Nick Nelson

Did Smith get fired for spending money or for spending money poorly? Speculation aside, he was green-lighted for an all-time record payroll the last time the Twins had legit championship aspirations. That is the pertinent fact here.

My point was that someone like May or Romero could be the addition to the top. And keeping the door open for them maintains roster/payroll flexibility. As I mentioned, you can always add during the season when you have a better idea of how things are shaping up.

I think some are missing the point of this post a little bit. To be clear, I'm not saying the Twins will spend $120M+, only that we shouldn't treat it as a given they won't. It seems like a lot of people are conditioned to think a certain way, or making assumptions based on how they've operated over the past 5 years while out of contention, or in the pre-Target Field days. The fact that people are pointing back to how the franchise spent in the early 2000s only reinforces why I made the point. And I'm certainly not saying the Twins SHOULDN'T add an impact starter, only that they COULD keep roughly the same staff and still take a meaningful step forward. Do the people saying things to the effect of "If they don't spend on a FA they'll end up with pitchers like Hughes and Nolasco in the rotation" realize the irony of their statements?

The World Series is over. The offseason is about to rev up. You can explore its many possibilities by ordering and immediately downloading your copy of the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. As we gear up for many weeks of in-depth Hot Stove coverage here on the site, I thought I'd address three pervasive myths I've seen floating around in Twins Territory. Let's set the record straight on these misleading talkers.On the surface, these suppositions may feel plausible, if not resoundingly true. But each of these three Twins offseason myths is driven by faulty reasoning, and here's why. MYTH #1: The Twins won't significantly increase payroll. It's understandable that this is the default position. The Twins franchise has a long history of spending less on the roster than many fans would hope or expect. Even our own Offseason Handbook fuels the fire on this myth, with John writing that 2018 payroll will likely top out at $110-115 million – he even considered that "optimistic." It's certainly possible this will be the case. But I urge you to keep a few things in mind: A ) There's a new front office in place. Granted, we've been given no reason to think Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to be handed a blank check, but the general belief is that Terry Ryan would often spend far less than he was able. Is that still going to be the case? Let's not forget that the first major move from this new leadership was a fairly aggressive free-agent spend (Jason Castro). B ) The Twins have a long way to go before they're even in the middle of the pack for spending. Levine acknowledged in his interview with Baseball Prospectus this summer that when it comes to payroll, the Twins are "not going to be in the top 10, and we're fine with that." But here's the thing: he can add quite a bit and still be nowhere near the top 10. Minnesota's Opening Day payroll this year ($108 million) ranked 22nd in the majors. The 15th-ranked team was Kansas City, at $140 million. Is there really any reason the Twins shouldn't be able to reach that level? Especially when you consider that... C ) They are competitive now. Know what happened the last time the Twins planned for a season with true championship aspirations? They set a franchise record for payroll, under Bill Smith, at $113 million. That was in 2011, when they were coming off their last playoff appearance. When accounting for market inflation, that same $113 million would check in over $120 million today – maybe well over. The Twins ranked ninth in payroll in 2011; this year, the ninth-ranked Nationals spent $167 million. So let's not just assume this team won't see a significant bump in spending, especially with a number of contracts set to come off the books following 2018. MYTH #2: The Twins need to add an impact starting pitcher. Sure, it'd be nice. And now that we've dispelled the first myth, it certainly feels accomplishable. But the Twins don't necessarily NEED to add a top-tier starter via free agency or trade in order to enter the 2018 season as legitimate playoff (and even World Series) contenders. They will likely be bringing back four pitchers who made 20-plus starts in 2017, and there's reason to believe it could be a very capable group. Ervin Santana: Coming off a career-year, has been a steady workhorse in three seasons with MN, posting a 3.47 ERA over 500 innings. Jose Berrios: Former top prospect found his comfort zone in the big leagues and posted a 14-8 record, 3.89 ERA at age 23. Could (should?) take another big step forward. Kyle Gibson: Finally looked in the second half like the version we've all been waiting for. Posted a 3.55 ERA with markedly more whiffs in August and September. Contrary to another popular myth, this wasn't just another typical fluctuation for the notoriously inconsistent hurler; he made several noticeable changes to drive the improvement. Adalberto Mejia: His first season as a major-league starter was a relative success. He has the build and the stuff to succeed. With better control he can become a reliable mid-rotation piece. Young pitchers often improve this facet in their second year, and Mejia has a history of throwing strikes in the minors (2.1 BB/9). I'm feeling somewhat bullish on this group, and the Twins will have numerous options on hand to fill the fifth spot. Their projected season-opening rotation at Rochester includes Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Zack Littell, Felix Jorge and Aaron Slegers, who could all be poised to contribute early on if not right away. At least a couple of them have top-of-rotation potential. As a placeholder until one of those prospects is ready, the Twins could roll out Trevor May as the fifth starter, give Tyler Duffey another shot, or a sign a lower-level free agent. And then, once the 2018 season is underway, the opportunity is always there to make in-season additions. MYTH #3: The Twins must add more padding to the outfield walls to protect Byron Buxton. I keep seeing this suggestion again and again, for some reason. It's not going to happen, nor should it. First of all, the Twins already bulked up the padding on Target Field's outfield fences, back in 2014. The "Covermaster" surface now in place is eight inches thick, built to absorb and disperse impact force. It cost "six figures" to install. At a point it becomes impractical to do much else. They're not going to cover the walls in pillows, or anything that significantly affects play (you can't have line drives flying into an ultra-soft surface and then just dropping onto the warning track). Look, we all recognize that Buxton's style of play entails certain hazards, and we were reminded of that in the final game of the season, where he suffered a cracked rib in a collision with the fence in New York. But that's part of the package. He'll never dial down the all-out effort and aggressiveness (we can only hope), so the best hope to avoid injuries is for Buxton to continually improve his situational awareness and not allow that wall (or another outfielder) to blindside him. He did seem to get better about that this year. But at the end of the day, there's just a certain risk you run (so to speak) when hurdling through the outfield with mythical speed. Download attachment: CTA-Banner (2).jpg Click here to view the article

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He does have a 3.71 FIP and 9.5 K/9 rate in 200 MLB innings... May has been quite unlucky with the injuries thus far but when he's been on the field, he has performed.

The Twins need to improve their pitching this offseason. That is their top priority, and arguably their only priority. While it's easy enough to say, 'Go sign and trade for a bunch of new arms,' there are roster realities that will make adding multiple guaranteed contracts on the staff a somewhat complicated proposition. Trevor May is one pitcher who will prove difficult to plan around.When I was in Ft. Myers in March for spring training, May was one of the best performers on the mound I had a chance to watch. I wasn't alone in my sentiment. There was significant buzz around the big right-hander, who had worked hard in the lead-up to camp after getting the go-ahead to prepare as a starter. He was in great shape. His pitches were buzzing. He was amped up and ready to go. That May's stuff was among the best in the organization was no secret, and he had it all working in the Grapefruit League. He was electric on the mound in what turned out to be his final appearance of 2017, facing an all-star laden Team USA squad in early March. His sterling performance against premium hitters represented a big step toward locking up a spot in the rotation. And then, just a couple days later, it was all over. Shockingly, May had suffered a torn ACL in the middle of that outing, despite reporting no issues postgame. He underwent Tommy John surgery on March 22nd, and then spent his summer rehabbing. TJ recovery can sometimes take more than a year, but the timetable is growing shorter as methods improve. These days, pitchers frequently return to the mound after 10 or 11 months. There's reason to believe May will be ready to roll around the start of spring training if not shortly thereafter. As he noted at the time, the 28-year-old has never had a remotely serious arm injury in the past. GM Thad Levine pointed out that the UCL tear was "an acute injury" and that the cumulative impact was minimal. In other words, May's elbow was otherwise quite healthy, improving his odds for a quicker recovery. May has been throwing for a while now and reported on Twitter that he was starting to touch the mid-80s already in early October, less than seven months removed from the surgery. If by the end of camp next year he's looking like he did this spring before going down, May could be a high-impact addition, either in the rotation or bullpen. But in either capacity, how do you account for him if you're in charge of constructing the team this winter? The rotation already figures to have four members more or less locked in: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia. If you sign or trade for a starter, suddenly May is crowded out of the picture, though he could obviously push someone like Gibson or Mejia for a job, or stand by as the ready reinforcement. Sending May back to the bullpen is a less appealing option, in my mind. He showed upside as a full-time reliever in 2016, striking out 60 in 43 innings, but was altogether inconsistent and deserves a real shot at starting anyway. Besides, the pen has its share of question marks as is – Ryan Pressly, Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz, JT Chargois, etc. Adding May would further cloud a situation already lacking much clarity. On the bright side, the Twins do have the luxury of taking their time, in a sense. There's nothing wrong with getting to Ft. Myers next February, allowing May to rev it up on the mound, and assessing from there. He has options left, so they'll even be able to start him in Rochester if they deem it necessary. But the front office's moves to improve the team in the coming months will need to factor in what they already have on hand, and May – more than most – is a difficult one to project with any kind of certainty. If he makes a full recovery and is ready to roll by Opening Day – and currently there's little reason to think this won't be the case – he should be part of the plan. Maybe a big part. Click here to view the article

MN's ranks in swinging strike %: 2013: 30th 2014: 29th 2015: 29th 2016: 29th 2017: 28th Regardless of what moves they make in the offseason, a majority of this year's staff will surely be returning and I don't think it's realistic to expect them to suddenly vault into the top half of the league.

Of course. And this clearly is an ongoing objective for the front office based on everything we've heard. But the Twins have a long way to go before their staff is even average at missing bats and it's not going to happen in one year, so for the time being, maintaining and building upon an elite defensive unit is critical.

Minnesota's 26-game improvement from 2016 to 2017 was driven largely by massive improvements in run prevention. The Twins allowed 101 fewer runs this year, and better pitching wasn't really the differentiator. In fact, the team's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) actually went UP, from 4.57 to 4.72. The strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates – they were all mostly static from one season to the next. What changed? The rate at which balls in play were converted into outs.In 2016, the Twins ranked 29th out of 30 MLB teams in Defensive Efficiency Rating. In 2017 they rocketed up to 12th. That's a remarkable jump. Sure, the pitching staff played a role in shaving off 11% of the runs allowed from 2016, but not a very big role. As mentioned above, the K, BB, and HR rates didn't really change. Per FanGraphs, the batted ball profiles – grounder and fly ball rates, ratio of soft/medium/hard contact – also remained virtually identical. The Twins hired a new pitching coach last week, and hopefully they'll target some impact arms this offseason. But what's truly essential is supporting those new and returning hurlers with the best defense possible. Fortunately, this roster already has a top-tier starting alignment locked in. The Twins can bring back all the starters from what was a terrific unit this year – arguably above-average at all but one or two spots. Byron Buxton is, of course, the central figure here. He was probably the most valuable defensive player in the game this year, and as long as he stays healthy at age 24 that should remain true. Those who preordered the Offseason Handbook received a special perk this weekend, when we sent out Parker Hageman's feature on Buxton's impact. You can get that, and another early preview coming later this week, by getting your preorder in now. Download attachment: CTA-Banner.jpg Flanked by Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, Buxton can lead the game's best defensive outfield. Jason Castro is a quality backstop. The right side of the infield shapes up nicely with Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer. Really the only question marks are at shortstop and third base, but Paul Molitor can help himself by rotating Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano through the DH spot frequently while plugging in Ehire Adrianza and Eduardo Escobar. Unless the Twins shake things up with a big trade, we already know how the starting nine will align in the field, more or less. But Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have opportunities this offseason to make upgrades on the periphery of the roster, and that's where I will be curious to see their approach. In particular, the answers to these three questions will be telling: 1) Will they bring back Robbie Grossman? The most patient hitter in baseball took a step backward after his exceptional first season with the Twins, but was still a relatively useful piece, splitting time between DH and the outfield corners while providing a steady – albeit unexplosive – offensive presence. Grossman's on-base skills fit nicely in a power-packed lineup, but it wouldn't be hard to find another fourth outfielder who can match his .741 OPS, and upgrading his glove would be be easy. When he's in the outfield, Grossman is a rare defensive liability for the Twins, lacking the range to track down anything outside his immediate vicinity. Rosario and Kepler are lined up to man the outfield corners, and both have proven vulnerable to left-handed pitching (especially Kepler), so it'd make sense to replace Grossman with a right-handed hitter who plays good defense. In the Offseason Handbook, you'll find a few names fitting that description. Then again, the arbitration-eligible Grossman will only cost around $2 million to bring back, and his .361 OBP ranked second on the team behind Mauer. 2) Do they trust Mitch Garver behind the plate? It would seem that Garver is ready to take over as Minnesota's backup catcher. He had a great year at Triple-A, earning Twins Minor League Player of the Year honors, and got his feet wet in the majors during the final weeks of the campaign. But do they trust his defense enough go with him as Jason Castro's standalone backup? This much is not clear. Molitor didn't seem to have a ton of faith in Garver behind the plate, giving him only four starts there and none after September 4th. Will the Twins bring back Chris Gimenez, or seek another glove-first option as Castro's caddy? If they do, what does that mean for Garver's future here? He turns 27 in January. 3) Did Ehire Adrianza show enough to get another shot? The Twins claimed Adrianza off waivers ahead of spring camp mainly because of his defensive rep. He played shortstop and he played it well; it wasn't clear Minnesota had a player with that capability on the roster. He ended up playing all over the field and getting a career-high 186 PAs this season. Like Grossman, Adrianza is eligible for his first turn at arbitration this offseason, and won't be expensive to retain (maybe around a million). The Twins need a strong defender they can use frequently on the left side of the infield. Did Adrianza do enough to convince them he's that guy? His defensive metrics were good, though not as strong as they have been in the past. To my eye, he was a bit sloppy at times and not quite the specialist that his reputation suggested. But the tools are clearly there and to me, bringing him back is an easy call, especially since he's the only speed threat on the bench as things currently stand. What are your concerns and questions around the Twins defense as we head into the offseason? Click here to view the article

Also, we're complaining about the Twins urging him not to rely on his straight 89 MPH fastball in the majors? Huh. Some people just refuse to believe there's any explanation other than coaching ineptitude for successful minor-leaguers who don't translate their numbers to the majors, even though it happens all the time in every organization. There's really no room for common ground when contending with that kind of unnuanced viewpoint. (I say this as someone who thought Slowey got a somewhat raw deal from the Twins.) This is more a discussion of talent/ability than past production. Do you actually think Santana is a better pitcher than Hill? Of course I don't think the Twins should be targeting an injury-prone starter in his late-30s. But they need to identify guys who can dominate the way Hill can. That's really the point here.

Lamet has pitched 1 season with the Padres and wasn't that great. He's not being suggested because of his numbers in San Diego. He's young, has good stuff and a 2.99 ERA in the minors. He's not a "legit 1/2 type" now, that's the point. He's never been a top prospect and wasn't spectacular as a rookie. But he has the underlying components to break out, IMO. The idea is to find those guys BEFORE they make that leap and thus not have to give up the farm. Folks, are we automatically dismissing every pitcher that comes out of the Padres system now? Because, you know, some guy named Kluber was fished out of the very same organization...

Hill over the past 2 years: 2.78 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 Santana over the past 2 years: 3.32 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 That looks to me like the pretty clear delineation between a #1 and #2. Santana has the advantage in durability (Hill and those pesky blisters), but when both healthy I can't imagine there's a person in the baseball world who wouldn't choose Hill to start a playoff game. It's possible. I wouldn't count on it. He had a solid year but he's a long way behind the the starters mentioned at the top of this article, no? Either way, as the teams that are still playing have proven, you need multiple horses atop the rotation. Because they're in desperate need of bats and you gotta pay to play. I'm not saying they'll be actively shopping him, but if the Twins came knocking with, say, Polanco and Kirilloff?

Clayton Kershaw. Dallas Keuchel. Rich Hill. Justin Verlander. These veteran studs, with their ace-type profiles and plentiful big-game experience, were tabbed by Houston and Los Angeles to start Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. Each played a major role in getting his team to the big stage. The Twins' deficiency in this area is the biggest reason it's hard to view them as serious contenders to make their own deep October run next year. What can they do about it?Minnesota has one starting pitcher who can credibly be placed in the same category as the four mentioned above, and in many ways it feels like a stretch to do so. Sure, Ervin Santana had some core numbers in 2017 that were on par with the league's top tier – namely, a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with 16 wins – but for various reasons, he just doesn't quite measure up. There's the track record. To his credit, Santana enjoyed a career year at age 34, but in 2,170 previous MLB innings he had a 4.09 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. There are the peripheral numbers. Santana was among the league's most homer-prone starters this season, with walk and strikeout rates that were closer to average than elite. The success was heavily aided by a career-low .247 BABIP. His 4.77 xFIP suggests the performance was not nearly as good as the results, and that we shouldn't expect the same going forward. And then there is the wear and tear. Santana's durability is to be admired – he has made 30-plus starts in each of the past seven seasons (excepting his suspension-shortened 2015). But all those innings take a toll. Erv threw 100-plus pitches in 17 starts this year, and threw 37% sliders overall. He'll turn 35 in December. There hasn't yet been a drop-off in pitch velocity or quality, but few arms can escape the ravages of time and attrition forever. For all these reasons, Santana looks like a poor bet to be the No. 1 starter that the Twins need in 2017 if they're aiming for a championship. So where can they find this most coveted of assets? If he's coming from within the organization, it'll still probably take at least a couple more years. So let's explore a few avenues for realistically adding an ace-caliber starter from the outside. FREE AGENCY There are three pitchers set to be on the open market who could slot above Santana in the Twins rotation: Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish. All three have the attributes to be a rotation-fronter for a true contender, and each has more or less filled that role within the past few years. Signing Arrieta, Lynn or Darvish will also require more than double the $54 million that Terry Ryan committed to Santana in 2014 when making him the highest-paid free agent in franchise history. So in a way, it's a little hard to envision. Or is it? There's a lot of payroll coming off the books over the next few years. In the 2018 Offseason Handbook (coming next week, make sure to preorder and get yours early!) we'll give you the low-down on these three free agents and 18 more, as well as a breakdown of payroll flexibility and how they all might fit financially. Download attachment: CTA-Banner.jpg TRADES Last winter, in the ultimately fruitless Brian Dozier trade talks, the Twins seemingly targeted the right kinds of arms in a loaded Dodgers system. While they probably won't revisit discussions with LA, this increasingly impressive scouting department undoubtedly has some other names from other organizations on the "Want" list. Are they willing to pony up? High-end pitchers, or prospects with that kind of potential, don't come cheap. Minnesota would surely be looking for a younger guy with multiple years of control, and that only ups the ante. The name that pops here is Chris Archer. One of the best pitchers in the game, he keeps getting mentioned as a candidate to be moved, though it's not clear why; he's 29 and signed very reasonably through 2021 with team options. I can't even imagine the package it would take to get him. Since established aces are exceedingly tough to pry away, the Twins would more likely need to identify someone who is on the verge of reaching that level. A tall task indeed. I'll just throw a name out there: Dinelson Lamet, of the Padres. The 25-year-old right-hander looked solid in his MLB debut this summer, averaging well over a strikeout per inning and featuring a 95 MPH heater. San Diego, perpetually one of the worst offensive teams in the majors, would LOVE to add some promising young bats. Are there other names out there that catch people's attention in the same way? Share in the comments. INTERNATIONAL We may see an unprecedented scenario play out over the next few months. By all accounts, Japanese superstar Shohei Otani fully intends to sign with an MLB team and head to the States. He's been called "Japan's Babe Ruth." Otani touches triple-digits and piles up whiffs with a nasty repertoire. Oh, and he's a good enough hitter that some legitimately believe he could DH on top of pitching. Two-way player or not, there's a decent chance the 23-year-old quickly becomes one of the top starters in the majors. And cost will not really be a factor in acquiring him. Per the new CBA, foreign players under the age of 25 are considered international amateurs and are thus subject to the bonus pool system. Otani could only sign a minor-league deal with a bonus of a few million tops. Many teams have already spent a majority of their allotted amounts. It bears noting that Minnesota is one of eight clubs that could offer a bonus of more than $1 million, though the Rangers and Yankees are also on that list, and probably more attractive destinations. I just don't see how the Twins make this happen. In fact, I really can't see Otani coming over this winter and forfeiting the $100M+ he'd be eligible to earn by waiting two more years. But, he says he's doing it, so we'll have to wait and see what happens. It's going to be an interesting offseason on all fronts. And with the World Series now officially underway, it's suddenly almost upon us. Click here to view the article

Last week, the Minnesota Twins announced that they would not be activating the contract option for Glen Perkins, making him a free agent. Matt Belisle will soon join him. At that point, the Twins will have a total of three major-league saves on their entire roster (one apiece for Trevor Hildenberger, Tyler Duffey and Gabriel Moya). If experience is at all a weighty factor for this team, then we have a pretty clear idea of what they'll be looking for on the relief market.The 2017 Twins season was, in some ways, a banner example of the closer label's fungibility. In the past, Minnesota has been guilty of vastly overrating the importance of ninth-inning experience, to its own detriment (*coughMATTCAPPScough*). But this past season, we saw Brandon Kintzler, a veteran with zero career MLB saves prior to overtaking the role midway through 2016, excel as an extremely reliable door-slammer. He converted 28 of 32 saves and made the All-Star team before being traded to Washington. Good reliever = fine closer. After Kintzler went to the Nationals, Belisle took over in the ninth. The 37-year-old had never in his career served as a regular closer. During the final two months, he converted nine of 11 saves. Good reliever = fine closer. These instances seem to confirm something most of us already knew: there's nothing supernatural about pitching in the ninth inning. And with this in mind, the urgency of adding a reliever with such experience during the offseason is lowered. The Twins have at least one player who could plausibly open the 2018 season as closer, with others in line to get a shot in the near future. Download attachment: CTA-Banner.jpg READY NOW? Trevor Hildenberger: Hildenberger was fantastic as a rookie in 2017, with his stellar mix of strikeouts and grounders proving extremely reliable. He rose to the occasion time and time again in big spots. He got both righties and lefties out. And he has plenty of experience closing in the minors. But he's also 26 with only 42 innings logged in the big leagues. This, too, is problematic: pigeonholing him in the ninth stops him from being available to Paul Molitor in those key mid-game high-leverage spots where Hildenberger was a godsend this year. I'm not sure you can make a strong case for anyone else internally being ready to take on the closer job now. But as soon as mid-season in 2018, several others could emerge as legit options. READY SOON? Tyler Duffey: The 2017 season was a frustrating one for Duffey, who flashed overpowering stuff at times and posted solid peripherals (3.72 FIP) but could never get into a prolonged groove in terms of results. It's important to remember, though, that he hadn't previously pitched out of the bullpen since 2013 and was in the Twins rotation mix all the way up until the end of spring camp. If he prepares for 2018 as a reliever, and comes back with an extra tick or two on his fastball to complement his power curve, he's certainly got the makings of a closer. He was a dominant one in college at Rice University. JT Chargois: Duffey's co-closer at Rice has been on the path to a late-inning role in the majors ever since being drafted, and looks to me like a closer in waiting. He has the pedigree and potency, no doubt. But he lost almost his entire 2017 campaign to an elbow injury, so he'll need to come back and prove himself effective before any kind of high-leverage assignment is on the table. Ryan Pressly: It was a weird year for Pressly. You look at so many elements of his game and see the profile of someone who could close. His fastball burns in at 96 with a complementary slider at 90. His 3.2 K/BB ratio, 1.16 WHIP, and 50% grounder rate all signaled a quality bullpen weapon. If he could translate his second-half performance (2.62 ERA, .582 opp OPS) over a full season he'd be a perfectly suitable closer. But he's gotten in his own way too often to be counted on. A sustained run of setup excellence in April and May next year could change the narrative. Gabriel Moya: Acquired for John Ryan Murphy in a late-July trade, Moya had a phenomenal season closing at Double-A, saving 24 games with a 0.77 ERA and 0.77 WHIP, plus a 13.4 K/9 rate. The stuff played in his first taste of the majors, producing a 12.4% swinging strike rate (tied with Pressly for highest in pen) and holding opponents to a .206 average, albeit in a small sample of seven appearances. He performed very well against righties. Moya is definitely a sleeper for the gig but won't be in the mix until midseason. Tyler Jay: The true sleeper in this discussion. Like Chargois, Jay endured a lost season in 2017, but now he's back in the Arizona Fall League and proving he's healthy. After dealing with shoulder and neck issues again this summer, there were rumblings he'd need thoracic outlet surgery, but has repeatedly tested negative for that condition. Like Chargois, he has the stuff and pedigree; it's just a matter of staying healthy and showing what he can do. FINDING A PLUG The six players listed above are realistic candidates to be good relievers, and as our earlier arithmetic suggests: Good reliever = fine closer. But no matter how much you want to downplay it, there is an added element when it comes to pitching in the ninth. There's unique pressure as a hurler faces the reality that small mistakes can turn a win into a loss very quickly. Any team, especially one with an offense like Minnesota's, can bounce back from a bullpen hiccup in the middle innings. When you're at the very end of the game? Not so much. Kintzler and Belisle converting a combined 86% of their save chances is an underrated factor in Minnesota's 2017 success, and the Twins need to try to replicate that efficacy in late lead protection. While neither Kintzler nor Belisle had history as a closer, or even a particularly dominant relief pitcher, they did have this arguably essential attribute: lots of experience in the big leagues. So if the Twins want to hold off on anointing one of the relatively inexperienced relievers as closer, it would make sense to find at least an interim veteran plug. Ideally, they'd do so without paying the premium for closer experience. Who on this year's market could be the next Kintzler? In our upcoming 2018 Offseason Handbook (preorder now!), we lay out the free agent reliever landscape. Wade Davis, of course, sits at the top of the pack, and is really the only bona fide "Proven Closer" in the group. Others like Seung-hwan Oh and Fernando Rodney have the experience but are somewhat shaky bets. These are some names that catch my eye as I survey what's going to be out there: Brandon Kintzler, RHP: If you're looking for a Brandon Kintzler type, you could always sign... Brandon Kintzler. The Twins will have an opportunity to re-sign the 33-year-old right-hander after sending him to Washington for the final two months of the season. He's familiar and well liked in the clubhouse. But they'd also be buying high on a guy coming off his best MLB season – also a season where his 4.9 K/9 rate ranked third-lowest out of 155 qualified relievers. Steve Cishek, RHP: Cishek has a very similar profile to Hildenberger. He's a right-handed sidearmer who gets lots of ground balls and strikeouts. He has been a very consistent performer over the course of his career, with an ERA+ of 109 or above in each of his seven seasons. Though he served exclusively in a setup role for the Mariners and Rays this year, the 31-year-old has plenty of closing experience with 121 saves and an 83% conversion rate in the big leagues. The distinguished track record will make him a pricey commodity. Jake McGee, LHP: There are many things to like about McGee. He's a strikeout pitcher with excellent control (four times as many K's as walks in his career). He's a left-hander who shuts down righties. He has experience in the ninth inning (44 saves), as well as in the playoffs (six postseason appearances). He's been durable and fairly reliable. It'd take a sizable multi-year deal to get him, but the 31-year-old could be a great veteran anchor in a young bullpen going forward. Luke Gregerson, RHP: Over the course of his career – spent with the Padres, A's and Astros – Gregerson has mostly been a fantastic reliever. But he's coming off his worst season, so it's possible he could be had at a relative discount. In the Offseason Handbook, we suggest Gregerson could be viewed as a "rich man's Belisle." He's got tons of experience (623 MLB appearances) and has a rep as a strong clubhouse guy, but he also has been much better all-around, and gets tons of strikeouts with a heavily deployed slider. Koji Uehara, RHP: It's entirely possible that Uehara decides to hang up the cleats. He turns 43 next April, and had the second half of his 2017 season ruined by knee and back issues. But if he wants to give it one more go, he'd be a welcome addition for the Twins on a one-year deal. When healthy, he's as reliable as they come, and was lights-out in the first half this year. He could hold down the closer role until one of the young guys emerges. What's your view of the closer situation as we head into the offseason? Are you comfortable with an internal option? Would you aim high for a name like Wade Davis? Or does one of the other free agents listed (or another) make more sense to you? 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The Twins Daily 2018 Offseason Handbook is now available for order and immediate download. You can claim your copy by clicking here. Name your price and download it right away to dig into its 63 pages of unparalleled offseason coverage. Read below for details about pricing and what's inside.What Is It? For nearly a decade, the TwinsCentric group has been producing the annual Offseason Handbook, an essential guide to the coming Hot Stove season for Minnesota Twins fans. This downloadable PDF features a ton of exclusive content previewing the offseason landscape as it pertains to your favorite team. * Click here to view last year's Offseason Handbook * We put you in the shoes of the Twins GM, providing all of the information you'll need to form your own vision for the offseason (or predict what the real guys in charge will do). Among the topics thoroughly covered inside this beautifully designed ebook: A deep dive on payroll and how much spending flexibility you'll haveFree agents at positions of need, and what they might costTrade targets, and how they could be acquiredArbitration eligible players and projected salariesBreakdowns of organizational depth at each positionFeatures from Twins Daily writersAnd more!Download attachment: CTA-Banner_NOW.jpg How Much Does it Cost? That's up to you. This is a donation-based product, so you can choose how much you'd like to pay. When you go to the order page, you will find an editable field for price. The recommended amount is $5. If you'd like to contribute more as a token of thanks for Twins Daily's year-round coverage, and to help the site sustain and grow, we are beyond grateful. If you're hesitant about paying, go ahead and order a copy with no donation. We don't mind! We'd rather get it into as many people's hands as possible, because we know Twins fans are going to love it. Have any other questions? Issues with your order? Please drop us a line at twinscentric@gmail.com and let us know. Click here to view the article

I didn't say he was a bust. But whatever question marks surrounded him a year ago have only been magnified. De Leon will turn 26 next season, hasn't even thrown 115 innings in a season, hasn't had a shred of success at the major-league level. If the Twins had traded Dozier for him straight-up, or with minimal added pieces (as plenty of people around here felt they should have), and things had played out in a similar fashion with both players, it would look TERRIBLE for the Twins and their new regime right now. They'd be getting skewered. This isn't even debatable.

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don't make. That old sports adage certainly seems to apply with regards to the first big test Derek Falvey and Thad Levine faced as heads of the reconstructed Twins front office. A look back at their savvy stubbornness, and how it paid off:In our blueprint for last year's Offseason Handbook, we suggested trading Brian Dozier to the Dodgers in exchange for young right-hander Jose De Leon and additional prospects. ** You can order the 2018 Offseason Handbook now (name your price) to ensure you get it ahead of its official release at the end of the postseason, with other special perks on the way as well. Preorders are only open for a limited time! ** The Twins, it turned out, were of a similar mind. As soon as the postseason ended, reports quickly arose that they were engaging the Dodgers over Dozier, with De Leon mentioned as a central piece. Based on media coverage, negotiations over the rest of the package turned into an extended saga, with little agreement over what those additional prospects might look like. For Levine, it was a high-stakes game of chicken. The longtime right-hand man of Jon Daniels in Texas, Levine was still arranging his office after landing his first gig as a GM, and here he was, going toe-to-toe with one of the game's most heralded execs in Andrew Friedman. And the player he was discussing giving up? Only the most popular and valuable one on the roster – one of the few marketable commodities on a club that just reached an all-time low. No pressure or anything. It would've been irresponsible not to explore the possibility. Dozier was coming off a likely career year and approaching the end of his contract. The Twins were rebuilding. De Leon was a hot prospect on the rise – the premier strikeout artist in all of the minors, aligning with a drastic need in Minnesota's system. But by all accounts, Levine took a hardline stance, refusing to accept anything less than a major haul in addition to De Leon. The thinking, I imagine, was that pitching prospects (especially those with recent injury history and unproven workload thresholds like JDL) are fickle assets, and you can't really afford to place all your chips on a single one. Good call. The Dodgers ultimately ran out of patience with the Twins and made a pivot, shipping De Leon to Tampa Bay straight-up in exchange for Logan Forsythe. I'm not sure anyone's regretting the deal at this point, but it certainly wasn't a slam dunk for either side. Forsythe took a huge step back from his solid 2016 campaign, hitting 14 fewer home runs with a 100-point drop in OPS. The Dodgers still won 104 games and are still heading to the big show but when you're in go-for-it mode, there's only one ultimate goal. I wonder if they'll wish they had the dangerous Dozier instead of Forsythe in the World Series, and next year. While the Dodgers didn't receive the major impact they initially sought, they're probably satisfied with the price they ended up paying. De Leon, sure enough, saw his first season in Tampa's organization ravaged by injuries, limiting him to 41 total innings and just one appearance for the Rays. It was more or less a lost year, casting further doubt on durability going forward. How would that have looked as the headlining return for Dozier, while he was powering Los Angeles to an incredible season? We'll probably never know what the best package Levine turned down was. But there were rumblings that the Twins were pushing for the likes of Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler. If so, it demonstrates astute evaluative chops from the GM and his staff. As we now know, Bellinger went on to have one of the great rookie campaigns in MLB history this year, slugging 39 home runs in 130 games, while Buehler returned from his Tommy John layoff in dominant fashion and even made a late-season debut for the Dodgers. Getting one of those prospects would have changed the conversation. But if indeed the offer was never more than De Leon plus scraps, then Minnesota pretty clearly made the right choice. Dozier stuck around and was a driving force in the Twins' reinvigorating turnaround, earning our 2017 team MVP honor. Coming off yet another strong campaign, and still a year from free agency, Dozier still carries significant trade value if the Twins choose to go that route, though that seems unlikely with the sudden flip to contention mode. For Levine and Falvey, stubbornness paid off. I hope they'll exercise the same keen judgment and high standards as the trade talks heat up once again in the coming weeks. Click here to view the article