Nick Nelson

As they crest what they hope will be a lengthy run of winning baseball, the Minnesota Twins are keeping their options open. There is a defined core in place – young, talented, and under control for several years to come. But the front office has surrounded this core with a remarkable number of players on short-term commitments. So in 2018, the message is clear. This franchise's long-cultivated championship vision is finally being set into motion, with most of the key pieces already in place. Anyone who wants to be part of the ride going forward will need to earn it.Change in baseball is rarely sudden. Since their all-out collapse in 2011, the Twins have been gradually working back toward their previous standing as a perennial playoff contender. The process got underway in earnest the following June, when they drafted Byron Buxton second overall. Like that of Buxton, Minnesota's rise has taken time, seeing its share of fits and starts. But it's no coincidence that just as he truly arrives – now established as a full-time major-leaguer, riding a sustained run of MVP-caliber performance down the stretch – the team appears ready to take off. With all due respect to Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier and their years of tenure, this is Buxton's team. Maybe not in the clubhouse, yet, but his ability to impact games on a nightly basis exceeds anyone on the roster and almost anyone in the league. The center fielder is, fittingly, the centerpiece. * READ: The (Temporary) Luxury of the Best Defender on Earth * But around him, the Twins have assembled a formidable collection of talent, so promising and well-rounded that it's hard not to feel optimistic about the club's chances for another trip to the playoffs. Especially when you consider this season's unique circumstances. Let's start there. Window of Opportunity The American League Central came into existence back in 1994. If you've been watching Twins baseball for that long, then I urge you to think for a moment about all the years between then and now. Over that duration, how many times can you remember three different teams in the division heading into a season where they were blatantly, transparently, unabashedly making zero effort to seriously contend? I'd argue that it's unprecedented, and in many ways unique to the present state of the game. At least one major-league exec has gone on record in suggesting more teams are competing for the 2019 No. 1 draft pick than a 2018 World Series trophy. * READ: Report From the Fort: How Weak is the AL Central? * This past offseason's free agent frigidity reflected a lack of urgency around the league. More than half of all MLB teams seem to be rebuilding in some capacity. The Twins themselves haven't entirely escaped from that designation, but they are a contender on the rise, to be sure. And they were able to strike on some incredible opportunities in this market of stagnation, adding a wealth of new player assets at stunningly low costs. The window is open, more so than we might see it again. An opportunistic front office led by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine has emphatically reacted by constructing a ballclub that appears up to the challenge. Partially by savvy maneuvering, and partially by fortunate inheritance, they've put the pieces in place. A Brain Trust With Brains Worth Trusting The impact of Falvey's behind-the-scenes reconfigurations is difficult to quantify in terms of wins and losses, but the improvement is unmistakable. In 2017, newly obtained hitting coach James Rowson and defensive guru Jeff Pickler both garnered rave reviews as key additions in the dugout. They left their imprints, on an offense that saw several young hitters take big steps forward, and a fielding unit that went from 29th to 12th in defensive efficiency. These successful hires inspire confidence in the selections of Garvin Alston and Derek Shelton, joining this season as pitching coach and bench coach. * READ: One Year In, Rebuilt Twins Front Office is Crushing It * In general, Falvey and his cohorts have shown a keen ability to identify sharp new-age thinkers and install them in roles where their intelligence and expertise can be most useful. Since taking over as chief baseball officer, Falvey has added Harvard grad Daniel Adler as director of baseball operations, as well as 27-year-old wunderkind Jeremy Zoll as director of minor-league operations, while populating the lower ranks with several reputed brainy analysts. Lest you think the human element is being overlooked, these additions have been balanced by infusions of practical experience and perspective. Michael Cuddyer, Torii Hunter, LaTroy Hawkins and most recently Justin Morneau were all brought on as recognizable and relatable special assistants. Jeremy Hefner, who was pitching in a Mets uniform less than five years ago, now serves as an advance scout and conduit of information from baseball research to the players on the field. The advancements in terms of organizational infrastructure under Falvey's leadership have been monumental. After about 16 months of gradually layering in handpicked candidates, the franchise's personnel makeup is finally coming to resemble what Falvey initially envisioned, and sold Twins ownership on. From the executive suite down to the coaching staff, pieces are in place to support a roster boasting enough talent, depth and experience to make some serious noise. Built to Win Paul Molitor has been on a nice run lately. After entering 2017 in the dreaded position of lame duck manager with new bosses, he reversed his dwindling fortunes with an exemplary year at the helm. Molitor led an upstart group to the postseason, was voted AL Manager of the Year, and secured a three-year contract. Now, the front office has gifted him with an offseason windfall, supplementing a roster that was already primed to win with a healthy influx. The club's uncharacteristic free agent shopping spree pushed payroll to a record $130 million, and down in Fort Myers the vibe was clear: expectations for this team are very high. This brings added pressure for Molitor, but I'm sure he'll happily take it in tandem with the bounty of talent he's setting out with in Baltimore on Thursday. You can argue that every position on the 2018 Twins is a strength – though admittedly, you have to strain a little on the pitching side. (Click on any position below to find a full in-depth analysis.) CATCHER: Reliably solid veteran Jason Castro pairs with rookie Mitch Garver, coming off a monster season in Triple-A and carrying plenty of confidence, to form a potentially formidable platoon. FIRST BASE: Joe Mauer sure looks to be back on his game. While even his optimal production won't stand out relative to peers at first, it certainly has value in this lineup, and he's as good as it gets with the glove. SECOND BASE: Over the past two years, Brian Dozier has been one of the best hitters in baseball. That shows no signs of changing as the pending free agent stares down a contract year with off-the-charts motivation. THIRD BASE: Miguel Sano did enough at the plate and in the field this spring to mostly silence concerns around his injury recovery and physical state. He still has much to prove, but the 2017 All-Star's game-changing ability should not be downplayed. SHORTSTOP: Losing Jorge Polanco to an 80-game suspension hurts, no doubt, but the Twins are fortunate in being able to fall back on the powerful Eduardo Escobar and the intriguing Ehire Adrianza in his stead. Oh, and their No. 3 prospect, verging on MLB-ready, plays the position (ostensibly). LEFT FIELD: Many Twins hitters seemed to turn a corner in 2017. No one did it quite as convincingly as Eddie Rosario, whose newfound selectiveness at the plate yielded big returns (27 HR, 78 RBI, .830 OPS). So long as the K/BB trends stick, Rosario should be one of the league's top producers in left field. If his approach evolves further? Look out. CENTER FIELD: Staying healthy and maintaining at the level he settled into last year after April would make Byron Buxton one of the biggest individual difference-makers in the major leagues: a hit-robbing, base-swiping, power-hitting force. RIGHT FIELD: Max Kepler was a below-average but respectable hitter last year. With his picturesque swing, innate athleticism and history of adjustments, it feels almost inevitable that the 25-year-old will find another gear. If so, this will be one of the game's most fearsome outfields. DESIGNATED HITTER: This spot didn't produce much thunder for the 2017 Twins, who ranked eighth out of 15 AL teams in OPS at the position. Logan Morrison should help with that; last year he outhomered the collective DH units for every team except Seattle (Nelson Cruz). STARTING PITCHING: It's a stretch to call this position an area of strength, but the late additions of Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn shored up the rotation significantly, and there are enough quality reinforcements in the pipeline (Ervin Santana, Adalberto Mejia, Trevor May, Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves, to name a few) that it's not so easy to call it a weakness anymore. RELIEF PITCHING: If last year was any indication, contact-heavy bullpens don't cut it in today's MLB. Minnesota's front office has progressively taken steps to power up the pen, populating it with proven strikeout pitchers. The new-look relief corps could prove to be the most imposing to come along for the Twins in more than decade. I can't ever remember such a complete roster out of the gates for this team. Everywhere you look, pieces in place. From Total System Failure To All Systems Go The Twins made history by going from 103 losses in 2016 to a wild-card berth in 2017, and their momentum only continues to grow as we head into the new campaign. At a time where lackadaisical malaise has gripped many of the league's clubs, Falvey and Levine have built a culture of extreme urgency. Sure, the two top execs can afford to be patient – they've got their vital young core locked in, plus a prodigious minor-league pipeline – but it's a different vibe in the locker room. * READ: Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects of 2018 * Of the 25 men on Minnesota's Opening Day active roster, only Jason Castro and Addison Reed have guaranteed contracts for 2019. Whether playing for a free agency payday or merely to build stock in a young career, almost every player on the Twins roster enters this season with enormous personal stakes. One could argue this doesn't create a particularly comfortable environment. But then, one can also argue that "comfort" became one of the central issues for this club during the latter years of Terry Ryan's regime. For the 2018 Twins, complacency is not an option. While all these pieces are now in place, the vast majority of them can are interchangeable. ~~~ This is setting up to be a truly exciting season. Make sure you're following along with Twins Daily all summer by following us on Twitter and Facebook, as well as entering your email address below to receive our newsletter! Click here to view the article

We wrap up our position-by-position breakdown of Minnesota's organizational depth today with an examination of relief pitching. I'm excited to dig in here because this reinvented bullpen is a fascinating unit for the Twins, characterized by high-profile additions, unpredictable youth, and bold gambles.Projected Relievers: Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Ryan Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers, Gabriel Moya, Tyler Kinley Depth: Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Jake Reed, Zack Jones Prospects: Tyler Jay, Dietrich Enns, Mason Melotakis, Tyler Watson, Tom Hackimer THE GOOD Brandon Kintzler and Matt Belisle, who respectably held down closing duties for the 2017 team (albeit in unimposing fashion), are out. Replacing them are righties Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed, who better fit the traditional mold of dominant late-inning arms. Minnesota has also substantially upgraded its left-handed relief foundation from a year ago, replacing Craig Breslow and Buddy Boshers with the vastly higher upside of Zach Duke and Gabriel Moya, while retaining steady specialist Taylor Rogers. Though it lacks a true long reliever, the Twins bullpen is well constructed, giving Paul Molitor a diverse set of potent options leading up to one of the game's most experienced closers. The quality of this group is such that Tyler Duffey (3.72 FIP in 2017) and Alan Busenitz (1.99 ERA in 28 appearances) were sent down to open the season, and few could quibble with the decisions. Possessing power relievers who can come in and strike people out is critical in today's MLB. Last year's top five finishers in bullpen K/9 were the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Indians and Cubs. They were also five of the last teams standing. Minnesota, at 7.7 K/9, ranked 29th out of 30. The eight relievers slated to comprise this year's bullpen combined to average about a strikeout per inning in 2017. That calculation doesn't include Tyler Kinley, who of course didn't pitch in the majors but did average 12.2 K/9 in Single-A and Double-A, and barely accounts for Moya, who has averaged 11.5 K/9 in the minors. This is suddenly a bullpen filled with strikeout pitchers — a remarkable bit of roster wizardly, progressively carried out by the new front office. The first guys in line as call-ups or replacements? Duffey, who struck out 67 over 71 frames in his first season as a reliever. Busenitz, who brings upper-90s heat and has averaged 9.2 K/9 in Triple-A. And finally: John Curtiss, an unheralded prospect who warrants intrigue specifically because of his tremendous ability to miss bats in the Twins system, where he's struck out 245 over 195 frames (including 33 K over 24 IP at Triple-A). So, to summarize all that: Minnesota now has the indisputable makings of a power pen, even if things go amiss with the first wave. That's a status they really haven't been able to claim since 2006, when a unit led by Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon and Pat Neshek led the AL in bullpen K/9. That team also won 96 games – most in the franchise's modern history. Coincidence? THE BAD While they've equipped themselves with a bunch of capable new arms, the Twins have also let several promising ones get away. Luke Bard was snagged by the Angels in the Rule 5 draft and it appears he'll stick on their 25-man roster. If his massive improvements in Double-A and Triple-A last year prove legit, he could potentially be closing games for the Halos by midseason. Nick Burdi was also fished away in the Rule 5, by Pittsburgh, and he'll be stashed on the 60-day DL until completing Tommy John recovery. In late February, the Twins lost J.T. Chargois when we was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers. He is in line to make their team. Bard, Burdi and Chargois were all highly drafted stud relievers out of college with premium gas, and despite injury setbacks, each was on track to make an impact in the majors. Now, they're gone, lost to other organizations in exchange for nothing, because the Twins didn't deem them worth protecting. To be sure, these were measured, rational risks. Given the checkered health histories at play here, a reluctance to plan around these volatile fireballers is quite understandable. But elevating other pitchers as priorities – most notably, the Rule 5 pick Kinley, a relatively unaccomplished minor-leaguer who has occupied a 40-man spot since December – does have a cost. We'll have to wait and see whether the Twins made the right calls with all this shuffling, but there's a reasonable case to be made for every pitcher on the roster deserving his spot. And when it comes to evaluating hurlers, Derek Falvey and his crew have earned some trust. THE BOTTOM LINE The 2018 Twins bullpen will have a very different look, both because it features more new arrivals than incumbents and because it might be the most K-heavy unit Minnesota has assembled in over a decade. The front office chose to wager on its free agents and its Rule 5 selection rather than some homegrown arms that many of us expected to play a role at the big-league level. I'll be curious to see if their altogether logical gambles pan out. If so, the Twins will have shored up one of their most persistent disadvantages from years past. ~~~ Catch up on the rest of the series: Twins Daily Position Analysis: Catcher Twins Daily Position Analysis: First Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Second Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Third Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins Daily Position Analysis: Left Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Center Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Right Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Twins Daily Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher Click here to view the article

All good points. I guess the real takeaway is this: Santana might not have primarily driven the improvement, but him delivering a quarter of the team's SP innings with a 3.28 ERA was a huge reason for whatever level of success they had in 2017. This year they won't be able to count on that again, both because he'll throw fewer innings and he's extremely unlikely to replicate that performance upon returning. So the statement laid out in the 2nd-to-last paragraph fully stands.

True, but Santana also threw 30 more innings than in 2016, with 5 complete games and 3 shutouts. He carried a big portion of the load. If not for his impact the staff would've ranked near the bottom of the league again.

It's been said often but bears repeating: building a rotation isn't about five starting pitchers. Sure, you want five good ones lined up at the top. But in 2016 the Twins had eight different hurlers make 10-plus starts. Last year 16 guys got the nod at least once. Sixteen! It's been common practice for Minnesota of late: inevitable injuries and underperformance leading to flimsy depth being tested. With underequipped fill-ins unable to answer the call, the Twins have gone through endless cycles of short-lived mediocrity. Injuries and underperformance remain inevitable here in 2018, as ever, but finally the front office has built up enough depth to where a 'next man up' philosophy doesn't sound all that foreboding. In fact, right now it's actually a little exciting.Projected Starting 5: Jose Berrios, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes Reinforcements: Ervin Santana, Adalberto Mejia, Trevor May, Aaron Slegers, Felix Jorge Prospects: Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Blayne Enlow, Brusdar Graterol THE GOOD Not so long ago, things looked quite grim for the Twins rotation. The club struck out in its pursuit of Yu Darvish and as spring training approached they hadn't added anyone of consequence. Then Ervin Santana's finger surgery was announced. Then... they signed Anibal Sanchez. It was a low point. But it didn't last long. Days after reaching agreement with Sanchez, the Twins pulled off a trade with Tampa to acquire Jake Odorizzi. Three weeks later they signed Lance Lynn, one of the top names on the free agent market. By the time the Twins cut loose Sanchez, less than a month after signing him to a non-guaranteed contract, their starting unit had been reshaped. That low point felt like a distant memory. With Odorizzi and Lynn in the fold, the rotation is solidified, and it features a revitalizing medley of established quantities, intriguing youth, and pending reinforcements. With Jose Berrios looking ready to take the next step, the Twins have a potential frontline type on hand, even with Santana set to miss the first month-plus. Odorizzi, Lynn and Kyle Gibson look more like mid-rotation cogs, but fairly reliable ones (your mileage may vary on Gibson). Phil Hughes currently slots in at No. 5 and is tough to trust, but he can be hidden for much of April and won't have a long leash. The rotation out of the gates doesn't boast a ton of upside beyond Berrios, but we find much more of that in the ensuing waves. Santana was of course Minnesota's top starter in 2017, and among the best in the American League. He should enter the picture sometime in May. Adalberto Mejia made 21 starts for the Twins as a 23/24-year-old in 2017 and showed he was capable. Trevor May has the stuff to make a real impact and will have plenty of time to sharpen up ahead of his June ETA. Those three alone provide more viable rotation depth than the Twins have had in years. Even pitchers further down the board like Aaron Slegers and Felix Jorge are more appealing as MLB-ready spot start candidates than the Quad-A retreads that have typically been available over the past decade. And then you start digging into the top prospects. Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves, the organization's two best young arms that have yet to reach the majors, could be ready at any time. Zack Littell isn't far behind, nor is Lewis Thorpe. And promising teenagers Blayne Enlow and Brusdar Graterol figure to rise quickly. The Twins have come a long, long way since 2016 when their rotation was an abominable disaster. There is enough depth, now and going forward, that it's hard to see things devolving to that point or anywhere close again. THE BAD While there are enough proven starters and legit prospects to inspire confidence that things won't unravel completely, the Twins still lack a credible ace, and are short on the types of overpowering arms you'd want to trot out in a playoff series. Berrios showed major improvement last year but still profiled as more of a No. 3 on a championship contender. Lynn posted a 4.82 FIP in St. Louis. Odorizzi posted a 5.43 FIP in Tampa. We all recall how Gibson looked for much of the summer. And Hughes the finesse pitcher will be hard-pressed to get MLB hitters out consistently. You can dream on this rotation but objectively it looks rather mediocre. The impending returns of Santana and May are somewhat heartening, but it could be June before either is ready. Will the Twins have dug a deep hole by then? The team is sort of in a transitional period right now, with several veteran starters on short-term commitments and several prospects still needing to take their first lumps in the majors. Although Minnesota is likely on the verge of a true starting pitching breakthrough, it might realistically be another year away. THE BOTTOM LINE From 2016 to 2017, the Twins went from 30th to 19th in starting pitcher ERA, which is a hell of a step forward. But that was reliant on a Herculean effort from Santana, who is poised to miss a significant portion of the 2018 season. In order to take another step and graduate to the top half of the league, Minnesota will need some other players to find that extra gear like Erv did last year. They'll also need some young hurlers to join in and find immediate success, which has been rare. The pipeline is as strong and ripe as it's been in over a decade, but we still may need to wait just a little bit longer before it bears the fruit that can push this franchise over the hump. ~~~ Catch up on the rest of the series: Twins Daily Position Analysis: Catcher Twins Daily Position Analysis: First Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Second Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Third Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins Daily Position Analysis: Left Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Center Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Right Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Click here to view the article

Thanks for putting this together, Tom. I'm going to make it a point to catch up on everything here I haven't read before Opening Day. Also, seeing it listed here, I'd almost forgotten about this piece and all the angst it raised in the comments. Doesn't seem so ridiculous now, does it? For all the consternation we're seeing right now, it's important to keep in mind that Minnesota still has plenty of options left on the table for addressing its rotation. They have money to spend and prospects to dangle in trade talks. They won't get a pitcher as good as Darvish, probably, but they can still find a decisive upgrade who gives them more flexibility. Within a month, they had traded for Odorizzi and signed Lynn. Just calling this out as a reminder (even to myself) not to overreact when a couple things break wrong.

Ban the DH! All hail the DH! Whatever your stance on the matter, as an American League club Minnesota has the luxury of a designated hitter. And this year, they hope to take advantage for the first time since a Hall of Fame slugger helped propel them to the postseason in Target Field's inaugural season.Projected Starter: Logan Morrison Likely Backup: Robbie Grossman Depth: Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Eduardo Escobar Prospects: Lewin Diaz, Brent Rooker, Zander Wiel THE GOOD In 2010, Jim Thome started 78 games for the Twins at DH, and as we all know, it went really well. Since then, the position has been a blur of changing faces and failed experiments. From 2012 through 2017, no single player made even 70 starts in a season at DH for the Twins. The position mostly functioned as a revolving door, with folks like Ryan Doumit, Kendrys Morales, ByungHo Park and Robbie Grossman passing through. No one made much of an impression, except for Miguel Sano who soon moved to third (after a – *shudder* – detour in right). Can Logan Morrison end the cycle? Minnesota's front office is sure hoping so. They pounced on the slugging lefty in late February at a bargain too good to pass up. So instead of the usual endless carousel, the Twins figure to have a steady fixture at the spot for the first time in eight years. If he can approximate last season's production, Morrison will be an impact addition to the middle of the lineup, and his presence could greatly ease the loss of Jorge Polanco to suspension (LoMo's .868 OPS in 2017 was almost identical to Polanco's .870 mark in the second half when he took off). If Morrison regresses to his career norm – .245/.330/.433 – he'll be less of an asset, but it'd still be more production than Minnesota got from the DH cohort led by Grossman in 2017 (.237/.328/.383). Should Morrison go down for any reason the Twins would simply revert to their original plan at DH, which might've looked awfully similar to last year's distribution – minus the 30 starts for Kennys Vargas. In terms of pipeline, Lewin Diaz profiles as the heir apparent right now. If his bat takes a step forward, he could be in the DH picture as soon as next year. But as is the nature of this position, any number of good hitters who can't cut it defensively may end up in the mix. THE BAD Last week the Twins designated Vargas for assignment, and on Thursday he officially departed the organization when Cincinnati claimed him off waivers. It's an odd fit given that the Reds can't use him at DH and already have a superstar first baseman entrenched in Joey Votto. Alas, Minnesota lost a piece of its depth with the move. It would've been nice if Vargas had slipped through waivers to remain on hand in Triple-A. But, all things considered, the Twins should be feeling pretty good at designated hitter. There is no shortage of bats in the picture for this club, so theoretically, the position shouldn't be an issue any time soon. We'll see. THE BOTTOM LINE As currently constructed, the Twins have quite a few hitters, so finding one to designate on any given night shouldn't be an issue. The same is true going forward until further notice. It's hard to imagine this team lacking for players who can step up and swing the lumber at any time in the near future. The biggest question is if and when they'll need to set aside this spot for Sano. Hopefully not for a while, because they really need him to hold down third. ~~~ Catch up on the rest of the series: Twins Daily Position Analysis: Catcher Twins Daily Position Analysis: First Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Second Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Third Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins Daily Position Analysis: Left Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Center Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Right Field Click here to view the article

Molitor mentioned when I was down there that he'd like to start lengthening Kinley out a bit, and they had him pitch into a third inning on Monday against Pittsburgh, so that probably tells us something. I don't really see the wisdom of trying to turn max-effort fireballers into long relievers personally, struck me as a misstep with Tonkin. But they're a bit short on options for that utility at the moment. There's definitely a lot of enthusiasm around the club regarding Kinley's velocity, especially that hard slider.

The sense I got in camp is that Kinley will make the team. Duffey and Busenitz being optioned today just about seals it.

^ Good research. At this point they're both young enough and the sample sizes are small enough that I'm not inclined to put a ton of stock into the data, but it does seem to match the eye test. Rosario in general for whatever reason doesn't seem to get the most out of his solid speed. Questionable jumps/routes in the OF and a fairly poor steal rate on the bases.

Is Max Kepler a full-time player, or destined for platoon duty? The jury is still out, and while he has time yet to prove his worth against left-handed pitchers, the Twins need to start thinking seriously about their course of action if he is unable to do so.Projected Starter: Max Kepler Likely Backup: Robbie Grossman Depth: Eddie Rosario, Jake Cave, Zack Granite Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Akil Baddoo, Jaylin Davis THE GOOD Following a strong rookie showing as a 23-year-old in 2016, Kepler maintained in his sophomore season. Holding down right field from start to finish, he posted a .243/.312/.425 slash line with 19 home runs, 32 doubles, and six steals on seven tries. Sure, stagnation isn't great – Kepler's 96 OPS+ in 2017 was identical to his 2016 mark – but it's much better than regression, which is common for a second-year big-leaguer. The last time Kepler turned in consecutive seasons with such similar production was 2013 and 2014, between two levels of A-ball. At age 20 he registered a .736 OPS in Cedar Rapids, and he followed with a .726 OPS in Ft. Myers at 21. The next year was his big breakout, when Kepler put himself on the top prospect map by slashing a ridiculous .322/.416/.531 at Chattanooga to earn Southern League MVP honors. From an optimist's standpoint, the outfielder's minor-league track record could also be instructive with regard to his progression against left-handed pitching. No, he was not good in 2017 – and we'll get to that shortly – but Kepler also endured massive struggles against southpaws in Low-A (.365 OPS with the Kernels) before taking a step forward at High-A (.691 OPS with the Miracle) and turning the corner at Double-A (.893 OPS with the Lookouts). Kepler has always been a bit of a gradual adjuster; perfectly understandable for a player who signed at age 16 out of a continent that rarely produces major leaguers. He has barely crested 1,000 plate appearances in the majors, and turned 25 in February. His history points to there remaining growth potential, both against same-sided pitchers and offensively in general. On the defensive side, Kepler did make some significant strides last year. After a mistake-prone rookie campaign he cut down his error total from seven to two, while also improving his range metrics. Kepler even made eight starts in center and held his own. If he were to go down with an injury, Robbie Grossman would be in line to take over. Eddie Rosario could also move over from left, with Grossman or Zack Granite taking over in left. Some argue that Kepler and Rosario are best suited for a position swap, since Eddie has a better arm and covers less ground, but the difference isn't huge. In the larger scheme, the Twins have one bona fide right field prospect in their system, and at a glance you might confuse him with the current MLB occupant. Alex Kirilloff has an athletic build and sweet lefty swing that are both remindful of Kepler, though scouts see more power in his frame, which is noticeably bigger this spring after a year off due to Tommy John surgery. We'll be curious to see how Twins Daily's No. 5 prospect fares in his return to the field this year. But even with a strong showing back on the scene, Kirilloff is at least two or three years away, so the position belongs to Kepler for the foreseeable future. THE BAD Will it belong only to Kepler? Unless he can turn around his abysmal performance against lefties, the 25-year-old could be in line for a timeshare. Kepler did not fare well against portsiders as a rookie, hitting .203/.273/.322 in 2016, but last year it really got ugly as he dropped to .152/.213/.240. That kind of ineptitude will make it difficult to write his name in against lefty starters, potentially leading to a reduction in his 568 plate appearances from 2017. MLB right fielders posted a .798 OPS last season, second-highest of any position behind first base. That places Kepler, who finished at .737, well below average. If you could keep his .828 OPS versus righties, and plug in a platoon mate, you'd have yourself an admirable solution at the position. But unfortunately, the Twins lack viable candidates for such a setup at the moment. Grossman, a switch-hitter and Kepler's primary backup, went just .238/.376/.320 versus southpaws last year, though he did put up a .994 OPS against them in 2016. Fellow backup options Jake Cave and Zack Granite also swing from the left side, as does near-ready prospect LaMonte Wade. Ideally, the Twins would have a lefty-mashing corner outfielder on hand, but they didn't add one and perhaps that is by design. Kepler still has a chance to be a quality everyday player. He just may not have a ton more time to prove it. THE BOTTOM LINE Extreme platoon splits throw his ongoing status as an everyday player into question, but Kepler is a good outfielder whose ability to do damage against right-handers is not in doubt. He should get at least one more season to show he can right the ship against southpaws, and there's ample reason to believe he will. Even if the Twins end up adding a righty swinger to complement him at some point, Kepler will get the lion's share of playing time. He combines with Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton to give Minnesota a trio capable of sticking together for the next several years. Few franchises in the game can boast a better all-around outlook in the outfield. ~~~ Catch up on the rest of the series: Twins Daily Position Analysis: Catcher Twins Daily Position Analysis: First Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Second Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Third Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins Daily Position Analysis: Left Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Center Field Click here to view the article

It comes down to this. What we saw last year was Escobar at his absolute offensive ceiling... we can all agree with that, right? And his defense at short clearly lags way behind Adrianza. Well, Escobar is one year removed from being a worse hitter than Adrianza, and he’s a year older. How far does the offensive gap need to close before they pass each other in value?

What Escobar was billed as 5-6 years ago isn't especially relevant today. He's not the same player at 29 as he was at 23 when the Twins got him. I'm mystified that you think those articles you linked are pertinent in 2018. Don't get me wrong, I like Esco, and argued in the past that he should get more of a shot at SS. But things change. He played poorly at the position in his most recent extensive time, and as a result the Twins became less comfortable using him there. That's why he made only a dozen starts at SS last year despite Polanco's massive struggles for much of the first half, and why I suspect Adrianza will get a lot of chances in Jorge's absence. We're all aware that Adrianza does not have a strong offensive track record, and that he needs to start driving the ball with more authority. But his K-rate would rank among the lowest in the majors and he's got some palpable momentum at the plate for probably the first time in his career. It's reasonable to dream a little.

He has batted over .300 in three different stints at Triple-A, dating back to when he was 23. All just coincidence and luck, eh? I don't think you'll find a single person on the ground or in the scouting community who agrees with this assessment. Escobar is sure-handed and capable but lacks the range and arm to be any kind of asset at short.

Adrianza has slugged .382 in 250 PA over his past two seasons in majors. Simply continuing at that level would probably make him at least a borderline starting candidate. No one is saying he's gonna start launching 20 homers a year.

If you played ball growing up, there's a good chance at least one of your coaches invoked the story of Wally Pipp. The legend goes like this: Back in 1925, Pipp asked for a day off due to a minor headache. Yankees skipper Miller Huggins acquiesced. The guy who started in Pipp's place went by the name of Lou Gehrig, and would take a hold of the position with an iron grip for the next 13 years, starting 2,130 consecutive games. Pipp, meanwhile, faded from relevance. The story as it's told is not actually accurate, but that doesn't stop it from being repeated ad nauseum by mentors and instructors – the ultimate cautionary tale. In the big leagues, someone is always behind you, angling for your job. At this level, you cannot afford to lapse.On Sunday, the Minnesota Twins and their fans were stunned to learn that Jorge Polanco, fresh off a breakout finish in 2017, was being hit with an 80-game suspension after testing positive for the steroid stanozolol. Not only will he miss the first half of the season, but the shortstop will also be unavailable for a theoretical playoff run. It's a crushing blow after Polanco's offensive emergence in August and September last year helped carry the Twins to a postseason berth. He batted either third or fourth in all but two of Minnesota's final 33 games. The switch-hitter figured to provide thump near the bottom of the lineup this season, as well as insurance for injury or regression near the top. Now, the Twins must plan around life without him. It's a huge bummer. But for Ehire Adrianza, the unfortunate situation presents a huge opportunity. The 28-year-old was penciled in as a utility man destined for sporadic playing time, but now could seize a regular job. This would prove very advantageous for both him and the club. Adrianza's lackluster offensive performance in parts of four seasons with the Giants landed him on waivers, where Minnesota was able to claim him last spring. His outstanding glove at short has kept getting him chances in the majors, but during his tenure in San Francisco, Adrianza just didn't hit enough to make himself an asset. Then again, he rarely received steady at-bats for any length of time. And Adrianza's career .303/.385/.412 line in 115 games at Triple-A is hard to ignore, even if it was accrued in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. In his first season with the Twins, Adrianza received a career-high 186 plate appearances, and posted a career-high .707 OPS. Like Polanco, he's a switch-hitter who rarely strikes out. And while his light production in the past had cast him in a certain mold, Adrianza took steps to alter his reputation last summer. "I was thinking 'Good field, no-hit shortstop' when we got him," Molitor said early in camp. "I was wrong. He hit the ball hard quite a bit. And he looks stronger this spring." Despite making a good first impression, Adrianza had little shot at becoming a lineup fixture this year. Until now. The Twins don't seem to love Eduardo Escobar's defense at shortstop, the infield's most vital position, so they could turn to Adrianza often. Especially if he and hitting coach James Rowson can build upon last year's progress at the plate. Adrianza's defensive aptitude is such that if he can establish himself as a moderately above-average hitter – last year the average OPS for an MLB shortstop was .735, so that bar is not terribly high – he suddenly turns into a very valuable regular. Whether that's for the Twins or somebody else, it figures to benefit the club. If Adrianza can back up his encouraging 2017, as well as his promising 2018 spring (he's slashing .294/.333/.529 in Graprefruit play), Polanco could return to a very different landscape at the shortstop position in July. Situations like this are exactly why the myth of Wally Pipp's plight continue to endure. Click here to view the article

Statcast technology was introduced to all 30 major-league stadiums in 2015, the very same year Byron Buxton made his MLB debut. It's our coolest new toy and already Buxton is threatening to break the dang thing, pushing past hypothetical human limits with his mind-boggling athleticism. But in all seriousness, we are awfully lucky that Buck has arrived in an era where we can – for the first time – tangibly measure the utterly ridiculous things he does on a baseball field.Projected Starter: Byron Buxton Likely Backup: Max Kepler Depth: Eddie Rosario, Zack Granite, Jake Cave Prospects: Granite, LaMonte Wade, Royce Lewis THE GOOD On August 18th of last season, Buxton drove a high fly ball off the right-center field wall at Target Field and sprinted around the bases for an inside the park homer. His total time from home-to-home registered at 13.85 seconds – a new Statcast record that broke (of course) his own, set the previous October. Last year Buxton put up the fastest sprint speed in the majors, which comes into play both on the base paths and in the outfield. At 24, he doesn't seem to be at risk of losing a step anytime too soon. And in fact, Buck's foot speed continues to play up more and more as he improves his reads on fly balls and opposing pitchers. Of course, while Buxton's defense has been elite from the start, his offensive game has been held back by a lack of contact. Strikeout issues carried over into the early part of 2017, when the outfielder dug a deep hole with his voluminous whiffs in April. But he consistently cut down his strikeout rate each month, to the point where he was contributing at an MVP-caliber level down the stretch. Buxton's .298/.342/.541 slash line in August and September, coupled with a perfect 13-for-13 rate on steals and unsurpassed defensive impact, made him arguably the most transformative single player in the game during that stretch. He was instrumental in Minnesota's unlikely sprint to the postseason, earning him some down-ballot AL MVP love (he finished 18th in the balloting). For a guy who was batting .195 with a .550 OPS at the end of June, causing some to wonder if additional minor-league seasoning might be required, that's flat-out incredible. The idea of getting second-half Buxton for a full year in 2018 is exhilarating. The way he can help a pitching staff and propel an offense is unique within today's game. Still only realizing his near-limitless potential, Buxton is the organization's most valuable asset, and fortunately the front office seems fully aware. He's the only young core player with whom they are known to have engaged in extension negotiations. Hopefully they'll get something done and lock him as the long-term centerpiece he should be. I believe they will. But doing so would not eliminate the importance of quality depth behind him. THE BAD There are basically two concerns around Buxton. The first is that he'll relapse and revert to his whiffing ways – certainly possible, but unlikely given the progressive and convincing nature of his evolution in this regard. The second is that the speedster's all-out playing style will lead to injuries, and that's a very legitimate apprehension. I wrote about this last spring when I was in camp, and while Buxton went on to mostly to buck his trend (yes yes pun intended) of missing significant chunks of time – save for a two-week hiatus in July due to a groin strain – his season did end with a hazardous crash into Yankee Stadium's outfield wall. Injuries are always a reality of the game, and in Buxton's case no one could deny that the risk is heightened. He's obviously irreplaceable but the Twins are well served to put multiple solid contingencies in place. Perhaps that factored in to a trade they made on Friday. The Twins acquired outfielder Jake Cave from the Yankees and designated Kennys Vargas for assignment in the process. Although Cave profiles "best in the corners," according to chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, he has mostly played center in the minors and is considered capable there, giving Minnesota another option. His first day after coming over, Cave started in center against Pittsburgh in Bradenton on Saturday. But Zack Granite is clearly contingency No. 1. He was the regular in center while Buxton was sidelined by his groin strain after the All-Star break, and played well. Granite is the only natural center fielder in line behind Buxton at this point. Max Kepler or Eddie Rosario could fill in as short-term plugs but neither is really suited for the position for an extended stretch. Prospect LaMonte Wade, much like Cave, has played primarily center in the minors but will likely end up in a corner. The next impact center fielder in the pipeline might actually be Royce Lewis, the 2017 first overall pick who's currently playing shortstop but could well switch positions as he rises through the ranks. His speed and instinctual savvy would surely make him an asset out there. But if Buxton sticks around for another seven or eight years, he's not getting supplanted by anyone. Should Lewis move off short, I'm sure the Twins won't have much trouble finding something to do with him. THE BOTTOM LINE Buxton is already the best defensive center fielder in baseball and could be fast on his way to challenging Mike Trout as the best all-around. He produced 3.5 WAR in a 2017 campaign marred by a brutal first half at the plate, so that almost feels like his floor going forward if healthy. Granted, that's a bigger "if" than you get with most players in the game today, but the Twins will live with the risks inherent to his aggressive and spectacular playing style. They've got multiple short-term fallback options and hopefully won't be seeking a permanent replacement for a long, long time. ~~~ Catch up on the rest of the series: Twins Daily Position Analysis: Catcher Twins Daily Position Analysis: First Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Second Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Third Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins Daily Position Analysis: Left Field Click here to view the article

FT. MYERS – Around this time last year, it was reasonable to feel a little alarmed about Jose Berrios. Following a tumultuous rookie campaign, the brightest hope for Minnesota's rotation was once again struggling to command his dazzling repertoire. His spring ended with a thud when he started for Rochester in an exhibition against the big-league club on March 31st and allowed five walks with an HBP in just 2 1/3 innings. But of course, Berrios was still only 22 – a fact easily forgotten due to his meteoric rise through the minors. His growth over the past 12 months has been clearly on display this spring.Heading into his fourth start of the spring on Friday afternoon, Berrios had yet to allow a single walk in Grapefruit League action. He broke that streak against Tampa Bay, issuing a pair of free passes in the second inning of a game where his final line failed to reflect his performance. Berrios got through only 3 2/3 innings on 72 pitches while allowing three runs, but two were unearned and the other should've been; Brandon Snyder scored after tripling to lead off the fourth when left fielder Chris Heisey lost the ball in the sun. That was one of four outs that Minnesota squandered behind the starter. Despite all that, Berrios notched four strikeouts and came away from the outing with a 1.64 ERA. Hard work appears to be paying off for one of the most relentless grinders in the organization. He's noticed a difference compared to last spring. "I feel great. I feel better," he said. "Every year I get to know my body and myself more." Indeed, by all appearances, Berrios has smoothed his mechanics and improved his fastball command – an utmost priority for setting up his physics-bending secondary offerings. Paul Molitor believes the best is yet to come in that regard. "He's throwing fairly well, but I still think that we're going to see a little bit more sharpness command-wise from him," the manager said after Friday's game. Berrios is a crucial component in Minnesota's starting pitching equation, and not just because of his youth and a ceiling that exceeds that of all other players currently in the rotation mix. (Though that's huge.) His particular skill set fits well on this team. Despite some improvements with missing bats in 2017, Twins pitchers still ranked near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. Berrios led all Minnesota starters in K-rate at 22.6%, and did so as one of the youngest starters in the majors, still learning how to fully harness his stuff. There is also this: Berrios, like the rotation's elder statesman Ervin Santana, is a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher. But whereas this has often proven a weakness for Santana, leading to many of those flies leaving the yard, Berrios has generally been able to keep them in the park. In the minors, the former first-round pick out of Puerto Rico allowed only 35 home runs in almost 600 innings while coming up through the minors. During his time in the majors last year, Berrios was taken deep just 15 times in 145 frames – good for a 0.9 HR/9 rate that ranked as the lowest among all Twins starters, and in fact 12th-lowest among all MLB starters (140+ IP). Pretty impressive in a season where long balls were way up across the league. With Minnesota boasting arguably the best outfield defense in the game, getting a high percentage of hitters to put the ball in the air, but inside the fence, is a very good recipe. Especially when you're putting away so many guys without needing to rely on your fielders at all. If Berrios is staying in the zone and hitting his spots, he's going to be a force. I have zero doubt. And as he enters his first full season as a big-leaguer, there are plenty of signs that he is poised to do just that. Click here to view the article