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You're Going To Love Watching Baseball This Year
Nick Nelson replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I wish I could get on board with this line of thinking. But for me, it starts and ends here: MLB and the players can influence the timeline, but not control it. This is bigger than baseball, and bigger than money, no matter how much they want their football fields of cash. -
The Show Must Go On: Rising Power
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Option 2: Press "Like This" on this comment (or voice your support below) if you want to stick with Randy Dobnak in the rotation and Jordan Balazovic in the bullpen. -
The Show Must Go On: Rising Power
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Option 1: Press "Like This" on this comment (or voice your support below) if you want to promote Jordan Balazovic into the rotation while moving Randy Dobnak back into the long relief role where he had more success. -
In our ongoing interactive simulated Twins 2020 season, another strong 10-game run puts the squad within striking distance of first place, while the MLB draft approaches and a rookie slugger enters the fold. Read on for updates and open-ended decisions you can help dictate.To get caught up on what we're doing here, you can check out the introductory post in the series for an explanation of the premise and setup. But the quick version is this: We're playing a progressive simulated Twins season on MLB The Show 20 on PS4, and y'all are helping guide the ship. In each installment I'll update you on what's happened since the last, and put at least one key decision up for vote. Date In Game: 5/21/20 Team Record: 30-20 Leading OPS: Miguel Sano (1.001 in 159 AB) Leading ERA (SP): Kenta Maeda (2.37 in 60.2 IP) Leading ERA (RP): Taylor Rogers (1.46 in 23.2 IP) LATEST RESULTS (7-3) Gm 41 @ DET: W 5-2 (Odorizzi 8.1 IP, 1 ER, W) Gm 42 @ DET: W 5-4 (Rooker 3-for-4) Gm 43 @ DET: W 9-4 (Astudillo 2-for-5, 3 RBI) Gm 44 @ DET: L 2-1 (Dobnak 5 IP, 1 ER) Gm 45 @ CLE: L 4-2 (Sano 3-for-6) Gm 46 @ CLE: W 3-2 (Odorizzi 6 IP, 1 ER, W) Gm 47 @ CLE: W 6-3 (Garver 4-for-5, 3 RBI) Gm 48 vs BAL: W 6-5 (Polanco walk-off 2-R single) Gm 49 vs BAL: L 10-7 (Garver 2 HR, 4 RBI) Gm 50 vs BAL: W 6-4 (Kepler, Rosario, Astudillo HR) AL CENTRAL STANDINGS Download attachment: alcstandings521.jpeg THE RUNDOWN Our last update shared numbers at the season's one-quarter milestone, and laid out three options for roster upgrades. Here are the vote tallies as I counted 'em: Replace Randy Dobnak with Jordan Balazovic as fifth starter (8 votes)Replace Jimmy Kerrigan with Brent Rooker on the bench (12 votes)Replace Devin Smeltzer with Fernando Romero in the bullpen (13 votes)There was enough support for the latter two that I chose to move forward with both. Dobnak hung onto his fifth starter spot. For now. A very nice 10-game stretch ensued for our Twins, who are really coming into their own as they now sit 10 games above .500, suddenly withing 2.5 of Cleveland for first place. Our latest slate featured some riveting extra-inning affairs, a thrilling comeback, and an impressive rookie debut. Here's a quick rundown. In Detroit we took three of four on the backing of some strong pitching and quality hitting. Rooker made his first big-league start in the second game, batting seventh and playing left. He went 3-for-4 with a double in the debut. Download attachment: rookerswing.jpeg All in all, Rooker is slashing .235/.316/.353 with a pair of doubles through his first 19 plate appearances as a Twin. In the series finale against Detroit, Dobnak reaffirmed the decision to stick with him in the rotation, tossing five innings of one-run ball, but the Twins offense was shut down by Daniel Norris in a 2-1 loss. Then, it was off to Cleveland for the biggest series of the season yet. Things opened up in dramatic fashion. Jose Berrios and Mike Clevinger dueled, then turned it over to the relievers, who kept the stalemate going. A 2-2 tie carried into extra innings, where the two teams traded zeroes until Zack Littell yielded a two-run walk-off homer to Carlos Santana in the bottom of the 13th. Fortunately, our Twins battled back to win games two and three, making up key ground in the standings. Then it was back home to face the Orioles. In the first game of this series, the Twins fell behind 4-2 when Homer Bailey coughed up four runs in the fifth. Jordan Balazovic took over and kept the game in hand with one run allowed over 4 1/3 frames. Entering the bottom of the ninth down 5-2, our Twins needed some magic. Here's the game log from that half inning: [LHP Paul Fry replaces RHP Michael Givens for BAL]Miguel Sano reaches 1B on error by 3B Renato Nunez.Eddie Rosario walks, Sano to 2B.Nelson Cruz strikes out swinging.Marwin Gonzalez singles to left. Sano to 3B, Rosario to 2B.Max Kepler singles to left. Sano and Rosario score, Gonzalez to 2B.[LHP Tanner Scott replaces LHP Paul Fry for BAL][Mitch Garver pinch-hits for Brent Rooker]Mitch Garver walks. Gonzalez to 3B, Kepler to 2B.Byron Buxton grounds into fielder's choice, Gonzalez out at home. Kepler to 3B, Garver to 2B.[Jorge Polanco pinch-hits for Luis Arraez]Jorge Polanco singles to right. Kepler and Garver score.Hip-hip, Jorge! It was Polanco's second walk-off hit of the season, and in a pinch-hit appearance with two outs to seal a big comeback, no less. Gotta love it. Unfortunately Minnesota couldn't ride its momentum in the next game, where Dobak (3 IP, 5 ER) was outperformed by ... groan ... Kohl Stewart, who picked up his first win of the season, moving to 1-7 with five innings of one-run ball. But the Twins came back to finish this latest stretch with a win behind Berrios, keyed by Kepler's three-run homer. As we head into the final 10 days of May, we're within two weeks of the MLB draft. I've mostly got scouting on autopilot in the game, but will check in with y'all to gather some thoughts in the next installment as we get ready to recruit some new (fictional) young talent into the system. WHO'S HOT Jorge Polanco of course had the big knock and he has generally been playing very well, with his slash line up to .290/.381/.414 on the year. Mitch Garver was red-hot in this 10-game stretch, going 11-for-26 (.423) with three homers and nine RBIs. Luis Arraez collected 10 hits to push his season average up to .321, which ranks eighth-best in the American League. His .428 OBP ranks fifth. Eddie Rosario drove in eight more runs; his 37 RBIs are fourth-most in the AL. Meanwhile, Jake Odorizzi (2 ER in 14 1/3 IP over 2 starts) and Kenta Maeda (2 ER in 11 IP over 2 starts) continue to do their things. Here's the current AL leaderboard for ERA: Download attachment: era_leaderboard_521.jpeg In the bullpen, Tyler Clippard (1.69 ERA), Tyler Duffey (1.99) and Taylor Rogers (1.46) continue to lead the charge for a mostly effective unit. WHO'S NOT Nelson Cruz has run into a cool spell, batting just .186 over his past 10 games, although he did chip in a couple more homers. Josh Donaldson too has hit a skid, batting .195 in nine starts and dropping his season OPS by nearly 50 points. It says something that our offense can still perform, and the team can still win three straight series, with these two linchpins in the lineup lagging. Homer Bailey gave up eight earned runs in his 9 2/3 innings, raising his ERA to 5.44, but he does have a 5-1 record thanks to his run support. Randy Dobnak has yet to complete more than five innings, and has gotten there only once in four starts. DECISION TIME: DETERMINING BALAZOVIC'S ROLE We chose not to swap in Balazovic for Dobnak as fifth starter last week, but there was clear support for the idea and I think it's worth revisiting. Dobnak allowed six earned runs over eight innings in his latest two starts. The success he was enjoying as a reliever has evaporated since the switch to starting. Balazovic made only one relief appearance, but it was his best of the season: 4 1/3 innings, one run, five strikeouts, one walk. His strong work in relief of a short Bailey set the stage for a dramatic comeback win. As we've mentioned, Balazovic's morale is currently dragging down his player rating because he feels miscast in his role. Should we swap the two? Vote in the comments section. COMING UP 5/21: vs CWS 5/22: vs CWS 5/23: vs CWS 5/24: vs CWS 5/26: @ NYY 5/27: @ NYY 5/28: @ NYY 5/29: @ CWS 5/30: @ CWS 5/31: @ CWS 6/1: @ CWS PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS Part 1: We Can Build This Thing Together (0-0) Part 2: 10 Games In, 6 Games Back (4-6) Part 3: Roaring Back (11-9) Part 4: Over the Hill (17-13) Part 5: Checking In at the Quarter Point (23-17) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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To get caught up on what we're doing here, you can check out the introductory post in the series for an explanation of the premise and setup. But the quick version is this: We're playing a progressive simulated Twins season on MLB The Show 20 on PS4, and y'all are helping guide the ship. In each installment I'll update you on what's happened since the last, and put at least one key decision up for vote. Date In Game: 5/21/20 Team Record: 30-20 Leading OPS: Miguel Sano (1.001 in 159 AB) Leading ERA (SP): Kenta Maeda (2.37 in 60.2 IP) Leading ERA (RP): Taylor Rogers (1.46 in 23.2 IP) LATEST RESULTS (7-3) Gm 41 @ DET: W 5-2 (Odorizzi 8.1 IP, 1 ER, W) Gm 42 @ DET: W 5-4 (Rooker 3-for-4) Gm 43 @ DET: W 9-4 (Astudillo 2-for-5, 3 RBI) Gm 44 @ DET: L 2-1 (Dobnak 5 IP, 1 ER) Gm 45 @ CLE: L 4-2 (Sano 3-for-6) Gm 46 @ CLE: W 3-2 (Odorizzi 6 IP, 1 ER, W) Gm 47 @ CLE: W 6-3 (Garver 4-for-5, 3 RBI) Gm 48 vs BAL: W 6-5 (Polanco walk-off 2-R single) Gm 49 vs BAL: L 10-7 (Garver 2 HR, 4 RBI) Gm 50 vs BAL: W 6-4 (Kepler, Rosario, Astudillo HR) AL CENTRAL STANDINGS THE RUNDOWN Our last update shared numbers at the season's one-quarter milestone, and laid out three options for roster upgrades. Here are the vote tallies as I counted 'em: Replace Randy Dobnak with Jordan Balazovic as fifth starter (8 votes) Replace Jimmy Kerrigan with Brent Rooker on the bench (12 votes) Replace Devin Smeltzer with Fernando Romero in the bullpen (13 votes) There was enough support for the latter two that I chose to move forward with both. Dobnak hung onto his fifth starter spot. For now. A very nice 10-game stretch ensued for our Twins, who are really coming into their own as they now sit 10 games above .500, suddenly withing 2.5 of Cleveland for first place. Our latest slate featured some riveting extra-inning affairs, a thrilling comeback, and an impressive rookie debut. Here's a quick rundown. In Detroit we took three of four on the backing of some strong pitching and quality hitting. Rooker made his first big-league start in the second game, batting seventh and playing left. He went 3-for-4 with a double in the debut. All in all, Rooker is slashing .235/.316/.353 with a pair of doubles through his first 19 plate appearances as a Twin. In the series finale against Detroit, Dobnak reaffirmed the decision to stick with him in the rotation, tossing five innings of one-run ball, but the Twins offense was shut down by Daniel Norris in a 2-1 loss. Then, it was off to Cleveland for the biggest series of the season yet. Things opened up in dramatic fashion. Jose Berrios and Mike Clevinger dueled, then turned it over to the relievers, who kept the stalemate going. A 2-2 tie carried into extra innings, where the two teams traded zeroes until Zack Littell yielded a two-run walk-off homer to Carlos Santana in the bottom of the 13th. Fortunately, our Twins battled back to win games two and three, making up key ground in the standings. Then it was back home to face the Orioles. In the first game of this series, the Twins fell behind 4-2 when Homer Bailey coughed up four runs in the fifth. Jordan Balazovic took over and kept the game in hand with one run allowed over 4 1/3 frames. Entering the bottom of the ninth down 5-2, our Twins needed some magic. Here's the game log from that half inning: [LHP Paul Fry replaces RHP Michael Givens for BAL] Miguel Sano reaches 1B on error by 3B Renato Nunez. Eddie Rosario walks, Sano to 2B. Nelson Cruz strikes out swinging. Marwin Gonzalez singles to left. Sano to 3B, Rosario to 2B. Max Kepler singles to left. Sano and Rosario score, Gonzalez to 2B. [LHP Tanner Scott replaces LHP Paul Fry for BAL] [Mitch Garver pinch-hits for Brent Rooker] Mitch Garver walks. Gonzalez to 3B, Kepler to 2B. Byron Buxton grounds into fielder's choice, Gonzalez out at home. Kepler to 3B, Garver to 2B. [Jorge Polanco pinch-hits for Luis Arraez] Jorge Polanco singles to right. Kepler and Garver score. Hip-hip, Jorge! It was Polanco's second walk-off hit of the season, and in a pinch-hit appearance with two outs to seal a big comeback, no less. Gotta love it. Unfortunately Minnesota couldn't ride its momentum in the next game, where Dobak (3 IP, 5 ER) was outperformed by ... groan ... Kohl Stewart, who picked up his first win of the season, moving to 1-7 with five innings of one-run ball. But the Twins came back to finish this latest stretch with a win behind Berrios, keyed by Kepler's three-run homer. As we head into the final 10 days of May, we're within two weeks of the MLB draft. I've mostly got scouting on autopilot in the game, but will check in with y'all to gather some thoughts in the next installment as we get ready to recruit some new (fictional) young talent into the system. WHO'S HOT Jorge Polanco of course had the big knock and he has generally been playing very well, with his slash line up to .290/.381/.414 on the year. Mitch Garver was red-hot in this 10-game stretch, going 11-for-26 (.423) with three homers and nine RBIs. Luis Arraez collected 10 hits to push his season average up to .321, which ranks eighth-best in the American League. His .428 OBP ranks fifth. Eddie Rosario drove in eight more runs; his 37 RBIs are fourth-most in the AL. Meanwhile, Jake Odorizzi (2 ER in 14 1/3 IP over 2 starts) and Kenta Maeda (2 ER in 11 IP over 2 starts) continue to do their things. Here's the current AL leaderboard for ERA: In the bullpen, Tyler Clippard (1.69 ERA), Tyler Duffey (1.99) and Taylor Rogers (1.46) continue to lead the charge for a mostly effective unit. WHO'S NOT Nelson Cruz has run into a cool spell, batting just .186 over his past 10 games, although he did chip in a couple more homers. Josh Donaldson too has hit a skid, batting .195 in nine starts and dropping his season OPS by nearly 50 points. It says something that our offense can still perform, and the team can still win three straight series, with these two linchpins in the lineup lagging. Homer Bailey gave up eight earned runs in his 9 2/3 innings, raising his ERA to 5.44, but he does have a 5-1 record thanks to his run support. Randy Dobnak has yet to complete more than five innings, and has gotten there only once in four starts. DECISION TIME: DETERMINING BALAZOVIC'S ROLE We chose not to swap in Balazovic for Dobnak as fifth starter last week, but there was clear support for the idea and I think it's worth revisiting. Dobnak allowed six earned runs over eight innings in his latest two starts. The success he was enjoying as a reliever has evaporated since the switch to starting. Balazovic made only one relief appearance, but it was his best of the season: 4 1/3 innings, one run, five strikeouts, one walk. His strong work in relief of a short Bailey set the stage for a dramatic comeback win. As we've mentioned, Balazovic's morale is currently dragging down his player rating because he feels miscast in his role. Should we swap the two? Vote in the comments section. COMING UP 5/21: vs CWS 5/22: vs CWS 5/23: vs CWS 5/24: vs CWS 5/26: @ NYY 5/27: @ NYY 5/28: @ NYY 5/29: @ CWS 5/30: @ CWS 5/31: @ CWS 6/1: @ CWS PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS Part 1: We Can Build This Thing Together (0-0) Part 2: 10 Games In, 6 Games Back (4-6) Part 3: Roaring Back (11-9) Part 4: Over the Hill (17-13) Part 5: Checking In at the Quarter Point (23-17) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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The fans are not really my primary concern. What about the players who will have their career legacies and future earnings dictated by what happens in this sideshow? What happens when a pitcher catches the virus in the clubhouse and has to miss several weeks while getting well and quarantining, or gets hurt because he's thrown completely out of the routine that has constituted his entire life in baseball, and then has his future value impacted by it? The example of the empty-stadium game in Baltimore, and how players reacted to it, is very pertinent in my mind. Players hated it. Eaton later attributed his team's loss to the weird environment.
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If Major League Baseball is going to have any kind of season in 2020, it needs to be a novelty exhibition. Trying to put anything meaningful on the record makes no sense and is likely infeasible. This is a hard truth, but one we sadly must come to grips with it.Staring down the incomprehensible collective profit loss that a cancelled season would entail, MLB and its Players Association have been hard at work trying to hammer out a salvage scenario. The latest reported example would call for a radical realignment of league structure, based on spring training site geography, and would have Minnesota playing in a "Grapefruit League South" division with Tampa, Atlanta, Boston, and Baltimore. The sheer logistical hurdles of making something like this happen, in a way that ensures player and public safety, are monumental. Stephanie Apstein's recent writeup for Sports Illustrated, Bursting the Bubble: Why Sports Aren't Coming Back Soon, spells it all out in sobering terms. She spoke with top scientific experts and arrived at a grim conclusion. The bottom line: Many of these ideas sound good in theory, but when you really think through the litany of practical implications, it's almost impossible to envision any of them working. From my view, the only way for something to actually materialize, as currently discussed, would be a broad public movement toward laxening protective measures. Or, for extreme exceptions to be made specifically for Major League Baseball. Given the economic and financial factors at play, neither of these things is out of the question. Personally, I don't see it. But let's say one of them gives. Or, a plan is architected that covers every contingency, and gains approval from public health authorities and all parties involved. One really must ask themself: If manufacturing a season requires warping the league's very fabric, and forcing players to perform (with future earnings on the line!) under these incredibly awkward circumstances, while unavoidably creating public safety concerns ... is it really worthwhile? Some fans will say, sure. I get it, and I've certainly had my own internal debates. I'm as desperate for the return of baseball as anyone, I assure you. But then I start thinking about the actual act of watching games played in empty spring training stadiums, against faux division rivals, in a condensed and warped season schedule. Players hitting home runs and silently rounding the bases, before returning to the plate where they're unable to high-five in celebration. I think about the notion of these results – and whatever champion is crowned – having legitimacy in the historical record of the game. Not just that, but many players having their careers completely altered and upended by the process. To date, there has been one major-league game played before a completely empty stadium. It was in Baltimore on April 29th, 2015, amidst a tumultuous time for the city. Earlier that month, Freddie Gray died while under police detainment, sparking riots and unrest that consumed all security and police resources required to run a traditional pro sporting event. Dan Hayes, the current Twins beat writer for The Athletic who covered the visiting White Sox back then, tweeted the other day: "I was at that game as a reporter. It was awkward. Players will not want to play in that environment. You hear everything." While the current situation is obviously very different in nature, this reflective quote from former Sox outfielder Adam Eaton (via Chicago Tribune) about participating in the game rings now with a very acute relevance: "There was a lot of weight on your heart because of what was going on in the city ... I guarantee everybody in this clubhouse at the time and over there was like, 'We have to play this game, but at the same time, there are bigger struggles going on, and baseball is not the biggest focus.' … It was a very, very weird feeling." It's true that MLB now has the advantage of being able to plan and build for this type of setup, but clearly there are "very, very weird" dynamics in place as a global health crisis ravages the world and death counts escalate. I'm sure many people reading this disagree on fundamental premise – either because the prevailing science and projections regarding COVID-19 are overblown, or because the need to return to a societal norm outweighs the unchecked impact of the virus. I'm not saying either of those viewpoints is wrong. I don't know. Plenty of major-leaguers, eager to get back to playing and earning paychecks, lean that way, no doubt. But not all of them do. And more pertinently, not all are keen on uprooting their lives, separating from their families, and subjecting their career legacies to this strange scenario in the name of making more money. Many of the game's biggest stars (and consequentially its most financially secure) are in that group, I'd wager. Without the stars, it doesn't work. In fact, without virtually EVERYONE, it doesn't work. And that's where the practicality eludes me. Anyone participating would need to to opt in; this isn't like a typical MLBPA decision where members must follow the will of consensus and leadership. There are explicit dangers and substantive sacrifices involved. What happens when (not if) the first player – like, say, Brewers starter Brett Anderson, who tweeted "It begins and ends right here" of the clause that requires indefinite separation from families – takes a hardline stance? Dominoes will fall. In a recent article for ESPN, reporters asked a wide variety of players around the league for their input on these proposals, and to a man, nearly everyone expressed strong skepticism if not blatant opposition. A few samplings: "When I think about being isolated for four to five months without being able to see my family, I don't think that would go through at all, personally.""Honestly, my reaction would be I'm not OK with being separated from my family in the middle of a pandemic.""You get into these certain scenarios just to play, and then at the end of the day, is it worth it?""Are you gonna put people at risk just so you can be kings of the sports world for a couple of months?""It just seems like a lot of stuff. I mean, I love the game, but you're changing it too much. Everyone is trying to make money.""I think it's an absurd proposal. If that's literally what it's going to take to start the season, then I don't see how it's happening."It seems clear that portrayals of robust union support for the avenues being discussed are overstated, as affirmed by one union source in a story on NBC News, who said, "We listened. But the idea that we had embraced that plan is totally inaccurate." Perhaps universal participation is not required to proceed with one of these proposals, but again, the idea of playing meaningful games with missing pieces becomes highly problematic. Is it really an MLB season if there's no Mike Trout? What if one team has a disproportionate number of players withdraw? How is it fair to them or their fans to weigh these results and outcomes as legitimate? Taking everything into account, I'll close by circling back to my introductory contention, which hopefully offers a glimmer of optimism: "If Major League Baseball is going to have any kind of season in 2020, it needs to be a novelty exhibition." While I see no path to conducting a season of record, the Florida/Arizona sideshow ideas become far more plausible if we treat them like a World Baseball Classic style exhibition tournament. Players can individually opt in (and maybe almost all of them will!), but with the understanding that this unique season, and their performances within, will not be imprinted in Major League Baseball's rich historical tapestry. The lessened need to adhere to the sport's stringent procedures, along with fewer participants reducing the scale, makes such a proposition far more viable in my eyes. Still a stretch, for the reasons covered in Apstein's piece for SI, but more viable. If you ask me, that's now where we should be setting our sights as hopeful fans, yearning for baseball's beautiful distraction. I take zero pleasure in saying so, but the notion of a 2020 MLB season worthy of adding to the official record is already off the table. Click here to view the article
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It's Time to Give Up the Ghost of a 2020 MLB Season of Record
Nick Nelson posted an article in Twins
Staring down the incomprehensible collective profit loss that a cancelled season would entail, MLB and its Players Association have been hard at work trying to hammer out a salvage scenario. The latest reported example would call for a radical realignment of league structure, based on spring training site geography, and would have Minnesota playing in a "Grapefruit League South" division with Tampa, Atlanta, Boston, and Baltimore. The sheer logistical hurdles of making something like this happen, in a way that ensures player and public safety, are monumental. Stephanie Apstein's recent writeup for Sports Illustrated, Bursting the Bubble: Why Sports Aren't Coming Back Soon, spells it all out in sobering terms. She spoke with top scientific experts and arrived at a grim conclusion. The bottom line: Many of these ideas sound good in theory, but when you really think through the litany of practical implications, it's almost impossible to envision any of them working. From my view, the only way for something to actually materialize, as currently discussed, would be a broad public movement toward laxening protective measures. Or, for extreme exceptions to be made specifically for Major League Baseball. Given the economic and financial factors at play, neither of these things is out of the question. Personally, I don't see it. But let's say one of them gives. Or, a plan is architected that covers every contingency, and gains approval from public health authorities and all parties involved. One really must ask themself: If manufacturing a season requires warping the league's very fabric, and forcing players to perform (with future earnings on the line!) under these incredibly awkward circumstances, while unavoidably creating public safety concerns ... is it really worthwhile? Some fans will say, sure. I get it, and I've certainly had my own internal debates. I'm as desperate for the return of baseball as anyone, I assure you. But then I start thinking about the actual act of watching games played in empty spring training stadiums, against faux division rivals, in a condensed and warped season schedule. Players hitting home runs and silently rounding the bases, before returning to the plate where they're unable to high-five in celebration. I think about the notion of these results – and whatever champion is crowned – having legitimacy in the historical record of the game. Not just that, but many players having their careers completely altered and upended by the process. To date, there has been one major-league game played before a completely empty stadium. It was in Baltimore on April 29th, 2015, amidst a tumultuous time for the city. Earlier that month, Freddie Gray died while under police detainment, sparking riots and unrest that consumed all security and police resources required to run a traditional pro sporting event. Dan Hayes, the current Twins beat writer for The Athletic who covered the visiting White Sox back then, tweeted the other day: "I was at that game as a reporter. It was awkward. Players will not want to play in that environment. You hear everything." While the current situation is obviously very different in nature, this reflective quote from former Sox outfielder Adam Eaton (via Chicago Tribune) about participating in the game rings now with a very acute relevance: "There was a lot of weight on your heart because of what was going on in the city ... I guarantee everybody in this clubhouse at the time and over there was like, 'We have to play this game, but at the same time, there are bigger struggles going on, and baseball is not the biggest focus.' … It was a very, very weird feeling." It's true that MLB now has the advantage of being able to plan and build for this type of setup, but clearly there are "very, very weird" dynamics in place as a global health crisis ravages the world and death counts escalate. I'm sure many people reading this disagree on fundamental premise – either because the prevailing science and projections regarding COVID-19 are overblown, or because the need to return to a societal norm outweighs the unchecked impact of the virus. I'm not saying either of those viewpoints is wrong. I don't know. Plenty of major-leaguers, eager to get back to playing and earning paychecks, lean that way, no doubt. But not all of them do. And more pertinently, not all are keen on uprooting their lives, separating from their families, and subjecting their career legacies to this strange scenario in the name of making more money. Many of the game's biggest stars (and consequentially its most financially secure) are in that group, I'd wager. Without the stars, it doesn't work. In fact, without virtually EVERYONE, it doesn't work. And that's where the practicality eludes me. Anyone participating would need to to opt in; this isn't like a typical MLBPA decision where members must follow the will of consensus and leadership. There are explicit dangers and substantive sacrifices involved. What happens when (not if) the first player – like, say, Brewers starter Brett Anderson, who tweeted "It begins and ends right here" of the clause that requires indefinite separation from families – takes a hardline stance? Dominoes will fall. In a recent article for ESPN, reporters asked a wide variety of players around the league for their input on these proposals, and to a man, nearly everyone expressed strong skepticism if not blatant opposition. A few samplings: "When I think about being isolated for four to five months without being able to see my family, I don't think that would go through at all, personally." "Honestly, my reaction would be I'm not OK with being separated from my family in the middle of a pandemic." "You get into these certain scenarios just to play, and then at the end of the day, is it worth it?" "Are you gonna put people at risk just so you can be kings of the sports world for a couple of months?" "It just seems like a lot of stuff. I mean, I love the game, but you're changing it too much. Everyone is trying to make money." "I think it's an absurd proposal. If that's literally what it's going to take to start the season, then I don't see how it's happening." It seems clear that portrayals of robust union support for the avenues being discussed are overstated, as affirmed by one union source in a story on NBC News, who said, "We listened. But the idea that we had embraced that plan is totally inaccurate." Perhaps universal participation is not required to proceed with one of these proposals, but again, the idea of playing meaningful games with missing pieces becomes highly problematic. Is it really an MLB season if there's no Mike Trout? What if one team has a disproportionate number of players withdraw? How is it fair to them or their fans to weigh these results and outcomes as legitimate? Taking everything into account, I'll close by circling back to my introductory contention, which hopefully offers a glimmer of optimism: "If Major League Baseball is going to have any kind of season in 2020, it needs to be a novelty exhibition." While I see no path to conducting a season of record, the Florida/Arizona sideshow ideas become far more plausible if we treat them like a World Baseball Classic style exhibition tournament. Players can individually opt in (and maybe almost all of them will!), but with the understanding that this unique season, and their performances within, will not be imprinted in Major League Baseball's rich historical tapestry. The lessened need to adhere to the sport's stringent procedures, along with fewer participants reducing the scale, makes such a proposition far more viable in my eyes. Still a stretch, for the reasons covered in Apstein's piece for SI, but more viable. If you ask me, that's now where we should be setting our sights as hopeful fans, yearning for baseball's beautiful distraction. I take zero pleasure in saying so, but the notion of a 2020 MLB season worthy of adding to the official record is already off the table. -
Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm almost positive Romero has a fourth option. No one's giving up on Duran as a starter. He was simply mentioned as one of the only arms in the system with a feasible chance of replacing what Graterol brought.- 11 replies
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Last year when I previewed this unit, a lack of proven depth was the overarching story. Today, we'll be unpacking a 180-degree turnaround. The emergence of Minnesota's bullpen as a top-tier group was one of the 2019 season's most astonishing, and promising, developments.Projected Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo, Zach Littell, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak Depth: Fernando Romero, Sean Poppen, Danny Coulombe, Ryan Garton, Blaine Hardy, Cory Gearrin, Caleb Thielbar Prospects: Edwar Colina, Dakota Chalmers, Jake Reed THE GOOD September 14th was perhaps the most memorable day of the 2019 season. On this date, the Twins swept a doubleheader in Cleveland, effectively putting the division on ice. While Miguel Sano's splashy grand slam dominated the highlight reels, there's no question who was the star of this show: Minnesota's blossoming bullpen. The games were "started" by Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe, and featured a total of nine different pitchers deployed by Rocco Baldelli. Smeltzer and Thorpe combined with Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey, Sergio Romo, Taylor Rogers, Cody Stashak, Brusdar Graterol and Trevor May to hold Cleveland to five runs on 13 hits in 18 innings. The seven pitchers who appeared as relievers totaled 14 strikeouts and zero walks. This immaculate collective performance epitomized the bullpen's brilliant second half. Even with top deadline addition Sam Dyson completely fizzling, the Twins relief corps ranked third among MLB teams in fWAR after July 31st, trailing only the Yankees and Rays. While the closer Rogers continued to excel, he was surrounded by strong performers, with May, Duffey, Romo, and Littell all contributing in major ways. Meanwhile, Stashak and Graterol joined the fray as impact rookies. Graterol won't return, but everyone else will, along with waiver gamble Matt Wisler and free agent acquisition Tyler Clippard, whose reverse splits make him the weapon Baldelli needs against southpaws. Minnesota is about seven-deep with quality big-league relievers, and that's before you account for long-relief options such as Thorpe and Smeltzer, or ready-to-go reinforcements such as Sean Poppen and Fernando Romero. Even with the inherent volatility of MLB bullpens, and the inevitability of at least a few injuries, this relief unit is poised to be one of the American League's finest. THE BAD Graterol is a big loss. While he was the least established among this entire crop, he undoubtedly offered the most upside, which was set to be unleashed after the team's acknowledgement he was slated for a relief role in 2020. The Twins bolstered their rotation by trading the young flamethrower for Kenta Maeda, but there's a clear trade-off in bullpen caliber. By no means were the Twins counting on Graterol to be an essential fixture in this year's bullpen, but that was the beauty of his presence: a total bonus and a wild-card, with serious "ace in the hole" potential in this season and many to come. It may not be felt as strongly since we were only beginning to acclimate ourselves to the idea of him as a long-term relief pitcher, but make no mistake: Graterol's absence creates a spacious void in the bullpen's outlook going forward. The Twins will have to hope a rebounding Romero or an emerging Jhoan Duran can fill it in some way. Ultimately, the most evident weakness in Minnesota's bullpen is a lack of established track records beyond Rogers. As good as May, Duffey, and Littell were last year, none had a substantive history of MLB relief success prior. Wisler is still searching for his first above-average season in the majors. Signing Clippard and Romo helps in this regard, of course, but they are middle relief types. The Twins are counting heavily on May and Duffey to repeat their dominant performances from 2019. There's no specific reason to think either one won't but... relievers are relievers. THE BOTTOM LINE Bullpen is undoubtedly a differentiating asset for the Twins heading into 2020, as they've retained all the top performers in a unit that progressively emerged last year as one of the league's best and deepest. Rogers ranks among the position's elite, and is surrounded by a couple setup men who could easily join the closer in this distinction. Reliable options abound for Baldelli, who shouldn't find himself running short on trusted relievers barring an abundance of injuries and setbacks. Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Right Field Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Projected Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo, Zach Littell, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak Depth: Fernando Romero, Sean Poppen, Danny Coulombe, Ryan Garton, Blaine Hardy, Cory Gearrin, Caleb Thielbar Prospects: Edwar Colina, Dakota Chalmers, Jake Reed THE GOOD September 14th was perhaps the most memorable day of the 2019 season. On this date, the Twins swept a doubleheader in Cleveland, effectively putting the division on ice. While Miguel Sano's splashy grand slam dominated the highlight reels, there's no question who was the star of this show: Minnesota's blossoming bullpen. The games were "started" by Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe, and featured a total of nine different pitchers deployed by Rocco Baldelli. Smeltzer and Thorpe combined with Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey, Sergio Romo, Taylor Rogers, Cody Stashak, Brusdar Graterol and Trevor May to hold Cleveland to five runs on 13 hits in 18 innings. The seven pitchers who appeared as relievers totaled 14 strikeouts and zero walks. This immaculate collective performance epitomized the bullpen's brilliant second half. Even with top deadline addition Sam Dyson completely fizzling, the Twins relief corps ranked third among MLB teams in fWAR after July 31st, trailing only the Yankees and Rays. While the closer Rogers continued to excel, he was surrounded by strong performers, with May, Duffey, Romo, and Littell all contributing in major ways. Meanwhile, Stashak and Graterol joined the fray as impact rookies. Graterol won't return, but everyone else will, along with waiver gamble Matt Wisler and free agent acquisition Tyler Clippard, whose reverse splits make him the weapon Baldelli needs against southpaws. Minnesota is about seven-deep with quality big-league relievers, and that's before you account for long-relief options such as Thorpe and Smeltzer, or ready-to-go reinforcements such as Sean Poppen and Fernando Romero. Even with the inherent volatility of MLB bullpens, and the inevitability of at least a few injuries, this relief unit is poised to be one of the American League's finest. THE BAD Graterol is a big loss. While he was the least established among this entire crop, he undoubtedly offered the most upside, which was set to be unleashed after the team's acknowledgement he was slated for a relief role in 2020. The Twins bolstered their rotation by trading the young flamethrower for Kenta Maeda, but there's a clear trade-off in bullpen caliber. By no means were the Twins counting on Graterol to be an essential fixture in this year's bullpen, but that was the beauty of his presence: a total bonus and a wild-card, with serious "ace in the hole" potential in this season and many to come. It may not be felt as strongly since we were only beginning to acclimate ourselves to the idea of him as a long-term relief pitcher, but make no mistake: Graterol's absence creates a spacious void in the bullpen's outlook going forward. The Twins will have to hope a rebounding Romero or an emerging Jhoan Duran can fill it in some way. Ultimately, the most evident weakness in Minnesota's bullpen is a lack of established track records beyond Rogers. As good as May, Duffey, and Littell were last year, none had a substantive history of MLB relief success prior. Wisler is still searching for his first above-average season in the majors. Signing Clippard and Romo helps in this regard, of course, but they are middle relief types. The Twins are counting heavily on May and Duffey to repeat their dominant performances from 2019. There's no specific reason to think either one won't but... relievers are relievers. THE BOTTOM LINE Bullpen is undoubtedly a differentiating asset for the Twins heading into 2020, as they've retained all the top performers in a unit that progressively emerged last year as one of the league's best and deepest. Rogers ranks among the position's elite, and is surrounded by a couple setup men who could easily join the closer in this distinction. Reliable options abound for Baldelli, who shouldn't find himself running short on trusted relievers barring an abundance of injuries and setbacks. Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Right Field Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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With 40 games in the books, we're almost exactly one-fourth of the way through our interactive simulated 2020 Twins season. Let's zoom out to take a look at how everyone's performing, and where we can improve as we try to chase down the world-beating Cleveland Indians in the standings.To get caught up on what we're doing here, you can check out the introductory post in the series for an explanation of the premise and setup. But the quick version is this: We're playing a progressive simulated Twins season on MLB The Show 20 on PS4, and y'all are helping guide the ship. In each installment I'll update you on what's happened since the last, and put at least one key decision up for vote. Date In Game: 5/11/20 Team Record: 23-17 Leading OPS: Miguel Sano (1.023 in 127 AB) Leading ERA (SP): Kenta Maeda (2.54 in 49.2 IP) Leading ERA (RP): Taylor Rogers (1.47 in 18.1 IP) LATEST RESULTS Gm 31 @ LAD: W 6-2 (Donaldson HR, 3 RBI) Gm 32 @ LAA: W 5-2 (Maeda 8 IP, 0 ER, W) Gm 33 @ LAA: W 8-1 (Bailey 6.1 IP, 1 ER, W) Gm 34 @ LAA: L 6-5 (Dobnak 2.2 IP, 4 ER) Gm 35 vs SF: W 8-7 (Kepler 4-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI) Gm 36 vs SF: W 2-1 (Odorizzi 8 IP, 1 ER) Gm 37 vs SF: L 4-2 (Cruz 4-for-4, HR) Gm 38 vs KC: L 15-2 (Bailey 2.2 IP, 6 ER) Gm 39 vs KC: L 9-4 (Dobnak 4.2 IP, 8 R, 4 ER) Gm 40 vs KC: W 4-3 (Berrios 7 IP, 2 ER, W) AL CENTRAL STANDINGS Download attachment: alcstandings51120.jpeg THE RUNDOWN Last time, commenters overwhelmingly voted for Randy Dobnak as the choice to replace Rich Hill as fifth starter, so we made it happen. Runner-up Devin Smeltzer was called up to fill Dobnak's long relief role in the bullpen. To his credit, Hill took the news of being DFA'ed quite well. After passing through waivers, he in fact accepted an assignment to the minors. At 40, the man is keeping his dream alive and you've gotta respect it. Should he turn things around in Rochester, he could factor as a late-inning reinforcement for the rotation. With about 25% of our season in the books, we're six games above .500 but still trailing the Indians by 5 1/2 in the Central. Cleveland's solid play since an 11-0 start to the season is keeping them well ahead of the pack with MLB's best record (30-13). On our end, the most noteworthy storyline is our team's impeccable run of good health; we've not used the Injured List once through six weeks. Personally, I credit the manager's routine of steady rest and careful pitcher workload management. But that's just me. At this milestone juncture of the season, it felt fitting to give everyone a big-picture view of how the roster's faring. Here the numbers so far for our starting lineup: Max Kepler, RF: 161 PA, .317/.379/.510, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 32 RJosh Donaldson, 3B: 181 PA, .294/.376/.550, 12 HR, 30 RBI, 27 RNelson Cruz, DH: 169 PA, .322/.391/.530, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 18 REddie Rosario, LF: 157 PA, .290/.325/.510, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 22 RMiguel Sano, 1B: 153 PA, .315/.425/.598, 10 HR, 29 RBI, 18 RJorge Polanco, SS: 156 PA, .274/.372/.407, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 19 RMitch Garver: C: 118 PA, .263/.398/.453, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 15 RLuis Arraez, 2B: 133 PA, .307/.406/.500, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 22 RByron Buxton, CF: 134 PA, .193/.260/.235, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 11 RAnd the bench...Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL: 87 PA, .269/.345/.487, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 10 RAlex Avila, C: 60 PA, .269/.367/.596, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 7 RWillians Astudillo, C: 47 PA, .256/.304/.279, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 5 RJimmy Kerrigan, OF: 25 PA, .130/.200/.217, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 RHere are the numbers for our rotation, including the newly added Dobnak...Jose Berrios: 52.2 IP, 4-3, 4.61 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 37-to-22 K/BBJake Odorizzi: 53.2 IP, 4-3, 2.68 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 54-to-15 K/BBKenta Maeda: 49.2 IP, 5-0, 2.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 48-to-29 K/BBHomer Bailey: 40.0 IP, 4-1, 4.95 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 33-to-17 K/BBRandy Dobnak: 23.2 IP, 1-1, 4.18 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10-to-11 K/BBAnd the bullpen, listed basically in order of the leverage hierarchy I've been using...Taylor Rogers: 18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 16-to-3 K/BB, 10/11 SVTyler Duffey: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 20-to-9 K/BBTrevor May: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 20-to-8 K/BBTyler Clippard: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 13-to-10 K/BBSergio Romo: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 13-to-3 K/BBZack Littell: 14.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9-to-4 K/BBJordan Balazovic: 19.1 IP, 8.84 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, 18-to-7 K/BBDevin Smeltzer: 5.1 IP, 8.44 ERA, 2.81 WHIP, 1-to-5 K/BBI'll share a few general notes and thoughts, then we'll dissect some decisions that lie ahead of us as we look to gear up for key stretches in the schedule. Much like last year, offensive dominance has come in a holistic fashion. Everyone in the lineup (save Buxton) has been very good, and the team ranks second in the majors in runs scored (213), but no individual player's been out-of-this world. As such, the Twins aren't leading All-Star voting at any position position. (Miguel Sano and Max Kepler have the third-most votes at first base and right field.) May Day? More like Maeda Day. On May 1st, I ran into my most controversial decision of the season. Kenta Maeda was through eight innings against the Angels with zero hits allowed. He had, however, issued six walks and run up a fairly high pitch count, with this stamina teetering on the brink of depletion. Rather than strain our best starter in pursuit of the no-hitter, I turned to the bullpen with a 5-0 lead. Zack Littell gave up a couple runs before Taylor Rogers came in for a cheapy one-out save. Maeda's been a steady force atop the rotation with his 5-0 record and 2.54 ERA. (If you're curious, Brusdar Graterol has a 7.33 ERA in the rotation for the Dodgers' Triple-A affiliate.) My favorite game of this set: Maeda's no-no flirtation was a fun one, of course, but four days later we came out on top of an 11-inning thriller against the Giants with a Target Field walk-off. A game log snapshot of the ending is below, and I'm presenting it mainly just to pat myself on the back for a great pinch-running decision. (Kepler was on the bench due to a planned rest day.) Download attachment: gamewinnerlog.jpeg Dobnak's transition to the rotation has been rocky. His first start came in Anaheim against the Angels, and things didn't go well. A first-inning homer by Mike Trout set the tone in a tough outing that lasted only 2 2/3 frames, with the Halos scoring four times on six hits and a walk. Zero strikeouts. Dobnak's next turn at home against the Royals didn't go swimmingly either (4.2 IP, 8 R, 4 ER), although a costly Marwin Gonzalez error hurt him, as evidenced by half of the runs charged against him being unearned. Dobnak has allowed eight earned runs in 7 1/3 innings as a starter after allowing three in 16 1/3 innings as a long reliever. Incredible performances in the American League. It won't likely come as a surprise that the league-pacing Indians have two familiar contenders in the MVP race – Jose Ramirez has a 1.168 OPS and Francisco Lindor is scantly behind him at 1.055. But the talk of the league through early May, without question, is Boston's J.D. Martinez, who is unconscionably slashing .363/.414/.819 with 19 home runs and 46 RBIs through 39 games. Those totals put him on pace to finish with 77 homers and 186 RBIs. Martinez is either gonna cool down at some point or re-write the modern record books. The two Martinezes and Lindor have their teams (Cleveland and Boston) in first place, with the two best records in the AL. How can our Twins get to this level? Time for some tweaking. DECISION TIME: HOW CAN WE GET BETTER? We've been playing pretty well, but need to keep pushing hard in order to close the gap against Cleveland. While there are no glaring needs necessarily demanding our immediate attention, I see a few different opportunities to proactively shake things up and address some trouble spots. I'm gonna let you guys choose where we take action. Here are three ideas. Option #1: Move Jordan Balazovic into the starting rotation This probably seems counterintuitive and perhaps even moronic on the surface. Balazovic is struggling as a long reliever in the bullpen, with a ghastly 8.84 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings. However, I will submit he's pitched than the numbers show. He has a higher overall rating (74) than Dobnak (73) or Homer Bailey (73). And here's the thing, that rating could theoretically be a lot higher. MLB The Show 20's Franchise Mode has a player morale system, which actually has a meaningful impact on outcomes. The idea is that if a player is unhappy, he'll play worse. Balazovic has the lowest morale on the team, and it's dragging down his overall rating by a whopping five points, from 79 to 74. This is partially because he's getting crushed, and partially because he's not in his desired role. Download attachment: balavovicmorale.jpeg What if we give him a shot in the rotation and see if it gets things moving in the right direction? Production could hardly be worse than we've received from Hill or Dobnak in that spot, and Balazovic offers more achievable upside than anyone else in this mix. I'll admit, though, it's a hasty plug-pull on Dobnak. Option #2: Call up Brent Rooker to replace Jimmy Kerrigan Kerrigan's a reasonably functional bench piece, but he hasn't been any kind of difference-maker in a month seeing being called up. If we want to swap him out, we could aim a little higher. In 25 games at Rochester, Rooker is hitting .282/.384/.565 with a team-leading six home runs for the Red Wings. Download attachment: rochesterleaders.jpeg My thinking is that we can rotate Rooker through left field semi-frequently, with Rosario going to right and Kepler to center. Buxton still hasn't been able to get anything going at the plate, so a reduction in playing time is as warranted as the opportunity for Rooker. Option #3: Call up Fernando Romero for the bullpen Remember him? He's pitching well through 12 appearances (one start) at Triple-A, with a 3.45 ERA and 29-to-8 K/BB ratio through 28 2/3 innings. His high stamina rating (75) would make him a nice fit as replacement for Devin Smeltzer, who's been a complete mess since joining the big-league bullpen (5 BB, 1 K in 5.1 IP). Download attachment: romeroprofile.jpeg Decisions loom large, with a series in Cleveland coming up on the next road trip and no off days in the next two weeks. What should we do? Sound off in the comments to voice your preference. Feel free to vote multiple times on this one if you're so inclined, since they're non-exclusive. COMING UP 5/11: @ DET 5/12: @ DET 5/13: @ DET 5/14: @ DET 5/15: @ CLE 5/16: @ CLE 5/17: @ CLE 5/18: vs BAL 5/19: vs BAL 5/20: vs BAL PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS Part 1: We Can Build This Thing Together (0-0) Part 2: 10 Games In, 6 Games Back (4-6) Part 3: Roaring Back (11-9) Part 4: Over the Hill (17-13) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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To get caught up on what we're doing here, you can check out the introductory post in the series for an explanation of the premise and setup. But the quick version is this: We're playing a progressive simulated Twins season on MLB The Show 20 on PS4, and y'all are helping guide the ship. In each installment I'll update you on what's happened since the last, and put at least one key decision up for vote. Date In Game: 5/11/20 Team Record: 23-17 Leading OPS: Miguel Sano (1.023 in 127 AB) Leading ERA (SP): Kenta Maeda (2.54 in 49.2 IP) Leading ERA (RP): Taylor Rogers (1.47 in 18.1 IP) LATEST RESULTS Gm 31 @ LAD: W 6-2 (Donaldson HR, 3 RBI) Gm 32 @ LAA: W 5-2 (Maeda 8 IP, 0 ER, W) Gm 33 @ LAA: W 8-1 (Bailey 6.1 IP, 1 ER, W) Gm 34 @ LAA: L 6-5 (Dobnak 2.2 IP, 4 ER) Gm 35 vs SF: W 8-7 (Kepler 4-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI) Gm 36 vs SF: W 2-1 (Odorizzi 8 IP, 1 ER) Gm 37 vs SF: L 4-2 (Cruz 4-for-4, HR) Gm 38 vs KC: L 15-2 (Bailey 2.2 IP, 6 ER) Gm 39 vs KC: L 9-4 (Dobnak 4.2 IP, 8 R, 4 ER) Gm 40 vs KC: W 4-3 (Berrios 7 IP, 2 ER, W) AL CENTRAL STANDINGS THE RUNDOWN Last time, commenters overwhelmingly voted for Randy Dobnak as the choice to replace Rich Hill as fifth starter, so we made it happen. Runner-up Devin Smeltzer was called up to fill Dobnak's long relief role in the bullpen. To his credit, Hill took the news of being DFA'ed quite well. After passing through waivers, he in fact accepted an assignment to the minors. At 40, the man is keeping his dream alive and you've gotta respect it. Should he turn things around in Rochester, he could factor as a late-inning reinforcement for the rotation. With about 25% of our season in the books, we're six games above .500 but still trailing the Indians by 5 1/2 in the Central. Cleveland's solid play since an 11-0 start to the season is keeping them well ahead of the pack with MLB's best record (30-13). On our end, the most noteworthy storyline is our team's impeccable run of good health; we've not used the Injured List once through six weeks. Personally, I credit the manager's routine of steady rest and careful pitcher workload management. But that's just me. At this milestone juncture of the season, it felt fitting to give everyone a big-picture view of how the roster's faring. Here the numbers so far for our starting lineup: Max Kepler, RF: 161 PA, .317/.379/.510, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 32 R Josh Donaldson, 3B: 181 PA, .294/.376/.550, 12 HR, 30 RBI, 27 R Nelson Cruz, DH: 169 PA, .322/.391/.530, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 18 R Eddie Rosario, LF: 157 PA, .290/.325/.510, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 22 R Miguel Sano, 1B: 153 PA, .315/.425/.598, 10 HR, 29 RBI, 18 R Jorge Polanco, SS: 156 PA, .274/.372/.407, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 19 R Mitch Garver: C: 118 PA, .263/.398/.453, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 15 R Luis Arraez, 2B: 133 PA, .307/.406/.500, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 22 R Byron Buxton, CF: 134 PA, .193/.260/.235, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 11 R And the bench... Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL: 87 PA, .269/.345/.487, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 10 R Alex Avila, C: 60 PA, .269/.367/.596, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 7 R Willians Astudillo, C: 47 PA, .256/.304/.279, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 5 R Jimmy Kerrigan, OF: 25 PA, .130/.200/.217, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 R Here are the numbers for our rotation, including the newly added Dobnak... Jose Berrios: 52.2 IP, 4-3, 4.61 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 37-to-22 K/BB Jake Odorizzi: 53.2 IP, 4-3, 2.68 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 54-to-15 K/BB Kenta Maeda: 49.2 IP, 5-0, 2.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 48-to-29 K/BB Homer Bailey: 40.0 IP, 4-1, 4.95 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 33-to-17 K/BB Randy Dobnak: 23.2 IP, 1-1, 4.18 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10-to-11 K/BB And the bullpen, listed basically in order of the leverage hierarchy I've been using... Taylor Rogers: 18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 16-to-3 K/BB, 10/11 SV Tyler Duffey: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 20-to-9 K/BB Trevor May: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 20-to-8 K/BB Tyler Clippard: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 13-to-10 K/BB Sergio Romo: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 13-to-3 K/BB Zack Littell: 14.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9-to-4 K/BB Jordan Balazovic: 19.1 IP, 8.84 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, 18-to-7 K/BB Devin Smeltzer: 5.1 IP, 8.44 ERA, 2.81 WHIP, 1-to-5 K/BB I'll share a few general notes and thoughts, then we'll dissect some decisions that lie ahead of us as we look to gear up for key stretches in the schedule. Much like last year, offensive dominance has come in a holistic fashion. Everyone in the lineup (save Buxton) has been very good, and the team ranks second in the majors in runs scored (213), but no individual player's been out-of-this world. As such, the Twins aren't leading All-Star voting at any position position. (Miguel Sano and Max Kepler have the third-most votes at first base and right field.) May Day? More like Maeda Day. On May 1st, I ran into my most controversial decision of the season. Kenta Maeda was through eight innings against the Angels with zero hits allowed. He had, however, issued six walks and run up a fairly high pitch count, with this stamina teetering on the brink of depletion. Rather than strain our best starter in pursuit of the no-hitter, I turned to the bullpen with a 5-0 lead. Zack Littell gave up a couple runs before Taylor Rogers came in for a cheapy one-out save. Maeda's been a steady force atop the rotation with his 5-0 record and 2.54 ERA. (If you're curious, Brusdar Graterol has a 7.33 ERA in the rotation for the Dodgers' Triple-A affiliate.) My favorite game of this set: Maeda's no-no flirtation was a fun one, of course, but four days later we came out on top of an 11-inning thriller against the Giants with a Target Field walk-off. A game log snapshot of the ending is below, and I'm presenting it mainly just to pat myself on the back for a great pinch-running decision. (Kepler was on the bench due to a planned rest day.) Dobnak's transition to the rotation has been rocky. His first start came in Anaheim against the Angels, and things didn't go well. A first-inning homer by Mike Trout set the tone in a tough outing that lasted only 2 2/3 frames, with the Halos scoring four times on six hits and a walk. Zero strikeouts. Dobnak's next turn at home against the Royals didn't go swimmingly either (4.2 IP, 8 R, 4 ER), although a costly Marwin Gonzalez error hurt him, as evidenced by half of the runs charged against him being unearned. Dobnak has allowed eight earned runs in 7 1/3 innings as a starter after allowing three in 16 1/3 innings as a long reliever. Incredible performances in the American League. It won't likely come as a surprise that the league-pacing Indians have two familiar contenders in the MVP race – Jose Ramirez has a 1.168 OPS and Francisco Lindor is scantly behind him at 1.055. But the talk of the league through early May, without question, is Boston's J.D. Martinez, who is unconscionably slashing .363/.414/.819 with 19 home runs and 46 RBIs through 39 games. Those totals put him on pace to finish with 77 homers and 186 RBIs. Martinez is either gonna cool down at some point or re-write the modern record books. The two Martinezes and Lindor have their teams (Cleveland and Boston) in first place, with the two best records in the AL. How can our Twins get to this level? Time for some tweaking. DECISION TIME: HOW CAN WE GET BETTER? We've been playing pretty well, but need to keep pushing hard in order to close the gap against Cleveland. While there are no glaring needs necessarily demanding our immediate attention, I see a few different opportunities to proactively shake things up and address some trouble spots. I'm gonna let you guys choose where we take action. Here are three ideas. Option #1: Move Jordan Balazovic into the starting rotation This probably seems counterintuitive and perhaps even moronic on the surface. Balazovic is struggling as a long reliever in the bullpen, with a ghastly 8.84 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings. However, I will submit he's pitched than the numbers show. He has a higher overall rating (74) than Dobnak (73) or Homer Bailey (73). And here's the thing, that rating could theoretically be a lot higher. MLB The Show 20's Franchise Mode has a player morale system, which actually has a meaningful impact on outcomes. The idea is that if a player is unhappy, he'll play worse. Balazovic has the lowest morale on the team, and it's dragging down his overall rating by a whopping five points, from 79 to 74. This is partially because he's getting crushed, and partially because he's not in his desired role. What if we give him a shot in the rotation and see if it gets things moving in the right direction? Production could hardly be worse than we've received from Hill or Dobnak in that spot, and Balazovic offers more achievable upside than anyone else in this mix. I'll admit, though, it's a hasty plug-pull on Dobnak. Option #2: Call up Brent Rooker to replace Jimmy Kerrigan Kerrigan's a reasonably functional bench piece, but he hasn't been any kind of difference-maker in a month seeing being called up. If we want to swap him out, we could aim a little higher. In 25 games at Rochester, Rooker is hitting .282/.384/.565 with a team-leading six home runs for the Red Wings. My thinking is that we can rotate Rooker through left field semi-frequently, with Rosario going to right and Kepler to center. Buxton still hasn't been able to get anything going at the plate, so a reduction in playing time is as warranted as the opportunity for Rooker. Option #3: Call up Fernando Romero for the bullpen Remember him? He's pitching well through 12 appearances (one start) at Triple-A, with a 3.45 ERA and 29-to-8 K/BB ratio through 28 2/3 innings. His high stamina rating (75) would make him a nice fit as replacement for Devin Smeltzer, who's been a complete mess since joining the big-league bullpen (5 BB, 1 K in 5.1 IP). Decisions loom large, with a series in Cleveland coming up on the next road trip and no off days in the next two weeks. What should we do? Sound off in the comments to voice your preference. Feel free to vote multiple times on this one if you're so inclined, since they're non-exclusive. COMING UP 5/11: @ DET 5/12: @ DET 5/13: @ DET 5/14: @ DET 5/15: @ CLE 5/16: @ CLE 5/17: @ CLE 5/18: vs BAL 5/19: vs BAL 5/20: vs BAL PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS Part 1: We Can Build This Thing Together (0-0) Part 2: 10 Games In, 6 Games Back (4-6) Part 3: Roaring Back (11-9) Part 4: Over the Hill (17-13) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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The Show Must Go On: Over the Hill
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Hmm, that's strange. Here's what you should see if you're logged in on desktop: I don't know that it shows up on the mobile version, which is an unfortunate bug. But for anyone who doesn't see the "Like This" button, feel free to submit your choice as a comment and it'll be counted equally! -
The Show Must Go On: Over the Hill
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Poor Chacin. Is anyone even gonna give him a pity vote? -
The Show Must Go On: Over the Hill
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
OOTP is highly recommended for those seeking a more realistic simulation experience! That aspect kinda went out the window for us here when we signed Jordan Balazovic as a free agent before the season started haha -
The Show Must Go On: Over the Hill
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The game doesn't account for his rehab and delayed start, so he was available out of the gates. Although, in light of his performance, maybe they were accounting for it? If he was pitching with an only partially healed UCL then I feel a bit bad about my decision... but I stand by it. -
The Show Must Go On: Over the Hill
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Option 3: Press "Like This" on this comment if you want us to replace Rich Hill as fifth starter with Jhoulys Chacin, who's been merely okay at Triple-A but has a 69 rating. -
The Show Must Go On: Over the Hill
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Option 2: Press "Like This" on this comment if you want us to replace Rich Hill as fifth starter with Devin Smeltzer, who's 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA at Triple-A. -
The Show Must Go On: Over the Hill
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Option 1: Press "Like This" on this comment if you want us to replace Rich Hill as fifth starter with Randy Dobnak, who's rocking a 1.65 ERA as a long reliever for the Twins.

