Nick Nelson

The troubling trend of TOS surgery survivors, a veteran reliever headed toward an unceremonious exit, and a new side-arming righty bringing back memories good and bad. We'll cover three trending storylines in the latest Three-Bagger below the fold.* Dillon Gee's time on Minnesota's 25-man roster was brief and uneventful – he didn't make it into a game between being called up on Friday and sent back to the minors on Monday. There is, however, little doubt that we'll be seeing him again soon enough. The addition of Gee on a minor-league deal last week was interesting, and not because he is yet another marginal arm mixed in as the Twins desperately seek numbers for a thin staff. More noteworthy, in my mind, is that the right-hander is another victim of the thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS) epidemic, having undergone surgery for the ailment last October. This condition, generally affecting blood circulation to the arm and sensation in the hand, and the rib removal procedure used to address it, have risen in prominence recently. Several high-profile pitchers are currently trying to work their way back, including Phil Hughes. The early returns have been roundly unencouraging. Gee was released by the Rangers earlier this month after failing to impress. Hughes has struggled mightily while dealing with recurring symptoms, and will now try to return as a reliever. Matt Harvey, who underwent the surgery last summer around the same time as Hughes, is sidelined indefinitely with further shoulder issues after posting a 5.25 ERA in 13 starts for the Mets. Tyson Ross, eight months removed from his own TOS operation, had a 7.71 ERA in four rehab starts at Triple-A before being called up and now has a 6.13 ERA in three starts with Texas. Not only have these TOS recoverers failed to show any kind of meaningful improvement in velocity or stuff; many are having trouble even staying on the mound. Not a great sign. * The decision to send down Gee was puzzling and looked worse in hindsight when a rain delay on Tuesday night forced Hector Santiago out after two innings. It would've been a perfect opportunity for Gee to eat some innings but instead the Twins had to piece things together with an already beat-up bullpen. All so the club can continue to roster Matt Belisle, despite his providing no reason to do so. The 37-year-old made another lackluster appearance on Monday night, allowing an RBI single to Dustin Pedroia and then issuing an intentional walk before exiting. Evidently it was enough to keep him hanging around for whatever reason because Gee was deemed more expendable. Showing little command of a consistently hittable repertoire, Belisle is bound be let loose soon enough. While he looked like a better signing than Tim Stauffer v. 2015 on the surface, the results have been depressingly similar. Craig Breslow has been equally uninspiring, though he's been relegated to pitching almost exclusively in lopsided losses so it's less noticeable. For better or worse, until the Twins decide to go out and get some help, I'm ready to mostly hand this thing over to the young guys. Like this one: * Will Trevor Hildenberger, called up alongside Gee last Friday, be an impact upgrade for the bullpen? His transcendent brilliance while rising through the Twins system does pique the curiosity. It comes down to which franchise precedent he comes closest to following. With his quirky sidearm delivery and absurd numbers in the minors, Hildenberger calls to mind two former Twins relievers, representing very different career outcomes: Pat Neshek and Anthony Slama. Both right-handers flat-out decimated minor-league hitters, but neither enjoyed a lofty prospect status reflective of those monster stats, due to fastballs that barely touched 90 and a perceived gimmicky approach. Neshek, of course, had no problem translating his game to the majors. He was immediately dominant when called up to the Twins in 2006, embarking upon a tremendously successful career that continues today. (In fact, the now-36-year-old Phillies reliever figures to be a top Twins trade deadline target.) Slama never got more than a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues and quietly fizzled out. He retired with a career 2.51 ERA and 12.0 K/9 rate in the minors, and seven total innings pitched in the majors. The newcomer will surely fall somewhere in between; the question is which one he'll land closer to. Hildenberger's numbers in the minors overshadow both Neshek and Slama. In parts of four minor-league seasons, he has registered a 1.57 ERA and 200-to-26 (!) K/BB ratio over 172 innings. He has been Twins Daily's choice for Minor League Reliever of the Year in each of the past two seasons on the basis of those numbers. But as a former 22nd-round draft pick with plenty of skeptics, he'll need to prove himself and earn his way into high-leverage innings. Here's hoping he can follow the path of Neshek and become a game-changer for a bullpen that will take any help it can get, no matter how "gimmicky." Click here to view the article

His palms are sweaty. Knees weak, arms are heavy. There's vomit on his sweater already, mom's spaghetti. He's nervous, but on the surface he looks calm and ready. The lyrics of Brandon Kintzler's entrance song, 'Lose Yourself' by Eminem, describe an overwhelmed emcee struggling to control his nerves as he takes the stage. Much like Em's character in 8 Mile, Kintzler has much to prove, and despite lacking the prototypical traits of a shutdown closer, he's definitely making the most out of his one shot.The path that led Kintzler to the ninth inning in Minnesota might be worthy of its own biopic; a former 40th-round draft pick who spent parts of multiple seasons playing independent ball (including a stint with the St. Paul Saints), washed out in Milwaukee due to injuries, and joined the Twins as a low-key minor-league signing. The right-hander fell into closer duties last summer because the two top guys lined up for the job were unable to get it done. Glen Perkins pitched in only two games before succumbing to shoulder issues that would require surgery. Kevin Jepsen was a mess as his replacement. Kintzler, pitching as well as anyone in the bullpen, started seeing save chances in mid-June and handled them well enough to keep getting more. One year later, he has not only earned a tight grip on the role with the Twins, but has in fact blossomed as one of the game's most effective closers. Though he wasn't credited with a save for wrapping up Sunday's sweep-clinching 4-0 victory over Cleveland, Kintzler had pulled into a tie for the American League lead in saves with his 20th on Saturday. In a bullpen besieged by turmoil, and constantly in flux, he has been an incredibly steady presence at the back end. His importance to the success of the Twins, back in first place, can hardly be overstated. The relief unit has let a number of games get away, but rarely has it happened under Kintzler's watch. The 32-year-old has converted 20 of 23 save opportunities, posting a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 32 appearances – nearly all of them high-leverage. It wouldn't be shocking to see him named to the All-Star team when rosters are announced. One might say he's doing it against all odds. Of course, there is the aforementioned improbable career journey leading up to this point, but there is also the basic arithmetic of baseball. I'll admit that I've been skeptical of the veteran's ability to succeed as a closer, because his contact-heavy recipe often proves hazardous when the stakes are so high and the margin for error so thin. He is a rare breed. His 16.2 percent strikeout rate ranks among MLB's bottom 20; no other closer is even in that vicinity. You just don't see ninth-inning men in today's game with a pitch-to-contact profile, and for the most part, even a moderate K deficiency tends to be a bad harbinger (see: Sam Dyson and Jeanmar Gomez). The math tells us more balls in play means more opportunities for rallies to unfold. Few pitchers can run away from these basic realities forever, as Ervin Santana has learned this month while watching his BABIP rapidly normalize. Kintzler's 4.14 xFIP makes it tough for the analyst in me to get excited about his long-term outlook as closer. Yet, I can no longer find it in me to get apprehensive when he takes the mound. He's been doing this for long enough – more than a calendar year now – that it's hard to view his excellence as any kind of fluke, regardless of what the peripherals might say. If his knees are weak or his palms are sweaty as he readies in the pen, then Kintzler shows no sign of it whatsoever. His poise is tremendous. He doesn't get flustered, and executes pitches in almost every spot. His signature power sinker is almost always on. He rarely issues a walk (in fact, he hasn't handed out a single one in 11 June appearances) and this helps offset the infrequent whiffs, as does his propensity for limiting loud contact. I still would not plan around Kintzler as my permanent closer going forward, but his performance since taking over the role has been nothing short of amazing. With big shoes to fill and with immense pressure bearing down on him every time he takes the mound to protect a narrow lead for a team that can ill afford to let any extra games slip, he is thriving. Providing reliability on a pitching staff with a dire shortage of the same, Kintzler has been a godsend. His continually remarkable work is finally turning me from skeptic into stan. Click here to view the article

He has one option left. Was added to the 40-man following 2014 season so he's been optioned twice.

It was an all too familiar sight on Tuesday evening at Target Field: Eddie Rosario, in the name of being aggressive, making an unbelievably dumb play and costing his team. On this occasion, against the White Sox, he fielded a ball in left field and chucked it toward home plate in a hopeless attempt to beat a runner scoring easily from second. The throw was off line and, as catcher Jason Castro ran over to catch it, Jose Abreu strode leisurely into second, credited with a 'double.' Paul Molitor might have gained a gray hair or two, but definitely lost a little more of whatever patience remains for the young outfielder, who shows minimal interest in tempering his recklessly aggressive style.On the Gleeman & the Geek podcast a few weeks ago, Aaron cited a rather remarkable stat. Among all left fielders in the history of baseball who've made 1,000 plate appearances, Rosario's career on-base percentage (.296) ranks dead last. He has had the worst strike zone control of any player in the majors since arriving, with his 0.15 BB/K ratio ranking 185th out of 185 qualified players over the past three seasons. He lets his aggressiveness get the best of him at the plate, just as it does in the field, canceling out raw ability that too rarely shines through. The habits we expected Rosario to outgrow linger on, at age 25 and coming up on his 300th MLB game. He has been an altogether consistent hitter over the course of his up-and-down time in the bigs, with all the hot streaks and slumps adding up to roughly the same OPS every year (.742 career, .771 in 2017). That production would be perfectly fine from someone like Byron Buxton, who adds immense value on defense, but Rosario is a far cry. He plays a position with higher offensive expectations and he hasn't been playing it all that well. While defensive metrics love Buxton, they don't look so kindly upon Rosario, who rates negatively by both UZR and DRS. The small sample caveat obviously applies, but I don't think anyone who's watched him in left regularly would disagree. Now, this bears noting: Rosario is presently a year younger – and 200 plate appearances shy – of where Aaron Hicks was entering this season. Too many times we have seen a hopeless case suddenly flip on the light bulb, and with his electric ability Rosario would shine brighter than most if he could find the switch. He is a tremendous athlete. He hit three home runs in a game less than 10 days ago. His competitive fire would be refreshing and entertaining if it didn't so often burn him, and the team. Is he starting to feel the heat? The microscope is magnifying with a higher power lens with Zack Granite making serious noise at Class-AAA Rochester. The Twins 2016 Minor League Player of the Year is batting .349/.402/.479 for the Red Wings, with a .478 average in the month of June. A scrappy and speedy center fielder known for his high baseball IQ, he is an enticing option, albeit one with a far lower ceiling than Rosario. The big-picture play is to let things ride. Keep hoping it finally clicks for Rosario and let Granite continue to tear it up, maybe come up late in the year to get his feet wet as a fifth outfielder. But Molitor's fading club needs a spark, and the manager is undoubtedly exasperated with watching his blunderous left fielder hurt an already overmatched pitching staff. Swapping Rosario for Granite would certainly send a message. Are the Twins, whose deadline approach will be dictated by the next four weeks, ready to send it? Click here to view the article

I'm a big fan of Mejia but he has a 4.9 BB/9 rate and a 6.01 FIP, has pitched past the fifth inning only twice in nine starts. He's on thin ice. (Or would be, if they had anything for alternatives.)

With a four-game sweep at Target Field over the weekend, Cleveland surpassed Minnesota in the standings, knocking the Twins out of first place for the first time since early May. Let's be honest: this was inevitable. The Indians are plainly a better team, and in order to hang with them for the rest of the summer, the Twins are going to need to figure some things out.Offensively, the two clubs have been equally productive. Entering Sunday's series finale, the Twins and Indians had both scored 310 runs, with nearly identical team OPS marks (.754 and .759). Only one offense really showed up over the past four games, however. The Indians piled up 28 runs in the sweep while the Twins managed to push only eight across. Minnesota was at the mercy of a vastly superior staff, a disadvantage that will make retaking first place an exceedingly difficult proposition. The formula for the Twins has pretty much gone like this: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, pray for rain (or lots of run support). Neither of the two top starters was available in this series and rain mostly stayed away, so the remainder of a highly unimpressive rotation took its beatings. Meanwhile, the contrast in bullpen quality was blindingly evident, as Cleveland countered ineffectual efforts from the Twins with dominance from the likes of Andrew Miller, Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw. Measured by Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), the Indians rank as the best staff in the American League, and the Twins rank worst. So the lopsided outcomes are fairly unsurprising and trading places atop the division was all but inevitable. Cleveland's lead is likely to expand, too, unless the Twins can find a way to solve the hopeless patchwork comprising the back half of their rotation. The Contention Conundrum There is one school of thought that goes like this: the Twins aren't ready to compete yet, and winning in the short term should not be a primary consideration. I can only respond by channeling Eduardo Escobar: C'MON! I'm all for keeping the big picture in mind, but at the same time, the Twins are doing themselves a disservice if they don't make efforts to get the most out of this season. You cannot take for granted that you'll have another year where so many things play out right. It's easy to get caught up in the team's weaknesses after a demoralizing sweep, but let's not overlook the strengths that kept them in first place for five straight weeks. Miguel Sano is mashing at an elite level. Basically every other hitter is at least holding his own at the plate. Byron Buxton, one of the few who isn't, has finally been healthy and is changing games with his defense. Jose Berrios is fulfilling his potential before our very eyes. Ervin Santana has been one of the league's best starters. Brandon Kintzler has, somehow, been one of the its most effective closers. Cleveland is good, but it's not clear any of the other AL Central teams are. The Twins have some glaring flaws, to be sure, but there's a real opportunity to compete into September and maybe beyond. Focusing on that goal may force the organization to make some tough calls. No Easy Answers I think we can safely say plugging in waiver wire fodder like Adam Wilk and Chris Heston is not going to be the solution to Minnesota's pitching woes. Nor does it appear that Nik Turley is going to get it done. Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia have been erratic messes. Yet, for now, there is little choice but to keep running them out there. Hector Santiago appears close to returning (he'll make a rehab start this week) but he brings little assurance at this point. Phil Hughes is not all that close, and may come back as a reliever. I got this text last week from one of my more optimistic, bright-side-seeking Twins fan friends: "I know this is easier said than done but I really think if we could find even two more adequate starting pitchers and like three more bullpen arms we'd be just fine." I mean, you said it man. Unfortunately, finding adequate arms is a challenge that has vexed this franchise for the better part of a decade. In the minors, the Twins really have two players with the legitimate ability to enter the mix as difference-makers in the rotation. At Class-AA Chattanooga, Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves (ranked Nos. 1 and 2 on Twins Daily's top prospect list) have both been tearing it up for the past several weeks. They have stuff that could play in the big leagues. But this is where the front office must weigh that big picture against maximizing the team's chances in the present. You certainly don't want to throw a guy into the fire before he's ready; neither prospect has made even 20 starts at Double-A, or any at Triple-A. There is also the matter of protecting arms. Romero missed two entire seasons before returning to throw 90 innings last year, while Gonsalves missed the first chunk of this year with shoulder issues. The organization is trying to carefully manage workloads and strain, which is much harder to do in the majors. Then again, there are not a lot of alternatives. Trading away significant talent for an impact starter would be more harmful to the long-term structure, and we've seen the types of replacement level talent out there in waivers and free agency. The Twins can either stick with that plan, or they can turn to the best internal options they have, slightly ahead of schedule. These are the tricky decisions involved with trying to hang in a race. It's nice to be in a position to tackle them again, and we'll learn much about the new regime in seeing how they proceed. Click here to view the article

Thank you! This kind of comment is a day-maker, glad you enjoyed. Looking forward seeing you around. Also: excellent username choice.

At the end of the MLB Draft's first day, most Minnesota Twins fans found themselves in a state of confusion. The team surprisingly chose Royce Lewis first overall, seemingly with the intention of saving bonus money for a later splash, but neither of their next two picks qualified as such. Brent Rooker and Landon Leach, selected at 35 and 37, did not stand out as the kinds of players requiring an aggressive over-slot bid to sign. As it turns out, the true key to their strategy wouldn't become apparent until the first pick of day two. With their top selection in the third round, 76th overall, the Twins selected Blayne Enlow, a prep righty from Louisiana.The interest in Enlow does not come as a surprise, at least not for those who've been following our coverage. In his 10-round Twins mock, Jeremy Nygaard had Minnesota taking the prep right-hander with their second pick at No. 35. They ended up taking him 41 spots later, and then immediately agreed to terms on a bonus of $2 million. That's a bit higher than the slot value at 35 and 37, and nearly three times the set figure at 76 ($755K). The Twins paid Enlow like a first-round talent, and they're hardly the only ones who viewed him as one. The righty had been ranked as the 29th-best player in the draft by MLB, and 33rd by Baseball America. Either because he slid on other boards, or because he already had a deal in place with the Twins, Enlow went undrafted through the first 75 picks, allowing Minnesota to land him after already adding three other prospects they coveted. Putting all the pieces together, it looks like Enlow was the key target for Derek Falvey's front office all along. And when we take a closer look at the pitcher's defining traits, there's really only one way to spin this story. The Unteachable Skill Last week, Parker Hageman wrote here about one of the main hold-ups with Hunter Greene: his trouble with the curve. In short, while the fireballing phenom makes headlines for his hellacious heater, his breaking balls are lagging behind due to insufficient spin. There is a growing body of evidence that a great curveball cannot really be taught. After a certain age, a fairly early one, your ability to spin the ball kind of is what it is. You either have it, or you don't. The subject gained national steam when spotlighted by Tom Verducci in a recent feature for Sports Illustrated: So inscrutable is the magic of a curveball that it is accepted wisdom in the game that, while pitchers can learn to sink a baseball (with a two-seamer) and cut it (with a cutter or slider), they generally cannot learn how to throw a great curve. It is not a projectable pitch. Organizations have learned that if someone does not show an aptitude to spin the baseball as an amateur, it’s foolish to expect him to acquire the skill. As it happens, this is Enlow's speciality. Twins scouting director Sean Johnson told reporters after the draft, "He may have I think the best curveball in the high school group ... He can spin the ball, which is hard to teach." The Twins aren't alone in that assessment. MLB.com draft guru Jim Callis had named Enlow's as the best curveball in this class, describing it as "a 12-to-6 hammer in the low 80s." We see him break off quite a few here, and here: In the recipe for a big-league starter, Enlow might already bring the most important ingredient. Following the Leaders I wrote earlier this week that Minnesota took a page out of the Houston Astros playbook from 2012 with their approach at No. 1 overall this year. But not until I looked closer did I realize the nearly identical blueprints. Five years ago, Houston passed on a high school star widely heralded as a generational talent, favoring a prep shortstop with a lesser profile. They used the savings from that under-slot signing to lure a an underdrafted teenage pitcher away from his college commitment. That pitcher? Lance McCullers. And wouldn't you know, he also happens to be known for his curve. In fact, he was one of the focal points of Verducci's aforementioned SI piece, which included this nugget from the Houston righty: “I don’t view my curveball as complementary stuff. Whereas old school was more like, ‘No, establish the fastball, pound the heater and wait until they prove they can hit it.’ Well, what if I have two guys on and I’m trying to establish my heater, and he hits it out of the ballpark? You saw it in the postseason: Now it’s about pitchers challenging guys with their best pitch, and that means a lot of curveballs.” By going against convention, the Astros ended up with one of the most successful draft outcomes in recent memory, reeling in McCullers and Carlos Correa who are now both key contributors for the best team in baseball. The Big Picture In essence, it looks like the pitching-needy Twins decided to bet on Enlow's curveball rather than Greene's fastball. As you might expect with this analytical new front office leadership, there is plenty of data to back up that mindset. Evidence tells us an 18-year-old kid like Enlow can add velocity and learn sink after joining the pro ranks, but Greene may struggle to round out his repertoire. There's also a case to be made that the latter carries more injury risk. By making Enlow rather than Greene the featured prep arm in their draft class, the Twins also managed to net a potential star in Lewis with their top pick. It's a bold strategy, to be sure, and one that will open this organization up to a great deal of hindsight criticism if it flounders. Then again, if the Astros worried about such things a half-decade ago, they might still be spinning their wheels instead of dominating the league. Click here to view the article

So you send him down to Triple-A, and he rakes again for several weeks, meanwhile the MLB team is worse-off without him. Then what? Bring him back up and hope it's different from the last handful of times they tried the same thing? Buxton needs to stay up here, getting everyday reps against big-league pitching, working with James Rowson, and helping these pitchers. I don't even really see it as debatable.

My theory? They wanted Enlow. Had him lined up at 35 or 37 (where the bonuses are 1.9m/1.8m) but told him they would give him a little more if he informed other teams he wasn't going to sign so he could slide and the Twins could use those picks on other guys they liked. Then, they draft him at 76, give him a bonus higher than either the 35 or 37 slot (I hear $2M?) and come away with what they feel are four 1st/2nd-round talents. I like it.

The opening moments of Monday night's MLB Draft played out quite similarly to the one that took place five years prior. The Minnesota Twins, holding the first overall pick, went against the grain by selecting prep shortstop Royce Lewis, whom few regarded as the best available player. Meanwhile, the consensus top talent, Hunter Greene, fell to a grateful Cincinnati Reds organization at two. In 2012, it was the Twins who were beneficiaries in a similar slot-allocation play at No. 1, when Houston's surprising selection of Carlos Correa dropped top-ranked Byron Buxton to Minny. Obviously the Astros are feeling good about their decision, and we'll all be thrilled if Lewis even approaches Correa's brilliance, but today I wanted to recognize the player who landed here. Buxton may not be matching Correa's ridiculous pace, and has certainly had his troubles, but he is an absolute treat to watch and – I will argue – already a star at age 23 in spite of a cringeworthy .200/.271/.291 hitting line.Clearly, the bat hasn't yet come around for Buxton. He has taken a step backward following last year's late surge, and sits with the fifth-worst OPS in the majors as we approach the halfway point. Nevertheless, he is maintaining a positive WAR (0.8 according to BR, 0.5 according to FG). He is managing to make himself an essential everyday player, by chipping in defensively in ways that are extraordinary – though difficult to fully appraise. Fielding metrics love him. FanGraphs has the center fielder tied with Colorado's DJ LeMahieu for fifth in the majors in defensive runs saved (DRS), at nine. The site also has Buck in the Top 10 for Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). According to StatCast, he leads the league in four-star plays (26-50% probability) and is 12-for-12 on such opportunities. Some of these statistics try to quantify the tangible value of Buxton's defensive contributions, and do so generously. But can they truly encompass the extent of his impact? Sure, a calculation can spit out a "runs saved" number by comparing plays against baseline probabilities and running them through scoring matrixes (as DRS does), but Buxton helps the Twins in ways that go beyond measurement. Consider this scenario. A shaky pitcher is struggling with his command in the early innings. He's got a runner on first with one out. He hangs one over the plate, and the batter drives it deep into a gap. After a great read, Buxton makes a catch at full speed that virtually any other center fielder fails to make. Most don't come close. The baserunner, already rounding second, slams the brakes and scurries back. The pitcher, pounding his mitt in celebration, now has a runner on first with two outs rather than a run in, a man on second or third, and one out. (In other words, a rally.) He gets a grounder and escapes the inning. Buxton has not only saved runs, but also further physical and mental taxation for his teammate on the mound. This isn't a hypothetical situation. It has played out, in some form, time and time again. I don't feel like I'm stretching it to say that Buxton's consistent presence in center has been THE biggest difference-maker for Twins pitching this year. Although the team ERA has improved, from 5.08 to 4.87, the FIP (Fielding Independent) mark has inflated substantially from 4.57 to 5.05. You can make a good case the staff has actually pitched worse, just with much better support. Other players are doing nice things defensively, and Jason Castro deserves his share of credit, but no one has changed games like Buxton. He deserves way more credit for this team's position five games above .500 than he is generally receiving. And that's without providing much of anything with his bat. We will have to keep waiting on that, and cases like Aaron Hicks remind us these things can take time, but I continue to believe Buxton is far too talented and eminently capable to not figure things out at the plate rather soon. Once he does, his rise to elite stardom will be as direct as his path to silencing a screaming liner. Click here to view the article

On Monday evening, the Minnesota Twins will make the No. 1 selection in the MLB Draft for the first time since 2001. By all accounts, their choice comes down to three main names, with a few outside possibilities in play. This primer will get you completely up to speed on all the latest news, rumors and rumblings as we head toward a pivotal moment for the franchise. LAST CALL Saturday was monumental for Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright. Each collegiate hurler took the hill as starting pitcher for his team in a critical Super Regionals game. Both were televised on ESPN. And on top of all that, the draft prospects know they were making their closing arguments for the distinction (and signing bonus) of becoming the first player taken Monday. For their teams and for them personally, the stakes could not have been higher for McKay and Wright. McKay rose to the occasion in a big way, leading his Louisville Cardinals to a series-clinching victory over Kentucky with 6 2/3 scoreless innings. His impressive performance came on the heels of this report from MLB.com's Jim Callis: "Though the teams selecting behind the Twins think they're leaning toward Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, I started hearing whispers Thursday night that Minnesota prefers Louisville two-way star Brendan McKay. That noise is getting louder Friday, and I now believe the Twins will take McKay No. 1, as a left-handed pitcher rather than a first baseman, unless California high school righty Hunter Greene overwhelms them in his visit to Target Field on Friday afternoon." Did Greene overwhelm them? Will McKay's final impression push him over the edge? And how did Wright's Saturday evening go in an elimination game against a daunting opponent? The latest on all three, below (click names for full in-depth profiles): Brendan McKay: LHP/1B, Louisville While cruising through his outing against Kentucky, McKay didn't flash the kind of velocity that catches your eye, but showed immense polish. He struck out nine and walked none, looking much like a guy who could go out and get it done on a big-league mound right now. McKay peppered the zone with good breaking balls, and is putting the finishing touches on a two-way collegiate career for the ages. Though he went 0-for-5 at the plate, his abilities at the plate as a lefty-hitting first baseman are well established. That would be less useful in the American League but there's a real possibility he could be a pinch-hitting option between starts, a la Madison Bumgarner. McKay's jump to the head of the pack, if the Callis report is accurate, comes after weeks of speculation that Wright was the favorite. Kyle Wright: RHP, Vanderbilt Wright had his work cut out for him, guiding his unranked Commodores against the nation's No. 1 team, Oregon State. He battled 6 2/3 innings, and while the numbers don't impress – he was charged with seven earned runs, three coming on a big homer in the third inning – he threw pitches with a ton of life while showing smooth and consistent mechanics. It's hard to hold the way he finished against him; Wright loaded the bases and walked in a run before being pulled at 122 pitches (two more would score afterward, adding to his ledger). He was laboring but answering the call as the ace of a team on the brink of elimination. There was plenty to like about the righty's outing, in which he struck out eight and threw some truly filthy sliders. Mike Berardino's comparison to a young Kevin Brown seems apt in many ways. Wright has everything you look for in a prospective frontline starting pitcher, and he could speed through the minors. As I wrote last week, his potential for rapid ascent would be a nice timeline fit for a team that appears to be at the front end of its contention window. Despite the recent steam for McKay, I still see Wright as the most likely pick. It's this simple: the Twins need fast-tracked pitching and he is pretty clearly the best college arm in the country. Historically, those are fairly safe picks. McKay, by the admission of his own coach at Louisville, may not be the best pitcher or hitter in college baseball (he places the two-way star "top three to five" in both categories). In contrasting the clear-cut top two collegiate talents in the nation, the choice seems fairly clear to me. But then there's Greene, who makes as strong a case to be taken first overall as any prep right-handed pitcher has in history. And he put it all on display during a Friday workout in Minneapolis late last week. Hunter Greene: RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS (Sherman Oaks, CA) As expected, and as usual, Greene wowed onlookers during a session at Target Field on Friday. He reportedly hit 101 MPH from the mound and put on show at the plate, launching four home runs. The 17-year-old oozes potential, and a level of upside that few draft prospects in recent history could match. It feels like, if the Twins pass on him, we will be doomed to a future of "what-ifs." We'll follow his progression closely, lamenting every fast promotion and extraordinary achievement. Of course, on the flip side, if they pass and Greene doesn't work out, the front office ultimately comes away looking really, really good. This kid has a set of skills and tools rarely seen on the diamond. He gave the Twins a final reminder of that on Friday. If they choose to go another direction, it's on them, for better or worse. OTHER POSSIBILITIES? There remains a distinct chance that Minnesota could pass on all three of the names above. If they're not enamored with McKay, Wright or Greene as a true No. 1 talent, then they could aim to strike a deal with someone slightly lower on the board to save pool money on one of their ensuing picks. Jeremy Nygaard explained how this might work in his latest edition of The Scouting Skinny, which went out to newsletter subscribers last week. Basically, we keep hearing that that the Twins have six players on their radar for the first pick, not just the three mentioned above. The idea is that by signing someone like MacKenzie Gore or Pavin Smith, who wouldn't normally be under consideration at the top, the Twins could sign that player below slot and then have more money available for bonuses at, say, No. 35 or No. 37. This was the approach Philadelphia took last year, signing No. 1 pick Mickey Moniak for about $3 million under slot and then luring their second pick, prep righty Kevin Gowdy, away from a UCLA commitment by offering almost double the slotted amount at No. 42. This turns our attention toward a subject we haven't yet broached in this primer: Minnesota has two more picks within the Top 40, and those also figure to be of enormous importance. It gets cumbersome to preview and break down those selections, because the number of realistic candidates goes from a handful to several dozen, but there is one name in particular that people around the Twins Cities will be following very closely. LOCAL ANGLE He is not in consideration to go first overall, but it sounds like the Twins would be more than happy to grab Burnsville's Sam Carlson if he makes it back to them at 35. This seems unlikely. The big right-hander ranks 15th on MLB.com's board and 21st on Baseball America's. He's in the conversation for best high school arm in the country, and reports suggest many teams are eyeing him in the first round. But Carlson has a scholarship from the University of Florida in his pocket, so money talks. For Minnesota to have a realistic shot at Carlson, it would require him slipping – probably due to signability concerns – and the Twins having extra cash in hand from cutting a deal at No. 1 to alleviate such concerns. Something to keep an eye on. LATEST PREDICTIONS Here's what the most recent mocks from major prospect publications are projecting for Monday: Baseball America Mock Draft 4.0 Twins #1 pick: Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt) Twins #35 pick: Brent Rooker, 1B (Mississippi State) Keith Law (ESPN) Mock Draft 3.0 Twins #1 pick: Brendan McKay, LHP/1B (Louisville) Bleacher Report Twins #1 pick: Brendan McKay, LHP/1B (Louisville) CBS Sports Twins #1 pick: Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt) Jeremy Nygaard/Twins Daily Twins #1 pick: Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt) Twins #35 pick: Blayne Enlow, RHP (LA prep) Twins #37 pick: Jacob Heatherly, LHP (AL prep) Twins #76 pick: Riley Adams, C (University of San DIego) Twins #106 pick: Michael Baumann, RHP (Jacksonville University) Twins #136 pick: Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP (University of Missouri) Twins #166 pick: Seth Lonsway, LHP (OH prep) Twins #196 pick: Griff McGarry, RHP (CA prep) Twins #226 pick: Dalton Guthrie, SS (University of Florida) Twins #256 pick: J.J. Schwarz, C (University of Florida) Twins #288 pick: Reed Rohlman, OF (Clemson University) MORE TWINS DAILY COVERAGE Check out Jeremy Nygaard's 10-round Twins mock draft to learn more about the players listed above. Previous Draft Profiles: Draft Profile: Hunter Greene, SP/SS by Nick Nelson Draft Profile: Kyle Wright, SP by Jeremy Nygaard Draft Profile: Brendan McKay, SP/1B by Cody Christie Draft Profile: MacKenzie Gore, LHP by Steve Lein Draft Profile: Royce Lewis, SS/OF by Nick Nelson Draft Profile: Pavin Smith, 1B by Tom Froemming Click here to view the article

Great article format. Love this. Nice work Tom!

The hype is real for Hunter Greene. At age 17, he has already attained legendary status, gracing a Sports Illustrated cover with the magazine hailing him as the star baseball needs. Baseball's LeBron James or the new Babe Ruth? Those comparisons aren't made lightly. It would seem that Greene, a two-way phenom who throws 100 MPH on the mound and dominates at shortstop, is a no-brainer at No. 1 overall. But he's not. Far from it.Who Is He? We have been following Greene for a long time here on Twins Daily. Ever since the 2016 season ended and Minnesota officially claimed the top pick in this June's draft, he has fronted the list of candidates to become their selection. Many months later, he remains in the high esteem of scouts and analysts. Baseball America has him at the top of their board. So does MLB.com. The reasons are evident. As a pitcher, Greene has the makings of a generational stud. His fastball has been clocked at triple digits many times, and he routinely maintains high-90s velocity deep into games. What's more, he brings this heat with an easy motion that doesn't raise alarms about mechanical issues down the line. In his prep career with Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, CA, Greene posted a 1.62 ERA over 121 innings. As a senior he struck out 41 percent of the batters he faced. He belongs in the conversation for best high school right-hander ever. And then there is the other side of his game. Greene is also a smooth defensive shortstop, one who obviously has the arm to make every throw. He swings hard and generates a ton of power. There's a general belief that he could easily be an all-star as a position player, even if he doesn't stick at short. However, in that capacity Greene is more first-round pick material than first pick material. Here are some highlights via LA Daily News from his 2017 debut for Notre Dame, in which he blew several hitters away from the hill and ripped a grand slam at the plate: Greene has a commitment to UCLA but it's highly unlikely he'll honor it, unless things go awry and he falls out of the top three. Why The Twins Will Pick Him I mean, how do you pass this up? The Twins could desperately use an elite pitching prospect in their pipeline, and Greene has a chance to become THE elite pitching prospect very quickly. If he maintains his purported ability to work in the upper 90s with good command throughout entire starts, and he develops his secondary offerings at all, he can transform into an MLB rotation-fronter in fairly short order. You miss on that, and go with a safer collegiate option who proves to be merely good (or not even), and it's a mistake that haunts for many years to come. These are the stakes for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, just nine months into the job. They recognize this, and their scouts have been all over Greene every step of the way. He has been analyzed from every angle, by numerous sets of eyes. If the Twins, through their rigorous evaluations, agree with the widely held opinion that Greene is essentially a can't-miss – particularly with the fallback as a talented position player should pitching not work out – then they will take him. Why The Twins Will Not Pick Him Unless we're getting smokescreens, it would appear the Twins are in fact not reaching that conclusion. In mid-May, USA TODAY's Bob Nightengale tweeted that the Twins were "leaning toward passing on" Greene. Ten days later, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported this more firmly, "barring a late change." If true, it's not clear what would happen to reverse their mindset at this stage, other than someone else on the board getting hurt. Here's the thing: Greene is really, really risky. And with the aforementioned stakes at play, it may just be too much risk to handle at this pick. No right-handed prep pitcher has ever gone first overall, and there is a reason for it: they are really difficult to project from this stage. Kohl Stewart was considered the best high school hurler in the nation when the Twins took him fourth overall in 2013. His stuff never developed enough to dominate in the pros, however, and four years later he's completely off the prospect radar. The following year, Tyler Kolek – a Texas HS righty who, like Greene, was known for his eye-popping velocity as a teen – went second overall to Miami. He required Tommy John surgery at the age of 20, and is still now rehabbing. When he has pitched, the numbers haven't been good. Greene is on a higher plane than either, to be sure, but the cautionary tales still resonate. And like any high school player, he has question marks. Opinions differ on whether his secondary pitches are up to par. Commanding the zone at his level of competition is vastly different from doing so against professional hitters. And while he is well built physically, with relatively sound mechanics, you cannot help but wonder how throwing hundreds of 95-plus MPH pitches at such a young age is cumulatively affecting his arm. The Twins, and other organizations, haven't seen that arm in action since mid-April, when Greene was shut down for precautionary reasons. There's simply a lot more data available on guys like Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay. This new front office likes data. Then again, everyone likes triple-digit heat and seemingly endless potential. Will Greene's uniquely high ceiling rule out? Or have the Twins seen enough in their extensive examinations to scare them away? Reports suggest the latter, but we shall see how it plays out on Monday. Make sure to check out Jeremy Nygaard's 10-round Twins mock draft. He's been known to get a few right in the past. Previous Draft Profiles: Brendan McKay, SP/1B by Cody Christie Royce Lewis, SS/OF by Nick Nelson Pavin Smith, 1B by Tom Froemming Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins will select first in the MLB Draft next Monday, and right now, signs point to them choosing Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright. You'll be able to read an in-depth profile of Wright here from draft guru Jeremy Nygaard on Thursday, but for today let's jump forward and contemplate how the collegiate ace would fit in for a rebuilding Twins franchise.Obviously anything can change in the next week, but right now all indications point to Minnesota passing on heralded prep phenom Hunter Greene at No. 1 overall. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have undoubtedly received countless glowing scouting reports, and seen his unique greatness on display in person, but ultimately it appears the upside/risk balance is too heavily skewed for a pick that could well define their tenure. That leaves college stars Wright and Brendan McKay as the remaining members of the consensus top three. Everything I'm hearing leads me to believe the Twins are leaning away from McKay, a two-way threat with some questions on both sides. Wright is who Baseball America has the Twins taking in their latest mock. Ditto Keith Law of ESPN. And our guy Jeremy. The signs are pretty clear. The Twins have been all over the 6-foot-4 righty for many months and have watched him hit his stride leading up to the draft, including a nine-strikeout performance against Clemson in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday that saw him touching 95-96 MPH as late as the sixth inning. Wright is a big-time talent, and as a more defined commodity than Greene or McKay, he carries less relative risk. There is also this: If the Twins feel they are currently at the front end of their rebuild coming to fruition, Wright fits rather nicely into the timeline they have going. Jose Berrios has arrived, and shows no signs of wanting to go back. Adalberto Mejia is flashing very positive signs. Minnesota has the beginnings of a young stable to move forward with, but obviously they'll need plenty more. The organization's top two prospects are not far away. Fernando Romero is coming on at Chattanooga following an inconsistent start. He has allowed two earned runs with a 20-to-5 K/BB ratio in 19 innings over his past three turns. Meanwhile, Stephen Gonsalves has joined him in the Lookouts rotation after shoulder issues cost him the first six weeks. He lowered his ERA to 2.45 with five shutout frames in his fourth start Monday. Romero and Gonsalves both are 22. Wright, as a 21-year-old college product, would probably head straight to Single-A upon signing. If things play out the right way he could be reaching the majors very shortly after they do, if not simultaneously. For some context, here's what the timeline looks like if you get it right with a collegiate ace at the No. 1 pick: In June 6th, 2011, the Pirates took Gerrit Cole (UCLA) first overall. His major-league debut came two years and five days later, on June 11th, 2013. He was immediately very good. On June 9th, 2009, the Nationals took Stephen Strasburg (SDSU) first overall. His major-league debut came 364 days later, on June 8th, 2010. He was immediately very good. On June 7th, 2007, the Rays took David Price (Vanderbilt, just like Wright) first overall. His major-league debut came in September of 2008. He was – yep – immediately very good. Now, obviously, these are lofty examples but Wright is an advanced arm with all of the attributes you're looking for. If the Twins feel he has a shot to follow that precedent and rocket to the big leagues, it would be quite favorable in the scope of their big-picture contention efforts. Is he that guy? You can draw your own conclusions when Jeremy gives you the full breakdown later this week. In the meantime, check out the rest of our latest coverage previewing Minnesota's top pick next Monday: Jeremy's 10 Round Twins Mock Draft Profile: Brendan McKay, SP/1B by Cody Christie Draft Profile: Royce Lewis, SS/OF by Nick Nelson Draft Profile: Pavin Smith, 1B by Tom Froemming Click here to view the article

The Twins bullpen situation has turned catastrophic, and there's nothing to be gained by wringing hands over how we got here. These are the facts: Minnesota is above .500 and very much in the mix as we enter June, but the Twins won't likely hang around unless they do something to address the relief corps. That "something" doesn't need to be drastic nor detrimental to the big picture.The Twins aren't in any position to make an Andrew Miller-type splash, and would be ill-advised to dangle any of their better prospects – even a Chih-Wei Hu type – for relief help (insofar as any high-impact relievers are being made available this far from the deadline). In order to meaningfully improve their chances in the late innings, the front office might need to get creative. Sure, they can try someone like Alan Busenitz or Trevor Hildenberger, but you can't just count on green rookies with iffy scouting reports to come up and shut down the eighth inning. By the same token, newly promoted farmhands Alex Wimmers and Randy Rosario are more band aids than plugs. The following suggestions are aimed at creating a more dramatic short-term impact, without forfeiting anything of import. Move Phil Hughes to the Bullpen Hughes is currently on the disabled list but there have been indications he won't stay there too terribly long. When he returns, the Twins might be wise to bring him back in a relief role. There are multiple beneficial outcomes this route could achieve. His fastball has been humming in at the lowest velocity of his career, and getting pounded as a result. It's possible Hughes could add a few ticks in shorter stints. Of course, he's had tremendous success out of the bullpen before, serving as Mariano Rivera's top setup man when the Yankees won the World Series in 2009. Hughes' numbers that season: 86 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 96/28 K/BB. He isn't likely to regain that level of superior efficacy, especially not right away, but maybe Hughes will surprise us. He has the command and poise that so many other Twins relievers are lacking, so even a slight uptick in heat – and perhaps a reduced reliance on his lesser offerings – could make a big difference. Swap Tyler Duffey and Brandon Kintzler This isn't so much a denouncement of what either right-hander has done in his current role – they've been the bullpen's two best weapons – as it is an assertion they may be best suited for a reversal. Kintzler has done an admirable job in the ninth, but always struck me as a guy better equipped for the middle innings. His penchant for inducing ground balls on command would make him an excellent fireman, called upon in a tough spot with runners on base. He has also proven fairly durable, and could likely handle multiple innings on a frequent basis. Meanwhile, Duffey is much more of a prototypical closer, with his bat-missing stuff, and has experience in the role from his collegiate days at Rice University. Call up Fernando Romero Minnesota's legit relief prospects can't seem to get healthy. Nick Burdi is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. JT Chargois went on the disabled list in April with an elbow impingement and still hasn't returned. Tyler Jay missed the first seven weeks with a shoulder injury, came back a week ago, made two appearances and then landed back on the DL. I'm starting to lose hope that any of these guys will be available to the Twins at any point this year. That's a huge problem because they are THE minor-league arms that could actually bring game-changing shutdown ability to the table. If the Twins want to find that now, they may need to consider calling up Romero from Double-A. Twins Daily's No. 1 prospect has gotten on a roll in Chattanooga lately, firing 12 scoreless innings over his past two starts, and as someone who works in the mid-90s as a starter he could really dial it up in short stints. The additional benefit is that this might help manage the 22-year-old's workload; he's already more than halfway to last season's total of 90 innings. The downside is that it would essentially remove him as a potential rotation reinforcement, unless the coaching staff wanted to stretch him out after he arrives. (Wouldn't be the first time.) Mine for Spare Parts in Other Organizations While we've ruled out giving up a prospect of Wilson Ramos' or even Hu's caliber, the Twins might be able to inherit a project that some other organization is ready to give up on. Maybe there is a fifth/sixth starter out there that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view as a particularly good candidate for a role switch. Or perhaps there is a Michael Tonkin or Ryan Pressly type, with big stuff and disappointing results, who they believe they can turn around with a specific fix. The cost of such an acquisition would be negligible. It would be a good opportunity for the new regime, especially Falvey with his reputation as an innovative pitching mind, to flex some muscle. What are your creative fixes for Minnesota's wayward bullpen? Click here to view the article