Nick Nelson

The Twins can survive without Sano if Buxton keeps doing what he's doing, especially if Vargas can provide. He was hitting .419 for Rochester since his most recent option.

Some have criticized Major League Baseball's new postseason format, with two wild-card entrants in each league, as a celebration of mediocrity. Looking around at the teams racing against Minnesota for those spots, it's hard to disagree. When you examine the Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Royals, and basically the entire AL East after Boston, you don't see many stacked lineups or deep staffs. But that's exactly why the flawed Twins have a very realistic shot, in the driver's seat even, three weeks after a deflating slump pushed them into seller mode at the deadline.The Twins haven't really been able to experience the perks of the new system; outside of 2015 they've never been remotely close to the second wild-card since it was added six seasons ago. But we all know the feeling of a single everything-on-the-line contest, after witnessing back-to-back Game 163s in 2008 and 2009. Those Twins teams, too, were flawed. But that didn't take away from the exhilaration of the moments, the magnitude of the stakes, the brightness of the spotlight. Here's why they have a good shot at making it happen this year: 1) They Face a Relatively Easy Remaining Slate The Twins have the softest remaining schedule of any American League club, and it's especially light over the next few weeks, with 20 of their next 27 games coming against teams below .500 (the other seven are against the Royals, just one game above). This gives them an inherent advantage over opponents angling for the second wild-card slot, and in fact the Twins could make a run at earning home-field for the play-in game because the Yankees (currently leading the WC standings by 2.5 games) are facing contenders almost exclusively the rest of the way. New York will get the Indians and Red Sox next week, as Minnesota wraps up a stretch of eight games in 11 days against the AL-worst White Sox, and their best bullpen weapon is currently out of order; Aroldis Chapman was yanked from the closer role following a fourth consecutive shaky outing Friday. 2) They're Playing Really Well It's no secret the Twins have had a hard time overcoming quality teams this year, and that's why this past weekend's showing was so very promising. The Diamondbacks came into town with a record 13 games above .500 and left 10 games over after a thorough dismantling at Target Field. The Twins roster's ability to contend was always going to be reliant on the offense making up for an unspectacular pitching staff, and as the calendar flipped from July to August the lineup was failing to rise to the occasion. But here in August, the hitters have answered the call, averaging 5.7 runs per game – second-best in the AL. Their recent hot streak was punctuated by a nine-run first inning on Sunday that showed everything the unit is capable of: top-to-bottom production, big power, explosive outbursts. That they've been scoring so effectively even with Miguel Sano in a bit of a slump only underscores the potential for the Twins offense down the stretch. They'll need to keep it up with Sano landing on the disabled list Sunday. To that end, the emergence of Byron Buxton at the plate cannot be overstated. With his bat alive, he's among the handful of most valuable players in the game. Only one other team in the race – the Angels – has a player capable of making a similar day-to-day impact. We've seen a huge swing over the past couple weeks, from "Oh, maybe the Twins will hang around and keeps things interesting into September" to "They're on track to enter September as wild-card favorites." Driver's seat. No reason to take the foot off the pedal now. Click here to view the article

He did "cut through opposing lineups with little to no resistance." He allowed three earned runs, 14 hits and 1 HR in 23 innings with 23 K. Then he moved up to Class-A, which plenty of 4th-round picks fail to do in their first year. You're striking an odd balance by saying "this sample is meaningless, but I'm going to apply advanced predictive stats and act like they're the only way to evaluate it"

I don't think anyone can reasonably deny that Rooker has already moved ahead of Diaz in the pipeline. Not really debatable. It's fine that people want to be cautious in drawing conclusions from these small initial samples, but let's stop with the ridiculous minimizing statements. Barnes' peripherals (9.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.18 WHIP, 54% GB) are "awful"? What?? No, not by any stretch, regardless of context. Rooker's .802 OPS (which includes a 1.015 OPS in August) in his first taste of High-A "isn't good"? Come on. These guys are hitting the ground running, almost without exception. It's rare you see that so consistently through the top end of any draft class, especially with the Twins the past few years. That's the only point here, no need to bend over backwards to spew negativity on a harmless set of observations.

When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Minnesota Twins front office, they inherited a tremendous gift: the first overall pick, along with the largest signing pool ever, in the upcoming MLB Draft. This gift was also a potential curse, because if they didn't get it right, the new top execs were going to be judged harshly on their choices in this first draft for many years to come. We're still a long way from being able to make any truly meaningful assessments, but here in the early going, the team's decisions could hardly look better.In his recent Q&A at the Baseball Prospectus Target Field event, the general manager Levine shared some insights on the front office's drafting process, which featured an increased emphasis on analytics: For the first time, the organization had the analytics department put together a model to kind of inform us of some of the decisions we can make in the draft, and just big picture, without getting into too many details. If you tell us what the percentage chance was of the player appearing in one of the next three picks that we had, if you don't take them in the second round, what are the chances he'll be in the third, fourth, or fifth round. This method likely helped facilitate the key maneuver that defined Minnesota's draft: making a surprise pick at No. 1 in Royce Lewis, then using the savings from that selection to later take high school right-hander Blayne Enlow at the top of the third round and sign him with a hugely over-slot bonus. Those two teenagers are both experiencing incredible success in their introductions to the pro ranks, making the Twins look very savvy. Lewis reported to the rookie-level Gulf Coast League and dominated at the plate over 39 games before earning a promotion to Class-A Cedar Rapids last weekend. For a prep pick to reach a full-season league in the same year he was drafted is exceedingly rare (not even Carlos Correa, who we're all dreaming on as a Lewis comp, did it), but it speaks to the 18-year-old's extremely advanced game. The shortstop has made himself right at home as one of the Midwest League's youngest players, going 7-for-13 in his first three games with the Kernels. The last top draft pick for the Twins, Joe Mauer, reached the majors shortly before his 21st birthday, and no younger player has debuted for the franchise since. Lewis is now on track to beat him – maybe handily. Enlow, too, has been sensational in his initial sample. Through four appearances in the GCL, he has a 1.29 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. The righty has faced 54 batters and allowed only three walks and seven hits (five of them singles) while striking out 14 with a 57 percent grounder rate. It doesn't get much better than that. It was surprising that Enlow, ranked as the 33rd best prospect in the class by Baseball America ahead of the draft, fell all the way to the Twins at No. 76 overall, especially because he was widely reputed to have the best curveball of any high schooler in the draft and that pitch has increasingly become a central focus in the game. But it worked out, and the analytics system Levine alluded to may have played into that. Oh, and about that beautiful curveball. Enlow himself likes to admire it, and who can blame him? Looking beyond Lewis and Enlow, nearly every other high-end draft pick from this class is showing positive early signs. Brent Rooker, the collegiate slugger taken with their second pick at No. 35, has already moved up to High-A Fort Myers, and was just named Player of the Week in the Florida State League following a monster stretch for the Miracle. The polished 22-year-old hitter is on the fast track and could conceivably be in Minnesota next year. His presence looms large since the Twins have an upcoming vacancy at first base, and had no particularly attractive long-term solution before Rooker joined the organization. Second-round prep right-hander Landon Leach has looked very sharp in the GCL. Fourth-round left-hander Charlie Barnes has excelled and earned a promotion from Elizabethton to Cedar Rapids. Fifth-rounder Andrew Bechtold, a third baseman out of the University of Maryland, is hitting .311/.414/.472 through 32 games in the Appalachian League. Other pitchers taken in the top 10 rounds, Ryley Widell (7th), Bryan Sammons (8th) and Calvin Faucher (10th) are – without exception – off to terrific starts as pros, racking up strikeouts and shutting down opponents. We're barely two months past the 2017 MLB Draft, and these players have sample sizes so small it would be absurd to draw any definitive conclusions from what we've seen. Still, it's impossible to look at Minnesota's class at this point and not be reaffirmed in your belief in this new regime. The Twins followed a strategy that was viewed by many at the time as unconventional and controversial. Right now, it's looking awfully smart. So far, their batting average in this draft is even higher than Lewis's in the Midwest League. Click here to view the article

With seven wins in their past eight games, the Minnesota Twins have stormed back into the postseason mix. Entering play on Monday, they're a half-game away from a wild-card position, and they'll have a chance to put a dent in Cleveland's 4.5-game division lead when the Indians come to town this week. Let's take a look at some key players who've been trending upward and downward of late, with an eye on long-term implications.WHO'S HOT? 1. Eddie Rosario Brian Dozier could've easily topped this list, of course – he's got 10 homers and a .630 slugging percentage since the All-Star break – but his second-half surging almost feels routine now. A dominant Dozier down the stretch is like clockwork these days. I've been much more surprised by Rosario's torrid stretch, which extends back even further. By the time Dozier started finding his groove about a month ago, Rosario was already in the midst of a prolonged breakout at the plate. His four-hit, three-homer game against Seattle on June 13th proved to be a launching point for what's been the Summer of Eddie. Twelve days later he collected three hits and scored three runs in a sweep-clinching 4-0 victory over Cleveland. A week after that he tallied five knocks in a win at Kansas City. He had eight multi-hit games in July. More recently, his power has been fueling Minnesota's winning ways. Rosario has ripped five homers during the club's latest 7-1 stretch. Altogether, the 25-year-old outfielder has hit .344/.390/.617 since the three-homer outburst in Seattle, quietly emerging as one of the league's most dangerous hitters. It hasn't always been pretty, and his mental lapses can still be utterly confounding (his fine 2-for-3 day on Sunday was marred by one of the ugliest swinging strikeouts you will ever see), but they're happening less and less. Rosario has always had the rare gift of being able to drive a pitch almost anywhere it's thrown, but he's doing a better job of resisting the compulsion to always do so. As Aaron Gleeman tweeted last week, he has dramatically cut down on his swing rate at pitches outside the zone: The results speak for themselves. Two months ago Rosario's long-term viability was beginning to look somewhat suspect, but he has turned a corner in a big way. We should all be celebrating the Summer of Eddie. 2. Trevor Hildenberger J.T. Chargois. Nick Burdi. Tyler Jay. As Minnesota's much-hyped, hard-throwing relief prospects have gone down, one after another, Hildenberger has continued to do the same thing he's always done: fly under the radar and get people out. Twins Daily readers were plenty familiar with our two-time Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year, but Hildenberger isn't the kind of flashy young gun who garners lofty prospect rankings or hyperbole-packed spring newspaper columns. He's certainly making his name known since arriving in the majors, though. Hildenberger has been an absolute revelation for the Twins bullpen. On Sunday, he recorded his first MLB save, dispatching four hitters with a strike-throwing clinic – only two of his 17 offerings missed the zone. That's been the story for the sidearmer more or less since he joined the team. Hildenberger has now gone 14 straight appearances without issuing a walk. He's averaging more than strikeout per inning. He has an outstanding 57.1% ground ball rate. The Twins certainly weakened their bullpen by trading away Brandon Kintzler two weeks ago, but they might actually have found a superior option for the ninth inning in Hildenberger – certainly from a big-picture view. 3. Byron Buxton Hildenberger has made it look easy, arriving in the majors and instantly finding a comfort level. As we all know, it wasn't quite so smooth for Buxton. Anointed the team's No. 3 hitter coming out of camp this year, the 23-year-old sputtered out of the gates, flailing away at the dish and quickly falling back to his customary spot at the bottom of the order. Yet, he shows real signs of figuring it out, albeit not as auspiciously as Rosario. Buxton's story has been one of slow and steady growth. After striking out at a 37% rate in April, he's cut that down to 28% since. He has found much more consistency at the plate since the season's midpoint, with a .347/.407/.458 slash line in 23 games since the start of July. He's also 7-for-7 on steals during that span, and 19-for-20 on the season. So what you have in Buck right now is an on-base machine who can pretty much take second at will whenever he gets on. The power hasn't come yet, but it only feels like a matter of time. WHO'S NOT? 1. Miguel Sano The exhilaration of Buxton's progression has been tempered somewhat by a troubling backslide from his fellow franchise centerpiece. Sano has been striking out a ton, which isn't unusual, but lately he's paired it with an uncharacteristic lack of patience. He walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances up until the All-Star break but that figure has dropped to 4.5% since, and in his past 22 games Sano has drawn only two walks while striking out 40 times. The slugger impressively still has .255 average and .737 OPS during that span, because a slump for him qualifies as average production for mere mortals, but it's concerning to see him so bewildered at the plate. Sano is far too talented a player to be giving away at-bats as frequently as he has. The regressing discipline has been especially noticeable in contrast with the improvements we've seen playing out with Buxton and Rosario. If Sano can find a way to get back into that zone from those early months, the Twins are a legit threat in the playoff race. If he can't, it's really hard to envision. 2. Jose Berrios When Berrios made his triumphant return to the Twins in May and proceeded to torch two high-caliber lineups, it looked like a potential turning point for the rotation. Finally, a vaunted young arm fulfilling his potential and becoming a true impact addition. It was the perfect way to wash away the bad aftertaste of Berrios' nightmarish 2016 debut. His recent outings, however, have had an all-too familiar flavor. In eight starts since the beginning of July, he has a 6.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He's failed to pitch into the sixth frame in five of those outings. While his command hasn't been stellar, the issue this time around plainly is not a lack of control, as it was last year. The problem, oddly, is his stuff. The right-hander's reputed arsenal of hard, darting pitches has been completely hittable over the past several weeks. He hasn't induced double-digit swinging strikes in any of his past seven starts, and on Saturday he mustered only three whiffs on 72 pitches. Berrios had double-digit swinging strikes in seven of his first 10 starts. So what's going on? Why are hitters barreling him up so much more successfully? He hasn't been losing velocity, or any evident bite on his breaking balls. Are teams simply coming up with better plans to attack him? Is he tipping? Are there sequencing issues at play? Whatever the case, he and the coaching staff need to get it fixed in a hurry because it's been ugly lately and Saturday's clunker in Detroit might have been the most unsightly yet. 3. Max Kepler One of the most encouraging things about Kepler's breakthrough campaign at Chattanooga in 2015 was that he finally overcame one of the most crippling flaws in his game: severe vulnerability to same-sided pitchers. In 2013, at Cedar Rapids, he posted a .117/.232/.133 against left-handed pitchers. In 2014, he managed to bat .273 against southpaws but still had a dreadful 26-to-3 K/BB ratio against them in 83 plate appearances. So to see him move up to Double-A and bat .319 with an .863 OPS, and nearly as many walks as strikeouts, was big – a sign that perhaps Kepler could have a future as more than a platoon corner outfielder. His rookie year with the Twins put a ding in those hopes, as he batted .203 with a .595 OPS against lefties, and now as a sophomore he is sitting at a brutal .138/.211/.172. It puts Paul Molitor in a tough position, because right now Kepler doesn't look like a palatable option against left-handed pitchers, but he's young enough that you're doing him a disservice by taking away opportunities to face them. And at this point Robbie Grossman – another slumping hitter who could be listed here with his .205 average and .301 slugging percentage since the break – isn't framing himself as a superior alternative. Which trending Twins have caught your attention lately? Click here to view the article

When rebuilding a broken pitching staff, it's necessary to seek out solutions on all fronts. These include free agency, trades, draft, international, and... independent leagues? That last one isn't necessarily a conventional avenue for adding legitimate talent, but the Minnesota Twins have had some success there, and may have more yet to come.For those who enjoy the human element of the game, there's something special about independent ball. Players in these leagues are a long way from the majors, whether undrafted or trying to make their way back into an MLB system. But they're chasing their dreams, often playing in front of paltry crowds for tiny paychecks. When a guy playing in an independent league is able to catch the attention of a major-league organization and work his way to the bigs, it's always a great story. Rich Hill is the most prominent example in the game today. After washing out of affiliated ball in his mid-30s, he signed with the Long Island Ducks in 2015, where he gained notice from the Boston Red Sox. They signed him, he excelled, and two years later he has a $48 million deal with the Dodgers. The Twins haven't had a success of Hill's magnitude, but they've had some notable hits. Minnesota didn't sign Brandon Kintzler out of an independent league, but the former 40th-round draft pick did spend time playing in the Northern League in 2007 and 2008, then with our local St. Paul Saints in 2009, before latching on with the Brewers and finding his way to the big leagues. He would of course later sign with the Twins and turn into an all-star closer, and now he's in line to be pitching in the playoffs in two months. Kintzler's experience in independent ball is now ancient history, but the Twins have a few players who've been there much more recently. Buddy Boshers caught the team's eye while pitching for Somerset in the Atlantic League and is now a fixture in the Minnesota bullpen. Nik Turley was pitching for that same Somerset club last summer, and inked a minor-league deal with the Twins during the offseason, precipitating a major-league debut this year. Things obviously haven't gone smoothly for the southpaw in his three MLB starts, but he continues to dominate at Rochester and will almost surely get more chances. He could become an asset in the bullpen. Tim Melville may be the next name to watch. The Twins signed him in June from the Long Island Ducks team where Hill re-established himself, and he has been tremendous since joining the Class-AAA Red Wings with a 2.55 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 60 innings. In his latest start for Rochester on Monday, Melville hurled seven innings of one-hit, one-run ball with nine strikeouts. The 27-year-old right-hander is interesting not just because of his recent journey, but because of his history: he's a former fourth-round pick of the Royals who was once ranked among the organization's best young talents and appeared in Baseball Prospectus' Top 100 prospects in 2010. He has flashed good stuff when healthy, with scouts lauding the spin on his breaking balls, and right now it's shining through. If he can keep it up, he may get a look before the year is over. Will he be the next Rich Hill? Not likely. But Melville has a chance to make a real impact, as Boshers has and Turley hopefully still can. At the very least, the former independent leaguer will be another story worth rooting for. Click here to view the article

'It does suck.' Brian Dozier was blunt in expressing his feelings about the front office's deadline approach, with the decisions to flip Jaime Garcia and Brandon Kintzler symbolizing a white flag of sorts. Dozier's frustration is understandable, the culmination of a career's worth of surrender. The clock is ticking on the veteran second baseman if he's ever going to accomplish anything with the team that drafted and developed him.Since he arrived in the majors in 2012, Dozier has been party to an awful lot of losing. He hasn't sniffed the playoffs in five seasons, and that will now more than likely extend to six. Next year is his last under contract with Minnesota, and given the organization's depth in young middle infielders, it seems unlikely they'll pony up to keep him around. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are taking a pragmatic big-picture view, but to Dozier, the big picture is this: he's been doing his part – and then some – for half of a decade, and he's barely experienced a hint of serious contention. This year the team spent much of the first half in first place, and made a move toward going for it, then turned around and traded away their rental starter and best reliever. Joe Mauer hasn't been as vocal (say what??), but he can certainly relate to Dozier's discontent. Mauer is the only longer-tenured Twin, whose career at least merits Hall of Fame arguments, and he has not one single postseason victory to show for it. On the one hand, his journey as a hometown kid turned MVP is the stuff of storybooks. On the other hand, the wasting of his generational talents by a team that could never build enough around him to go anywhere... it's kinda heartbreaking. Of course, as far as 2017 is concerned, Dozier and Mauer would both be wise to look inward before directing their angst at the front office. They've been having perfectly solid years, but the Twins need more from them than that, and they have to recognize it. Dozier and Mauer are supposed to be the experienced, veteran cornerstones of the league's youngest lineup, but each has been downright ordinary. Dozier has been his usual self: one of the game's better power-hitting middle infielders, and a fine defender, but not an upper-echelon player. Last year he was vastly better with the bases empty than with men on, and this year the contrast has only been sharper (stats entering Sunday): Bases Empty: 295 PA, .268/.342/.517, 17 HR Runners On: 169 PA, .208/.302/.318, 2 HR Dozier's production with no ducks shouldn't be downplayed, because everything helps. But he hasn't risen to the occasion enough. Overall his performance doesn't amount to anything special; he ranks 13th out of 22 MLB-qualified second basemen in OPS, 14th in WAR. And Mauer? It's still a pleasure to watch the man take an at-bat, and he's been exquisite with the mitt at first, but his offensive results are as pedestrian as ever. He ranks 22nd among 25 qualified MLB first basemen in OPS. He's still a nice enough piece to have in the lineup, but more of a role player than a game-changer, and that doesn't do much for this team right now. Dozier and Mauer have been in the Twins organization for a combined 24 years, and it's commendable if they are adamant about winning before their tenures simultaneously come to an end next year. Is that realistic, though? And does their presence prevent the team from moving forward with a blueprint that, by necessity, doesn't include them? Barring an improbable late-season charge this year, the 2018 season is shaping up as the first in Minnesota's true winning cycle. But for Dozier and Mauer, it will mean a lot more. Will they be able to make a run with the rising core before departing? Click here to view the article

I didn't say that. Only that we can't confidently pencil him in as a future MLB starter. I'm certainly on board with calling him up and beginning to make that determination now though. What's the hold-up?

Minnesota's decline from early surprise to deadline seller, which began in earnest back in June but culminated last week, can be traced to many causes. Pitching is, of course, tops among them – the Twins rank near the bottom of the league in run prevention, again. But we knew all along that making a go of it this year would require the lineup to perform at a high level and make up for a mediocre-at-best staff. And the way the hitters have failed to rise to that challenge is far more disappointing (and concerning) in my mind.Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put their plans to replenish the pitching pipeline into action, adding several young arms in recent weeks, but the Twins system now leans lopsidedly in that direction. That's because the top talents have, by and large, already graduated. Nick Gordon (AA) is now the only position player prospect among our preseason Top 10 who is currently above A-ball. Mitch Garver (AAA), Daniel Palka (AAA), Zack Granite (MLB) and LaMonte Wade (AA) were in the Top 20, but none project as star hitters or even necessarily as big-league starters. The Twins are going to need to rely primarily on the core currently in place to carry them forward. It's a young group – youngest in the American League, in fact – so growing pains are expected, but you would hope they'd collectively be gelling right now. They're not. An offense that seemed dynamic on paper, and often looked the part early on, has been woefully unexplosive for several weeks. The Twins haven't scored more than six runs in a game since July 7th, and that doesn't really fly in today's MLB, especially when your pitching staff is crummy. Eddie Rosario is having a nice year, but he is essentially the only member of Minnesota's offensive core riding any kind of momentum into the final two months. We talked last week about the struggles Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Joe Mauer have been going through lately. Brian Dozier has taken a step back from his prodigious 2016. Jorge Polanco has been a disaster at the plate for most of the season. Byron Buxton certainly hasn't turned any kind of corner as we had hoped. Almost everywhere you look, Twins hitters are failing to take the kinds of steps forward this club desperately needs them to. That isn't good, because the rebuild currently taking place is completely reliant on these players. Even if things come together exceptionally well on the pitching side and Minnesota moves from the bottom of the pack to the middle next year, a powerful offense needs to be the differentiator in making them a true contender. Lately, that unit has been anything but. So from my view, the lineup's ability to get on track and finish strong will be the decisive factor in determining how confident Twins fans can feel in the club to make a legitimate run in 2018. While there's reason for confidence regarding the organization's pitching pipeline, and the front office's ability to keep supplementing it, there's not much they can realistically do on the offensive side. The building blocks are already in place. Will they provide enough support? Click here to view the article

What's given you this impression? Most of the prospects they've acquired are close to the majors, and they haven't given up anyone who would've helped them in 2018.

The Cleveland Indians went to the World Series last year, and could well return this year, on the strength of a terrific pitching staff. Their exemplary rotation was built through a very distinct strategy, and now their former assistant general manager appears to be implementing the same plan here in Minnesota.Sure, it's great to draft and develop your own arms. But the draft is a known crapshoot, especially where pitchers are concerned (hello, Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay), so the real key is identifying players in other organizations and getting them at just the right time. Three of Cleveland's top starters were acquired at a point when they were big-league ready, or very close, but had little or no MLB experience Corey Kluber came in a trade with San Diego in 2010, when he was in Double-A. He arrived in the majors the next year. Carlos Carrasco was a Triple-A pitcher for the Phillies when he came over in 2008, and debuted for Cleveland the next year. Trevor Bauer was a 21-year-old with four big-league starts when the Indians got him. The Twins, positioned at the front end of what they hope will be a prolonged winning cycle, should be targeting players at this very stage. And they have been. It actually started a year ago, before Falvey and Thad Levine even arrived. At the 2016 deadline, acting GM Rob Antony sent Eduardo Nunez to San Francisco in a deal that looked good at the time and now looks even better. Adalberto Mejia has made 16 starts for the Twins this year, and he's been their third-best starter. In the Rule 5 draft, Minnesota selected Justin Haley, another prospect on the verge of MLB-readiness, though injuries robbed him of the chance to make an impression and he was recently sent back to Boston. When the Twins traded John Ryan Murphy to Arizona last week, they got back Gabriel Moya, a reliever who was dominating Double-A and could enter the picture very quickly. Then, over the weekend, Jaime Garcia's frantic journey landed him in New York, as the Twins flipped him for two more high-performing minor-league pitchers who are close. Dietrich Enns was pitching in Triple-A, with a 2.29 ERA in seven starts, and Zack Littell was 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA in seven starts at Double-A. The sum result of the Garcia moves is this: Minnesota swapped out a teenager in rookie ball for two pitchers capable of helping in 2018. Their entire strategy has followed this general pattern under Falvey and Levine, and I suspect that if any big deals occur on Monday, we'll see it continue. You're not often going to find a Kluber or Carrasco through this method, unless you have big-time talent to dangle, but even getting a few more Mejias would be hugely helpful for the Twins. Click here to view the article

They were never supposed to be here to begin with. I find it important to remind myself of this as I absorb the massive gut punch delivered by Minnesota's rapid fall from contention in the American League Central. This team, fresh off a 103-loss season, gave us all a hell of a ride by hanging around the top of the division for the better part of four months, and even spending six weeks in first place. This summer has been infinitely more fun than the last for baseball fans. I appreciate that. Still, watching it all come crashing down in spectacular fashion, it's hard not to feel a sense of familiar dread.To go from a half-game out of first place to six games out within the span of eight days is actually quite astounding, made possible by a couple of lousy series against Detroit and Los Angeles while the Indians and Royals have both taken off. At crunch time, these teams are all showing their mettle. I'm not going to take the hack columnist route and call the Twins gutless, or frauds. They've battled in these games, and overperformed like hell to get to this point. But if the front office decides to start flipping core players like Brandon Kintzler, Ervin Santana or even Brian Dozier within the next few days, the players will have no one to blame but themselves. They got a vote of confidence from GM Thad Levine, who went out and acquired one of the best rental starters available, and they immediately flatlined. In three straight games against the (admittedly phenomenal) Dodgers, the Twins took leads and let them slip away. Two of the losses came with their best relievers (Kintzler and Taylor Rogers) on the mound. Repeatedly the offense failed to capitalize on big scoring chances. (The bases-loaded ineptitude has been particularly agonizing.) And, well, that kind of failure is all too recognizable. The Twins have developed a reputation for coming up short in recent years, and after a solid start this season they've fallen right back into that pit. Since moving seven games above .500 by completing a sweep of the Orioles on May 24th, they are 24-33, good for a .421 winning percentage that matches their overall mark from the past six years exactly. Sure, the Twins are now steering for clearer waters after running through a post-break gauntlet, with series against the Athletics, Padres, Rangers and slumping Brewers ahead, but there's not really anything to suggest they'll take advantage in a significant way. The breakout players that powered their early ascent have dropped off almost without exception. Ervin Santana has a 5.46 ERA and and .908 OPS allowed since the beginning of June. Jose Berrios has a 5.79 ERA and (incidentally identical) .908 OPS allowed in July. Miguel Sano is hitting .238/.319/.397 with a 26-to-5 K/BB ratio since the Fourth of July. Max Kepler is at .222/.286/.302 over the same span. Joe Mauer hasn't hit the ball with any kind of authority since returning from a back strain earlier this month; he's managed one extra-base hit (a double) in 38 plate appearances. The blueprint for this team to stay in the postseason mix involved all of these players turning it on in the second half, not turning into pumpkins. Alas, here we are. The Twins have stunned us time and time again with their resilience this summer, and perhaps their biggest surprise is yet to come, but watching them over the course of the past week, it sure feels like they've run out of whatever juice propelled them through the first half. So now Levine and Derek Falvey, taking a big picture view, must concentrate on squeezing whatever juice they can from this roster. It might mean making some hard decisions this weekend, though the team's play over the past week has made them a little easier. Click here to view the article

We've run through the entire National League, covering the most intriguing trade possibilities in all three divisions, so it's time to turn our attention to the Junior Circuit. Could the Twins work out a beneficial deal with one of the five teams in the AL West?Now that they revived and completed the Jaime Garcia trade, the Twins are probably done shopping for starting pitchers, but the hunt for relief help continues. This will be our focus as we examine buyers and sellers out west. STANDINGS Houston Astros: 66-33 Seattle Mariners: 50-51 (17 GB) Los Angeles Angels: 49-51 (17.5 GB) Texas Rangers: 48-51 (18 GB) Oakland Athletics: 44-55 (22 GB) THE BUYERS The Astros are running away with the division, and are buyers in the sense that they're clearly in championship mode, though it's not clear where they really need to add. Houston has been dominant in pretty much all phases, though obviously you can never have too many bullets. THE SELLERS The Mariners, Angels and Rangers are all closely bunched behind Houston -- albeit WAY behind Houston. Each is a potential player in the wild card race, and hard-pressed to dump key pieces, but none are in position to make a huge splash in pursuit of the playoffs. The A's, meanwhile, are out of it and ready to move any assets. The Mariners The M's recently traded four prospects to acquire reliever David Phelps from the Marlins, so it seems unlikely they'll dismantle their bullpen at this point, despite facing long odds. Steve Cishek is one name to watch: he's on an expiring contract and could be a decent addition at the right price. The Angels The Halos are in the wild-card mix but if they decide to pack up and sell they have a number of relief rentals that might appeal to the Twins. Namely: Bud Norris, Yusmeiro Petit and David Hernandez. All three have been excellent. Minnesota and the Anaheimers of course linked up last year on a deadline deal involving Ricky Nolasco and Hector Santiago. The Rangers Texas is a pivotal deadline player, holding the biggest publicized trade chip in Yu Darvish, who is due to hit free agency at season's end. If they choose to ship out Darvish, it won't be to Minnesota, and there isn't really a bullpen match here unless they then decide to ship out a controllable reliever like Matt Bush or Jeremy Jeffress. The Athletics Oakland has already flipped a pair of its top relievers, sending Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle to Washington, so the Twins might've missed the boat here. Now, all attention is on Sonny Gray, who is the biggest name being bandied about right now after Darvish (and far more likely to be moved). Gray is controlled through 2019, so he'd fit with the front office's long-term thinking, but would cost an awful lot. SUMMARY You can dream on Darvish or Gray, but the most realistic targets in the AL West are mid-tier relievers like the Angels' trio of Norris, Petit and Hernandez. Click here to view the article

But they didn't really "trade and sign" Pavano. They offered arbitration and he accepted to get a one-year deal, which obviously worked out very nicely because he was great in 2010. Only after that did they give him the (ill-advised?) two-year contract. Along those same lines, extending a qualifying offer to Garcia in is an interesting thought, but maybe not palatable given that it's now like 1 yr/$18m