Nick Nelson

I dunno man. Claiming that this is spin, when you're somehow portraying their deadline decisions as a "blunder," is something else. It didn't look like one at the moment and certainly doesn't look like one in hindsight. And while "missing out" on top international talent they've acquired players who are arguably better prospects than any available (sans Ohtani), and certainly better fits for the team's needs. They've actually done phenomenally well considering the circumstances. Leveraging teams against one another while they're all angling for Ohtani? (Granted, this required some help from his side because clearly he's making all these teams believe they're in it, and urging them to build up cap space to strengthen their cases.) Yes, forgot to mention this. But another great example of making something out of nothing.

I didn't mean to imply that at all. Only saying that casual fans of the team aren't even going to much notice stuff like this. And those are the people the Twins really need to reel back in. If you're waiting to judge them on the bigger moves I don't hold it against you. But I like much of what I'm seeing – roster shuffling, front office and coaching hires, low-key additions... I find myself nodding my head a lot. This definitely was not the case in the latter half of TR's run.

Major League Baseball is in uncharted waters. Executives around the league are still acclimating to the complicated international bonus pool system, and now to make matters more jarring, there are two completely unprecedented situations playing out on that front. With Shohei Ohtani hitting the open market, alongside a dozen freshly released players from the Braves organization, teams are scrambling to get in on the action. Meanwhile, the Twins and their increasingly impressive front office leadership appear to be a step ahead of the pack.When the Twins traded Brandon Kintzler to Washington at the deadline, they added $500,000 in international slot cap space. They later recouped another $3 million by voiding their agreement with Dominican shortstop Jelfry Marte, who failed a physical due to vision issues. These developments enabled Minnesota to build up flexibility for a run at Ohtani, but it quickly became apparent this wasn't in the cards. The Mariners and Angels, among the finalists in the Ohtani Derby, both wanted to sweeten their monetary offerings. The Twins dealt $1 million to each, and in return acquired two high draft picks from this past June's draft. Seattle and Los Angeles both bolstered their cases for Ohtani, but only one can sign him. Maybe neither will. And yet the Twins were able to extract valuable assets from both, and to do so, they gave up... nothing, really. Yes, that money could've been spent on international talent – and still can be, after one or both teams come up short on Ohtani – but probably not one matching the caliber of these newly acquired prospects. Certainly not anyone as far along. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are showing a masterful ability to navigate this new MLB landscape, and the rate at which they've pumped quality talent into the farm system is incredible. They already brought in arguably the best haul of any organization during their first draft in June (granted, they were gifted with very favorable circumstances). Now they've reeled in two more promising players from the top five rounds. Plus, Falvey and Levine were able to acquire Zack Littell, Dietrich Enns and Tyler Watson during the season, all in exchange for two players they could now sign as free agents. These aren't blockbuster moves that are going to garner glitzy headlines. The Twins haven't signed Yu Darvish, and until something of that nature takes place, casual fans at large will probably not buy into the notion anything has really changed. But make no mistake, this franchise has entered a new era of strategic, data-driven, opportunistic baseball operations. We heard those kinds of terms tossed around often when Falvey and Levine came aboard; now we are seeing they were more than buzzwords. Over the past decade at least, the Twins have consistently been criticized for lagging behind the times – justifiably so. It's been frustrating to watch from the outside. Now, no one could credibly accuse them of such. The latest series of savvy maneuvers fits with an established pattern of supplementing the pipeline, and building a sustainable long-term winning engine. But as far as winning in 2018 is concerned, Falvey and Levine haven't done much of anything. This doesn't make them unique – all of baseball has sleepwalked through the first five weeks of the offseason – but it would sure be nice to see this team fire up the Hot Stove before the holidays arrive. With the Winter Meetings on tap in Orlando next week, I suspect we'll have some higher-profile developments to discuss. And I hope the Twins will come away from them looking as good as they do now. Click here to view the article

He still had a 13% swinging strike rate in those final three starts, and struck out 20 hitters in 17 innings. That matters more than the results in my eyes, and helps to answer your final question.

Who is going to help move the needle for the Twins rotation? We know it won't be Shohei Ohtani. It probably won't be Phil Hughes. There are plenty of other options out there to be explored, and I assume they will be. But when I opined it was a myth that the Twins absolutely must add an impact starter, it was for this reason: The Rochester rotation is overflowing with potential reinforcements. And I don't mean the types of Quadruple-A journeymen that have often occupied the Red Wings ranks in recent years. We're talking legitimate prospects, ready to help.Much can change between now and spring training, but as things stand, one would expect at least these pitchers to be tentatively slotted for the Triple-A rotation: Aaron Slegers, Felix Jorge, Dietrich Enns, Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Fernando Romero. That's six, and I can't see much of a case for sending any of them back to Double-A. Maybe Romero, who wore down in August and didn't make it through the whole season with Chattanooga, but when healthy he was dominating hitters at that level, so even if he starts there it probably won't last long. Then there is Kohl Stewart. It's possible the former first-round pick, left unprotected for next week's Rule 5 draft, will be taken by another team, but that seems really unlikely. While his pedigree is pristine, the 23-year-old hasn't sustained any kind of success above Single-A. It wouldn't serve him, or his new team, to stick him in the back of an MLB bullpen. If he sticks around, it further complicates things. He has already made 32 starts at Double-A. It's sink-or-swim time at Rochester for him, but as things stand, the pool is full. And that's before we account for any other circumstances, such as Trevor May and/or Hughes needing to open in the minors to build strength, or Adalberto Mejia requiring a bit more seasoning. Looking at this impending logjam of arms, a few particular questions come to mind. I'll unpack them a little here, and then I'm curious to hear your thoughts in the comments. 1. What to Make of Aaron Slegers? To me, Slegers is a particularly interesting case as we look ahead to 2018. With relatively little fanfare, he has stayed healthy and climbed the organizational ladder since being selected as a fifth-round pick out of Indiana University in 2013. Though he's never achieved impressive strikeout rates, the 6'10" righty has consistently put up good numbers with a 3.50 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 600 minor-league innings. As you may recall, Slegers got his first taste of the majors this year, pitching brilliantly in his MLB debut (6.1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER) and then struggling in three September appearances. The 25-year-old appears big-league ready, and while he doesn't produce the velocity or whiffs you'd like to see from his sky-scraping frame, there are some things to like about him. Chief among the positives is his ability to locate. Control is often one of the last things to come along for big lanky throwers like Slegers, but he has been exceptional in this regard ever since joining the pro ranks. This has been a huge part of his success in the minors, and could give him a reasonably high floor as a big-leaguer. Unfortunately, the ceiling isn't so high unless he can find a way to miss more bats. But here's an intriguing nugget: In his second start back at Rochester following his August 17th debut with the Twins, Slegers tied a career high with 10 strikeouts, inducing a whopping 20 swinging strikes. In his next start he once again struck out 10, this time with 15 whiffs. The total of 35 swings and misses in two successive starts is an impressive feat, especially for someone with his track record (Jose Berrios, who's made 30 total starts at Triple-A, has only surpassed that number in consecutive starts at the level once, when he tallied 36 in late 2015). And that was the last we saw of Slegers at Rochester. I'm very curious to see if he can pick up where he left off, and what type of untapped potential might lie in him yet, especially if he returns to the Twins and jibes with new pitching coach Garvin Alston. 2. Is It Time for Any of These Hurlers to Make a Bullpen Transition? As we know, the Twins need help in the bullpen as well as the rotation. And as we also know, many of the best relievers in the game are former starters who switched roles somewhere along the way. Several of the pitchers in the mix we're discussing here are somewhat fringy. So is it time to consider proactively sliding one or two of these guys into relief, with hopes of upgrading their stuff and accelerating their paths to major league impact? This would potentially help alleviate the rotation logjam, but the problem is that it feels too soon to give up on any of these guys as starting pitchers. The only one I could really see it happening with right now is Enns, who has fluctuated roles quite a bit in his pro career and dealt with shoulder inflammation late last year. 3. Could Someone Sneak Into the Opening Day MLB Rotation? This would be another method of thinning out the crowd, but again, it seems very unlikely. Jorge, Slegers and Enns have a bit of MLB experience but neither would be a credible choice to open the season in the Twins rotation. Gonsalves and Romero would be more legit choices, and are very close to ready, but they need prove themselves (and their shoulders) in Triple-A. But all five are on the 40-man roster (as is Littell) so it's not impossible that one could find his way into the picture. After all, Mejia had almost zero major-league experience last spring when he won Minnesota's fifth rotation spot. 4. Should the Twins Be Shopping Pitching Prospects? This question is sort of inevitable after looking at all the angles. Unless multiple prospects being discussed here get hurt, move to the bullpen, or make the big-league team, the Twins are going to be facing a real numbers crunch with their almost-ready starters. The old saying about how "you can never have too much pitching" isn't exactly true. This situation will be a substantial factor in how the coming offseason is handled. As I see it, there are two ways to move forward: A ) Condense Flip quantity and upside for quality and readiness. If the Twins could package a couple of these arms and get back a quality addition to the MLB rotation, it would kill two birds with one stone. The problem is that it's risky. You've got to really trust your evaluations. Minnesota can ill afford to let one of these guys fulfill his potential elsewhere while getting back a few years of fairly expensive league-average performance from, say, Jake Odorizzi. B ) Youth Movement Take a pass on the bloated starting pitching market and let the kids take the reins. Go with a rotation of Erv, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia and [OPEN] with the final job being up for grabs among a wide cast. If the Twins truly want to build from within, and have belief in their group of young arms, then this would be the logical path. But it's not exactly one that thrusts your team forcefully into championship contention. We'll see how it plays out. This could be a point of divergence between the new mentality and the old. I suspect Terry Ryan's regime would have leaned toward the latter approach, while the Falvine Machine might opt for the former. I don't know if they're all that sold on this crop of pitchers – all good enough to be genuinely interesting assets, but not one a true top-tier prospect in the game. Click here to view the article

The forgotten man in the Minnesota Twins 2018 pitching blueprint was supposed to be among its centerpieces. When Terry Ryan signed the right-hander to a reworked five-year contract following his brilliant 2014 campaign, the idea was that Hughes would now be thriving as a rotation fixture entering Year 4. Instead, as we all know, things have gone a very different direction – a gradual yet consistent downturn ever since. But the veteran is still locked in, lined up as the roster's third-highest earner at $13.2 million; a total afterthought in discussions of a revamped Twins staff. He'll either be a lost cause or a pleasant surprise. Let's explore the latter scenario, and what it would mean.Over the past three seasons, while the condition of his shoulder has deteriorated, Hughes has tried just about everything to offset the decline of a fastball that was once his calling card. He's thrown more changeups. He's attempted adding spin to his heater. He has undergone surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome not once, but twice. Ultimately, nothing else will matter much if his latest operation – dubbed a "revision" on the first – doesn't take. Last year, he came back from the initial surgery experiencing the same symptoms of fatigue that necessitated it in the first place. There was no improvement. His fastball velocity registered at a new career low. Mum's been the word on Hughes lately as he rehabs from an August 10th procedure that involved removing the remainder of his rib (half was taken out the first time) along with scar tissue, while cleaning up scalene muscles in the area. If you're having a hard time counting on Hughes, that's more than understandable. He hasn't been a particularly effective pitcher since that 2014 season, which now feels like a very distant memory. But it's important to remember how good he was then, and at other times. Does that ability still does reside within him? The new Twins front office, saddled with a $26.4 million commitment through the next two years, has no choice but to focus on his still-existent upside, no matter how remote the likelihood of achieving it at this point. How should the team's decision-makers be planning around Hughes as they look ahead to next spring, when he's expected to be ready to roll? I see two options, and one is clearly preferable in my mind. 1) Rotation Depth It goes without saying that the Twins must come to camp with at least five starting pitchers slotted ahead of Hughes. Anything less would be grossly irresponsible. So, if the plan is to bring back Hughes as a starter, he's nothing but insurance. Presumably he wouldn't be able to supplant one of the five proven commodities in front of him, even with a decent spring showing. When the season starts and he's on the outside of the rotation looking in, where do you go from there? Try sending him to Rochester so he can add to – dare I say – a starting logjam? Throw him into long relief, where he'll pitch sporadically in unpredictable bursts and struggle to build stamina? It could be that Hughes is no longer built to throw 100 pitches every fifth day. So maybe it's time to commit to another path. 2) Return in Relief Once upon a time, Hughes was the dominating setup man who paved way for Mariano Rivera in a championship season for the Yankees. That was a long time ago now – almost a decade – but he has shown he can do it. Most likely the 31-year-old's days as a flamethrowing weapon in the late innings are over, but his best bet to provide value could be in a middle relief role. This would enable Hughes to throw in shorter stints, perhaps reducing repetitive wear on his arm, maybe even helping him regain strength. It would also be easier to make room for him in the pen than in the rotation. Even if he doesn't approach the 94 MPH gas he was bringing back in 2009, Hughes has the control and aptitude to be an effective reliever if this surgery restores even a semblance of his previous zip. The Twins, of course, will take whatever bullpen depth they can get. An optimist could even venture to think bigger. Other pitchers have been written off due to recurring injuries around the same age, only to bounce back resoundingly in a different form. That list includes Hughes's good friend Glen Perkins, who appeared cooked after shoulder issues wrecked back-to-back seasons and ended his career as a starter. Perk wasn't all that much younger when he reemerged as a reliever than Hughes is now. It's a lofty hope, but one that is grounded in low expectations. Therein lies the beauty. Hughes has all the potential to surprise and little chance to disappoint. One thing feels clear, though: If the Twins try to bring him along as a starter, again, hoping he can regain velocity over long outings and make it through lineups multiple times, we're destined to get what we expect. Click here to view the article

I view it through the same lens as the Royals trading Wil Myers for James Shields following a 4th straight 90-loss season. Eventually, when a rebuild is stalling out, you need to do something to kick it into gear. Especially true for the Reds, who are wasting what remains of Votto's prime. Cincy's leading starter in IP in 2017 (Adleman) threw 120, and just signed with a Korean team. What's it worth for them to gain some desperately needed stability in the rotation? Maybe not Stephenson, but I think more than some people here are presuming.

I didn't say he's a pumpkin. My expectation is that he'll perform up to his career trends going forward (~4.00 ERA, ~4.20 FIP), maybe even a little better if he's truly turned a late corner, making him a fine pitcher and a desirable target for other teams. I simply think it's logical to swap him out for a younger arm with a lower likelihood of attrition from age and wear. The money reallocation and the prospects coming back are what make this concept appealing to me. I'm not trying to just dump Santana because I think he's guaranteed to implode. I assume he'd be a very capable, valuable pitcher for a team like the Reds.

I'm not worked up. It just seems like you're trying really hard to convince me of something I already agree with Trust me, I'm personally more partial to the metrics you cited. I just wouldn't call someone wrong for saying Ervin's year was better, and might make that case myself if we're looking strictly at results and outcomes. Also, for what it's worth, here's how WAR shakes out for those three pitchers if we use Baseball Ref's version instead of FG: Santana: 4.6 Liriano: 4.4 Hughes: 4.3

I don't know why you're pushing this so hard. I was responding to the idea that Santana's season wasn't even "arguably" better than Hughes or Liriano. An argument can be made both ways, and you're making a fine one for the other side. As I've already said, I probably lean more in that direction myself. But not everyone thinks FIP matters more than ERA, not everyone thinks BABIP is a complete function of luck and defense, and not everyone gives a darn about fWAR for pitchers. In fact, I'd say the majority of baseball fans probably don't. Santana threw more innings and while allowing fewer baserunners and fewer runs. It's that simple.

1) Lance Lynn is 5 years younger than Santana and his career ERA/FIP are both substantially lower. I see zero chance Erv would be more coveted than him, and Cobb would also be higher on almost every list. 2) This point keeps getting repeated but it's far from a given. Per the example I cited in the post above, Pavano threw 220 innings in 2011 as a 35-year-old with a 4.30 ERA, declining velo, and the most hits allowed in the league. Did anyone really feel great about bringing him back in 2012 at that point? Is it that hard to envision a similar scenario with Santana? Again: his 2017 season was very similar to Pavano's 2010 in a number of ways.

My issue is that this is the same kind of thinking that prompted Bill Smith and Company to go out and re-sign Carl Pavano after the 2010 season. You can't get caught up in what a guy did; you need to focus on what he's going to do. Much like 2017 Erv, 2010 Pavano was a popular veteran workhorse who helped lead MN to the postseason. Threw 220 innings, 7 complete games, outperformed his peripherals. He was the same age as Santana is now (34). The Twins felt like they needed to "let [Pavano] help them get to the postseason again." They signed him to a two-year deal, forfeiting draft compensation they'd have received by letting him land elsewhere. But, as it tends to go, a 35-year-old well-worn Pavano was far less effective in 2011, swinging to the opposite side of his FIP, and in 2012 at age 36 he broke down. Not saying the situations are identical (obviously Pavano had a much worse long-term health history) but the similarities are hard to ignore. I want a front office that is proactive and anticipatory. This is an opportunity to do just that, IF you can find the right match.

Those are fine arguments, and I'd probably be inclined to agree, but they're not definitive by any means. I'd say Hughes and Liriano pitched better but they did not stack up in terms of results. Santana has both of them beat in IP, ERA, WHIP, CG, shutouts, etc. Was an All Star and got a bunch of CY votes. I'm a fan of using peripherals and fielding-independent numbers for predictive purposes, but when we're assessing a guy's season in retrospect I think it's fair to just judge him by what he accomplished on the field. And from that standpoint, Erv's 2017 was arguably (maybe even unarguably) the best for a Twin since Johan's 2006.

Twins general manager Thad Levine has not been secretive regarding his pursuit of top available pitching talent. He recognizes a need to bolster the front end of his rotation. In the Offseason Handbook, I wrote a blueprint suggesting that the Twins trade Ervin Santana and sign Yu Darvish to replace him as the club's veteran No. 1 starter. Today I'll dig deeper into the rationale behind dealing Santana, because while it's partially about clearing his 2018 salary to make a big-money signing more palatable, there are other factors to consider as well.First, let's acknowledge the obvious: Santana was spectacular in 2017. He had arguably the best season for a Twins starting pitcher since Johan left town. Big Erv made the All Star team, finished seventh in Cy Young voting, and buoyed an otherwise shaky rotation. But that's exactly why his value is at an all-time high. Historically, career years at the age of 34 don't often become trends, and Santana's in particular carried many indicators of being aided by luck (evidenced by a 4.46 FIP). He's still a reliable, proven workhorse and that's why he has value to any team – including the Twins – but right now his value is peaking. Derek Falvey talked when he came aboard about being "opportunistic," and this would be the definition. Santana has only one guaranteed year left on his contract, but here's the thing: His 2019 option triggers if he throws 200 innings next year. In the event he regresses to his FIP – or even his 4.02 career ERA – but still reaches that milestone, you're locked into him for $14 million at age 36, right in the middle of a peak window for winning with Byron Buxton and Co. Santana's team-friendly contract can turn into a hindrance rather quickly. It might be easier to sell ownership on a $150 million splash for Darvish (already named by Levine as a priority target) if you can get that potential $27 million commitment to Santana off the books. And swapping out a 34-year-old with one/two years of team control for a 31-year-old with five/six makes plenty of sense in the greater team-building scheme. But even beyond the financials, there is an obvious sell-high angle at play here. Of course, other GMs will notice that as well. You can only be opportunistic if there are opportunities to exploit. Who might actually be interested in Santana, and at what price? In my mind, it won't be a World Series contender looking to add that final rotation piece. Many can afford to pursue a top free agent arm, and few would actually view the veteran starter as a meaningful upgrade to their playoff rotation. Instead, I look at teams trying to claw their way back into contention, and in desperate need of a veteran who can provide quality innings. My suggested match in the Handbook was the Cincinnati Reds, who have been withering away a Hall of Fame career for Joey Votto with three straight 90-loss seasons. There's pressure to get things turned around in a hurry, but the Reds aren't exactly positioned to go get Jake Arrieta. Santana would represent a modest financial commitment, and he'd immediately slot next to young fireballer Luis Castillo atop the rotation. Erv has been credited as a mentor in Minnesota – that factors as well with the 24-year-old Castillo being a fellow Dominican. In the blueprint I tossed out right-hander Robert Stephenson as a hypothetical return for Santana. He's a high-upside young pitcher, and former first-round pick, who has struggled with control thus far in the majors (5.10 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 120 innings). He did, however, put together an excellent late run in the Cincy rotation. Given his organization's scarcity of promising arms, Stephenson might be asking too much. But he's just one name. The Reds have a number of prospects capable of enriching the Twins system. There's also Raisel Iglesias. Jon Morosi reported Minnesota's interest in the Reds closer a couple of weeks ago, and while it'd take plenty more to pry him loose (Romero? Gonsalves?), Santana's presence might help move the needle. It's all speculation, of course, but therein lies the fun. Which other teams do you view as possible partners in a Santana trade? What would you be looking to get in return? Click here to view the article

Yes?

I don't think anyone's going to expect a 23-year-old with zero MLB experience to be their "de facto ace" right off the bat. But Ohtani might appreciate walking into a situation where he could potentially earn that label with relative ease.

Expectation is he'll be posted on Friday, then he has 21 days to choose a team, so he'll need decide by ~Dec 21st

Last week's renewal of the Nippon Professional Baseball posting system made it all but official: Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani is coming to the major leagues. He's expected to be posted this weekend, opening a 21-day open negotiation window, and $20 million is all it will take to procure his rights from the Nippon Ham Fighters. Every team in baseball will rightfully want in on that action. Could the Minnesota Twins, unshy about their interest, somehow find a way to land the potentially game-changing phenom? For a number of reasons, they might actually be among his very most appealing options.Flexibility By all accounts, Ohtani is adamant about carrying on his legacy as a two-way player in the United States. Given his position of leverage in negotiations, he can make that a hard-line demand if he wishes, and plenty of teams will be ready to meet it. Sure, he'd be able to bat during starts and maybe draw semi-regular pinch-hitting appearances with a National League club. But is he looking for something more? The ability to start at DH a few times between his turns on the mound? That would be an AL-only option. Would the Twins be amenable to such an arrangement? Thad Levine says so. "I think we'd let him do whatever he damn well pleases," the Minnesota GM half-joked recently. And why not? His team is almost uniquely positioned to accommodate Ohtani. The Twins used the DH role as a rotating post in 2017 and could do so again next year. One thing that would typically hold a team back from being open to such usage is risk factor -- it's hard to justify exposing a young pitcher to such added injury hazard, and deviation in standard routine, when you're committed for $20-30 million per year long-term. But given the low up-front financial commitment for Ohtani, clubs like the Twins figure to be more open-minded. Speaking of finances, here's another area where Minnesota gains a relative edge: Cash By recently voiding their $3 million offer to Dominican infielder Jelfry Marte over a vision issue, the Twins bolstered their international pool. As things stand, only the Rangers or Yankees would be able to offer more, and not by much. On one hand, this isn't such a big deal. Ohtani could sign with a team other than those three, and while his bonus would be smaller, it's a pittance relative to what he figures to earn down the line and through endorsements. Then again, nothing in this life is guaranteed. The 23-year-old made about $2 million in annual salary while in Japan, so he has yet to really hit the jackpot and now he'll have to wait a while under MLB's service clock rules. Minnesota's ability to offer almost $2 million more up-front than, say, Seattle (said to be making a full-court press for Ohtani) could hold some serious weight. Of course, this is all subject to change because teams can trade for more international bonus pool money. The Twins acquired $500K from Washington in the Brandon Kintzler trade – part of the reason for their favorable current position. They could try to get more. Or they could trade from their copious stock and add pieces from another club looking to go all-out for Ohtani. Another wrinkle. Contention It's safe to say Ohtani will prioritize a winning club that holds realistic short-term championship aspirations. The Twins, fresh off a postseason appearance with one of the youngest and most talented offensive cores in the league, stack up well in this regard – albeit not as well as other suitors like the Dodgers, Cubs or Yankees. But they do check the box and right now Minnesota is one of the most pitching-friendly destinations in the world. Connections Joe Schmit reported that the Twins have hired a new trainer with Japanese ties. Mike Berardino notes that the Twins have a "strong working relationship" with Nez Balelo, hired on as Ohtani's agent, and Minnesota has worked recently with Ohtani's team in Japan, selling Michael Tonkin's rights to the Fighters a few weeks back. Now, is any of this necessarily meaningful? No. But they are tidbits worth keeping in mind. One tie that would really serve to lure Ohtani is signing free agent starter Yu Darvish. Ohtani has a known affinity for the right-hander, and wore his No. 11 in NPB as an homage. And for what it's worth, Levine is quite familiar with Darvish, as he was assistant GM in Texas when the Rangers brought him over from Japan six years ago. Over the weekend he said he's been in "active" conversations with Darvish's agent and called the righty a priority. Signing both Darvish and Ohtani would be a splash of almost unthinkable magnitude, but it's not an impossible thought. And what a way it would be to set this rotation up for the next five years. A Distant Second? With all the above being considered, I think you could make a reasonable argument for the Twins landing second on Ohtani's list of preferences, or at least in the top five (especially if they could land Darvish). But the problem is that No. 1 on that list feels overwhelmingly likely, if not inevitable. Ohtani is destined to be a Yankee. John Harper of the New York Daily News wrote as much last week and it's hard to disagree with his conclusion. The Yankees can offer everything the Twins can and then some. They can pay him (slightly) more. They can give him DH at-bats between starts. They're a bona fide championship contender. They already have Masahiro Tanaka, another former NPB superstar, locked into their rotation long-term. And of course there is the huge market of NYC and all it entails. His earning potential outside of game checks is vastly higher there, so as is usually the case when the Yankees are involved, money will talk. It's a David versus Goliath scenario and the Twins have typically not fared well against the Yanks in such contests historically. But it's fun to dream on and, up until a deal somewhere is officially announced within the next month, we can do so without being utterly delusional. Regardless of where he ends up signing, the Ohtani derby will be like nothing else we've seen before in the major leagues, and his game on the field figures to follow suit. Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins shuffled their roster in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft. Their manager is riding high after a remarkable rebound. And a potential budding bullpen ace just finished up in the Arizona Fall League. Here's some food for thought go along with the holiday feasting ahead.* Monday marked the deadline for MLB teams to protect prospects from exposure to the Rule 5 draft by adding them to the 40-man roster. The Twins, somewhat surprisingly, added only three: RHP Zack Littell, LHP Stephen Gonsalves and LHP Lewis Thorpe. The first two names were essentially givens. Littell and Gonsalves are among the organization's best pitching prospects and both are almost big-league ready. Either one could be up in the majors as soon as the first half of 2018, so they weren't going to make it through the Rule 5 untouched. Thorpe is a bit of a different case. He's 21 and has only made one appearance above Single-A. Injuries and illness wiped out his entire 2015 and 2016 seasons, so the left-hander has less than 200 innings of professional experience. However, he has been really, REALLY good in that small amount of playing time, posting a 2.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while averaging 10.6 K/9. It's not too difficult to envision another club trying to stash him in their bullpen all year, and that's a risk the Twins couldn't take. The tricky thing is that now Thorpe's option clock is set into motion, so they'll potentially have to roster him or lose him by age 25. Usually not too big of a deal, but with all the lost time Thorpe is behind on development and needs to get caught up in a hurry. The Twins left several prospects unprotected, with these pitchers being the most notable: Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart. The first two are fireballing relievers who could help a big-league bullpen now (well, for Burdi it's as soon as he completes rehab from mid-season Tommy John surgery). So they're at high risk. Stewart, the fourth overall draft pick just four years ago, has reached Triple-A and has a 3.10 ERA in the minors, though his secondary numbers haven't been good at all. It's conceivable someone gambles on his athleticism and heavy sinking stuff, but the righty just hasn't shown enough. I do wonder if the front office that drafted Stewart would've been bold enough to risk losing him for nothing right now. * Paul Molitor has only been a big-league manager for three years, but he's been around the game long enough to know how it goes. Coming off the worst season in franchise history, and with a regime of outsiders taking over baseball operations, he knew his outlook was grim despite the undying support of ownership. Anything less than a clearly and undeniably excellent year was going to give Derek Falvey and Thad Levine an easy excuse to install their own guy. But as it turned out, Molitor delivered nothing less. His season started on a note of redemption and ended on an even bigger one: The St. Paul native was named Manager of the Year last week after leading his team back to the postseason. Of course, by that point Molitor had already procured the prize he really wanted, a new contract. He inked a three-year deal one week after losing to New York in the AL Wild Card Game, meaning Minnesota is now entrusting the 61-year-old skipper to oversee its impending prime window of contention. It's a terrific story for a Hall of Famer who's never strayed far from home. Whatever you think of his tactical shortcomings, it's clear Molitor has the belief of his clubhouse, and it's also important to remember that in terms of total managerial experience, he remains one of the greenest in the game. He's still learning, and in 2017 he will have new hand-picked pitching and bench coaches to lend support. (Is Derek Shelton anti-bunt??) * If the past few years (and especially this latest postseason) are any indication, the new model for winning in baseball will call for dominant bullpens with multiple high-powered weapons who can consistently shut down the late innings. Cleveland's Andrew Miller is the prototype, but increasingly we are seeing teams deploy their best relievers outside of the closer role, often asking for more than three outs with games in the balance. It stands to reason that if MLB continues trending toward shorter starts and more relief innings, these kinds of bullpen aces will keep rising in value. We'll all be surprised if the Twins don't make a concerted effort to add someone who might fill this role externally, but as far as players already in the organization, one name stands out as a potential fit the mold. Things looked grim for Tyler Jay this summer, when he was again hampered by shoulder issues, and rumors of thoracic outlet syndrome began to circulate. However, those rumors proved false and he was able to return to the mound at Class-A Ft. Myers late in late August with a dominant display (6 IP, 4 H, 10 K, 0 BB). Still needing to build up his workload after all the missed time, Jay headed to the Arizona Fall League, which just wrapped up. His stuff impressed even though he struggled some with control (11/5 K/BB in 9 2/3 innings). Most importantly, he took the mound regularly, logged his innings, and reportedly felt good. It sounds like he hasn't yet regained his mid-90s fastball velocity but he has it in him, and when commanding that pitch along with his powerful slider and solid curveball he's got the makings of a valuable late-inning weapon. The 23-year-old southpaw will absolutely be one to watch next spring. Click here to view the article