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  1. When I use the word "intriguing," I mean it in a specific way. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are of course far more appealing, because both are at the peak of their powers and coming off excellent seasons. The same is more or less true of the next starter tier – Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, etc. That's why they're all going to get paid handsomely. As he enters free agency for the first time, Wood does not find himself in such a favorable position. Here are some things to know about the southpaw and his crooked path to the present: A second-round pick out of college by Atlanta in 2012, Wood immediately thrived in the minors and reached the big leagues less than one year after being drafted. At age 22 he posted a 3.13 ERA and 77-to-27 K/BB ratio, allowing only three homers in 78 innings for the Braves. He followed up with a 2.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 172 innings as a sophomore. In July of 2015, he was shipped to the Dodgers as part of a massive three-team, 13-player deal dubbed by Minor League Ball as "one of the crazier trades in baseball history." Atlanta's motivation in the deal was to get Cuban star Hector Olivera, but he quickly proved to be a total bust. As Atlanta looked on regretfully, Wood continued to excel in SoCal. Over the next three seasons he posted a 3.29 ERA, 3.38 FIP and 1.15 WHIP over 364 1/3 innings in 74 appearances (62 starts). During that span he averaged 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 while allowing just 34 homers total. In his career year of 2017, he won 16 games, made the All-Star team, and finished ninth in Cy Young voting. Wood's greatest challenge in LA (other than some occasional injuries) was consistently staying in the rotation fold, pressed by the Dodgers' enviable depth of established high-quality starters. This ultimately prompted Los Angeles to deal him to Cincinnati last winter, one year ahead of his free agency. The trade, mostly designed to shift salaries around as the Dodgers sought to get under the luxury tax threshold, also sent Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp the Reds. Wood's lone year in Cincy was simply a loss. Plagued by back issues, he was limited to seven starts and 35 innings, in which he posted a 5.80 ERA and 1.40 WHIP – both the worst marks of his career. He didn't pitch until the end of July and was shut down again a month later. Clearly, Wood is a medical enigma, and assessments made on that front will ultimately dictate whether he is a target worthy of pursuing. But assuming there is reasonable confidence in a few months of rest getting his back right, Wood looks like a major value buy, and he should attract his own competitive market for that reason. His circumstances remind me of Phil Hughes back in the 2013-14 offseason. Like Wood, Hughes hit free agency at a relatively young age, by virtue of debuting in the majors early (Hughes was a free agent at 27, Wood is 28). Like Wood, Hughes had enjoyed quite a bit of success for one of baseball's perennial powerhouses, making an All-Star team and pitching well in the postseason to boot. And like Wood, Hughes headed into FA with a thud, struggling to a 4-14 record and 5.19 ERA in his final season with the Yankees. With this stock down, Hughes settled for a three-year, $24 million contract with the Twins – one of Terry Ryan's finest signings ever, as the right-hander delivered an historic first season in Minnesota. Degenerative shoulder issues and a needless extension turned the narrative around on his tenure, but the thought process behind Hughes's acquisition was more than sound. If he doesn't take a one-year deal to rebuild value and try again next year, Wood will likely end up with a contract similar to the one Hughes signed back then. In the Offseason Handbook, we projected three years and $33 million. Were the Twins to get him at that price, and make him their second- or third-biggest starting pitching addition of the winter, fans would have to be feeling pretty good about the effort. His strong track record, October pedigree, and relative youth all make him a nice fit for a team staring into its contention window. Who strikes you as the top value target on this year's free agent market?
  2. It does seem strange. Suggests to me they don't have a lot of confidence in his elbow to rebound. I heard his velocity has been down too.
  3. The Minnesota Twins' offseason officially kicked off on Monday, with the club announcing several significant roster moves. Nelson Cruz will be back, Martin Perez will not (at least not on the same contract), and Jake Odorizzi faces a tough decision. Meanwhile, another key instructor was extracted by another (dreaded) team, and a pair of former top pitching prospects exited the organization. Read on for more detail on each of these developments as the Hot Stove begins to spark.NELSON CRUZ 2020 OPTION ACTIVATED This barely qualifies as news. Activating the ultra-reasonable $12 million club option on Cruz was a total no-brainer, and the club's intention had already been announced via media reports. Nevertheless, it's now official: Boomstick is back. I've always heard good things about Swanson. My appreciation for him grew upon reading Parker's excellent spring training feature on his efforts to refine Mitch Garver's receiving technique, only to be crystallized as I saw those efforts pay off magnificently during the summer. Swanson is the real deal, and another tough loss in a young offseason that has already seen Minnesota lose hitting coach James Rowson and minor-league hitting coordinator Pete Fatse. If there's any silver lining to be found in this scavenging by rivals, it's that having baseball powerhouses like Boston and New York hiring out of your ranks says a lot about your eye for talent. The Twins' newly reassembled baseball ops unit is becoming a hotbed, and that's about the highest praise you could give Derek Falvey as he enters his third year on the job. (Speaking of which, let's us all just breathe a sigh of relief that Minnesota has evidently missed the biggest potential bullet: I wondered openly if the Red Sox would come calling on Falvey to replace fired GM Dave Dombrowski – turns out they did, and he said no.) How are you feeling about this smattering of moves to kick off Twins' offseason? Anything you'd have done differently? Sound off in the comments. And now an odd request from the Twins Daily community: if you found this page via Facebook, can you please add a comment telling us from which Facebook Page you followed it? It's getting quite a bit of traffic, and we would love to know who is sharing it. Thanks. Click here to view the article
  4. NELSON CRUZ 2020 OPTION ACTIVATED This barely qualifies as news. Activating the ultra-reasonable $12 million club option on Cruz was a total no-brainer, and the club's intention had already been announced via media reports. Nevertheless, it's now official: Boomstick is back. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1191478991129055234 MARTIN PEREZ 2020 OPTION DECLINED Around the middle of May, the decision to activate Perez's team option in 2020 looked about as obvious Cruz's does now. Through his first eight starts he put up a 2.17 ERA, pairing a standout cutter with eye-catching fastball velocity, but it was all downhill from there. He posted a 6.17 ERA the rest of the way and was left off the ALDS roster. The Twins are exercising a $500,000 buyout on the southpaw's $7.5 million option for next year, so he'll enter free agency. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Perez coming back on a one-year deal as a reliever (lefty batters hit just .228/.291/.294 against him this year), but the Twins clearly need to aim higher for the rotation. QUALIFYING OFFER EXTENDED TO JAKE ODORIZZI Coming off a breakthrough season, Odorizzi is poised to hit the open market, but the Twins now have an inside track on retaining him. By making him one of 10 free agents to receive a qualifying offer, the Twins have placed the ball in Odorizzi's court – he can either accept a one-year deal worth $17.8 million, or reject it and negotiate with other teams. Should he sign elsewhere, Minnesota will receive valuable draft pick compensation. Should he find the market underwhelming with this stipulation, the Twins gain leverage as the only team that won't lose a pick by signing him. Carl Pavano's 2010-11 offseason exemplifies such a scenario. It really could go either way with Odorizzi. On the one hand, $17.8 million is a lot of money (especially for a guy who's made around $20 million total in his MLB career), and accepting the QO would enable him to hit free agency unencumbered next winter. On the other hand, he's coming off an All-Star season, and he's still under 30. This might be his best chance to shop himself and score a career-making payday. If his market isn't hot, I assume the Twins would be amenable to a longer deal that makes sense for both sides (we suggested three years, $36 million in the Offseason Handbook). Either outcome puts the team in a favorable position. Odorizzi has 10 days to decide. Michael Pineda was not extended a qualifying offer, so he'll head to free agency with no hindrance other than the 39-game ban carrying over from this year. STEPHEN GONSALVES CLAIMED BY METS Minnesota tried to sneak the lanky left-handed pitching prospect through waivers, but weren't so lucky. Though his entire 2019 season was basically washed out by elbow issues, Gonsalves – Twins Daily's No. 4 prospect as recently as spring of 2018 – has a 2.50 ERA and 9.6 K/9 rate in the minors. He showed some intriguing signs during an altogether inconspicuous MLB debut last year. It's a bummer to lose him for nothing. https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1191477486204456960 But it's also not a shocking or controversial call by the front office. The elbow issues are concerning and likely to linger. Even beyond that, there have always been questions about the viability of his middling fastball against big-league hitters. Turning 26 next season, he isn't young by prospect standards. There's certainly a chance the Twins could live to regret this, but they can mitigate that risk by aggressively pursuing high-caliber arms to replace Gonsalves and his enduring promise. KOHL STEWART OUTRIGHTED, ELECTS FREE AGENCY And there goes one of the most painful busts in franchise history. Drafted with the No. 4 overall pick in 2013, at a time where the Twins desperately needed a transcendent pitcher to reverse their sagging fortunes, Stewart never developed into anything more than a mediocre sinkerballer, incapable of missing bats or consistently throwing strikes anywhere above rookie ball. He departs Minnesota with a 4.79 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 62 big-league innings. Stewart isn't totally hopeless. He's still only 25 and a very good athlete. His outstanding ability to induce grounders is a building-block skill. Maybe a change of scenery will turn him around but the Twins could no longer justify giving him a 40-man spot. CATCHING COORDINATOR POACHED BY YANKEES Amidst this flurry of roster maneuvering, it was a non-player personnel move that hit me hardest today. Per Zone Coverage's Brandon Warne, Twins catching coordinator Tanner Swanson is leaving the club to join the Yankees (UGH) as Major League Catching and Quality Control Coach. https://twitter.com/Brandon_Warne/status/1191447014439043073 I've always heard good things about Swanson. My appreciation for him grew upon reading Parker's excellent spring training feature on his efforts to refine Mitch Garver's receiving technique, only to be crystallized as I saw those efforts pay off magnificently during the summer. Swanson is the real deal, and another tough loss in a young offseason that has already seen Minnesota lose hitting coach James Rowson and minor-league hitting coordinator Pete Fatse. If there's any silver lining to be found in this scavenging by rivals, it's that having baseball powerhouses like Boston and New York hiring out of your ranks says a lot about your eye for talent. The Twins' newly reassembled baseball ops unit is becoming a hotbed, and that's about the highest praise you could give Derek Falvey as he enters his third year on the job. (Speaking of which, let's us all just breathe a sigh of relief that Minnesota has evidently missed the biggest potential bullet: I wondered openly if the Red Sox would come calling on Falvey to replace fired GM Dave Dombrowski – turns out they did, and he said no.) How are you feeling about this smattering of moves to kick off Twins' offseason? Anything you'd have done differently? Sound off in the comments. And now an odd request from the Twins Daily community: if you found this page via Facebook, can you please add a comment telling us from which Facebook Page you followed it? It's getting quite a bit of traffic, and we would love to know who is sharing it. Thanks.
  5. The World Series is over. Time for Hot Stove SZN to commence. You'll be fully prepared for all that lies ahead with your digital copy of the Twins Daily 2020 Offseason Handbook. It's now available for immediate download here. This is a donation-based product – you can set your own price, including zero, then receive it right away. Read on for a little more information about the ebook.This comprehensive overview of the 2019-20 offseason landscape is narrated through a Twins-centric lens, with in-depth coverage of every key storyline and possibility. Inside, you'll find: Explorations of important offseason focuses from Twins Daily writers like John Bonnes, Parker Hageman, Seth Stohs, Tom Froemming, Jeremy Nygaard, and myself.Guest features from R.T. Rybak (former Mpls mayor), Glen Perkins (three-time Twins All-Star closer), Dan Hayes (beat writer for The Athletic), and Matthew Trueblood (columnist at Baseball Prospectus).Beautiful design throughout, courtesy of Twins Daily's Brock Beauchamp.Profiles on dozens of free agent and trade targetsBreakdowns on payroll, organizational depth, arbitration decisions, and more.Unique stories on the team's evolving defensive strategies, their systematic overhaul in pitching development, the new catching workload philosophy, and more.A create-your-own blueprint exercise, challenging you to assemble a championship roster within feasible resource constraints.If you have any questions about the product, you'll likely find them answered by checking out:A full rundown of everything that's inside this year's Offseason HandbookOur Offseason Handbook FAQLast year's full editionDonations of any size are welcome (recommended amount is $10) as a token of gratitude for the hard work that goes into creating this robust, colorful, comprehensive digital guide to the Twins offseason, as well as the free content we publish every day here at Twins Daily throughout the year. But above all, we want everyone to enjoy the Handbook. We know you're going to love this Handbook, and it'll serve as the backbone for much of our offseason coverage here on the site. Your instant download is only a couple clicks away. DOWNLOAD TWINS DAILY'S 2020 OFFSEASON HANDBOOK Download attachment: Screen Shot 2019-11-03 at 12.37.25 PM.png Download attachment: Screen Shot 2019-11-03 at 12.38.07 PM.png Click here to view the article
  6. This comprehensive overview of the 2019-20 offseason landscape is narrated through a Twins-centric lens, with in-depth coverage of every key storyline and possibility. Inside, you'll find: Explorations of important offseason focuses from Twins Daily writers like John Bonnes, Parker Hageman, Seth Stohs, Tom Froemming, Jeremy Nygaard, and myself. Guest features from R.T. Rybak (former Mpls mayor), Glen Perkins (three-time Twins All-Star closer), Dan Hayes (beat writer for The Athletic), and Matthew Trueblood (columnist at Baseball Prospectus). Beautiful design throughout, courtesy of Twins Daily's Brock Beauchamp. Profiles on dozens of free agent and trade targets Breakdowns on payroll, organizational depth, arbitration decisions, and more. Unique stories on the team's evolving defensive strategies, their systematic overhaul in pitching development, the new catching workload philosophy, and more. A create-your-own blueprint exercise, challenging you to assemble a championship roster within feasible resource constraints. If you have any questions about the product, you'll likely find them answered by checking out: A full rundown of everything that's inside this year's Offseason Handbook Our Offseason Handbook FAQ Last year's full edition Donations of any size are welcome (recommended amount is $10) as a token of gratitude for the hard work that goes into creating this robust, colorful, comprehensive digital guide to the Twins offseason, as well as the free content we publish every day here at Twins Daily throughout the year. But above all, we want everyone to enjoy the Handbook. We know you're going to love this Handbook, and it'll serve as the backbone for much of our offseason coverage here on the site. Your instant download is only a couple clicks away. DOWNLOAD TWINS DAILY'S 2020 OFFSEASON HANDBOOK
  7. Email us at twinscentric@gmail.com - we'll get you taken care of right away. If anyone else is reading this and hasn't received your preorder, please do the same. Our system is telling us emails got sent to everyone on the list but it seems some weren't received. We're working on a fix.
  8. The Twins are going to make a trade this offseason. They will very likely make several. And you'd be hard-pressed to find a single player more likely to be moved – or at least dangled – by Minnesota than Eddie Rosario. What does his market look like, realistically?Yesterday Cooper Carlson published a good piece on Rosario's downward trend, which basically makes the case for a trade on Minnesota's end. But to sum it all up, here's why the Twins likely view Rosario as an expendable piece: Top prospects Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Brent Rooker have all reached either Triple-A or Double-A. It's all but certain at least one of these advanced bats will be ready for the big-leagues by the middle of next summer, if not sooner.Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade, Jr. have both proven capable of filling in until a prospect arrives. Marwin Gonzalez can also play in left. All are superior defensively to Rosario.Entering his second turn at arbitration, Rosario is only two seasons away from free agency, and his salary is going to rise significantly from this year's $4.2 million. The extent of his raise could become a point of contention, for the same reason his trade market is so tough to peg: Rosario epitomizes the philosophical divide between traditional and modern schools of performance evaluation.Batting cleanup all year for the most powerful offense in baseball history, Rosario launched 32 homers and drove in 109 runs, both career highs. But these baseball-card fixtures overstate the quality of his performance. Rosario made outs in 70% of his plate appearances. Statcast's Outs Above Average metric rated him as the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. He ranked 11th among Twins hitters in fWAR and his wOBA sat in the vicinity of Jason Castro, Ehire Adrianza, and C.J. Cron. Having said all that, Rosario's strengths and track record should not be entirely downplayed. Paul Molitor liked to say you always want one guy in your lineup who can thwart a pitcher that is totally dialed in. Eddie brings that "strike anytime" dynamic. When he gets on a hot streak, he borders on unstoppable, leaving pitchers with nowhere to hide. He's also a charismatic fan favorite, an energizer in the clubhouse, and a relentlessly fierce competitor. Although his reputation as Mr. Spotlight felt a bit miscast in the second half – amid futile "Eddie" chants – it is a well earned one. His pinch-hit walk-off homer at Target Field and game-ending gundown at Fenway were among the unforgettable 2019 highlights. He batted .340 with runners in scoring position and had a .983 OPS in Close & Late situations. Count the Twins and their analytically-inclined rookie manager among those who buy into Rosario's mystique: Rocco Baldelli wrote Rosario's name into the cleanup spot for all but five of his starts (he batted third in those). To what extent is this sentiment shared around the league? Do other increasingly sophisticated front offices view Rosario as a player whose presence and impact transcend the overall numbers and analytical conventions? It's no secret to anyone that his defense and speed have declined sharply, but Eddie is still only 28. His athleticism is still high, and he hasn't quite reached his ceiling. Any team acquiring him gets the two final years of his 20s. It seems fair to say that Rosario will be an appealing trade target – for the right buyer – but his market will be tempered. Who is that right buyer, and what might they be willing to offer? Let's try and whittle down to some prospective trade partners that make sense. Presumably they won't trade him within the division. That removes CLE, CWS, KC, DET. It can't be a team that has no real hope of contending during Rosario's remaining two years of control. Cross off BAL, SEA, MIA, PIT, CIN. We'll dash every team that is already loaded on offense, and/or easily capable of spending freely to get more of it: NYY, BOS, HOU, LAD, ATL, CHC, WAS, PHI, NYM, STL, COL. Okay, that leaves us with nine teams. I'll go through them one-by-one to assess the specific matches. TAMPA BAY RAYS Tough to see the team that viewed Corey Dickerson as expendable giving up much for Rosario. This just isn't a Rays-like move, and they've got ample outfield depth anyway. No match. TORONTO BLUE JAYS I was tempted to include them among hopeless non-contenders, but they have enough young talent that they could turn the corner in a hurry, particularly if they address the pitching staff with gusto. Problem is, left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was their best hitter this year, and right fielder Randal Grichuk (a very similar player to Rosario) is under contract through 2023. No match. OAKLAND ATHLETICS This one rather intrigues me. Oakland's primary corner outfielders – Robbie Grossman and Stephen Piscotty – combined for 19 homers and 1.4 fWAR in 2019. The A's have no outfielders among their top eight prospects, per MLB Pipeline. There's a fairly obvious need here, and acquiring Rosario would enable them to make an impact add without tying themselves up in a bulky free-agent contract. The A's are deep in arms that could appeal to the Twins. Maybe Chris Bassitt? Keep in mind that Rosario is pretty much the antithesis of a Billy Beane "Moneyball" specimen.. TEXAS RANGERS I'm sure Eddie would LOVE to play in this park 160 times before hitting free agency. He's a career .328/.349/.517 hitter in Arlington, a notorious hitter's haven when the temps heat up. Unfortunately for him, it's tough to see the Rangers having a need, with solid corner outfield depth headed by Joey Gallo and Willie Calhoun. No match. LOS ANGELES ANGELS Hmmmm. Urgency is increasing for the Angels to do SOMETHING during Mike Trout's fleeting prime, lest they carry the burden of wasting one of baseball's greatest careers ever. Kole Calhoun is a free agent. They're gonna making some moves to set up new manager Joe Maddon for success; wouldn't be crazy to see a Rosario acquisition among them. Would reliever Cam Bedrosian plus a low-level prospect be a sensible return? MILWAUKEE BREWERS The thought of Rosario playing opposite Christian Yelich is fun. Only one problem: Ryan Braun, who remains under contract through next year, with a 2021 option. No match. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS Rosario's old partner in the Ed-n-Eddie duo, Eduardo Escobar, thrived during his first year in the desert with 35 homers and 118 RBIs. The D-backs, who sorely lacked for corner OF punch this year, could well be interested in reuniting them. Were Arizona to be open to something involving closer Archie Bradley, who like Rosie has two years of control remaining, this could be a good fit. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS If there's no bad blood from the Sam Dyson fiasco, this could work. I'm not sure the Twins would be enticed by anyone on San Francisco's big-league roster, but the Giants have a number of promising arms in the minors – some close to MLB-ready. SAN DIEGO PADRES Over the past two winters, the Padres invested $450 million Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado. The returns thus far have been less than great. Nevertheless, GM A.J. Preller is now tasked with building around them in a reasonably efficient way. Above all, this team needs cost-efficient offensive production, although their decision to give up Franmil Reyes at the deadline in July clashes with this assumption. If they're high on Rosario, I'm sure they could easily put together a package of arms to make it worth Minnesota's while. If you had to put your money a landing spot for Rosario, where would it be? (And that can definitely include "Minnesota.") Click here to view the article
  9. Yesterday Cooper Carlson published a good piece on Rosario's downward trend, which basically makes the case for a trade on Minnesota's end. But to sum it all up, here's why the Twins likely view Rosario as an expendable piece: Top prospects Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Brent Rooker have all reached either Triple-A or Double-A. It's all but certain at least one of these advanced bats will be ready for the big-leagues by the middle of next summer, if not sooner. Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade, Jr. have both proven capable of filling in until a prospect arrives. Marwin Gonzalez can also play in left. All are superior defensively to Rosario. Entering his second turn at arbitration, Rosario is only two seasons away from free agency, and his salary is going to rise significantly from this year's $4.2 million. The extent of his raise could become a point of contention, for the same reason his trade market is so tough to peg: Rosario epitomizes the philosophical divide between traditional and modern schools of performance evaluation. Batting cleanup all year for the most powerful offense in baseball history, Rosario launched 32 homers and drove in 109 runs, both career highs. But these baseball-card fixtures overstate the quality of his performance. Rosario made outs in 70% of his plate appearances. Statcast's Outs Above Average metric rated him as the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. He ranked 11th among Twins hitters in fWAR and his wOBA sat in the vicinity of Jason Castro, Ehire Adrianza, and C.J. Cron. Having said all that, Rosario's strengths and track record should not be entirely downplayed. Paul Molitor liked to say you always want one guy in your lineup who can thwart a pitcher that is totally dialed in. Eddie brings that "strike anytime" dynamic. When he gets on a hot streak, he borders on unstoppable, leaving pitchers with nowhere to hide. He's also a charismatic fan favorite, an energizer in the clubhouse, and a relentlessly fierce competitor. Although his reputation as Mr. Spotlight felt a bit miscast in the second half – amid futile "Eddie" chants – it is a well earned one. His pinch-hit walk-off homer at Target Field and game-ending gundown at Fenway were among the unforgettable 2019 highlights. He batted .340 with runners in scoring position and had a .983 OPS in Close & Late situations. Count the Twins and their analytically-inclined rookie manager among those who buy into Rosario's mystique: Rocco Baldelli wrote Rosario's name into the cleanup spot for all but five of his starts (he batted third in those). To what extent is this sentiment shared around the league? Do other increasingly sophisticated front offices view Rosario as a player whose presence and impact transcend the overall numbers and analytical conventions? It's no secret to anyone that his defense and speed have declined sharply, but Eddie is still only 28. His athleticism is still high, and he hasn't quite reached his ceiling. Any team acquiring him gets the two final years of his 20s. It seems fair to say that Rosario will be an appealing trade target – for the right buyer – but his market will be tempered. Who is that right buyer, and what might they be willing to offer? Let's try and whittle down to some prospective trade partners that make sense. Presumably they won't trade him within the division. That removes CLE, CWS, KC, DET. It can't be a team that has no real hope of contending during Rosario's remaining two years of control. Cross off BAL, SEA, MIA, PIT, CIN. We'll dash every team that is already loaded on offense, and/or easily capable of spending freely to get more of it: NYY, BOS, HOU, LAD, ATL, CHC, WAS, PHI, NYM, STL, COL. Okay, that leaves us with nine teams. I'll go through them one-by-one to assess the specific matches. TAMPA BAY RAYS Tough to see the team that viewed Corey Dickerson as expendable giving up much for Rosario. This just isn't a Rays-like move, and they've got ample outfield depth anyway. No match. TORONTO BLUE JAYS I was tempted to include them among hopeless non-contenders, but they have enough young talent that they could turn the corner in a hurry, particularly if they address the pitching staff with gusto. Problem is, left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was their best hitter this year, and right fielder Randal Grichuk (a very similar player to Rosario) is under contract through 2023. No match. OAKLAND ATHLETICS This one rather intrigues me. Oakland's primary corner outfielders – Robbie Grossman and Stephen Piscotty – combined for 19 homers and 1.4 fWAR in 2019. The A's have no outfielders among their top eight prospects, per MLB Pipeline. There's a fairly obvious need here, and acquiring Rosario would enable them to make an impact add without tying themselves up in a bulky free-agent contract. The A's are deep in arms that could appeal to the Twins. Maybe Chris Bassitt? Keep in mind that Rosario is pretty much the antithesis of a Billy Beane "Moneyball" specimen.. TEXAS RANGERS I'm sure Eddie would LOVE to play in this park 160 times before hitting free agency. He's a career .328/.349/.517 hitter in Arlington, a notorious hitter's haven when the temps heat up. Unfortunately for him, it's tough to see the Rangers having a need, with solid corner outfield depth headed by Joey Gallo and Willie Calhoun. No match. LOS ANGELES ANGELS Hmmmm. Urgency is increasing for the Angels to do SOMETHING during Mike Trout's fleeting prime, lest they carry the burden of wasting one of baseball's greatest careers ever. Kole Calhoun is a free agent. They're gonna making some moves to set up new manager Joe Maddon for success; wouldn't be crazy to see a Rosario acquisition among them. Would reliever Cam Bedrosian plus a low-level prospect be a sensible return? MILWAUKEE BREWERS The thought of Rosario playing opposite Christian Yelich is fun. Only one problem: Ryan Braun, who remains under contract through next year, with a 2021 option. No match. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS Rosario's old partner in the Ed-n-Eddie duo, Eduardo Escobar, thrived during his first year in the desert with 35 homers and 118 RBIs. The D-backs, who sorely lacked for corner OF punch this year, could well be interested in reuniting them. Were Arizona to be open to something involving closer Archie Bradley, who like Rosie has two years of control remaining, this could be a good fit. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS If there's no bad blood from the Sam Dyson fiasco, this could work. I'm not sure the Twins would be enticed by anyone on San Francisco's big-league roster, but the Giants have a number of promising arms in the minors – some close to MLB-ready. SAN DIEGO PADRES Over the past two winters, the Padres invested $450 million Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado. The returns thus far have been less than great. Nevertheless, GM A.J. Preller is now tasked with building around them in a reasonably efficient way. Above all, this team needs cost-efficient offensive production, although their decision to give up Franmil Reyes at the deadline in July clashes with this assumption. If they're high on Rosario, I'm sure they could easily put together a package of arms to make it worth Minnesota's while. If you had to put your money a landing spot for Rosario, where would it be? (And that can definitely include "Minnesota.")
  10. The World Series might end on Tuesday night. The release of the 2020 Offseason Handbook is imminent. Today, we're providing a glimpse of everything that awaits in this robust guide to the months ahead.We are working hard to finish up this year's edition of our annual Offseason Handbook. It will be released to preorders later this week. Anyone who does NOT preorder by the last out will have to wait unhappily for an extra three days. So preorder your digital copy now, and join the early birds. (Disclosure: If you do choose to wait, you can download it free, or $1, or $5, instead of paying the $10 preorder minimum. Pay whatever you're comfortable with, including nothing. We just want you to get it.) Here's what you'll find inside this downloadable PDF once it hits your inbox: Foreword, by R.T. Rybak: We sampled the former Minnneapolis mayor's poetic prelude last week.Introduction: You can read the entire thing in our post setting up the 2019-20 Twins offseason.Five Offseason Focuses: These stand out as the five most critical areas to address in the next few months.40-Man Roster: A snapshot of the Twins' roster as it stands heading into the offseason.Organizational Depth Charts, by Seth Stohs: Breakdowns of the system's current depth, and most promising upcoming prospects, at each position. This is what you're working with.Arbitration Decisions: With 10 Twins players eligible for arbitration, we analyze their situations and project a 2020 salary. Stay or go? That's up to you.Payroll Analysis, by John Bonnes: Geek presents all the details around spending in 2020: what's committed, what's realistic in terms of flexibility, what's possible if the purse strings really open up. He goes into greater depth on the #3Pitchers70Million framework shared here.Free Agents: Profiles and blurbs on dozens of available free agents, along with estimated contracts. We dive deep on the clear positions of need – catcher, rotation, bullpen – while also touching on other noteworthy names.Trade Targets, by Jeremy Nygaard: The creator of our Roster & Payroll tool, Jeremy has a strong grasp of MLB rosters and their technical management. We asked him to come up with some trade targets and scenarios for the Handbook, and he came through with 16 names. You can warm up with my list of four off-the-radar pitching targets not on Jeremy's list."Could the Twins Actually Sign Gerrit Cole?" by me: Even if he ends up receiving the biggest free agent pitching contract in MLB history, it's not totally outlandish to envision the Twin as realistic players for the crown jewel of the market. I'll examine this topic from five angles: the player, the need, the fit, the cost, and the impact."Could the Twins Find the Next Gerrit Cole?" by Tom Froemming: Offering the flipside of the previous feature, Twins Daily's head editor states his thesis off the bat. "Gerrit Cole was built, not bought." Tom follows with a thoughtful look at how the Twins might uncover the next rotation revelation, rather than paying the highest of premiums."Breaking Down the Bullpen Picture," by Glen Perkins: Third on the all-time Twins saves list, number one in our hearts. Who better to weigh in on the state of the Minnesota bullpen than a man who was recently its chief ambassador? Since retiring two years ago following a 12-year playing career spent solely wearing the TC, the three-time All-Star closer now lends insight as a TV and radio analyst. We appreciate him weighing in on the current setup."Fickleness of Free Agent Relievers," by me: As we put together another list of enticing-on-the-surface free agent relief options this year, I felt compelled to include a "buyer beware" warning. So I went back to last year's Handbook and reviewed how each one panned out: where they signed, for how much, and the ROI on their cost relative to their production. Not to get all clickbaity but... the results may shock you."How Rest, Rocco and Recovery Won Over Mitch Garver," by Dan Hayes: The Athletic's Twins beat writer delivers an extremely informative story on the team's enlightened handling of catcher workload. You'll learn why Mitch Garver played in just over half the team's games, and how his initial reluctance turned to advocacy by season's end. This dynamic will greatly affect offseason planning at catcher, with Jason Castro heading to free agency."The Revamped Twins Pitching Development Engine," by Parker Hageman: Building a championship-caliber staff is about more than trades and signings. It's about embedding an infrastructure that maximizes what you have, and unearths hidden gems. Through his uniquely perceptive lens, Parker unpacks the franchise's systematic overhaul in arms development under Derek Falvey."Shifting Plans for the Twins Defense," by Matthew Trueblood: Improving run prevention isn't exclusively the domain of pitching. Minnesota's defense struggled in the second half of 2019, contributing to key losses (especially in the ALDS). Matthew, a staple at Baseball Prospectus and welcome addition to our writing rotation here at Twins Daily, submits a data-packed rundown on the team's defensive strategy.Twins Daily Cheat Sheet: The Handbook closes with an open-ended exercise. Using all the preceding information (plus your own unrepresented ideas), create an offseason blueprint that turns the Twins into a World Series contender, while adhering to reasonable parameters. Share it here on the site.Preorder your digital copy now and be among the first to explore all this awesome content! If you have any questions, check out the Offseason Handbook FAQ or shoot us an email at twinscentric@gmail.com. Click here to view the article
  11. We are working hard to finish up this year's edition of our annual Offseason Handbook. It will be released to preorders later this week. Anyone who does NOT preorder by the last out will have to wait unhappily for an extra three days. So preorder your digital copy now, and join the early birds. (Disclosure: If you do choose to wait, you can download it free, or $1, or $5, instead of paying the $10 preorder minimum. Pay whatever you're comfortable with, including nothing. We just want you to get it.) Here's what you'll find inside this downloadable PDF once it hits your inbox: Foreword, by R.T. Rybak: We sampled the former Minnneapolis mayor's poetic prelude last week. Introduction: You can read the entire thing in our post setting up the 2019-20 Twins offseason. Five Offseason Focuses: These stand out as the five most critical areas to address in the next few months. 40-Man Roster: A snapshot of the Twins' roster as it stands heading into the offseason. Organizational Depth Charts, by Seth Stohs: Breakdowns of the system's current depth, and most promising upcoming prospects, at each position. This is what you're working with. Arbitration Decisions: With 10 Twins players eligible for arbitration, we analyze their situations and project a 2020 salary. Stay or go? That's up to you. Payroll Analysis, by John Bonnes: Geek presents all the details around spending in 2020: what's committed, what's realistic in terms of flexibility, what's possible if the purse strings really open up. He goes into greater depth on the #3Pitchers70Million framework shared here. Free Agents: Profiles and blurbs on dozens of available free agents, along with estimated contracts. We dive deep on the clear positions of need – catcher, rotation, bullpen – while also touching on other noteworthy names. Trade Targets, by Jeremy Nygaard: The creator of our Roster & Payroll tool, Jeremy has a strong grasp of MLB rosters and their technical management. We asked him to come up with some trade targets and scenarios for the Handbook, and he came through with 16 names. You can warm up with my list of four off-the-radar pitching targets not on Jeremy's list. "Could the Twins Actually Sign Gerrit Cole?" by me: Even if he ends up receiving the biggest free agent pitching contract in MLB history, it's not totally outlandish to envision the Twin as realistic players for the crown jewel of the market. I'll examine this topic from five angles: the player, the need, the fit, the cost, and the impact. "Could the Twins Find the Next Gerrit Cole?" by Tom Froemming: Offering the flipside of the previous feature, Twins Daily's head editor states his thesis off the bat. "Gerrit Cole was built, not bought." Tom follows with a thoughtful look at how the Twins might uncover the next rotation revelation, rather than paying the highest of premiums. "Breaking Down the Bullpen Picture," by Glen Perkins: Third on the all-time Twins saves list, number one in our hearts. Who better to weigh in on the state of the Minnesota bullpen than a man who was recently its chief ambassador? Since retiring two years ago following a 12-year playing career spent solely wearing the TC, the three-time All-Star closer now lends insight as a TV and radio analyst. We appreciate him weighing in on the current setup. "Fickleness of Free Agent Relievers," by me: As we put together another list of enticing-on-the-surface free agent relief options this year, I felt compelled to include a "buyer beware" warning. So I went back to last year's Handbook and reviewed how each one panned out: where they signed, for how much, and the ROI on their cost relative to their production. Not to get all clickbaity but... the results may shock you. "How Rest, Rocco and Recovery Won Over Mitch Garver," by Dan Hayes: The Athletic's Twins beat writer delivers an extremely informative story on the team's enlightened handling of catcher workload. You'll learn why Mitch Garver played in just over half the team's games, and how his initial reluctance turned to advocacy by season's end. This dynamic will greatly affect offseason planning at catcher, with Jason Castro heading to free agency. "The Revamped Twins Pitching Development Engine," by Parker Hageman: Building a championship-caliber staff is about more than trades and signings. It's about embedding an infrastructure that maximizes what you have, and unearths hidden gems. Through his uniquely perceptive lens, Parker unpacks the franchise's systematic overhaul in arms development under Derek Falvey. "Shifting Plans for the Twins Defense," by Matthew Trueblood: Improving run prevention isn't exclusively the domain of pitching. Minnesota's defense struggled in the second half of 2019, contributing to key losses (especially in the ALDS). Matthew, a staple at Baseball Prospectus and welcome addition to our writing rotation here at Twins Daily, submits a data-packed rundown on the team's defensive strategy. Twins Daily Cheat Sheet: The Handbook closes with an open-ended exercise. Using all the preceding information (plus your own unrepresented ideas), create an offseason blueprint that turns the Twins into a World Series contender, while adhering to reasonable parameters. Share it here on the site. Preorder your digital copy now and be among the first to explore all this awesome content! If you have any questions, check out the Offseason Handbook FAQ or shoot us an email at twinscentric@gmail.com.
  12. That's the problem in adding impact starting pitching via free agency. Which is the premise of this article! The Astros got Cole for 2 years and $20 million. The Red Sox got Sale for 3 years and $40 million before they extended him. Trades are where the value is found. If you think 3 of the 4 guys in the article are nonstarters, I won't argue with you. You're probably right. But the point is that the Twins should aim high, and be open to giving up a "king's ransom" for the right player.
  13. I've heard his name mentioned a lot, but I guess I just don't see why the Rockies would trade Gray. They don't exactly come up with pitchers of his caliber often.
  14. Sorry to hear that. Just trying to generate some fun discussion as we wait for the offseason to actually get started. If you want, you can submit some of your own names and rationales here in the comments. I bet people will be nicer to you even if they find 'em implausible!
  15. Probably true. I'm not entirely closed off to that route. It depends on how much you trust the systems the Twins have put in place to continually develop that pipeline. Parker has a really great story in the Handbook exploring the transformation that's taken place. Count me as a believer.
  16. Free agency is clearly an avenue the Twins need to explore this offseason in their efforts to upgrade the rotation. The financial flexibility is there, with plenty of impact talent to be had. But if the American League's recent history is any indication, it is the trade market that's most instrumental to building a championship-caliber rotation. What opportunities await Minnesota on this front?The Astros have assembled a two-headed monster atop their rotation through trades, acquiring both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Last year's World Series champs, the Red Sox, landed their ace Chris Sale in a deal with Chicago. Boston's 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello was also a trade pickup, but that year it was Cleveland winning the AL pennant, led by trade acquisitions Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Previously, James Shields pitched the Royals into a World Series after coming over from Tampa. Free agents and internally developed talent have played a part too, of course, but it's fair to say that trades have been massively influential in building the rotations that are running the league over the past half-decade. In the 2020 Offseason Handbook (now available for preorder!), Jeremy Nygaard presents cases for 16 different players (mostly starting pitchers) the Twins could target via trade in the coming months. There are plenty of logical names on his list, and I'm sure we'll be hearing several of them discussed repeatedly as the offseason gets underway. Today, I'm going to dig a little deeper and highlight four players who aren't on his list, and aren't being mentioned much in connection with the Twins generally. It might be a stretch to believe some of these players are available (particularly the last one), but then again, if there's a will there's a way. 4 OUTSIDE-THE-BOX TWINS ROTATION TARGETS Chris Paddack, RHP Team: Padres 2019 Stats: 146 IP, 3.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 Contract Status: Under team control through 2024 Most of the names covered here will be established veteran players, whose value lies in their immediate and short-term impact potential. Paddack, conversely, is more of a big-picture target – the kind that jibes with this front office's thinking. He was ranked by MLB.com as the 34th-best prospect in baseball ahead of the 2019 campaign, and dubbed by Prospects Live as a future ace. Paddack looked the part as a 23-year-old rookie for the Padres, posting those numbers you see above. You might read those numbers, in combination with the five remaining years of team control, and ask, "Why on Earth would San Diego even think about trading this guy?" It's a fair question. Fresh off signing Manny Machado to a $300 million mega-deal, the Padres are not in the business of shipping off key pieces and rebuilding endlessly. Thing is, even with Machado, they still finished in last place in 2019 with one of the league's least potent offenses – both familiar scenarios. Despite routinely sporting solid-to-great pitching staffs, the Padres can't escape the NL West cellar, in large part because they haven't had a 700-run season in more than a decade. They need offensive firepower, and with Machado and Eric Hosmer consuming a huge portion of payroll for the next many years, they need it at controllable cost. The Twins can help in that area. Start with Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, or Byron Buxton. Perhaps even dangle Max Kepler and his highly attractive contract, if the Padres demand proven production and durability. Throw in another top-tier prospect or two and you've got a valid offer for Paddack at the very least. The price will hurt, but he could be a franchise-altering addition for the Twins. Sonny Gray, RHP Team: Reds 2019 Stats: 175.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 Contract Status: Signed through 2022 ($10M/yr) w/ $12M option in 2023 Download attachment: USATSI_13408569_154617946_lowres.jpg Photo by David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports Formerly a young rotation-fronter for the A's, Gray took a major step back from 2016 through 2018, posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.38 WHIP during a three-year period that included a tumultuous stint in New York. The Yankees dealt him to Cincinnati in January with his value depressed, and the deal proved to be a coup for the Reds. In the National League, Gray returned to form and then some. He posted a career-high strikeout rate, made the All-Star team, and held opponents to a .196 batting average (.165 in the second half). Best of all, he remains under control at a reasonable rate for three more years. Yep, the Reds did quite well for themselves, and now they could complete the act by selling high after buying low. Cincinnati's 26-year-old rotation centerpiece, Luis Castillo, probably isn't going anywhere, but the club might be open to listening on the historically volatile Gray, who has three (cost-efficient) years left on his deal. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in September, which adds to his uncertainty. The operation was considered minor, and if he continues to pitch like he did this year, the righty makes a quality complement to Berrios afront the rotation, while also leaving plenty of flexibility to commit big dollars to a top free agent who can slot ahead of them. Gray won't come cheap in prospect capital. If Eddie Rosario is in the package, it's as no more than an add-on. You'll need to be ready to part with good young talent to sway the Reds, who will surely have multiple bidders if they make Gray available. Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach might need to be in play. Chris Archer, RHP Team: Pirates 2019 Stats: 119.2 IP, 5.19 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 Contract Status: Club options for 2020 ($9M) and 2021 ($11M) Download attachment: USATSI_13236658_154617946_lowres.jpg Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Whereas the Twins would be buying high on Gray, the opposite is true of Archer. Pittsburgh gave up big prospect talent to acquire him from Tampa in July of 2018, and the move has been nothing short of disastrous for them. Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows, whom the Pirates gave up in the swap, are emerging as young stars for the Rays. Archer has been sub-mediocre for Pittsburgh. A cautionary tale for a team like the Twins, to be sure. But Archer's still got some game in him, provided he can get past the shoulder inflammation that shut him down in September. At 31, he's far from ancient. He still brings heat in the mid-90s regularly, with a dirty slider, and struck out 27% of the batters he faced in 2019. (Michael Pineda led Twins starters at 23%.) I'd be curious to see what Wes Johnson and Company could do with him. Much like Gray, Archer has a very appealing contract, with two years of optional control at below-market rates. Unlike Gray, he likely wouldn't cost one of Minnesota's most coveted prospects. You'll have to do enough to entice Pittsburgh, naturally, but coming off a last-place finish the Pirates should be open-minded. Clayton Kershaw, LHP Team: Dodgers 2019 Stats: 178.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 Contract Status: Signed through 2021 ($31M/yr) Download attachment: USATSI_13490232_154617946_lowres.jpg Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Okay. This one may seem like a reach. A healthy Clayton Kershaw has an argument as the best pitcher in the game, and maybe in modern history. He's already a Hall of Fame lock at age 31. And the championship-thirsty Dodgers have him under control for another two years. Would Los Angeles even dream of listening on this legendary southpaw? Maybe not. Probably not. But hear me out. The Dodgers have one sole aspiration that overrides all else: winning a World Series. The franchise hasn't hoisted a trophy since the Kirk Gibson Series in 1988. It's not for a lack of spending or trying. They've gone to the playoffs seven straight years, and continually come up empty in their quest. Despite the unparalleled excellence of Kershaw over this entire span, they just keep on falling short. And as weird as it is to say for an eight-time All-Star, three-time Cy Young winner, former MVP, etc.: Kershaw has himself been somewhat culpable. His body hasn't held up of late, as he's missed time in each of the past four seasons (albeit never hugely significant time). More pertinently, he has failed to match his regular-season dominance in October, and most recently he gave up back-to-back homers in the most crucial of Game 5 spots to effectively punch LA's ticket for an early exit in the NLDS. No one is gonna be fooled by this unfortunate blip, or by Kershaw's "career-worst" season (quotes added to emphasize the relativity of this statement), into thinking he's anything less than a premier starting pitcher in the game. The cost to acquire him would be off-the-charts – we're probably talking Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, as a starting point. But, I dunno. if you're the Dodgers, and you have a chance to make that deal while reinvesting Kershaw's salary into signing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg... don't you do it? And if you're the Twins, ready to push your chips in, confident in your ability to develop more future stars... don't you do it? Kershaw is a legend in Los Angeles. Rightfully so. But the city's faith in him has to be at an all-time low right now. And the Dodgers are primed for a big shakeup of some sort this winter. They've been attempting to ride Kershaw to a championship unsuccessfully for a decade, and now might represent their last chance to recoup maximum value in a trade before he returns to free agency. The Twins would need to be supremely confident in Kershaw's ability to sustain ace-like performance, and keep his chronic back issues at bay. But if so, and the Dodgers are actually open to such an idea, this is an opportunity you can't pass up. Right? Share your thoughts in the comments and keep the discussion going by sharing your favorite outside-the-box pitching trade targets for the Twins. Why might they be available? What would it realistically take to acquire them? It's a good way to warm ourselves up for the 2020 Offseason Handbook, which those who preorder will receive this week! Click here to view the article
  17. The Astros have assembled a two-headed monster atop their rotation through trades, acquiring both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Last year's World Series champs, the Red Sox, landed their ace Chris Sale in a deal with Chicago. Boston's 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello was also a trade pickup, but that year it was Cleveland winning the AL pennant, led by trade acquisitions Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Previously, James Shields pitched the Royals into a World Series after coming over from Tampa. Free agents and internally developed talent have played a part too, of course, but it's fair to say that trades have been massively influential in building the rotations that are running the league over the past half-decade. In the 2020 Offseason Handbook (now available for preorder!), Jeremy Nygaard presents cases for 16 different players (mostly starting pitchers) the Twins could target via trade in the coming months. There are plenty of logical names on his list, and I'm sure we'll be hearing several of them discussed repeatedly as the offseason gets underway. Today, I'm going to dig a little deeper and highlight four players who aren't on his list, and aren't being mentioned much in connection with the Twins generally. It might be a stretch to believe some of these players are available (particularly the last one), but then again, if there's a will there's a way. 4 OUTSIDE-THE-BOX TWINS ROTATION TARGETS Chris Paddack, RHP Team: Padres 2019 Stats: 146 IP, 3.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 Contract Status: Under team control through 2024 Most of the names covered here will be established veteran players, whose value lies in their immediate and short-term impact potential. Paddack, conversely, is more of a big-picture target – the kind that jibes with this front office's thinking. He was ranked by MLB.com as the 34th-best prospect in baseball ahead of the 2019 campaign, and dubbed by Prospects Live as a future ace. Paddack looked the part as a 23-year-old rookie for the Padres, posting those numbers you see above. You might read those numbers, in combination with the five remaining years of team control, and ask, "Why on Earth would San Diego even think about trading this guy?" It's a fair question. Fresh off signing Manny Machado to a $300 million mega-deal, the Padres are not in the business of shipping off key pieces and rebuilding endlessly. Thing is, even with Machado, they still finished in last place in 2019 with one of the league's least potent offenses – both familiar scenarios. Despite routinely sporting solid-to-great pitching staffs, the Padres can't escape the NL West cellar, in large part because they haven't had a 700-run season in more than a decade. They need offensive firepower, and with Machado and Eric Hosmer consuming a huge portion of payroll for the next many years, they need it at controllable cost. The Twins can help in that area. Start with Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, or Byron Buxton. Perhaps even dangle Max Kepler and his highly attractive contract, if the Padres demand proven production and durability. Throw in another top-tier prospect or two and you've got a valid offer for Paddack at the very least. The price will hurt, but he could be a franchise-altering addition for the Twins. Sonny Gray, RHP Team: Reds 2019 Stats: 175.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 Contract Status: Signed through 2022 ($10M/yr) w/ $12M option in 2023 Photo by David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports Formerly a young rotation-fronter for the A's, Gray took a major step back from 2016 through 2018, posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.38 WHIP during a three-year period that included a tumultuous stint in New York. The Yankees dealt him to Cincinnati in January with his value depressed, and the deal proved to be a coup for the Reds. In the National League, Gray returned to form and then some. He posted a career-high strikeout rate, made the All-Star team, and held opponents to a .196 batting average (.165 in the second half). Best of all, he remains under control at a reasonable rate for three more years. Yep, the Reds did quite well for themselves, and now they could complete the act by selling high after buying low. Cincinnati's 26-year-old rotation centerpiece, Luis Castillo, probably isn't going anywhere, but the club might be open to listening on the historically volatile Gray, who has three (cost-efficient) years left on his deal. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in September, which adds to his uncertainty. The operation was considered minor, and if he continues to pitch like he did this year, the righty makes a quality complement to Berrios afront the rotation, while also leaving plenty of flexibility to commit big dollars to a top free agent who can slot ahead of them. Gray won't come cheap in prospect capital. If Eddie Rosario is in the package, it's as no more than an add-on. You'll need to be ready to part with good young talent to sway the Reds, who will surely have multiple bidders if they make Gray available. Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach might need to be in play. Chris Archer, RHP Team: Pirates 2019 Stats: 119.2 IP, 5.19 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 Contract Status: Club options for 2020 ($9M) and 2021 ($11M) Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Whereas the Twins would be buying high on Gray, the opposite is true of Archer. Pittsburgh gave up big prospect talent to acquire him from Tampa in July of 2018, and the move has been nothing short of disastrous for them. Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows, whom the Pirates gave up in the swap, are emerging as young stars for the Rays. Archer has been sub-mediocre for Pittsburgh. A cautionary tale for a team like the Twins, to be sure. But Archer's still got some game in him, provided he can get past the shoulder inflammation that shut him down in September. At 31, he's far from ancient. He still brings heat in the mid-90s regularly, with a dirty slider, and struck out 27% of the batters he faced in 2019. (Michael Pineda led Twins starters at 23%.) I'd be curious to see what Wes Johnson and Company could do with him. Much like Gray, Archer has a very appealing contract, with two years of optional control at below-market rates. Unlike Gray, he likely wouldn't cost one of Minnesota's most coveted prospects. You'll have to do enough to entice Pittsburgh, naturally, but coming off a last-place finish the Pirates should be open-minded. Clayton Kershaw, LHP Team: Dodgers 2019 Stats: 178.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 Contract Status: Signed through 2021 ($31M/yr) Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Okay. This one may seem like a reach. A healthy Clayton Kershaw has an argument as the best pitcher in the game, and maybe in modern history. He's already a Hall of Fame lock at age 31. And the championship-thirsty Dodgers have him under control for another two years. Would Los Angeles even dream of listening on this legendary southpaw? Maybe not. Probably not. But hear me out. The Dodgers have one sole aspiration that overrides all else: winning a World Series. The franchise hasn't hoisted a trophy since the Kirk Gibson Series in 1988. It's not for a lack of spending or trying. They've gone to the playoffs seven straight years, and continually come up empty in their quest. Despite the unparalleled excellence of Kershaw over this entire span, they just keep on falling short. And as weird as it is to say for an eight-time All-Star, three-time Cy Young winner, former MVP, etc.: Kershaw has himself been somewhat culpable. His body hasn't held up of late, as he's missed time in each of the past four seasons (albeit never hugely significant time). More pertinently, he has failed to match his regular-season dominance in October, and most recently he gave up back-to-back homers in the most crucial of Game 5 spots to effectively punch LA's ticket for an early exit in the NLDS. No one is gonna be fooled by this unfortunate blip, or by Kershaw's "career-worst" season (quotes added to emphasize the relativity of this statement), into thinking he's anything less than a premier starting pitcher in the game. The cost to acquire him would be off-the-charts – we're probably talking Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, as a starting point. But, I dunno. if you're the Dodgers, and you have a chance to make that deal while reinvesting Kershaw's salary into signing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg... don't you do it? And if you're the Twins, ready to push your chips in, confident in your ability to develop more future stars... don't you do it? Kershaw is a legend in Los Angeles. Rightfully so. But the city's faith in him has to be at an all-time low right now. And the Dodgers are primed for a big shakeup of some sort this winter. They've been attempting to ride Kershaw to a championship unsuccessfully for a decade, and now might represent their last chance to recoup maximum value in a trade before he returns to free agency. The Twins would need to be supremely confident in Kershaw's ability to sustain ace-like performance, and keep his chronic back issues at bay. But if so, and the Dodgers are actually open to such an idea, this is an opportunity you can't pass up. Right? Share your thoughts in the comments and keep the discussion going by sharing your favorite outside-the-box pitching trade targets for the Twins. Why might they be available? What would it realistically take to acquire them? It's a good way to warm ourselves up for the 2020 Offseason Handbook, which those who preorder will receive this week!
  18. We'll get you squared away. I just sent you a DM.
  19. Weird. If it happens again, do you wanna take a screenshot of what you're seeing and send me a direct message? We'll get it figured out for ya. Thanks!
  20. We all know the quest for pitching is storyline 1a, 1b, and 1c this offseason. But the Twins also need to think about who's going to be receiving from all these hurlers, new and returning. With Jason Castro hitting free agency, and little certainty behind him in the system, catcher is definitely the next-biggest narrative after the arms race. For the soon-to-be-released 2020 Offseason Handbook, we enlisted Dan Hayes of The Athletic to give this nuanced subject the proper treatment.When The Athletic venture was first announced a few years back, I was excited to the core. Their model just made so much sense to me – subscription-based premium content, from destination writers. It was exactly where I felt sports journalism needed to go. I know all too well the fickleness of ad-based revenues, and the painful trade-offs that must be made in terms of user experience to actually monetize it. This was the future. Beyond the hope it gave me for digital sportswriting, The Athletic's advent also enthused me for a more basic reason: Twins coverage was going to get a major jolt of energy. As big-name hires popped up for various local beats, I waited eagerly to see who would be tabbed for the Twins, envisioning all sorts of fun possibilities. When the news finally came, I gotta admit: I was nonplussed. Who is this Dan Hayes guy? I've never heard of him. He's from Chicago? He spent a half-decade covering the friggin WHITE SOX?! I dunno about this... Fortunately, my initial reservations proved to be laughably misplaced. Dan soon became a regular must-read for me. He covers stories the other mainstream outlets miss (an aspiration that basically willed Twins Daily into existence), and he's a tremendous writer, bringing an excellent mix of reporting, analysis, and wit. Those strengths are fully on display in his feature for the Handbook, entitled "How Rest, Recovery and Rocco Won Over Mitch Garver." The lengthy piece features viewpoints from Garver, Rocco Baldelli and Thad Levine, and explores the very deliberate handling of a 2019 catching corps that set the major-league record for home runs. Here's a quick excerpt from his story: The third-year catcher’s showing vaulted Garver past Jason Castro this season in the team’s catching hierarchy. Yet even as the Twins are now faced with a decision on whether or not to bring back Castro, who is headed to free agency, Garver is clear about where he stands – he either wants Castro back or someone else competent enough to share the catching workload. “There were times throughout the season where you were like, 'Man, I kind of want to play right now,’” Garver said. “I feel good whether I'm hot with the bat or we're winning a bunch of games and we're on a roll. Those are the days you want to play more. But when you get to the end of the season, you realize how appreciative you were of that extra rest and being able to feel good when it got toward the end of the season.” Rocco’s rest and recovery model isn’t going anywhere. In the full Handbook, you'll learn much more about the strategic thinking behind this model, and how it affects the coming winter's decision-making equation. It's a great sampling of what Dan Hayes brings to the table. I subscribed to The Athletic shortly after he came aboard and haven't regretted it since; that investment feels all the sounder now that our guy Aaron Gleeman has joined him on staff. If you can spare the monthly six bucks, I highly recommend it. Unsolicited plug aside, we really appreciate Dan lending his skills for this product, and can't wait for you to get the full scoop. Preorder your digital copy now and you'll receive it early. Click here to view the article
  21. When The Athletic venture was first announced a few years back, I was excited to the core. Their model just made so much sense to me – subscription-based premium content, from destination writers. It was exactly where I felt sports journalism needed to go. I know all too well the fickleness of ad-based revenues, and the painful trade-offs that must be made in terms of user experience to actually monetize it. This was the future. Beyond the hope it gave me for digital sportswriting, The Athletic's advent also enthused me for a more basic reason: Twins coverage was going to get a major jolt of energy. As big-name hires popped up for various local beats, I waited eagerly to see who would be tabbed for the Twins, envisioning all sorts of fun possibilities. When the news finally came, I gotta admit: I was nonplussed. Who is this Dan Hayes guy? I've never heard of him. He's from Chicago? He spent a half-decade covering the friggin WHITE SOX?! I dunno about this... Fortunately, my initial reservations proved to be laughably misplaced. Dan soon became a regular must-read for me. He covers stories the other mainstream outlets miss (an aspiration that basically willed Twins Daily into existence), and he's a tremendous writer, bringing an excellent mix of reporting, analysis, and wit. Those strengths are fully on display in his feature for the Handbook, entitled "How Rest, Recovery and Rocco Won Over Mitch Garver." The lengthy piece features viewpoints from Garver, Rocco Baldelli and Thad Levine, and explores the very deliberate handling of a 2019 catching corps that set the major-league record for home runs. Here's a quick excerpt from his story: The third-year catcher’s showing vaulted Garver past Jason Castro this season in the team’s catching hierarchy. Yet even as the Twins are now faced with a decision on whether or not to bring back Castro, who is headed to free agency, Garver is clear about where he stands – he either wants Castro back or someone else competent enough to share the catching workload. “There were times throughout the season where you were like, 'Man, I kind of want to play right now,’” Garver said. “I feel good whether I'm hot with the bat or we're winning a bunch of games and we're on a roll. Those are the days you want to play more. But when you get to the end of the season, you realize how appreciative you were of that extra rest and being able to feel good when it got toward the end of the season.” Rocco’s rest and recovery model isn’t going anywhere. In the full Handbook, you'll learn much more about the strategic thinking behind this model, and how it affects the coming winter's decision-making equation. It's a great sampling of what Dan Hayes brings to the table. I subscribed to The Athletic shortly after he came aboard and haven't regretted it since; that investment feels all the sounder now that our guy Aaron Gleeman has joined him on staff. If you can spare the monthly six bucks, I highly recommend it. Unsolicited plug aside, we really appreciate Dan lending his skills for this product, and can't wait for you to get the full scoop. Preorder your digital copy now and you'll receive it early.
  22. Twins Daily was conceived, above all, as a platform to elevate Twins fan/writing communities. In line with this vision, we try to infuse our annual flagship product – the Offseason Handbook – with a variety of new and exciting voices. Today we're pleased to announce our foreword contributor for the 2020 Offseason Handbook: R.T. Rybak!First, a little background on Mr. Rybak. Those in the Twin Cities are likely familiar with the name at least, because he spent 12 years as mayor of Minneapolis, from 2002 through 2013. To say he was popular among his constituents would be an understatement – Rybak was elected in 2001 by the widest margin of victory in the city's history, and he won reelection twice in resounding fashion. While "three-term mayor" is quite the distinction, R.T. might characterize himself as a Twins fan first and foremost. He is an unabashed DIEHARD – exactly the type of passionate baseball nut this site was built for. Those of us who follow him on Twitter have come to cherish his whimsical postgame poetry. Examples below: We at Twins Daily are grateful and humbled to say that R.T. is also an openly avid fan of our site and community. (If you came to our Game 1 ALDS viewing party at Brother's, you might've spotted him and said hi.) When we asked if he might have interest in contributing to this year's Handbook, he was eager to step up to the plate. R.T. came through with a longform of his classic Twins balladry, this one serving to set up the many winter story lines as foreword for the Handbook. He knocks it out of the park. Below, as a sampler, the first three stanzas: If winter dreams have you pining For some new Twin-for-hire A free agent to help Beat the Yankee Empire Take the day off of work Stay home, play hooky Imagine managing the Twins Like Rocco, no longer a rookie Know offseason moves Have supporters and critics Get it right with this Handbook Filled with stats and analytics .... This is merely a small taste of what you'll find at the outset of the 2020 Offseason Handbook, now available for digital preorder! As R.T. alludes, we'll be covering all the moves and decisions that lie ahead in this critical offseason, with plenty of supporting stats and analytics. Secure your digital copy now, and you'll get it before it's officially available to the public (ETA is around the conclusion of the World Series). You can name your price but the minimum for preorders is $10. After the official release there will be no minimum. Click here to view the article
  23. First, a little background on Mr. Rybak. Those in the Twin Cities are likely familiar with the name at least, because he spent 12 years as mayor of Minneapolis, from 2002 through 2013. To say he was popular among his constituents would be an understatement – Rybak was elected in 2001 by the widest margin of victory in the city's history, and he won reelection twice in resounding fashion. While "three-term mayor" is quite the distinction, R.T. might characterize himself as a Twins fan first and foremost. He is an unabashed DIEHARD – exactly the type of passionate baseball nut this site was built for. Those of us who follow him on Twitter have come to cherish his whimsical postgame poetry. Examples below: https://twitter.com/R_T_Rybak/status/1175909505265295360 https://twitter.com/R_T_Rybak/status/1177028453171748864 https://twitter.com/R_T_Rybak/status/1177788309268942849 We at Twins Daily are grateful and humbled to say that R.T. is also an openly avid fan of our site and community. (If you came to our Game 1 ALDS viewing party at Brother's, you might've spotted him and said hi.) When we asked if he might have interest in contributing to this year's Handbook, he was eager to step up to the plate. R.T. came through with a longform of his classic Twins balladry, this one serving to set up the many winter story lines as foreword for the Handbook. He knocks it out of the park. Below, as a sampler, the first three stanzas: If winter dreams have you pining For some new Twin-for-hire A free agent to help Beat the Yankee Empire Take the day off of work Stay home, play hooky Imagine managing the Twins Like Rocco, no longer a rookie Know offseason moves Have supporters and critics Get it right with this Handbook Filled with stats and analytics .... This is merely a small taste of what you'll find at the outset of the 2020 Offseason Handbook, now available for digital preorder! As R.T. alludes, we'll be covering all the moves and decisions that lie ahead in this critical offseason, with plenty of supporting stats and analytics. Secure your digital copy now, and you'll get it before it's officially available to the public (ETA is around the conclusion of the World Series). You can name your price but the minimum for preorders is $10. After the official release there will be no minimum.
  24. Now that the Yankees have been vanquished, soothing the postseason angst of the pettiest among us (myself included), we Twins fans can fully turn our attention to the coming offseason. Once the World Series gets sorted out, Twins Daily will be ready to deliver you the 2020 Offseason Handbook, and you can be among the first to dive in by preordering your digital copy now.This week, we'll be offering up a few details and excerpts from this year's Handbook to whet your appetite. We'll also be unveiling our lineup of featured guest writers, starting tomorrow. But today, we're giving you the full setup. The image above shows the introduction to the Twins Daily 2020 Offseason Handbook, and you can also find the full text below. This is but one page of many in what will surely be a robust read (last year's edition checked in at 72 pages), but it should give you a clear idea of the general angle and outstanding visuals you can expect. ~~~ Foot, Meet Throat In January of 2019, at TwinsFest, general manager Thad Levine grabbed a microphone before an assembled crowd of fans and addressed the notion of signing top-tier free agents in the class of Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. "My view is, the best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide open,” Levine asserted. "Not when you’ve got your fingers underneath the window and you’re trying to jam the window open. I want to do it when we’re projected to win the Central and we’re ready to put our foot on someone’s throat." Well... here we are. The window is wide open, no doubt, as the Twins will be favored by most to win the division again in 2020. They already have a foot on payroll-conscious Cleveland's throat. The question, following another crushing postseason sweep at the hands of the Yankees, is how they can use their other foot to take the next step. As you'll learn in the coming pages, the front office enters this offseason with a wealth of resources at its disposal, with which to pursue a bevy of appealing options on the free agent and trade markets. As you proceed through this Handbook, you'll get a full lay of the land, along with analysis and breakdowns from a variety of voices in the local writing community (and even a former three-time Twins All-Star). This is your definitive guide. Dig in and craft your own blueprint for avenging the ALDS defeat and bringing a championship back to Minnesota. Click here to view the article
  25. This week, we'll be offering up a few details and excerpts from this year's Handbook to whet your appetite. We'll also be unveiling our lineup of featured guest writers, starting tomorrow. But today, we're giving you the full setup. The image above shows the introduction to the Twins Daily 2020 Offseason Handbook, and you can also find the full text below. This is but one page of many in what will surely be a robust read (last year's edition checked in at 72 pages), but it should give you a clear idea of the general angle and outstanding visuals you can expect. ~~~ Foot, Meet Throat In January of 2019, at TwinsFest, general manager Thad Levine grabbed a microphone before an assembled crowd of fans and addressed the notion of signing top-tier free agents in the class of Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. "My view is, the best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide open,” Levine asserted. "Not when you’ve got your fingers underneath the window and you’re trying to jam the window open. I want to do it when we’re projected to win the Central and we’re ready to put our foot on someone’s throat." Well... here we are. The window is wide open, no doubt, as the Twins will be favored by most to win the division again in 2020. They already have a foot on payroll-conscious Cleveland's throat. The question, following another crushing postseason sweep at the hands of the Yankees, is how they can use their other foot to take the next step. As you'll learn in the coming pages, the front office enters this offseason with a wealth of resources at its disposal, with which to pursue a bevy of appealing options on the free agent and trade markets. As you proceed through this Handbook, you'll get a full lay of the land, along with analysis and breakdowns from a variety of voices in the local writing community (and even a former three-time Twins All-Star). This is your definitive guide. Dig in and craft your own blueprint for avenging the ALDS defeat and bringing a championship back to Minnesota.
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