Nick Nelson

Ah yeah, good call, I had it backwards. He hit one HR in Cedar Rapids then 4 in Ft. Myers. Article updated. And yes, agreed, his performance in the FSL was quite impressive considering the context.

The 2018 season was a turbulent one for the Minnesota Twins, and for some of their heralded upcoming talents as well. Two prospects who ranked among our top five a year ago now find themselves outside of the top ten. But that's not necessarily damning in a robust system that shows well here in the 11 through 15 range.15. Yunior Severino, 2B Age: 19 (DOB: 10/3/99) 2018 Stats (Rookie): 218 PA, .263/.321/.424, 8 HR, 28 RBI ETA: 2022 2018 Ranking: 18 It feels like a lifetime ago that the Atlanta Braves were handed severe sanctions for circumventing MLB's international signing rules, with GM John Coppolella banned for life and nine of the organization's signings released back into free agency. (Especially since Atlanta's internal rebuild coalesced so beautifully anyway in 2018.) But it was just last offseason that the Twins were able to capitalize and scoop up Severino, who enjoyed a solid rookie-level debut with his new franchise. In 49 games at Elizabethton, Severino posted a .745 OPS that was nearly identical to the Appalachian League average (.746). He did so as an 18-year-old switch-hitting middle infielder, in a setting where the average player was two years older. His eight home runs tied for the league lead among second basemen. Already closing in on 200 pounds as a teenager, Severino doesn't have much speed to speak of (he hasn't stolen a base in 107 games as a pro) and will probably end up at a corner spot defensively, so his bat will probably have to carry him. But there's plenty of potential in that department. "He’s like Alex Kirilloff—his swing stands out from the others,” VP for player personnel Mike Radcliff told Baseball America when the Twins signed Severino. Not a bad comp. 14. Ben Rortvedt, C Age: 21 (DOB: 9/25/97) 2018 Stats (A-/A+): 353 PA, .262/.331/.379, 5 HR, 43 RBI ETA: 2021 2018 Ranking: 16 Since being drafted by the Twins as a second-rounder in 2016, Rortvedt's offensive game has lagged behind his relatively advanced defense. In that scope, his 2018 season has to be viewed as a success; between two levels of A-ball, the lefty-swinging Wisconsin native posted a .710 OPS, improving by more than 100 points on 2017's underwhelming mark (.599) at Cedar Rapids. He certainly wasn't dominant at the plate following his midseason promotion to Fort Myers, but his approach was exemplary, with a 0.72 BB/K ratio that ranked second-best among Florida State League catchers with 100+ PA. At this point we're just waiting for a bit more power to emerge, which seems feasible as he keeps growing and adding strength. He totaled four home runs with the Miracle after hitting one in Cedar Rapids, the last a grand slam in late-August as part of a six-RBI outburst. As a receiver, Rortvedt draws high marks. His excellent arm continues to control opposing run games, as he threw out 37% of base stealers last year following 2017's 36%. He figures to compete for a spot at Double-A this spring, but will have to fend off the next guy on this list. 13. Ryan Jeffers, C Age: 21 (DOB: 6/3/97) 2018 Stats (Rookie/A-): 284 PA, .344/.444/.502, 7 HR, 33 RBI ETA: 2021 2018 Ranking: N/A I noted in recapping last year's list that while the system was generally balanced, "the notable area of concern is catcher." Rortvedt and Mitch Garver were the position's only representatives in the Top 20, and Garver would soon lose his prospect eligibility. So Jeffers immediately took on a great deal of importance when the Twins drafted him out UNC Wilmington in the second round, 59th overall, last June. He was the fourth catcher to come off the board, and the second collegiate backstop. Answering the call, Jeffers arrived with a thunderous debut in pro ball. Although you'd generally expect a successful college hitter (Jeffers put up a 1.095 OPS with 16 homers in his final season at Wilmington) to catch on quickly in the low minors, Jeffers surpassed all expectations offensively, slashing a ridiculous .422/.543/.578 in 29 games at Elizabethton before moving up to Low-A, where he finished at .288/.361/.446 in 36 contests. His bat looks legit. The key question is whether he'll stick at catcher. He's a big guy (6'4", 228) with a good arm (threw out five of 12 runners last year) but there are many raw aspects of his game behind the plate. For his part, he has no intentions of moving: "“The Twins haven’t even asked me to play anything else,” he told the Pioneer Press. “For me, that’s a good sign. They trust me behind the plate and want me to stick there. I want to stick back behind the plate. I don’t really want to play any other position.” Jeffers and Rortvedt are two sides of the same coin, inspiring plenty of confidence in one dimension with less polish in the other. They're at roughly the same stage of development. It's tough to say at this point which one's more likely to emerge, but the Twins are much better off for having both of them in the system. 12. Nick Gordon, SS Age: 23 (DOB: 10/24/95) 2018 Stats (AA/AAA): 591 PA, 248/.298/.355, 7 HR, 49 RBI ETA: 2019 2018 Ranking: 3 In the plot line of Gordon's career, you can pinpoint the moment where his prospect stock absolutely peaked, and then embarked upon an abrupt nosedive. It was on May 22nd, 2018, when he was promoted to Triple-A and suddenly everything began to fall apart. Gordon had torn it up in Chattanooga over the first two months, slashing .333/.381/.525 to back up his preseason #3 ranking on Twins Daily's prospect list, but at Rochester his limitations took center-stage. Gordon's offensive potential was always based more on projection than production. That he was able to remain a regular fixture in national prospect rankings despite never cracking a .750 OPS through four years speaks to the prestige of his pedigree. In Triple-A, the lack of power and patience caused him to tank. He endured multiple long hitless stretches. In his final 40 games he batted .166 with three extra-base hits in 170 plate appearances. Even with the context that a 22-year-old Gordon was young for the International League, it was tough to find silver linings. Meanwhile, the questions about his viability at shortstop gained more weight, as Gordon ceded a higher percentage of playing time than ever before – nearly one out of every three starts – to second base. An eventual move across the bag was generally assumed, given his lack of standout arm strength, but if Gordon can't play short in the majors his need to add offense is magnified. To that end, Gordon is said to be focused on gaining weight (and strength) this offseason. The Star Tribune reports that he's spent significant time at the team's facility in Fort Myers. If it all comes together at the plate, he'll have no trouble providing value at either middle-infield spot. Added to the 40-man roster in November, his options clock will start ticking this season. 11. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP Age: 24 (DOB: 7/8/94) 2018 Stats (AA/AAA): 120.2 IP, 2.76 ERA, 120/65 K/BB, 1.17 WHIP ETA: 2019 2018 Ranking: 4 In the plot line of Gonsalves' career, you can pinpoint the moment where his prospect stock absolutely peaked, and then embarked upon an abrupt nosedive. It was August 20th, 2018, when he arrived in the majors following an unconscious stretch at Triple-A and delivered the first in a series of clunkers. Over his first four MLB starts, every flaw in the left-hander's game was exploited. Batters teed off on his low-velo arsenal, batting .414 and pushing across 16 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. He constantly struggled to find the zone, with 13 walks and a 57% strike rate. He threw 287 pitches and induced 17 swings and misses (6%). To his credit, Gonsalves turned things around and finished on a strong note, allowing two earned runs and four hits over 12 1/3 innings in his last three appearances, all following an "opener." During this stretch his strengths were more visible – namely a long-standing ability to limit hard contact – but he still was wild and unable to miss bats, reminding us of the tightrope he walks with limited stuff. Despite his impeccable numbers throughout the minors, which were as good as ever as he climbed past the top rung, it was always difficult for analysts to envision Gonsalves as an overpowering major-league starter. In August and September, we saw why. Gordon and Gonsalves in 2018 were both prime examples of weaknesses being exposed at the highest levels. But they're also both under 25, with ample development time ahead of them before options run out. It's important to keep in mind the positive attributes that earned each a spot in the top five a year ago. At least each one now has a precise idea of what needs improvement. In the words of Henry Ford: "Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently." Twins Daily 2019 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B 19. Jorge Alcala, RHP 18. LaMonte Wade, OF 17. Zack Littell, RHP 16. Gilberto Celestino, OF Click here to view the article

He's been a top-3 catcher in the major leagues each of the past 3 years. His lowest WAR during that span would've led the Twins in 2018. It is truly mystifying to me how much Realmuto is being underrated by Twins fans.

The O/U for the Twins this year is 84.5 wins. They are absolutely close to contending, and Realmuto would further legitimize that status. If people truly don't think the Twins are even on the verge of contention with almost their entire core in their prime, that's pretty sad. Also, I get the Kirilloff love but... folks, he hasn't played above A-ball. Haven't we learned a thing or two about the fragility of "sure thing" prospects? I'm stunned by the nonchalance around adding a potential 5-WAR player, or the notion that such a move on its own would be pointless.

I assume an extension would be part of the plan if they gave up a Kirilloff-caliber player for him. Give him a big up-front bonus to keep the later years in check. To add some perspective here: Realmuto is three months younger than Mitch Garver. You bring him in and the window is open now, as well as for the foreseeable future. We're talking about a guy with a legit case as the best catcher in baseball.

How differently might Twins fans at large view this offseason had the team succeeded in signing Yasmani Grandal? The front office came up short in its pursuit of the top free agent catcher on the market, but that doesn't mean the Twins will give up on securing an upgrade behind the dish.Robert Murray of The Athletic tweeted last week that Minnesota was one of four teams to offer a multi-year deal to Grandal before the catcher signed with Milwaukee for one year and $16 million. KSTP's Darren Wolfson did some digging of his own and confirmed the report, adding that the Twins' offer "was for multiple years in the $13M/year range." "Talks never gained traction, unfortunately," according to Wolfson. "But the Twins definitely tried." This development is striking, for a couple of reasons. 1: The Twins have been allergic to long-term commitments this offseason, so the fact they were prepared to hand a hefty one to Grandal seems significant. 2: This is especially true when you consider that the Twins were also said to be in on Robinson Chirinos before he signed with Houston. Although they've come up empty thus far, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine seemingly had their sights set on acquiring an impact catcher, and perhaps even a long-term solution at the position. It's natural to wonder what this says about their confidence in Mitch Garver sticking at the position, as well as their confidence in Jason Castro coming back from knee surgery at age 31. For now, I'm more interested in sizing up other options the Twins might consider, should they remain intent on adding a backstop. The free agency pool has mostly dried up. The "best" remaining names include Matt Wieters, Martin Maldonado and Stephen Vogt. If the Twins want to land a real difference-maker, they'll need to look to the trade market, where J.T. Realmuto's name has been floating around all offseason. Here's the skinny on Realmuto: He turns 28 in March, and has been one of the league's elite catchers for the past three years, rising to the top of the pack in 2018 when he was an All-Star and Silver Slugger. YEAR | WAR (Rank Among MLB Catchers) 2016: 3.7 (3rd) 2017: 3.8 (3rd) 2018: 4.8 (1st) He'll earn $5.9 million in 2019 and is arbitration-eligible once more in 2020. For a team looking to upgrade at catcher, the splashes don't really come bigger than Realmuto. Needless to say, the Marlins are aiming high in trade talks. The latest report has Miami targeting catcher Francisco Mejia in talks with the Padres. Mejia ranks #32 on Baseball America's new Top 100 prospects list. Last week, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reported the Marlins were seeking Keibert Ruiz in discussions with the Dodgers, who have been in hot pursuit of Realmuto for sometime. Ruiz, also a catcher, is at #20 in BA's new rankings. The Twins can't compete with those teams when it comes to young catching talent, but they do have prospects that would surely pique Miami's interest, with three making Baseball America's list (Royce Lewis at #9, Alex Kirilloff at #15, and Brusdar Graterol at #55). For what it's worth, Mr. Frisaro responded to one of my tweets on the topic by stating, "Kirilloff and you have a deal." Now, Frisaro is a reporter and not a front-office exec, so take that remark as you will. But clearly, he's got some insight into the team's thinking, and beyond that, his assertion seems completely reasonable. If it's true, and the Marlins would go for a package headlined by Kirilloff, then... that's something. I'm not saying it's a no-brainer by any means, but it would need to be strongly considered. I theorized about putting together a Kirilloff-centered package for Realmuto ahead of last year's deadline. The match makes a lot of sense for multiple reasons. By bringing in Realmuto, the Twins would add another building block and some major assurance to a shaky core. It'd vastly improve the club's outlook for both 2019 and 2020. Given that he's still fairly young and improving, a long-term extension would make sense, and I wonder if Minnesota might be able to take advantage of its short-term spending flexibility to frontload such a contract. What do you think? Is the biggest splash of this offseason yet to come? Would you be willing to part with Kirilloff as the centerpiece for baseball's reigning top catcher? Click here to view the article

Except this trend also played out prominently elsewhere around the league. If we looked at the entire list of top 50 free agents or so, and assessed how things played out in 2018, I think we'd fine more misses than hits everywhere. Look no further than Colorado's aggressive efforts to power up their bullpen through FA.

The over/under on the Twins in Vegas is 84.5 wins so I'm wondering what basis there is for this, other than outright pessimism.

Why do were care about the money? There's no difference, practically, between spending 3.5M or 1.5M on him. The only thing I care about is the roster spot. But the fact that he got both an MLB deal and a higher-than-expected salary tells us there were other teams in on Perez, creating demand. The Twins didn't agree to those terms for the hell of it. So while everyone's entitled to dislike the Perez move, understand that the Twins aren't alone in seeing something more there. I agree that it's hard to tell what that is right now, but I can assure you that plenty of better pitchers than him on paper will end up with lesser deals.

I left Rodney and Duke off because those are the kinds of low-wattage FA signings we've been seeing this year. So that kinda supports the current approach if anything. They were as good or better than plenty of the relievers who got larger guaranteed commitments elsewhere.

I think they'll push him to the bullpen if he's not effective in the rotation. In fact I wonder if they really intend to use him as a traditional "starter" at all. If he's in some sort of opener/piggybacking role, he's a little more interesting given the bullpen velo spike late last year. And then you've got plenty of flexibility in terms of managing his innings/leverage/etc.

All very valid ^ As I've written, I can understand the desire to avoid prominent free agents. But if you wanna take the frugal route there, why not trade for a big salary, or hand out some front-loaded extensions? Alas, there's still time left for that sort of thing.

Correia was a 32-year-old signed to a two-year deal with the sole purpose of eating innings, regardless of quality. There is no reason to expect the same kind of inflexibility with Perez. We're all obviously aware of his terrible past numbers but the Twins saw something here and clearly they aren't the only ones (otherwise he wouldn't have gotten an MLB deal, much less a somewhat shocking $3.5M guaranteed). One thing I don't really question about this front office is their ability to pull the plug on something that's not working. They don't get overly invested in their decisions. In fact, I think that's pretty much the story of this offseason. They're not forcing themselves to get too invested in anyone. They're trying to strike hidden values and sneaky adds. I don't blame you for skepticism but let's be honest, they got burnt whenever they went the opposite route last offseason, and in fact their best moves turned out to be those low-key sleepers (trading for Cave, signing Anibal, trading for Odorizzi). So I'm cautiously giving them the benefit of the doubt and trusting their judgement for now. That'll change if the majority of these moves fizzle and end up holding back a solid team.

Free agency. It represents a world of endless possibilities. Especially at a time where generational superstars like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are out there, openly available to all 30 teams, the free agent market offers a chance for fans to dream big. Of course, any Twins faithful who fantasized of flashy acquisitions this offseason have found themselves mostly disappointed. Minnesota's avoidance of the traditional free agency avenue has been resolute, almost as if by design. I believe there are reasons behind this approach that don't amount to, "They're cheap".Here are a few experiences that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have had with free agency since taking over the Twins front office: * In their first signature move, they quickly signed free agent Jason Castro to a three-year contract. He was solid in his first year, and the second was a total loss. Now he enters Year 3 as a fairly significant (and somewhat pricey) question mark. * In their second year, they signed Addison Reed, Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn for a combined ~$25 million. Morrison and Lynn were busts, and so to a lesser extent was Reed, who now enters Year 2 as a fairly significant (and somewhat pricey) question mark. * They made a serious bid for Yu Darvish last winter, reportedly offering more than $100 million before falling short of the Cubs and watching the right-hander immediately bomb in Chicago. * They inherited the contract of Ervin Santana, who qualifies as one of Minnesota's most successful free agent signings ever, but saw the downside of that deal as well with $13.5 million of their payroll dedicated to a guy who provided basically nothing in 2018. * They also inherited the contract of Phil Hughes, some of which they're still on the hook for this year. Granted, it was an ill-advised extension rather than Hughes' original deal that went sour, but he's another fine example of the dangers in long-term commitments to veterans – even those that are on top of their games at the time. So now we come to the team's approach this year in free agency. With the exception of Nelson Cruz, none of the players acquired by Minnesota were on those lists fans skimmed through in September and let their brains run wild, because none of them were firmly expected to be on the market. And now most players that did occupy the upper levels of those rankings are gone. Is this by design? Are the Twins attempting to take advantage of a league-wide aversion to spending by capturing quality players who are being unfairly devalued? It sure seems that way. Instead of tethering themselves to expensive, inescapable commitments for players on the higher tiers (which, as we've learned time and time again, carry no assurances) the front office is making deals on its own terms. Martin Perez on a one-year deal plus team option is actually a lot more interesting than those standard Terry Ryan flyers of yesteryear, because it has real upside. Perez doesn't turn 28 until April. If the Twins are able to unlock whatever they see in him (and I have to believe it's more than meets the eye, because other teams were interested too), they've actually found themselves an asset. The same is true of Cruz and Blake Parker, though they don't have the same long-term fit potential. One that does is Jonathan Schoop. He's probably the player we're not talking about enough. The Twins aggressively signed him one week after his non-tender from Milwaukee. He's an athletic defender, one year removed from an All-Star season, and he's averaged 25 homers in the past three seasons. Most vitally, he's only 27. Guys like this don't become available too often. And for teams that want more of a sure thing – such as the Brewers, who elected to move on – maybe he's not the best choice. But within Minnesota's developing strategy, he made all the sense in the world. Unlike the others added this winter, his contract doesn't include a 2020 option, but if he rebounds, blends into the nucleus, and likes it here? Now you might've found yourself a newly minted piece to your core. It's tough to knock any of these deals on their own. But when you look at the big picture it's easy to feel a bit underwhelmed. As someone in the forums astutely put it: "the sum is lesser than its parts." I understand and empathize with the lack of enthusiasm some are feeling. But ultimately, it's not Jed Lowrie or Adam Ottavino that's going to put fans in the seats. Winning will. You may not be jazzed about the caliber of these names. But don't conflate the current front office with the previous regime. These aren't your garden-variety bargain bin signings of the Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey ilk. There's a deeper methodology in place, and I'm sure I'm only scratching its surface. From my view, the Twins are hoping they can hit on a few of these gambles while the incumbents rebound enough to keep them hanging in a weak division. Then, around the middle of the season they can more clearly assess their position and their needs. As I concluded on Monday, the silver lining to this resource preservation is that it will give them extreme flexibility leading up to the trade deadline. The pessimistic view is that the Twins are treading water until 2020. The optimistic (and I think more realistic) view is that they're treading water until June or July. Let us not forget: The most impactful, game-changing transaction in the American League over the past two years didn't happen during the offseason. It happened when Detroit traded Justin Verlander to Houston in August of 2017. Given the league's expected landscape this summer, it's not hard to envision similar opportunities emerging in a sea of non-contenders. So, there's something to dream on. Click here to view the article

Here's my problem with the "Wait until the right moment and push your chips in" stance: Nobody knows when that right moment will be. The Twins won 71 games in 1986. They won 74 in 1990.

While it's true that the Twins pushed their payroll to unprecedented heights in 2018, it's not accurate to suggest the front office executed some sort of aggressive offseason plan that fizzled in practice. Instead, they adhered to their "opportunistic" credo, jumping on players who were passed up by other clubs in hopes of surfacing overlooked values. It didn't really work out. And this winter, the Twins have more or less done the same thing.You can make cases that C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Blake Parker and (to a lesser extent) Martin Perez are all logical, savvy additions. But you can't make the case that these players were in any kind of demand. Each was optionally let loose by his former team, and all those teams are looking to compete in 2019. The Rays, Brewers, Angels and Rangers deemed these players to not be worthwhile at their projected (non-exorbitant) 2019 salaries, so each made the active decision to move on, via non-tender/DFA/declined option. It is essentially tantamount to the way Minnesota viewed Robbie Grossman. Even Nelson Cruz fell to the Twins at a surprising bargain because the market was lukewarm on him, despite his monstrous offensive production. Seattle didn't show much interest in bringing Cruz back, and Minnesota ultimately found itself bidding against only one or two other teams. And so, when fans question – or at least attempt to critically analyze – the front office's approach this offseason, it's not so much about the collective expense for these players, which amounts to less than $32 million at a time where the team theoretically had upwards of $50 million to spend. It's more about the context of how they were acquired. The Twins have been drawing from the discard pile. Does that mean these moves are all doomed to fail? Not by any means. Personally, I have enough faith in the team's current assembly of analysts and baseball minds that I'm inclined to get behind this strategy for the most part. I like the fact that they've added several players under 30, with every signing other than Schoop coming in the form of a one-year guarantee plus team option. Those are good, team-friendly deals that strike a reasonable low-risk/medium-upside balance. What's been amiss is that clear, decisive upgrade to the pitching staff. Or that landscape-altering trade that charts a bold new direction for this perpetually stagnating franchise. I can't blame fans who feel underwhelmed with what's been acquired thus far – a collection of cast-offs and a 38-year-old DH who settled for less than almost anyone expected. The Twins still have about four weeks before their first full-squad workout in Fort Myers, so there's time yet for further additions, but one gets the sense it'll be more of the same. For better or worse, Minnesota appears content to stand pat and roll with what they've got, mixing in mostly gambles and secondary role players rather than clear-cut difference-makers. The upside is that whatever flexibility they end up preserving through these low-wattage free agent signings will potentially put them in an advantageous position around the trade deadline, should things play out as hoped in the first half. The downside is that they might be hurting their chances of reaching such a "buyer" position to begin with. Click here to view the article

I posted the average payrolls to show there is no validity to your claim that last year's increase was driven solely by the BAMtech infusion. If that was the case it would've been reflected elsewhere around the league. If you think that was some unique situation I suggest you research further; there have been several instances in recent years where MLB teams/owners received large sums of money as part of enormous MLBAM/TV contracts, and in those cases payroll was not affected. What happened last year wasn't a "coincidence." The front office saw short-term opportunities late in the offseason and ownership signed off. There's no reason to think that couldn't/shouldn't happen in this case. I honestly don't know why you and MLR have decided to grind this axe once again. The article suggests the Twins have money to spend and theorizes a $14M deal which would put them around $112M in payroll. I'm not the one confusing the issue at hand.

I'm not asking them to spend at an average or above-average level, I'm asking them to spend at a reasonable level. We're talking about signing Cody Allen, not Bryce Harper. A $115M payroll will be near the bottom 10, if not among it. Again: the average MLB payroll has increased by almost $40M during the Target Field era. Minnesota's spending has remained mostly stagnant. Context is important here.

There is no payroll "cap." All of these restrictions are self-imposed. The Twins can easily afford to spend plenty more than these baselines have established and stay within the ~50% of revenue range. I am confident in that. You and MLR are going to need to produce some actual data and evidence to convince me otherwise. You cite this BAMtech windfall as the reason the Twins boosted their spending last year, which is completely unsubstantiated. Every owner received the same infusion, and the average overall spending hardly budged, which is why I shared those annual league-wide averages.

Ticket sales are no longer an overwhelming component of the revenue equation for baseball teams. Money is pouring in across the league from giant media deals. The notion being suggested above that last year's spending increase was driven by some isolated cash infusion is misguided. The game is flush with money. Also, declining to invest in your team because a lack of quality is deterring fan interest seems like a poor strategy to me.