Nick Nelson

Ok, so you've named one player who might weigh more (and is also 3-4 inches taller) and another who retired three years ago and was a notorious atrocity defensively. I said "fielders" in the excerpt you quoted, so Lynn and Colon aren't relevant. Also I suggest taking a look at some pictures of Puckett and Newman when they were Sano's age before bringing them up in this conversation. Not comparable cases.

People are going to believe what they want on this subject. I'll just say this much: Peterson and (my goodness ESPECIALLY) Bridgewater are not built like Miguel Sano. Genetically he is simply a big kid, and his size fuels his incredible power. Also, his rumored weigh-in this spring (per Reusse) is about the same as his exit physical in 2017 so it's not like he has added weight. It's just hard to lose a ton when you're unable to put in the physical conditioning work.

A weighty issue. A giant question mark. An elephant in the room. Whatever hackneyed wordplay you want to use, Miguel Sano is a radiating source of mystery in Minnesota Twins camp, and his enigmatic aura extends to the position he inhabits.Projected Starter: Miguel Sano Likely Backup: Eduardo Escobar Depth: Ehire Adrianza, Erick Aybar, Taylor Featherston Prospects: Travis Blankenhorn, Andrew Bechtold, Jose Miranda THE GOOD It's all too easy to forget now, but just eight short months ago, Sano was the lone All Star rep from Minnesota's lineup. By the break, he already had 21 home runs with an OPS over 900, solidifying his status as long-term cog in the Twins infield. Though clearly playing above his listed weight of 260 pounds, he still respectably held his own at third base, making the majority of routine plays and occasionally flashing excellence with his cannon arm. Sano is an incredible talent. Let's not lose sight of that. He launched a pair of leisurely home runs on Friday in his sixth game of the spring, and that kind of thing should still be the expectation. If he's in the lineup, he's going to be a major threat. Even with his downslide after the All-Star break last year, the 24-year-old was on pace for 37 home runs before going down with a shin injury in August. With 71 career dingers in the books before age 25, he's on a rare pace. There are forces working against Sano – some of his own making, others not. But he is young enough to overcome them and put them in the rear view mirror. If it's always darkest before the dawn, then perhaps we're on the verge of a true breakthrough, which in Sano's case would simply mean a full season's worth of games (he's yet to play more than 116 in an MLB campaign) while realizing his 40 HR, 100+ RBI potential. In the event that Sano needs to miss time due to a suspension, setback with his leg, or some other affliction, the Twins are blessed with a pretty strong fallback option. Eduardo Escobar filled in brilliantly at the hot corner last year after the starter went down, slugging .529 with 10 bombs to basically mirror Sano's prodigious power output. Escobar finished with a .758 OPS overall, and has slashed .257/.304/.413 over the past four seasons. He's a better contingency than most teams have behind their best hitter, and his presence has been a big factor in mitigating the sense of alarm around Sano's ambiguity. THE BAD Optimism aside, the alarm is well warranted. Sano has an assault investigation floating over his head, a steel rod in his shin, and plenty of skeptics surrounding him in the organization. Those might include his manager. Always measured in his words, Paul Molitor conveyed some leeriness when talking to Brian Murphy of the Pioneer Press last month: “I think the trend has been [sano's] figuring some things out; some things have been a little harder to get through to him,” Molitor said. “At times I’ve tried to involve people that might be able to provide a voice that will penetrate. We’re just trying to get him to see the bigger picture. “He loves to play. It’s all in front of him. He, as much as anyone in that clubhouse, wants what’s in front of him, but I’m not sure he understands what is required to reap those rewards — of competing, winning, financial security, taking care of his family. We’re trying." Such sentiments toward Sano are nothing new, but it was easier to be sympathetic when he was a 22-year-old rookie. Today he's a 25-year-old who's shown up at camp with – in the kindest possible phrasing of his general manager – a "generous carriage." According to Pat Reusse, Sano is rumored to have weighed in this spring at 293 lbs. Where would that heft rank among all major-league players? It's almost impossible to say, given the sweeping inaccuracy of official listings (again, MLB's site still has Sano at 260), but I think we can safely say he's among the top handful of players. There's not likely a larger fielder outside of first base in the game. This isn't a knock against his all-around outlook as a big-leaguer, because I happen to believe that Sano can be a monster hitter even at three bucks, but the reality is that he's on the verge of becoming untenable at third base. A certain spryness requisite to the position becomes elusive for a man so large. Barring a reversal in physical development, which might be unrealistic given his genetic makeup, Sano appears destined for DH. The question is when. Minnesota's front office is hoping he can hold out as long as possible, because right now the system is thin on replacements. Yes, Escobar can fill in short-term. But he's eligible for free agency after this season. And the next in line behind him as a legit starting option at the position is... well, completely unclear. A trio of recent high draft picks stand out as the brightest long-term hopes: 2015 third-rounder Travis Blankenhorn (21), 2016 second-rounder Jose Miranda (19) and 2017 fifth-rounder Andrew Bechtold (21). But none will be arriving anytime soon. So suffice to say it would be really nice if Sano could hold it down at third for at least a couple more years. Which might help explain why the Twins haven't really entertained the idea of moving him off the position, and in fact delayed any possibility of such an outcome by signing Logan Morrison. THE BOTTOM LINE It's all about Sano. If he can make a statement by proving himself healthy and at least serviceable defensively, the Twins will be more than happy to stick with him at third indefinitely. Sano's agility has always been better than you'd expect for his size, so maybe he'll surprise us even at this weight. More likely, he'll need to put in work and slim down a bit to remain viable at the hot corner, but that's a perfectly feasible scenario. It's important to keep in mind that he was extremely limited in his ability to condition this past offseason. To pin the lack of weight loss on disinterest would be ignorant. If things go amiss for the star slugger this season, Escobar provides a solid security valve, for now. After 2018, the front office may need to look at building out some better long-term depth at the position. Hopefully someone like Blankenhorn or Bechtold can take a big step forward. Click here to view the article

Fair points. We'll see I guess. Walker has never had a 5-WAR season, neither did Uggla. Dozier's done it two years back to back. And I think there's a good chance he makes it three straight. I'd be curious to see the recent history of free agent contracts signed by players coming off three consecutive seasons of 5+ WAR.

I found this excerpt from Souhan's column on Dozier earlier this week telling. “I think teams have gotten a lot smarter, and they really break down the numbers,” [Dozier] said. “The biggest thing in free agency is really making sure agents know their players’ value, and that their players understand that. “And how teams are evaluating players — that if you hit 30 home runs and drive in 80 and you’re one-dimensional and your WAR is a .8 you aren’t going to get paid like players used to. If you’ve had a high WAR for many years, I think you’ll do all right.” He gets it. Over the past two years Dozier has 10.8 WAR -- 13th most in baseball among hitters. The guys around him? Justin Turner, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Freddie Freeman. I don't think there's any question the latter three would be looking at deals in the 100M range as free agents. Turner got 4/64 from LA as a 32-year-old last offseason but he didn't have nearly the track record of Dozier, nor the entrenched rep as a leader and clubhouse staple. The landscape of free agency is changing, yes, but modern front offices still recognize and highly value WAR and other stats where Dozier rates well. And it'll probably be a different story once some of the big players reset their luxury tax penalties.

Can you give me an example of "the media" taking this kind of stance? I haven't seen it. Most people -- even Dozier fans -- seem to understand the validity of the team's thinking from what I've seen. Whoops, fixed. Thank you! Unless he has a big setback this year, Dozier is going to get a contract approaching 100M. I have no doubt. He'll be viewed as much more of a Hosmer type than a Moustakas type. IMO Lewis will end up at either SS or CF. I don't see second base in his future. Could be wrong.

At first base for the Twins, a legacy might be coming to an end. Maybe not. A few dozen feet to the left, another legacy's looming closure feels more fated. Brian Dozier has already carved out distinction as one of the greatest second basemen in franchise history, and the best may well be yet to come, but his tenure in Minnesota is fleeting.Projected Starter: Brian Dozier Likely Backup: Ehire Adrianza Depth: Eduardo Escobar, Nick Gordon, Gregorio Petit Prospects: Gordon, Travis Blankenhorn, Yunior Severino THE GOOD It's one of the most obnoxious clichés in sports, but in this case it's too accurate not to acknowledge: Dozier has made a habit out of proving doubters wrong. He wasn't in great demand as a draft prospect out of the University of Southern Mississippi back in 2009, slipping to the eighth round despite batting .355 during a four-year collegiate career. In the Twins system, Dozier never graced the top end of prospect lists like the players who now follow him in the lineup. When drafted he was mostly viewed as a future utility player – a tweener in the middle infield without enough power to project as an impact hitter – and his early years in the minors followed suit. But Dozier just kept on improving. He broke out with a monster year at Double-A, reached the big leagues by age 25, and slowly blossomed into a premier power hitter in the game. His 2016 season seemed flukish, absurd, unrepeatable. Forty-two home runs? From a guy who previously hit 32 in eight years of college and minor-league ball combined?? How silly to doubt him. He brought it again in 2017, with arguably an even better overall performance. Dozier is the embodiment of a self-made star, and the definition of a leader by example. His production last year solidifies his status as a 5-WAR player, placing him comfortably in the top 15 percent of all qualified MLBers. Turning 31 in May, he's still in his physical prime. And beyond his natural competitive drive, Dozier has added incentive this year: the highest personal stakes of his life. For all his accomplishment, his career earnings amount to a relative pittance in the spectrum of Major League Baseball's upper echelon. Dozier is not only trying to lead an improving young team back to the playoffs this year; he's also showcasing himself for the league in hopes of earning a nine-digit paycheck he most certainly deserves, at a time where those are getting awfully hard to come by. If Dozier should stumble for some reason this year, we'll know for certain it wasn't due to a lack of effort, focus, or urgency. THE BAD Of course, the huge buzzkill of this whole deal is that Dozier's days in Minnesota appear to be numbered. He obviously has gotten the hint, and expressed his disappointment candidly earlier this week: "It's pretty much black and white from what I've been hearing, which is upsetting, but you turn the page and play to win." Dozier's got a spectacular record of durability. Were he to uncharacteristically miss time, Ehire Adrianza or Eduardo Escobar would figure to primarily fill in early on. Potentially Nick Gordon could emerge as an option somewhere along the way. Gordon's presence, in part, has contributed to the front office holding off on extension negotiations with Dozier. The 22-year-old ranks as Twins Daily's No. 3 prospect and will probably be playing short in Rochester by midsummer, if not from the outset. The tentative plan right now has him lining up with Jorge Polanco in the 2019 middle infield – assignments TBD. Neither has the makings of a stellar MLB shortstop and both currently are more ideally suited for second. Here's the rub: Polanco and Gordon both are more likely than Dozier to be manning second base beyond 2018, and neither is at all likely to ever reach Dozier's current level of top-tier production. THE BOTTOM LINE The short-term outlook at second base is blindingly bright. Dozier is a legit star player with more experience and motivation than ever before. Every sign points to another year as one of MLB's more impactful assets. After that, all bets are off. Gordon and Polanco seem almost equally likely to land at second as semi-permanent solutions. Travis Blankenhorn and Yunior Severino lurk in the lower levels. This will very likely be the last year we're able to watch Dozier dig in to lead off each game for the club that drafted him nearly a decade ago. Enjoy it while you can, Twins fans. But throughout the summer, keep an eye on movement behind him on the depth chart and in the system, because it may foretell the future of second base for the franchise. ~~~ Catch up on the rest of the series: Twins Position Analysis: Catcher Twins Position Analysis: First Base Click here to view the article

Who is Minnesota's heir apparent at first base? The answer is unclear at this moment, but should come into focus by summer's end. As Joe Mauer approaches the finish line of an historic contract and faces an uncertain future, the question is indeed a pertinent one.Projected Starter: Joe Mauer Likely Backup: Logan Morrison Depth: Kennys Vargas, Mitch Garver, Brock Stassi Prospects: Lewin Diaz, Brent Rooker, Zander Wiel THE GOOD Mauer! It feels awesome to be able to once again apply that descriptor. After toiling in mediocrity for three seasons following his concussion-driven shift to first base, the six-time All-Star shook off a rough April and reverted to vintage form. From May 1st through the end of the 2017 season, Mauer hit .319/.402/.443. From 2010 through 2013, his post-MVP career at catcher, he hit .317/.400/.447. Basically the same guy. While less valuable at first than behind the plate, that production is still very useful, especially in a power-laden lineup like Minnesota's. Mauer was never going to be the prototypical slugging first baseman but last year he was a highly valuable contributor from the position in his own right. As long as that continues, he'll be a welcome fixture. Mauer is in line for his fifth consecutive Opening Day start at first base. He grabbed the torch from Justin Morneau, who had rattled off eight in a row. It's been a long time since that real estate has been primarily occupied by anybody other than the M&M boys (or, M&M&M if you want to add Mientkiewicz). Could Logan Morrison be next in the long and proud lineage of M's at first base? The surprise addition is set to step in for Minnesota mainly as a DH, but made 119 starts at first for the Rays last year and certainly is capable defensively. Mauer is, of course, several notches above "capable" with the glove, so he's the preferred option to have on the field at this time. If Morrison dramatically outperforms Mauer at the plate (he edged him in OPS by almost 70 points last year), it will be interesting to see how things play out next offseason, when the latter is a 35-year-old free agent, and the former a 31-year-old with an $8 million option for 2019. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Regardless of what happens down the road, the Twins are quite fortunate to have both players on hand for now. Morrison can frequently fill in at first, helping keep the veteran starter fresh throughout the summer, and he's a strong backup plan should Mauer miss any significant time. There is widespread belief that eventually Brent Rooker, the 2017 draft pick recently ranked as Twins Daily's No. 7 prospect, will become the next entrenched inhabitant at first base. His advanced college bat caught on quickly in the pros, and it's not unthinkable he could be approaching MLB-ready by year's end. Lewin Diaz, though further off, is another future possibility. The organization seems to have a pretty good road map laid out at the position, with Morrison's flexible contract helping out in the short term. This much is clear: Mauer needs to prove this year he's still the team's best option going forward. The starting job will not simply be handed back to him 2019. THE BAD Even though he returned to hitting at essentially the highest level one could expect, Mauer still was not a standout offensive first baseman in 2017. While his .349 wOBA was tops since switching positions, he still ranked 18th out of 28 qualified big-leaguers at his new home. That's the tough thing. With his lack of power, any age-related decline for Mauer in terms of plate vision or bat speed could send him hurtling back toward the lowest ranks of productivity. And while they'll likely have other options, realistically it is going to take a while for the Twins to turn away from their longtime franchise centerpiece as a regular. In a nutshell, that's the foreseeable downside here. Mauer was mostly a non-factor in the lineup from 2014 through 2016, and similar output would be tougher to stomach on a (hopefully) contending team with (hopefully) appealing alternatives. In the event Mauer gets hurt or merits replacement, theoretically the Twins could plug Morrison in at first base and revert to their original DH plan: Robbie Grossman plus a rotation of others like Miguel Sano and Eduardo Escobar. Kennys Vargas was also part of that original plan but if everyone's healthy he has no path to a 25-man roster spot. He's out of options and someone is all but certain to take a gamble on his switch-hitting power bat once he lands on waivers. Since the start of 2016, Vargas has launched 21 home runs in 440 MLB plate appearances (about two-thirds of a season's worth) with a very respectable .788 OPS. He's not an easy loss but the Twins aren't going to carry a second-string DH, knowing they'll need to get Sano semi-regular at-bats there also. I'd like to think there's some non-contender willing to trot Vargas out at first base or DH for 600 plate appearances to see if he could become a cheap and serviceable slugger in the middle of its lineup for a few years. However, Vargas may need to go mash in Korea for a bit to open that window. THE BOTTOM LINE Mauer had a good season, punctuated by a very strong finish, and is heading into a new campaign with palpable momentum for the first time in years. In Morrison, the Twins have also added last year's No. 11 finisher in WAR among MLB first basemen. So, they're looking quite healthy in terms of immediate depth. Rooker and Diaz give them a pair of quality pipeline pieces at the position. And any number of other marginal defenders throughout the system could ultimately land there. Minnesota may be on the verge of transition at first base, but the uncertainty – at a position that's seen ridiculous stability over the past couple of decades – is more intriguing than foreboding. Click here to view the article

In the coming weeks, leading up to the start of the regular season, we'll take an in-depth look at every position for the 2018 Twins, breaking down the strengths, weaknesses, depth, and outlook for each. Today we kick off this new series by analyzing the catcher position, where Minnesota's reigning Minor League Player of the Year will be seeking to make a major impact.Projected Starter: Jason Castro Likely Backup: Mitch Garver Depth: Bobby Wilson, Willians Astudillo, Brian Navarreto Prospects: David Banuelos, Ben Rortvedt THE GOOD By signing Jason Castro to a three-year deal within his first few weeks on the job, GM Thad Levine was laying groundwork for a sustained platoon set-up at the catcher position. This year, we'll see that plan come to fruition. Mitch Garver, one of the best catching prospects developed by the Twins in some time, was nearing readiness a year ago but not quite there. Chris Gimenez was signed as a stopgap so Garver could continue growing in the minors. And grow he did. The 26-year-old enjoyed a breakout season at Rochester, with his offensive production elevating from good to great for the first time. He was especially effective against left-handed pitchers, slashing .290/.408/.530 with a 17% walk rate. That of course makes him an ideally suited complement to the lefty-hitting Twins incumbent. Castro actually didn't hit very well against right-handed pitchers in 2017, batting .234 with a .379 slugging percentage, but that's a departure from his career norm. And despite the overall struggles he still managed a 12.5% walk rate. In a potentially stacked Twins lineup, production at catcher figures to be a relative luxury. If Castro and Garver stay healthy, there's enough OBP floor here to suggest they'll at least keep the position from being a liability. Catcher is a punishing, brutal assignment however. The likelihood of both players avoiding the disabled list all summer is not high, and that's where things get a little dubious here. THE BAD The Twins are showing a ton of confidence in Garver, despite his .636 OPS during a brief MLB debut last year. They've given him a clear and unobstructed path to a roster spot as Castro's caddy – a significant role that should yield 200-300 plate appearances, and perhaps more if performance warrants. This is nice to see. The Twins are going all-in on a homegrown player who has absolutely earned the opportunity. But the degree to which they've put their eggs in the Garver basket borders on brazen. We're still in the first week of March, and both of Minnesota's top two catchers on the depth chart have already experienced minor health issues. Castro's been kept out of the lineup in recent days by migraines. Garver tweaked his knee last week seriously enough to require tests, but got good news from his scans, which showed no significant damage. If either player encounters a more substantial injury this month and needs to open the season on the disabled list, the Twins are presently lined up to go with Bobby Wilson on the 25-man roster. He's 34, hasn't surfaced in the majors since 2016, and owns a .587 big-league OPS. The two other guys getting reps in camp, Willians Astudillo and Brian Navarreto, have never played in the majors. Astudillo, I will say, is a little intriguing. He's never been much of a prospect but batted .342 in 36 games with Arizona's Triple-A affiliate last year, and more recently had an excellent showing in the Venezuelan Winter League. He never strikes out and is still only 26. Maybe there's something there. But, intrigue aside, the Twins have little in the way of established, viable MLB depth behind Castro and Garver. Navarreto has a .203 lifetime average in the minors, and the club's top upcoming prospects at the position – Rortvedt and Banuelos – have yet to reach Double-A. Possible injuries aren't the only concern stemming from Minnesota's lack of proven catching contingencies. Garver himself is unproven. He hit .196 in a month-long stint with the Twins last year and we hardly saw him tested defensively at the highest level. (He caught only 50 innings in six weeks with the club.) Because he'll have a low-pressure role, a high concentration of at-bats against southpaws, and plenty of days off from catching to rest his legs, Garver is being given almost ideal circumstances for a smooth transition into the majors. But he's still gotta do it. And if he's not up to the task, the Twins really don't have much in the way of fallback options at this point. THE BOTTOM LINE As you'll see throughout this series, the Twins have done well to build ample depth at almost every position. Catcher is an exception. If Garver gets overwhelmed, or gets hurt, or Castro gets hurt, this team could be in a tough spot. And, realistically, one of those things is probably going to happen at some point. At the same time, their ability to address this issue is limited. The Twins seem to be telling Garver, "The job is yours, you don't need to 'earn' it with your play in spring training, we're giving you a full shot here so go get it." Which is great! But it makes Minnesota an unappealing destination for any prospective addition who deserves to be in the majors. Even if a remaining free agent like Geovany Soto, Carlos Ruiz or Jonathan Lucroy reaches a point where he's willing to settle for a low-stakes minor-league contract, it won't be with a team that gives him almost zero opportunity to win even a backup job. Castro is a well established commodity at this point. He's a safe bet for an OPS around .700 with steady defense behind the plate. In 2017 he anchored a position that collectively finished with a .703 OPS, good for 10th in the American League. Garver represents the team's best chance to move the needle. He brings more to the table than Gimenez skill-wise, so if things click Garver could fuel big improvement for this unit. But right now, he's an unknown, and one of the biggest wild cards on the roster. Click here to view the article

March is underway and spring training is now in full swing. In fact, before we know it, the first round of camp cuts will already be upon us. As we wrap up the first full week of exhibition games, here's a look at three key Minnesota Twins storylines.* Heading into camp, it appeared the Twins were committed to keeping the designated hitter spot flexible this year, adhering to the revolving door approach that's basically been their norm. Not a bad idea for a team with a slow-footed fourth outfielder, an aging first baseman who benefits from rest, and a hefty third baseman coming off leg surgery. The arrival of Logan Morrison has flipped this dynamic on its side. Fresh off a 38-homer season with Tampa, Morrison is a big add for the offense, and figures to become a mainstay at DH. That will represent a change of course for the Twins, who haven't had a single player make 70+ starts at designated hitter since Jim Thome in 2010. In addition to stability, they'll hope Morrison can bring more production. Last year's DH cohort, led by Robbie Grossman, hit just .237/.328/.383 for a .711 OPS; only catchers (.703) yielded a worse mark among Twins position groups. Grossman appears to be thrust onto precarious ground by the new slugger's arrival. In 2017, 57% of his 456 plate appearances came as DH, and it's not clear the team is interested in shifting that balance toward the outfield. Last year Paul Molitor became very comfortable writing in the Rosario-Buxton-Kepler alignment almost every day, and there's no reason to expect him to deviate if all are healthy. Swapping in Grossman downgrades the defense, and it's not clear he's an offensive upgrade over any of the three. With that said, I have a really hard time envisioning Grossman being left off the roster. He led the team in on-base percentage in 2016 and ranked second last year. Even if he doesn't start frequently, there's plenty of value in a switch-hitter who can come off the bench and give you a disciplined AB from either side. One school of thought suggests the Twins could part with Grossman and carry Zack Granite as their fourth outfielder. I don't see it. Granite has multiple options remaining, so he can easily be stashed at Rochester until he's needed. He wouldn't serve much purpose on the Twins roster with all three starting outfielders healthy. And as for the forgotten man, Kennys Vargas? As Seth put it yesterday: "At this point, he's essentially getting at-bats to show 29 other teams what he can do." * Over the past few years, Brian Dozier has been known for launching bombs on the baseball field. Earlier this week, he dropped one in the clubhouse. Okay, that's a stretch. It's been clear for some time that Dozier was intent on testing the free agent market, and there've been zero rumors of contract negotiations with the Twins. Still, it was a bit surprising to see him so frontal and candid about his looming date with the open market. I respect it. Dozier might be going against the grain by dispelling the notion of a spring or in-season extension, but he's shutting it down as a talking point right off the bat and that's just fine. He insists it won't distract him this year and I believe it. Left unspoken by Dozier was this: He is very likely entering his final year as a Twin. We've seen how shrewd this new front office is; what are the chances they'd pay him the money he'll want as a 31-year-old, with Nick Gordon standing in line as a cheap long-term replacement? From the very start, Dozier's relationship with Minnesota's current baseball ops leadership has been lukewarm at best. The first thing Derek Falvey and Thad Levine did when they arrived was float him in highly publicized trade talks with the Dodgers. At the deadline Dozier openly took exception to the team's sudden pivot from buyer to seller. And the Twins haven't publicly hinted at any serious desire to hammer out a long-term deal with their best player. In the entirety of his MLB career up to this point, Dozier has pocketed about half of Joe Mauer's 2018 salary. If he's got a chip on his shoulder, and feels he's earned himself a windfall from whatever club is willing, I don't blame him in the least. Frankly, I can't wait to see how the added motivation manifests this season. * Speaking of Mauer, he too is heading into the final year of his contract, as you might have heard. Much like Dozier, he makes it no secret that he is going to let the 2018 season play out and go from there. But unlike his infield neighbor, Mauer won't be chasing a big payday in the fall – he'll be weighing retirement. Mauer, who turns 35 in a month, proved last year that he isn't cooked. (Before that, it was very much in question.) If he can continue at that 2017 level or better, it'd be an easy decision to invite him back on a short-term pact for around half his current salary. But if he reverts to something resembling his 2014-through-2016 form? Then things get interesting. These days, it isn't hard to find high-quality hitters who can play first base – Logan Morrison serving as case in point. In fact, by the end of this season, Morrison may have clearly established himself as the clearly superior offensive weapon, in which case he can be retained for $8 million in 2019. At that juncture, what's stopping the Twins from moving on? Well, there is Mauer's already mythical status within the franchise, and with at least some corners of the fanbase. Also: his phenomenal glove, familiarity in the clubhouse, and revered presence in the batter's box cannot be overlooked. But as we've seen with Dozier, the new brass ain't too sentimental. There's pretty much zero chance Mauer, with his deep Minnesota roots and young twin girls, is going to go play in another city for a year or two. He basically admitted as much: “This is where I want to be. This is where my family is, where my daughters are growing up. I have no intention of going anywhere else. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that.” So, if his play this year doesn't inspire the Twins to make a serious run at bringing him back, we could be looking at the end of the road for Joe Mauer. And if this winds up being the last year in a Minnesota uniform for both he and Dozier – the two longest-tenured Twins – that's 25 combined years in the organization, walking into the sunset. The last enduring links to bygone eras. Can the new wave combine with the final vestiges of the old to make an epic run? It almost feels like... destiny. Click here to view the article

Yeah, I didn't mean to say, 'be ready to throw these guys out there and let them flap in the wind regardless of results.' I meant more, 'from a planning standpoint, they should be leaving flexibility to get these guys opportunities if they're cruising in Triple-A.' Yes, it should be a case-by-case basis. But if they call someone up and he struggles, it doesn't mean they made the wrong call. You could certainly make an argument that guys like Berrios, Gibson and May ultimately benefited from the initial shellackings they took in the big leagues, as all looked significantly more prepared and comfortable on that stage the following season. In each case there was some debate around whether it was really the right time to call them up. The thing is that the Twins were never in serious contention when those pitchers arrived so there's an added dynamic now at play.

Not saying that's true in all cases by any means. And I do think a guy can keep improving at Triple-A especially in a case like Berrios or Buxton where they were able to get exposure against MLB hitters to have those weaknesses crystallized before going back to work on them. It isn't about being able to afford it, though. It's just a reality they need to plan around. And hopefully it won't take 2-3 years to get through the growing pains. And the flip side of this is that Romero will already be down to his last option year in 2019. So you want to be pretty comfortable he's figured things out in the majors by the end of that year.

Will you feel differently if we get deep into the summer and the Twins are angling for a postseason spot with a shaky 5th starter while Romero torches Triple-A?

When a vaunted young player arrives in the major leagues and initially struggles, it's easy – perhaps even automatic – to jump to an inescapable conclusion: He was rushed. ... Was he though?Jose Berrios arrived in the majors in 2016 at age 22. He went on to post an 8.02 ERA in 14 starts as a Twin. Must have been rushed. Byron Buxton reached the big leagues a year earlier in 2015, at age 21. He posted a brutal .576 OPS in 46 games with Minnesota. Had to be rushed. And last season, as Jorge Polanco slogged his way to the end of July, one of the worst hitters in baseball, we all found ourselves wondering: Should the 23-year-old really be playing at the highest level right now? (Not that the Twins had any choice in that case.) The "rushed" narrative is convenient. But not always accurate. Here's the problem: You send any of those guys back to Triple-A at the time they're flailing in the major leagues, and they dominate. Often to the point where you stop seeing any benefit. Buxton is a .331 career hitter at Triple-A. What's he learning if you send him back there? Minor-league batters waved at everything Berrios threw. How's he going to improve his command when 10 inches off the plate works perfectly well? Would Polanco have had the same epiphany last August if he hadn't endured the humbling stretch of failure that led up to it? These case studies hint toward a universal truth: Sometimes, the only way to become a successful big-leaguer is by working through your lumps in The Show. For a team like the Twins, deep into its rebuild-from-within, this presents a paradox. An Inefficient Market The immense value of an effective young starting pitcher in today's game is difficult to overstate. Successfully develop your own quality rotation staple, and you get optional control over (roughly) ages 24-through-30, most likely the best years his arm will ever see. All for a bit more than Jordan Zimmermann will earn this year alone in Detroit at age 32. Baseball's economics are out of whack, if you haven't noticed. If this was an elephant in the room, then the beast has now emerged into the sunlight. There's a reason Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb continue to wallow in free agency, their demands unmet. There's a reason the Rays are able to command a kingly sum for Chris Archer. Teams are finally seeing the lopsided value chasm across the free agency divide. Or at least, they're finally awakening to the extreme financial implications. My point here is that the Twins have every incentive to find out if Gonsalves or Romero – or Zack Littell, or Lewis Thorpe, or any number of other candidates – can become one of those treasured cheap young rotation staples. But finding out will require enduring some pain. Fits and Starts A few years ago, Peyton Manning retired with the most passing yards and touchdowns in NFL history. Nearly two decades prior, as a 22-year-old rookie, he threw a league-leading 28 interceptions as Colts fans endured a 3-13 death march. In many cases, even the greats require seasoning at the highest level to reach their potential. Not everyone is LeBron James or Randy Moss or Madison Bumgarner. It's unlikely such a rare specimen is currently in the Twins system. They have do have a number of guys capable of becoming quality big-league arms – perhaps even All-Stars. But history tells us it won't happen right away. Look back at virtually any big-name Minnesota pitcher you can think of from the past two decades – Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, Johan Santana, Brad Radke – they all finished with ERAs over 5 in their first MLB seasons. They call the pitching mound a "hill" partially because of its shapely resemblance, but also because reaching the top can be a strenuous climb. Trouble with the Curves Gonsalves is going to open this season in Rochester. Romero is likely ticketed for Chattanooga, but with two dozen starts already under his belt there, he'll move up quickly. They're both still only 23, but Minnesota's top two pitching prospects could be making cases for promotions by July or so. We'll undoubtedly start hearing calls for them if anyone in the Twins rotation isn't pulling his weight. At that point, Twins decision-makers will need to weigh some difficult considerations. Do you leave these talented hurlers down on the farm, even if they're mowing down the International League, knowing the likely outcome of a call-up? There's always something to work on, always something to improve. Nothing wrong with waiting another year until they're 24 and a bit more refined, right? The problem here is that you might only be delaying the inevitable: a date with MLB's harsh learning curve. And there's another curve to think about here: aging. Pitchers generally experience their best years earlier than hitters. Velocity trends downward pretty much after age 20. If Gonsalves and Romero are healthy and throwing hard this summer, you don't necessarily want to waste a bunch of their bullets in the minors. Derek Falvey's analytically-minded pitching brain trust has access to far more data than me, and I trust them to take it seriously. It will be interesting to see how these realities weigh against a variety of other factors – a team in contention, a potentially crowded rotation scenario following returns of Ervin Santana and Trevor May, the unique ability of a stud like Romero to impact a division race if he can buck the trend and succeed immediately. Sometimes, you've gotta rush a little to get where you're going on time. Click here to view the article

So with LoMo added, here's how the Twins could maybe line up against RHP: 1. Dozier 2. Mauer 3. Buxton 4. Morrison 5. Sano 6. Rosario 7. Kepler 8. Polanco 9. Castro And they'll have tons of flexibility for subs against lefties, or late in games, with three switch-hitters on the bench. Molitor's going to have a lot to work with offensively this year.

Yep, MLB's StatCast guy Daren Willman posted Morrison's HR spray chart overlaid at Target Field. Almost all of them would've been well beyond the fence.

Kennys Vargas, we hardly knew ye. For anyone interested, here are all of Morrison's 38 home runs in 2017. You can see him launch a pair of majestic bombs at Target Field (both off lefty Hector Santiago) a bit after the 3-minute mark: https://youtu.be/XzETJ1cFmiQ

He was right on the fringe of our list. I believe a couple of us had him in the Top 20.

Over the past few weeks, we've counted down our choices for the Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects of 2018. Today, we'll recap our rankings and review in search of trends and takeaways.When recapping last year's list, I had to point out that we'd all been very spoiled by the likes of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios anchoring the front of Minnesota's prospect rankings. With all these heralded young studs graduating to the majors, the system didn't offer quite the same palpable excitement. This was reflected in national rankings: Baseball America's organizational talent rankings dropped the Twins from second in 2015 to 10th in 2016 to 22nd in 2017. Baseball Prospectus also had them 22nd last year, a freefall from seventh in '16. Well, I think we can safely say that after some positive developments, including an excellent draft aided by the pole position in each round, Minnesota's pipeline is full of intrigue, and perhaps ready to spoil us once again. BA now has the Twins back up to 12th in its rankings. BP bumped them up from 22nd to 10th. ESPN's Keith Law never soured as much as others, ranking them 11th last year, but he too views theirs as a Top 10 system in the game. We have a consensus: the collective minor-league talent in this organization is solidly above average. And given that there's so much youth and upside permeating the list, an ascent to the highest tier could be in the offing. Let's unpack what this group tells us about the franchise's future. First, here's a recap of our Top 20 Twins prospect rankings, with links and synopses: 20. Felix Jorge, RHP: Polished and near-ready, but ceiling is 4th/5th starter in MLB 19. Tyler Jay, LHP: Shook off grave health concerns in AFL, but needs to keep it going 18. Yunior Severino, 2B: Switch-hitting teenage infielder offers long-term promise with bat 17. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/3B: Stock down a bit, but big year would put him back on map 16. Ben Rortvedt, C: Quality receiver will jump into Top 10 if he can find it at the plate 15. Mitch Garver, C: Accomplished minor-leaguer must now prove bat and glove are legit 14. LaMonte Wade, OF: OBP machine must add pop to project as more than 4th OF 13. Lewin Diaz, 1B: Power potential is evident, but yet to manifest and clock's ticking 12. Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Returned strong from 2-year absence; would move fast as RP 11. Zack Littell, RHP: Lacks dominant stuff, but floor is backend SP or swingman in MLB 10. Akil Baddoo, OF: Muscle-bound teen will be a beast if he keeps developing hit tool 9. Brusdar Graterol, RHP: Blew away hitters in rookie ball last year, touching triple digits 8. Blayne Enlow, RHP: Premier curveball and projectible frame point to ace upside 7. Brent Rooker, OF: Studious batsman has makings of a middle-of-lineup thumper 6. Wander Javier, SS: Possesses tools to become a two-way star at short if it all gels 5. Alex Kirilloff, OF: Ready to remind us of his offensive capabilities after a year off 4. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP: We'll learn soon if lefty's brilliance in minors can translate 3. Nick Gordon, SS: Floor is a solid big-league regular at 2B, but ceiling in question 2. Fernando Romero, RHP: Only pitcher over 20 in MN's system with legit ace potential 1. Royce Lewis, SS: At 18, phenom offers rare combo of elite athleticism, skills, makeup POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN Catchers: 2 Infielders: 6 Outfielders: 4 RH Pitchers: 5 LH Pitchers: 3 Although the overall group has changed quite a bit since a year ago, the positional composition hasn't much. Out: shortstop Engelb Vielma. In: another one in Lewis. Out: right-handers Justin Haley, Nick Burdi, J.T. Chargois and Kohl Stewart. In: three more in Littell, Enlow and Graterol. There's a good sustaining balance in this system, but the notable area of concern is catcher. Garver will lose his prospect status with 48 more PAs in the majors. Rortvedt is 20 and raw. It would be helpful if David Banuelos, acquired from the Mariners for unneeded international cap money in a savvy December trade, could work his way onto next year's list. THE GREAT UNKNOWN One of the best parts about this collection of players is that you can really dream on it. Such youth and promise. But that's also the sticking point; so many of these kids haven't truly been challenged yet at the higher levels. Six players in this year's Top 20 are in their teens. The No. 1 pitching prospect (Romero) has thrown only 300 professional innings, while Nos. 3, 4 and 6 (Enlow, Graterol, Thorpe) have thrown fewer than that combined. Lots of young players look good in rookie ball and Single-A, only to fizzle on the advanced proving grounds thereafter. So, burnout risk weighs heavier than usual here. But when you see what guys like Lewis and Javier and Enlow are doing, at such early stages of development, it's impossible not to dream big. INJURY BUG REMOVAL? Injuries are a reality of the game. No organization avoids their pernicious sting. However, it sure feels like the Twins have been dealt an especially bad hand. Romero and Thorpe have both lost two full consecutive seasons. Kirilloff became the second Twins position player and Top-5 prospect to require Tommy John surgery within a span of three years. As recently as late last summer, it was looking like Jay – two years removed from being drafted sixth overall – might be ruined by shoulder issues. This system is about due for some good fortune with health, and not just because of a karmic swing. Pitchers don't often need TJ surgery twice, so one would hope Romero, Thorpe and Graterol are in the clear with their reconstructed elbows. (No assurances, of course.) Perennial DL denizens Burdi and Chargois (?) have moved on from the organization. Pretty much everyone on this list is presently trending in a good direction physically, and while that can change in a hurry, it's a nice feeling. PITCHER PARADE Why have the Twins been so reluctant to sign a free agent pitcher to a long-term deal? It might have something to do with the waves of young arms slated to come ashore over the next few several years. Here's when the eight pitchers on this list are expected to reach the majors, per our ETAs: 2018: Romero, Gonsalves, Littell, Jay, Jorge 2019: Thorpe 2021: Enlow, Graterol Five of Minnesota's top eight pitching prospects have realistic shots at pitching in the majors this year (Jorge already has), and even Thorpe isn't out of the question. Enlow and Graterol form a high-upside duo for the future and will surely be joined by other rising hurlers. No, these guys won't all be good right away – maybe none of them will – but they need innings to develop in the majors and that must be accounted for. FINAL THOUGHTS Not long ago, the Twins had the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. It would be no surprise to anyone paying attention if Lewis soon joined Buxton (and Mauer before them) in earning that distinction. Some would say it's hard to miss with the first or second pick in the entire draft, but plenty of teams have managed. Frankly I'd be satisfied solely with the exhilaration of getting to watch Lewis unleashed in his first full pro season, but this system offers so many more enthralling storylines. Are Romero and Gonsalves about ready to provide the internal boost this rotation badly needs? Will Kirilloff and Javier go from sleepers to sensations as they bring their vaunted games to Single-A? What might we see from the lefty arms of Thorpe and Jay if they can stay healthy for a full summer? Could Rooker make it to Minnesota this year? I can't wait to follow this group into 2018 and beyond. High-risk/high-reward would be a fair assessment, but at this time of year it's only natural to focus on the latter. Click here to view the article