Nick Nelson

Yeah, the Twins didn't really make an active decision to let those guys go so they weren't included on this list.

Trying to pretend like your word is your bond But until you do right, all you do will go wrong Now some might mistake this just for simple song And some don't know what they have 'til it's gone Incredibly, we are coming up on the 20-year anniversary of 1998's classic 'The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill.' The song quoted above, titled Lost Ones, was named by Rolling Stone as one of the 50 greatest hip-hop tracks of all time – justifiably so. It's a scornful blast on someone who left her behind (Wyclef Jean, probs). It'd be no surprise if that song, still relatively fresh back in the winter of 2002/03, was banging in the headphones of David Ortiz while he steamed about his release from Minnesota. He'd go on to make his former team pay for its mistake, and as we all know, he hardly suppressed his frustration with the way things went down over the years.Releasing Ortiz sticks out as the singular worst decision in an overall highly respectable career for Terry Ryan as Twins GM. At the time, he was maneuvering to make room on the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft. He ended up giving away a Hall of Fame player for nothing. Now, this is NOT meant to be yet another lamentation of a move we've all heard more than enough about. But the point is this: Oftentimes, front office execs will be judged more by the great players they let get away than the good ones they bring aboard. Entering their first full offseason at the helm, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been doing some 40-man shuffling of their own, parting ways with several players (some of them long-tenured members of the organization) in order to free up room for the Hot Stove Season ahead. Ortiz's still ghost lingers subtly, taking forms like Aaron Hicks and Anthony Swarzak. Will any of these new Lost Ones haunt the organization going forward? Let's examine each player who's been sent out, with a 1-5 score on the O.R.T.I.Z. (Odds of Regret due to Turnaround or Improvement... Zone) Scale, with Big Papi himself of course being an off-the-charts, beyond-a-5 case. Chris Gimenez (outrighted) To be honest, I thought there was a good chance Gimenez would be retained. He still might, I guess, but the Twins are letting him hit the market rather than bringing him back cheaply through arbitration. The 34-year-old was productive enough and genuinely seemed like an all-around asset – beloved in the clubhouse, sharer of knowledge, able to take the mound in a pinch. I wondered if the Twins trusted Mitch Garver's glove enough to give him the sole backup job, and that still remains to be seen, but with John Ryan Murphy gone they'll certainly be casting a net for other high-level options. As for Gimenez, what we saw was his ceiling. O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 1 Randy Rosario (claimed by Cubs) Rosario is one of those cases where the international development timelines can sting you. The Twins signed him young, at 16, all the way back in 2010 and consequently had to add him to the 40-man roster young. Circumstances dictated that the Twins basically needed to make a decision on him already at 23, and with so little experience above the high minors, they couldn't afford to wait him out anymore. The talent is there, and not hard to see, but he's too raw and uncertain to hold off a more usable piece. It wouldn't be surprising if he eventually became a late-inning weapon for Chicago. O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 3 Michael Tonkin (signed with Nippon Ham Fighters of NPB) The big flame-thrower got his chances in Minnesota. No one can deny him that. He made 141 appearances over three seasons and just never came close to replicating his mastery of Triple-A. Tonkin's two-year, $2.1 million deal in Japan is a wise move, and not just because he'll be earning twice what he'd expect here (and that's IF he made a 25-man roster). A guy with 97-MPH heat to go along with a 9.2 K/9 rate in the majors and decent enough control is going to flat-out dominate as a closer in that league. We've seen plenty of embattled big-leaguers raise their stock overseas and that could very well happen here. Maybe he'll even come back to Minnesota in a couple of years, though I suspect that bridge is burned. O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 2 Niko Goodrum (outrighted, signed with Tigers) Gardy influence? Goodrum was snapped up quickly by Detroit after the Twins dropped him, and there is zero doubt that the new Tigers manager (along with his partially reassembled staff from Minnesota) had a say in it. Ron Gardenhire saw him plenty as a youngster around camp prior to departing, and his new QA coach Joe Vavra has more recent experience. But the upside here is extremely minimal; Goodrum has a .712 career OPS in the minors and struck out in 10 of 18 appearances with the Twins. The good-not-great versatile glove doesn't make up for the 25-year-old's shortcomings at the plate. O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 1 Ryan O'Rourke (outrighted, signed with Orioles) I have little doubt that O'Rourke has a future as a quality MLB reliever. He has reliably decimated left-handed hitters everywhere he's pitched, including the majors, and there's no reason to think he won't continue doing so after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the end of April. He'll probably turn 30 (April 30th next year) before he pitches in the majors again, but likely has a lengthy career ahead of him in a game of increasingly specialized bullpens. One can argue that O'Rourke was worth keeping ahead of Buddy Boshers, but both are well behind the likes of Taylor Rogers and Gabriel Moya, and only one's healthy. O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 2 Nik Turley (claimed by Pirates) There's an enticing aura around Turley so it's not hard to see why the Pirates are taking a look at him. He last pitched with the Red Sox in 2016 before taking a detour through independent ball and then catching on with the Twins. During his time with Boston's Double-A affiliate, the big southpaw showed crazy stuff but was all over the place (48 K and 28 BB in 35 IP). Turley's mind-bending curveball was back on display during his time in Chattanooga and Rochester this summer, helping him procure a 2.05 ERA and 124-to-29 K/BB in 92 innings, but he looked utterly overmatched in 10 appearances with the Twins. I can see why they ran out of patience, but I do think there's something there. In an era where the curveball is becoming king, the 28-year-old has a future. I'm not going to say he's the best player on this list, but to me, he has the most O.R.T.I.Z. pain potential. O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 4 Daniel Palka (claimed by White Sox) In some ways, Palka resembles a young David Ortiz. He's a lefty slugger with immense power anyone can see, but he lacks a defensive position. Here's the thing, though: When the Twins released Ortiz at age 26 he had 58 homers and an .800 OPS in the big leagues. Palka, now 26, has yet to dominate Triple-A pitching. In today's MLB, Palka's profile is simply not a commodity – evidenced enough by Oswaldo Arcia (ALSO 26) posting a 1.000 OPS in 100 games for Arizona's Class-AAA affiliate without ever getting a call-up. To become a long-term asset out of this mold, you've got to basically hit at an Ortiz-like level (or close to it) and well, that just doesn't happen. The nothing-to-lose White Sox can afford to gamble on Palka figuring it out at the plate enough to harness his high-end pop, but the Twins have many more promising bats to vie for his vacant spot. O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 2 To summarize, none of these Lost Ones seem likely to be Superstars. But we haven't heard the last of any of them. Click here to view the article

Everyone around here knew it already, but now, Byron Buxton has the hardware and national recognition to firmly solidify his rep. Not only did he win a Gold Glove (which was never in doubt), he took home every other award you can think of: Platinum Glove, Overall Defensive Player of the Year, Fielding Bible, you name it. Fans, peers, analysts and metrics all seem to agree: Buxton is the most valuable defender in baseball. Maybe one of the best to come along in some time.It's safe to say nobody recognizes and appreciates Buxton's defensive impact more than Minnesota pitchers. Reaction shots of them exhaling with nervous chuckles, after spinning around to watch him take away extra-base hits in the outfield, became 2017 Twins canon. The pitching staff stands to benefit greatly from Buxton's prowess in center once again in 2018. And he will hopefully continue to be an asset out there for many years to come. But historical data suggests that his window for providing maximum value is fleeting. The Prime Directive It is generally accepted that a typical baseball player's "prime" falls somewhere in the age 25-29 range. Buxton, who turns 24 in December, is just entering that spectrum. But those prime production models tend to focus on offense. Download attachment: agingcurve.png The specific skill we're discussing here is defense, and there is mounting evidence that it has its own aging curve, which skews younger. Download attachment: defensecurve.png In Buck's particular case, that effect could be magnified. His ability to track down seemingly unreachable drives owes to virtually unparalleled speed. As Mike Petriello wrote this summer following a deep Statcast analysis: "We're adding more data points to what we were pretty sure we already knew: Speed peaks early." There is a good chance we are right now seeing the pinnacle of Buxton's impact in the outfield. At a certain point, his range will gradually begin to diminish. (Or maybe he'll become a little more discretionary about throwing his body into the wall.) Ideally, it'll be offset and then some by fulfillment of his potential at the plate. The upshot is that there's no reason to think the center fielder won't continue to play at this Herculean level for a couple more years, changing games on a regular basis by catching balls no one else can. Viewing things from this perspective brings about a number of offseason ripples, and might help the Twins take advantage of some market inefficiencies. For example: Fly ball pitchers are more appealing. All other things being equal, most front offices will – smartly – target ground ball pitchers, because they tend to be a safer profile. The Twins don't need to worry about this as much, so they can prioritize other strengths. The Twins have a great selling point for pitchers looking to recoup value. Last week we looked at some potential free-agent bargains that might be trying to boost their stock on one-year deals. The Twins can make a strong pitch to any of them by citing the positive influence Buxton's presence will have on their numbers. "Win now" urgency increases? The championship blueprint involves situating your efforts so everything aligns with the collective high point of your central building blocks. Bring in the right complementary pieces while that core group is peaking, and you have a World Series recipe. That's basically what we just saw the Astros do. It's quite possible that Buxton, the centerpiece of Minnesota's plan, will never deliver more all-around value than over these next one or two seasons while his greatest strength is at its strongest. Just another wrinkle to keep in mind as this offseason gets going, and as we look ahead to the coming years. Click here to view the article

I mean, that doesn't really tell the story of his impact and I'm sure you're aware of it if you followed the team this year. Colon coming in and posting a 4.09 ERA while averaging over 6 IP/start in July & August was crucial for getting this team going and moving them into a position that, by the time he stunk in September, it hardly mattered. He was also repeatedly credited by teammates and coaches for benefiting the young guys a great deal with his experience. That was, in part, kind of the impetus behind this article. I do foresee the Twins looking to replicate that in some way.

Yes, but if he's 35 he's not available on a one-year deal. No one's saying this is some bona fide ace pickup. It's an idea for a potential upgrade that maintains flexibility, which seems to be an objective for these guys.

I get that. And agree to an extent. But it's all so speculative that it really doesn't seem worth discussing on a message board. Also, Lackey has been hired by three championship-caliber teams and model organizations over the past four years.

It is just the home runs. You realize those were the entire reason for his inflated ERA right? Lackey had a 20% K-rate, a solid walk rate & WHIP, held opponents to a .250 avg. If age was such an inhibiting factor for him, why wouldn't any of those other numbers be in serious decline? His HR/FB rate was 3rd-highest in baseball, and nearly twice his career norm. That's a fluke, not a trend. He does not have "literally zero upside"; his upside is that he goes back to being the pitcher he has been for most of the past 5 years, a solid #2/3 with heaps of playoff experience.

Exactly this. I'm interested in evaluating what these guys can do on the field. If there is meaningful evidence that they have a negative impact as teammates, I'll account for that. But comments like "he divorced his wife while she had cancer 6 years ago" have no place in this analysis IMO. We get it. How many times are you going to say "hard pass" on this thread? You know who allowed the second-most HR in the AL between 2012 and 2013? Phil Hughes. He did OK in 2014, his first year with the Twins, right? You know who was the only pitcher to give up more? Ervin Santana. When a guy has a fluky year with HR/FB ratio, it should be viewed as an opportunity not a red flag. In the case of Lackey, you're looking at a one-year deal so the risk is minimal.

John Lackey has a 3.57 ERA, 4.02 FIP and 1.20 WHIP over the past five seasons. If he pitches up to that baseline, he's not a #5 starter on the Twins. He's a #2 or #3. If you don't like the guy because you think he's a dink, that's OK, but let's not act as though he hasn't been a durable, quality performer.

Definitely sounds like Lackey's teammates hate him http://m.mlb.com/news/article/257178080/john-lackey-has-earned-love-of-cubs-teammates/

Wow. Y'all really don't like John Lackey! He can't be that detrimental of a teammate given that every club he's been on in the past four years has been extremely successful. We're COMPLAINING about the Colon signing now?? Do you folks have extremely short memories or are you just attached to your narratives? Again, a "cooked" Lackey would have been ranked second on the Twins in K-rate and third in WHIP. Opponents hit .248 against him. The home runs were his only major issue and that can change a lot from year to year (e.g. Phil Hughes). I feel somewhat confident that Lackey is not going to have an 18.4 HR/FB rate again.

It's one of those things that can be difficult to quantify, but without a doubt, veteran presence matters in an MLB clubhouse. In 2015, anyone who spent time around the team will tell you that 39-year-old Torii Hunter played a larger role in the group's success than his numbers show. And this year, 44-year-old Bartolo Colon's impact after joining the roster in mid-August overshadowed his production on the field. Colon is back on the market and reportedly looking to give it another go next season. It's sadly time for the Twins to move on from Big Sexy, but there are two other well-traveled vets that look like potential fits.John Lackey "intends to pitch in 2018," according to Jon Heyman. He's 39 and has thrown almost 3,000 innings in the major leagues. When we last saw him on the mound, it wasn't pretty; the right-hander was roughed up in three relief appearances during the NLDS. And in general, it was a trying season for him, as he posted his worst ERA in five years while allowing a league-high 36 home runs. But outside of the long ball troubles, Lackey pitched fairly well. His 1.28 WHIP would've ranked third among Twins starters and his 20.4% K-rate would have ranked second. From 2013 through 2016, he posted a 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with an excellent record of durability while pitching for teams that made the postseason every year (Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs). He took home rings in 2013 and 2016. Lackey is a capable starter with tons of experience, and he's accustomed to winning. He'll also be surely be available on a one-year deal, leaving the front office with plenty of long-term flexibility if they were to sign him. The other name I'll be tracking is not a pitcher, but a hitter. Jayson Werth, 38, plans to keep playing and might look very nice on the Twins bench next season. Like Lackey, he's coming off an inauspicious campaign, having hit .226/.332/.393 in the final year of a fairly disastrous $126 million contract with the Nationals. He was limited to 70 games this year by a bone bruise in his left foot. Werth hasn't had much success lately in general with a sub par .724 OPS over his past three seasons. As a guy making $21 million and expected to serve as a regular in the outfield, Werth was a major liability. FanGraphs pegged him at -0.3 WAR in 2017. But what if he were making a fraction of that on a one-year deal, being used more sparingly and more to his strengths? Werth posted an .820 OPS and 10/9 K/BB ratio against left-handed pitchers this year, but made less than 20% of his plate appearances against them. In his career, he has hit .293/.393/.538 against southpaws. With the Twins, he could spend much of his time at DH while occasionally spelling Max Kepler or Eddie Rosario in the outfield corners against left-handers (though preferably not often as he'd be a huge step down defensively). As a young team looking to build upon its success and return to the postseason, the Twins will surely have a keen interest in players that fit the veteran leader prototype. As it happens, two of the most experienced players on the free agent market look like pretty solid fits, given their needs. I wouldn't be surprised to soon hear Minnesota connected to one, or both. Have you gotten your copy of the Offseason Handbook yet? You can read about these names and dozens of other Twins targets. Download yours now and dig in: Download attachment: CTA-Banner (2).jpg Click here to view the article

By what measure was his 2013 season not "great"? The upside is that you have a chance to capture an above-average starter while committing very little. Wasn't that pretty clearly explained? It's pretty easy to say "These guys are bad, why sign any of them!" but teams sign players like this every year and catch lightning in a bottle. The Twins, IMO, are in very good position to take such gambles for a couple reasons: 1) They offer an attractive environment for pitchers looking for that one-year make-good deal because of their contending status and excellent defense. 2) They have enough pitching depth that if they sign one or two of these kinds of guys and they don't work out, the rotation should still be OK. I'm sure people would've been saying the same type of stuff last year about Charlie Morton if he was listed as a buy-low target. How'd that work out for Houston? All I'm gonna say is that this kind of limiting mindset would cause you to miss out on opportunities. It's important to be objective and open-minded, not blinded by personal experience.

At 9:00 am on Monday, MLB free agency will officially be open for business. At that point, the Twins front office can embark upon its quest to improve the starting rotation via external additions. Let's take a look at some of the best potential bargains in this year's class.Sure, there are the big names: Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn. All will have very competitive markets, and will likely end up with nine-figure deals. One can argue that the smarter way to spend in free agency is targeting high-ceiling pitchers in buy-low opportunities. If you hit on one of these tickets, you can end up with a top-of-the-rotation starter; if you miss, you're not committed to anything beyond a one-year contract. Brett Anderson's name has become something of a running joke among the Twins Daily writers, because I have reliably mentioned him almost every offseason as a player the Twins should look into. In some ways, he's the prototype for the free agent pitching gambles we're discussing here – talented enough to be a high-caliber starter if healthy, but with enough question marks that no team will give him more than a make-good deal. He's most often a good example of the downside. As it happens, Anderson's out there again this offseason, but even I've lost hope for the oft-injured southpaw, who has thrown 60+ innings just once since 2011. Luckily, there are plenty of others in the same category offering far more realistic upside. These five names – drawn from the Offseason Handbook – are my favorites among this group. Chris Tillman, RHP (29): From 2013 through 2016, Tillman averaged 190 innings with a 3.91 ERA while pitching for Baltimore in the offense-packed AL East. His 2017 season was a total mess, yielding a 1-7 record and 7.84 ERA, so now Tillman will be looking to re-establish some value in search of a long-term deal next winter. He doesn't turn 30 until mid-April. As someone who allows a fair amount of contact, the right-hander could be swayed by the opportunity to pitch in front of an elite defensive unit that will help his numbers. Trevor Cahill, RHP (29): The Royals traded for Cahill ahead of the deadline with hopes he'd help get them over the hump, but the move fizzled horribly as he battled shoulder issues throughout the second half, making only three starts for KC. Prior to the trade, Cahill had been highly impressive as a starter for San Diego, averaging 10.6 K/9 while posting a 3.69 ERA and 3.40 FIP. If they can recapture that form, the Twins would have a nice rotation weapon, or else they could try him as a reliever (he was excellent in that capacity for the Cubs in 2016). Tyson Ross, RHP (30): Much like Matt Harvey and Phil Hughes, Ross's return this year from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery didn't go smoothly. He put up a 7.71 ERA in 12 appearances for Texas before being released in September. But between 2014 and 2015, he made 64 starts with a 3.03 ERA and 9.4 K/9 rate. He's definitely a talent worth betting on, and will likely need to settle for a minor-league contract. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP (30): Coming off a strong 2016 campaign with Philadelphia, Hellickson had a chance to hit free agency for the first time and score a sizable multi-year deal. Instead, he accepted a qualifying offer from the Phillies, taking a $17 million salary and hoping to springboard back into the market this winter. That... didn't happen. The righty endured the worst season of his career (5.43 in 30 starts) and now he'll likely be seeking a one-year deal to rebuild his stock. The Twins can offer a contending environment and a great defense, so the right offer probably gets it done. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP (33): Gulp. What am I doing here? Jimenez was one of the prime culprits in a horrendous Orioles rotation this year. He led baseball in earned runs allowed. Turning 34 in January, he owns a 6.13 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the past two seasons. It goes without saying there's major risk. But Jimenez still does have those occasional flashes of brilliance that make you wonder. He struck out 11 in an August start and 10 in a September start. Maybe a change of scenery and new pitching coach enables that dominant side to come out more often? It bears noting that Jimenez's last good year came in 2013 in Cleveland, when he posted a 3.30 ERA over 30 starts for Derek Falvey's Cleveland Indians. Which free agent starter names in the Offseason Handbook stand out to you? If you haven't gotten yours yet, make sure to order and download now so you'll have a handy resource in hand as the free agency frenzy gets underway. Download attachment: CTA-Banner (2).jpg Click here to view the article

Sure, and I'd be all for it. I just won't feel like the offseason is a failure if they don't do so. I think they have enough quality numbers. Though I do like the idea of swapping out Santana for a superior longer-term option, as outlined in the Handbook blueprint.

Not plus that pen, BECAUSE of that pen. They were 12th in the AL in SP ERA in 2015, when they won the World Series.

Did Smith get fired for spending money or for spending money poorly? Speculation aside, he was green-lighted for an all-time record payroll the last time the Twins had legit championship aspirations. That is the pertinent fact here.

My point was that someone like May or Romero could be the addition to the top. And keeping the door open for them maintains roster/payroll flexibility. As I mentioned, you can always add during the season when you have a better idea of how things are shaping up.

I think some are missing the point of this post a little bit. To be clear, I'm not saying the Twins will spend $120M+, only that we shouldn't treat it as a given they won't. It seems like a lot of people are conditioned to think a certain way, or making assumptions based on how they've operated over the past 5 years while out of contention, or in the pre-Target Field days. The fact that people are pointing back to how the franchise spent in the early 2000s only reinforces why I made the point. And I'm certainly not saying the Twins SHOULDN'T add an impact starter, only that they COULD keep roughly the same staff and still take a meaningful step forward. Do the people saying things to the effect of "If they don't spend on a FA they'll end up with pitchers like Hughes and Nolasco in the rotation" realize the irony of their statements?

The World Series is over. The offseason is about to rev up. You can explore its many possibilities by ordering and immediately downloading your copy of the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. As we gear up for many weeks of in-depth Hot Stove coverage here on the site, I thought I'd address three pervasive myths I've seen floating around in Twins Territory. Let's set the record straight on these misleading talkers.On the surface, these suppositions may feel plausible, if not resoundingly true. But each of these three Twins offseason myths is driven by faulty reasoning, and here's why. MYTH #1: The Twins won't significantly increase payroll. It's understandable that this is the default position. The Twins franchise has a long history of spending less on the roster than many fans would hope or expect. Even our own Offseason Handbook fuels the fire on this myth, with John writing that 2018 payroll will likely top out at $110-115 million – he even considered that "optimistic." It's certainly possible this will be the case. But I urge you to keep a few things in mind: A ) There's a new front office in place. Granted, we've been given no reason to think Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to be handed a blank check, but the general belief is that Terry Ryan would often spend far less than he was able. Is that still going to be the case? Let's not forget that the first major move from this new leadership was a fairly aggressive free-agent spend (Jason Castro). B ) The Twins have a long way to go before they're even in the middle of the pack for spending. Levine acknowledged in his interview with Baseball Prospectus this summer that when it comes to payroll, the Twins are "not going to be in the top 10, and we're fine with that." But here's the thing: he can add quite a bit and still be nowhere near the top 10. Minnesota's Opening Day payroll this year ($108 million) ranked 22nd in the majors. The 15th-ranked team was Kansas City, at $140 million. Is there really any reason the Twins shouldn't be able to reach that level? Especially when you consider that... C ) They are competitive now. Know what happened the last time the Twins planned for a season with true championship aspirations? They set a franchise record for payroll, under Bill Smith, at $113 million. That was in 2011, when they were coming off their last playoff appearance. When accounting for market inflation, that same $113 million would check in over $120 million today – maybe well over. The Twins ranked ninth in payroll in 2011; this year, the ninth-ranked Nationals spent $167 million. So let's not just assume this team won't see a significant bump in spending, especially with a number of contracts set to come off the books following 2018. MYTH #2: The Twins need to add an impact starting pitcher. Sure, it'd be nice. And now that we've dispelled the first myth, it certainly feels accomplishable. But the Twins don't necessarily NEED to add a top-tier starter via free agency or trade in order to enter the 2018 season as legitimate playoff (and even World Series) contenders. They will likely be bringing back four pitchers who made 20-plus starts in 2017, and there's reason to believe it could be a very capable group. Ervin Santana: Coming off a career-year, has been a steady workhorse in three seasons with MN, posting a 3.47 ERA over 500 innings. Jose Berrios: Former top prospect found his comfort zone in the big leagues and posted a 14-8 record, 3.89 ERA at age 23. Could (should?) take another big step forward. Kyle Gibson: Finally looked in the second half like the version we've all been waiting for. Posted a 3.55 ERA with markedly more whiffs in August and September. Contrary to another popular myth, this wasn't just another typical fluctuation for the notoriously inconsistent hurler; he made several noticeable changes to drive the improvement. Adalberto Mejia: His first season as a major-league starter was a relative success. He has the build and the stuff to succeed. With better control he can become a reliable mid-rotation piece. Young pitchers often improve this facet in their second year, and Mejia has a history of throwing strikes in the minors (2.1 BB/9). I'm feeling somewhat bullish on this group, and the Twins will have numerous options on hand to fill the fifth spot. Their projected season-opening rotation at Rochester includes Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Zack Littell, Felix Jorge and Aaron Slegers, who could all be poised to contribute early on if not right away. At least a couple of them have top-of-rotation potential. As a placeholder until one of those prospects is ready, the Twins could roll out Trevor May as the fifth starter, give Tyler Duffey another shot, or a sign a lower-level free agent. And then, once the 2018 season is underway, the opportunity is always there to make in-season additions. MYTH #3: The Twins must add more padding to the outfield walls to protect Byron Buxton. I keep seeing this suggestion again and again, for some reason. It's not going to happen, nor should it. First of all, the Twins already bulked up the padding on Target Field's outfield fences, back in 2014. The "Covermaster" surface now in place is eight inches thick, built to absorb and disperse impact force. It cost "six figures" to install. At a point it becomes impractical to do much else. They're not going to cover the walls in pillows, or anything that significantly affects play (you can't have line drives flying into an ultra-soft surface and then just dropping onto the warning track). Look, we all recognize that Buxton's style of play entails certain hazards, and we were reminded of that in the final game of the season, where he suffered a cracked rib in a collision with the fence in New York. But that's part of the package. He'll never dial down the all-out effort and aggressiveness (we can only hope), so the best hope to avoid injuries is for Buxton to continually improve his situational awareness and not allow that wall (or another outfielder) to blindside him. He did seem to get better about that this year. But at the end of the day, there's just a certain risk you run (so to speak) when hurdling through the outfield with mythical speed. Download attachment: CTA-Banner (2).jpg Click here to view the article