Nick Nelson

? May had literally never missed time with an arm injury before the UCL tear.

With the offseason underway, there is naturally a widespread focus on signings and trades to bring in new talent. But I think we all fundamentally understand that, in order for the Twins to turn things around and reach their potential in short order, it'll need to be driven by drastic internal improvements.Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are the headliners in that discussion, with good reason. Who knows what the future holds for those two. But elsewhere, I see four opportunities for the Twins to work with what they have, get a little creative, and maybe shore up some key areas of uncertainty. 1: Have Max Kepler split time between between the outfield and first base One of the Dodgers' most valuable players during their run to the World Series this year was Cody Bellinger, whose versatility and strong bat made him a key asset. During the regular season, Bellinger played in every single game, making 85 starts at first base and 50 in center field. That's a combination you rarely see, because few players possess the skill set to make it work. Bellinger does, and so does Kepler. Although the latter has played first base sparsely in the majors (just 4 1/3 total innings), he made a few dozen starts there as a minor-leaguer. Given his athleticism and coordination, it stands to reason he'd be solid at least and perhaps outstanding. We already know what he can do in the outfield. Kepler's become one of the league's best defensive right fielders and he's shown quite well during his 500 career innings in center as well. Having him split time between the first base and right field, while occasionally spelling Buxton against righties in center, would enable the Twins to extract big value of from Kepler, even if his offensive production remains somewhat modest. And if he takes the step forward we're all hoping for with his bat? Well, a season closely mirroring Bellinger's 2018 (.260/.343/.470, 25 HR, 3.6 WAR) is hardly out of the question. Committing to this arrangement would give the front office much more flexibility in attacking the offseason. With Kepler adding some much-needed left-handed balance to a first base mix that now includes CJ Cron and Tyler Austin, Minnesota can feel better about rostering both (should they desire). And with a bunch of playing time opening up in right field, the Twins can go out and add another RF/DH type who can thump. 2: Use Fernando Romero out of the bullpen I'm the biggest Fernando Romero advocate you're gonna find. I've been steadfast in my belief he's got the makings of a workhorse, front-of-rotation starter. And I could still see it. But at this point, even I can't deny the obvious logic in activating the righty out of the bullpen. In a way it feels wasteful to limit Romero to short stints, with his big frame and ability to maintain high-90s heat late into games. But despite having the build and sustainable velocity of a 200-IP starter, he hasn't held up. Romero lost two consecutive years of his development to recurring injuries, and since returning he's been susceptible to late-season breakdowns. He might just be better suited for a relief role. Luckily, that's not the same diminishment it was once was. As relievers become more and more impactful, a high-powered arm capable of throwing multiple innings is an advantageous weapon indeed. I'd love to see Romero open the season with the Twins and fill a role similar to the one Jeff Passan envisions here for newly signed Jesse Chavez of the Rangers: 3: Unleash Trevor May as a starter (or "primary") On the flip side, we have here a current reliever who might be a better fit for the rotation. Trevor May of course finished the 2018 season at closer, and he looked downright phenomenal. I know some might be asking, why mess with a good thing? That's fair, but I'm just not ready to give up on May as a starter. He was shaping up nicely in that capacity during spring of 2017 before requiring Tommy John surgery. Unlike Romero, he's mostly been very durable and his arm has fared well under a starter's workload (last year notwithstanding). Also: With at least four quality pitches, May absolutely has the repertoire depth to take on lineups multiple times. Use him as a traditional starter, or as a primary following an opener, as you please. I think May has what it takes to be an effective pitcher over 150 innings. If it doesn't take, they can send him back to the bullpen; it's much easier to make that transition in-season than the reverse. And it feels like if Minnesota keeps May in the bullpen next spring, then it becomes permanent. That's not necessarily a bad thing given what we saw in the second half. But still, give him one more shot. 4: Give Willians Astudillo 500 at-bats Yes, I yearn for the sheer joy of watching Astudillo play everyday. Who doesn't? But there's also a solid case to be made for turning the scrappy 27-year-old into a fixture and seeing what he can do. All he's done lately is hit. In 2017 he batted .342 with a .928 OPS at Class-AAA Reno in Arizona's system, and then he batted .319 in the Venezuelan Winter League. The Twins signed him and watched him post a .782 OPS at Triple-A before finishing with a 22-game stretch in the majors that saw him hit .378/.397/.554 with two strikeouts in 78 plate appearances. Accounting for his first stint with the Twins, Astudillo appeared at five different positions (C, 2B, 3B, LF, CF) while posting an .887 OPS as a rookie. Now, he's back in Venezuela, batting .353 for Caribes with one strikeout in 156 PAs. When you look at Astudillo and his long-term track record, it's tempting to dismiss his run of success as a fluke. But when a guy literally almost never whiffs, and consistently makes good contact (his soft-hit rate in 2018 was lowest of all Twins other than Jake Cave and Joe Mauer), it's a decent formula for high averages. As we're seeing. Plus, Astudillo can plug in at catcher, third base, DH and elsewhere when needed. By rotating him around and finding a place for him most days, the Twins can keep other starters fresh and rested – perhaps most importantly, Sano and Mitch Garver. Meanwhile, Rocco Baldelli keeps a pesky spark plug in his lineup regularly. Astudillo is beloved by teammates, cherished by fans, and admired by not-traditionally-athletic types everywhere. His all-out effort and hustle set a great example. There is of course risk in counting on Astudillo, signed as a minor-league free agent almost exactly one year ago, for such a prominent role. But the Twins are in position to take some risks and this feels like one worth taking. That's all I've got for now. What say you all? Like these ideas? Hate 'em? Got an outside-the-box notion of your own? Let's hear it in the comments. Click here to view the article

I mean yeah, if you wanna make decisions on the basis of one year while ignoring track record and projection, sure. Carlos Santana is neither ancient (he's 32) nor injury-ravaged (he's never made fewer than 600 PAs in a season). The implication that he's breaking down is not supported by evidence. He had a bad month of April this year and then he was his normal self (.808 OPS).

Carlos Santana's WAR in 2017: 2.9 Robbie Grossman's career WAR: 2.6 C'mon

Santana would've ranked first or second among Twins regulars in OBP in each of the last 6 years. He's also been extremely durable and extremely consistent. With Mauer departing, he's the kinda player MN badly needs. Another free-swinger with mediocre on-base skills and some power? Meh. They got that in spades.

Austin (age 26): .232/.290/.469 (.758) Cron (through age 26): .267/.308/.453 (.760) I'll grant that Cron is better right now but from my view Austin has same/equal upside, and with where this team's at I'm not sure Cron's a better fit by any means.

"Shows to be a better hitter" in what? Four weeks of spring training games? Do you think this FO is making decisions on that basis? Do you want them to?

Did the Twins create customized "Welcome to MN" graphics when they claimed Michael Reed? I get what you're saying -- this move isn't permanent by any stretch -- but suggesting it's the equivalent to claiming some random AAAA waiver-wire fodder is inaccurate. I feel quite confident that the Twins are planning on carrying Cron in 2019 unless something else comes up.

Yeah I'm confused by why Cron's ability to hit LHP is a positive, since that's easily Austin's biggest skill and he's way better at it. You're only reinforcing the redundancy (very good post otherwise tho, Pseudo). Ha, there were pros in there (2018 stats, strong hitting pedigree, fewer weaknesses than Austin)! I just didn't lay them out as distinctly as the crons.

The downside is that he goes back to being baseline Cron – good enough to run with for awhile, but a one-dimensional, 1 WAR player – and things don't work out with Austin or Sano, and suddenly the Twins have treaded water on trying to find a real solution at first base. It just wouldn't be an especially imaginative or high-upside splash at one of the team's key areas of opportunity for adding offense. There's a world of possibilities out there. But again, I understand that it's very early and nothing is final.

On Monday, the Minnesota Twins announced that they'd claimed first baseman C.J. Cron off waivers, which is great news because it provided me an opportunity to use the terrible title pun you see above. (Yes, I'm aware Cron's last name isn't actually pronounced like 'con' but LEMME HAVE MY FUN.) Is Cron's addition good news for other, more legitimate reasons? Let's take a look-see.Cron was available on waivers after the Tampa Bay Rays surprisingly designated him for assignment last week. They were clearing room to load up their 40-man roster with younger talent, and shaving off some 2019 payroll as well. Cron is expected to earn around $5 million in arbitration next year, and is under team control in 2020 as well. Let's start with the positives: He's coming off a breakout age-28 season in which he slashed .253/.323/.493 with 30 home runs and 74 RBIs. His 2.1 WAR would've ranked fourth among Twins position players. Although Cron took his game to a new level in 2018, it's not like it came out of nowhere. He was once an elite college slugger, putting up a 1.300 OPS in both his sophomore and junior years at Utah before the Angels selected him 17th overall in 2011. He was the top first baseman selected. He has an .836 career OPS in the minors and has also been a consistently solid hitter in the big leagues. Although his 108 OPS+ heading into 2018 was unspectacular for someone with minimal defensive value, he notably hasn't tanked at any point; in parts of five MLB seasons Cron has never finished with an OPS below .739. Of course, the fact that he's a formerly fringey player coming off a career-best slugging performance with the Rays means Cron is bound to draw unfavorable associations with Logan Morrison, who fizzled in Minnesota after joining up under similar circumstances last year. In a way, such comparisons are clearly misguided. These are two completely different players, and not all – or even most – who break out in their late 20s experience immediate and drastic regression. With that said, there are some substantive parallels between the two that make this a questionable move, from my view. 1: Cron is redundant on the Twins roster. When they signed Morrison in February, he seemed like a bit of an odd fit – a lefty-swinging first baseman on a team that already had one in Joe Mauer. Of course, finding Morrison ABs wasn't really gonna be an issue if he hit like had the year before, and that's also true enough for Cron, who I find to be an even odder fit. Cron is a righty-swinging 1B/DH added to a roster that already has exactly that in Tyler Austin. Granted, Austin's weaknesses are far more glaring – namely his .290 career OBP, 37% strikeout rate as a big-leaguer, and terrible numbers against righties – but he's also two years younger and about 10% the expected cost. It's kinda hard to see Minnesota carrying both Cron and Austin next year, given their lack of complementary traits. Austin will be out of options in spring training. I'm not saying the Twins should be fully committed to a guy with his flaws, but Cron is an odd choice to push or replace him. Seems like either a more significant upgrade to place in front of Austin, or a lefty swinger to optimize for Austin's platoon splits, would make a lot more sense. In fairness, the Twins aren't committed to Cron – they could cut him before the end of spring training at a negligible cost – but I suspect they wouldn't make this claim if they didn't (at least presently) intend to keep him. 2: Cron's massive power outburst looks like an outlier against his career. By hitting 38 home runs for the Rays in 2017, Morrison obliterated his previous career high (23). The same is true for Cron's 30 in 2018, which nearly doubled his prior peak (16). In each case, the lift in long balls was driven by a suddenly elite barrel percentage – Morrison's 12.8% in 2017 was among the league's top 5% of hitters and Cron's 12.2% this year was in the top 8%. Their breakouts also coincided with new career highs in strikeout rate, with each ranking among the highest 10% of hitters for the first time. So, there are similarities that go beyond "dudes from Tampa who hit a bunch of home runs." But again, none of their shared traits guarantee regression by any means, and who knows how much Morrison's drop-off was influenced by a hip injury that eventually required surgery. This leaves us with little reason to view Cron's emergence with major skepticism. Except for this... 3: Despite coming off a career year, in his prime, Cron drew minimal interest around the league. Ranking seventh in the majors in home runs at age 29, right before hitting the open market, seemingly should've teed up Morrison as a red-hot commodity. Yet, the Rays made no real effort to bring him back, and in fact Morrison waited until the end of February before settling for a one-year, $6.5 million with the Twins. Meanwhile, Cron's availability hasn't been a secret; Rays beat writer Marc Topkin suggested at the beginning of November that a Cron trade "seems likely," and added that Tampa was seeking "more of a feared overall hitter." When they couldn't trade him before last week's roster deadline, the Rays instead designated Cron for assignment. And when they still couldn't find a taker with reduced leverage in DFA limbo, they let him hit waivers, where Cron was passed up by a number of teams before Minnesota took him. That is just awfully conspicious for a guy with Cron's combination of age, upward trajectory, team control, and reasonable salary. My read is that teams largely aren't sold on his evolution as a hitter. And up until 2018 Cron just wasn't a very valuable asset, totalling 2.0 WAR in more than 400 games. His solid OPS figures have always been heavily SLG-driven (arguably less valuable than OBP, especially on a team like the Twins) and his walk rates have always been subpar. In general, modern front offices are trending away from these sorts of inflexible, slow-moving, free-swinging power hitters. And the Twins are now at the forefront of this movement, which makes the claim a puzzling one. This isn't the kind of FO that gets starry-eyed over 30 home runs, nor is it one to downplay the restricting aspects of rostering a player like Cron – especially in addition to an Austin AND Miguel Sano. So, I can only deduce they're really seeing something here. Perhaps the Twins were further compelled to action by new skipper Rocco Baldelli, who became very familiar with Cron as a Rays coach this year. While tempting, given the dearth of other things to discuss, let us not over-inflate the magnitude of this move. We're not even in December. Cron might not be here in February, or January for that matter (this front office isn't averse to switching course when circumstances change – just ask Jaime Garcia or Anibal Sanchez). But at the very least, it's an interesting move. Not interesting in the 'outside the box, forward-thinking, blatantly clever' kinda way I'm hoping to see from the Twins this offseason. But interesting anyway. What say you? Are you more drawn to the pros or Crons... er, cons? Click here to view the article

The Twins head into this offseason with bullpen upgrades among their most glaring needs. This is largely because their boldest investment to address that unit a year ago has failed to pay dividends. Not only was Addison Reed's first year with Minnesota a disappointment, but his uncertain status going forward creates planning headaches in 2019. The only thing guaranteed with Reed for next year is his hefty salary. Can the Twins find a way to derive value from it?Between 2016 and 2017, no major-league pitcher made more appearances than Reed, who piled up 157 appearances for the Mets and Red Sox. The Twins signed him to a two-year, $16.75 million contract with hopes he'd become a stalwart in their bullpen. Paul Molitor tried to use him as such, deploying the right-hander 40 times through the team's first 84 games, but this time around Reed's arm wasn't up to the task. In his 41st outing, just ahead of the All-Star break, he coughed up three runs in the ninth inning of a loss to the Royals, adding to an extended run of poor performance, and was placed on the disabled list with right triceps tendinitis. The time off didn't cure what ailed him. As you can see in the chart below (via Brooks Baseball), Reed's velocity was at dire levels in the final months of the 2018 season: Download attachment: reed5yearvelo.png His results matched: In 14 appearances after returning from the DL in late July, Reed allowed a .302/.318/.524 slash line, striking out only seven batters in 15 innings with a lowly 8% swinging strike rate. It's about what you'd expect to get from a random minor-league journeyman rounding out the pen, not from your prized offseason upgrade. In 2019, Reed will be back, with his $8.5 million salary making him one of the team's highest-paid players. The hope, of course, is that he'll recapture his previous ability and fill the role originally envisioned for him. But can we realistically expect that? Well, the bad news is that reduced velocity and hittable stuff appeared to be Reed's new realities by the end of his 2018 campaign. While he was healthy enough to pitch late in the season, Molitor used him rarely, and never in close games. Reed often failed to even touch 90 on the gun with his once-potent fastball. In his first 10 appearances off the DL, he induced one or zero swinging strikes in nine of them. Distressing signs from a guy who hasn't yet turned 30. The Twins have to hope this was, more or less, a lengthy bout with dead arm. To my knowledge, Reed hasn't undergone any kind of corrective procedure, so he'll surely spend his offseason resting and strengthening. Sometimes, that does the trick. I can't think of any examples offhand but it does happen. (Maybe readers can think up some names out in the comments?) This isn't the kind of front office that'll fail to turn over any stones in assessing a problem, especially one as impactful to their 2019 planning as Reed and his contract, so I'm not inclined to believe there's any major ligament issue being overlooked, though it does bear noting that tricep injuries are often precursors to Tommy John surgery. The Twins revamped their medical staff last offseason and recently brought in a new strength and conditioning team, so we've gotta have confidence that they are making solid, well-informed decisions on this front. I would imagine that Reed has a very specific program in place for the coming winter. It's also promising that he'll have two new important voices surrounding him. Pitching coach Wes Johnson has long been known as a "velocity guru," who emphasizes lower-body involvement and takes full advantage of available technology to help his pitchers improve. Sounds like exactly the kind of instructor Reed could use. The Twins also have a fresh assistant pitching coach in Jeremy Hefner, who was already in the organization but will now be present in the bullpen to assist Reed more directly. Hefner is reputedly highly-regarded for his ability to break down video, and may form an empathetic connection with Reed, only three years his junior. Hefner is no stranger to elbow problems, having undergone two Tommy John surgeries before retiring a few years ago. I liken it to the dynamic between Rocco Baldelli and Byron Buxton; there's a unique perspective and resonance to be gained from having walked in a player's shoes in the not-too-distant past. Even if the Twins aren't able to juice up Reed's throwing speed again, Hefner may help guide Reed toward effectiveness with a lesser arsenal. This excerpt from a Mike Berardino 2017 profile on Hefner feels relevant now: The fact Hefner was able to hang around as long as he did with an 89-91 mph fastball seems to have smoothed the transition and helped a Twins staff that largely lacks swing-and-miss weapons. “Location is always paramount,” Hefner says. “Ultimately, this thing is about execution. That’s why this stuff speaks to me so well because I had to execute to be successful. If I was still playing and I had this information, it would free me up to not try to be nasty and just go execute.” The nice thing about Reed is that he has excellent control; his 5.1% BB rate since 2016 ranks eighth-best among MLB relievers. While his stuff played down in the second half of this season, he still stayed in the zone, walking only two of 62 batters faced in August and September. He seems like a viable candidate to succeed on execution over stuff. Under ideal circumstances, Reed will show up to camp in the spring with a fastball showing renewed life. It's important to remember how valuable he can be at full strength and effectiveness. In 2016 he ranked sixth among MLB relievers in WAR. Add that guy to the mix with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers and a couple of other offseason additions, and you've got the makings of a bullpen that can square off with the game's best. Sadly, it's tough to count on that happening. So the question is: how can the Twins get the most out of whatever version of Reed they get in 2019? At the very least, I feel good about the people now in charge of answering it. Click here to view the article

Major League Baseball is changing before our eyes, with its fabric being rewoven in the age of analytics and forward thinking. Against all odds, this Twins franchise has become a poster child for the game's ongoing evolution, and so we find ourselves in a rather extraordinary time as fans. Any rising trend in the game, you can now expect to see on display within Minnesota's philosophically unencumbered baseball operation.In building out their coaching staff, the Twins embraced ultra-modern ideologies at every turn. Every new hiring reflects a recognizable larger shift that's either already underway, or on the verge. Young manager with no experience in the role, known for his sharpness, relatability and communication skills? Check. Rocco Baldelli follows directly in the footsteps of guys like Dave Roberts, Alex Cora and Kevin Cash. Technology-driven pitching coach pulled straight out of the collegiate ranks? Check. Wes Johnson is actually the first to be hired straight from college in this era, but as Baseball America noted last week, there's been budding momentum in that direction. (The Twins also hired Billy Boyer out of Seattle University to become their minor league infield and baserunning coordinator, after adding Duke's Pete Maki as minor-league pitching coordinator a year ago.) Bullpen coach who is more peer than mentor? Check. Jeremy Hefner is 31 and will almost certainly be younger than some of the pitchers he's overseeing next season. The thinking here is similar to Baldelli, with his intelligence and resonance superseding formal experience as an instructor. Hefner represents a different kind of coach: not the seasoned conveyor of anecdotes and sage wisdom, but rather the readily available source of digestible information, eye-opening data and actionable insights. These selections further exemplify the organization's all-in commitment to cutting-edge methods for team-building. I think we can fairly assume the same will translate to their roster construction efforts this offseason, with the flexibility to do pretty much whatever they want in charting a new course. What might that look like? The Twins have all kinds of budget available, but – while the idea of a free-spending offseason is fun to dream on – this front office wasn't brought in to dole out FA mega-contracts. Instead, they're tasked with uncovering hidden values and gaining advantage by outsmarting the pack. I suspect we'll see a team built to the specifications of the modern winner: deep on situational arms and specialized role players. With several needs to fill, I also believe we'll see GM Thad Levine try stretch his dollars as far as he can. Last week Jon Heyman put together a list of under-the-radar free agents that may end up being cost-efficient additions – worth a look if you want to size up some likely Twins targets, especially because it includes a number of middle infielders and relievers. Jed Lowrie and Josh Harrison, the top two names listed, strike me as very plausible matches. During his September Q&A with Baseball Prospectus at Target Field, Levine said the following: "As we sit here today, it’s not to say we’re not going to get aggressive in this free agent market, but we may actually shift our attention to the trade market." Making predictions on this front is tricky business. "The trade market is a mysterious beast," as Tom Froemming astutely put it when patching together a theoretical trade-heavy offseason blueprint last month. Who would've guessed that last winter, the Twins would be able to acquire Jake Odorizzi – who gave them 165 solid innings as a starter and is now penciled in for 2019 – for one fringey Single-A prospect? From a Rays organization they are tailoring themselves after, no less! As I see it, there's a strong chance Minnesota deals away at least one of its "core players" in the coming months, pivoting after the established plan ran awry. Which player they choose, and what they get in return, will tell us a lot about how the "new market" values these assets. If last year's precedent holds, we may not see Hot Stove activity ramp up for a while yet; the Winter Meetings are still three weeks away, and it was long afterward that dominoes really started to click. Then again, if we look back one year further, Falvey and Levine struck quickly on their first big move, signing free agent Jason Castro before Thanksgiving. And while this year's MLB market has yet to see any major movements, there are signs of Hot Stove percolation (for instance, it sounds like a Sonny Gray trade is imminent for the Yankees). We'll be watching with great curiosity around here. And I think the baseball world at large will also take a keen interest in seeing how things unfold with this brazen excursion into (we hope) the future of baseball. Click here to view the article

Well, the final two hires for the Twins field staff are in, and.... not much more in the way of experience. 3B coach Tony Diaz never played affiliated pro ball, and has only two years experience as an MLB coach. 1B coach Tommy Watkins is 38, and his only experience in the majors was a cup of coffee as a player in 2007. That said, I like these hires. Both appear to bring something very valuable to the table. Diaz, who spent the last two seasons as Colorado's 1B coach, is said to be a great bilingual conduit; Parker notes he "wrote 'Practical English' for Spanish-speaking players to help them adapt to US." Watkins adds some organizational tenure and continuity to a staff that has very little. He's a beloved franchise fixture who's more or less been around continually since the Twins drafted him in 1998. As I wrote a couple weeks ago when mentioning him as a candidate, it seems to say a lot while the vast majority of institutional holdovers have been ushered out under new leadership, Watkins has not only stuck around but kept rising.

While toiling in obscurity for eight years since their most recent division title, the Minnesota Twins have had their share of issues, covering all sizes, shapes and forms. But the one persistent flaw plaguing these teams is poor pitching. Minnesota's new hires at pitching coach and bullpen coach, which came to light on Thursday, illustrate just how creative – and daring – they are becoming in the quest to finally overcome their perennial run-prevention problemsIn 2010, Minnesota had the fifth-best ERA in the American League, and allowed the third-fewest runs. Twins pitchers bounced back after a down spell, putting forth their best post-Johan season and seemingly vindicating the staff-building approach of Terry Ryan, Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson. Maybe that's why the trio received so much leeway as things went totally awry. In 2011 the Twins allowed the league's second-most runs. Then, they did it again in 2012 and 2013. In 2014 they finally took the AL crown for runs allowed, as an obscenely poor pitching staff doomed what was actually a pretty solid offense. That was it for Gardy and Anderson. Ryan hired Paul Molitor as manager, and sought to offset the new skipper's lack of arms expertise by pairing him with Neil Allen, a minor-league pitching coach snagged out of Tampa's organization. All-out disaster ensued in 2016, leading to Terry Ryan's dismissal. Allen survived the regime change. And in 2017, his Ervin-led staff actually did show considerable improvement, but he was sent packing afterward anyway. The Twins turned to Galvin Alston, another guy with lots of experience instructing pitchers in the minors, and a bit in the majors too. He lasted one year before being ousted in yet another shakeup, which also claimed four-year bullpen coach Eddie Guardado. On Thursday, we found out who will be filling these new vacancies for an organization suddenly characterized by churn. And this time, the Twins are really coloring outside the lines. Wes Johnson, who will be named Minnesota's new pitching coach, becomes the first collegiate coach to jump straight to the majors in nearly four decades. Johnson is a forward thinker who speaks frequently of concepts like spin access and hand tilt, and is a TrackMan evangelist. So, the analytical creds are there, but Johnson's total lack of familiarity with the pro level makes him a wild card, especially when paired with the game's youngest and greenest manager in Rocco Baldelli. With these two in place, you'd think Minnesota's front office might seek out some seasoning at bullpen coach, but... nope. It sounds like they'll be going with Jeremy Hefner for that gig. The 31-year-old, who played in the majors as recently as 2013, will join an on-field MLB coaching staff for the first time after serving in the analytics office for the last two years. His role with the team was described by La Velle E. Neal III as such: "Jeremy Hefner was hired as an advance scout, but not the kind that goes to the opposing team’s games the week before they face the Twins. Hefner travels with the Twins and scouts opponents by video. The combination of what Hefner sees on his screen and statistical analysis provides players with quality intelligence." You might've heard that the Twins are being sued by a former scout for age discrimination. And while that legal action may or may not have merit, it's plain to see that this front office is heavily favoring freshness and youth at almost every turn. Derek Falvey is acting in line with the very mindset that got him hired, which only makes sense I suppose. While this shift has been refreshing, one does wonder if the Twins have veered too far in the other direction. The team's three newest coaching hires carry essentially zero practical experience between them. The Twins organization as a whole is now shockingly short on experience. The ousting of Molitor, a franchise institution and Hall of Famer, symbolize a much larger overhaul. With Joe Mauer announcing his retirement and Brian Dozier unlikely to return, there's no real tenure anywhere in the clubhouse, no reverered figures with storied histories to draw from. Does that matter? We're about to find out. Click here to view the article

That is not the point I've attempted to make, at any point. He HAS hit enough to be valuable, and these Florimon comparisons are extremely off the mark. In the season you're referencing Florimon was a 1.4 WAR player despite his dWAR; in 2017 Buxton was a 3.5 WAR player. That's a top 30 mark in the American League! You're correct that if Buxton hits like he did in April 2017, or in 90 at-bats this year, his defense won't be enough to make up for it. I just don't think there's any reason to view those stretches as his full-season floor. Not based on precedent, or his talent level, or historical comps.

Huh? He had a .728 OPS in 2017. You can't just cherrypick portions of the season and ignore the MVP-caliber stretch that balanced out the bad. I could just as easily say he had a .780 OPS over nearly 450 ABS in 2017, removing April from the equation. I haven't seen any real evidence that Buxton's floor as a hitter, when healthy, is anywhere near as low as you're making it out to be. As a whole, if you subtract 94 mostly injury-hampered PAs in the majors this year, Buxton has been a solid hitter in the majors since 2016 and a dominant one in Triple-A. And he still. hasn't. turned. 25. Buxton wasn't on the MLB roster at season's end. I think that's all the meaning there is to be derived from that depth chart, which features only players who ended the year on the active roster (and aren't free agents).

Congratulations! You've stumbled upon a time machine that allows you to build an All-Star roster out of the best-ever Minnesota Twins players, at their personal peaks! Oh, sorry, there's a slight glitch. It only goes back to 2011, so you're limited to picking from the generally lackluster teams Minnesota has fielded since last winning a division title.The purpose of this exercise is... well, first and foremost, it's to kill time while we wait for the offseason to get underway. But it's also to show that, over these past eight nondescript years, there have been some genuine highlights. And while no singular team has managed to stand out much, if you gather up all the best parts you can put together a pretty damn strong (and nostalgic) squad. Here's my shot at assembling a Twins All-Star team from 2011 through 2018. C: Joe Mauer, v.2013 Mauer's final season at catcher (post-MVP era) was his best, despite being cut short by the concussion that ultimately ended his career as a backstop. In just 113 games, he amassed 5.2 WAR by slashing .324/.404/.476 with 11 homers, 35 doubles and an .880 OPS. The 2012 version of Mauer has an argument here as well, but for my money, Joe was as good in 2013 as any time other than those GOAT seasons of 2006 and '09. 1B: Justin Morneau, v.2012 It's unfortunate we couldn't tap into the pre-2011 Morneau, as we narrowly miss out on one of the best five-year stretches of offense (2006-2010) in Twins history. Stupid weirdly specific time machine. However, despite his 2012 campaign reflecting Morneau's greatly reduced post-concussion capacity (he hit .267/.333/.440 with 19 homers and 77 RBIs in 134 games), it's slim pickings here. Mauer's 2017 would probably be the pick if available, but we can't very well bring back two different Joes and put them on the same field. It'd cause catastrophic rifts in the time-space continuum! (Although I do love the idea of these two different Joe Mauers coming face-to-face, and the conversation that would take place: Mauer #1: Hey, you're-- Mauer #2: Whoa, are you-- Mauer #1: Golly Mauer #2: [chuckling quietly] Sheesh Mauer #1: Well, good luck out there Mauer #2: Yeah, thanks, you too Mauer #1: [walking away] That was pretty neat) 2B: Brian Dozier, v.2016 Dozier's 2016 campaign stands out as the single best in this entire stretch. The second baseman produced 6.2 WAR (most for a Twin since Mauer's MVP season in '09) by slashing .268/.340/.546 with 42 home runs, 99 RBIs, 104 runs scored and 18 steals on 20 attempts. He also played strong defense at second. It's unfortunate his efforts were wasted for a 103-loss team, but now his monstrous production can be put to good use atop this studly lineup. 3B: Miguel Sano, v.2017 The best version of Sano we've seen thus far was probably his rookie year, in 2015, when he broke onto the scene as a 22-year-old and hit .269/.385/.530 with 18 homers in 80 games. But I'm channeling the 2017 version because he played more, and played third base. Despite a second-half drop-off and an eventual leg injury that ended his season in August, Sano was excellent last year and a weapon in the cleanup spot. SS: Jorge Polanco, v.2017 Polanco's 2017 wasn't spotless by any means – in fact, it featured one of the worst calendar months (July) by any big-leaguer in the last decade – but on whole it was solid. His scorching finish left him with roughly average offensive numbers for the position, and his defense was vastly improved over a rocky rookie campaign in 2016. I also considered recruiting the 2014 or 2015 iterations of Eduardo Escobar for this position (not to mention the 2018 version for third base) but I think I'd keep Esco in a versatile utility role. LF: Josh Willingham, v.2012 Talk about delivering. In the first season of a three-year free agent contract, Willingham showed up and set a new career high by launching 35 home runs, the biggest total by a Twins hitter in almost 50 years. His tremendous production at the plate made up for his shortcomings in the outfield (in fact, if I have my druthers I'm probably putting 2018 Eddie Rosario here and Willingham at DH, but we're adhering to original positions). Adding in 31 doubles, 76 walks and 110 RBIs, Hammer put up an .890 OPS in what'd be his last standout MLB season. CF: Danny Santana, v.2014 As I started assembling this list, my presumption was that I'd be landing on 2017 Byron Buxton at this spot, for the same reasons I picked 2017 Polanco at short: an up-and-down season that rose above other uninspiring options. But I had forgotten just how good Danny Santana was when he arrived in 2014. Dispatched to center field with Escobar already holding down short, Santana proved stunningly adept at the new position, playing rock-solid defense while raking to the tune of .319/.353/.472 with 41 extra-base hits and 20 steals in 101 games. That's pretty much exactly the kinda production we'd all LOVE to see from Buxton, but of course in D-San's case it didn't sustain. RF: Michael Cuddyer, v.2011 For all that went horribly, horribly wrong in 2011, Cuddyer did his part. Ending his Twins career on a high note, Cuddy posted a .284/.346/.459 line with 20 homers, making his first All-Star team. Plus, we get magic tricks. DH: Jim Thome, v.2011 Once again we narrowly miss out on one of the most fun seasons in recent Twins history – hoo boy Thome was a bundle of joy in 2010 – but I'll still take the diminished 2011 version over anything else Minnesota has trotted out at DH since. Limited to 71 games by recurring back issues, Thome still managed to drill 12 homers, draw 35 walks, and post an .827 OPS. Ryan Doumit's 2012 (18 HR, .781 OPS in 134 games) was also an option here but he made more starts at catcher than DH. And besides, we need some sloppy taters on this squad. Starting Rotation: #1: Ervin Santana, v.2017 #2: Phil Hughes, v.2014 #3: Jose Berrios, v.2018 #4: Kyle Gibson, v.2018 #5: Scott Diamond, v.2012 The top four were fairly easy choices. Erv's 2017 was probably the best all-around performance by a Twins starter since Johan left town. He's our innings-eating rotation fronter. Hughes, who set the all-time record for K/BB ratio in 2014, is our Radke-esque No. 2 starter. Breakout Berrios brings the filth as third starter, while breakout Gibson is a big asset in the fourth spot. Determining a fifth starter was a bit tough. Scott Baker's 2011 (3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 134 innings) merits strong consideration but was a tad short on volume. Instead I had to go with that classic flukey 2012 season from Diamond, who rode elite walk and grounder rates to a 3.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 173 innings. An efficient thrower like that seems like a nice fit at the back of the rotation, plus he adds a little left-handed balance. Bullpen: Closer: Glen Perkins, v.2013 Setup: Brandon Kintzler, v.2017 Setup: Taylor Rogers, v.2018 Middle Reliever: Jared Burton, v.2012 Middle Reliever: Casey Fien, v.2013 Middle Reliever: Trevor Hildenberger, v.2017 Long Man: Trevor May v.2015 Perkins had a five-year stretch as one of the best closers in the game, but 2013 was his pinnacle (36 saves, 2.30 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). Behind him I've sprinkled some of the very best reliever seasons during our time frame, adding the 2014 May (16 starts, 32 relief appearances) as my swingman. Thoughts on these choices? Any glaring omissions? Click here to view the article

What follows is an excerpt from a feature for the 2019 Offseason Handbook, which you can order here on a name-your-price basis and receive it right away. Phil Miller has covered the Twins for the Star Tribune since 2013, and has also covered them for the Pioneer Press. In total, he has more than four decades of experience in sports journalism, and for my money, he's the best writer on the local baseball beat. He's also a tremendously nice guy who's always been incredibly supportive of our independent writing ventures, and was kind enough to contribute to the Handbook by breaking down a crucial topic for this winter: the search for a closer. Read an excerpt below.By Phil Miller: High velocity is a tremendous weapon, and a knee-locking changeup can win a lot of games. But Eddie Guardado, who knows something about relief pitching, believes the best closers possess an attribute that is more important than anything that can be measured by StatCast. “If you’re the closer, you’ve got to have [guts],” Guardado said, though he used more vivid language to make his point. “You can’t be afraid to throw your pitches, no matter the situation. It’s hard for some guys to learn that, because it really comes from inside you.” Guardado should know. In five seasons as a Twins’ closer, he never threw a pitch in the mid-90s, and never had a breaking ball that made a batter flinch. But by changing speeds, moving locations and directions, and especially throwing strikes no matter what, he saved 152 games for a team that won three division titles, including an AL-leading 45 in 2002. Guardado, the Twins’ bullpen coach since 2015 [editor's note: Guardado was dismissed from the gig shortly after the Handbook's release], says he frequently sees closers who don’t have the, um, physical attribute necessary for the job. “You ever see a pitcher put guys on base in the ninth [inning], and he looks like he has no idea what to throw next? That’s how you know he’s not a closer,” Guardado scoffed. “A closer tells himself, ‘you got lucky.’ Even if he loses.” But if it sounds like Guardado recognizes few pitchers with the cojones to preserve wins, the opposite is actually true. Too many teams limit their search for closers to pitchers who do little but throw 96-mph fastballs, the Twins Hall of Famer said. But Minnesota’s recent history illustrates that capable closers — like Everyday Eddie — sometimes come in far different packaging. “Look at Brandon Kintzler — he was a guy who had a really good sinker, and a couple of so-so pitches. Nobody ever gave him a chance to close. He didn’t even make our team out of spring training” in 2016, Guardado said. “But when we needed someone to close games that year, he learned the mentality — slow it down, take your time, trust your stuff. He picked it right up because he wasn’t afraid,” and even made the AL All-Star team in 2017. Kintzler is the best example of the Twins’ recent history of revolving closers. While some teams spend millions on established save leaders — Aroldis Chapman got $86 million over five seasons from the Yankees, Wade Davis was guaranteed $51 million by the Rockies, and Craig Kimbrel, finishing up a $42 million contract with the Red Sox, figures to get even more this offseason — the Twins have mostly filled the job by training non-closers to do it. That’s a history that goes back to Joe Nathan, the best closer in Twins’ history, who was a marginally successful starter and middle reliever for the Giants until being traded to Minnesota. After elbow surgery ended Nathan’s career, the Twins turned to another former starter, Glen Perkins, and watched him become an All-Star, too. An injury also eventually derailed Perkins’ career, and the Twins appointed Kevin Jepsen their closer, then Kintzler, and then Matt Belisle. *** Want to read the rest of this story, and 70 pages of in-depth analysis of the offseason that’s about to get underway? Claim your copy of the 2019 Offseason Handbook, at a price of your choosing, and you’ll receive it right away. Click here to view the article