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  1. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/13 through Sun, 5/19 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 30-16) Run Differential Last Week: +23 (Overall: +74) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA) Willians Watch: 3-for-18 last week (Season AVG: .278) Quite a few roster moves to recap from the past week, so here's a rundown: The Twins wanted to keep Tyler Duffey around as an extra reliever, so at the beginning of the week they optioned Jake Cave and recalled him. Mitch Garver made a game-saving play on Tuesday night, blocking the plate beautifully to prevent Shohei Ohtani from scoring with the tying run, but the collision at home took a toll. Luckily, it sounds like Garver and the Twins dodged a bullet – his scary-looking leg injury was diagnosed as a high ankle sprain instead of something more serious – but he was placed on IL and will miss a few weeks at least. Called up to take his place was Miguel Sano, who made his season debut on Thursday night in Seattle and started all four games against the Mariners. Meanwhile, Trevor Hildenberger finally ran out of chances. After allowing multiple runs for the sixth time in eight appearances on Wednesday, nearly costing the Twins a game they should have comfortably won, he was demoted to Rochester. Taking his place is right-hander Austin Adams, a minor-league signing from the winter who'd posted a 28-to-6 K/BB ratio in Triple-A while flinging mid-90s heat. To make room on the 40-man roster, Minnesota designated Addison Reed for assignment. While rehabbing in the minors, Reed had continued to look terrible, so the Twins had little choice but to pull the plug on their free agent bust and eat his remaining salary. It's a real shame because the team could really use Reed at some semblance of his full capacity right now. With Nelson Cruz's wrist healing more slowly than expected, the Twins elected to place him on IL and called up infielder Luis Arraez. Whew. Okay, on to dissecting another highly successful week for your Minnesota Twins: HIGHLIGHTS I don't even know where to start. I truly don't. The Twins have played great baseball all season but they took it to another level against the Mariners, with a comprehensive clobbering that featured contributions from just about everyone. No Garver? No Cruz? No problem. Minnesota still blew up for 40 runs on 11 homers over four games at T-Mobile Field, in one of the most astounding offensive series I've ever seen from a Twins team. C.J. Cron was among those leading the way. After a quiet series against the Angels at Target Field (1-for-10), he went wild in Seattle, where he was 8-for-18 with three home runs and six RBIs in four games. Not long ago, Cron was one of the few laggards in this lineup, entering May with an OPS barely north of .700, but he's raised that mark by 150 points with a prodigious power outburst this month. Also aiding in the bash-fest was Byron Buxton, who went 7-for-26 on the week with three bombs, including a grand slam on Saturday night. The #9 hitter drove in 11 runs over the course of seven games. His presence at the bottom of Minnesota's order is one major element in its intimidation factor. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1130110864676278288 There's just nowhere for opposing pitchers to find cover from the onslaught. Marwin Gonzalez was a reliable soft spot early on, but he's completely turned it around in May, where he's slashing .355/.429/.500. Last week, Gonzalez went 8-for-23 (.348) while playing four different positions. Jason Castro launched two more homers and has now gone deep in five of his eight May starts. Jonathan Schoop sent two over the fence on Saturday night and is rocking an .823 OPS overall. Eddie Rosario has slowed down his feverish HR pace a bit, but is back in rake-mode nonetheless, going 10-for-26 over the past week. And now, the Twins have Sano again. He tallied a pair of doubles in his season debut on Thursday, then picked up his first home run on Saturday night. It's far too soon to say the slugger is "back" – he struck out eight times with one walk against the M's, and had a few very ugly ABs – but with almost everyone else on the offense clicking, the Twins can afford to be patient. LOWLIGHTS It was, quietly, a less stellar week for the rotation, with a few starters beginning slipping up a bit. Most notable among that group is Jose Berrios, who coughed up five runs on 12 hits against the Angels on Monday, and then couldn't get through five frames in Minnesota's blowout over the M's on Saturday. I'm not too worried yet; he's still throwing strikes and was rattling off qualities starts before this rough patch. Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson were unspectacular, though far from terrible. Overall, Twins starters posted a 5.05 ERA over the course of the week, and, well, a couple things: 1. It says a lot about the relative quality of this group that we can view their week as a noticeable negative. Last year Twins starters had a 4.50 ERA for the season. 2. Minnesota still went 5-2 even with the lack of standout work from starters. This team was built to win games on the strength of its offense and that's just what they did. Pretty much the only position player not to join the hitting parade was Willians Astudillo. He went 3-for-18 in five games, extending a slump that's seen him bat .222 in 67 PA since his huge first three games of the season. This visual shared by Ted does a good job illustrating the core problem plaguing La Tortuga at the plate – he's playing right into the hands of opposing pitchers: https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1130182897061761024 I love his aggressiveness as a general trait, but Astudillo has gotta start finding some better pitches to hit. He's too often going after offerings that are nearly impossible to drive, and as a result his hard-hit percentage is (by far) the lowest among Twins hitters at 22.9%. TRENDING STORYLINE It's pretty easy to hide bullpen question marks when you're launching six home runs and taking 10-run leads after a few innings, but that won't keep happening forever. Right now, the Twins' relief corps is crowded with minor-league journeymen. Ryne Harper, Mike Morin, Matt Magill and the newly promoted Adams all came to Minnesota on non-guaranteed contracts. To their credit, these guys have all pitched pretty well – especially Harper, who continues to confound MLB hitters with his slow, bending curveballs. Duffey is another guy who looked like an also-ran at the outset of the season but is making his case as an asset. With a pumped-up fastball in the mid-90s, he's been nasty at times, though the long ball proneness remains troubling. As well as these relievers are throwing, the bullpen still has the feel of a ticking time bomb. The absence of Hildenberger, who was an essential fireman in April, will be felt, and sadly it doesn't look likely he'll be back soon. In his first appearance at Triple-A on Friday, he coughed up four runs in one inning, so there are clearly some serious issues to work through. Fernando Romero is pitching in Rochester alongside Hildenberger, and hasn't been very sharp in his three appearances since heading back down. The indefinite absence of those two, along with the release of Reed, removes three key pieces from Minnesota's planned late-inning mix. It's just really hard to imagine the Twins can get by filling that void with unestablished minor-league vets all summer long, even if it's been working out to this point. The question is whether they'll be proactive in addressing the issue, or wait until leaks start to spring. DOWN ON THE FARM You've gotta feel for Nick Gordon. This is a huge year for him as he seeks to rebound from a brutal 2018 campaign that tanked his stock. He missed the first month due to a stomach issue, then came back at the start of May and raked over eight games, batting .353 with an .889 OPS, but last week he found himself back on IL with a left adductor strain. Hopefully he can make it back soon and continue his redemption tour. Meanwhile, it was an interesting week for Minnesota's #1 prospect. On Thursday, Royce Lewis lined a drive off the top of the wall in a game against Bradenton, and chided himself by pulling into second base with a few push-ups. The Marauders were not too pleased. They threw at him in his next AB, and multiple ejections followed: https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1129420094940045312 A few things stand out to be me in this footage. I'm very impressed by how the umpire handled it, standing tough as Bradenton's manager berated him with an embarrassing temper tantrum. I'm also impressed by how Lewis composed himself, standing quietly in the batter's box throughout the ordeal, waiting for his next pitch. Impressed, but not surprised. Lewis is one of the highest-character guys you'll come across on a ball field, which is why it's so bizarre to me that anyone would perceive his playful antics as anything malicious. Anyway, Royce came out the next night and belted his first home run of the season in his first AB: https://twitter.com/MiracleBaseball/status/1129517743051628544 The 19-year-old shortstop is still slashing just .236/.311/.342 overall, but he's picking it up after a slow start. His teammate Jordan Balazovic, has no such slow start to shake off. The right-hander was masterful in four starts at Cedar Rapids before moving up to Fort Myers, where he has been annihilating the competition. In two starts last week (Monday and Sunday) he struck out 20 batters over 10 innings, pushing his K/BB ratio to 30-to-4 in 17 innings with the Miracle. In our preseason Twins prospect rankings, I noted that "Balazovic was an honorable mention for us, failing to make our Top 20 cut, but I'm wondering if that'll look silly a year from now." Turns out it only took about six weeks. From my view, he's currently the organization's second-best pitching prospect behind Brusdar Graterol, who has a 1.93 ERA through nine starts at Double-A. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins are 5-2 in their current run against AL West opponents, and they'll look to finish strong with another three-gamer against the Angels, this time in Anaheim. (More late night baseball for ya!) After a well-deserved day off on Thursday, Minnesota returns home to face the White Sox for the first time this year. The pitching matchups for that series look quite tantalizing on paper. MONDAY, 5/20: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. TBD TUESDAY, 5/21: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Trevor Cahill WEDNESDAY, 5/22: TWINS @ ANGELS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Matt Harvey FRIDAY, 5/24: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Jose Berrios SATURDAY, 5/25: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Manny Banuelos v. RHP Kyle Gibson SUNDAY, 5/26: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Covey v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 40 | LAA 5, MIN 4: More Missed Opportunities Game 41 | MIN 4, LAA 3: Throw Down Game 42 | MIN 8, LAA 7: Twins Squeak Out Victory Game 43 | MIN 11, SEA 6: Total System Failure (for the Other Guys) Game 44 | MIN 7, SEA 1: Venezuelan Night in Seattle Game 45 | MIN 18, SEA 4: Sharks Eat Mariners Game 46 | SEA 7, MIN 4: Sweepless in Seattle
  2. It's a fair point. Tom's recap on Sunday was eye-opening in this regard. But I still can't quite bring myself to the point of being worried about this club's run-scoring capability.
  3. With a sweep in Toronto and a split at home against Detroit, the Twins delivered another winning week and built upon their lead in the AL Central. Below the fold, we'll unpack another week filled with strong hitting and pitching performances. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/6 through Sun, 5/12 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 25-14) Run Differential Last Week: +26 (Overall: +51) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.0 GA) Willians Watch: 1-for-5 last week (Season AVG: .315) Willians Astudillo is back! He was activated from the disabled list on Sunday and batted leadoff in his return. Meanwhile, Tyler Duffey (called up for Saturday's doubleheader) and Fernando Romero were sent back to Triple-A over the weekend. It's unfortunate because both have shown some nice signs (especially Romero, firing four scoreless innings with a 15% swinging strike rate in his past four appearances), but both will see more chances soon enough. HIGHLIGHTS As we reach the quarterpole in the MLB season, Minnesota has two players creating legitimate noise as MVP candidates. The case for Jorge Polanco thus far is easy to see. After another stellar week (11-for-26 with two home runs and three doubles), Polanco is hitting .324/.393/.607 ranks second only to Mike Trout in the AL with 2.1 WAR. Polanco's K/BB ratio is among the best in the league and he's hitting for incredible power. Best of all, he's doing it as a SHORTSTOP who holds his own defensively. It's a little tougher to make an MVP-pace argument for Mitch Garver, mainly because his playing time doesn't quite stack up. Splitting reps in a three-way catcher committee, Garver has fewer than half the plate appearances of Polanco. Yet in that time, he has produced more home runs (8 to 7) and nearly the same RBI total (16 to 17). We keep waiting for his seemingly unsustainable start to slow down, but week after week, Garver stays on fire. This last one was no exception: he went 6-for-13 with two more homers and six walks. Among American League players with 75+ PA, no one has a higher OPS than Garver (1.214). Assuming this optimism proves valid, it looks like the Twins dodged a bullet with their top pitching prospect, who has held opponents to a .168 average through his first 38 innings at Double-A. LOOKING AHEAD Another seven-game week lies ahead, with the Twins first hosting Trout and the Angels, then traveling to Seattle for four games against the Mariners. MONDAY, 5/13: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Tyler Skaggs v. RHP Jose Berrios TUESDAY, 5/14: ANGELS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Kyle Gibson WEDNESDAY, 5/15: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Trevor Cahill v. RHP Jake Odorizzi THURSDAY, 5/16: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Erik Swanson FRIDAY, 5/17: TWINS @ MARINERS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Felix Hernandez SATURDAY, 5/18: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Marco Gonzales SUNDAY, 5/19: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Yusei Kikuchi Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 33 | MIN 8, TOR 0: Perez Impresses, Bats Bounce Stroman EarlyGame 34 | MIN 3, TOR 0: Berrios Hurls Gem, Twins Get Second Straight ShutoutGame 35 | MIN 9, TOR 1: Twins Steamroll TorontoGame 36 | MIN 6, DET 0: Odorizzi Deals (Again), Twins Win Fourth in a RowGame 37 | DET 5, MIN 3: Tigers Out-Tater Twins, Gardy Gets TossedGame 38 | MIN 8, DET 3: Now Witness the FirepowerGame 39 | DET 5, MIN 3: We Have a Problem Click here to view the article
  4. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/6 through Sun, 5/12 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 25-14) Run Differential Last Week: +26 (Overall: +51) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.0 GA) Willians Watch: 1-for-5 last week (Season AVG: .315) Willians Astudillo is back! He was activated from the disabled list on Sunday and batted leadoff in his return. Meanwhile, Tyler Duffey (called up for Saturday's doubleheader) and Fernando Romero were sent back to Triple-A over the weekend. It's unfortunate because both have shown some nice signs (especially Romero, firing four scoreless innings with a 15% swinging strike rate in his past four appearances), but both will see more chances soon enough. HIGHLIGHTS As we reach the quarterpole in the MLB season, Minnesota has two players creating legitimate noise as MVP candidates. The case for Jorge Polanco thus far is easy to see. After another stellar week (11-for-26 with two home runs and three doubles), Polanco is hitting .324/.393/.607 ranks second only to Mike Trout in the AL with 2.1 WAR. Polanco's K/BB ratio is among the best in the league and he's hitting for incredible power. Best of all, he's doing it as a SHORTSTOP who holds his own defensively. It's a little tougher to make an MVP-pace argument for Mitch Garver, mainly because his playing time doesn't quite stack up. Splitting reps in a three-way catcher committee, Garver has fewer than half the plate appearances of Polanco. Yet in that time, he has produced more home runs (8 to 7) and nearly the same RBI total (16 to 17). We keep waiting for his seemingly unsustainable start to slow down, but week after week, Garver stays on fire. This last one was no exception: he went 6-for-13 with two more homers and six walks. Among American League players with 75+ PA, no one has a higher OPS than Garver (1.214). https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1127020004589830149 There's little doubt the catcher is going to cool off at some point – maybe in a big way – but that's no knock against him. There's just no credible reason to believe he can keep up this Barry Bonds impression for long. But Garver has erased any semblance of doubt surrounding the legitimacy of his bat, while showing clear improvement behind the plate as well. And it's nice to know that should he fall into a slump, the Twins have Jason Castro (4-for-7 with two home runs last week, and slugging 1.000 in his past nine games) and Astudillo bringing his .870 OPS off the Injured List on Sunday. If you could lump all of Minnesota's catchers into one player (Masians Castrudiller?), he'd be the runaway MVP frontrunner without question. Those backstops continue linking up with Twins starting pitchers to produce amazing results. On Tuesday, Jose Berrios fired seven shutout innings in Toronto to pick up his sixth win and seventh quality start in eight turns. He's completed six or more innings in every outing. Fresh off earning Player of the Week honors, Jake Odorizzi extended his scoreless streak to 20 innings on Friday with seven near-perfect frames against the Tigers. Martin Perez was excellent in his first turn (7 IP, 0 R vs. TOR) and solid in his second (5 IP, 3 R vs. DET). He has a 2.13 ERA in six starts for the Twins. Even the previous rotation laggards are starting to join the fun. Kyle Gibson struck out 11 and notched 19 swinging strikes in a dominant showing versus Toronto on Wednesday. Suddenly he's got a 2.25 ERA and 28-to-3 K/BB ratio over 24 innings in his past four starts, resembling the overpowering force he was for much of last year. Michael Pineda still doesn't look all that sharp, but he logged a quality start on Saturday with three runs allowed over six innings. In 39 frames, Pineda has struck out 35 and walked nine. Egregious home run rate aside, there's plenty of underlying positivity in his early output coming off Tommy John surgery. A couple other strong performances from the past week worth highlighting: C.J. Cron, who'd been one of the lineup's weakest producers, turned that around in a big way with a pair of four-hit games and three homers. He now has nine bombs in the books, which is more than his predecessor at first base (Joe Mauer) managed in either of the past two seasons. Ryne Harper chipped in three more clean outings, allowing only one hit in 3 2/3 with a walk and four strikeouts. The 30-year-old rookie has made 15 appearances this year, and 14 have been scoreless. What a wonderful story. LOWLIGHTS Last week in this space, I expressed some concern over Trevor Hildenberger and his sudden vulnerability, noting that his usage had dissipated as his results had taken a downward turn. Seven days later, those concerns are only louder. He coughed up two runs on three hits in one inning against Detroit on Saturday, and then did the same on Sunday, this time with a more costly impact (his two runs allowed were the difference in the game). Throughout most of April, Hildenberger appeared to have re-established himself as one of Minnesota's most reliable late-inning arms, but now he has fallen right back into the rut that plagued his second half in 2018. In his past seven appearances Hildy has surrendered 10 earned runs on 14 hits in six frames. He's a complete mess, and the Twins can't afford to stick with him much longer at this rate. The 28-year-old does have options left, so a move to Triple-A is in play. On the bright side, there really aren't any other poor performances worth calling out from the past week – a huge credit to the comprehensively high-quality play we continue to see from this roster. TRENDING STORYLINE For a third straight week, Miguel Sano is grabbing out attention. First he was preparing to start his rehab stint, then it was officially underway, and now he's on the verge of wrapping it up. Sano moved up to Class-AAA Rochester over the weekend after a brief stay at Pensacola. He went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his first game for the Red Wings, but bounced back with a 2-for-4 effort (plus a walk) on Sunday. Barring any setbacks, I suspect we'll see Sano recalled during the coming week. It'll be interesting to see who's moved to make room. The likeliest candidate seems to be Ehire Adrianza, who's been woefully unproductive. Then again, maybe the issue takes care of itself, as Nelson Cruz could be headed for the shelf with a wrist injury that knocked him out of Sunday's game. At this moment, I'm even more curious about another Triple-A rehab stint. Reliever Addison Reed is on the road back after missing the first month with a "left thumb injury," and has looked utterly terrible in Triple-A, just as he did in spring training, and just as he did for much of last summer. In three appearances for Rochester, he has coughed up four runs on eight hits over three innings of work, striking out two of 17 batters faced. Where to go from here? There's no way the Twins can add Reed back to the roster. Stashing him on IL for a month with a vague non-throwing hand issue was already a bit of a stretch, but now they're running out of places to hide him. It's unfortunate, because a peak-level Reed would be such a huge difference-maker for this Minnesota bullpen, but that player is clearly long gone. At this point I think the Twins have no choice but to cut their losses and designate him for assignment, eating millions in remaining salary. For now, Reed still has a couple weeks left in his rehab window. DOWN ON THE FARM On July 31st of last year, the Twins traded longtime stalwart Brian Dozier to the Dodgers, in exchange for what appeared to be a modest return. Dozier was trudging through a disappointing season, slashing just .227/.307/.405 for Minnesota, and was just two months from free agency. The Twins had no hope of prying any top prospects, but they procured a couple of intriguing pieces from LA in outfielder Luke Raley and left-hander Devin Smeltzer. Well, Dozier's struggles only worsened down the stretch as he batted .182/.300/.350 over 47 games and barely saw any time in the postseason. Over the winter, he signed a one-year deal with the Nationals, but in Washington it's been much of the same: Dozier's slash line sits at .197/.301/.331 through 38 games. (His Twins replacement at second, Jonathan Schoop, is at .276/.324/.504.) Meanwhile, Raley is mashing at Rochester, where he's 14-for-33 in the month of May and sporting a .299/.364/.542 line overall. He's still not going to sprout up on any top prospect lists but the 24-year-old lefty swinger is solidifying himself as viable MLB-ready depth. In Triple-A, he's mostly played right field with a little center mixed in. Smeltzer is an even more compelling case. There was no significant buzz around him as a middling southpaw coming out of the Dodgers system, but ever since joining the Twins organization he has been completely lights-out. In 42 innings at Double-A, between the end of last year and the start of this one, he posted a 1.29 ERA and 49-to-5 K/BB ratio. He moved up Rochester at the beginning of May and has somehow gotten better, hurling 15 shutout innings with only seven hits allowed. I'm not sure what to make of him. You watch the guy pitch and you aren't wowed by his velocity or stuff, but the superlative results are eye-popping, and he's doing it consistently at the highest levels of the minors. Smeltzer, 23, isn't currently on the 40-man roster, but is putting himself in line to get a chance when the need arises. One more pitching note from the minors: Brusdar Graterol was in the middle of another stellar outing on Wednesday, with 5 1/3 scoreless innings logged, when he was pulled from the game due to an apparent injury. This understandably caused instant panic to sweep through Twins Territory, but Darren Wolfson of KSTP swooped in quickly with a relieving report: https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/1126181293824278528 Assuming this optimism proves valid, it looks like the Twins dodged a bullet with their top pitching prospect, who has held opponents to a .168 average through his first 38 innings at Double-A. LOOKING AHEAD Another seven-game week lies ahead, with the Twins first hosting Trout and the Angels, then traveling to Seattle for four games against the Mariners. MONDAY, 5/13: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Tyler Skaggs v. RHP Jose Berrios TUESDAY, 5/14: ANGELS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Kyle Gibson WEDNESDAY, 5/15: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Trevor Cahill v. RHP Jake Odorizzi THURSDAY, 5/16: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Erik Swanson FRIDAY, 5/17: TWINS @ MARINERS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Felix Hernandez SATURDAY, 5/18: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Marco Gonzales SUNDAY, 5/19: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Yusei Kikuchi Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 33 | MIN 8, TOR 0: Perez Impresses, Bats Bounce Stroman Early Game 34 | MIN 3, TOR 0: Berrios Hurls Gem, Twins Get Second Straight Shutout Game 35 | MIN 9, TOR 1: Twins Steamroll Toronto Game 36 | MIN 6, DET 0: Odorizzi Deals (Again), Twins Win Fourth in a Row Game 37 | DET 5, MIN 3: Tigers Out-Tater Twins, Gardy Gets Tossed Game 38 | MIN 8, DET 3: Now Witness the Firepower Game 39 | DET 5, MIN 3: We Have a Problem
  5. I dunno. When you still have an 800+ OPS coming off an 0-for-28 stretch it says a lot about how hot you were beforehand. And his cold streak hasn't been very "convincing" to me, as it's included a 3-to-2 K/BB ratio and plenty of bad-luck hard-hit balls. Personally I think Rosario's overall production by the end of the year will vastly overshadow any previous benchmarks.
  6. Pitchers and catchers led the way as Minnesota tackled a challenging slate with gusto, winning three of four from the Astros at home and even managing to take a game at Yankee Stadium. Another winning week serves as further evidence the Twins are very much legit contenders in the American League. Let's dig into the details. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/29 through Sun, 5/5 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 20-12) Run Differential Last Week: +0 (Overall: +25) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA) Willians Watch: DNP last week :-( Quick housekeeping: Adalberto Mejia was placed on IL with a calf injury following a brutal outing in Tuesday's loss. Replacing him (and newly added to the 40-man roster) is Mike Morin, who looked solid in his Twins debut at Yankee Stadium on Friday, allowing one run on a solo homer in two innings but striking out three. Meanwhile, our guy Willians Astudillo remains sidelined, but he's eligible to return this week! HIGHLIGHTS Last year, Twins catchers posted a collective .675 OPS, which sounds pretty bad but actually ranked right in the middle of the MLB pack, tied for 15th. One just can't expect much offensive production from the position. Right? Don't tell that to Jason Castro and Mitch Garver, who've been lighting things up through the first month. The duo has helped vault Minnesota to the top of this year's AL ranks for catcher OPS, at an astonishing 1.084, and both were instrumental in the team's success this past week. Castro played a big role in Thursday's series-clinching win against Houston, putting Minnesota on the board with a home run in his first at-bat amidst a four-RBI day. The previous week he'd also homered against his former team. On Saturday in New York, it was Garver opening up the scoring with a two-run blast – his sixth of the season already. Last year when he was named Twins Daily's top rookie, mostly because of his impressive work with the bat, he hit seven home runs in 335 plate appearances. It's easy to get lost in the shuffle of so many strong offensive starts, but Garver's early improvements on both sides have been astounding. Speaking of astounding improvements, the ones we're seeing from Martin Perez have potential to be transformative for the Twins rotation. Following three impressive performances out of the gate as a starter, the lefty took it to another level on Wednesday, firing eight shutout innings against an Astros offense that ranks among the league's best. He now has a 2.08 ERA through four turns in the rotation. Perez's newfound superlativeness owes to several factors: better health, a pumped-up fastball buzzing in at 94 MPH on average, vastly superior control (he's throwing 67% strikes and averaging 1.7 BB/9 as a starter; last year those figures were at 62% and 3.8). But the biggest driver may be a cutter that's replaced his slider and become a HEAVILY utilized (35%) offering: Obviously, it's foolish to draw any substantive conclusions about a tiny sample from a 25-year-old in the minors. Sano has played only four games. But in those games, he has already blasted two home runs, which matches his total from a 23-game, 94-PA, five-week stretch in Fort Myers and Rochester last summer. He slugged .410 over the course of that midseason demotion. His lack of dominance against younger, less experienced minor-league pitchers was another clear sign that Sano just was not right, and so it was unsurprising he continued to look underwhelming upon being recalled. This year, no one could describe his early showing as a "lack of dominance." Very encouraging to see. Bringing his bat into the mix for a club that already leads baseball in slugging feels like an almost ridiculous proposition. Sano figures to replace Marwin Gonzalez, who is the only Twins regular slugging below .433. DOWN ON THE FARM Even beyond Sano, it was a week of big returns in the minors. On Thursday, Twins Daily's #2 prospect Alex Kirilloff finally joined the Pensacola lineup after missing the first month with a wrist injury. He's 4-for-13 through his first four games. On the same day, #11 prospect Nick Gordon made his season debut for Rochester, collecting three hits and then adding three doubles in his next two games. If the mission is to quickly put that nightmarish 2018 campaign behind him, so far so good. Getting back these two heralded prospects will hopefully provide a jolt for a position-player group in the system that's been surprisingly quiet thus far. Here's what the hitters among Twins Daily's preseason Top 10, other than Kirilloff, have been able to accomplish through one month: Royce Lewis (#1): Hitting .227/.323/.273 with zero home runs at Fort Myers after hitting 14 last yearTrevor Larnach (#4): HItting .279/.325/.369 with zero home runs 28 games at Fort Myers, belying his power profileWander Javier (#5): Still in extended spring trainingBrent Rooker (#6): Hitting .210/.269/.484 with five home runs in Rochester, but striking out in 45% (!) of PAsAkil Baddoo (#1): Hitting .208/.292/.416 at Fort MyersOn the flipside, we continue to see plenty of positive developments on the pitching prospect front. Brusdar Graterol has a 2.23 ERA and .177 opponents' batting average at Pensacola. Devin Smeltzer, who'd been dominating alongside him in the Blue Wahoos rotation, moved up to Rochester last week and hurled seven shutout innings in his Red Wings debut on Friday. Jordan Balazovic, himself freshly promoted from Low-A to High-A, spun seven perfect innings with 10 strikeouts in his Miracle debut on Sunday. LOOKING AHEAD As a testament to their consistent play this year, the Twins have lost only four series so far this season. And only one of those can you definitively say they *should have* won. It was their four-gamer against Toronto at home back in mid-April. Now they'll have a chance to go on the road and avenge it, in another ballpark where they haven't fared particularly well. Then, the Twins return home for a weekend series against the Tigers, including a makeup doubleheader on Saturday. MONDAY, 5/6: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Marcus Stroman TUESDAY, 5/7: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Aaron Sanchez WEDNESDAY, 5/8: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Trent Thornton FRIDAY, 5/10: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Spencer Turnbull v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SATURDAY, 5/11 (1): TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Michael Pineda SATURDAY, 5/11 (2): TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Martin Perez SUNDAY, 5/12: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Daniel Norris v. RHP Jose Berrios Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 26 | MIN 1, HOU 0: Let’s Go CrazyGame 27 | HOU 11, MIN 0: Completely DominatedGame 28 | MIN 6, HOU 2: MARTIN! MARTIN! MARTIN!Game 29 | MIN 8, HOU 2: Twins Win! Take Season Series vs Astros!Game 30 | NYY 6, MIN 3: All Too Familiar at Yankee StadiumGame 31 | MIN 7, NYY 3: Curse ThisGame 32 | NYY 4, MIN 1: Twins Fizzle, Bronx Drizzles Click here to view the article
  7. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/29 through Sun, 5/5 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 20-12) Run Differential Last Week: +0 (Overall: +25) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA) Willians Watch: DNP last week :-( Quick housekeeping: Adalberto Mejia was placed on IL with a calf injury following a brutal outing in Tuesday's loss. Replacing him (and newly added to the 40-man roster) is Mike Morin, who looked solid in his Twins debut at Yankee Stadium on Friday, allowing one run on a solo homer in two innings but striking out three. Meanwhile, our guy Willians Astudillo remains sidelined, but he's eligible to return this week! HIGHLIGHTS Last year, Twins catchers posted a collective .675 OPS, which sounds pretty bad but actually ranked right in the middle of the MLB pack, tied for 15th. One just can't expect much offensive production from the position. Right? Don't tell that to Jason Castro and Mitch Garver, who've been lighting things up through the first month. The duo has helped vault Minnesota to the top of this year's AL ranks for catcher OPS, at an astonishing 1.084, and both were instrumental in the team's success this past week. Castro played a big role in Thursday's series-clinching win against Houston, putting Minnesota on the board with a home run in his first at-bat amidst a four-RBI day. The previous week he'd also homered against his former team. On Saturday in New York, it was Garver opening up the scoring with a two-run blast – his sixth of the season already. Last year when he was named Twins Daily's top rookie, mostly because of his impressive work with the bat, he hit seven home runs in 335 plate appearances. It's easy to get lost in the shuffle of so many strong offensive starts, but Garver's early improvements on both sides have been astounding. Speaking of astounding improvements, the ones we're seeing from Martin Perez have potential to be transformative for the Twins rotation. Following three impressive performances out of the gate as a starter, the lefty took it to another level on Wednesday, firing eight shutout innings against an Astros offense that ranks among the league's best. He now has a 2.08 ERA through four turns in the rotation. Perez's newfound superlativeness owes to several factors: better health, a pumped-up fastball buzzing in at 94 MPH on average, vastly superior control (he's throwing 67% strikes and averaging 1.7 BB/9 as a starter; last year those figures were at 62% and 3.8). But the biggest driver may be a cutter that's replaced his slider and become a HEAVILY utilized (35%) offering: https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1124000680677715972 The Twins took a chance on a guy who posted a 6.22 ERA while yielding a 329/.389/.527 hitting line in Texas last year, and it's paying off bigtime. Especially when you keep in mind that he's only 28 and his contract includes a $7.5 million club option for 2019. Perez isn't the only pitcher who has Minnesota's front office looking savvy. Jake Odorizzi turned in two stellar performances against top-tier offenses last week, holding the Astros and Yankees scoreless on six hits over 13 innings and improving his ERA to a team-leading 2.78 in the process. Odorizzi is averaging a strikeout per inning with a 13% whiff rate, and what's been most remarkable is the way he's completely flipped his greatest weakness upside-down. By the end of his tenure in Tampa, Odorizzi was obscenely homer-prone – part of the reason the Rays traded him for minimal return. In 2017 he surrendered 30 bombs in 143 innings, and that carried over last year to Minnesota where he coughed up 14 through 63 innings in April and May. At that very point in time, a switch just flipped. He allowed no home runs in June, and only six total the rest of the way. This year, he has given up two long balls in seven starts, despite facing the Phillies, the Astros (twice) and the Yankees. I mean, look at this ridiculous split: Odorizzi, start of 2017 through May 2018: 40 GS, 206 IP, 44 HR (1.9 HR/9) Odorizzi, June 2018 through present: 27 GS, 136 IP, 8 HR (0.5 HR/9) It seems unfathomable he could continue to avoid home runs at an elite rate as a fly ball pitcher who throws so many high fastballs, but he just keeps on doing it. In case you were wondering about the prospect they traded to Tampa for him, Jermaine Palacios is slashing .160/.236/.200 at Class-AA Montgomery after posting a .575 OPS between Single-A and Double-A last year. Like I said, the front office is lookin' pretty good these days. LOWLIGHTS From red-hot to ice-cold: Eddie Rosario has been slumping badly of late, with a hitless stretch extending to 28 plate appearances before he finally snapped it on Saturday. So it goes for the streaky slugger, who had registered an OPS north of 1.200 in 15 games prior to the outage. As I shared in one of the first Week in Review columns this year when discussing Rosario's mini-slump to open the season: "I've come to learn that any drought in production for Eddie is usually the precedent for a scorching hot streak." He followed by hitting eight home runs in his next 10 games. Take that as you will. While Perez and Odorizzi have emerged alongside Jose Berrios atop the Twins rotation, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda have had a harder time distinguishing themselves. Gibson took the L in New York on Friday, although poor defense played a big part. Three of the five runs he allowed in five innings were unearned. But the fact remains: Gibby has yet to deliver a quality start against a non-Baltimore opponent. At least Gibson feels headed in the right direction. The struggles of Pineda are more troubling. Since opening the season with a trio of strong efforts, the big right-hander has been totally ineffective, with an 8.53 ERA over 19 innings in four starts. He hasn't completed six innings in any of those outings, with his control eroding and gopherballs piling up. On the bright side, Pineda did notch eight strikeouts and 18 swinging strikes against the Yankees on Sunday – both season highs. The quality of his stuff, along with the circumstance of re-acclimating to the major-league mound after 17 months away from it, makes me inclined to show continued patience. In the bullpen, Trevor Hildenberger had a really rough week. He made two appearances and allowed two runs on three hits in each, though thankfully the Twins had large leads in both cases. Rocco Baldelli has noticeably eased up on Hildy's usage, with only three appearances in the last 12 days after calling upon him a dozen times through Minnesota's first 21 games. TRENDING STORYLINE Miguel Sano's comeback is officially in motion. He got his rehab stint underway on Tuesday in Fort Myers, though he didn't stay there long; after going 4-for-4 with a home run in his second game for the Miracle, he was quickly moved up to Double-A. Sano wasted no time getting acclimated in Pensacola, where he launched a prodigious three-run bomb in his first at-bat on Sunday: https://twitter.com/BlueWahoosBBall/status/1125116147538509827 Obviously, it's foolish to draw any substantive conclusions about a tiny sample from a 25-year-old in the minors. Sano has played only four games. But in those games, he has already blasted two home runs, which matches his total from a 23-game, 94-PA, five-week stretch in Fort Myers and Rochester last summer. He slugged .410 over the course of that midseason demotion. His lack of dominance against younger, less experienced minor-league pitchers was another clear sign that Sano just was not right, and so it was unsurprising he continued to look underwhelming upon being recalled. This year, no one could describe his early showing as a "lack of dominance." Very encouraging to see. Bringing his bat into the mix for a club that already leads baseball in slugging feels like an almost ridiculous proposition. Sano figures to replace Marwin Gonzalez, who is the only Twins regular slugging below .433. DOWN ON THE FARM Even beyond Sano, it was a week of big returns in the minors. On Thursday, Twins Daily's #2 prospect Alex Kirilloff finally joined the Pensacola lineup after missing the first month with a wrist injury. He's 4-for-13 through his first four games. On the same day, #11 prospect Nick Gordon made his season debut for Rochester, collecting three hits and then adding three doubles in his next two games. If the mission is to quickly put that nightmarish 2018 campaign behind him, so far so good. Getting back these two heralded prospects will hopefully provide a jolt for a position-player group in the system that's been surprisingly quiet thus far. Here's what the hitters among Twins Daily's preseason Top 10, other than Kirilloff, have been able to accomplish through one month: Royce Lewis (#1): Hitting .227/.323/.273 with zero home runs at Fort Myers after hitting 14 last year Trevor Larnach (#4): HItting .279/.325/.369 with zero home runs 28 games at Fort Myers, belying his power profile Wander Javier (#5): Still in extended spring training Brent Rooker (#6): Hitting .210/.269/.484 with five home runs in Rochester, but striking out in 45% (!) of PAs Akil Baddoo (#1): Hitting .208/.292/.416 at Fort Myers On the flipside, we continue to see plenty of positive developments on the pitching prospect front. Brusdar Graterol has a 2.23 ERA and .177 opponents' batting average at Pensacola. Devin Smeltzer, who'd been dominating alongside him in the Blue Wahoos rotation, moved up to Rochester last week and hurled seven shutout innings in his Red Wings debut on Friday. Jordan Balazovic, himself freshly promoted from Low-A to High-A, spun seven perfect innings with 10 strikeouts in his Miracle debut on Sunday. LOOKING AHEAD As a testament to their consistent play this year, the Twins have lost only four series so far this season. And only one of those can you definitively say they *should have* won. It was their four-gamer against Toronto at home back in mid-April. Now they'll have a chance to go on the road and avenge it, in another ballpark where they haven't fared particularly well. Then, the Twins return home for a weekend series against the Tigers, including a makeup doubleheader on Saturday. MONDAY, 5/6: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Marcus Stroman TUESDAY, 5/7: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Aaron Sanchez WEDNESDAY, 5/8: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Trent Thornton FRIDAY, 5/10: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Spencer Turnbull v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SATURDAY, 5/11 (1): TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Michael Pineda SATURDAY, 5/11 (2): TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Martin Perez SUNDAY, 5/12: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Daniel Norris v. RHP Jose Berrios Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 26 | MIN 1, HOU 0: Let’s Go Crazy Game 27 | HOU 11, MIN 0: Completely Dominated Game 28 | MIN 6, HOU 2: MARTIN! MARTIN! MARTIN! Game 29 | MIN 8, HOU 2: Twins Win! Take Season Series vs Astros! Game 30 | NYY 6, MIN 3: All Too Familiar at Yankee Stadium Game 31 | MIN 7, NYY 3: Curse This Game 32 | NYY 4, MIN 1: Twins Fizzle, Bronx Drizzles
  8. The title of last week's column, Bounceback in Baltimore, could easily apply once again – although this time the Orioles were being swept here in Minneapolis, and the preceding series loss in Houston was less disappointing than the one at home against Toronto. All in all, it was another very encouraging and homer-happy week for the Twins, who find themselves with the second-best record in the American League, one month into the season. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/22 through Sun, 4/28 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 16-9) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +27) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA) Willians Watch: 5-for-21 last week (Season AVG: .295) We'll start with a rare bit of bad news: WILLIANS IS HURT! Our boy was enjoying a lovely week, with three hits in five at-bats, before pulling up with a strained hamstring in Saturday's game. Ths incident landed Astudillo on the injured list, so he'll be gone through the next week at least. Needless to say, we will strive keep you acutely aware of any developments on this vital front. The Twins should be okay without Astudillo for a while, but his absence will be felt in all of our hearts. HIGHLIGHTS Nelson Cruz is doing exactly what the Twins hired him to do: leading a ferocious offensive charge. After a quiet series in Houston, he launched two homers on Friday night at Target Field and added two more hits on Saturday, pushing his season's hitting line to .297/.402/.568 through week's end. Surrounding Cruz in the lineup with Jorge Polanco (7-for-26 with two homers last week) and Eddie Rosario (4-for-23 with two homers), Minnesota boasts a lethal 2-3-4 sequence with each hitter hanging around a 1.000 OPS. Toss in the occasional explosiveness of guys like Max Kepler and C.J. Cron, who combined for six home runs and eight RBIs against Baltimore, and you've got the most powerful lineup in baseball. Watching this group has been a real treat, and while the dynamic has undoubtedly been played up by an inordinate number of games against the punching-bag Orioles, this unit's prowess doesn't seem artificial in any way. Minnesota leads baseball in slugging by a fairly wide margin. There are no breaks in this relentless lineup for opposing pitchers. Just as you think you're escaping the torment, here's Jason Castro launching an upper-deck bomb, or Byron Buxton teeing off on the first pitch. We're seeing the fulfillment of this offense's incredible power-hitting potential, a phenomenon I've dubbed (in hashtag form): #SotaPop. Feel free to wear it out. On the pitching side, Martin Perez has shown well since moving into his customary role as a starter. The lefty allowed one run over six frames on Friday, his third six-inning effort in three tries after joining the rotation. Over those 18 IP, Perez has allowed 19 hits, six earned runs (3.00 ERA) and – most notably – only three walks. He issued nine free passes in three relief appearances prior. If Perez can throw the ball in the zone, he's going to be successful. The same seems to be true for Kyle Gibson, who reined in his command once again during a fantastic outing against Baltimore on Sunday, firing 70 of 105 pitches for strikes in seven innings of one-run ball. He's gotten himself right on track with back-to-back sterling efforts against the O's, notching 12 strikeouts with zero walks over 13 innings in a pair of victories. Meanwhile, it was more of the same from Jose Berrios, who tallied his third straight win on Saturday with his fifth quality start in six turns. Consistency was his goal this year, and so far the right-hander has made it a reality. Through six starts he is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He entered play on Sunday ranked ninth among all MLB pitchers in WAR, per FanGraphs. LOWLIGHTS When Marwin Gonzalez homered in his fourth at-bat on Saturday, it was his first hit of the week, ending an 0-for-18 slump that has mostly been reflective of his season at large. Outside of that eighth-inning bomb against the Orioles, and a two-run knock on Sunday, the newly signed free agent's production has been scant ever since his big two-run double on Opening Day. Gonzalez has a history of starting slow, but this is new territory. Last year at this time he was already in the process of heating up and shaking off his cold start, which wasn't nearly as cold by comparison. His current .520 OPS is more than 200 points off his career mark. There's a lengthy track record here, and Gonzalez's K/BB rates aren't drastically out of line, so it's too soon to panic. He hasn't looked great, but he's also plagued by an almost impossibly low .192 BABIP. I'm still fairly confident that as the weather heats up and his luck evens out, he'll come around. And it says an awful lot that a player as accomplished as Marwin is really the only hole in the Twins lineup at present. Neither Michael Pineda nor Kohl Stewart fared all that well in Houston, but it's tough to hold against them considering the setting and circumstances. In Stewart's case, the unexceptional effort was almost commendable – he came straight up from Triple-A to face arguably the toughest lineup in the majors, in a bandbox, and lasted through six innings (albeit with five runs allowed). It wasn't pretty but he kept the Twins in the game, outlasting both Pineda and Jake Odorizzi from the previous nights. All in all, there's not much to quibble with among individual performers over the past week. In what is becoming a theme, the Twins did what they needed to, and so did most of their players. TRENDING STORYLINE With Gonzalez scuffling, attention grows around Miguel Sano's return. The Twins had originally projected a May ETA, and in line with that forecast, the slugger is slated to start his rehab assignment on Tuesday. He'll start out in Class-A Fort Myers before moving up to Triple-A Rochester once the Twins feel he's ready. Presumably the Twins will take it slow with the third baseman, who is far removed from being an impactful contributor at the big-league level. We know that capability resides within him, and if Sano can show any semblance of the player he was before things turned south, it goes without saying how scary his addition will be for a lineup that's already out-slugging the league. He has a 20-day rehab window, which the Twins figure to fully utilize. The soonest we're likely to see him in Minnesota is in three weeks or so. DOWN ON THE FARM During spring training, Lewis Thorpe was one pitcher being propped up by Twins officials as a potential difference-maker this summer. The hype was warranted, given his stellar numbers between Double-A and Triple-A last season, but he came out of the gates flat in Rochester, yielding 15 earned runs on 17 hits in in 8 2/3 innings over his first two starts. Whether he made adjustments or simply shook off the rust, Thorpe has been a radically different animal in his last two turns. Following an eight-inning, one run, 12-K masterpiece last Tuesday, he has notched 24 strikeouts with one walk and seven hits allowed in 13 2/3 innings. That includes an incredible 38 swinging strikes on 189 pitches (20%). Thorpe still has a 7.25 ERA overall, owing to his horrendous start, but if he can maintain the form he's been showing of late, he could become a factor for the Twins quickly. Not every top Twins prospect is rallying after a slow start, however – including THE top Twins prospect. At what point should we start worrying about Royce Lewis' season-opening slump as it continues to linger? After going 5-for-31 with no extra-base hits and no walks in Fort Myers last week, the shortstop's overall slash line now sits at .195/.297/.241. He has been a total non-factor offensively, and even on the basepaths his success has diminished, with five converted steal attempts in nine tries. On the bright side, Lewis has committed only one error through 19 games at short, and reports on that front have generally been positive. It seems fair to say his defense is more of a focus than his hitting at this point, so we'll take it. As a reminder, he doesn't turn 20 until June. There's nothing especially worrisome about struggles at High-A in that context, but it certainly throws some cold water on the idea of Lewis rocketing to the big leagues in short order following his outstanding 2018. LOOKING AHEAD It's very possible this is the toughest week the Twins will face all season long. First they'll be welcoming the elite Astros to Target Field for a four-game series, and then it's off to New York for a three-gamer against the dastardly Yanks. If Minnesota can come away from this seven-game gauntlet with three wins, they should be feeling pretty good. Anything more would be a coup. MONDAY, 4/29: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Justin Verlander v. RHP Jake Odorizzi TUESDAY, 4/30: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Gerrit Cole v. RHP Michael Pineda WEDNESDAY, 5/1: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Collin McHugh v. LHP Martin Perez THURSDAY, 5/2: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Brad Peacock v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 5/3: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP James Paxton SATURDAY, 5/4: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. LHP J.A. Happ SUNDAY, 5/5: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Domingo German Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 20 | MIN 9, HOU 5: Bats Thrive, Pitching SurvivesGame 21 | HOU 10, MIN 4: Springer and Bregman and Altuve... Oh My!Game 22 | HOU 7, MIN 1: Foregone ConclusionGame 23 | MIN 6, BAL 1: Sticking to the FormulaGame 24 | MIN 9, BAL 2: Quality from Berrios, Quantity from the BatsGame 25 | MIN 4, BAL 1: Kepler Sets Tone, Gibby Brings It Home Click here to view the article
  9. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/22 through Sun, 4/28 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 16-9) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +27) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA) Willians Watch: 5-for-21 last week (Season AVG: .295) We'll start with a rare bit of bad news: WILLIANS IS HURT! Our boy was enjoying a lovely week, with three hits in five at-bats, before pulling up with a strained hamstring in Saturday's game. Ths incident landed Astudillo on the injured list, so he'll be gone through the next week at least. Needless to say, we will strive keep you acutely aware of any developments on this vital front. The Twins should be okay without Astudillo for a while, but his absence will be felt in all of our hearts. HIGHLIGHTS Nelson Cruz is doing exactly what the Twins hired him to do: leading a ferocious offensive charge. After a quiet series in Houston, he launched two homers on Friday night at Target Field and added two more hits on Saturday, pushing his season's hitting line to .297/.402/.568 through week's end. Surrounding Cruz in the lineup with Jorge Polanco (7-for-26 with two homers last week) and Eddie Rosario (4-for-23 with two homers), Minnesota boasts a lethal 2-3-4 sequence with each hitter hanging around a 1.000 OPS. Toss in the occasional explosiveness of guys like Max Kepler and C.J. Cron, who combined for six home runs and eight RBIs against Baltimore, and you've got the most powerful lineup in baseball. Watching this group has been a real treat, and while the dynamic has undoubtedly been played up by an inordinate number of games against the punching-bag Orioles, this unit's prowess doesn't seem artificial in any way. Minnesota leads baseball in slugging by a fairly wide margin. There are no breaks in this relentless lineup for opposing pitchers. Just as you think you're escaping the torment, here's Jason Castro launching an upper-deck bomb, or Byron Buxton teeing off on the first pitch. We're seeing the fulfillment of this offense's incredible power-hitting potential, a phenomenon I've dubbed (in hashtag form): #SotaPop. Feel free to wear it out. On the pitching side, Martin Perez has shown well since moving into his customary role as a starter. The lefty allowed one run over six frames on Friday, his third six-inning effort in three tries after joining the rotation. Over those 18 IP, Perez has allowed 19 hits, six earned runs (3.00 ERA) and – most notably – only three walks. He issued nine free passes in three relief appearances prior. If Perez can throw the ball in the zone, he's going to be successful. The same seems to be true for Kyle Gibson, who reined in his command once again during a fantastic outing against Baltimore on Sunday, firing 70 of 105 pitches for strikes in seven innings of one-run ball. He's gotten himself right on track with back-to-back sterling efforts against the O's, notching 12 strikeouts with zero walks over 13 innings in a pair of victories. Meanwhile, it was more of the same from Jose Berrios, who tallied his third straight win on Saturday with his fifth quality start in six turns. Consistency was his goal this year, and so far the right-hander has made it a reality. Through six starts he is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He entered play on Sunday ranked ninth among all MLB pitchers in WAR, per FanGraphs. LOWLIGHTS When Marwin Gonzalez homered in his fourth at-bat on Saturday, it was his first hit of the week, ending an 0-for-18 slump that has mostly been reflective of his season at large. Outside of that eighth-inning bomb against the Orioles, and a two-run knock on Sunday, the newly signed free agent's production has been scant ever since his big two-run double on Opening Day. Gonzalez has a history of starting slow, but this is new territory. Last year at this time he was already in the process of heating up and shaking off his cold start, which wasn't nearly as cold by comparison. His current .520 OPS is more than 200 points off his career mark. There's a lengthy track record here, and Gonzalez's K/BB rates aren't drastically out of line, so it's too soon to panic. He hasn't looked great, but he's also plagued by an almost impossibly low .192 BABIP. I'm still fairly confident that as the weather heats up and his luck evens out, he'll come around. And it says an awful lot that a player as accomplished as Marwin is really the only hole in the Twins lineup at present. Neither Michael Pineda nor Kohl Stewart fared all that well in Houston, but it's tough to hold against them considering the setting and circumstances. In Stewart's case, the unexceptional effort was almost commendable – he came straight up from Triple-A to face arguably the toughest lineup in the majors, in a bandbox, and lasted through six innings (albeit with five runs allowed). It wasn't pretty but he kept the Twins in the game, outlasting both Pineda and Jake Odorizzi from the previous nights. All in all, there's not much to quibble with among individual performers over the past week. In what is becoming a theme, the Twins did what they needed to, and so did most of their players. TRENDING STORYLINE With Gonzalez scuffling, attention grows around Miguel Sano's return. The Twins had originally projected a May ETA, and in line with that forecast, the slugger is slated to start his rehab assignment on Tuesday. He'll start out in Class-A Fort Myers before moving up to Triple-A Rochester once the Twins feel he's ready. Presumably the Twins will take it slow with the third baseman, who is far removed from being an impactful contributor at the big-league level. We know that capability resides within him, and if Sano can show any semblance of the player he was before things turned south, it goes without saying how scary his addition will be for a lineup that's already out-slugging the league. He has a 20-day rehab window, which the Twins figure to fully utilize. The soonest we're likely to see him in Minnesota is in three weeks or so. DOWN ON THE FARM During spring training, Lewis Thorpe was one pitcher being propped up by Twins officials as a potential difference-maker this summer. The hype was warranted, given his stellar numbers between Double-A and Triple-A last season, but he came out of the gates flat in Rochester, yielding 15 earned runs on 17 hits in in 8 2/3 innings over his first two starts. Whether he made adjustments or simply shook off the rust, Thorpe has been a radically different animal in his last two turns. Following an eight-inning, one run, 12-K masterpiece last Tuesday, he has notched 24 strikeouts with one walk and seven hits allowed in 13 2/3 innings. That includes an incredible 38 swinging strikes on 189 pitches (20%). Thorpe still has a 7.25 ERA overall, owing to his horrendous start, but if he can maintain the form he's been showing of late, he could become a factor for the Twins quickly. Not every top Twins prospect is rallying after a slow start, however – including THE top Twins prospect. At what point should we start worrying about Royce Lewis' season-opening slump as it continues to linger? After going 5-for-31 with no extra-base hits and no walks in Fort Myers last week, the shortstop's overall slash line now sits at .195/.297/.241. He has been a total non-factor offensively, and even on the basepaths his success has diminished, with five converted steal attempts in nine tries. On the bright side, Lewis has committed only one error through 19 games at short, and reports on that front have generally been positive. It seems fair to say his defense is more of a focus than his hitting at this point, so we'll take it. As a reminder, he doesn't turn 20 until June. There's nothing especially worrisome about struggles at High-A in that context, but it certainly throws some cold water on the idea of Lewis rocketing to the big leagues in short order following his outstanding 2018. LOOKING AHEAD It's very possible this is the toughest week the Twins will face all season long. First they'll be welcoming the elite Astros to Target Field for a four-game series, and then it's off to New York for a three-gamer against the dastardly Yanks. If Minnesota can come away from this seven-game gauntlet with three wins, they should be feeling pretty good. Anything more would be a coup. MONDAY, 4/29: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Justin Verlander v. RHP Jake Odorizzi TUESDAY, 4/30: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Gerrit Cole v. RHP Michael Pineda WEDNESDAY, 5/1: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Collin McHugh v. LHP Martin Perez THURSDAY, 5/2: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Brad Peacock v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 5/3: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP James Paxton SATURDAY, 5/4: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. LHP J.A. Happ SUNDAY, 5/5: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Domingo German Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 20 | MIN 9, HOU 5: Bats Thrive, Pitching Survives Game 21 | HOU 10, MIN 4: Springer and Bregman and Altuve... Oh My! Game 22 | HOU 7, MIN 1: Foregone Conclusion Game 23 | MIN 6, BAL 1: Sticking to the Formula Game 24 | MIN 9, BAL 2: Quality from Berrios, Quantity from the Bats Game 25 | MIN 4, BAL 1: Kepler Sets Tone, Gibby Brings It Home
  10. I'll argue it. He wasn't "suddenly" lights out. This is a common misconception among Twins fans. In the 6 weeks leading up to that trade he was a beast for the Twins: 2.76 ERA, 24/7 K/BB, 19% swinging strike rate in 16 IP. He had a .222 opponents AVG even with a .342 BABIP. Yes, Pressly did take a step forward after going to Houston and ramping up the CB usage. But with the exception of a 3-outing stretch in June, he was lights-out for the Twins too. He had turned into the player they envisioned all along, and they dumped him. I'm not really sure what your argument is here. Alcala is like the Twins' #15 prospect so the idea of him becoming a "fringe all-star" seems quite the stretch. What we KNOW currently is that Pressly IS one of the most dominant relief arms in the league, at a time where the Twins could really use such an asset. Instead, he's playing for one of their primary competitors in the AL pennant race.
  11. What context am I missing? Obviously it's an unrealistic hypothetical because no one's going to reverse a trade one year later, but the core components remain the same: you're trading a guy who's, right now, one of the most dominant relief pitchers in the league, and controllable beyond the current season, for a couple of long-shot projects. It would've made sense if the Twins were going to be non-factors this year, or got back anything resembling a surefire prospect, or if they were committed to making an offseason addition that might fill Pressly's void, but none of those things were true.
  12. Preaching the choir, my friend. I still hear people say it was a good trade. My question: is there any chance you would NOT make the same deal in reverse today? (Sending out Alcala & Celestino for Pressly.) You do it in instant, right? Not a second thought. So how can we really call it a good trade?
  13. It's not a reaction to April. You might accuse it of being confirmation bias, but I don't think so. Many people (most?) were questioning this bullpen's ability to stack up as needed since before the season started. What we're seeing is very much expected, and the problem is real. Frankly, they've been bailed out so far by plentiful off-days, and Rogers/Hildy putting out fires. Failing to be proactive, and letting these things spiral without being addressed, is how a season can go off the rails.
  14. After being given the business at home by Toronto, the Minnesota Twins hit the road and handled their business, sweeping a bad Orioles team in Baltimore to salvage a winning week. Your full breakdown lies ahead. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/15 through Sun, 4/21 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 12-7) Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +20) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA) Willians Watch: 5-for-21 last week (Season AVG: .295) Outscoring their opponents by eight over the past seven days, the Twins now find themselves tied with Houston for the third-best run differential in the American League. Minnesota has spent 12 out of 25 days since the season started in first place. It was a positive week for Willians Watch, as La Tortuga delivered some big hits and – most importantly – saw plenty of playing time. Rocco Baldelli was quite creative in finding spots for the unconventional utilityman, who made appearances at four different positions (C, 1B, 3B, RF). More this, please. HIGHLIGHTS Last summer, as I put together these weekly recaps for Twins Daily, one practice became quite familiar: writing about Eddie Rosario in the "Highlights" section. It was a Sunday night tradition as reliable as pre-workweek dread. And Rosie has wasted no time resetting that routine here in 2019. Following a strong finish to the previous week, Rosario was simply unconscious against the Blue Jays and Orioles, going 8-for-30 with six home runs, a double and nine RBIs. At one point, he launched five homers over a span of 11 plate appearances, and seven over a span of 24. His monstrous performance during the doubleheader on Saturday was part of an 11-homer barrage by the Twins offense. Baltimore's pitching didn't navigate The Minefield very successfully. Through three starts at Pensacola, Graterol has allowed one run on seven hits in 17 1/3 innings. If things keep going this way, there's no telling how quickly he could become a factor in the majors. LOOKING AHEAD Orioles, Astros, Orioles, Astros. A weird quirk in the schedule (which have been plentiful early on) has the Twins alternating between these two opponents exclusively for a two-week period. It'll be interesting to see what they do on Wednesday; Jose Berrios was slated to start, but with Friday's rainout he'll be on three days rest. For the purpose of my probable listings below, I'm assuming the Twins slot in another starter (Mejia?) and push everyone else back a day. MONDAY, 4/22: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Brad Peacock TUESDAY, 4/23: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Michael Pineda v. LHP Wade Miley WEDNESDAY, 4/24: TWINS @ ASTROS – TBD v. RHP Justin Verlander FRIDAY, 4/26: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Dan Straily v. RHP Jose Berrios SATURDAY, 4/27: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Alex Cobb v. LHP Martin Perez SUNDAY, 4/28: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Kyle Gibson Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 13 | TOR 5, MIN 3: About That Bullpen ...Game 14 | TOR 6, MIN 5: Gut PunchGame 15 | MIN 4, TOR 1: Pitching Staff Redemption NightGame 16 | TOR 7, MIN 4: Rosario Homers Twice as Twins Drop Game, SeriesGame 17 | MIN 6, TOR 5: Super Rosario Stars as Twins Sweep DoubleheaderGame 18 | MIN 16, TOR 7: Super Rosario Stars as Twins Sweep DoubleheaderGame 19 | MIN 4, BAL 3: Gibby Good, Hildy Holds, Rogers Saves the Sweep Click here to view the article
  15. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/15 through Sun, 4/21 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 12-7) Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +20) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA) Willians Watch: 5-for-21 last week (Season AVG: .295) Outscoring their opponents by eight over the past seven days, the Twins now find themselves tied with Houston for the third-best run differential in the American League. Minnesota has spent 12 out of 25 days since the season started in first place. It was a positive week for Willians Watch, as La Tortuga delivered some big hits and – most importantly – saw plenty of playing time. Rocco Baldelli was quite creative in finding spots for the unconventional utilityman, who made appearances at four different positions (C, 1B, 3B, RF). More this, please. HIGHLIGHTS Last summer, as I put together these weekly recaps for Twins Daily, one practice became quite familiar: writing about Eddie Rosario in the "Highlights" section. It was a Sunday night tradition as reliable as pre-workweek dread. And Rosie has wasted no time resetting that routine here in 2019. Following a strong finish to the previous week, Rosario was simply unconscious against the Blue Jays and Orioles, going 8-for-30 with six home runs, a double and nine RBIs. At one point, he launched five homers over a span of 11 plate appearances, and seven over a span of 24. His monstrous performance during the doubleheader on Saturday was part of an 11-homer barrage by the Twins offense. Baltimore's pitching didn't navigate The Minefield very successfully. https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1119816467606904838 Others who enjoyed strong offensive weeks: C.J. Cron, who went 7-for-23 with a pair of homers and five RBIs, and has quickly pushed his OPS into the .800 range following a slow start Byron Buxton, who collected six hits, all of them doubles. His total of 12 now leads the majors Mitch Garver, who didn't see a ton of action (just two starts) but made the most of it with a double and two more home runs Jorge Polanco, who went 7-for-22 with a 3-to-5 K/BB ratio and finished the week with the fourth-best batting average in the American League (.362) Nelson Cruz, whose 7-for-24 owed mostly to a four-hit night on Saturday After his victorious outing on Wednesday, Jake Odorizzi gave an in-depth self-assessment to The Athletic's Dan Hayes. "I think I'm a lot more consistent with these first four starts, just from stuff-wise, not results-wise, than any point last year," the right-handed opined. It can be tough to explain away poor outcomes without sounding like you're making excuses, but I think Odorizzi hit the right notes. And his confidence is warranted: Through his first four turns, he has held opponents to a .172 average with a blistering 14% swinging strike rate. Those are outstanding numbers. Odorizzi's disastrous second start, on a cold and rainy night in New York, will inflate his overall numbers for a while. But if you take it away, he's got a 2.76 ERA and 20-to-6 K/BB ratio in 16 1/3 innings. He's generating whiffs at one of the highest rates in the league. If he can keep the bouts with control at bay, there's something special here. Monday's road date with the Astros presents a big test. The most notable performer in the bullpen was actually Ryne Harper, who pitched three times and allowed zero runs on three singles while recording 15 outs. He's fast changing his narrative from "good story" to "good reliever." LOWLIGHTS It was a rough week for the bullpen. The unit's questionable depth came into frontal focus on Monday night, when Adalberto Mejia entered in the eighth inning with Minnesota protecting a two-run lead, and completely bombed. The left-hander allowed four runs before recording his first out, effectively turning a win into a loss. Mejia is ostensibly slotted as more of a low-leverage long man in this pen, but Baldelli's hand was forced by necessity: Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers and Trevor May had all thrown 20-plus pitches the previous day, while Trevor Hildenberger was coming off appearances on consecutive days. But those types of situations are going to arise often, and the Twins need to be ready for them. They can ill afford to have a single reliever on the roster they can't trust. To his credit, Mejia bounced back with a solid scoreless outing two days later. Tuesday night featured another bullpen botching. After Rosario tied the game with an invigorating three-run bomb, May came on for the seventh and just couldn't throw strikes. He gave up a single and walked the bases loaded before giving way to Hildenberger, who's been thrown into some obscene pressure spots early on. This time Hildy couldn't bail the Twins out, as Teoscar Hernandez's two-run single was the difference-maker in another loss. Betraying the high expectations he set with a dazzling showing in 2018, May just hasn't looked right this year. His command seems to go amiss every other outing. Swinging strikes are way down. And to whatever extent body language matters, his hasn't really inspired confidence since the start of spring. Of course, this is a guy who had thrown 25 total innings in the past two years coming into 2019. Hopefully he just needs a little time to settle into his groove. There's no question that he's an absolutely critical factor in a successful turnaround for this relief corps. TRENDING STORYLINE For the foreseeable future, it seems likely the bullpen will be this team's most pressing issue – specifically, what the front office can do to bolster it. Fernando Romero wasn't overly impressive during his brief appearance on Saturday. Tyler Duffey (while intriguing) is probably not the answer for late-game leverage. The current IL members (Matt Magill, Addison Reed, Gabriel Moya) can't be counted on for much. If the Twins want to sustain in the division race, they absolutely must avoid leaning too hard on their top relievers early on, which means infusing more high-quality depth. Naturally, there is a continual fan focus on Craig Kimbrel, given his availability in free agency. I myself favor the idea of pursuing the trade market, where the Twins could procure a prime-aged player with multiple years of control on reasonable financial terms. Through savvy drafting and "sell" moves, Minnesota's front office has built up considerable prospect depth in the minors. If the Twins can acquire an equivalent talent to Ryan Pressly, for an equivalent price that Houston paid, they should be looking to make that move at least once. Granted, it's early for in-season dealing. But the landscape has never been better, with so many teams unabashed in their tanking intent. Indeed, reports are already arising that the hopelessly irrelevant Giants are open for business: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1119692807936053252 There are impact arms in that bullpen. Will Smith, Sam Dyson and Nick Vincent, to name a few. And as it happens, the Twins have already swung two trades with San Francisco in the last month (Michael Reed and Tyler Austin). One would hope Thad Levine is already getting on the horn. DOWN ON THE FARM For two members of this system's "Big Three," the 2019 season is off to a low-key start. Alex Kirilloff still hasn't played as he recovers from a wrist ailment, and Royce Lewis is hitting .214/.357/.286 at Fort Myers. But there's been nothing quiet about Brusdar Graterol's arrival at Double-A. The 20-year-old flamethrower was flat-out brilliant on Tuesday night, hurling seven shutout innings with one hit, one walk, and eight strikeouts. Our guy Tom (whose Twitter account is an absolute must-follow for any Twins fan on the platform) has the grisly highlights: https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1118680112847826946 Through three starts at Pensacola, Graterol has allowed one run on seven hits in 17 1/3 innings. If things keep going this way, there's no telling how quickly he could become a factor in the majors. LOOKING AHEAD Orioles, Astros, Orioles, Astros. A weird quirk in the schedule (which have been plentiful early on) has the Twins alternating between these two opponents exclusively for a two-week period. It'll be interesting to see what they do on Wednesday; Jose Berrios was slated to start, but with Friday's rainout he'll be on three days rest. For the purpose of my probable listings below, I'm assuming the Twins slot in another starter (Mejia?) and push everyone else back a day. MONDAY, 4/22: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Brad Peacock TUESDAY, 4/23: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Michael Pineda v. LHP Wade Miley WEDNESDAY, 4/24: TWINS @ ASTROS – TBD v. RHP Justin Verlander FRIDAY, 4/26: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Dan Straily v. RHP Jose Berrios SATURDAY, 4/27: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Alex Cobb v. LHP Martin Perez SUNDAY, 4/28: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Kyle Gibson Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 13 | TOR 5, MIN 3: About That Bullpen ... Game 14 | TOR 6, MIN 5: Gut Punch Game 15 | MIN 4, TOR 1: Pitching Staff Redemption Night Game 16 | TOR 7, MIN 4: Rosario Homers Twice as Twins Drop Game, Series Game 17 | MIN 6, TOR 5: Super Rosario Stars as Twins Sweep Doubleheader Game 18 | MIN 16, TOR 7: Super Rosario Stars as Twins Sweep Doubleheader Game 19 | MIN 4, BAL 3: Gibby Good, Hildy Holds, Rogers Saves the Sweep
  16. Now I'm envisioning a scenario in the movie where Thanos is killing off the entire universe methodically, and Captain America's sitting there staring at the phone like, "Should we call Kimbrel? I dunno... let's wait it out..." "Spider-Man just evaporated into thin air!" "That draft-pick comp tho..."
  17. Resiliency has been the story for these Minnesota Twins early on. Rough innings for pitchers tend to be answered by big innings from the bats. Players are picking each other up. Each loss has been followed by a win. In another short week that was further shortened by rain, the Twins showed plenty more fight. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/8 through Sun, 4/14 *** Record Last Week: 3-1 (Overall: 8-4) Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: +12) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.5 GA) Willians Watch: 1-for-9 last week (Season AVG: .348) It wasn't a big week for Willians Watch, as our boy collected just one hit in New York and then rode the bench for two games at Target Field, with another righty-swinging backstop stealing his thunder. Still, as of Sunday his .348 batting average ranked 10th among AL hitters with 25+ plate appearances. And it was a strong week for the rest of our trackers above, so let's dig in. HIGHLIGHTS With all the Willians Astudillo buzz, Mitch Garver might have been feeling a little slighted. Here's a guy who splashed onto the scene as a rookie in 2018, adapting quickly to MLB pitching and posting an .823 OPS in the second half of his 102 games. And yet, he found himself as an afterthought in the catching discussion this spring, with everyone going gaga for Tortuga. Through Minnesota's first seven games, Garver had drawn only two starts and 10 plate appearances. He got the nod on Tuesday in New York and made a hell of statement, launching home runs in each of his first two at-bats against the best pitcher in baseball. Jacob deGrom had surrendered only two long balls total in his previous 12 starts before Garver took him deep twice. (Eddie Rosario also chipped in one against the Mets ace amidst a sensational evening for the Twins lineup, and a sensational week for him – he went 7-for-16 with five RBIs.) Finishing the night with four hits, Garver followed on Wednesday with two more, including another home run – this time against elite closer Edwin Diaz. At week's end Garver finds himself with a .500/.522/1.045 slash line. The 28-year-old is just one of those many pieces that makes Minnesota's offensive potential so damn tantalizing. He's got his share of both established ability and ceiling, but is in a spot right now where he has to fight for ABs. There are multiple players on the team (including Mr. Astudillo) in a similar position, and that's a good hell of a good place to be in. After a ho-hum first seven games, Jonathan Schoop turned up the heat in a big way in The Big Apple, launching two home runs in the first game at Citi Field and then adding three hits in the second. We know Schoop is going to have his share of slumps and hacking spells (he went 0-for-7 back at Target Field over the weekend), but his potent presence lurking near the bottom of this order contributes to a minefield dynamic that makes the Twins a nightmare assignment for opposing hurlers. No one exemplifies the lineup's depth better than #9 hitter Byron Buxton, who continues to look very much like the star we've all long dreamed on. Starting all four games for the Twins last week, Buck went 6-for-15 (.400) with three doubles, a triple and another steal. The center fielder has been aggressive and effective, swinging at his pitches and driving them with authority. The tentativeness of 2018 is nowhere to be seen. Through 36 plate appearances on the season, Buxton has only eight strikeouts (22%). Oh, and on Sunday he reminded us he can do stuff like this: The Twins' vaunted minor-league bats have mostly been slow to go. Royce Lewis had his first multi-hit game on Sunday, raising his average at Fort Myers to .206 with a pair of singles, but he has offset his lack of hitting with tremendous discipline. Lewis sports a .404 OBP, thanks to a 12 walks (against only seven strikeouts) in 10 games. . Trevor Larnach's OPS with the Miracle sits at .666 even after he collected three knocks on Sunday. Brent Rooker has a ghastly 18-to-2 K/BB ratio in 40 plate appearances for Rochester. Alex Kirilloff remains sidelined, with little clarity on his return. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins have a full slate ahead next week, and as we've established, that's about to become the norm. They open with a four-game home set against the Blue Jays, who've historically tormented them at Target Field, before swinging out to Baltimore for three games against a very bad Orioles club. MONDAY, 4/15: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Matt Shoemaker v. RHP Martin Perez TUESDAY, 4/16: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Aaron Sanchez v. RHP Kyle Gibson WEDNESDAY, 4/17: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Trent Thornton v. LHP Jake Odorizzi THURSDAY, 4/18: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Clay Buchholz v. RHP Michael Pineda FRIDAY, 4/19: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP John Means SATURDAY, 4/20: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Martin Perez v. RHP Dan Straily SUNDAY, 4/21: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Kyle Gibson RHP Dylan Bundy Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 9 | MIN 14, NYM 8: Beating the BestGame 10 | NYM 9, MIN 6: Forever of a 5th InningGame 11 | MIN 4, DET 3: Bats Quiet, Bullpen Hangs OnGame 12 | MIN 6, DET 4: Berrios Figures It Out, Bullpen Barely Hangs On Click here to view the article
  18. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/8 through Sun, 4/14 *** Record Last Week: 3-1 (Overall: 8-4) Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: +12) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.5 GA) Willians Watch: 1-for-9 last week (Season AVG: .348) It wasn't a big week for Willians Watch, as our boy collected just one hit in New York and then rode the bench for two games at Target Field, with another righty-swinging backstop stealing his thunder. Still, as of Sunday his .348 batting average ranked 10th among AL hitters with 25+ plate appearances. And it was a strong week for the rest of our trackers above, so let's dig in. HIGHLIGHTS With all the Willians Astudillo buzz, Mitch Garver might have been feeling a little slighted. Here's a guy who splashed onto the scene as a rookie in 2018, adapting quickly to MLB pitching and posting an .823 OPS in the second half of his 102 games. And yet, he found himself as an afterthought in the catching discussion this spring, with everyone going gaga for Tortuga. Through Minnesota's first seven games, Garver had drawn only two starts and 10 plate appearances. He got the nod on Tuesday in New York and made a hell of statement, launching home runs in each of his first two at-bats against the best pitcher in baseball. Jacob deGrom had surrendered only two long balls total in his previous 12 starts before Garver took him deep twice. (Eddie Rosario also chipped in one against the Mets ace amidst a sensational evening for the Twins lineup, and a sensational week for him – he went 7-for-16 with five RBIs.) Finishing the night with four hits, Garver followed on Wednesday with two more, including another home run – this time against elite closer Edwin Diaz. At week's end Garver finds himself with a .500/.522/1.045 slash line. The 28-year-old is just one of those many pieces that makes Minnesota's offensive potential so damn tantalizing. He's got his share of both established ability and ceiling, but is in a spot right now where he has to fight for ABs. There are multiple players on the team (including Mr. Astudillo) in a similar position, and that's a good hell of a good place to be in. After a ho-hum first seven games, Jonathan Schoop turned up the heat in a big way in The Big Apple, launching two home runs in the first game at Citi Field and then adding three hits in the second. We know Schoop is going to have his share of slumps and hacking spells (he went 0-for-7 back at Target Field over the weekend), but his potent presence lurking near the bottom of this order contributes to a minefield dynamic that makes the Twins a nightmare assignment for opposing hurlers. No one exemplifies the lineup's depth better than #9 hitter Byron Buxton, who continues to look very much like the star we've all long dreamed on. Starting all four games for the Twins last week, Buck went 6-for-15 (.400) with three doubles, a triple and another steal. The center fielder has been aggressive and effective, swinging at his pitches and driving them with authority. The tentativeness of 2018 is nowhere to be seen. Through 36 plate appearances on the season, Buxton has only eight strikeouts (22%). Oh, and on Sunday he reminded us he can do stuff like this: https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1117503923898609664 That one was appreciated by Jose Berrios, who was on his way to picking up win #2 on his fourth quality start in four tries. Berrios has a 28-to-5 K/BB ratio in 27 1/3 innings, and is throwing 68% strikes with a 12% swinging strike rate. He's been sublime. Michael Pineda is a strong pairing atop the rotation, and looked stellar in his victory over Detroit on Saturday, pounding the zone with 76% strikes and generating plenty of weak contact. The star of the bullpen right now is Trevor Hildenberger. After Blake Parker made a mess in the ninth on Sunday, loading the bases with one out to endanger a two-run lead, Hildenberger came in and struck out back-to-back hitters. In 5 1/3 innings this year, he has allowed zero runs on four hits with nine strikeouts and one walk. Hildy is throwing 70% strikes with a 17.5% whiff rate. LOWLIGHTS During the two-game series in New York, two freshly promoted pitchers from nearby Rochester made their 2019 Twins debuts against the Mets. Both were abject disasters. Chase De Jong's meltdown came in the ninth inning of Tuesday's win, where he entered with a 10-run lead and saw it shrink to six before he was finally able to record three outs. In this single low-leverage frame, De Jong threw 46 pitches, allowing four earned runs on three hits and four walks. Luckily, the score gap was already so large that the right-hander's miserable outing didn't do much damage, other than forcing Rocco Baldelli to start warming up Taylor Rogers, which he surely would've preferred to avoid. The next night, Andrew Vasquez arrived with a louder thud that was much more painful for a couple of reasons. First, it changed the course of a game the Twins had a good chance to win; Vasquez entered with two outs in the fifth, his team leading 1-0, and left with a 3-1 deficit that swelled to 6-1 by inning's end. The second reason Vasquez's catastrophe was so dispiriting is that, unlike De Jong, he actually has a chance to be an impact player for the Twins this year. https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1116149219860131840 With Rogers serving as more of a matchup-agnostic setup man and Adalberto Mejia still trying to find his way in the relief role, Vasquez might be Minnesota's best bet for a lefty specialist in the pen. But he's going to have to dig his way out of a major hole following an unimaginably poor 2019 intro. In the rotation, the precision of Berrios and Pineda has been sharply contrasted by Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, who are really struggling to find their command. On Wednesday, Odorizzi hit a wall in the fifth after cruising early (stop me if you've heard that one before) and saw things spiral once the bullpen stepped in. He has issued seven walks over 5 1/3 innings in his last two starts, and is throwing just 58% strikes this year. Gibson, meanwhile, just doesn't quite seem to have all his strength back and hasn't made it through the fifth in either of his first two turns. With Martin Perez now set to join the starting corps after his own uninspiring and erratic run in the bullpen (nine walks and a 7.56 ERA in 8 1/3 frames), it's time for a few of these guys to step up. TRENDING STORYLINE There will be no more hiding weaknesses in the rotation or bullpen going forward. The convenience of a break-filled first two weeks is gone, and the Twins must now face the relentless grind of an all-out gauntlet. With only two off-days scheduled in the next five weeks (and a doubleheader mixed in), Minnesota is looking ahead to 37 games in the next 38 days. It's been a good showing thus far from Baldelli's squad, but he's had the luxury of a constantly refreshed bullpen, a deep bench, and a four-man rotation. Now he'll really start getting tested, especially on the reliever front here he must to identify reliable relief arms Rogers, whom the manager has leaned on heavily with seven appearances (and another warm-up, thanks to De Jong) through 12 games. That kind of usage will be infeasible from now on. DOWN ON THE FARM The most important name to watch right now – especially with pertinence to the struggles of bullpen call-ups mentions above – is Fernando Romero. His week with the Red Wings saw one excellent outing, when he tossed 3 1/3 scoreless innings with four strikeouts on Tuesday and one brutal one, when he yielded four runs on three homers over 1 1/3 innings on Saturday. Romero has managed just a 9% swinging strike rate through his first three appearances in Rochester, which is concerning. The idea was that he'd be dominating in this role. One pitcher who was not on the preseason top-prospect radar but is quickly demanding attention: Devin Smeltzer, the 23-year-old left-hander acquired alongside Luke Raley and Logan Forsythe in last year's Brian Dozier trade. After a masterful second start for Pensacola, he has now thrown 14 total innings with zero runs allowed on five hits (all singles) with 17 strikeouts and two walks. It doesn't get much better than that. Smeltzer is quickly establishing himself as one to watch. https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1116906793584812037 The Twins' vaunted minor-league bats have mostly been slow to go. Royce Lewis had his first multi-hit game on Sunday, raising his average at Fort Myers to .206 with a pair of singles, but he has offset his lack of hitting with tremendous discipline. Lewis sports a .404 OBP, thanks to a 12 walks (against only seven strikeouts) in 10 games. . Trevor Larnach's OPS with the Miracle sits at .666 even after he collected three knocks on Sunday. Brent Rooker has a ghastly 18-to-2 K/BB ratio in 40 plate appearances for Rochester. Alex Kirilloff remains sidelined, with little clarity on his return. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins have a full slate ahead next week, and as we've established, that's about to become the norm. They open with a four-game home set against the Blue Jays, who've historically tormented them at Target Field, before swinging out to Baltimore for three games against a very bad Orioles club. MONDAY, 4/15: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Matt Shoemaker v. RHP Martin Perez TUESDAY, 4/16: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Aaron Sanchez v. RHP Kyle Gibson WEDNESDAY, 4/17: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Trent Thornton v. LHP Jake Odorizzi THURSDAY, 4/18: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Clay Buchholz v. RHP Michael Pineda FRIDAY, 4/19: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP John Means SATURDAY, 4/20: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Martin Perez v. RHP Dan Straily SUNDAY, 4/21: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Kyle Gibson RHP Dylan Bundy Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 9 | MIN 14, NYM 8: Beating the Best Game 10 | NYM 9, MIN 6: Forever of a 5th Inning Game 11 | MIN 4, DET 3: Bats Quiet, Bullpen Hangs On Game 12 | MIN 6, DET 4: Berrios Figures It Out, Bullpen Barely Hangs On
  19. After a successful opening series at home, the Minnesota Twins hit the road and battled hard, posting a winning weekly record with help from multiple comebacks and (mostly) continued excellence from the pitching staff. Read on for a full rundown of the 2019 club's first full week. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/1 through Sun, 4/7 *** Record Last Week: 3-2 (Overall: 5-3) Run Differential Last Week: -1 (Overall: +6) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1 GB) Willians Watch: 4-for-12 last week (Season AVG: .500) Before we get underway with this week's column, a few housekeeping notes. On Saturday, the Twins announced they'd designated first baseman Tyler Austin for assignment, in order to make room for right-hander Chase De Jong, who was re-added to the 40-man roster as an insurance arm. Austin can now be plucked by another team, or if he clears waivers he can elect free agency. It's also possible he remains in the Twins organization, but the odds are slim. More importantly, as you can see, I've added a "Willians Watch" tracker above. I just feel like we need to keep our finger on the pulse of this one regularly. HIGHLIGHTS For the most part, Friday night's game was a concentrated source of the team's lowlights for the week, but Jorge Polanco was a gleaming exception. While his teammates bumbled along, Polanco was a one-man wrecking crew, hitting for the cycle in his first four at-bats, then adding a single in his final turn for good measure. It was the first cycle by a Twin in about a decade. A year ago at this time, Polanco was coming to grips with the reality of watching his squad start the season from afar. Now he's taking full advantage of being here from the get-go. The shortstop is raking, with a team-leading 12 hits (including six XBHs) in 35 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Minnesota's leadoff man has also begun to find his stroke. Max Kepler put a quiet first week behind him, going 8-for-23 with three home runs and six RBIs. On Saturday, with Polanco in the three-hole, it was Willians Astudillo batting behind Kepler atop the order – an honor he has certainly earned. Astudillo is 7-for-14 on the young season, and this sequence on Saturday where he and Kepler went back-to-back was emblematic of their outstanding weeks at large: LOOKING AHEAD While there have been glimpses, Minnesota's offense hasn't been quite as explosive as advertised in the early going. It's tough to see that changing at Citi Field, where they'll have to contend with two of the most dominant starting pitchers in baseball. After that two-game set, sandwiched by the last two off days they'll see in a while, the Twins return home to face a Tigers squad that's played well off the block. Forecasts currently call for highs in the 30s and 40s, with a possible mid-week snow storm looming. TUESDAY, 4/9: TWINS @ METS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Jacob deGrom WEDNESDAY, 4/10: TWINS @ METS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Noah Syndergaard FRIDAY, 4/12: TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Michael Pineda SATURDAY, 4/13: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Tyson Ross v. RHP Jose Berrios SUNDAY, 4/14: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jordan Zimmermann v RHP Kyle Gibson Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 4 | MIN 5, KC 4: Cruz Steps UpGame 5 | MIN 7, KC 6: Twins Come Back From 3-Run DeficitGame 6 | PHI 10, MIN 4: Polanco Cycles in the Rain, Rest Is All PainGame 7 | MIN 6, PHI 2: Twins Find Power Stroke, Slug 3 Homers in VictoryGame 8 | PHI 2, MIN 1: Kepler Stays Hot, Hoskins Pops Deciding Homer Click here to view the article
  20. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/1 through Sun, 4/7 *** Record Last Week: 3-2 (Overall: 5-3) Run Differential Last Week: -1 (Overall: +6) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1 GB) Willians Watch: 4-for-12 last week (Season AVG: .500) Before we get underway with this week's column, a few housekeeping notes. On Saturday, the Twins announced they'd designated first baseman Tyler Austin for assignment, in order to make room for right-hander Chase De Jong, who was re-added to the 40-man roster as an insurance arm. Austin can now be plucked by another team, or if he clears waivers he can elect free agency. It's also possible he remains in the Twins organization, but the odds are slim. More importantly, as you can see, I've added a "Willians Watch" tracker above. I just feel like we need to keep our finger on the pulse of this one regularly. HIGHLIGHTS For the most part, Friday night's game was a concentrated source of the team's lowlights for the week, but Jorge Polanco was a gleaming exception. While his teammates bumbled along, Polanco was a one-man wrecking crew, hitting for the cycle in his first four at-bats, then adding a single in his final turn for good measure. It was the first cycle by a Twin in about a decade. A year ago at this time, Polanco was coming to grips with the reality of watching his squad start the season from afar. Now he's taking full advantage of being here from the get-go. The shortstop is raking, with a team-leading 12 hits (including six XBHs) in 35 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Minnesota's leadoff man has also begun to find his stroke. Max Kepler put a quiet first week behind him, going 8-for-23 with three home runs and six RBIs. On Saturday, with Polanco in the three-hole, it was Willians Astudillo batting behind Kepler atop the order – an honor he has certainly earned. Astudillo is 7-for-14 on the young season, and this sequence on Saturday where he and Kepler went back-to-back was emblematic of their outstanding weeks at large: https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1114626277930086401 Eddie Rosario hasn't quite found his sustained groove at the plate yet, but he's certainly been clutch. On Tuesday in Kansas City he came through with a game-tying RBI single in the ninth inning that set up a comeback victory. On Wednesday he delivered the decisive blow, a go-ahead RBI single in the ninth that capped another impressive comeback. And on Saturday in Philadelphia, Rosario entered as a pinch-hitter in the ninth, with the Twins nursing a precarious one-run lead, and delivered a three-run blast to seal the win. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1114630530866274305 The left fielder has only six hits on the season so far, and those are three of them. So, there's something to be said for making 'em count. But overall Rosario has opened his campaign in a slump, which makes me more giddy than concerned. I've come to learn that any drought in production for Eddie is usually the precedent for a scorching hot streak. That he's been able to contribute so much with his bat mostly in Silent Mode portends big things ahead. On the pitching side, Michael Pineda backed up his masterful season debut with a convincing encore. The big righty was excellent against the Phillies on Saturday, allowing two runs on four hits over five innings with five strikeouts, while notching his first win since June of 2017. Jose Berrios followed with a terrific outing on Sunday, although his only damage yielded (a two-run homer by Rhys Hoskins in the sixth) proved to be the difference-maker. Berrios has a 2.18 ERA with 21 strikeouts through his first three starts. And of course we've gotta show some love to the bullpen. This unit continues to outshine expectations. Over the past week, Twins relievers combined to allow just five earned runs in 20 2/3 innings (2.18 ERA) with four of those coming in Friday night's rainy affair. Blake Parker chipped in three hitless outings and picked up two saves. Ryne Harper delivered two scoreless appearances in Philly. Trevor Hildenberger and Trevor May combined to pitch six times without allowing a run. LOWLIGHTS As Marwin Gonzalez struggled through each of his appearances in spring training, it reached a point where I openly wondered about his readiness for regular-season action. The comments on that article mostly consisted of, "Who cares, it's spring training," which probably would've been my response under most circumstances. Hours after I published it, Gonzalez struck out four times against the Orioles, with five days left to go before Opening Day. Still, Rocco Baldelli's sentiments reflected the consensus: Asked by a reporter (not me!) post-game about the third baseman's ugly night, Baldelli blinked a few times and said he wouldn't have even thought twice about it had it not been brought up. On Opening Day, Gonzalez delivered the decisive knock for Minnesota, driving in the game's only two runs with a nice piece of opposite-field hitting. We all chuckled. Spring training stats, amirite? The problem is this: Outside of that crucial double in the opener, Gonzalez has looked pretty much exactly the same as he did in spring training – sloppy, ineffective, and borderline lackadaisical. He's 3-for-22 with three singles otherwise, and hasn't been very sharp in the field. We saw his vaunted defensive versatility tested for the first time on Friday, when he slid to first base, and he committed two errors almost immediately. A review of his 2018 season shows that Gonzalez struggled out of the gates for Houston, and he eventually found his footing on the way to a solid year. In fact, April and May have typically been among his worst months, while his offensive has tended to tick up in June and July. So it may well be that these early struggles aren't related to signing late, or a poor spring, but simply part of his normal pattern. Speaking of strong first 2019 impressions that weren't backed up... Jake Odorizzi. The right-hander twirled a gem in his first start and couldn't get through the first inning in his second. Friday was an all-around mess, played under drizzly and chilly conditions. Odorizzi couldn't find his command, throwing 18 of 36 pitches for strikes before being pulled with just two outs recorded. This forced the Twins to use five different relievers, creating a need for extra help over the weekend and – basically – writing Austin's ticket out of town. Said Odorizzi after the game: "I got out there. It was raining. I warmed up. It was raining. The first inning it was raining. I didn't have a feel for the baseball." It bears mentioning that other pitchers in the game didn't seem to have nearly such a hard time, but given how good Odorizzi looked his first time out, I'm inclined to write this one off. We'll see if he can shake off the ugliness of Friday's game and bounce back strong, as the Twins did on Saturday. TRENDING STORYLINE How hard will Baldelli try to find ABs for Astudillo? Right now, the guy is making an airtight case for regular run in the lineup. Through 114 major-league plate appearances, he's hitting .374/.395/.570, and there's not much in his unorthodox approach – swing at everything, hit everything hard – to suggest it's a mirage. Plus, there's just an undeniable spark he brings when he's in the game. In theory, Astudillo as an everyday player sounds great. In practice, it's not so straightforward. The Twins have two other catchers on the roster; Jason Castro is a steady veteran that pitchers like to work with, and Mitch Garver is a still-developing 28-year-old coming off a strong rookie year. Astudillo can also play third, and started there last Wednesday. But Gonzalez is gonna get his reps there and the eventual return of Miguel Sano (who might start a rehab assignment this week) will further crowd that picture. La Tortuga isn't going to play much outfield. And his pathway at DH is blocked by Nelson Cruz. So where do you get him in? With Jonathan Schoop off to an uninspiring start, I'm eyeing second base as an intriguing possibility. Astudillo made two of his first four MLB starts at second last July, but hasn't played it since. He also logged only 140 innings there in the minors. I'm not sure he has the range or footwork to be a legitimate option at second base, but then again I'm clearly grasping for answers. The Twins need more Tortuga. DOWN ON THE FARM Minor-league affiliates announced their season-opening rosters last week, and Seth had them fully covered here. Go ahead and get the rundowns below: AAA: 2019 Rochester Red Wings AA: 2019 Pensacola Blue Wahoos A+: 2019 Fort Myers Miracle A: 2019 Cedar Rapids Kernels All four teams got their schedules underway, and the Twins received some premier performances from their top pitchers right away. Friday's arms extravaganza saw Brusdar Graterol and Jorge Alcala deliver gems on each end of Pensacola's doubleheader, Jhoan Duran spin a beauty for Fort Myers, and Jordan Balazovic outshined them all in Cedar Rapids. Those first three names all ranked among our preseason Top 20 Twins prospects. But the transcendence from Balazovic, who was an honorable mention, might be most eyebrow-raising. He's been generating real buzz coming into the season, and in his first start for the Kernels we saw why. Over five innings of one run ball, the 6'4" right-hander walked none and struck out nine, including six straight at one point: https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1114386192865398790 LOOKING AHEAD While there have been glimpses, Minnesota's offense hasn't been quite as explosive as advertised in the early going. It's tough to see that changing at Citi Field, where they'll have to contend with two of the most dominant starting pitchers in baseball. After that two-game set, sandwiched by the last two off days they'll see in a while, the Twins return home to face a Tigers squad that's played well off the block. Forecasts currently call for highs in the 30s and 40s, with a possible mid-week snow storm looming. TUESDAY, 4/9: TWINS @ METS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Jacob deGrom WEDNESDAY, 4/10: TWINS @ METS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Noah Syndergaard FRIDAY, 4/12: TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Michael Pineda SATURDAY, 4/13: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Tyson Ross v. RHP Jose Berrios SUNDAY, 4/14: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jordan Zimmermann v RHP Kyle Gibson Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 4 | MIN 5, KC 4: Cruz Steps Up Game 5 | MIN 7, KC 6: Twins Come Back From 3-Run Deficit Game 6 | PHI 10, MIN 4: Polanco Cycles in the Rain, Rest Is All Pain Game 7 | MIN 6, PHI 2: Twins Find Power Stroke, Slug 3 Homers in Victory Game 8 | PHI 2, MIN 1: Kepler Stays Hot, Hoskins Pops Deciding Homer
  21. Our inclination to inflate the importance of Opening Day is only natural. After a long winter, that date becomes the singular focus of baseball fans everywhere. Opening Day roster, Opening Day lineup, Opening Day outcome. The perceived significance of each is overblown. We all know it. But still, impressions from Minnesota's impressive performance during the season's first weekend, and especially Opening Day, are hard to shake. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 3/25 through Sun, 3/31 *** Record Last Week: 2-1 (Overall: 2-1) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +7) Standing: Tied for 1st Place in AL Central HIGHLIGHTS The powered-up Twins pitching staff is already on display, setting a new franchise record with 39 strikeouts through their first three games. On Thursday and Saturday, Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi became the second starting duo in history to open a season with back-to-back double-digit strikeout totals. The feat was only previously accomplished by Arizona's Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in 2001 – arguably the greatest SP tandem in major-league history. No biggie. On Sunday, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez piggybacked for 11 strikeouts over 7 2/3 combined innings, continuing the run of rotation dominance against a diminished Cleveland lineup (sans Francisco Lindor). You can knock the quality of the opposition, but I would respond with two points: 1) There's nothing misleading about the results this group achieved. Everyone looked fantastic. Berrios unleashed a barrage of filthy breaking balls and mixed in an upgraded changeup. Odorizzi was changing speeds and eye levels expertly. Pineda pounded the zone with heavy stuff. Perez constantly worked inside with the same 95-97 MPH heat he was flashing in spring training. There was no smoke-and-mirrors behind this magic. And, 2) The Indians aren't THAT beat-up. They're missing their best hitter in Lindor, yes, but fellow absentee Jason Kipnis hasn't been a factor in recent years. I mean, the fact that Tyler Naquin and Jake Bauers were Cleveland's #3 hitters in this series is really quite stunning. The qualitative difference between these two offenses was starkly apparent. One of the most interesting aspects of this Twins team coming into the season, from my view, was the legitimately high-powered starting corps, which has come along so far since five years ago. In total, the four starters combined for 47 swinging strikes on 310 pitches, a remarkable 15.1% whiff rate. For context, only three qualified MLB starters induced swinging strikes at a higher percentage in 2018: Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Carlos Carrasco (who the Twins knocked around in Sunday's series finale). Meanwhile, the bullpen was effective for the most part. Rocco Baldelli rotated through all six of his relievers and got scoreless appearances from five of them, with Taylor Rogers going twice and looking particularly crisp. So, early returns on new pitching coach Wes Johnson and his staff are resoundingly positive. The offense was mostly quiet in the opening series, facing the unenviable assignments of Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer in the season's first two games. Both enter this campaign as Cy Young frontrunners, and each looked the part in helping hold Minnesota's potent lineup to three runs on six hits through 18 innings. But Nelson Cruz made an impact in all three games as the Twins' new #3 hitter. He set up Marwin Gonzalez' game-winning hit on Thursday with a leadoff single in the seventh against Kluber. He drove in Minnesota's lone run on Saturday with some impressive bat-handling against Bauer. And he keyed the offense's breakout on Sunday by going 3-for-5 with the club's first home run of the year. The other most noteworthy performer was Byron Buxton. Fears of a post-spring drought quickly disappeared as he went 4-for-10 with three doubles and only two strikeouts in his first series. Last year, his third double came on May 12th. In 2017, he didn't get his fourth hit until almost two weeks into the season. It's certainly a modest benchmark but this is easily the best start of Buxton's career. Seeing him fired up and pumping his fists at second on Sunday after delivering a key two-run double – with two outs, on an 0-2 count – was the most invigorating sight for me on a weekend that offered plenty to choose from in that regard. LOWLIGHTS There wasn't a whole lot to dislike in these first three games. The Twins won two of them in fairly convincing fashion, and fell short by one run in the other. The final inning of that loss provides the only real fodder for grievances. Blake Parker was the only Twins pitcher to struggle in the entire series, and it wasn't because he got hit hard. The Arkansas native simply could not find any semblance of control in the chilly weather on Saturday. Carlos Santana singled, then moved from first to third on a pair of wild pitches. Parker walked Hanley Ramirez and fell behind Greg Allen 2-0 before allowing a sacrifice fly to deep center. The outing was uglier to watch than it looks on paper: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB. All things considered, if that's your most disastrous pitching performance in a series you can feel pretty good. And the Twins were well positioned to get that run back in the bottom half. Buxton led off against Cleveland closer Brad Hand with a wind-aided "double" to the shallow outfield. Baldelli then curiously elected not to use a pinch-hitter for Max Kepler, despite Hand's record of pure dominance against lefty swingers. Kepler struck out, and the rally went on to fall short. Presumably, Baldelli is just trying to show confidence in his core guys, but turning to a contact machine like Willians Astudillo in that spot – speedy runner on second, no outs, deepest bench the Twins will have all year – seemed like such an obvious call that it was surprising not to see it from the ostensibly analytical thinker. Will loyalty outweigh logic in the future? Something to watch. In general, Kepler is off to a slow start, as is fellow corner outfielder Eddie Rosario (combined 1-for-22), but there's no reason to worry about either. TRENDING STORYLINE There's only one active Twins pitcher we haven't seen yet. It's kind of crazy that the rotation showed such incredible swing-and-miss proficiency in the opening series without its reigning whiff leader. Kyle Gibson spent his spring trying to regain strength and weight following a nasty winter bout with E. coli. He admitted after his last exhibition start – an ugly clunker against the Red Sox – that he still wasn't quite back to where he ideally wanted to be. So it's not surprising to see the Twins giving him as much time as they possibly can; Gibson's first start will come after Berrios takes his second turn on Tuesday in Kansas City. How will he look? Gibson's success last year was fueled by career-high velocity, so any sapped voltage might have a material impact. But if he's mostly back to form, this rotation has a chance to start generating some real enthusiasm in short order. DOWN ON THE FARM Minor-league games haven't started yet, and in fact official rosters for the affiliates haven't even been announced yet. But that will all come this week, with Minor League Opening Day on Thursday. Make sure you stay tuned into Twins Daily for unparalleled coverage of the team's system and prospects. I'll be recapping the most noteworthy developments in this space each Sunday night, but the day-to-day minor-league coverage on this site is beyond robust and comprehensive. Thanks in advance to all of the people who work hard to make it possible: Seth, Cody, Tom, Steve, Ted, Matt... can't wait to read all of your reports this summer. LOOKING AHEAD Following a successful home kickoff, the Twins embark on a seven-game road trip with four off days sprinkled in. Baldelli will have a deep bench and rested bullpen as he tours through two National League parks, starting with Philadelphia next weekend. TUESDAY, 4/2: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Brad Keller WEDNESDAY, 4/3: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Homer Bailey FRIDAY, 4/5: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Nick Pivetta SATURDAY, 4/6: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Jake Arrieta SUNDAY, 4/7: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Zach Eflin Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 1 | MIN 2, CLE 0: Berrios Dominates, Sets Twins Opening Day Record for KsGame 2 | CLE 2, MIN 1: Odorizzi Strikes Out 11, Wild Parker Surrenders Go-Ahead RunGame 3 | MIN 9, CLE 3: Twins Take Series Behind Pineda, Tortuga Click here to view the article
  22. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 3/25 through Sun, 3/31 *** Record Last Week: 2-1 (Overall: 2-1) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +7) Standing: Tied for 1st Place in AL Central HIGHLIGHTS The powered-up Twins pitching staff is already on display, setting a new franchise record with 39 strikeouts through their first three games. On Thursday and Saturday, Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi became the second starting duo in history to open a season with back-to-back double-digit strikeout totals. The feat was only previously accomplished by Arizona's Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in 2001 – arguably the greatest SP tandem in major-league history. No biggie. On Sunday, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez piggybacked for 11 strikeouts over 7 2/3 combined innings, continuing the run of rotation dominance against a diminished Cleveland lineup (sans Francisco Lindor). You can knock the quality of the opposition, but I would respond with two points: 1) There's nothing misleading about the results this group achieved. Everyone looked fantastic. Berrios unleashed a barrage of filthy breaking balls and mixed in an upgraded changeup. Odorizzi was changing speeds and eye levels expertly. Pineda pounded the zone with heavy stuff. Perez constantly worked inside with the same 95-97 MPH heat he was flashing in spring training. There was no smoke-and-mirrors behind this magic. And, 2) The Indians aren't THAT beat-up. They're missing their best hitter in Lindor, yes, but fellow absentee Jason Kipnis hasn't been a factor in recent years. I mean, the fact that Tyler Naquin and Jake Bauers were Cleveland's #3 hitters in this series is really quite stunning. The qualitative difference between these two offenses was starkly apparent. One of the most interesting aspects of this Twins team coming into the season, from my view, was the legitimately high-powered starting corps, which has come along so far since five years ago. In total, the four starters combined for 47 swinging strikes on 310 pitches, a remarkable 15.1% whiff rate. For context, only three qualified MLB starters induced swinging strikes at a higher percentage in 2018: Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Carlos Carrasco (who the Twins knocked around in Sunday's series finale). Meanwhile, the bullpen was effective for the most part. Rocco Baldelli rotated through all six of his relievers and got scoreless appearances from five of them, with Taylor Rogers going twice and looking particularly crisp. So, early returns on new pitching coach Wes Johnson and his staff are resoundingly positive. The offense was mostly quiet in the opening series, facing the unenviable assignments of Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer in the season's first two games. Both enter this campaign as Cy Young frontrunners, and each looked the part in helping hold Minnesota's potent lineup to three runs on six hits through 18 innings. But Nelson Cruz made an impact in all three games as the Twins' new #3 hitter. He set up Marwin Gonzalez' game-winning hit on Thursday with a leadoff single in the seventh against Kluber. He drove in Minnesota's lone run on Saturday with some impressive bat-handling against Bauer. And he keyed the offense's breakout on Sunday by going 3-for-5 with the club's first home run of the year. The other most noteworthy performer was Byron Buxton. Fears of a post-spring drought quickly disappeared as he went 4-for-10 with three doubles and only two strikeouts in his first series. Last year, his third double came on May 12th. In 2017, he didn't get his fourth hit until almost two weeks into the season. It's certainly a modest benchmark but this is easily the best start of Buxton's career. Seeing him fired up and pumping his fists at second on Sunday after delivering a key two-run double – with two outs, on an 0-2 count – was the most invigorating sight for me on a weekend that offered plenty to choose from in that regard. LOWLIGHTS There wasn't a whole lot to dislike in these first three games. The Twins won two of them in fairly convincing fashion, and fell short by one run in the other. The final inning of that loss provides the only real fodder for grievances. Blake Parker was the only Twins pitcher to struggle in the entire series, and it wasn't because he got hit hard. The Arkansas native simply could not find any semblance of control in the chilly weather on Saturday. Carlos Santana singled, then moved from first to third on a pair of wild pitches. Parker walked Hanley Ramirez and fell behind Greg Allen 2-0 before allowing a sacrifice fly to deep center. The outing was uglier to watch than it looks on paper: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB. All things considered, if that's your most disastrous pitching performance in a series you can feel pretty good. And the Twins were well positioned to get that run back in the bottom half. Buxton led off against Cleveland closer Brad Hand with a wind-aided "double" to the shallow outfield. Baldelli then curiously elected not to use a pinch-hitter for Max Kepler, despite Hand's record of pure dominance against lefty swingers. https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1112097886546915329 Kepler struck out, and the rally went on to fall short. Presumably, Baldelli is just trying to show confidence in his core guys, but turning to a contact machine like Willians Astudillo in that spot – speedy runner on second, no outs, deepest bench the Twins will have all year – seemed like such an obvious call that it was surprising not to see it from the ostensibly analytical thinker. Will loyalty outweigh logic in the future? Something to watch. In general, Kepler is off to a slow start, as is fellow corner outfielder Eddie Rosario (combined 1-for-22), but there's no reason to worry about either. TRENDING STORYLINE There's only one active Twins pitcher we haven't seen yet. It's kind of crazy that the rotation showed such incredible swing-and-miss proficiency in the opening series without its reigning whiff leader. Kyle Gibson spent his spring trying to regain strength and weight following a nasty winter bout with E. coli. He admitted after his last exhibition start – an ugly clunker against the Red Sox – that he still wasn't quite back to where he ideally wanted to be. So it's not surprising to see the Twins giving him as much time as they possibly can; Gibson's first start will come after Berrios takes his second turn on Tuesday in Kansas City. How will he look? Gibson's success last year was fueled by career-high velocity, so any sapped voltage might have a material impact. But if he's mostly back to form, this rotation has a chance to start generating some real enthusiasm in short order. DOWN ON THE FARM Minor-league games haven't started yet, and in fact official rosters for the affiliates haven't even been announced yet. But that will all come this week, with Minor League Opening Day on Thursday. Make sure you stay tuned into Twins Daily for unparalleled coverage of the team's system and prospects. I'll be recapping the most noteworthy developments in this space each Sunday night, but the day-to-day minor-league coverage on this site is beyond robust and comprehensive. Thanks in advance to all of the people who work hard to make it possible: Seth, Cody, Tom, Steve, Ted, Matt... can't wait to read all of your reports this summer. LOOKING AHEAD Following a successful home kickoff, the Twins embark on a seven-game road trip with four off days sprinkled in. Baldelli will have a deep bench and rested bullpen as he tours through two National League parks, starting with Philadelphia next weekend. TUESDAY, 4/2: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Brad Keller WEDNESDAY, 4/3: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Homer Bailey FRIDAY, 4/5: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Nick Pivetta SATURDAY, 4/6: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Jake Arrieta SUNDAY, 4/7: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Zach Eflin Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 1 | MIN 2, CLE 0: Berrios Dominates, Sets Twins Opening Day Record for Ks Game 2 | CLE 2, MIN 1: Odorizzi Strikes Out 11, Wild Parker Surrenders Go-Ahead Run Game 3 | MIN 9, CLE 3: Twins Take Series Behind Pineda, Tortuga
  23. Minefields represent perilous uncertainty. One wrong step, and BOOM. I can think of no better allegory for these 2019 Minnesota Twins. The dynamic applies in both a positive way, with regard to the offense, and a negative one, with reg to the pitching staff. Whether the Twins or their opponents (and the uncontrollable) trigger more explosions will dictate this potential playoff team's fate.AN EXPLOSIVE OFFENSE Opposing pitchers will feel like they're stepping through a minefield as they attempt to navigate Minnesota's relentless lineup. There is legitimate 20-30 home run potential at every position other than catcher, and even there, the Twins are better equipped offensively than most. This unit offers elite potential, and while it's not too hard to envision them falling short amidst a sea of strikeouts and sinking OBPs, the Twins will at the very least be a formidably powerful bunch. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system projects Minnesota to score the sixth-most runs in the American League (739), with nine different players reaching double-digit homers. If things break right in a few places, it's not at all difficult to envision this club setting a modern franchise record for home runs, surpassing the 2017 team's total of 206, and even challenging those historical mid-60s squads led by Harmon Killebrew, Bob Allison and Jimmie Hall (225, in 1963, is the mark to beat). Beyond the massive upside of the offense, what's most tantalizing here is the entertainment value it's poised to deliver. On any particular night at Target Field, attendees could be in for a memorable show. The sheer spectacle of Nelson Cruz uncorking a rocket to the third deck (he consistently ranks among the MLB leaders in exit velocity) or Byron Buxton racing around the bases (he's the single fastest runner in baseball, per Statcast) or Willians Astudillo doing... Willians Astudillo things is worth the price of admission. I think back to those lifeless days last summer when Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar often seemed to be the only pulse in the lineup, and I'm heartened by how far we've come. Granted, injuries are bound to take their tolls, and several hitters – such as Buxton, Jonathan Schoop and Max Kepler – need to prove themselves on varying levels. But there's enough depth here, especially with the late addition of mega-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, to cover up for quite a few misfires. READ MORE: Breaking Down Rocco Baldelli's Lineup Construction A FOREBODING ROTATION Let's start here: It is not beyond reason that this could be the best, most competitive Twins rotation to come along in quite a while. Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson were legit upper-echelon pitchers last year. Both have the kinds of bat-missing stuff, plus healthy arms, to warrant confidence. Michael Pineda is a big, gas-throwing force – a former All-Star rookie with a career 3.60 FIP and 1.19 WHIP. Martin Perez has established a firm rep as a stable, perfectly adequate back-end starter – and that outlook now feels almost pessimistic with the way he's thrown this spring. Jake Odorizzi, even if he merely replicates last year's career-worst results, is insanely good for a fifth starter. So, if the Twins are able to prance their way through the minefield with no detonations, they could find themselves looking pristine on the other side. In terms of realistic one-through-five upside, I can't remember a better group. But this landscape, it is riddled with lurking danger. Berrios looks as strong as ever heading into the campaign. But the same can't be said for his counterpart atop the rotation. By his own admission, Gibson hadn't quite gotten back all the weight and strength he wanted by the time he made his final spring start last Friday. He also got absolutely crushed by the Red Sox in said outing. While he's been damn good for the past year-and-a-half, Gibson hardly has the long-term track record to earn unflinching confidence. Even at his best, Pineda has never quite fulfilled his obviously immense potential, and pitchers in their first year off Tommy John have an uninspiring history. Perez, for all the spring buzz, has posted a better-than-average ERA once in the past five seasons, and was a disaster last year. Odorizzi has been trending the wrong direction for a while now, with his ERA+ going from 117 to 108 to 100 to 97. So that's a fair amount of ominous risk even before you account for the inevitability of injuries. Step very carefully. In case of emergency, the reinforcements are ripe with reservations. Stephen Gonsalves and Kohl Stewart both showed glimmers of promise while finishing strong last year, but neither was all that impressive overall. Zack Littell had a roundly rough go in the majors, but he was a 22-year-old second-tier prospect. Lewis Thorpe has yet to get his first shot in the big leagues, but the Twins aren't shy in their ample belief in him, and his minor-league numbers seem to validate it. Some expressed disappointment with Minnesota's offseason approach to the rotation, and I get it. But personally I'm a fan. The only player they added is a 27-year-old with optional control beyond this year, and they've maintained total flexibility going forward, with plenty of capable young arms to sort through in the months ahead. Plus, they've got an innovative new pitching coach on hand whose positive impact is already generating spring buzz. READ MORE: Unlocking Heat: Pitching Coach Wes Johnson and Biomechanics A VOLATILE BULLPEN If you should ever find yourself in an actual minefield, you are advised to get down on your hands and knees, gently probing every inch as you proceed very slowly, and very carefully. Rocco Baldelli might want to master his army crawl for the late innings. The rookie manager's complete lack of experience pulling bullpen strings is compounded by a unit that's direly short on truly safe bets, and even shorter on proven depth. While the Twins can feel good about their bona fide relief ace Taylor Rogers, the lanky lefty is followed by varying degrees of ambiguity. Minnesota's lone offseason addition, Blake Parker, has looked good after drawing minimal interest on the open market. Trevor May has the stuff to dominate at the end of games, but has thrown 68 innings total over the past three seasons. Trevor Hildenberger was Mr. Reliable for his first year's worth of games in a Twins uniform, then a total mess in the 2018 second half. Adalberto Mejia is essentially the sixth starter filling a long-relief role. Ryne Harper is a 30-year-old who's never thrown a pitch in the majors. Opening on the Injured List are Addison Reed, Matt Magill and Gabriel Moya. It says a lot that Reed feels like the least plausible member of that trio to return and make an impact. His unraveling and the (in hindsight) baffling trade of Ryan Pressly last summer have drastically lessened the bullpen's firepower. And in the minors? Fernando Romero is the pivotal figure, of course. The Twins hoped he'd be a weapon out of their bullpen from the get-go, but his spring performance made it apparent he's not ready. Hopefully he'll be able to join up relatively early but it's tough to say how long his acclimation in Rochester might take. Beyond Romero, there are a handful of marginal big-league talents to fall back on, but no savior-type looming. The good news, I suppose, is that it's easier to add in-season help for the bullpen than perhaps any other position. The front office has plenty of financial flexibility and prospect capital to make things happen. At a time where roughly half the league has no real aspiration to contend, the supply/demand ratio should be favorable. But as I look ahead to a season for which I'm mostly giddy with excitement, I can't help but feel apprehension about the spectre of April and May leads evaporating repeatedly, impeding Minnesota's efforts to take advantage of a weakened Cleveland club out of the gates. READ MORE: Closing Time: What is the Pecking Order for Saves in the Twins Bullpen? LOOKING AHEAD It'll be great if the Twins are finally able to leapfrog the Indians in the AL Central and capture their first division title in almost a decade. It's really not all that unlikely an outcome, especially when you factor in Cleveland's early injury woes, and their wavering commitment to firmly retaining their grasp (they were reportedly STILL talking about trading one of their linchpin starters earlier this month). But, realistically, expectations need to be kept in check. This team is led by a 37-year-old manager with zero experience in the role. He is aided by two pitching instructors who've never even been on major-league coaching staffs. Minnesota's outlook is dependent on a variety of breakout and bounceback candidates who mostly lack stable track records. Multiple building-block prospects are still a year or two away. The path ahead is a precarious one. But the Twins will embark upon it with a combination of pure power (both hitting and pitching) and analytical prowess like we've never seen before. One way another, I'm expecting plenty of boom. Hopefully much more of the good kind. *** You can learn about the 2019 team's outlook and depth at every position by perusing the position analysis articles below. And, of course, check back in to Twins Daily each day all season for unparalleled coverage of your favorite team. This is gonna be a fun one. Position-by-Position Analysis for the 2019 Twins Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Right Field Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher Click here to view the article
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