Nick Nelson

The hype is real for Hunter Greene. At age 17, he has already attained legendary status, gracing a Sports Illustrated cover with the magazine hailing him as the star baseball needs. Baseball's LeBron James or the new Babe Ruth? Those comparisons aren't made lightly. It would seem that Greene, a two-way phenom who throws 100 MPH on the mound and dominates at shortstop, is a no-brainer at No. 1 overall. But he's not. Far from it.Who Is He? We have been following Greene for a long time here on Twins Daily. Ever since the 2016 season ended and Minnesota officially claimed the top pick in this June's draft, he has fronted the list of candidates to become their selection. Many months later, he remains in the high esteem of scouts and analysts. Baseball America has him at the top of their board. So does MLB.com. The reasons are evident. As a pitcher, Greene has the makings of a generational stud. His fastball has been clocked at triple digits many times, and he routinely maintains high-90s velocity deep into games. What's more, he brings this heat with an easy motion that doesn't raise alarms about mechanical issues down the line. In his prep career with Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, CA, Greene posted a 1.62 ERA over 121 innings. As a senior he struck out 41 percent of the batters he faced. He belongs in the conversation for best high school right-hander ever. And then there is the other side of his game. Greene is also a smooth defensive shortstop, one who obviously has the arm to make every throw. He swings hard and generates a ton of power. There's a general belief that he could easily be an all-star as a position player, even if he doesn't stick at short. However, in that capacity Greene is more first-round pick material than first pick material. Here are some highlights via LA Daily News from his 2017 debut for Notre Dame, in which he blew several hitters away from the hill and ripped a grand slam at the plate: Greene has a commitment to UCLA but it's highly unlikely he'll honor it, unless things go awry and he falls out of the top three. Why The Twins Will Pick Him I mean, how do you pass this up? The Twins could desperately use an elite pitching prospect in their pipeline, and Greene has a chance to become THE elite pitching prospect very quickly. If he maintains his purported ability to work in the upper 90s with good command throughout entire starts, and he develops his secondary offerings at all, he can transform into an MLB rotation-fronter in fairly short order. You miss on that, and go with a safer collegiate option who proves to be merely good (or not even), and it's a mistake that haunts for many years to come. These are the stakes for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, just nine months into the job. They recognize this, and their scouts have been all over Greene every step of the way. He has been analyzed from every angle, by numerous sets of eyes. If the Twins, through their rigorous evaluations, agree with the widely held opinion that Greene is essentially a can't-miss – particularly with the fallback as a talented position player should pitching not work out – then they will take him. Why The Twins Will Not Pick Him Unless we're getting smokescreens, it would appear the Twins are in fact not reaching that conclusion. In mid-May, USA TODAY's Bob Nightengale tweeted that the Twins were "leaning toward passing on" Greene. Ten days later, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported this more firmly, "barring a late change." If true, it's not clear what would happen to reverse their mindset at this stage, other than someone else on the board getting hurt. Here's the thing: Greene is really, really risky. And with the aforementioned stakes at play, it may just be too much risk to handle at this pick. No right-handed prep pitcher has ever gone first overall, and there is a reason for it: they are really difficult to project from this stage. Kohl Stewart was considered the best high school hurler in the nation when the Twins took him fourth overall in 2013. His stuff never developed enough to dominate in the pros, however, and four years later he's completely off the prospect radar. The following year, Tyler Kolek – a Texas HS righty who, like Greene, was known for his eye-popping velocity as a teen – went second overall to Miami. He required Tommy John surgery at the age of 20, and is still now rehabbing. When he has pitched, the numbers haven't been good. Greene is on a higher plane than either, to be sure, but the cautionary tales still resonate. And like any high school player, he has question marks. Opinions differ on whether his secondary pitches are up to par. Commanding the zone at his level of competition is vastly different from doing so against professional hitters. And while he is well built physically, with relatively sound mechanics, you cannot help but wonder how throwing hundreds of 95-plus MPH pitches at such a young age is cumulatively affecting his arm. The Twins, and other organizations, haven't seen that arm in action since mid-April, when Greene was shut down for precautionary reasons. There's simply a lot more data available on guys like Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay. This new front office likes data. Then again, everyone likes triple-digit heat and seemingly endless potential. Will Greene's uniquely high ceiling rule out? Or have the Twins seen enough in their extensive examinations to scare them away? Reports suggest the latter, but we shall see how it plays out on Monday. Make sure to check out Jeremy Nygaard's 10-round Twins mock draft. He's been known to get a few right in the past. Previous Draft Profiles: Brendan McKay, SP/1B by Cody Christie Royce Lewis, SS/OF by Nick Nelson Pavin Smith, 1B by Tom Froemming Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins will select first in the MLB Draft next Monday, and right now, signs point to them choosing Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright. You'll be able to read an in-depth profile of Wright here from draft guru Jeremy Nygaard on Thursday, but for today let's jump forward and contemplate how the collegiate ace would fit in for a rebuilding Twins franchise.Obviously anything can change in the next week, but right now all indications point to Minnesota passing on heralded prep phenom Hunter Greene at No. 1 overall. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have undoubtedly received countless glowing scouting reports, and seen his unique greatness on display in person, but ultimately it appears the upside/risk balance is too heavily skewed for a pick that could well define their tenure. That leaves college stars Wright and Brendan McKay as the remaining members of the consensus top three. Everything I'm hearing leads me to believe the Twins are leaning away from McKay, a two-way threat with some questions on both sides. Wright is who Baseball America has the Twins taking in their latest mock. Ditto Keith Law of ESPN. And our guy Jeremy. The signs are pretty clear. The Twins have been all over the 6-foot-4 righty for many months and have watched him hit his stride leading up to the draft, including a nine-strikeout performance against Clemson in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday that saw him touching 95-96 MPH as late as the sixth inning. Wright is a big-time talent, and as a more defined commodity than Greene or McKay, he carries less relative risk. There is also this: If the Twins feel they are currently at the front end of their rebuild coming to fruition, Wright fits rather nicely into the timeline they have going. Jose Berrios has arrived, and shows no signs of wanting to go back. Adalberto Mejia is flashing very positive signs. Minnesota has the beginnings of a young stable to move forward with, but obviously they'll need plenty more. The organization's top two prospects are not far away. Fernando Romero is coming on at Chattanooga following an inconsistent start. He has allowed two earned runs with a 20-to-5 K/BB ratio in 19 innings over his past three turns. Meanwhile, Stephen Gonsalves has joined him in the Lookouts rotation after shoulder issues cost him the first six weeks. He lowered his ERA to 2.45 with five shutout frames in his fourth start Monday. Romero and Gonsalves both are 22. Wright, as a 21-year-old college product, would probably head straight to Single-A upon signing. If things play out the right way he could be reaching the majors very shortly after they do, if not simultaneously. For some context, here's what the timeline looks like if you get it right with a collegiate ace at the No. 1 pick: In June 6th, 2011, the Pirates took Gerrit Cole (UCLA) first overall. His major-league debut came two years and five days later, on June 11th, 2013. He was immediately very good. On June 9th, 2009, the Nationals took Stephen Strasburg (SDSU) first overall. His major-league debut came 364 days later, on June 8th, 2010. He was immediately very good. On June 7th, 2007, the Rays took David Price (Vanderbilt, just like Wright) first overall. His major-league debut came in September of 2008. He was – yep – immediately very good. Now, obviously, these are lofty examples but Wright is an advanced arm with all of the attributes you're looking for. If the Twins feel he has a shot to follow that precedent and rocket to the big leagues, it would be quite favorable in the scope of their big-picture contention efforts. Is he that guy? You can draw your own conclusions when Jeremy gives you the full breakdown later this week. In the meantime, check out the rest of our latest coverage previewing Minnesota's top pick next Monday: Jeremy's 10 Round Twins Mock Draft Profile: Brendan McKay, SP/1B by Cody Christie Draft Profile: Royce Lewis, SS/OF by Nick Nelson Draft Profile: Pavin Smith, 1B by Tom Froemming Click here to view the article

The Twins bullpen situation has turned catastrophic, and there's nothing to be gained by wringing hands over how we got here. These are the facts: Minnesota is above .500 and very much in the mix as we enter June, but the Twins won't likely hang around unless they do something to address the relief corps. That "something" doesn't need to be drastic nor detrimental to the big picture.The Twins aren't in any position to make an Andrew Miller-type splash, and would be ill-advised to dangle any of their better prospects – even a Chih-Wei Hu type – for relief help (insofar as any high-impact relievers are being made available this far from the deadline). In order to meaningfully improve their chances in the late innings, the front office might need to get creative. Sure, they can try someone like Alan Busenitz or Trevor Hildenberger, but you can't just count on green rookies with iffy scouting reports to come up and shut down the eighth inning. By the same token, newly promoted farmhands Alex Wimmers and Randy Rosario are more band aids than plugs. The following suggestions are aimed at creating a more dramatic short-term impact, without forfeiting anything of import. Move Phil Hughes to the Bullpen Hughes is currently on the disabled list but there have been indications he won't stay there too terribly long. When he returns, the Twins might be wise to bring him back in a relief role. There are multiple beneficial outcomes this route could achieve. His fastball has been humming in at the lowest velocity of his career, and getting pounded as a result. It's possible Hughes could add a few ticks in shorter stints. Of course, he's had tremendous success out of the bullpen before, serving as Mariano Rivera's top setup man when the Yankees won the World Series in 2009. Hughes' numbers that season: 86 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 96/28 K/BB. He isn't likely to regain that level of superior efficacy, especially not right away, but maybe Hughes will surprise us. He has the command and poise that so many other Twins relievers are lacking, so even a slight uptick in heat – and perhaps a reduced reliance on his lesser offerings – could make a big difference. Swap Tyler Duffey and Brandon Kintzler This isn't so much a denouncement of what either right-hander has done in his current role – they've been the bullpen's two best weapons – as it is an assertion they may be best suited for a reversal. Kintzler has done an admirable job in the ninth, but always struck me as a guy better equipped for the middle innings. His penchant for inducing ground balls on command would make him an excellent fireman, called upon in a tough spot with runners on base. He has also proven fairly durable, and could likely handle multiple innings on a frequent basis. Meanwhile, Duffey is much more of a prototypical closer, with his bat-missing stuff, and has experience in the role from his collegiate days at Rice University. Call up Fernando Romero Minnesota's legit relief prospects can't seem to get healthy. Nick Burdi is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. JT Chargois went on the disabled list in April with an elbow impingement and still hasn't returned. Tyler Jay missed the first seven weeks with a shoulder injury, came back a week ago, made two appearances and then landed back on the DL. I'm starting to lose hope that any of these guys will be available to the Twins at any point this year. That's a huge problem because they are THE minor-league arms that could actually bring game-changing shutdown ability to the table. If the Twins want to find that now, they may need to consider calling up Romero from Double-A. Twins Daily's No. 1 prospect has gotten on a roll in Chattanooga lately, firing 12 scoreless innings over his past two starts, and as someone who works in the mid-90s as a starter he could really dial it up in short stints. The additional benefit is that this might help manage the 22-year-old's workload; he's already more than halfway to last season's total of 90 innings. The downside is that it would essentially remove him as a potential rotation reinforcement, unless the coaching staff wanted to stretch him out after he arrives. (Wouldn't be the first time.) Mine for Spare Parts in Other Organizations While we've ruled out giving up a prospect of Wilson Ramos' or even Hu's caliber, the Twins might be able to inherit a project that some other organization is ready to give up on. Maybe there is a fifth/sixth starter out there that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view as a particularly good candidate for a role switch. Or perhaps there is a Michael Tonkin or Ryan Pressly type, with big stuff and disappointing results, who they believe they can turn around with a specific fix. The cost of such an acquisition would be negligible. It would be a good opportunity for the new regime, especially Falvey with his reputation as an innovative pitching mind, to flex some muscle. What are your creative fixes for Minnesota's wayward bullpen? Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins will have their choice of every amateur player in the nation when they pick first in the MLB Draft in two weeks. Most attention has swirled around three names: collegiate stars Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright, and California high schooler Hunter Greene. But there's another prep talent from the Golden State whose name needs to be mentioned in the discussion at 1:1. Royce Lewis offers big speed and might be the best high school hitter in the country. He would be a justifiable top pick under one condition.Who Is He? Hailing from JSerra Catholic High School in San Juan Capistrano, CA, Lewis is a lean and athletic specimen at 6-foot-2 and 190 lbs. He played third base as an underclassman before sliding to shortstop last summer to replace a departing senior. His ability to stick there will define his ceiling, because at short his offensive tool set is beyond tantalizing. Baseball America has him ranked as the fifth-best draft prospect but calls him "arguably the best position player prospect in this year’s class," citing a "unique combination of explosive tools, top-of-the-scale makeup and up-the-middle defensive profile." A righty swinger, the 17-year-old has an advanced feel for hitting and generates a ton of bat speed. You can see some footage of his smooth swing in action below, courtesy of Prospect Pipeline: Last year the Los Angeles Times named Lewis high school player of the year, ahead of Greene mind you, after he captured a second straight Trinity League MVP award by batting .429 as a junior. Analysts envision a 20-plus home run guy after he matures. While the power potential is enticing, the speed is already there. Most scouts peg Lewis around 70 on the 20-80 scale in this category, and with his superior first-step quickness he looks like a guy who will steal a ton of bases as a pro. He is committed to play collegiately at UC Irvine, but obviously that could change with the right offer at the right spot. Why The Twins Will Pick Him Lewis hasn't gotten a ton of national steam as a contender to go No. 1, but he's been connected to the Twins by multiple reports. To be sure, Minnesota's front office is keeping a close eye on him. Of course, the last high school infielder to be taken first overall was Carlos Correa, who developed into a franchise player for Houston within three years of his selection in 2012. There aren't many player types more valuable than a shortstop who can excel both offensive and defensively. Lewis has the characteristics of a guy that'll do both. A recent report from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports suggests the Twins are leaning toward passing on Greene with their top pick. The two college players under consideration both have their warts. Brendan McKay's floor is more appealing than his ceiling, whether as a pitcher or first baseman, and that's never ideal at the highest draft slot. Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright is also seen as a "safer" choice, but it's not clear he has that realistic ace upside that would make him an easy choice. If the Twins firmly believe Lewis will stick at short – and that's a big if, with opinions varying based on the source – he may offer more assurance than anyone else in the mix. Why The Twins Will Not Pick Him Yes, Correa was a big success story. But the three prep shortstops preceding him as first overall picks present cautionary tales. In 2008, the Rays selected Tim Beckham. He never evolved past being a decent hitter in the minors and eventually moved off short; now, he's a mediocre second baseman for Tampa. In 2005, the Diamondbacks selected Justin Upton. He moved to the outfield as soon as he joined the pro ranks, and while his offensive performance in 11 big-league seasons would be spectacular for a shortstop, he's merely been good as a corner outfielder. The prior year, Matt Bush went No. 1 to San Diego. Off-the-field issues have consumed much of his career, but he didn't last long as a shortstop or even a position player, switching to the mound after struggling mightily at the plate for three years. Uncertainty looms large when dealing with teenage ballplayers, and with their first top No. 1 pick in 16 years, the stakes may be too high for the Twins to gamble on Lewis despite his lofty ceiling. The same ambiguity that has evidently soured Minnesota on Greene is in play with Lewis, who lacks the pedigree of No. 1 shortstops like Correa and Alex Rodriguez that panned out successfully. Click here to view the article

On Monday, the Minnesota Twins endured their worst loss of the year, melting down after Ervin Santana left with a six-run lead on the way to an embarrassing 16-8 loss against Houston. Still, they are 26-21, in first place, and miles ahead of their pace from a year ago. Let's run through some of the latest noteworthy trends and attention-grabbing tidbits – both good and bad.Bullpen Blowout Yep, that was a spectacular implosion from the Twins relief unit in front of the home crowd. Ryan Pressly, Craig Breslow, Matt Belisle and one-day call-up Drew Rucinski combined to remarkably allow 14 runs – all earned – on 13 hits and three walks while recording six outs. It came one day after a costly blown save from Brandon Kintzler. Pressly, initially tabbed as the club's top setup man out of spring training, opened the floodgates by entering in the eighth inning, up 8-2, and allowing five of six batters to reach. He's been a perplexing case this season. His elite velocity has been giving batters fits, as the righty owns a 31.8 percent K-rate that towers over his 18.3 percent career mark. At times he looks completely unhittable, including the stretch leading up to Monday's disaster. Over his previous five appearances, he allowed two knocks over 6 1/3 innings with 12(!) strikeouts. But on numerous occasions this season he has completely unraveled, and the latest is tough to forgive. I think Pressly has at least one option left, and perhaps a demotion or DL stint is in order. But at least there is enough there to be worth keeping around. I'm not sure I can say the same for Belisle. There have been no redeeming qualities in the veteran's performance. He was a contact-prone pitcher who relied on pinpoint command to get by, and now that's gone amiss. Through two months he has issued 13 walks, putting him on pace to more than double his career high as a reliever. In fact, his 15.5 percent BB rate ranks as one of the highest in the league. Belisle was either hurting or lacking Paul Molitor's trust over the two-week stretch between May 12th and 26th, during which he made only one appearance. In three outings since re-entering the fold, he has allowed two homers. It's time to move on, but to what? Searching For Relief They've made many good decisions since taking over, but the biggest blunder committed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine as heads of the front office was their approach with the bullpen. Now, the team is hurting for it. Minnesota's sole major-league signing to address the unit, Belisle has ruled himself out as a reliable option in the late innings. Now, the Twins need to find a superior option to replace him. While they have some candidates in the minors worth trying out, there's no one that can be thrown straight into a setup role with any kind of expectation. For a more substantive fix, Falvey and Levine must look to the trade market, meaning they'll need to pay in talent rather than money. One wonders how quickly a move could come given the increasingly dire state of affairs. On one hand, it's tougher to find sellers this early with fewer teams feeling out of contention. On the other hand, if you're going to give up a prospect for an impending free agent, you might as well maximize the return. With Nick Burdi gone for the year, JT Chargois stuck in injury limbo, and Glen Perkins a poor bet to return and make an impact, the Twins can't afford to count on internal reinforcements to bail out this battered bullpen. They'll need to look outside. Santana's Stolen Spotlight The painful ending of Monday's game took away the headline from Ervin Santana, who should have cruised to his eighth victory by holding a potent Astros offense to two runs over seven innings (one of those runs owed to a head-scratching defensive gaffe by Eddie Rosario). Dating back to the start of last year, Santana has a 2.90 ERA over 258 1/3 innings. He continues to defy luck on batted balls in astonishing fashion. From Batting Cleanup to Clean Out Your Stuff Eleven days ago, Kennys Vargas enjoyed perhaps his biggest moment in a Twins uniform, clutching victory from the jaws of defeat with a game-tying two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth against Kansas City. He followed by batting .429 over six games, lifting his OPS to .837 on the season. On Sunday, he was filling Miguel Sano's customary spot in the starting lineup, sandwiched between Joe Mauer and Max Kepler. Then, he went 0-for-8 in a 15-inning affair, and found himself optioned to the minors following the game. Life comes at you fast, huh? It's an unfortunate break for Vargas, the victim of circumstance as the Twins needed extra arms having gone through nine in the game. But his perceived expendability speaks to the thin margin for error his profile entails. Vargas offers minimal defensive value and doesn't run well, so he needs to be carried by his power and patience combo. The former has been on display but he has fallen back into an old habit of chasing too often outside the zone, resulting in just three walks in 93 plate appearances. While the demotion surely had more to do with the roster crunch than his performance, the Twins are surely looking for Vargas to demonstrate better strike zone control in Rochester. More May Magic For Mauer The month of May has almost always treated Joe Mauer well, most notably in his MVP 2009 season when he put up a ridiculous .414/.500/.838 line with 11 homers. Now, he's wrapping up another great one: with June two days away, Mauer's line for the month sits at .351/.451/.545. He has gone hitless in a start only once since the end of April. If he finishes strong in the next couple of days, Mauer could complete a month with a four-digit OPS for the first time since 2013, when he put up a 1.026 mark in – you guessed it – May. His strong showing over the past four weeks comes on the heels of a terrible April, and carries several indicators that the first baseman is on top of his game. He's back to drawing walks (14.3 percent BB rate) and spraying liners to all fields. Say what you will about Mauer, but there's no denying this: the lineup is far more dangerous when he's going good. Lately he's looked like the vintage version and while time has told us that can be fleeting, I'll enjoy it as long as it lasts. Click here to view the article

He's at 93.27, which pales in comparison to Sano's 99.9 but does rank 15th in MLB. If you haven't yet, I recommend tooling around with the leaderboards and profile pages on MLB.com. They do a really good job of making the Statcast stuff prominent and easy to find.

We are now more than seven weeks into the MLB season and the Minnesota Twins are in first place at 24-18. Who would have guessed? Taking a deeper dive, let's break down some of the craziest and most jarring individual stats from Twins players thus far as we near the end of May.1) Joe Mauer's GB/FB ratio: 1.25 Mauer has changed significantly as a hitter over the years, and there aren't many traits that have remained completely consistent over the course of his career. This one has: he has always hit the ball on the ground far, far more often than in the air. He has a lifetime 2-to-1 ratio and hasn't had a fly ball rate above 25 percent since his MVP season in 2009. This year, it stands at 34.2 percent and is nearly even with his career-low grounder rate (42.7 percent). What does it mean? Well, theoretically Mauer should be in line for more extra-base hits and homers, though up to this point many of his liners have been falling short of the wall and finding gloves. His HR/FB ratio, at 5.1 percent, is due for some upward movement. Don't be surprised to see a mid-summer surge. 2) Miguel Sano's batting average: .310 This is nuts. Sano is striking out at a 35 percent rate, fourth-highest in baseball, and he is hitting well above .300. No one else in the top 10 for K-rate is batting over .270, and four are below the .200 mark. Last year, nobody in the top 10 finished with an average over .253. There is a reason for this: it's really hard to hit for a decent average when you're failing to put the ball in play so often. Sano has been able to do so with a .479 BABIP that – somehow – doesn't seem all that fluky. He is absolutely crushing the ball every time he makes contact. One of my favorite writers, Joe Posnanski, had a great piece over the weekend on Sano's astonishing superiority to the rest of the league in average exit velocity. On Monday night, the slugger put the ball in play four times and each one came off his bat at more than 100 MPH. It's quite the show. 3) Jorge Polanco's UZR/150: 9.5 It should go without saying that the small sample size disclaimer applies to all of these snapshot stats, and that's especially true here. Ultimate Zone Rating is considered one of the better defensive metrics, but its accuracy can be questionable even in large samples. Over less than two months, it can be almost meaningless. But still. Polanco as everyday shortstop has a positive UZR thus far (0.9) and the UZR/150 stat, which extrapolates for 150 games to provide a rough full-season projection, has him at 9.5 runs above average as we cross the schedule's quarter-point. Last year, nine MLB shortstops finished with a higher rating. Polanco, as a rookie for the Twins, rated at -10.9 in 406 innings with a UZR/150 of -32.3. I'd be quicker to dismiss this if the eye test didn't so strongly back it up. He's been very solid out there. 4) Robbie Grossman's strikeout rate: 16.0% Ever the patient specimen, Grossman has always been able to take a walk, but in the past his penchant for passing on pitches has resulted in plentiful punchouts. He entered this season with a 25 percent career K-rate, and even in his breakout 2016 campaign he struck out almost twice for every walk. If his current 16 percent rate were to hold, it would be Grossman's lowest ever – even in the minors. Meanwhile, he's drawing more free passes than ever. The 27-year-old is proving to be an extremely tough out, and an underrated component of Minnesota's offensive attack. 5) Ervin Santana's batting average against: .134 Entering Tuesday's game with a .144 batting average on balls in play, it sure looked like Santana was due for some regression, especially against a ticked off Baltimore lineup that looked to be a poor matchup with its top-tier power. Nah. Erv went out and tossed a two-hit shutout. Twenty-three batters put the ball in play against him and 21 were put out. His .134 OBA through 10 starts is absurd. Here's some perspective: Santana now has 70 innings in the books. Last year, among all pitchers – starters and relievers – with 70-plus innings, Andrew Miller led all of baseball with a .159 average against. Santana is on track for his lowest strikeout rate since 2006, and his highest walk rate ever. And he might start the All Star Game. What. The. Hell. Click here to view the article

Over the six-year period from 2011 through 2016, during which the Twins won at a miserable .419 clip and finished last in the division four times, here's how many times a starting pitcher under the age of 27 threw 100-plus innings with a better than average ERA: one. Scott Diamond, in 2012, posted a fluky 3.54 ERA over 27 starts at age 25. He fizzled out after one more big-league season and is now pitching in Korea.Minnesota rotations of the last half-decade have featured a couple of impressive veteran campaigns and few other positives. For an organization with such emphatic focus on acquiring and developing young arms to receive not one convincing standout season from a youthful starter over such a span is damning. It also tells you all you need to know about the club's perpetual run prevention problems. In this light, what we've seen from Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia over the past week has been borderline revelatory. It's important to not get carried away on the basis of three starts, but there's plenty of legitimate reason for encouragement. Obviously, Berrios has been nothing short of incredible in two starts since rejoining the team. He has gone 7.2 in both turns, and the only run scored against him came on a wild pitch. Opponents have not been able to muster anything against his blazing heater and bendy breaking balls. This is the player we expected based on Berrios' mastery of the minors and truly special pitch arsenal. He obviously won't sustain an ERA below one, and he may not ultimately pan out as a true No. 1 type, but Berrios is clearly becoming more comfortable and doesn't turn 23 for a few more days. After generating some doubt with a disastrous debut in 2016, the Puerto Rican righty is regaining his status as a rotation building block that the Twins sorely need. He may be joined by Mejia, who picked up his first big-league victory in the second half of Sunday's double-header with a strong effort against the Royals. The southpaw had a couple of pitches tail into the sweet spot of Salvador Perez's righty bat and leave the yard, but was otherwise exceptional, cruising through seven innings on 89 pitches while throwing 67 percent strikes. Mejia doesn't have the lofty ceiling of Berrios, but seems to have a pretty high floor, which might have factored into the Twins surprisingly handing him a rotation spot out of camp. The left-hander's erratic April audition in the rotation was quite uncharacteristic, and on Sunday he looked much more like the pitcher his numbers advertise. The guy with a 1.21 WHIP and 86-to-19 K/BB in 93 innings at Triple-A. If he's throwing his mid-90s fastball and mid-80s slider for strikes, and getting anything from his changeup, Mejia has a reliable formula for success. He executed the plan on Sunday, as he did in four starts for Rochester during his demotion. He turns 24 next month. Pitching is the currency of baseball – more specifically, young and controllable pitching. The Twins have been bankrupt in this area for entirely too long, leading to the destitute state that triggered a front office overhaul. But Berrios and Mejia are harbingers of a shifting tide, and on another note of optimism, Twins Daily's No. 2 prospect Stephen Gonsalves finally made his season debut at Chattanooga on Saturday, tossing four solid innings while easing back into action. Gonsalves missed the first six weeks rehabbing a sore shoulder, but all signs point toward him being back at full strength. If he picks up where he left off with the Lookouts last year (8-1 with a 1.82 ERA following a June promotion) he'll quickly be in the mix as an option for the Twins. Same goes for his Double-A rotation-mate and fellow 22-year-old Fernando Romero, who has been inconsistent but is most importantly healthy. He possesses the ability to get on a roll at any time, and is already on the 40-man roster. It's been a long time since the Twins have had such volume of available or tangibly close good young arms. And given the state of their rotation, the timing couldn't be better. Mejia's redemptive performance on Sunday followed a deflating one from Phil Hughes, who lasted only four innings while coughing up five runs on three homers. It was his third straight crummy start, and afterward the veteran landed on the disabled list with shoulder discomfort. He'd been throwing with the lowest velocity of his career and allowing loud contact at an extraordinary rate, so at this stage there's no evident beneficial impact from offseason shoulder surgery. In fact, Hughes spoke after the game of a "dead feeling" very similar to the symptoms that led to his thoracic outlet syndrome diagnosis. Quite troubling. Fortunately, the budding emergence of Berrios and Mejia enables the Twins to give Hughes a break without worrying too much. It also lessens the urgency of a successful return for Kyle Gibson on Monday night, though that would certainly help. Click here to view the article

Dozier drove in 99 runs last year and had an .856 OPS with RISP. What are you people talking about

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v235274983/balmin-dozier-hits-a-walkoff-tworun-homer-in-10th http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/70087564/v249094283/detmin-doziers-threerun-homer-wins-it-in-the-9th

No one’s denying that Kintzler has been very effective in the role up to this point. But I stand by my reservations about his poor fit there going forward. 5.3 K/9. .255 BABIP. 6.3% HR/FB. 86% LOB. Those numbers aren’t going to hold up. The things you’re saying about coming in with a clean inning, and requiring multiple hits in succession to score runs, are true for any reliever. I just believe that with all the contact allowed he’s more susceptible than most to giving up a run or two, even on a good day.

I have some bad news. You probably already know it, at least in the back of your mind. The success of the Minnesota Twins up to this point is not sustainable. At least, not in its current form. They are playing better, without question, but probably not well enough to stay above .500 or near the top of the division. The good news, though, is that their play could easily improve to a point where winning baseball over the balance of the summer is perfectly plausible.As Rotoworld’s Matthew Pouliot pointed out on Twitter, the Twins have the fourth-best record in the American League despite ranking 12th in runs allowed per game and dead last in FIP. By Pythagorean W/L, their expected record would be below .500 at 17-18. Outside of newcomer Jose Berrios, the only starters with an ERA south of five are Ervin Santana and Hector Santiago. The bullpen had the makings of a ticking time bomb, and we’ve already seen some hiccups. On the other end, Miguel Sano has been their only truly outstanding hitter. To this point, almost any other regular has been disappointing in some sense. Reviewing Minnesota’s roster and its performance through mid-May, this doesn’t look like a contender. A far cry from the 100-loss abomination in 2016, of course, but not a team that’s likely to hang with the big boys through September. That could change. While present trends portend it, a drop-off is not necessarily inevitable. That's because certain factors would serve to offset any imminent decline or regression to the mean. For instance, there is the arrival of Jose Berrios. If his sensational season debut on Saturday was any indicator of things to come, he's a big game-changer for the tenability of this starting corps. With two immediate needs in the rotation following Wednesday's rainout (Saturday and Monday), Adalberto Mejia and Kyle Gibson could both be heading back. At least one of them will be. At the end of camp, some believed Mejia and Gibby could be the staff's two best starters. If either of them benefitted from a reset and comes out on track, that's a major boost. Both pitched well in Triple-A. Phil Hughes is maintaining a delicate junkball balancing act, but he's going to hang in there unless things really go off the rails. What the Twins need is enough true mid-rotation guys to make him effectively their No. 5 starter. It's not a huge stretch. The bullpen is a tough nut to crack. Either Matt Belisle has gotten his worst ball of the season out of the way, or he's cooked. We'll see. These dire control issues are absurdly uncharacteristic. Ryan Pressly's stuff is way too good for that ERA. He was utterly filthy his last time out, hopefully a good omen. But he's awful tough to trust right now. Brandon Kintzler is very solid, though I maintain skepticism about his outlook at closer. Taylor Rogers and Craig Breslow are proving well suited for their roles. Justin Haley is Justin Haley. This bullpen could use a reinforcement or two, and they may be available in short order. J.T. Chargois was at last check starting a rehab assignment in Florida. Nick Burdi has been beyond dominant in Chattanooga, with a 0.61 ERA and 19-to-4 K/BB in 15 innings. He's a candidate for a direct promotion to Minnesota. A sleeper might be Alan Busenitz, the hard-throwing 26-year-old acquired along with Hector Santiago in last year's Ricky Nolasco trade. After tossing 3 1/3 innings of one-hit, scoreless relief for Rochester Wednesday night, he has a 2.25 ERA and 21-to-8 K/BB with with five hits allowed in 15 frames. The Twins have some fire to call upon in the late innings. Granted, it's wild fire. But as any Game of Thrones fan will tell you, wild fire can be an excellent way to ambush opponents. On offense, the cavalry isn't as strong, but it doesn't need to be. The Twins lineup figures to improve on its own. Miguel Sano isn't going to slow down at this rate. Brian Dozier has brought a good approach to the plate and should start seeing more results. Same for Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Joe Mauer is on the upswing. Eduardo Escobar is an awfully nice plug to have around. Things have shaken out favorably for the Twins thus far, sure, but the wins are already in the book. If they merely play .500 from here on out they're an 83-win team. It doesn't exactly take a blind leap of faith to see them exceeding that clip from here on out with just a few good breaks. Click here to view the article

The Twins lost big on Sunday, but not before making a statement in Cleveland by notching a pair of impressive victories against the defending league champs to take the series. Let's focus in on three top storylines as we head into the second half of May with a first-place club.* On Friday, I wrote about the adjustments Jose Berrios had been making in Triple-A, and wondered if they would translate to the majors. Specifically, his latest starts in Rochester suggested Berrios was effectively adhering to a blueprint of attacking the zone relentlessly rather than trying to throw past hitters or maximize the gas. In essence, the Twins were asking him to pitch to contact. And while that's a term that probably makes a number of local fans shudder, it's sage guidance for the young righty, and might have helped him put forth easily his best big-league outing in Saturday's return. The blowback against Minnesota's "pitch to contact" mantra, which to my recollection reached a high point as Rick Anderson futilely attempted to rein in a wayward Francisco Liriano in 2012, was always overblown. It is understandable enough that the phrase would induce a visceral reaction given the chronic and crippling inability of Twins staffs to miss bats over the years, but to take the words at face value is to misunderstand the nature of the concept. Asking a guy to pitch to contact is not a literal instruction to throw over the middle of the plate and let 'em nail it. It is instead about instilling a mentality wherein the pitcher trusts his stuff and stops worrying about actively trying to blow everyone away. And here's the thing with Berrios: he doesn't need a huge strikeout rate. He has proven extremely tough to square up at every level, with the exception of his rookie stints in the majors where he was so often behind the in the count he was forced to pitch to contact in the bad way. In 591 minor-league innings he has allowed only 472 hits and 35 homers. His K-rate in Triple-A dropped from 28.9 percent in 2016 to 25.7 percent in six starts this year, yet his opponents' average dropped from .188 to .167. If he's getting ahead in counts the whiffs will come naturally, but much like his new mentor Ervin Santana, Berrios doesn't need to strike out a batter per inning to be successful at this level. Saturday's start, in which he allowed one run on two hits in 7 2/3 innings despite only four strikeouts, reinforces this. Go ahead and keep on pitching to contact, Jose. * At the end of a sluggish April that registered as one of the least productive months in his career, Joe Mauer expressed minimal concern. “I feel like I’m striking the ball pretty well,” he told Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. “You’ve got to try to stick with the process, and hopefully those results change.” Guess the grizzled vet knew what he was talking about after all. Since the start of May, Mauer's results have taken a turn. In 41 plate appearances this month, he is slashing .324/.390/.514. His batting average on balls in play, which sat at an uncharacteristically low .243 at the end of April, has swung to .385 over the past two weeks. Mauer still has a long way to go before he's even at an average level of output (his OPS ranks second-to-last among qualified AL first basemen) but at least he's moving in the right direction. * The penchant for Minnesota's lineup to hit the ball over the fence has been a major topic during the first leg of the season. Miguel Sano has himself on pace to approach 50 bombs, and Jorge Polanco's long ball on Sunday marked the 15th consecutive game where a Twin has homered, one short of a franchise record. But it's been the pitching staff's ability to keep it in the yard that has been more essential to the team's success. Last year the Twins allowed 221 home runs, most in the American League. This year, they entered Sunday's finale in Cleveland with 40 allowed – fewer than all but six AL teams. Of course, Hector Santiago then went out and gave up three, with Adam Wilk adding another for good measure. But the Twins remain on pace to finish short of last year's total despite homers trending dramatically upward across the league. Is this containment sustainable? It's certainly worth tracking, and there's fair reason for skepticism. Ervin Santana has historically been susceptible to the long ball but he's mostly kept them in check. Ditto Phil Hughes despite lackluster velocity. Berrios, who can't generate much downward plane from a 6'0" frame, gave up 12 in 58 innings with the Twins as a rookie. And the rotation's best ground ball pitcher, Kyle Gibson, is presently in Triple-A. Clearly the pitchers have benefitted tremendously from the exceptional defensive outfielder alignment, but if more balls start traveling beyond the wall it's a different story. As we saw on Sunday. Click here to view the article

After a month of non-stop struggles with the Twins, Kyle Gibson reported to Rochester and finally produced his first quality start of the season on Tuesday. Pounding the strike zone and inducing tons of whiffs and grounders, suddenly everything was going exactly to plan for the veteran right-hander who could hardly have looked more out of sorts through six starts in Minnesota. It's so much easier in Triple-A. Nobody knows that better than Jose Berrios, who will get another shot at translating his game to the big leagues on Saturday.Berrios has, of course, proven his mastery of the minors beyond any shadow of doubt. That has been more true than ever in the early portion of 2017 as the right-hander has eviscerated International League lineups while registering a 1.13 ERA in six starts. On paper, he has checked every box. If the directive was "trust your stuff and and attack," then the numbers tell us he has answered it to a tee. Berrios has traded in strikeouts for weak contact. The K-rate is down slightly but so are the walks, and he has been remarkably efficient. Twice in his six turns he has completed eight innings. He did so while needing fewer than 100 pitches on both occasions. Only once has he failed to get through six. Opponents are batting .169 with a .471 OPS. It's hard to dominate much more than that, but of course, Berrios has always dominated at Triple-A. His ugly MLB stints last year, between sterling stretches with the Red Wings, made it clear that certain issues afflicting him don't necessarily manifest against minor-league lineups. Asking a guy to tweak those issues while they're not manifesting is a tall order. Berrios can do his best to follow the specific blueprint that Twins officials have laid out for him, but how could he really negatively assess his progress while routinely shutting down opponents and winning games? For what it's worth, there are some signs he's making a few adjustments that could help alleviate his troubles at the highest level. In particular, there is this: in his last two starts with Rochester, Berrios allowed only one run on eight hits in 14 2/3 innings. Across the two turns he got 44 called strikes against just 14 swinging. That's not a guy who is getting outs by nibbling around the edges or inducing chases out of the zone. He's succeeding by throwing it over the plate, early in counts, which is precisely what the Twins want to see him do at the next level. The only way for the 22-year-old to get over the hump is to be thrown into the fire, and now he will. We saw the benefit of this approach with Byron Buxton, who hung in there through weeks of maddening results at the plate before turning things around. Granted, in his case, showing patience was a little easier given all that he was chipping on on the defensive side. But the Twins have managed to stay around .500 thus far even with Gibson delivering clunkers every fifth day and without any real contribution from a fifth starter. They can live through further growing pains from Berrios. Hopefully, they won't need to. He had a plan that he executed over four weeks at Triple-A; there's really not much to criticize in his performance if unless you're nitpicking. If he can shake off the nerves and execute that same plan on Saturday afternoon in Cleveland, it'll be a first pitch strike to open his return to the majors. A year ago at this time the already irrelevant Twins were wrapping up an eight-game losing streak and Berrios was wrapping up the first of multiple disappointing attempts in Minnesota. Now he'll join a team that's looking very competitive, and he's bringing more momentum than ever. Here's to new beginnings. Click here to view the article

This isn't really about advanced metrics, it's about basic probabilities. There is some variance, but in the long haul a certain percentage of balls in play are going to turn into hits against any pitcher. When you allow contact at such extremes, you're going to be far more prone to rallies materializing when those hits come in succession. It doesn't make Kintzer a bad pitcher. In fact I think he's a very nice fit earlier in the game, where a string of bloopers and bleeders doesn't necessarily turn into a loss. Also, when he's going good he's very efficient, certainly capable of pitching multiple innings frequently. He just strikes me as a poor fit as closer. But anyway, the point of this article wasn't really that he should be taken out of the ninth. It's that they need to establish some better alternative options for if/when that time comes.