Nick Nelson

This is good context, and helps substantiate how consistent and excellent Cleveland's rotation has been. But I'll add this nugget: Cleveland Starters by FIP: Clevinger - 2.95 Bauer - 3.17 Carrasco - 3.32 Kluber - 3.95 Tomlin - 9.71 Minnesota Starters by FIP: Romero - 2.82 Gibson - 3.11 Berrios - 3.56 Lynn - 5.46 Odorizzi - 5.55 Not the hugest disparity, and the Twins still have Erv, Gonsalves and May in the offing. The Indians don't really have those kinds of reinforcements on deck. Personally I have very little confidence Salazar is going to return with any kind of effectiveness for Cleveland this summer; his shoulder is messed up.

He was also playing through the knee injury for a couple weeks before going on the DL, which no doubt affected his production.

You may be right, but accounting for the Mariners and Blue Jays as well, I just don't like the Central's chances of nabbing a WC slot. And the more important thing is that, in order to have hopes of playing in the ALDS, the Twins probably need to win the division regardless. The thought of another play-in game in the Bronx sounds nightmarish.

We're six weeks into the season and we still don't know what to make of the Minnesota Twins, who have shown the ability to cruise when it all clicks and spiral when things go awry. We also don't know what to make of the Cleveland Indians, who have failed to take advantage of Minnesota's slump and build any kind of comfortable lead in the AL Central. What we can say, with relative confidence, is that only one one of these teams is going to make the postseason.The Yankees springboarded off their four-game sweep of the Twins – they've won 10 of 11 games since, and that only ties them with Mookie Betts and the dazzling Red Sox for first place. It'd be a staggering upset if the loser in that AL East slugfest didn't procure a wild-card berth. Toronto is even looking like a factor early on. In the West, the Astros and Angels are living up to their billings. Both are currently on track for around 100 wins, and there's not much reason to view the success of either club as a mirage (though the Halos could become vulnerable if MIke Trout or Shohei Ohtani were to go down). Seattle looms as a credible threat there as well. Meanwhile, Cleveland leads the Central by a game with a ho-hum 18-18 record. While the Twins have generated some doubt early on, they have also had a number of key contributors – Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Ervin Santana, Jorge Polanco, and now Jason Castro – miss time. The Indians have mostly had their stalwarts on the field, minus Andrew Miller who's been sidelined by a hamstring injury. Fans in Cleveland are probably fretting more right now than those in Minny, and reasonably so. The Twins have shown their warts, to be sure, but the pervasive ineptitude that haunted them for two weeks doesn't seem reflective of any crippling long-term weakness. The offense and pitching staff both look capable, and have shown it enough to inspire some confidence. As for the Indians? Their offense has scuffled even with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor hitting well. Jason Kipnis, who hasn't been a significantly above-average hitter since 2015, sports an OPS 90 points lower than Logan Morrison's. Edwin Encarnacion (.696 OPS) will probably come around, but then again, he is easily their oldest regular, at 35. In the rotation, it's true Danny Salazar has been amiss, but the Indians might need to grow accustomed to that reality. And besides, his replacement Mike Clevinger has given as much (2.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) as you could hope to get from Salazar. In the bullpen, even Miller's absence can't come close to excusing the woes that have haunted Cleveland recently. In terms of direct points of comparison, the Twins and Indians appear quite evenly matched. They played neck-and-neck during their two games in Puerto Rico, with the second stretching for 16 innings before a victor emerged. Just as Minnesota suffered a demoralizing sweep at Yankee Stadium, so did Cleveland this past weekend, getting walked off twice in three days. And while the Twins have pulled themselves out of a dreadful early-season slump, the Indians are now trying to steer clear of a lesser one – Wednesday's victory over Milwaukee was just their fourth in 12 games. Of course, slumps happen. I'm not going to cast judgment or draw conclusions in the middle of one for Cleveland, especially after the Twins just showed us how quickly things can turn around. But whereas this upstart Minnesota club was expected to have its flaws, setbacks and tribulations – especially early – the defending Central champs were supposed to run like a well-oiled machine. While the other bona fide AL contenders have all solidified their top-tier statuses, Cleveland sits with the league's seventh-best record as the season's quarter-point approaches. They're still the division favorites but the Indians appear far less formidable than many feared. If winning the Central is Minnesota's only path to the postseason, at least it looks eminently surmountable. This is shaping up be a fun and competitive race that twists and turns throughout the summer. Both teams will have the advantage of copious matchups against the White Sox, Royals and Tigers, so it may very well come down to who takes care of business. The Twins did so in Chicago over the weekend, and will get their first looks at Kansas City and Detroit later this month. The four-game set between Minnesota and Cleveland coming up in three weeks is already one worth circling on the calendar. Click here to view the article

Up is down. Black is white. And Twins pitchers are striking everyone out. We've come a long way since the days of 'pitch to contact.' A perfect storm of circumstances has led to a stunning transformation for a Minnesota staff that throughout recent history has reliably – VERY reliably – been among the game's most contact-heavy.With 31 games in the books, Twins pitchers are averaging 9.4 K/9 and striking out 23.5% of batters faced. Such numbers are unheard of around these parts. Now, first, a little context: as you're probably aware, swings and misses are off the charts throughout baseball. April marked the first month in MLB history with more strikeouts than hits. In 2006, the last time Minnesota boasted a true power pitching staff, the team's 7.3 K/9 rate and 19.2 K% both ranked second in the majors. Currently those marks would both be in the bottom five. Even when you account for the seismic shift taking place across the game, though, the Twins' relative standing has improved to a ridiculous degree. Compare their present rankings in K/9, K% and swinging strike rate to the past three seasons: Download attachment: Kgraph.JPG What's driving this spike in strikeouts? Well, in part, it is by the design of Minnesota's new front office. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made power arms a clear emphasis when reshaping the bullpen this offseason; Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke are all unsurprisingly averaging more than a strikeout per inning. Each have been among Paul Molitor's most oft-used options, as has Ryan Pressly who is blowing people away. That helps. But the real story here is in the rotation, suddenly brimming with strikeout artists. How'd we get here? Through a combination of several factors. In some ways, this is just a reflection of the state of the game. Lance Lynn is the most conspicuous example. Despite his overall struggles, the veteran has been generating plenty of whiffs with an 11.4% swinging strike rate that would've led all Twins starters in any of the past five years. Lynn has never posted a whiff rate of even 10% in the past. Meanwhile, Jake Odorizzi has been doing his normal thing, with a 21.9% K-rate and 10.9% swinging strikes — both very much in line with his career baselines but well above the local norm. So here too, additions from the front office have played role. But there's also this: Kyle Gibson has harnessed the improvements he made in the latter half of 2017 and is now a bat-missing machine. Jose Berrios continues to take steps forward in his development. And of course, Fernando Romero has now arrived with some of the best stuff we've seen from any Twins pitcher in years. Add it all up, and you've got a staff that can actually strike fear into opposing lineups, retiring hitters without constantly relying on the defense to make plays (a luxury that will prove critical if Byron Buxton misses much more time this summer). For those of us who've been watching Twins players consistently induce contact over the past decade-plus, it's a jarring change, but a very welcome one. Click here to view the article

It's not just you -- 24 of his 26 hits have been singles. But I wouldn't be concerned. He's so young. The strength and power will come.

It was a week that saw more low points, including a couple of painful home losses to the Blue Jays and an even more painful walk-off loss to the White Sox. But the Twins finished with three straight wins and finally seem to be back on track. Oh, and after all that turmoil, they're still only two games out of first place in the division. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/30 through Sun, 5/6 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 13-17) Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: -28) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (2.0 GB) Programming note: I co-hosted the Gleeman & The Geek podcast with Aaron this week while our guy John was out of town. Give it a listen if you so please! We discussed many of the topics you'll read about here. HIGHLIGHTS It's safe to say Eduardo Escobar wasn't feeling any sense of joy upon learning in March that his friend and teammate Jorge Polanco had tested positive for PEDs and been hit with an 80-game suspension. But there's no denying the situation stood to directly benefit Escobar, who was slated for sporadic utilityman duty before Polanco's ban. Instead, the 29-year-old has been a staple in the lineup, and is taking advantage of his opportunity while looking ahead to his first date with free agency. Escobar was the everyday shortstop for most of April, but has shifted to third lately with Miguel Sano on the disabled list. Regardless of his placement in the field, Escobar's bat has consistently delivered; he posted a .926 OPS in April and is off to a red-hot start in May, where he's 8-for-23 with two home runs and four doubles in his first six games. Both those homers came on Friday night, when he carried the Twins offense with a magnificent performance. LOOKING AHEAD It's going to be an interesting week. The Twins first head to St. Louis for a quick interleague series – "Welcome to the big leagues, Romero! Now grab a bat" – then out west for a four-game set against the Angels. Like that ill-fated four-gamer in the Bronx, this matchup will pit the Twins against a team they figure to be potentially racing against for a wild-card berth It's an opportunity to show they can stack up against the league's top-tier squads. We'll see Shohei Ohtani on the mound Saturday, and I'm guessing we'll probably see him at the plate sometime as well. MONDAY, 5/7: TWINS @ CARDINALS – RHP Fernando Romero v. RHP John Gant TUESDAY, 5/8: TWINS @ CARDINALS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Carlos Martinez THURSDAY, 5/10: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Garrett Richards FRIDAY, 5/11: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Lance Lynn v. LHP Tyler Skaggs SATURDAY, 5/12: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Shohei Ohtani SUNDAY, 5/13: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Fernando Romero v. LHP Andrew Heaney Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 24 | TOR 7, MIN 5: Twins Can't Recover From Another Poor Start by LynnGame 25 | TOR 7, MIN 4: WHAT IS HAPPENING!?!?!?Game 26 | MIN 4, TOR 0: Fernandomania!Game 27 | CHW 6, MIN 5: Twins Blow 5-1 LeadGame 28 | MIN 6, CHW 4: Twins Slug Four Homers in VictoryGame 29 | MIN 8, CHW 4: Rosario Drives in FiveGame 30 | MIN 5, CHW 3: Rosario Lifts Twins to Third Straight Victory Click here to view the article

The Twins are in bad shape right now. They've lost 11 of their last 12 games and their postseason odds have taken a nosedive. Given the various concerning issues cropping up, it might feel difficult to envision a turnaround that puts this team back on a contending track. But doing so would hardly be unprecedented. If you're seeking a concrete basis upon which to stake your hopes, all you need to do is turn the clock back a dozen years.This year's Twins finished April with a 9-15 record, which puts the team on pace for more than 100 losses. Of course, as you may recall, Minnesota also finished with a 9-15 April record in 2006. That team eventually kicked things into gear around midsummer, and wound up taking the division with 96 wins, most in modern Twins history. Can this year's iteration orchestrate a similar reversal? Let's take a look at some of the ingredients that fed the 2006 club's rise from the ashes, and see where the current Twins might be able to strike a similar note. An Ace Atop the Rotation Then: Johan Santana picked up his second Cy Young award with a phenomenal season, winning 19 games with a 2.77 ERA while leading the league in strikeouts. He was in his absolute prime. The Twins went 22-12 in his starts, including 20-3 from June through September while mounting their charge. Now: Jose Berrios is the team's best hope for anything resembling a Johan to lead the rotation. He certainly looked the part in his first few starts but has obviously taken a major downturn in the past couple. I remain confident that the talented young righty will settle in at a level that, while solidly below 2004 Santana, is still as good as than anything the Twins have featured since Santana left town. Of course, there's another Santana set to join the current rotation within the next month. And while Erv is certainly no Johan, he does give the Twins another legit No. 1/2 type if he's throwing the way he has over the past two years. Rookie Sensation Enters the Starting Fold Then: After spending his first six weeks in the bullpen, Francisco Liriano joined the rotation in mid-May. From then until the end of July, he put together about as dominant a stretch as you'll see from a starting pitcher, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 105-to-28 K/BB ratio over 93 innings in 14 starts. We know how the rest of the story goes: he felt elbow discomfort in his first start of August, landed on the DL, came back for one try in September and went down with a torn UCL. But during that brilliant midsummer stretch Liriano was a fortune-altering force, with an infectious electricity that seemed to energize the team. Now: Can Fernando Romero make a similar impact? It's certainly not unthinkable. The hard-throwing right-hander is set to make his Twins debut on Wednesday and could stick if he looks good. I've heard from multiple longtime followers of the Twins system who've suggested Romero has the best stuff they've seen from a Twins prospect since Liriano. We ranked him as our No. 1 Twins prospect last year and No. 2 this year (only unseated to the arrival of teen phenom Royce Lewis). Rochester pitching coach Stan Cliburn calls Romero's a "golden arm." We'll see if it can give Minnesota's rotation the Midas touch. High-Octane Bullpen Then: Peak Joe Nathan as closer. Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain as quality setup men. Dennys Reyes as a supremely effective southpaw specialist. Pat Neshek as the critical midseason reinforcement. That was a hell of a unit – one that went 72-1 when taking a lead into the eighth inning. Now: This area of comparison feels like a major stretch based on what we've seen. Fernando Rodney has already blown more saves in April (3) than Nathan did in all of 2006 (2), and plenty of others are struggling. BUT... Rodney was also really bad in April last year, before turning it on with a – dare I say? – Nathanesque performance in the final five months. Granted, he's now 41 and the past does not predict the future. But on the whole, you can make a case this bullpen has the ability to stack up against that '06 corps if more guys start playing to their ability. Especially if they can get a Neshek-like infusion sometime this summer. Maybe Luke Bard or Tyler Jay? This current unit is averaging 9.3 K/9. It's the first time since 2006 (when Twins relievers led the league in K/9 rate) that Minnesota has legitimately boasted a power pen. MVP-Caliber Slugger Then: On the offensive side, Justin Morneau was a driving force in the emergence of the 2006 Twins. He slashed .352/.403/.598 with 24 home runs and 94 RBI over the final four months to power the lineup and earning himself an MVP award. Now: Miguel Sano is capable of being a similarly fearsome force at the heart of the order, and we've seen it in flashes, but he has yet to put it all together the way Morneau did in '06. Maybe it's still coming? The contextual similarities are hard to ignore. Morneau entered that campaign coming off a disappointing season, facing questions about whether he'd ever reach his lofty potential. He hit .208/.274/.416 in April before starting to get it going in May (when he turned 25) and fully exploding from June onward. This year, Sano hit .213/.289/.450 in April. He's currently sidelined by a hamstring injury but should be back next week. He turns 25 this month. Excellence Up the Middle Then: Morneau was a big factor as a top-tier slugging first baseman, but that team's strength up the middle – Joe Mauer at catcher, Luis Castillo at second, Jason Bartlett (eventually) at short, and Torii Hunter in center – was also instrumental. That quartet combined for 13.4 WAR, helping to make up for some weaknesses elsewhere. Now: This current group is capable of approximating that kind of impact. Rather than Mauer and Hunter as the stars, with Castillo and Bartlett as quality role players, it's Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton as the stars with Eduardo Escobar/Jorge Polanco and Jason Castro/Mitch Garver lending solid support. Last year Dozier, Buxton, Escobar and Castro combined for 11.7 WAR. Not too far off. SOME CLOSING THOUGHTS... I've got to admit, I found this exercise reassuring. These parallels are fairly compelling to me. Yes, this year's Twins have their troubles, but man, so did that '06 squad in the early going. Remember the Rondell White free agent bust? Remember being subjected to almost half-a-season of Tony Batista? Remember Carlos Silva, Scott Baker, Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza combining to make 64 starts despite all being some level of disastrous? Oh and by the way, that 2006 AL Central featured three 90-game winners, whereas this year's will probably have three 90-game losers. If there's one takeaway that sticks out more than any when looking back at '06, it is this: the baseball season is long. Those Twins were not only 9-15 in April, but 25-33 and 11.5 games out of first place as late as June 7th. They still ended up winning almost 100 games. Of course, it's not often that even a superb team is going to play .660 baseball over four months. But hopefully this year's Twins won't put themselves in such a corner. Despite the miserable stretch over the past couple weeks, they're still not there yet. They soon will be if they can't get healthy and out of this funk in a relative hurry. Click here to view the article

What. A. Slump. While going 2-10 over the past two weeks, Minnesota has mostly abided by Murphy's law: whatever can go wrong, will go wrong. There have been plenty of ugly short starts. When a starter managed to turn in a quality outing, the bullpen reliably melted down behind him. Bats have been all too silent. Throw in some questionable decision-making and a healthy dosage of voodoo-hex level bad luck, and you've got a stretch of cover-your-eyes baseball that could only be described as a... (gulp) ... Total System Failure? Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/23 through Sun, 4/29 *** Record Last Week: 1-6 (Overall: 9-14) Run Differential Last Week: -32 (Overall: -34) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (3.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS Kyle Gibson's fantastic performance down the stretch last season earned him another shot with the Twins, but there was understandably a great deal of skepticism around him heading into 2018. We've seen flashes like this from the right-hander before, and they've never sustained. But his breakout in the latter part of 2017 did feel different. Gibson made some key adjustments that allowed his stuff to play up, and the result was a stark improvement in whiff rate. "I learned a lot toward the end of the year last year, how my pitches work and how using the fastball differently can help," Gibson said following a spring start in Port Charlotte. His increasedusage of a four-seam has been huge, but on that particular day his slider happened to be a dominant pitch – "probably as good as it's been all spring," by his estimation – and that weapon's been doing work for him in the regular season. This was especially true on Thursday, when he delivered perhaps the best start of his career at Yankee Stadium. Gibson carried a no-hitter into the fifth on his way to six scoreless, striking out 10 and shutting down a lineup that had destroyed the Twins for three games. He impressively induced 18 swinging strikes – 11 of them with the slider, as Tom noted in his recap. Gibson has now tallied 15-plus whiffs in three of his first four turns; last year, he reached that number twice in 29 total starts. What once seemed like a fading pipe dream is now a reality: Gibson is finally harnessing his stuff and unleashing it on opposing hitters with devastating effectiveness. He has a 13% swinging strike rate in 16 starts dating back to the beginning of last August, which is sensational. For reference, here are the qualified starters who finished 2017 with a whiff rate of 13% or higher: Kluber, Scherzer, Tanaka, Sale, Ray, Kershaw, Archer, Carrasco, deGrom, Strasburg, Severino. It's obviously a stretch to label Gibson a top-of-rotation starter in that class, mainly because his control still leaves much to be desired with a 59% strike rate and 4.7 BB/9 average, but his arsenal is operating at an elite level and has been for some time. That's huge. Jake Odorizzi also had a very nice start against Cincy on Saturday in Minnesota's lone victory of the week. That's about the extent of the positives. LOWLIGHTS Last year, the Twins found themselves so thin on pitching depth so quickly that by the time May rolled around, they were claiming journeymen off waivers out of desperation for bodies on the staff. (Remember Adam Wilk?) In their second go round, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine seemed to determined to avoid such a pitfall. They built out their starting depth with the late-offseason additions of Odorizzi and Lance Lynn. They brought in three veteran relievers on major-league free agent deals, and acquired another through the Rule 5. Even with Ervin Santana and Trevor May on delayed timelines, the Twins had numbers. Yet here in 2018 they find themselves once again scouring the wire for usable arms – somehow even sooner this time around, despite the perceived depth and all the early off days. This time it was David Hale, who threw three crummy innings on Friday and was then sent packing. The offense's slump (averaging only 3.5 runs in 12 games over the past two weeks, despite two series against bottom-tier teams and one in Yankee Stadium) could theoretically be explained in part by unexpected long layoffs, including a four-day respite during the Snowmageddon. But these circumstances should be benefitting the pitchers. Unlike starting position players, it's not unusual for MLB hurlers to go several days without getting into a game. One would think the extra rest would help keep them fresh and strong. That makes these struggles all the more baffling and alarming. Despite the rotation bright spots mentioned above, this was a staggeringly bad week for the pitching staff. In a miserable effort against the Yankees, Lynn coughed up six runs in 3 2/3 innings – his third time in four starts allowing 5+ ER. On Friday, Phil Hughes melted down after the offense scored him five in the first inning, opening the floodgates on one of the most hideous games from a Twins staff in memory. Jose Berrios turned in two terrible starts, derailing his early momentum while relapsing into the same old patterns of erratic inconsistency. And the bullpen? Woof. Around the middle of last week I started looking at some numbers on Trevor Hildenberger and working on a story. By the time I published it on Thursday night, it almost felt irrelevant. Yeah, Hildenberger is broken right now, but his misfires are getting lost in a sea of relief malfunction. Tayler Rogers allowed seven hits and three walks in three innings after looking brutal in the Tampa Bay series. Fernando Rodney blew his second consecutive save on Thursday and narrowly avoided another one on Saturday with his control completely amiss. Tyler Kinley looked bad enough in his lone appearance against New York that the Twins finally ended their ill-advised experiment, designating him for assignment on Thursday. Last week in this space I wrote that swapping Kinley out for Tyler Duffey felt imminent, given the latter's tremendous early success at Triple-A, and this was essentially the outcome of some roster shuffling that took place. But I don't think anyone could have predicted how mind-bogglingly bad Duffey would be in his first two major-league appearances of the season. On Tuesday, Duffey entered as a reliever in the sixth inning against New York, trying to keep a 5-1 game within reach. He proceeded to give up three runs on a pair of homers. He next appeared on Friday night against Cincinnati, and managed to give up five runs (four earned) on four hits while recording one out. He poured gasoline on the fire Hughes had started. Duffey's latest appearance on Sunday counted as an improvement but included another monster home run. He was shipped back to Triple-A following the Reds series. Outside of Ryan Pressly and Addison Reed, there's really not a single Minnesota reliever inspiring any kind of confidence right now. But really, the true lowlight of the week was the bad news on Byron Buxton. We learned on Saturday that the center fielder suffered a hairline fracture in his big toe when he fouled a ball off his foot during a curious rehab stint in Ft. Myers. As of now he's "out indefinitely," with the club hoping he can make it back within a week or two. We'll see. The Twins were 7-4 before Buxton went down with migraines ahead of the Puerto Rico series. They are 2-10 since. It's not a simple cause-and-effect equation, but this team needs Buck. That's become more obvious now than ever before. TRENDING STORYLINE There are a lot of reasons to feel down about the Twins, but from my view, the outlook for the rotation is relatively favorable, and that's a big reason for optimism that this club will get things turned around and start rattling off wins. Gibson's convincing transformation was noted above. Odorizzi has had ups and downs, but generally looks like a quality mid-rotation starter. Berrios has shown what he's capable of, and I've got to believe/hope he's just going through a temporary downturn. Lynn is certainly the most frustrating enigma at this point, but it's important to keep in mind that he went through an abnormal spring training routine and has a long track record of getting it done. At least he's inducing whiffs (double-digit swinging strikes in all four starts). He's bound to settle in. Hughes is the elephant in the room. He hasn't made it through even four innings in either of his first two starts. The righty has a 1.58 WHIP and 1.8 HR/9 rate dating back to 2016, and there is just no evidence suggesting he's going to be able to find a way to be effective again. The substantial money owed to him through next year is a complicating factor, and may compel the team to give him just slightly more time to figure something out, but one way or another it feels like Hughes' days in Minny are numbered. Santana is said to be nearing a bullpen session, which would put him on a concrete timeframe. May is already making rehab starts at extended spring training. Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves are both now a step away at Triple-A. Help is on the way for this unit. We'll just have to see how quick the Twins will be to call on it. For now, it appears Hughes will get at least one more start. How much longer can a spiraling club keep running out a pitcher who gives them so little chance to compete? DOWN ON THE FARM * Finally, Gonsalves received his overdue promotion to Triple-A, after going 19-4 with a 2.23 ERA in the equivalent of a full MLB season at Chattanooga (32 starts, 182 innings). His debut for the Red Wings should come in Pawtucket this week. * Meanwhile, Nick Gordon is still awaiting his Triple-A nod but it can't be too far off with the way he's been hitting. The shortstop owns a .341 batting average at Chattanooga and already has eight extra-base hits in 21 games. * Twins Daily's No. 9 prospect Brusdar Graterol made a big leap this week with the move to full-season ball. In his first start at Low-A on Friday he showed dominant stuff, flashing 96-99 MPH with his fastball while striking out seven of the 17 batters he faced. * Another good week for Royce Lewis at Cedar Rapids. The organization's top prospect went 7-for-21 with five RBI in six games, and stole three bases. He's slashing .333/.382/.412 for the Kernels. * John Curtiss figures to joining the big-league club any day now. He's already on the 40-man roster, and is making a clear case for a promotion with his 2.89 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at Rochester. Curtiss has struck out 17 of the 38 batters he's faced, including five over 2 1/3 in a dazzling outing on Friday. There's a good chance he gets the call on Monday to replace Duffey. LOOKING AHEAD There's no respite on the horizon. With their bullpen already running thin, the Twins still have nine straight days of games ahead. The first three will come against a Toronto team that has historically tormented them to a degree only the Yankees can top. With Lynn and Hughes both scheduled to throw, Minnesota's lineup will need to step up and score some runs after a thoroughly disappointing final two days against Cincinnati, one of baseball's worst staffs. Luckily, it looks like the Twins will avoid Josh Donaldson, who's expected to come off the disabled list next weekend. MONDAY, 4/30: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Aaron Sanchez v. RHP Lance Lynn TUESDAY, 5/1: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Marco Estrada v. RHP Kyle Gibson WEDNESDAY, 5/2: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Marcus Stroman v. RHP Phil Hughes THURSDAY, 5/3: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Jake Odorizzi v RHP Reynaldo Lopez FRIDAY, 5/4: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Carson Fulmer SATURDAY, 5/5: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Lance Lynn v. LHP Hector Santiago SUNDAY, 5/6: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP James Shields Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 17 | NYY 14, MIN 1: What Did We Expect?Game 18 | NYY 8, MIN 3: Resistance is FutileGame 19 | NYY 7, MIN 4: Lance Lynn is a Dumpster Fire Right NowGame 20 | NYY 4, MIN 3: Rodney Spoils Great Gibby Start, Twins SweptGame 21 | CIN 15, MIN 9: It Got Even WorseGame 22 | MIN 3, CIN 1: Losing Streak Snapped as Odorizzi Delivers Quality StartGame 23 | CIN 8, MIN 2: Berrios Bombs as Twins Drop Series to CincyMore on Twins Daily What is driving Pressly's success here in April? Jamie Cameron called out the righty's release point consistency and slider location as two key contributorsTed Schwerzler took a look at the Fernando Rodney experience, which thus far hasn't been all the pleasant for Twins fans as the veteran has blown as many saves as he's converted.Parker Hageman asked: What's going on with Logan Morrison? He attempted to answer the question with one of his patented mechanical breakdowns. Click here to view the article

There has understandably been much hand-wringing over the Twins bullpen here in April. The unit has not performed, with fresh additions like Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney proving problematic in the early going. Another newcomer, Tyler Kinley, has already been shipped out. But in my mind, the most alarming development in Minnesota's relief corps is the striking and inexplicable regression of a player who seemed to be its safest bet. If Trevor Hildenberger can't find it again, and soon, the Twins are in real trouble.Coming into the season, there were plenty of question marks surrounding the Twins bullpen, rebuilt in the wake of an unimpressive 2017 campaign. Hildenberger didn't seem to be one of them, at least not from my view. The formula he deployed very successfully as a rookie was an extremely reliable one: ground balls (58.8% GB), strikeouts (9.4 K/9) and control (1.3 BB/9). Combine these three components, and you've got an almost unassailable recipe for consistently getting hitters out. These are the same strengths that carried Hildenberger through the minors, where he posted a 1.57 ERA in four seasons. The right-hander's signature skills were noticeably amiss in spring training, where he walked four hitters and surrendered five homers in 12 innings. Last year with the Twins, he allowed only four homers and four unintentional walks in 42 innings. But, it's spring training. Struggles during the exhibition slate don't always — or even often — transfer to the regular season. Following one of the righty's rough Grapefruit League outings, I asked Paul Molitor if something seemed off to him about Hildenberger, given the sudden and odd tendency to cough up free passes and long balls. The manager acknowledged that his staff had noticed issues in the sidearmer's delivery. "He's trying really hard to make some adjustments," Molitor said. "I think there have been some things that Garvin (Alston) and Eddie (Guardado) have been looking at to try to get him back mechanically to where he was last year. I think there are some things that are a little bit off. If you're out there thinking about mechanics you're probably not going to make very good pitches." Despite Hildenberger's 7.50 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in 12 Grapefruit League appearances, the Twins never seemed to give much thought to leaving him off the roster, which isn't surprising. He was one of Molitor's most vital and trusted weapons after joining the roster in 2017, accruing the second-highest WPA of all relievers on the staff. And hey, it was only spring training. Unfortunately, in this case, the distressing aspects of an ugly spring have carried over into the games that matter. It is apparent that Hildenberger is out of whack. In just 10 innings, he has already allowed three homers and three unintentional walks — again, he totaled four of each in in 42 frames with Minnesota last year. His ground ball rate is down from 58.8% to 39.4%. Swinging strikes are down from 11.8% to 9.0%. In some ways, the Twins have bigger fish to fry — as of now, Rodney is the lunker of the day. But whereas most members of the bullpen are merely short-term cogs, Hildenberger is key to the big picture. What he brings when he's on his game is extremely difficult to replace. The Twins need him to become entrenched as a quality option in their pen. Right now he's a far cry from that. What would you do? Send him to Triple-A to work out the kinks? Let him keep trying and fight through it in the majors, with help from Alston and Guardado? Click here to view the article

All three of those guys have track records of major-league success. Kinley didn't have a track record of Double-A success. The signings of LoMo, Lynn and Duke were very defensible moves, I'm not going to rip them after three bad weeks. But the Kinley addition was inexplicable from the start, and there was serious opportunity cost from having him clog up a 40-man spot for four months while quality players slipped away. Mistakes happen, and hopefully you learn from them. This was a big one.

Maybe you want to delete this comment since its abject falseness has been pointed out by multiple people? xFIP normalizes HR rate, that is its purpose.

I wouldn't exactly say this is true. Clearly they left one 40-man spot open with the intention of adding a player in the Rule 5, right? And while you're right that they didn't know who would be available, what caliber of player did they really expect to get with the 20th selection?

This is shaping up as the first colossal whiff from the new front office, IMO, and they just continue to make it worse by refusing to cut bait.

Yep, once Kinley's ERA gets back in line with his 6.70 xFIP (which accounts for all the things you mentioned) he'll be good to go. Luv 2 have a "mop-up pitcher" who can't give me more than one (terrible) inning at a time. Bard looked fairly good in his short time with the Angels, the Twins would be lucky to get him back. I'm not sure what the point is in bringing up Burdi. He's on the DL, recovering from surgery, as we all knew he would be.

This is fair but I will point out that the bullpen's xFIP (4.17) is way lower than its ERA (4.70) and the group is currently sporting an inflated .327 BABIP. They're averaging 9.5 K/9 after averaging 7.6 last year, which to me is a promising early sign. Let's see what happens as the luck starts to neutralize a bit.

The Minnesota Twins played only five games over the past week, though it felt like they got two in on Wednesday when they outlasted the Indians over 16 innings. In a week that unfortunately featured a lot more lowlights than highlights, we'll cover both below while also looking ahead to one of the toughest series on the schedule. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/16 through Sun, 4/22 *** Record Last Week: 1-4 (Overall: 8-8) Run Differential Last Week: -16 (Overall: -2) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (1..5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS Eduardo Escobar met Nicolas Cage in Puerto Rico and got a photo with him. Pretty hard to top that: The offense was quiet for much of the week, scoring once in two games and twice in another, but did show impressive resilience by mounting comebacks against the Rays on Friday and Sunday. One of the few hitters to shine throughout the week was Brian Dozier, who extended his team-record season-opening hitting streak to 16 games on Sunday. Dozier went 9-for-26 for the week and is slashing .310/.372/.535 on the season. Helping drive his success is the fact that he has significantly cut down on the whiffs; the second baseman's 15.4% K-rate is well below last year's 20% mark. He's still producing plenty of power, while also protecting the plate and using all fields. Dozier looks fantastic. LOWLIGHTS The Twins played easily their worst ball of the season in Tampa Bay, where they were swept by the Rays in a series that featured plenty of puzzlement and frustration. A few items of note: * At a time where Robbie Grossman should seemingly be playing his way out of the Twins' plans, he is instead somehow working his way into more critical spots. Grossman's season started on a very positive note, when he delivered a game-tying two-run bloop single as a pinch-hitter in the opener. Since then, it's been ugly. He has looked terrible defensively when in the outfield, and has gone 3-for-33 with 14 strikeouts and two walks since the aforementioned single. With Byron Buxton sidelined by migraines, Grossman started all five games last week, going 2-for-16 at the plate and committing an error in right field on Friday that cost a run. Despite this lack of effectiveness at the plate, Paul Molitor inexplicably had Grossman in as his cleanup hitter on Saturday in Tampa, and then in the No. 3 spot on Sunday. Maybe it was just an attempt to boost his confidence. Whatever the case, it's hard to believe that Grossman – who ranks second-to-last on the team in WAR (ahead of only Logan Morrison) – has a particularly long leash. He needs to hit to have value, and when you combine his poor start with his pedestrian 2017 campaign and a .720 career OPS, there's just not a lot to fall back on. * As expected, Phil Hughes was called up to make Sunday's start with the Twins finally in need of a fifth rotation member. He looked about exactly like one would expect – which is to say, not good enough. He needed 70 pitches to get 10 outs, giving up five hits (including a homer) with two walks and two strikeouts. Molitor pulled him after he gave up two singles in the fourth. Hughes had decent enough command, but there's just no upside in his repertoire at this point. He doesn't have the stuff to consistently get big-league hitters out and while it's commendable that he's doing what he can to reinvent himself, sooner than later the Twins will need to come to grips with the situation and make a decision for the good of the team. As we'll discuss in the "Down on the Farm" section, one starter in particular may be poised to force their hand. * Miguel Sano's struggles were profiled in this space last time around, and the contact-challenged slugger went on to endure another tough week. His solo home run in extra innings against Cleveland, while huge, was one of only three hits in 22 plate appearances. He struck out eight times without drawing a walk, and saw his OPS drop from .908 to .744. Sano has only one multi-hit game this season. * While Grossman, Hughes and Sano took their lumps, the biggest culprit in a 1-4 week that dropped the Twins to .500 was, without question, the bullpen. Gabriel Moya gave up a run on Tuesday, then surrendered three more on Saturday and found himself demoted to make room for Hughes. Tyler Kinley followed Moya in Saturday's game and also allowed three runs, pushing his ERA to 12.00 in three appearances. Fernando Rodney blew his second save on Friday night and Zach Duke followed by losing the game when he failed to touch first base and retire Denard Span as the winning run crossed home. Even Addison Reed, who's been lights-out all year, couldn't avoid the damage, coughing up Carlos Gomez's walk-off homer on Sunday. TRENDING STORYLINE A bad week for the bullpen shouldn't necessarily fling us all into a panic; there's still much to like about the unit. But with games scheduled for the next 16 consecutive days, and the first four of those coming at Yankee Stadium, the Twins will need all the relief help they can get. The luxury of being able to stash their Rule 5 pick Kinley for sporadic usage in inconsequential situations is going to evaporate, especially with a fifth starter now on the roster. Down in Rochester, Tyler Duffey has been pitching like a man on a mission, with 11 scoreless innings and a 14-to-1 K/BB ratio in four appearances. Duffey was solid as the team's long man last year and the decision to carry Kinley over him out of spring training was somewhat dubious. A swap feels imminent. We'll see how long it takes, and whether they can find a way to keep Kinley in the organization. DOWN ON THE FARM Kinley isn't the only one who's being pushed by a strong performer in Triple-A. As mentioned earlier, Hughes doesn't have a ton of ground to stand on in the rotation. Twins Daily's No. 2 prospect Fernando Romero was masterful for the Red Wings on Sunday, allowing one run on two hits over 6 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and two walks. His ERA sits at 1.69. A few more outings like that should quickly put him in the discussion for that fifth starter spot. Meanwhile, No. 1 prospect Royce Lewis lifted his batting average at Cedar Rapids from .222 to .323 on Saturday with a four-hit game. All is going well for the teen phenom in the Midwest League, where he has struck out only three times in 35 plate appearances. Zack Littell, who we ranked as the organization's 11th-best prospect and fifth-best pitcher, has piled up 25 strikeouts in 14 innings at Chattanooga after fanning eight over 5 2/3 on Tuesday. He has induced double-digit swinging strikes in each of his three starts with an eye-popping 17% whiff rate overall. Certainly something to keep an eye on. No. 7 prospect Brent Rookerslumped out of the gates at Chattanooga, entering last week with a .212 average to go along with no walks and no extra-base hits. Not exactly what you like to see out of a highly drafted college player lauded for his advanced bat. But he got it going in six games for the Lookouts last week, posting a 7-for-23 (.304) with his first Double-A homer as well as a double and triple. He still hasn't worked a single walk this season though. LOOKING AHEAD Heading to the Bronx for a four-game series against the Yankees and their loaded lineup isn't exactly the ideal elixir for a slumping team with a beleaguered bullpen, but that is what's what the Twins now face. It could be a rough week for the pitching staff, but the team will at least get a reprieve when they return home for the weekend to host Cincinnati, a team so bad it fired its manager after a 3-15 start. MONDAY, 4/23: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Masahiro Tanaka TUESDAY, 4/24: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP CC Sabathia WEDNESDAY, 4/25: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Sonny Gray THURSDAY, 4/26: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Jordan Montgomery FRIDAY, 4/27: REDS @ TWINS – RHP Luis Castillo v. RHP Phil Hughes SATURDAY: 4/28: REDS @ TWINS – RHP Sal Romano v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SUNDAY, 4/29: REDS @ TWINS – RHP Tyler Mahle v. RHP Jose Berrios Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 12 | CLE 6, MIN 1: Kluber, Lindor Outshine Twins in Puerto RicoGame 13 | MIN 2, CLE 1: Berrios Stars, LaMarre Plays Hero as Twins Survive 16-Inning DuelGame 14 | TB 8, MIN 7: Playing the Wrong NotesGame 15 | TB 10, MIN 1: Snell Stifles Twins BatsGame 16 | TB 8, MIN 6: Twins Swept on Gomez Walk-off HomerMore on Twins Daily "If Joe Mauer retired today, there is a good chance he wouldn’t get the call from Cooperstown." What can he do going forward to change that? Cody Christie explored Mauer's Hall of Fame caseand how the first baseman can strengthen it before he retires.Meanwhile, Andrew Thares examined the myth around Mauer's supposed lack of clutch hitting. His findings are worth your time.Jamie Cameron broke down the numerous improvements we've seen from Max Kepler at the plate early on.Luke Albrecht filed a report from his experience Puerto Rico, where he watched both games between the Twins and Indians.Ted Schwerzler wrote about the stunning success of Ryan Pressly, who finally seems to be pulling it all together and turning his stuff into results. Pressly was flat-out nasty on Sunday, striking out four of the five hitters he shut down in order. Click here to view the article

Despite his pristine numbers at every level of the minors, Jose Berrios had his share of detractors in the prospect analyst community. The knock on him was usually the same, and it made sense: When diminutive fly-ball pitchers with no downward plane go up against giant big-league hitters with uppercut swings, the home runs tend to mount. And yet, what was supposed to be the right-hander's biggest weakness has in fact been one of his greatest strengths.After keeping Cleveland hitters in the yard over seven shutout innings on Wednesday night, Berrios has allowed only one home run over four starts this season. Last year, he surrendered only 15 long balls in 145 innings. His 0.93 HR/9 rate was best among Twins starters, and would have placed him among MLB's top 10 if he qualified. Still only 23 years old, Berrios is establishing himself as one of the stingiest pitchers in the game when it comes to homers. It isn't exactly hard to see why. Batters have struggled to catch up to his 94 MPH fastball. The lively two-seamer has so much run it's almost impossible to barrel. And his heavily featured curveball has a case as one of the best pitches in the game today. Berrios delivers it with such consistent zip and tight spin that he pretty much never hangs one. According to the PitchFX data available through Brooks Baseball, opponents have slugged .095 against Berrios' curve this year. Zero ninety five! The batted ball data bears this out as well. Check out the ratio of hard-hit versus soft-hit, and how it's evolved in his three seasons as a big-leaguer: Download attachment: berriosbbdatafg.JPG So when Berrios isn't striking people out, which he's done at an exceptional rate, he's inducing weak contact like no one else. His soft contact rate is the highest in the league and his hard contact rate is tied with Philadelphia's Aaron Nola as the lowest. Even with the somewhat rough go in his second start (an outing in which he was brilliant through three innings before unraveling in sub-30 conditions), Berrios has been as close to perfect on the hill as you'll ever see. His 1.63 ERA matches up almost exactly with his 1.70 FIP, reinforcing that there's been zero luck involved with his transcendent performance. It's only four starts. We're still in the middle of April. But Jose Berrios is showing every sign of being ready to turn the corner and become an ace for the Twins. Click here to view the article