Nick Nelson

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He does have a 3.71 FIP and 9.5 K/9 rate in 200 MLB innings... May has been quite unlucky with the injuries thus far but when he's been on the field, he has performed.

The Twins need to improve their pitching this offseason. That is their top priority, and arguably their only priority. While it's easy enough to say, 'Go sign and trade for a bunch of new arms,' there are roster realities that will make adding multiple guaranteed contracts on the staff a somewhat complicated proposition. Trevor May is one pitcher who will prove difficult to plan around.When I was in Ft. Myers in March for spring training, May was one of the best performers on the mound I had a chance to watch. I wasn't alone in my sentiment. There was significant buzz around the big right-hander, who had worked hard in the lead-up to camp after getting the go-ahead to prepare as a starter. He was in great shape. His pitches were buzzing. He was amped up and ready to go. That May's stuff was among the best in the organization was no secret, and he had it all working in the Grapefruit League. He was electric on the mound in what turned out to be his final appearance of 2017, facing an all-star laden Team USA squad in early March. His sterling performance against premium hitters represented a big step toward locking up a spot in the rotation. And then, just a couple days later, it was all over. Shockingly, May had suffered a torn ACL in the middle of that outing, despite reporting no issues postgame. He underwent Tommy John surgery on March 22nd, and then spent his summer rehabbing. TJ recovery can sometimes take more than a year, but the timetable is growing shorter as methods improve. These days, pitchers frequently return to the mound after 10 or 11 months. There's reason to believe May will be ready to roll around the start of spring training if not shortly thereafter. As he noted at the time, the 28-year-old has never had a remotely serious arm injury in the past. GM Thad Levine pointed out that the UCL tear was "an acute injury" and that the cumulative impact was minimal. In other words, May's elbow was otherwise quite healthy, improving his odds for a quicker recovery. May has been throwing for a while now and reported on Twitter that he was starting to touch the mid-80s already in early October, less than seven months removed from the surgery. If by the end of camp next year he's looking like he did this spring before going down, May could be a high-impact addition, either in the rotation or bullpen. But in either capacity, how do you account for him if you're in charge of constructing the team this winter? The rotation already figures to have four members more or less locked in: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia. If you sign or trade for a starter, suddenly May is crowded out of the picture, though he could obviously push someone like Gibson or Mejia for a job, or stand by as the ready reinforcement. Sending May back to the bullpen is a less appealing option, in my mind. He showed upside as a full-time reliever in 2016, striking out 60 in 43 innings, but was altogether inconsistent and deserves a real shot at starting anyway. Besides, the pen has its share of question marks as is – Ryan Pressly, Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz, JT Chargois, etc. Adding May would further cloud a situation already lacking much clarity. On the bright side, the Twins do have the luxury of taking their time, in a sense. There's nothing wrong with getting to Ft. Myers next February, allowing May to rev it up on the mound, and assessing from there. He has options left, so they'll even be able to start him in Rochester if they deem it necessary. But the front office's moves to improve the team in the coming months will need to factor in what they already have on hand, and May – more than most – is a difficult one to project with any kind of certainty. If he makes a full recovery and is ready to roll by Opening Day – and currently there's little reason to think this won't be the case – he should be part of the plan. Maybe a big part. Click here to view the article

MN's ranks in swinging strike %: 2013: 30th 2014: 29th 2015: 29th 2016: 29th 2017: 28th Regardless of what moves they make in the offseason, a majority of this year's staff will surely be returning and I don't think it's realistic to expect them to suddenly vault into the top half of the league.

Of course. And this clearly is an ongoing objective for the front office based on everything we've heard. But the Twins have a long way to go before their staff is even average at missing bats and it's not going to happen in one year, so for the time being, maintaining and building upon an elite defensive unit is critical.

Minnesota's 26-game improvement from 2016 to 2017 was driven largely by massive improvements in run prevention. The Twins allowed 101 fewer runs this year, and better pitching wasn't really the differentiator. In fact, the team's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) actually went UP, from 4.57 to 4.72. The strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates – they were all mostly static from one season to the next. What changed? The rate at which balls in play were converted into outs.In 2016, the Twins ranked 29th out of 30 MLB teams in Defensive Efficiency Rating. In 2017 they rocketed up to 12th. That's a remarkable jump. Sure, the pitching staff played a role in shaving off 11% of the runs allowed from 2016, but not a very big role. As mentioned above, the K, BB, and HR rates didn't really change. Per FanGraphs, the batted ball profiles – grounder and fly ball rates, ratio of soft/medium/hard contact – also remained virtually identical. The Twins hired a new pitching coach last week, and hopefully they'll target some impact arms this offseason. But what's truly essential is supporting those new and returning hurlers with the best defense possible. Fortunately, this roster already has a top-tier starting alignment locked in. The Twins can bring back all the starters from what was a terrific unit this year – arguably above-average at all but one or two spots. Byron Buxton is, of course, the central figure here. He was probably the most valuable defensive player in the game this year, and as long as he stays healthy at age 24 that should remain true. Those who preordered the Offseason Handbook received a special perk this weekend, when we sent out Parker Hageman's feature on Buxton's impact. You can get that, and another early preview coming later this week, by getting your preorder in now. Download attachment: CTA-Banner.jpg Flanked by Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, Buxton can lead the game's best defensive outfield. Jason Castro is a quality backstop. The right side of the infield shapes up nicely with Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer. Really the only question marks are at shortstop and third base, but Paul Molitor can help himself by rotating Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano through the DH spot frequently while plugging in Ehire Adrianza and Eduardo Escobar. Unless the Twins shake things up with a big trade, we already know how the starting nine will align in the field, more or less. But Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have opportunities this offseason to make upgrades on the periphery of the roster, and that's where I will be curious to see their approach. In particular, the answers to these three questions will be telling: 1) Will they bring back Robbie Grossman? The most patient hitter in baseball took a step backward after his exceptional first season with the Twins, but was still a relatively useful piece, splitting time between DH and the outfield corners while providing a steady – albeit unexplosive – offensive presence. Grossman's on-base skills fit nicely in a power-packed lineup, but it wouldn't be hard to find another fourth outfielder who can match his .741 OPS, and upgrading his glove would be be easy. When he's in the outfield, Grossman is a rare defensive liability for the Twins, lacking the range to track down anything outside his immediate vicinity. Rosario and Kepler are lined up to man the outfield corners, and both have proven vulnerable to left-handed pitching (especially Kepler), so it'd make sense to replace Grossman with a right-handed hitter who plays good defense. In the Offseason Handbook, you'll find a few names fitting that description. Then again, the arbitration-eligible Grossman will only cost around $2 million to bring back, and his .361 OBP ranked second on the team behind Mauer. 2) Do they trust Mitch Garver behind the plate? It would seem that Garver is ready to take over as Minnesota's backup catcher. He had a great year at Triple-A, earning Twins Minor League Player of the Year honors, and got his feet wet in the majors during the final weeks of the campaign. But do they trust his defense enough go with him as Jason Castro's standalone backup? This much is not clear. Molitor didn't seem to have a ton of faith in Garver behind the plate, giving him only four starts there and none after September 4th. Will the Twins bring back Chris Gimenez, or seek another glove-first option as Castro's caddy? If they do, what does that mean for Garver's future here? He turns 27 in January. 3) Did Ehire Adrianza show enough to get another shot? The Twins claimed Adrianza off waivers ahead of spring camp mainly because of his defensive rep. He played shortstop and he played it well; it wasn't clear Minnesota had a player with that capability on the roster. He ended up playing all over the field and getting a career-high 186 PAs this season. Like Grossman, Adrianza is eligible for his first turn at arbitration this offseason, and won't be expensive to retain (maybe around a million). The Twins need a strong defender they can use frequently on the left side of the infield. Did Adrianza do enough to convince them he's that guy? His defensive metrics were good, though not as strong as they have been in the past. To my eye, he was a bit sloppy at times and not quite the specialist that his reputation suggested. But the tools are clearly there and to me, bringing him back is an easy call, especially since he's the only speed threat on the bench as things currently stand. What are your concerns and questions around the Twins defense as we head into the offseason? Click here to view the article

Also, we're complaining about the Twins urging him not to rely on his straight 89 MPH fastball in the majors? Huh. Some people just refuse to believe there's any explanation other than coaching ineptitude for successful minor-leaguers who don't translate their numbers to the majors, even though it happens all the time in every organization. There's really no room for common ground when contending with that kind of unnuanced viewpoint. (I say this as someone who thought Slowey got a somewhat raw deal from the Twins.) This is more a discussion of talent/ability than past production. Do you actually think Santana is a better pitcher than Hill? Of course I don't think the Twins should be targeting an injury-prone starter in his late-30s. But they need to identify guys who can dominate the way Hill can. That's really the point here.

Lamet has pitched 1 season with the Padres and wasn't that great. He's not being suggested because of his numbers in San Diego. He's young, has good stuff and a 2.99 ERA in the minors. He's not a "legit 1/2 type" now, that's the point. He's never been a top prospect and wasn't spectacular as a rookie. But he has the underlying components to break out, IMO. The idea is to find those guys BEFORE they make that leap and thus not have to give up the farm. Folks, are we automatically dismissing every pitcher that comes out of the Padres system now? Because, you know, some guy named Kluber was fished out of the very same organization...

Hill over the past 2 years: 2.78 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 Santana over the past 2 years: 3.32 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 That looks to me like the pretty clear delineation between a #1 and #2. Santana has the advantage in durability (Hill and those pesky blisters), but when both healthy I can't imagine there's a person in the baseball world who wouldn't choose Hill to start a playoff game. It's possible. I wouldn't count on it. He had a solid year but he's a long way behind the the starters mentioned at the top of this article, no? Either way, as the teams that are still playing have proven, you need multiple horses atop the rotation. Because they're in desperate need of bats and you gotta pay to play. I'm not saying they'll be actively shopping him, but if the Twins came knocking with, say, Polanco and Kirilloff?

Clayton Kershaw. Dallas Keuchel. Rich Hill. Justin Verlander. These veteran studs, with their ace-type profiles and plentiful big-game experience, were tabbed by Houston and Los Angeles to start Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. Each played a major role in getting his team to the big stage. The Twins' deficiency in this area is the biggest reason it's hard to view them as serious contenders to make their own deep October run next year. What can they do about it?Minnesota has one starting pitcher who can credibly be placed in the same category as the four mentioned above, and in many ways it feels like a stretch to do so. Sure, Ervin Santana had some core numbers in 2017 that were on par with the league's top tier – namely, a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with 16 wins – but for various reasons, he just doesn't quite measure up. There's the track record. To his credit, Santana enjoyed a career year at age 34, but in 2,170 previous MLB innings he had a 4.09 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. There are the peripheral numbers. Santana was among the league's most homer-prone starters this season, with walk and strikeout rates that were closer to average than elite. The success was heavily aided by a career-low .247 BABIP. His 4.77 xFIP suggests the performance was not nearly as good as the results, and that we shouldn't expect the same going forward. And then there is the wear and tear. Santana's durability is to be admired – he has made 30-plus starts in each of the past seven seasons (excepting his suspension-shortened 2015). But all those innings take a toll. Erv threw 100-plus pitches in 17 starts this year, and threw 37% sliders overall. He'll turn 35 in December. There hasn't yet been a drop-off in pitch velocity or quality, but few arms can escape the ravages of time and attrition forever. For all these reasons, Santana looks like a poor bet to be the No. 1 starter that the Twins need in 2017 if they're aiming for a championship. So where can they find this most coveted of assets? If he's coming from within the organization, it'll still probably take at least a couple more years. So let's explore a few avenues for realistically adding an ace-caliber starter from the outside. FREE AGENCY There are three pitchers set to be on the open market who could slot above Santana in the Twins rotation: Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish. All three have the attributes to be a rotation-fronter for a true contender, and each has more or less filled that role within the past few years. Signing Arrieta, Lynn or Darvish will also require more than double the $54 million that Terry Ryan committed to Santana in 2014 when making him the highest-paid free agent in franchise history. So in a way, it's a little hard to envision. Or is it? There's a lot of payroll coming off the books over the next few years. In the 2018 Offseason Handbook (coming next week, make sure to preorder and get yours early!) we'll give you the low-down on these three free agents and 18 more, as well as a breakdown of payroll flexibility and how they all might fit financially. Download attachment: CTA-Banner.jpg TRADES Last winter, in the ultimately fruitless Brian Dozier trade talks, the Twins seemingly targeted the right kinds of arms in a loaded Dodgers system. While they probably won't revisit discussions with LA, this increasingly impressive scouting department undoubtedly has some other names from other organizations on the "Want" list. Are they willing to pony up? High-end pitchers, or prospects with that kind of potential, don't come cheap. Minnesota would surely be looking for a younger guy with multiple years of control, and that only ups the ante. The name that pops here is Chris Archer. One of the best pitchers in the game, he keeps getting mentioned as a candidate to be moved, though it's not clear why; he's 29 and signed very reasonably through 2021 with team options. I can't even imagine the package it would take to get him. Since established aces are exceedingly tough to pry away, the Twins would more likely need to identify someone who is on the verge of reaching that level. A tall task indeed. I'll just throw a name out there: Dinelson Lamet, of the Padres. The 25-year-old right-hander looked solid in his MLB debut this summer, averaging well over a strikeout per inning and featuring a 95 MPH heater. San Diego, perpetually one of the worst offensive teams in the majors, would LOVE to add some promising young bats. Are there other names out there that catch people's attention in the same way? Share in the comments. INTERNATIONAL We may see an unprecedented scenario play out over the next few months. By all accounts, Japanese superstar Shohei Otani fully intends to sign with an MLB team and head to the States. He's been called "Japan's Babe Ruth." Otani touches triple-digits and piles up whiffs with a nasty repertoire. Oh, and he's a good enough hitter that some legitimately believe he could DH on top of pitching. Two-way player or not, there's a decent chance the 23-year-old quickly becomes one of the top starters in the majors. And cost will not really be a factor in acquiring him. Per the new CBA, foreign players under the age of 25 are considered international amateurs and are thus subject to the bonus pool system. Otani could only sign a minor-league deal with a bonus of a few million tops. Many teams have already spent a majority of their allotted amounts. It bears noting that Minnesota is one of eight clubs that could offer a bonus of more than $1 million, though the Rangers and Yankees are also on that list, and probably more attractive destinations. I just don't see how the Twins make this happen. In fact, I really can't see Otani coming over this winter and forfeiting the $100M+ he'd be eligible to earn by waiting two more years. But, he says he's doing it, so we'll have to wait and see what happens. It's going to be an interesting offseason on all fronts. And with the World Series now officially underway, it's suddenly almost upon us. Click here to view the article

Last week, the Minnesota Twins announced that they would not be activating the contract option for Glen Perkins, making him a free agent. Matt Belisle will soon join him. At that point, the Twins will have a total of three major-league saves on their entire roster (one apiece for Trevor Hildenberger, Tyler Duffey and Gabriel Moya). If experience is at all a weighty factor for this team, then we have a pretty clear idea of what they'll be looking for on the relief market.The 2017 Twins season was, in some ways, a banner example of the closer label's fungibility. In the past, Minnesota has been guilty of vastly overrating the importance of ninth-inning experience, to its own detriment (*coughMATTCAPPScough*). But this past season, we saw Brandon Kintzler, a veteran with zero career MLB saves prior to overtaking the role midway through 2016, excel as an extremely reliable door-slammer. He converted 28 of 32 saves and made the All-Star team before being traded to Washington. Good reliever = fine closer. After Kintzler went to the Nationals, Belisle took over in the ninth. The 37-year-old had never in his career served as a regular closer. During the final two months, he converted nine of 11 saves. Good reliever = fine closer. These instances seem to confirm something most of us already knew: there's nothing supernatural about pitching in the ninth inning. And with this in mind, the urgency of adding a reliever with such experience during the offseason is lowered. The Twins have at least one player who could plausibly open the 2018 season as closer, with others in line to get a shot in the near future. Download attachment: CTA-Banner.jpg READY NOW? Trevor Hildenberger: Hildenberger was fantastic as a rookie in 2017, with his stellar mix of strikeouts and grounders proving extremely reliable. He rose to the occasion time and time again in big spots. He got both righties and lefties out. And he has plenty of experience closing in the minors. But he's also 26 with only 42 innings logged in the big leagues. This, too, is problematic: pigeonholing him in the ninth stops him from being available to Paul Molitor in those key mid-game high-leverage spots where Hildenberger was a godsend this year. I'm not sure you can make a strong case for anyone else internally being ready to take on the closer job now. But as soon as mid-season in 2018, several others could emerge as legit options. READY SOON? Tyler Duffey: The 2017 season was a frustrating one for Duffey, who flashed overpowering stuff at times and posted solid peripherals (3.72 FIP) but could never get into a prolonged groove in terms of results. It's important to remember, though, that he hadn't previously pitched out of the bullpen since 2013 and was in the Twins rotation mix all the way up until the end of spring camp. If he prepares for 2018 as a reliever, and comes back with an extra tick or two on his fastball to complement his power curve, he's certainly got the makings of a closer. He was a dominant one in college at Rice University. JT Chargois: Duffey's co-closer at Rice has been on the path to a late-inning role in the majors ever since being drafted, and looks to me like a closer in waiting. He has the pedigree and potency, no doubt. But he lost almost his entire 2017 campaign to an elbow injury, so he'll need to come back and prove himself effective before any kind of high-leverage assignment is on the table. Ryan Pressly: It was a weird year for Pressly. You look at so many elements of his game and see the profile of someone who could close. His fastball burns in at 96 with a complementary slider at 90. His 3.2 K/BB ratio, 1.16 WHIP, and 50% grounder rate all signaled a quality bullpen weapon. If he could translate his second-half performance (2.62 ERA, .582 opp OPS) over a full season he'd be a perfectly suitable closer. But he's gotten in his own way too often to be counted on. A sustained run of setup excellence in April and May next year could change the narrative. Gabriel Moya: Acquired for John Ryan Murphy in a late-July trade, Moya had a phenomenal season closing at Double-A, saving 24 games with a 0.77 ERA and 0.77 WHIP, plus a 13.4 K/9 rate. The stuff played in his first taste of the majors, producing a 12.4% swinging strike rate (tied with Pressly for highest in pen) and holding opponents to a .206 average, albeit in a small sample of seven appearances. He performed very well against righties. Moya is definitely a sleeper for the gig but won't be in the mix until midseason. Tyler Jay: The true sleeper in this discussion. Like Chargois, Jay endured a lost season in 2017, but now he's back in the Arizona Fall League and proving he's healthy. After dealing with shoulder and neck issues again this summer, there were rumblings he'd need thoracic outlet surgery, but has repeatedly tested negative for that condition. Like Chargois, he has the stuff and pedigree; it's just a matter of staying healthy and showing what he can do. FINDING A PLUG The six players listed above are realistic candidates to be good relievers, and as our earlier arithmetic suggests: Good reliever = fine closer. But no matter how much you want to downplay it, there is an added element when it comes to pitching in the ninth. There's unique pressure as a hurler faces the reality that small mistakes can turn a win into a loss very quickly. Any team, especially one with an offense like Minnesota's, can bounce back from a bullpen hiccup in the middle innings. When you're at the very end of the game? Not so much. Kintzler and Belisle converting a combined 86% of their save chances is an underrated factor in Minnesota's 2017 success, and the Twins need to try to replicate that efficacy in late lead protection. While neither Kintzler nor Belisle had history as a closer, or even a particularly dominant relief pitcher, they did have this arguably essential attribute: lots of experience in the big leagues. So if the Twins want to hold off on anointing one of the relatively inexperienced relievers as closer, it would make sense to find at least an interim veteran plug. Ideally, they'd do so without paying the premium for closer experience. Who on this year's market could be the next Kintzler? In our upcoming 2018 Offseason Handbook (preorder now!), we lay out the free agent reliever landscape. Wade Davis, of course, sits at the top of the pack, and is really the only bona fide "Proven Closer" in the group. Others like Seung-hwan Oh and Fernando Rodney have the experience but are somewhat shaky bets. These are some names that catch my eye as I survey what's going to be out there: Brandon Kintzler, RHP: If you're looking for a Brandon Kintzler type, you could always sign... Brandon Kintzler. The Twins will have an opportunity to re-sign the 33-year-old right-hander after sending him to Washington for the final two months of the season. He's familiar and well liked in the clubhouse. But they'd also be buying high on a guy coming off his best MLB season – also a season where his 4.9 K/9 rate ranked third-lowest out of 155 qualified relievers. Steve Cishek, RHP: Cishek has a very similar profile to Hildenberger. He's a right-handed sidearmer who gets lots of ground balls and strikeouts. He has been a very consistent performer over the course of his career, with an ERA+ of 109 or above in each of his seven seasons. Though he served exclusively in a setup role for the Mariners and Rays this year, the 31-year-old has plenty of closing experience with 121 saves and an 83% conversion rate in the big leagues. The distinguished track record will make him a pricey commodity. Jake McGee, LHP: There are many things to like about McGee. He's a strikeout pitcher with excellent control (four times as many K's as walks in his career). He's a left-hander who shuts down righties. He has experience in the ninth inning (44 saves), as well as in the playoffs (six postseason appearances). He's been durable and fairly reliable. It'd take a sizable multi-year deal to get him, but the 31-year-old could be a great veteran anchor in a young bullpen going forward. Luke Gregerson, RHP: Over the course of his career – spent with the Padres, A's and Astros – Gregerson has mostly been a fantastic reliever. But he's coming off his worst season, so it's possible he could be had at a relative discount. In the Offseason Handbook, we suggest Gregerson could be viewed as a "rich man's Belisle." He's got tons of experience (623 MLB appearances) and has a rep as a strong clubhouse guy, but he also has been much better all-around, and gets tons of strikeouts with a heavily deployed slider. Koji Uehara, RHP: It's entirely possible that Uehara decides to hang up the cleats. He turns 43 next April, and had the second half of his 2017 season ruined by knee and back issues. But if he wants to give it one more go, he'd be a welcome addition for the Twins on a one-year deal. When healthy, he's as reliable as they come, and was lights-out in the first half this year. He could hold down the closer role until one of the young guys emerges. What's your view of the closer situation as we head into the offseason? Are you comfortable with an internal option? Would you aim high for a name like Wade Davis? Or does one of the other free agents listed (or another) make more sense to you? 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The Twins Daily 2018 Offseason Handbook is now available for order and immediate download. You can claim your copy by clicking here. Name your price and download it right away to dig into its 63 pages of unparalleled offseason coverage. Read below for details about pricing and what's inside.What Is It? For nearly a decade, the TwinsCentric group has been producing the annual Offseason Handbook, an essential guide to the coming Hot Stove season for Minnesota Twins fans. This downloadable PDF features a ton of exclusive content previewing the offseason landscape as it pertains to your favorite team. * Click here to view last year's Offseason Handbook * We put you in the shoes of the Twins GM, providing all of the information you'll need to form your own vision for the offseason (or predict what the real guys in charge will do). Among the topics thoroughly covered inside this beautifully designed ebook: A deep dive on payroll and how much spending flexibility you'll haveFree agents at positions of need, and what they might costTrade targets, and how they could be acquiredArbitration eligible players and projected salariesBreakdowns of organizational depth at each positionFeatures from Twins Daily writersAnd more!Download attachment: CTA-Banner_NOW.jpg How Much Does it Cost? That's up to you. This is a donation-based product, so you can choose how much you'd like to pay. When you go to the order page, you will find an editable field for price. The recommended amount is $5. If you'd like to contribute more as a token of thanks for Twins Daily's year-round coverage, and to help the site sustain and grow, we are beyond grateful. If you're hesitant about paying, go ahead and order a copy with no donation. We don't mind! We'd rather get it into as many people's hands as possible, because we know Twins fans are going to love it. Have any other questions? Issues with your order? Please drop us a line at twinscentric@gmail.com and let us know. Click here to view the article

I didn't say he was a bust. But whatever question marks surrounded him a year ago have only been magnified. De Leon will turn 26 next season, hasn't even thrown 115 innings in a season, hasn't had a shred of success at the major-league level. If the Twins had traded Dozier for him straight-up, or with minimal added pieces (as plenty of people around here felt they should have), and things had played out in a similar fashion with both players, it would look TERRIBLE for the Twins and their new regime right now. They'd be getting skewered. This isn't even debatable.

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don't make. That old sports adage certainly seems to apply with regards to the first big test Derek Falvey and Thad Levine faced as heads of the reconstructed Twins front office. A look back at their savvy stubbornness, and how it paid off:In our blueprint for last year's Offseason Handbook, we suggested trading Brian Dozier to the Dodgers in exchange for young right-hander Jose De Leon and additional prospects. ** You can order the 2018 Offseason Handbook now (name your price) to ensure you get it ahead of its official release at the end of the postseason, with other special perks on the way as well. Preorders are only open for a limited time! ** The Twins, it turned out, were of a similar mind. As soon as the postseason ended, reports quickly arose that they were engaging the Dodgers over Dozier, with De Leon mentioned as a central piece. Based on media coverage, negotiations over the rest of the package turned into an extended saga, with little agreement over what those additional prospects might look like. For Levine, it was a high-stakes game of chicken. The longtime right-hand man of Jon Daniels in Texas, Levine was still arranging his office after landing his first gig as a GM, and here he was, going toe-to-toe with one of the game's most heralded execs in Andrew Friedman. And the player he was discussing giving up? Only the most popular and valuable one on the roster – one of the few marketable commodities on a club that just reached an all-time low. No pressure or anything. It would've been irresponsible not to explore the possibility. Dozier was coming off a likely career year and approaching the end of his contract. The Twins were rebuilding. De Leon was a hot prospect on the rise – the premier strikeout artist in all of the minors, aligning with a drastic need in Minnesota's system. But by all accounts, Levine took a hardline stance, refusing to accept anything less than a major haul in addition to De Leon. The thinking, I imagine, was that pitching prospects (especially those with recent injury history and unproven workload thresholds like JDL) are fickle assets, and you can't really afford to place all your chips on a single one. Good call. The Dodgers ultimately ran out of patience with the Twins and made a pivot, shipping De Leon to Tampa Bay straight-up in exchange for Logan Forsythe. I'm not sure anyone's regretting the deal at this point, but it certainly wasn't a slam dunk for either side. Forsythe took a huge step back from his solid 2016 campaign, hitting 14 fewer home runs with a 100-point drop in OPS. The Dodgers still won 104 games and are still heading to the big show but when you're in go-for-it mode, there's only one ultimate goal. I wonder if they'll wish they had the dangerous Dozier instead of Forsythe in the World Series, and next year. While the Dodgers didn't receive the major impact they initially sought, they're probably satisfied with the price they ended up paying. De Leon, sure enough, saw his first season in Tampa's organization ravaged by injuries, limiting him to 41 total innings and just one appearance for the Rays. It was more or less a lost year, casting further doubt on durability going forward. How would that have looked as the headlining return for Dozier, while he was powering Los Angeles to an incredible season? We'll probably never know what the best package Levine turned down was. But there were rumblings that the Twins were pushing for the likes of Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler. If so, it demonstrates astute evaluative chops from the GM and his staff. As we now know, Bellinger went on to have one of the great rookie campaigns in MLB history this year, slugging 39 home runs in 130 games, while Buehler returned from his Tommy John layoff in dominant fashion and even made a late-season debut for the Dodgers. Getting one of those prospects would have changed the conversation. But if indeed the offer was never more than De Leon plus scraps, then Minnesota pretty clearly made the right choice. Dozier stuck around and was a driving force in the Twins' reinvigorating turnaround, earning our 2017 team MVP honor. Coming off yet another strong campaign, and still a year from free agency, Dozier still carries significant trade value if the Twins choose to go that route, though that seems unlikely with the sudden flip to contention mode. For Levine and Falvey, stubbornness paid off. I hope they'll exercise the same keen judgment and high standards as the trade talks heat up once again in the coming weeks. Click here to view the article

Signing free agents to multi-year contracts, and trading prospects you view as non-essential for long-term upgrades, is very much in line with the objective of building a sustained winner. Treading water and stagnating is a bad idea IMO because during that time you are potentially missing out on excellent, and cheap, years from your blossoming young offensive core. They're here, they're ready. You're also wasting what could be the final years from Mauer, Dozier, Santana. And you're losing out on a significant opportunity with three-fifths of the division basically rebuilding. That won't last forever. The time is now. I do not agree that the strategy should be focused around winning in 2-3 years.

Interesting. But is it really buy low when he just posted a 2.87 ERA and allowed a .141 average? It'll take a haul to get him.

Turnarounds like the one we saw from Minnesota this season are rare, but not unprecedented. Derek Falvey knows this as well as anyone. Fresh off his first year as Twins Chief Baseball Officer, Falvey is working in familiar territory. He understands from experience that the hardest part isn't going from irrelevance to contention, but taking the next step.** Before we get started on this overview of the coming offseason, I'll make a quick pitch for your quintessential Hot Stove guide: The 2018 Twins Daily Offseason Handbook is now available for preorder. Click the link to claim your copy, and you'll get it as soon as it's ready, after the postseason concludes. Same deal as last year: name your price. Recommendation is $5, but you can pay as little or as much as you wish. We appreciate any and all support! Plenty more details are on the way in the coming weeks. You can check out last year's edition for an idea of what to expect. ** Midway through Falvey's tenure in Cleveland's front office, the Indians made a leap similar to the one we just saw from the Twins. After finishing in fourth place with 94 losses in 2012, Cleveland improved by 24 wins, earning a Wild Card berth in 2013 but losing to the Rays. In that case, the sudden emergence was followed by two years of treading water. The Indians won 85 and 81 games the next two seasons, finishing third both times, before rising to win the AL Central and pennant in 2016. This year, of course, they won 102 games and took the division again, but were ousted by the Yankees in the ALDS. For Falvey and his general manager Thad Levine, the goal is to unseat the current Central champs by following a similar path, but skipping the stagnation. Given the makeup of this roster as we head into the offseason, that's a reasonable objective. And in fact, while there's been much talk of a measured approach aligning with the big picture, one can argue that the front office should be making a very emphatic championship push in 2018 specifically. END OF AN ERA? Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer are both in line to return next year, and we can only hope they'll be as effective as in 2017. Sustained performance is no given; Mauer turns 35 next April, Dozier 31 in May. Age can become a factor at any time. There's also the matter of their contracts, which both expire after next year. The Twins certainly could bring them back, but it's hardly assured. This may well be the last chance to make a run with both longtime staples as key contributors. MARK YOUR CALENDARS Here are some important dates worth keeping in mind as we survey the offseason landscape. Three Days After End of World Series: Contract Options Due. The Twins only have one and it's a no-brainer: they'll exercise a $700,000 buyout to decline the $6.5 million team option for Glen Perkins. Five Days After End of World Series: Deadline to Make Qualifying Offers to Free Agents. For the five days after the postseason concludes, MLB teams get an exclusive negotiating window with their own free agents. During this time, they can make a qualifying offer, which brings the player back on a one-year (~$18M) contract if accepted, and yields draft pick compensation if they decline and sign elsewhere. None of the Twins' internal free agents – Matt Belisle, Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago, Dillon Gee – are worthy of a QO, and it's highly unlikely Minnesota will sign any before the market opens up. Six Days After End of World Series: Free Agency Open for Business. We don't know much about how this front office will operate yet, but if their first major move was any indication, they are going to be aggressive in pursuing their top targets. Last offseason, the Twins made their interest in Jason Castro known very quickly, and had him signed before the end of November. Once free agency officially gets underway, we should start hearing rumblings pretty quickly about players that Falvey and Thad Levine are keen on. This is the first offseason where they've had a chance to fully set up a plan going in, so they undoubtedly already have some names in mind. I suspect they'll be shopping for three things in particular: starting pitchers, relief pitchers and right-handed bats. You can get a deep look at what's available in each of those categories with our Free Agency breakdowns in the Offseason Handbook. November 13th-16th: GM Meetings. Today's general managers communicate through many different channels to negotiate trades (much of the action happens on Tinder, Levine has joked) but there's still something to be said for an old-fashioned face-to-face discussion. All 30 GMs will be in the same place during this week, with the annual GM Meetings taking place in Orlando. It'll be an opportunity to lay the groundwork with other execs as well as agents. Falvey and Levine haven't been shy about pulling the trigger on deals thus far, and started up extensive talks with the Dodgers over Dozier last winter around this time. December 10th-14th: Winter Meetings. One month later, the baseball world will converge once again in Orlando for the Winter Meetings – typically the most active period of the entire offseason. What kinds of shakeups might we see from the Twins? EXTENSIONS, EXTENSIONS, EXTENSIONS Some of the biggest storylines of this offseason will surround potential long-term contracts for a number of different players. Last week, John wrote about the merits of locking up Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario ahead of their arbitration years. A day later, Seth pondered what an extension for Dozier might look like as he looks ahead to a walk year. This week, he also took a deeper dive on how a Buxton extension could take shape. Here at Twins Daily, we'll of course have plenty more coverage of Hot Stove season as it gets piping, with all of the speculation, analysis and up-to-the-minute news you expect. But I promise you this: you are going to want a copy of the Offseason Handbook as a handy resource along the way. Please consider preordering yours now to ensure you receive it the moment it becomes available. Click here to view the article

EDITOR'S NOTE: We're re-pinning this article from October today due to the news that Glen Perkins has officially retired from baseball. On the final Sunday of the 2017 regular season, Minnesota Twins fans had the privilege of watching 44-year-old Bartolo Colon put, perhaps, the finishing touch on a lengthy major-league career that will go down as unforgettable. One night earlier, another pitcher likely closed the book on a story that's been far more impactful and personal to us, playing out from start to finish in our own backyards. Glen Perkins won't loom as large as Colon in the game's history, but he will deservedly go down as a Minnesota baseball legend, and if we were to establish a Twins Daily Hall of Fame, he'd certainly be a first-ballot inductee.Why do I say Perk is an easy choice for this hypothetical TD Hall of Fame? The biggest reason is obvious enough: his play. Our site launched in 2012, and during the first several years of its existence, he was easily one of the team's brightest stars. Perkins first took over the closer role midway through that campaign, relieving us all of Matt Capps. From that point through the end of the 2015 season, the left-hander was one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball, a three-time All Star and a dominant force. His best years coincided directly with the rise of our community. They also coincided directly with one of the darkest chapters in this franchise's modern history, which is a true shame. I do wonder how much differently Perkins might be viewed if more than a handful of his 120 career saves were actually meaningful. But it's not just the performance Perkins delivered at his peak that makes him near-and-dear to this site. He is in so many ways a reflection of everything Twins Daily stands for: a celebration of Minnesota baseball; an embracing of deeper and more thoughtful analysis; a sometimes nerdy level of passion for the game. This piece is my attempt to recognize Perkins for all of these things. Local Product He's the definition of a homegrown talent. Perkins was born in Stillwater, just inside the Minnesota border, in 1983. He grew up and played prep ball there, then attended the University of Minnesota, where he starred for the Gophers. Taken by his hometown MLB team with the 22nd overall pick in 2004, Perkins became the eighth first-round pick out of the U of M, joining – among others – Paul Molitor. How fitting that Molitor would eventually be the manager to send Perk out for his emotional curtain call in the season's second-to-last game. Obviously our central focus here at Twins Daily is covering the Twins (daily) but we also make efforts to extend our lens to Minnesota hardball at large. Readers could find frequent coverage of the Gophers and St. Paul Saints this summer, and around draft time we always shine a light on the locals. Perkins covers the breadth of our scope. When he donned those road jerseys with the "MINNESOTA" lettering across the front, it had quite a bit more meaning for Perkins than most. The Reinvention After joining the pro ranks, Perkins rose quickly through the minors, making his first big-league appearance two years after being drafted. But in time it became apparent that he wasn't cut out as an MLB starter. After working up to 150 innings in 2008, his arm didn't respond well. The following year he battled injuries while his fastball dipped below 90 and his K/9 sank to an untenable nadir. Late in the season, relations between he and the team reached a low point when Perkins filed a grievance against the Twins for optioning him to the minors instead of sending him on a rehab assignment off a DL stint, preventing him qualifying for Super 2 status (and thus, an arbitration raise). It was a logical decision for the Twins, but one could understand the lefty's frustration. His budding career momentum had grinded to a halt before yielding any significant money. The next year he pitched terribly in Triple-A but came back up to the majors in August anyway, in a probable last shot with the organization. Ron Gardenhire and the Twins saw something they liked as Perkins worked as a reliever in September, posting a 3.09 ERA and averaging a strikeout per inning. They brought him to New York for the playoffs. In spring of 2011, he was reportedly close to not making the team before a late-March meeting with Gardenhire in which he told the skipper, “I want to pitch for the Twins. It’s where I grew up. Just give me a chance.” They did, and boy was it a good call. Perkins blossomed as a setup man that year, pumping heat in the mid-90s, then took over the closer role in 2012. He would make three straight All Star teams in that capacity, and four years later he'd overtake Eddie Guardado for third on the franchise leaderboard in saves. It's the kind of turnaround that should inspire every struggling young player in the game. A Studious Mind As you may or may not be aware, Perkins wrote the foreword for this year's edition of the Baseball Prospectus Annual. In it, he recounts the story of discovering BP in 2009, and thusly becoming aware of sabermetrics and modernized analysis. Suddenly, he was noticing the negative harbingers in a 12-win 2008 season – a sub par K-rate, a bloated fly ball ratio, a FIP north of 5.00. A change in mindset, and reevaluating the factors of his game really worth focusing on, may have played a big role in driving his turnaround. By the time he was blooming as an elite relief pitcher in 2013, Perkins was well versed in advanced stats. That May, he participated in a Q&A with David Laurila of FanGraphs where he drilled down into metrics like K/9, Z-Swing%, and HR/FB. His assertion in that interview that FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is the most important pitching statistic probably wasn't shared by any of his peers in the majors, but was music to the ears of bloggers and analytical fans. This commonality – a fervent curiosity about baseball, extending beyond its traditions and platitudes – helped many of us fans feel an inherent bond with the hurler, and he strengthened it with an engaging and accessible personality. Perk has always been pretty interactive on Twitter. He and his wife Alisha host an annual 5K supporting mental health. He notoriously bought a round of beers from the bullpen for Twins Daily readers at our first Touch Em All Pub Crawl. He has even gone to bat for the value of baseball writing not driven by access: Perkins has done much to endear himself to Twins fans – and the hardcore sorts that patronize this site especially – so it's safe to say he wasn't the only one dealing with dust in his eyes as he sat in the dugout after that final appearance of the year. One of Us Here in Minnesota, the above term is thrown around often in sarcastic tones, teasing the absurd amount of pride we tend to express over athletes with local ties. But Perkins fulfills that descriptor in every sense. Thanks, Perk, for being One of Us and representing Us so well. Click here to view the article