Nick Nelson

In 2011, the film adaptation of Moneyball hit theaters, bringing Michael Lewis's non-fiction work to the big screen. Near the end of the movie, Red Sox owner John Henry invites Billy Beane to Fenway Park for a conversation. Beane had freshly guided small-market Oakland through back-to-back 100-win seasons, overcoming a limited budget by championing innovative strategies and cutting-edge analytics. His success caught the attention of one of baseball's most storied and respected franchises. When Henry (portrayed by Arliss Howard) and Beane (Brad Pitt) sit down to chat, Henry says he heard about Beane receiving an extension offer from A's ownership. "So why did you return my call?" he asks. "Because it's the Red Sox," Beane replies matter-of-factly. Ultimately, Beane turned down a lucrative $12.5 million offer from Boston to stick with Oakland, where he remains today. But the temptation was evident and understandable. You don't have to look hard to find parallels between the Athletics front office of that era, and the current Twins regime. Since taking over a club that had freshly lost 103 games, and hadn't reached the playoffs in six years, Derek Falvey has overseen a complete turnaround for the Twins, who are on the verge of their second postseason berth in three years since Falvey's arrival. Falvey isn't quite working with the budgetary constraints of the A's circa Y2K, but he has brought sophistication to a dated baseball operation, ushering in a rapid analytical awakening. Suddenly, the Twins find themselves mentioned among baseball's most enlightened franchises. As Matthew Trueblood wrote at Baseball Prospectus on Monday: "Most importantly, what the Red Sox need isn't a technological catch-up or an extra fleet of interns in research and development. What they need is, in all likelihood, a top-level change in philosophy, one that aligns them with the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Rays, Twins, and Diamondbacks, who now represent the state of the art." Seeing the Twins mentioned alongside the game's most respected front offices feels surreal, but here we are. Falvey's vision has quickly come to fruition and he – along with his handpicked GM Thad Levine – has this franchise as geared for long-term success as any in baseball. It's no secret that I've long been a fan of the way these guys operate, and the rest of the league has quickly taken notice as well. Unsurprisingly, Minnesota's Chief Baseball Officer has been mentioned as a candidate for the Boston GM vacancy by numerous outlets, including the Boston Globe. Still only 36 years old, Falvey could be viewed as a long-term fixture atop the Red Sox, in the same way Henry fancied Beane (who was 40 back in 2002). So let's just assume that the Sox come calling. How tempted would Falvey be? There are a few things to keep in mind. Falvey grew up in Lynn, MA – roughly 30 minutes from Fenway Park. The Red Sox GM gig brings with it almost unlimited resources. It also brings a level of prestige nearly unmatched in the profession. Boston will undoubtedly be able to dangle a significant raise if they so choose. These are serious perks. Of course, they also will be weighed against some very real factors in Minnesota's favor. For example: Falvey and his family have planted roots here. He's building something special, and is likely only getting started. The Boston job, while glamorous, brings far more scrutiny and stress. It also doesn't necessarily offer much job security. (Dombrowski was fired less than one year after winning a World Series!) Will Falvey make the same move as Beane 17 years ago, and say "Thanks, but no thanks"? I don't know, but I do feel quite confident the Red Sox will at least inquire. He's clearly a rising young star among MLB's executives right now. With luxury tax become a central consideration for even the biggest of spenders, a GM who can stretch a dollar, dig up hidden values, and bolster development is in high demand. If Boston misses on Falvey, they could conceivably turn their attention to Levine, who deserves his own share of credit for the spiffy roster construction in Minnesota. In his case, unlike Falvey's, it'd be a clear step up in terms of role – becoming the No. 1 guy. But on that note, I guess the Twins are in better position than most in this regard, given that they have a two-headed monster atop their front office depth chart. Both Falvey and Levine seem capable of handling the head job solo. Maybe that would make one of them more amenable to leaving. Maybe it'd make the Twins more at peace with such a defection. All I know is that Falvey and Levine appear to have great chemistry, and they've jointly built a hell of a roster in Minnesota, as well as a hell of a baseball ops department. Personally speaking, I've never had more trust in the people running this team in my life than I do right now. So thinking about a big-market shark coming in and pilfering away from what is currently the Twins' foremost competitive advantage? Well, to borrow another line from Moneyball... "It's incredibly hard."

From the big-picture view, one should feel very pleased with the franchise's current state of affairs. This year has undeniably been a success, and for those who suggest that a quick demise in the playoffs would change that, I hope you know how silly it sounds. The Twins have already won more games than in any of the past eight seasons. They set the major-league home run record in five months. Minnesota's lineup has put forth a combination of good, great, and historically unprecedented performances. The new coaching staff has been spectacular by any result-based measure, and the front office that assembled it is now routinely mentioned among the game's most sophisticated and advanced. In the grand scheme, this has been a phenomenal season and there's no doubt we'll remember it for years to come. But here, with the postseason only weeks away, it's also completely fair for fans to be thinking about the small picture. The right here and right now. Minnesota has put itself in tremendous position with 88 wins and a 5.5 game division lead here on September 9th, but there are a number of negative harbingers clouding the skies at exactly the wrong time. The Twins have won two series against teams with .500+ records since the end of June, with one of those coming against a fading Boston team on the brink of elimination. The Michael Pineda suspension is obviously a monumental gut-punch, and leaves the rotation filled with starters who've failed to build up much confidence of late. A medley of key injuries have befallen the position-player core. Things are undeniably trending in a bad direction. With that said, here are nine things you should be feeling good about as we gear up for the final three weeks of the schedule. 1. The Twins have two All-Star starting pitchers. It hardly seems relevant right now given the way they (especially Jose Berrios) have pitched since, but he and Jake Odorizzi were among the league's best pitchers over the first three months of the season. And Odorizzi has quietly settled back into a hell of a groove, with a 3.05 ERA and only two home runs allowed over his past eight starts. From mid-June into July, Odorizzi was out of sorts, giving up loads of homers and generally struggling to get through five innings. But in recent weeks he's returned to form, and Saturday's effort against Cleveland was one of his finest all year. The ups and downs serve as a reminder of the roller-coaster nature of MLB's marathon season. Which is all the more reason we shouldn't give up on Berrios. He's not so far removed from looking like a frontline ace. This seems a good time to mention that in 2018, Berrios went through a similar (albeit less extreme) swoon in the latter half of the summer, but rebounded with a 3.28 ERA and one homer allowed in his final four starts, allowing a .174/.282/.221 slash line. In his final start, he tossed seven innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts against the White Sox. Finally, while losing Pineda at this point understandably feels like a grave development, let us not forget that the Twins sprinted to their amazing start in April and May with him as the least trusted member of the rotation. They've shown they can do it without him. 2. The bullpen is long and strong. The present shortcomings of the rotation are made somewhat more palatable by the strength of the bullpen in recent weeks. Yeah, the whole Sam Dyson fiasco sucks, but in spite of it, Minnesota relievers hold the following AL ranks since the trade deadline: 2nd in FIP (3.90) 2nd in WAR (5.8) 2nd in HR/9 (1.19) 3rd in xFIP (4.22) 4th in K/BB (3.26) 5th in SIERA (4.21) Taylor Rogers is elite, and is – crucially – getting plenty of rest here in the late stretch of the season. Trevor May is pitching as well as he ever has. Sergio Romo provides a vital veteran infusion. Tyler Duffey has quietly emerged. Brusdar Graterol is here, representing an extremely intriguing wild-card factor. As much as people want to fret about the rotation, we should all recognize the bullpen's astounding (and much-needed) turnaround. We've seen how bullpen depth can come into play during recent playoff runs. The Twins outshine several other playoff-bound clubs in this regard. 3. Offensive depth is why they're here. You don't set MLB records for total home runs, and number of players with 20+ home runs, without widespread contributions, and that's just what the Twins have gotten. While we will know more soon, it seems likely the Twins will have to proceed without the totality of Byron Buxton's impact (and maybe with none of it). Max Kepler is dealing with a worrisome shoulder situation. Nelson Cruz's wrist has begun barking again. Marwin Gonzalez has been sidelined for some time with an abdominal issue. Jake Cave and Miguel Sano are banged up too. It's a grim situation in the trainer's room right now, but the Twins still have an awful lot of weapons available even when they're shorthanded. And there is a glimmer of good news on the health front... 4. They'll likely have the luxury of resting their ailing players down the stretch. It would've been nice if the Twins took care of business against Cleveland at Target Field, rather than dropping five of seven in the last two series, to effectively put this thing out of reach. We're not quite there yet. Still, a magic number of 14 with 19 games left to play puts the Twins firmly in the driver's seat, and they're one good week away from being able to essentially coast, with a cakewalk schedule against bottom-dwellers in their final 13 games. Rest isn't a cure-all, but it sure helps, and is probably the only potential remedy for ailments like Kepler's sore (but not structurally damaged!) shoulder, or Cruz's wrist, or Sano's back. Thanks to their depth and the diminishing urgency to win, the Twins should be able to practice a lot of caution in the twilight of the season. 5. Kyle Gibson is capable of dominance. The main outcome of Pineda's suspension is that it significantly elevates the importance of Gibson, who's currently sidelined while dealing with his own medical issue. Berrios and Odorizzi were going to slot among the team's top three playoff starters even with Big Mike around. Now, Gibson will likely step back into that picture. I can presume, from experience, that this item will be the most controversial of the nine listed here. For whatever reason, many Twins fans seem to harbor an inordinate level of resentment toward the right-hander, who has toiled in this organization for a decade and has finally realized the quality of his stuff after working very hard to do so. Yes, Gibson's been rough lately, and inconsistent for much of the season. But this isn't a man wilting mentally in the moment; it's a guy dealing with some truly terrible health-related misfortune. He opened his season coming off an E. coli battle and, as we've now learned, he has been battling ulcerative colitis throughout the summer. This daunting affliction has clearly affected his weight and strength, most recently causing a jarring drop in velocity, and so to me it's impressive he has still managed to post the seventh-highest swinging strike rate among AL starters while vaulting his K-rate to a new career high. That speaks to the underlying quality of his raw stuff, which likely ranks as the best in the rotation. When Gibson is truly on his game he can overpower a good lineup. I don't know if we'll see that side of him again this year, in light of the circumstances, but at least the problem has been acknowledged and the team is taking some steps to try and get him right. 6. Eddie Rosario is lurking. It's been a frustrating year for Rosario. He's lost all semblance of plate discipline and as a result he's become a fairly easy out amidst a lineup that offers few. He just keeps swinging more and more frequently out of the zone, and his production has steadily declined as a result. But let us not forget: when he's locked in, there might not be anyone more dangerous. He loves big stages and big moments; the three-run blast at Yankee Stadium in the 2017 Wild Card Game lingers as an unforgettable highlight in a mostly forgettable game. He's still got time to turn it on and find his zone again. 7. The postseason is an unpredictable beast. I know it's easy for Twins fans to feel a sense of dread about the playoffs, given the complete lack of success this franchise has experienced in October since 1991. As unfavorable developments stack up, it can be tempting to feel like failure is inevitable in an ALDS tilt against the Astros or Yankees. But past letdowns against New York are now irrelevant. They just are. Houston's intimidating rotation guarantees nothing. The Twins are, at the end of the day, a tremendous team, poised to approach or surpass 100 wins with one of the greatest offenses in MLB history. They've shown resilience and tenacity against both the Yankees and Astros this year. This isn't a piranha pack bringing knives to a gunfight. Even if in a weakened state, the Twins are going to have a shot in a short postseason series. 8. No matter what happens, the playoffs are awesome! I've heard people say they'd rather not make the playoffs than get swept out in the first round again. It's an amazing sentiment to me. I get such a deep sense of jealousy when watching postseason action from the outside – a constant reality over the past eight years. This team deserves a spot on the national pedestal, and all the attention and recognition that comes with it. Win or lose, the experience will be important for a young core that figures to mostly stick together for a long time. Which brings me to my final point. 9. This is only the beginning. It's fair to say this is a unique opportunity for the Twins. You can't assume they'll be in this kind of position again next year, or the year after. But from that ol' big-picture view, they really are just getting started. Many key players are under control through multiple prime years to come. Their minor-league system ranks among the league's best. Rocco Baldelli might win Manager of the Year as a rookie skipper, while his first-year pitching coach Wes Johnson already has a solid case as the most impactful in the game. In their third year, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put forth one of the best teams in franchise history, all while focusing on long-term contention above all. Based on what we've seen, I have immense faith in their ability to build around this core and develop players effectively. The future is bright for the Minnesota Twins, no matter what happens in the coming month. That doesn't mean you can't or shouldn't feel concerned about the small-picture, and disheartened by this recent string of events. But as I was heartily reminded over the weekend, perspective is important. Taking a step back, Twins fans should be feeling awfully good about where things stand, and even in the short-term, there's more reason for optimism than it may presently seem amidst a storm of bad news.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/26 through Sun, 9/1 *** Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall: 84-52) Run Differential Last Week: +23 (Overall: +174) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.5 GA) Willians Watch: HE'S BACK! Starting next season, September rosters will increase to 28. So for now, the Twins are enjoying their last year of unencumbered freedom by calling up a full complement of reinforcements for the final month. Among the expected arrivals are a number of familiar pitchers: Zack Littell, Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer. One of those pitchers (probably Smeltzer) will be at least temporarily replacing Kyle Gibson in the rotation, as he was placed on the shelf with ulcerative colitis – apparently it's been bothering him for most of the season, which... ouch. Poor guy. The biggest name in the weekend's roster influx is Brusdar Graterol, Minnesota's top pitching prospect who joins much more as an impact infusion than simply a depth plug. He debuted on Sunday, tossing a scoreless ninth with a strikeout while giving up two weakly hit singles. As advertised, Graterol flashed 100 on the radar gun, and he impressed with his location on a few perfectly placed burners on the edges of the zone. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1168261641005236224 Next in line for his MLB debut is Ian Miller, the speedy outfielder acquired from Seattle last month. The 27-year-old will serve a very specific purpose: wheels on demand. He had 35 steals on 42 attempts in Triple-A this year and is 243-for-294 in seven minor-league seasons. Definitely a good piece to have, although the Twins are even happier to have their centerpiece blazer back. Byron Buxton was activated on Sunday, after having his rehab paused early last week when he felt pain in his shoulder while swinging. He appeared as a defensive replacement late in his first game back. It sounds like he's still not going to be available to hit for the time being, but he can run and play defense so that's positive news. LaMonte Wade Jr., himself activated from a lengthy IL stint, also joins to bolster outfield depth and entered Sunday's game. But... I've buried the lede here! Willians Astudillo has finally returned after hitting .325/.372/.500 in nine games at Triple-A. He started at first base on Sunday in his first game back, finishing 1-for-2 with a pair of HBPs. HIGHLIGHTS How. About. This. Offense. By launching 15 more bombas last week, the Twins blasted past the major-league record for home runs in a season, set by the 2018 Yankees at 267. Multiple other teams will eclipse that mark this year, but the Twins got there first. It's an amazing feat on its own, and especially when you consider they accomplished it before the calendar flipped to September. That wasn't the only notable slugging record to fall. On Saturday in Detroit, the Twins became the first team in MLB history to have eight different players reach 20 home runs, when Jorge Polanco crossed the milestone on a two-run jack. Back in January I wrote about how, as recently as 2013, the Twins didn't have a SINGLE PLAYER hit 20 home runs. It was clear at the time that this lineup would be fundamentally different from those of the Terry Ryan era. But no one could foreseen a turnaround this drastic. https://twitter.com/morsecode/status/1167970886189797376 Contributing to last week's bash-fest, which saw the lineup churn out 49 runs in six games and carry the team to a 5-1 record despite mostly subpar work from the rotation, were a combination of usual suspects and surprise faces. Let's run through some of the top producers in another monster week for the Bomba Squad: Nelson Cruz: He just continues to rake, and was 12-for-25 last week with a homer and eight RBIs. Despite the ruptured tendon in his wrist, the 39-year-old is starting everyday and producing relentlessly. He's even showing excellent vision at the plate, with three walks against four strikeouts last week. Jonathan Schoop: His late-season emergence is very intriguing. For much of the summer his undeniably strong production has been inflated by garbage-time feasting. But no one could say such a thing about last week, arguably his best of the year. Schoop went 7-for-17, with his three home runs including a key early bomb against Lucas Giolito and a tone-setting three-run shot the following day. Schoop still probably doesn't find his way into an optimal, healthy Twins lineup right now, but he's a great piece to have on hand. C.J. Cron: It sure seems like his thumb is feeling better. The first baseman struggled through a couple months while acknowledging his inflammation, going on the shelf two separate times. But of late he's been finding his stroke. Last week he put on a power-hitting clinic with two homers and three doubles among his seven hits. In five starts, he drove in seven runs. Polanco: Another (relative) recent laggard whose bat is once again heating up. The shortstop delivered a nonstop assault at the plate, going 12-for-24 to nudge his batting average back over .300. Max Kepler: He missed time while nursing a bruised knee but was outstanding while on the field, going 4-for-12 with a homer and two doubles. Mitch Garver: He hit the record-breaking home run on Saturday night, one of two on the day and three on the week for the best power-hitting catcher in franchise history. It still feels very weird and wonderful to write those words. Jake Cave: He saw his batting average – which flirted with .500 in the first three weeks of August – come down to earth a bit as he finished 5-for-23 on the week. But Cave mixed in two homers and a double, as well as a big early two-run single on Sunday. In a game that epitomized the all-around contribution that serves as trademark for this historically potent offense, the Twins put up 10 runs on 16 hits in Chicago on Thursday to clinch a sweep despite the absences of banged-up Sano, Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez, and Buxton. Garver was also on the bench. I thought Cave's quote after the game said it all: https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1167201547027177472 While the offense kept surging, the bullpen continued to assert itself as a strength for the Twins. On the week, relievers combined for 22 1/3 innings, allowing just four earned runs (1.61 ERA) with a 26-to-1 (!) K/BB ratio. Just outstanding work. Particular standouts included Trevor May, who struck out eight over three scoreless innings, and Tyler Duffey, who turned in two shutout frames with four strikeouts. These two have quietly turned into overpowering late-inning threats. In August, May allowed just one run in 12 appearances while registering an 18% swinging strike rate. Duffey didn't allow a single run in his 13 appearances while holding opponents to a .167 average. On top of the strong performances, the Twins were able to once again reserve Taylor Rogers, who pitched just once all week, just as he did the week prior. Getting their bullpen ace ample rest at this point of the season is a victory in itself. LOWLIGHTS As fantastically as the Twins have been playing, it becomes slightly harder to enjoy when Jose Berrios – perhaps the team's single most important player as far as postseason advancement is concerned – continues to bottom out. His latest turn counted as an improvement, as he allowed three runs over six innings to qualify for the lowest threshold of a "quality start," but the right-hander was still a far cry from ace form. His velocity continues to sputter. His once-sharp command keeps faltering (he was charged with FOUR wild pitches in the start – one more than he had all season coming in). And once again the gas just seemed to run out midway through; Berrios got through four scoreless frames before giving up three runs in the fifth and sixth. All this against a very weak White Sox offense. Alas, Berrios now must attempt to put a very ugly month behind him – he posted a 7.57 ERA in five August starts as opponents hit .333/.395/.556 – and turn the page in September. Phenomenal as their offense is, the Twins have little hope of winning a playoff series if they don't have a multiple starters who can keep another elite lineup in check. Right now, Berrios doesn't look capable. He's had his hands full with some of the league's worst offenses. That's also true for Gibson, who at one point looked like a credible option to start playoff game No. 2 behind Berrios. For a second straight time on Friday, Gibson faced the AL's worst offense, and for a second straight time the Tigers had his number. This time around, Gibson allowed four runs on 10 hits while laboring through five innings on 107 pitches. Making the long, plodding outing all the more frustrating is that he was pitching with a big lead, having been handed a four-run lead before he even took the mound. Much like Berrios, Gibson is experiencing a troubling decline in velocity at a troubling time. His steady emergence as a quality No. 2/3 type, which began around the middle of 2017, was fueled by all-around velo gains throughout his arsenal – perhaps the result of mechanical overhauls he implemented ahead of the '17 campaign. As the progressive velocity chart below via Brooks Baseball indicates, Gibson saw a steady ascension throughout his pitch repertoire, starting in late 2017 and carrying over all the way to the middle of 2019. But of late? Yikes. That downward dive at the right end is alarming. It is likely that the ulcerative colitis issue, which landed him on the IL Sunday, helps explain Gibson's softened edge. This is a miserable digestive tract affliction that can take a toll on one's overall health, energy, and weight. From knowing people who've dealt with it, I can say it's not always the easiest to treat. But Gibson says he hopes to return after missing just one start. The Twins are a great team. They've shown they can slug with any team in the game, and their bullpen is giving us reason to believe – especially with the arrival of Graterol. But it's just really damn hard to win against fellow great teams without high-end starting pitching, and two of Minnesota's best hopes on this front are completely out of whack with the postseason a month away. Gibson has arguably the best stuff in the rotation. (His 13.3% swinging strike rate leads all Twins starters and ranks qualified among AL starters.) Berrios is undoubtedly the best overall pitcher in the rotation. Until they find a way to get going again, it's hard to have much confidence in the team making any kind of legitimate run. TRENDING STORYLINE While their primary focus for the next month will obviously be fending off Cleveland and locking up the Central, the Twins will simultaneously be trying to establish a pitching hierarchy for the postseason. That means lining up starters for a potential ALDS, of course, but also identifying the most trustworthy arms for the middle and late innings. Given the current state of their rotation, it's very possible the team will pivot to lean heavily on relievers come October. Can Graterol make enough of an impression to warrant a roster spot for the playoffs? I think it's far from a given. Keep in mind he just turned 21 and has thrown only a handful if innings above Double-A. Can May and Duffey continue to distinguish themselves, especially against stronger competition in the next few weeks? Will Rogers look rested or rusty in the action to come after getting a lot of downtime the past couple weeks? These are the threads I'm following closely as we roll into the final month. DOWN ON THE FARM On Thursday, Trevor Larnach was named Florida State League Player of the Year, in recognition of his .316/.382/.459 slash line over 84 games in a pitcher-friendly environment where the average hitter sat at .242/.313/.353. Although the FSL shut down early last week, with Hurricane Dorian bearing down on the Sunshine State, Larnach was still playing, having been promoted to Pensacola midway through July. He celebrated the honor by launching a homer in a 3-for-5 night, and has an .830 OPS through 42 games at Double-A, with Pensacola's regular season reaching its end on Monday. As the minor-league seasons wind down, attention begins to turn fully toward the big-league roster, which is a lot more populous now than it was two days ago. LOOKING AHEAD Twins fans have been dealing with a strange medley of feelings lately. On the one hand, the Twins are setting records, racing toward their first division title in nine years, and winning a whole lotta games. They're 12-4 in their last five series. They're holding strong. On the other hand, they've won only one series against a good team in the past two months. Their rotation looks like a mess even against bottom-dwelling clubs that have all but given up. And now, the difficulty level is about to turn up by several notches. It feels like a reckoning is coming unless Minnesota can rise to the challenge. Fenway Park is an extremely difficult place to win when your pitchers are misfiring. If Berrios and Martin Perez can't turn things around quickly the Red Sox series may get ugly. Afterward, the Twins return home for a massively critical three-gamer against Cleveland, perhaps with a chance to bury the dagger. It's crunch time. MONDAY, 9/2: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Jordan Zimmermann TUESDAY, 9/3: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Rick Porcello WEDNESDAY, 9/4: TWINS @ RED SOX – TBA v. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez THURSDAY: 9/5: TWINS @ RED SOX – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Nathan Eovaldi FRIDAY, 9/6: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Adam Plutko v. RHP Michael Pineda SATURDAY, 9/7: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Aaron Civale v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SUNDAY, 9/8: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Mike Clevinger v. RHP Jose Berrios Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 131 | MIN 3, CWS 1: Bullpen Depth Proves Key In Twins Win Game 132 | MIN 8, CWS 2: Twins Sail Past White Sox for Series Win Game 133 | MIN 10, CWS 5: Break Out the Brooms on the South Side Game 134 | MIN 13, DET 5: Bats Back Up Gibson, Twins Win 6th Straight Game 135 | DET 10, MIN 7: Tigers Tally 10 Runs in Perez’s Worst Start of Season Game 136 | MIN 8, DET 3: Twins Strike Early, Beat Detroit in Brusdar Graterol's MLB Debut

In mostly bypassing the reliever free agent market (a wise enough choice, in retrospect) the Twins envisioned a bullpen whose back-end would be powered by the likes of Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Addison Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, and Fernando Romero, with other options to emerge during the course of the year. In some ways, this blueprint has come to fruition. Rogers is one of the most valuable relievers in baseball. May, outside of a few hiccups, has been a dominant force. As for those those other quality contributors developing on the fringes? We've seen plenty: Ryne Harper, Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey, and so on. But the almost total lack of impact from Reed, Hildenberger and Romero has left a sizable late-inning void that the team is struggling to fill. Like I said, you can call it the result of poor planning. Reed gave us little reason to believe he'd be an asset this year, but I can't fault the team for attempting to extract some semblance of value from their $16 million investment. (I also credit them for quickly moving on as it became apparent he wasn't up to the task.) While Hildenberger was rough in the second half last year, he had been a lights-out high-leverage fireman before. And Romero? This was the boldest and most audacious bet of them all – taking the best pitching prospect in the system, and fast-tracking him into a bullpen role where he could maximize his stuff and bolster a unit in need. But from the jump, this experiment was ill-fated. Romero looked brutal in spring training, prompting the Twins to abandon their original plan and send him to the minors. The hope was he'd acclimate, gain confidence, and join the Minnesota bullpen in short order. This didn't happen. After four appearances at Triple-A, the Twins recalled Romero. He stuck around for three weeks but looked ordinary. He went back down for a month, and returned to make a single appearance, facing the Mariners on June 13th. Romero started the eighth, gave up two hits and two walks without recording an out, and was returned to Rochester. He hasn't resurfaced since. As we near the end of August, Reed is long gone. Hildenberger is on the rehab trail (and looking promising). Romero, meanwhile, is in limbo. Over the past two months back at Triple-A, he's been totally unremarkable, posting a 4.18 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 28 innings while yielding a .261/.374/.342 slash line. To his credit he's limiting the big knocks (just one homer and six extra-base hits during this span) but his control continues to suffer, and he's not getting anywhere near the number of whiffs you look for from a big hard-thrower out of the pen. This stall-out doesn't spell doom for Romero. Twins fans know better by now than to form definitive conclusions about a talented young player who hasn't yet turned 25. But unfortunately, patience is ceasing to be a luxury the team can afford. Next spring he'll be out of options, meaning Minnesota will need to either carry him out of camp or expose him to waivers (where he wouldn't make it far, I imagine). One might say, "The reliever transition has failed, move him back to starter." Which sounds fine, except... they can't send him to Triple-A and have him readjust to that role. Does anyone feel comfortable with Romero (who by the way has never put together a complete season as a starter) in the Twins rotation right out of the gate next year? Is there any legitimate reason to think a guy who can't silence minor-league hitters as a reliever is suddenly going to be an effective MLB starter? Romero's inexplicably sluggish performance this season leaves the Twins in a tough spot when it comes to planning for 2020 and beyond. The reason it's worth talking about now is that the front office faces a pivotal decision in the week ahead. Next Sunday, rosters will expand for September call-ups. One day later, Rochester plays its final game of the regular season. Under normal circumstances (at least, normal for the past nine years), calling up Romero would essentially be a no-brainer. Development is the utmost concern, so you get him a few more opportunities and let him work with the big-league coaches, hopefully building some kind of confidence to carry forward. But now? The Twins are in a tight division race. They can't afford to give innings to someone they can't trust. And if their handling of him this year makes one thing clear, it's that they don't trust Romero to pitch important innings for them right now. Will be they be able to trust him to do so next year? They're running out of time, and chances, to inform that decision.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/19 through Sun, 8/25 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 79-51) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +151) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.5 GA) Willians Watch: 7-for-19 (.368) at AAA Willians Astudillo moved his rehab up to Triple-A, where he continued to rake with seven hits in four games. He mixed in at catcher, third base and right field for Rochester, and should be back in Minnesota by the end of next weekend. In more objectively important injury recovery news, Byron Buxton went through a full complement of baseball activities on Friday without a hitch, and opened up his own rehab stint at Cedar Rapids on Sunday. Starting at DH and batting second, Buxton went 1-for-2 with a walk and a signature hustle double. The easiest thing would be for Minnesota to wait until rosters expand next Sunday to activate Buxton. But at the same time, every game is important right now, and he's such a difference-maker. If he looks fully back up to speed early in the week, will they accelerate his timeline and maybe get him back for the Tigers series... or even for Chicago on Tuesday? (Dick Bremer astutely noted in Sunday's broadcast that Cedar Rapids is a short jaunt...) Buxton's imminent return, along with news that Cleveland has likely lost Jose Ramirez for the rest of the season with a hamate bone fracture, would seem to bode very well for the Twins. But of course, they have to go out and capitalize on the opportunities thrown their way. In a quiet week for transactions, the only other move worth mentioning is that Ryne Harper was optioned to Triple-A on Saturday, coming off another lackluster performance against the Tigers. Cody Stashak is back (Zack Littell was not an option since he went down less than 10 days ago). Harper was arguably Minnesota's second-best reliever in the first half, but hitters have gotten wise to his two-pitch mix, leading to a 7.36 ERA in August. He'll likely be back in September. HIGHLIGHTS When the Twins made their biggest offseason splash by signing Nelson Cruz, we all naturally wondered: Can he maintain the elite power production that's been his norm, or will age start taking a toll and limiting him? The answer, as it turns out: yes and yes. Cruz has already sat out more games this year than any of the past five, held back from interleague action and nagged persistently by a wrist that might've healed more cooperatively in his younger days. But when on the field, the 39-year-old has played through his barking wrist with unbelievable effectiveness – especially in his return to action last week off a stunningly short absence. Showing no ill effect from a ruptured tendon, Cruz swung the stick like a man possessed at Target Field, piling up five extra-base hits and seven RBIs amidst a 9-for-27 week hat featured some epic exit velocities. Despite losing 28 games to a pair of IL stints, the veteran slugger remains on pace to exceed 40 home runs and 100 RBIs. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1165058346598010880 Leading the offensive charge alongside Cruz last week was one now-customary name – Miguel Sano, who clubbed three homers and drove in seven across six games – and a more unexpected one: Jake Cave (or "Caveman," in the parlance of Player's Weekend). Buxton's injury opened a window of opportunity for Cave, and the outfielder has lunged through it with vigor. Aided by more regular playing time, Cave has seen his OPS climb rapidly during the month of August, and last week he was at his best, belting three home runs and two doubles while raising his seasonal slash line to .278/.378/.460, including .423/.492/.769 since the All-Star break. His monster production hasn't been coming cheaply. https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1165468085878448130 Cave is showing that his solid work as a rookie last year, and his outright dominance of Triple-A this year, were not flukes. His bat has been a boon for the Twins lineup this month with others absent or lagging. It's hard to see him getting a ton of action once Buxton returns, but he's proven himself as a solid backup and pinch-hitting option. Also enjoying nice weeks offensively: Jorge Polanco (two homers and a double), Max Kepler (two homers and two doubles, propelling him past the 35-HR milestone), and Eddie Rosario (5-for-12 against Chicago before sitting out the Detroit series with a hamstring strain). On the pitching side, the biggest positive was Trevor May continuing to build on his excellent August. Looking confident and more than capable, the right-hander logged 2 1/3 scoreless innings across three appearances, striking out two and walking none. After a very rough stretch in July, followed by a bit of a mental break courtesy of Rocco Baldelli, May has re-emerged as the powerful late-inning weapon Minnesota needs him to be. He threw 30 of 41 pitches (73%) for strikes last week. LOWLIGHTS Alarms are loudly blaring in the starting rotation. Jose Berrios continues to grind through start after start, minus the velocity, command, and consistency that fueled his All-Star first half. Facing the lowest-scoring offense in baseball on Friday, Berrios was handed an early lead, but he gave it up on a crippling grand slam in a game where he was disturbingly hittable. By the time he was lifted with one out in the sixth, he'd allowed five runs on 10 hits and two walks, pushing his ERA up to a season-high 3.53. Just a monumentally disappointing performance against a pitifully bad Tigers lineup. It marked the sixth time in nine starts since the beginning of July that Berrios was unable to complete six innings, a feat he accomplished in all but two of his 17 outings through June. Sagging velocity continues to take a toll on him, as he and his coaches continue to search for answers. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1165119200505094147 The Twins are in huge trouble if Berrios can't get back on track. This goes without saying. But it sure doesn't help that his counterparts in the rotation are so very uninspiring right now. Kyle Gibson looked similarly poor against the lowly Tigers on Saturday, coughing up 10 hits and five runs (four earned) over 5 1/3 innings. Earlier in the week he gave up five runs against a White Sox offense that isn't much better than Detroit's (third-to-last among AL teams in runs and OPS). Those same Sox touched up Jake Odorizzi for four runs on eight hits over five frames on Wednesday. The rotation contributed just one quality start all week – when Martin Perez held Detroit to two runs over six innings on Sunday. At home, in this stage of the season, against this caliber of competition, that's just not acceptable. Skeptical Twins fans and national onlookers will rightfully be dubious of the club's ability to make any real noise until they demonstrate they can suppress even pedestrian lineups. Minnesota isn't going to be able to outslug opponents on command. Pressure is mounting on Wes Johnson, Jeremy Hefner, and the Twins starting pitchers to turn things around, with the erstwhile ace Berrios ranking as the utmost priority. TRENDING STORYLINE He's not going to be a magical elixir for this rotation's afflictions, but Buxton's return will provide a big boost for the pitchers. He's arguably the most valuable defender in baseball and he changes games, although Kepler and Cave deserve credit for their solid glovework in the interim. Fans await Buck's activation with bated breath, but regardless of what happens there, the Twins will be receiving a huge influx next Sunday when rosters expand for September. The front office will almost certainly be upping bullpen depth by recalling a handful of arms that have helped them already this year – the likes of Littell, Harper, Kohl Stewart, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, Randy Dobnak, etc. Rehabbing righty Trevor Hildenberger is another likely candidate, with intriguing impact potential. Fernando Romero might not be in the plans, which is sad but fair. And then there are other potentially impactful additions that are not yet on the 40-man roster, such as the two we'll lead off with below. DOWN ON THE FARM Settling in at the highest level of the minors following their recent promotions, Brusdar Graterol and Jorge Alcala are acclimating very quickly. Graterol threw two scoreless innings in his Rochester debut on Wednesday, then followed with another clean appearance (1.1 IP) on Saturday. He already has International League hitters out of sorts (and turns 21 on Monday, so give him a shout on Twitter!). https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1164352611669204992 Alcala's first week at Triple-A also went smoothly, as he tossed four shutout innings across three appearances, striking out five and – importantly – walking only one. I mentioned here last week that the Ryan Pressly trade was starting to turn around for the Twins, with Alcala positioning himself to help the MLB bullpen and Gilberto Celestino going on a complete tear at Cedar Rapids. Well, now Celestino too has moved up a level. He joined Fort Myers on Wednesday and is 7-for-17 with four doubles through his first four games with the Miracle. Incidentally, Pressly underwent knee surgery last week and will miss the next 4-to-6 weeks for the Astros. That isn't the only midseason trade from 2018 paying dividends. Jhoan Duran was dazzling in his sixth start at Double-A on Friday, carrying a no-no into the late innings before finishing with two hits allowed and 11 strikeouts in eight shutout frames. According to the data at Baseball Reference (and this seems too absurd to be true), Duran threw 58 of 68 pitches for strikes and induced THIRTY-ONE swings and misses. Even if those numbers are stretched, it was one of the most dominating performances you'll see from a pitcher all year. Although not to the same extent as Graterol and Alcala, Duran is a sleeper candidate to help the needy big-league staff before this year is over. LOOKING AHEAD They didn't make hay at home following a 5-1 road trip, but now the Twins will travel again for a repeat of the past week's match-ups, with redemption on the mind. Last Wednesday, Chicago's Lucas Giolito threw the best start of his career against Minnesota, and on Friday Detroit's journeyman mediocrity Drew VerHagen unleashed an out-of-nowhere burst of dominance with 11 strikeouts. Can the Twins exact some revenge in hostile territory, where they've been so comfortable all year long? Cleveland, reeling from the news of Ramirez's loss and a gut-punch loss on Sunday, opens its week with the Tigers (ugh) but then travels to Tampa for a series with the Rays. Opportunity knocks once again. TUESDAY, 8/27: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Lucas Giolito WEDNESDAY, 8/28: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. LHP Ross Detwiler THURSDAY: 8/29: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Dylan Cease FRIDAY, 8/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Drew VerHagen SATURDAY, 8/31: TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Edwin Jackson SUNDAY, 9/1: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Michael Pineda v. LHP Matthew Boyd Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 125 | CWS 6, MIN 4: Twins Unable to Mount Comeback, Drop Series Opener 6-4 Game 126 | MIN 14, CWS 4: Cruz Leads Twins Offensive Explosion Game 127 | CWS 4, MIN 0: Giolito Throws Complete Game as Sox Take Series Game 128 | DET 9, MIN 6: Berríos, Bullpen Can’t Hold Baseball’s Worst Offense Game 129 | MIN 8, DET 5: Sano 3-Run Bomba, Bullpen Boost Twins to Victory Game 130 | MIN 7, DET 4: Pérez Impresses, Twins Beat Detroit for Series Win

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/12 through Sun, 8/18 *** Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall: 76-48) Run Differential Last Week: +17 (Overall: +144) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.5 GA) Willians Watch: ON THE COMEBACK TRAIL It's been nearly two months since our guy Willians Astudillo played in a game for the Twins. But finally, the Tortuga Drought is nearing its end. Astudillo opened up a minor-league rehab stint at Pensacola on Thursday, and naturally, he homered in his first at-bat. This was vintage Willians in every way; on a 1-0 count, he hammered the first pitch in the strike zone deep to left, and proceeded to jog around the bases with his poorly tucked jersey hanging out the back of his pants. In other words, it was a thing of beauty: https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1162169675796688898 Following his splashy debut, in which he also drew a walk (!), Astudillo went 4-for-8 with a homer, double and three RBIs on Friday and Saturday. Aside from the fun factor, there are more practical reasons to be excited about Astudillo's pending return. Namely, his presence as a third catcher will make it easier for Rocco Baldelli to use Mitch Garver at other positions, or to pinch-hit Garver for Jason Castro late in a game. However, while La Tortuga has wasted no time showing he's ready to go, Minnesota's roster situation may impede his arrival. It's very possible – likely, even – that the Twins will wait until rosters expand in September to recall the beloved backstop. In other roster moves for the week: The Twins activated Sam Dyson, who looked vastly better after a 10-day spell, tossing four scoreless innings while allowing just one run. Granted, that run did hurt – a game-tying solo shot in Texas – but the offense quickly picked him up. To make room for Dyson, Cody Stashak was optioned to Triple-A. Randy Dobnak headed back to Triple-A with Michael Pineda coming off the injured list on Thursday. Pineda was solid in his first start back but seemed to run out of gas quickly. He got through five innings with three runs allowed, and gave way to Devin Smeltzer who covered the final four frames. Smeltzer was quickly swapped out for Lewis Thorpe, who arrived on Friday. By rotating arms through that final spot in the bullpen, the Twins are managing to keep a fresh long-relief option available pretty much at all times, which is savvy. Ryan Eades was claimed off waivers by Baltimore. With Eades out, Minnesota's 40-man roster stands at 39, leaving one conspicuously open spot... HIGHLIGHTS When the Twins added him as an unexpected splash very late in the offseason. Marwin Gonzalez was viewed as something of an extra luxury – he fixed a problem that did not yet exist, as John aptly put it at the time. But here in the late stages of the summer, he's proving himself to be essential. With his team facing its most critical remaining stretch of the schedule, minus Byron Buxton and Nelson Cruz, Gonzalez has stepped up in a massive way. Following a big series in Cleveland the prior week, where he was 6-for-15 with several clutch hits, Gonzalez absolutely torched the Brewers and Rangers in their home parks, collecting 13 hits in 26 at-bats with nine RBIs while starting all six games. The versatile veteran came through with big hit after big hit all week, leading the charge for an offense that was on its game in averaging 7.8 runs and making up for some shortcomings on pitching and defense. Also contributing to the potent productivity: Rookie sparkplug Luis Arraez amazingly shows no signs of slowing down. You'd think that, with simple regression to the mean, his batting average and OBP would start to sink, but he just keeps taking excellent ABs and getting rewarded for them. Last week he was 6-for-22 with his third homer, two walks and two strikeouts, leaving his line for the season at .342/.412/.447. Once again, Miguel Sano's plate appearances are turning into appointment viewing. The complete contrast from two months ago, when watching him flail was more of a "peek through your fingers" experience, is incredible. Sano and his hitting coaches deserve all the credit in the world. Last week he went 7-for-23 with three home runs and seven walks – par for the course of late. He makes pitchers sweat and preys on the slightest mistakes, harkening back to his glory days as a rookie and a 2017 All-Star. If this dominant Sano is back for good, the heart of the Twins lineup is in great shape. Sano's turnaround should remind us all that baseball seasons are long, slumps come and go, and long-term track records matter. We're seeing a similar case, albeit to a lesser extent, in Jake Cave. The vitriol I was seeing from fans toward this guy, after he struggled through 100 sporadic plate appearances with the Twins, was kinda dumbfounding to me given what he did last year in Minnesota, and this year at Triple-A. Naturally he's coming around – after sitting in Milwaukee, Cave went 6-for-12 while starting three times in the Texas series, and is batting .429 in August. Patience, people! Speaking of patience, Eddie Rosario has rediscovered a semblance of it. After going from June 16th through August 11th without drawing a single unintentional walk, he drew one in each of his first three games last week. Incidentally, he also hit a pair of home runs on the week. It's true that Rosario is capable of producing with the swing-at-everything approach (he did bat .329 over the aforementioned walkless stretch) but I believe he'll be in better position long-term – especially in those high-leverage spotlights he loves so dearly – if he's forcing opposing pitchers to come to him. Even though he had a somewhat quiet week, I see the walks as a very promising sign. Finally, how about a round of applause for Ehire Adrianza? His emergence this year feels like sort of an "icing on the cake" nicety but should not be overlooked. The slick-fielding utilityman has put it all together at the plate, in a way I hoped he might last spring when the starting shortstop was suspended. Adrianza has always shown glimmers of power along with a decent plate approach, and this year at age 29 his skills have come to fruition. He only started twice last week but got into five games and made the most of every chance, going 6-for-12 with zero strikeouts. Since the start of June he's hitting .333/.410/.471. As a final note on the offense, we've gotta give props to Jonathan Schoop. He's seen his playing time fall off a cliff in the second half, both because Arraez has been unreal and because Schoop has been perpetually unable to come through in key moments. He finally bucked that trend on Friday in Texas, with a huge two-run homer late in the game that proved decisive. Schoop made two starts on the week, and has been in the lineup for only five of Minnesota's 14 August games. He's essentially a backup at this point. But he's a dang good one as far as depth and pinch-hitting options go. Hopefully he'll feel a little more confident after that redemptive moment in Arlington. Redemption was the banner headline of the week for the bullpen. We mentioned earlier Dyson's bounce back off the IL. Trevor May was also in pristine form, allowing zero hits and a walk while striking out three over two appearances. Outside of an (admittedly painful) solo homer allowed in the opener against Cleveland, May's been nearly perfect in August, allowing zero runs and only one hit with nine strikeouts and a 15% swinging strike rate. Overall, Twins relievers allowed 11 runs (9 ER) in 22 innings of work, with three of the scores coming on a single swing of the bat in Milwaukee. When Sergio Romo allowed that bomb, it was certainly a low point, but was set up by a bad defensive miscue (see below), and Romo was lights-out in his three other appearances. With Romo and Dyson in the mix, May rolling again, and Zack Littell quietly excelling (he has a 0.96 ERA in 17 appearances dating back to the start of June), this unit suddenly looks pretty strong heading into the final stretch. I'll be curious to see what Thorpe can do as the second lefty if they give him some real opportunities to assert himself. The looming presence of fellow southpaw Ryan O'Rourke, who's allowed one run over six innings at Triple-A since joining up on a minor-league contract, is also intriguing. LOWLIGHTS The defensive performance of Jorge Polanco at shortstop has been a never-ending roller coaster. At times, he goes through stretches where he looks completely serviceable, even mixing in a few flashy plays to resemble something of an asset. And then, there are the downswings where he looks totally unviable. Lately he's been in the latter mode, and it's a stark reminder of just how much sloppy play at the infield's most critical position can hurt you. Polanco committed five errors on the week, running his total to seven in the month of August after he was charged with just nine total through the first four months. All his gaffes last week came on fairly routine plays. The most egregious came when he inexplicably dropped a force-out at second base, delivered right into his glove, but the most damaging was a bounced throw to first that set up Milwaukee's go-ahead (and eventual game-winning) homer on Wednesday. If this is anything like his defensive slumps of the past, Polanco will shake this off eventually and get back to playing at an acceptable level. But his medley of miscues serves to reinforce the narrative that his days at shortstop are numbered, with a move to another position needing to come sooner rather than later. It would be nice if Polanco were offsetting his struggles in the field with impactful performance at the plate, but that hasn't been the case. He did come through with an enormously clutch three-run triple on Sunday, breaking a late tie, but the big bops have been few and far between. Dating back to the start of June he's slashing a mediocre .263/.317/.411, with deteriorating discipline. Given the aforementioned offensive rise from Adrianza, and his clear defensive edge, it'd make sense for the Twins to mix him in more at shortstop over the next few weeks. Not to send a statement to Polanco, but simply to rest up the All-Star and get him right for the stretch run. Speaking of offensive non-factors, C.J. Cron has been in that category for quite a while now. Although his two-run homer on Saturday was a nice sight, it was Cron's first long ball in two weeks, and he's been unable to contribute much in other ways. He went 3-for-19 last week and has been plain-old ineffective since returning from his latest IL stint, with a .656 OPS and zero extra-base hits outside the homers. On Sunday he came up in a crucial spot in the eighth, with runners on the corners, one out, and a contact play in motion. He grounded meekly to short and got the go-ahead run cut down at home. (Thankfully, Polanco came through two ABs later.) Cron has been scuffling for a long time while battling through an inflamed thumb that is pretty clearly still affecting him. Getting him some extra time off, along with Polanco, would seem prudent. Patrick Wozniak had a good piece here over the weekend outlining a platoon scenario for Cron. Would the Twins consider placing him on IL to make room for Astudillo until the end of August, or to make room for Cruz's impending return? While the situations surrounding Polanco and Cron are somewhat concerning, the most troubling lowlight of last week was probably Jose Berrios's start on Saturday. Coughing up seven runs (three earned) in 4 1/3 innings, he ran his ERA up to 8.44 in three August starts. One wonders if he himself could use a little breather – it'd be an affordable luxury for Minnesota with a soft spot in the schedule ahead. The Twins absolutely need him pitching like an ace into the postseason in order to have a chance. The bright side for Berrios was that his sagging velocity rebounded and he actually induced 16 swinging strikes, his highest total in two months. So maybe we just chalk this one up to hot bats in the Texas heat. TRENDING STORYLINE After working as a starter for the first six weeks, before going on the shelf with a shoulder impingement, Brusdar Graterol has been working in relief since his return. On Wednesday, in his second appearance back for Pensacola, he entered in the eighth and picked up the final four outs, notching the save in a 9-7 victory. He followed on Saturday with two perfect relief frames for the Blue Wahoos, mixing in a strikeout with five grounders. Then, on Sunday, the Twins promoted Graterol to Triple-A, perhaps for one last test-run ahead of a big-league debut. About that open 40-man spot... https://twitter.com/BlueWahoosBBall/status/1162898690207563776 This is exciting stuff and we'll be tracking it very closely. Graterol, still only 20 and touching nearly 104 MPH on the gun as a reliever, has the potential to be a real difference-maker in the Twins bullpen for September and (hopefully) beyond. DOWN ON THE FARM As the Twins continue to search for answers in the late innings, last summer's Ryan Pressly trade is haunting them like a walk in the Metrodome. Minnesota gave up control of a reliever who now ranks among the league's very best, while their bullpen suffers. Not only that, but Pressly is doing it for a chief rival in the American League. It's not all bleak, though. There have been positive recent developments with the prospects who came back in exchange for Pressly. Jorge Alcala, the headlining arm, has mostly been a disappointments since arriving, and owns a 5.87 ERA overall at Pensacola this year. But in late July, the Twins finally stopped trying to use him as a starter, shifting him to a more suitable bullpen role. He has since allowed only two runs on seven hits and two walks in 10 2/3 innings, with seven strikeouts. The Twins announced on Sunday he's moving up to Triple-A along with Graterol, so Alcala too has the potential to impact this pennant race with his high-powered arm. And then there's Gilberto Celestino, a younger outfielder who came over alongside Alcala. He struggled mightily through the first two months at Cedar Rapids this year, putting up a fruitless .219/.299/.290 slash line, but has completely turned things around this summer. Since the start of June he's at .322/.389/.506, including .407/.467/.630 in his past 20 games. The 20-year-old brings standout speed and increasingly evident power. When you talk about "helium guys" in the Twins system, Celestino's near the top of the list. LOOKING AHEAD The good news is that Minnesota took advantage of its favorable schedule to re-stake a 2.5-game lead in the Central last week. The better news is that they're well positioned to build on this momentum in the week ahead. You can't really ask for an easier slate than the White Sox and Tigers at home, although the Twins will have to deal with Lucas Giolito and Matthew Boyd. Meanwhile, Cleveland is heading into Citi Field to face Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, and the Mets before returning home to welcome (with a huge sigh of relief) the Royals. Oh, and by the way, Cruz is expected back on Monday. MONDAY, 8/19: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Ivan Nova v. RHP Kyle Gibson TUESDAY, 8/20: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Michael Pineda WEDNESDAY, 8/21: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. RHP Jake Odorizzi FRIDAY, 8/23: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Matthew Boyd v. RHP Jose Berrios SATURDAY, 8/24: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Edwin Jackson v. LHP Martin Perez SUNDAY, 8/25: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Spencer Turnbull v. RHP Kyle Gibson Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 119 | MIN 7, MIL 5: Marwin Comes Up Clutch To Put the Twins Back in First Place Game 120 | MIL 6, MIN 5: Twins Can’t Sweep, Polanco Commits Costly Error Game 121 | MIN 13, TEX 6: Pineda Solid While Offense Provides Plenty Game 122 | MIN 4, TEX 3: Twins Prevail Behind Clutch Schoop HR, Great Bullpen Performance Game 123 | MIN 12, TEX 7: Twins Win Slugfest in Texas Game 124 | MIN 6, TEX 3: Polanco Leads Twins Over Lynn in Texas

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/5 through Sun, 8/11 *** Record Last Week: 2-5 (Overall: 71-47) Run Differential Last Week: -14 (Overall: +127) Standing: Tied for 1st Place in AL Central Willians Watch: Out Indefinitely Exactly one week after losing Byron Buxton to a shoulder injury that will likely sideline him through at least the end of August, the Twins sustained another devastating blow with the loss of Nelson Cruz, who came up wincing on a swing-and-miss in Thursday's opener against Cleveland. Prior to last week, Cruz had almost single-handedly powered Minnesota through a 7-2 stretch against the Marlins, White Sox, and Royals with eight homers and 19 RBIs. His diagnosis of a ruptured tendon is actually being portrayed as relatively positive news, but we'll see. The Twins have fumbled away an opportunity to show something against quality competition since the All-Star break, sandwiching their successful run against the aforementioned basement-dwellers with a 7-12 record against the Mets, A's, Yankees, Braves, and Indians. The lack of effectiveness against these teams is going to make it hard for anyone to feel confident in Minnesota's outlook for the postseason, even if they're able to ride a soft remaining schedule to a division title or wild-card berth. Outside of Cruz going down, the past week in roster moves was a medley of pitching switches. Cody Stashak was optioned on Tuesday to make room for Kohl Stewart, who himself was sent back down the next day in exchange for Randy Dobnak. On Friday, Stashak was recalled to fill Cruz's vacant roster spot. The Twins aren't exactly trafficking distinguished arms here, but Dobnak's excellent debut on Friday was (as we'll discuss shortly) a shining beam of positivity amidst a pall of darkness. HIGHLIGHTS The week started on a high note, as Miguel Sano extended his resurgent offensive tear with one of the season's biggest hits: a walk-off, two-run homer to beat the Braves at Target Field on Monday. He entered the game with a .901 OPS since the start of June – trailing only Cruz (1.145) and Max Kepler (.909) among Twins hitters. Sano's production tailed off in the latter part of the week, as he went 1-for-14 with with seven strikeouts against Cleveland, but he has rightfully earned his way up to the No. 3 spot in the order with a discerning, punishing plate approach that closely resembles the pre-injury version of himself. Sano's return to form, along with the continuing emergence of Luis Arraez (six more hits last week, including the ninth-inning single that set up Sano's walk-off), has been hugely invigorating for an offense that's otherwise seen several important contributors get hurt or cool off. Sano and Arraez are the straws stirring the drink right now. Pitching-wise it was not a good week in general, but Jake Odorizzi certainly deserves credit for coming up with his best start in two months on Monday, when he held Atlanta to one run over six innings, even though it took him a season-high 109 pitches to accomplish it. He followed with another strong – albeit inefficient – effort on Saturday, tossing 5 2/3 scoreless innings while showing renewed life on his splitter and compiling 17 whiffs. Odorizzi has rebounded nicely after his nine-run clunker against the Yankees in late July, allowing two runs (and only one homer) over 17 1/3 innings in three starts since. The other big highlight of the week, especially for those who love a good underdog story, was the arrival of Dobnak. The 24-year-old right-hander originally came to the Twins organization from an independent league after going undrafted out of college. Despite lacking standout stuff or big strikeout rates, Dobnak rapidly cruised through the minors, opening this season at Single-A and jolting to the majors within four months on the strength of his stifling performance: 11-3 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.98 WHIP between three levels. In his MLB debut on Friday, Dobnak lived up to his statistical profile. He got a few swings and misses but was more dependent on weak contact, unleashing a bevy of sinkers in the zone en route to four shutout innings. When Eddie Rosario went deep with a solo shot on Friday night, it marked a new franchise record for home runs, surpassing the 225 benchmark set by Harmon Killebrew, Bob Allison, and the 1963 Twins. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1160358103545798658 With more than seven weeks remaining on the schedule, this was undeniably a remarkable and impressive feat, but somehow it felt hollow amidst another frustrating week that exposed Minnesota's inability to overcome quality opponents on the basis of this one-dimensional advantage. LOWLIGHTS Outside of Odorizzi, we saw the bottom fall out for the Twins rotation last week. A feisty and tenacious offense did its part but could not dig out of the massive holes built by starters who simply wilted against good lineups in critical spots. On Tuesday, Jose Berrios turned in one of the worst starts of his career, coughing up a whopping nine runs (all earned) over 5 2/3 innings against the Braves. His night started with a home run on the first pitch to Ronald Acuna, and hardly got any better from there as he issued a season-high four walks while yielding nine hits. In his second start of the week on Sunday, Berrios showed improvement, getting through six frames with three runs allowed, but still looked nothing like the ace Minnesota needs him to be. Fighting through diminished velocity and a scarcity of swinging strikes, Berrios is setting off alarm bells right now. On Wednesday, Martin Perez dropped yet another dud, allowing seven runs (six earned) on 11 hits in six innings versus Atlanta. It was the lefty's third time in his last four starts allowing 5+ ER and 3 HR, further endangering a seemingly precarious rotation spot. After coming up with five quality starts in his first seven turns through May 17th, Perez has since delivered only three QS in 13 starts. Bumping him to the bullpen would be a mere formality at this point if a clear upgrade were readily available. But Michael Pineda remains on the IL and Devin Smeltzer tarnished his case on Friday with a thrashing at the hands of Cleveland, coughing up seven runs (six earned) in just 4 1/3 innings in a game that could've taken a major toll on the bullpen if not for Dobnak. We've seen a lot of good from Smeltzer this year, but his two letdowns have been exceedingly painful since both came against the Indians. Makes it a little tough to count on him. All those lowlights aside, the biggest flub of the week from my perspective was Kyle Gibson's start on Thursday to kick off the Cleveland series. It wasn't the worst performance we saw from a Twins pitcher but given all the circumstances, I view it as maybe the low point of Gibson's career in Minnesota. All of Gibson's worst traits were on display in a tone-setting struggle against Cleveland's lineup. He was constantly timid around the zone, piling up six walks in 4 1/3 innings while throwing more balls (43) than strikes (42). His tenseness on the mound manifested in the second when he botched a pickoff throw, allowing a run to score. I've always considered myself a Gibby defender. He's a homegrown, drafted-and-developed pitcher who's been a quality organizational citizen – a likable guy that embraced analytics and outside-the-box techniques to reinvent himself. He's an above-average starter who occasionally flashes dominance, and I personally believe he has earned the opportunity to play a key role in Minnesota's first real playoff push since he's been in the majors. But he's running out of time to alter the narrative that he can't get it done against dangerous lineups when the team really needs him to step up. This latest outing was unfortunately the kind that may well end up defining his legacy with the Twins. There are few series remaining against offenses that pose a real threat, and if Gibson can't buck his trend and come through in those opportunities (starting with Milwaukee on Wednesday), he probably won't get a chance to bolster his legacy – and free agent stock – in the postseason. TRENDING STORYLINE Our worst fears have been realized. The Twins have seen what was once an 11.5-game lead in the AL Central vanish entirely. Despite some grumblings to the contrary, this is due to Cleveland's torrid play more than any ostensible "collapse" from Minnesota, whose degradation from unstoppable force in the early months to a merely mortal and solid unit still leaves them 24 games above .500, and on a 97-win pace. With that said, this team is clearly confronting a moment of truth. They are watching their once-firm grasp on the Central disappear before their very eyes. The Twins are playing their worst ball of the season as the Indians play their best, and as a result, a division title – and even a playoff entry – are very much in doubt. The front office didn't take especially decisive action at the deadline, and while your mileage may vary on this strategy, I'm okay with protecting prime minor-league assets. Sustainability is an important consideration. Having said that, this is a crucial window of opportunity. You can't assume you'll find yourself in this position next year. The Twins need to do whatever they can to maximize their chances, not just of reaching October but of making a run there. Does that mean taking the drastic step of, say, calling up Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach from Double-A? Larnach has been raking in August and Kirilloff's pure raw talent supersedes his ordinary numbers. These are lightning-in-a-bottle type additions capable of sparking a lineup that feels very incomplete sans Buxton and Cruz. An even more intriguing option, given the club's needs, would be Brusdar Graterol, the flame-throwing righty who returned to the Double-A mound last week, striking out three of the six batters he faced in a relief appearance for the Blue Wahoos. This pitching staff needs a difference-maker. Graterol could be it. And the silver lining of his shoulder injury, which sidelined him for more than two months, is that the downtime kept his innings total in check. The problem, in any of these scenarios, is twofold: First, you're talking about throwing inexperienced youngsters who are still acclimating to the Double-A level into a major-league pennant race. It's an insane amount of pressure, and the kind of thing that could adversely affect development if it goes poorly. Second, you're starting the service clock on players who are still probably a ways away from being full-time big-league contributors. In the case of Graterol, who's still just 20 years old, you'd be setting him up to potentially be out of options by age 23. Then again, those are the kinds of risks you necessarily take when you're in it. And the Twins are very much in it. We'll see hold bold this regime can be. DOWN ON THE FARM If the Twins were feeling hints of buyer's remorse for the Sergio Romo trade, which sent prospect Lewin Diaz to the Marlins, they might have gotten some relief over the weekend. Yes, Diaz has been on an absolute tear since joining Miami's Double-A affiliate, with five home runs in 13 games. And the pitching prospect Minnesota got back in the swap, Chris Vallimont, was shelled in his first start for the Miracle. But Romo's been very good and Vallimont bounced back in a big way on Friday, carrying a no-hitter into the eighth and finishing with seven superlative innings. Diaz definitely looks like a player, but all-in-all, the Twins will happily swap out a defensively limited hitter for pitching upside at this point. Vallimont has some real steam in prospect circles and in his second start with his new organization, he showed why. Speaking of pitchers, one other development worth watching on the minor-league front: Trevor Hildenberger opened up a rehab stint in the Gulf Coast League on Saturday, logging a scoreless inning against the Red Sox affiliate. It was his first official appearance since June 8th. Who knows what to expect from Hildenberger at this point, but if he can find any semblance of his old form it could provide a much-needed infusion for the big-league bullpen. Stephen Gonsalves also returned to the mound in the GCL following a long injury layoff, but seems much less likely to be a factor for the Twins down the stretch. LOOKING AHEAD Another tough week awaits, with Minnesota heading across the border to face Christian Yelich and the Brewers, then traveling south for four games against Texas in the August Arlington heat. These aren't great teams, but they're good teams, and both will present a brisk challenge for the reeling Twins. Afterwards, the schedule gets much easier – 12 straight games against the White Sox and Tigers – but a winning week ahead will be important, both for keeping pace with the unrelenting Indians, and for restoring confidence. TUESDAY, 8/13: TWINS @ BREWERS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Chase Anderson WEDNESDAY, 8/14: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Gio Gonzalez THURSDAY, 8/15: TWINS @ RANGERS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Pedro Payano FRIDAY, 8/16: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. LHP Mike Minor SATURDAY, 8/17: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Ariel Jurado SUNDAY, 8/18: TWINS @ RANGERS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Lance Lynn Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 112 | MIN 5, ATL 3: May Throws Fire, Sano Launches a Walk-Off Bomb in Twins Win Game 113 | ATL 12, MIN 7: Berrios Bad Night Leads to Braves Blowout Game 114 | ATL 11, MIN 7: Perez Struggles and Offense is Too Late in Rubber Match Game 115 | CLE 7, MIN 5: Gibson Struggles, Late-Inning Rallies Fall Short Game 116 | CLE 6, MIN 2: Twins Set Home Run Record, Lose to Cleveland Game 117 | MIN 4, CLE 1: Odorizzi Solid, Offense Takes Advantage of Key Opportunities Game 118 | CLE 7, MIN 3: Frustrating Loss Marred by Heartbreaking Moments