Nick Nelson

Baseball is back. The Minnesota Twins have launched into the new season with an impressive showing of power, both from their bats and arms. Here's a rundown of everything that's happened so far and a look ahead to what's next. Weekly Snapshot: Thursday, 3/29 through Sunday, 4/8 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 4-3) Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +8) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA) Just to lay some groundwork, this is the first installment of a new series that will be running all season here at Twins Daily. Each Monday morning you'll find a new "Week in Review" column, covering the best and worst of the past seven days (in this case the past 11), as well as a key storyline worth tracking, and a rundown of the most noteworthy developments in the minor leagues. Additionally, we'll take a look ahead at what's on tap for the coming week. The idea here is to present sort of a micro/macro-hybrid analysis throughout the season, by zooming in on takeaways from each ~1/24th chunk of the schedule and tying them to the bigger picture that is the 2018 campaign. If there's anything else you'd like to see in this weekly space, please don't hesitate to let me know in the comments! HIGHLIGHTS "Bombs and Bullpen" was the title of Tom Froemming's recap from the home opener on Thursday, and it pretty well summarizes up the first week-plus of Twins games – mostly in good ways. A young lineup vaunted for its balance and pop has displayed both in spades. Picking up where they left off in 2017, the Twins have impressively tallied 12 home runs through seven games, and rank 7th among MLB teams in OPS. Minnesota has received production throughout the order. Some hitters have looked better than others, but no one has been totally discouraging. Among the standout performers: Brian Dozier is off to a rousing start, with four homers through his first seven games. The second baseman has been a notoriously slow starter, leading us all to wonder what would happen if he put it together from start to finish here in his walk year. So far, so good.After missing the final stretch of 2017, Miguel Sano has quickly made his presence felt back in the lineup. Despite striking out in nearly half his plate appearances, he's rocking a team-leading 1.147 OPS with four homers and eight RBI.Dozier and Sano are the biggest home run threats in an offense full with them, but amidst all the deep drives, it is the disciplined approaches and scrappy ABs that have stood out most. Max Kepler has struck out only once in 27 plate appearances, with five walks. He's looked much more comfortable against left-handed pitching, which was his pivotal priority this season. Joe Mauer continues to resemble his old self at the plate; he has a .462 OBP and 2-to-4 K/BB ratio thus far. Thrust into starting duty, Eduardo Escobar has come charging out of the gates with a 1.131 OPS, and his nine-pitch battle that resulted in an RBI single during a rally on Saturday stands out as one of the club's best at-bats through a week-plus.In every game thus far, the offense has either given the pitching staff a cozy lead to cruise on, or mounted a comeback of sorts when put in a hole. That's exactly what we're hoping to see on a consistent basis. The rotation started off brilliantly, with 21 consecutive shutout innings (driven by some serious batted ball luck). Twins starters have since looked more human, but still good enough to inspire confidence. And the bullpen was looking stellar up until its first meltdown on Saturday. Paul Molitor has leaned heavily on his newly acquired free agent right-handers Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed who've combined for seven appearances already. Rodney's been effective, outside of the walk-off homer surrendered to Adam Jones on Opening Day. Reed has certainly been living up this bullpen ace billing, with just one hit allowed through his first 5 1/3 innings of work. Taylor Rogers has turned in three scoreless appearances. Ryan Pressly and Gabriel Moya look like the kinds of reliable arms you love to have available for middle-inning roles. In total, Twins relievers have struck out 27 in 24 2/3 innings, upping the intimidation factor after ranking 29th in K rate last year. The depth and quality of both the lineup and pitching staff have mostly been substantiated early on. LOWLIGHTS I say "mostly" because neither group has been without its warts. Not everyone has looked great at the plate. Jason Castro (.461 OPS) and Byron Buxton (.407 OPS) have been among the laggards, but their defensive impacts help make up for it. Logan Morrison is batting .053, but hasn't looked lost or hopeless at the plate. You can't expect everyone to be clicking simultaneously out of the gates. I don't see serious cause for concern with any hitters. There are, however, some noteworthy early issues in the bullpen. Trevor Hildenberger didn't look quite right all spring and that's carried over to the regular season. He has struck out only one of the 17 batters he's faced, and the command has been plainly amiss. He left to two hangers out over the plate on Saturday and they were hammered for a three-run double and two-run homer, turning a surmountable deficit into a blowout. Three of the runs that came across on Hildenberger's watch were charged to Zach Duke, who had loaded the bases. Duke has had a rough go of it as well, although his 16.88 ERA overstates things. He still seems to be finding his control, but shows some truly nasty stuff and has struck out 41% of the batters he's faced so it's not all bad. Duke's safe for now. Hildenberger might be on shakier ground, given that he's got options while the Twins have Alan Busenitz and Tyler Duffey ready in Triple-A. Molitor can ill afford to have any untrusted commodities in the bullpen, given that he's already working around a Rule 5 albatross. Which brings us to this week's... TRENDING STORYLINE Through seven games, it has become crystal clear that Molitor isn't ready to use Tyler Kinley in remotely competitive situations. The manager had chances to deploy Kinley with three- or four-run leads, but ultimately used him only once, with the Twins trailing by seven. During his one inning of work, Kinley showed both why the team would strain to keep him on the roster, and why Molitor has been reluctant to use him in any kind of leverage spot. The fastball and slider were legit, causing looks of bewilderment on the faces of batters. But they were also erratic; in his lone appearance, Kinley issued a walk, and allowed a run to score on a very wild pitch. It's been easy enough for Molitor to work around Kinley's presence up to this point, thanks to all open days and the four-man rotation. But soon enough, the Twins will need to make a decision. The fifth-starter ultimatum was pushed back by Sunday's freezeout, but Minnesota now faces a slate of games on seven straight days at Target Field. Further cancellations are of course very possible, but if all games are played the Twins will need another starter on Friday night against the White Sox. Soon enough, a reliever is gonna need to go in order to make room for Phil Hughes or whoever gets that nod. Kinley's the only one who makes sense, right? The Twins just can't realistically hope to hide him all year as they have so far. But then again, they've become quite invested in the big righty at this point. (Can't help but notice that JT Chargois and Luke Bard, both lost so the Twins could protect Kinley, have been pitching well for the Dodgers and Angels so far.) We'll see. DOWN ON THE FARM Action in the minors has been limited at the opening of the season due to weather. But here are a few noteworthy tidbits. Nick Gordon, who might've been unpleasantly surprised to find himself assigned to Chattanooga after spending the entire 2017 season there, made a statement right off the bat with a four-hit night in the Double-A opener. He played shortstop.Zack Littell, who also has a pretty good case for deserving to be one level higher, struck out seven over 4 1/3 innings of two-run ball in the Lookouts opener.Count Stephen Gonsalves in the same category as the two above; he entered the season with a 2.17 ERA in 28 starts at Double-A. He turned in a very clean first start on Saturday, tossing 5 1/3 hitless innings with three strikeouts and three walks. The lefty has now allowed 110 hits in 167 innings at Chattanooga. What is he still doing there?Tyler Jay relieved Gonsalves in that game and recorded five outs (two on strikeouts) with one hit allowed.LOOKING AHEADCold weather and snow in the forecast could throw this week's plan into turmoil, but here's how things are currently slated to lay out: MONDAY, 4/9: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Justin Verlander v. RHP Lance Lynn TUESDAY, 4/10: ASTROS @ TWINS – LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Jake Odorizzi WEDNESDAY, 4/11: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Lance McCullers v. RHP Kyle Gibson THURSDAY, 4/12: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 4/13: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. Undecided SATURDAY, 4/14: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Miguel Gonzalez v. RHP Lance Lynn SUNDAY, 4/15: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Carson Fulmer v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 1 | BAL 3, MIN 2: Opening D'OhGame 2 | MIN 6, BAL 2: Good Gibby Rides Again!Game 3 | MIN 7, BAL 0: Berri0sGame 4 | PIT 5, MIN 4: Lynn Surrenders Grand Slam in Twins DebutGame 5 | MIN 7, PIT 3: Rosario Sparks Comeback, Inspires Some Head-ScratchingGame 6 | MIN 4, SEA 2: Bombs and BullpenGame 7 | SEA 11, MIN 4: That Escalated QuicklyMore on Twins Daily Dozier, Mauer Approaching Milestones by Cody ChristieJason Castro and a Cup of Coffee by Jamie CameronProven Leadership Will Set Tone for 2018 Red Wings by Ted SchwerzlerTalented Lookouts Eye Repeat in Southern League by Seth StohsBlackmon's Deal with Rockies Sets Precedent for Dozier by Nick Nelson Click here to view the article

By the time Polanco returns, someone else might have taken his job. The Twins are gonna have a hard time relying on him as a full-timer once he's back, because they won't have him in the playoffs. They need someone else primed for the task. And that's not to mention the questions his positive test raises around last year's power breakout. Santana and Gordon were more established players so it's a bit different, but you're right, it's entirely possible that from 2019 and on he'll be fine.

I'm not talking about MLB Trade Rumors. I'm talking about everyone, everywhere. No one anticipated these free agency outcomes. I'm sorry but to say there's "no evidence" that MLB teams are re-valuing free agents is an indefensible stance, no matter how many handpicked examples and dubious comparisons you want to cite (Brett Anderson was "definitely superior" to Lance Lynn?? What?). The subject has been written about time and time and time again. You can argue that this trend is overstated, but not that it doesn't exist.

Why would the player ever want that latter deal? It would be a complete bet against himself (which is partially what makes me wary of Darvish's demands).

Another advantage of a 3-year deal is that it would end at exactly the same time Buxton is scheduled to hit free agency. The logic behind these contracts -- from a team's standpoint -- is fine and defensible, yes. But if you think Lynn and Morrison would've gotten the same deals in past winters I don't know what to tell ya. It is very evidently not true. And while Darvish and Martinez did get long-term deals, both were smaller than anyone expected for the top pitcher and hitter on the market. (The Hosmer contract is inexplicable and an outlier.) I mean, seriously, go look at ANY free agent contract projections prior to the offseason. Almost nobody made close to what analysts expected based on precedent.

That's not really an accurate description of the offseason that just played out. Plenty of players who are above average got contracts much smaller than any previous norm. Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison are pretty clear evidence of a re-valuing of free agents across the league.

I think this is right about where I stand. And I could see it making sense for Dozier, especially if the young nucleus takes a step forward this year. Three more well-paid seasons with a strong contender, then a shot at another free agency payday at age 34. My concern is that he's going to push for more player-option years on top of the first three, like Blackmon has. And I have serious reservations about such a deal.

Brian Dozier wants get paid what he's worth. As he should. The superstar second baseman has earned a relative pittance in his MLB career up to this point. Trouble is, in a suddenly fluctuating player market, it's a bit tricky to assess just what his worth is, practically speaking. But a new $108 million contract extension struck on Wednesday by the Rockies with their stud center fielder Charlie Blackmon may provide some clues.Not so long ago, a Gold Glove infielder with elite power production would've been a shoe-in for a monster deal. But the past offseason made it clear that valuations are changing across the league, and the standard indicators of a surefire free agent windfall are shifting. Dozier, for his part, seems to get it. "If you hit 30 home runs and drive in 80 and you’re one-dimensional and your WAR is a .8 you aren’t going to get paid like players used to," he said during spring training. "If you’ve had a high WAR for many years, I think you’ll do all right.” That last viewpoint is surely helping to fuel Dozier's confidence as he approaches his first date with the open market. Blackmon's new deal will only serve to bolster it. Over the past two seasons, Dozier ranks 13th among all big-leaguers in WAR (the FanGraphs version) at 10.8; Blackmon ranks one spot behind him, with his 10.6 mark checking at No. 14. Blackmon is a year older than Dozier and has followed a somewhat similar career path — a late-bloomer who turned the corner from quality performer to top-tier stud in his late 20s. Although they are different players in many ways, Dozier and his agent now have a reasonable baseline to work against. Breaking Down Blackmon's Deal Here's how the pact for Blackmon works out, per NBC Sports: 2018: $12 million + $2 million signing bonus, which basically replaces the $14 million arbitration-avoiding deal Blackmon signed in January; 2019: $21 million; 2020: $21 million; 2021: $21 million; 2022: $21 million Player Option; 2023: $10 million Player Option, subject to various bonuses and escalators. So essentially, it's a five-year extension with opt-outs in the last two years. That works out to an average of almost $19 million per season, which is about what Dozier could expect in 2019 if he were to accept a qualifying offer from the Twins. Given his desire to cash in with a career payday and lock up long-term security, I see almost no chance the second baseman would accept a QO unless something happens to seriously diminish his value between now and then. But offering it is essentially a no-brainer for Minnesota. What Kind of Offer Would Make Sense for the Twins? We're getting ahead of ourselves here, obviously. Dozier and the Twins have both made clear that in-season negotiations are off the table, so any negotiations will need to take place in the coming offseason, where Minnesota will have to bid against the field. Considering the prudence they've shown up to this point, it seems unlikely the Twins front office would be willing to offer a five-year, $100 million contract in the realm of Blackmon's. Their best bet might be to try to retain Dozier with something in the three-year, $75 million range. It would minimize his risk of diminishing production with age, and by the time such a deal expired, prospects like Royce Lewis and Wander Javier figure to be just breaking into the majors. My sense, however, is that Dozier will prioritize length in his next contract, and recognizing that the Twins won't meet his terms may be the basis for his evident resignation. I continue to believe this will be his last year in Twins uniform, but the potentially career-altering PED suspension for Jorge Polanco – Dozier's possible heir apparent at second – could change things. In any case, with Blackmon and the Rockies hammering out a long-term agreement, we at least have some clarity around what kind of commitment Dozier might realistically command. More on Twins Daily: Steve Buhr lists some highlights from media night for what figures to be a very intriguing Cedar Rapids Kernels teamMy breakdown of the first Twins homestand, which kicks off Thursday with the Target Field openerYour chance to win free tickets to a meet-and-greet with Twins DH Logan MorrisonCody Christie's preview of this year's Ft. Myers Miracle squad Click here to view the article

An April blizzard in Minneapolis – boy, isn't it sad you can't even bat an eye at that string of words? – raged deep into Tuesday night, blanketing Target Field in snow as Thursday afternoon's home opener rapidly approaches. MLB schedules were designed to account for inclement weather on the early end. But even with a continuing abundance of open dates, the Twins will face some challenges in their upcoming 10-game homestand. Not all of them weather-related.MARINERS VS. TWINS 3 Games | Thurs, 4/5 – Sun, 4/8 Looking out the window as I write this, there is still no end to the snowfall in sight. I assume at some point it will peter out, but our new winter coating isn't likely to disappear quickly. The current forecast calls for highs to stay below freezing on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday. It works out nicely, I suppose, that Target Field will host a game on only one of those days. But we could see three first pitches at sub-40 temps in this series. This figures to make matters difficult for these scheduled starters: Thursday: LHP James Paxton v. RHP Kyle Gibson Saturday: RHP Mike Leake v. RHP Jose Berrios Sunday: LHP Marco Gonzales v. RHP Lance Lynn If the projected high of 29 on Saturday holds, the Twins would set a record for lowest game time starting temperature in Target Field history. Tough assignment for Berrios coming off a career-best performance in Baltimore. Of course, the ball won't exactly be flying off the bat in this chill. As Michael Rand recently pointed out, these conditions beg the question: how cold is too cold to play baseball? But as Rand notes, the Mariners don't have another trip to Minnesota, and that creates headaches with rescheduling. The same is true for the next visiting opponent. ASTROS VS. TWINS 3 Games | Mon, 4/9 – Weds, 4/11 As I turn away from the bleak apocalyptic setting outside, I dial up the MLB scoreboard on an app. Oh, look, the Yankees have slaughtered the Rays, and Didi Gregorius – perhaps the fourth-best hitter in their lineup – went 4-for-4 with eight RBIs. How nice. Being forced to think about that stacked roster, which has been resoundingly upgraded after knocking Minnesota out of the playoffs last October, served to harsh my good early season vibes. I do feel the Twins have played quite well in their first four games, despite the 2-2 outcome. But when you consider a team like the Yankees, you're reminded that the bar for a pennant in this league is quite high. And New York isn't even the class of the AL. That distinction belongs to the reigning champs, who head into town next week to give the Twins a major early-season test. The young and absurdly talented Astros have, unsurprisingly, picked up where they left off. As this blog post went to press, they were leading the Orioles and on their way to a fifth victory in six games. Jose Altuve's hitting almost .500. They look dominant. Hopefully the unfamiliar cold weather in Minnesota can throw them off their game. This series looks to be warmer than the previous one, but temperatures are not expected to escape the mid-40s. By this point, the Twins will have least had a few home games to acclimate themselves. In this light, you could perhaps view the timing of this meeting as slightly advantageous. But under no circumstance is Houston going to be an easy matchup. The offense is star-studded and relentless. And these probable pitching matchups are DAUNTING: Monday: RHP Justin Verlander v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Tuesday: LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Kyle Gibson Wednesday: RHP Lance McCullers v. ??? The final game of the Astros series represents the first time all year the Twins will need a fifth starter, although preceding cancellations could change that. Phil Hughes, working back from a "mild oblique strain," threw four innings in Triple-A on Saturday. He'll get to pitch in warm weather during his next rehab start at Ft. Myers on Thursday, but won't be so lucky if he takes the mound in Minnesota next week. There has to be some concern around his oblique tightening up in cold weather. But for now, that's a distant concern. We'll see how many games the Twins are able to get in leading up to that one. They might be able to stretch the four-starter arrangement out just a bit longer. WHITE SOX VS. TWINS 4 Games | Thurs, 4/12 – Sun, 4/15 This series looks like a welcome respite, for multiple reasons. The extended forecast calls for temps in the 50s, which would actually resemble baseball weather. And of course, the White Sox are not the Astros. This young Chicago club is probably more feisty and threatening than Kansas City or Detroit, but should be overmatched by the Twins anyway. It's probably the softest opponent of the month, and an opportunity to get a little fat before running the gauntlet of Indians-Rays-Yankees, all on the road. While it feels almost pointless to lay out probable starters this far out, here's how they'd currently shape up: Thursday: RHP Lucas Giolito v. RHP Jose Berrios Friday: RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Lance Lynn Saturday: RHP Miguel Gonzalez v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Sunday: RHP Michael Fulmer v. RHP Kyle Gibson Given the extreme likelihood of multiple rainouts (or freezeouts) before the White Sox series, those matchups are beyond tentative, but it gives you a look at the kind of favorable tilts Minnesota figures to see, regardless of how the names align. After wrapping up this series, the Twins get to escape the cold and head for a much warmer climate in Puerto Rico – a two-game series helpfully surrounded by a pair of off days. The Indians will supply Minnesota with its second early test. As it lines up now, Berrios would be starting the first game in his native territory. That's by design. But, you know about what they say about the best laid plans... Click here to view the article

I can't wait to check out that local craft beer mecca, looks like a fantastic addition.

In 2016, when they lost 103 games, the Twins allowed 889 runs. That's 100 more than any other American League team – an astonishing average of 5.5 R/G. Minnesota's starters combined for a 5.39 ERA, worst in the majors by far. The rotation's dazzling performance in Baltimore during this season's opening series – 21 scoreless innings, punctuated by a complete game shutout on Sunday – is impressive on its own, but even more so against that backdrop.Needless to say, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine inherited a bit of a mess on the starting pitching front. The unit showed progress in 2017, moving from 30th to 19th in ERA, but now must take another step forward in order to solidify the club's status as a bona fide contender. Against the Orioles, three key components of the front office's recipe were personified: proactivity, polish, and patience. PROACTIVITY: Key Trade Acquisition Pays Immediate Dividends Jake Odorizzi wasn't among the Twins pitchers who reported to Fort Myers in mid-February. He wouldn't be acquired until camp was already underway. But by the time spring training ended, he had earned the billing of Opening Day starter. And boy, did he look up the challenge on Thursday. Unleashing a torrent of high four-seamers and low splitters, Odorizzi kept the Orioles off-balance and out-of-whack, allowing just two hits and two walks over six shutout frames while fanning seven. By all accounts, Odorizzi's availability this offseason was no secret. In October, Tampa Bay Times beat writer Marc Topkin called him the Rays player "most likely to be dealt this winter," and in the ensuing months, Odorizzi was connected to multiple teams – including the Twins. Tampa held out as long as possible, but ultimately, once camp started and they needed to finally pull the trigger, all they could extract was a mid-level infield prospect in Jermaine Palacios. It was enough to make you wonder just what red flags the rest of the league's teams saw in Odorizzi. Starting pitching is forever in-demand, and here we had a 27-year-old former first-round pick with a reasonable salary, and a successful track record in the AL East. No one was willing to pony up more than a future utility man in Single-A? What gives? Granted, injuries limited Odorizzi to 143 innings last year, and his peripherals were not pretty. But with his age and pedigree, he's the kind of guy you bet on, and so far the Twins look smart for doing so. The same basic question that surrounds Odorizzi – "Why did no one else want this guy??" – also apply to Monday's starter, Lance Lynn. We'll see if the front office's other proactive addition can make a similarly strong first impression in Pittsburgh. POLISH: Gibson's Improvements Carry Over Yes, Falvey and Levine needed to bring in some outside talent to bolster the rotation. But another key element of turning the unit around was getting more out of its existing assets. Kyle Gibson was a prime candidate for repair. In many ways, he's the prototype for an effective major-league starting pitcher: tall, lean and cerebral, with ample velocity and heavy sinking stuff. His sinker can be a grounder machine and his slider has bordered on elite at times. But shaky command, inconsistent mechanics, and health issues have continually plagued him. I'm not ready to say Gibson is out of the woods, but he looks like a different player these days. Somewhere around the middle of last summer, a light-bulb flickered for the right-hander. He made some noticeable tweaks – changing his arm slot, shifting on the rubber, altering his repertoire – and suddenly looked like the sturdy workhorse we've been waiting for all along. His reinvention carried over to the mound this spring, but that meant little, given his history of dominating the Grapefruit League before fizzling in the regular season. He knows that. "Too many times in the past I've had that approach in the spring, and then for whatever reason change it when I get into the season," Gibson said after an outstanding spring performance against the Rays in March. "I learned a lot toward the end of the year last year – how my pitches work and how using the fastball differently can help." He's referring, in part, to a tactic that Mr. Odorizzi specializes in – high four-seamers. Gibson has often in the past eschewed that pitch but used it heavily on Saturday, as he did throughout the latter weeks of 2017. Gibson's command was characteristically imperfect, but this time he made it work, firing six hitless innings despite five walks. He will need to keep it going before regaining the full confidence of fans at large, but according to Game Score, his first start of 2018 was better than any of his 29 in 2017. With new pitching coach Garvin Alston garnering positive early reviews, and a vaunted brain trust in baseball operations, it's easy to feel good about the Twins getting the most out of their arms. Phil Hughes will probably present their biggest challenge yet. We'll see how that goes. PATIENCE: Berrios Arrives Odorizzi was great on Thursday. Gibson was even better on Saturday. But on Easter Sunday, Jose Berrios blew them both away with his tour de force: an utterly dominant complete-game shutout. Sure, the Twins probably did some polishing with Berrios, but really, what was required in his case is patience. He dominated every level of the minors, but arrived in the big leagues as an undersized 21-year-old. His tumultuous rookie experience wasn't all that surprising, nor his massive improvement in Year 2. Now, as he enters his first full season as a big-leaguer, Berrios appears to be pulling it all together. Also not surprising. "Every year I get to know my body and myself more," Berrios told me this spring. His first start of 2018 was certainly reflective. The 23-year-old was in control from start to finish against the Orioles, deploying his devastating arsenal with more precision than we've ever seen before during his time in a Twins uniform. "What a clinic," said one scout in attendance. Patience might pay off in more way than one the Twins front office. Fernando Romero is expected to open the season at Class-AAA Rochester, and could wind up being one of the most impactful rookie additions to a major-league pitching staff this season. Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Lewis Thorpe and others are all verging on MLB-ready. It's natural to get overly excited about such a spectacular showing in the season's first three games. But what we saw from the Twins rotation in Baltimore was no fluke. This was by design. More on Twins Daily Tom Froemming's recap of Sunday's 7-0 win against the OriolesWhy I think Eddie Rosario might be one of the best power hitters, pound for pound in the game todayMatt Johnson's latest look at this week in Twins historyCody Christie's examination of Minnesota's early-season schedule Click here to view the article

Sometimes, power hitting comes in the package you'd expect. It's easy to see how Miguel Sano produces the strength to hit a ball into the third deck. Similarly, no one wonders how brawny Logan Morrison managed to poke 38 into the stands last year. But Eddie Rosario? Minnesota's unlikely cleanup hitter doesn't exactly fit the mold.Rosario had a quiet spring, spent mostly nursing a sore arm, but when the regular season kicked off on Thursday he pretty much picked up where he left off. We last saw the 26-year-old stepping up on the big stage in October, launching a two-run homer against New York's Luis Severino in the first inning of the AL Wild Card Game to give Minnesota a sizable (albeit short-lived) early lead. The clutch blast came on the heels of a breakout season in which Rosario went deep 27 times, surpassing his total from 2015 and '16 combined. In his first at-bat of the new campaign, Rosario lifted a drive to deep right-center field with enough distance to clear the fence. But Orioles right fielder Craig Gentry robbed him with a fantastic play, reaching over the Camden wall to pull it back. Later, in extra innings, the Rosario got into another one, slashing a 1-2 offering from Richard Bleier to the warning track in left, where it was caught. Though Rosario came up just short in both of his bids for a round-tripper, the message is already clear: last year's power surge, which saw him post a .568 slugging percentage in the final 95 games, was no fluke. It isn't hard to see why Paul Molitor has tabbed Rosario for the key designation of No. 4 hitter. Sandwiched between top-tier sluggers in Sano and Morrison, Rosario's physical contrast from those two is plain enough to see when they line up for the anthem – while the third baseman and DH weigh in at 250-plus, Rosario is listed at 6'1" and 180 lbs, an explosive bundle of wiry muscles. While his power did begin to fully manifest last year, its onset wasn't as sudden as that of a Brian Dozier. The tool has been evident for Rosario since he was a teenager pacing the Appalachian League with 21 home runs (he edged his teammate, the prodigious phenom Sano, by one). Rosario slugged .484 in the minors, where he was young for every level. He memorably homered in his first MLB plate appearance and tallied 46 extra-base hits in 122 games as a rookie. The pop has always been present for Minnesota's left fielder, and while he might not hit the ball as hard as the guys surrounding him in the lineup – Sano ranked 4th in average exit velocity last year, Morrison ranked 116th, Rosario ranked 278th – it's becoming clearer he's got what it takes to eclipse 30 HR. The combination of innate strength, lightning-quick wrists, and a compact uppercut swing – you can see it in action here on the would-be homer Gentry robbed – turns Rosario into a very impactful offensive weapon, especially when you factor in his uncommon aggressiveness. Cleaning up in Molitor's lineup is a crucial assignment that figures to yield a great deal of opportunity for producing runs. Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer and Sano all finished with OBPs north of .350 last year. Can Rosario reward his manager's show of faith by delivering? ~~~ More on Twins Daily: Matthew Lenz's breakdown of the 2018 outlook for Kyle Gibson, Saturday night's starter.Steve Lien's examination of the next wave of Minnesota Twins talent.Twins relief pitcher projections via Andrew Thares.Jamie Cameron's look at the disparity between Taylor Rogers' first and second halves in 2017. Click here to view the article

They generally took good ABs, had several deep drives caught at the warning track and a HR robbed. Process > results when we're analyzing a 1-game sample.

Play like that, and you'll win more often than you lose.

As they crest what they hope will be a lengthy run of winning baseball, the Minnesota Twins are keeping their options open. There is a defined core in place – young, talented, and under control for several years to come. But the front office has surrounded this core with a remarkable number of players on short-term commitments. So in 2018, the message is clear. This franchise's long-cultivated championship vision is finally being set into motion, with most of the key pieces already in place. Anyone who wants to be part of the ride going forward will need to earn it.Change in baseball is rarely sudden. Since their all-out collapse in 2011, the Twins have been gradually working back toward their previous standing as a perennial playoff contender. The process got underway in earnest the following June, when they drafted Byron Buxton second overall. Like that of Buxton, Minnesota's rise has taken time, seeing its share of fits and starts. But it's no coincidence that just as he truly arrives – now established as a full-time major-leaguer, riding a sustained run of MVP-caliber performance down the stretch – the team appears ready to take off. With all due respect to Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier and their years of tenure, this is Buxton's team. Maybe not in the clubhouse, yet, but his ability to impact games on a nightly basis exceeds anyone on the roster and almost anyone in the league. The center fielder is, fittingly, the centerpiece. * READ: The (Temporary) Luxury of the Best Defender on Earth * But around him, the Twins have assembled a formidable collection of talent, so promising and well-rounded that it's hard not to feel optimistic about the club's chances for another trip to the playoffs. Especially when you consider this season's unique circumstances. Let's start there. Window of Opportunity The American League Central came into existence back in 1994. If you've been watching Twins baseball for that long, then I urge you to think for a moment about all the years between then and now. Over that duration, how many times can you remember three different teams in the division heading into a season where they were blatantly, transparently, unabashedly making zero effort to seriously contend? I'd argue that it's unprecedented, and in many ways unique to the present state of the game. At least one major-league exec has gone on record in suggesting more teams are competing for the 2019 No. 1 draft pick than a 2018 World Series trophy. * READ: Report From the Fort: How Weak is the AL Central? * This past offseason's free agent frigidity reflected a lack of urgency around the league. More than half of all MLB teams seem to be rebuilding in some capacity. The Twins themselves haven't entirely escaped from that designation, but they are a contender on the rise, to be sure. And they were able to strike on some incredible opportunities in this market of stagnation, adding a wealth of new player assets at stunningly low costs. The window is open, more so than we might see it again. An opportunistic front office led by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine has emphatically reacted by constructing a ballclub that appears up to the challenge. Partially by savvy maneuvering, and partially by fortunate inheritance, they've put the pieces in place. A Brain Trust With Brains Worth Trusting The impact of Falvey's behind-the-scenes reconfigurations is difficult to quantify in terms of wins and losses, but the improvement is unmistakable. In 2017, newly obtained hitting coach James Rowson and defensive guru Jeff Pickler both garnered rave reviews as key additions in the dugout. They left their imprints, on an offense that saw several young hitters take big steps forward, and a fielding unit that went from 29th to 12th in defensive efficiency. These successful hires inspire confidence in the selections of Garvin Alston and Derek Shelton, joining this season as pitching coach and bench coach. * READ: One Year In, Rebuilt Twins Front Office is Crushing It * In general, Falvey and his cohorts have shown a keen ability to identify sharp new-age thinkers and install them in roles where their intelligence and expertise can be most useful. Since taking over as chief baseball officer, Falvey has added Harvard grad Daniel Adler as director of baseball operations, as well as 27-year-old wunderkind Jeremy Zoll as director of minor-league operations, while populating the lower ranks with several reputed brainy analysts. Lest you think the human element is being overlooked, these additions have been balanced by infusions of practical experience and perspective. Michael Cuddyer, Torii Hunter, LaTroy Hawkins and most recently Justin Morneau were all brought on as recognizable and relatable special assistants. Jeremy Hefner, who was pitching in a Mets uniform less than five years ago, now serves as an advance scout and conduit of information from baseball research to the players on the field. The advancements in terms of organizational infrastructure under Falvey's leadership have been monumental. After about 16 months of gradually layering in handpicked candidates, the franchise's personnel makeup is finally coming to resemble what Falvey initially envisioned, and sold Twins ownership on. From the executive suite down to the coaching staff, pieces are in place to support a roster boasting enough talent, depth and experience to make some serious noise. Built to Win Paul Molitor has been on a nice run lately. After entering 2017 in the dreaded position of lame duck manager with new bosses, he reversed his dwindling fortunes with an exemplary year at the helm. Molitor led an upstart group to the postseason, was voted AL Manager of the Year, and secured a three-year contract. Now, the front office has gifted him with an offseason windfall, supplementing a roster that was already primed to win with a healthy influx. The club's uncharacteristic free agent shopping spree pushed payroll to a record $130 million, and down in Fort Myers the vibe was clear: expectations for this team are very high. This brings added pressure for Molitor, but I'm sure he'll happily take it in tandem with the bounty of talent he's setting out with in Baltimore on Thursday. You can argue that every position on the 2018 Twins is a strength – though admittedly, you have to strain a little on the pitching side. (Click on any position below to find a full in-depth analysis.) CATCHER: Reliably solid veteran Jason Castro pairs with rookie Mitch Garver, coming off a monster season in Triple-A and carrying plenty of confidence, to form a potentially formidable platoon. FIRST BASE: Joe Mauer sure looks to be back on his game. While even his optimal production won't stand out relative to peers at first, it certainly has value in this lineup, and he's as good as it gets with the glove. SECOND BASE: Over the past two years, Brian Dozier has been one of the best hitters in baseball. That shows no signs of changing as the pending free agent stares down a contract year with off-the-charts motivation. THIRD BASE: Miguel Sano did enough at the plate and in the field this spring to mostly silence concerns around his injury recovery and physical state. He still has much to prove, but the 2017 All-Star's game-changing ability should not be downplayed. SHORTSTOP: Losing Jorge Polanco to an 80-game suspension hurts, no doubt, but the Twins are fortunate in being able to fall back on the powerful Eduardo Escobar and the intriguing Ehire Adrianza in his stead. Oh, and their No. 3 prospect, verging on MLB-ready, plays the position (ostensibly). LEFT FIELD: Many Twins hitters seemed to turn a corner in 2017. No one did it quite as convincingly as Eddie Rosario, whose newfound selectiveness at the plate yielded big returns (27 HR, 78 RBI, .830 OPS). So long as the K/BB trends stick, Rosario should be one of the league's top producers in left field. If his approach evolves further? Look out. CENTER FIELD: Staying healthy and maintaining at the level he settled into last year after April would make Byron Buxton one of the biggest individual difference-makers in the major leagues: a hit-robbing, base-swiping, power-hitting force. RIGHT FIELD: Max Kepler was a below-average but respectable hitter last year. With his picturesque swing, innate athleticism and history of adjustments, it feels almost inevitable that the 25-year-old will find another gear. If so, this will be one of the game's most fearsome outfields. DESIGNATED HITTER: This spot didn't produce much thunder for the 2017 Twins, who ranked eighth out of 15 AL teams in OPS at the position. Logan Morrison should help with that; last year he outhomered the collective DH units for every team except Seattle (Nelson Cruz). STARTING PITCHING: It's a stretch to call this position an area of strength, but the late additions of Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn shored up the rotation significantly, and there are enough quality reinforcements in the pipeline (Ervin Santana, Adalberto Mejia, Trevor May, Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves, to name a few) that it's not so easy to call it a weakness anymore. RELIEF PITCHING: If last year was any indication, contact-heavy bullpens don't cut it in today's MLB. Minnesota's front office has progressively taken steps to power up the pen, populating it with proven strikeout pitchers. The new-look relief corps could prove to be the most imposing to come along for the Twins in more than decade. I can't ever remember such a complete roster out of the gates for this team. Everywhere you look, pieces in place. From Total System Failure To All Systems Go The Twins made history by going from 103 losses in 2016 to a wild-card berth in 2017, and their momentum only continues to grow as we head into the new campaign. At a time where lackadaisical malaise has gripped many of the league's clubs, Falvey and Levine have built a culture of extreme urgency. Sure, the two top execs can afford to be patient – they've got their vital young core locked in, plus a prodigious minor-league pipeline – but it's a different vibe in the locker room. * READ: Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects of 2018 * Of the 25 men on Minnesota's Opening Day active roster, only Jason Castro and Addison Reed have guaranteed contracts for 2019. Whether playing for a free agency payday or merely to build stock in a young career, almost every player on the Twins roster enters this season with enormous personal stakes. One could argue this doesn't create a particularly comfortable environment. But then, one can also argue that "comfort" became one of the central issues for this club during the latter years of Terry Ryan's regime. For the 2018 Twins, complacency is not an option. While all these pieces are now in place, the vast majority of them can are interchangeable. ~~~ This is setting up to be a truly exciting season. Make sure you're following along with Twins Daily all summer by following us on Twitter and Facebook, as well as entering your email address below to receive our newsletter! Click here to view the article

We wrap up our position-by-position breakdown of Minnesota's organizational depth today with an examination of relief pitching. I'm excited to dig in here because this reinvented bullpen is a fascinating unit for the Twins, characterized by high-profile additions, unpredictable youth, and bold gambles.Projected Relievers: Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Ryan Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers, Gabriel Moya, Tyler Kinley Depth: Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Jake Reed, Zack Jones Prospects: Tyler Jay, Dietrich Enns, Mason Melotakis, Tyler Watson, Tom Hackimer THE GOOD Brandon Kintzler and Matt Belisle, who respectably held down closing duties for the 2017 team (albeit in unimposing fashion), are out. Replacing them are righties Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed, who better fit the traditional mold of dominant late-inning arms. Minnesota has also substantially upgraded its left-handed relief foundation from a year ago, replacing Craig Breslow and Buddy Boshers with the vastly higher upside of Zach Duke and Gabriel Moya, while retaining steady specialist Taylor Rogers. Though it lacks a true long reliever, the Twins bullpen is well constructed, giving Paul Molitor a diverse set of potent options leading up to one of the game's most experienced closers. The quality of this group is such that Tyler Duffey (3.72 FIP in 2017) and Alan Busenitz (1.99 ERA in 28 appearances) were sent down to open the season, and few could quibble with the decisions. Possessing power relievers who can come in and strike people out is critical in today's MLB. Last year's top five finishers in bullpen K/9 were the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Indians and Cubs. They were also five of the last teams standing. Minnesota, at 7.7 K/9, ranked 29th out of 30. The eight relievers slated to comprise this year's bullpen combined to average about a strikeout per inning in 2017. That calculation doesn't include Tyler Kinley, who of course didn't pitch in the majors but did average 12.2 K/9 in Single-A and Double-A, and barely accounts for Moya, who has averaged 11.5 K/9 in the minors. This is suddenly a bullpen filled with strikeout pitchers — a remarkable bit of roster wizardly, progressively carried out by the new front office. The first guys in line as call-ups or replacements? Duffey, who struck out 67 over 71 frames in his first season as a reliever. Busenitz, who brings upper-90s heat and has averaged 9.2 K/9 in Triple-A. And finally: John Curtiss, an unheralded prospect who warrants intrigue specifically because of his tremendous ability to miss bats in the Twins system, where he's struck out 245 over 195 frames (including 33 K over 24 IP at Triple-A). So, to summarize all that: Minnesota now has the indisputable makings of a power pen, even if things go amiss with the first wave. That's a status they really haven't been able to claim since 2006, when a unit led by Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon and Pat Neshek led the AL in bullpen K/9. That team also won 96 games – most in the franchise's modern history. Coincidence? THE BAD While they've equipped themselves with a bunch of capable new arms, the Twins have also let several promising ones get away. Luke Bard was snagged by the Angels in the Rule 5 draft and it appears he'll stick on their 25-man roster. If his massive improvements in Double-A and Triple-A last year prove legit, he could potentially be closing games for the Halos by midseason. Nick Burdi was also fished away in the Rule 5, by Pittsburgh, and he'll be stashed on the 60-day DL until completing Tommy John recovery. In late February, the Twins lost J.T. Chargois when we was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers. He is in line to make their team. Bard, Burdi and Chargois were all highly drafted stud relievers out of college with premium gas, and despite injury setbacks, each was on track to make an impact in the majors. Now, they're gone, lost to other organizations in exchange for nothing, because the Twins didn't deem them worth protecting. To be sure, these were measured, rational risks. Given the checkered health histories at play here, a reluctance to plan around these volatile fireballers is quite understandable. But elevating other pitchers as priorities – most notably, the Rule 5 pick Kinley, a relatively unaccomplished minor-leaguer who has occupied a 40-man spot since December – does have a cost. We'll have to wait and see whether the Twins made the right calls with all this shuffling, but there's a reasonable case to be made for every pitcher on the roster deserving his spot. And when it comes to evaluating hurlers, Derek Falvey and his crew have earned some trust. THE BOTTOM LINE The 2018 Twins bullpen will have a very different look, both because it features more new arrivals than incumbents and because it might be the most K-heavy unit Minnesota has assembled in over a decade. The front office chose to wager on its free agents and its Rule 5 selection rather than some homegrown arms that many of us expected to play a role at the big-league level. I'll be curious to see if their altogether logical gambles pan out. If so, the Twins will have shored up one of their most persistent disadvantages from years past. ~~~ Catch up on the rest of the series: Twins Daily Position Analysis: Catcher Twins Daily Position Analysis: First Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Second Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Third Base Twins Daily Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins Daily Position Analysis: Left Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Center Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Right Field Twins Daily Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Twins Daily Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher Click here to view the article

All good points. I guess the real takeaway is this: Santana might not have primarily driven the improvement, but him delivering a quarter of the team's SP innings with a 3.28 ERA was a huge reason for whatever level of success they had in 2017. This year they won't be able to count on that again, both because he'll throw fewer innings and he's extremely unlikely to replicate that performance upon returning. So the statement laid out in the 2nd-to-last paragraph fully stands.