Nick Nelson

THE 2015-16 OFFSEASON Download the 2016 Offseason Handbook (Free) TR's Swan Song For four straight years, Twins general manager Terry Ryan was generous enough to grant us exclusive interviews for the Offseason Handbook, openly sharing his views and perspectives with our avid segment of the fan base. It said a lot about the man: his accessibility, his transparency, and his appreciation for the hardcore types who still visited our site each morning and watched Twins games each night as the team floundered. He didn't owe us anything. We weren't a major media organization. And coming from an analytical fan's mindset, we often asked questions that would – as he so lovably put it – "get at his goat." But without fail, TR stayed engaged through lengthy interviews spanning every hot topic among the base, and he answered every damn question. When you hear people in the game refer to Terry Ryan as one of the greatest people they've ever met (and I've heard it often), that's the kind of thing they're talking about. The guy is gold. Ultimately, this would be his last interview for the Handbook. Ryan was fired before the end of a disastrous 2016 season, in a painful but necessary pivot. As usual, his final conversation with Parker offered plenty of fun moments and still-relevant insights, so I thought I'd highlight a few of my favorite nuggets: On Eddie Guardado, fresh off his first year as bullpen coach (a position he held up until this week, when he was dismissed): "There’s no question that Eddie Guardado I think was a piece in that clubhouse as much as he was on the field. He’s just a good guy and he’s got a knack for keeping people loose. But he also has the knack of teaching. There’s a guy that never coached in his life, and he was certainly aware that, ‘Listen, you’re here more than just a presence. We want you to teach.’ " On Miguel Sano's sky-high strikeout rate as a rookie in 2015: We’ve got to fix that. That just cannot happen. It’s way too often, 37 percent or so, I’m sure that’s probably, maybe even in the history of the game, that’s got to be up there. He’s a young kid, we’ll give him credit for that. And he’s got a fair idea of what he’s looking for. But that last month or so... just way too much of that." (Three years later, Sano has a career strikeout rate of 36.2%) On Byron Buxton's midseason promotion at age 21: "I readily admit that I rushed him the first crack because we got stuck a little bit with that center field spot. Then he hurt the thumb which was the worst thing that could have happened. That was my biggest concern. He gets hurt, that’s not good." On the 2015 season of Aaron Hicks, who would be traded to New York shortly after the Handbook published: "He’s very athletic and he can go and get balls and he’s got a strong arm and all the things that are requisites to play that position. He showed some power. And now we need to see him take the next step. He finally got back to even, I would say. It was a tough, tough haul for him. He’s another one I pushed, and now he’s back to even it looks like." (It took a couple more years, but Hicks definitely did take the next step.)The Plouffe Trade That Never Was Heading into the 2015-16 offseason, a Trevor Plouffe trade felt all but inevitable. Miguel Sano had emerged as a young stud hitter at the same position, and Plouffe seemed moderately value coming off a 22-homer campaign. Our blueprint suggested trading him to Washington for reliever Drew Storen. In reality, Ryan couldn't find a taker for Plouffe, and signed Byung Ho Park to play DH, which led to the bewildering move of Sano to right field. Quiet. Too Quiet. There was probably nothing the front office could've done to steer clear of the Total System Failure that was about to ensue in 2016, but their passive approach during the preceding offseason didn't help. We laid out plenty of ideas and possibilities in the Handbook, but this ended up being one of the most inactive winters in memory. Obviously the Park signing bombed, as did the Hicks-for-JR Murphy trade, which was really the only other move of note. THE 2016-17 OFFSEASON Download the 2017 Offseason Handbook (Free, just set price to zero) Great Minds Think Alike? "With Ryan being dismissed and new leadership being ushered in," we wrote when introducing the 2017 Offseason Handbook, "the Twins have a chance to reinvent themselves, and chart a new course for the future." Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took the reins shortly after season's end. They did indeed begin charting a new course, and well, suffice to say we found this direction agreeable. In our Offseason Blueprint, we suggested this... Sign free agent catcher Jason Castro for 3 years, $21 million. With the cupboard mostly bare in the minors as far as starting catchers go, the Twins would be wise to lock up a somewhat long-term solution. Castro, at 29, would be a good fit on a reasonably priced three-year deal. He has been a mostly mediocre hitter but there’s enough quality elsewhere in the lineup to make up for his low average. What we really like is his ability to help out the pitching staff. Castro ranked among the top three MLB catchers in pitch framing this season.... And this... Trade second baseman Brian Dozier to Dodgers for starting pitcher Jose De Leon plus prospects. This is the doozy. Giving up the team’s best player is a tough pill to swallow, but desperate times call for desperate measures, and the need for pitching is beyond desperate. After falling just short of the big show in 2016, the Dodgers are in position to make a bold move for two years of Dozier, who would instantly become their best power hitter. De Leon is a premier pitching prospect who ranked 25th in the game on the Baseball America Midseason Top 100 list, so the “plus” might not be a ton, but you should be able to add in a few younger minor-leaguers with high ceilings.The Twins did the former, signing Castro for just a tad more than we projected (3 years, $24.5m), and came very close to doing the latter. Minnesota's lengthy trade talks with LA, which were known to feature De Leon as a central piece, dragged through much of the winter before eventually fizzling out. The "plus prospects" part never quite added up for Falvey and Levine, and in the end they made the right choice because De Leon's stock has plummeted since. Big Sexy From the Free Agent Starters section: Bartolo Colon (43): Something tells us that if the ageless wonder plays another year it won’t be with a 100-loss team.Little did we know... Familiar Feeling In a feature article he wrote for the 2017 Offseason Handbook entitled "Past & Present: We’ve Been Here Before," John laid out some interesting parallels between the organizational rebuild we were watching unfold, and one that took place some 30 years earlier. In 1985 the Twins had hired 32-year-old Andy MacPhail (the original "Boy Genius") to basically run their baseball operations. And shortly after he came aboard, the Twins would hire a 36-year-old manager by the name of Tom Kelly. Leaders in the front office and dugout both ranking among the game's youngest in their respective positions? That sounds familiar. Bonnes recounted the decision: MacPhail’s mind was made up. He had seen the energy the team played with during Kelly’s short tenure, and he had received personal pleas from players begging him to make Kelly their full-time manager. But Pohlad was worried about having two 30-somethings running his $45 million investment. There needed to be some balance. That balance was Ralph Houk, a 68-year-old retiree who managed the pennant- winning Yankees teams in the early ‘60s. He was hired as “Vice President of Personnel” but really he was a consultant upon whom MacPhail and Kelly could lean. MacPhail says that Houk helped them avoid some rookie mistakes in his first couple of years, but primarily he was around to soothe the Pohlads’ concerns.Reading this passage about Houk was interesting for me, because recently I've had this thought bouncing around in my head: Is that dynamic what's missing with this front office? While I love the infusion of fresh blood and hungry young minds, would the inexperience of Falvey and Levine be better balanced with a seasoned executive – say, if Terry Ryan stayed on in the same advisory role Doug Melvin did in Milwaukee when David Stearns took over? That question is only magnified with Rocco Baldelli stepping in as the game's youngest manager, lacking any practical experience. THE 2017-18 OFFSEASON Download the 2018 Offseason Handbook Here (Free, just right-click the link) Predicting the Unpredictable As I've paged through past editions of the Handbook to put together this retrospective series, I've noticed something pleasantly surprising (maybe you've noticed too): our contract projections for players signed by the Twins were amazingly accurate. Castro, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Torii Hunter, Josh Willingham... we estimated the correct length on all of them and were usually within a few million in total value. This goes to show that forecasting free agent contracts based on precedent and trendlines is very possible. Or, at least, it was until the 2017-18 offseason. Last year's depressed market was unlike anything we've seen in the lifespan of our Handbook product, and as a result many of our free agent predictions missed the mark. Badly. Here's all you need to know: we estimated Lance Lynn would land a six-year, $150 contract. Speaking of Lynn, who would eventually sign a one-year, $12 million deal with the Twins in mid-March, here was our appraisal: After missing 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Lynn came back strong in 2017, starting every fifth day and getting better as the season progressed. His velocity trended upward throughout the summer and in the second half he mostly looked like a rotation-fronter. Lynn has a 3.38 career ERA and has been extremely reliable in St. Louis. He’s also two years younger than Arrieta. Estimated Contract: 6 years, $150 millionSeemed reasonable at the time? Anyway we all know how that one turned out. Darvish Derby As we put together last year's Handbook, Yu Darvish was clearly an attractive target. He was one of the top free agent starters available for a team in need of a frontliner. His premier strikeout stuff was seemingly the tonic this contact-plagued rotation needed. And the Twins actually had budget, not to mention an "in" via Thad Levine. In the Offseason Blueprint, we posed this suggestion: Trade Ervin Santana to Cincy for prospect Robert Stephenson, and put his cleared salary toward a blockbuster. 3) Sign SP Yu Darvish for 5 years, $135 million. The sum result here is that you are swapping out two years of the 35-year-old Santana in exchange for five years of the 31-year-old Darvish, a superior pitcher with elite stuff that shined on the big stage in October. Then it’s up to someone like Stephenson or Berrios to emerge as that legit No. 2, and others to step as well. It’s a potentially very good rotation.In a year of butchered estimates, this one wasn't actually too far off, as Darvish eventually signed with the Cubs for six years and $122 million. By all accounts, the Twins did seriously pursue the righty, offering five years and $100M+, but they came up short and it's just as well. Hitting the Bullseye In the Free Agent Relievers section, Fernando Rodney was one of the lower names listed, but he did get his picture plastered on a page in another of Brock's classic foreshadowing design choices. "Want closing experience?" we asked. "Rodney offers plenty, ranking among the active leaders in saves. But his iffy control makes him a less-than-ideal bet." The Twins did procure that closing experience, adding Rodney on a one-year, $4.5 million deal, and he managed to rein in the control a bit; his 3.9 BB/9 rate with Minnesota was his lowest since a career season in 2014. The results were there for Rodney, who pitched very well for the Twins before an August trade to Oakland. The A's just exercised his 2019 option. (The story of this Twins offseason has yet to be written, but you'll be ready to expertly follow along with the 2020 Offseason Handbook. Order your copy of this digital product now!)

By Rhett Bollinger: The 2018-19 offseason is set up to be one of the most interesting ones in years for the Twins, who have plenty of payroll flexibility with several contracts coming off the books, including Joe Mauer ($23 million) and Ervin Santana ($13 million). With roughly $70 million in payroll commitments in 2019, the front office should be able to target roster holes via free agency even with 10 players eligible for arbitration raises. Here’s a look at how the offseason could go for the Twins. Who to protect from Rule 5 Draft After the typical roster cleaning in October, the Twins have to decide who to protect from the Rule 5 Draft by Nov. 20. The Twins have a few no-brainers such as infielders Nick Gordon and Luis Arraez, outfielder LaMonte Wade and right-handed reliever Jake Reed, while several others are worth a look such as right-hander Nick Anderson, infielder/outfielder Zander Wiel, catcher Brian Navarreto and left-hander Tyler Jay. Anderson and Jay are both close to the Majors, so they’re worth protecting, while Wiel and Navarreto are both interesting decisions. With the emergence of Willians Astudillo at catcher and as a utilityman, the Twins can afford to leave Wiel and Navarreto off the 40-man. Who to non-tender The Twins have 10 players eligible for arbitration: infielders Miguel Sano and Ehire Adrianza, outfielders Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and Robbie Grossman, right-handers Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Trevor May and left-hander Taylor Rogers. Of that group, only Adrianza and Grossman are non tender candidates but I’d tender contracts to both and let them compete for jobs in Spring Training. Adrianza has versatility and Grossman finished the year strong, so I’d give them another look. I’d also consider trading Sano this offseason, but his value is so low it doesn’t make as much sense. Want to read the rest of this story, and 70 pages of in-depth analysis of the offseason about to get underway? Download your copy of the 2019 Offseason Handbook and dig in. Also, make sure to follow Rhett on Twitter.

THE 2013-14 OFFSEASON Download the 2014 Offseason Handbook (Free) Mauer Makes His Move Ahh, what a prescient cover design this turned out to be from our guy Brock Beauchamp: Joe Mauer, staring pensively off into the distance with his catcher's mask pulled over his head, symbolically walking off the field as backstop for the last time (well, not quite last, it turns out). When we published the 2014 Offseason Handbook, it wasn't yet known whether Mauer would change positions in the wake of a serious concussion with lasting effects. When questioned on the topic in our interview with him (Parker wasted no time), Terry Ryan responded with the following: TD: Are you preparing for a season in which Joe Mauer is catching less and playing the field more in 2014? TR: Not really. I’m not preparing for anything different than we prepared for last year. That decision’s still coming down to whether or not he wants to catch for sure. The good thing is he’s, I would say he’s 95 percent right now, which is good. That’s a decision that’s going to come down on whether or not he wants to stay back there, and how much he wants to stay back there. But right now I’m preparing for him to be back there.It wasn't long before Mauer did indeed make the call, smartly recognizing the serious health hazards of remaining behind the plate. "When I kept gathering information, to be honest with you, it wasn't really even a decision," Mauer told reporters in mid-November. "I kept searching to see if it was going to be OK, if it was going to be safe for me to go back there and catch, and I just wasn't finding that." Ryan obliged and changed course. In Comes Kurt Although he got a big feature image on his respective page in the Free Agent Catchers section, it's safe to say we didn't think a ton of Kurt Suzuki heading into this offseason, dedicating him this entire in-depth scouting report: "Hasn't had an OPS above .700 since 2009." It was true: Suzuki had settled in comfortably as a light-hitting gamer capable of maybe helping out in a part-time role. Signed on the cheap ($2.75 million) to fill an unexpected need, Suzuki was a classic bargain-bin find by TR, and one of his finest. Out of nowhere, the veteran catcher emerged as an All-Star in his first year with the Twins, sparking a mid-career renaissance with the bat. He would go on to post an OPS above .700 in four of the next five seasons, and now has become – against all odds – a legitimate slugger for the Braves. Wild stuff. Rickety Nolasco Here's what we wrote in our free agent profile on Ricky Nolasco, a 31-year-old righty hitting the open market for the first time: Nolasco has been a decidedly average pitcher over his career. In terms of ERA+, where the stat is equalized and 100 is average, Nolasco has a career ERA+ of 94. His value comes in the form of innings pitched; he throws approximately 202 innings per season. He misses some bats but not a ton, though he is coming off a career-best strikeout rate and he has been stingy when it comes to serving up the long ball. He hasn’t had many injuries lately so a long-term deal isn’t out of the question, but he really is more a No. 3 starter. Estimated Contract: 4 years, $52 millionThe Twins signed Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million deal and boy did he come up well short of that entirely underwhelming forecast. Nolasco was lousy in his first year (6-12, 5.38 ERA), and threw only 37 innings amidst injury woes in the second. Midway through Year 3, the Twins were ready to wipe their hands clean, trading Nolasco alongside Alex Meyer to the Angels. Getting Their Phil Coming off a mediocre season with the Yankees, Phil Hughes was another of the free agent starters we wrote up: Hughes is sort of the darling among the stat people. Yes, he suffered in Yankee Stadium (.909 OPS, 6.32 ERA in ’12) versus the road (.735 OPS, 3.88 ERA), which may suggest that he would be a different pitcher in, say, spacious Target Field and its fly ball-killing gaps. Plus, he’s so full of youth he knew what “twerking” was long before you Googled it. On one hand he has never been consistent; on the other he has been jerked around by the Yankees his entire career. A change of scenery could get him on the right track. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $30 millionA change of scenery did just that. Hughes signed with the Twins for three years and $24 million, a deal that looked like a bargain even before he turned in a career year in 2014. The combination of an ill-advised extension and debilitating shoulder issues would turn Hughes' contract from gift to hindrance, and Minnesota will still be paying on the tail end of it in 2019 (about $6.5 million), but this was a tremendous initial signing. PMKI: The letter grade assigned to Glen Perkins coming off what'd prove to be his best season. It remains the only time this Report Card score (traditionally on an A-F scale) has ever been awarded. THE 2014-15 OFFSEASON Download the 2015 Offseason Handbook (Free) Gardy Gone When Parker conducted this year's interview with Terry Ryan for the Handbook, Ron Gardenhire had been dismissed but his replacement hadn't yet been hired. I found this portion of the Q&A session, regarding the lines of questioning with candidates for the gig, quite interesting in retrospect: PH: Do you ask them if they use defensive shifts? TR: Yes. PH: Is that an emphasis on the next manager? TR: Defensive shifts? PH: Defensive shifts. Strategy. TR: It’s a piece. Strategy is more important than some. Yeah, that would be important. The most important thing out of many managerial interviews is how they handle the pitching staff.As it turns out, the guy Ryan selected – Paul Molitor – was big on shifts and strategy, but perpetually questionable in his handling of the pitching staff. Gathering Hunter The Twins entered this offseason with a pretty clear need for a starting corner outfielder. Torii Hunter was among the options we highlighted: Still producing at age 39, Hunter has become something of an ageless wonder. He took a bit of a step back in 2014 after back-to-back seasons with an 800-plus OPS, but still batted .286/.319/.446 with 17 homers and 83 RBI. His numbers over the years have been extremely consistent but his defensive skills have diminished, even in the corners. The Twins might like the idea of a familiar veteran joining their young outfield group, but would Hunter be interested in joining a non-contender? Estimated Contract: 1 year, $8 millionHunter was indeed interested, inking a one-year deal worth $10.5 million. And with his help, the Twins returned to (fringe) contender status, broaching the .500 mark for the first time in five years. But while he was credited with making a big clubhouse impact, Hunter's production took another step backward as he finished with a .702 OPS, lowest since he was an overmatched rookie in Minnesota 17 years earlier. After the season, Hunter hung up his cleats. Swervin' Toward Ervin In the two preceding offseasons, our Handbooks had identified Ervin Santana as a logical free agent target, but in both cases he signed one-year deals elsewhere (Kansas City, then Atlanta). This time around, as if by fate, the two sides finally met with Erv signing a four-year, $55 million contract that was very close to what we projected in sizing him up: After that abysmal season in 2012 with the Angels, Santana has posted two quality seasons with the Royals and Braves on one-year deals. This past year in Atlanta, he reduced the number of long balls allowed and used his deadly slider more effectively against an unsuspecting group of National Leaguers. He also pitched inside with his fastball more, helping to lower his home run totals -- allowing just six dingers on his heater after averaging 18 a year the past three seasons. The Braves will likely submit a qualifying offer of $15.3 million which, odds are, he will turn down to seek a multi-year deal after the one year with the Braves. Nobody wants to part with draft pool money -- especially a rebuilding franchise -- but Santana could provide solid pitching depth. Estimated Contract: 4 years, $50 millionRecipient of the most lucrative free agent investment in franchise history, Santana's anticipated debut with the Twins would ultimately be delayed by an 80-game PED suspension. But he pitched well in the second half of 2015 and then performed like a frontline starter over the next two seasons with a 3.32 ERA over nearly 400 innings. His 2018 was a complete loss, but when Santana was actually healthy and on the mound, he was arguably the best starting pitcher Minnesota's had since the last guy to sport the same name on his jersey. (The story of this Twins offseason has yet to be written, but you'll be ready to expertly follow along with the 2019 Offseason Handbook. Order your copy of this digital product now!)

Welcome to the offseason. This is the ninth Offseason Handbook our crew has produced – a tradition that predates even the launch of our website, Twins Daily. When we released the sad-looking first version of this little passion project (see cover below), the Twins had just completed a thrilling 2009 season, their last at the Metrodome. That winter, they signed Joe Mauer – coming off an MVP campaign – to an eight-year, $184 million extension. And in every iteration of the Handbook we’ve churned out since, that contract has been a constant reality, occupying roughly a quarter of the payroll. The objective of these guides is to let you, the reader, put on your GM hat and plot your own course for the offseason (or, predict what the actual front office will do). Now, for the first time, you’re really going to have free rein. Not only is Mauer’s hefty contract off the books; the Twins have almost no firm commitments for 2019 or beyond. You’ve got unprecedented spending flexibility. A deep farm system, chock full of appealing assets and incoming difference-makers. A new manager set to take the reins. And you’ve got an entrenched young core that, while reeling from a series of setbacks, still carries immense promise. In the following pages, you’ll find a comprehensive overview of the offseason landscape laid out through a TwinsCentric lens. Depth charts, free agents of interest, trade scenarios, payroll analysis, arbitration decisions, impact prospects: it’s all ahead. The sky’s the limit. Let your imagination run wild. Can you build a contender for 2019? *** Want to dig into the full 70 pages of in-depth analysis of the offseason that’s about to get underway? Download your copy of the 2019 Offseason Handbook, at any price you see fit.

Last year over 1,000 readers downloaded the Handbook to get a jump on the offseason. This year we enlisted numerous prominent writers to help give you an even better breakdown of what's to come. You can order now for whatever you think is fair (including zero, but recommended donation is $10), and you'll receive your download link via email right away. *** CHECK OUT THIS OFFSEASON HANDBOOK FAQ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS *** The Handbook includes everything you would need to know to rebuild the Twins into a championship contender. We'll break down the payroll and salaries, so you'll know how much you have to spend. We'll list free agent targets and trade options. We'll review the arbitration decisions you need to make. Oh, and we've enlisted some friends to help it all make sense: Mike Berardino (Pioneer Press), Aaron Gleeman (Baseball Prospectus), Patrick Reusse (Star Tribune), Rhett Bollinger (MLB.com), Phil Miller (Star Tribune) and RandBall's Stu (Twinkie Town and... RandBall, I guess?) all contributed must-read features. Order the 2019 Offseason Handbook, and let's get to work.

By Mike Berardino: Minnesota Twins offseasons typically haven’t been like most others around the major leagues. Well-practiced stealth and ultimate frustration have mostly been their M.O., with far more tire-kicking than jersey-holding marking their frozen winters of so-called hot stove activity. Oh, there was the wild week in late 2012 – just before I joined the St. Paul Pioneer Press as Twins beat writer – that saw both Denard Span and Ben Revere dealt away for young pitching prospects Alex Meyer and Trevor May, respectively. The winter of 2013-14 brought the two-pronged free agency push that lured veteran right- handers Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes to the Upper Midwest despite their Southern California upbringing. And, of course, there was the signing of free agent right-hander Ervin Santana in December 2014 – a quick pivot after the failed pursuit of a Francisco Liriano reunion – that worked out better than most such investments did for the Terry Ryan regime. Since the arrival of Falvine (imaginary trademark) in the fall of 2016, however, the Twins have been far more active during baseball’s supposed downtime. They jumped in quickly and signed catcher Jason Castro away from the Houston Astros for three years and $24.5 million shortly after taking over. That, of course, was followed by the month-long Brian Dozier soap opera in which the slugging second baseman and team MVP was peddled around the league in hopes his historic 42-homer season would bring a cache of high-end prospects in return. (It didn’t.) *** Want to read the rest of this story, followed by 70 pages of in-depth analysis of the Twins offseason that’s about to get underway? Claim your copy of the 2019 Offseason Handbook and you’ll receive it as soon as the World Series ends. Also, make sure to follow Mike on Twitter.

The Twins have a bevy of tasks in front of them, but none are more important to their short-term outlook than getting Byron Buxton back on track. His game-changing ability makes him an elite difference-maker in the game, and Buxton's total lack of contribution in 2018 was one of the biggest reasons Minnesota went nowhere. “When you have a staff that can relate to different players in different ways, I think you have a much better chance of touching these guys and helping them in their careers and getting them where they need to be," said Baldelli during his introductory press conference at Target Field on Thursday. Buxton's career up to this point has been one of huge upside, sky-high expectations, and physical setbacks. In all three of those areas, his new manager can provide an empathetic perspective and relate in some unique ways. Rocco Baldelli Knows About Being Gifted with Incredible Talent Like Buxton, Baldelli was a nationally recognized talent from a young age, and became a Top 10 draft pick out of high school. Both quickly developed into elite prospects and reached the major leagues at age 21. As players, they were of a similar mold: spectacular defensive center fielders and aggressive right-handed swingers with power. Few people throughout the game's history have been blessed with the kind of pure athleticism and ability Buxton has. I'm not sure even Baldelli makes that cut, but he's closer than most. Rocco Baldelli Knows About Dealing with Pressure and Expectations Of course, being a top draft pick (Buxton was second overall in 2012, Baldelli sixth overall in 2000) brings with it a burden of its own. These two blue-chip studs were subject to extreme levels of pressure and expectation, which only grew as they dominated the minors and rocketed to early big-league debuts. Buxton's perpetual stumbles and regressions have been made ever more frustrating by the Hall of Famer we all know resides within him. We've seen glimmers at times, but for various reasons, it just hasn't all fully come together. And that clearly weighs on him – why wouldn't it? Baldelli's been there. As a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2003, there was hoping he'd help lift a still-fresh Tampa Bay franchise – last-place finisher in each of its first six years – out of the cellar. He knows that level of scrutiny, which can often be fiercest from oneself. And that leads us to the most important thing: Rocco Baldelli Knows About Being Derailed by the Uncontrollable In a career that was sabotaged by physical breakdown, Baldelli faced maladies of all manners. He tore his ACL playing basketball during his third offseason. While rehabbing, he injured his elbow and required Tommy John surgery. Once he made it back he started experiencing chronic fatigue. Upon undergoing tests, he was diagnosed with "metabolic and/or mitochondrial abnormalities." Doctors attempted to work out a plan to manage it, but the inexplicable ailment sapped and drained him. He battled on for years, participating in Tampa's first World Championship in 2008, but was finished as a player by age 29. Which brings us to Buxton. He's had it bad up to this point, with major injuries scattered throughout his ascent and now casting doubt on his once brilliant outlook. But he's a long way from going down Baldelli's road. It's often said that great players don't make great coaches, because they can't empathize with the adversity and tribulations experienced by lesser talents. In a way, that dynamic is at play with this managerial transition. As a legendary ballplayer and No. 3 overall draft pick back in 1974, Paul Molitor shares the first two commonalities mentioned above, but not this one. His career wasn't without speed bumps but over 21 years of playing, he stayed mostly healthy and forever productive en route to the Hall of Fame. Buxton is currently at a crossroad between the best-case scenario where he turns it around and realizes his potential as a top player in the game for many years (the Molitor path), or the worst-case scenario where that potential is squashed by endless time spent in the trainer's room (the Baldelli path). To a large extent, it's out of his hands. And who better than Baldelli to get that message across? Focus on the big picture, manage what you can control, and don't let the setbacks get you down. Buxton doesn't need more heart, or determination, or motivation. That's all there. But he might benefit from a fresh perspective and a new type of mentorship that Baldelli can seemingly provide.

Rocco Baldelli is replacing Hall of Famer Paul Molitor as the Twins manager. Baldelli’s playing career was unfortunately cut short due to mitochondrial channelopathy, a rare disease that caused injury and fatigue. Baldelli finished third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2003 when he hit .289/.326/.416 (.742) with 32 doubles, eight triples, 11 homers and 27 stolen bases for the Rays. He missed all of 2005 with a knee injury and later Tommy John surgery. It was at this time his rare disease was first identified. He retired at 29 in 2010. At that point, Baldelli joined the Rays organization in a coaching capacity. He spent three years as a roving minor league instructor and was a special assistant to the Baseball Operations. That's the same title Minnesota's front office has given to former players Torii Hunter, LaTroy Hawkins, Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau. In 2014, Baldelli joined the big-league coaching staff as first base coach, a role he kept through the 2017 season. After that 2017 season, he was named the Major League Field Coordinator. In that role, he worked on defensive skills with players. According to a recent Tampa Bay Times article by Marc Topkin, Baldelli is "young, bright, sharp, communicative, confident, humble, versed in analytics — all characteristics that fit well with what teams seem to be looking for now in managers. Plus, he has the perspective of four years in a front/office scouting role.” In the same article, Topkin explained why the Texas Rangers consider him a good candidate for their job. “The Rangers seem high on Baldelli, with some chatter that after picking tough-guy Jeff Banister over Cash going into 2015 they now want to go the other way for a leader, and see Baldelli in that culture-building/positive-thinking mold.” In addition, Baldelli is very smart. He posted a 4.25 GPA in high school and scored 1300 on the SAT. Among the colleges he was considering before the Rays made him the sixth overall pick in 2000 were Princeton and Yale. “Baldelli also would seem a good fit with the analytic-driven execs running the Jays and Twins, who came from the Indians, where, for what it's worth, Cash coached for two years before getting the Rays' job. (In Minnesota, Baldelli is competing against former Rays hitting coach Derek Shelton, who spent 2018 as the Twins bench coach).” In a response to a Brandon Warne tweet about Baldelli, former Twins infielder Trevor Plouffe tweeted, “Rocco would be an awesome manager.” Plouffe spent about half of the 2017 season with the Tampa Bay Rays. https://twitter.com/trevorplouffe/status/1054441813925257216 Shelton was believed to be a leading candidate for the job as well before Baldelli impressed the front office. Others who were considered and received interviews include Twins hitting coach James Rowson, Giants bench coach Hensley Meulens, Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde, and Astros bench coach Joe Espada. In recent days, the Reds named David Bell their new manager, and the Angels named Brad Ausmus as their new manager. The Twins are coming off of a 2018 season curtailed by injuries, unexpected poor performances and a PED suspension. The team finished strong to end the year with a record of 78-84. ------------ On Thursday morning, the Minnesota Twins officially announced that Rocco Baldelli will be their next manager. He is flying to Minneapolis this morning and there will be a press conference at 3:00 this afternoon.

THE 2011-12 OFFSEASON Download the 2012 Offseason Handbook Here (Free) Off the Marq Jason Marquis was on the list of free agent starter options we profiled, but certainly not near the top coming off a mediocre 2012 campaign. Our blurb on hIm: Jason Marquis’s one redeeming quality at this point is his ability to induce ground balls as his 54.5% worm-burning rate was in the top 12 among pitchers who threw a minimum of 120 innings. Outside of that, he offers very little except for maybe “veteran leadership.” After a midseason trade to the Diamondbacks, who wanted some of that sweet “VL” for their youthful rotation, Marquis fractured his fibula and was placed on the DL for the balance of the season. He’s likely staring down a “make good” type of contract in the face. Estimated contract: 1 year, $5 million (plus incentives) He actually ended up signing for a bit less than we projected ($3 million), and indeed, Marquis offered very little except for that sweet VL, which didn't take him very far as he was designated for assignment in May with an 8.47 ERA. Dropping the Hammer Here's what we wrote about Josh Willingham before the Twins signed him to a three-year, $21 million deal in December: Mr. Willingham, the USS Multi-Year has finally pulled into port. After playing a series of one-year contracts, Willingham looks poised for a big deal. He actually had a better year than Cuddyer, but lacks some of the hype. Still, don’t be surprised if the 32-year-old ends up with a longer deal, or one that includes a playable option year. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $30 million Willingham enjoyed an excellent first year with the Twins, launching 35 homers and driving in 110 runs, but his body pretty much gave out on him after that. He limped to the end of his three-year contract (the final stretch in Kansas City), then retired. Reusse Reminisces All the way back in 2011, when Twins Daily was but a gleam in John's eye, and its four founders were but a motley band of wayward bloggers, local sports-page institution Patrick Reusse was kind enough to pen a foreword for our "Offseason GM Handbook," which was then a vague and raw conception of what it would become. Here's how he kicked it off: Bob Fowler left the St. Paul newspapers for the Minneapolis Star in 1974. I replaced him as the Twins beat writer for the Pioneer Press and Dispatch. Yes, we had the privilege of writing for both the morning and afternoon newspapers in St. Paul, which I looked back at as quite a burden until modern beat reports started offering blogs, Tweets and articles in an endless, day-long news cycle. I also didn’t have any of these independent journalists – such as the TwinsCentric crew of Seth Stohs, Parker Hageman, Nick Nelson and John Bonnes – to compete with, which is fortunate, since those were my drinking days.It's a little funny to read that now, because if ever Mr. Reusse considered us competitors, he sure never acted like it. Betraying his curmudgeonly shtick, Patrick has always shown us genuine kindness, even though we represented a model that has shaken his deeply beloved newspaper medium to the core. I'm proud to say that Reusse once again lent his talent to this year's edition of the Handbook, contributing an excellent anecdote-filled story about Paul Molitor, and the crucial difference between ability and teachability. It provides readers with some real food for thought as the manager search carries on. THE 2012-13 OFFSEASON Download the 2013 Offseason Handbook Here (Free) Front Office Spin General manager Terry Ryan on Jose Berrios, freshly selected with the 32nd overall pick that June: "He has got pitches. He’s got athleticism. He’s got makeup. He has got the ability to spin the ball better than most. So yeah, we like him a lot."Ryan offered this assessment during our interview with him for the 2013 Offseason Handbook. And, well... You said it, Terry. Six years later, Berrios would appear in his first All-Star Game at age 24, on the strength of those very traits. He became the youngest Twin to earn the honor since Francisco Liriano, another of TR's greatest finds. Kevin. Freakin. Correia. Here was our profile on the oh-so ordinary 32-year-old Kevin Correia, who would go on to sign a lamentable two-year, $10 million contract with Minnesota in one of Ryan's least inspiring moves ever: Correia is a back-end starter in the low-strikeout, OK-control, pitch-to-contact mold. Even this year with the Pirates, a year in which he posted a 4.21 ERA, he was the guy bumped to the bullpen when they acquired Wandy Rodriguez at the deadline. But he’s relatively young, cheap and fairly durable. Unfortunately, he has also spent his entire eight-year MLB career in the National League. There is no guarantee the limited success he has experienced there would carry over to the AL (see: Marquis, Jason). Estimated Contract: 1 year, $2.5 millionWell, Correia outlasted Marquis and – to his credit – achieved average results in 2013 before totally falling off in 2014. But he was the epitome of Ryan's fascination with contact-heavy veteran inning-eaters possessing zero upside. It was a dark time. Wide-Spanning Opinions Heading into the 2012-13 offseason, to say the writing was on the wall with regards to an impending Denard Span trade would be an understatement. All four Handbook authors (John, Seth, Parker and myself) wrote separate blueprints, and each of the four suggested trading Span for a different player. For John, it was to the Reds for SS Zack Cozart. Seth was also sending him to the Reds, in exchange for RHP Mike Leake. Parker shipped Span to the Rays for RHP Wade Davis. I also drew up a deal with Tampa, adding in prospect B.J. Hermsen to acquire RHP James Shields. Okay, so maybe they weren't all suuuuuper realistic in retrospect. But hey, blueprints are made for imaginative thinking! Turns out Shields and Davis would both head to Kansas City during that offseason, setting up a championship reign for the Royals. Meanwhile, Ryan ended up sending Span to Washington for prospect Alex Meyer in a future-focused move that ultimately never panned. Incidentally, the best move TR made that winter took place in the same week, when he traded Ben Revere to Philadelphia. Trevor May, acquired alongside (ugh) Vance Worley in the deal, figures to be a major factor in Minnesota's bullpen next year. (The story of this Twins offseason has yet to be written, but you'll be ready to expertly follow along with the 2019 Offseason Handbook. Order your copy of this digital product now!)