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  1. Here's another fact to chew on: since the start of 2016, Kintzler's 15.0% K rate ranks fifth-worse among relievers with 60+ IP. Two other pitchers in the bottom 15 on that list opened this season as their team's closers: Jeanmar Gomez (PHI) and Sam Dyson (TEX). Both have already lost their jobs after immense early struggles.
  2. I figured some might see it this way. True story though: I usually post on Wednesdays and switched with Seth this week to take Thursday, so I already that this post written well ahead of last night's game and it was going up today either way. I mean, Kintzler has done absolutely nothing to deserve losing the job up to this point. So if we're talking about fairness, I'm not sure stripping him of closer duties based on the things discussed here adds up. But my hope is that the manager recognizes his ill-fitting skill set and keeps the leash short. Of course, that requires having a replacement on hand.
  3. When you look at this Twins team, hovering around .500 after a month of play in a mediocre division, it's not all that hard to see them hanging in the race throughout the summer. The rotation should remain respectable at least, with legitimate options on hand to replace faltering starters and Big Erv leading the way. The offense, powered by Miguel Sano, also can sustain as above-average – maybe better if Byron Buxton keeps coming on and Joe Mauer gets it going. The one unit that fails to inspire much confidence at this point is, ironically enough, one that has experienced few misfires thus far. Despite its sufficiency up to this point, the back end of Minnesota's bullpen is quite suspect.No one can take away from Brandon Kintzler what he has accomplished in the closer role thus far. He was extremely reliable after taking over for Glen Perkins last year, at least up until a September slide, and he's been nails over the first four weeks of 2017. Through 12 appearances Kintzler has held opponents to a .227 average while converting all seven of his save chances. He has shown tremendous poise on the mound, buckling down in tense situations and making big pitches when needed. But poise only goes so far, and ultimately there are a number of signs suggesting that the veteran righty is on precarious footing in the ninth inning. Entering Wednesday's game, he had been benefiting from a .188 BABIP, stranding 100 percent of base-runners. Those kinds of fortuitous trends simply do not sustain, and we saw a glimpse of it in his rocky ninth inning against Oakland last night. This isn't to say a complete collapse is necessarily imminent, but the same weaknesses that always made Kintzler an iffy bet for the closer job persist, and eventually they're going to become problematic. Mainly, there is the sky-high contact rate. Last year, Kintzler finished 124th out of 130 relievers (min 50 IP) in K-rate at 15.6 percent. Early this year he has moved in the wrong direction despite an uptick in velocity, with his six strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings equating to a 12 percent clip. When so many batters are putting the ball in play, hits are going to start bleeding through even if you're limiting hard contact and getting ground balls. Again, this doesn't mean Kintzler is going to fall off a cliff, because he has some legit skills that compensate for the lack of whiffs. But when you're relying on batted balls finding gloves so much, there are inevitably going to be costly mishaps with the stakes so high and the margins so thin. I feel he's better suited for a middle relief or setup role and I do believe that eventually the Twins are going to reach the same conclusion. It might take some turbulence to get there, but unless Kintzler can fundamentally change his peripheral composition, it's almost bound to happen. And when it does, where do the Twins go? This leads us to a more troubling matter, which is the lack of quality late-inning depth behind Kintzler. Ryan Pressly was bringing gas in spring training, leading some to conclude he might succeed Kintzler in the closer role at some point this summer. Pressly is indeed throwing harder than ever this season, with a lively fastball averaging nearly 96 MPH in April, but he's still failing to establish himself as a truly dominant reliever. Last year Pressly's numbers were more good than great and he appears to be headed down that same path. His slider, despite its premium velocity, hasn't been a very strong pitch for him and he's been reluctant to throw it. And opponents are generating hard contact, with six of the nine hits he's allowed going for extra bases. Tyler Duffey might have the stuff for the task, but the team still seems to be wavering on his destiny as a starter or reliever. Matt Belisle is making a case for less leverage instead of more, with his best asset – control – looking shaky in the early going (with seven walks, he has already matched year's total in 40 appearances). Michael Tonkin is probably on the verge of being designated for assignment. So we turn to the minors. JT Chargois is the best candidate in line to take over a ninth-inning role, given that he's done it successfully at every level. He's a closer in waiting. But now he's on the disabled list with an elbow impingement, which sounds a little ominous for someone who's had his battles with arm issues. Tyler Jay, another former collegiate closer who seemingly moved onto the fast track when the organization switched him back to a relief role this spring, still hasn't pitched in a game due to biceps tendinitis. A promising relief pipeline stalling out due to health and performance setbacks? Stop me if you've heard it before. One way or another, the Twins need some options to emerge. The back end of the bullpen is likely to become a problem soon and right now there is a shortage of options available to address it. Click here to view the article
  4. No one can take away from Brandon Kintzler what he has accomplished in the closer role thus far. He was extremely reliable after taking over for Glen Perkins last year, at least up until a September slide, and he's been nails over the first four weeks of 2017. Through 12 appearances Kintzler has held opponents to a .227 average while converting all seven of his save chances. He has shown tremendous poise on the mound, buckling down in tense situations and making big pitches when needed. But poise only goes so far, and ultimately there are a number of signs suggesting that the veteran righty is on precarious footing in the ninth inning. Entering Wednesday's game, he had been benefiting from a .188 BABIP, stranding 100 percent of base-runners. Those kinds of fortuitous trends simply do not sustain, and we saw a glimpse of it in his rocky ninth inning against Oakland last night. This isn't to say a complete collapse is necessarily imminent, but the same weaknesses that always made Kintzler an iffy bet for the closer job persist, and eventually they're going to become problematic. Mainly, there is the sky-high contact rate. Last year, Kintzler finished 124th out of 130 relievers (min 50 IP) in K-rate at 15.6 percent. Early this year he has moved in the wrong direction despite an uptick in velocity, with his six strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings equating to a 12 percent clip. When so many batters are putting the ball in play, hits are going to start bleeding through even if you're limiting hard contact and getting ground balls. Again, this doesn't mean Kintzler is going to fall off a cliff, because he has some legit skills that compensate for the lack of whiffs. But when you're relying on batted balls finding gloves so much, there are inevitably going to be costly mishaps with the stakes so high and the margins so thin. I feel he's better suited for a middle relief or setup role and I do believe that eventually the Twins are going to reach the same conclusion. It might take some turbulence to get there, but unless Kintzler can fundamentally change his peripheral composition, it's almost bound to happen. And when it does, where do the Twins go? This leads us to a more troubling matter, which is the lack of quality late-inning depth behind Kintzler. Ryan Pressly was bringing gas in spring training, leading some to conclude he might succeed Kintzler in the closer role at some point this summer. Pressly is indeed throwing harder than ever this season, with a lively fastball averaging nearly 96 MPH in April, but he's still failing to establish himself as a truly dominant reliever. Last year Pressly's numbers were more good than great and he appears to be headed down that same path. His slider, despite its premium velocity, hasn't been a very strong pitch for him and he's been reluctant to throw it. And opponents are generating hard contact, with six of the nine hits he's allowed going for extra bases. Tyler Duffey might have the stuff for the task, but the team still seems to be wavering on his destiny as a starter or reliever. Matt Belisle is making a case for less leverage instead of more, with his best asset – control – looking shaky in the early going (with seven walks, he has already matched year's total in 40 appearances). Michael Tonkin is probably on the verge of being designated for assignment. So we turn to the minors. JT Chargois is the best candidate in line to take over a ninth-inning role, given that he's done it successfully at every level. He's a closer in waiting. But now he's on the disabled list with an elbow impingement, which sounds a little ominous for someone who's had his battles with arm issues. Tyler Jay, another former collegiate closer who seemingly moved onto the fast track when the organization switched him back to a relief role this spring, still hasn't pitched in a game due to biceps tendinitis. A promising relief pipeline stalling out due to health and performance setbacks? Stop me if you've heard it before. One way or another, the Twins need some options to emerge. The back end of the bullpen is likely to become a problem soon and right now there is a shortage of options available to address it.
  5. Home runs don't count as balls in play so that's also a factor. In the case of someone like Barry Bonds, that's an awful lot of hits that aren't figuring into BABIP.
  6. I've long been a believer in Miguel Sano's transcendent talent. His prodigious major-league debut at age 22 only reinforced that belief, to the point where I felt emboldened to predict the Dominican slugger would win AL MVP in his second season with the Twins. I was wrong. Very wrong. But... maybe just a little early on the call?There were many astonishing aspects of Sano's rookie campaign in 2015, which included a .916 OPS and 18 homers in just 80 games. Of course, those numbers were stellar, but there were deeper indicators of an elite offensive player in the making. Specifically, I'm talking about his uncommonly advanced approach at the plate. As an MLB newbie, Sano worked the count full in a higher fraction of his plate appearances than Joey Votto or Mike Trout. And once he got there he capitalized, posting a 1.281 OPS against 3-2 offerings. That's the sign of a dominating hitter, evidenced by the fact that Votto and Trout were the qualified leaders in their respective leagues. In the same season where Byron Buxton was reminding us how difficult and demoralizing the task of facing MLB pitching can be, even for the most gifted of players, Sano was making it look easy. He had the designs of a 40-homer slugger and premier run producer. Maybe, I thought, as soon as his first full season. It wasn't meant to be. A number of different factors contributed to a trying sophomore campaign. I don't know how to individually weigh the various things that played him against him – starting the year in the outfield, dealing with adjustments from opposing pitchers, battling injuries, maybe not putting in the necessary work – but it all likely played a part. The result was a disappointing (though hardly terrible) season in which Sano nearly set an all-time record for strikeout rate. Perturbingly, his line on full counts dropped from .240/.581/.700 to .123/.373/.288. The first month of 2017 represented a resounding return to form for Sano. In 23 games, he batted .316/.443/.684 with seven homers and 25 RBI. His strikeout rate is down a tad (all he needs, really) while his walk rate is higher than Bryce Harper's or Paul Goldschmidt's. Sano is once again controlling the zone at a remarkable level. And when he's hitting the ball, he is hitting it HARD. According to MLB's StatCast data, Sano leads all of baseball in average exit velocity, and is the only player in triple digits. He is smashing everything, and that was evident enough on Friday night. In a game where Royals starter Ian Kennedy was stingy with the hits, Miggy delivered a big one in the fourth, putting a beautiful swing on an outside fastball and sending it over the fence in right. Later, he came through a with a game-breaking drive in the eighth with the bases loaded, facing another hot pitcher (Joakim Soria hadn't allowed an extra-base hit all year) and taking him off the top of the wall in left. Sano narrowly missed a grand slam but his two-run double knotted the score and set up another one for Mauer that proved decisive. Then on Sunday, he added another mammoth homer and drove in five, carrying the Twins offense in a 7-5 victory that pushed the team's final April record above .500. A year ago they were 10 games under at this time. Hey, it's only one month. But there's nothing superficial about Sano's immense success thus far. Every underlying element suggests that his emergence as one of baseball's best hitters is completely legitimate. He is swinging less at pitches outside of the zone, and more in the zone. He is blasting rockets to all fields. He is rising to the occasion in big spots. Oh, and on top of it all, he's looking pretty damn decent defensively over at third base. MVP? If he keeps up at this rate, he'll easily be in the conversation. But either way, Sano is establishing himself as a star and there is a sense that he's only getting started. Giddy up. Click here to view the article
  7. There were many astonishing aspects of Sano's rookie campaign in 2015, which included a .916 OPS and 18 homers in just 80 games. Of course, those numbers were stellar, but there were deeper indicators of an elite offensive player in the making. Specifically, I'm talking about his uncommonly advanced approach at the plate. As an MLB newbie, Sano worked the count full in a higher fraction of his plate appearances than Joey Votto or Mike Trout. And once he got there he capitalized, posting a 1.281 OPS against 3-2 offerings. That's the sign of a dominating hitter, evidenced by the fact that Votto and Trout were the qualified leaders in their respective leagues. In the same season where Byron Buxton was reminding us how difficult and demoralizing the task of facing MLB pitching can be, even for the most gifted of players, Sano was making it look easy. He had the designs of a 40-homer slugger and premier run producer. Maybe, I thought, as soon as his first full season. It wasn't meant to be. A number of different factors contributed to a trying sophomore campaign. I don't know how to individually weigh the various things that played him against him – starting the year in the outfield, dealing with adjustments from opposing pitchers, battling injuries, maybe not putting in the necessary work – but it all likely played a part. The result was a disappointing (though hardly terrible) season in which Sano nearly set an all-time record for strikeout rate. Perturbingly, his line on full counts dropped from .240/.581/.700 to .123/.373/.288. The first month of 2017 represented a resounding return to form for Sano. In 23 games, he batted .316/.443/.684 with seven homers and 25 RBI. His strikeout rate is down a tad (all he needs, really) while his walk rate is higher than Bryce Harper's or Paul Goldschmidt's. Sano is once again controlling the zone at a remarkable level. And when he's hitting the ball, he is hitting it HARD. According to MLB's StatCast data, Sano leads all of baseball in average exit velocity, and is the only player in triple digits. He is smashing everything, and that was evident enough on Friday night. In a game where Royals starter Ian Kennedy was stingy with the hits, Miggy delivered a big one in the fourth, putting a beautiful swing on an outside fastball and sending it over the fence in right. Later, he came through a with a game-breaking drive in the eighth with the bases loaded, facing another hot pitcher (Joakim Soria hadn't allowed an extra-base hit all year) and taking him off the top of the wall in left. Sano narrowly missed a grand slam but his two-run double knotted the score and set up another one for Mauer that proved decisive. Then on Sunday, he added another mammoth homer and drove in five, carrying the Twins offense in a 7-5 victory that pushed the team's final April record above .500. A year ago they were 10 games under at this time. Hey, it's only one month. But there's nothing superficial about Sano's immense success thus far. Every underlying element suggests that his emergence as one of baseball's best hitters is completely legitimate. He is swinging less at pitches outside of the zone, and more in the zone. He is blasting rockets to all fields. He is rising to the occasion in big spots. Oh, and on top of it all, he's looking pretty damn decent defensively over at third base. MVP? If he keeps up at this rate, he'll easily be in the conversation. But either way, Sano is establishing himself as a star and there is a sense that he's only getting started. Giddy up.
  8. His metrics in those 400 innings were beyond horrendous and they matched the eye test. It's one thing to start giving a guy some experience at another position if you think he might end up there. It's another thing to start playing him there exclusively, giving him zero reps at SS, especially when there's nothing resembling a top prospect occupying the position. To say the concerns over Polanco at SS are "literally based on nothing" is outrageous. Twins officials have acknowledged and validated those concerns on plenty of occasions.
  9. Good stuff. The left side of the infield has definitely been a very pleasant surprise. Big part of the reason the Twins are now 4th in defensive efficiency rating after finishing second-to-last in 2016.
  10. Phil Hughes has a reputation around the game as a guy who will constantly experiment, tweak and tinker with his game in efforts to improve and gain an edge. We have certainly seen that early on this year, as he has introduced a prominent changeup to his repertoire while waiting for his fastball to (hopefully) regain life. Although the righty's lagging stuff is a cause for concern, his cerebral approach and superior feel for pitching provide some reassurance, and they were on display once again in his victory over the Rangers on Monday.In the eyes of some, Hughes' start in Detroit on May 17th of last year was deserving of criticism – the sign of a player who wasn't invested in a team that had already gone off the rails. As you might recall, the righty had gotten through 6 1/3 innings with one run allowed before reportedly pulling himself at 75 pitches during a mound visit, giving way to a bullpen collapse that led to a lopsided loss. Whether Hughes asked out or simply allowed Paul Molitor to take the ball from him, various fans and members of the media – particularly those of the old-school bulldog mindset – implied that the incident demonstrated softness. No fiery competitor would willingly leave a close game in which he was seemingly in control at that pitch count. Right? I saw it differently, and wrote as much at the time. Noting that Hughes clearly didn't have much that night, I commended him for recognizing that he was out of gas and letting the manager go to fresh arms for the last eight outs. It didn't work out, but it easily may not have worked out the other way. Hughes put up a 6.61 ERA while allowing a 1.011 OPS over his next four starts, then broke his leg, and then underwent thoracic outlet surgery to address a longstanding shoulder issue that had sapped his pitches of zip and left him to rely upon control and guile to navigate through outings. Sometimes, it worked. More often, it didn't, as his increasingly unsatisfactory numbers in 2015 and 2016 showed. The early portion of his 2017 season has been reminiscent of those last two campaigns. Nine months removed from his operation, Hughes hasn't gotten his fastball back, not yet anyway. Through four starts, his heater has been registering under 90 MPH on average per FanGraphs, lower than any other point in his big league career and nearly three full ticks below where he was at during that sensational 2014 season. It seems the veteran had been preparing himself for such a reality. During spring training, one big storyline was his heavy usage of the changeup, a pitch he'd rarely thrown in 10 MLB seasons. "You're always trying to stay ahead," Hughes said after one Grapefruit start in which he threw the pitch a ton. "I don't just want to hope that I come back healthy and surgery did its job and I'm back to where I was. "I wanted to do something proactively to facilitate that ... I truly believe that adding a changeup is going to do nothing but help." Indeed, Hughes has gone to the change an unprecedented 20 percent of the time thus far while greatly reducing reliance upon his fastball, seemingly an acknowledgement that his top pitch isn't close to where it needs to be. To that end, the 30-year-old told Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage recently that he's been trying to add spin to his fastball so as to get more out of it. While the overall results haven't been great – he has a 4.71 ERA and hasn't yet pitched past the sixth – Hughes is certainly out-pitching his stuff, which is frankly just plain unimpressive. On Monday in Texas, he managed to induce only one swinging strike on 86 pitches, but still battled his way through six innings of two-run ball en route to his third victory in four turns. It was the same kind of crafty and gritty outing as we saw on that evening in Detroit last May – right down to the skepticism about his coming out on a low pitch count. This is both a good and bad thing. It's nice to see Hughes craftily finding ways to get the job done while lacking much sizzle on his pitches. But that lack of sizzle is certainly troubling, and as long as his arsenal continues to drag, every start is going to be an adventure. Hopefully, as he further distances himself from surgery, Hughes will gradually regain arm strength and the velocity will begin to creep upward. Until the fastball catches up, he'll need to keep searching for ways to stay ahead. Click here to view the article
  11. In the eyes of some, Hughes' start in Detroit on May 17th of last year was deserving of criticism – the sign of a player who wasn't invested in a team that had already gone off the rails. As you might recall, the righty had gotten through 6 1/3 innings with one run allowed before reportedly pulling himself at 75 pitches during a mound visit, giving way to a bullpen collapse that led to a lopsided loss. Whether Hughes asked out or simply allowed Paul Molitor to take the ball from him, various fans and members of the media – particularly those of the old-school bulldog mindset – implied that the incident demonstrated softness. No fiery competitor would willingly leave a close game in which he was seemingly in control at that pitch count. Right? I saw it differently, and wrote as much at the time. Noting that Hughes clearly didn't have much that night, I commended him for recognizing that he was out of gas and letting the manager go to fresh arms for the last eight outs. It didn't work out, but it easily may not have worked out the other way. Hughes put up a 6.61 ERA while allowing a 1.011 OPS over his next four starts, then broke his leg, and then underwent thoracic outlet surgery to address a longstanding shoulder issue that had sapped his pitches of zip and left him to rely upon control and guile to navigate through outings. Sometimes, it worked. More often, it didn't, as his increasingly unsatisfactory numbers in 2015 and 2016 showed. The early portion of his 2017 season has been reminiscent of those last two campaigns. Nine months removed from his operation, Hughes hasn't gotten his fastball back, not yet anyway. Through four starts, his heater has been registering under 90 MPH on average per FanGraphs, lower than any other point in his big league career and nearly three full ticks below where he was at during that sensational 2014 season. It seems the veteran had been preparing himself for such a reality. During spring training, one big storyline was his heavy usage of the changeup, a pitch he'd rarely thrown in 10 MLB seasons. "You're always trying to stay ahead," Hughes said after one Grapefruit start in which he threw the pitch a ton. "I don't just want to hope that I come back healthy and surgery did its job and I'm back to where I was. "I wanted to do something proactively to facilitate that ... I truly believe that adding a changeup is going to do nothing but help." Indeed, Hughes has gone to the change an unprecedented 20 percent of the time thus far while greatly reducing reliance upon his fastball, seemingly an acknowledgement that his top pitch isn't close to where it needs to be. To that end, the 30-year-old told Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage recently that he's been trying to add spin to his fastball so as to get more out of it. While the overall results haven't been great – he has a 4.71 ERA and hasn't yet pitched past the sixth – Hughes is certainly out-pitching his stuff, which is frankly just plain unimpressive. On Monday in Texas, he managed to induce only one swinging strike on 86 pitches, but still battled his way through six innings of two-run ball en route to his third victory in four turns. It was the same kind of crafty and gritty outing as we saw on that evening in Detroit last May – right down to the skepticism about his coming out on a low pitch count. This is both a good and bad thing. It's nice to see Hughes craftily finding ways to get the job done while lacking much sizzle on his pitches. But that lack of sizzle is certainly troubling, and as long as his arsenal continues to drag, every start is going to be an adventure. Hopefully, as he further distances himself from surgery, Hughes will gradually regain arm strength and the velocity will begin to creep upward. Until the fastball catches up, he'll need to keep searching for ways to stay ahead.
  12. All fair points, but I lean the other way. In 2014/15, he posted a 3.88 FIP over 374 innings. Everything was trending up heading into 2016, when it unraveled, but then I don't think he was ever right physically last summer. Of course, possibly he'll never really be right physically again, despite his tinkering efforts during the offseason aimed to that end. So maybe it's all moot.
  13. Few things worth noting in Gibson's numbers: .362 BABIP (.306 career) 26.3% HR/FB (11.9%) 12.9% IF hit% (5.7%) 60.7 LOB% (69.2%) Not to mention the disproportionate number of poor defensive plays that have occurred behind him. I'm not saying he's been great, but the GB, FB, K and BB rates are more or less in line with career norms. He's been very unlucky. Based on underlying trends, I'd be much more concerned about Hughes going forward.
  14. One of the biggest reasons for positivity coming out of spring training was the fact that two players hugely critical to the Twins' success were on top of their games, seemingly poised to take big steps forward and help lead the team's turnaround. But since coming north, both players have seen their play go south, and now they've become perhaps Minnesota's two greatest sources of concern during an 8-10 start.We all know that spring exhibition statistics are to be taken with a grain of salt. But certain traits, developments and observable trends can provide valid reasons for optimism and belief. Byron Buxton and Kyle Gibson were exhibiting all of them throughout the month of March. The drop-off that both these key pieces experienced as soon as the games started mattering have left the Twins reeling, and searching futilely for answers. Buxton's spring was an extension of his breakthrough September in 2016. Once again, the young outfielder was flashing visible confidence, regularly connecting with good pitches and putting together solid at-bats. His performance was impressive enough to convince Paul Molitor that Buxton was ready to bat third in the lineup. But in April, the self-assured hitter who finished last season on a blistering hot streak and piled up a team-leading 10 extra-base hits in the ensuing spring has inexplicably gone amiss. Buxton looks as timid and clueless in the box as he did as a green MLB newcomer, if not more so. With each horrendous plate appearance, the issues only seem to further compound and snowball. The strategy of letting him try to fight through his struggles is yielding no discernible progress. Although the strikeouts have subsided somewhat, Buxton continues to be an exceedingly easy out, with mediocre or worse pitchers consistently having their way. In his first nine games he went 3-for-34. In eight games since, he's 3-for-31. According to FanGraphs, only one ball put in play this year by Buxton has qualified as a line drive. His 47 percent K-rate is 12 points higher than MLB pitchers have produced at the plate. You would literally expect better from a random Single-A scrub thrown onto the big-league stage. From a player of such immense talent who posted an .880 OPS in the minors, it boggles the mind. And considering Buxton's monumental importance to the franchise, it's a highly disquieting dilemma. Gibson isn't as vital to Minnesota's big-picture outlook, but he is quite crucial in the short-term. With all the question marks that surrounded (and continue to surround) Phil Hughes as well as the fifth starter spot, the Twins badly needed the veteran righty to rebound and join Ervin Santana as a reliable asset atop the rotation. Gibson showed every sign of doing so in camp, with an authoritative presence on the mound carrying more relevance than his stellar numbers. Throughout spring competition, Gibson worked ahead in counts, snapped off nasty sliders and cruised through efficient outings. When batters made contact, they were hitting everything into the ground. He was executing his gameplans to a tee. Utilizing altered mechanics, Gibson reported feeling as good as he has in a long time. But that version of the 29-year-old has vanished in four regular-season starts. All of the deepest flaws that held him down during a challenging 2016 campaign have been frustrating mainstays. Gibson's command has been terrible and his outings have routinely unraveled at the the first sign of trouble. Things reached a new low on Sunday when Gibson endured the worst start of his career before horrified home fans at Target Field. An eight-run shellacking at the hands of Detroit left him 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA, and leaves the Twins contemplating a demotion to the bullpen or even the minors. Ultimately, removing Buxton or Gibson may prove necessary but won't do much to brighten the team's fortunes. In the outfield, they lack compelling alternatives for Buxton, and almost any reconfiguration that takes him out of the picture will dramatically reduce the unit's defensive aptitude, diminishing one of the roster's only clear strengths. In the rotation, the Twins are already seeking to fill another vacancy following the demotion of Adalberto Mejia, and Hughes has done little to establish himself as any kind of stable presence. Minnesota desperately needs Gibson to figure it out, though patience is wearing thin and with good reason. In both cases, it seems clear that the ability and tools are inherently there to get the job done. What's holding them back? Why are these two critical cogs so profoundly overmatched? Where has the sharpness and confidence they exuded throughout the spring ramp-up period gone? And if those elements don't return soon, at least to some extent, what in the world are the Twins to do? Click here to view the article
  15. Nick Nelson

    Spring Backward

    We all know that spring exhibition statistics are to be taken with a grain of salt. But certain traits, developments and observable trends can provide valid reasons for optimism and belief. Byron Buxton and Kyle Gibson were exhibiting all of them throughout the month of March. The drop-off that both these key pieces experienced as soon as the games started mattering have left the Twins reeling, and searching futilely for answers. Buxton's spring was an extension of his breakthrough September in 2016. Once again, the young outfielder was flashing visible confidence, regularly connecting with good pitches and putting together solid at-bats. His performance was impressive enough to convince Paul Molitor that Buxton was ready to bat third in the lineup. But in April, the self-assured hitter who finished last season on a blistering hot streak and piled up a team-leading 10 extra-base hits in the ensuing spring has inexplicably gone amiss. Buxton looks as timid and clueless in the box as he did as a green MLB newcomer, if not more so. With each horrendous plate appearance, the issues only seem to further compound and snowball. The strategy of letting him try to fight through his struggles is yielding no discernible progress. Although the strikeouts have subsided somewhat, Buxton continues to be an exceedingly easy out, with mediocre or worse pitchers consistently having their way. In his first nine games he went 3-for-34. In eight games since, he's 3-for-31. According to FanGraphs, only one ball put in play this year by Buxton has qualified as a line drive. His 47 percent K-rate is 12 points higher than MLB pitchers have produced at the plate. You would literally expect better from a random Single-A scrub thrown onto the big-league stage. From a player of such immense talent who posted an .880 OPS in the minors, it boggles the mind. And considering Buxton's monumental importance to the franchise, it's a highly disquieting dilemma. Gibson isn't as vital to Minnesota's big-picture outlook, but he is quite crucial in the short-term. With all the question marks that surrounded (and continue to surround) Phil Hughes as well as the fifth starter spot, the Twins badly needed the veteran righty to rebound and join Ervin Santana as a reliable asset atop the rotation. Gibson showed every sign of doing so in camp, with an authoritative presence on the mound carrying more relevance than his stellar numbers. Throughout spring competition, Gibson worked ahead in counts, snapped off nasty sliders and cruised through efficient outings. When batters made contact, they were hitting everything into the ground. He was executing his gameplans to a tee. Utilizing altered mechanics, Gibson reported feeling as good as he has in a long time. But that version of the 29-year-old has vanished in four regular-season starts. All of the deepest flaws that held him down during a challenging 2016 campaign have been frustrating mainstays. Gibson's command has been terrible and his outings have routinely unraveled at the the first sign of trouble. Things reached a new low on Sunday when Gibson endured the worst start of his career before horrified home fans at Target Field. An eight-run shellacking at the hands of Detroit left him 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA, and leaves the Twins contemplating a demotion to the bullpen or even the minors. Ultimately, removing Buxton or Gibson may prove necessary but won't do much to brighten the team's fortunes. In the outfield, they lack compelling alternatives for Buxton, and almost any reconfiguration that takes him out of the picture will dramatically reduce the unit's defensive aptitude, diminishing one of the roster's only clear strengths. In the rotation, the Twins are already seeking to fill another vacancy following the demotion of Adalberto Mejia, and Hughes has done little to establish himself as any kind of stable presence. Minnesota desperately needs Gibson to figure it out, though patience is wearing thin and with good reason. In both cases, it seems clear that the ability and tools are inherently there to get the job done. What's holding them back? Why are these two critical cogs so profoundly overmatched? Where has the sharpness and confidence they exuded throughout the spring ramp-up period gone? And if those elements don't return soon, at least to some extent, what in the world are the Twins to do?
  16. He has made four relief appearances. Four. In 22 starts at AAA he has a 2.80 ERA. In 10 starts with the Twins in 2015 he had a 3.10 ERA. Lots of good starters have had one bad year. I tend to agree with the conclusion that Duffey should stay in the bullpen (especially since I've long been pushing for it) but how about bringing more nuanced analysis than 'so-and-so sucks'?
  17. If someone who didn't watch Monday's game happened to glance at the box score, scanning only numbers without the corresponding names, he might have assumed this pitching line belonged to Cleveland's bullpen ace Andrew Miller: 2.2 scoreless innings of relief, one hit allowed, no walks, four strikeouts. But no, that was Tyler Duffey. No one will confuse him with Miller anytime soon, but the right-hander is making his case as Minnesota's own bullpen ace. Or is he making his case to reclaim a starting job?For some time, many fans have wondered just what Duffey might be capable of in the bullpen. I count myself among them. There were a number of factors suggesting he could be a strong fit in the late innings – namely his collegiate experience there and his two-pitch mix. The 26-year-old's struggles as a starter last year further supported the need for a switch. Nevertheless, the Twins maintained an outward stance heading into spring that he'd be competing for a rotation spot. It appeared he was very much in that race up until the end of March, at which point the team announced Adalberto Mejia was going to be the fifth starter while Duffey would come north in a swingman-type capacity. As it turns out, he's been the most reliable man in the bullpen through two-plus weeks. Duffey's stellar outing on Monday extended a season-opening scoreless streak to 8.2 innings, and during that span he's allowed only five hits (all singles) and one walk while striking out seven. If this continues, the Twins will face a decision: consider giving him another shot at starting, or stick with what's working and allow Duffey to thrive in relief? In a sense, it feels silly to even consider messing with the good thing he has going. Duffey's signature breaking ball has been straight-up nasty and has left batters shaking their heads. But of course, that's not really anything new. The theoretical benefit behind using him in short relief stints was that it might play up his fastball, which was coming in like a beachball last summer and routinely got crushed. That might be occurring to some extent, but it's not like Duffey is suddenly whipping 96 MPH heaters in there. In fact, from early readings, his fastball is only up by about one MPH compared to his 2016 average. And it's not like he's consistently being leveraged in the kinds of quick-hit stints that would be conducive to max effort. He has thrown multiple innings in three of his four appearances, and racked up 32 pitches in his latest. Maybe Duffey looks so good because he's more comfortable or adept in the bullpen. It could well be the case that his arsenal is gaining efficacy when he enters as a change-of-pace, replacing a starter or another reliever. Maybe that two-pitch combo simply works better when he's not trying to get through a lineup three times. Or, there could be other elements at play. Maybe his decision to move to the other side of the rubber against righties is paying dividends. Maybe he has made other adjustments to improve his fastball command. Or maybe he's just plain healthier and feeling better. If his success is being driven by things of that nature, then Duffey could certainly keep it going in the rotation. While his ugly 2016 is fresh in our minds, it bears remembering that he was excellent as a starter for the Twins in 2015 and throughout the minors. As things stand, he is in limbo to a degree. He has pitched only three times in the past 13 days. Unless and until there is a definitive commitment to him as a top setup option, his usage as a reliever figures to remain sporadic. The manager, for his part, doesn't seem inclined to make this switch permanent. "For now," Paul Molitor said Tuesday in reference to Duffey's present assignment in the bullpen. Personally, I'm not sure moving him back to the rotation is the right choice, particularly since Minnesota has five healthy and functional starters for the time being, plus a guy in Jose Berrios at Triple-A who is proving his readiness to step in. But one way or another the Twins should decide on a defined role and leave it be. What would you like to see happen with Duffey? Click here to view the article
  18. For some time, many fans have wondered just what Duffey might be capable of in the bullpen. I count myself among them. There were a number of factors suggesting he could be a strong fit in the late innings – namely his collegiate experience there and his two-pitch mix. The 26-year-old's struggles as a starter last year further supported the need for a switch. Nevertheless, the Twins maintained an outward stance heading into spring that he'd be competing for a rotation spot. It appeared he was very much in that race up until the end of March, at which point the team announced Adalberto Mejia was going to be the fifth starter while Duffey would come north in a swingman-type capacity. As it turns out, he's been the most reliable man in the bullpen through two-plus weeks. Duffey's stellar outing on Monday extended a season-opening scoreless streak to 8.2 innings, and during that span he's allowed only five hits (all singles) and one walk while striking out seven. If this continues, the Twins will face a decision: consider giving him another shot at starting, or stick with what's working and allow Duffey to thrive in relief? In a sense, it feels silly to even consider messing with the good thing he has going. Duffey's signature breaking ball has been straight-up nasty and has left batters shaking their heads. But of course, that's not really anything new. The theoretical benefit behind using him in short relief stints was that it might play up his fastball, which was coming in like a beachball last summer and routinely got crushed. That might be occurring to some extent, but it's not like Duffey is suddenly whipping 96 MPH heaters in there. In fact, from early readings, his fastball is only up by about one MPH compared to his 2016 average. And it's not like he's consistently being leveraged in the kinds of quick-hit stints that would be conducive to max effort. He has thrown multiple innings in three of his four appearances, and racked up 32 pitches in his latest. Maybe Duffey looks so good because he's more comfortable or adept in the bullpen. It could well be the case that his arsenal is gaining efficacy when he enters as a change-of-pace, replacing a starter or another reliever. Maybe that two-pitch combo simply works better when he's not trying to get through a lineup three times. Or, there could be other elements at play. Maybe his decision to move to the other side of the rubber against righties is paying dividends. Maybe he has made other adjustments to improve his fastball command. Or maybe he's just plain healthier and feeling better. If his success is being driven by things of that nature, then Duffey could certainly keep it going in the rotation. While his ugly 2016 is fresh in our minds, it bears remembering that he was excellent as a starter for the Twins in 2015 and throughout the minors. As things stand, he is in limbo to a degree. He has pitched only three times in the past 13 days. Unless and until there is a definitive commitment to him as a top setup option, his usage as a reliever figures to remain sporadic. The manager, for his part, doesn't seem inclined to make this switch permanent. "For now," Paul Molitor said Tuesday in reference to Duffey's present assignment in the bullpen. Personally, I'm not sure moving him back to the rotation is the right choice, particularly since Minnesota has five healthy and functional starters for the time being, plus a guy in Jose Berrios at Triple-A who is proving his readiness to step in. But one way or another the Twins should decide on a defined role and leave it be. What would you like to see happen with Duffey?
  19. There's no implication here that he's going to sustain a 0.41 ERA throughout the summer. We saw what happened last year with those factors normalized over a full season. This article is less about what he's done in his first three starts in 2017, and more about what he's done with a fair amount of consistency since 2013.
  20. Maybe it's the team's history with free agents. Perhaps it is the perpetual up-and-down pattern of his career. Or maybe it's just a well justified skepticism about the sustainability of any good starting pitcher wearing a Minnesota Twins uniform. Whatever the reasons, people have had a hard time buying into Ervin Santana as a legitimate front-line starter. But at this point, it's an inescapable conclusion.Throughout his entire career, Santana has been a very streaky pitcher, so in a sense we should not go crazy over his incredible start to the 2017 season. But then again, this is the form he showed for most of 2016. The veteran right-hander is (hopefully) heading into a fifth straight season of sustained health and quality production. The improved results over this extensive stretch owe to more than just another hot streak. Since adding a new pitch to his repertoire, Santana has been a different player. A much better one, who shows signs of entrenching himself as a true No. 1 starter on a staff that desperately needs one to stick. In 2012, Santana allowed a league-leading 39 home runs in just 178 innings while scuffling through his final year with the Angels, in which he posted a career-worst ERA+ of 74. Perhaps it was this that inspired him to add a two-seam fastball – more colloquially known as a sinker – to his mix the following year. As you can see in the image below via Brooks Baseball, a new gray datapoint line starts appearing in 2013. This is when he started using the sinker, or at least in a way that caused it to register as such. The offering has been a noticeable difference-maker for him. Download attachment: Brooksbaseball-Chart.jpeg Santana has always been pretty good at limiting base-runners, evidenced by a 1.28 career WHIP. But in his down years, home runs have haunted, punishing him for the occasional walk or base hit. He's now in Year 5 since altering his arsenal, and there's been a distinct change. Through 2012, Santana had allowed homers at a 3.2 percent rate, with a 4.33 ERA. Since then, 2.5 percent with a 3.39 ERA. It's only a piece of the puzzle, but the bottom line is that Santana has been a really good pitcher for quite a while now. He has basically neutralized his one weakness – the long ball – and after making that adjustment hasn't really had a bad season. Since 2013, only 18 pitchers have thrown more innings with a better ERA, and they're all really damn good (surrounding Santana on the list are Jordan Zimmermann and Dallas Keuchel). Now, this isn't to say that Erv is ace material, or the guy you ideally want in Game 1 of a postseason series. He's just an extremely reliable above-average starter – a commodity that's been in short supply around these parts. And at the price the Twins are paying ($13.5 million this year and next, with a $14 million option in 2019) he's a real bargain. Naturally, this raises questions about how things might shape up at the trade deadline. Should the rest of the league become convinced of his value (and if he keeps pitching well for three more months, why would they doubt it?), Santana could bring back a decent haul. That's another asset for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine – already gifted the No. 1 overall draft pick and highest waiver priority – to keep in their pockets. Certainly a favorable inheritance for a new front office focused on building from the ground up. Of course, right now, selling is not the mindset. The Twins are 7-5, and in second place. While the thrill of actually being relevant may be fleeting, it may not. Either way, we'll all ride it as long as we can, especially with Santana keeping the good times rolling each fifth day. Click here to view the article
  21. Throughout his entire career, Santana has been a very streaky pitcher, so in a sense we should not go crazy over his incredible start to the 2017 season. But then again, this is the form he showed for most of 2016. The veteran right-hander is (hopefully) heading into a fifth straight season of sustained health and quality production. The improved results over this extensive stretch owe to more than just another hot streak. Since adding a new pitch to his repertoire, Santana has been a different player. A much better one, who shows signs of entrenching himself as a true No. 1 starter on a staff that desperately needs one to stick. In 2012, Santana allowed a league-leading 39 home runs in just 178 innings while scuffling through his final year with the Angels, in which he posted a career-worst ERA+ of 74. Perhaps it was this that inspired him to add a two-seam fastball – more colloquially known as a sinker – to his mix the following year. As you can see in the image below via Brooks Baseball, a new gray datapoint line starts appearing in 2013. This is when he started using the sinker, or at least in a way that caused it to register as such. The offering has been a noticeable difference-maker for him. Santana has always been pretty good at limiting base-runners, evidenced by a 1.28 career WHIP. But in his down years, home runs have haunted, punishing him for the occasional walk or base hit. He's now in Year 5 since altering his arsenal, and there's been a distinct change. Through 2012, Santana had allowed homers at a 3.2 percent rate, with a 4.33 ERA. Since then, 2.5 percent with a 3.39 ERA. It's only a piece of the puzzle, but the bottom line is that Santana has been a really good pitcher for quite a while now. He has basically neutralized his one weakness – the long ball – and after making that adjustment hasn't really had a bad season. Since 2013, only 18 pitchers have thrown more innings with a better ERA, and they're all really damn good (surrounding Santana on the list are Jordan Zimmermann and Dallas Keuchel). Now, this isn't to say that Erv is ace material, or the guy you ideally want in Game 1 of a postseason series. He's just an extremely reliable above-average starter – a commodity that's been in short supply around these parts. And at the price the Twins are paying ($13.5 million this year and next, with a $14 million option in 2019) he's a real bargain. Naturally, this raises questions about how things might shape up at the trade deadline. Should the rest of the league become convinced of his value (and if he keeps pitching well for three more months, why would they doubt it?), Santana could bring back a decent haul. That's another asset for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine – already gifted the No. 1 overall draft pick and highest waiver priority – to keep in their pockets. Certainly a favorable inheritance for a new front office focused on building from the ground up. Of course, right now, selling is not the mindset. The Twins are 7-5, and in second place. While the thrill of actually being relevant may be fleeting, it may not. Either way, we'll all ride it as long as we can, especially with Santana keeping the good times rolling each fifth day.
  22. Honestly, I really felt like they should have kept Stubbs out of ST and now that's even looking more like the case. His RH bat was such a nice fit with Rosario and Kepler starting in the corners, plus he could play CF and allows you to spell Buxton without starting Santana. Alas, now Stubbs is with the Giants. We'll see how he does in San Fran.
  23. Paul Molitor wasn't thrilled to be handed a 13-man pitching staff and three-man bench on Opening Day. Despite the team's success in these first seven games, he isn't feeling much better about it now. The manager has already been hamstrung on multiple occasions, including the end of a Tuesday loss which left him sounding a little exasperated. Something needs to change soon. That means the Twins have a tough decision to make.Operating with just three position backups, all of whom are more or less defensive specialists, has limited Molitor's ability to tweak and plug into the lineup. When he wanted to give DH Robbie Grossman a day off Saturday, the uninspiring replacement was utility infielder Eduardo Escobar. On Tuesday, when Molitor opted to sit first baseman Joe Mauer and right fielder Max Kepler against a left-hander, the fill-ins at two premium offensive positions were Chris Gimenez and Danny Santana – the two worst bats on the roster. Late in the game, the manager was unable to pinch-run for Jason Castro, standing on second as the tying run, because Joe Mauer had just singled him there after pinch-hitting for Castro's backup. Meanwhile, the extra arms have yielded Molitor no benefit. Sure, Twins starters have surprisingly pitched deep into most games, but the eight-man bullpen would be extreme overkill regardless. In the first eight days of the season, Justin Haley, Tyler Duffey and Michael Tonkin got into games twice apiece. Craig Breslow recorded one single out. In theory, the roster that Minnesota opened this season with was palatable for a brief period. In practice, it's a joke. The front office must realize that it's unfair and, frankly, ill-advised to keep this competitive handicap in play. Molitor emphasized at the conclusion of camp his belief that the unideal initial setup was "short-term." He is no doubt ready to move on and restore some balance. The Twins have a few different options for doing so. The easy choice is calling up Kennys Vargas. He's healthy and made his fourth straight start in Rochester on Tuesday, slugging his first home run. Choosing a pitcher to remove from the bullpen, which has been stunningly effective in the early going, is less easy. We know the late-inning core of Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle and Taylor Rogers will remain intact. After that, it gets a little trickier. Rule 5 pick Justin Haley has more or less proven his worth, with a clean one-inning debut followed by a long relief outing in Chicago that was going swimmingly through three innings before a pair of homers knocked him out. He seems safe. Tyler Duffey is the obvious pick if the team still views him as a starter. He could go to Triple-A, get stretched out and be ready to step into the rotation when needed. But are they still viewing him that way? Should they? Though he was framed as a swingman coming out of camp, Duffey's usage has not been reflective of such. Instead, he's been a high-leverage crutch for Molitor. And unsurprisingly, the righty has looked excellent in short bursts, flashing the stuff of a legit setup man. Why mess with that after he put up a 6.43 ERA in the Twins rotation last year? If Duffey will indeed accompany Pressly and Belisle as a late-inning weapon, it sort of marginalizes Michael Tonkin, who currently appears to have no real purpose on the roster. His two appearances have come in the two losses, both with the team down multiple runs. Once again, he is being used as a mop-up man, a role that suits him poorly. It's not evident from the first handful of games that he's gained any additional trust from Molitor. Then again, the Twins went out of their way to keep Tonkin out of spring, and he hasn't really done anything to lose favor on his end. Then there's Craig Breslow. He's made one appearance, relieving Kyle Gibson in the third game against the Royals. Molitor pulled him after three batters, and didn't turn to the veteran lefty in any of the next four contests. In his lone outing, Breslow threw only four of 11 pitches for strikes. In spring training, he walked seven over nine innings. The reinvented southpaw might have impressive spin and movement on his pitches, but there's no evidence he can command them. Clearly he doesn't have the manager's faith. So it seems there are three options at play if the Twins want to add a bat in short order. They can send out Duffey and get him back on a starting regimen in Rochester. They can expose Tonkin to waivers with hopes he'll have better odds of passing through now than at the end of spring. Or they can pull the plug on Breslow, whom they just handed a 40-man roster spot, after one outing. I'm not sure what the best option is, though I'd probably lean toward Breslow. I do know that the Twins need to cut down on pitchers and bulk up their bench, and I'm guessing everyone reading this will agree. What's your move? Click here to view the article
  24. Operating with just three position backups, all of whom are more or less defensive specialists, has limited Molitor's ability to tweak and plug into the lineup. When he wanted to give DH Robbie Grossman a day off Saturday, the uninspiring replacement was utility infielder Eduardo Escobar. On Tuesday, when Molitor opted to sit first baseman Joe Mauer and right fielder Max Kepler against a left-hander, the fill-ins at two premium offensive positions were Chris Gimenez and Danny Santana – the two worst bats on the roster. Late in the game, the manager was unable to pinch-run for Jason Castro, standing on second as the tying run, because Joe Mauer had just singled him there after pinch-hitting for Castro's backup. Meanwhile, the extra arms have yielded Molitor no benefit. Sure, Twins starters have surprisingly pitched deep into most games, but the eight-man bullpen would be extreme overkill regardless. In the first eight days of the season, Justin Haley, Tyler Duffey and Michael Tonkin got into games twice apiece. Craig Breslow recorded one single out. In theory, the roster that Minnesota opened this season with was palatable for a brief period. In practice, it's a joke. The front office must realize that it's unfair and, frankly, ill-advised to keep this competitive handicap in play. Molitor emphasized at the conclusion of camp his belief that the unideal initial setup was "short-term." He is no doubt ready to move on and restore some balance. The Twins have a few different options for doing so. The easy choice is calling up Kennys Vargas. He's healthy and made his fourth straight start in Rochester on Tuesday, slugging his first home run. Choosing a pitcher to remove from the bullpen, which has been stunningly effective in the early going, is less easy. We know the late-inning core of Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle and Taylor Rogers will remain intact. After that, it gets a little trickier. Rule 5 pick Justin Haley has more or less proven his worth, with a clean one-inning debut followed by a long relief outing in Chicago that was going swimmingly through three innings before a pair of homers knocked him out. He seems safe. Tyler Duffey is the obvious pick if the team still views him as a starter. He could go to Triple-A, get stretched out and be ready to step into the rotation when needed. But are they still viewing him that way? Should they? Though he was framed as a swingman coming out of camp, Duffey's usage has not been reflective of such. Instead, he's been a high-leverage crutch for Molitor. And unsurprisingly, the righty has looked excellent in short bursts, flashing the stuff of a legit setup man. Why mess with that after he put up a 6.43 ERA in the Twins rotation last year? If Duffey will indeed accompany Pressly and Belisle as a late-inning weapon, it sort of marginalizes Michael Tonkin, who currently appears to have no real purpose on the roster. His two appearances have come in the two losses, both with the team down multiple runs. Once again, he is being used as a mop-up man, a role that suits him poorly. It's not evident from the first handful of games that he's gained any additional trust from Molitor. Then again, the Twins went out of their way to keep Tonkin out of spring, and he hasn't really done anything to lose favor on his end. Then there's Craig Breslow. He's made one appearance, relieving Kyle Gibson in the third game against the Royals. Molitor pulled him after three batters, and didn't turn to the veteran lefty in any of the next four contests. In his lone outing, Breslow threw only four of 11 pitches for strikes. In spring training, he walked seven over nine innings. The reinvented southpaw might have impressive spin and movement on his pitches, but there's no evidence he can command them. Clearly he doesn't have the manager's faith. So it seems there are three options at play if the Twins want to add a bat in short order. They can send out Duffey and get him back on a starting regimen in Rochester. They can expose Tonkin to waivers with hopes he'll have better odds of passing through now than at the end of spring. Or they can pull the plug on Breslow, whom they just handed a 40-man roster spot, after one outing. I'm not sure what the best option is, though I'd probably lean toward Breslow. I do know that the Twins need to cut down on pitchers and bulk up their bench, and I'm guessing everyone reading this will agree. What's your move?
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