Nick Nelson

It's basically the same thing, with Kepler to the top and Grossman to the bottom, plus Escobar in for Polanco.

And they scored 7 runs. That's, um, kind of the point? Clustering your more patient, OBP-centric guys at the top of the order can help manufacture rallies when bats don't. It did in this game. You can claim that Kansas City's pitchers "decided to stop throwing the ball anywhere close to the strike zone" (huh?) all you want, but that point remains.

In the week or so leading up to Opening Day, Paul Molitor's lineups became a central topic of conversation among Twins fans and media. This was, in part, borne out of desperation; after an especially long spring training, we had all basically run out of things to talk about. But there was also something about those final tuneup experiments that felt depictive of deeper and much more important narratives. Particularly that of the manager, who enjoyed a vindicating afternoon on Monday.Many eyebrows were raised last summer when Minnesota's GM vacancy opened up along with an immediate, non-negotiable stipulation that Molitor would stay on. His team was on its way to an historically awful finish, and given his complete lack of managerial experience prior to 2015, the sophomore skipper didn't have much to fall back on other than a revered status within the organization. Ultimately, this wasn't a dealbreaker for Derek Falvey or Thad Levine, who are from all appearances fostering a healthy rapport with Molitor despite an inherent conflict of interest. The new top execs are expressing a big-picture view while downplaying the importance of quick answers and short-term thinking. Molitor, on the hot seat and under the microscope, can't afford such a mindset. He doesn't set the roster. The Twins skipper would probably rather not be tethered to a Rule 5 pick he needs to hide in the bullpen, nor deprived of ByungHo Park after watching the slugger check all the boxes over five weeks in Florida. All Molitor can do is work with what he's got, and in that respect, there have been some interesting storylines and they came into play on Monday. Throughout the Grapefruit League, Molitor was constantly toying with his lineups, telling reporters he was open to anything. But only in the final weekend, with the Twins running through their final rehearsals, did it become clear that his willingness to get weird was legit. The unorthodox lineup on Opening Day caught a lot of people off-guard, but it was the culmination of considerable tweaking and experimentation on Molitor's part. Robbie Grossman batting second? Byron Buxton in the three-hole? Joe Mauer hitting cleanup for the first time in 11 years?? (Go ahead and re-read that last one for dramatic effect.) It was sequencing that defied convention. But it's not like Molitor, chomping at the bit to start on a good note and put 2016 behind him, gave this any shortage of thought. And when you squint, you can envision how the gears were turning. Brian Dozier likes leading off, and feels comfortable there. Last year when he was most comfortable he was smashing like three homers a week. OK, not much thinking required there. But then, you plug in Grossman who led the team in on-base percentage last year, and had a .418 clip against lefties. OBP near the top of the order – how sabermetrical! Buxton third is unexpected but he was a monster last September and displayed equal confidence and aggressiveness this spring. Clearly Molitor believes the kid is ready to arrive, and made a statement to that effect on Opening Day. Mauer batting fourth certainly caused the most bewilderment. His lack of power production makes him an ill fit for the traditional cleanup mold, no doubt. But what does Molitor care about established practices? He's got nothing to lose. I suspect that the cerebral side of him sees a smart veteran player that can consistently keep rallies rolling even if he doesn't deliver the knockout punch. A selective hitter who can take pitches and handle the bat, optimal for orchestrating steals and hit-and-runs with Buxton aboard. An OBP specialist who can continually get on base ahead of Miguel Sano. On Opening Day, Molitor's quirky lineup was immediately put to the test. In the pivotal seventh inning of a 1-1 game, the Twins mounted a threat. With two runners in scoring position and one out, the Royals intentionally walked Brian Dozier, and here came Molitor's custom made run-scoring configuration with bases loaded. They scored runs. Grossman did what he does – drew a walk, and it gave the Twins a lead. Next up Buxton, with a chance to do serious damage. He struck out, one of three on the day, but I'll still take him in that spot right now. Mauer and Sano both followed with run-scoring walks of their own to build the lead before hits from Jason Castro and Jorge Polanco blew it open. It certainly wasn't Molitor's lineup construction that won the game. We can credit Ervin Santana and some very good, disciplined Twins at-bats (aided by a bit of wildness) for that. But there were those little moments that validated the manager's creative thinking, and it all added up to one big reward: Minnesota's first season-opening win in almost a decade, and the quickest possible disassociation from last years disastrous start. The satisfaction for Molitor and the Twins is fleeting – they've got a lot of work to do. But at least, with the schedule's customary open second day, they get a little extra time to soak it in. Click here to view the article

To the great consternation of uniform purists everywhere, the New Era brand logo will appear on MLB caps this regular season for the first time, a practice that started in last year's playoffs. In the eyes of some, this is yet another obnoxious step toward commercialization of the product on the field. But in the case of the Minnesota Twins, it is a rather fitting insignia as the franchise wades into unfamiliar territory with an overhauled baseball operations unit led by total outsiders.Understandably, there's a general feeling of dissatisfaction among the fanbase after 103 losses were followed by a relatively quiet offseason on the player acquisition front. A roster that stumbled to the worst finish in the history of Twins baseball is back, largely intact. A rotation that ranked as the league's worst, routinely erasing any meaningful chance at a victory before games were half-done, brings only one new face: rookie Adalberto Mejia, who will be making his first major-league start when he takes on the White Sox in Chicago this weekend. A bullpen that failed frequently to put out fires, often fanning the flames for a full scale inferno, opens as a classic Twins group in all the wrong ways. Contact-prone veterans in high-leverage roles (Brandon Kintzler, Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow), quantity over quality, general lack of upside. On the surface, it's easy to look at the construction of the Opening Day roster and feel dispirited as we lurch into Year 7 in this this almost exclusively non-competitive slog. It's a grand old game, to be sure, but the spectating appeal wanes as losses mount, especially when there's been so much lousy baseball contributing to that end. It comes as no surprise that the Twins are struggling to sell tickets, nor that polled fans are woefully pessimistic about the team's chances. Most would not be surprised to see another 0-9 start, or worse. Winning is the primary imperative right now, and I'm not just talking about placing notches on the left column. More importantly, they need to win back the hearts of casual followers and baseball enthusiasts. While a return to contention will ultimately drive this, the Twins can begin to move the needle simply by showing real progress. Therein lies their advantage. With expectations so staggeringly low, this is a tremendous opportunity for the club to pleasantly surprise. And while the minimal roster tweaking may not inspire confidence of a turnaround in the near future, foundational changes within the organization provide a central storyline that will define this season and give onlookers plenty of incentive to tune in and stay engaged. Open Minds At Sunday's final preseason presser, Paul Molitor acknowledged that his team hasn't offered much to cheer about but urged fans to be "open-minded," and it is advice that all should heed. No one can be blamed for carrying an ingrained skepticism about this team, or even a sense of apathy. Minnesota's run of difficulties and setbacks over the past several years have overshadowed any other franchise in the game. With the misery sinking to a new depth in 2016, there's no real feeling of upward momentum at this time. But the previous leadership is gone. The new top baseball bosses at 1 Twins Way are both external hires with no real ties to the organization. Derek Falvey, the fast-rising exec whose relative youth and inexperience are befitting the project he inherits, comes from a Cleveland operation that has become the crown jewel of the AL Central – not to mention a hotbed of mineable front office talent. Thad Levine, his hand-picked GM and right-hand man, was a longtime staple in a Texas braintrust that mastered the model of perpetual competitiveness, with seven first- or second-place finishes in the last eight years. Rob Antony, who made some impressive moves during his brief time at the helm as Terry Ryan's interim replacement, stays on and lends continuity from the old regime, but he is clearly No. 3 in the reconfigured hierarchy. There are systemic and pervasive issues afflicting this organization, and it may take time to lay proper groundwork for the sustainable contending models Falvey and Levine helped build elsewhere and envision here. In the words of team president Dave St. Peter, they're not "miracle men." No miracles required. Just sound and proactive decision-making, unobstructed by outdated mindsets or inhibiting loyalties. The new hires may have been selected specifically because they embody such characteristics. While we presently know little about the new executive duo, we do know two things: 1) This will be a front office that relies much more strongly upon analytics and modern philosophies, incorporating data and innovations while recognizing the blueprint for building a champion in today's MLB. 2) Any assessments being made by Falvey and Levine, whether regarding players or employees or frameworks in place, come with no shading from preconception or attachment. Complaints of the Twins lagging due to insularity or staleness are baseless going forward. It is clear that these guys are coming in with open minds, so fans should do the same. For those of us who enjoy following the nuts and bolts of roster management almost as much as the action on the field, this represents the most curiosity-piquing time for the Twins in decades. Better Days Ahead When you take away the emotion, and the raw freshness of 2016, there really is not much reason to expect the Twins to be terrible this year. They'll probably be bad, yes, nothing approaching the unwatchable mess that unfolded last summer. Betting lines have Minnesota pegged at 74.5 wins. Baseball Prospectus projects 78. These are objective measures for setting a predictive baseline on the team's outcome. Improving by 15 wins is about what we should anticipate. Of course, these same conventions also painted the Twins as a decent team last spring, when they wrapped up a similarly positive camp only to step into the regular season like a racehorse whose leg snapped as he ventured from the gate. No predictive tool can really account for the variables that conspired to turn an 83-win team into a 59-win disaster. But such tools also cannot account for unexpected breakthroughs and fortuitous turns. Such things have been in short supply for Minnesota lately, but how often in the marathon baseball schedule is a long losing spell countered by an ensuing hot streak? What happens to that 75-win baseline if Byron Buxton, more comfortable at the plate, turns into an offensive force and emerges as one of the game's premier impact players? What happens if the four veterans in the rotation replicate their 2014 performances, and Mejia proves a capable newcomer? What happens if the bullpen infusion starts coming to fruition and Tyler Jay is setting up JT Chargois in meaningful August games? Yes, this is a time of year where the mind tends to wander amid a teeming haze of promise and hope. Maybe that feels so much more convincing this spring because the bar is set so very low. Even if the Twins don't break an eight-year run of Opening Day losses on Monday afternoon, I do feel safe in saying they'll win their first game before April 15th. From there, it's all uphill. Click here to view the article

I LOL'd pretty hard

Awesome stuff DB. The Butcher & the Boar rib tips used to be my favorite food at the yard, but in my opinion they've gotten worse with each passing year. My sense is that it's hard to match quality to volume with a dish like that. Buffalo chicken poutine?? Hmmmm

He has been given one full season, during which he was working in an unfamiliar role but still piled up the most strikeout of any Twins reliever since prime Joe Nathan. People lament the Twins not giving young guys chances, lament the lack of velocity and strikeouts, then are so quick to give up on a dude after a bit of turbulence. His ERA was around 3 in mid-June before an unprecedented workload began to catch up with him. And again, who is he holding back? Chargois can be called up at any time. They didn't lose anyone to keep him, whereas they would have lost him to keep someone else.

I'm about as low on Santana as possible, but this is a reasonable and well articulated defense of keeping him around, for the time being,

You think relievers with Tonkin's minor-league numbers, and a 10 K/9 rate over a full big-league season, grow on trees? And you're telling me that if he were to end up somewhere else on waivers, turning into the quality setup man that both his AAA numbers and MLB K/BB suggest is possible, you're not going to be wringing your hands about the Twins letting him go because they favored Alex Wimmers? Problem is that he's not often going to get a three-run lead, especially considering that this is the Twins. More often he'll be trying to guard a one or two run lead, and in those situations a few grounders with eyes can erase that lead in a hurry, by no real fault of his own. You need K's in the 9th. Kintzler is a much better fit as a middle reliever, particularly since his efficiency makes him a good candidate to handle multiple frames.

I'm excited to see Tonkin let loose in a role that he's better suited for. Personally I believe that his struggles last year tied considerably to his being asked to throw tons of pitches while miscast as a long man. With Haley now occupying that role, Tonkin can unleash the fire in one-inning stints. If they were to let him go elsewhere and he succeeded in that capacity, we'd have looked back at it as a critical misstep.

... Finally For more than a decade, Minnesota Twins fans have been clamoring for a more analytical approach from the front office. Those cries have now been answered. The pivot from legendary scout Terry Ryan to relatively unknown young executive Derek Falvey at the head of baseball operations represents just about the starkest move in that direction possible, and we're already seeing evidence of it.During our Q&A session with him at the Winter Meltdown in January, Twins Director of Baseball Research Jack Goin opined that his organization ranked around the middle of the pack when it comes to optimizing analytics, though he candidly acknowledged they don't really hold a competitive advantage in that area at this time. Now, the Twins are positioned to move briskly toward gaining one. From Old School to New School While his department has certainly made significant strides in recent years, I doubt that Goin would deny that Minnesota was playing catch up for a while. As forward-thinking front offices across the league began to adopt cutting-edge tracking methods and advanced statistics, a Twins franchise run by Ryan and his largely stagnant braintrust remained decidedly traditional in its philosophies. The "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach lost any semblance of credibility in 2016 when a lengthy stretch of disappointment culminated with the worst season in Twins history. It was clear that things were broken. So, ownership made a move to fix them. A track record of insularity and deference to reputation was thrown on its side with the decision to hire Falvey. Young, energetic and little-known on the national scene, he was a blinding contrast to Ryan, the heralded scout whose very presence commanded respect, and whose affable gruffness was a defining characteristic. At a time where many fans understandably expected a minor change in course, and maybe even a simple switch to the next in command, Twins owner Jim Pohlad and president Dave St. Peter enacted a 180-degree turn. I give them a lot of credit for that. And everything I've seen thus far leads me to believe their choice was a savvy one. Riding the Wave Across the nation, analytics and technology are increasingly gaining influence – not just in baseball, but in the sports world at large. On Tuesday night, I had the privilege of co-hosting an event at The Pitch, an entrepreneurial hub in Northeast Minneapolis with a specific focus on innovative businesses operating in the field of sport. We were celebrating the launch of The Ultimate Guide to SportsTech in Minnesota, which I helped compile with TECHdotMN. The digital doc serves as a window to some of the state's brightest up-and-comers in this rapidly growing space. Back in January, I covered the MinneAnalytics SportCon event downtown, a first-of-its kind sports analytics conference bringing together experts and execs from various corners of the industry to discuss and dissect advancements within this evolving frontier. One of the featured panelists of the day? None other than Falvey, who had attained his title as Chief Baseball Officer only a few months earlier. A top Minnesota Twins executive speaking as an authority at a conference on analytics? Not so long ago, it would have seemed unthinkable, but it's a sign of the times at Target Field. And Falvey was very much at home on that stage. The Puzzle Solver Earlier this week, the New York Times published a profile on the new Twins CBO penned by Tyler Kepner. The piece discusses Falvey's career as a pitcher at Trinity College, wherein the right-hander relied upon his studious and strategic nature rather than superior talent to stay afloat. That's been the ongoing story for Falvey, who never played professional baseball and joined Cleveland's front office shortly after graduating Trinity with an economics degree. "He likes working puzzles and solving problems," as Kepner put it, and he very quickly ascended ranks with the Indians while capturing the attention and admiration of baseball lifers like Terry Francona. Despite his background, some might skeptically question what evidence exists of Falvey being a revolutionary figure in the scope of this franchise's story. He doesn't necessarily go around openly flaunting new-age stats and advanced metrics, after all. But there's no doubt he is well versed in such matters and, to be fair, constantly evangelizing those kinds of things right off the bat can be alienating in an organization with many lingering Ryan loyalists. And that's also not really the point. The definition of analytics is "information resulting from the systematic analysis of data or statistics." And if you pay any attention to what Falvey says, you're bound to hear him talk about the value of data-driven decisions based on versatile sets of available info. You could argue that we haven't necessarily seen those elements in action yet, as the realigned front office has taken a relatively hands-off approach with roster management in the early going. But if you look for them, signs of shifting philosophy are not difficult to find. The New Way Indications that Minnesota is taking a more modern approach to building a team and organization are, perhaps, somewhat sparse up to this point, but they are certainly noticeable. The aggressive pursuit and signing of Jason Castro, a renowned pitching framing specialist, was an early signal. And while some of the other acquisitions may bear marks of the old regime, the reasoning and outcomes have been different. While I was in Fort Myers, there was a belief among many covering camp that Ryan Vogelsong had an inside track for a rotation spot, especially after Trevor May went down. Such perceptions were, in my view, based on conditioning carried over from the previous era. Bringing the slow-tossing 39-year-old north based on little more than veteran influence would have been a trademark Ryan move, to be sure, but there's a different flavor now. Sure enough, the Vogelsong drama ended early when he was released last week, winnowing the fifth starter competition down to pitchers whose presence in the rotation can actually yield tangible long-term benefits. The signing and elevation of Craig Breslow might also look like a standard TR type maneuver, given his depth of MLB experience and previous ties to the Twins. At least, until you look deeper. Recognizing that he was probably reaching the end of his career unless he figured out a way to gain an edge, Breslow reinvented himself, purchasing an expensive tracking device and using it to alter his delivery in order to maximize the spin on his pitches. He and his agent sold his revival by selling the data, and that struck a chord with Falvey. "One of the things I think, as an industry, we can be a little bit better about is using evidence to help development," the CBO explained to Twins Daily earlier this month. "I think Craig was one who just went and did that on his own, which I commend him for." The favorable impression went both ways. After the southpaw threw in front of scouts from numerous teams during the winter, he received nearly a dozen offers, some of which included more money than Minnesota's $1.25 million plus incentives. But by all accounts, it was Falvey's acute understanding and appreciation of what Breslow was trying to do that tilted the scales. There are plenty of other subtle steps toward a more analytical approach in terms of the way Falvey, along with GM Thad Levine, have begun to piece things together. There has been an evident increase in hiring within Goin's research department, with job postings popping up a few times in the past few months. Jeff Pickler, added to the big-league coaching staff in December, has a background of implementing new data and software solutions. Paul Molitor named "the deciphering of information" as a distinct area Pickler can influence. So What? Now, of course, this is all fairly meaningless for the time being. Until we see real progress on the field, any supposed differences between the new leadership and the old are based only on rhetoric and platitudes. But as someone who has longed for the Twins to distance themselves from the outdated thinking and strictly observational analysis that embodied their outward mindset as an organization, I'm beyond refreshed by the things I have seen and heard from the individuals now running the show. I'll leave you with this quote from Falvey. It is his response to the final question I asked him in a one-on-one session outside the Twins clubhouse when I was in camp two weeks ago. "On the subject of analytics," I submitted, "is there anything that you see rising to the forefront that is maybe not being looked at too much right now?" It's a question that Terry Ryan – bless his heart – would have rolled his eyes at, and vaguely answered in some unsatisfying manner. Here's Falvey's full answer, verbatim, with no foresight that it was coming. "The evolution of StatCast is something that, of all 30 teams, I think there’s a few teams that have wrapped their hands around it a bit. I think there’s more teams that need to spend more time understanding it. But we have so much more information about how a player moves on the field, and where he’s positioned at the moment each pitch is thrown, how well he goes from first to third, efficiencies, things like that. And I think we’re going to have a better understanding of how to use that information to develop players’ individual skills. For instance an outfielder, routes to the ball and otherwise, we’re now going to have evidence and data that help us better understand how he moves around in the outfield, which will allow Jeff Pickler and our other minor league coaches along the way to better train at 2 o’clock in the afternoon to help put him in a better position at 7 o’clock. So that’s exciting. I’m excited about that particular tool impacting the game and each team is gonna be in a race to try to figure out who can do it best, that’s part of the deal. That’s the competition." Indeed, that is the competition. And the Twins, in my humble opinion, are now far better equipped for it. Click here to view the article

I'll admit that I was motivated to use the term so I could include that "fire Sale / fire sale" wordplay in the intro. I'll also admit that I have no shame.

I mean it sounds nice when your put those descriptors in front of their names, but they aren't really accurate. Todd Frazier was not an All Star last year, when he offered little offensive value outside of hitting a bunch of home runs. David Robertson was an All Star once, in 2011. Jose Abreu was a fairly average 1B last year. As I noted, there is still some talent on this roster, but I think it is apt to describe the offseason as a fire sale when they flipped their two leaders in WAR for a bunch of prospects who will all open the year in the minors.

Following an incident last summer where White Sox ace Chris Sale busted out a pair of scissors and cut up a uniform he didn't want to wear, he was suspended and fined. It appeared that the relationship between him and the team was reaching a perilous point. They didn't fire Sale, but during the offseason they did trade him, setting off a roster fire sale that saw Chicago trade away its pitching and position WAR leaders for hefty prospect hauls while also making a managerial change.2016 At A Glance Record: 78-84 Runs Scored: 686 Runs Allowed: 715 Pythag W/L: 78-84 Pitching WAR Leader: Chris Sale Position WAR Leader: Adam Eaton Season Recap The 2016 campaign qualified as Chicago's best in four years, but that wasn't saying much. Another sub-.500 finish spelled the end of Robin Ventura's tenure, which produced only one finish above fourth place, back in 2012. The story for the Sox was much the same: offensive mediocrity and a pitching staff that lacked superior quality beyond the undoubtedly stellar 1-2 rotation punch of Sale and Jose Quintana. Finally, the front office grew fed up with a formula that seemed to be going nowhere. During the offseason, Chicago committed to an approach that many have lamented Minnesota's avoidance of during a half-decade of ineptitude: they tore it down. Sale was shipped to Boston in exchange for a premium package headlined by Yoan Moncada, arguably the game's top prospect. Adam Eaton, who was worth more than twice as many wins as any other position player on the team according to FanGraphs, went to Washington with three young pitchers coming back. Outside of the returns in these blockbusters, the White Sox made no significant additions other than signing Derek Holland – a mid-rotation starter at best – to a one-year deal. Why They'll Be Better Well, anything can happen I suppose. They didn't set a particularly high bar last year and it's not like the White Sox are lacking in talent. Moncada is Baseball America's No. 2 prospect, and he's basically MLB-ready after debuting for Boston last September. The second baseman will start the year in Triple-A (mostly for service time reasons) but should be up quickly to partner with shortstop Tim Anderson for one of the game's best young keystone combos. Right-hander Lucas Giolito, the hard-throwing centerpiece in the Eaton deal, is 25th on BA's prospect list and could soon join Quintana and Carlos Rodon for a potent trio atop the rotation. If the youth movement can push things along and jell in a hurry, the White Sox have a chance to surprise this summer. Why They'll Be Worse It goes without saying that when you take away a team's top two contributors, it's probably going to take a step backward. Chicago doesn't really have anyone on hand to replace Eaton in center field (the presumed starter, Charlie Tillson, has a stress reaction in his foot and is out indefinitely). Of course, no pitcher is going to match the departed dominance of Sale. In fact, the starting corps is shaping up to be a big old mess. With Rodon experiencing ominous biceps soreness, Chicago figures to open the season with a rotation featuring Quintana and then Holland, James Shields, Miguel Gonzalez and... Dylan Covey? The expectation is that GM Rick Hahn will shop Quintana around in his continuing efforts to rebuild, especially if things go south early. Closer David Robertson is also potentially on the table. If the White Sox take away the few remaining standout veterans and leave it all in the hands of inexperienced youngsters and marginal players, they could be looking at 100 losses. It probably wouldn't be the worst outcome. Part of rebuilding, and the part where the Sox have lagged with their habit of being bad-not-awful, is accruing high draft picks and hitting on them. Chicago has selected higher than eighth in the draft only once in the past decade, even with all of those non-competitive seasons. They used that pick (third overall in 2014) to take Rodon, who might be their best starter by year's end. They'll get the 11th selection this June, but could be on the clock much earlier in 2018. In fact, they're probably counting on it. ~~~ Check out the rest of our Central Intelligence series previewing Minnesota's division rivals: Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals Click here to view the article

I'd say Pressly is a 100% lock to make the bullpen and I wouldn't put too much stock into today's erratic outing as it was rather out of character. He hadn't issued a single walk in seven prior outings this spring.

Yeah, he has a very good slider and that helps. But he also commands the fastball and mixes in the 2-seamer very well. He introduced that pitch to his arsenal in 2013 I believe and has had really good results ever since, with a notable improvement in terms of limiting home runs.

Not exactly on topic, but here's one of the most bizarre stats of the 2016 Minnesota Twins season for me. Only four pitchers made 20+ starts for the Twins. Here's the team's record in those respective games started by each pitcher. Kyle Gibson starts: 12-13 Tyler Duffey starts: 11-15 Ricky Nolasco starts: 9-12 Ervin Santana starts: 8-22 Starting pitching was (rightfully) pointed to as the primary source of the team's woes. Yet, with their only half-decent starter on the mound, they were vastly worse than with greatly inferior options. Holy cow I can't believe they played .267 ball behind Erv with the way he pitched, that had to be frustrating. They owe him big-time this year.

There was a time when Kansas City's .500 finish in 2016 would have felt like a commendable achievement. It's a modest threshold the franchise had failed to reach in nine consecutive seasons prior to 2013. Of course, coming off two straight World Series appearances, the most recent of which they won, it felt like a let-down. More disappointment may be in store for 2017.Record: 81-81 Runs Scored: 675 Runs Allowed: 712 Pythag W/L: 77-85 Pitching WAR Leader: Danny Duffy Position WAR Leader: Jarrod Dyson Season Recap In mid-June, the Royals completed a sweep of the Cleveland Indians at Kauffman Stadium to pull into a tie for first place in the division. Soon after, they went into a prolonged slump while the Tribe caught fire, and six weeks later they trailed Cleveland by double digits. KC rebounded with a strong month of August and made a run at a wild-card spot, but then fell into a September funk that dropped them out of contention. The Royals have been a charmed club for quite a while. They handily outperformed their Pythagorean W/L in each of the past three seasons, taking a total of 14 more games than you'd mathematically expect during that span. In 2016 they were fortunate to win as many as they lost while allowing 37 more runs than they scored. In some respects, their strengths are conducive to such outcomes. Their lockdown bullpen gives them an edge in close games, and their consistently elite defensive units help cover up some warts. But no team can run away from the laws of baseball forever, especially with mediocre starting pitching, and in a way Kansas City's late-season swoon felt like a long overdue regression to the mean. The bullpen, as usual, was excellent. Same goes for the defense. But the rotation was a weakness, with no one other than Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy offering much. The lineup sputtered, scoring just 675 runs and ranking last in the American League in homers. The leader in that category, Kendrys Morales, departed over the winter to join Toronto. Why They'll Be Better Duffy is a legitimate top-of-the-rotation type, and midway through last year the Royals finally made the full commitment to him as a starter. They went 17-9 in his 28 turns after moving him out of the bullpen halfway through May. He's expected to be their Opening Day starter against the Twins on April 3rd after signing a five-year extension in January. While Morales and his powerful bat are gone, the Royals did acquire Jorge Soler from the Cubs, adding some much needed young upside to the offense. They also added free agent Brandon Moss, a reliable source of 20-30 bombs. Mix in the better expected output from Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon, whose campaigns were marred by injuries, and the lineup should improve. That last name is particularly vital. Gordon is the beating heart of this team – he led the roster in WAR every year from 2011 through 2014 – and getting him back to a healthy productive state could make a huge difference. Then again, he's now 33 and his K-rate rocketed upward last year, so it's possible that peak-level Gordon won't reappear. Why They'll Be Worse The pitching staff lost two cornerstones during the offseason, and replacing what they brought to the table will prove excruciatingly tough. Davis, who was one of the most dominant and impactful relievers in the game over the past three seasons, went to Chicago in the Soler trade. With Greg Holland leaving for Colorado, Kelvin Herrera is now the only remaining member of a spectacular late-inning trio that helped make KC a championship-caliber club in 2014 and 2015. Herrera will be closing, leaving manager Ned Yost with much less firepower to work with in the sixth, seventh and eighth. And then there was the heartbreaking death of Yordano Ventura, just 25 years old, in January. He endured his worst season as a big-leaguer last year, but Ventura's ace upside was a constant source of vitalizing hope for the Royals rotation. No one will fill the void left by his big personality and intense passion for the game. And his tragic passing also leaves a talent void that newcomers Jason Hammel and Nate Karns can't hope to replenish. Beyond Duffy, there's not too much to like in Kansas City's starting corps. Kennedy is trying to back up his best season in seven years, in which his ERA was a full run lower than his FIP. KC's system lacks any kind of bona fide stud pitching prospects offering the real potential for a midseason jolt. This looks like a rebuilding year for the Royals. There's nothing wrong with that; they had a hell of a run. But it seems far more likely that they will be selling off pieces to bolster a depleted farm system at the deadline than shopping for another postseason push. ~~~ This is the third in our Central Intelligence series previewing Minnesota's division rivals. Make sure to check out our deep dives on the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers. Click here to view the article

Mays and (possibly) Gonsalves being injured are not "decisions." Santiago is a solid pitcher whose presence does nothing but add SP depth. I don't necessarily agree with the projection that Danny Santana will break camp but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. So the only actual decisions you're criticizing here are keeping Santiago (perfectly defensible) and changing Jay's role, which I would argue is a proactive move that does contrast against the previous leaders. Doogie was relaying a quote from Tyler Jay's agent. Take it with a grain of salt.