Central Intelligence: Chicago White Sox

I'm not sure anyone has lamented the Twins not having a firesale. Who was there to trade? Outside of maybe Santana and for sure Dozier, the Twins haven't had any good players to trade over the past 7 years or so. They've moved some relievers when it made sense to but that's not a fire sale. They had no market for Dozier so that hasn't been an option. Maybe you say trade Santana but he'll likely have as much value at the deadline this year.

Article on Yoan Moncada from last week.

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18975183/chicago-white-sox-prospect-yoan-moncada-prepping-major-league-debut

I more lament not just calling up the young RPs and SPs sooner, and letting them sink or swim over two years, than not making trades.

 

But, if you can get a legit number 5 starter for Nunez, you should be able to get something for others in the last 7 years, I'd think.....so, I'm not sure they had no one to deal.

Let's time travel:

2016: who else would they trade last year? Dozier hadn't gone supersonic and there aren't any other real great options. You could have traded Kinzler I guess but with all the great bullpen arms moving, there likely wasn't a market. The Twins tried to trade Suzuki but no one wanted him. Plouffe was injured and thus untradeable.

2015: The Twins were competitive and thus would not be expected to have a fire sale.

2014: (1) The Twins dealt Kendrys Morales for a guy who went nowhere (that will happen a lot), a testament to the low value Morales had in a terrible year. (2) Sam Fuld was dealt for Tommy Milone, a pretty nice win for the Twins. (3) The Twins deal a struggling Josh Willingham for drivel. This is one you could say the Twins should have moved earlier after his career year but that's easy to say in hindsight - at the time Willingham seemed like the perfect power bat for Target Field and as their biggest free agent signing, isn't a guy you'd expect to trade after one great year. (4) There are no other position players who look decent. Phil Hughes could have been deal in a career year but it's hard to trade a top-end starter when you don't have one internally. Nothing else particularly exciting in the pen.

2013: (1) Drew Butera was traded at the deadline for Miguel Sulbaran who was traded for Nunez who was traded for Mejia. Drew Butera got us a useful MLB starter, it's amazing. (2) Morneau was traded for no one who became anything but he was a bench bat and thus not worth much. (3) There's really not much of anyone else worth trading with the exception of Glen Perkins, a fascinating case. He is the one top-end reliever the Twins have had since Nathan who might get a king's ransom. I'd say it's a mistake to not deal him at some point.

2012: (1) The Twins traded Francisco Liriano for Eduardo Escobar, a pretty great trade of a rental. (2) They also traded away Danny Valencia for a fringe prospect. (3) Other than that, hard to see Twins who were tradable. Jared Burton had a nice year and could have been dealt but I'm not sure he gets anything crazy back - relievers who are not elite late-inning guys are a dime a dozen and don't get much. 

2011: (1) The Twins traded an expiring Delmon Young for Lester Oliveros, who was at least an interesting arm for a while. (2) Other than that, not much to trade. The exception might be Cuddyer, who had a fine Cuddyer year. I'm not sure he would have gotten much as he profiled as more of a bench bat for a contender than a starting piece. No pitcher warrants trading.

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I stopped there because those years make me sad. I guess overall though, I'd say that the Twins have not had the pieces needed to have a meaningful fire sale - in order to do that you need to have a Chris Sale or an Adam Eaton. The Twins have not had guys that warranted much return. The exceptions would be Willingham, Hughes and Perkins. Perkins is a big miss and would likely have gotten a solid return but the other two seem like "hindsight is 20/20" things. Willingham was older and would not have gotten elite prospects and Hughes probably falls into the category of "prove it in 2015 and you'll be worth a ton".

There seem to be four things that clean up at a deadline:

(1) One of the best position players on the market. If you have a Prince Fielder or Cespedes, you can get some nice pieces. The Twins have not had that player for the past seven years. Mauer's contract was too massive and Willingham and Cuddyer fit more in "platoon OF or bench bat" territory.

(2) A lockdown starting pitcher a contender can slide into the #2 spot in their playoff rotation. Again, the Twins haven't had that guy. Liriano might have been the closest but he was so erratic it's hard to see someone giving up a ton for him. Hughes only did it for one season and wasn't the lockdown guy a contender wants.

(3) Elite relief pitchers. We've only had Perkins. Other guys like Burton or Jepsen or Rauch are nice but they don't get elite prospects back, more middling guys who at best replace they guy they were dealt for.

(4) A really nice utility guy. NL teams especially will sometimes pay for the Zobrist-types who can play three or four positions and are thus useful dealing with late-season injuries and playoff matchups. Nunez was a poor-man's version of this (and let's all remember that the Twins getting Mejia was a pretty major win).

TLDR; When you look at those Twins teams of the past 5-7 years, you don't see a lot of guys who are worth a fire-sale. The Twins have made the minor moves you'd expect with middling success and with the exception of not dealing Perkins, they have not had anything to do in the White Sox tear-it-down vein.

So now that we've gone through all of the teams, what's everyone's predictions for AL Central Standings at the end of the year? 

Mine would be:

Cleveland 90+ wins

Detroit 82-87 wins

Kansas City 75-80 wins

Chicago 70-75 wins

Minnesota 90+ losses 

1. Cleveland - mid to late 90s wins (lots of games against Central, they might be #1 seed as a result)

2. Kansas City - 85 wins, in wild card hunt (one last year of Royals contention - they should firesale but won't)

3. Twins - 80 wins (the lineup will be fierce and deep, they have enough position player depth to cover most injuries and the pitching isn't as bad as last year - just below .500 will be a huge victory)

4. Detroit - 72 wins (I know they're popular at #2 but with Kinsler, Verlander and Cabrera getting old, injuries could devastate their weak depth. I also think this is the year Kinsler turns into a pumpkin.)

5. Chicago - 65 wins (Quintana gets dealt at the deadline and they tailspin)

If there's one thing we know about the Sox, it's that they let their prospects sink or swim at the MLB level. One thing I'm very jealous about as a Twins fan. 

 The problem is that their prospects mostly sink. 538 had a great chat about how the White Sox are awful at developing position players. Abreu is their best one and they never really developed him, he's more of a free agent.

I more lament not just calling up the young RPs and SPs sooner, and letting them sink or swim over two years, than not making trades.

 

But, if you can get a legit number 5 starter for Nunez, you should be able to get something for others in the last 7 years, I'd think.....so, I'm not sure they had no one to deal.

I went long below but to be more to the point, that Nunez deal was a crazy win for the Twins (Giants bought super high on Nunez). The Twins just haven't had good players to deal, with the very notable exception of Glen Perkins, a huge miss. If they'd moved him three or four years ago at a deadline they might have gotten a couple very nice pitching prospects. Elite relievers clean up at the deadline.

And agreed on the young pitchers and I'll add players. I wish they'd dealt Santana (but I get he might have more value at the deadline so not upset - same thing with Hughes and Gibson as long as the Twins have a short leash and are looking to deal) and I wish that guys like JRM, Berrios, Chargois and co were going north this year.

This just shows, imo, what an awful job they did drafting and developing the end of Ryan's first term....and no, I'm not blaming RYAN, I'm talking about the entire organization there.

 

Willingham, imo, isn't hindsight. Many pushed for him to be dealt, and I recall reading on mlbtraderumors that the Twins wouldn't because "we aren't a farm team for others teams" or something like that. Or maybe I dreamed that, but I think not....

 

Perkins was a classic no brainer move, they didn't make. I still have no idea why.

Perkins was (along with Mauer) the face of the Twins at the time. They'd just moved into a new stadium and his was an incredibly team-friendly contract. I think they didn't want to trade a guy like him. I think it's dumb (his contract and performance at the time represent the only really elite trade target the Twins have had) but I imagine those played a factor. Sucks that they didn't.

Willingham is more complicated. I always had the impression that the "farm team for others" thing was more the public comment after the Twins found a lukewarm market for Willingham. He hit a ton of homers but in a new stadium, a lot of people were convinced that it was a bit of a mirage. When you factor in his godawful defense and age, I think the offers were probably pretty low and the Twins decided to let him play out another year and see if that improved things. He promptly fell off a cliff and became useless. I have a hard time blaming the Twins too hard for that one - the deals we make in our head are not always there in reality. Willingham was the biggest contract in Twins history and he seemed perfect for Target Field so hoping for an increase in value wasn't crazy.

100% agreed on not having good players being the issue. The Twins haven't been able to deal for elite prospects because they haven't had them. Teams like the White Sox and Tigers have the elite players they can trade (but face the problem of not wanting to trade them because they are elite).

P.S. I forgot to include Span and Revere before though. Those were solid deals for the Twins, even if Meyer never worked out and May has been up and down. I wish we'd seen more of that but again, besides Perkins the Twins never had the guys to do the Span/Revere type deals.

I'm not saying they could have gotten anything, my comment was that if Nunez can fetch a legit SP, that I'm surprised they couldn't get anything for anyone (other than Span and Revere). I had forgotten about Milone, frankly. No idea what Willingham would have fetched. Perkins is the only sure fire miss on the list.

 

On topic:

The Sox could be really good fast, if the pitchers they got from WAS work out, and they can finally find a few hitters. But then, that's true of most teams (if it all works out, it would make them good).

Yeah, I think the real concepts to look at are whether the Twins traded high and whether they had a good reason to wait/make a deal. 

With Willingham, they certainly didn't trade high but I think you can make a reasonable case for waiting. Another half season and he might have been an impact deadline player, that seems a gamble worth taking. They definitely sold high on Revere and relatively high on Span. Those were smart moves I wish weren't so infrequent. Nunez is really the only other one. Perkins is the opposite, they waited and waited for no good baseball reason (business reasons aside) and the market fell out from under them.

The Twins have done a reasonably good time on the "dumping a rental player" type of deal (Buttera trade, Liriano trade, Fuld trade) which speaks to some good scouting. TR just wasn't particularly aggressive with wheeling and dealing big name players.

It'll be interesting to see if the new regime is more prolific in trading players. It made no sense to do that this offseason as they got used to the team but I think we'll have a better idea this time next year as we see what they do with Dozier, Hughes, Gibson, Santiago, Santana and various bullpen pieces.