Nick Nelson

To be clear, I'm not so much worried about being able to replace Rodney if he's blatantly terrible. They've got plenty of depth to do so. I'm worried about what happens if he's kinda bad. How long does it take the pull the plug if he's blowing a save only here and there, but more than you'd like? Will Molitor be influenced by respect for his track record, or the commitment made to him when he signed? It's always easier to make these calls from afar; much tougher in the manager's chair.

But that was because all of these players slugged over .500 from August 20th (Sano's first day out of the lineup after the shinjury) to the end of the season: Dozier, Rosario, Escobar, Polanco, Buxton. Can you really count on that happening again over any prolonged period of time? Especially with the latter 3?

In the history of baseball, no season has ever gone off without a hitch. To encounter nothing but smooth sailing over the course of six months and 162 games is about as realistic an aspiration as hitting a five-run homer. The better you can foresee and anticipate hurdles coming down the pipeline, the more prepared you'll be to overcome them. With this in mind, here are five predicaments I believe the Twins should be accounting for, if not counting on, in the 2018 season.1 ) Missed Time for Miguel Sano Sano is currently under investigation by MLB for an alleged assault that occurred in 2015 but was revealed publicly only last month. It's unclear if he'll be suspended, but given that the league is needing to toughen up its enforcement of personal conduct violations, I'd think a 20 or even 30 game suspension is not out of the question. Even if Sano avoids such discipline, he's still recovering from a fairly serious surgery. Twins CBO Derek Falvey acknowledged last week that the 24-year-old "won’t necessarily be ready for full workouts when camp opens next month." Who knows how long it will take Sano to get back to full strength and sharpness. Even then, an offseason spent focusing on rehab – rather than the usual conditioning and mobility training – could easily render him more prone to injury. In each of his first two full big-league seasons, Sano has been unable to appear in even 120 games. Hopefully this is the year he makes the jump to 150, but Minnesota must be ready to proceed without him. Having Eduardo Escobar on hand helps with that, though it's probably wishful thinking to expect the same kind of production he provided down the stretch in 2017. Sano is also pegged for significant time at DH. Perhaps that is why I keep hearing rumblings of the team's continued interest in free agent Mike Napoli. 2 ) Quickly Developing Questions at Closer If Fernando Rodney is pitching the way he did last year, when he held opponents to a .582 OPS with a 10.6 K/9 rate and 3.03 FIP, then I won't be concerned if he experiences a few early stumbles in the ninth. Hopefully Paul Molitor won't, either. However, it is far from assured that Rodney will continue at that level of performance. For one thing, he turns 41 in March. And for another, those numbers were all his best since 2014. The only thing that has been consistent for Rodney in his career is his difficulty staying in the strike zone. He's gonna walk people. You can live with that when he's missing tons of bats and holding down a .275 BABIP, but his margin for error is thin. And there are few things more frustrating – for fans, teammates, and especially the manager – than a guy coughing up a late lead because he can't throw strikes. In line behind Rodney are two fantastic control pitchers in Addison Reed and Trevor Hildenberger. A couple of erratic blown saves in early April will turn the heat up quickly. 3 ) Out-of-Options Drama There's always an extra element at play when a fringe player comes to camp with no options remaining. By that point, the individual in question has usually been with the organization for many years. The team that drafted and developed him faces an ultimatum: bring him north or risk losing him on waivers for nothing. Last year, Jorge Polanco's lack of options all but guaranteed him the starting shortstop job, and (fortunately, it turns out) kept him there through a brutal midseason swoon. Michael Tonkin probably earned a bullpen spot out of camp solely because he was out of options. Ditto for Danny Santana as utility man. Those instances didn't work out as nicely as Polanco. The Twins haven't always let a lack of remaining options hold them hostage, and something tells me they won't this spring. Kennys Vargas, in particular, would seem to be at risk, and it's not entirely clear he'd even be claimed if they cut him. But, circling back to Sano's question marks, Vargas is currently the de facto slugging DH in the event of a prolonged absence. Ryan Pressly is also out of options, which probably won't alter the spring dynamic much (I feel he is pretty safe), but could come into play if he struggles early. With his stuff, it'll be tough to sneak him through waivers even if he's in a skid. Maybe, with their substantial bullpen depth, the Twins don't really care. One interesting factoid that surprised me: As far as I can tell, Kyle Gibson is NOT out of options. The Twins first optioned him in 2013, right after adding him to the 40-man, and didn't need to do so again until last May when his abysmal early performance forced the issue. Given that he finished 2017 so strong and will be earning upwards of $4 million this season, one might presume he'd be a lock. I have, for the most part. But this new front office has no deep attachment to him. They saw him turn it around nicely after a terrible first four months last season, but still, those four months – coupled with a 4.59 ERA in four years prior – do him no favors. The Twins seem to be taking a hard-line stance in arbitration with Gibson, the only player they've yet to come to terms with. All signs point to the two sides taking their dispute, over a relatively measly $350K, to a hearing. There's a fair chance the Twins are still going to add one or even two more starters to the mix before camp opens. I've had Gibson written in with pen but after further consideration, maybe it should be pencil. 4 ) Backup Backstop Uncertainty Perhaps the team is fully confident in Mitch Garver's ability to serve as Jason Castro's primary timeshare partner. But they don't have any proof of it. Offensive questions notwithstanding – he batted only .196 in 52 plate appearances with the Twins last year, but raked in Triple-A beforehand – Garver has much to prove defensively. He received high marks for his receiving work in the minors but the big leagues are another story. Last year, despite spending the final six weeks of the season in Minnesota, Garver got only four starts behind the plate. Fifty total innings. If the Twins have similar usage planned for Jason Castro, whose frequent spellings last summer paved the way for Chris Gimenez to log career highs in plate appearances (225) and starts behind the plate (54), then No. 2 catcher is a major role on this team. Garver may very well be up to the task but at this point the Twins have done little to hedge their bets. 5 ) Erv Regression Maybe he's an outlier. Maybe Ervin Santana has a particular skill set that enables his ERA to outperform his FIP (3.32 to 4.16 over the past two seasons). Perhaps he figured out something last year that enabled him to defy probability with a .247 BABIP, lowest in the American League. Prior to 2016, his career ERA (4.16) and FIP (4.26) were nearly identical. And his lifetime BABIP was .288, including .287 through his first two years with the Twins. Santana struck out 19.3% of hitters last year, ranking him 40th in the league. That's a lot of batted balls left to chance, and while he's got a tremendous defense behind him, which suited him well in 2017, it's awfully tough to sustain a .250-range BABIP. Santana has given up more than 300 home runs in his career. He turned 35 last month. He's logged nearly 2,500 innings on his right arm. The man was an absolute joy to watch last year, but by any objective analysis he's almost a lock to regress. It won't necessarily be a gigantic drop-off, but Minnesota can ill-afford to rely on Erv as their No. 1 starter. Right now, they are on track to do so. Click here to view the article

Interesting. I guess I've always presumed this would be the case, so it's easy for me to accept at face value. Seems clear that he is, at the very least, taking this year off. If there's an issue at play here, it may be the handling of how it was announced. Might have just been a slip of the tongue by Levine. If I recall correctly, when Berardino reported Willingham's retirement, Josh's wife got very upset because she felt it was Hammer's news to give. To that end, for whatever it's worth (probably nothing), Perk's wife Alisha 'liked' a tweet I posted earlier today referencing that report and linking to this article.

Nathan makes me appreciate the value of great relievers. I'm not sure his "magic" really makes a strong case for the value of the closer role. Joe Nathan -- the most elite of elite bullpen weapons -- converted saves at an 89% clip, which is BTW the best save conversion rate in MLB history. Rodney, despite the giant gulf in talent and ability, has an 82% career rate. So that equates to about one time in 20 opportunities that Rodney will blow a save, in comparison with literally the most effective closer ever. And again, Fernando is at 88% the last two seasons, which is actually a higher conversion rate than Kintzler had with the Twins during that span. And of course, when the playoffs came around, having one of the best closers in the game repeatedly failed to make the difference for MN. Would any of those games have gone differently if Gardy was willing to go to Nathan earlier instead of holding out for the save opportunity? Who knows. Well, he already is a setup guy, and was quite effective in that capacity. Based on his stuff, poise, minor-league track record, and what we've seen thus far in the majors, I have full confidence in him for the eighth or ninth. I'm not sure why it's necessary to "scrutinize" a sample of less than 20 innings, but against the AL Central Hildenberger had a 3.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 21/2 K/BB ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It was a surprising move to the say the least. Despite already having signed two relievers to MLB deals, leading to a crowded bullpen picture, the Twins went out and signed one of the top relief arms on the market to a contract unprecedented in franchise history. What was it about Addison Reed that prompted Minnesota to finally dive into the deep end of the free agency pool?Well, for one thing, Reed was undeniably an excellent value. Maybe it begins and ends with that. You see an opportunity like this, and you don't pass it up. When it comes to strengths that teams seek out in a relief pitcher, Reed checks off pretty much every box. He's relatively young by free agent standards, having turned 29 less than a month ago. He has worked frequently in high leverage, and brings plenty of closing experience. He's been extremely durable; Reed leads baseball with 157 appearances since the start of 2016, and has made at least 55 every year since 2012. And of course, there's the performance. Over the past two seasons, in addition to being baseball's most oft-used reliever, Reed has also been one of its best. Paul Molitor hasn't gotten Yu Darvish (not yet, anyway), but Reed gives him perhaps the most valuable tactical weapon he's ever had on a staff. ACE IN THE HOLE Cleveland's Andrew Miller. New York's Dellin Betances. Houston's Chris Devenski. All around the American League we see the emergence of premier relievers serving in non-closer roles and delivering massive value. Being able to deploy a dominating arm against an opposing team's best hitters, situationally, is at least on the same level of importance as a reliable ninth-inning man. I'd argue more so. The Twins are committed to Fernando Rodney at closer to start the season, and in many ways he is the perfect embodiment of the role's (relative) fungibility. Over the course of his lengthy career Rodney has been an unspectacular relief pitcher by any measure. Yet, he ranks third on the all-time active saves list, and has converted 82% of his career chances, including 88% the last two years. Plugging in Rodney as an inexpensive, yet experienced, short-term closer while making a much larger investment in Reed as the all-purpose late-inning fireman is – in many ways – a decidedly new-age move. GAME CHANGER According to Win Probability Added, which "attempts to measure a player's contribution to a win by figuring the factor by which each specific play made by that player has altered the outcome of a game," Reed has been the fifth most impactful reliever in the majors over the past two seasons. And look at his company in the Top 10: 1. Andrew Miller, NYY/CLE: 8.81 2. Zach Britton, BAL: 8.03 3. Kenley Jansen, LAD: 7.69 4. Brad Hand, SD: 6.14 5. Addison Reed, NYM/BOS: 5.85 6. Craig Kimbrel, BOS: 5.49 7. Wade Davis, KC/CHC: 5.48 8. Raisel Iglesias, CIN: 5.05 9. Shane Greene, DET: 4.47 10. David Robertson, CWS/NYY: 4.36 Now, it should be noted that WPA isn't necessarily a predictive stat. It only tells a story of what's happened. But in this case, it paints a picture of Reed as a pitcher who has consistently delivered with games on the line, drastically altering his teams' fortunes for the better. That's not a Darvish-caliber impact, but over the course of the season, its influence on the W/L ledger should not be downplayed. Of course, Reed continuing to succeed in big spots is reliant on his performance sustaining as it has, and that's no given at the game's most notoriously volatile position. We're also talking about a guy who, prior to 2016, had a 4.01 ERA in 250 major-league innings. But the righty's strengths seemingly make him a good bet to stay on track. TAKING CONTROL During our on-stage Q&A with him at the Winter Meltdown on Saturday, I asked the greatest relief pitcher in Twins history for his impressions of the biggest free agent relief signing in Twins history. Joe Nathan, like many others, went straight to Reed's calling card: control. "I love how aggressive he is in the zone. That's the biggest thing with the bullpen guys, if you're not throwing strikes you don't belong in the bullpen," opined Nathan, whose own success with the Twins was fueled in part by an excellent 7.3% BB rate. Reed has walked only 104 (6.2%) of the 1,669 batters he has faced in his MLB career. Twenty of those were intentional. He has hit six batsmen, and uncorked only 13 total wild pitches. (Last year alone, Trevor Hildenberger drilled four hitters and Ryan Pressly was charged with five wild pitches.) As Parker Hageman noted around the time of the signing, Reed has been in the strike zone more over the last two seasons than any pitcher other than Jansen, who has a strong case for being the best reliever in baseball right now. Reed doesn't have Kenley-type stuff, but it's good enough that he still managed a 2017 swinging strike rate of 13.7%, which would've led all Twins relievers. The ability to make people miss at that frequency, without needing them to chase, is one that inspires a lot of confidence. Conventional thinking says Reed is now next in line for closer duties, should Rodney falter. After all, his pay is commensurate with the role, and he has racked up 125 saves in the majors. But I wonder if the right mindset is to peg Hildenberger as Rodney's fallback in the ninth, and keep Reed as your flexible, strategic bullpen ace for as long as you can. Click here to view the article

Is this true? Do you have a source? My understanding was that a player couldn't be placed on the 60-day DL until like one day before the start of the regular season.

Good stuff. Thanks.

Personally I think it varies. Some guys have runs of bad luck. Others have chronic issues that are predictive. If the Twins assessed Burdi as the latter, then that's that. Maybe his elbow's never going to be able to handle how hard he throws. But plenty of players have gotten past early injury issues to fulfill their potential. You're probably right. I just don't get the thought process really, and can't figure it out. What did they expect to get with the 20th pick in the Rule 5 draft? If they cut one of those guys to sign Addison Reed, fine. But they could've made every move they've made so far with one of Burdi and Bard on the 40-man roster. Why not wait until you have to give them up? Especially Burdi, whose 40-man spot opens up again as soon as the season starts? There's no rule against adding a guy to your roster ahead of the Rule 5 and then dropping him a month later when you sign a free agent, is there? (That's an honest question, maybe there is.)

I've always been a big believer in Burdi's arm and think he'll be a stud reliever in the majors pretty quickly if he gets his health straightened out, so maybe I'm irrational on this topic. Perhaps the Twins have real reason to believe he'll never get fully healthy, I dunno.

How is it not? They elected not to add either of those two to the 40-man roster so that they could keep an open spot to draft Kinley, then Burdi and Bard (unsurprisingly, especially in Burdi's case) got taken.

Yep, I think that's the right layout to expect. And it creates a very favorable situation for Pressly to bounce back, because he'll be able to work in more low-leverage situations early on and build confidence.

Yeah, at this point I'm positive May is going to be given every chance to start, which is the right move. They're definitely not going to give up on him. I know the new FO guys are very high on May, and they were impressed by the way he was throwing last year before the injury.

Minnesota's signing of righty reliever Addison Reed to a two-year, $16.25 million contract, which became official on Monday, was stunning for multiple reasons. Yes, it was the first multi-year contract ever given to a free agent reliever by the Twins. But more strikingly, it adds another guaranteed contract to a bullpen that was already somewhat crowded. In fact, Reed may have removed the last vacancy in the unit, and that would leave some surprising names on the outside looking in.As things stand, I think we can safely say that the following pitchers are locks for the Twins bullpen, barring injury: Reed, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Trevor Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers and Ryan Pressly. You might quibble on Pressly but they just signed him for $1.6 million and he's out of options. Despite his disappointing 2017, I don't think they're going to give up on that stuff without at least taking one more long look. So if we're square on those assumptions, then there's one spot remaining in a seven-man bullpen. I might be going out on a limb here, but I suspect that spot is also essentially spoken for and filled. Er, Philled. One thing that is conspicuously amiss in the group of six above is a long reliever who can bridge the gap over several innings after short starts. The highest pitch total in a 2017 outing for anyone in the group was Hildenberger's 40, in his second career appearance, and I suspect the Twins would prefer not to let him approach that number going forward. We haven't heard much on Phil Hughes lately but the most recent reports suggested his recovery was going smoothly and he was amped up to return in 2018. He'll be six months removed from his thoracic outlet revision surgery when he reports to camp. His $13.2 million salary and – more importantly – his (albeit now distant) history of pitching well in the majors make him a sure bet to land on the pitching staff, so long as he's healthy and throwing reasonably well. As I wrote back in early December, bringing Hughes back as a reliever is almost the only option that makes sense. This only feels more true now, given how the rest of the pen is shaping up. So, if that seven-man relief corps is penciled in, it leaves all of these guys out of luck: Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz, JT Chargois, Gabriel Moya, Tyler Kinley. Duffey has spent almost the entire past two seasons in the majors, and posted a 3.72 FIP for the Twins in relief last year. Busenitz posted a 1.99 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 28 appearances as a rookie. Chargois lost his entire season to injury but is one of the organization's top relief prospects, and he's MLB-ready. Moya has been silly good in the minors, and had the highest K-rate of any Minnesota reliever during his brief 2017 debut. Kinley was the Rule 5 pick that the Twins basically sacrificed Nick Burdi and Luke Bard to acquire, though you could argue one or both might have been lost over the course of the offseason anyway. I didn't mention John Curtiss, because I don't think he'll be a viable contender for the Twins bullpen out of camp, but he's on the 40-man roster and has gotten a taste of the majors. Buddy Boshers was designated for assignment to make room for Reed, but if he makes it through waivers he'll still be around. He's spent plenty of time in the majors and has, in my mind, the right profile to get back there. The collection of guys slated to miss out on Opening Day roster spots could basically form an MLB-caliber bullpen in Rochester. I might be exaggerating a little, but not a ton, especially if Chargois is healthy and on his game. We still haven't yet accounted for Dietrich Enns (lefty starter acquired in Jaime Garcia deal, almost assuredly destined for a relief role), Tyler Jay (potentially back on the fast track after a healthy showing in the AFL), or the inevitability that at least a couple from the Gonsalves/Romero/Littell/Jorge pack will drop out as starters. It's a degree of MLB-ready (or very close) depth the franchise hasn't enjoyed in quite some time. And it happens to coincide with bullpens becoming an increased area of focus all around the game. Minnesota certainly isn't rich with proven top-tier relievers – a shortcoming they did address nicely with the Reed signing – but on aggregate, their talent at the position might rival any organization in the league. With just a few more guys turning the corner, the Twins could have themselves a self-styled power pen. Granted, that's a sizable "if" but at least the team is giving itself a whole lot of reasonable "maybes." Click here to view the article

On September 22nd of last season, Fernando Rodney closed out a win for the Diamondbacks and became the third active member of the 300 saves club. That number had stood at two (Francisco Rodriguez and Huston Street) for only a few weeks, because it was earlier in the same month that Joe Nathan officially lost his 'active' status by announcing his retirement. Now, with Rodney aboard as the new Twins closer and with Nathan attending this month's Winter Meltdown as our featured guest, I'm reminded of one of my favorite baseball memories – one which happens to involve both historic relievers.When people ask about the most memorable baseball game I've ever attended, it's an easy answer. The 2009 AL Central tiebreaker against the Detroit Tigers, with its enormously high stakes and staggering momentum shifts, was one of the most intense sporting events I've ever witnessed. To be there in person, alongside 50,000+ other fans for what would prove to be the second-to-last Twins game ever played in the Metrodome, was an exhilarating experience I'll never forget. That night also contained what would go down in my mind as the quintessential Joe Nathan moment. NERVOUS TICKS Being that we all saw it up-close, and on the heels of a highly successful run by Eddie Guardo as Twins closer, Nathan's incredible run in the ninth inning for Minnesota may not get the appreciation it fully deserves. Sure, the save itself – obtained simply by protecting a lead of up to three runs in the final inning – is an overrated stat, and not necessarily a telling one. Plenty of guys have racked up tons of saves without pitching all that brilliantly. But this was certainly not the case for Nathan. From 2004 through 2009, the right-hander was as good as it gets. Rarely in the game's history will you find a seven-year stretch marked by such consistent and convincing dominance. But you wouldn't guess it on the basis of Nathan's mannerisms while pitching. Despite his greatness, he certainly wasn't immune to getting himself into sticky situations, and when that happened, he hardly exuded confidence with his nervous pacing and raspberry-blowing on the mound. However, on the vast majority of occasions, Nathan worked his way out of it, and on that October evening against Detroit he did so in particularly dramatic fashion. THE TRIPLE FIST PUMP In the eighth inning, Matt Guerrier had given up a leadoff homer to Magglio Ordonez that tied the score at 4-4. After a groundout, Guerrier issued back-to-back walks, putting the game in a precarious spot. Joe Nathan time. The Minnesota closer, wrapping up what would prove to be his last stellar campaign as a Twin, came into the game and quickly induced a pop-up, then froze Gerald Laird on a signature hard curveball to escape the inning. The ninth would bring its own theatrics. The Tigers opened with two straight singles, putting runners on the corners with no outs. Due up? The Nos. 2-through-4 hitters Placido Polanco, Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera. Through grit, determination, and a little bit of luck, Nathan got the job done. First, he struck out Polanco – no small feat. Polanco's 6.8% K-rate that year was second-lowest in the majors. One of the best contact hitters of the era was just looking to put something in play, and couldn't do it, as Nathan caught him looking on an inside slider that caught the corner. Then up came Ordonez, setting up one of the most thrilling moments in a thrill ride of a game. Nathan fell behind Ordonez 1-0, then grooved a fastball down the middle. The Detroit right fielder connected didn't get all of it, sending a soft liner directly to shortstop. Orlando Cabrera gloved it and quickly whipped the ball to Michael Cuddyer at first to double off Curtis Granderson, who'd wandered just a bit too far off the bag. Inning over. Tie preserved. RODNEY RUNNING ON FUMES In the bottom half of the inning, in came Rodney, who was actually at the tail end of his first year as a full-time closer, in which he delivered the kind of performance that would become customary: with a 4.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, he was hardly great, but good enough when it counted as he converted 37-of-38 saves. In this particular game, Rodney put forth an admirable effort, going three full innings for a beat-up Tigers bullpen. But by the 12th, as he approached 50 pitches, the right-hander wore down and eventually the Twins got to him, with Alexi Casilla singling in Carlos Gomez to propel Minnesota into the playoffs. Rodney took the loss in one of the most memorable Twins games ever. Now, in the twilight of his career, he's joining up. Ironically, Nathan basically did the opposite, joining up with Detroit in 2014 for what was essentially his last burst in the big leagues. In that case it didn't go well (he posted a 4.78 ERA in '14 and made only one appearance in '15 before requiring a second Tommy John surgery). Obviously, we're hoping things play out better in the case of Rodney, who is coming off – by a number of measures – his best season in years. As he inches toward the end of his own career, he has a chance to gain ground on Nathan and other heralded closers ahead of him. It's not unthinkable he could break into the Top 10 in saves before he's done (he needs 68 more to pass another former Twin, Jeff Reardon, who's currently 10th). If Rodney is able to help the Twins back to the postseason this year, it'll be celebrated with imaginary arrows instead of fist pumps, but we'll take them all the same. His résumé will never match up that of Nathan – who stands out especially in contrast as the definition of pure dominance in the ninth – but Rodney certainly now has a chance to end things with a redemptive exclamation point. And if he's not up to the task, the Twins added some valuable insurance over the weekend with the addition of Addison Reed, whose performance over the past couple seasons has been much more reminiscent of Nathan in his prime. Click here to view the article

Well put!! He also just turned 24. The problem with this "wait and see" approach is that if you wait one more year, and Buxton turns in the kind of 2018 season many of us (including myself) envision, it's a different ballgame this time next year. That's kind of the point with this post, and the other situations referenced. The Twins locked up Dozier ahead of his true breakout, at a time where he hadn't posted an OPS over 762 and was hardly a star yet. Being proactive and anticipating his continued improvement saved them many millions. Meanwhile, Morneau went from laggard to MVP at age 25. How much more could they have saved if they extended him long-term ahead of that 2006 season? I dunno, with all due respect, saying "wait until he proves he's worth a lot of money and then pay him a lot of money" is not shrewd analysis. That kind of simplistic thinking is not what this front office was brought in for. And given that you were advocating not so long ago for trading Buxton and replacing him with Granite, I'm not sure you fully recognize the value Buck already brings and the likelihood that he's going to be a top-tier player in this league.

This has been an unpredictable saga to say the least. Here in the middle of January, almost every major free agent remains unsigned. Like most other clubs in the league, the Twins are still waiting to make their first truly significant move. The unfamiliar landscape of this offseason is clearly flummoxing both teams and players. The Twins can't control that. But they can control their own house. Which leads me to wonder about the biggest mystery of this mysterious winter: The Twins haven't signed Byron Buxton to a long-term contract extension. In fact, if they've even been discussing it, the secret has been well kept.Entering his final season before the arbitration clock begins, Buxton is reaching a point where the Twins generally lock up their building-block players, for cost assurance if nothing else. DOZIER VU Like, deja vu. Get it? Alright it's dumb but let's get back to the point. It was at this same stage in Brian Dozier's career that the Twins signed him to a four-year contract, which will wrap up this season. Because they timed the extension just ahead of Dozier's true breakout (he was an All Star the following July), the Twins have had him at a bargain the last few years, and will again in 2018. Had they simply run out the thread with Dozier and gone year-to-year in arbitration, he would be costing them almost twice his $9 million salary this year. That was an underrated move by Terry Ryan and Co. They were criticized at the time for failing to buy out any of Dozier's free agency, but that's a shortsighted complaint in my mind. Of course the Twins tried to get another year. But who could blame the second baseman's camp for resisting? He was already giving the team a great deal – if he grew in the way he no doubt believed he would. What Dozier got out of this arrangement was comfort. He received assurance that even if things went unforeseeably amiss, or major injury struck, he'd still be getting nice annual raises. Now, he is set to cash in bigtime. The looming spectre of Dozier's free agency is an unspoken impediment in the front office's talk of sustained long-term winning. It is also evidence of the urgency that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should feel to hammer out something more substantial with Buxton, and soon. MERCURY RISING There has been no buzz of extension negotiations between Dozier and the Twins. It seems clear that he's intent on testing the open market. Losing him after this year would be a bummer, but not a catastrophe. He'll be into his 30s, and while he's not a guy you replace, Minnesota's system has grown deep in middle infielders. Envisioning a similar scenario with Buxton is far more frightening. Dozier debuted in the major leagues at age 24. Buxton turned 24 less than a month ago, following a season in which he won a Gold Glove and received MVP votes. If he simply plays out his years of team control, he'll be hitting free agency after the 2021 season. At that point he'll be 27 years old, and if his ascent thus far is any indication, it's scary to think how good he'll be. Oh, also: Royce Lewis will theoretically be a fledgling big-leaguer. The Twins need to get something done while they still a fair amount of leverage. RISK MANAGEMENT The same benefit that enticed Dozier – comfort – is magnified in Buxton's case. While Dozier had proven quite durable throughout his pro career, Buxton hasn't enjoyed the same fortune. His brazen aggressiveness in center field, coupled with an ability to hurtle at ungodly speeds, has proven costly. Buck has missed a whole bunch of time, and while 2017 was largely a reprieve from the medley of injuries, it ended with a nasty wall collision in NYC. Buxton and his reps at Jet Sports Management surely recognize the earning potential in his not-too-distant future, but also must weigh his inevitably hazardous style of play. The Twins could offer much peace of mind with a long-term contract that includes a ton of guaranteed money. Perhaps the six-year, $80 million extension that Justin Morneau signed in 2008 could serve as a blueprint. It was a team-friendly pact for the recent MVP, entering his first year of arbitration. But Morneau had taken a fastball to the helmet very early in his major-league career, so he saw the virtues of a safe play. Incidentally, the decision worked out quite well in this case; Morneau earned $29 million in 2011 and 2012 while struggling to return from that fateful 2010 concussion. Had he simply taken an arbitration buyout, a la Dozier, the first baseman would've hit free agency for the first time in the wake of that brain injury. There's a decent chance Buxton will rise quickly to a level that Morneau and Dozier – both undoubtedly all-time Twins greats – could never touch. But as another all-time Twins great and center fielder once said, tomorrow is never promised to any of us. So Buxton has all the reason in the world to be open-minded if the team is approaching with a career-making contract. And on the franchise's end, there should be little hesitance to offer a hell of a lot to make it worth his while. Byron Buxton is a player you go all in on. Click here to view the article

I mean, I guess if the five teams listed think there's another team in the mix they aren't aware of, it might increase their urgency or at least cause them to rethink what they think they know about his market. But yeah, it's strange that he's out here publicly squashing random rumors.