Nick Nelson

No one thinks a .098 BAA or 1.46 ERA are sustainable for Gonsalves. The point is that there are underlying elements of his performance during that stretch that seem legit. He doesn't get hit hard and that tends to limit the damage on balls in play.

When I posted my series ranking the Top 20 Minnesota Twins assets over the past couple of weeks, there were plenty of quibbles and disagreements expressed, serving to me as a good gauge of how TD's community at large is feeling about various players. One asset that many people seem to be down on is Stephen Gonsalves, which isn't too surprising. But to me, he seems like a player worthy of a closer look.In his final three appearances for the Twins in 2018 – all coming in relief of an "opener" – Gonsalves threw 12 1/3 innings, faced 50 batters, and allowed four hits. All singles. That's a .098 batting average and a .098 slugging percentage. While it was a small sample, and more than offset by the .414 AVG and .621 SLG he allowed in his first four starts, this unhittable stretch was still noteworthy. It's noteworthy because it mirrors the formula that brought Gonsalves immense success at every level of the minors. The left-hander has a fairly rare strength working in his favor, and it was on display during an otherwise rough MLB debut: He is very, very hard to square up. And while other aspects of his game may need a lot of work, that's not a bad foundation. *** It's important to keep this in mind: Gonsalves has lots of development ahead of him yet. What we saw in 2018 was (hopefully) not the finished product. He's still only 24 and has two options remaining, so through next year, the Twins can shuttle him to Triple-A as needed to work with Rochester pitching coach Stu Cliburn on the flaws that are holding back his game. In many ways, Gonsalves is the prototype for a pitcher who takes extra time to reach his potential – tall, long and gangly, with inconsistent mechanics that require extensive refinement. I'm not saying that means he will reach his potential, only that he has those makings. Control has been an issue for Gonsalves all along, and his wildness came to roost in Minnesota, where he issued 22 walks in 24 2/3 innings of work. In Triple-A his 13.4% BB-rate was the highest out of 35 pitchers to throw 100+ innings. When Gonsalves is outside of the zone, he doesn't really get people to chase, and when he's in the zone he doesn't really get people to miss. Gonsalves allows quite a bit of contact. But he doesn't allow much loud contact. In 23 outings between Double-A and Triple-A before his call-up in 2018, he held opponents to a .184 average and .283 slugging percentage. He had a six-start stretch from June to July in Rochester where he didn't allow a single extra-base hit. Despite being a heavy fly ball pitcher, he has the same minuscule HR/9 rate in the minors as ground ball specialist extraordinaire Kohl Stewart. Even though he got knocked around in his first exposure to the majors, yielding a 6.57 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in seven total appearances, Gonsalves allowed just two homers and seven total XBHs while facing 122 total batters. His track record tells us there's nothing fluky about that. *** At present, the Twins have an open vacancy in their rotation behind Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda. There are a number of candidates to fill it, and Gonsalves isn't at the front of the line. He's not as good as Fernando Romero and he doesn't have Adalberto Mejia's out-of-options impetus. So, barring injuries, I'd say Gonsalves' chances of winning a job out of camp are very low, even if the Twins don't sign another starter. But that's just fine. The Twins' mission for the next two seasons – between Wes Johnson, Jeremy Hefner, Cliburn, Mike McCarthy, and the rest of the pitching braintrust – is to iron out the kinks in Gonsalves' game and turning him into a quality option for the back half of the rotation. The southpaw's weaknesses are evident, but don't sleep on the strengths that carried him to a 2.46 ERA and 6.4 H/9 rate in 600 minor-league innings – as well as a stunningly strong finish in his first big-league season. Click here to view the article

Buxton pushed himself back on the field to try and help the team, to his own detriment. I'd think that's the commitment of thing you want to reward. I guarantee you there's not a single person in the Twins system who doubts Buxton's skill, ability or effort. The message sent by keeping Buxton off the September roster to preserve his service time is far more harmful, frankly.

The thing to keep in mind is how young Buxton still is. He can sign an extension that buys out two years of free agency and still hit the open market at age 30.

Even a league-average swing-and-miss staff would represent huge progress compared to where the Twins were a few short years ago. Also, the aggregate MLB numbers I listed before included relievers as well -- if you take them out of the equation, starters combined for a 10.2% whiff rate last year. All five 2019 Twins starters could easily be above that. And the bullpen has its share of strong whiff rates too (May 15.4%, Hildy 13%, Rogers 11.4%, etc)

Herrera comes off the market, going to a rival:

Tweeted about this, but these two numbers give me pause with Parker: 1) His outstanding 2017 numbers were aided by a .219 BABIP (.288 career) 2) His decent numbers in 2018 were aided by an 89.4% strand rate (3rd-highest in MLB)

He and his agent would be silly to say no if the money is right. Buxton is 4 years away from free agency. Regardless of his feelings toward the team, he's here for a while. And given his history of injuries, financial security is important to him.

I don't know that it was really a dig. This is a results-based business. It's noteworthy when a guy gets extended after three straight terrible seasons in terms of W/L. And he was fired a year later.

Extensions are usually signed/announced in spring training. So I wouldn't make too much out of that yet. But if the season starts and they don't have at least Berrios locked up long-term, I'll be really disappointed.

Looking back, the 2013 season was probably the low point of Minnesota's competitive lull. Not in terms of results – we all know nothing can top 2016 – but in terms of stagnating strategy and vision. That 2013 team epitomized the negative traits that torpedoed the Twins out of contention, and into a lengthy rebuild that continues now. Five years later, it's interesting to take a step back and recognize just how much has changed – and how drastically the Twins have pivoted to adapt in the new era of baseball. Better late than never.The worst thing that happened to the Twins in 2013 was Joe Mauer's concussion. No question. That drastically altered the franchise's course, and couldn't have been avoided. But more broadly, there were a lot of things to hate about that season. The five pitchers to receive the most starts for Minnesota were Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno and Pedro Hernandez. Opening Day starter Vance Worley posted a 7.21 ERA in 10 starts and was gone a year later. A punchless lineup produced only 614 runs, and nobody hit even 20 homers. Chris Parmelee, Pedro Florimon and Clete Thomas (!) all received 300+ PA. It was a terribly built team that performed terribly, getting outscored by 174 runs. And as Twins fans rung in the new year of 2014, they had little concrete reason to hope for better days ahead. Ron Gardenhire had received a two-year extension in November, despite overseeing three straight seasons of 95+ losses. Terry Ryan remained firmly entrenched in the GM's chair. Today, as we head into 2019, all has changed. The Twins have a new manager, new front-office leadership, new personnel everywhere, and a completely new set of guiding philosophies. I think this is reflected best by the dramatic reshaping of the pitching staff. In 2013, the Twins had zero starting pitchers with a swinging strike rate in the double digits. Rookies Kyle Gibson and Cole De Vries (who made two starts) tied for the team lead at 8.2%. The rotation collectively averaged 4.9 K/9. In 2019, the Twins currently have four slotted starters. Here are the SwStr% and K/9 rates from their most recent seasons: Jose Berrios (2018): 11.3%, 9.5 Kyle Gibson (2018): 11.5%, 8.1 Jake Odorizzi (2018): 10.2%, 8.9 Michael Pineda (2017): 12.1%, 8.6 We can throw in Fernando Romero as the fifth starter for now (10.6% swinging strikes, 7.3 K/9), and you've got a full rotation where the lowest whiff and strikeout rates are better than the highest in 2013. Sure, this is reflective of the game's general evolution to some extent (MLB's overall swinging strike rate was up from 9.4% in 2013 to 10.7% in 2018), but it also speaks to the front office's refreshing focus on stuff, velocity and missed bats. At almost every stop, they have sought and elevated pitchers with high-powered arms. Pitch to contact is dead. The Twins now pack much more firepower on the offensive side, too. As mentioned, the 2013 team – a mixture of light-hitting profiles and fading former sluggers – had zero players reach 20 homers. The projected 2019 Twins lineup has six players projected to hit 20+ (per FanGraphs). If Miguel Sano gets healthy and rebounds, you've got two of baseball's hardest-hitting players potentially coming at you back-to-back: Download attachment: hardhitleaders.png Through the additions of Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron (not to mention Jake Cave, Tyler Austin, Logan Morrison and others) the Twins have clearly emphasized building a threatening lineup full of aggressive, ferocious swingers. If it means sacrificing some OBP and defense, so be it. It's a bold gambit, but at least it's an assertive one. I don't know if the 2019 Twins will be successful. No one does. But I do know this much: They will be wildly different in terms of fundamental composition than those bland, lackluster teams that sucked the life out of Target Field in the earlier part of the decade. For that, I'm very thankful. And excited. Suddenly, we're only five weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Ft. Myers. Click here to view the article

I wouldn't call it a waste. The first half-season after being drafted is generally about getting a guy acclimated to the pro culture and lifestyle, as opposed to putting them immediately on the fast-track to the majors. If Larnach follows the same path as Rooker next year he could potentially be poised for an early-2020 debut. What's "out of reach" for Buxton? He hit 10 HR in September of 2016 alone. He stole 16 bases on 16 attempts in the second half of 2017. He was also named the most valuable defensive player in baseball that year. It's not like he hasn't shown his ability on the field.

You might be right (probably are) but right now all we have to go by is 177 PA in rookie-ball and Low-A. He did what you expect from a first-round bat-first college draft pick, and hasn't been meaningfully challenged yet. If he puts together a quality first full season he'll be on here. He's really smart and sophisticated in his mindset about hitting, and he has an uncommon ability to drive and elevate the ball, which points to sustainably prolific power. This article calls him one of the top breakout candidates in the minors for that reason.

Pitchers who can throw in the high 90s, miss bats, and potentially stick as starters are always going to be in high demand. You can never have too many. Rosario and Kepler are both very good defensive outfielders – also a generally valuable profile. It's not clear to me that Larnach or Rooker are going to have much of any defensive value, which means they basically HAVE to hit to be valuable. Both show a lot of promise in that department but we just need to see more. When you start your career toward the bottom of the defensive spectrum there's a lot less margin for coming up short of offensive expectations/potential.

Thorpe was right on the fringe. Might've been #21. But I've just heard/read enough lukewarm reports on him to temper my optimism at this time, despite the undeniably outstanding performance last year. BP has him 8th among Twins prospects and BA doesn't even have him in their top 10.

Here's the way I was looking at it, when thinking about prospects compared to presently established big-leaguers: Is this prospect good enough that I could trade them right now and get a majorly impactful player that would considerably alter my short-term fortunes? With Lewis, Kirilloff, and Graterol, I think the answer is yes. With anyone else (at least on their own), I'm not so sure. That's why the true top-tier prospects are separated from the rest in this equation. Nick Gordon would probably bring back more in a trade than, say, C.J. Cron. But you're not getting any huge difference-maker for him. More than likely you're getting an okay MLB asset or a similar minor-league lotto ticket. Also, there's no logic to trading Gordon with his value all the way down so the point is moot.

This is the last of a four-part series ranking the top 20 player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization. The idea is to think solely in terms of commodity valuation, factoring in things like age, cost, control, and risk management in answering the question: which players are most essential to this team's vision? Previously we've looked at Nos. 20 through 16, Nos. 15 through 11 and Nos. 10 through 6. Today we bring it home with my picks for the Top 5.5. Brusdar Graterol, RHP (20) 2018 Ranking: N/A By the time Graterol turned 20, on August 26th, he had already logged 50 innings in the Advanced-A Florida State League, striking out 46 and allowing zero home runs. As one of the youngest players to throw a pitch in the FSL, the hard-throwing righty was experiencing immediate success. This came as no surprise to those who'd watched him obliterate the Midwest League for two months. Powered by a fastball that reaches triple digits and a plus slider, the stocky young right-hander has been climbing national prospect lists. There's a considerable amount of risk here given that he hasn't yet reached the high minors and lacks a bona fide third pitch, but the dazzling upside outweighs it all. This is the kind of prized arm any franchise covets. 4. Alex Kirilloff, OF (21) 2018 Ranking: 20 Kirilloff's 2018 was, simply put, one of the most impressive seasons we've ever seen from a Twins prospect. He led the Midwest League in OPS (.999) during his first half, then ranked third in the Florida State League (.943) after being promoted. The two players ahead of him in the FSL were three and four years older. Between the two levels of A-ball, Kirilloff batted .348 with 44 doubles, 20 homers and 101 RBIs. "It didn’t take Kirilloff long to outgrow Max Kepler comparisons and head straight for Christian Yelich territory," wrote Baseball America in ranking him the organization's second-best prospect. Yelich was of course the 2018 NL MVP. Kirilloff entered the year with only 55 games of pro experience. He ends it as one of the top hitting prospects in the minors, with a sweet lefty swing that generates power to all fields and rarely fails to connect. He projects as a middle-of-the-order bat and could arrive as soon as 2019. 3. Byron Buxton, OF (25) 2018 Ranking: 1 "Buxton impacts games in so many ways, bringing entirely new levels of entertainment and excitement for the viewer. He received MVP votes and a Gold Glove at in his age-23 season, and I'm guessing he'll be getting plenty more of both in the coming seasons. Humble, likable and hardworking, he's a perfect face for the franchise." So I wrote one year ago in naming Buxton the organization's most valuable asset. All of those things are still true, at least in theory, though he needs to be on the field and getting on base in order to entertain and excite anyone. Those things didn't happen in 2018, when he played only 28 games for the Twins and posted a .183 OBP, plagued by injuries, misfortune, and perhaps some self-inflicted aggravation due to overcompensating. It was a lost year, but the Twins didn't lose a year of control, thanks to their controversial decision to snub Buxton in September and delay his free agent eligibility until after 2022. He remains one of the most potentially impactful players in the game. We've already seen his offensive floor (basement, really) and there's nowhere to go but up. But without question, the center fielder needs to show he can stay healthy and sustain some kind of production at the dish. I anticipate a monster year. 2. Jose Berrios, RHP (24) 2018 Ranking: 3 In 1991, the Twins drafted a prep right-hander named Brad Radke. Three years later, a child by the name of Jose Berrios was born in Bayamon, Puerto Rico. Berrios was one year old when Radke debuted in the majors, embarking on a career that would be criminally underappreciated due to coinciding with baseball's steroid-fueled offensive eruption. I'm not here to debate whether Radke could accurately be described as a front-of-the-rotation starter. But I can say with confidence he's the closest the thing this franchise has been able to draft and develop in that mold in the last three decades. At least he was, up until Mr. Berrios arrived. Berrios didn't win 20 games in his age 24 season, as Radke did, but he was an All-Star, backing up his outstanding 2017 with another stellar effort while extending to almost 200 innings. His ascent thus far has been unusually devoid of turbulence – few young pitchers perform as consistently well, and stay as reliably healthy – which seems to validate the hurler's legendary work ethic. He's still got more ceiling above him as he reaches his mid-20s, but already Berrios is a playoff-caliber starter, with four years of control remaining. 1. Royce Lewis, SS (19) 2018 Ranking: 2 Lewis was already challenging Buxton for the top spot on this list a year ago (an amazing feat, considering where Buck was at). Then he went and took Single-A by storm, posting an .803 OPS between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers while facing almost exclusively older competition. During his masterful 2018 campaign, Lewis importantly did two things that were by no means a given: he hit for power and he excelled at shortstop. Many scouts assumed Lewis would develop some pop eventually as he filled out, but it was downright stunning to see the skinny teenager bust out for 29 doubles and 14 home runs in his first full season. When he was drafted, scouts also expressed skepticism about his long-term viability at shortstop (center field was viewed as a somewhat likely fallback) but that's fading. "Early returns on his glove suggest he can not only stick at the 6, but be above-average there," wrote Baseball Prospectus recently. A big part of these rankings is factoring in risk, and obviously there is always inherent uncertainty when you're talking about a 19-year-old who hasn't reached the high minors yet. But, while I know it sounds utterly ridiculous to talk about "sure things" as we watch Buxton and Miguel Sano slide down this list... Lewis really does have that vibe. His athleticism is surpassed only by his aptitude, and I've honestly never heard better reviews of a player his age when it comes to makeup, poise and adaptability. The Twins have a superstar-caliber talent in Lewis. They might have four or five of them listed in this article alone. If enough plays out as hoped with the top quintet, and a few things break right elsewhere in the Top 20, you've got a championship nucleus within five years. RECAPPING THE RANKINGS: 20. Nick Gordon, SS 19. C.J. Cron, 1B 18. Adalberto Mejia, LHP 17. Jake Cave, OF 16. Wander Javier, SS 15. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP 14. Miguel Sano, 3B 13. Kyle Gibson, RHP 12. Trevor May, RHP 11. Mitch Garver, C 10. Taylor Rogers, LHP 9. Max Kepler, OF 8. Eddie Rosario, OF 7. Jorge Polanco, SS 6. Fernando Romero, RHP 5. Brusdar Graterol, RHP 4. Alex Kirilloff, OF 3. Byron Buxton, OF 2. Jose Berrios, RHP 1. Royce Lewis, SS A few parting thoughts as we reflect on the whole list... Where are Trevor Larnach and Brent Rooker? I certainly think both these players can be important to the franchise's future, but from my view, the presence of both (and the similar functional profiles) makes each less vital at the moment... if that makes sense. Should Rooker fail to pan out, they have Larnach for essentially the same role, on a similar timeline. And vice versa. Since Rooker was good-not-great in Double-A, and Larnach hasn't played above Low-A, I don't feel we have enough solid data to solidly determine which is the safer bet to make an impact. Toughest calls One thing I like about this exercise is that it forces me to think about things in different ways. For instance, I've never really pondered whether Fernando Romero or Brusdar Graterol is more valuable to the Twins. Both have big upside but Graterol's currently looks quite a bit higher. Romero is already here but Graterol doesn't look that far off. I'm guessing (but not certain) Graterol would bring back more in a trade, though both have appeal. Another tough call was Eddie Rosario versus Max Kepler. Kepler has an extra year of control, and superior defense. Rosario is the more explosive hitter (and all-around player) with his value trending up. I gave Eddie the nod but could've easily gone the other way. Poignant pushback Based on feedback, the most controversial rankings seem to be C.J. Cron, Jake Cave and Mitch Garver (too high), and Miguel Sano and Nick Gordon (too low). Solid arguments were made and if I re-did these rankings I'd probably move several of those guys around a bit. In particular I was likely too hard on Sano, overemphasizing his stock-drop effect. He's an important player to this franchise, no question. Placing Cruz I put this list together a few days before the Twins agreed to terms with Nelson Cruz, which is why he's absent. Given his immense short-term impact and delightfully team-friendly contact, Cruz would certainly factor in somewhere despite his age. I'm thinking maybe around #15? Where would you slot him? Feel free to air any final grievances and pick your bones with the Top 5 below. Thanks to all who read and commented. Click here to view the article

Correct. I also suspect Schoop would be an option there if things were to go awry with Sano. The Twins can replace Buxton with a body in CF, yes. They can't replace what he brings to the table though. Not even close.

Byron Buxton doesn't need to be a great hitter to be a considerably valuable player. When healthy Buxton is – one can very reasonably argue – THE most valuable defender AND base runner in all of Major League Baseball. The measuring stick with these two is not at all the same. Anyway, the point was not to compare their performances in the minor leagues. The point was that, at the end of the season, Buxton was raking and healthy (then given an extra month to heal up even more). Sano was struggling at the plate, and then he significantly re-injured the leg that had bothered him all year. And that is where we stand at this present moment in time. One guy carried a slump and a worrisome injury into the offseason. The other, who is a fundamentally better player, was healthy and hitting as well as he had all year. This assessment is being made as of the end of the 2018 season. You're welcome to disagree but don't say there's no evidence, because it's there and it's been clearly explained. (Also, ill-gotten as some might think it is, the extra year of team control at age 28 with Buxton is immensely valuable in this discussion.)

Great list! Well reasoned. Can't quibble with it much.

In general, yes, I agree. But with Sano I think there's more than natural variation at play. He hasn't been the same hitter since the first half of 2017. Either pitchers have figured out how to beat him, or his approach/swing has fundamentally deteriorated, or the injuries have really been taking a toll. Either way, I don't think you can take for granted that it's going to turn around in short order. (Though, to reiterate: I am optimistic. This ranking is only a reflection of visible trends.)

Sano since the 2017 ASB: .210/.291/.370 in 437 PA Adrianza's since 2017: .256/.309/.380 in 552 PA (didn't feel like doing manual calculations for post-break split in '17)