Nick Nelson

Option 2: Press "Like This" on this comment if you want us to leave Balazovic on the open market and enter the season with our roster as is.

Option 1: Press "Like This" on this comment if you want us to sign Balazovic. He'd likely join our bullpen and displace one of our long relievers.

Alright, so the MLB season won't be starting as planned, and real-life baseball might not be back any time soon. We can either continue to wallow in sadness or we can try to have a little fun. Today I'm kicking off 'The Show Must Go On,' an interactive simulated Twins season where you all get to call the shots.Last week, Sony released MLB The Show 20 for PlayStation 4. This franchise sits among baseball video game royalty (behind the king, MVP Baseball, of course) and the latest installment features up-to-date rosters, rules, AI, etc. While the details and player ratings aren't always spot-on (as we'll learn), the folks behind this game take baseball seriously. In general, The Show's accuracy and authenticity are very respectable. So here's the deal. We're going to start a season as the 2020 Twins and chronicle it here. I won't be actually playing through the games myself, so my (lack of) skills will not be a factor. Instead I'll run through them in "Quick Manage Mode," which basically means every AB is simulated and only in-game decision making is controlled. I shall do my best to channel Rocco Baldelli while guiding the ship from day to day. Incrementally throughout this fictional season, I'll post stories here updating the team's record, trends, notable performances, injuries, rising prospects, and so forth. And each of these updates will include at least one decision up for vote – a promotion, a trade, a signing, a shakeup of the batting order – so readers can shape the journey as it unfolds. I'll also be very open to suggestions of any kind in the comments section. The wackier the better. MLB The Show has budget limits and trade fairness thresholds that'll prevent us from dealing Ehire Adrianza for Mike Trout, but we're not exactly bound to the constraints of reality. With the ground rules laid out, let us begin... THE COUNTDOWN TO OPENING DAY First things first, let's get acclimated to the Twins roster in the context of this video game. Minnesota ranks here as the fifth-best team in the majors, with the following breakdown: Contact: 6thPower: 2ndPitching: 7thDefense 16thSpeed: 27thThe teams ahead of the Twins overall are, in order: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Nationals. Sounds about right. As we get our season underway, here's a look at the top 10 highest-rated players in the Twins organization, which will give you a good idea of the game's... wavering accuracy in evaluation: Download attachment: top10players.jpeg Rosario is too high. Berrios is too low. Plenty of quibbles to be had. But for the most part, the ratings are all reasonable enough to resemble actual expectations. One glaring exception further down the list: Michael Pineda has a 68 rating. For context, that is lower than Cody Gearrin (68), Jhoulys Chacin (69), and a fictional 19-year-old A-ball pitcher named Reid McMahon (72). I don't get it. Speaking of Reid McMahon, another point of clarification: MLB The Show 20 does have minor-league teams, and – for the first time – many actual minor-league players! But there are still plenty of computer-generated randos, like our young southpaw McMahon. It would be possible to tailor the entire Twins system to reality, and also to edit Pineda's blatantly underrated attributes, but even in quarantine, that sounds too tedious. Throughout this exercise, the rule shall be: play it as it lies. With this in mind, here's our season-opening pitching staff: Download attachment: openingdaystaff.jpeg In video game land, we get the luxury of having Rich Hill right out of the gates. I did take the liberty of sending Matt Wisler to the minors since I was given the option. With the expanded roster, we're rolling with a 13-man staff, which includes two long relievers. Gotta be prepared for anything (and Dobnak/Smeltzer are higher-rated than alternatives). Our virtual Opening Day takes place on March 26th against the Athletics in Oakland. It'll be Berrios against left-hander Sean Manaea. Here's the lineup I plan to trot out: Download attachment: odlineup.jpeg My thinking: stack righties at the top, and distribute lefties throughout, while bowing somewhat to the game's rating system. I'm very open to altering this approach if anyone has strong opinions. Feel free to share 'em in the comments section – all compelling cases will be considered. Soon enough, I'll proceed with simming through the first slate of games. Then, we'll check back in with an update, and with more decisions to be made. But first, an unexpected one lies before us. DECISION TIME: SHOULD WE SIGN JORDAN BALAZOVIC? So, I mentioned earlier that while MLB The Show generally gets things right, roster-wise, there are invariably hiccups and inexplicable oddities. Here we have a prime example: for some reason, Jordan Balazovic is a free agent. Yes, the top Twins pitching prospect, who is 21 and hasn't pitched above Single-A, is in the video game but is also – inexplicably – at the top of the MLB free agent pool, with a shockingly high 79 rating. That puts him ahead of fellow FAs like Yasiel Puig, Ben Zobrist, Scooter Gennett and Pat Neshek. (It would also tie him with Trevor May for fifth-highest rated pitcher on the Twins pitching staff... right now.) Download attachment: balazovicFA.jpeg Why has this happened? Who knows. But we gotta sign him, right? An initial inquiry tells us he'd likely accept a one-year, $100K deal, which seems strange but hey we're living in strange times. I do assume it would be an MLB contract and we'd have to keep him in the big leagues, which creates some complications. Should we do it? I'll present the two options as comments below this article – whichever gets the most votes is the way. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY Want more MLB The Show content? Cooper Carlson is through May in his more hands-off 2020 season simulation. It's going quite well! Ted Schwerzler wrote about the game's popular Diamond Dynasty mode. Click here to view the article

It goes without saying: The fallout of our global pandemic is far from ideal for anyone, in baseball or beyond. An indefinite delay of the league's 2020 season – one which seems likely to extend into July at least – creates challenging circumstances for each team and player. But as I look up and down the roster, there are five Twins who, based on timing in their careers, stand out as especially unfortunate victims of this season in limbo.I feel for each of these guys, who will be dealing with shutdown disruption at critical junctures. Nelson Cruz, DH The veteran slugger's 40th birthday, July 1st, is a pretty reasonable over-under at this point for Opening Day – if not a tad optimistic. He looked incredibly good last year, giving no warning of imminent decline, but his age puts him up against the clock. This delay will remove a significant portion of the remaining games Cruz has left in the tank. And given how brilliantly he's still playing (including this spring, where he mashed three homers and two doubles in 23 at-bats), that's a shame. Trevor May, RHP It's been a long journey for May. He was a fourth-round pick of the Phillies in 2008, traded to Minnesota in 2012. He debuted in the majors in 2014 as a starter, transitioned fully to relief in 2016, then lost basically two full seasons to Tommy John surgery. Last year, at age 29, May finally broke through, posting a stellar 2.94 ERA and 11.1 K/9 rate as one of the team's highest-leverage relievers. This included a 1.38 ERA in 23 appearances between August and September. May was carrying a full head of steam into the biggest season of his career, with free agency coming at the end. Due to his ill-timed elbow injury and role-switching, the right-hander has burnt through most of his team service time without truly establishing himself, in spite of his immense talent, dedication, and intelligence. That's why he finds himself looking ahead to the open market already, with fewer than 300 total MLB innings. He's yet to earn a salary over $1 million. The 2020 season represented a huge opportunity for May to make his case on a big stage. And yes, that opportunity should still be awaiting him whenever baseball resumes. But I sure would've liked to see him ride all that built-up momentum. After putting it all together at long last, being forced to wait has gotta be especially painful for him. Rich Hill, LHP One might argue that Hill actually stands to be the beneficiary of a suspended season. He wasn't expected back until June at least, so a months-late start could make him available for the Twins from the jump. And should the season get extended later into the year to include more games, it's possible the Twins could get more starts from Hill than they ever expected upon signing him. It's possible. But any theoretical notion of Hill joining the club midseason, in classic form, was always steeped in hopeful optimism. The reason he and his immaculate track record were available to the Twins at such a fine value is that Hill is a longshot. He turned 40 a week ago and is trying to come back from rarely utilized elbow surgery. In a situation like this, you need a lot to go right. Like all players, Hill will have to deal with the auxiliary impacts of a total league shutdown, including the loss of access to his team's world-class trainers, equipment, and rehab regimens. The southpaw will certainly stick to his own program but there's no replacement for the steady, organized ramp-up process with assorted milestones and benchmarks. If the entire season is lost, this could very well be it for Hill's career. Jake Odorizzi, RHP Much like May, Odorizzi is heading into a pivotal year. In accepting Minnesota's qualifying offer, he opted to bypass a multi-year contract in favor of the short-term payday. Coming off an All-Star campaign, he was set to make $17.8 million and then hit the open market. Now, his plan is in flux. In a shortened season, would players receive prorated salaries? It stands to reason. And in such a scenario, Odorizzi's perfectly logical gamble stands to backfire. He wouldn't earn the full 2020 figure that enticed him, and he would end up auditioning for his next contract in a weird, partial campaign. Maybe that's not how it plays out. Hopefully baseball can find a way to ease the relative burdens for players in such tough positions. While these examples all obviously pale in comparison to the thousands of less-wealthy individuals who work at ballparks and fill their stands, there's an unmistakable difference between a player in Josh Donaldson's position of total security, and one in Odorizzi's. Not to mention a fringe player trying to seize what might be his biggest chance. Randy Dobnak, RHP His 2019 season was one of the best real-life underdog stories in memory, and there was more to Dobnak than just a fun narrative. He pitched extremely well, displaying poise and precision beyond his years. From undrafted independent-leaguer to ALDS starter, the right-hander is on a journey like no other. He was set to continue it under favorable circumstances this spring. A spot in the Twins rotation was for the taking, and his case was strong coming off a dazzling debut. But a delayed start shifts those circumstances. Suddenly, the starting corps could become crowded much more quickly, with Hill and even Michael Pineda potentially entering the fold sooner, and no injuries to open up spots. Minnesota's 2020 roster was meticulously built for the rigors of a 162-game season, loaded with depth and contingencies. A shortening of the season wouldn't negate this strength, but it would be costly for players like Dobnak on the fringes. Everyone knows how difficult it is to carve out a niche at the highest level of this game. Hard-working young men who are at the apex of their opportunities will lose time they can't get back. That's just one of many harsh realities rippling from this occurrence. But to look on the bright side, baseball will be back eventually. And when that happens, so many of its players – these five especially – will be poised for inspiring tales of perseverance and success in the face of adversity. I can't wait to write about them. Click here to view the article

Max Kepler has arrived, and he ain't going anywhere. At 27, he's a consummate star right fielder, excelling offensively and defensively as a key lineup fixture. The only thing that might supplant Kepler from his position is a familiar turn of events with the player to this right. But the Twins are rather well equipped for such a scenario.Projected Starter: Max Kepler Likely Backup: Marwin Gonzalez Depth: Jake Cave, LaMonte Wade Jr. Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach THE GOOD Reading through the 2019 fWAR leaderboard at right field is a veritable "who's who" of MLB stardom: Christian Yelich, MIL – 7.8 Cody Bellinger, LAD – 7.8 Mookie Betts, BOS – 6.6 George Springer, HOU – 6.5 Aaron Judge, NYY – 4.6 Bryce Harper, PHI – 4.6 Max Kepler, MIN – 4.4 Does Kepler belong in the conversation with the premier class ahead of him? Many signs points to yes. A year ago, Kepler was one of the most obvious breakout candidates in baseball, with an offensive profile that overshadowed his modest track record. Sure enough, after three seasons of consistently mediocre production, the right fielder turned a corner, belting 36 home runs to dwarf his previous watermark of 20. His .855 OPS was a 16% improvement over his previous best. In 134 games, Kepler crossed the plate 98 times, and drove in 90 runs. He thrived offensively as leadoff man for one of the most potent offenses in MLB history. Notably, he performed better against lefties than righties for a second consecutive year, after struggling mightily versus same-siders in the early stage of his career. The German native has worked tirelessly on his game and developed into a tremendously refined ballplayer at the age of 27. He takes good at-bats and rarely strikes out; in fact, the only MLB players to hit 35+ home runs with a lower K-rate than his (16.6%) were Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, and Nolan Arenado. He's solidly above average in almost every Statcast measure. Download attachment: keplerstatcast.png And as the above chart shows, his defense was flat-out elite. Kepler brings the range of a solid center fielder to a position that's frequently manned by plodding sluggers, making him a key asset on the field. When he's in right and Byron Buxton's in center, it's awfully tough for baseballs to find landing spots in Minnesota's outfield, which is a strength well suited to the team's fly ball pitching staff. Kepler's ability to capably slide over to center in Buxton's absence is a key value-booster, and one reason why the depth could easily be tested in right field. But if the reigning Twins Daily MVP can stay mostly planted where he's best, there aren't many better. Icing on the cake? He's on the front end of his prime and under team control at favorable rates through 2024. THE BAD One could argue that no Twins player in 2019 was a more obvious beneficiary of the juiced ball than Kepler. He set a very stable baseline for himself in his first three big-league seasons: 17 HR, 19 HR, 20 HR, with slugging percentages that never topped .425. Then, he went out and blasted 36 homers and slugged .519, at a time where power numbers spiked across the league. He was due for some positive regression, given his launch angles and ability to control the zone, but that's a stark jump. And one issue plaguing Kepler did not disappear: Since 2016, he ranks 285th out of 292 MLB hitters in BABIP. Every player behind him on that list is either old, or slow, or both. Kepler's an above-average runner who makes tons of contact, and hits the ball reasonably hard, mostly in the air. But for whatever reason, he is stunningly ineffective at turning batted balls into hits. While his .244 BABIP in 2019 was a slight improvement over 2018's .236 mark, it was still fourth-lowest in baseball and a far cry from the league-wide standard of .300. This is a big deal with material impact on Kepler's value. If he would've hit .280 instead of .252 last year, his overall production would've been dramatically better – especially in the OBP column, where his .336 was rather uninspiring for a leadoff man. An abnormally low BABIP would in most cases be cause for optimism about a hitter's prospects of rebounding, but this has become Kepler's norm. And if it persists while his power numbers come back down to Earth, you've got the recipe for a return to ordinary levels of production. THE BOTTOM LINE Kepler's a great player who has risen to the precipice of superstardom by combining tremendous athletic gifts with a steadfast will to improve. He still has hurdles to get past, but I wouldn't bet against him. Given that he's under guaranteed contract for another four years, and stellar defensively, Kepler is as firmly entrenched at his position as anyone on the roster. Meanwhile, the organization's No. 2 and No. 3 prospects both play that same position. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach are both verging on major-league readiness, presenting a welcome quandary: What to do with so much high-caliber talent? I'm sure the Twins will find a way deal with it when the time comes. Maybe Buxton's persisting lack of durability answers the question on its own. Or maybe they'll leverage the impending vacancy (?) in left field. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Center Field MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

There are many things I love about baseball. But high on that list is the routine. The reliability. Training camps mark the passage of winter to spring. Then the season starts and all summer long, there are games to look forward to every night. Sunday afternoons spent watching daytime baseball in a sun-soaked living room are a cherished ritual. So the weeks ahead will be jarring and kinda somber. But it's on us all to make the best of it.Major League Baseball's season will not start as planned. Given the scope and gravity of COVID-19, there's a good chance it'll be a long while before normalcy returns. In the wake of a CDC recommendation that all gatherings of 50-plus people in the next eight weeks be canceled or postponed, any regular-season action prior to June is essentially a pipe dream. I myself have become a creature of routine where the Twins are concerned, not just in terms of viewing and attendance habits but also writing and conversing. As the reality of what lies ahead sets in, I find myself wondering: What am I gonna write about? What will we talk about here on a daily basis? I can promise you this much: we'll find stuff. One thing I know is that we'll be covering every unfolding development, regarding Major League Baseball in general but especially the Twins, throughout the absence of games. Even while the season hangs in hiatus, there will still be news emerging regularly, and we're committed to keeping you all posted in real-time. Beyond that, I'm open-minded. Here are a few ideas we might explore to establish new routines while we await the return of baseball. Playing Our Own Seasons. The top baseball video game, MLB: The Show, drops its new edition for PlayStation 4 on Tuesday. A series of stories chronicling a fictional Twins season, with interactive elements to let readers guide decision-making, could be fun. Computer baseball sims like OOTP offer similar dynamics.Business As Usual. We're not usually short on content and creative angles around here, even during the slowest stretches of the baseball calendar. There are plenty of informative and entertaining pieces already in the pipeline, and I have no doubts regarding the ability of our writers to generate a steady stream of fun ideas. For my part, I'll be forging ahead with my ongoing Position Analysis series (right field coming Monday night!).Historical Retrospectives. There's no shortage of lookback topics worth tackling. For example, I had a lot of fun putting together this list of the top 10 moments in the first 10 years at Target Field. How else might we examine the past and relive classic moments in efforts to scratch our baseball itch? As always, anyone is welcome to submit requests (or try tackling a topic of your choosing in the blogs section).Analyzing the Fallout. What will it mean if half the games are eliminated? How will scheduling be impacted? How will a reshaped season fit into the historical context of Major League Baseball? Would a smaller sample of games diminish the feat of a championship? There will be ample opportunity for analyzing these matters in the moment.Fundraising & Support. People are going to struggle amid efforts to combat the spread of COVID-19. Seasonal employees at Target Field and minor-leaguers are among many examples of folks who may miss out on income they rely on. As John wrote last week, this is a community, and that means looking out for one another. At TD, we hope to create mechanisms for those in our community who are able to support others in need. What exactly this will look like is TBD, but we're very open to ideas and suggestions.Baseball is a grand old game and a grand old distraction. I'm sure I am not alone in saying that tuning out and putting on a game tends be therapeutic for me during stressful times. This makes the unavoidable realities of a global pandemic all the more challenging to grapple with. We are going it without our most beloved diversion. Twins Daily will do its best to fill that void and restore some sense of routine. We hope you'll help dictate the content and conversation by letting us know what you want to read and talk about. Please take care of yourselves, and each other. No one's excited about navigating the uncertainty ahead, but at least we'll be doing it together. Click here to view the article

Whenever the 2020 season starts, center field will take center stage: A position that could provide the Twins with their most decisive advantage, but also could devolve into a revolving door. Can Byron Buxton stay healthy? And if not, who will be ready to take the mantle at Minnesota's most critical defensive position?Projected Starter: Byron Buxton Likely Backup: Max Kepler Depth: LaMonte Wade Jr., Jake Cave Prospects: Royce Lewis, Gilberto Celestino THE GOOD Buxton's ability to rank among the best center fielders in the majors finally changed from theoretical to undeniable last season. When he suffered a (basically) season-ending shoulder injury on August 1st, his 2.7 fWAR was second-best among full-time CFs. There are plenty of excellent and athletic players who spend some time in center, or even a lot of time. This includes guys like Houston's George Springer, Arizona's Ketel Marte, Atlanta's Ronald Acuña, even Minnesota's Max Kepler. But among true, no-doubt center fielders – the guys you wouldn't dream of playing anywhere else on the field – only the eventual MVP Mike Trout was having a better season than Buxton through four months according to Fangraphs' all-encompassing metric. This shouldn't come as a surprise to any Twins fan who had the opportunity to observe Buxton's breakout showing. As usual the speedster was a spectacular force in the outfield, routinely taking away extra-base hits from the opposition and earning affinity from his pitchers. Meanwhile his bat finally emerged, as Buxton slashed .262/.314/.513 with 30 doubles, 14 home runs and four triples in 295 plate appearances. Looking vastly more comfortable at the plate after years of fits and starts, Buxton just played his game. He wasn't patient, but he was aggressive and intentional, reducing his career 32% K-rate to a far more palatable 23%. Because of his lineup depth, Rocco Baldelli was able to use Buxton as No. 9 hitter almost exclusively, keeping pressure off Buck's shoulders and also positioning him as a second leadoff man. Getting the league's fastest player on base as the lineup flips over gives the Twins a dynamic competitive advantage. That's beyond the simple fact of boasting an .827 OPS in the nine-hole, where American League peers averaged a .652 mark. Buxton seems very likely to return to that spot in this year's loaded batting order. Taking into account everything he adds, it's no coincidence Minnesota went 53-25 (.679) in games Buxton started last year, compared to 48-36 (.571) in those he didn't. For context, over a full season, that's the difference between a 110-win team and a 92-win team. Baseball is a game where the impact of individual contributors is inherently limited – what with nine players in the lineup and on the field, and 12-13 different pitchers in the mix at any given time. But when he's got it going like last year, Buxton makes an outsized impact that few others in the league can match. If you could guarantee me he'd be on the field and healthy for a vast majority of the Twins' games (however many they play), I'd pick the 26-year-old Buxton as preseason favorite for team MVP – ahead of Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, everyone – without hesitation. Unfortunately, as we all know, this is far from guaranteed. THE BAD Throughout his pro career, dating back to his days in the minors, Buxton has continually been unable to avoid injuries, thanks to a style of play that often puts him in harm's way (plus a healthy dose of bad luck). Jammed thumbs, strained wrists, concussions, a broken toe... the center fielder has seen it all, and as a result he's played in 100 games only once in an MLB season since first arriving in 2015. His collision with the wall in Miami last August was not only another sobering reminder of the hazards incumbent in Buxton's game, but especially worrisome because of what it did to his shoulder. Buxton suffered a subluxation (or dislocation, essentially), and after the rest-and-rehab approach failed to take, he required surgery to repair his labrum. It's a pretty serious procedure, which is why six months later, he still wasn't quite ready to appear in spring training games and the Twins weren't fully committing to his Opening Day readiness. Having said that, all indications suggest things are going smoothly and with the delayed start to the season, he's got a good shot at being out there from the jump. But even if he's available for Game 1, it's gonna be tough for anyone to trust in Buxton's ability to stay consistently available for the balance of the season. As much as injury-prone tends to be a miscast label, it's one of the only things Buxton can't run away from. Life without their star center fielder is something the Twins have sadly grown accustomed to over the years, and they are fairly well equipped for it. Last season Kepler made 53 starts in center while the starter was sidelined, and he was perfectly serviceable there. It's a big part of the reason we named him our 2019 team MVP. Kepler remains an option if Buxton goes down for any length of time, and it wouldn't be entirely surprising to see him in center field on Opening Day. But it sounds as though the Twins would prefer to avoid taking Kepler out of right field, so they may be more inclined to go with LaMonte Wade Jr. or Jake Cave, especially in a shorter-term absence. Each has proven himself capable defensively there – albeit Cave to a lesser extent – and can hit enough to be a viable starter. A true backup center fielder is one of the few things missing on this roster, but I think the Twins are in decent shape make do. In the minors, much hinges on No. 1 prospect Royce Lewis and where he ends up. When he was drafted as a shortstop, many believed he was destined to end up in center, due to his rough edges as an infielder and his blazing speed. Every one of his defensive starts in the minors had come at short until his second-to-last one at Pensacola in September, when he was in center. He then started primarily out there in the Arizona Fall League, where he looked like a natural and was voted MVP. Lewis might be the heir apparent behind Buxton, who's still under team control for three more years. But in order to actualize such a plan, the Twins will need to get their top prospect more outfield reps. For the time being, it looks like they're intent on sticking with him at shortstop, leaving 21-year-old Gilberto Celestino as the most promising center fielder in the system. THE BOTTOM LINE Buxton is the most exciting wild-card factor in play for the 2020 Minnesota Twins. If his surgery takes and he returns to the field without losing anything, he'll be a transformative force for the lineup, defense, and pitching staff. If he can manage to stay out there, he elevates this team in drastic ways. But, if history repeats and he can't stay out there, the Twins are in better shape than most teams would be when losing a cornerstone talent. Kepler makes for a fine fill-in, and opens the door for Minnesota to tap its copious corner outfield depth in right. The Twins will be okay without Buxton. But with him? They might be unstoppable. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Left Field MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

People aren't giving Eddie heat over his home run total. There's a lot more that goes into being an effective ballplayer. Anyway, as noted in the article, he ranked 61st in SLG last year (and tied for 39th in HR). His best skill wasn't that much of a standout trait.

The pressure is on for Eddie Rosario. Coming off a substandard season, with free agency inching closer and top prospects pressing upward from beneath, the fiery left field incumbent is on the hot seat. Then again, Rosario does have a historical habit of rising to the occasion.Projected Starter: Eddie Rosario Likely Backup: Marwin Gonzalez Depth: Jake Cave, LaMonte Wade Jr. Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach THE GOOD I have ridden the Rosario rollercoaster. After the 2018 season, I wrote an article honoring him as Twins Daily's MVP. A year later, I was openly wondering if his dramatic drop-off in performance might cause a valuation rift with the team. I've seen people say he is the team's most essential player, and I've seen people say he's the team's fourth-best outfielder. Clearly, there are a lot of differing views on Rosario. But I do know of two people who clearly view him very highly: Paul Molitor and Rocco Baldelli. The left fielder was Opening Day cleanup hitter in Molitor's last year as manager, and in Baldelli's first. As a matter of fact, Rosario batted fourth in a whopping 127 of Minnesota's 162 games last year, plus all three in the playoffs. He anchored an offense that scored 939 runs and set the MLB home run record. Yes, this did inflate his gaudy RBI total (109) but still, hitting 32 home runs and slugging .500 in a down year is pretty telling. Baldelli never wavered in making him a central lineup fixture, because Rosario kept rewarding his faith. There was no inherent loyalty influencing the decisions. Eddie simply produced when it counted, slashing .340/.370/.538 with runners in scoring position and a nearly identical .324/.360/.539 in high leverage. Over the two seasons preceding 2019, Rosario was second among Twins players in fWAR, edged slightly by Brian Dozier. His built-up cred and a continuing flair for clutchness kept him high in the manager's esteem, even while Rosario battled through a campaign that was undeniably trying in some ways. There's evidence his lapses may have been injury-impacted. The really good news is this: If Rosario can't buck his downward trend, the Twins are absolutely loaded with outfielders. Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade Jr. are readily available, and could hold their own as big-league starters. In the minor-leagues, Brent Rooker is ready to step in now after mashing as Rochester's left fielder last year. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach are also top-tier hitting prospects verging on MLB-readiness, and while both have played much more right field than left in the minors, there's little doubt the Twins would be fine rolling either one out to LF if Rosario falters. The organization's corner outfield depth is phenomenal, and will likely come into play here much sooner than in right. One way or another. THE BAD On June 26th, Rosario rolled his ankle while charging around first base in a home game against the Rays. Coming up with a limp, he spiked his helmet into the ground, immediately recognizing the gravity of a season-altering injury. His frustration was understandable. Rosario was in the zone at the time. His OPS sat at .841 and was heading north, thanks to a patented hot streak: In his past 10 games, he had a .413 average. Despite the seemingly serious nature of the injury, he returned to action a mere three weeks later. But he wasn't the same. Rosario slashed .268/.286/.465 the rest of the way, and his already iffy defense completely tanked alongside his sprint speed, as chronicled in an excellent column from Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic. Healthy after a winter of rest, Rosario has vowed to recapture his previous form. But his running and defense weren't really strong points beforehand, and late-season dropoffs have now become a trend; in 2018 a first-half .890 OPS gave way to a .622 OPS in the second half. Rosario's 2018 tailspin also carried injury implications – a quad strain he fought through before it ended his season in mid-September – but in both cases, the outfielder's well-intentioned tenacity ended up hurting more than helping. Another flaw in Rosario's 2019 cannot be attributed as cleanly to a limited ankle. He showed zero patience at the plate, giving in to his worst tendencies by chasing a league-high and career-high 46.3% of pitches outside the zone. This surprisingly didn't translate to an avalanche of swings-and-misses (Rosario's whiff rate and K-rate were actually both career lows), but it did result in a TON of weak contact as he constantly offered at pitcher's pitches. The occasional big blasts were enough to keep his slugging numbers afloat, but Rosario finished with a horrendous .300 on-base percentage, seventh-worst among qualified hitters. Modern statisticians generally agree that OBP is more valuable than slugging, and that's all the more true in this power-laden era. Rosario's .500 SLG ranked 61st among qualified hitters last year, whereas great on-base guys are harder to come by. THE BOTTOM LINE If Rosario is making outs at a 70% rate and playing sub par defense in left field, he's really not much an asset, theatrics aside. His 1.2 fWAR in 2019, which ranked 11th among Twins position players, might understate the totality of his impact, but an energetic presence and flare for dramatics won't offset Eddie's negatives if they persist – not with his price rising (he'll make $7.75 million this year), his free agency approaching (he's eligible after next season), and premier talents increasingly pushing from below. I haven't been shy about expressing my disappointment with Rosario's 2019 campaign, but I think it's a mistake to write him off. He's a tremendously skilled player, still only 28 years old, humbled and determined. I like his chances to bounce back, and even if he doesn't, the number of quality fallback options is reassuring. Left field is in good shape for the Minnesota Twins. One way or another. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Shortstop MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I can't claim to know the details behind it, but Blankenhorn made a total of 2 starts at 3B last year, including zero at Pensacola, where there wasn't really much high-level competition for reps (Caleb Hamilton and Joe Cronin led the team in 3B starts). On this basis, I have a hard time believing he'd be any kind of short-term option there in the majors. Then again, Jorge Polanco had pretty much fully moved off short in the minors before returning there full-time in MLB. So who knows.

The biggest free agent splash in Twins history is here to power up a reigning division winner, which likely would've been favored to make the playoffs in 2020 even without him. What is Josh Donaldson's impact at third base, and how big of a difference-maker can he be?Projected Starter: Josh Donaldson Likely Backup: Marwin Gonzalez Depth: Ehire Adrianza, Willians Astudillo Prospects: Jose Miranda, Keoni Cavaco THE GOOD The Twins paid a pretty penny to acquire Donaldson's services, shattering the franchise record in January by inking him to a four-year deal worth $92 million. But their investment is well warranted, given his ability to enhance the roster in a multitude of ways. First, there's his leadership and experience. Donaldson has played in more than 1,000 MLB games, accrued more than 40 fWAR, been named to three All-Star teams, and won an MVP award. Already, young Twins hitters have been flocking to him in camp, and just as he hinted upon signing, the veteran slugger has been eager to offer insight and guidance. But in more tangible respects, Donaldson delivers a clear and decisive upgrade to this Twins club. Offensively, he's another high-octane power hitter joining a lineup full of them; it says a lot that Donaldson's .900 OPS and 37 home runs from 2019 don't especially stand out amongst his new teammates. But of course, adding another high-end bat is always a good thing, and Donaldson has a lengthier track record of production at this level than anyone, except 39-year-old Nelson Cruz. Donaldson's Statcast charts are a sight to behold. (Red means elite. There's a lot of red here.) Download attachment: donaldsonsliders.png Download attachment: donaldsonstats.png Over a very large sample, Donaldson has flat-out clobbered baseballs with regularity. His average exit velocity and barrel rate both ranked among the top 8% of all hitters in four of the past five seasons (excepting only an injury-plagued 2018). If healthy, he's going to mash. Period. There's no one else on the roster we can say this about so confidently. But aside from joining the bomba parade, Donaldson also brings something unique to the Twins lineup: patience. The far-right column in the stat sheet above shows his BB rates, which have ranked in the top 4% of all MLB hitters in each of his last three healthy seasons. Only four qualified American Leaguers – Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Daniel Vogelbach, Carlos Santana – walked at a higher clip last year than Donaldson, who drew 100 free passes for the Braves. This skill manifests itself both overtly and more subtly. On 100 occasions, the slugger strolled to first base and set up a teammate (often Freddie Freeman) to do damage. But there's an attrition factor too. Donaldson grinds ABs. He rarely chases out of the zone, and averaged more pitches per plate appearance last year than Cruz or Luis Arraez (who were both above the league average). When he's in the box, the distinguished veteran places immense pressure on pitchers, luring them into nerve-racking deep counts and frequently capitalizing. From the very start of an AB, his opponent is under the gun. I think this stat kinda says it all: So clearly, Donaldson is a monumental addition to the lineup. Almost any other year, it'd feel like a transformative one, but given this team's makeup before he joined, Donaldson's biggest impact might actually be felt on defense. A variety of metrics – from Statcast's Outs Above Average (94th percentile) to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (second among MLB third basemen at plus-15) – ranked him last year among the league's finest at his position. He's replacing a player in Miguel Sano who was in the 8th percentile for OAA, and who cost his team an additional 20 runs defensively compared to Donaldson, according to his negative-5 DRS. THE BAD There's pretty much zero not to like about Donaldson, but when you look past him on the depth chart, and in the pipeline, things get bleak in a hurry. Sizing up the long-term picture at third base, it suddenly becomes much easier to see why the Twins were willing to go four years with the 34-year-old, and why they'll need to hope he can hang at the hot corner for some time. Our recently released Top 20 prospects list featured one part-time third baseman – Jose Miranda, at No. 20. Even the honorable mentions were devoid of players at this position. I listed 2019 first-round draft pick and current shortstop Keoni Cavaco as a future option here, merely because he played third base in high school and there's some thought he will end up there in the long run. But he's 18. The short-term depth also isn't great. Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza are fine fill-ins, but either one would probably be stretched as starter over a prolonged period. It would actually be interesting to see what would happen if Donaldson were to go down for a while. Would the Twins move Sano back across the diamond? Would they slide over Arraez, who started 15 games at third as a rookie, and tap into their superior depth at second base? Or would they leave the right side of their infield alone and just let the utilitymen hold it down? Hopefully we won't need to find out. Donaldson played in all but seven games for Atlanta last year, and has generally been an iron man with the exception of 2017 and 2018, when he missed a full season's worth of games due to recurring calf issues. His 2019 was very reassuring, but at 34, nothing can be taken for granted. THE BOTTOM LINE It's Donaldson, then a massive dropoff. Examining the organizational depth at third base behind Minnesota's new corner-infield cornerstone really brings into focus the magnitude of his addition. The Twins will get by without him if need be – they were planning around that possibility, as negotiations dragged throughout the winter and at one point looked bleak – but he lifts both their offense and defense by a full notch. "The Minnesota Twins will never be the same. This is a transformational signing," Matthew Trueblood wrote here the night it went down. As the season approaches, that now feels clearer than ever. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Second Base MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Just like first base, the Twins are committing to a new long-term fixture at second in 2020, after a brief transition period in 2019 followed the departure of a franchise mainstay. With a spectacular MLB debut, Luis Arraez firmly embedded himself in the team's plans.Projected Starter: Luis Arraez Likely Backup: Ehire Adrianza Depth: Marwin Gonzalez, Willians Astudillo Prospects: Travis Blankenhorn, Nick Gordon THE GOOD Arraez's rookie season was a smorgasbord of remarkable moments and accomplishments. He arrived in Minnesota as a 22-year-old with little experience above Double-A, and proceeded to lead the American League in batting average (.334) after the date of his call-up (May 18th). He showed amazing plate discipline and contact skills, striking out at the lowest rate in the majors while walking at a solid clip to buoy an outstanding on-base percentage. He held his own defensively at second base in spite of a limited physical toolset, and he even went out and played a capable left field now and then for good measure. Despite his greenness and lack of prestige, Arraez performed brilliantly, both when it counted and when the count was against him: In "Late & Close" situations, he slashed .346/.404/.442. (MLB average: .237/.320/.404.)In "High Leverage" situations, he slashed .429/.481/.531. (MLB average: .253/.327/.432.)In ABs where he fell behind 0-2 against opposing pitchers, he slashed .286/.314/.327. (League average: .165/.197/.267.)Because of all this, Arraez – a relative unknown at the start of the year – was able to wrest away the starting job from Jonathan Schoop, a veteran making $7 million and enjoying an altogether productive season. Late in the season, Arraez suffered a scary-looking ankle injury while fielding a fly ball, and the crushingly dismayed reactions that poured out from fans, players, and coaches alike at the time says all you need to know about how indispensable the second baseman made himself in a mere 92 games. Needless to say, second base belongs to him going forward, and that's something to feel good about. He probably won't hit .334 perpetually, but his approach at the plate is conducive to steadily remaining in the three hundreds. Sure enough, all five projection systems on FanGraphs having him batting between .309 and .312 this season, with an OBP in the .370 range. That'll play anywhere in the order, but it'd be surprising if Arraez doesn't hit near the top. He doesn't run that well, nor does he produce a ton of pop, but he's a very functional piece in this Twins lineup, which offers plentiful power and speed elsewhere. Defensively he will probably never be a true standout but he's adequate, with the chance to grow some more. Still 22 on Opening Day and under team control through 2025, Arraez has suddenly turned into a heck of an asset for the Twins. THE BAD It was only 92 games. Arraez's first season in the majors was about as convincing as it gets, but the fact remains: it's a small sample and he hardly has the bona fides to back it up. It's true that Arraez's .334/.399/.439 slash as a rookie is almost eerily consistent with his .331/.385/.414 line in the minors, but there was always a valid skepticism around his ability to translate that production to the highest level, thus explaining his absence from the national prospect radar (and even our own Top 20 list) ahead of his debut. Arraez is not unathletic. No one in the big leagues is. But he doesn't possess the physical gifts of a Schoop or Jorge Polanco. The stubby 5-foot-10 second baseman isn't a burner, doesn't have a big arm, and isn't a musclebound specimen like those surrounding him in the infield. So he has to make up for it in other ways. He excels in the mental aspects of the game, with a sophisticated understanding of the strike zone and stunning level of confidence for his age. His technique enables him to get the bat on the ball almost anywhere in the zone, producing a 2.8% swinging strike rate that was the league's lowest. This isn't to say he was making especially hard contact, however. As the Statcast data reflects, Arraez ranked near the bottom of all MLB hitters when it comes to exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and expected slugging percentage. Download attachment: arraezstatcast.png Maintaining his level of production will require Arraez to keep making the absolute most of his skill set, while fending off counter-adjustments from the best pitchers and scouting departments in the world. One thing we can probably expect in his first full season is a heavier dose of pitches on the inside part of the plate, where he was clearly less effective. Download attachment: arraezzone.png As long as he keeps laying off non-strikes, while connecting on everything in the zone, Arraez has a fairly high floor. But we might've very well seen his ceiling as a rookie. It's awfully difficult to routinely prop an MLB batting average well above .300, especially when you're more reliant on batted-ball placement than propulsion. Arraez's game is essentially dependent on this. Then again, he's 22. At the same age, Brian Dozier was a light hitter in A-ball, mustering a .349 slugging percentage. If Arraez muscles up and adds a bit more power while aging into his mid-20s, all bets are off. THE BOTTOM LINE Arraez is locked in. Seeing how well he can back up his sensational rookie season will of course be the most interesting and important story to track this year, but I'm also curious to see how things shake out with Nick Gordon. The combination of Polanco and Arraez, both controllable through 2025, presents a seemingly impenetrable middle-infield barrier for the former fifth overall draft pick, who is 24 and made a case for his readiness with an .800 OPS in Triple-A last year. A prolonged absence, or total unraveling, from Arraez is essentially Gordon's only path to a major-league opportunity with this organization. That's nice insurance to have in place, I suppose, but the Twins do already have Gonzalez and Adrianza available and are without starting positions in the majors. I feel a little bad for Gordon, whose diminished stock doesn't erase an outstanding pedigree and solid record of minor-league production through Triple-A. Which is all a long way of saying that the meteoric rise of Arraez has fundamentally reshaped Minnesota's outlook at second base, creating an abundance of depth that is actually a tiny bit problematic. (Gordon's 40-man roster spot could soon come under scrutiny.) A good problem to have, as they say. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2020 Position Analysis: First Base MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I mean it's not like they stand on the bags so we're ballparking it here. (Has that phrase ever been used more appropriately?)

Tibia, fibia ... tomay-to, tomah-to. Seriously, thanks for pointing out. Fixed.

After going with C.J. Cron as an interstitial stopgap for one year, the Twins are moving forward with their new long-term fixture at first base. Miguel Sano, contract extension fresh in hand, will be relocating 120 feet away as Josh Donaldson takes over the hot corner. If all goes to plan, these two powerful presences will be lining up across the diamond from one another for many years to come. The only uncertainty in this vision lies on Sano's end.Projected Starter: Miguel Sano Likely Backup: Marwin Gonzalez Depth: Ehire Adrianza, Mitch Garver Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Brent Rooker THE GOOD Sano's bat will play just as well at the new position. His 137 wRC+ last year ranked fourth among MLB third baseman (400+ PA) and would've ranked fourth among first basemen. Rebounding in convincing fashion from a tumultuous 2018, Sano blasted 34 homers with 79 RBIs in just 105 games after joining the team in mid-May, entrenching himself as one of the game's most feared sluggers. Controversy and drama have followed Sano into camp the last two springs – a sexual assault investigation in 2018 and a questionably-treated heel laceration in 2019 – but this year he refreshingly arrives with no added baggage (or bandage). To the contrary: Sano's place with the team is more secure than ever, after the front office committed to him through 2022 with a new deal in January. For his part, Sano is doing and saying all the right things. With no resistance, he gave up his previous position to facilitate the Donaldson signing – in fact, he played a role in recruiting the star free agent. By all accounts Sano is in phenomenal shape this spring. Rocco Baldelli opined that the 26-year-old "looks like a supreme athlete" and when you look at pictures from Fort Myers, it's hard to disagree. Obviously, Sano is built to absolutely annihilate baseballs, and he does that. He isn't necessary built to play third base. While his magnificent arm was more than up to the task, Sano's size and movements just didn't lend themselves to the demands of the hot corner, and as a result he rated statistically as one of the league's worst defenders there. It's easier to see a fit for him at first base, where Sano's lack of mobility is downplayed considerably. At 6-foot-4 he offers a big target for infielders, and he knows how to handle a fast-arriving hotshot or rocket down the line. We have only a limited sample to draw from, given that Sano's played a total of 223 major-league innings at first, but he looks perfectly capable. THE BAD Entering his sixth MLB season, with newfound stability and security in the organization, Sano still has much to prove. He needs to prove he can play first base. Joe Mauer was a Gold Glove caliber defender there before giving way to Cron, who also showed very well with the glove. Sano has a high bar to live up to, and the stakes are also high. Neither of Minnesota's starting middle infielders (Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco) have particularly strong arms, so the new first baseman could be tested frequently. On the list of foreseeable pain points for a team that is generally very sound in its construction and outlook, this ranks pretty high. He needs to prove he can avoid falling into vacuous pits at the plate. While he might always be a streaky hitter, the cold spells where Sano whiffs relentlessly over expended periods are tough to stomach – especially when they're poorly timed. Can the Twins count on him to be at his best when they need him? The slugger provided one of the most memorable highlights of 2019, helping vault Minnesota to the playoffs with a grand slam in Cleveland, but mostly disappeared once they reached October; in the ALDS, Sano hit a solo home run but otherwise went 0-for-11 with eight strikeouts. Most of all, he needs to prove he can stay on the field. The Twins will live with growing pains at first base and occasional slumps at the plate so long as Sano can actually hold up over the course of a season, which would be a first. In his five big-league campaigns, he has never played in more than 116 games. His surgically reconstructed elbow and titanium-infused tibia are proof enough of what his body has been through. On this front, just like the two cited before it, there is reason for optimism. Sano had no significant durability issues after his late start last year, and importantly, gave no indication that his left leg was still a major concern. It's evident he put in some serious work on himself physically over this past winter. The chances are good that in 2020 we finally get a full season from Sano, and it'll be fascinating to see what kind of production he can put forth if we do. In the event he has to miss time again, the Twins aren't hurting for depth at first base, although the offensive drop-off would be substantial with present options. Marwin Gonzalez is the top backup, with Ehire Adrianza able to fill in as well. Were Sano to face a lengthier absence, Minnesota would probably need to find a better solution, like shifting Mitch Garver to first or calling up Alex Kirilloff or Brent Rooker. THE BOTTOM LINE No one should underestimate the challenges of adapting to a new full-time position. First base might be on the far end of the defensive spectrum, but in the famous words of Ron Washington in Moneyball, it's still incredibly hard. Sano will grapple with added pressure in his transition, learning on the fly for a club with championship aspirations, while potentially dealing with a higher-than-normal volume of errant or skipped throws. Having said that, he has all the attributes to quickly become one of the game's top first basemen. He's a huge, powerful guy just entering his prime. The future of first base for the Twins would appear to be in very good hands. ~~~ Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Catcher MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article