Nick Nelson

In both the postseason and offseason, Twins fans have grown accustomed to letdowns. The franchise's historical run of futility in October is exacerbated by (and maybe reinforced by) its routine shortcomings in the months that follow. By snapping one of those trends last week, Minnesota took a huge step toward ending the other.Much has of course been written about the baseball impact of signing Josh Donaldson. A few samplings to check out if you haven't yet: Josh Donaldson, Bringer of Rings by Matthew TruebloodFive Things Josh Donaldson Does Better Than Any of His New Teammates by Matthew TaylorDevil's Advocate: Why the Josh Donaldson Deal Isn't Good for the Twins by Matthew LenzWith Donaldson in the Fold, Can the Twins Afford to Wait Until the Deadline to Trade for Starting Pitching? by Nash WalkerBut today I wanted to zoom out and analyze the broader meaning of this move. What intrigues me is not just the Twins handing out a free agent contract that nearly doubles their previous record, but the way it went down. Over the years, fans have heard so many times that the Twins were "interested in" a top prize that landed elsewhere, or "made a strong offer" that came up short, or "didn't see a fit" for an expensive player who assuredly would've fit... It's understandable how so many came to feel jaded. Add in the history of trade deadline malaise, and the front office has earned its skepticism. However, it bears emphasizing: This ain't the same front office. I do think much of the "Twins are cheap" sentiment is engrained from an era where that claim was undeniably true; in the 2000s Terry Ryan would reliably sign no-upside bargain-bin players like Rondell White and Sidney Ponson to fill key holes on contending teams. The new regime, seemingly empowered from the start to bump spending upward, has proven far more willing to play in the medium-deep waters of free agency, with signings like Nelson Cruz ($24M), Jason Castro, ($24M), Marwin Gonzalez ($18M), and Addison Reed ($16M). Now, they've taken a dive into the deep end. This was a long time coming. Even in their more aggressive state, the Twins had continually come up short on the big fish – an angling pattern that carried over into this offseason, where they were unable to secure their top target in Zack Wheeler. As more pitching names came off the board, a familiar feeling began to set in, especially once reports arose that Minnesota had grown "pessimistic" in its pursuit of Donaldson, the last hope for a noteworthy FA addition. About a week later, the historic deal was done. What happened? The Twins were patient. They made an offer they felt was legit, and then they stood their ground, even as Donaldson and his agent (understandably) tried to leverage Minnesota's bid against the Braves and others. When reports emerged that the free agent would sign on the spot if someone reached his desired threshold ($110 million), the Twins didn't bite. In fact, they took a stand, by signaling via their own media transmissions that they were out on the posturing game. Despite their patience, however... The Twins were persistent. They never gave up. A story by Phil Miller in the Star Tribune details the team's recruiting efforts, which included a pitch from Rocco Baldelli, assurances from the front office about their commitment to winning, a video overture from Miguel Sano, and plenty of lobbying from Twins fan/golf star Mardy Fish. Eventually, the Twins also made a key improvement to their offer; according to Miller's piece, it was the addition of a fifth-year option with an $8 million buyout that jump-started talks and built momentum to close. Minnesota took that step because, at the end of the day... The Twins were serious. They wanted to spend that money. They wanted to make a splash. It wasn't all talk. But the front office wasn't going to spend it indiscriminately, and the relative value propositions (plus generally unfavorable circumstances) steered them away from the pitching market. After all the offseason near-misses and no-thankses, this time the Twins wouldn't be denied. While I'm sure all the aforementioned pitches and perks helped to lure Donaldson, he makes no secret of what swayed him: money. "Ultimately the financials were where they needed to be for my agent and my family and everybody to feel very happy with it," Donaldson said in an interview with Sports Illustrated. He added in an interview with Atlanta's WSB-TV that other offers were "not in the same realm." It is refreshing and almost surreal to hear those quotes about a free agent showdown that the Twins actually WON, isn't it? For them to be throwing around their weight in pursuit of a coveted, elite talent – who was also chased by a regional favorite and the defending champions – completely shatters a long-running narrative. Now, this doesn't erase the team's history, but it's hopefully another signal of the new reality: The Twins are ready to be definitive players in the American League. With the contention window flung open, they're moving to "put their foot on someone's throat," as GM Thad Levine put it. The front office convinced Donaldson of this, and by successfully doing so, they're convincing me and fellow followers of the club. The impacts of this new acquisition on the Twins lineup and on their infield defense are immense, but we shouldn't overlook its corresponding impact on fan morale and confidence. This is a game-changer. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Bringer of Rain is joining the Bomba Squad. According to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, the Minnesota Twins have agreed with free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson on a four-year contract.Yes folks, it is really happening. The Twins have made a precedent-shattering free agent splash. No, he's not a pitcher. And there are likely still moves to come on that front. But Donaldson does figure to have a positive impact on run prevention. The bat is his featured strength, and rightfully so, but this acquisition helps the pitching staff. Don't overlook that. In general, this is a huge name and a huge get for the Twins. Since 2014, Donaldson ranks third among position players in fWAR (behind only Mike Trout in Mookie Betts). He's a superstar addition to an already loaded lineup, though it's valid to wonder how this contract will age in Years 3 and 4. Donaldson turned 34 in December. We'll update with more details as they come in. How are you feeling about the biggest free agent signing in Twins history? What needs to happen next? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

To your point, it is striking to me that Morrison — who has pretty much always played for smaller-market underdog types — named all big-market heavy hitters in his accusations. You can bet that he'll be contacted by MLB investigators in efforts to substantiate his claims though. Who knows what kind of evidence or references he might be able tp provide. LOL. I didn't even notice what his shirt said when I selected that but, yeah, takes on an all-new meaning doesn't it?

100%. I have no problem with a guy on second base trying to signal to the guy at home. Part of the game. But using video crosses a line, starkly.

On Monday, sanctions came down on the Houston Astros following the revelation of their illegal sign-stealing practices. Soon after, a former Minnesota Twin spoke out and suggested that this issue runs deeper than anyone wants to believe. One wonders if we're just scratching the surface.The penalties levied upon the Astros were fairly severe, especially after the ripple effects played out. Manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow received one-year bans from MLB before being promptly fired by owner Jim Crane. Houston also forfeited several high draft picks and received a fine. Alex Cora, who reportedly helped orchestrate the cheating – and, as you may recall, threw a fit last year by falsely accusing Eddie Rosario of breaking the rules on a bunt – is certainly destined for a lengthy ban of his own. That's all well and good, but does little to mollify the concerns of a longtime baseball fan like myself. Ever since this scandal first surfaced – through the exceptional reporting work of Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drelich – I've found myself asking: how deep does this go? It's hard to believe the Astros are an isolated case. Hours after the bombshell, Logan Morrison weighed in on Instagram, adding some perturbing insights of his own. "So many teams are doing this," he wrote. "I know from first hand accounts that the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, and Red Sox all have used film to steal signs." How credible is this latest allegation? Who knows. But the decisive action by the commissioner against Houston leaves no doubt as to the verified gravity of these offenses for at least one team, and we're only starting to learn the truth. Baseball's player association is a brotherhood, and sometimes the loyalty can manifest in negative ways. It did when the steroid epidemic of the '90s ran rampant, unspoken. Unspoken, that is, until the cracks begin to creep up. By 2003, David Wells was proclaiming that, "As of right now, I'd estimate 25 to 40 percent of all major leaguers are juiced. But that number's fast rising." Are Mike Fiers and Morrison merely the first to shed light on a lurking corruption at the game's core? You might not be inclined to put these transgressions at the level of PEDs, but the benefit of knowing what pitch is coming? Especially when you're a good hitter, in a big spot? That can't be downplayed. Depending on the depth and extent of these activities, it's entirely possible that history was altered in significant ways by foul play. As a fan of the Twins, who have not to my knowledge been referenced in connection with any of these activities? Well, I can't help but think about the 123 runs the Astros have scored in 19 games against Minnesota since 2017, when they won a now-tainted World Series. I can't help but think about the unbelievable hypocrisy of Cora, and the dark cloud that now hovers over Boston's championship in 2018. And given that New York was the first team mentioned by Morrison in his own remarks, I can't help but think about all those times over the years that Yankees hitters seemed to be sitting on the right pitch, at the right time, and dispatching the Twins with almost surreal consistency. Especially in the playoffs. Bitterness? You could say so. And maybe my own favorite team will be implicated at some point. No possibilities can be ruled out at a time where offense and home runs have gone absolutely bananas and the once-scrappy Twins are leading the revolution. But for now, I choose to believe in the integrity of this franchise, and the people running it. Under this belief, the notion that an already disadvantaged team may be having the deck further stacked against it, by rampant and seemingly unrepentant cheating? It's gut-wrenching. Not just as a Twins fan, but as a baseball fan. Rob Manfred faces a crisis. To ignore it would be to dismiss any plausibility of a level playing field, in a sport where that ideal has always been under assault. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I don't think people are bothered by the Twins' initial offer so much as the fact that they wouldn't simply accept Berrios's number and call it a day. I get that the front office finds it important to stand their ground in these cases, to keep precedents in place for the future, but this seems like an instance where it makes sense to deviate from that philosophy. Keeping him happy is just too critical. Having said that, perhaps this is part of a negotiation tactic for hammering out a long-term deal. Now, the Twins can give the appearance that they're "giving" something by pushing JB's salary to $4.4 or higher in the first year. I will note though that the likelihood of an arbitration hearing is much higher than you allude. Teams generally follow the "file and trial" approach now, so unless an extension is reached, it's highly probable his case will go before a panel. And that's just far from ideal.

It's been more than a month since we last took stock of the Minnesota Twins' offseason, and while the big splash still hasn't materialized, there's been plenty of activity. Scroll down for an update on the 2020 roster, payroll, coaching staff, and path forward. Pitchers and catchers report to Ft. Myers in one month.With Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard, Homer Bailey, and Rich Hill now in the mix, here's a projection of the 2020 roster and payroll as of today. (Arbitration-eligible players now mostly have salaries locked in, but there a couple of assumptions highlighted in blue, which I'll discuss shortly.) Download attachment: roster112.png Current payroll commitment checks in around $118 million, putting the Twins almost exactly on par with 2019 ($119.6 million, per Baseball Prospectus). TWINS AND BERRIOS HEADED FOR HEARING? Arguably the most important player up for arbitration this year happens to be the only one Minnesota was unable to reach agreement with. Unless they can work something out within the next month or so, the Twins and Jose Berrios will go before an arbitration panel to decide his 2020 salary. The two sides are currently about a half-million apart, with the Twins submitting an offer of $4.025 million and the pitcher's camp requesting $4.4 million. For what it's worth, Twins Daily's Offseason Handbook projected a $4.5 million salary for Berrios, while MLB Trade Rumors projected considerably higher at $5.4 million. By either of those estimates, the number put forth by Berrios and his agent seems quite fair, although I'm sure the Twins front office arrived at its own figure through a mathematical calculation based on precedent. Nonetheless, the optics here aren't great, especially when considering historical context. Last offseason, the Twins approached Berrios and his agent about a pre-arb extension, but talks fizzled as the offer wasn't deemed up to snuff. Then, in July when Minnesota traded reliever Mike Morin to the Phillies for cash, Berrios posted (and deleted) a tweet that said, "They just want to get money … I wish you the best my man!" It's probably a reach to suggest there's a schism between player and team, but the lack of alignment here is a bit disappointing. Going through the arbitration hearing process can be contentious, so it's hard to imagine that scenario having any sort of positive impact on the relationship. Worth noting: Aaron Nola, whose extension with Philadelphia is often pointed toward as the best precedent for a Berrios contract framework, was at odds with the Phillies on his first arbitration number a year ago; the gap was much wider in that case, as he submitted $6.75 million while the club countered with $4.5 million. One month later, his long-term deal was announced at four years and $45 million. It's hard to imagine why either side would flinch at similar terms in the case of Berrios. For now, the payroll projection above assumes he wins an arbitration hearing and remains year-to-year. SANO EXTENDED While the Twins haven't been able to lock up Berrios, they did get a deal done with another core piece: Miguel Sano signed a three-year, $30 million extension, which includes a $14 million option (and $3 million buyout) for 2023 – his age-30 season. It's yet another very favorable deal for the Twins, who gain cost-efficient control of an elite slugging talent in his prime. I ranked Sano as the organization's 11th-most valuable asset in last week's series, but this contract – doubling his team control from two to four years at friendly rates – would move him up a couple of slots (I'm thinking to No. 9, after Jordan Balazovic and ahead of Alex Kirilloff). I still haven't seen detailed specifics on Sano's annual breakdown. FanGraphs has these numbers listed as a guesstimate in their payroll resource: 2020: $10M2021: $9M2022: $8M2023: $14M option ($3M buyout)That would be a very unusual structure for a deal like this, but it'd certainly make a lot of sense for the Twins given their situation, enabling them to take advantage of their extra spending room this year (while incentivizing Sano by nearly doubling his 2020 salary) and providing extra flexibility in '21 and '22. I went with the $10 million figure for 2020 in the projection, just to estimate on the high end, but I'm guessing we'll ultimately see a more traditionally progressive build-up (something like 7-9-11). An encouraging tidbit from Dan Hayes's writeup on the move at The Athletic: General manager Thad Levine said earlier this week that Sanó has continued with his offseason conditioning and that the slugger’s agent has inundated the front office with videos of Sanó working to improve his fitness. DONALDSON DRAMA DRAGS ON Josh Donaldson still hasn't signed anywhere, and that is fairly stunning given what we (think we) know. For some time, the free agent's market has been portrayed as a three-horse race between Atlanta, Washington, and Minnesota, with a return to the Braves being Donaldon's inherent preference. Well, the Nationals seem to be out of the running, since they've signed multiple infielders to guaranteed deals in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Phil Miller wrote an article for the Star Tribune indicating the Twins were "pessimistic" and "likely out of the running" for Donaldson. So the question is: what's the hold-up? Why hasn't the slugger signed in Atlanta yet? The only explanation I can see (barring at least one "mystery team" in the fray, which is very possible) is that he's still not entirely satisfied with their offer, and continues to try leveraging Minnesota and others. This would explain why the Twins have channeled the narrative publicly that they're moving on, and turning to the trade market. They'll probably need to go that route if they want any kind of legitimate upgrade at the hot corner short of Donaldson. On Sunday, Todd Frazier signed with the Rangers. He's one of the only other free agent infielders I've seen the Twins remotely connected to (not that I'd have considered him much of an impact addition). COACHING STAFF FINALIZED When we last checked in with an update post, the Twins still had two vacancies remaining on their coaching staff: bench coach and second pitching coach (previous occupants Derek Shelton and Jeremy Hefner moved on). Now, those spots have been filled. Mike Bell is the new bench coach, coming over from Arizona where he was vice president of player development. He's highly regarded, coming from "one of baseball's first families," and is viewed as a manager in waiting. By all accounts he looks like a great add as Rocco Baldelli's new right-hand man. More recently, the Twins rounded out their staff with the addition of Bob McClure as bullpen coach. Formerly a pitching coach for the Phillies, Red Sox, and Royals, the 67-year-old brings ample experience to a unit that is largely young and unseasoned. With former assistant hitting coach Rudy Hernandez getting the "assistant" removed from his title, here's how the Twins' 2020 coaching staff figures to shake out: Manager: Rocco Baldelli Hitting Coach: Edgar Varela Hitting Coach: Rudy Hernandez Pitching Coach: Wes Johnson Bullpen Coach: Bob McClure Bench Coach: Mike Bell MLB Coach: Bill Evers How are you feeling at this stage of the offseason? What moves do the Twins need to make for you to consider the winter a success? What's your level of confidence for a turnaround on Donaldson or a big trade? Sound off in the comments. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Yep, this is what I was getting in the third bullet point at the top, and why it's not exactly accurate to call this exercise a ranking of trade value. Very fair. I thought hard about it. Definitely reasonable to say Berrios is more irreplaceable at this moment. Ultimately, it came down to controlling Polanco and Kepler throughout their entire primes, while Berrios is on track to hit free agency right in the middle of his, at age 28. As things stand, Polanco can literally impact twice as many seasons for the Twins as Berrios. I suspect JB will sign an extension in spring training and the point will become moot.

Basically. The simple way I look at it, when comparing any two players, is: who would it hurt more to lose?

I'd actually argue that the comprehensive quality of the Twins lineup worked to Rosario's benefit last year. The MVP votes you reference were pretty much entirely due to his RBI total, which was pretty much entirely due to the ridiculous amount of run production opportunities he got. His warts would've been more noticeable if not for everyone around him crushing consistently. Is his offensive bar really that high to clear? Corey Dickerson was a significantly better hitter than Rosario last year, and has been for the past three years (121 OPS+ vs 114 OPS+). He signed with the Marlins as a free agent who wasn't in particularly high demand, and his contract (2 years $17.5M) is about the same as Rosario will make over the same span, if not less.

The fact that you have to add an "Even with the injury" caveat ahead of every statement on Buxton pretty much says it all. You don't have to convince me on his relative impact when healthy, but at this point it's all become so theoretical. You casually allude to Kepler's 4.4 fWAR, which is higher than any mark Buxton has posted in a longer career, and is in fact 60% of Buxton's career WAR. With 5 years of remaining control compared to 3 for Buck, Kepler is also likely to produce more fWAR as a Twin going forward. Add in the fact that Buxton is recovering from a significant shoulder surgery and we don't know how that's going to affect his timeline and performance upon returning, and the uncertainty amounts to a very reasonable argument IMO.

The fact that Graterol has already reached the majors, and succeeded there, should not be downplayed in this discussion. He's a month older than Balazovic (!), who hasn't pitched above A-ball yet. So yeah, Graterol has to prove he can start in the majors, but JB has a lot more to prove just to REACH the majors.

Today we wrap up our series ranking the 20 most critical assets in the Twins organization with a look at the Top 5. (Catch up on 6-through-20 by reading Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.) From my view, these are the foremost cornerstones around which the front office will build going forward.First, to reiterate the parameters and stipulations: Things that are factored into these rankings: production, age, upside, pedigree, health, length of team control, favorability of contract, positional scarcity (within the system, and generally).Players are people. Their value to the organization, and its fans, goes well beyond the strictly business-like scope we're using here. But for the purposes of this list, we're analyzing solely in terms of asset evaluation. Intangible qualities and popularity are not factors. (Sorry Willians.)The idea is to assess their importance to the future of the Minnesota Twins. In this regard, it's not exactly a ranking in terms of trade value, because that's dependent on another team's situation and needs. (For instance, Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade Jr. would be more valuable to many other teams than they are to the Twins, who are rich with short-term and long-term corner outfield depth.)This is a snapshot in time. Rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and where things stood as of the end of 2019.Current major-leaguers and prospects are all eligible. The ultimate goal here to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?Any questions or quibbles, holler in the comments. Let's continue the countdown. TOP 20 MINNESOTA TWINS ASSETS OF 2020 (1-5) 5. Royce Lewis, SS 2019 Ranking: 1 It was a trying year for Lewis. He slumped frequently and finished with a .236/.290/.371 slash line, striking out three times for every walk. The exaggerated leg lift in his swing came under greater scrutiny as he struggled against higher-level pitching. His defensive work at shortstop caused some analysts to harden in their stances that he's destined to switch positions. Even his trademark confidence was framed as a negative in one postseason Baseball America report. Through all this, the fact remains: He started the year as a 19-year-old and finished it at Double-A, punctuating his pedestrian regular season with an MVP performance in the Arizona Fall League. Lewis's elite physical tools haven't wavered, and most of his present shortcomings seem like the correctable flaws of a raw young talent. He still looks like a star in the making, even if that path is a bit less straight and short than initially hoped. 4. Brusdar Graterol, RHP 2019 Ranking: 5 Health was the big caveat attached to Graterol a year ago, as he vaulted into the national baseball consciousness with his triple-digit heater. His (in)ability to hold up rose to the forefront again this year, as the right-hander missed nearly two months with a shoulder impingement. But upon returning as a reliever in August, he did enough to restore all confidence – and then some. Ticketed for a late-inning impact on a contending club at age 20, Graterol made quick stops at Double-A and Triple-A before joining the Twins in September, where he was extremely impressive as a rookie. The 4.66 ERA is inflated by one poor outing against Cleveland – three earned runs, zero outs recorded – but the righty otherwise allowed two runs in 9 2/3 innings (1.86 ERA) with 10 strikeouts and only one walk. He added a perfect inning of work against New York in the ALDS, with two strikeouts. Durability remains a pre-eminent sticking point, as does the uncertainty around his future role, but the battle-tested Graterol is one of the most valuable arms in the game right now. 3. Jose Berrios, RHP 2019 Ranking: 2 Whereas Graterol is a poster child for the volatile health of pro pitchers, Berrios lives on the opposite end of the spectrum: a model of durability. He hasn't missed a start since joining the Twins rotation, and that's basically been the case ever since he was drafted. The right-hander checked off another accomplishment last year, reaching 200 innings for the first time, but for the most part he was his usual self: steadily excellent, just short of elite. Since being called up for good in May of 2017, Berrios ranks ninth among American League pitchers in fWAR. He's not quite an ace but looks the part at times, and as a 25-year-old he still has plenty of time to find another gear. As the only Twins starting pitcher under control beyond next year, he's the glue of the rotation. But with arbitration now upon him, Berrios is going to start getting expensive quickly and is three years from free agency. A sensible extension would move him to the top of this list. 2. Max Kepler, OF 2019 Ranking: 9 Pretty much the best thing a team can do to increase a player's asset valuation is lock him up with a long-term deal at an established baseline, only to have the player immediately reset that baseline. This is what happened with Kepler, who broke a three-year trend of good-not-great performance by taking a star turn in 2019, fresh off signing a team-friendly five-year contract. Despite missing the final two weeks as a shoulder injury plagued him, Kepler shattered career highs across the board and launched 36 homers. He's a top-shelf defensive right fielder and perfectly capable in center, which is especially valuable to the Twins given Buxton's frequent unavailability. Kepler's new contract, which can keep him under control through 2024 at bargain rates, gives Minnesota plenty of flexibility to continually build around the stud outfielder. 1. Jorge Polanco, SS 2019 Ranking: 7 At the end of the day, these rankings are about the big picture. When you take a step back, which players are most indispensable, when factoring in risk and contract value? As core players that signed favorable extensions just before immediately breaking out and achieving upper-echelon status, Kepler and Polanco naturally rose to the top under this framework. Between the two, I give Polanco a slight edge. First, he plays an extremely valuable defensive position – one that is otherwise not well accounted for in the system, especially with Lewis's question marks. Polanco doesn't play shortstop all that well but he can handle it. Second, he's even cheaper than Kepler with an even more favorable contract; Polanco is controlled through 2023 for just $17 million total, and has an additional two team options. All this, as a switch-hitting 25-year-old All-Star who received MVP votes in 2019. At this point, I see Polanco as he most valuable player to the organization, but he's not a superstar. Nor is Kepler, or Berrios. Getting a true premium player in this spot – whether because one of these three takes another step forward, or Buxton pulls it all together, or someone like Lewis emerges in a big way, OR the Twins swing a trade for a centerpiece-type asset (leveraging some of these assets to do so) – will be instrumental in this franchise turning the corner. They're definitely in good shape and on the right track, just not quite there. RECAPPING THE TOP 20 20. Ryan Jeffers, C 19. Eddie Rosario, OF 18. Michael Pineda, RHP 17. Nelson Cruz, DH 16. Tyler Duffey, RHP 15. Jake Odorizzi, RHP 14. Trevor Larnach, OF 13. Jhoan Duran, RHP 12. Taylor Rogers, LHP 11. Miguel Sano, 3B 10. Luis Arraez, 2B 9. Alex Kirilloff, OF 8. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 7. Byron Buxton OF 6. Mitch Garver, C 5. Royce Lewis, SS 4. Brusdar Graterol, RHP 3. Jose Berrios, RHP 2. Max Kepler, OF 1. Jorge Polanco, SS Click here to view the article

After covering Nos. 11 through 20 in Part 1 and Part 2 of these rankings, we're now venturing into the Top 10. These are foundational pieces in what the Twins are trying to accomplish; ranking these players against one another wasn't easy. Read on to see how it shook out.First, to reiterate the parameters and stipulations: Things that are factored into these rankings: production, age, upside, pedigree, health, length of team control, favorability of contract, positional scarcity (within the system, and generally).Players are people. Their value to the organization, and its fans, goes well beyond the strictly business-like scope we're using here. But for the purposes of this list, we're analyzing solely in terms of asset evaluation. Intangible qualities and popularity are not factors. (Sorry Willians.)The idea is to assess their importance to the future of the Minnesota Twins. In this regard, it's not exactly a ranking in terms of trade value, because that's dependent on another team's situation and needs. (For instance, Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade, Jr. would be more valuable to many other teams than they are to the Twins, who are rich with short-term and long-term corner outfield depth.)This is a snapshot in time. Rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and where things stood as of the end of 2019.Current major-leaguers and prospects are all eligible. The ultimate goal here to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?Any questions or quibbles, holler in the comments. Let's continue the countdown. TOP 20 MINNESOTA TWINS ASSETS OF 2020 (6-10) 10. Luis Arraez, 2B 2019 Ranking: NR Last offseason, the Twins briefly considered exposing Arraez to the Rule 5 draft but thought better of it, adding him to the 40-man roster one day after doing the same for Nick Gordon and LaMonte Wade, Jr. It was a wise decision to say the least. The scrappy and perpetually overlooked Arraez raked everywhere in 2019. He batted .342 at Double-A, .348 at Triple-A, and most impressively, .342 during a 92-game major-league debut that saw him finish sixth for AL Rookie of the Year. At age 22, Arraez was a disciplined OBP force, bringing balance to an aggressive and power-laden lineup. He showed solid defense at second and even looked capable in left. The upward trend with his power – he hit four homers with the Twins after totaling six in 367 minor-league games – hints toward offensive upside yet to be tapped. 9. Alex Kirilloff, OF 2019 Ranking: 4 Kirilloff didn't have a bad year in 2019. Taking on Double-A as a 21-year-old, he batted .283 with a .756 OPS in 94 games. Perfectly solid numbers given the context. But he didn't nearly match the excellence of his breakout 2018 campaign, and lost extensive time to a wrist injury, which is a tough developmental blow for a young player who missed all of 2017 due to Tommy John. Kirilloff remains the best pure hitting prospect in the organization, but the luster has worn off slightly and his indispensability has diminished somewhat with the continued rise of Trevor Larnach and others. This explains why Kirilloff ranks as a Top 10 asset rather than a Top 5 asset this time around, but he's still plenty valuable and exciting. 8. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 2019 Ranking: NR The same thought process that led to Jhoan Duran ranking 13th applies here: "Pitching prospects with high ceilings that are close to the major leagues are valuable to every franchise, and especially to the Twins in this moment." Balazovic is a bit further from the majors than Duran, having finished at High-A in 2019, but he's on a higher prospect tier. In fact, Balazovic is the best pitching prospect in the system who has yet to reach the majors. Duran has great stuff, but he lacks the consistent results to back it up. This is where Balazovic separates. Since joining the organization as a fifth-round pick in 2016, the right-hander has simply performed, registering a 3.32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 10.0 K/9 rate through his first 228 innings as a pro. At 6'5" and 214 lbs, he's a big sturdy athlete with a mid-90s fastball and advanced command. He was absolutely sensational in 2019, with a 2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 12.4 K/9 rate between two levels of A-ball at age 20, so his stock is riding high. Can he build upon it? 7. Byron Buxton, OF 2019 Ranking: 3 A healthy Buxton can be one of the most impactful difference-makers in Major League Baseball. This was the premise for ranking him No. 1 two years ago, and No. 3 last year. It was reinforced in 2019 when he was on the field, as the center fielder accrued 2.7 fWAR in just 87 games with an .827 OPS, 44 extra-base hits, 14 steals, and almost unparalleled defensive value. Alas, the overriding story of Buxton's season was, once again, injury. And it's one that spills over into 2020, as the 26-year-old is currently in the process of rehabbing from significant shoulder surgery. He's opened four different seasons with the Twins and played 100 games in only one of them. The mounting physical uncertainties make it impossible to trust his reliability going forward, making him feel like more of a bonus factor than centerpiece crux. And while free agency is still three years away, it's no longer a tiny blip on the horizon. With that said, if he can find a way to make it happen, a full healthy and productive season from Buxton will be more pivotal to Minnesota's championship hopes than any ace pitcher the Twins could sign or trade for. I firmly believe that. 6. Mitch Garver, C 2019 Ranking: 11 Is Garver the best catcher in baseball? Is he one of the best offensive backstops in MLB history? Will he be an MVP contender for years to come? Based entirely on the sample of his 2019 season, the answer to all those questions would be "yes," and he'd be No. 1 in these rankings with a bullet. But that sample amounts to only 93 games, and is so wildly out of line with his previous track record that it's tough to know exactly how to weight it. Garver has shown a knack for improving himself and disproving doubters, transforming from ninth-round draft pick to fringy catching prospect to bona fide big-league starter, but the leap last year was drastic by any standard. Thirty-one homers and a .995 OPS in 93 games, from a CATCHER (one with noticeably improved defense), is nuts. But it remains to be seen whether Garver was playing out of his mind for six months with a juiced ball, or setting a new norm. It bears noting that he turns 29 next week, making him the oldest player in this Top 10 by a sizable margin, and the only one who's not on the front end of his physical prime. Regardless, Garver has clearly established himself as a long-term building block, with four years of team control remaining. RECAPPING THE RANKINGS SO FAR: 20. Ryan Jeffers, C 19. Eddie Rosario, OF 18. Michael Pineda, RHP 17. Nelson Cruz, DH 16. Tyler Duffey, RHP 15. Jake Odorizzi, RHP 14. Trevor Larnach, OF 13. Jhoan Duran, RHP 12. Taylor Rogers, LHP 11. Miguel Sano, 3B 10. Luis Arraez, 2B 9. Alex Kirilloff, OF 8. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 7. Byron Buxton OF 6. Mitch Garver, C Check back in tomorrow for Part 4. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

This is a debate perhaps better saved for the installment Arraez appears in, but a few points to make regarding Sano vs. Arraez: 2 years of team control vs 5 yearsCorner IF vs middle IF26 years old vs 22 years old$15m+ over the next two years vs ~$1m over the next two yearsHealth/durability I think Arraez would return more in a trade right now personally, but zeroing in on the scope of this discussion, I think he's more important to the Twins because his OBP/discipline are more scarce to the team than Sano's aggressive power. But it's close (as you'll see) and a valid argument.

Too high or too low?

It's hard for a straight-up reliever to crack the top 10 on a list like this. Rogers did last year only because the team's scarcity of capable bullpen options meant he was basically the only thing separating them from a disastrous relief unit. (Could you imagine the first few months last year without him?) Now, with guys like Duffey, May, Romo, Clippard and Littell in place, they aren't quite as dependent on him. That's the thinking, basically.

The next portion of these rankings will introduce some difficult questions. For example, who's more important to the Twins' future: an established All-Star starter under control for one year, or a high-upside pitching prospect who has yet to debut? (Catch up on Part 1 here.)First, to reiterate the parameters and stipulations: Things that are factored into these rankings: production, age, upside, pedigree, health, length of team control, favorability of contract, positional scarcity (within the system, and generally).Players are people. Their value to the organization, and its fans, goes well beyond the strictly business-like scope we're using here. But for the purposes of this list, we're analyzing solely in terms of asset evaluation. Intangible qualities and popularity are not factors. (Sorry Willians.)The idea is to assess their importance to the future of the Minnesota Twins. In this regard, it's not exactly a ranking in terms of trade value, because that's dependent on another team's situation and needs. (For instance, Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade, Jr. would be more valuable to many other teams than they are to the Twins, who are rich with short-term and long-term corner outfield depth.)This is a snapshot in time. Rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and where things stood as of the end of 2019.Current major-leaguers and prospects are all eligible. The ultimate goal here to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?Any questions or quibbles, holler in the comments. Let's continue the countdown. TOP 20 MINNESOTA TWINS ASSETS OF 2020 (11 through 15) 15. Jake Odorizzi, RHP 2019 Ranking: NR Odorizzi is a challenging guy to rank. His situation is similar to that of Nelson Cruz, who I had two spots lower at No. 17. Both players are under contract for only one more year, which limits their asset value. But both are absolutely key to the 2020 outlook, and I would argue Odorizzi even more so given the relative depth of power-hitting, and lack of high-end pitching. And unlike Cruz, who will turn 40 next year with a balky wrist, Odorizzi turns 30 in March with a fully clean bill of health. In 2019, he was an All-Star, ranked eighth among AL starters in fWAR, and held his own in an ALDS matchup against the Yankees. 14. Trevor Larnach, OF 2019 Ranking: NR As a bat-first prospect who can't play a premium position, it's tough to climb up a list like this. Larnach was on the fringe last year as a first-round draft pick who impressed in his debut, but putting up numbers in rookie ball and Low-A is no rare feat for a slugger fresh out of college. In 2019, Larnach raised his distinction considerably. He opened up in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, where his .316 average and .842 OPS in 84 games led all players. Then he moved up to Double-A and hardly missed a beat, finishing with a .295/.387/.455 slash line as a 22-year-old at Pensacola. As a result of the monster campaign, he earned Twins Minor League Player of the Year honors and figures to make big jumps in 2020 preseason top prospect lists. As of right now, he's probably most valuable to Minnesota as trade collateral, but his imminent impact potential can help the team breathe easier about its uncertainty at first base. 13. Jhoan Duran, RHP 2019 Ranking: NR Pitching prospects with high ceilings that are close to the major leagues are valuable to every franchise, and especially to the Twins in this moment. In 2019, Duran reached Double-A as a 21-year-old, becoming one of the youngest pitchers to throw in the league. Despite his youth, he overpowered hitters with a 16% swinging strike rate yielding a 41-to-9 K/BB ratio in 37 innings. This after he put up a 3.23 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in 78 innings at High-A. Entering his age 22 season, Duran has already established himself in the high minors and built a strong workload baseline, with 100 and 115 innings pitched the last two years. His odds of sticking as a starter seem higher than most electric arms at his stage, which gives him a big boost here. As ever, though, the TNSTAAPP caveat applies. 12. Taylor Rogers, LHP 2019 Ranking: 10 With yet another phenomenal season out of the bullpen, Rogers further solidified himself as Minnesota's relief rock. In some ways, he was more essential than ever, serving as the safety valve in an oft-beleaguered unit and recording six-plus outs on nine different occasions. He ranked fifth among MLB relievers in Win Probability Added, fifth in fWAR, and second in K/BB ratio. He doesn't feel quite as indispensable as he did a year ago, only because a few other trustworthy high-leverage options have emerged for the Twins, but no one can match what the lefty brings. He's durable, consistent, and matchup-proof. Best of all, he's still under team control for three more years (though his cost could rise quickly in arbitration if he keeps accumulating saves). 11. Miguel Sano, 3B 2019 Ranking: 14 No player roused more debate and disagreement in the last rankings than Sano. One year ago, he was shrouded in mystery, coming off an ugly season that included a "reset" demotion to Single-A and further issues with a surgically repaired leg. His run of mishaps carried over into the spring of 2019, when a questionably treated heel laceration cost him a quarter of the season, but upon returning Sano made his presence felt and restored his status as a deeply feared hitter. In just 105 games, Sano hit 34 home runs with 79 RBIs. His .579 slugging percentage ranked 11th among big-leaguers with 400+ plate appearances. His average exit velocity and barrels per plate appearance % were both fifth-highest in baseball. In Cleveland, late in the season, Sano delivered the fatal blow in the AL Central race with a devastating grand slam. He narrowly misses the Top 10 because of defensive shortcomings at third, and because durability concerns will persist until they don't (he still hasn't played more than 116 games in an MLB season). The Twins are down to two years of team control remaining. RECAPPING THE RANKINGS SO FAR: 20. Ryan Jeffers, C 19. Eddie Rosario, OF 18. Michael Pineda, RHP 17. Nelson Cruz, DH 16. Tyler Duffey, RHP 15. Jake Odorizzi, RHP 14. Trevor Larnach, OF 13. Jhoan Duran, RHP 12. Taylor Rogers, LHP 11. Miguel Sano, 3B Check back in tomorrow for Part 3. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article