Nick Nelson

Twins Daily's Top 20 Twins Prospects of 2020 20. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B: Strong infield D and contact swing keep him on Top 20 radar. 19. Cole Sands, RHP: Tremendous pro debut in 2019 with 5-to-1 K/BB ratio in A-ball. 18. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF: The innate power is finally starting to show up in games. 17. Misael Urbina, OF: Standout athlete flashing every tool as an unrefined teenager. 16. Edwar Colina, RHP: Big arm, wicked slider. If he keeps sharpening control, watch out. 15. Matt Canterino, RHP: Freshly drafted righty shows big potential with funky delivery. 14. Matt Wallner, OF: Former MN prep star fared well during first exposure to pro ranks. 13. Wander Javier, SS: Disastrous 2019 season doesn't fully diminish shortstop's shine. 12. Gilberto Celestino, OF: Skills came together during spectacular second half in A-ball. 11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Keeps missing bats at the highest levels. His upside endures. 10. Blayne Enlow, RHP: Progression has been gradual, but steady. Could turn a corner. 9. Brent Rooker, OF: Immense power just might offset K's and lack of defensive value. 8. Keoni Cavaco, SS: All projection at this point, but toolsy teen offers plenty to dream on. 7. Ryan Jeffers, C: Two-way standout at catcher has impressed at every stop through AA. 6. Jhoan Duran, RHP: Hard-throwing whiff machine could impact 2020 Twins as a reliever. 5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Sturdily built sterling performer has makings of a long-term SP. 4: Brusdar Graterol, RHP: The now-departed young flamethrower was an ultra-rare talent. 3. Trevor Larnach, OF: Hits for average and power, shaping up as prototypical star RF. 2. Alex Kirilloff, OF: Remains one of the best pure hitters in the minors. Handled AA at 21. 1. Royce Lewis, SS: Pure ability too blinding to look past, but there is work to be done. POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN C: 1 IF: 5 OF: 6 RHP: 7 LHP: 1 Two obvious areas of deficiency in the breakdown above: catcher and left-handed pitching. That's not by coincidence – they are notoriously tough spots to amass impact talent – but I don't see these scarcities as particularly alarming for the Twins. Pitching is pitching. Yeah, it might be nice to have a few more southpaws in the mix, but a righty-heavy staff isn't such a detriment right now for the Twins, and the MLB-ready Thorpe looms large as a lefty threat. As for the catcher position, Ben Rortvedt is right on the fringe of this list in our honorable mentions, and in the Graterol trade, the Twins acquired a 20-year-old catcher named Jair Camargo who is at least kind of intriguing. https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/1227029116152668167 Oh, yeah... Graterol. THE LOSS OF GRATEROL After tabulating votes two weeks ago, we had our Top 20 list fully compiled and finalized. Rollout on the site was already underway when news of the Kenta Maeda trade surfaced. At that point, our options were to reset on the fly, or just run the rankings as planned. We chose the latter, because it seemed valuable to provide context as to what the Twins gave up for Maeda. Graterol was, from our panel's view, the organization's No. 1 pitching prospect before departing. But those rankings didn't necessarily reflect a future in the bullpen, which now seems firmer than ever. And even with all the noise filtered out, Graterol wasn't separated from Balazovic or Duran by much. The Twins have developed three upper-echelon – albeit not quite elite – pitching prospects, giving them the luxury to part with an undeniably stellar talent like Graterol. And, if you're wondering which player now slides into our Top 20, with everyone else bumping up a spot in his absence? It's Rortvedt, who was just mentioned. FEELING THE DRAFT Graterol wasn't the only valuable asset Minnesota lost in the Maeda trade. The Twins also forfeited their Comp B pick in the coming MLB Draft (67th overall), and based on how they've drafted as of late, this could deprive them of a pretty special player. Scouting director Sean Johnson is running a ridiculously effective unit for Minnesota. The top three players on our prospect list (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach) are first-round picks from successive years (2016-2018). All are consensus Top 100 guys. That says a lot. The Twins have also shown some ability to unearth gems beyond the first wave, like prospect No. 10 Enlow (76th overall), No. 9 Rooker (39th), and No. 7 Jeffers (59th). Add in the fact that signing Josh Donaldson cost the Twins their third-round pick (99th overall), and the toll taken on this year's draft class by these win-now moves is considerable. You won't find me complaining, but it's something to keep in mind. WATCH THE THRONE The top two spots on our list remain unchanged from last year, but Lewis and Kirilloff have definitely loosened their grips – especially Lewis at No. 1. His youth, athleticism, pedigree, and makeup were enough to keep the shortstop locked in as the leader and our list, and he's still in a healthy position on most national rankings. But between the scant production last year – .236/.290/.371 with poor plate discipline – and the echoing questions concerning defense and swing mechanics, there's vulnerability here. Any number of players from the list could plausibly take over that top billing a year from now. Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, and Jeffers feel most viable to me, if Lewis were to slip. Of course, there's also a plenty good chance Lewis rebounds in a huge way to re-stake his claim among the game's elite young talents. WHERE THEY STAND Baseball America released its ranking of MLB farm systems last week and had the Twins eighth. Bleacher Report has them sixth. By just about any measure, Minnesota boasts a top-10 system in the game, with a majority of its best talents rapidly approaching MLB-readiness. With the Twins bursting through their contention window, the timing could not be better. Strap in folks. Fun times are ahead. On a final note, I'd like to say that while I was researching and compiling entries for this series, two of my most invaluable resources were Tom Froemming's YouTube channel and Twitter page. If you enjoy Twins minor-league coverage and aren't following both, I highly recommend doing so. Tom puts together so much awesome video content and analysis. PAST TWINS DAILY TOP PROSPECT LISTS: TD 2019 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2018 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2017 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2016 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects TD 2015 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

1: Tyler Clippard won a World Series in 2017 ... but didn't pitch in the playoffs. Marwin Gonzalez has received a lot of attention for playing a role in the Astros' tainted 2017 championship. That make sense; the numbers make it quite clear he was a prime beneficiary of the cheating. One player who's receiving less attention is Clippard. That also makes sense; he was a pitcher and he wasn't even on the postseason roster. But the veteran reliever was on the 40-man roster, and with the team during their run, so he got a ring. It's unfortunate that Clippard's time with Houston coincided with one of the worst stretches of performance in his career. The Astros had acquired him from the White Sox in mid-August, hoping he could assist in their World Series pursuit, but the right-hander failed to earn confidence, posting a 6.43 ERA in 14 innings. So, he wasn't a contributor in October. But he was out there on the field celebrating as the Astros reveled in their title*. https://twitter.com/dcsportsbog/status/925937167834271744 Unlike Rich Hill, who is singularly focused on winning a World Series after coming just short against those Astros in 2017, Clippard does have the coveted accomplishment checked off. But something tells me he'd like to do it again and play an actual role this time around. (Oh, and like Hill – plus almost every other free agent the Twins signed – Clippard does have postseason experience: a 4.26 ERA in 12 2/3 innings with the Nationals and Mets.) 2: Kenta Maeda's medicals raised red flags when he first came over from Japan. When looking back at the initial coverage of Maeda's signing with the Dodgers back in 2016, I found this tidbit rather ironic. Much has been made of the new starter's highly appealing contract, which includes low guarantees and heavy incentives. But the reasons behind this unusual deal architecture are interesting in light of all the drama that unfolded with the recent trade. Physical exams at the time of Maeda's signing revealed irregularities in right elbow, leading to a "strong suspicion ...he will need Tommy John reconstruction at some point." "It's factored into the length and structure of the contract," which maxed out at more than $100 million but guaranteed less than a quarter of that, according to Dodgers head exec Andrew Friedman at the time. Maeda was 27 then. Four years later, he's thrown 589 innings over 137 appearances for Los Angeles and had not one issue with his pitching elbow. All three of his stints on the injured list in LA were due to lower-body injuries. It's just another data point to illustrate that the human body is unpredictable, and medical prognosticating is an incredibly inexact science. So whatever concerns arose in Boston's eyes when they looked at Brusdar Graterol's medicals, causing them to sour on him and back out of the original trade, were flimsy at best. 3: Jhoulys Chacin has a better career ERA+ than Jose Berrios or Jake Odorizzi. His 108 ERA+ mark in the contextualized metric (100 is average) over 1,300 career innings edges that of either incumbent All-Star. Berrios (105) and Odorizzi (106) have been solid in aggregate, as has Michael Pineda (103), but Chacin's body of work surpasses them all. ERA+ shines a positive light on the former Rockie because it accounts for his six years spent in the league's toughest pitching environment. Chacin's 3.78 ERA in Colorado was even more impressive than it looked. Per ERA+, he's been above-average in six of his nine seasons with 50+ IP, including two of the past three. He has also been very durable of late, logging 100+ innings and 22+ starts in four straight campaigns. Because he's coming off a rough year, Chacin is being slept on as one of the most underrated additions in the Twins offseason. Tabbing him for the fifth rotation spot with a non-guaranteed deal is a completely risk-free proposition with very real upside. 4: Josh Donaldson was a childhood friend of former Twin P.J. Walters. I came across this factoid in a profile on Donaldson from 2013. In his junior year of high school, the Florida native transferred to Faith Academy in Mobile, AL, partially because Walters – "one of Josh's best friends," per MLB.com's Jane Lee – had enrolled there a year earlier. At the time that article published, Walters was pitching in the Twins organization. The right-hander threw 152 total innings in the majors, and 101 of them came with Minnesota, where he made 20 starts in 2012 and '13. It was a real low point in the franchise's recent history, as Walters epitomized the perpetual struggle of Terry Ryan's front office: throwing fringe arms at the wall in desperate hopes of adhesion. Walters was one of many misfires, posting a 5.79 ERA and 1.60 WHIP for the Twins, and never again appearing in the majors afterward. Donaldson, meanwhile, represents just how much things have changed for the Twins since those dark days. He's the marquee addition to a 101-win division champ, assembled by an overhauled front office that has elevated the club's operational sophistication drastically. 5: Alex Avila developed a rep as "The Titanium Catcher" ... and as a lightning rod for foul tips. In January of 2014, months after the Twins announced Joe Mauer would be moving away from catcher, an article on Fox Sports Detroit boasted of this nickname for Avila, who missed two weeks the prior season due to headaches and nausea resulting from a foul tip (incidentally, sustained just 11 days before the one that ended Mauer's catching career). "One thing Avila did do after he returned from the disabled list," according to the writeup, "was start wearing a heavier mask to absorb more of the impact from the foul tips he seems to get so frequently." His ability to bounce back from the bell-ringers earned Avila a rep for imperviousness, and he has gone on to start 387 games at catcher in the six years since. But as Twins fans know all too well, just one foul tip can change everything, especially when there is a history at play. Mauer moved to first base permanently in 2014, and later retired at age 35 following another flare-up of symptoms. Mitch Garver suffered a concussion on a foul-tip in September of 2018, and didn't catch again for the final three weeks of the season, casting some doubt on his own future behind the plate. Thankfully, he avoided any further issues or complications in a breakout 2019. The Twins will hope that Avila can continue to be titanium-grade this year, so he can help lighten Garver's load and continue the productivity of Minnesota's catching unit. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Position: RF Age: 22 (DOB: 2/26/1997) 2019 Stats (A+/AA): 542 PA, .309/.384/.458, 13 HR, 66 RBI ETA: 2021 2019 Ranking: 4 National Top 100 Rankings BA: 45 | MLB: 81 | ATH: 82 | BP: 85 What's To Like Larnach was one of the hottest collegiate players in the country when Minnesota drafted him, wrapping up a monster season at Oregon State with a beastly performance in the College World Series. After slashing .303/.421/.429 with three home runs in 60 games as a sophomore for the Beavers, the outfielder's power fully blossomed as a junior: 68 games, .348/.463/.652, 19 HR. That helium factor contributed to Minnesota overlooking its stockpile of bat-first corner guys in the system, snagging Larnach with their first 2018 pick at No. 20 overall. Good call. Larnach is a refreshingly complete hitter. Many power bats come out of the college ranks with huge holes in their swings and gaudy strikeout totals (see: Rooker) but Larnach achieves excellent strike zone coverage and can drive the ball to all fields. He has struck out in only 21% of his pro plate appearances while batting ~.300 or better at every stop dating back to his sophomore year at Oregon State. Among qualified hitters in the Florida State League, where Larnach spent much of 2019 before a mid-July promotion to Double-A, his .316 average ranked No. 1 (the second-best mark was .298, which tells you something about the challenging FSL hitting environment), as did his OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and any other hitting metric you might invoke. He was simply transcendent. He didn't slow down much after heading to Pensacola. In the Southern League, Larnach posted an identical .842 OPS overall, gradually finding his groove after a slow start and slashing .324/.417/.479 in his final 20 games. For the season, Larnach led all Twins minor leaguers in hits, appropriately earning himself Minor League Hitter of the Year honors from both Twins Daily and the Twins themselves. At 6-foot-4 and 220 lbs, the strong-armed lefty swinger has all the attributes of a prototypical brawny right field staple. What's Left To Work On A major power surge in his junior year is what solidified Larnach's status as a first-round pick, but that pronounced pop hasn't yet carried over to the pros. Don't get me wrong, a .468 slugging percentage through 169 minor-league games is nothing to scoff at, but a .149 ISO and 18 total home runs are lower than you'd expect from a guy with his size, scouting grades, and overall production. His trouble? Turning on the ball. Last June, even as he tore up the FSL, Larnach told the Star Tribune's LaVelle E. Neal III: "Since the offseason I’ve been doing everything I can to get this inside pitch down, and I’m getting better at it." But he added, “I’m not where I want to be." A look at his XBH spray chart below (courtesy MiLB.com) reflects a hitter who is extremely adept at launching to the opposite field and to straightaway center, but is less forceful on the pull side. Indeed, MiLB.com's Sam Dykstra notes that Larnach's 41.2% pull rate in 2019 was fifth-lowest among qualified Minnesota minor leaguers. To be clear, this offensive profile is not a negative. Some of the greatest batsmen in the game are defined by their ability to hit a pitch where it's thrown. But as any Joe Mauer cynic will tell you, power output can suffer when one isn't able to aggressively punish those mistakes on the inner half. Larnach's overall mastery at the plate overshadowed any shortcomings in the XBH column, but when it comes to bat-handling and discipline, Joe Mauer he is not. He's also a pure corner guy in the field, so the same thing I wrote about our No. 9 prospect Rooker applies here: lower defensive value necessitates higher offensive value. If Larnach is to pan out as the upper-tier MLB outfielder we hope, standout power will be a necessary ingredient in the equation. He fared well in his first turn at Double-A, but from here on out, pitchers will only become more and more prone to attack his weaknesses. Can Larnach get where he wants to be with that down-and-in pitch? What's Next? This spring, Larnach is officially in Twins camp as a non-roster invite. A year ago, he was called over from the minor-league side for a Grapefruit League game at Hammond Stadium, and I'm pleased to say I was sitting right next to Seth Stohs in the press box when he caught this moment on film: https://twitter.com/SethTweets/status/1106278951784235008 It's fair to presume Larnach will make a fine impression in his more extended action this spring. But regardless, he is billed to open in the minors – probably back at Pensacola. With a strong start, he can earn a promotion to Rochester where he'd be reunited with his Cedar Rapids manager Toby Gardenhire. Then, it becomes a matter of a spot opening up for him at the big-league level. Nothing awaits in the immediate offing, but Larnach may well prove to be the type of player worth making room for, even if they don't have a "need" for him. Twins Daily 2020 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda, 3B/2B 19. Cole Sands, RHP 18. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF 17. Misael Urbina, OF 16. Edwar Colina, RP 15. Matt Canterino, RHP 14. Matt Wallner, OF 13. Wander Javier, SS 12. Gilberto Celestino, OF 11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 10. Blayne Enlow, RHP 9. Brent Rooker, OF 8. Keoni Cavaco, SS 7. Ryan Jeffers, C 6. Jhoan Duran, RHP 5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 4. Brusdar Graterol, RHP 3. Trevor Larnach, OF Check back tomorrow for #2! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

One month ago, when we last checked in, the winter was dragging in a ho-hum direction. A recent Miguel Sano contract extension and some roster additions around the fringes were encouraging enough developments, but the big splash wasn't materializing. No marquee addition. No deviation from the narrative that long-term flexibility and internal pipeline matter above all else. Since then, the Twins have signed Josh Donaldson to a record-breaking contract and traded the organization's top pitching prospect for a veteran impact starter in Kenta Maeda. In doing so, the front office emphatically addressed multiple remaining areas of uncertainty, albeit at the cost of Brusdar Graterol, two top-100 picks in the coming draft, and around $100 million. Here's the roster and payroll projection with new details added: Donaldson's $21M salary, Maeda's $3.125 M (packaged with the rehabbing Hill, for the purposes of this table), and Jose Berrios's now-finalized figure after losing his arbitration case. A HEIGHTENED PAYROLL CEILING The $138 million payroll projected above is already easily a new franchise record for the Twins. But the final tab for ownership could end up being significantly higher. Maeda has many incentives and escalators built into his base salary (via Spotrac): Innings Pitched Bonus: $250,000 each for 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200 Games Started Bonus: $1M each for 15, 20l; $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32 Hill, meanwhile, has plenty of kickers on top of his $3 million guarantee (also via Spotrac): $1 million for 5 games started or 25 innings $1M for 7 starts/35 innings $1M for 9 starts/45 innings $1.5M for 11 starts/55 innings $2M for 13 starts/65 innings $3M for 15 starts/75 innings Toss in reachable incentives for other players (including Donaldson), as well as the $1.6 million guarantee that NRI Jhoulys Chacin will trigger if (when?) he makes the team, and payroll could very well soar beyond $150 million. Last year, that would've ranked 11th in baseball. Even accounting for the $10 million they got back in the Maeda trade, the Twins are stepping up financially. It's officially time to kill the "Cheap Pohlads" narrative. BERRIOS TAKES A RARE 'L' As mentioned earlier, Berrios lost his arbitration case, so he'll make $4.025 million this year rather than the $4.4 million he sought. These hearings have been known to cause friction between players and teams in the past, but by all accounts Berrios was pushing for a higher number more out of precedent, as opposed to feeling offended by Minnesota's offer (which, according to an objective ruling, was fair). The possibility of an extension before Opening Day remains on the table, and I'm not sure this turn of events really affects that much one way or another. RELOADING THE SYSTEM There haven't been any further changes to the MLB coaching staff, which was rounded out by the addition of bench coach Mike Bell, but here again is the final group: Manager: Rocco Baldelli Hitting Coach: Edgar Varela Hitting Coach: Rudy Hernandez Pitching Coach: Wes Johnson Bullpen Coach: Bob McClure Bench Coach: Mike Bell MLB Coach: Bill Evers The front office underwent some reconfiguration over the winter as well. Daniel Adler and Jeremy Zoll were both promoted to Assistant GM roles, Alex Hassan was named Director of Player Development (you can get to know him in Seth's profile), and Jeremy Raadt became Director of Baseball Systems. Several new minor-league instructors entered the fold – many plucked from forward-thinking college programs, much like Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson was a year ago. The value of having a two-headed monster in Derek Falvey and Thad Levine came into full focus over the winter, as the club filled numerous important roles throughout the baseball ops department while also executing the most ambitious and active offseason roster supplementation in franchise history. The infrastructure they continue to build together is nothing short of amazing. So it's a very good thing that both Falvey and Levine were extended through 2024 in November. GRADING THE OFFSEASON Honestly, how can you not mark them in the 'A' range? I might go with an A- because neither Donaldson nor Maeda is quite a slam-dunk fit, but in tandem the duo is arguably superior to signing Zack Wheeler, who offered the most plausible big-splash scenario for this team coming into the winter. By re-signing Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, the Twins retained two key pieces of a 101-win division champ, and by adding Donaldson and Maeda they built significantly upon that base. Meanwhile, the front office also made some nice additions at the fringes: Homer Bailey, Rich Hill and Jhoulys Chacin bring varying levels of low-stakes veteran intrigue to the rotation; Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard do the same in a well-stocked bullpen. This was a balanced, measured, aggressive offseason in which the Twins rolled with the punches, pivoted when Plan A failed, and hung tough in negotiations to get the deals they wanted. The team sent a message to the fanbase, and the league, by rocketing to new payroll heights and trading their top pitching prospect. Meanwhile, the Twins filled numerous openings throughout the coaching and baseball ops ranks, and established some long-term continuity both at the executive (Falvey and Levine) and player levels. Sano joins Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco with extensions; add in the four-year contracts for Donaldson and Maeda, and in the space of 12 months, the Twins have gone from zero multi-year commitments to having five players locked in through at least 2022. The Twins followed one of the most successful seasons ever with one of their most successful offseasons ever. What's next? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Position: RHP Age: 21 (DOB: 9/17/1998) 2019 Stats (A/A+): 93.2 IP, 2.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 12.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 ETA: 2022 2019 Ranking: NA National Top 100 Rankings BA: 95 | MLB: 86 | ATH: 61 | BP: NA What's To Like The numbers speak for themselves. You can see above, his sterling results from 2019, adding to a pro career in which Balazovic has compiled a 3.32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 rate with 16 homers allowed in 227.2 IP. Those are immaculate numbers for a guy who turned 21 last September and has always been young for his level. He dominates in the most straightforward and reliable of fashions: attacking the zone and making hitters miss. Among players to throw 20+ innings in the Midwest League, Balazovic's 39.8% K-rate in four starts there ranked third (the two higher numbers were from players three and four years older). After a very quick promotion to the Florida State League, Balazovic's K-rate dropped a bit to 32.8%, but that was good for third among pitchers with 50+ IP. He achieves this level of domination in the most straightforward and reliable of fashions: commanding a mid-90s fastball and mixing it expertly with the offspeeds. Balazovic is a technician, riding a consistent delivery and deep release point to keep opponents from finding any kind of rhythm. His slider and developing changeup aren't viewed as especially great pitches on their own, but the 6-foot-5 righty plays them up significantly with his power fastball and tunneling technique. In , Twins Daily's Tom Froemming shares highlights from one of Balazovic's better 2019 performances – a four-frame outing fresh off his appearance in the Futures Game – and Tom breaks down his deceptive pitch sequences in action. While this outing came in relief, due to a disruption in his normal schedule, all but three of the former fifth-rounder's 31 appearances since reaching full-season ball have been starts. And this is a key factor that differentiates Balazovic from other big arms like Jhoan Duran at the top end our prospect list: he seems more likely than any other to remain a starting pitcher long-term. It's apparent enough from his build: a big and sturdy guy with broad shoulders and smooth mechanics. His changeup is coming along well enough to project as a viable MLB offering. For these reasons and more, Patrick Reusse recently wrote in a Star Tribune profile that Balazovic "has starter written all over him." Starter with colossal upside. A crucial asset indeed. What's Left To Work On A huge year lies ahead for Balazovic. While all signs have mostly been good since he joined the organization as a 17-year-old out of high school in 2016, he's got a couple big hurdles left to clear. First, there's the high minors. According to Reusse's column, the Twins are gearing up to start Balazovic at Class-AA Pensacola this season, and he'll find the competition there much stiffer after mowing down Single-A batters last summer. Sharpening his breaking-ball command and refining the changeup will be essential to maintaining his results in the upper tiers. Secondly, there's proving his durability. While he possesses the aforementioned qualities of a starting pitcher, Balazovic needs to make good on the field. He missed time in 2018 due to nerve irritation in his elbow, limiting him to 62 innings at Cedar Rapids, and in 2019 he totaled just 94 innings as his workload was stringently managed. (After May 25th, Balazovic had only one start where he pitched into the sixth or threw even 90 pitches.) For comparison, Berrios threw 103 and 140 innings in his first two full pro seasons, at the same ages. It's smart to be cautious with such a critical young arm, but at some point – probably this year – the Twins are going to need to loosen the reins and stretch Balavovic out, with deeper outings and a program that puts him on track for 150 innings at least. What's Next If Reusse's projection is accurate, Balazovic will open in Double-A at age 21, which is a fairly aggressive but well-warranted assignment. Last year only four pitchers 21 or younger logged 100+ innings in the Southern League, which is the realistic aspiration for Balazovic. His workload baseline doesn't really set up for him to be pitching past August, so the idea of Balazovic impacting the big-league club down the stretch may not be feasible, barring a scenario like Graterol's last year where early missed time leaves Balazovic with innings left to throw toward the end. Of course, that'd hardly be ideal, in the sense that his durability remains an open question. The best-case scenario for Balazovic this year would seem to be a fully healthy, productive, and convincing summer in the Pensacola rotation, perhaps punctuated by a late promotion to Triple-A cementing his readiness to contend for an MLB job in 2021. Twins Daily 2020 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda, 3B/2B 19. Cole Sands, RHP 18. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF 17. Misael Urbina, OF 16. Edwar Colina, RP 15. Matt Canterino, RHP 14. Matt Wallner, OF 13. Wander Javier, SS 12. Gilberto Celestino, OF 11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 10. Blayne Enlow, RHP 9. Brent Rooker, OF 8. Keoni Cavaco, SS 7. Ryan Jeffers, C 6. Jhoan Duran, RHP 5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP Check back tomorrow for #4! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Position: C Age: 22 (DOB: 6/3/1997) 2019 Stats (A+/AA): 414 PA, .264/.341/.421, 14 HR, 49 RBI ETA: 2021 2019 Ranking: 13 National Top 100 Rankings BA: NA | MLB: NA | ATH: NA | BP: NA What's To Like The bat. It was considered his primary strength coming out of college in 2018, when the Twins selected him in the second round. The North Carolina native put up spectacular offensive numbers in three years at UNC Wilmington, culminating with .315/.460/.635, 16 homers, and 51 walks in 62 games his junior year. With numbers like that, as a catcher, you might ask why Jeffers fell to 59th overall and signed below slot, after ranking even farther back on most pre-draft projections. In short, there were some serious doubts about his slugging prowess translating away from aluminum bats, and his defense remaining viable behind home plate. The Twins evidently were none too bothered by such concerns, and their faith has since been rewarded. Two months after the draft, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press wrote that Jeffers was laying quick claim to Twins 'catcher of the future.' "Yeah, I was swinging a different bat, but baseball is baseball," Jeffers said at the time, fresh off an aggressive promotion to Cedar Rapids after dominating Elizabethton. "I didn’t change too much.” Nor did the numbers. He finished with a .344/.444/.502 slash line between two levels, and found himself at Fort Myers to open the 2019 campaign. In the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, he wasn't quite as potent (.732 OPS and 10 homers in 79 games) but still impressed enough to earn a late-July promotion to Double-A, where he enjoyed an unforgettable first day and finished with an .856 OPS in 27 games. https://twitter.com/BlueWahoosBBall/status/1154599156989792256 It's the defense, though, that has really begun to separate Jeffers. After the 2018 season, Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote about Minnesota's efforts to refine his receiving chops, and how aptly the malleable student was taking to it. One year later, Hayes wrote in our Offseason Handbook that Jeffers' pitch-framing skills were deemed by some folks within the organization to be "among the top 15 in pro ball right now." https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1060226568885321728 MLB Pipeline recently named him the best defensive prospect in the Twins system, noting that Jeffers has shed his offense-first rep and "improved by leaps and bounds, with an above-average arm to go along with outstanding receiving and blocking skills." What's Left to Work On He's just got to keep proving it. Jeffers hasn't yet gained steam on national lists because, while his performance has been impeccable, it's not out of the ordinary for a premier college talent storming the lower levels of the minors. Catcher, in particular, is a position where the difficulty level rises sharply with each rung of the ladder. Jeffers is clearly coming along nicely but he'll really be tested once he reaches Triple-A and especially the majors. One area for improvement is controlling the run game; at Rochester last year, opponents stole 63 bases in his 74 starts at a 74% success rate. At 6-foot-4 and 230 lbs., Jeffers is a bit of a lumbering fellow who doesn't spring quickly from the crouch, and also doesn't move too well, which greatly limits his defensive options in the event catching doesn't work out. Luckily, there's no reason to believe that'll be the case. What's Next Jeffers is among the Twins' non-roster spring training invites, reporting with the rest of the pitchers and catchers this week. The team has (intentionally, I suspect) preserved flexibility at catcher by signing Alex Avila to a one-year deal, so the door is open for Jeffers to join Mitch Garver in the majors after 2020 if can make his case. Speaking of the current Twins starting backstop, it was noted in the aforementioned Berardino profile that Jeffers was drawing "a lot of internal comparisons" to Garver, who at the time was just finding his way as a solid yet unspectacular rookie in the majors. “I’ve heard that and I take it as a compliment,” Jeffers said then. “I’m trying to get to where Mitch has gotten.” He's about to have his chance. Twins Daily 2020 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda, 3B/2B 19. Cole Sands, RHP 18. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF 17. Misael Urbina, OF 16. Edwar Colina, RP 15. Matt Canterino, RHP 14. Matt Wallner, OF 13. Wander Javier, SS 12. Gilberto Celestino, OF 11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 10. Blayne Enlow, RHP 9. Brent Rooker, OF 8. Keoni Cavaco, SS 7. Ryan Jeffers, C Check back tomorrow for #6! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Graterol was freshly of legal drinking age when he joined the Twins last season, so it's only fitting he brought the Fireballs. His average fastball velocity of 99.0 MPH registered as fifth-highest for anyone who threw in the majors. Watching Graterol establish himself at the highest level, flashing boyish enthusiasm while pumping heaters past big-league stars, was a pure delight. https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1226646422264655873 Naturally, I was very eager to see Graterol work his rare magic once again this year, potentially over an entire season (and deeper playoff run). That's why I supported the decision to keep him in the bullpen – it was a win-now move, which this franchise has historically shied away from. Ironically, Graterol has now been dealt in an even bolder win-now move. With Maeda, the Twins get an established quantity, whose impact on the 2020 team far exceeds what could've realistically been expected from Graterol as a 60-inning reliever. But in making this swap, the Twins are losing a very unique player and special person whose story is yet to be written. So while I'm excited about Maeda, I do find myself rueing Graterol's loss as the reality of his exit hits. THE GOLDEN ARM Los Angeles seems a great fit for Graterol. The Dodgers are a storied franchise, and among the top two or three 2020 World Series favorites – especially with Mookie Betts in the fold. But their bullpen could use a boost. Formerly elite closer Kenley Jansen has seen a bit of a slide in recent years and is 32. Hard-throwing hothead Joe Kelly, signed to a big deal last offseason, was a disappointment in Year 1. Graterol joins Julio Urias as premium young arms infusing this staff with exhilarating upside. Jansen is under contract through 2021, so the Dodgers closer gig figures to be up for grabs then if not sooner. That's a prestigious (and, as Jansen has shown, lucrative) title. It's also possible the Dodgers could try moving Graterol back into a starting role. But that's not happening this year, and now seems unlikely in general. VALIDITY OF INJURY CONCERNS? Under the original agreement, Graterol would've been heading to Boston, which itself wasn't a bad fit. As to why the Red Sox soured on the deal and reneged at the last moment, we don't know, and may never know. Some have insinuated it was fueled partially by negative public backlash, but the official account holds that a final review of the pitcher's medicals convinced Boston he's destined to stay in the bullpen, thus altering their asset valuation. It's really unfortunate that Graterol's health – perfectly fine from all outward signs – came under scrutiny in this process. He battled hard to come back from shoulder soreness last summer, delivering in a huge way into October and finishing on a high note. So, to now have his outlook downplayed by subjective evaluations from Boston's staff has gotta be frustrating. Then again, from the moment it came to light that Minnesota was willing to trade the top pitching prospect in any kind of deal, implications regarding their own assessments of Graterol were plain to see. https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1224916635921846272 The Red Sox apparently reached a similar conclusion upon closer review of his medicals. They are entitled to their opinion, and while it really sucks this all got aired publicly, I'm not sure Boston's new GM Chaim Bloom is deserving of animosity. With an edict from on high to trade Betts, he's trying to make the best of an ugly situation. The idea that this was a PR-driven course correction doesn't hold water to me. By opting out on Graterol, the Red Sox instead ended up subbing in shortstop Jeter Downs as the second talent received behind centerpiece Alex Verdugo. Downs is, according to most lists, a moderately better prospect than Graterol, but ... enough to meaningfully move the needle on fan sentiment? He's barely played above Single-A. There's no such thing as a satisfactory return when trading a Mookie Betts, but Graterol is hardly unexciting. Red Sox fans just watched him blow away Yankees hitters in the playoffs at age 21 a few months ago. They weren't being asked to dream on some fanciful long-term project. So, Boston got spooked on Graterol's medicals. Okay. And while the Dodgers were clearly less spooked, they weren't willing to make the same one-on-one swap that was originally planned. Los Angeles added in $10 million (meaningless to them) and a low-level prospect to extract more value from Minnesota, in the form of outfield prospect Luke Raley and (more critically) the 67th pick in this year's draft. Based on what we can ascertain from the outside, Graterol alone would've been a fair return for Maeda, if not a bit of a heavy give by Minnesota. The Red Sox initially reached that conclusion. After seeing more files and records, their valuation changed, and LA also needed a bit extra to make it happen. I think we can conclude, based on all of this, that there is a more valid basis for concern about Graterol's arm holding up than before this whole fiasco started. But you know what? The human body is an unpredictable construct. David Price, also heading to the Dodgers as part of a (now separate) trade with Boston, seems a relevant example to cite; he's been skirting Tommy John surgery for his entire career thanks to his "very unique" elbow. Sometimes red flags just flap in the wind endlessly. There's a perfectly good chance Graterol goes on to enjoy a healthy career with no abnormal incidence of arm issues. But one thing does crystal-clear: he won't be doing it as a starter. WHAT NOW FOR THE TWINS BULLPEN? Graterol was a dynamic weapon and his absence is a negative for the bullpen picture. Duh. Then again, we hadn't been definitively planning around him as a reliever up until a couple weeks ago, and the Twins looked plenty strong on that front beforehand. Even without Graterol, Minnesota still has proven late-inning firepower in Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May. There's steady veteran support from Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard. A promising project in Matt Wisler. Ready young contributors in Zack Littell and Cody Stashak. This unit is not hurting for options, who have earned their chances. And in Fernando Romero, the Twins still have a forgotten flamethrower on hand whose raw stuff is nearly as formidable as Graterol's. That Minnesota possessed the depth to part with a talent of Graterol's caliber speaks to the job this front office has done building a robust bullpen and pitching pipeline. (Don't be shocked if hard-throwing righty Jhoan Duran becomes this year's version of the 2019 Brusdar.) None of this changes the fact that losing Graterol hurts, and the pain will likely resonate over the years as the phenom gets chances to shine on the biggest stage – probably while exhibiting the same boyish grin we came to love during our short time with him. But those are the sacrifices the Twins needed to make in the same pursuit. There's a decent chance, I think, that the 2020 journeys of Graterol and the Twins will ultimately converge at the same place: a World Series in late October. Both teams involved in this trade are counting on it.

To bring everyone up to speed: The Twins emerged last Wednesday as the third team in a massive trade between the Red Sox and Dodgers, which would've sent Mookie Betts and David Price to LA in exchange for prospect Alex Verdugo and Graterol, whom the Dodgers were to acquire from Minnesota in exchange for Maeda. The following night, it was reported that Boston was backing off amidst concerns in Graterol's medical files (and/or cold feet from ownership in the face of public backlash, depending on which accounts you want to believe). By Saturday, the Twins were said to be ready to drop the whole thing and move on. But it bears noting they took a similar hardline stance with Josh Donaldson, as the team signaled it was ready to bow out before ultimately getting its desired deal. With the way both these situations have played out, there's no knocking the front office's steadfast resolve. In this case, the Twins and Dodgers simply shut out the wayward Red Sox and made a deal on their own, with Graterol, Raley, and a fairly valuable draft pick going to Los Angeles in exchange for Maeda, an as-yet unnamed prospect, and $10 million to cover a portion of his already affordable contract. Minnesota gave a little more and got a little more. At the end of the day, it's still from my view a very good move for all the reasons I laid out here. https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1226638132218679296 https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1226644982225870857 https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1226643432820682759 The Red Sox made a separate deal with the Dodgers, sending Mookie Betts and David Price, along some money, to LA in exchange for prospects OF Alex Verdugo and SS Jeter Downs. We'll update this article with more information as it becomes available, but for now, how are you feeling about the deal – finally – getting done? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email