 ERA and averaging a strikeout per inning at age 23. The next year, Moore fully blossomed. He won 17 of his 27 starts with a 3.29 ERA and was named to the All-Star team. But from there, it was all downhill. The next April he tore his UCL, requiring Tommy John surgery. He came back in 2015 and struggled mightily. In 2016 he returned to form somewhat, but was shipped from Tampa to San Francisco at the deadline. The 2017 season was a complete disaster as Moore went 6-15 with a 5.52 ERA for the Giants, who then flipped him to Texas for a minimal return in the offseason. The Rangers couldn't work their magic on Moore in 2018 as he stumbled to a 6.57 ERA in 102 innings split between the rotation and bullpen. This year, he landed with Detroit on a $2.5 million deal but suffered a season-ending knee injury in his second start. Through all of this, Moore is still only 30. His velocity hasn't diminished. And, to the extent that you can draw any positive conclusions from a two-start season, Moore did look sharp in 10 scoreless innings for the Tigers, allowing just three hits and a walk with nine strikeouts. Shelby Miller, RHP Much like Moore, Miller was a highly touted prospect who burst onto the scene at a young age and then faded. In this case, however, the drop-off was even more severe. A consensus Top-25 prospect heading into 2013, Miller finished third in Rookie of the Year voting as a fixture in the Cardinals rotation, finishing with a 3.06 ERA in 31 starts. He was good again in 2014, got traded, and then followed with a stellar showing in Atlanta: 205 IP, 3.02 ERA, 3.7 fWAR (and a 6-17 record, oddly). Miller was dealt again in the ensuing offseason – this time to the desert, where his effectiveness dried up. He posted a 6.15 ERA over 20 starts in 2016, and then threw only 38 innings over the next two seasons, besieged by elbow issues. Last year Miller inked a $2 million deal with Texas, but was cut loose ahead of the All-Star break. The Brewers brought him in for a look and released him a month later. It's not a good sign when both those teams fail to make anything work with an arm, but perhaps Miller just need another few months of rest to get right (and the Wes Johnson touch?). He'll still be 29 next year. Drew Smyly, LHP Smyly really intrigues me as a fit for the Twins. He struggles with one very specific thing – the long ball – and "struggles" is putting it lightly. In 2016 with Tampa, the southpaw allowed 32 home runs over 175 innings. His HR/9 rate (1.64) was fourth-highest in baseball. He then missed the next two seasons entirely due to injuries (including Tommy John). When he returned this year, he once again gave up 32 home runs, but this time in just 114 innings for the Rangers and Phillies – a league-leading 2.5 HR/9 rate. When you get past the egregious gopher ball woes... there's definitely something here. Through his struggles this year, Smyly struck out 120 batters in 114 innings with his quality cutter-curve mix. The former second-round draft pick was once a young standout for the Tigers and Rays, posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 395 innings over his first four campaigns. The Twins have some cred when it comes to curing the home run bug. Smyly's former rotation-mate with the Rays, Jake Odorizzi, came to Minnesota and turned that same weakness into a strength. Historically HR-prone Michael Pineda also seemed to turn a corner midway through his Twins tenure, allowing 14 bombs in his first 10 starts this year and nine in his last 16. As a staff, Minnesota had the fourth-lowest HR rate in the majors despite ranking 24th in grounders. They're doing something right. Smyly's a gamble, just as Miller and Moore would be. But in each case, there's a non-trivial chance the Twins come up with a real asset by opening the floor to a quarter-season audition as they await Pineda's activation. Which one of these three interests you most? Or is there another reclamation project with real upside that strikes your fancy as an early-season plug? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

When the Twins originally signed Pineda, almost exactly two years ago, the appeal was obvious: frontline upside at a very good value, with the caveat of a built-in delay. Now, the same dynamics are essentially at play, except the wait is much shorter and the payoff is much less theoretical. This time around, the Twins aren't gambling on Pineda returning after a full year off and multiple surgery recoveries. He was healthy and strong before the suspension dropped in September, and while no one would frame his costly lapse as a good thing, there is a clear benefit in terms of workload management. Pineda threw 96 innings for the Yankees in 2017 before requiring Tommy John surgery. He spent most of 2018 on the rehab trail, totaling only 12 innings in the minors before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Due to this lack of build-up, the Twins were very cautious with the right-hander's workload in 2019 – he reached triple-digit pitch counts only twice in 26 starts, and had multiple phantom stints on the injured list – but despite these efforts, he was on track to approach his previous career high (175 IP, in 2016). At that point, you're worried about how the arm is going to hold up in the highest-stress of settings – the postseason – while entering unprecedented territory for innings pitched. Now, with this prorated deal, the innings management basically takes care of itself. Pineda's late start means his innings cap for the regular season is around 150, helping him stay strong into October. With two reigning All-Star starters already locked in, and plenty of flexibility to add more, the Twins can now view Pineda as an impactful low-cost reinforcement for the back of the rotation rather than a critical linchpin for the top. It took Pineda a while to settle into his groove this year – understandable given the layoff – but after shaking off some early long-ball issues, his consistency was unparalleled on the staff. After the end of April, Pineda posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 117 innings, adding a spectacular 118-to-22 K/BB ratio. He allowed more than three earned runs just twice in 20 starts over this span, with the Twins going 13-7. That overall level of performance would make Pineda one of the best No. 3/4 starters for any rotation in the American League. But it sure feels like he has another level, and was just beginning to unlock it before his season reached a sudden halt. In his final 10 starts he went 6-1 with a 2.88 ERA. In his two September turns just before the suspension, he struck out 19 over 12 frames. The Twins' offseason will be a massive letdown if they don't add at least one more starter who slots ahead of Pineda on paper. But it's entirely possible Pineda emerges as a No. 2 or even No. 1 caliber piece in the rotation – I mean, he's already pretty much done it, ranking among the AL's top dozen starters in fWAR over his final 20 starts of 2019. Pineda's 5.0 K/BB ratio in 2019 was bested by only these eight bona fide studs: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Shane Bieber, Zack Greinke, Walker Buehler, Jacob deGrom. For anyone who feels a player is irredeemably sullied after a PED-related ban, I call your attention to Jorge Polanco and Nelson Cruz, who moved past such mistakes to become arguably the team's two most valuable players in 2019. Pineda's transgression was deemed by the league to be clearly accidental. There's really no reason think it'll be a further concern. But if it does, or – more likely – Pineda's longtime durability issues resurface, the Twins are well-set with a contract that secures the mountainous hurler at an effectively trivial cost through 2021, at which point he'll be naturally built back up to a 200-IP workload. Pineda's deal almost certainly won't be the biggest move made by the Twins this offseason, but I'd wager we look back on it as their best. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

This is not an insignificant question. As I wrote when sizing up the catching market two weeks ago, "The decision here bears more importance than your standard backup catcher pickup, because the Twins appear committed to a balanced timeshare." I estimate there will be at least 70-80 starts up for grabs at catcher. That load could potentially be split between three players (an easier proposition with 26 roster spots), but in any case, Avila will be in line for substantial run – especially if the team decides to start using Garver occasionally at other positions. So where might fans notice an improvement in Avila, compared to his predecessor? Let's dig a bit deeper into what the newcomer brings on both sides. OFFENSE All the way back in 2011, a 24-year-old Avila burst onto the scene as Detroit's sudden star catcher, just as the Tigers were launching a mini-dynasty in the AL Central. Slashing .295/.389/.506 in 141 games, Avila was an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, and 12th-place finisher in the AL MVP balloting. A prodigious offensive threat, the young backstop piled up 19 homers, 33 doubles, 82 RBIs, and 73 walks in 551 plate appearances. Eight years later, all of those numbers remain career highs for Avila, who wasn't able to sustain his initial brilliance with the bat. However, the traits that drove his success continue to endure. He's extremely patient (his 16.6% BB rate over the past three years leads all catchers with 500+ PA), he's got some pop (nine homers in 68 games last year), and he excels against right-handed pitching (.775 OPS career, .795 in 2019). Offsetting these strengths, he hits very poorly against lefties (.617 OPS career, .681 in 2019) and strikes out at an exorbitant rate – like, almost Miguel Sano territory. (In fact, Sano is one of just seven MLB players with a higher K-rate than Avila's 34.3% over the past three years in 500+ PA.) Castro is similar to Avila in many ways, but to lesser extremes. He strikes out a lot but not that much. He walks a lot but not that much. Both are considerably better against righties than lefties, so the functional platoon utility is the same. This year, 84% of Castro's 275 plate appearances came against right-handers, almost identical to Avila's 82% in Arizona. Both Castro and Avila have had two good offensive seasons and one bad in the past three years; in both cases, strong showings in 2017 and 2019 sandwiched a dud in 2018. But Avila was better at his best, and not as bad at his worst; his total .752 OPS over that span easily beats Castro's .715. I think it's fair to say the Twins have upgraded modestly offensively with this swap, though similar overall production should be expected from Avila. DEFENSE This feels like the more pertinent matter. It'd be nice to get some offensive punch out of Garver's timeshare partner but the starter already specializes on that front. Castro's biggest value to the Twins came from his veteran defensive presence, game-calling prowess, and pitch-framing skills. How will Avila measure up on these fronts? Avila certainly has a wide breadth of experience, having spent time with four different teams since leaving Detroit (including another stint with the Tigers). He'll obviously need to build rapport with a new set of pitchers, but as a respected vet who's been around the block, that shouldn't be an issue. The most obvious asset for Avila defensively, and a point of contrast with Castro, is his ability to control the running game. Avila's caught-stealing percentage has been better than league average in each of the last three years, and five the last six. This year he gunned down a career-high 52% of thieving runners. Castro, meanwhile, has been below average (albeit it slightly) in three of the last four years and is coming off a career-low 19%. Pitch framing is the hot topic. It was Castro's major selling point when Minnesota signed him three years ago, and he made good on it. Here's how he stacked up during his Twins tenure according to the Adjusted Framing Runs Above Average metric via Baseball Prospectus: 2017: 16th out of 111 2018: 30th out of 117 2019: 25th out of 113 He wasn't elite at the level of a Yasmani Grandal or Austin Hedges, but Castro was consistently in the top quartile of pitch framers. From an observational standpoint, it was noticeable the way he would steal strikes for his pitchers on a semi-regular basis (especially with the likes of Kurt Suzuki serving as our baseline). Avila's FRAA rankings over the same span are kind of fascinating: 2017: 102nd out of 111 2018: 22nd out of 117 2019: 30th out of 113 Over the past two seasons, he's been almost Castro's exact equivalent. Prior to that, he rated as a completely awful framer. And 2017 was no isolated case – Avila ranked 88th in 2016, and 103rd in 2015. He experienced a complete turnaround upon signing with the Diamondbacks in 2017. This is almost the exact same leap Garver made from 2018 to 2019, with support from now-departed instructor Tanner Swanson: 2017: 73rd out of 111 2018: 110th out of 117 2019: 28th out of 113 Losing Swanson hurts, but it helps to have another self-made framing specialist in the house who committed to improving himself and did it. Perhaps Garver and Avila can learn from one another's contrasting strengths in this department: https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1202952333400907791 Based on all the evidence we've reviewed here, it's hard to say that Avila is definitively an upgrade over Castro, but this is at worst a lateral switch with a bit more upside. When you look at the very favorable terms of his deal – an inexpensive one-year pact that preserves flexibility to move top catching prospect Ryan Jeffers aggressively – there's really no knocking Avila as the choice. 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With Michael Pineda and Alex Avila now added to the fold, here's a snapshot of the 2020 roster and payroll as they stand today: Figures in blue are arbitration estimates via the Offseason Handbook, so the $98.5 million number isn't precise, but it should be in the ballpark. This means the Twins are still $25M short of their 2019 Opening Day payroll, and $40M short of the target John Bonnes reasonably set at the beginning of the offseason. There's plenty of flexibility to sign or trade for a high-priced starter like Madison Bumgarner, AND make a big splash elsewhere (say, signing Josh Donaldson?). The Winter Meetings get underway this week in San Diego. TWINS COACHING STAFF The major-league coaching staff had three different members poached – hitting coach James Rowson by Miami, assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner by the Mets, and bench coach Derek Shelton by Pittsburgh. The Twins promoted minor-league field coordinator Edgar Varela to replace Rowson, but is still seeking to fill the other roles. Here's the present staff makeup: Manager: Rocco Baldelli Hitting Coach: Edgar Varela Assistant Hitting Coach: Rudy Hernandez Pitching Coach: Wes Johnson Assistant Pitching Coach: [VACANT] Bench Coach: [VACANT]On the surface, Bill Evers seems the most obvious choice to replace Shelton. A 65-year-old longtime baseball man who served as the eighth MLB coach on Baldelli's staff this year, primarily assisting the catchers, Evers was bench coach in Tampa Bay during Joe Maddon's first two years as manager (2006-07). Evers also managed Baldelli as a minor-leaguer in the Rays system. Additionally, the Twins are working to replace a few departures from their minor-league instructional ranks, and have infused some new personnel throughout the org. Michael Salazar came aboard as head athletic trainer after serving in an assistant role for San Diego last year. Mark Moriarty, who is "widely known for using cutting-edge technology to successfully develop pitchers," was plucked out of a small private university in North Dakota to run the Twins' minor-league pitching program. More recently, the team hired a coach from Yale named Tucker Frawley to become their Assistant Field Coordinator/Coordinator of Skill Development. TRENDING OFFSEASON TOPICS Check out some of the latest and greatest articles on Twins Daily covering key storylines: Wheeler’s Gone, But Bumgarner Would Give the Twins Plenty to Work With Free Agent Faceoff: Madison Bumgarner Is Not Who You Think He Is Edition Twins Villains: 3 Free Agents Who Love Terrorizing Minnesota Just How Good is Blake Treinen, and Should the Twins Sign Him?

Cron, who was projected to earn around $7.5 million next year via his final turn at arbitration, was always a dubious bet to be locked in at that rate, despite the solid production in his first year with the Twins. His fate seemingly became sealed in recent weeks, with GM Thad Levine noting that the 29-year-old's postseason wrist surgery was "significant." https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1201652308079067138 Minnesota still has the option of bringing back Cron at a lower rate, and they may very well explore it, but for now, a wealth of possibilities open up. Among them: shifting Miguel Sano to first base and adding a new third baseman (or going with Marwin Gonzalez at one of those spots). Meanwhile, the decision to non-tender Hildenberger falls into a different category. He wasn't eligible for arbitration, but the Twins elected not to tender him a 2020 contract, thus making him a free agent and clearing his spot on the 40-man roster. Like with Cron, the Twins have the option of pursuing Hildenberger on the open market (and I personally hope they do). The rest of the arbitration-eligible pack was tendered, including: Trevor May, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Taylor Rogers, Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey, Matt Wisler, and Ehire Adrianza. The latter, Adrianza, inked a one-year deal worth $1.6 million – a modest $300K raise for a versatile player coming off his best offensive season. We'll now have to wait and see how salaries shake out for those other players, who can exchange numbers with the club up until the January 10th submission deadline. Usually teams and players find middle ground smoothly (we estimated where those figures might land in the Offseason Handbook), but differences in perceived value can emerge and cause friction. I've suggested this may happen with the Twins and Rosario. We'll see. Intriguing non-tenders from elsewhere around the league include A's reliever Blake Treinen and D-backs starter Taijuan Walker. With Cron and Hildenberger removed, the Twins now have five open spots on the 40-man roster.

Here are five conclusions I've drawn based on signals rising from the offseason landscape. 1: The Twins will need to pay a hefty premium to sign Zack Wheeler The team's interest in Wheeler is no secret. It's also clear they have company in this regard. https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1199127284185288705 The appeal of Wheeler heading into this offseason was easy enough to see: He's got rotation-fronting ability, but it never fully manifested in New York for various reasons. In seven seasons with the Mets he never threw 200 innings, while totaling a 3.71 FIP and 100 ERA+. In other words, his overall performance was almost exactly average. This backdrop set the stage for a team to acquire the 29-year-old's untapped potential at a relative discount, but when virtually every other front office has the same idea, the whole "discount" proposition goes out the window. To wit: Dan Hayes of The Athletic is hearing Wheeler could land something in the range of five years at $20-22 million per. https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1199791067123666945 That seems astounding for a guy with Wheeler's track record, but it reflects something we're seeing elsewhere on this offseason's pitching market, and more broadly as well: front offices are paying for the future, not the past. It sounds obvious, but has hardly been the norm throughout the history of free agency. Players got paid based on their accomplishments. It's basically what makes the service-time system work – to the extent it does. We're seeing a clear shift though. It's evident when Drew Pomeranz, owner of a 4-16 record and 5.36 ERA over the past two seasons, signs with San Diego for four years and $34 million guaranteed. It's evident when Kyle Gibson, who possesses a 4.52 career ERA and torpedoed late in a turbulent 2019 campaign with Minnesota, scores a $30 million payday with Texas (a team that previously executed similar plans with Lance Lynn and Mike Minor, with great success). And it's evident in the relative buzz around Wheeler, compared to other second-tier options like Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jun Ryu. Bumgarner is a four-time All-Star, a former World Series MVP, and fourth among active pitchers in ERA. Ryu finished second in NL Cy Young balloting this year, led the league in ERA, and owns a 2.98 career mark. Both hurlers have ample postseason experience. Wheeler is lacking in all of these credentials, but nevertheless, the preference of teams around the league seemingly aligns with that of Twins Daily's Twitter following: https://twitter.com/twinsdaily/status/1198098254916775936 So if the Twins want to add Wheeler, they're surely going to have to go well beyond the "bargain" realm. And if they truly believe in his ability to be that linchpin force atop the rotation, they should be comfortable doing just that. 2: The Twins aren't dead-set on bringing back Jason Castro If they were, they would've already done it. At least, that's my read. The free agent catching market has been active early, and another name came off the market last week with Yan Gomes re-upping in Washington. Castro is still out there, and a reunion remains very much in play, but the more time passes, the more likely it seems that both sides are seriously exploring other options. Given how well he fits, as a lefty-swinging veteran presence with strong defensive chops and a built-in rapport, I figured the Twins might just lock Castro down quickly and check that need off the list. Instead, they're taking their time. 3: More projects are coming to the bullpen As much as I'd love to see the Twins take an aggressive approach in powering up an already-potent bullpen, it always seemed more likely they'd focus the majority of available resources on the rotation. Uncovering hidden gems and converting previous starters has been the recipe for building this current unit into an asset, so why not stick with it? The claim of left-hander Matt Wisler, a former starter who saw his K/9 rate skyrocket to 11.5 as a reliever this year, fits that bill. As does the more recent addition of Mitch Horacek, who is himself finding his way in the minors as a hard-throwing reliever, after transitioning from a previous starting role. Blaine Hardy, signed to a minors deal last week alongside Horacek, brings another lefty arm to the mix with MLB experience and depressed stock. https://twitter.com/beckjason/status/1199364879234277379 The Twins are piling up "maybes" in a way that might negate their need to spend on ostensible "sure things." I'd still like to see at least one clear high-impact acquisition for the back end of the bullpen, though. I find myself wondering if the Twins fancy Blake Treinen, who's reportedly being made very available by the A's, as an opportunistic addition in that realm. The Yankees are said to be moving in. 4: Moving Miguel Sano to first base is on the table The Twins face a fairly important deadline on Monday, when they must make decisions on all of their arbitration-eligible players. The biggest question mark among that group is C.J. Cron, who was a key piece of their lineup in the first half, largely a nonfactor in the second half, and is now coming off thumb surgery. The possibility of sliding Sano, who was generally a negative with the glove at third base, across the diamond has been broached by fans often, and it does appear to be something the team is considering. https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/1198658195394310146 The idea of pairing Donaldson with Sano at the infield corners is beyond tantalizing. Mike Moustakas would also be a good fit in this capacity. (Todd Frazier though? Eh.) 5: The White Sox mean business. (And the Indians might not?) Minnesota will likely enter the 2020 season as favorites in the AL Central, but they won't have the luxury of three teams making zero meaningful effort to compete. The White Sox registered a statement with their bold signing of Yasmani Grandal to a $73 million contract, and they also reached a new deal with slugger Jose Abreu to keep him at the heart of their lineup for three more years. Chicago's talent pipeline is about ready to start delivering. Nick Madrigal might be their Opening Day second baseman, with the release of Yolmer Sanchez paving way. Meanwhile, Lucas Giolito is arguably the best starter in the division, and the Sox are reportedly looking to add another piece alongside him atop the rotation: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1197663148100050944? Potentially offsetting this development: Cleveland sure doesn't seem intent on making a push to retake the division. I haven't heard the Indians connected to any big names, and in fact, they've have been more prominently framed as sellers. Francisco Lindor, two years away from free agency, is apparently drawing interest. https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1194402612990185472 Corey Kluber is on the same timeline (FA after 2021) and his name came up in rumors last winter, so I fully expect to see it happen again. Trading either Lindor or Kluber would signal a pseudo-rebuild for Cleveland.