Nick Nelson

One year ago, the catcher position was in a serious state of flux for the Twins. Starter Jason Castro was entering his last season under contract. Mitch Garver was still seeking to fully establish himself. Willians Astudillo was a complete wild card. Today, the Twins can confidently count themselves as one of the strongest teams in the league at catcher, if not No. 1 on the list.Projected Starter: Mitch Garver Likely Backup: Alex Avila Depth: Willians Astudillo, Tomas Telis Prospects: Ryan Jeffers, Ben Rortvedt THE GOOD When analyzing this position last spring, I called Twins catchers a collection of "promising question marks." Then, the backup Garver went on to enjoy a breakout year of epic proportions. This spring, in the words of MLB.com's Mike Petriello, "there's only one question Twins fans are interested in: Can he do it again?" Petriello's article notes that Garver's emergence in 2019, while out-of-nowhere, carried plenty of legitimizing traits: he ranked sixth among MLB hitters in hard-hit rate, seventh in average exit velocity, 14th in barrels per batted ball, and rated as one of the best fastball hitters in recent history. There was nothing misleading about Garver's spectacular results last year – he took terrific ABs and hit the ball hard consistently, thus he did tons of damage. Not only that, but Garver made massive strides defensively, implementing changes in technique to go from a 5th-percentile pitch framer to the 80th percentile (per Baseball Prospectus) in a one-year span. There isn't much, other than the ingrained skepticism from watching many isolated "breakouts" come and go, to suggest Garver is due for overwhelming regression in 2020. He figures to be a solidly above-average starter at the very least. But even if he doesn't lose a step, the Twins have made clear they are going to limit his game reps in efforts to preserve his body for the long haul. So a quality timeshare partner is needed, and it appears the front office identified a good one. Avila could be viewed as a question mark I suppose, in the sense that he's a newcomer, but he's about as established and reliable a commodity you could ask for in this role. He's played in the majors for more than a decade, has a good rep as a receiver, and is accustomed to learning new staffs, having played for four teams in the past four years. As a part-time backstop facing mostly right-handed pitching, Avila will be an asset. He's one of the league's more patient hitters and a fine producer at the dish. He's only here for one year, but that's by design. Jeffers has solidified his standing as Twins catcher of the future. He finished at Double-A last year and could very well get a look in the big leagues this summer. All signs are very encouraging with the 22-year-old at this time. ("I think he's getting to the point where he becomes an option for our Major League team if we need him at some point in the near future," Rocco Baldelli said recently.) THE BAD The Twins suddenly find themselves quite dependent on Garver. They have the offensive firepower to succeed in his absence, but he's certainly become a key part of their lineup. The drop-off at catcher is immense from starter to backup, in a way that is probably unmatched across the rest of the roster. That's almost always going to be the case when you have an elite starting catcher, but depth is a bit of a murky issue. Avila would be palatable but stretched as a starter. Astudillo lost much of his luster in 2019, posting a sub-700 OPS as pitchers began to routinely exploit his extreme lack of discipline. Telis is next in line and while he's played in the big leagues a fair amount, he has hit .230/.267/.298 there. It's not that the Twins have especially shallow depth at catcher. There's just not much to get excited about after Garver until Jeffers is ready, which is probably a ways off. And while the incumbent enters this season in good health, his history reminds us how dangerous his position can be. In 2018, Garver missed most of September after suffering a concussion on a foul-tip. And last summer, he suffered a high ankle sprain on a scary home-plate collision. In both cases he was fortunate enough to avoid more serious trauma, and the Twins do an admirable job of protecting him to the extent they can, but there's only so much to be done. Playing catcher in the major leagues might be the most dangerous job in pro sports this side of the NFL. THE BOTTOM LINE The Twins have a top-tier starter, a qualified and complementary veteran backup, and a high-caliber prospect nearing readiness in the pipeline. There's not much more you an ask for. Minnesota is poised to have an advantage over virtually every opponent at catcher. Much hinges on people staying healthy. And as we know all too well, that can never be assumed at this position. So with fingers crossed (and mitt perfectly positioned to receive a pitch on the edge of the strike zone), we proceed with the best laid plans. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

"Minnesota Sportsfan" as a verb is definitely entering my lexicon

Barring a huge surprise, they're definitely not going to edge the Yankees or Astros in terms of a #1 starter. But I don't think that alone discounts them as a possibly better overall team.

In my 15 years following baseball as an adult, I can distinctly recall plenty of occasions where the Twins reported to spring training as clear division favorites. But never, to my recollection, have they been viewed through any objective lens as the class of the entire American League. As spring training gets underway here in 2020 and fellow contenders for the distinction face myriad issues and distractions, the Twins might very well deserve a billing as the team to beat.The three defending division champs – Yankees, Astros, Twins – are rightfully being framed as top dogs in the AL. Generally, the trio is stacked in that order; the latest Vegas betting odds portray Minnesota as third-most likely among AL teams to win the World Series at +2000, solidly behind New York (+350) and Houston (+700). This hierarchy is perfectly understandable: The Yankees, coming off an injury-plagued season that still saw them win 103 games and nearly reach the World Series, added the top free agent in Gerrit Cole.Houston lost Cole to the Yankees, accounting for the flip-flop at the top, but this remains a mostly-intact team that tallied 107 wins and came within a game of clinching its second title in three years.The Twins had an aggressive and fruitful offseason, building upon the sturdy foundation that yielded incredible regular-season results in 2019, but they are unproven at this level, especially in the rotation.But while Minnesota hits the ground running here in the early days of spring training, fully healthy and devoid of major drama, their peers at the top tier aren't in such favorable places. New York has been pummeled with a barrage of bad news in the rotation, which was in need of Cole's upgrade after producing so-so results last year. James Paxton underwent back surgery in early February and will miss the first few weeks of the season at least. More disturbingly, Luis Severino is dealing with forearm soreness, and at last check, was slated to undergo a "battery of tests" from "several specialists." Obviously, there is concern here. [update: Severino will indeed miss the season due to Tommy John surgery.] If the Yankees open up the season with both those key starters sidelined, their rotation figures to look something like this: Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga. While the Twins certainly can't compete at the No. 1 spot, I think there's a good case they are significantly stronger outside of it. New York will hope to get back Paxton and Severino at full strength somewhere along the way, but Minnesota has Michael Pineda and Rich Hill in the offing. Offensively, both the Twins and Yankees are going to be good. If it's anything like last year, it could be close to a wash. Fuller seasons from Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge would do much to offset the addition of Josh Donaldson to the Bomba Squad. But no team – including the Yanks – can match Minnesota's lineup depth. Okay, so what about the Astros. They've won 100-plus games in three consecutive years. They built a model for success that others throughout the league (including Minnesota) openly seek to emulate. They are clearly loaded with talent, boasting a high-octane offense and the reigning Cy Young winner. I can buy that, on paper, Houston is a better team than Minnesota. But the whole "on paper" concept has been thrown askew for this club, as revelations of past cheating come to light. With both their manager and general manager fired, and players under unprecedented verbal assault from their peers around the league, the Astros face a firestorm the likes of which we've never seen. How will this maelstrom affect their on-field performance? Maybe a lot, maybe a little. We have no way to know. But it certainly adds an element of uncertainty for this group of players, as they deal with cold receptions from players and fans across the league, under a new (albeit seasoned and respected) manager, with their every move scrutinized. Granted, we still haven't flipped the calendar to March. There's a long way to go before Opening Day. But Twins camps has been filled so far with positives: Donaldson exerting his leadership, prospects starring in an opening exhibition blowout, Rocco Baldelli officially certifying World Series aspirations, pitchers blowing away opposing hitters in early action. Miguel Sano, who showed up a year ago with a heel laceration that set him back significantly, is now in the proverbial best shape of his life. Nelson Cruz survived an early scare with his balky wrist. Byron Buxton, whose 2019 season ended with shoulder surgery, is already taking hacks in the cage without any apparent limitations. The negative storylines, such as Fernando Romero missing spring training with visa issues, are thus far sparse and relatively minor. Obviously I recognize this won't always remain the case, but the Twins are at least starting from a good place and, as alluded to before, they're well equipped to sustain the inevitable injuries and tribulations that come along. One thing working against Minnesota in this conversation is experience. The Yankees and Astros have both shown the ability to sustain elite performance over multiple seasons. They've both made deep playoff runs. The Twins won't be able to boast those kinda credentials until they actually do it, which is why we won't see them jump New York or Houston in the betting odds despite the circumstantial advantages discussed here. Still, the fact that a respectable case can be made for the Twins as pennant favorites at the start of spring training? Well, it's exciting and frankly a little difficult to process. Minnesota spent so long as an also-ran, and was such a scrappy underdog even in the modern glory days, that the Twins being viewed across the league as an intimidating and overmatching opponent will take some getting used to. I look forward to it. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

It all filters up to the top. Personally I use the GM's name as a shorthand referencing the operations in place during their tenures, for which they were accountable. I'm not naive enough to think that Ryan or Smith was solely responsible for any draft picks, IFA signings, or developmental successes/failures. But they built and oversaw the groups that made it all happen. Bottom line is that baseball ops was a total and complete mess during TR's second stint. That's how you lead the game in losses over a five-year span. He has to wear that. I don't think it's a controversial statement. The other poster's assertion that there's "hatred" for Ryan being expressed is quite dramatic. Myself, I look back on him very fondly, both for the person he is and what he built in the 2000s. But the 180-degree turnaround we've seen in the past 3 years makes it all the clearer how bad things had gotten by the end.

*whispers* Actually Bill Smith was in charge when the Twins made their most impactful IFA moves...

You seem to have abandoned the original point here. We're talking about development, so their timing on a Dozier trade is not pertinent. What is pertinent is that they took the modest talent they got for him and turned it into something. When you make a comment like "The total system failure of 16 is remembered but the total system failure of 18 is not" it's hard for me to believe you're being honest and objective in your evaluations. The Twins lost 103 games in 2016, the worst season in franchise history (post-relocation). They were 4 games below .500 in 2018. Not remotely comparable. The fact that the team is now succeeding with many players from the previous regime is exactly the point! We're talking about development here -- helping players realize their potential and reach new levels of performance.

Drinking the kool-aid?? Smeltzer came over as a partial return for two (bad) months of Brian Dozier, and contributed a 3.86 ERA + 0.5 WAR in 50 innings as a rookie last year. I'm not sure why anyone would not be happy with that or view it as a big success. Again, I'd love to hear examples of development success stories from the previous regime. How many prospects did they trade for that eventually turned into outstanding big-league contributors? To suggest the development group has "always been pretty good" runs contrary to all the reasons Minnesota struggled for six years and made a complete infrastructural overhaul, not to mention all the positive impacts we've seen since.

Huh. This doesn't seem to be evidenced by reality. With the exception of 2012 (Buxton and Berrios) the Twins had 9 straight first-round picks basically fail to amount to anything from 2009 through 2015 (Bashore, Wimmers, Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Bard, Stewart, Gordon, Jay). I also think you're deeply underselling the impact of prospects acquired via trade from the new front office. Devin Smeltzer was a difference-maker out of nowhere last year and the Twins got him for basically nothing. Luke Raley, added in the same deal, helped them complete the Maeda trade. Zack Littell is now a key bullpen fixture. Jake Cave is a proven big-leaguer and quality OF piece. The team is taking fringe talents (on the surface) and turning them into legitimately useful MLB assets. How often did that happen with the last regime?

It's a valid point but one big difference-maker is the advancements this organization has made in terms of development. Even if the talent isn't quite as strong on the surface, I feel much more confident in these guys reaching their potential.

We've spent the past couple weeks profiling our picks for the Top 20 (and beyond) prospects in the Minnesota Twins organization. Now, as spring training gets underway in earnest, these exciting young talents will bring the team's minor-league complex to life. Let's step back and take stock of the Twins' system as it stands entering the 2020 season.Twins Daily's Top 20 Twins Prospects of 2020 20. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B: Strong infield D and contact swing keep him on Top 20 radar. 19. Cole Sands, RHP: Tremendous pro debut in 2019 with 5-to-1 K/BB ratio in A-ball. 18. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF: The innate power is finally starting to show up in games. 17. Misael Urbina, OF: Standout athlete flashing every tool as an unrefined teenager. 16. Edwar Colina, RHP: Big arm, wicked slider. If he keeps sharpening control, watch out. 15. Matt Canterino, RHP: Freshly drafted righty shows big potential with funky delivery. 14. Matt Wallner, OF: Former MN prep star fared well during first exposure to pro ranks. 13. Wander Javier, SS: Disastrous 2019 season doesn't fully diminish shortstop's shine. 12. Gilberto Celestino, OF: Skills came together during spectacular second half in A-ball. 11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Keeps missing bats at the highest levels. His upside endures. 10. Blayne Enlow, RHP: Progression has been gradual, but steady. Could turn a corner. 9. Brent Rooker, OF: Immense power just might offset K's and lack of defensive value. 8. Keoni Cavaco, SS: All projection at this point, but toolsy teen offers plenty to dream on. 7. Ryan Jeffers, C: Two-way standout at catcher has impressed at every stop through AA. 6. Jhoan Duran, RHP: Hard-throwing whiff machine could impact 2020 Twins as a reliever. 5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Sturdily built sterling performer has makings of a long-term SP. 4: Brusdar Graterol, RHP: The now-departed young flamethrower was an ultra-rare talent. 3. Trevor Larnach, OF: Hits for average and power, shaping up as prototypical star RF. 2. Alex Kirilloff, OF: Remains one of the best pure hitters in the minors. Handled AA at 21. 1. Royce Lewis, SS: Pure ability too blinding to look past, but there is work to be done. POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN C: 1 IF: 5 OF: 6 RHP: 7 LHP: 1 Two obvious areas of deficiency in the breakdown above: catcher and left-handed pitching. That's not by coincidence – they are notoriously tough spots to amass impact talent – but I don't see these scarcities as particularly alarming for the Twins. Pitching is pitching. Yeah, it might be nice to have a few more southpaws in the mix, but a righty-heavy staff isn't such a detriment right now for the Twins, and the MLB-ready Thorpe looms large as a lefty threat. As for the catcher position, Ben Rortvedt is right on the fringe of this list in our honorable mentions, and in the Graterol trade, the Twins acquired a 20-year-old catcher named Jair Camargo who is at least kind of intriguing. Oh, yeah... Graterol. THE LOSS OF GRATEROL After tabulating votes two weeks ago, we had our Top 20 list fully compiled and finalized. Rollout on the site was already underway when news of the Kenta Maeda trade surfaced. At that point, our options were to reset on the fly, or just run the rankings as planned. We chose the latter, because it seemed valuable to provide context as to what the Twins gave up for Maeda. Graterol was, from our panel's view, the organization's No. 1 pitching prospect before departing. But those rankings didn't necessarily reflect a future in the bullpen, which now seems firmer than ever. And even with all the noise filtered out, Graterol wasn't separated from Balazovic or Duran by much. The Twins have developed three upper-echelon – albeit not quite elite – pitching prospects, giving them the luxury to part with an undeniably stellar talent like Graterol. And, if you're wondering which player now slides into our Top 20, with everyone else bumping up a spot in his absence? It's Rortvedt, who was just mentioned. FEELING THE DRAFT Graterol wasn't the only valuable asset Minnesota lost in the Maeda trade. The Twins also forfeited their Comp B pick in the coming MLB Draft (67th overall), and based on how they've drafted as of late, this could deprive them of a pretty special player. Scouting director Sean Johnson is running a ridiculously effective unit for Minnesota. The top three players on our prospect list (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach) are first-round picks from successive years (2016-2018). All are consensus Top 100 guys. That says a lot. The Twins have also shown some ability to unearth gems beyond the first wave, like prospect No. 10 Enlow (76th overall), No. 9 Rooker (39th), and No. 7 Jeffers (59th). Add in the fact that signing Josh Donaldson cost the Twins their third-round pick (99th overall), and the toll taken on this year's draft class by these win-now moves is considerable. You won't find me complaining, but it's something to keep in mind. WATCH THE THRONE The top two spots on our list remain unchanged from last year, but Lewis and Kirilloff have definitely loosened their grips – especially Lewis at No. 1. His youth, athleticism, pedigree, and makeup were enough to keep the shortstop locked in as the leader and our list, and he's still in a healthy position on most national rankings. But between the scant production last year – .236/.290/.371 with poor plate discipline – and the echoing questions concerning defense and swing mechanics, there's vulnerability here. Any number of players from the list could plausibly take over that top billing a year from now. Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, and Jeffers feel most viable to me, if Lewis were to slip. Of course, there's also a plenty good chance Lewis rebounds in a huge way to re-stake his claim among the game's elite young talents. WHERE THEY STAND Baseball America released its ranking of MLB farm systems last week and had the Twins eighth. Bleacher Report has them sixth. By just about any measure, Minnesota boasts a top-10 system in the game, with a majority of its best talents rapidly approaching MLB-readiness. With the Twins bursting through their contention window, the timing could not be better. Strap in folks. Fun times are ahead. On a final note, I'd like to say that while I was researching and compiling entries for this series, two of my most invaluable resources were Tom Froemming's YouTube channel and Twitter page. If you enjoy Twins minor-league coverage and aren't following both, I highly recommend doing so. Tom puts together so much awesome video content and analysis. PAST TWINS DAILY TOP PROSPECT LISTS: TD 2019 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2018 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2017 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2016 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2015 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I never said it wasn't concrete. The concerns about Maeda's elbow were concrete, as acknowledged even by him (he did agree to the deal). My point is that "concrete" reservations over a medical scan can easily turn into nothing, and if Graterol's arm holds up the Red Sox may very well come to deeply regret their decision.

Here you go gang:

After a busy and fruitful offseason, the Twins will have several new faces entering the fold in 2020. As they get to know their new teammates in Fort Myers, let's get to know a little more about them. Read on to learn five revealing facts about newly acquired players, each of which tells a bigger story.1: Tyler Clippard won a World Series in 2017 ... but didn't pitch in the playoffs. Marwin Gonzalez has received a lot of attention for playing a role in the Astros' tainted 2017 championship. That make sense; the numbers make it quite clear he was a prime beneficiary of the cheating. One player who's receiving less attention is Clippard. That also makes sense; he was a pitcher and he wasn't even on the postseason roster. But the veteran reliever was on the 40-man roster, and with the team during their run, so he got a ring. It's unfortunate that Clippard's time with Houston coincided with one of the worst stretches of performance in his career. The Astros had acquired him from the White Sox in mid-August, hoping he could assist in their World Series pursuit, but the right-hander failed to earn confidence, posting a 6.43 ERA in 14 innings. So, he wasn't a contributor in October. But he was out there on the field celebrating as the Astros reveled in their title*. Unlike Rich Hill, who is singularly focused on winning a World Series after coming just short against those Astros in 2017, Clippard does have the coveted accomplishment checked off. But something tells me he'd like to do it again and play an actual role this time around. (Oh, and like Hill – plus almost every other free agent the Twins signed – Clippard does have postseason experience: a 4.26 ERA in 12 2/3 innings with the Nationals and Mets.) 2: Kenta Maeda's medicals raised red flags when he first came over from Japan. When looking back at the initial coverage of Maeda's signing with the Dodgers back in 2016, I found this tidbit rather ironic. Much has been made of the new starter's highly appealing contract, which includes low guarantees and heavy incentives. But the reasons behind this unusual deal architecture are interesting in light of all the drama that unfolded with the recent trade. Physical exams at the time of Maeda's signing revealed irregularities in right elbow, leading to a "strong suspicion ...he will need Tommy John reconstruction at some point." "It's factored into the length and structure of the contract," which maxed out at more than $100 million but guaranteed less than a quarter of that, according to Dodgers head exec Andrew Friedman at the time. Maeda was 27 then. Four years later, he's thrown 589 innings over 137 appearances for Los Angeles and had not one issue with his pitching elbow. All three of his stints on the injured list in LA were due to lower-body injuries. It's just another data point to illustrate that the human body is unpredictable, and medical prognosticating is an incredibly inexact science. So whatever concerns arose in Boston's eyes when they looked at Brusdar Graterol's medicals, causing them to sour on him and back out of the original trade, were flimsy at best. 3: Jhoulys Chacin has a better career ERA+ than Jose Berrios or Jake Odorizzi. His 108 ERA+ mark in the contextualized metric (100 is average) over 1,300 career innings edges that of either incumbent All-Star. Berrios (105) and Odorizzi (106) have been solid in aggregate, as has Michael Pineda (103), but Chacin's body of work surpasses them all. ERA+ shines a positive light on the former Rockie because it accounts for his six years spent in the league's toughest pitching environment. Chacin's 3.78 ERA in Colorado was even more impressive than it looked. Per ERA+, he's been above-average in six of his nine seasons with 50+ IP, including two of the past three. He has also been very durable of late, logging 100+ innings and 22+ starts in four straight campaigns. Because he's coming off a rough year, Chacin is being slept on as one of the most underrated additions in the Twins offseason. Tabbing him for the fifth rotation spot with a non-guaranteed deal is a completely risk-free proposition with very real upside. 4: Josh Donaldson was a childhood friend of former Twin P.J. Walters. I came across this factoid in a profile on Donaldson from 2013. In his junior year of high school, the Florida native transferred to Faith Academy in Mobile, AL, partially because Walters – "one of Josh's best friends," per MLB.com's Jane Lee – had enrolled there a year earlier. At the time that article published, Walters was pitching in the Twins organization. The right-hander threw 152 total innings in the majors, and 101 of them came with Minnesota, where he made 20 starts in 2012 and '13. It was a real low point in the franchise's recent history, as Walters epitomized the perpetual struggle of Terry Ryan's front office: throwing fringe arms at the wall in desperate hopes of adhesion. Walters was one of many misfires, posting a 5.79 ERA and 1.60 WHIP for the Twins, and never again appearing in the majors afterward. Donaldson, meanwhile, represents just how much things have changed for the Twins since those dark days. He's the marquee addition to a 101-win division champ, assembled by an overhauled front office that has elevated the club's operational sophistication drastically. 5: Alex Avila developed a rep as "The Titanium Catcher" ... and as a lightning rod for foul tips. In January of 2014, months after the Twins announced Joe Mauer would be moving away from catcher, an article on Fox Sports Detroit boasted of this nickname for Avila, who missed two weeks the prior season due to headaches and nausea resulting from a foul tip (incidentally, sustained just 11 days before the one that ended Mauer's catching career). "One thing Avila did do after he returned from the disabled list," according to the writeup, "was start wearing a heavier mask to absorb more of the impact from the foul tips he seems to get so frequently." His ability to bounce back from the bell-ringers earned Avila a rep for imperviousness, and he has gone on to start 387 games at catcher in the six years since. But as Twins fans know all too well, just one foul tip can change everything, especially when there is a history at play. Mauer moved to first base permanently in 2014, and later retired at age 35 following another flare-up of symptoms. Mitch Garver suffered a concussion on a foul-tip in September of 2018, and didn't catch again for the final three weeks of the season, casting some doubt on his own future behind the plate. Thankfully, he avoided any further issues or complications in a breakout 2019. The Twins will hope that Avila can continue to be titanium-grade this year, so he can help lighten Garver's load and continue the productivity of Minnesota's catching unit. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins didn't have a 'need' for Trevor Larnach in the first round of the 2018 draft. The big-league team was brimming with young outfielders at the time, while Brent Rooker was quickly establishing himself in the minors alongside breakout prospect star Alex Kirilloff. None of that mattered. Because in the MLB Draft, you don't select based on need. Larnach's a perfect example of why.Position: RF Age: 22 (DOB: 2/26/1997) 2019 Stats (A+/AA): 542 PA, .309/.384/.458, 13 HR, 66 RBI ETA: 2021 2019 Ranking: 4 National Top 100 Rankings BA: 45 | MLB: 81 | ATH: 82 | BP: 85 What's To Like Larnach was one of the hottest collegiate players in the country when Minnesota drafted him, wrapping up a monster season at Oregon State with a beastly performance in the College World Series. After slashing .303/.421/.429 with three home runs in 60 games as a sophomore for the Beavers, the outfielder's power fully blossomed as a junior: 68 games, .348/.463/.652, 19 HR. That helium factor contributed to Minnesota overlooking its stockpile of bat-first corner guys in the system, snagging Larnach with their first 2018 pick at No. 20 overall. Good call. Larnach is a refreshingly complete hitter. Many power bats come out of the college ranks with huge holes in their swings and gaudy strikeout totals (see: Rooker) but Larnach achieves excellent strike zone coverage and can drive the ball to all fields. He has struck out in only 21% of his pro plate appearances while batting ~.300 or better at every stop dating back to his sophomore year at Oregon State. Among qualified hitters in the Florida State League, where Larnach spent much of 2019 before a mid-July promotion to Double-A, his .316 average ranked No. 1 (the second-best mark was .298, which tells you something about the challenging FSL hitting environment), as did his OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and any other hitting metric you might invoke. He was simply transcendent. He didn't slow down much after heading to Pensacola. In the Southern League, Larnach posted an identical .842 OPS overall, gradually finding his groove after a slow start and slashing .324/.417/.479 in his final 20 games. For the season, Larnach led all Twins minor leaguers in hits, appropriately earning himself Minor League Hitter of the Year honors from both Twins Daily and the Twins themselves. At 6-foot-4 and 220 lbs, the strong-armed lefty swinger has all the attributes of a prototypical brawny right field staple. What's Left To Work On A major power surge in his junior year is what solidified Larnach's status as a first-round pick, but that pronounced pop hasn't yet carried over to the pros. Don't get me wrong, a .468 slugging percentage through 169 minor-league games is nothing to scoff at, but a .149 ISO and 18 total home runs are lower than you'd expect from a guy with his size, scouting grades, and overall production. His trouble? Turning on the ball. Last June, even as he tore up the FSL, Larnach told the Star Tribune's LaVelle E. Neal III: "Since the offseason I’ve been doing everything I can to get this inside pitch down, and I’m getting better at it." But he added, “I’m not where I want to be." A look at his XBH spray chart below (courtesy MiLB.com) reflects a hitter who is extremely adept at launching to the opposite field and to straightaway center, but is less forceful on the pull side. Indeed, MiLB.com's Sam Dykstra notes that Larnach's 41.2% pull rate in 2019 was fifth-lowest among qualified Minnesota minor leaguers. Download attachment: larnachspray.jpg To be clear, this offensive profile is not a negative. Some of the greatest batsmen in the game are defined by their ability to hit a pitch where it's thrown. But as any Joe Mauer cynic will tell you, power output can suffer when one isn't able to aggressively punish those mistakes on the inner half. Larnach's overall mastery at the plate overshadowed any shortcomings in the XBH column, but when it comes to bat-handling and discipline, Joe Mauer he is not. He's also a pure corner guy in the field, so the same thing I wrote about our No. 9 prospect Rooker applies here: lower defensive value necessitates higher offensive value. If Larnach is to pan out as the upper-tier MLB outfielder we hope, standout power will be a necessary ingredient in the equation. He fared well in his first turn at Double-A, but from here on out, pitchers will only become more and more prone to attack his weaknesses. Can Larnach get where he wants to be with that down-and-in pitch? What's Next? This spring, Larnach is officially in Twins camp as a non-roster invite. A year ago, he was called over from the minor-league side for a Grapefruit League game at Hammond Stadium, and I'm pleased to say I was sitting right next to Seth Stohs in the press box when he caught this moment on film: It's fair to presume Larnach will make a fine impression in his more extended action this spring. But regardless, he is billed to open in the minors – probably back at Pensacola. With a strong start, he can earn a promotion to Rochester where he'd be reunited with his Cedar Rapids manager Toby Gardenhire. Then, it becomes a matter of a spot opening up for him at the big-league level. Nothing awaits in the immediate offing, but Larnach may well prove to be the type of player worth making room for, even if they don't have a "need" for him. Twins Daily 2020 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda, 3B/2B 19. Cole Sands, RHP 18. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF 17. Misael Urbina, OF 16. Edwar Colina, RP 15. Matt Canterino, RHP 14. Matt Wallner, OF 13. Wander Javier, SS 12. Gilberto Celestino, OF 11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 10. Blayne Enlow, RHP 9. Brent Rooker, OF 8. Keoni Cavaco, SS 7. Ryan Jeffers, C 6. Jhoan Duran, RHP 5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 4. Brusdar Graterol, RHP 3. Trevor Larnach, OF Check back tomorrow for #2! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Whew. What a Hot Stove home stretch. You can't rule anything out, but the Twins appear to have completed their offseason, with a late surge of activity crystallizing the front office's championship resolve. Let's get up to speed with a final rundown as spring training officially gets underway.One month ago, when we last checked in, the winter was dragging in a ho-hum direction. A recent Miguel Sano contract extension and some roster additions around the fringes were encouraging enough developments, but the big splash wasn't materializing. No marquee addition. No deviation from the narrative that long-term flexibility and internal pipeline matter above all else. Since then, the Twins have signed Josh Donaldson to a record-breaking contract and traded the organization's top pitching prospect for a veteran impact starter in Kenta Maeda. In doing so, the front office emphatically addressed multiple remaining areas of uncertainty, albeit at the cost of Brusdar Graterol, two top-100 picks in the coming draft, and around $100 million. Here's the roster and payroll projection with new details added: Donaldson's $21M salary, Maeda's $3.125 M (packaged with the rehabbing Hill, for the purposes of this table), and Jose Berrios's now-finalized figure after losing his arbitration case. Download attachment: roster29.png A HEIGHTENED PAYROLL CEILING The $138 million payroll projected above is already easily a new franchise record for the Twins. But the final tab for ownership could end up being significantly higher. Maeda has many incentives and escalators built into his base salary (via Spotrac): Innings Pitched Bonus: $250,000 each for 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200Games Started Bonus: $1M each for 15, 20l; $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32Hill, meanwhile, has plenty of kickers on top of his $3 million guarantee (also via Spotrac):$1 million for 5 games started or 25 innings$1M for 7 starts/35 innings$1M for 9 starts/45 innings$1.5M for 11 starts/55 innings$2M for 13 starts/65 innings$3M for 15 starts/75 inningsToss in reachable incentives for other players (including Donaldson), as well as the $1.6 million guarantee that NRI Jhoulys Chacin will trigger if (when?) he makes the team, and payroll could very well soar beyond $150 million. Last year, that would've ranked 11th in baseball. Even accounting for the $10 million they got back in the Maeda trade, the Twins are stepping up financially. It's officially time to kill the "Cheap Pohlads" narrative. BERRIOS TAKES A RARE 'L' As mentioned earlier, Berrios lost his arbitration case, so he'll make $4.025 million this year rather than the $4.4 million he sought. These hearings have been known to cause friction between players and teams in the past, but by all accounts Berrios was pushing for a higher number more out of precedent, as opposed to feeling offended by Minnesota's offer (which, according to an objective ruling, was fair). The possibility of an extension before Opening Day remains on the table, and I'm not sure this turn of events really affects that much one way or another. RELOADING THE SYSTEM There haven't been any further changes to the MLB coaching staff, which was rounded out by the addition of bench coach Mike Bell, but here again is the final group: Manager: Rocco BaldelliHitting Coach: Edgar VarelaHitting Coach: Rudy HernandezPitching Coach: Wes JohnsonBullpen Coach: Bob McClureBench Coach: Mike BellMLB Coach: Bill EversThe front office underwent some reconfiguration over the winter as well. Daniel Adler and Jeremy Zoll were both promoted to Assistant GM roles, Alex Hassan was named Director of Player Development (you can get to know him in Seth's profile), and Jeremy Raadt became Director of Baseball Systems. Several new minor-league instructors entered the fold – many plucked from forward-thinking college programs, much like Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson was a year ago. The value of having a two-headed monster in Derek Falvey and Thad Levine came into full focus over the winter, as the club filled numerous important roles throughout the baseball ops department while also executing the most ambitious and active offseason roster supplementation in franchise history. The infrastructure they continue to build together is nothing short of amazing. So it's a very good thing that both Falvey and Levine were extended through 2024 in November. GRADING THE OFFSEASON Honestly, how can you not mark them in the 'A' range? I might go with an A- because neither Donaldson nor Maeda is quite a slam-dunk fit, but in tandem the duo is arguably superior to signing Zack Wheeler, who offered the most plausible big-splash scenario for this team coming into the winter. By re-signing Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, the Twins retained two key pieces of a 101-win division champ, and by adding Donaldson and Maeda they built significantly upon that base. Meanwhile, the front office also made some nice additions at the fringes: Homer Bailey, Rich Hill and Jhoulys Chacin bring varying levels of low-stakes veteran intrigue to the rotation; Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard do the same in a well-stocked bullpen. This was a balanced, measured, aggressive offseason in which the Twins rolled with the punches, pivoted when Plan A failed, and hung tough in negotiations to get the deals they wanted. The team sent a message to the fanbase, and the league, by rocketing to new payroll heights and trading their top pitching prospect. Meanwhile, the Twins filled numerous openings throughout the coaching and baseball ops ranks, and established some long-term continuity both at the executive (Falvey and Levine) and player levels. Sano joins Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco with extensions; add in the four-year contracts for Donaldson and Maeda, and in the space of 12 months, the Twins have gone from zero multi-year commitments to having five players locked in through at least 2022. The Twins followed one of the most successful seasons ever with one of their most successful offseasons ever. What's next? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Who is the best pitching prospect in the Twins system? That answer has changed several times over the past few years as promising arms have jockeyed for top billing on this list and others. From Jose Berrios to Fernando Romero to Brusdar Graterol... Now, a new contender emerges.Position: RHP Age: 21 (DOB: 9/17/1998) 2019 Stats (A/A+): 93.2 IP, 2.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 12.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 ETA: 2022 2019 Ranking: NA National Top 100 Rankings BA: 95 | MLB: 86 | ATH: 61 | BP: NA What's To Like The numbers speak for themselves. You can see above, his sterling results from 2019, adding to a pro career in which Balazovic has compiled a 3.32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 rate with 16 homers allowed in 227.2 IP. Those are immaculate numbers for a guy who turned 21 last September and has always been young for his level. He dominates in the most straightforward and reliable of fashions: attacking the zone and making hitters miss. Among players to throw 20+ innings in the Midwest League, Balazovic's 39.8% K-rate in four starts there ranked third (the two higher numbers were from players three and four years older). After a very quick promotion to the Florida State League, Balazovic's K-rate dropped a bit to 32.8%, but that was good for third among pitchers with 50+ IP. He achieves this level of domination in the most straightforward and reliable of fashions: commanding a mid-90s fastball and mixing it expertly with the offspeeds. Balazovic is a technician, riding a consistent delivery and deep release point to keep opponents from finding any kind of rhythm. His slider and developing changeup aren't viewed as especially great pitches on their own, but the 6-foot-5 righty plays them up significantly with his power fastball and tunneling technique. In , Twins Daily's Tom Froemming shares highlights from one of Balazovic's better 2019 performances – a four-frame outing fresh off his appearance in the Futures Game – and Tom breaks down his deceptive pitch sequences in action. While this outing came in relief, due to a disruption in his normal schedule, all but three of the former fifth-rounder's 31 appearances since reaching full-season ball have been starts. And this is a key factor that differentiates Balazovic from other big arms like Jhoan Duran at the top end our prospect list: he seems more likely than any other to remain a starting pitcher long-term. It's apparent enough from his build: a big and sturdy guy with broad shoulders and smooth mechanics. His changeup is coming along well enough to project as a viable MLB offering. For these reasons and more, Patrick Reusse recently wrote in a Star Tribune profile that Balazovic "has starter written all over him." Starter with colossal upside. A crucial asset indeed. What's Left To Work On A huge year lies ahead for Balazovic. While all signs have mostly been good since he joined the organization as a 17-year-old out of high school in 2016, he's got a couple big hurdles left to clear. First, there's the high minors. According to Reusse's column, the Twins are gearing up to start Balazovic at Class-AA Pensacola this season, and he'll find the competition there much stiffer after mowing down Single-A batters last summer. Sharpening his breaking-ball command and refining the changeup will be essential to maintaining his results in the upper tiers. Secondly, there's proving his durability. While he possesses the aforementioned qualities of a starting pitcher, Balazovic needs to make good on the field. He missed time in 2018 due to nerve irritation in his elbow, limiting him to 62 innings at Cedar Rapids, and in 2019 he totaled just 94 innings as his workload was stringently managed. (After May 25th, Balazovic had only one start where he pitched into the sixth or threw even 90 pitches.) For comparison, Berrios threw 103 and 140 innings in his first two full pro seasons, at the same ages. It's smart to be cautious with such a critical young arm, but at some point – probably this year – the Twins are going to need to loosen the reins and stretch Balavovic out, with deeper outings and a program that puts him on track for 150 innings at least. What's Next If Reusse's projection is accurate, Balazovic will open in Double-A at age 21, which is a fairly aggressive but well-warranted assignment. Last year only four pitchers 21 or younger logged 100+ innings in the Southern League, which is the realistic aspiration for Balazovic. His workload baseline doesn't really set up for him to be pitching past August, so the idea of Balazovic impacting the big-league club down the stretch may not be feasible, barring a scenario like Graterol's last year where early missed time leaves Balazovic with innings left to throw toward the end. Of course, that'd hardly be ideal, in the sense that his durability remains an open question. The best-case scenario for Balazovic this year would seem to be a fully healthy, productive, and convincing summer in the Pensacola rotation, perhaps punctuated by a late promotion to Triple-A cementing his readiness to contend for an MLB job in 2021. Twins Daily 2020 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda, 3B/2B 19. Cole Sands, RHP 18. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF 17. Misael Urbina, OF 16. Edwar Colina, RP 15. Matt Canterino, RHP 14. Matt Wallner, OF 13. Wander Javier, SS 12. Gilberto Celestino, OF 11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 10. Blayne Enlow, RHP 9. Brent Rooker, OF 8. Keoni Cavaco, SS 7. Ryan Jeffers, C 6. Jhoan Duran, RHP 5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP Check back tomorrow for #4! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Spoiler: Graterol will still be on our list, which started rolling out before the trade was announced. So that might help a bit with the math. Another spoiler: Rortvedt finished #21 in our rankings. So if you remove Graterol now that he's gone, BR is in the Top 20.