Nick Nelson

We're about to find out. When Derek Falvey was hired to run Minnesota's baseball ops, he brought with him a rep as a pitching guru, partially responsible for constructing the enviable staff in Cleveland. That group, of course, wasn't assembled through big-money free agent signings, but through savvy trades and superior development strategies. So it comes as no surprise that he's attempting to apply this same model with the Twins. It's why he was hired.While Ivy League educations are now becoming the norm at 1 Twins Way, it didn't take a Harvard grad to see that Minnesota needed to seriously upgrade its rotation for 2018. Opinions differ on the seriousness of their attempts, but the Twins did take a shot at top names like Yu Darvish and Chris Archer this offseason. When they deemed the threshold for acquiring these potential aces too high for their liking, Falvey and GM Thad Levine lowered their gaze substantially and pivoted to a pair of extremely low-risk – and seemingly low-upside – options. On Friday, they signed free agent Anibal Sanchez to a non-guaranteed deal that will max out at $5 million if he sticks and earns incentives. A day later, they traded shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Jake Odorizzi. These certainly aren't the kinds of authoritative, high-impact additions fans hoped to see. In terms of money, commitment length, and player capital, the Twins gave up very little to bring the two aboard. It appears Falvey is going all-in on his revamped department's ability to maximize these assets and extract hidden value. Between the two cases, there is a common thread worth keeping an eye on. Suite of Arms Ever since he arrived in 2016, Falvey has been systematically and continually building out the organization's baseball operations. His inspired outside hires have included Director of Baseball Operations Daniel Adler and Director of Minor League Operations Jeremy Zoll, both renowned for their intelligence and analytical chops. Falvey is a strong believer in collaboration, astutely understanding that successful execs surround themselves with the right people and listen to them. To this end, he has put a clear focus on pitching specializations. Last summer, the Twins brought in former big-league hurler Jeremy Hefner as a data-driven video scout. In December, they lured Josh Kalk – considered a pitching analytics expert – away from the Rays as a senior analyst. That latter name is interesting with regard to Minnesota's newest player acquisition. Kalk is of course very familiar with Odorizzi, who threw almost 700 innings in Tampa after being picked up in the 2012 James Shields trade. The right-hander was highly effective in 2015 and 2016, posting a 3.53 ERA and 3.98 FIP. With those kinds of numbers, he'd be a slam-dunk add for Minnesota – especially at the cost of Palacios, a good-not-great prospect who was buried on the org depth chart. Of course, Odorizzi wasn't that same pitcher in 2017, producing career-worsts in ERA (4.14 ERA) and FIP (5.43). But it stands to reason that Kalk and others see something fixable. Leveraging the very same PitchF/X data that Kalk is said to have excelled with using in Tampa Bay, Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs argued over the weekend that Odorizzi may be one adjustment away from turning the corner. The piece is worth reading, as Sawchik lays out pitch usage, location, release points and more to establish a fairly convincing case for Odorizzi's issues being correctable. The Anibal Challenge Turning around a pitcher like Odorizzi – a former first-rounder and top prospect who's still only 27 and has a recent track record of MLB success – isn't a monumental undertaking. Far more ambitious was the assignment Minnesota's brain trust took on a day earlier, with the signing of Sanchez. When news came down on Friday afternoon that the Twins had reached agreement with the embattled right-hander, it hit like a ton of bricks, for numerous reasons. Pent-up frustration of a long and unfulfilling winter, punctuated by the recent Darvish letdown, surely factored. But there's also this: Sanchez has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the league over the past few years. Twins fans have watched from up-close while his $80 million contract with the Tigers deteriorated into a liability they paid $5 million to cut loose after last season. In 2017 Sanchez faced the Twins far more than any other team, and posted an 8.69 ERA against them. In 2016 he went 0-4 with a 10.13 ERA in four starts against Falvey's Indians. This front office has has seen Sanchez at his worst, extensively, and they still wanted him. In an odd way, that kind of inspires confidence. While it's easy to draw parallels, this isn't in the same vein as ill-fated past investments like Kevin Correia or Jason Marquis. It could easily end up the same way, but the Sanchez signing wasn't simply an attempt to procure veteran innings, regardless of their quality. It's said to be an "analytically driven" move. And, at a glance, there is some validity to it. Last September, Tigers reporter Evan Woodbery wrote that while Sanchez's time in Detroit was assuredly coming to a close, "There will be a team (or perhaps several) enticed by his peripherals, which remain incredibly, absurdly, inexplicably strong for a pitcher with a 7-ish ERA." Sure enough, it would seem the Twins weren't alone in having interest. Although Sanchez's contract is non-guaranteed, it is a major-league deal, meaning that he will occupy a 40-man roster spot in camp and is entitled to more compensation if he gets cut than your typical non-roster invite (e.g. last year's nonconventional pet project, Craig Breslow). The fact that an MLB contract was required to get this done suggests Minnesota was not bidding against itself. Despite the ugly numbers, Sanchez has some legitimately appealing qualities. His 3.59 K/BB ratio in 2017 would've outranked every Twins starter. He induced a spectacular 15% swinging strike rate over his final four starts and averaged a strikeout per inning in the second half. Just like Odorizzi, the 34-year-old hurler's biggest weakness last year was the long ball. Although his fastball has gradually lost its oomph, becoming entirely too hittable in the process, Sanchez's splitter-changeup remains a powerful weapon. He also has that much in common with Odorizzi, who himself leans on a vaunted split-fingered change, having learned the grip from former Rays teammate (and current free agent) Alex Cobb. It's worth noting that Fernando Rodney, another newly minted member of the Twins pitching staff, features a "magic changeup" of his own. The changeup was said to be a key focus that Neil Allen brought over from Tampa's system when he came on as pitching coach, and while he has moved on, that emphasis evidently has not. The Big Gamble In acquiring Odorizzi and Sanchez, the Twins are minimizing their material risk. They've only given up an expendable prospect and about $11 million, tops. They're not tied to either pitcher beyond 2018 (though Odorizzi will be arbitration-eligible again in 2019). But in another sense, they're taking a huge risk, by betting so strongly on their own ability to help these pitchers cut down on long balls and reach another level of production. Misguided overconfidence would be hugely detrimental, because this pitching staff needed a much bigger jolt than the 2017 versions of Odorizzi or Sanchez would provide. Much bigger. The Breslow experiment, while carrying far lower stakes, went down as a whiff on Falvine's first analytically driven attempt to uncover a diamond in the rough. Will these ventures, overseen by a collection of brilliant minds in the front office and guided by a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, turn out more favorably? For a team that's already making a number of precarious gambles in the rotation, with players like Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia figuring to land spots, rounding out the mix with Odorizzi and Sanchez is a harrowing choice, even if the mindset behind it is sound and reasonable. Click here to view the article

At various points in the offseason, Twins fans have had ample reason for optimism. Shohei Ohtani? Not unthinkable. Yu Darvish? The stars felt aligned. Trade rumors have alternately connected Minnesota to Gerrit Cole, Jake Odorizzi and Chris Archer. But up to this point, each rising balloon of hope has popped and deflated with a whimper.The Twins have been edged for the likes of Ohtani, Darvish and Cole by the very teams they're trying to join in the game's top tier. While the front office has openly tried to run with the big boys in pursuit of high-impact additions, they've repeatedly come up short. They talk like a team that's ready to take the next step, at a moment of prime opportunity, but the Twins' actions haven't been compatible. At his introductory press conference upon being hired as Chief Baseball Officer for the Twins, Derek Falvey spoke on multiple occasions of his intent to build a "long-term, sustainable, championship-caliber team." Those first two descriptors appear to be ruling the team's strategy. It's been an unusual offseason to say the least, but the patience Falvey and his GM Thad Levine have shown borders on reckless. They've addressed the bullpen nicely, yet with a clear focus on maintaining flexibility. They added Michael Pineda on a savvy, but presently unfulfilling, two-year deal. They evidently were not willing to pony up the prospects for Cole, or the years for Darvish. Minnesota should theoretically be a playoff-minded team coming off an 85-win season. But if you want a seat at the table, you've gotta be ready to ante up. To this point, Falvey and Levine have been awfully protective of their chips. Many opportunities and avenues remain, but with spring camp officially underway, the Twins have a piecemeal rotation, set to open the season without its lone proven horse. Planning is made difficult by the enigmatic outlook for this unit. Once this season is over, it may well be obvious that Jose Berrios, Ervin Santana, Trevor May, Adalberto Mejia and Kyle Gibson all deserve to be 2019 rotation members (the team will have optional control over all five). Then you've got Pineda, plus the litany of prospects and minor-leaguers who appear to be a year or less away. While the front office leadership has changed, the franchise's guiding mantra has not. The model here is build from within, supplement from without. And, don't shoot the messenger here, but – the Twins might be placing a rather myopic focus on the former. Such a view wouldn't necessarily preclude them from adding a starter on a multi-year deal, but I sense it'll only happen if an obvious bargain falls in their laps (a la Reed and Pineda). Otherwise, a one-year commitment looks likely. In this category, an option known to be coveted by the Twins came off the board on Thursday. Jaime Garcia signed for $8 million with the Blue Jays, who will hold a team option for 2019. That contract is right up Minnesota's alley: good value, flexible, and a clear rotation immediate upgrade (at least over what's slotted for the back end). But once again they were beat out by a potential wild-card rival. Or else Garcia ultimately came up short of their discriminating taste. Either way, another day passes with no move to aide the rotation. For fans, it's largely been a winter of disappointment and letdowns. I hold out hope that a pleasant surprise lies in store, but if they end up with someone like Chris Tillman as the lone infusion for this needy starting pitching corps, my developing faith in this leadership will be shaken. Now is not the time to fall back into that comfortable, overly conservative mindset. Click here to view the article

I don't think Javier falls in this category. He's a significantly better bet than Gordon, Lewis or Palacios to stick at SS.

When the Twins signed international free agent Wander Javier to a franchise-record $4 million bonus in 2015, they knew it would be a long road ahead for the 16-year-old. Although the immensely skilled infielder is still only beginning to embark upon that road, he's already leaving his imprint, and drawing national attention.Age: 19 (DOB: 12/29/98) 2017 Stats (Rookie): 180 PA, .299/.383/.471, 4 HR, 22 RBI ETA: 2021 2017 Ranking: 6 National Top 100 Rankings BA: 95 | MLB: NR | ESPN: NR | BP: NR What's To Like A lot. And national analysts everywhere are starting to see it. Javier made only one prominent Top 100 list this year – cracking Baseball America's rankings at 95 – but plenty of others have taken notice. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo named Javier one of his "Just Missed" prospects, adding that he "could shoot up the top shortstops list in a hurry." FanGraphs cited Javier as one of the lower-ranked prospects they love, grouping him among "highly skilled infielders who should be top-100 prospects next year if they add physicality." The Baseball Prospectus team has encountered so much steam on the young Dominican that when inviting readers to ask prospect questions in a Top 101 chat, they implored "not about Wander Javier, we beg of you." The buzz around this young man is more than understandable. He was considered an elite talent when he made his way stateside three years ago, and has only backed that up with his performance on the field. As a pro, the 19-year-old has hit .301/.386/.497 with with six homers in 50 games between two levels of rookie ball. In 2016, Javier made only 30 plate appearances in the Dominican Summer League before a hamstring injury shut him down. Still, the Twins sent him straight to Elizabethton last summer in what was considered an aggressive promotion, pushing him past the Gulf Coast League entirely. Javier got off to a slow start – 3-for-19 with eight strikeouts and one walk in his first six games – but he tore it up the rest of the way, batting .319 with a .906 OPS. In October, Baseball America named Javier the second-best prospect in the 2017 Appalachian League, behind only fellow teen shortstop (and high-dollar international signee) Kevin Maitan. "He flashes an above-average feel for the barrel and should grow into more power as he gains weight," wrote BA's Justin Perline. "As he learns to recognize pitches better and strike out less, he should be able to hit at the top of the order." While it's almost impossible to tell at this point, Javier shows all the attributes of a guy who can stick at shortstop. He was raw and mistake-prone in 2017, but that's not unusual. His arm is excellent, enabling him to make plays deep in the hole. He's very quick and agile. What's Left To Work On A year ago in this section, Seth pointed to "Everything. I mean, come on… The kid is just 18 years old." Javier is 19 now, and considerably more accomplished, but that sentiment remains true. We ranked him in the same spot this year as we did last, just on the cusp of the the Top 5. In some ways that's a compliment: It isn't easy to hold ground in this upstart system. But in order to climb to that top tier, the shortstop must continue refining his heralded tools. He needs to get more consistent in the field. He needs to improve his pitch recognition and cut down on the whiffs. He needs to start reading pitchers better, and converting his solid speed into baserunning impact. What's Next Javier needs to do all the above against better competition than he's ever faced, while culturally acclimating from the (already unfamiliar) southeastern United States to midwestern Cedar Rapids and full-season baseball. And keep in mind: he is still three Christmases away from his first legal sip of spiked eggnog. In other words, patience is warranted with this exceedingly talented young infielder. If he catches on fast in the Midwest League, however, the hype train will hit overdrive and Minnesota's depth of upcoming shortstops will quickly become the envy of the league. TD Top Prospects: 16-20 TD Top Prospects: 11-15 TD Top Prospect: #10 Akil Baddoo TD Top Prospect: #9 Brusdar Graterol TD Top Prospects: #8 Blayne Enlow TD Top Prospects: #7 Brent Rooker TD Top Prospects: #6 Wander Javier TD Top Prospects: #6 (Coming Thursday!) Click here to view the article

I'm bummed about it. I'm bummed about Santana getting hurt. I don't mean to give any other impression. Darvish signed, and I saw a forum thread here that was at almost 20 pages of pure frustration, and I just wanted to try to look at the other side. I do think Darvish would've been an excellent fit. But I didn't think he'd get 6 years. I would've done it, as I've said, but it's really not hard to see why an analytical assessment would deem that an unwise investment. And who even knows if the same terms or anything close were available to the Twins. I suggested they get him in the Offseason Handbook. I've been pushing it all winter. You all know this. But I recognize there are other fish in the sea, until the boats are ashore. We're not close to that point yet. If Darvish signed for 21M/yr, what are some of these other guys gonna get? There could be extreme bargains to be had.

I would suggest that your outrage is completely self-manufactured. Probably intentionally so. The article very explicitly described the Santana injury and Darvish non-signing as "bad breaks," in which I was seeking silver linings. I've reiterated that intent multiple times in this comment thread, including to you directly. And yet you're still out here on page 9 quoting me as saying Santana going out is a "good thing," a quote that has not appeared anywhere. Suggesting that there may be some positive outcomes to take forward from a generally negative situation is not the same thing as making excuses. And you know that. So I can only conclude you're deliberately misinterpreting -- and hanging on to that misinterpretation -- for the sake of being Mad on the Internet™ You mean the same Orlando Hudson that won four gold gloves? You're right, it does feel like that.

We don't know anything. "My own admission" is pretty irrelevant since I'm speculating just like everyone else. Maybe they offered 5/125, thinking/hoping he'd accept, and Darvish simply much preferred going to the Cubs on less AAV, knowing he'd be able to still make more long-term with the opt-out. All these hardwired "Twins are cheap" narratives seemingly prevent everyone from looking at very plausible scenarios such as this. I'm gonna check out on this convo but thanks for all the discussion, even if some of it has driven me crazy. Let's see what else happens.

Ok, fine. 23 starts/season averaged outside of the year lost entirely to TJ. Still not good. I'm sorry if that was disingenuous but is it really necessary to nitpick when the point still clearly stands? Darvish does NOT have proven record of durability. 200 innings once in 6 MLB seasons.

Again, this is ONE free agent off the board. Failing to sign him does not constitute "diving for scraps." The extent to which Darvish is being overblown on this board (and elsewhere) as some sort of be-all, end-all is almost comical. C'mon. We all like Darvish's strikeouts and flashes of brilliance but the man is 31 and has averaged less than 18 starts over the past 4 years. Let me know when the last time the Twins publicly offered a $100 million contract or made a trade attempt for a legit ace. I'll hang up and listen. Results matter, but so does effort and intent. It shows they are serious. If they haven't made any kinds of inspiring moves for the rotation by Opening Day I'll join you in your discontent but right now all the outrage is beyond silly. Do people realize how many teams across MLB still haven't made significant moves this offseason, and are sitting on mounds of unused payroll space? So, what you're really saying here is "Do whatever it takes to get the guy I want. Abandon all reason -- every risk model and valuation you've computed while undoubtedly analyzing this opportunity from many angles -- and outbid everyone else. Oh, and if the guy is unwilling to sign in MN, force him at gunpoint."

I appreciate the research and thought put into this comment but I'm just beyond tired of dwelling on what the Twins should spend. Falvey and Levine are working within an established framework and I'm more interested in seeing what they do within that framework than constantly lamenting the constraints. Those constraints shouldn't be an issue right now, and I don't know that they are. But the average fan isn't thinking about 2020-22, when Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Kepler and Polanco are all deep in arbitration or hitting free agency. Falvey and Levine need to. Yes, Darvish signed for less than expected. Others probably will too. I see that as more of an opportunity than giving a 6-year deal to a guy who turns 32 this year.

OK, let's be clear on this: I'm not professing to be some sort of insider. I'm not a reporter out here dropping scoops. I talk occasionally to people who cover the team, or who seem to have a good grasp of what's going on. I take in news and tidbits from all possible sources and give more weight to things that align. I connect the dots as best I can and I try to reflect those vibes in the things I write here. I don't mean to say they gave up on Darvish or ruled out the chance of him coming here. I just got a sense in mid-to-late January that optimism was waning, and that a union with the Cubs was beginning to seem likely. Wrote as much at the time. If you want to "mistrust" a front office that – according to documented reports – offered 100M+ to the top FA on the market and has also taken a shot the top trade candidate, go for it. I, myself, am going to wait and continue advising people not to panic. It's ONE free agent off the board. The release from the Twins said "Major League game activity." Seems pretty explicit that they're including a rehab stint in that estimate, no?

Well, I didn't. Someone else brought up a post where I suggested the idea of signing him in an effort to lure Darvish. And there's no reason to think the Twins didn't explore that avenue.

Your mileage may vary. Aging baseball scout spots flaw in a young player that goes undetected by hotshot young stat-head. He's proven right in a laughably predictable and contrived climactic scene. Every character is a complete stereotype. Yada yada.

I'm just theorizing here, but my guess is that Darvish's camp was coming close to a decision, and communicated to all remaining suitors "Submit your best offer" so the Twins did, despite knowing it probably wasn't enough.

No one's selling that idea. Again, the portion on Santana led with this statement: "Losing your top starter for a chunk of the season hurts, there's no other way to slice it." Giving Santana's arm extra rest, creating more ST flexibility, and forcing the front office to plan around not having a top-of-rotation impact from him (rather than planning around the possibility) are legit silver linings. That doesn't mean the development in general is a good thing -- it's not. I'm pretty tired of rehashing these inaccurate interpretations. If you want to argue that Santana's injury is nothing but a crippling, devastating hit to the team's fortunes so be it. I don't see it that way. Here's an example: There were a number of similar allusions from the press around that time in late January.

The Cubs can afford to absorb a few bad years at the end of that deal much more easily than the Twins. This is a very basic market reality. Epstein understands this. Not much else to be said. It is not hard to understand and no one is telling you not to be disappointed. I'm disappointed. But there are more productive things to do than sit around and sulk about how disappointed we are. This thread was meant to be a counterbalance to the aforementioned 20-page misery fest in the forum but sadly it's just been turning into the same thing. Come on people: Buck up!

If you need to have it explained to you why starting a thread called "Are we wasting our time? Will the Twins ever sign a top free agent?" -- which turns into a 20-page airing of grievances (to put it kindly) -- immediately after they came up short by offering someone $100M+ comes off as petulant, I dunno what to tell ya. You were wrong about the Dozier deal last year. They were right. Maybe give them a little credit that they know what they're doing?

This "sold hope" narrative makes it seem like there was something dishonest or misleading going on. It is pretty clear here that the Twins DID make a 5-year offer worth $100M+, which would be unprecedented in the franchise's history. I know everyone has these built-in suspicions about the Twins brass but why is to hard to accept that they were legitimately interested, gave legitimate pursuit, and legitimately got beat out by a franchise that always had an intrinsic edge over them? Be frustrated, sure. But there's so much "woe is me, we're screwed" going on here, as if Darvish was the only player out there with a chance to improve this club. The point of this article was to look forward and extract a few positives from a bummer of a situation.

Why are you oversimplifying things so much? They weren't going to sign Gimenez in the blind hope that it'd prompt Darvish to sign, creating another roadblock for Garver in the process. I wish people would stop operating under the assumptions that A) The Twins had complete control over this situation, and B ) They were unaware at all times of Darvish's mindset/leaning. By all accounts they'd moved on from Darvish weeks ago and have been working other angles. Last offseason you'd convinced yourself the Twins were going to trade Dozier to the Dodgers. This offseason you apparently convinced yourself they'd sign Darvish. On both occasions, when it didn't happen, you had a little meltdown on this forum. Maybe your own unrealistic expectations are the cause of your being disappointed and hoodwinked? The Twins made earnest efforts to pull off a Dozier trade that makes sense, and to sign Darvish. There is zero evidence that either of these things aren't true. The front office drew lines in the sand (we're not giving up Dozier for any less than X, we're not going to add a sixth year for a 32-year-old non-elite pitcher), and they stood by them. These are good things. They aren't obliged to do whatever's necessary to pull off a move you want to see.

It's not that people don't want old players. They don't want old bad players. That's more or less the only one the Twins could end up with in 2020-2023 under these terms. The likelihood of Darvish becoming an old bad player is more palatable to a team like the Cubs, who won't be restricted by his salary in the same way as the Twins will – at a time where they're trying to retain their emerging core players, many of them (hopefully) established stars by then knocking on free agency's doors. If you truly believe in Darvish, then yeah you take that risk. Maybe the Twins tried it and still got reneged. Who knows. Levine saying in December that he prefers not to engage in opt-out discussions is not the same as him ruling it out.

Trouble with the curve: An old baseball phrase as trite and cliché as the Clint Eastwood movie titled after it. But as the game has evolved, that cliché has never lost its relevance. The curveball remains a mystical entity, difficult for pitchers to master and even more so for hitters to solve. Blayne Enlow, still just 18 years old, has no trouble with the curve. His special ability to spin the baseball helps him hook a spot among our Top 10 Twins prospects fresh off his pro debut.Age: 18 (DOB: 3/21/99) 2017 Stats (Rookie): 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 19/4 K/BB, 0.69 WHIP ETA: 2021 2017 Ranking: NR National Top 100 Rankings BA: NR | MLB: NR | ESPN: NR | BP: NR What's To Like "He can spin the ball, which is hard to teach." Those were the words of Twins scouting director Sean Johnson when first in the 2017 draft. And it's very true. Last summer, Tom Verducci penned a big feature for Sports Illustrated on the resurgence of the curveball as a premier pitch in MLB. "Organizations have learned," he wrote, "that if someone does not show an aptitude to spin the baseball as an amateur, it’s foolish to expect him to acquire the skill." Enlow is ahead of all peers in this regard. Prior to last June's draft, MLB.com's Jim Callis dubbed his curveball the best in the entire class, which included plenty of vaunted college arms. The Twins followed the Louisiana prep closely all spring, and basically framed their entire draft strategy around landing him. (Maybe they wanted Royce Lewis no matter what, but signing him below-slot at No. 1 gave them the flexibility to lure Enlow away from an LSU commitment with a gaudy $2 million bonus.) It is, of course, still very early, but so far Minnesota's scouting department looks to have hit the bullseye and added one hell of a pitcher. Enlow made only six appearances in the Gulf Coast League after signing, totaling just 20 1/3 innings, but his performance was almost spotless. The projectible 6-foot-4, 180 lb right-hander turned in a 1.33 ERA with 19 strikeouts and four walks, allowing just 10 hits and one home run with a 55% grounder rate. As a high school senior at St. Amant, he had fanned 101 over 76 frames with a 0.92 ERA. His signature curve is already making waves in the pros. Baseball America recently ranked it as the best in the Twins system. GCL hitters were overmatched and couldn't do much with it. The pitch breaks so hard that some see it as more of a slurve, and TD community member Bob Sacamento went so far as to say in September that "[Enlow] showed me the grip and it's a slider." Regardless of what you want to call it, it's a phenomenal pitch, and Enlow's ability to combine it with a power fastball with stellar command at the age of 18 is beyond promising. What's Left to Work On You might be asking yourself: If this kid's so good, why did he slip to the third round of the draft? Well, that's a little misleading, because he signed for late-first-round money. It is quite likely that other teams were aware of his arrangement with Minnesota. But there were legitimate concerns cropping up around Enlow that caused his draft stock to drop a bit. Namely: a dip in fastball velocity, from 94 MPH during his junior year to the upper-80s early in his senior season. That can be a very troubling sign, but the velo rebounded as the draft approached (likely alleviating any reservations for the Twins), and he was reportedly back to touching 94 in the GCL. Of course, the problem with dominating so thoroughly on the strength of two pitches is that he's never had much need to work on a third. Enlow's changeup lags behind his heater and breaking ball, but that's not rare for a pitcher at this stage, and most believe he can develop his third offering into something at least usable. That question mark, and all others that generally apply to a teenage pitcher who hasn't yet played above rookie ball, keep Enlow's prospect standing in check... for now. What's Next The temporary decline in arm strength late in his prep career might help explain why the Twins took it quite easy on Enlow during his first foray into the pro ranks, using him almost exclusively in relief and always with big breaks in between outings. They'll probably continue to exercise caution in the next couple of years, but as he fills out, there's little reason to doubt his ability to stay healthy and maintain velo. Turning 19 next month, Enlow will likely start the season at the next step of rookie ball in Elizabethton, but it would surprise no one if he surfaced quickly in Cedar Rapids. Any level of success there, as a teenager, would put him on track to beat out our (fairly aggressive) estimate of an MLB arrival in 2021. Catch Up on the Rest of Twins Daily's Top Prospect Countdown: TD Top Prospects: 16-20 TD Top Prospects: 11-15 TD Top Prospect: #10 Akil Baddoo, OF TD Top Prospects: #9 Brusdar Graterol, RHP TD Top Prospects: #8 Blayne Enlow, RHP TD Top Prospects: #7 - Coming Tuesday! Click here to view the article