Nick Nelson

In projecting the playoff bullpen, we need to set a few parameters. We'll presume that the Twins carry 12 pitchers, which is generally the most you'll see given the reduced need for starting depth. Even the Brewers, who last year bullpened their way through the playoffs, carried only 12 pitchers. So, we can safely assume that six of those pitchers will be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, and Sergio Romo. Next, there is a batch of borderline locks: Randy Dobnak, Martin Perez, Devin Smeltzer. The length these guys provide is essential, especially with Minnesota possibly planning on multiple bullpen games in a series. One might quibble with Perez's presence in that second group, but I think his effectiveness against lefties (.592 OPS) solidifies his bid, given the lack of specialist alternatives. That leaves us with, at most, three open spots for the taking. And that's if the Twins elect to carry a shorthanded bench in favor of additional pen flexibility. Here are the candidates, listed from most-to-least viable as I see it: 1. Cody Stashak, RHP Stashak has ever-so-quietly put together a dominant showing in his major-league debut, posting a 23-to-1 K/BB ratio through his first 22 innings with an elite swing-and-miss rate. Control and stuff: two traits you absolutely want in your bullpen against imposing lineups filled with sluggers. The only question is how Stashak, a former 13th-round draft pick who opened this season in Double-A, will handle the pressure of such a stage. There's been zero indication to this point that he'll be rattled much. 2. Zack Littell, RHP In his second appearance of the season, Littell wore one against the Rays, giving up eight runs over 4 1/3 innings in mop-up duty. Since then, Littell has a 0.94 ERA over 25 appearances. He vacillates between a 94 MPH fastball and 87 MPH cutter in equal measure, and the formula's been very effective for him. Littell has recorded five or six outs in three of his past four appearances, so he's primed to handle a couple innings. That's very handy for the Twins in their situation. You could make a fair case that Littell should be No. 1 on this list, or even in the lock category. 3. Brusdar Graterol, RHP The 21-year-old's initial exposure to the majors has had its ups and downs, but the invigorating high points reaffirm his potential impact. Graterol is the kind of weapon you like to have at your disposal in tight contests, bringing triple-digit heat that's tough to square up when he locates it. Obviously there's an added level of risk and uncertainty at play here, but I think the Twins will wisely accept that in tandem with his upside. 4. Lewis Thorpe, LHP Now we're getting into the "outside looking in" group. Thorpe is an interesting case, because he offers length the Twins might value in front-to-back bullpen games. But he has a 6.15 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. There have been moments where Thorpe's looked really good, and his competitive moxy would fit right in with the intensity of October, but it's hard to imagine the Twins calling on him for multiple innings in a playoff game. He hasn't been good against lefties so match-ups don't really factor. 5. Kyle Gibson, RHP The Twins have given Gibson every chance. His last three appearances cascaded into catastrophe, systematically eroding the notion that he can help in any kind of postseason role. First, Gibson came back from an IL respite and got bashed for six runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings. Then, he made a relief appearance and promptly gave up a costly home run. Most recently, he was an erratic mess against Kansas City, failing to complete two innings. Over his past five appearances, opponents are hitting .413 against Gibson. The physically-hampered righty continues to miss bats even in this diminished state, which is the only solace I'll take in the (likely?) event that the team carries him out of sheer loyalty. 6. Fernando Romero, RHP At the beginning of the season, it would've been easy to envision Romero at the head of this conversation. But that was a long time ago, and the 24-year-old has since had a rough go of things. Constantly wrestling with his command, Romero has seen his upper-90s fastball fail to garner the desired results, in both Triple-A and the majors. There's still a glimmer of intrigue in that raw arsenal, but he's been too shaky to merit any trust. 7. Ryne Harper, RHP It's a raw deal for Harper. He was a vital bullpen fixture in the first half. He's a great story. I'd love to see him playing a role in the postseason. I just don't think the Twins can justify carving out a spot for him. Harper's heavy reliance on a big slow curveball, supplemented by a sub-mediocre fastball, was solved by big-league hitters after about three months, resulting in a 5.51 ERA and .318 opponents' average since the break. The idea of serving those pitches up against a bloodthirsty Yankees or Astros lineup is... discomforting. 8. Trevor Hildenberger, RHP Given his history, Hildenberger might've nudged his way back into the postseason picture -- despite his immense struggles over the past year-plus -- had he managed to string together a few shutdown performances here in September. But that hasn't happened. The righty looks awful. In three appearances since returning to the Twins, he's allowed six runs on six hits and three walks in 2 1/3 innings, with two swinging strikes on 59 pitches. He's not usable. 9. Kohl Stewart, RHP Stewart's last three appearances for the Twins have come against likely postseason teams: OAK, NYY, ATL, WAS. Here's how that went: 7 IP, 13 H, 10 ER (12.86 ERA), 6 K, 3 BB, 2 HR. He serves no purpose outside of mopping up meaningless innings and that's just not a guy you need around in a five-game playoff series. 10. Jorge Alcala, RHP The fact that he has made one appearance since being called up 10 days ago, as the sixth pitcher in a game that slipped out of hand late, tells you all you need to know about where he stands in this bullpen hierarchy. Alcala is merely an extra emergency arm to have around for September, and it's become clear he was never auditioning for anything more. Based on these rankings and the supposition of a 12-man staff, here's how I see the ALDS bullpen shaking out: Berrios, Odorizzi, Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, Dobnak, Perez, Smeltzer, Stashak, Littell, Graterol. What do you think? Would you rearrange these rankings? How many pitchers do you foresee them carrying? Have any creative thoughts on strategy and deployment? Sound off in the comments.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/16 through Sun, 9/22 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 96-60) Run Differential Last Week: +2 (Overall: +167) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.0 GA) Magic Number: 3 The Twins got Marwin Gonzalez back last week. The versatile vet returned on Monday following a three-week absence, starting six of the team's seven games. Max Kepler, however, remains sidelined. He played only one inning all week, appearing briefly at the end of Saturday's loss to Kansas City as a pinch-runner and center fielder. He hasn't taken an at-bat since the doubleheader in Cleveland two weekends ago, and there is still no firm timeline for him to rejoin the lineup. Adding to the team's injury woes is Mitch Garver, who came out of Sunday's game midway through with right hip tightness, which seemed to be affecting him at the plate beforehand. His removal was deemed precautionary, but at this late stage it's worrisome to see the club's best hitter dealing with any kind of new health issue. HIGHLIGHTS In a season full of a good stories, Randy Dobnak might have 'em all beat. The pitching staff on its own has a number of inspirational and remarkable rookie narratives, from Ryne Harper to Devin Smeltzer to Cody Stashak and beyond. These are underdogs contributing to one of the greatest teams in Twins history, each with his own uniquely heartwarming backstory. But Dobnak has got to take the cake. The story detailed by Dan Hayes at The Athletic pretty much says it all: Dobnak has a wedding coming up on September 28th and he had to sheepishly ask his manager for permission to attend it. Why, you might ask, would a baseball player schedule a wedding for the final weekend of the MLB season? Because two years ago, when the date was set, what's happening now was not even on the radar. Dobnak was an undrafted pitcher out of the GMAC, throwing in Utica for an indy team before the Twins signed him in 2017. While not the most flashy or dominant, all he's done since coming aboard is shut down hitters. He improbably flew through the minors on that strength and now is logging big innings during a pennant race. On Friday, Dobnak fired 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Royals, lowering his ERA to 2.01 through eight appearances. It seems very likely he'll be on the playoff roster. A case can even be made for him as their Game 2 starter. Unreal. Another starter building confidence as October approaches: Jake Odorizzi, who was in dominant form against Chicago on Wednesday with nine strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball. With 13 swinging strikes on the night, Odorizzi notched double-digits for a 10th straight turn. His 13.9% whiff rate over that span ranks 12th in baseball. The Twins can't count on Odorizzi giving them much length – he has completed six innings only once in his last 15 starts, and hasn't pitched into the seventh since early May – but he has reliably held opposing offenses in check. The recipe in October will call for him to get through five solid frames, with Minnesota relying on its bullpen depth to handle the balance. That bullpen, for the most part, continues to deliver. Trevor May gave up two solo homers to the White Sox Tuesday in his worst outing since July, but came back with a vengeance, striking out six over 2 2/3 innings against Kansas City. His save on Friday night, which saw him strike out the side on 13 pitches, was one of the most dominant appearances we've seen from a Twins pitcher all year. At least, up until Tyler Duffey did it on 12 pitches in the fifth inning Sunday, running his scoreless appearance streak to 25 in the process. Stashak added onto his quietly fantastic rookie campaign with seven strikeouts over three scoreless innings. Stashak has a 3.13 ERA and 23-to-2 K/BB ratio in 23 innings since being called up, and his swinging strike rate is eighth-highest among AL relievers since the All-Star break – one spot behind Duffey. With his outstanding ability to pound the zone and miss bats, Stashak is making an ironclad case for inclusion on the postseason roster. Offensively, Miguel Sano is driving the bus. He was an absolute slugging force last week, piling up four homers, a double, and a triple (!) while driving in 11 runs. He struck out only eight times in 31 plate appearances, with four walks. It is just a joyous delight to watch that powerful swing connect: https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1175845330329489409 Nelson Cruz broke out of his minor slump on Thursday, launching a pair of homers with five RBIs, and the DH added five more hits over the weekend. On Sunday he boomsticked his 40th home run of the season and the 400th of his career. Best free agent signing in Twins history? He could lock up that title with a big October. I would be remiss not to mention LaMonte Wade Jr.'s awesome week. He didn't get a ton of ABs, but made the most of them, going 5-for-13 with a monster home run and contributing a key play on the base paths as a pinch-runner in Tuesday night's thrilling win. He has quietly been tremendous during his rookie stint, showing zero signs of intimidation. The Twins have gotta be feeling quite good about their outfield depth moving forward. LOWLIGHTS Flashy contributions from Sano and Cruz notwithstanding, the offense has been rather tepid of late. You'd like to see hitters getting fat against the weak pitching staffs in town over the past week, but the lineup was silent for long stretches, and put forth a couple of strikingly sub par efforts – most notably when they were no-hit through five innings in a one-run effort against Chicago in a bullpen game Wednesday. Sunday's 12-run outburst marked Minnesota's first time since August 30th reaching double digits, their second-longest such drought of the year. The Twins' team OPS in September is the lowest of any month by 50 points. They've been held to two or fewer runs seven times, which is already more than any previous month. Yes, some of this does owe to injuries – Kepler's absence looms large – but there's also been a lack of thunder and/or consistency from some players the Twins are counting on. Eddie Rosario had a couple big games, but also went hitless in three of seven, with his undisciplined plate approach and generally questionable effort level causing some frustration. Jonathan Schoop went 1-for-14 on the week. Willians Astudillo's (0-for-6) at-bats have become so uninspiring I had to finally pull the plug on the Willians Watch weekly tracker. If they are to have any hope of moving past the first round of the playoffs, the Twins will need their offense to rise to the occasion, plain and simple. Because, despite the bullpen's impressive rise and Odorizzi's potency, this pitching staff isn't offering much reason to believe. Jose Berrios lapsed on Saturday night against Kansas City, coughing up five runs over six innings. His performance wasn't as bad as the numbers show, but nevertheless it was another poor result for Minnesota's likely Game 1 starter. Kyle Gibson might've pitched his way off the postseason roster on Thursday with an abhorrent performance that saw him fail to get through two innings. Gibson walked four of the 12 batters he faced, threw only 25 of 52 pitches for strikes, and visibly ran out of gas in a hurry. He's scheduled to get one more start in Detroit on Tuesday, but I'm not sure what he can do at this point to convince the Twins they can trust him in any capacity. With Gibson becoming a nonfactor, the Twins will be pressed into relying on Martin Perez, who looked flat-out awful while surrendering an egregious 18 hits over seven total innings in two starts against poor lineups. They'll also need maximum efficacy throughout the bullpen ranks, which is why it was troubling to see Taylor Rogers lit up by Kansas City on Saturday night, when he gave up three runs on three hits while recording only one out (on a sacrifice). It was his first time allowing multiple runs in an outing since the grand slam against Cleveland seven weeks ago, so hopefully nothing but a late-season hiccup for the closer. TRENDING STORYLINE How are the Twins going to piece together enough quality innings to have a chance against New York or Houston in a short series? That's the urgent question with one week to go until the playoffs. Impressions made here in the final days of the season are going to matter; Rocco Baldelli has only two viable starters and a shortage of experienced, established relief arms. He will need to ride his hot hands to some extent. Can Gibson do anything to salvage the end of his season? Can Perez inspire any semblance of faith? How will the back end of an October bullpen come together, with numerous deserving candidates for a limited number of spots? These are pivotal questions needing answers. DOWN ON THE FARM Action is underway in the Arizona Fall League, and Minnesota's top prospect has wasted no time putting on a show. On Thursday night Royce Lewis started in center field and made a dazzling catch that brought to mind visions of Byron Buxton: https://twitter.com/wboor/status/1174872875062312961 Shortly thereafter, he uncorked a towering home run to left field: https://twitter.com/MiLB/status/1174883543165657088 It's certainly been interesting to see Lewis, who played shortstop almost exclusively for the Miracle and Blue Wahoos this season, make starts at both center field and third base in his first week in the AFL. This is a necessary machination in a league where many prospects need to be fitted into lineups, but it's especially interesting to monitor with Lewis, whose future defensive home could very well be one of these positions. Given his speed and instincts, it always stood to reason that Lewis could be an asset in center. It was fun to see the skills manifesting on the field. LOOKING AHEAD The best road team in baseball heads out for a final midwest swing, which will bring them through Detroit and Kansas City to close things out against the dregs of the AL Central. They should theoretically be able to wrap up the division before the weekend, then start prepping for the ALDS. All eyes will be on the health status of guys like Kepler and Garver, who now have about one week left to get right. TUESDAY, 9/24: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Spencer Turnbull WEDNESDAY, 9/25: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Daniel Norris THURSDAY: 9/26: TWINS @ TIGERS – TBD v. RHP Jordan Zimmermann FRIDAY, 9/27: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Eric Skoglund SATURDAY, 9/28: TWINS @ ROYALS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Glenn Sparkman SUNDAY, 9/29: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Jorge Lopez Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 150 | MIN 5, CWS 3: Berrios Tosses a Strong 7.1 Innings Game 151 | MIN 9, CWS 8: Twins Win Wild Game on a Walk Off Hit-By-Pitch Game 152 | CWS 3, MIN 1: Twins’ Offense Absent Against Chicago Bullpen Game Game 153 | MIN 8, KC 5: Nelson Cruz Crushes 2 Homers in 8-5 Win Game 154 | MIN 4, KC 3: Randy Dobnak Continues to Dominate in 4-3 Win Game 155 | KC 12, MIN 5: Twins Blow Lead, Implode in Ninth Game 156 | MIN 12, KC 8: Twins Offense Erupts for Twelve Runs Over Royals

When he joined the organization as a first-round draft pick, Gibson looked a fast-track type pitching prospect, especially while rocketing through three levels of the minors in his first full season. While the Twins were making a playoff run in the first season at Target Field in 2010, a 22-year-old Gibson was rapidly climbing through the minors, coasting through Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A with outstanding numbers at each stop. He entered the 2011 season as Baseball America's No. 34 prospect, imminently ready to step in as Minnesota's next rotation centerpiece. But just as he was seemingly knocking on the door around the summer's midpoint, his numbers at Triple-A took a dive. A torn UCL was discovered he went for Tommy John surgery. Gibson's meteoric ascent came to a crashing halt. He spent most of 2012 rehabbing, and came back strong. Gibson reached the majors in 2013 and struggled, as many rookies do. In 2014, he – somewhat surprisingly – made the big-league rotation out of camp, and put together a respectable first full season, with a 4.47 ERA and 3.80 FIP in 180 innings. Gibson took another step forward in 2015, posting a 3.84 ERA and 3,96 FIP in 194 innings, albeit with modest strikeout and swing-and-miss rates. At 27, it looked like he had arrived as a quality mid-rotation piece whose raw stuff might never reach its pre-surgery potential. Then, in 2016, things went south for Gibson, as they did for most of the team. His velocity sagged to career lows and hittability became a major issue. Though his surgically repaired elbow was holding up, Gibson was now afflicted by nagging back and shoulder soreness. He admitted later that he didn't make a start all year without anti-inflammatory medication. In the ensuing offseason, Gibson decided to take radical action with hopes of relieving the pain and turning around his career. He visited the Florida Baseball Ranch, where he embarked on a program designed to develop – in the words of Star Tribune's Phil Miller – "an entirely new way of delivering the baseball, about as fundamental a change as a pitcher can make." The new exercises and drills, Miller wrote, were "meant to retrain Gibson and alter his throwing motion, so he holds the ball more upright, at an angle of less than 90 degrees, which enables him to reach his release point more directly. That, combined with a de-emphasis on extending his arm after releasing the ball, has dramatically reduced the amount of stress on his pitching shoulder." The overhaul did not pay immediate performance dividends, as Gibson scuffled through the first half of 2017 and finished June with a 6.11 ERA. But in the latter half of the year, he began to find it. The velocity was ticking up. The breaking balls gained sharpness. His strikeout rate rose. Posting a 3.55 ERA in August and September, and propelling the Twins to a 9-2 record in his starts, Gibson was a key factor in Minnesota's unlikely post-deadline charge to the wild-card. In 2018 he kept it rolling. With the highest strikeout rate of his career (8.2 K/9), the right-hander turned in a 3.62 ERA over 197 innings, ranked second among Twins pitchers in WAR (2.6), and put his vastly improved arsenal on display with an 11.5% swinging strike rate that shattered his previous watermark. Heading into his final year before free agency, Gibson had come full circle. His path was hardly straight or smooth, but finally the former first-round pick was a valued staple in the rotation, boasting legitimate standout stuff and worthy results. And then – of course – calamity struck again. On a mission trip to Haiti and the Dominican Republic last winter, Gibson contracted E. coli. The illness took a physical toll on him, causing him to drop a ton of weight from an already somewhat slender frame. He showed up to spring training looking gaunt, and by his own admission wasn't quite back to full strength by the start of the season. Nevertheless, he shook off a few bad early starts and pretty much resumed where he left off. As recently as early August, Gibson's ERA sat at 4.02 and he looked like a playoff starter. But in the late stages of this 2019 campaign, the righty has unraveled completely, amidst the revelation he's been dealing with ulcerative colitis and its ravaging effects since spring. At this point, the 31-year-old is a mere shell of what he was even two months ago. His stamina has tanked. His command is gone. His outings have grown increasingly poor, with Thursday night's total meltdown (1.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB with 25 of 52 pitches for strikes against the hapless Royals) setting a new low. It would be surprising – and, frankly, upsetting – to see him pitch in a Twins uniform again this year. A role in the playoffs is essentially out the window. It sucks. For him most of all, I assure you. So many fans, for whatever reason, hold a scornful disdain for Gibson. They lament his every misstep, they accuse him of "nibbling," and they dismiss whatever success he's experienced as flukey and fleeting. But let's be clear: Gibson was no flash in the pan. From August 1st, 2017, through July 31st, 2019 – a full two-year span – he logged a 3.75 ERA (to go along with a 4.03 FIP and 3.78 xFIP) over 376 innings, compiling the 22nd-highest WAR among MLB starters. He emerged as a legitimate second-tier pitcher and he did it through a willingness to do whatever it took. “It wasn’t easy at first, because there’s a lot of modern thinking about the throwing motion and I’m more of a traditional baseball guy,” Gibson said in 2017 of his trip to the Florida Baseball Ranch, and his adoption of its unconventional methods. “I had to open up a little bit to accept new ways of thinking. And I’m glad I did.” It paid off until he was completely derailed by circumstances that go beyond baseball. The Twins will face an interesting decision this offseason, as a free agent exodus opens up several vacancies in the rotation. The decline of Gibson obviously comes with bad timing for him, but could create an intriguing opportunity for whatever team is willing to take a chance on him. He's shown when healthy that he can be a force. Even this year, with all the embattlement, his swinging strike rate is tied with Yu Darvish for 13th-best in the majors. Gibson could very well be a bargain for someone. Perhaps familiarity and cost-efficiency will lead to the Twins being that team. Or, perhaps Minnesota's front office will look elsewhere for a fresh start with a more known commodity. If so, this is a somber end to Gibson's time with the organization that drafted him a decade ago. In some eyes, I'm sure his legacy will be viewed poorly, but I think that's really unfortunate. The fairer narrative portrays a very talented pitcher who repeatedly got dealt bad blows, and went above and beyond to overcome them – including a total mechanical overhaul in his late 20s. Through it all, he's been a good organizational soldier, an appreciated teammate, a forthcoming favorite for media interviews, and a generous contributor to the community. The story of Gibson as a Twin (if this is the end) is an inspiring and admirable one. I hope fans won't let the fact that it's ending the same way it began – defined by injury and disappointment – cloud the general traits of resilience and reinvention he has embodied, all the way up until the bitter end.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/9 through Sun, 9/15 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 91-58) Run Differential Last Week: -1 (Overall: +167) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.5 GA) Magic Number: 9 Willians Watch: 3-for-17 with three singles It's all hands on deck. When the Twins got news over the weekend that Sam Dyson is likely done for the year, they called up Jorge Alcala to join Brusdar Graterol as inexperienced but high-upside young fireballers in the bullpen. Marcus Diplan was DFA'ed to make room for Alcala. Other roster moves from the past week: Byron Buxton was placed on the 60-day IL, officially ending his season. He underwent shoulder labrum surgery, with a 5-6 month recovery timeline that will push right up against 2020 spring training. Ronald Torreyes was added to the 40-man roster in Buxton's stead, and joined the team to replace Ehire Adrianza, who suffered an oblique injury on Thursday that likely ends his season. Kyle Gibson was activated from IL after missing one start, and took the mound on both Thursday and Sunday. You'll find a rundown of his appearances in the Lowlights section below. HIGHLIGHTS Miguel Sano delivered the decisive blow of the season on Saturday night, launching a tie-breaking grand slam that caused all of Cleveland to (either literally or figuratively) mimic the reaction of Indians reliever Nick Goody: https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1173235019806105601 Sano added another home run on Sunday – No. 29 on the ledger despite starting his season on May 16th. The slugger appears to be fully past the back soreness that sidelined him early in the week, which is very good news. Plenty of other offensive mainstays came through for the Twins in this pivotal week: Jorge Polanco, who had a two-run homer wiped away on Friday night, followed up with another one against Mike Clevinger in the Saturday matinee, a blast which proved decisive in a 2-0 win. For the week, Polanco was 7-for-19 with two doubles, two homers and seven RBIs. Mitch Garver launched his 30th home run on Tuesday night, and the two-run jack was key to a late-rallying victory. He finished 3-for-10 with just one strikeout in his three starts for the week. There's been no real fade from Luis Arraez, who just keeps churning out hits in bunches. Last week he was 9-for-23 with three doubles, pushing his August batting average to .400. Overall, his .344 average leads the major leagues among players with 300+ plate appearances. Eddie Rosario shook off a lengthy slump (.156 average and .418 OPS through the first 11 games of August) and saw his bat come alive over the weekend as he launched three homers in the final two games of the Cleveland series. Getting Eddie hot again as the regular season gives way to the playoffs would be an enormous game-changer, so let's hope he can keep it up. Seeing Max Kepler and Jake Cave return to the fold, on Friday and Sunday respectively, was also a very welcome development. As nice as the offensive highlights were, none of them matched the Jose Berrios performance on Tuesday night in terms of magnitude. Desperately needing a strong showing to get back on track, Berrios came through with just that, firing seven scoreless innings against a good offense. In his best start since the end of July, Berrios pounded the zone with efficiency, issuing only one walk with two hits allowed on minimal hard contact. As a negative, the righty didn't quite seem to have his most dominant stuff, getting only four strikeouts while tying a season-low with four swinging strikes. But obviously he'll take those results as something to build upon. As I noted last week, Berrios shook off a late-season slump and finished strong in his final four starts of 2018. Was Tuesday the start of a repeat down the stretch here in 2019? We'll learn more when he takes the mound on Monday night against the White Sox. Rising above all the aforementioned highlights last week was the Twins bullpen, which put forth an exquisite effort in Saturday's doubleheader, as nine pitchers combined to hold Cleveland to five total runs. If you count Devin Smeltzer (3 IP, 0 ER in the day game) and Lewis Thorpe (3.1 IP, 5 ER in the nightcap) as starters, the relief corps combined for 11 2/3 shutout innings against Cleveland on Saturday, with 14 strikeouts and zero walks. Flat-out amazing work. For the week, the bullpen allowed only 10 earned runs over 24 2/3 frames (3.65 ERA) with nearly all the damage coming in what amounts to garbage time (nine of the ER came against low-rung relievers in losses on Thursday and Sunday). Among the standouts were Taylor Rogers (five strikeouts in 2 2/3 scoreless innings), Brusdar Graterol (four strikeouts in three perfect frames), Trevor May (2 IP, 0 R), Tyler Duffey (2.1 IP, 0 ER), and Zack Littell (3 IP, 0 R). The top pieces in this pen are all clicking at the right time. Even with Dyson unavailable, the Twins may well have a bullpen depth advantage over anyone they face in the playoffs, which would prove vital given the shortcomings in the rotation. LOWLIGHTS Tuesday night gem's from Berrios was a lone bright spot for the rotation. Jake Odorizzi allowed two runs in two innings on Friday night before having the game (and his stats) washed out. Martin Perez looked terrible against Washington on Wednesday, coughing up five runs over five innings in a loss. And Gibson... ohhh, Gibby. The Twins are doing whatever tinkering they can to coax their ailing right-hander into some level of effectiveness. They skipped one of his starts before having him take the hill Thursday, hoping extra rest might prove beneficial. Then they called on him out of the bullpen on Sunday, perhaps auditioning him for an altered postseason role. Neither experiment paid any dividends. Gibson looked as bad as ever in his start against Washington, yielding eight runs and four walks over 4 2/3 innings. Execution was incredibly inconsistent for the righty, who misfired constantly and gave up two home runs for – surprisingly – the first time in three months. Interestingly, the Twins tried bringing Gibson back in relief on Sunday, with just two days rest, and he looked much the same, allowing two hits and a walk while needing 31 pitches to get three outs. Shortly after coming in, the righty gave up a no-doubt two-run blast against Roberto Perez that turned a manageable one-run deficit into an intimidating three runs. This is all very distressing. With Michael Pineda out, it's awfully tough to envision a scenario where Gibson isn't counted on for the playoffs in some fairly significant way. While the capability to shut down a good lineup does reside within him, he's offering no glimmers of optimism that he's physically up to realizing it at this time. TRENDING STORYLINE With the magic number down to single digits, focus turns to securing the division officially and gearing up for the ALDS along the way. Expect ample rest for banged-up offensive regulars as the Twins try to nurse their lineup back to health. Fielding a relatively full-strength group will be critical to matching the firepower of a Houston or New York. The pitching staff is more of a fluid situation. Here there are actually assessments and evaluations to be made. Presumably Berrios is your Game 1 starter and Odorizzi lines up for Game 2, but then what? Gibson and Perez are pitching with much on the line (not the least of which being their impending free agencies). Unfortunately, the Twins will have no further opportunities to see these hurlers compete against high-quality lineups, so it's gonna be tough to draw any strong conclusions from what happens in the final two weeks. Meanwhile, the bullpen hierarchy must become solidified for October. Rocco Baldelli is fortunate to have a lot of good options to work with right now. Who will be left out when the team needs to shave down? DOWN ON THE FARM With all the minor-league seasons having reached an end, Twins Daily handed out its 2019 awards last week. You can read about the winners below: Minor League Short-Season Pitcher of the Year Cody Laweryson, RHP Minor League Short-Season Hitter of the Year: Matt Wallner, OF Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year: Randy Dobnak, RHP Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year: Anthony Vizcaya, RHP Minor League Hitter of the Year: Trevor Larnach, OF LOOKING AHEAD It's a downhill ride from here on out. Coming off the triumph in Cleveland, Minnesota returns to Target Field for seven games against the White Sox and Royals. Now, I will say: Chicago showed last time around they can't be taken for granted, especially with Lucas Giolito taking the hill on Tuesday. But the Twins should absolutely be able to chip away at that magic number total in the next seven days. Cleveland opens with three contests at home against a Detroit team they've gone 15-1 against, then they welcome an eliminated Philadelphia team, so the Twins can't count on getting much help. MONDAY, 9/16: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Jose Berrios TUESDAY, 9/17: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. LHP Martin Perez WEDNESDAY, 9/18: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Covey v. RHP Jake Odorizzi THURSDAY: 9/19: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Mike Montgomery v. TBD FRIDAY, 9/20: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Jakob Junis v. LHP Devin Smeltzer SATURDAY, 9/21: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Glenn Sparkman v. RHP Jose Berrios SUNDAY, 9/22: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Jorge Lopez v. LHP Martin Perez Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 144 | MIN 5, WAS 0: Berrios Bounces Back in Twins Win Game 145 | WAS 6, MIN 2: Depleted Twins Fail to Match Up With Strasburg and Nationals Game 146 | WAS 12, MIN 6: Twins Drop Series to Nationals, Cleveland 3.5 Back Game 147 | MIN 2, CLE 0: Bullpen, Polanco Move the Needle in Win Game 148 | MIN 9, CLE 5: Sano Grand Slam Overcomes Rocky Start for Win Game 149 | CLE 7, MIN 5: Bad Defense Costs Twins in Series Finale

In 2011, the film adaptation of Moneyball hit theaters, bringing Michael Lewis's non-fiction work to the big screen. Near the end of the movie, Red Sox owner John Henry invites Billy Beane to Fenway Park for a conversation. Beane had freshly guided small-market Oakland through back-to-back 100-win seasons, overcoming a limited budget by championing innovative strategies and cutting-edge analytics. His success caught the attention of one of baseball's most storied and respected franchises. When Henry (portrayed by Arliss Howard) and Beane (Brad Pitt) sit down to chat, Henry says he heard about Beane receiving an extension offer from A's ownership. "So why did you return my call?" he asks. "Because it's the Red Sox," Beane replies matter-of-factly. Ultimately, Beane turned down a lucrative $12.5 million offer from Boston to stick with Oakland, where he remains today. But the temptation was evident and understandable. You don't have to look hard to find parallels between the Athletics front office of that era, and the current Twins regime. Since taking over a club that had freshly lost 103 games, and hadn't reached the playoffs in six years, Derek Falvey has overseen a complete turnaround for the Twins, who are on the verge of their second postseason berth in three years since Falvey's arrival. Falvey isn't quite working with the budgetary constraints of the A's circa Y2K, but he has brought sophistication to a dated baseball operation, ushering in a rapid analytical awakening. Suddenly, the Twins find themselves mentioned among baseball's most enlightened franchises. As Matthew Trueblood wrote at Baseball Prospectus on Monday: "Most importantly, what the Red Sox need isn't a technological catch-up or an extra fleet of interns in research and development. What they need is, in all likelihood, a top-level change in philosophy, one that aligns them with the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Rays, Twins, and Diamondbacks, who now represent the state of the art." Seeing the Twins mentioned alongside the game's most respected front offices feels surreal, but here we are. Falvey's vision has quickly come to fruition and he – along with his handpicked GM Thad Levine – has this franchise as geared for long-term success as any in baseball. It's no secret that I've long been a fan of the way these guys operate, and the rest of the league has quickly taken notice as well. Unsurprisingly, Minnesota's Chief Baseball Officer has been mentioned as a candidate for the Boston GM vacancy by numerous outlets, including the Boston Globe. Still only 36 years old, Falvey could be viewed as a long-term fixture atop the Red Sox, in the same way Henry fancied Beane (who was 40 back in 2002). So let's just assume that the Sox come calling. How tempted would Falvey be? There are a few things to keep in mind. Falvey grew up in Lynn, MA – roughly 30 minutes from Fenway Park. The Red Sox GM gig brings with it almost unlimited resources. It also brings a level of prestige nearly unmatched in the profession. Boston will undoubtedly be able to dangle a significant raise if they so choose. These are serious perks. Of course, they also will be weighed against some very real factors in Minnesota's favor. For example: Falvey and his family have planted roots here. He's building something special, and is likely only getting started. The Boston job, while glamorous, brings far more scrutiny and stress. It also doesn't necessarily offer much job security. (Dombrowski was fired less than one year after winning a World Series!) Will Falvey make the same move as Beane 17 years ago, and say "Thanks, but no thanks"? I don't know, but I do feel quite confident the Red Sox will at least inquire. He's clearly a rising young star among MLB's executives right now. With luxury tax become a central consideration for even the biggest of spenders, a GM who can stretch a dollar, dig up hidden values, and bolster development is in high demand. If Boston misses on Falvey, they could conceivably turn their attention to Levine, who deserves his own share of credit for the spiffy roster construction in Minnesota. In his case, unlike Falvey's, it'd be a clear step up in terms of role – becoming the No. 1 guy. But on that note, I guess the Twins are in better position than most in this regard, given that they have a two-headed monster atop their front office depth chart. Both Falvey and Levine seem capable of handling the head job solo. Maybe that would make one of them more amenable to leaving. Maybe it'd make the Twins more at peace with such a defection. All I know is that Falvey and Levine appear to have great chemistry, and they've jointly built a hell of a roster in Minnesota, as well as a hell of a baseball ops department. Personally speaking, I've never had more trust in the people running this team in my life than I do right now. So thinking about a big-market shark coming in and pilfering away from what is currently the Twins' foremost competitive advantage? Well, to borrow another line from Moneyball... "It's incredibly hard."

From the big-picture view, one should feel very pleased with the franchise's current state of affairs. This year has undeniably been a success, and for those who suggest that a quick demise in the playoffs would change that, I hope you know how silly it sounds. The Twins have already won more games than in any of the past eight seasons. They set the major-league home run record in five months. Minnesota's lineup has put forth a combination of good, great, and historically unprecedented performances. The new coaching staff has been spectacular by any result-based measure, and the front office that assembled it is now routinely mentioned among the game's most sophisticated and advanced. In the grand scheme, this has been a phenomenal season and there's no doubt we'll remember it for years to come. But here, with the postseason only weeks away, it's also completely fair for fans to be thinking about the small picture. The right here and right now. Minnesota has put itself in tremendous position with 88 wins and a 5.5 game division lead here on September 9th, but there are a number of negative harbingers clouding the skies at exactly the wrong time. The Twins have won two series against teams with .500+ records since the end of June, with one of those coming against a fading Boston team on the brink of elimination. The Michael Pineda suspension is obviously a monumental gut-punch, and leaves the rotation filled with starters who've failed to build up much confidence of late. A medley of key injuries have befallen the position-player core. Things are undeniably trending in a bad direction. With that said, here are nine things you should be feeling good about as we gear up for the final three weeks of the schedule. 1. The Twins have two All-Star starting pitchers. It hardly seems relevant right now given the way they (especially Jose Berrios) have pitched since, but he and Jake Odorizzi were among the league's best pitchers over the first three months of the season. And Odorizzi has quietly settled back into a hell of a groove, with a 3.05 ERA and only two home runs allowed over his past eight starts. From mid-June into July, Odorizzi was out of sorts, giving up loads of homers and generally struggling to get through five innings. But in recent weeks he's returned to form, and Saturday's effort against Cleveland was one of his finest all year. The ups and downs serve as a reminder of the roller-coaster nature of MLB's marathon season. Which is all the more reason we shouldn't give up on Berrios. He's not so far removed from looking like a frontline ace. This seems a good time to mention that in 2018, Berrios went through a similar (albeit less extreme) swoon in the latter half of the summer, but rebounded with a 3.28 ERA and one homer allowed in his final four starts, allowing a .174/.282/.221 slash line. In his final start, he tossed seven innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts against the White Sox. Finally, while losing Pineda at this point understandably feels like a grave development, let us not forget that the Twins sprinted to their amazing start in April and May with him as the least trusted member of the rotation. They've shown they can do it without him. 2. The bullpen is long and strong. The present shortcomings of the rotation are made somewhat more palatable by the strength of the bullpen in recent weeks. Yeah, the whole Sam Dyson fiasco sucks, but in spite of it, Minnesota relievers hold the following AL ranks since the trade deadline: 2nd in FIP (3.90) 2nd in WAR (5.8) 2nd in HR/9 (1.19) 3rd in xFIP (4.22) 4th in K/BB (3.26) 5th in SIERA (4.21) Taylor Rogers is elite, and is – crucially – getting plenty of rest here in the late stretch of the season. Trevor May is pitching as well as he ever has. Sergio Romo provides a vital veteran infusion. Tyler Duffey has quietly emerged. Brusdar Graterol is here, representing an extremely intriguing wild-card factor. As much as people want to fret about the rotation, we should all recognize the bullpen's astounding (and much-needed) turnaround. We've seen how bullpen depth can come into play during recent playoff runs. The Twins outshine several other playoff-bound clubs in this regard. 3. Offensive depth is why they're here. You don't set MLB records for total home runs, and number of players with 20+ home runs, without widespread contributions, and that's just what the Twins have gotten. While we will know more soon, it seems likely the Twins will have to proceed without the totality of Byron Buxton's impact (and maybe with none of it). Max Kepler is dealing with a worrisome shoulder situation. Nelson Cruz's wrist has begun barking again. Marwin Gonzalez has been sidelined for some time with an abdominal issue. Jake Cave and Miguel Sano are banged up too. It's a grim situation in the trainer's room right now, but the Twins still have an awful lot of weapons available even when they're shorthanded. And there is a glimmer of good news on the health front... 4. They'll likely have the luxury of resting their ailing players down the stretch. It would've been nice if the Twins took care of business against Cleveland at Target Field, rather than dropping five of seven in the last two series, to effectively put this thing out of reach. We're not quite there yet. Still, a magic number of 14 with 19 games left to play puts the Twins firmly in the driver's seat, and they're one good week away from being able to essentially coast, with a cakewalk schedule against bottom-dwellers in their final 13 games. Rest isn't a cure-all, but it sure helps, and is probably the only potential remedy for ailments like Kepler's sore (but not structurally damaged!) shoulder, or Cruz's wrist, or Sano's back. Thanks to their depth and the diminishing urgency to win, the Twins should be able to practice a lot of caution in the twilight of the season. 5. Kyle Gibson is capable of dominance. The main outcome of Pineda's suspension is that it significantly elevates the importance of Gibson, who's currently sidelined while dealing with his own medical issue. Berrios and Odorizzi were going to slot among the team's top three playoff starters even with Big Mike around. Now, Gibson will likely step back into that picture. I can presume, from experience, that this item will be the most controversial of the nine listed here. For whatever reason, many Twins fans seem to harbor an inordinate level of resentment toward the right-hander, who has toiled in this organization for a decade and has finally realized the quality of his stuff after working very hard to do so. Yes, Gibson's been rough lately, and inconsistent for much of the season. But this isn't a man wilting mentally in the moment; it's a guy dealing with some truly terrible health-related misfortune. He opened his season coming off an E. coli battle and, as we've now learned, he has been battling ulcerative colitis throughout the summer. This daunting affliction has clearly affected his weight and strength, most recently causing a jarring drop in velocity, and so to me it's impressive he has still managed to post the seventh-highest swinging strike rate among AL starters while vaulting his K-rate to a new career high. That speaks to the underlying quality of his raw stuff, which likely ranks as the best in the rotation. When Gibson is truly on his game he can overpower a good lineup. I don't know if we'll see that side of him again this year, in light of the circumstances, but at least the problem has been acknowledged and the team is taking some steps to try and get him right. 6. Eddie Rosario is lurking. It's been a frustrating year for Rosario. He's lost all semblance of plate discipline and as a result he's become a fairly easy out amidst a lineup that offers few. He just keeps swinging more and more frequently out of the zone, and his production has steadily declined as a result. But let us not forget: when he's locked in, there might not be anyone more dangerous. He loves big stages and big moments; the three-run blast at Yankee Stadium in the 2017 Wild Card Game lingers as an unforgettable highlight in a mostly forgettable game. He's still got time to turn it on and find his zone again. 7. The postseason is an unpredictable beast. I know it's easy for Twins fans to feel a sense of dread about the playoffs, given the complete lack of success this franchise has experienced in October since 1991. As unfavorable developments stack up, it can be tempting to feel like failure is inevitable in an ALDS tilt against the Astros or Yankees. But past letdowns against New York are now irrelevant. They just are. Houston's intimidating rotation guarantees nothing. The Twins are, at the end of the day, a tremendous team, poised to approach or surpass 100 wins with one of the greatest offenses in MLB history. They've shown resilience and tenacity against both the Yankees and Astros this year. This isn't a piranha pack bringing knives to a gunfight. Even if in a weakened state, the Twins are going to have a shot in a short postseason series. 8. No matter what happens, the playoffs are awesome! I've heard people say they'd rather not make the playoffs than get swept out in the first round again. It's an amazing sentiment to me. I get such a deep sense of jealousy when watching postseason action from the outside – a constant reality over the past eight years. This team deserves a spot on the national pedestal, and all the attention and recognition that comes with it. Win or lose, the experience will be important for a young core that figures to mostly stick together for a long time. Which brings me to my final point. 9. This is only the beginning. It's fair to say this is a unique opportunity for the Twins. You can't assume they'll be in this kind of position again next year, or the year after. But from that ol' big-picture view, they really are just getting started. Many key players are under control through multiple prime years to come. Their minor-league system ranks among the league's best. Rocco Baldelli might win Manager of the Year as a rookie skipper, while his first-year pitching coach Wes Johnson already has a solid case as the most impactful in the game. In their third year, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put forth one of the best teams in franchise history, all while focusing on long-term contention above all. Based on what we've seen, I have immense faith in their ability to build around this core and develop players effectively. The future is bright for the Minnesota Twins, no matter what happens in the coming month. That doesn't mean you can't or shouldn't feel concerned about the small-picture, and disheartened by this recent string of events. But as I was heartily reminded over the weekend, perspective is important. Taking a step back, Twins fans should be feeling awfully good about where things stand, and even in the short-term, there's more reason for optimism than it may presently seem amidst a storm of bad news.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/26 through Sun, 9/1 *** Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall: 84-52) Run Differential Last Week: +23 (Overall: +174) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.5 GA) Willians Watch: HE'S BACK! Starting next season, September rosters will increase to 28. So for now, the Twins are enjoying their last year of unencumbered freedom by calling up a full complement of reinforcements for the final month. Among the expected arrivals are a number of familiar pitchers: Zack Littell, Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer. One of those pitchers (probably Smeltzer) will be at least temporarily replacing Kyle Gibson in the rotation, as he was placed on the shelf with ulcerative colitis – apparently it's been bothering him for most of the season, which... ouch. Poor guy. The biggest name in the weekend's roster influx is Brusdar Graterol, Minnesota's top pitching prospect who joins much more as an impact infusion than simply a depth plug. He debuted on Sunday, tossing a scoreless ninth with a strikeout while giving up two weakly hit singles. As advertised, Graterol flashed 100 on the radar gun, and he impressed with his location on a few perfectly placed burners on the edges of the zone. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1168261641005236224 Next in line for his MLB debut is Ian Miller, the speedy outfielder acquired from Seattle last month. The 27-year-old will serve a very specific purpose: wheels on demand. He had 35 steals on 42 attempts in Triple-A this year and is 243-for-294 in seven minor-league seasons. Definitely a good piece to have, although the Twins are even happier to have their centerpiece blazer back. Byron Buxton was activated on Sunday, after having his rehab paused early last week when he felt pain in his shoulder while swinging. He appeared as a defensive replacement late in his first game back. It sounds like he's still not going to be available to hit for the time being, but he can run and play defense so that's positive news. LaMonte Wade Jr., himself activated from a lengthy IL stint, also joins to bolster outfield depth and entered Sunday's game. But... I've buried the lede here! Willians Astudillo has finally returned after hitting .325/.372/.500 in nine games at Triple-A. He started at first base on Sunday in his first game back, finishing 1-for-2 with a pair of HBPs. HIGHLIGHTS How. About. This. Offense. By launching 15 more bombas last week, the Twins blasted past the major-league record for home runs in a season, set by the 2018 Yankees at 267. Multiple other teams will eclipse that mark this year, but the Twins got there first. It's an amazing feat on its own, and especially when you consider they accomplished it before the calendar flipped to September. That wasn't the only notable slugging record to fall. On Saturday in Detroit, the Twins became the first team in MLB history to have eight different players reach 20 home runs, when Jorge Polanco crossed the milestone on a two-run jack. Back in January I wrote about how, as recently as 2013, the Twins didn't have a SINGLE PLAYER hit 20 home runs. It was clear at the time that this lineup would be fundamentally different from those of the Terry Ryan era. But no one could foreseen a turnaround this drastic. https://twitter.com/morsecode/status/1167970886189797376 Contributing to last week's bash-fest, which saw the lineup churn out 49 runs in six games and carry the team to a 5-1 record despite mostly subpar work from the rotation, were a combination of usual suspects and surprise faces. Let's run through some of the top producers in another monster week for the Bomba Squad: Nelson Cruz: He just continues to rake, and was 12-for-25 last week with a homer and eight RBIs. Despite the ruptured tendon in his wrist, the 39-year-old is starting everyday and producing relentlessly. He's even showing excellent vision at the plate, with three walks against four strikeouts last week. Jonathan Schoop: His late-season emergence is very intriguing. For much of the summer his undeniably strong production has been inflated by garbage-time feasting. But no one could say such a thing about last week, arguably his best of the year. Schoop went 7-for-17, with his three home runs including a key early bomb against Lucas Giolito and a tone-setting three-run shot the following day. Schoop still probably doesn't find his way into an optimal, healthy Twins lineup right now, but he's a great piece to have on hand. C.J. Cron: It sure seems like his thumb is feeling better. The first baseman struggled through a couple months while acknowledging his inflammation, going on the shelf two separate times. But of late he's been finding his stroke. Last week he put on a power-hitting clinic with two homers and three doubles among his seven hits. In five starts, he drove in seven runs. Polanco: Another (relative) recent laggard whose bat is once again heating up. The shortstop delivered a nonstop assault at the plate, going 12-for-24 to nudge his batting average back over .300. Max Kepler: He missed time while nursing a bruised knee but was outstanding while on the field, going 4-for-12 with a homer and two doubles. Mitch Garver: He hit the record-breaking home run on Saturday night, one of two on the day and three on the week for the best power-hitting catcher in franchise history. It still feels very weird and wonderful to write those words. Jake Cave: He saw his batting average – which flirted with .500 in the first three weeks of August – come down to earth a bit as he finished 5-for-23 on the week. But Cave mixed in two homers and a double, as well as a big early two-run single on Sunday. In a game that epitomized the all-around contribution that serves as trademark for this historically potent offense, the Twins put up 10 runs on 16 hits in Chicago on Thursday to clinch a sweep despite the absences of banged-up Sano, Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez, and Buxton. Garver was also on the bench. I thought Cave's quote after the game said it all: https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1167201547027177472 While the offense kept surging, the bullpen continued to assert itself as a strength for the Twins. On the week, relievers combined for 22 1/3 innings, allowing just four earned runs (1.61 ERA) with a 26-to-1 (!) K/BB ratio. Just outstanding work. Particular standouts included Trevor May, who struck out eight over three scoreless innings, and Tyler Duffey, who turned in two shutout frames with four strikeouts. These two have quietly turned into overpowering late-inning threats. In August, May allowed just one run in 12 appearances while registering an 18% swinging strike rate. Duffey didn't allow a single run in his 13 appearances while holding opponents to a .167 average. On top of the strong performances, the Twins were able to once again reserve Taylor Rogers, who pitched just once all week, just as he did the week prior. Getting their bullpen ace ample rest at this point of the season is a victory in itself. LOWLIGHTS As fantastically as the Twins have been playing, it becomes slightly harder to enjoy when Jose Berrios – perhaps the team's single most important player as far as postseason advancement is concerned – continues to bottom out. His latest turn counted as an improvement, as he allowed three runs over six innings to qualify for the lowest threshold of a "quality start," but the right-hander was still a far cry from ace form. His velocity continues to sputter. His once-sharp command keeps faltering (he was charged with FOUR wild pitches in the start – one more than he had all season coming in). And once again the gas just seemed to run out midway through; Berrios got through four scoreless frames before giving up three runs in the fifth and sixth. All this against a very weak White Sox offense. Alas, Berrios now must attempt to put a very ugly month behind him – he posted a 7.57 ERA in five August starts as opponents hit .333/.395/.556 – and turn the page in September. Phenomenal as their offense is, the Twins have little hope of winning a playoff series if they don't have a multiple starters who can keep another elite lineup in check. Right now, Berrios doesn't look capable. He's had his hands full with some of the league's worst offenses. That's also true for Gibson, who at one point looked like a credible option to start playoff game No. 2 behind Berrios. For a second straight time on Friday, Gibson faced the AL's worst offense, and for a second straight time the Tigers had his number. This time around, Gibson allowed four runs on 10 hits while laboring through five innings on 107 pitches. Making the long, plodding outing all the more frustrating is that he was pitching with a big lead, having been handed a four-run lead before he even took the mound. Much like Berrios, Gibson is experiencing a troubling decline in velocity at a troubling time. His steady emergence as a quality No. 2/3 type, which began around the middle of 2017, was fueled by all-around velo gains throughout his arsenal – perhaps the result of mechanical overhauls he implemented ahead of the '17 campaign. As the progressive velocity chart below via Brooks Baseball indicates, Gibson saw a steady ascension throughout his pitch repertoire, starting in late 2017 and carrying over all the way to the middle of 2019. But of late? Yikes. That downward dive at the right end is alarming. It is likely that the ulcerative colitis issue, which landed him on the IL Sunday, helps explain Gibson's softened edge. This is a miserable digestive tract affliction that can take a toll on one's overall health, energy, and weight. From knowing people who've dealt with it, I can say it's not always the easiest to treat. But Gibson says he hopes to return after missing just one start. The Twins are a great team. They've shown they can slug with any team in the game, and their bullpen is giving us reason to believe – especially with the arrival of Graterol. But it's just really damn hard to win against fellow great teams without high-end starting pitching, and two of Minnesota's best hopes on this front are completely out of whack with the postseason a month away. Gibson has arguably the best stuff in the rotation. (His 13.3% swinging strike rate leads all Twins starters and ranks qualified among AL starters.) Berrios is undoubtedly the best overall pitcher in the rotation. Until they find a way to get going again, it's hard to have much confidence in the team making any kind of legitimate run. TRENDING STORYLINE While their primary focus for the next month will obviously be fending off Cleveland and locking up the Central, the Twins will simultaneously be trying to establish a pitching hierarchy for the postseason. That means lining up starters for a potential ALDS, of course, but also identifying the most trustworthy arms for the middle and late innings. Given the current state of their rotation, it's very possible the team will pivot to lean heavily on relievers come October. Can Graterol make enough of an impression to warrant a roster spot for the playoffs? I think it's far from a given. Keep in mind he just turned 21 and has thrown only a handful if innings above Double-A. Can May and Duffey continue to distinguish themselves, especially against stronger competition in the next few weeks? Will Rogers look rested or rusty in the action to come after getting a lot of downtime the past couple weeks? These are the threads I'm following closely as we roll into the final month. DOWN ON THE FARM On Thursday, Trevor Larnach was named Florida State League Player of the Year, in recognition of his .316/.382/.459 slash line over 84 games in a pitcher-friendly environment where the average hitter sat at .242/.313/.353. Although the FSL shut down early last week, with Hurricane Dorian bearing down on the Sunshine State, Larnach was still playing, having been promoted to Pensacola midway through July. He celebrated the honor by launching a homer in a 3-for-5 night, and has an .830 OPS through 42 games at Double-A, with Pensacola's regular season reaching its end on Monday. As the minor-league seasons wind down, attention begins to turn fully toward the big-league roster, which is a lot more populous now than it was two days ago. LOOKING AHEAD Twins fans have been dealing with a strange medley of feelings lately. On the one hand, the Twins are setting records, racing toward their first division title in nine years, and winning a whole lotta games. They're 12-4 in their last five series. They're holding strong. On the other hand, they've won only one series against a good team in the past two months. Their rotation looks like a mess even against bottom-dwelling clubs that have all but given up. And now, the difficulty level is about to turn up by several notches. It feels like a reckoning is coming unless Minnesota can rise to the challenge. Fenway Park is an extremely difficult place to win when your pitchers are misfiring. If Berrios and Martin Perez can't turn things around quickly the Red Sox series may get ugly. Afterward, the Twins return home for a massively critical three-gamer against Cleveland, perhaps with a chance to bury the dagger. It's crunch time. MONDAY, 9/2: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Jordan Zimmermann TUESDAY, 9/3: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Rick Porcello WEDNESDAY, 9/4: TWINS @ RED SOX – TBA v. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez THURSDAY: 9/5: TWINS @ RED SOX – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Nathan Eovaldi FRIDAY, 9/6: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Adam Plutko v. RHP Michael Pineda SATURDAY, 9/7: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Aaron Civale v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SUNDAY, 9/8: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Mike Clevinger v. RHP Jose Berrios Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 131 | MIN 3, CWS 1: Bullpen Depth Proves Key In Twins Win Game 132 | MIN 8, CWS 2: Twins Sail Past White Sox for Series Win Game 133 | MIN 10, CWS 5: Break Out the Brooms on the South Side Game 134 | MIN 13, DET 5: Bats Back Up Gibson, Twins Win 6th Straight Game 135 | DET 10, MIN 7: Tigers Tally 10 Runs in Perez’s Worst Start of Season Game 136 | MIN 8, DET 3: Twins Strike Early, Beat Detroit in Brusdar Graterol's MLB Debut