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Everything posted by Nick Nelson
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Well, I was referring more to players we might actually be able to watch in Twins games. Possibly one or both could be up in September but I kinda doubt it. But yes, Rooker and Gordon could very well factor into the 2019 picture. Rooker just needs to stay the course; it'd be really nice to see Gordon get something going in Rochester before the season ends.
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The dream of contention has died, and several longtime fixtures have departed, but that doesn't mean fans can't find reason to watch in August and September. I wrote last week that that the vision for a championship contender in 2020 remains intact. Can the Twins speed up at that timeline and become a serious factor in the American League as soon as next year? That depends largely on a select group of players, many of whom will be on display and worth closely watching over the last two months of the campaign.Minnesota's roster has been whittled down over the past week, but plenty of remaining team members will be using the final third of the schedule to build toward better things next year. Positive signs from these seven enigmatic figures over the balance of the season would be extremely reaffirming as far as the club's future outlook is concerned. Miguel Sano One way or another, Sano will figure into Minnesota's 2019 plans. Will it be as a third baseman? A first baseman? A designated hitter? Will he be a trusted slugger in the middle of the lineup, or a total wild-card coming off a roundly disappointing season? We don't know the answers to these questions yet, but Sano can do much to provide clarity over the final nine weeks. First things first, he needs to start making some contact. Dating back to his return from the disabled list in late May, Sano has struck out in 36 of 84 plate appearances (43%) with the Twins, including six times in 10 plate appearances since his recall from a minor-league reset. If he can move back toward his customary (though still extremely high) 35% K range, while starting to crush the ball with more consistency, it'll be a very reassuring sign heading into the offseason. Monday's game at least felt like a step in the right direction, with Sano collecting a pair of hits (including a scorched double) and drawing a walk. Mitch Garver Already Garver is doing enough to prove himself with the bat. As an MLB rookie he has posted a .760 OPS, third-highest on the team, and that includes a .316/.409/.579 line in July. The 27-year-old combines a keen eye at the plate with strong contact skills and at least adequate power. Questions mainly seem to surround his defensive aptitude. In spite of his offensive takeoff, Garver hasn't quite been able to tap into a true starter's regimen behind the plate, even with veteran minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson as the sole alternative. As an outsider, it'll be a little tough to evaluate progress on this front. There are certain aspects of catching and receiving that are almost impossible to gauge as a mere spectator – rapport with pitchers, ability to execute a game plan, and so forth. I suppose we'll get a read on the coaching staff's perspective based on how Garver's usage behind the plate unfolds during the final weeks. Up to this point, Molitor has rarely had him catch on consecutive days. If the Twins finish the year feeling confident in Garver as a backstop, it'll significantly lower the ambiguity around the position going forward. Byron Buxton It's been a nightmare season for Buxton. Can he wake up before it ends or will he carry its echoes into the offseason? Crippling migraines, a trip to the disabled list, a broken toe, a horrendous stretch in the majors, a return to the disabled list, a demotion to Triple-A, another return to the disabled list, and now more distressing struggles. Since rejoining the Rochester Red Wings on Friday after a two-week absence due to a wrist injury, Buxton is 1-for-7 with five strikeouts, amidst rumblings that the wrist is still bothering him. In 88 total plate appearances at Triple-A he has struck out 27 times (32%), which is tremendously alarming for a 24-year-old who had absolutely slain International League pitching in the past. If he doesn't land on the DL again, Buxton will probably be back up fairly soon. Then, we'll get to see if the wayward centerpiece can start to find himself before time runs out on this season. Max Kepler Although his issues have been far less severe than fellow fizzling core components Sano and Buxton, Kepler's disappointing play has been arguably more troubling. Because unlike the other two, Kep's lackluster production can't be tied primarily to physical issues. He's been healthy enough to play in 102 of Minnesota's 105 games. There's nothing visibly wrong with him; he's even taking great ABs, tracking for a career-low K rate and career-high BB rate. But the results just aren't there. Among qualified MLB right fielders, Kepler's .729 OPS ranks dead last, remaining almost exactly static with the past two seasons. The complete lack of offensive growth has turned him from a promising rookie into a stagnating below-average outfielder with 1,500 plate appearances under his belt, approaching arbitration and hardly locked in as a long-term starter. He'd instill a lot more confidence with a big closing run that shows he's capable of translating the solid plate approach into sustained production. Right now this is very much in doubt. Addison Reed The front office's foray into free agency over the winter carried little risk. Lance Lynn and Zach Duke have already been flipped for prospects, and Fernando Rodney's contract for next year is optional (if he makes it through August). The only bold commitment they made was to Reed, whose two-year deal worth $16.75 million represented a record plunge for the Twins on the relief market. So far the results haven't been great. Reed pitched fairly well early on, then seemed to wear down as the season progressed, and spent the past couple of weeks sidelined by elbow issues. Reed was activated on Monday, and owns the team's highest guaranteed salary for 2019, so it'd be nice if he could show any hint of getting straightened out the rest of the way. With Ryan Pressly gone, the Twins really need Reed to be a major late-inning factor in their bullpen next season. In particular I'll be looking for a rebound in velocity. As you can see from the chart below (via Brooks Baseball), Reed was trending downward in a big way before going on the shelf. Download attachment: reedvelo.JPG Fernando Romero Unlike most of the others mentioned above, Romero isn't a concerning case at present. He has had a strong first year in Triple A, and a very respectable intro to the majors at age 23. But his continued development is essential to Minnesota's short-term outlook, so it'll be key for Romero to keep it rolling. As you may be aware, the right-hander lost almost his entire 2014 and 2015 seasons to injury. He came back to log 90 innings in 2016, then ramped up to a career-high 125 last year before breaking down in August. He is currently at 110 frames this season between Rochester and Minnesota. Can Romero stay healthy and effective through 150-plus? If so, he'll answer one of the few remaining questions suppressing his stock. Michael Pineda Ah, the forgotten man. Minnesota signed Pineda to a two-year, $10 million contract in December as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The big righty's arm has now healed, and he's slated to start a rehab stint in the Gulf Coast League next week. If all goes well he ought to be up with the Twins for the final month, likely as a reliever. As we look ahead to the 2019 season, Pineda's an awfully intriguing factor. He has a 3.60 FIP, 1.19 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 rate as a big-leaguer. If he returns at a similar level, he has a chance to join Romero, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson in a potentially formidable rotation capable of contending for a championship. Which remaining players are you most interested in keeping an eye on as the season winds down? Click here to view the article
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Minnesota's roster has been whittled down over the past week, but plenty of remaining team members will be using the final third of the schedule to build toward better things next year. Positive signs from these seven enigmatic figures over the balance of the season would be extremely reaffirming as far as the club's future outlook is concerned. Miguel Sano One way or another, Sano will figure into Minnesota's 2019 plans. Will it be as a third baseman? A first baseman? A designated hitter? Will he be a trusted slugger in the middle of the lineup, or a total wild-card coming off a roundly disappointing season? We don't know the answers to these questions yet, but Sano can do much to provide clarity over the final nine weeks. First things first, he needs to start making some contact. Dating back to his return from the disabled list in late May, Sano has struck out in 36 of 84 plate appearances (43%) with the Twins, including six times in 10 plate appearances since his recall from a minor-league reset. If he can move back toward his customary (though still extremely high) 35% K range, while starting to crush the ball with more consistency, it'll be a very reassuring sign heading into the offseason. Monday's game at least felt like a step in the right direction, with Sano collecting a pair of hits (including a scorched double) and drawing a walk. Mitch Garver Already Garver is doing enough to prove himself with the bat. As an MLB rookie he has posted a .760 OPS, third-highest on the team, and that includes a .316/.409/.579 line in July. The 27-year-old combines a keen eye at the plate with strong contact skills and at least adequate power. Questions mainly seem to surround his defensive aptitude. In spite of his offensive takeoff, Garver hasn't quite been able to tap into a true starter's regimen behind the plate, even with veteran minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson as the sole alternative. As an outsider, it'll be a little tough to evaluate progress on this front. There are certain aspects of catching and receiving that are almost impossible to gauge as a mere spectator – rapport with pitchers, ability to execute a game plan, and so forth. I suppose we'll get a read on the coaching staff's perspective based on how Garver's usage behind the plate unfolds during the final weeks. Up to this point, Molitor has rarely had him catch on consecutive days. If the Twins finish the year feeling confident in Garver as a backstop, it'll significantly lower the ambiguity around the position going forward. Byron Buxton It's been a nightmare season for Buxton. Can he wake up before it ends or will he carry its echoes into the offseason? Crippling migraines, a trip to the disabled list, a broken toe, a horrendous stretch in the majors, a return to the disabled list, a demotion to Triple-A, another return to the disabled list, and now more distressing struggles. Since rejoining the Rochester Red Wings on Friday after a two-week absence due to a wrist injury, Buxton is 1-for-7 with five strikeouts, amidst rumblings that the wrist is still bothering him. In 88 total plate appearances at Triple-A he has struck out 27 times (32%), which is tremendously alarming for a 24-year-old who had absolutely slain International League pitching in the past. If he doesn't land on the DL again, Buxton will probably be back up fairly soon. Then, we'll get to see if the wayward centerpiece can start to find himself before time runs out on this season. Max Kepler Although his issues have been far less severe than fellow fizzling core components Sano and Buxton, Kepler's disappointing play has been arguably more troubling. Because unlike the other two, Kep's lackluster production can't be tied primarily to physical issues. He's been healthy enough to play in 102 of Minnesota's 105 games. There's nothing visibly wrong with him; he's even taking great ABs, tracking for a career-low K rate and career-high BB rate. But the results just aren't there. Among qualified MLB right fielders, Kepler's .729 OPS ranks dead last, remaining almost exactly static with the past two seasons. The complete lack of offensive growth has turned him from a promising rookie into a stagnating below-average outfielder with 1,500 plate appearances under his belt, approaching arbitration and hardly locked in as a long-term starter. He'd instill a lot more confidence with a big closing run that shows he's capable of translating the solid plate approach into sustained production. Right now this is very much in doubt. Addison Reed The front office's foray into free agency over the winter carried little risk. Lance Lynn and Zach Duke have already been flipped for prospects, and Fernando Rodney's contract for next year is optional (if he makes it through August). The only bold commitment they made was to Reed, whose two-year deal worth $16.75 million represented a record plunge for the Twins on the relief market. So far the results haven't been great. Reed pitched fairly well early on, then seemed to wear down as the season progressed, and spent the past couple of weeks sidelined by elbow issues. Reed was activated on Monday, and owns the team's highest guaranteed salary for 2019, so it'd be nice if he could show any hint of getting straightened out the rest of the way. With Ryan Pressly gone, the Twins really need Reed to be a major late-inning factor in their bullpen next season. In particular I'll be looking for a rebound in velocity. As you can see from the chart below (via Brooks Baseball), Reed was trending downward in a big way before going on the shelf. Fernando Romero Unlike most of the others mentioned above, Romero isn't a concerning case at present. He has had a strong first year in Triple A, and a very respectable intro to the majors at age 23. But his continued development is essential to Minnesota's short-term outlook, so it'll be key for Romero to keep it rolling. As you may be aware, the right-hander lost almost his entire 2014 and 2015 seasons to injury. He came back to log 90 innings in 2016, then ramped up to a career-high 125 last year before breaking down in August. He is currently at 110 frames this season between Rochester and Minnesota. Can Romero stay healthy and effective through 150-plus? If so, he'll answer one of the few remaining questions suppressing his stock. Michael Pineda Ah, the forgotten man. Minnesota signed Pineda to a two-year, $10 million contract in December as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The big righty's arm has now healed, and he's slated to start a rehab stint in the Gulf Coast League next week. If all goes well he ought to be up with the Twins for the final month, likely as a reliever. As we look ahead to the 2019 season, Pineda's an awfully intriguing factor. He has a 3.60 FIP, 1.19 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 rate as a big-leaguer. If he returns at a similar level, he has a chance to join Romero, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson in a potentially formidable rotation capable of contending for a championship. Which remaining players are you most interested in keeping an eye on as the season winds down?
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Article: Week in Review: Selling and Losing Steam
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't even know where that distinction is coming from. I said the short-term pipeline was robust and it is; the Twins have a lot of top prospects approaching MLB readiness. If you were expecting/hoping to get back prospects you could be confident were going to contribute significantly in 2019, I don't know what to tell ya. The Twins don't have the kind of assets to acquire such pieces, outside of maybe Gibson and that'd sorta defeat the purpose, no?- 19 replies
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Article: Week in Review: Selling and Losing Steam
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Out of the gates, maybe not (Romero and Mejia, possibly, though they don't have prospect status anymore). But plenty of others figure to debut and start acclimating next year: Gonsalves, Thorpe, Gordon, Rooker, Wade, Littell, etc. Even Lewis and Kirilloff aren't far off. I'd categorize all of these players as "short-term pipeline."- 19 replies
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Article: Week in Review: Selling and Losing Steam
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The short-term pipeline is quite robust. The Twins are trying to ensure that they've got plenty more after that wave, and this approach also helps them manage the 40-man roster. It's a good idea even if it's not sexy or exciting at the moment.- 19 replies
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Article: Week in Review: Selling and Losing Steam
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ah, appears you're correct. I thought they moved it back to August 1st a year or two ago? Guess not.- 19 replies
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The Twins bounced back from a crushing sweep in Kansas City with surprising vigor, taking all three contests in Toronto and then the first at Fenway. Unfortunately, it all proved to be too little, too late. The front office was already in talks with trade partners for deadline 'sell' moves, and pulled the trigger on deals to send out Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly in exchange for prospects. The Twins haven't won a game since Escobar's exit was announced on Friday afternoon. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/23 through Sun, 7/29 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 48-56) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: -31) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.0 GB) Despite holding their own on the East Coast leg of their post-break road trip, the Twins essentially waved the white flag over the weekend by trading away key pieces of their lineup and bullpen. Their prospect haul was solid, and featured some pretty clear themes. The top two position players received (Gilberto Celestino and Gabriel Maciel) are speedy outfielders, with presently limited power, who can play center. The top two pitchers (Jorge Alcala and Jhoan Duran) are hard-throwing righties that can miss bats but need work throwing strikes. Alcala, acquired in the Pressly trade, is generally considered the top prize among newly acquired assets (none of which need to occupy 40-man spots yet). The 23-year-old was at Double A in Houston's system and is the only prospect added who's anywhere close to the majors. ESPN's Keith Law writes that Alcala has "shown enough aptitude on the mound that scouts I've talked to feel like he has a chance to start or end up as a high-leverage reliever." HIGHLIGHTS Although he's seen his name sprout up in various rumors and rumblings, Kyle Gibson is still a Twin for now. Ken Rosenthal reported on Friday that the Twins would need to be "blown away" to move the right-hander, and with good reason; one night earlier he'd shut down the Red Sox, allowing one run over eight innings. By silencing the league's best offense in their own yard, Gibson put forth his most impressive performance in a season that's been full of them, another convincing sign he's really pulled it together. If they're maintaining a focus on short-term contention, the Twins are wise to hang onto Gibson for 2019 and perhaps consider negotiating an extension this offseason, when they have some leverage. Although we lost one Ed, we've thankfully still got our Eddie Rosario. On Friday night, as Minnesota's clubhouse reeled from the loss of Escobar, Rosario stepped up and put on a show. With two outs in the top of the ninth, he banged a go-ahead two-run double off the Green Monster against All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel. In the bottom half of that inning, he made a dazzling defensive play at third base – yes, third base, where he'd ended up due to a short-handed bench: Although there hasn't been much for Twins fans to rejoice over the past few months, Mitch Garver is a very notable exception. The rookie backstop has taken off following a slow start, batting .296/.386/.452 in his last 40 games. He's been stellar in July with a .969 OPS and 10-to-9 K/BB ratio in 63 plate appearances. Garver's past week included a four-hit, five-RBI effort in Toronto as well as a crucial RBI double in the opening victory at Fenway. It was also nice to see him draw five starts – four at catcher, one at DH. Hopefully Garver can continue to see that kind of regular usage the rest of the way. If he maintains his strong production he'll solidify himself as a valuable property heading into 2019, while considerably reducing overall concern around the catcher position. LOWLIGHTS One might argue the turning point of this starkly divided week arrived when news of Escobar's departure came down on Friday afternoon. After all, as mentioned earlier, the Twins didn't win another game after that. But really, the turning point came in the ninth inning of Friday night's game. After Rosario's clutch double had given the Twins a lead, Fernando Rodney came in and promptly coughed up a game-tying home run to Rafael Devers. Rodney's sixth blown save came one night after he converted No. 22 in harrowing fashion, walking the bases full with a one-run lead and then going to 3-0 against Jackie Bradley, Jr. before managing to throw three strikes and avert disaster. Rodney had a fantastic run in May and June but has been far less effective of late. In 11 1/3 July innings he has allowed 15 hits and four walks. Last week he surrendered six hits and three walks in four appearances. As the deadline approaches, Rodney is losing some luster as a trade chip. So too is Brian Dozier, whose walk-off grand slam heading into the break failed to serve as a launching pad. Since then, Dozier has zero home runs and a .175 average. Last week he produced one double and two RBIs in seven games. “It stinks," said Dozier of the team's decision to trade Escobar on Friday. He likely feels the same way about enduring such a letdown season on the brink of free agency. Dozier must recognize that his underwhelming play – he's been a net negative at the plate per Win Probability Added – is a direct contributor to this current state of affairs. Miguel Sano, another prime culprit, made his unceremonious return to the Twins roster over the weekend. He hadn't exactly forced the issue with his play at Rochester, where he was 2-for-14 in a brief stint, but Minnesota needed a third baseman after dealing Escobar, and didn't have much to gain by having Sano tread water perpetually at Triple A. Commendably, the slugger looks noticeably leaner now than when we last saw him, but that's where the good news ends. Sano went 0-for-7 with five strikeouts in his first two games back, looking flat-out terrible at the plate. His offensive regression has just been astounding. Once a supremely dominant force with an advanced understanding of the strike zone, he now seems to be guessing in every at-bat. The 2017 All-Star failed to clobber minor-league pitching and now, once again, looks overmatched by big-league arms. By all accounts he's fully healthy, and he's been playing regularly for two months so rust can't really be pegged as a factor. What are the Twins to do other than keep running him out there and hope he improves? Of course, the "Lowlights" section wouldn't be complete without our weekly lament of Matt Belisle and his lingering presence on the roster. As Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz and others toil in the minors, and Matt Magill goes mostly unused in the Twins bullpen, Belisle continues to throw consistently sub-par innings. He lost Friday night's game on two pitches, yielding a walk-off home run to Mookie Betts leading off the 10th. By trading Pressly, who was projecting as a key member of the 2019 bullpen, the Twins have an even greater need to evaluate possible righty relief options going forward. They're doing themselves and the fans a huge disservice by continuing to waste a roster spot and valuable innings on Belisle. TRENDING STORYLINE It's going to be a tense stretch leading up to Tuesday afternoon. Escobar and Pressly are out, with more players sure to follow. Gibson is most likely safe, but he'll be sweating a little as he awaits his next start just after the deadline falls. Lance Lynn is slated to start on Wednesday afternoon. Will he make it there? He made a pretty good impression in his latest effort on Friday, tossing six innings of one-run ball against Boston. Dozier seems almost certain to go – it's only a matter of when, where, and who replaces him. Nick Gordon's quiet arrival in Triple A (he went 1-for-22 in five games last week) suggests he could use more seasoning. Ehire Adrianza would probably be the main replacement, and he deserves a prolonged look; the slick-gloved infielder has an .826 OPS in his past 35 games and could easily play a significant role on next year's team. Rodney and Zach Duke are also on Hug Watch, along with Jake Odorizzi, Logan Morrison and a few others. DOWN ON THE FARM Another week, another series of eye-popping performances from Alex Kirilloff. He ran his hitting streak with the Miracle to 13 last week by collecting hits in every game, finishing 15-for-27 (.556) with six doubles and eight RBIs. Among players with 100 or more plate appearances in the Florida State League, the 20-year-old ranks first in batting average at .384. No one elsse is close. On Saturday night, while Kirilloff was extending his streak, Brusdar Graterol enjoyed a breakout showing for Ft. Myers, striking out 10 over 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, one-run ball. It was a big step forward from his first four starts in the FSL, in which Graterol had yielded a .346 average and managed a mere 6% swinging strike rate. On June 11th, in a game at Scranton Wilkes-Barre against the Yankees' Triple A affiliate, Stephen Gonsalves allowed nine earned runs on nine hits, both the highest totals of his pro career. He has responded to that blip with an absolutely incredible eight-start stretch, in which he has allowed four runs on 23 hits over 46 innings for a 0.89 ERA. During this six-week span, the left-hander has faced 176 batters and given up one extra-base hit. It was a triple, yielded in otherwise sterling effort on Tuesday in which Gonsalves hurled seven scoreless frames. He followed on Sunday with six innings of two-run ball. The most encouraging aspect of last week's work was the crisp control, cleaning up one of the few recurring weaknesses in his performance; across his two last outings, Gonsalves threw 66% strikes and issued two walks in 13 innings. Despite the fine work in his previous six turns, he'd handed out a troubling 21 free passes in 33 frames with 61% strikes. Gonsalves has achieved outstanding results at every level of the minors, so his relative lack of traction among national prospect analysts is conspicuous – especially his ranking 10th among Twins prospects in the updated Baseball America rankings released last week, amidst this untouchable run in the International League. Clearly, many aren't sold on the lanky left-hander, and it isn't too hard to see why. His relatively soft arsenal doesn't match the imposing frame and control issues like his tend to manifest against big-league hitters. For this reason, it'll be key for him to sustain the strike-throwing improvements from last week. One way or another, I suspect we'll see him up in September, if not before. Another lefty who is having no such trouble throwing strikes: Lewis Thorpe, who turned in another pristine performance in Chattanooga on Friday, scattering two hits and a walk over seven scoreless frames with seven strikeouts. He too is riding an amazing eight-start stretch: 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA, 53-to-5 K/BB ratio and one homer allowed in 41 innings. Thorpe is quietly becoming a candidate to play a role for the Twins very early next season. LOOKING AHEAD If things had gone more to plan, this week would shape up as an absolutely pivotal one for the Twins. With the trade deadline looming on Tuesday afternoon, they've got three home games against the division leaders followed by an ostensibly winnable weekend series against the lackluster Royals. From there, Minnesota will head to Cleveland for four more games against the Indians. If they were in the race the Twins would have an opportunity to make a charge for the top of the AL Central over the next 11 days. As things stand, they'd still be six games behind Cleveland even with a sweep at Target Field, and will find it exceedingly difficult to make up the rest of that gap without Escobar, Pressly and whoever else departs in the next couple days. MONDAY, 7/30: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Shane Bieber v. RHP Ervin Santana TUESDAY, 7/31: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Trevor Bauer v. RHP Kyle Gibson WEDNESDAY, 8/1: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Carlos Carrasco v. RHP Lance Lynn FRIDAY, 8/3: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Heath Fillmyer v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SATURDAY, 8/4: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Burch Smith v. RHP Jose Berrios SUNDAY, 8/5: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Danny Duffy v. RHP Ervin Santana Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 98 | MIN 8, TOR 3: Twins Cruise Over TorontoGame 99 | MIN 5, TOR 0: All-Star, IndeedGame 100 | MIN 12, TOR 6: More Like Er-win Sweep-tana!!!Game 101 | MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the GreatGame 102 | BOS 4, MIN 3: No Escobar, But At Least We Still Have BelisleGame 103 | BOS 10, MIN 4: Twins Blow Lead in Spectacular FashionGame 104 | BOS 3, MIN 0: Fenway Freefall ContinuesMore on Twins Daily With Sano returning to the fold, Parker Hageman broke down some video and pictures to see what might've changed during a minor-league resetAndrew Thares looked at what kind of return the Twins might be able to get for Gibson if they end up moving him.SD Burh (unsuccessfully) urged the Twins not to sell.I wrote that despite some setbacks, the vision for a contending team in the near future remains intact. Click here to view the article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/23 through Sun, 7/29 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 48-56) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: -31) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.0 GB) Despite holding their own on the East Coast leg of their post-break road trip, the Twins essentially waved the white flag over the weekend by trading away key pieces of their lineup and bullpen. Their prospect haul was solid, and featured some pretty clear themes. The top two position players received (Gilberto Celestino and Gabriel Maciel) are speedy outfielders, with presently limited power, who can play center. The top two pitchers (Jorge Alcala and Jhoan Duran) are hard-throwing righties that can miss bats but need work throwing strikes. Alcala, acquired in the Pressly trade, is generally considered the top prize among newly acquired assets (none of which need to occupy 40-man spots yet). The 23-year-old was at Double A in Houston's system and is the only prospect added who's anywhere close to the majors. ESPN's Keith Law writes that Alcala has "shown enough aptitude on the mound that scouts I've talked to feel like he has a chance to start or end up as a high-leverage reliever." HIGHLIGHTS Although he's seen his name sprout up in various rumors and rumblings, Kyle Gibson is still a Twin for now. Ken Rosenthal reported on Friday that the Twins would need to be "blown away" to move the right-hander, and with good reason; one night earlier he'd shut down the Red Sox, allowing one run over eight innings. By silencing the league's best offense in their own yard, Gibson put forth his most impressive performance in a season that's been full of them, another convincing sign he's really pulled it together. If they're maintaining a focus on short-term contention, the Twins are wise to hang onto Gibson for 2019 and perhaps consider negotiating an extension this offseason, when they have some leverage. Although we lost one Ed, we've thankfully still got our Eddie Rosario. On Friday night, as Minnesota's clubhouse reeled from the loss of Escobar, Rosario stepped up and put on a show. With two outs in the top of the ninth, he banged a go-ahead two-run double off the Green Monster against All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel. In the bottom half of that inning, he made a dazzling defensive play at third base – yes, third base, where he'd ended up due to a short-handed bench: https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1023034279675265025 Although there hasn't been much for Twins fans to rejoice over the past few months, Mitch Garver is a very notable exception. The rookie backstop has taken off following a slow start, batting .296/.386/.452 in his last 40 games. He's been stellar in July with a .969 OPS and 10-to-9 K/BB ratio in 63 plate appearances. Garver's past week included a four-hit, five-RBI effort in Toronto as well as a crucial RBI double in the opening victory at Fenway. It was also nice to see him draw five starts – four at catcher, one at DH. Hopefully Garver can continue to see that kind of regular usage the rest of the way. If he maintains his strong production he'll solidify himself as a valuable property heading into 2019, while considerably reducing overall concern around the catcher position. LOWLIGHTS One might argue the turning point of this starkly divided week arrived when news of Escobar's departure came down on Friday afternoon. After all, as mentioned earlier, the Twins didn't win another game after that. But really, the turning point came in the ninth inning of Friday night's game. After Rosario's clutch double had given the Twins a lead, Fernando Rodney came in and promptly coughed up a game-tying home run to Rafael Devers. Rodney's sixth blown save came one night after he converted No. 22 in harrowing fashion, walking the bases full with a one-run lead and then going to 3-0 against Jackie Bradley, Jr. before managing to throw three strikes and avert disaster. Rodney had a fantastic run in May and June but has been far less effective of late. In 11 1/3 July innings he has allowed 15 hits and four walks. Last week he surrendered six hits and three walks in four appearances. As the deadline approaches, Rodney is losing some luster as a trade chip. So too is Brian Dozier, whose walk-off grand slam heading into the break failed to serve as a launching pad. Since then, Dozier has zero home runs and a .175 average. Last week he produced one double and two RBIs in seven games. “It stinks," said Dozier of the team's decision to trade Escobar on Friday. He likely feels the same way about enduring such a letdown season on the brink of free agency. Dozier must recognize that his underwhelming play – he's been a net negative at the plate per Win Probability Added – is a direct contributor to this current state of affairs. Miguel Sano, another prime culprit, made his unceremonious return to the Twins roster over the weekend. He hadn't exactly forced the issue with his play at Rochester, where he was 2-for-14 in a brief stint, but Minnesota needed a third baseman after dealing Escobar, and didn't have much to gain by having Sano tread water perpetually at Triple A. Commendably, the slugger looks noticeably leaner now than when we last saw him, but that's where the good news ends. Sano went 0-for-7 with five strikeouts in his first two games back, looking flat-out terrible at the plate. His offensive regression has just been astounding. Once a supremely dominant force with an advanced understanding of the strike zone, he now seems to be guessing in every at-bat. The 2017 All-Star failed to clobber minor-league pitching and now, once again, looks overmatched by big-league arms. By all accounts he's fully healthy, and he's been playing regularly for two months so rust can't really be pegged as a factor. What are the Twins to do other than keep running him out there and hope he improves? Of course, the "Lowlights" section wouldn't be complete without our weekly lament of Matt Belisle and his lingering presence on the roster. As Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz and others toil in the minors, and Matt Magill goes mostly unused in the Twins bullpen, Belisle continues to throw consistently sub-par innings. He lost Friday night's game on two pitches, yielding a walk-off home run to Mookie Betts leading off the 10th. By trading Pressly, who was projecting as a key member of the 2019 bullpen, the Twins have an even greater need to evaluate possible righty relief options going forward. They're doing themselves and the fans a huge disservice by continuing to waste a roster spot and valuable innings on Belisle. TRENDING STORYLINE It's going to be a tense stretch leading up to Tuesday afternoon. Escobar and Pressly are out, with more players sure to follow. Gibson is most likely safe, but he'll be sweating a little as he awaits his next start just after the deadline falls. Lance Lynn is slated to start on Wednesday afternoon. Will he make it there? He made a pretty good impression in his latest effort on Friday, tossing six innings of one-run ball against Boston. Dozier seems almost certain to go – it's only a matter of when, where, and who replaces him. Nick Gordon's quiet arrival in Triple A (he went 1-for-22 in five games last week) suggests he could use more seasoning. Ehire Adrianza would probably be the main replacement, and he deserves a prolonged look; the slick-gloved infielder has an .826 OPS in his past 35 games and could easily play a significant role on next year's team. Rodney and Zach Duke are also on Hug Watch, along with Jake Odorizzi, Logan Morrison and a few others. DOWN ON THE FARM Another week, another series of eye-popping performances from Alex Kirilloff. He ran his hitting streak with the Miracle to 13 last week by collecting hits in every game, finishing 15-for-27 (.556) with six doubles and eight RBIs. Among players with 100 or more plate appearances in the Florida State League, the 20-year-old ranks first in batting average at .384. No one elsse is close. On Saturday night, while Kirilloff was extending his streak, Brusdar Graterol enjoyed a breakout showing for Ft. Myers, striking out 10 over 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, one-run ball. It was a big step forward from his first four starts in the FSL, in which Graterol had yielded a .346 average and managed a mere 6% swinging strike rate. On June 11th, in a game at Scranton Wilkes-Barre against the Yankees' Triple A affiliate, Stephen Gonsalves allowed nine earned runs on nine hits, both the highest totals of his pro career. He has responded to that blip with an absolutely incredible eight-start stretch, in which he has allowed four runs on 23 hits over 46 innings for a 0.89 ERA. During this six-week span, the left-hander has faced 176 batters and given up one extra-base hit. It was a triple, yielded in otherwise sterling effort on Tuesday in which Gonsalves hurled seven scoreless frames. He followed on Sunday with six innings of two-run ball. The most encouraging aspect of last week's work was the crisp control, cleaning up one of the few recurring weaknesses in his performance; across his two last outings, Gonsalves threw 66% strikes and issued two walks in 13 innings. Despite the fine work in his previous six turns, he'd handed out a troubling 21 free passes in 33 frames with 61% strikes. Gonsalves has achieved outstanding results at every level of the minors, so his relative lack of traction among national prospect analysts is conspicuous – especially his ranking 10th among Twins prospects in the updated Baseball America rankings released last week, amidst this untouchable run in the International League. Clearly, many aren't sold on the lanky left-hander, and it isn't too hard to see why. His relatively soft arsenal doesn't match the imposing frame and control issues like his tend to manifest against big-league hitters. For this reason, it'll be key for him to sustain the strike-throwing improvements from last week. One way or another, I suspect we'll see him up in September, if not before. Another lefty who is having no such trouble throwing strikes: Lewis Thorpe, who turned in another pristine performance in Chattanooga on Friday, scattering two hits and a walk over seven scoreless frames with seven strikeouts. He too is riding an amazing eight-start stretch: 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA, 53-to-5 K/BB ratio and one homer allowed in 41 innings. Thorpe is quietly becoming a candidate to play a role for the Twins very early next season. LOOKING AHEAD If things had gone more to plan, this week would shape up as an absolutely pivotal one for the Twins. With the trade deadline looming on Tuesday afternoon, they've got three home games against the division leaders followed by an ostensibly winnable weekend series against the lackluster Royals. From there, Minnesota will head to Cleveland for four more games against the Indians. If they were in the race the Twins would have an opportunity to make a charge for the top of the AL Central over the next 11 days. As things stand, they'd still be six games behind Cleveland even with a sweep at Target Field, and will find it exceedingly difficult to make up the rest of that gap without Escobar, Pressly and whoever else departs in the next couple days. MONDAY, 7/30: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Shane Bieber v. RHP Ervin Santana TUESDAY, 7/31: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Trevor Bauer v. RHP Kyle Gibson WEDNESDAY, 8/1: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Carlos Carrasco v. RHP Lance Lynn FRIDAY, 8/3: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Heath Fillmyer v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SATURDAY, 8/4: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Burch Smith v. RHP Jose Berrios SUNDAY, 8/5: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Danny Duffy v. RHP Ervin Santana Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 98 | MIN 8, TOR 3: Twins Cruise Over Toronto Game 99 | MIN 5, TOR 0: All-Star, Indeed Game 100 | MIN 12, TOR 6: More Like Er-win Sweep-tana!!! Game 101 | MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the Great Game 102 | BOS 4, MIN 3: No Escobar, But At Least We Still Have Belisle Game 103 | BOS 10, MIN 4: Twins Blow Lead in Spectacular Fashion Game 104 | BOS 3, MIN 0: Fenway Freefall Continues More on Twins Daily With Sano returning to the fold, Parker Hageman broke down some video and pictures to see what might've changed during a minor-league reset Andrew Thares looked at what kind of return the Twins might be able to get for Gibson if they end up moving him. SD Burh (unsuccessfully) urged the Twins not to sell. I wrote that despite some setbacks, the vision for a contending team in the near future remains intact.
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I wasn't ripping it. I agree it was a good discussion. I was just genuinely caught off-guard when I saw the thread title pop up on the sidebar. It baffles me that any fans would place significant blame on this front office. They haven't been perfect but from my view the sum of their work has been excellent.
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I'm bullish on 2019 (which is a big reason why I say the Twins cannot trade Gibson unless totally overwhelmed by an offer), but 2020 is a more realistic timeline for those emerging top prospects to enter the fold and take things to the next level.
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Yeah... I wrote a post during spring training last year about his hazardous track record and the concerns they cast on his future.
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By all accounts they did seriously pursue both. Ohtani had no interest in pitching here. They offered Darvish more than $100 million.
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The stunning lapses from Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton this year are distressing not just because of the short-term impact – a lost season on the front-end of Minnesota's contention window – but more so because of the long-term implications. Expected to be cornerstone superstars by the time 2020 rolled around, Sano and Buxton have endured tumultuous campaigns that call those expectations into doubt. Right now it feels questionable to count on either. This is very bad. In many cases it would be disastrous. Crippling. But, shifting our attention to the bright side: Where 2020 is concerned, everything else is shaping up beautifully.In the theoretical conjurings of worst-case scenarios for this 2018 season, "Buxton and Sano both optioned to the minors" would've ranked pretty high. And now, as Sano fails to inflict damage against Triple-A pitching, while Buxton remains sidelined by yet another injury, after much the same... faith is wavering. What if Sano ends up being no more than a plodding, all-or-nothing DH? What if Buxton never finds a way to sustain health and production? These are real possibilities. But they are far from set in stone. All things considered, both players are young, and irrefutably talented. Sano and Buxton have several years left to figure things out in Minnesota. What's most comforting is this: pressure is being lifted off their shoulders. Elsewhere, it's pretty much all going to plan. I've heard some grumblings about the front office. I even came across a thread here asking if they owe fans an apology (?). But lest anyone forget: this regime has already gotten it extremely right on at least two vital occasions: 1) They didn't meet Yu Darvish's demands. People around here got AWFULLY huffy when his deal with the Cubs was announced. When I suggested the Twins might have been wise to avoid the risks associated with Darvish's decidedly team-unfriendly contract, it wasn't exactly a popular take. Now, he's a mess, plagued by elbow issues and struggling when on the mound. This'll mark Darvish's fifth consecutive year coming up short of 200 innings. He turns 32 in a few weeks. And the Cubs are locked in for $100 million over the next five years. The Twins held their ground, and – as with their rebukes of LA's underwhelming offers for Brian Dozier the previous winter – it was a decision that very quickly looked very smart. If Darvish signed here and followed the same path, this club would be in rough shape. 2) They drafted freaking Royce Lewis. It's almost hard to fathom by now, but when Minnesota selected Lewis with the first overall pick, it was a pretty controversial and unconventional choice. No publications covering the draft pegged him as the No. 1 talent, and very few forecasted him as even a top three pick. Lewis' relatively low profile enabled the Twins to sign him at a big discount, and use that saved money to juice up later picks. But that's only icing on the cake. One year later, Lewis is the crown jewel of Minnesota's system, and one of the most heralded talents in all the minors. He's far more accomplished than any of the players ranked ahead of him on pre-draft boards. Presently posting above-average production as a 19-year-old shortstop in the Florida State League, Lewis is tracking to become the youngest Twins player to debut in decades. His ETA right now looks like late 2019 or early 2020, and thus far Lewis has proven a very fast learner at every level. Of course, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can't take much credit for the rest of the enviable situation they've inherited. Alex Kirilloff, who's crushing the Florida State League alongside Lewis (he notched three hits on Thursday night and is batting .383 for the Miracle), was drafted in the first round about one month before Terry Ryan's dismissal. Right now it's looking like a brilliant endcap to Ryan's tenure, and a true scouting success – it's a lot harder to find such transcendent talents with the fifteenth pick than the first. And then the there is the starting rotation. A sore spot for so long, finally coming together. Consider this: Jose Berrios played in the All-Star Game last week at age 24. Fernando Romero, 23, has shown elite stuff to match. And Kyle Gibson is fulfilling his promise at long last. This trio, from my view, presents a worthy core for a contending rotation, with stud prospect Brusdar Graterol (another product of the Ryan regime) on the way to joining them – perhaps right around 2020. The point here is that the Twins have enough high-caliber talent incoming that they can live with either Buxton or Sano coming well short of his potential – maybe even both. The outlook going forward is bright even with those two playing supporting roles rather than steering the ship. But I'm not ready to count out the possibility that one or both will rebound and reconnect with his previous trajectory. If they can get back on track, and meet with the other talent rising through the other premier talent rising through this system – say, around 2020? – that's going to be something to see. Click here to view the article
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In the theoretical conjurings of worst-case scenarios for this 2018 season, "Buxton and Sano both optioned to the minors" would've ranked pretty high. And now, as Sano fails to inflict damage against Triple-A pitching, while Buxton remains sidelined by yet another injury, after much the same... faith is wavering. What if Sano ends up being no more than a plodding, all-or-nothing DH? What if Buxton never finds a way to sustain health and production? These are real possibilities. But they are far from set in stone. All things considered, both players are young, and irrefutably talented. Sano and Buxton have several years left to figure things out in Minnesota. What's most comforting is this: pressure is being lifted off their shoulders. Elsewhere, it's pretty much all going to plan. I've heard some grumblings about the front office. I even came across a thread here asking if they owe fans an apology (?). But lest anyone forget: this regime has already gotten it extremely right on at least two vital occasions: 1) They didn't meet Yu Darvish's demands. People around here got AWFULLY huffy when his deal with the Cubs was announced. When I suggested the Twins might have been wise to avoid the risks associated with Darvish's decidedly team-unfriendly contract, it wasn't exactly a popular take. Now, he's a mess, plagued by elbow issues and struggling when on the mound. This'll mark Darvish's fifth consecutive year coming up short of 200 innings. He turns 32 in a few weeks. And the Cubs are locked in for $100 million over the next five years. The Twins held their ground, and – as with their rebukes of LA's underwhelming offers for Brian Dozier the previous winter – it was a decision that very quickly looked very smart. If Darvish signed here and followed the same path, this club would be in rough shape. 2) They drafted freaking Royce Lewis. It's almost hard to fathom by now, but when Minnesota selected Lewis with the first overall pick, it was a pretty controversial and unconventional choice. No publications covering the draft pegged him as the No. 1 talent, and very few forecasted him as even a top three pick. Lewis' relatively low profile enabled the Twins to sign him at a big discount, and use that saved money to juice up later picks. But that's only icing on the cake. One year later, Lewis is the crown jewel of Minnesota's system, and one of the most heralded talents in all the minors. He's far more accomplished than any of the players ranked ahead of him on pre-draft boards. Presently posting above-average production as a 19-year-old shortstop in the Florida State League, Lewis is tracking to become the youngest Twins player to debut in decades. His ETA right now looks like late 2019 or early 2020, and thus far Lewis has proven a very fast learner at every level. Of course, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can't take much credit for the rest of the enviable situation they've inherited. Alex Kirilloff, who's crushing the Florida State League alongside Lewis (he notched three hits on Thursday night and is batting .383 for the Miracle), was drafted in the first round about one month before Terry Ryan's dismissal. Right now it's looking like a brilliant endcap to Ryan's tenure, and a true scouting success – it's a lot harder to find such transcendent talents with the fifteenth pick than the first. And then the there is the starting rotation. A sore spot for so long, finally coming together. Consider this: Jose Berrios played in the All-Star Game last week at age 24. Fernando Romero, 23, has shown elite stuff to match. And Kyle Gibson is fulfilling his promise at long last. This trio, from my view, presents a worthy core for a contending rotation, with stud prospect Brusdar Graterol (another product of the Ryan regime) on the way to joining them – perhaps right around 2020. The point here is that the Twins have enough high-caliber talent incoming that they can live with either Buxton or Sano coming well short of his potential – maybe even both. The outlook going forward is bright even with those two playing supporting roles rather than steering the ship. But I'm not ready to count out the possibility that one or both will rebound and reconnect with his previous trajectory. If they can get back on track, and meet with the other talent rising through the other premier talent rising through this system – say, around 2020? – that's going to be something to see.
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Whatever goodwill their 9-2 home stand heading into the All-Star break generated, both with a frustrated fan base and fatigued front office, the Twins saw it evaporate over the weekend, like mists rising from the Kauffman Stadium fountains. A crushing sweep against one of the worst teams in baseball sealed Minnesota's fate for 2018, adding yet another low point to a failure-filled campaign. Now, all that's left is to pick up the pieces and look ahead. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/16 through Sun, 7/22 *** Record Last Week: 0-3 (Overall: 44-53) Run Differential Last Week: -5 (Overall: -28) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS Kauffman Stadium. That's almost it, really. I traveled down to Kansas City with my fiancée for the weekend and we enjoyed the hell out of that ballpark with its terrific views, monster Jumbotron and all-around high-caliber fan experience. Not so much the baseball. The Twins played in a legendary yard under beautiful weather over the weekend, but that's where the positive vibes ended. Okay, I shouldn't go quite that far. Jake Odorizzi turned in an excellent outing on Sunday afternoon, firing six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts while allowing only two hits and one walk. Since punctuating a rough midseason stretch with his worst outing on June 23rd (6 ER in 1 2/3 innings), Odorizzi has rebounded in a big way, turning in a 2.96 ERA with 33 strikeouts over 27 innings in five starts. Crucially, the right-hander has finally started keeping the ball in the park. After coughing up 14 home runs in 12 starts between April and May, Odorizzi has surrendered only two long balls in nine turns since the start of June. By remedying his biggest weakness while maintaining a career-high strikeout rate, the 28-year-old may be building himself some legitimate trade value as the deadline approaches. Joe Mauer tallied two hits on Friday and three more on Saturday, including his 415th career double, which made him the franchise's all-time leader. Another awesome accomplishment in a widely underrated career. LOWLIGHTS In spite of Mauer's efforts, the offense couldn't muster much of anything against the American League's worst pitching staff. Heading into the break, it seemed as though the lineup was finally turning a corner – they'd managed double-digit run totals in seven of their last 16 games after doing so just once in their first 77 – but Twins hitters came out completely flat in KC. This sweep basically punched Brian Dozier's ticket out of town, but his punchless performance won't do anything to help Minnesota drum up a decent return. Entering the series, Dozier had an OPS over 1.000 for the month of July, and he was riding high after ending the first half with a walk-off grand slam, but the second baseman's momentum came to a screeching halt as he went 1-for-12. Jake Cave's luster is quickly wearing off. After sitting against left-hander Danny Duffy on Friday, Cave started on Saturday and went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. On Sunday he went 0-for-2 at the plate and, in center field, misplayed a Drew Butera single into an inside-the-park three-run homer. Following a strong start to his MLB career, Cave's inexperience and poor plate discipline (31% K vs. 6% BB) are coming home to roost. All the more reason to give him plenty of playing time the rest of the way. Conversely, I think we'd all be cool with Lance Lynn seeing zero playing time as a Twin for the remainder of eternity. His laborious start on Saturday – 118 pitches needed to get through five innings as six walks pushed his league-leading total to 61 – solidified Lynn's standing as the most inefficient pitcher in Twins history. There's been a lot of chatter this summer about the declining watchability of Major League Baseball, and Lynn feels like a microcosm of the loudening complaints. Saturday's outing wasn't terrible where the scoresheet is concerned, as he allowed three runs on three hits with six strikeouts over five frames and kept things within reach, but he made the game a complete chore to spectate – for the fielders as much as the fans, I'd suspect. It'd be great if the Twins did us all the favor of removing that chore from our August and September agendas. But with the way he's pitched, finding a taker for Lynn's ~$5 million in remaining salary won't be easy. Hard to imagine many legit contenders viewing him as an upgrade. TRENDING STORYLINE With just over a week left until the trade deadline, the rumor mill is sure to get popping over these next seven days. Now that the dream of having him lead another improbable late-season surge has died, the Twins really have no reason to keep Dozier around. The quiet series in Kansas City threw a bit of cold water on his ascending stock, but Dozier still has six home runs and 20 RBIs over 25 games in the last calendar month, to go along with an outstanding rep. The Twins will find a willing trade partner on Dozier, I have little doubt. Milwaukee looks like a solid bet. But will Thad Levine be able to reel in any assets of value, or simply achieve salary relief? If it comes down to it, I'm guessing he'd settle merely for the latter. Ownership green-lighted a record payroll this year only to watch the team go down in flames, so recouping whatever they can will be a deadline priority for the front office – albeit an unexciting one. Lynn is owed more than Dozier, and as mentioned above, the Twins would undoubtedly love to unload his remaining commitment. They'd most assuredly get nothing else of consequence in a deal, but that's okay. Same goes for Logan Morrison; he's owed only $2 million or so after August 1st, but has a $1 million buyout on his 2019 option. Both Lynn and Morrison have obviously been quite bad this year, but they are veterans with track records, and in each case there are underlying signs to suggest the ugly numbers aren't an entirely accurate reflection of their play. Maybe other generals managers are open to taking such leaps of faith, given the meager return that'll be required. If the Twins can trade Dozier, Lynn and Morrison without having to cover any salary, they'd shave around $10 million, which would theoretically go toward the 2019 cap. Recent evidence suggests $10 mil can stretch pretty far on the free agent market, so it's not for nothing. If they want to get back any young talent worthy of excitement, the Twins will probably have to move players with a bit more allure. The most interesting name in that camp, from my view, is Eduardo Escobar. Although his power has dissipated a bit here in July, he still ranks seventh among big-leaguers in extra-base hits. His versatility, and ability to play shortstop especially, will make him a commodity even though he's due for free agency in November. Some might disagree, but I see Escobar as Minnesota's only valid candidate for a qualifying offer. If he accepts, he'll make around $18 million next year, which is clearly an overpay but probably one the Twins can live with, given their scarce commitments elsewhere and the convenience of keeping Esco on a one-year deal while we see how things shake out with the rest of the young infielders. I also don't think it's entirely a given that Escobar accepts a QO. No, he won't make $18 million annually on a long-term contract anywhere, but is it unrealistic to think someone bids, say, three years and $45 million? Coming off a probable career year at age 29, Escobar may well be eyeing security and stability. Should he sign elsewhere, the Twins would receive a high draft pick, helping negate what they lost this season by signing Lynn. Two pitchers, Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, will be the other names to keep an eye on. Each is throwing well and controllable for 2019 at a reasonable cost, so they are only moving if another club is really prepared to pony up. DOWN ON THE FARM The legend of Royce Lewis just continues to grow. The 19-year-old is making himself right at home against advanced competition in the Florida State League, where he is sporting a .313 average and .840 OPS through eight games. This week saw him notch a pair of multi-hit games and his first home run with the Miracle. Most expected the power would come along gradually for Lewis, who isn't all that physically developed yet, but he already has 10 home runs and a .483 slugging percentage in 83 games between the two levels of A-ball. His teammate Alex Kirilloff returned from a successful showing in the Futures Game last Sunday, and got right back to work by posting a leisurely 12-for-22 (.545) with three doubles, a triple and a homer. My goodness can this man hit. Brusdar Graterol, who rounds out the trio of top prospects on display in Fort Myers, picked up his first FSL win on Friday, and while it wasn't a spectacular outing (4 ER in 6 IP), it was definitely a step forward as he struck out seven and limited Lakeland to five hits. Upon returning from a short leave of absence, Miguel Sano received a bump to Rochester, pushing him closer to a big-league return. Looking noticeably slimmer in a Red Wings uniform, Sano has opened up his time in Triple-A by going 0-for-8 in two games. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins are 1-12 in their last 13 road games, and the going gets no easier. First they travel to Toronto, where they've historically had a very tough time, for three against the Jays. Then it's off to Boston for a four-gamer against the best team in baseball. Minnesota is reeling, and traveling to a couple of road destinations that have proven vexing over the years. Adalberto Mejia, who was lit up in his last Triple-A start, is scheduled to face two high-powered offenses in very hitter-friendly yards. Don't bother uncovering your eyes, Twins fans, because things are likely to get even uglier this week. MONDAY, 7/23: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – LHP Adalberto Mejia v. RHP Marco Estrada TUESDAY, 7/24: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Jose Berrios vs LHP Ryan Borucki WEDNESDAY, 7/25: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Sam Gaviglio THURSDAY, 7/26: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Lance Lynn v. LHP Brian Johnson FRIDAY, 7/27: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. LHP Chris Sale SATURDAY, 7/28: TWINS @ RED SOX – LHP Adalberto Mejia v. RHP Rick Porcello SUNDAY, 7/29: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Drew Pomeranz Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 95 | KC 6, MIN 5: Maybe It’s Better Off This Way?Game 97 | KC 5, MIN 3: Royals Sweep Twins, Butera Hits Inside-the-Park Homer (Seriously) Click here to view the article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/16 through Sun, 7/22 *** Record Last Week: 0-3 (Overall: 44-53) Run Differential Last Week: -5 (Overall: -28) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS Kauffman Stadium. That's almost it, really. I traveled down to Kansas City with my fiancée for the weekend and we enjoyed the hell out of that ballpark with its terrific views, monster Jumbotron and all-around high-caliber fan experience. Not so much the baseball. The Twins played in a legendary yard under beautiful weather over the weekend, but that's where the positive vibes ended. Okay, I shouldn't go quite that far. Jake Odorizzi turned in an excellent outing on Sunday afternoon, firing six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts while allowing only two hits and one walk. Since punctuating a rough midseason stretch with his worst outing on June 23rd (6 ER in 1 2/3 innings), Odorizzi has rebounded in a big way, turning in a 2.96 ERA with 33 strikeouts over 27 innings in five starts. Crucially, the right-hander has finally started keeping the ball in the park. After coughing up 14 home runs in 12 starts between April and May, Odorizzi has surrendered only two long balls in nine turns since the start of June. By remedying his biggest weakness while maintaining a career-high strikeout rate, the 28-year-old may be building himself some legitimate trade value as the deadline approaches. Joe Mauer tallied two hits on Friday and three more on Saturday, including his 415th career double, which made him the franchise's all-time leader. Another awesome accomplishment in a widely underrated career. LOWLIGHTS In spite of Mauer's efforts, the offense couldn't muster much of anything against the American League's worst pitching staff. Heading into the break, it seemed as though the lineup was finally turning a corner – they'd managed double-digit run totals in seven of their last 16 games after doing so just once in their first 77 – but Twins hitters came out completely flat in KC. This sweep basically punched Brian Dozier's ticket out of town, but his punchless performance won't do anything to help Minnesota drum up a decent return. Entering the series, Dozier had an OPS over 1.000 for the month of July, and he was riding high after ending the first half with a walk-off grand slam, but the second baseman's momentum came to a screeching halt as he went 1-for-12. Jake Cave's luster is quickly wearing off. After sitting against left-hander Danny Duffy on Friday, Cave started on Saturday and went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. On Sunday he went 0-for-2 at the plate and, in center field, misplayed a Drew Butera single into an inside-the-park three-run homer. Following a strong start to his MLB career, Cave's inexperience and poor plate discipline (31% K vs. 6% BB) are coming home to roost. All the more reason to give him plenty of playing time the rest of the way. Conversely, I think we'd all be cool with Lance Lynn seeing zero playing time as a Twin for the remainder of eternity. His laborious start on Saturday – 118 pitches needed to get through five innings as six walks pushed his league-leading total to 61 – solidified Lynn's standing as the most inefficient pitcher in Twins history. There's been a lot of chatter this summer about the declining watchability of Major League Baseball, and Lynn feels like a microcosm of the loudening complaints. Saturday's outing wasn't terrible where the scoresheet is concerned, as he allowed three runs on three hits with six strikeouts over five frames and kept things within reach, but he made the game a complete chore to spectate – for the fielders as much as the fans, I'd suspect. It'd be great if the Twins did us all the favor of removing that chore from our August and September agendas. But with the way he's pitched, finding a taker for Lynn's ~$5 million in remaining salary won't be easy. Hard to imagine many legit contenders viewing him as an upgrade. TRENDING STORYLINE With just over a week left until the trade deadline, the rumor mill is sure to get popping over these next seven days. Now that the dream of having him lead another improbable late-season surge has died, the Twins really have no reason to keep Dozier around. The quiet series in Kansas City threw a bit of cold water on his ascending stock, but Dozier still has six home runs and 20 RBIs over 25 games in the last calendar month, to go along with an outstanding rep. The Twins will find a willing trade partner on Dozier, I have little doubt. Milwaukee looks like a solid bet. But will Thad Levine be able to reel in any assets of value, or simply achieve salary relief? If it comes down to it, I'm guessing he'd settle merely for the latter. Ownership green-lighted a record payroll this year only to watch the team go down in flames, so recouping whatever they can will be a deadline priority for the front office – albeit an unexciting one. Lynn is owed more than Dozier, and as mentioned above, the Twins would undoubtedly love to unload his remaining commitment. They'd most assuredly get nothing else of consequence in a deal, but that's okay. Same goes for Logan Morrison; he's owed only $2 million or so after August 1st, but has a $1 million buyout on his 2019 option. Both Lynn and Morrison have obviously been quite bad this year, but they are veterans with track records, and in each case there are underlying signs to suggest the ugly numbers aren't an entirely accurate reflection of their play. Maybe other generals managers are open to taking such leaps of faith, given the meager return that'll be required. If the Twins can trade Dozier, Lynn and Morrison without having to cover any salary, they'd shave around $10 million, which would theoretically go toward the 2019 cap. Recent evidence suggests $10 mil can stretch pretty far on the free agent market, so it's not for nothing. If they want to get back any young talent worthy of excitement, the Twins will probably have to move players with a bit more allure. The most interesting name in that camp, from my view, is Eduardo Escobar. Although his power has dissipated a bit here in July, he still ranks seventh among big-leaguers in extra-base hits. His versatility, and ability to play shortstop especially, will make him a commodity even though he's due for free agency in November. Some might disagree, but I see Escobar as Minnesota's only valid candidate for a qualifying offer. If he accepts, he'll make around $18 million next year, which is clearly an overpay but probably one the Twins can live with, given their scarce commitments elsewhere and the convenience of keeping Esco on a one-year deal while we see how things shake out with the rest of the young infielders. I also don't think it's entirely a given that Escobar accepts a QO. No, he won't make $18 million annually on a long-term contract anywhere, but is it unrealistic to think someone bids, say, three years and $45 million? Coming off a probable career year at age 29, Escobar may well be eyeing security and stability. Should he sign elsewhere, the Twins would receive a high draft pick, helping negate what they lost this season by signing Lynn. Two pitchers, Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, will be the other names to keep an eye on. Each is throwing well and controllable for 2019 at a reasonable cost, so they are only moving if another club is really prepared to pony up. DOWN ON THE FARM The legend of Royce Lewis just continues to grow. The 19-year-old is making himself right at home against advanced competition in the Florida State League, where he is sporting a .313 average and .840 OPS through eight games. This week saw him notch a pair of multi-hit games and his first home run with the Miracle. Most expected the power would come along gradually for Lewis, who isn't all that physically developed yet, but he already has 10 home runs and a .483 slugging percentage in 83 games between the two levels of A-ball. His teammate Alex Kirilloff returned from a successful showing in the Futures Game last Sunday, and got right back to work by posting a leisurely 12-for-22 (.545) with three doubles, a triple and a homer. My goodness can this man hit. Brusdar Graterol, who rounds out the trio of top prospects on display in Fort Myers, picked up his first FSL win on Friday, and while it wasn't a spectacular outing (4 ER in 6 IP), it was definitely a step forward as he struck out seven and limited Lakeland to five hits. Upon returning from a short leave of absence, Miguel Sano received a bump to Rochester, pushing him closer to a big-league return. Looking noticeably slimmer in a Red Wings uniform, Sano has opened up his time in Triple-A by going 0-for-8 in two games. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins are 1-12 in their last 13 road games, and the going gets no easier. First they travel to Toronto, where they've historically had a very tough time, for three against the Jays. Then it's off to Boston for a four-gamer against the best team in baseball. Minnesota is reeling, and traveling to a couple of road destinations that have proven vexing over the years. Adalberto Mejia, who was lit up in his last Triple-A start, is scheduled to face two high-powered offenses in very hitter-friendly yards. Don't bother uncovering your eyes, Twins fans, because things are likely to get even uglier this week. MONDAY, 7/23: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – LHP Adalberto Mejia v. RHP Marco Estrada TUESDAY, 7/24: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Jose Berrios vs LHP Ryan Borucki WEDNESDAY, 7/25: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Sam Gaviglio THURSDAY, 7/26: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Lance Lynn v. LHP Brian Johnson FRIDAY, 7/27: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. LHP Chris Sale SATURDAY, 7/28: TWINS @ RED SOX – LHP Adalberto Mejia v. RHP Rick Porcello SUNDAY, 7/29: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Drew Pomeranz Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 95 | KC 6, MIN 5: Maybe It’s Better Off This Way? Game 97 | KC 5, MIN 3: Royals Sweep Twins, Butera Hits Inside-the-Park Homer (Seriously)
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Article: All Eyes on Fort Myers
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If this was my day job and I had the time/energy chase down all that info, yes I agree it would've been nice to include it all. In reality, this article was simply a talker, written late-night before I headed out of town because I thought it was interesting to see the organization's fast-rising top prospects (briefly) stationed alongside the stalled-out superstar – almost exactly one year after Sano appeared in the All-Star Game. In pieces like this, my hope is that the commenters will add in perspective to round out the topic, and from my view they've done so here. Thanks to all who have contributed links and insight.- 38 replies
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In February and March, Fort Myers isn't just the center of the Twins baseball universe. It IS the Twins baseball universe. Pitchers and catchers report, followed shortly by the rest of the roster. Coaches and front office personnel, from every corner of the organization, gradually assemble. Minor-leaguers eventually show up – all of them. Every media member who covers the team in any capacity is on hand for at least a while. Even a bunch of bloggers from Twins Daily are regularly seen awkwardly stumbling about the bowels of Hammond Stadium. Spring training is almost overwhelming in its scale. For about six weeks, Lee County Sports Complex IS the Twins, making the franchise's supposed hometown of Minneapolis feel further even than its considerable geographic distance. But by the time Opening Day arrives, it all changes. Players, coaches, and execs pack up and ship out. The complex goes from hosting a half-dozen teams to one – the Single-A Fort Myers Miracle, along with a smattering of young kids and extended spring assignees. Usually, focus shifts to Minnesota for the balance of the year. But this ain't your usual season. And as the All Star break concludes, Twins fans are finding far more reason to stay rigidly tuned into the happenings in Fort Myers than to closely follow the big-league club.By wrapping up the first half with a 9-2 home stand, Minnesota undid the damage of a disastrous 1-8 road trip, but this only returned them to their lackluster watermark: six games below .500 and trailing Cleveland by more than a touchdown in the standings. While this recent run has done enough to give the front office pause about unloading everything at the deadline, hope remains a tough sell in the Twin Cities. Less so in Southwest Florida. The Miracle roster currently boasts the top three Twins prospects: teenage phenom Royce Lewis, jaw-dropping hitter Alex Kirilloff, and flamethrowing righty Brusdar Graterol. In the newly updated Baseball America Top 100 rankings, those three rank 10th, 37th, and 61st respectively. It's worth scrolling straight to the "Miracle Matters" section of our minor-league reports each day just to see how this trio performed, and they rarely seem to disappoint. On Wednesday night Kirilloff notched four hits, lifting his average to .323. He has 75 RBIs in 89 games this year between two levels. Lewis, the second-youngest hitter to take an at-bat in the Florida State League, is batting .400 through five games there. And while Graterol hasn't fared well in his first three starts with the Miracle, he is one of only three teenage pitchers in the FSL. His ability is obvious to anyone in range. Baseball America exclaims that he "has the highest ceiling of any Twins pitching prospect, projecting rotation-topping potential." These three players equip Minnesota with a more promising future pipeline than almost any other team can tout, but that "future" part is the sticking point. Twins fans have been looking ahead for eight years. Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol are all extremely young by Single-A standards, which says a lot about realistic MLB timelines. All of which brings us to this point: the most important player in Fort Myers, at present, is not either of those three. It's the 25-year-old Miguel Sano – almost exactly one year removed from an All-Star appearance – who commands our attention most. If the Twins are going to pull off a highly improbable return to contention in the final stretch of the season, it stands to reason they're going to need Sano, back in star form and powering their lineup. But even beyond that, we all need this. Before fans at large will buy into this next wave of shiny prospects, and the hope they represent, they're gonna need to see what a finished product looks like, rather than another what-if story. Sano ranked as a top 15 prospect in the game three straight years (per BA) before graduating in 2015. He was the epitome of a franchise cornerstone before veering toward the path of a cautionary tale. The good news is he's still young, and under team control for several years. The book is not closed on Sano and the Twins by any means. But it is anyone's guess where the story goes from here. We're all watching it play out, from afar, as he taxis on the Single-A runway and watches the organization's top prospects take off. Hopefully, soon, Sano will give us one less reason to pay careful attention to Fort Myers, FL. He's hitting .328/.442/.453 in 19 games, albeit against vastly inferior competition. If Sano doesn't get bumped up soon, with a quick adaptation to the next level, then Twins fans might need to reset expectations in line with the ETAs of those emerging top prospects. I can't blame you if it's a struggle. Fort Myers is so far away, in every sense. Click here to view the article
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By wrapping up the first half with a 9-2 home stand, Minnesota undid the damage of a disastrous 1-8 road trip, but this only returned them to their lackluster watermark: six games below .500 and trailing Cleveland by more than a touchdown in the standings. While this recent run has done enough to give the front office pause about unloading everything at the deadline, hope remains a tough sell in the Twin Cities. Less so in Southwest Florida. The Miracle roster currently boasts the top three Twins prospects: teenage phenom Royce Lewis, jaw-dropping hitter Alex Kirilloff, and flamethrowing righty Brusdar Graterol. In the newly updated Baseball America Top 100 rankings, those three rank 10th, 37th, and 61st respectively. It's worth scrolling straight to the "Miracle Matters" section of our minor-league reports each day just to see how this trio performed, and they rarely seem to disappoint. On Wednesday night Kirilloff notched four hits, lifting his average to .323. He has 75 RBIs in 89 games this year between two levels. Lewis, the second-youngest hitter to take an at-bat in the Florida State League, is batting .400 through five games there. And while Graterol hasn't fared well in his first three starts with the Miracle, he is one of only three teenage pitchers in the FSL. His ability is obvious to anyone in range. Baseball America exclaims that he "has the highest ceiling of any Twins pitching prospect, projecting rotation-topping potential." These three players equip Minnesota with a more promising future pipeline than almost any other team can tout, but that "future" part is the sticking point. Twins fans have been looking ahead for eight years. Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol are all extremely young by Single-A standards, which says a lot about realistic MLB timelines. All of which brings us to this point: the most important player in Fort Myers, at present, is not either of those three. It's the 25-year-old Miguel Sano – almost exactly one year removed from an All-Star appearance – who commands our attention most. If the Twins are going to pull off a highly improbable return to contention in the final stretch of the season, it stands to reason they're going to need Sano, back in star form and powering their lineup. But even beyond that, we all need this. Before fans at large will buy into this next wave of shiny prospects, and the hope they represent, they're gonna need to see what a finished product looks like, rather than another what-if story. Sano ranked as a top 15 prospect in the game three straight years (per BA) before graduating in 2015. He was the epitome of a franchise cornerstone before veering toward the path of a cautionary tale. The good news is he's still young, and under team control for several years. The book is not closed on Sano and the Twins by any means. But it is anyone's guess where the story goes from here. We're all watching it play out, from afar, as he taxis on the Single-A runway and watches the organization's top prospects take off. Hopefully, soon, Sano will give us one less reason to pay careful attention to Fort Myers, FL. He's hitting .328/.442/.453 in 19 games, albeit against vastly inferior competition. If Sano doesn't get bumped up soon, with a quick adaptation to the next level, then Twins fans might need to reset expectations in line with the ETAs of those emerging top prospects. I can't blame you if it's a struggle. Fort Myers is so far away, in every sense.
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Yea, what I really meant was that the projection only includes players who still have prospect status, I should've said that instead of current big-leaguers. I certainly expect Romero to be leading this rotation in five years. Granite just didn't make the cut, there were five OFs above him on the list. It wouldn't shock me if he falls off the 40-man roster soon to be honest.
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The true tragedy of the 2018 season? How it's tarnishing the hopes of so many Minnesota Twins fans who've earnestly bought into the vision of this rebuild, framed around Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano as superstar cornerstones. Watching these heralded can't-miss prospects flounder as they enter what should be their primes – dragging the franchise along with them – can be dispiriting, I know. But please, don't let it jade you on the merits of young talent. Plenty more is on the way, and things do not always go so awry.In advance of this week's All-Star Game, Baseball America published a fun retrospective piece recalling some of its historical prospect rankings and write-ups for the showcase's participants. Among those who never appeared in BA's Top 100: Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez, Corey Kluber, Jose Altuve. In fact, Altuve's highest placement on the site's organizational rankings for Houston was 28th. Twenty-eighth! The 28-year-old was 2017 AL MVP and is about to appear in his sixth All-Star Game. What I'm trying to say is that great players come from all corners, and all levels of repute. But of course, those who are acclaimed and touted as they rise through the minors have much higher rates of success, and those outside the top prospect class who exceed expectations usually have at least one standout ingredient that propels them to superiority. This is a big reason we've extended our Twins Daily midseason rankings out to 40. The system is as deep as it's been in memory, with conducive ingredients and raw tools stretching to that point and beyond. Today we'll recap the full updated rankings while breaking down some trends and tidbits worth noting. MINNESOTA TWINS MIDSEASON TOP 40 PROSPECTS 2018: SUMMARY 40. Aaron Whitefield – OF 39. Jaylin Davis – OF 38. Ricky De La Torre – SS 37. Lachlan Wells – LHP 36. Aaron Slegers – RHP 35. Tyler Watson – LHP 34. DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. – OF 33. Gabriel Moya – LHP 32. Andrew Bechtold – 3B 31. Jordan Balazovic – RHP 30. John Curtiss – RHP 29. Zack Granite – OF 28. Jake Cave – OF 27. Tyler Wells – RHP 26. Griffin Jax - RHP 25. Tyler Jay – LHP 24. Felix Jorge – RHP 23. Kohl Stewart – RHP 22. Landon Leach – RHP 21. Jose Miranda – 2B 20. Luis Arraez – 2B 19. Jacob Pearson – OF 18. Ryan Jeffers – C 17. Lewin Diaz – 1B 16. Yunior Severino – 2B 15. Ben Rortvedt – C 14. Lewis Thorpe – LHP 13. Travis Blankenhorn – 3B 12. LaMonte Wade – OF 11. Blayne Enlow – RHP 10. Zack Littell - RHP 9. Wander Javier – SS 8. Akil Baddoo – OF 7. Brent Rooker – 1B 6. Trevor Larnach – OF 5. Stephen Gonsalves – LHP 4. Nick Gordon – SS 3. Brusdar Graterol – RHP 2. Alex Kirilloff – OF 1. Royce Lewis – SS BREAKDOWN BY POSITION Catcher: 2 Infield: 11 Outfield: 10 RH Pitcher: 11 LH Pitcher: 6 METHOD OF ACQUISITION Draft: Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon, Gonsalves, Larnach, Rooker, Baddoo, Enlow, Wade, Blankenhorn, Rortvedt, Jeffers, Miranda, Leach, Stewart, Jax, T. Wells, Granite, Curtiss, Balazovic, Bechtold, Keirsey, Slegers, De La Torre, Davis Trade: Littell, Pearson, Cave, Moya, Watson International Signing: Graterol, Javier, Thorpe, Diaz, Arraez, Jorge, L. Wells, Whitefield A HEALTHY PIPELINE Premier assets at the top, plenty of quality sprinkled throughout, and low-key intrigue at the back end: It might not rank as a top-three farm system in baseball, but Minnesota boasts a deep and enviable collection of minor-league talent. The beauty of this group, at present? I promise I'm knocking on wood before I type this, but... they're in really good shape, physically. Yes, there was the very unfortunate preseason shoulder injury for Wander Javier, knocking him out for the year at a crucial point of development. And there have naturally been some bumps and bruises along the way, but for the most part, players in the Twins' system have been able to stay on the field. That hasn't been entirely common lately, and is especially refreshing in contrast to the dinged up big-league club. In fact, several prospects have shown very promising signs while trying to rebound from major health tribulations. Alex Kirilloff has of course blasted back onto the scene brilliantly after Tommy John surgery cost him all of 2017. But developments on the pitching side have been even more vitalizing. Graterol had logged only 51 total frames through his first four pro seasons due to health problems, but is already at 55 innings between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers this year. Thorpe, too, has set a new career-high in innings pitched while rebuilding strength after a long layoff. Toss in Fernando Romero (who has now graduated from his prospect status, but would otherwise be near the top of this list), and you've got three absolutely critical arms that – at least so far – have returned to the fold very successfully after losing multiple seasons to injury. Many who go through such tumult never make it back successfully. And while nothing is promised, for now I'm appreciating a little good fortune on this front. FIRST CLASS Derek Falvey and Thad Levine inherited a good situation in their first year at the helm, with the first overall pick in the 2017 draft and four selections in the top 76. No one could deny they took full advantage, bolstering the system in one fell swoop. All four players taken with those picks now sit among our top 40: Royce Lewis (1), Brent Rooker (7), Blayne Enlow (11), Landon Leach (22). So do a couple others they grabbed in their first draft: Andrew Bechtold (32) and Ricky De La Torre (38). Obviously the sample is small with all these players and their futures have yet to be written, but there's plenty to like in Falvey and Levine's initial class of recruits. Their first two picks Lewis and Rooker, in particular, are looking like slam dunks. And we'll see about the second class but so far Trevor Larnach (6) and Ryan Jeffers (18) aren't looking too shabby. SPEED AT THE TOP There are some very special talents on this list, and in the top five especially, but Royce Lewis is in a class of his own. Promoted to High-A last week, about a month after his 19th birthday, he's on an even faster path than the franchise's last No. 1 overall pick, Joe Mauer, who reached the Florida State League at age 20 in his third pro season. Mauer ended up skipping Triple-A entirely on his way to debuting in the majors at age 20. It's becoming reasonable to envision a similar ascent for Lewis. In fact, as long as he can stay healthy, Lewis is a pretty good bet to become the youngest Twin to reach the big leagues since the turn of the century, beating out Mauer and Jorge Polanco who were close to 21 when they made landing. In his first full season, Lewis has flashed outstanding speed on the field, where he's 22-for-27 on steals in 77 games, and in his development, which continues to progress at an lightning-quick pace. He's currently sitting at No. 10 overall in Baseball America's live Top 100 Rankings, well ahead of all others the Twins considered taking with the first pick last June, so their decision is being roundly reaffirmed one year later. A LINGERING WEAKNESS From the positional breakdown a little further up, you can see that the system has a nice balance for the most part: 17 pitchers, 11 infielders, 10 outfielders. But the lack of depth at another position – one of the absolute most critical – sticks out like a sore thumb. There are only two catchers in the rankings, and neither is higher than 15th. Additionally, neither is expected to arrive in the majors before 2021. Outside of marginal journeymen like Bobby Wilson, the Twins currently have only Mitch Garver, whose defensive aptitude seems in question based on Paul Molitor's usage, and 31-year-old Jason Castro, who will be returning from knee surgery for his final year under contract in 2019. If there's one position that the Twins clearly need to address from outside, it's this one. I have my own ideas, but there are plenty of other routes to go. IMAGINING A BUILT-FROM-WITHIN 2023 MLB ROSTER What might a future 25-man Twins roster, assembled entirely from prospects currently in the system, look like? Subtracting current big-leaguers from the mix and taking a few liberties in terms of positional flexibility, here's a theoretical look at an internally produced lineup, bench, and pitching staff roughly five years down the line: C - Ben Rortvedt 1B - Brent Rooker 2B - Nick Gordon SS - Wander Javier 3B - Travis Blankenhorn LF - LaMonte Wade CF - Royce Lewis RF - Alex Kirilloff DH - Trevor Larnach C - Ryan Jeffers IF - Yunior Severino IF - Luis Arraez OF - Akil Baddoo OF - Jacob Pearson SP - Brusdar Graterol SP - Stephen Gonsalves SP - Zack Littell SP - Blayne Enlow SP - Felix Jorge RP - Lewis Thorpe RP - Tyler Jay RP - Kohl Stewart RP - Gabriel Moya RP - John Curtiss RP - Griffin Jax RP - Tyler Wells FURTHER READING Catch up on the latest news and developments surrounding the system's top talents by reading through Tom Froemming's exhaustive Twins Prospect PulseTrey Cabbage, who ranks somewhere just outside the Top 40, was the subject of SD Buhr's latest column from Cedar RapidsIf you need a reminder that sometimes top prospects pan out beautifully, Jose Berrios will be participating in Tuesday night's All-Star Game at age 24, and up until the contest ends you can still sign up to a win a free baseball signed by BerriosWEIGH IN! What are your thoughts on the state of the Twins system here at the 2018 All-Star break? Did we miss anyone we should've included (other than high-profile international signing Misael Urbina, who came aboard after our ranking process had begun)? Do you have major quibbles with any placements? Let us know in the comments. Click here to view the article
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2018 Minnesota Twins Midseason Top Prospect List: Recap
Nick Nelson posted an article in Minor Leagues
In advance of this week's All-Star Game, Baseball America published a fun retrospective piece recalling some of its historical prospect rankings and write-ups for the showcase's participants. Among those who never appeared in BA's Top 100: Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez, Corey Kluber, Jose Altuve. In fact, Altuve's highest placement on the site's organizational rankings for Houston was 28th. Twenty-eighth! The 28-year-old was 2017 AL MVP and is about to appear in his sixth All-Star Game. What I'm trying to say is that great players come from all corners, and all levels of repute. But of course, those who are acclaimed and touted as they rise through the minors have much higher rates of success, and those outside the top prospect class who exceed expectations usually have at least one standout ingredient that propels them to superiority. This is a big reason we've extended our Twins Daily midseason rankings out to 40. The system is as deep as it's been in memory, with conducive ingredients and raw tools stretching to that point and beyond. Today we'll recap the full updated rankings while breaking down some trends and tidbits worth noting. MINNESOTA TWINS MIDSEASON TOP 40 PROSPECTS 2018: SUMMARY 40. Aaron Whitefield – OF 39. Jaylin Davis – OF 38. Ricky De La Torre – SS 37. Lachlan Wells – LHP 36. Aaron Slegers – RHP 35. Tyler Watson – LHP 34. DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. – OF 33. Gabriel Moya – LHP 32. Andrew Bechtold – 3B 31. Jordan Balazovic – RHP 30. John Curtiss – RHP 29. Zack Granite – OF 28. Jake Cave – OF 27. Tyler Wells – RHP 26. Griffin Jax - RHP 25. Tyler Jay – LHP 24. Felix Jorge – RHP 23. Kohl Stewart – RHP 22. Landon Leach – RHP 21. Jose Miranda – 2B 20. Luis Arraez – 2B 19. Jacob Pearson – OF 18. Ryan Jeffers – C 17. Lewin Diaz – 1B 16. Yunior Severino – 2B 15. Ben Rortvedt – C 14. Lewis Thorpe – LHP 13. Travis Blankenhorn – 3B 12. LaMonte Wade – OF 11. Blayne Enlow – RHP 10. Zack Littell - RHP 9. Wander Javier – SS 8. Akil Baddoo – OF 7. Brent Rooker – 1B 6. Trevor Larnach – OF 5. Stephen Gonsalves – LHP 4. Nick Gordon – SS 3. Brusdar Graterol – RHP 2. Alex Kirilloff – OF 1. Royce Lewis – SS BREAKDOWN BY POSITION Catcher: 2 Infield: 11 Outfield: 10 RH Pitcher: 11 LH Pitcher: 6 METHOD OF ACQUISITION Draft: Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon, Gonsalves, Larnach, Rooker, Baddoo, Enlow, Wade, Blankenhorn, Rortvedt, Jeffers, Miranda, Leach, Stewart, Jax, T. Wells, Granite, Curtiss, Balazovic, Bechtold, Keirsey, Slegers, De La Torre, Davis Trade: Littell, Pearson, Cave, Moya, Watson International Signing: Graterol, Javier, Thorpe, Diaz, Arraez, Jorge, L. Wells, Whitefield A HEALTHY PIPELINE Premier assets at the top, plenty of quality sprinkled throughout, and low-key intrigue at the back end: It might not rank as a top-three farm system in baseball, but Minnesota boasts a deep and enviable collection of minor-league talent. The beauty of this group, at present? I promise I'm knocking on wood before I type this, but... they're in really good shape, physically. Yes, there was the very unfortunate preseason shoulder injury for Wander Javier, knocking him out for the year at a crucial point of development. And there have naturally been some bumps and bruises along the way, but for the most part, players in the Twins' system have been able to stay on the field. That hasn't been entirely common lately, and is especially refreshing in contrast to the dinged up big-league club. In fact, several prospects have shown very promising signs while trying to rebound from major health tribulations. Alex Kirilloff has of course blasted back onto the scene brilliantly after Tommy John surgery cost him all of 2017. But developments on the pitching side have been even more vitalizing. Graterol had logged only 51 total frames through his first four pro seasons due to health problems, but is already at 55 innings between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers this year. Thorpe, too, has set a new career-high in innings pitched while rebuilding strength after a long layoff. Toss in Fernando Romero (who has now graduated from his prospect status, but would otherwise be near the top of this list), and you've got three absolutely critical arms that – at least so far – have returned to the fold very successfully after losing multiple seasons to injury. Many who go through such tumult never make it back successfully. And while nothing is promised, for now I'm appreciating a little good fortune on this front. FIRST CLASS Derek Falvey and Thad Levine inherited a good situation in their first year at the helm, with the first overall pick in the 2017 draft and four selections in the top 76. No one could deny they took full advantage, bolstering the system in one fell swoop. All four players taken with those picks now sit among our top 40: Royce Lewis (1), Brent Rooker (7), Blayne Enlow (11), Landon Leach (22). So do a couple others they grabbed in their first draft: Andrew Bechtold (32) and Ricky De La Torre (38). Obviously the sample is small with all these players and their futures have yet to be written, but there's plenty to like in Falvey and Levine's initial class of recruits. Their first two picks Lewis and Rooker, in particular, are looking like slam dunks. And we'll see about the second class but so far Trevor Larnach (6) and Ryan Jeffers (18) aren't looking too shabby. SPEED AT THE TOP There are some very special talents on this list, and in the top five especially, but Royce Lewis is in a class of his own. Promoted to High-A last week, about a month after his 19th birthday, he's on an even faster path than the franchise's last No. 1 overall pick, Joe Mauer, who reached the Florida State League at age 20 in his third pro season. Mauer ended up skipping Triple-A entirely on his way to debuting in the majors at age 20. It's becoming reasonable to envision a similar ascent for Lewis. In fact, as long as he can stay healthy, Lewis is a pretty good bet to become the youngest Twin to reach the big leagues since the turn of the century, beating out Mauer and Jorge Polanco who were close to 21 when they made landing. In his first full season, Lewis has flashed outstanding speed on the field, where he's 22-for-27 on steals in 77 games, and in his development, which continues to progress at an lightning-quick pace. He's currently sitting at No. 10 overall in Baseball America's live Top 100 Rankings, well ahead of all others the Twins considered taking with the first pick last June, so their decision is being roundly reaffirmed one year later. A LINGERING WEAKNESS From the positional breakdown a little further up, you can see that the system has a nice balance for the most part: 17 pitchers, 11 infielders, 10 outfielders. But the lack of depth at another position – one of the absolute most critical – sticks out like a sore thumb. There are only two catchers in the rankings, and neither is higher than 15th. Additionally, neither is expected to arrive in the majors before 2021. Outside of marginal journeymen like Bobby Wilson, the Twins currently have only Mitch Garver, whose defensive aptitude seems in question based on Paul Molitor's usage, and 31-year-old Jason Castro, who will be returning from knee surgery for his final year under contract in 2019. If there's one position that the Twins clearly need to address from outside, it's this one. I have my own ideas, but there are plenty of other routes to go. IMAGINING A BUILT-FROM-WITHIN 2023 MLB ROSTER What might a future 25-man Twins roster, assembled entirely from prospects currently in the system, look like? Subtracting current big-leaguers from the mix and taking a few liberties in terms of positional flexibility, here's a theoretical look at an internally produced lineup, bench, and pitching staff roughly five years down the line: C - Ben Rortvedt 1B - Brent Rooker 2B - Nick Gordon SS - Wander Javier 3B - Travis Blankenhorn LF - LaMonte Wade CF - Royce Lewis RF - Alex Kirilloff DH - Trevor Larnach C - Ryan Jeffers IF - Yunior Severino IF - Luis Arraez OF - Akil Baddoo OF - Jacob Pearson SP - Brusdar Graterol SP - Stephen Gonsalves SP - Zack Littell SP - Blayne Enlow SP - Felix Jorge RP - Lewis Thorpe RP - Tyler Jay RP - Kohl Stewart RP - Gabriel Moya RP - John Curtiss RP - Griffin Jax RP - Tyler Wells FURTHER READING Catch up on the latest news and developments surrounding the system's top talents by reading through Tom Froemming's exhaustive Twins Prospect Pulse Trey Cabbage, who ranks somewhere just outside the Top 40, was the subject of SD Buhr's latest column from Cedar Rapids If you need a reminder that sometimes top prospects pan out beautifully, Jose Berrios will be participating in Tuesday night's All-Star Game at age 24, and up until the contest ends you can still sign up to a win a free baseball signed by Berrios WEIGH IN! What are your thoughts on the state of the Twins system here at the 2018 All-Star break? Did we miss anyone we should've included (other than high-profile international signing Misael Urbina, who came aboard after our ranking process had begun)? Do you have major quibbles with any placements? Let us know in the comments.- 25 comments
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A disappointing first half ended on a high note, with Sunday's walk-off grand slam capping a 9-2 home stand to propel Minnesota into the All-Star break with some serious good vibes. In the wake of a crushing 1-8 road trip, the Twins did what they needed to do, taking all three series at Target Field to move back within six games of .500 and eight games of the division lead. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/9 through Sun, 7/15 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 44-50) Run Differential Last Week: -2 (Overall: -23) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (7.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS The offense was cooking this week, producing 48 runs in seven games. The unit's fine work included strong showings against two of the American League's hottest starters; Minnesota chased All-Star Blake Snell (4-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his previous four starts) after three innings on Thursday, and jumped all over Nathan Eovaldi (2-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his previous three starts) for eight runs on Friday. Contributions came from all corners. Jake Cave continued to entrench himself with his best week as a big-leaguer, starting five of the Twins' seven games and going 8-for-17 (.471) with two doubles, two triples and a pair of runs batted in. It'd be nice to see a little more discipline – he drew one walk last week and has only four in 81 plate appearances, to go along with 23 strikeouts – but at least he's connecting and driving the ball. Cave is looking like a hell of a find by the front office. It's that time of year: Brian Dozier is finding his zone. The now-customary slow start for Dozier was lengthier and uglier than usual this time around, but as usual, he's finding his stroke here around the All-Star break. Last week he went 9-for-28 with three home runs and 10 RBIs, punctuating his first half with a walk-off grand slam. He also showed a better eye at the plate, drawing five walks (one intentional) after posting a 9-to-0 K/BB ratio the previous week. Speaking of reviving patience, Joe Mauer drew twice as many walks from Friday through Sunday (4) as he had in 24 previous games since coming off the disabled list. Coupled with his generally exceptional output during the week (11-for-30 with a homer and seven RBIs), it's a further sign Mauer is starting to see the ball better – a much-needed development. Also chipping in on offense: Eddie Rosario, who had at least one hit in all seven games and now ranks 8th in the AL with a .311 average. Robbie Grossman who hasn't seen his name pop up in the "Highlights" section often but earned it this week by going 8-for-18 (.444) with three doubles and three walks. Heck, even Bobby Wilson joined the fun, following up his first multi-hit game of the season last Saturday with two more in his four starts. His average is all the way up to .177! On the pitching side, Kyle Gibson stayed hot with another brilliant performance on Thursday against Tampa. The righty struck out nine and walked none over eight innings of one-run ball, inducing 16 swinging strikes after setting a career-high with 20 in his previous turn against Baltimore. Gibson has completed seven or more innings six times in his past nine starts; he did so nine times in 2016 and 2017 combined. Right now, Gibby is throwing as well as he has at any point in his career. The timing is interesting as the trade deadline approaches, with Minnesota in sell mode (?) and plenty of contenders seeking impact arms. We'll see what happens. LOWLIGHTS Mitch Garver continued to come up on the short end of the catching timeshare, making three starts to Wilson's four, and for once he was actually out-hit by his counterpart. Garver actually failed to pick up a single knock in 17 plate appearances. That sort of thing is going to happen – his .375 average in the previous 20 games, buoyed by a .432 BABIP, wasn't going to stay propped up forever – but what's nice to see is Garver taking solid ABs and still managing to get himself on base during a hitting slump, as he drew four walks against four strikeouts. He also laid down a key two-strike bunt on Sunday to set up Dozier's walk-off. Even during a down stretch, it's nice to see Garver get playing time, and it's easy to see the value in it. That's not true of Matt Belisle, who has now become a primary source of frustration with this club. When the Twins added the veteran right-hander back in early June, seeking an infusion of leadership to right their wayward ship, it appeared to be a harmless enough move. He hadn't been good with Cleveland but he was to be the last option in the Minnesota bullpen, a mop-up man whose arm they didn't need to worry about. How much damage could he do? Well, he's done his share. After a hideous outing on Saturday in which he coughed up five runs in one frame, pushing the game out of reach and opening the door for an ill-equipped Willians Astudillo to take the mound in the ninth, Belisle has now surrendered 13 earned runs on 23 hits in 12 1/3 innings for Minnesota. He hasn't recorded six outs in an appearance. If he's still on the roster coming out of the break, the Twins are doing it wrong. TRENDING STORYLINE On Sunday, Ervin Santana made his first rehab start at Triple-A, stretching out to 5 2/3 innings and 86 pitches. The results weren't great – he gave up a pair of homers and has allowed five total in six starts in the minors. However, his arm strength should be sufficiently built up to rejoin the big-league club and I don't suspect the Twins will waste any time. He'll likely be reinserted into the rotation immediately after the break for two main reasons: 1) they're having a hard time finding answers for that fifth rotation spot, as Aaron Slegers was shelled on Tuesday and Fernando Romero couldn't get through five innings on Sunday, and 2) they have precious little time to showcase Santana as a deadline chip. Santana may quietly be one of Minnesota's best assets to dangle. He was among the AL's top pitchers last year and started a playoff game. He's an experienced vet with an excellent recent track record. His contract, containing a $14 million team option for 2019, offers convenient flexibility. And if other teams are convinced he's beyond his finger issues, they might actually value the fact that he has hardly pitched all year, as it could improve his odds of staying strong through September and October. Of course, convincing others that Erv is back to 100% will be tough as time runs short. Reports on Santana during his rehab stint have been as mixed as his results. He is lined up to start the first game of the second half on regular rest, and if the Twins plug him in at Kansas City on Friday he'd be able to get in three turns before the July 31st deadline. Would a trio of 2017-caliber efforts be enough to restore Santana's status and generate some competition for his services? That should certainly be the hope as we look ahead to the rest of July. DOWN ON THE FARM At long last, Royce Lewis received his much-deserved promotion to Fort Myers. In moving up from Low-A to High-A, Lewis becomes one of the youngest players in the Florida State League, but that didn't stop him from making a fast impression with four hits in his second game on Sunday. Lewis was, of course, the consensus No. 1 prospect in our recently wrapped midseason top 40 rankings. While the shortstop was bursting onto the FSL scene Sunday, Alex Kirilloff wasn't in the same lineup, because he was starting for Team USA in the Futures Game. He started in right and batted sixth, notching singles in both his at-bats before coming out. Also participating in the showcase was Lewis Thorpe, who didn't fare so well – he came in to pitch the fourth but couldn't complete it as he yielded four runs three hits, including a single to Kirilloff and two home runs, while recording two outs (both on K's). LOOKING AHEAD On Tuesday, Jose Berrios will represent the Twins at the 2018 All-Star Game. Then, following a couple days off, the second half will kick off with a series in Kansas City. Minnesota needs to make hay against the last-place Royals because after that the path steepens, with their road trip bringing them through Toronto and Boston before returning home to face Cleveland. The probable starters below are very much subject to change as both the Twins and Royals may reshuffle their rotations over the break. TUESDAY, 7/17: MLB ALL-STAR GAME – Go Berrios! FRIDAY, 7/20: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Danny Duffy SATURDAY, 7/21: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Jake Junis SUNDAY, 7/22: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Brad Keller Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 88 | MIN 3, KC 1: Minnesota’s All-Star ShinesGame 89 | KC 9, MIN 4: Slegers Slayed by RoyalsGame 90 | MIN 8, KC 5: Twins Recover from Rough StartGame 91 | MIN 5, TB 1: Who’s the Snub?Game 92 | MIN 11, TB 8: Twins Get a Scare on Friday the 13th, Prevail Over Pesky RaysGame 93 | TB 19, MIN 6: This Never HappenedGame 94 | MIN 11, TB 7: Dozier Grand Slam Ends Wild Game, First HalfMore on Twins Daily In the latest roundtable, a panel of Twins Daily writers weighed in with their choices for Minnesota's biggest second-half performerAndrew Thares took a look at potential suitors for Brian Dozier as the deadline approachesI theorized about how a trade for Miami's All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto might take shapeReporting from Cedar Rapids, SD Buhr wrote of the leadership shown by infielder Jordan Gore and pitcher Randy Dobnak for the Kernels Click here to view the article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/9 through Sun, 7/15 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 44-50) Run Differential Last Week: -2 (Overall: -23) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (7.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS The offense was cooking this week, producing 48 runs in seven games. The unit's fine work included strong showings against two of the American League's hottest starters; Minnesota chased All-Star Blake Snell (4-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his previous four starts) after three innings on Thursday, and jumped all over Nathan Eovaldi (2-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his previous three starts) for eight runs on Friday. Contributions came from all corners. Jake Cave continued to entrench himself with his best week as a big-leaguer, starting five of the Twins' seven games and going 8-for-17 (.471) with two doubles, two triples and a pair of runs batted in. It'd be nice to see a little more discipline – he drew one walk last week and has only four in 81 plate appearances, to go along with 23 strikeouts – but at least he's connecting and driving the ball. Cave is looking like a hell of a find by the front office. It's that time of year: Brian Dozier is finding his zone. The now-customary slow start for Dozier was lengthier and uglier than usual this time around, but as usual, he's finding his stroke here around the All-Star break. Last week he went 9-for-28 with three home runs and 10 RBIs, punctuating his first half with a walk-off grand slam. He also showed a better eye at the plate, drawing five walks (one intentional) after posting a 9-to-0 K/BB ratio the previous week. Speaking of reviving patience, Joe Mauer drew twice as many walks from Friday through Sunday (4) as he had in 24 previous games since coming off the disabled list. Coupled with his generally exceptional output during the week (11-for-30 with a homer and seven RBIs), it's a further sign Mauer is starting to see the ball better – a much-needed development. Also chipping in on offense: Eddie Rosario, who had at least one hit in all seven games and now ranks 8th in the AL with a .311 average. Robbie Grossman who hasn't seen his name pop up in the "Highlights" section often but earned it this week by going 8-for-18 (.444) with three doubles and three walks. Heck, even Bobby Wilson joined the fun, following up his first multi-hit game of the season last Saturday with two more in his four starts. His average is all the way up to .177! On the pitching side, Kyle Gibson stayed hot with another brilliant performance on Thursday against Tampa. The righty struck out nine and walked none over eight innings of one-run ball, inducing 16 swinging strikes after setting a career-high with 20 in his previous turn against Baltimore. Gibson has completed seven or more innings six times in his past nine starts; he did so nine times in 2016 and 2017 combined. Right now, Gibby is throwing as well as he has at any point in his career. The timing is interesting as the trade deadline approaches, with Minnesota in sell mode (?) and plenty of contenders seeking impact arms. We'll see what happens. LOWLIGHTS Mitch Garver continued to come up on the short end of the catching timeshare, making three starts to Wilson's four, and for once he was actually out-hit by his counterpart. Garver actually failed to pick up a single knock in 17 plate appearances. That sort of thing is going to happen – his .375 average in the previous 20 games, buoyed by a .432 BABIP, wasn't going to stay propped up forever – but what's nice to see is Garver taking solid ABs and still managing to get himself on base during a hitting slump, as he drew four walks against four strikeouts. He also laid down a key two-strike bunt on Sunday to set up Dozier's walk-off. Even during a down stretch, it's nice to see Garver get playing time, and it's easy to see the value in it. That's not true of Matt Belisle, who has now become a primary source of frustration with this club. When the Twins added the veteran right-hander back in early June, seeking an infusion of leadership to right their wayward ship, it appeared to be a harmless enough move. He hadn't been good with Cleveland but he was to be the last option in the Minnesota bullpen, a mop-up man whose arm they didn't need to worry about. How much damage could he do? Well, he's done his share. After a hideous outing on Saturday in which he coughed up five runs in one frame, pushing the game out of reach and opening the door for an ill-equipped Willians Astudillo to take the mound in the ninth, Belisle has now surrendered 13 earned runs on 23 hits in 12 1/3 innings for Minnesota. He hasn't recorded six outs in an appearance. If he's still on the roster coming out of the break, the Twins are doing it wrong. TRENDING STORYLINE On Sunday, Ervin Santana made his first rehab start at Triple-A, stretching out to 5 2/3 innings and 86 pitches. The results weren't great – he gave up a pair of homers and has allowed five total in six starts in the minors. However, his arm strength should be sufficiently built up to rejoin the big-league club and I don't suspect the Twins will waste any time. He'll likely be reinserted into the rotation immediately after the break for two main reasons: 1) they're having a hard time finding answers for that fifth rotation spot, as Aaron Slegers was shelled on Tuesday and Fernando Romero couldn't get through five innings on Sunday, and 2) they have precious little time to showcase Santana as a deadline chip. Santana may quietly be one of Minnesota's best assets to dangle. He was among the AL's top pitchers last year and started a playoff game. He's an experienced vet with an excellent recent track record. His contract, containing a $14 million team option for 2019, offers convenient flexibility. And if other teams are convinced he's beyond his finger issues, they might actually value the fact that he has hardly pitched all year, as it could improve his odds of staying strong through September and October. Of course, convincing others that Erv is back to 100% will be tough as time runs short. Reports on Santana during his rehab stint have been as mixed as his results. He is lined up to start the first game of the second half on regular rest, and if the Twins plug him in at Kansas City on Friday he'd be able to get in three turns before the July 31st deadline. Would a trio of 2017-caliber efforts be enough to restore Santana's status and generate some competition for his services? That should certainly be the hope as we look ahead to the rest of July. DOWN ON THE FARM At long last, Royce Lewis received his much-deserved promotion to Fort Myers. In moving up from Low-A to High-A, Lewis becomes one of the youngest players in the Florida State League, but that didn't stop him from making a fast impression with four hits in his second game on Sunday. Lewis was, of course, the consensus No. 1 prospect in our recently wrapped midseason top 40 rankings. While the shortstop was bursting onto the FSL scene Sunday, Alex Kirilloff wasn't in the same lineup, because he was starting for Team USA in the Futures Game. He started in right and batted sixth, notching singles in both his at-bats before coming out. Also participating in the showcase was Lewis Thorpe, who didn't fare so well – he came in to pitch the fourth but couldn't complete it as he yielded four runs three hits, including a single to Kirilloff and two home runs, while recording two outs (both on K's). LOOKING AHEAD On Tuesday, Jose Berrios will represent the Twins at the 2018 All-Star Game. Then, following a couple days off, the second half will kick off with a series in Kansas City. Minnesota needs to make hay against the last-place Royals because after that the path steepens, with their road trip bringing them through Toronto and Boston before returning home to face Cleveland. The probable starters below are very much subject to change as both the Twins and Royals may reshuffle their rotations over the break. TUESDAY, 7/17: MLB ALL-STAR GAME – Go Berrios! FRIDAY, 7/20: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Danny Duffy SATURDAY, 7/21: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Jake Junis SUNDAY, 7/22: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Brad Keller Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 88 | MIN 3, KC 1: Minnesota’s All-Star Shines Game 89 | KC 9, MIN 4: Slegers Slayed by Royals Game 90 | MIN 8, KC 5: Twins Recover from Rough Start Game 91 | MIN 5, TB 1: Who’s the Snub? Game 92 | MIN 11, TB 8: Twins Get a Scare on Friday the 13th, Prevail Over Pesky Rays Game 93 | TB 19, MIN 6: This Never Happened Game 94 | MIN 11, TB 7: Dozier Grand Slam Ends Wild Game, First Half More on Twins Daily In the latest roundtable, a panel of Twins Daily writers weighed in with their choices for Minnesota's biggest second-half performer Andrew Thares took a look at potential suitors for Brian Dozier as the deadline approaches I theorized about how a trade for Miami's All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto might take shape Reporting from Cedar Rapids, SD Buhr wrote of the leadership shown by infielder Jordan Gore and pitcher Randy Dobnak for the Kernels
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