Nick Nelson

I only meant it in the sense that he misses bats and gets strikeouts, especially compared to his peers. His CB is an overpowering pitch.

This is a process/results thing though. Good things definitely come out of an approach that leads to strikeouts (namely, tons of power). Sure, it'd be nice to have guys who can hit 40 HR with a low K-rate but those players are beyond rare.

On Sunday, the Minnesota Twins played their 81st game of the season, meaning we are exactly halfway through this 2017 campaign. At this midpoint, it is always fun to double up statistics for certain players and see how they project for the whole year. Some of these ones might surprise you.Of course, we must bear in mind that a year ago, Brian Dozier had 13 home runs through 81 games, and finished with 42. Things change, as we all know, and rarely does a player put together two equal halves. Still, for the sake of fun, and contextualizing what we've seen from Twins players over the first half, here are nine players with numbers worth chewing on as we gear up for the final three months. 1. Ervin Santana is on pace for 20 wins and 6 shutouts Even if you discount the value of the Almighty W, reaching the 20-win plateau is still a pretty cool achievement – one we haven't seen from a Twin since Johan Santana in 2004. If he can spin three shutouts in the second half, as he did in the first, he'll end up with the highest total for an MLB starter since Cliff Lee notched six back in 2011. No one has tallied more since 1989 (Tim Belcher). 2. Miguel Sano is on pace for 40 home runs, 116 RBI, and 216 strikeouts The Twins went nearly five decades between seeing players eclipse 40 homers; now, they might see it in two straight seasons. With 116 RBI, Sano would finish with the highest total since Justin Morneau in 2008 (129), and ninth-most ever for a Minnesota Twin. Only three hitters in baseball history have struck out more than 216 times in a season: Mark Reynolds in 2009 (223), Adam Dunn in 2012 (222), and Chris Davis in 2016 (219). 3. Robbie Grossman is on pace for 88 walks Contemporary Twins rosters haven't exactly been known for showing exceptional patience, but Grossman redefines selectiveness at the plate. Since 2000, only three Twins have drawn more than 85 walks: Matt Lawton in 2000 (91), Mauer in 2012 (90), and Dozier in 2014 (89). Grossman, incredibly, is on track to get there it in barely over 500 plate appearances; each of the other three needed at least 640 PA. Grossman also finishes the first half ranked among MLB's top five in K/BB ratio, with some pretty stellar company: Joey Votto, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Anthony Rizzo. 4. Brandon Kintzler is on pace for 42 saves In my mind, perhaps the unlikeliest success story of this 2017 Twins season. Kintzler has been far more than adequate in the closer role. Only two Twins have ever notched more than 42 saves in a season: Joe Nathan three times, and Eddie Guardado once. Kintzler's 88 percent conversion rate is on par with the franchise's finest. 5. Taylor Rogers is on pace to make 72 appearances Two years ago, Rogers was a solid minor-league starter. Now, he is the most frequently deployed weapon in Paul Molitor's bullpen, proving himself as much more than a situational left-hander. Rogers has earned the manager's trust by pounding the strike zone and, surprisingly, shutting down righties: they're hitting .227/.275/.253 against him. 6. Byron Buxton is on pace to steal 28 bases... and get caught twice He still isn't getting on base nearly as much as we'd like, but when he does, Buxton is doing damage. In the grand scheme, 28 steals isn't an historic number, though it would be the most for a Twin since Ben Revere snagged 40 in 2012. That 93 percent success rate, however, provides a tantalizing taste of how unstoppable the 23-year-old's speed will be on the base paths once he spends more time there. 7. Matt Belisle is on pace to issue 34 walks It remains to be seen if he will get enough rope to reach such a number, at least in a Twins uniform, but Belisle's once reputable control has vanished completely. Only once in his career has the veteran surpassed 34 walks – back in 2007, when he issued 43 in 177 innings as a full-time starter for the Reds. 8. Tyler Duffey is on pace for 82 strikeouts in relief It took the Twins up until the end of spring training to settle on a role for Duffey. It looks like they made the right choice. He's had some hiccups, but Duffey has been the best power arm in the Minnesota bullpen. Whereas the other high-K righties in the relief corps (Ryan Pressly and Michael Tonkin) have imploded, Duffey has translated the stuff into clean outings more often than not. In his first season in the new role, he is on track for the most strikeouts from a Twin pitching exclusively in relief since Joe Nathan's 89 in 2009. 9. Chris Gimenez is on pace to make 228 plate appearances... and 12 pitching appearances We didn't know what to expect when the Twins signed Gimenez to a minor-league deal in mid-January. His modest track record included a .632 OPS, frequent shuttling between organizations, and zero seasons with more than 155 plate appearances in the majors. But at 34, Gimenez has been a mainstay for Minnesota. He has reliably spelled Jason Castro behind the plate every third day or so, and his spelling of the pitching staff has been crucial, eating innings when the team badly needs it. What Gimenez is doing is essentially unprecedented in the modern game; since 1960, no position player has made 12 relief appearances in his career, much less one season. Click here to view the article

He has issued 17 walks already in 33 appearances. His highest previous total in fulltime reliever duty was 18, in 2012, when he made 80 appearances. Granted, five of his 17 this year are IBB, but he's also frequently putting himself in a position where the team is forced to call for one. Belisle is a pitcher that needs pinpoint command to get it done, and he's been far from that. The small sample argument is not compelling to me. We're halfway through the season, he's showing no visible signs of improvement, and there's no long-term upside with a 37-year-old on a one-year deal. I suspect Hughes will bump him from the roster upon his return.

The troubling trend of TOS surgery survivors, a veteran reliever headed toward an unceremonious exit, and a new side-arming righty bringing back memories good and bad. We'll cover three trending storylines in the latest Three-Bagger below the fold.* Dillon Gee's time on Minnesota's 25-man roster was brief and uneventful – he didn't make it into a game between being called up on Friday and sent back to the minors on Monday. There is, however, little doubt that we'll be seeing him again soon enough. The addition of Gee on a minor-league deal last week was interesting, and not because he is yet another marginal arm mixed in as the Twins desperately seek numbers for a thin staff. More noteworthy, in my mind, is that the right-hander is another victim of the thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS) epidemic, having undergone surgery for the ailment last October. This condition, generally affecting blood circulation to the arm and sensation in the hand, and the rib removal procedure used to address it, have risen in prominence recently. Several high-profile pitchers are currently trying to work their way back, including Phil Hughes. The early returns have been roundly unencouraging. Gee was released by the Rangers earlier this month after failing to impress. Hughes has struggled mightily while dealing with recurring symptoms, and will now try to return as a reliever. Matt Harvey, who underwent the surgery last summer around the same time as Hughes, is sidelined indefinitely with further shoulder issues after posting a 5.25 ERA in 13 starts for the Mets. Tyson Ross, eight months removed from his own TOS operation, had a 7.71 ERA in four rehab starts at Triple-A before being called up and now has a 6.13 ERA in three starts with Texas. Not only have these TOS recoverers failed to show any kind of meaningful improvement in velocity or stuff; many are having trouble even staying on the mound. Not a great sign. * The decision to send down Gee was puzzling and looked worse in hindsight when a rain delay on Tuesday night forced Hector Santiago out after two innings. It would've been a perfect opportunity for Gee to eat some innings but instead the Twins had to piece things together with an already beat-up bullpen. All so the club can continue to roster Matt Belisle, despite his providing no reason to do so. The 37-year-old made another lackluster appearance on Monday night, allowing an RBI single to Dustin Pedroia and then issuing an intentional walk before exiting. Evidently it was enough to keep him hanging around for whatever reason because Gee was deemed more expendable. Showing little command of a consistently hittable repertoire, Belisle is bound be let loose soon enough. While he looked like a better signing than Tim Stauffer v. 2015 on the surface, the results have been depressingly similar. Craig Breslow has been equally uninspiring, though he's been relegated to pitching almost exclusively in lopsided losses so it's less noticeable. For better or worse, until the Twins decide to go out and get some help, I'm ready to mostly hand this thing over to the young guys. Like this one: * Will Trevor Hildenberger, called up alongside Gee last Friday, be an impact upgrade for the bullpen? His transcendent brilliance while rising through the Twins system does pique the curiosity. It comes down to which franchise precedent he comes closest to following. With his quirky sidearm delivery and absurd numbers in the minors, Hildenberger calls to mind two former Twins relievers, representing very different career outcomes: Pat Neshek and Anthony Slama. Both right-handers flat-out decimated minor-league hitters, but neither enjoyed a lofty prospect status reflective of those monster stats, due to fastballs that barely touched 90 and a perceived gimmicky approach. Neshek, of course, had no problem translating his game to the majors. He was immediately dominant when called up to the Twins in 2006, embarking upon a tremendously successful career that continues today. (In fact, the now-36-year-old Phillies reliever figures to be a top Twins trade deadline target.) Slama never got more than a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues and quietly fizzled out. He retired with a career 2.51 ERA and 12.0 K/9 rate in the minors, and seven total innings pitched in the majors. The newcomer will surely fall somewhere in between; the question is which one he'll land closer to. Hildenberger's numbers in the minors overshadow both Neshek and Slama. In parts of four minor-league seasons, he has registered a 1.57 ERA and 200-to-26 (!) K/BB ratio over 172 innings. He has been Twins Daily's choice for Minor League Reliever of the Year in each of the past two seasons on the basis of those numbers. But as a former 22nd-round draft pick with plenty of skeptics, he'll need to prove himself and earn his way into high-leverage innings. Here's hoping he can follow the path of Neshek and become a game-changer for a bullpen that will take any help it can get, no matter how "gimmicky." Click here to view the article

His palms are sweaty. Knees weak, arms are heavy. There's vomit on his sweater already, mom's spaghetti. He's nervous, but on the surface he looks calm and ready. The lyrics of Brandon Kintzler's entrance song, 'Lose Yourself' by Eminem, describe an overwhelmed emcee struggling to control his nerves as he takes the stage. Much like Em's character in 8 Mile, Kintzler has much to prove, and despite lacking the prototypical traits of a shutdown closer, he's definitely making the most out of his one shot.The path that led Kintzler to the ninth inning in Minnesota might be worthy of its own biopic; a former 40th-round draft pick who spent parts of multiple seasons playing independent ball (including a stint with the St. Paul Saints), washed out in Milwaukee due to injuries, and joined the Twins as a low-key minor-league signing. The right-hander fell into closer duties last summer because the two top guys lined up for the job were unable to get it done. Glen Perkins pitched in only two games before succumbing to shoulder issues that would require surgery. Kevin Jepsen was a mess as his replacement. Kintzler, pitching as well as anyone in the bullpen, started seeing save chances in mid-June and handled them well enough to keep getting more. One year later, he has not only earned a tight grip on the role with the Twins, but has in fact blossomed as one of the game's most effective closers. Though he wasn't credited with a save for wrapping up Sunday's sweep-clinching 4-0 victory over Cleveland, Kintzler had pulled into a tie for the American League lead in saves with his 20th on Saturday. In a bullpen besieged by turmoil, and constantly in flux, he has been an incredibly steady presence at the back end. His importance to the success of the Twins, back in first place, can hardly be overstated. The relief unit has let a number of games get away, but rarely has it happened under Kintzler's watch. The 32-year-old has converted 20 of 23 save opportunities, posting a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 32 appearances – nearly all of them high-leverage. It wouldn't be shocking to see him named to the All-Star team when rosters are announced. One might say he's doing it against all odds. Of course, there is the aforementioned improbable career journey leading up to this point, but there is also the basic arithmetic of baseball. I'll admit that I've been skeptical of the veteran's ability to succeed as a closer, because his contact-heavy recipe often proves hazardous when the stakes are so high and the margin for error so thin. He is a rare breed. His 16.2 percent strikeout rate ranks among MLB's bottom 20; no other closer is even in that vicinity. You just don't see ninth-inning men in today's game with a pitch-to-contact profile, and for the most part, even a moderate K deficiency tends to be a bad harbinger (see: Sam Dyson and Jeanmar Gomez). The math tells us more balls in play means more opportunities for rallies to unfold. Few pitchers can run away from these basic realities forever, as Ervin Santana has learned this month while watching his BABIP rapidly normalize. Kintzler's 4.14 xFIP makes it tough for the analyst in me to get excited about his long-term outlook as closer. Yet, I can no longer find it in me to get apprehensive when he takes the mound. He's been doing this for long enough – more than a calendar year now – that it's hard to view his excellence as any kind of fluke, regardless of what the peripherals might say. If his knees are weak or his palms are sweaty as he readies in the pen, then Kintzler shows no sign of it whatsoever. His poise is tremendous. He doesn't get flustered, and executes pitches in almost every spot. His signature power sinker is almost always on. He rarely issues a walk (in fact, he hasn't handed out a single one in 11 June appearances) and this helps offset the infrequent whiffs, as does his propensity for limiting loud contact. I still would not plan around Kintzler as my permanent closer going forward, but his performance since taking over the role has been nothing short of amazing. With big shoes to fill and with immense pressure bearing down on him every time he takes the mound to protect a narrow lead for a team that can ill afford to let any extra games slip, he is thriving. Providing reliability on a pitching staff with a dire shortage of the same, Kintzler has been a godsend. His continually remarkable work is finally turning me from skeptic into stan. Click here to view the article

He has one option left. Was added to the 40-man following 2014 season so he's been optioned twice.

It was an all too familiar sight on Tuesday evening at Target Field: Eddie Rosario, in the name of being aggressive, making an unbelievably dumb play and costing his team. On this occasion, against the White Sox, he fielded a ball in left field and chucked it toward home plate in a hopeless attempt to beat a runner scoring easily from second. The throw was off line and, as catcher Jason Castro ran over to catch it, Jose Abreu strode leisurely into second, credited with a 'double.' Paul Molitor might have gained a gray hair or two, but definitely lost a little more of whatever patience remains for the young outfielder, who shows minimal interest in tempering his recklessly aggressive style.On the Gleeman & the Geek podcast a few weeks ago, Aaron cited a rather remarkable stat. Among all left fielders in the history of baseball who've made 1,000 plate appearances, Rosario's career on-base percentage (.296) ranks dead last. He has had the worst strike zone control of any player in the majors since arriving, with his 0.15 BB/K ratio ranking 185th out of 185 qualified players over the past three seasons. He lets his aggressiveness get the best of him at the plate, just as it does in the field, canceling out raw ability that too rarely shines through. The habits we expected Rosario to outgrow linger on, at age 25 and coming up on his 300th MLB game. He has been an altogether consistent hitter over the course of his up-and-down time in the bigs, with all the hot streaks and slumps adding up to roughly the same OPS every year (.742 career, .771 in 2017). That production would be perfectly fine from someone like Byron Buxton, who adds immense value on defense, but Rosario is a far cry. He plays a position with higher offensive expectations and he hasn't been playing it all that well. While defensive metrics love Buxton, they don't look so kindly upon Rosario, who rates negatively by both UZR and DRS. The small sample caveat obviously applies, but I don't think anyone who's watched him in left regularly would disagree. Now, this bears noting: Rosario is presently a year younger – and 200 plate appearances shy – of where Aaron Hicks was entering this season. Too many times we have seen a hopeless case suddenly flip on the light bulb, and with his electric ability Rosario would shine brighter than most if he could find the switch. He is a tremendous athlete. He hit three home runs in a game less than 10 days ago. His competitive fire would be refreshing and entertaining if it didn't so often burn him, and the team. Is he starting to feel the heat? The microscope is magnifying with a higher power lens with Zack Granite making serious noise at Class-AAA Rochester. The Twins 2016 Minor League Player of the Year is batting .349/.402/.479 for the Red Wings, with a .478 average in the month of June. A scrappy and speedy center fielder known for his high baseball IQ, he is an enticing option, albeit one with a far lower ceiling than Rosario. The big-picture play is to let things ride. Keep hoping it finally clicks for Rosario and let Granite continue to tear it up, maybe come up late in the year to get his feet wet as a fifth outfielder. But Molitor's fading club needs a spark, and the manager is undoubtedly exasperated with watching his blunderous left fielder hurt an already overmatched pitching staff. Swapping Rosario for Granite would certainly send a message. Are the Twins, whose deadline approach will be dictated by the next four weeks, ready to send it? Click here to view the article

I'm a big fan of Mejia but he has a 4.9 BB/9 rate and a 6.01 FIP, has pitched past the fifth inning only twice in nine starts. He's on thin ice. (Or would be, if they had anything for alternatives.)

With a four-game sweep at Target Field over the weekend, Cleveland surpassed Minnesota in the standings, knocking the Twins out of first place for the first time since early May. Let's be honest: this was inevitable. The Indians are plainly a better team, and in order to hang with them for the rest of the summer, the Twins are going to need to figure some things out.Offensively, the two clubs have been equally productive. Entering Sunday's series finale, the Twins and Indians had both scored 310 runs, with nearly identical team OPS marks (.754 and .759). Only one offense really showed up over the past four games, however. The Indians piled up 28 runs in the sweep while the Twins managed to push only eight across. Minnesota was at the mercy of a vastly superior staff, a disadvantage that will make retaking first place an exceedingly difficult proposition. The formula for the Twins has pretty much gone like this: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, pray for rain (or lots of run support). Neither of the two top starters was available in this series and rain mostly stayed away, so the remainder of a highly unimpressive rotation took its beatings. Meanwhile, the contrast in bullpen quality was blindingly evident, as Cleveland countered ineffectual efforts from the Twins with dominance from the likes of Andrew Miller, Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw. Measured by Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), the Indians rank as the best staff in the American League, and the Twins rank worst. So the lopsided outcomes are fairly unsurprising and trading places atop the division was all but inevitable. Cleveland's lead is likely to expand, too, unless the Twins can find a way to solve the hopeless patchwork comprising the back half of their rotation. The Contention Conundrum There is one school of thought that goes like this: the Twins aren't ready to compete yet, and winning in the short term should not be a primary consideration. I can only respond by channeling Eduardo Escobar: C'MON! I'm all for keeping the big picture in mind, but at the same time, the Twins are doing themselves a disservice if they don't make efforts to get the most out of this season. You cannot take for granted that you'll have another year where so many things play out right. It's easy to get caught up in the team's weaknesses after a demoralizing sweep, but let's not overlook the strengths that kept them in first place for five straight weeks. Miguel Sano is mashing at an elite level. Basically every other hitter is at least holding his own at the plate. Byron Buxton, one of the few who isn't, has finally been healthy and is changing games with his defense. Jose Berrios is fulfilling his potential before our very eyes. Ervin Santana has been one of the league's best starters. Brandon Kintzler has, somehow, been one of the its most effective closers. Cleveland is good, but it's not clear any of the other AL Central teams are. The Twins have some glaring flaws, to be sure, but there's a real opportunity to compete into September and maybe beyond. Focusing on that goal may force the organization to make some tough calls. No Easy Answers I think we can safely say plugging in waiver wire fodder like Adam Wilk and Chris Heston is not going to be the solution to Minnesota's pitching woes. Nor does it appear that Nik Turley is going to get it done. Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia have been erratic messes. Yet, for now, there is little choice but to keep running them out there. Hector Santiago appears close to returning (he'll make a rehab start this week) but he brings little assurance at this point. Phil Hughes is not all that close, and may come back as a reliever. I got this text last week from one of my more optimistic, bright-side-seeking Twins fan friends: "I know this is easier said than done but I really think if we could find even two more adequate starting pitchers and like three more bullpen arms we'd be just fine." I mean, you said it man. Unfortunately, finding adequate arms is a challenge that has vexed this franchise for the better part of a decade. In the minors, the Twins really have two players with the legitimate ability to enter the mix as difference-makers in the rotation. At Class-AA Chattanooga, Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves (ranked Nos. 1 and 2 on Twins Daily's top prospect list) have both been tearing it up for the past several weeks. They have stuff that could play in the big leagues. But this is where the front office must weigh that big picture against maximizing the team's chances in the present. You certainly don't want to throw a guy into the fire before he's ready; neither prospect has made even 20 starts at Double-A, or any at Triple-A. There is also the matter of protecting arms. Romero missed two entire seasons before returning to throw 90 innings last year, while Gonsalves missed the first chunk of this year with shoulder issues. The organization is trying to carefully manage workloads and strain, which is much harder to do in the majors. Then again, there are not a lot of alternatives. Trading away significant talent for an impact starter would be more harmful to the long-term structure, and we've seen the types of replacement level talent out there in waivers and free agency. The Twins can either stick with that plan, or they can turn to the best internal options they have, slightly ahead of schedule. These are the tricky decisions involved with trying to hang in a race. It's nice to be in a position to tackle them again, and we'll learn much about the new regime in seeing how they proceed. Click here to view the article

Thank you! This kind of comment is a day-maker, glad you enjoyed. Looking forward seeing you around. Also: excellent username choice.

At the end of the MLB Draft's first day, most Minnesota Twins fans found themselves in a state of confusion. The team surprisingly chose Royce Lewis first overall, seemingly with the intention of saving bonus money for a later splash, but neither of their next two picks qualified as such. Brent Rooker and Landon Leach, selected at 35 and 37, did not stand out as the kinds of players requiring an aggressive over-slot bid to sign. As it turns out, the true key to their strategy wouldn't become apparent until the first pick of day two. With their top selection in the third round, 76th overall, the Twins selected Blayne Enlow, a prep righty from Louisiana.The interest in Enlow does not come as a surprise, at least not for those who've been following our coverage. In his 10-round Twins mock, Jeremy Nygaard had Minnesota taking the prep right-hander with their second pick at No. 35. They ended up taking him 41 spots later, and then immediately agreed to terms on a bonus of $2 million. That's a bit higher than the slot value at 35 and 37, and nearly three times the set figure at 76 ($755K). The Twins paid Enlow like a first-round talent, and they're hardly the only ones who viewed him as one. The righty had been ranked as the 29th-best player in the draft by MLB, and 33rd by Baseball America. Either because he slid on other boards, or because he already had a deal in place with the Twins, Enlow went undrafted through the first 75 picks, allowing Minnesota to land him after already adding three other prospects they coveted. Putting all the pieces together, it looks like Enlow was the key target for Derek Falvey's front office all along. And when we take a closer look at the pitcher's defining traits, there's really only one way to spin this story. The Unteachable Skill Last week, Parker Hageman wrote here about one of the main hold-ups with Hunter Greene: his trouble with the curve. In short, while the fireballing phenom makes headlines for his hellacious heater, his breaking balls are lagging behind due to insufficient spin. There is a growing body of evidence that a great curveball cannot really be taught. After a certain age, a fairly early one, your ability to spin the ball kind of is what it is. You either have it, or you don't. The subject gained national steam when spotlighted by Tom Verducci in a recent feature for Sports Illustrated: So inscrutable is the magic of a curveball that it is accepted wisdom in the game that, while pitchers can learn to sink a baseball (with a two-seamer) and cut it (with a cutter or slider), they generally cannot learn how to throw a great curve. It is not a projectable pitch. Organizations have learned that if someone does not show an aptitude to spin the baseball as an amateur, it’s foolish to expect him to acquire the skill. As it happens, this is Enlow's speciality. Twins scouting director Sean Johnson told reporters after the draft, "He may have I think the best curveball in the high school group ... He can spin the ball, which is hard to teach." The Twins aren't alone in that assessment. MLB.com draft guru Jim Callis had named Enlow's as the best curveball in this class, describing it as "a 12-to-6 hammer in the low 80s." We see him break off quite a few here, and here: In the recipe for a big-league starter, Enlow might already bring the most important ingredient. Following the Leaders I wrote earlier this week that Minnesota took a page out of the Houston Astros playbook from 2012 with their approach at No. 1 overall this year. But not until I looked closer did I realize the nearly identical blueprints. Five years ago, Houston passed on a high school star widely heralded as a generational talent, favoring a prep shortstop with a lesser profile. They used the savings from that under-slot signing to lure a an underdrafted teenage pitcher away from his college commitment. That pitcher? Lance McCullers. And wouldn't you know, he also happens to be known for his curve. In fact, he was one of the focal points of Verducci's aforementioned SI piece, which included this nugget from the Houston righty: “I don’t view my curveball as complementary stuff. Whereas old school was more like, ‘No, establish the fastball, pound the heater and wait until they prove they can hit it.’ Well, what if I have two guys on and I’m trying to establish my heater, and he hits it out of the ballpark? You saw it in the postseason: Now it’s about pitchers challenging guys with their best pitch, and that means a lot of curveballs.” By going against convention, the Astros ended up with one of the most successful draft outcomes in recent memory, reeling in McCullers and Carlos Correa who are now both key contributors for the best team in baseball. The Big Picture In essence, it looks like the pitching-needy Twins decided to bet on Enlow's curveball rather than Greene's fastball. As you might expect with this analytical new front office leadership, there is plenty of data to back up that mindset. Evidence tells us an 18-year-old kid like Enlow can add velocity and learn sink after joining the pro ranks, but Greene may struggle to round out his repertoire. There's also a case to be made that the latter carries more injury risk. By making Enlow rather than Greene the featured prep arm in their draft class, the Twins also managed to net a potential star in Lewis with their top pick. It's a bold strategy, to be sure, and one that will open this organization up to a great deal of hindsight criticism if it flounders. Then again, if the Astros worried about such things a half-decade ago, they might still be spinning their wheels instead of dominating the league. Click here to view the article

So you send him down to Triple-A, and he rakes again for several weeks, meanwhile the MLB team is worse-off without him. Then what? Bring him back up and hope it's different from the last handful of times they tried the same thing? Buxton needs to stay up here, getting everyday reps against big-league pitching, working with James Rowson, and helping these pitchers. I don't even really see it as debatable.

My theory? They wanted Enlow. Had him lined up at 35 or 37 (where the bonuses are 1.9m/1.8m) but told him they would give him a little more if he informed other teams he wasn't going to sign so he could slide and the Twins could use those picks on other guys they liked. Then, they draft him at 76, give him a bonus higher than either the 35 or 37 slot (I hear $2M?) and come away with what they feel are four 1st/2nd-round talents. I like it.

The opening moments of Monday night's MLB Draft played out quite similarly to the one that took place five years prior. The Minnesota Twins, holding the first overall pick, went against the grain by selecting prep shortstop Royce Lewis, whom few regarded as the best available player. Meanwhile, the consensus top talent, Hunter Greene, fell to a grateful Cincinnati Reds organization at two. In 2012, it was the Twins who were beneficiaries in a similar slot-allocation play at No. 1, when Houston's surprising selection of Carlos Correa dropped top-ranked Byron Buxton to Minny. Obviously the Astros are feeling good about their decision, and we'll all be thrilled if Lewis even approaches Correa's brilliance, but today I wanted to recognize the player who landed here. Buxton may not be matching Correa's ridiculous pace, and has certainly had his troubles, but he is an absolute treat to watch and – I will argue – already a star at age 23 in spite of a cringeworthy .200/.271/.291 hitting line.Clearly, the bat hasn't yet come around for Buxton. He has taken a step backward following last year's late surge, and sits with the fifth-worst OPS in the majors as we approach the halfway point. Nevertheless, he is maintaining a positive WAR (0.8 according to BR, 0.5 according to FG). He is managing to make himself an essential everyday player, by chipping in defensively in ways that are extraordinary – though difficult to fully appraise. Fielding metrics love him. FanGraphs has the center fielder tied with Colorado's DJ LeMahieu for fifth in the majors in defensive runs saved (DRS), at nine. The site also has Buck in the Top 10 for Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). According to StatCast, he leads the league in four-star plays (26-50% probability) and is 12-for-12 on such opportunities. Some of these statistics try to quantify the tangible value of Buxton's defensive contributions, and do so generously. But can they truly encompass the extent of his impact? Sure, a calculation can spit out a "runs saved" number by comparing plays against baseline probabilities and running them through scoring matrixes (as DRS does), but Buxton helps the Twins in ways that go beyond measurement. Consider this scenario. A shaky pitcher is struggling with his command in the early innings. He's got a runner on first with one out. He hangs one over the plate, and the batter drives it deep into a gap. After a great read, Buxton makes a catch at full speed that virtually any other center fielder fails to make. Most don't come close. The baserunner, already rounding second, slams the brakes and scurries back. The pitcher, pounding his mitt in celebration, now has a runner on first with two outs rather than a run in, a man on second or third, and one out. (In other words, a rally.) He gets a grounder and escapes the inning. Buxton has not only saved runs, but also further physical and mental taxation for his teammate on the mound. This isn't a hypothetical situation. It has played out, in some form, time and time again. I don't feel like I'm stretching it to say that Buxton's consistent presence in center has been THE biggest difference-maker for Twins pitching this year. Although the team ERA has improved, from 5.08 to 4.87, the FIP (Fielding Independent) mark has inflated substantially from 4.57 to 5.05. You can make a good case the staff has actually pitched worse, just with much better support. Other players are doing nice things defensively, and Jason Castro deserves his share of credit, but no one has changed games like Buxton. He deserves way more credit for this team's position five games above .500 than he is generally receiving. And that's without providing much of anything with his bat. We will have to keep waiting on that, and cases like Aaron Hicks remind us these things can take time, but I continue to believe Buxton is far too talented and eminently capable to not figure things out at the plate rather soon. Once he does, his rise to elite stardom will be as direct as his path to silencing a screaming liner. Click here to view the article

On Monday evening, the Minnesota Twins will make the No. 1 selection in the MLB Draft for the first time since 2001. By all accounts, their choice comes down to three main names, with a few outside possibilities in play. This primer will get you completely up to speed on all the latest news, rumors and rumblings as we head toward a pivotal moment for the franchise. LAST CALL Saturday was monumental for Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright. Each collegiate hurler took the hill as starting pitcher for his team in a critical Super Regionals game. Both were televised on ESPN. And on top of all that, the draft prospects know they were making their closing arguments for the distinction (and signing bonus) of becoming the first player taken Monday. For their teams and for them personally, the stakes could not have been higher for McKay and Wright. McKay rose to the occasion in a big way, leading his Louisville Cardinals to a series-clinching victory over Kentucky with 6 2/3 scoreless innings. His impressive performance came on the heels of this report from MLB.com's Jim Callis: "Though the teams selecting behind the Twins think they're leaning toward Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, I started hearing whispers Thursday night that Minnesota prefers Louisville two-way star Brendan McKay. That noise is getting louder Friday, and I now believe the Twins will take McKay No. 1, as a left-handed pitcher rather than a first baseman, unless California high school righty Hunter Greene overwhelms them in his visit to Target Field on Friday afternoon." Did Greene overwhelm them? Will McKay's final impression push him over the edge? And how did Wright's Saturday evening go in an elimination game against a daunting opponent? The latest on all three, below (click names for full in-depth profiles): Brendan McKay: LHP/1B, Louisville While cruising through his outing against Kentucky, McKay didn't flash the kind of velocity that catches your eye, but showed immense polish. He struck out nine and walked none, looking much like a guy who could go out and get it done on a big-league mound right now. McKay peppered the zone with good breaking balls, and is putting the finishing touches on a two-way collegiate career for the ages. Though he went 0-for-5 at the plate, his abilities at the plate as a lefty-hitting first baseman are well established. That would be less useful in the American League but there's a real possibility he could be a pinch-hitting option between starts, a la Madison Bumgarner. McKay's jump to the head of the pack, if the Callis report is accurate, comes after weeks of speculation that Wright was the favorite. Kyle Wright: RHP, Vanderbilt Wright had his work cut out for him, guiding his unranked Commodores against the nation's No. 1 team, Oregon State. He battled 6 2/3 innings, and while the numbers don't impress – he was charged with seven earned runs, three coming on a big homer in the third inning – he threw pitches with a ton of life while showing smooth and consistent mechanics. It's hard to hold the way he finished against him; Wright loaded the bases and walked in a run before being pulled at 122 pitches (two more would score afterward, adding to his ledger). He was laboring but answering the call as the ace of a team on the brink of elimination. There was plenty to like about the righty's outing, in which he struck out eight and threw some truly filthy sliders. Mike Berardino's comparison to a young Kevin Brown seems apt in many ways. Wright has everything you look for in a prospective frontline starting pitcher, and he could speed through the minors. As I wrote last week, his potential for rapid ascent would be a nice timeline fit for a team that appears to be at the front end of its contention window. Despite the recent steam for McKay, I still see Wright as the most likely pick. It's this simple: the Twins need fast-tracked pitching and he is pretty clearly the best college arm in the country. Historically, those are fairly safe picks. McKay, by the admission of his own coach at Louisville, may not be the best pitcher or hitter in college baseball (he places the two-way star "top three to five" in both categories). In contrasting the clear-cut top two collegiate talents in the nation, the choice seems fairly clear to me. But then there's Greene, who makes as strong a case to be taken first overall as any prep right-handed pitcher has in history. And he put it all on display during a Friday workout in Minneapolis late last week. Hunter Greene: RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS (Sherman Oaks, CA) As expected, and as usual, Greene wowed onlookers during a session at Target Field on Friday. He reportedly hit 101 MPH from the mound and put on show at the plate, launching four home runs. The 17-year-old oozes potential, and a level of upside that few draft prospects in recent history could match. It feels like, if the Twins pass on him, we will be doomed to a future of "what-ifs." We'll follow his progression closely, lamenting every fast promotion and extraordinary achievement. Of course, on the flip side, if they pass and Greene doesn't work out, the front office ultimately comes away looking really, really good. This kid has a set of skills and tools rarely seen on the diamond. He gave the Twins a final reminder of that on Friday. If they choose to go another direction, it's on them, for better or worse. OTHER POSSIBILITIES? There remains a distinct chance that Minnesota could pass on all three of the names above. If they're not enamored with McKay, Wright or Greene as a true No. 1 talent, then they could aim to strike a deal with someone slightly lower on the board to save pool money on one of their ensuing picks. Jeremy Nygaard explained how this might work in his latest edition of The Scouting Skinny, which went out to newsletter subscribers last week. Basically, we keep hearing that that the Twins have six players on their radar for the first pick, not just the three mentioned above. The idea is that by signing someone like MacKenzie Gore or Pavin Smith, who wouldn't normally be under consideration at the top, the Twins could sign that player below slot and then have more money available for bonuses at, say, No. 35 or No. 37. This was the approach Philadelphia took last year, signing No. 1 pick Mickey Moniak for about $3 million under slot and then luring their second pick, prep righty Kevin Gowdy, away from a UCLA commitment by offering almost double the slotted amount at No. 42. This turns our attention toward a subject we haven't yet broached in this primer: Minnesota has two more picks within the Top 40, and those also figure to be of enormous importance. It gets cumbersome to preview and break down those selections, because the number of realistic candidates goes from a handful to several dozen, but there is one name in particular that people around the Twins Cities will be following very closely. LOCAL ANGLE He is not in consideration to go first overall, but it sounds like the Twins would be more than happy to grab Burnsville's Sam Carlson if he makes it back to them at 35. This seems unlikely. The big right-hander ranks 15th on MLB.com's board and 21st on Baseball America's. He's in the conversation for best high school arm in the country, and reports suggest many teams are eyeing him in the first round. But Carlson has a scholarship from the University of Florida in his pocket, so money talks. For Minnesota to have a realistic shot at Carlson, it would require him slipping – probably due to signability concerns – and the Twins having extra cash in hand from cutting a deal at No. 1 to alleviate such concerns. Something to keep an eye on. LATEST PREDICTIONS Here's what the most recent mocks from major prospect publications are projecting for Monday: Baseball America Mock Draft 4.0 Twins #1 pick: Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt) Twins #35 pick: Brent Rooker, 1B (Mississippi State) Keith Law (ESPN) Mock Draft 3.0 Twins #1 pick: Brendan McKay, LHP/1B (Louisville) Bleacher Report Twins #1 pick: Brendan McKay, LHP/1B (Louisville) CBS Sports Twins #1 pick: Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt) Jeremy Nygaard/Twins Daily Twins #1 pick: Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt) Twins #35 pick: Blayne Enlow, RHP (LA prep) Twins #37 pick: Jacob Heatherly, LHP (AL prep) Twins #76 pick: Riley Adams, C (University of San DIego) Twins #106 pick: Michael Baumann, RHP (Jacksonville University) Twins #136 pick: Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP (University of Missouri) Twins #166 pick: Seth Lonsway, LHP (OH prep) Twins #196 pick: Griff McGarry, RHP (CA prep) Twins #226 pick: Dalton Guthrie, SS (University of Florida) Twins #256 pick: J.J. Schwarz, C (University of Florida) Twins #288 pick: Reed Rohlman, OF (Clemson University) MORE TWINS DAILY COVERAGE Check out Jeremy Nygaard's 10-round Twins mock draft to learn more about the players listed above. Previous Draft Profiles: Draft Profile: Hunter Greene, SP/SS by Nick Nelson Draft Profile: Kyle Wright, SP by Jeremy Nygaard Draft Profile: Brendan McKay, SP/1B by Cody Christie Draft Profile: MacKenzie Gore, LHP by Steve Lein Draft Profile: Royce Lewis, SS/OF by Nick Nelson Draft Profile: Pavin Smith, 1B by Tom Froemming Click here to view the article

Great article format. Love this. Nice work Tom!