Nick Nelson

All of the weekend's games were lost to your standard mid-April blizzard, which will lead to some rescheduling challenges, but the Minnesota Twins did manage to get in four contests at Target Field over the past week. They won three, made a statement against the defending champs, and saw one of their all-time greats check off a noteworthy milestone. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/9 through Sun, 4/15 *** Record Last Week: 3-1 (Overall: 7-4) Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: +14) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (0.5 GA) Joe Mauer's AVG Last Week: .500 (Season: .412) As a housekeeping note, over the course of the season I will be regularly rotating in and out different tracking stats for the weekly snapshot above. This week I've added Joe Mauer's batting average, which currently leads the majors. He has collected hits in each of his first 11 games and went 6-for-12 with six walks over the past week, reaching base at a .667 clip. HIGHLIGHTS It's only natural that we lead with The Natural himself. Mauer's final hit of the week was the 2,000th of his career. It looked an awful lot like his first one, 14 years earlier: However, Busenitz doesn't appear destined to stick around long. The Twins can bring back LaMarre as a 26th player for their two upcoming games in Puerto Rico due to a lengthy travel stipulation, but will have to send him back down afterward, as they can't officially recall him until 10 days after the option. So they'll likely need to shuffle out Busenitz, their ninth reliever, in favor of another outfielder at that point – maybe Zack Granite or Jake Cave. Eventually the Twins will need to call up another starter. Evidence strongly suggests that Adalberto Mejia, rather than Phil Hughes, was in line to get the call on Friday night. Instead, Mejia worked on Saturday in relief of Aaron Slegers, tossing two innings. When he's been on the hill, Mejia has looked good, allowing only one run on two hits over four frames with five strikeouts, but circumstances have prevented him from getting into any kind of workload rhythm. We're halfway through April and he still hasn't recorded more than six outs in an appearance. WIth off days sandwiching the Puerto Rico series this week, Minnesota can again push off its fifth starter decision. The Twins won't have a need until the second game of next week's series in New York. Mejia could be the guy if he gets a full start in this week and stretches out a bit. Hughes, who tossed five scoreless innings at Single-A in Fort Myers on Saturday, should probably be viewed as the favorite. But don't count out Fernando Romero, who was scheduled to start Sunday in Rochester's rainout. DOWN ON THE FARM It's not often you see a healthy 23-year-old former No. 4 overall pick, with a 3.10 ERA in the minors and plenty of experience in Double-A, go unprotected and undrafted in the Rule 5. But it speaks to where Kohl Stewart's stock stood as of this past offseason. He's got a lot of work to do in order to earn his way back into Minnesota's plans, but took a great first step in his 2018 debut for Chattanooga on Monday, striking out nine with zero walks over five innings of one-run ball. He was cruising along again in his second start Sunday, carrying a perfect game into the fifth, but gave up a three-run homer in the sixth. Returning to the field after losing all of 2017 to Tommy John surgery, Twins Daily No. 5 prospect Alex Kirilloff started a bit slow in Cedar Rapids, going 1-for-12 in his first three games, but busted out big-time last week with multiple hits in three games, including a two-homer outburst on Wednesday. It's safe to say one of the best bats in the Twins system is back on track. At Chattanooga, No. 4 prospect Stephen Gonsalves continues to make his case for an overdue Triple-A promotion, and for being in the Twins' fifth starter mix. He logged four more scoreless innings on Thursday and hasn't allowed a run in two starts. No. 1 prospect Royce Lewis launched his first Single-A home run on Thursday in Peoria, yanking one out to left off 22-year-old Cardinals prospect Jake Walsh with two runners aboard. The big bop sparked a comeback for the Kernels, who were down 4-0 at the time and wound up winning 9-5. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins will happily leave behind this miserable endless winter in favor of much warmer environs, traveling to San Juan for a two-game set against Cleveland. Minnesota is billed as the home team, meaning they'll get last ups. Then it's back to the mainland for a manageable three-game road matchup against a Rays team that's been among baseball's worst. TUESDAY, 4/17: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Carlos Carrasco v. RHP Jake Odorizzi WEDNESDAY, 4/18: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Trevor Bauer v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 4/20: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Chris Archer SATURDAY, 4/21: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Blake Snell SUNDAY, 4/22: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Jake Faria Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 8 | HOU 2, MIN 0: Failure to LaunchGame 9 | MIN 4, HOU 1: Odorizzi, Twins Battle Their Way to VictoryGame 10 | MIN 9, HOU 8: Max to the Rescue!Game 11 | MIN 4, CWS 0: Mauer Reaches 2,000 Hits, Leads Twins to VictoryMore on Twins Daily As Cody Christie notes, this week's short series in Puerto Rico comes with added importance, and not just because of the Twins' ties to the territory. The island is still hurting after last year's hurricane devastation.Matt Johnson's latest Twins Almanac entry peers into the past week in Twins history, reminding us of Cal Ripken's 3,000th hit at the Dome, the first grand slam ever for the franchise, and Jason Kubel's cycle-cinching grandy (obviously not the same one). Click here to view the article

Only for one year. I transferred to St. Louis Park as a sophomore and graduated an Oriole. But the blue and orange shall always remain close to my heart.

Thank you all for the kind words! Really glad so many people have enjoyed the piece. And for the record, it was definitely at 2,000 words exactly when I published it! Subsequent edits may have changed that, as there were undoubtedly a number of typos because I churned out the entire thing in the course of one ~3-hour game while kinda half-watching the TV.

Joe Mauer has never been much of a compiler. Despite his .309 career average and three batting titles, it has taken him 15 MLB seasons to amass 2,000 hits, in large part because of his agnostic view on reaching first base. A hit is the same as a walk, so he has been more than content to settle for the latter. Joe is a man after my own heart. As a writer, I've never understood the fascination some scribes have with compiling massive word counts. From my view, the more concisely you can make a point, the better. Efficiency is king. But with Mauer reaching his big milestone on Thursday night, it only felt right to shed this perspective and focus on that big round number, formerly a mainstay of doomsday proclamists. And so, I'm going to spend exactly 2,000 words in this post musing and reflecting on one of the greatest Twins to ever don the jersey. I don't think I'll have a hard time getting there. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today THE NATURAL In a number of ways. I've always felt a personal connection to Joe Mauer. Maybe it's because we both grew up in the Twin Cities, and are only about two years apart in age. Maybe it's because our subsequent paths have been so closely intertwined. When I was on the freshman baseball team at Washburn High in South Minneapolis, our varsity team faced off against Mauer's Cretin-Derham Hall at the Metrodome; he hit for the cycle with an extra triple. His one-strikeout prep career, which turned him into a top draft pick, was the stuff of legend for any of his contemporaries. Maybe it's because we're both dorky white boys with closet aspirations of being rap stars. It's probably a combination of all these, but more than anything, it's simply an appreciation for watching Mauer play the game. As someone who coaches young kids in the summer months, I have an acute appreciation for the fundamentals and instincts on display every time Mauer takes the field. He was hailed as one of the best defensive catchers in the game during his heyday behind the plate, and it's utterly unsurprising that he has quickly developed into one of the league's finest at first. His aptitude for the sport is unbelievable. Purely in terms of fundamentals, he plays baseball as soundly as anyone as I have ever seen. I still find myself marveling about stuff like this all the time: Of course, he never did fully evolve into the mythical force that flashed in 2009, and for that, his will always be a story of unfulfilled promise in the eyes of some. But plenty of us will happily appreciate Mauer as a unique figure in franchise history, whose No. 7 may never be worn again. THE HATERS Haters gonna hate. That's always been my basic stance regarding the confounding level of negative sentiment toward Mauer from Twins fans. It's easy enough to tune out. I've kind of gotten used to doing so from experience, actually. Here's the thing: My dad? He's one of those naysayers. In fact, he is a model example. Pretty much any time Mauer's name is brought up around him, there'll be a reference to the salary. The ill-advised contract. The blasé "oh hey neato" attitude. Dad's not being mean-spirited, really. There is just a certain level of grumbling, griping and grousing that is inherent to the sports experience for many – almost therapeutic in a way – and Mauer is a fairly easy target. I get that. I'll never understand why folks find it so easy to overlook his considerable positives, but alas. I can see why the big salary, the absence of fiery competitiveness, and the lack of prototypical slugging prowess make him a lightning rod. There's no point in trying to sway anyone at this point. If you're reading this, you're either nodding your head and basking in Mauer's generational greatness or rolling your eyes, and that's fine. But if you're sour on the guy, I would urge you to try and enjoy the present. At this point his salary is completely immaterial. Even if it wasn't, right now Mauer's earning the checks by playing some pretty incredible ball. His plate approach is as good as any in the league, and he's driving pitches as fiercely and consistently as he has in many years. You really could not ask for a better No. 2 hitter, wedged between the elite power bats of Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano. The only people who should be cursing Mauer right now are opposing pitchers trying to navigate this minefield of a lineup. MINNESOTA MADE The other thing that I really love about Mauer is how unbelievably, ridiculously, outrageously Minnesotan he is. Maybe that's why so many locals feel an innate animosity toward him – they look at Mauer and see so much of themselves. His distinct accent, his (almost creepily) friendly demeanor, his understated personality. I mean, look at him: It's no secret I'm a sucker for the story of Glen Perkins: Minnesota high school phenom turned college star turned first-round pick turned All Star big-leaguer. An entire career spent in his own backyard. Well, Mauer takes the hometown hero narrative to new extremes, rarely seen in the history of sport. Born and raised in Minnesota's capital city, he became a prep legend, then a No. 1 draft pick by the team he grew up watching. And during a 15-year career, all spent with that same team, he has won an MVP and made six All Star teams. He'll be a borderline Hall of Fame case when he hangs 'em up. Through it all, he's still the same soft-spoken, easygoing dude with an almost nonexistent ego. Alright, how we doing. Not even at 1,000 words yet? Hoo boy. Alright, well as I try to hammer out a word for every hit in Mauer's career, let's look back and try to pluck out the five biggest and most memorable from that pool of two thousand. (Obviously this is very subjective, and I'd love to hear your own submissions in the comments.) 5 BIGGEST HITS OF JOE MAUER'S CAREER Notches His First Career Hit: April 5, 2004 Mauer was in the Opening Day lineup on April 5th, 2004, facing Cleveland at the Metrodome. Still only 20 years old at the time, he drew a walk against CC Sabathia in his first career plate appearance. Mauer then struck out, walked again, and led off the ninth with his first MLB hit — fittingly, a ground ball single to center. He'd add a second in extra innings. Seals Up His First Batting Title: October 1, 2006 Entering play on the final day of the '06 season, Mauer had the slimmest of leads over New York's Derek Jeter in average – .346 to .345 – and so the American League batting title was very much on the line. Mauer later admitted he had "never been so nervous in (his) life," and struck out swinging in his first at-bat. But he came back with a big double in his next AB and followed with a single to basically clinch the honor. Oh, and in the meantime, the Twins clinched the AL Central crown, with Mauer's two-hit day helping fuel a critical victory. Opens His MVP Campaign with a Bang: May 1, 2009 Joe wasn't quite right when he showed up to spring training in '09, and he ended up missing the first month of the regular season due to a lower-back issue. When he made his highly anticipated debut on the first of May, I was in attendance at the Metrodome, with uncharacteristically good seats. Tucked a few rows behind the visiting dugout on the first-base line, I had a perfect view of Mauer's first swing of the season: a home run drilled over the left field wall. It was a booming start to one of the great months in the modern baseball history – he batted .414 with a 1.338 OPS and 11 home runs... as a Gold Glove catcher! Of course, he'd rightfully go on to win the AL MVP, leading the league in AVG/OBP/SLG. Sparks Twins Rally in 11th Inning of ALDS Game 2: October 9, 2009 Leading off the top of the 11th in an epic seesaw battle in the Bronx, Mauer delivered his second hit of the game – a double, drilled down the left field line off Damaso Marte. Jason Kubel followed with a ground ball single up the middle, scoring Mauer and giving Minnesota the lead. Claiming a huge win on the road, the Twins were able to even the series at one, finally canceling their lengthy hex against the Yankees and heading back home with momentum. Oh, wait. No. In actuality, Mauer's obvious double was inexplicably ruled a foul by Phil Cuzzi, who was staring directly at the ball from about 15 feet away when it bounced well inside the line. Mauer did end up singling in the at-bat, but instead of scoring on Kubel's ensuing base hit he moved up to second, and then to third on a single by Michael Cuddyer. Yanks reliever David Robertson (yep, same David Robertson), went on to retire three straight batters to leave the bases loaded. Mark Teixeira hit a walkoff home run to lead off the bottom of the inning. And the hex lives on to this day. That moment was in so many ways emblematic of Mauer's entire career, and his legacy with a segment of fans. He did end up coming through and getting on base, but not in the singlehandedly game-changing fashion that dances through our heads still to this day. So while it wasn't actually a hit, I'm counting it. Dangit Cuzzi. Tallies Hit No. 2,000 Amid Late-Career Renaissance: April 12, 2018 There have been plenty of other noteworthy knocks in Mauer's fantastic career, many of which surely deserve to be replace the copout selection above. But choosing favorites from a sea of 2,000 is a tall task, which speaks to the caliber of his body of work. Closing your eyes, you can probably picture a montage of Mauer hits: solidly stroked singles to left, double to the gap or down the line, a ground ball single up the middle – like the one that started it all at the Dome 14 years ago, and the one he struck last night in Target Field for the big milestone. Slogging through the miserable 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons was tough enough as a Twins fan, but watching Mauer go through his concussion, and come back as a sub-mediocre player, took the agony to new heights. The thought of Minnesota trying to rise back to contention in spite of him, rather than because of him in some way, was tough to stomach. As such, it has been incredibly gratifying to see Mauer return to his former offensive glory just as the team reemerges. I honestly didn't know if we'd ever see the 34-year-old (35 in one week) perform at this level again, and the way it's come together... well, to borrow his vernacular, it's pretty neat. Looks like I've still got about 60 words left to burn, so I'll close by imparting you with some wisdom from the man himself, according to BrainyQuotes: "It frustrates me if I'm not good at something, so I do it until I get good at it." “I hate striking out, doesn’t matter what time of the game. I just don’t like striking out.” "I like Lil Wayne." "I'm not as cool as I'm supposed to be." "Nobody wants to hear me rap." I suspect no human has made it this far into the article, least of all Joe Mauer himself. But Joe, if you are somehow reading this, please know this much: You're as cool as you need to be. And I want to hear you rap. Very badly. Very, very, very badly. View full article

Baseball is back. The Minnesota Twins have launched into the new season with an impressive showing of power, both from their bats and arms. Here's a rundown of everything that's happened so far and a look ahead to what's next. Weekly Snapshot: Thursday, 3/29 through Sunday, 4/8 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 4-3) Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +8) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA) Just to lay some groundwork, this is the first installment of a new series that will be running all season here at Twins Daily. Each Monday morning you'll find a new "Week in Review" column, covering the best and worst of the past seven days (in this case the past 11), as well as a key storyline worth tracking, and a rundown of the most noteworthy developments in the minor leagues. Additionally, we'll take a look ahead at what's on tap for the coming week. The idea here is to present sort of a micro/macro-hybrid analysis throughout the season, by zooming in on takeaways from each ~1/24th chunk of the schedule and tying them to the bigger picture that is the 2018 campaign. If there's anything else you'd like to see in this weekly space, please don't hesitate to let me know in the comments! HIGHLIGHTS "Bombs and Bullpen" was the title of Tom Froemming's recap from the home opener on Thursday, and it pretty well summarizes up the first week-plus of Twins games – mostly in good ways. A young lineup vaunted for its balance and pop has displayed both in spades. Picking up where they left off in 2017, the Twins have impressively tallied 12 home runs through seven games, and rank 7th among MLB teams in OPS. Minnesota has received production throughout the order. Some hitters have looked better than others, but no one has been totally discouraging. Among the standout performers: Brian Dozier is off to a rousing start, with four homers through his first seven games. The second baseman has been a notoriously slow starter, leading us all to wonder what would happen if he put it together from start to finish here in his walk year. So far, so good.After missing the final stretch of 2017, Miguel Sano has quickly made his presence felt back in the lineup. Despite striking out in nearly half his plate appearances, he's rocking a team-leading 1.147 OPS with four homers and eight RBI.Dozier and Sano are the biggest home run threats in an offense full with them, but amidst all the deep drives, it is the disciplined approaches and scrappy ABs that have stood out most. Max Kepler has struck out only once in 27 plate appearances, with five walks. He's looked much more comfortable against left-handed pitching, which was his pivotal priority this season. Joe Mauer continues to resemble his old self at the plate; he has a .462 OBP and 2-to-4 K/BB ratio thus far. Thrust into starting duty, Eduardo Escobar has come charging out of the gates with a 1.131 OPS, and his nine-pitch battle that resulted in an RBI single during a rally on Saturday stands out as one of the club's best at-bats through a week-plus.In every game thus far, the offense has either given the pitching staff a cozy lead to cruise on, or mounted a comeback of sorts when put in a hole. That's exactly what we're hoping to see on a consistent basis. The rotation started off brilliantly, with 21 consecutive shutout innings (driven by some serious batted ball luck). Twins starters have since looked more human, but still good enough to inspire confidence. And the bullpen was looking stellar up until its first meltdown on Saturday. Paul Molitor has leaned heavily on his newly acquired free agent right-handers Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed who've combined for seven appearances already. Rodney's been effective, outside of the walk-off homer surrendered to Adam Jones on Opening Day. Reed has certainly been living up this bullpen ace billing, with just one hit allowed through his first 5 1/3 innings of work. Taylor Rogers has turned in three scoreless appearances. Ryan Pressly and Gabriel Moya look like the kinds of reliable arms you love to have available for middle-inning roles. In total, Twins relievers have struck out 27 in 24 2/3 innings, upping the intimidation factor after ranking 29th in K rate last year. The depth and quality of both the lineup and pitching staff have mostly been substantiated early on. LOWLIGHTS I say "mostly" because neither group has been without its warts. Not everyone has looked great at the plate. Jason Castro (.461 OPS) and Byron Buxton (.407 OPS) have been among the laggards, but their defensive impacts help make up for it. Logan Morrison is batting .053, but hasn't looked lost or hopeless at the plate. You can't expect everyone to be clicking simultaneously out of the gates. I don't see serious cause for concern with any hitters. There are, however, some noteworthy early issues in the bullpen. Trevor Hildenberger didn't look quite right all spring and that's carried over to the regular season. He has struck out only one of the 17 batters he's faced, and the command has been plainly amiss. He left to two hangers out over the plate on Saturday and they were hammered for a three-run double and two-run homer, turning a surmountable deficit into a blowout. Three of the runs that came across on Hildenberger's watch were charged to Zach Duke, who had loaded the bases. Duke has had a rough go of it as well, although his 16.88 ERA overstates things. He still seems to be finding his control, but shows some truly nasty stuff and has struck out 41% of the batters he's faced so it's not all bad. Duke's safe for now. Hildenberger might be on shakier ground, given that he's got options while the Twins have Alan Busenitz and Tyler Duffey ready in Triple-A. Molitor can ill afford to have any untrusted commodities in the bullpen, given that he's already working around a Rule 5 albatross. Which brings us to this week's... TRENDING STORYLINE Through seven games, it has become crystal clear that Molitor isn't ready to use Tyler Kinley in remotely competitive situations. The manager had chances to deploy Kinley with three- or four-run leads, but ultimately used him only once, with the Twins trailing by seven. During his one inning of work, Kinley showed both why the team would strain to keep him on the roster, and why Molitor has been reluctant to use him in any kind of leverage spot. The fastball and slider were legit, causing looks of bewilderment on the faces of batters. But they were also erratic; in his lone appearance, Kinley issued a walk, and allowed a run to score on a very wild pitch. It's been easy enough for Molitor to work around Kinley's presence up to this point, thanks to all open days and the four-man rotation. But soon enough, the Twins will need to make a decision. The fifth-starter ultimatum was pushed back by Sunday's freezeout, but Minnesota now faces a slate of games on seven straight days at Target Field. Further cancellations are of course very possible, but if all games are played the Twins will need another starter on Friday night against the White Sox. Soon enough, a reliever is gonna need to go in order to make room for Phil Hughes or whoever gets that nod. Kinley's the only one who makes sense, right? The Twins just can't realistically hope to hide him all year as they have so far. But then again, they've become quite invested in the big righty at this point. (Can't help but notice that JT Chargois and Luke Bard, both lost so the Twins could protect Kinley, have been pitching well for the Dodgers and Angels so far.) We'll see. DOWN ON THE FARM Action in the minors has been limited at the opening of the season due to weather. But here are a few noteworthy tidbits. Nick Gordon, who might've been unpleasantly surprised to find himself assigned to Chattanooga after spending the entire 2017 season there, made a statement right off the bat with a four-hit night in the Double-A opener. He played shortstop.Zack Littell, who also has a pretty good case for deserving to be one level higher, struck out seven over 4 1/3 innings of two-run ball in the Lookouts opener.Count Stephen Gonsalves in the same category as the two above; he entered the season with a 2.17 ERA in 28 starts at Double-A. He turned in a very clean first start on Saturday, tossing 5 1/3 hitless innings with three strikeouts and three walks. The lefty has now allowed 110 hits in 167 innings at Chattanooga. What is he still doing there?Tyler Jay relieved Gonsalves in that game and recorded five outs (two on strikeouts) with one hit allowed.LOOKING AHEADCold weather and snow in the forecast could throw this week's plan into turmoil, but here's how things are currently slated to lay out: MONDAY, 4/9: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Justin Verlander v. RHP Lance Lynn TUESDAY, 4/10: ASTROS @ TWINS – LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Jake Odorizzi WEDNESDAY, 4/11: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Lance McCullers v. RHP Kyle Gibson THURSDAY, 4/12: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 4/13: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. Undecided SATURDAY, 4/14: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Miguel Gonzalez v. RHP Lance Lynn SUNDAY, 4/15: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Carson Fulmer v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 1 | BAL 3, MIN 2: Opening D'OhGame 2 | MIN 6, BAL 2: Good Gibby Rides Again!Game 3 | MIN 7, BAL 0: Berri0sGame 4 | PIT 5, MIN 4: Lynn Surrenders Grand Slam in Twins DebutGame 5 | MIN 7, PIT 3: Rosario Sparks Comeback, Inspires Some Head-ScratchingGame 6 | MIN 4, SEA 2: Bombs and BullpenGame 7 | SEA 11, MIN 4: That Escalated QuicklyMore on Twins Daily Dozier, Mauer Approaching Milestones by Cody ChristieJason Castro and a Cup of Coffee by Jamie CameronProven Leadership Will Set Tone for 2018 Red Wings by Ted SchwerzlerTalented Lookouts Eye Repeat in Southern League by Seth StohsBlackmon's Deal with Rockies Sets Precedent for Dozier by Nick Nelson Click here to view the article

By the time Polanco returns, someone else might have taken his job. The Twins are gonna have a hard time relying on him as a full-timer once he's back, because they won't have him in the playoffs. They need someone else primed for the task. And that's not to mention the questions his positive test raises around last year's power breakout. Santana and Gordon were more established players so it's a bit different, but you're right, it's entirely possible that from 2019 and on he'll be fine.

I'm not talking about MLB Trade Rumors. I'm talking about everyone, everywhere. No one anticipated these free agency outcomes. I'm sorry but to say there's "no evidence" that MLB teams are re-valuing free agents is an indefensible stance, no matter how many handpicked examples and dubious comparisons you want to cite (Brett Anderson was "definitely superior" to Lance Lynn?? What?). The subject has been written about time and time and time again. You can argue that this trend is overstated, but not that it doesn't exist.

Why would the player ever want that latter deal? It would be a complete bet against himself (which is partially what makes me wary of Darvish's demands).

Another advantage of a 3-year deal is that it would end at exactly the same time Buxton is scheduled to hit free agency. The logic behind these contracts -- from a team's standpoint -- is fine and defensible, yes. But if you think Lynn and Morrison would've gotten the same deals in past winters I don't know what to tell ya. It is very evidently not true. And while Darvish and Martinez did get long-term deals, both were smaller than anyone expected for the top pitcher and hitter on the market. (The Hosmer contract is inexplicable and an outlier.) I mean, seriously, go look at ANY free agent contract projections prior to the offseason. Almost nobody made close to what analysts expected based on precedent.

That's not really an accurate description of the offseason that just played out. Plenty of players who are above average got contracts much smaller than any previous norm. Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison are pretty clear evidence of a re-valuing of free agents across the league.

I think this is right about where I stand. And I could see it making sense for Dozier, especially if the young nucleus takes a step forward this year. Three more well-paid seasons with a strong contender, then a shot at another free agency payday at age 34. My concern is that he's going to push for more player-option years on top of the first three, like Blackmon has. And I have serious reservations about such a deal.

Brian Dozier wants get paid what he's worth. As he should. The superstar second baseman has earned a relative pittance in his MLB career up to this point. Trouble is, in a suddenly fluctuating player market, it's a bit tricky to assess just what his worth is, practically speaking. But a new $108 million contract extension struck on Wednesday by the Rockies with their stud center fielder Charlie Blackmon may provide some clues.Not so long ago, a Gold Glove infielder with elite power production would've been a shoe-in for a monster deal. But the past offseason made it clear that valuations are changing across the league, and the standard indicators of a surefire free agent windfall are shifting. Dozier, for his part, seems to get it. "If you hit 30 home runs and drive in 80 and you’re one-dimensional and your WAR is a .8 you aren’t going to get paid like players used to," he said during spring training. "If you’ve had a high WAR for many years, I think you’ll do all right.” That last viewpoint is surely helping to fuel Dozier's confidence as he approaches his first date with the open market. Blackmon's new deal will only serve to bolster it. Over the past two seasons, Dozier ranks 13th among all big-leaguers in WAR (the FanGraphs version) at 10.8; Blackmon ranks one spot behind him, with his 10.6 mark checking at No. 14. Blackmon is a year older than Dozier and has followed a somewhat similar career path — a late-bloomer who turned the corner from quality performer to top-tier stud in his late 20s. Although they are different players in many ways, Dozier and his agent now have a reasonable baseline to work against. Breaking Down Blackmon's Deal Here's how the pact for Blackmon works out, per NBC Sports: 2018: $12 million + $2 million signing bonus, which basically replaces the $14 million arbitration-avoiding deal Blackmon signed in January; 2019: $21 million; 2020: $21 million; 2021: $21 million; 2022: $21 million Player Option; 2023: $10 million Player Option, subject to various bonuses and escalators. So essentially, it's a five-year extension with opt-outs in the last two years. That works out to an average of almost $19 million per season, which is about what Dozier could expect in 2019 if he were to accept a qualifying offer from the Twins. Given his desire to cash in with a career payday and lock up long-term security, I see almost no chance the second baseman would accept a QO unless something happens to seriously diminish his value between now and then. But offering it is essentially a no-brainer for Minnesota. What Kind of Offer Would Make Sense for the Twins? We're getting ahead of ourselves here, obviously. Dozier and the Twins have both made clear that in-season negotiations are off the table, so any negotiations will need to take place in the coming offseason, where Minnesota will have to bid against the field. Considering the prudence they've shown up to this point, it seems unlikely the Twins front office would be willing to offer a five-year, $100 million contract in the realm of Blackmon's. Their best bet might be to try to retain Dozier with something in the three-year, $75 million range. It would minimize his risk of diminishing production with age, and by the time such a deal expired, prospects like Royce Lewis and Wander Javier figure to be just breaking into the majors. My sense, however, is that Dozier will prioritize length in his next contract, and recognizing that the Twins won't meet his terms may be the basis for his evident resignation. I continue to believe this will be his last year in Twins uniform, but the potentially career-altering PED suspension for Jorge Polanco – Dozier's possible heir apparent at second – could change things. In any case, with Blackmon and the Rockies hammering out a long-term agreement, we at least have some clarity around what kind of commitment Dozier might realistically command. More on Twins Daily: Steve Buhr lists some highlights from media night for what figures to be a very intriguing Cedar Rapids Kernels teamMy breakdown of the first Twins homestand, which kicks off Thursday with the Target Field openerYour chance to win free tickets to a meet-and-greet with Twins DH Logan MorrisonCody Christie's preview of this year's Ft. Myers Miracle squad Click here to view the article

An April blizzard in Minneapolis – boy, isn't it sad you can't even bat an eye at that string of words? – raged deep into Tuesday night, blanketing Target Field in snow as Thursday afternoon's home opener rapidly approaches. MLB schedules were designed to account for inclement weather on the early end. But even with a continuing abundance of open dates, the Twins will face some challenges in their upcoming 10-game homestand. Not all of them weather-related.MARINERS VS. TWINS 3 Games | Thurs, 4/5 – Sun, 4/8 Looking out the window as I write this, there is still no end to the snowfall in sight. I assume at some point it will peter out, but our new winter coating isn't likely to disappear quickly. The current forecast calls for highs to stay below freezing on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday. It works out nicely, I suppose, that Target Field will host a game on only one of those days. But we could see three first pitches at sub-40 temps in this series. This figures to make matters difficult for these scheduled starters: Thursday: LHP James Paxton v. RHP Kyle Gibson Saturday: RHP Mike Leake v. RHP Jose Berrios Sunday: LHP Marco Gonzales v. RHP Lance Lynn If the projected high of 29 on Saturday holds, the Twins would set a record for lowest game time starting temperature in Target Field history. Tough assignment for Berrios coming off a career-best performance in Baltimore. Of course, the ball won't exactly be flying off the bat in this chill. As Michael Rand recently pointed out, these conditions beg the question: how cold is too cold to play baseball? But as Rand notes, the Mariners don't have another trip to Minnesota, and that creates headaches with rescheduling. The same is true for the next visiting opponent. ASTROS VS. TWINS 3 Games | Mon, 4/9 – Weds, 4/11 As I turn away from the bleak apocalyptic setting outside, I dial up the MLB scoreboard on an app. Oh, look, the Yankees have slaughtered the Rays, and Didi Gregorius – perhaps the fourth-best hitter in their lineup – went 4-for-4 with eight RBIs. How nice. Being forced to think about that stacked roster, which has been resoundingly upgraded after knocking Minnesota out of the playoffs last October, served to harsh my good early season vibes. I do feel the Twins have played quite well in their first four games, despite the 2-2 outcome. But when you consider a team like the Yankees, you're reminded that the bar for a pennant in this league is quite high. And New York isn't even the class of the AL. That distinction belongs to the reigning champs, who head into town next week to give the Twins a major early-season test. The young and absurdly talented Astros have, unsurprisingly, picked up where they left off. As this blog post went to press, they were leading the Orioles and on their way to a fifth victory in six games. Jose Altuve's hitting almost .500. They look dominant. Hopefully the unfamiliar cold weather in Minnesota can throw them off their game. This series looks to be warmer than the previous one, but temperatures are not expected to escape the mid-40s. By this point, the Twins will have least had a few home games to acclimate themselves. In this light, you could perhaps view the timing of this meeting as slightly advantageous. But under no circumstance is Houston going to be an easy matchup. The offense is star-studded and relentless. And these probable pitching matchups are DAUNTING: Monday: RHP Justin Verlander v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Tuesday: LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Kyle Gibson Wednesday: RHP Lance McCullers v. ??? The final game of the Astros series represents the first time all year the Twins will need a fifth starter, although preceding cancellations could change that. Phil Hughes, working back from a "mild oblique strain," threw four innings in Triple-A on Saturday. He'll get to pitch in warm weather during his next rehab start at Ft. Myers on Thursday, but won't be so lucky if he takes the mound in Minnesota next week. There has to be some concern around his oblique tightening up in cold weather. But for now, that's a distant concern. We'll see how many games the Twins are able to get in leading up to that one. They might be able to stretch the four-starter arrangement out just a bit longer. WHITE SOX VS. TWINS 4 Games | Thurs, 4/12 – Sun, 4/15 This series looks like a welcome respite, for multiple reasons. The extended forecast calls for temps in the 50s, which would actually resemble baseball weather. And of course, the White Sox are not the Astros. This young Chicago club is probably more feisty and threatening than Kansas City or Detroit, but should be overmatched by the Twins anyway. It's probably the softest opponent of the month, and an opportunity to get a little fat before running the gauntlet of Indians-Rays-Yankees, all on the road. While it feels almost pointless to lay out probable starters this far out, here's how they'd currently shape up: Thursday: RHP Lucas Giolito v. RHP Jose Berrios Friday: RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Lance Lynn Saturday: RHP Miguel Gonzalez v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Sunday: RHP Michael Fulmer v. RHP Kyle Gibson Given the extreme likelihood of multiple rainouts (or freezeouts) before the White Sox series, those matchups are beyond tentative, but it gives you a look at the kind of favorable tilts Minnesota figures to see, regardless of how the names align. After wrapping up this series, the Twins get to escape the cold and head for a much warmer climate in Puerto Rico – a two-game series helpfully surrounded by a pair of off days. The Indians will supply Minnesota with its second early test. As it lines up now, Berrios would be starting the first game in his native territory. That's by design. But, you know about what they say about the best laid plans... Click here to view the article

I can't wait to check out that local craft beer mecca, looks like a fantastic addition.

In 2016, when they lost 103 games, the Twins allowed 889 runs. That's 100 more than any other American League team – an astonishing average of 5.5 R/G. Minnesota's starters combined for a 5.39 ERA, worst in the majors by far. The rotation's dazzling performance in Baltimore during this season's opening series – 21 scoreless innings, punctuated by a complete game shutout on Sunday – is impressive on its own, but even more so against that backdrop.Needless to say, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine inherited a bit of a mess on the starting pitching front. The unit showed progress in 2017, moving from 30th to 19th in ERA, but now must take another step forward in order to solidify the club's status as a bona fide contender. Against the Orioles, three key components of the front office's recipe were personified: proactivity, polish, and patience. PROACTIVITY: Key Trade Acquisition Pays Immediate Dividends Jake Odorizzi wasn't among the Twins pitchers who reported to Fort Myers in mid-February. He wouldn't be acquired until camp was already underway. But by the time spring training ended, he had earned the billing of Opening Day starter. And boy, did he look up the challenge on Thursday. Unleashing a torrent of high four-seamers and low splitters, Odorizzi kept the Orioles off-balance and out-of-whack, allowing just two hits and two walks over six shutout frames while fanning seven. By all accounts, Odorizzi's availability this offseason was no secret. In October, Tampa Bay Times beat writer Marc Topkin called him the Rays player "most likely to be dealt this winter," and in the ensuing months, Odorizzi was connected to multiple teams – including the Twins. Tampa held out as long as possible, but ultimately, once camp started and they needed to finally pull the trigger, all they could extract was a mid-level infield prospect in Jermaine Palacios. It was enough to make you wonder just what red flags the rest of the league's teams saw in Odorizzi. Starting pitching is forever in-demand, and here we had a 27-year-old former first-round pick with a reasonable salary, and a successful track record in the AL East. No one was willing to pony up more than a future utility man in Single-A? What gives? Granted, injuries limited Odorizzi to 143 innings last year, and his peripherals were not pretty. But with his age and pedigree, he's the kind of guy you bet on, and so far the Twins look smart for doing so. The same basic question that surrounds Odorizzi – "Why did no one else want this guy??" – also apply to Monday's starter, Lance Lynn. We'll see if the front office's other proactive addition can make a similarly strong first impression in Pittsburgh. POLISH: Gibson's Improvements Carry Over Yes, Falvey and Levine needed to bring in some outside talent to bolster the rotation. But another key element of turning the unit around was getting more out of its existing assets. Kyle Gibson was a prime candidate for repair. In many ways, he's the prototype for an effective major-league starting pitcher: tall, lean and cerebral, with ample velocity and heavy sinking stuff. His sinker can be a grounder machine and his slider has bordered on elite at times. But shaky command, inconsistent mechanics, and health issues have continually plagued him. I'm not ready to say Gibson is out of the woods, but he looks like a different player these days. Somewhere around the middle of last summer, a light-bulb flickered for the right-hander. He made some noticeable tweaks – changing his arm slot, shifting on the rubber, altering his repertoire – and suddenly looked like the sturdy workhorse we've been waiting for all along. His reinvention carried over to the mound this spring, but that meant little, given his history of dominating the Grapefruit League before fizzling in the regular season. He knows that. "Too many times in the past I've had that approach in the spring, and then for whatever reason change it when I get into the season," Gibson said after an outstanding spring performance against the Rays in March. "I learned a lot toward the end of the year last year – how my pitches work and how using the fastball differently can help." He's referring, in part, to a tactic that Mr. Odorizzi specializes in – high four-seamers. Gibson has often in the past eschewed that pitch but used it heavily on Saturday, as he did throughout the latter weeks of 2017. Gibson's command was characteristically imperfect, but this time he made it work, firing six hitless innings despite five walks. He will need to keep it going before regaining the full confidence of fans at large, but according to Game Score, his first start of 2018 was better than any of his 29 in 2017. With new pitching coach Garvin Alston garnering positive early reviews, and a vaunted brain trust in baseball operations, it's easy to feel good about the Twins getting the most out of their arms. Phil Hughes will probably present their biggest challenge yet. We'll see how that goes. PATIENCE: Berrios Arrives Odorizzi was great on Thursday. Gibson was even better on Saturday. But on Easter Sunday, Jose Berrios blew them both away with his tour de force: an utterly dominant complete-game shutout. Sure, the Twins probably did some polishing with Berrios, but really, what was required in his case is patience. He dominated every level of the minors, but arrived in the big leagues as an undersized 21-year-old. His tumultuous rookie experience wasn't all that surprising, nor his massive improvement in Year 2. Now, as he enters his first full season as a big-leaguer, Berrios appears to be pulling it all together. Also not surprising. "Every year I get to know my body and myself more," Berrios told me this spring. His first start of 2018 was certainly reflective. The 23-year-old was in control from start to finish against the Orioles, deploying his devastating arsenal with more precision than we've ever seen before during his time in a Twins uniform. "What a clinic," said one scout in attendance. Patience might pay off in more way than one the Twins front office. Fernando Romero is expected to open the season at Class-AAA Rochester, and could wind up being one of the most impactful rookie additions to a major-league pitching staff this season. Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Lewis Thorpe and others are all verging on MLB-ready. It's natural to get overly excited about such a spectacular showing in the season's first three games. But what we saw from the Twins rotation in Baltimore was no fluke. This was by design. More on Twins Daily Tom Froemming's recap of Sunday's 7-0 win against the OriolesWhy I think Eddie Rosario might be one of the best power hitters, pound for pound in the game todayMatt Johnson's latest look at this week in Twins historyCody Christie's examination of Minnesota's early-season schedule Click here to view the article

Sometimes, power hitting comes in the package you'd expect. It's easy to see how Miguel Sano produces the strength to hit a ball into the third deck. Similarly, no one wonders how brawny Logan Morrison managed to poke 38 into the stands last year. But Eddie Rosario? Minnesota's unlikely cleanup hitter doesn't exactly fit the mold.Rosario had a quiet spring, spent mostly nursing a sore arm, but when the regular season kicked off on Thursday he pretty much picked up where he left off. We last saw the 26-year-old stepping up on the big stage in October, launching a two-run homer against New York's Luis Severino in the first inning of the AL Wild Card Game to give Minnesota a sizable (albeit short-lived) early lead. The clutch blast came on the heels of a breakout season in which Rosario went deep 27 times, surpassing his total from 2015 and '16 combined. In his first at-bat of the new campaign, Rosario lifted a drive to deep right-center field with enough distance to clear the fence. But Orioles right fielder Craig Gentry robbed him with a fantastic play, reaching over the Camden wall to pull it back. Later, in extra innings, the Rosario got into another one, slashing a 1-2 offering from Richard Bleier to the warning track in left, where it was caught. Though Rosario came up just short in both of his bids for a round-tripper, the message is already clear: last year's power surge, which saw him post a .568 slugging percentage in the final 95 games, was no fluke. It isn't hard to see why Paul Molitor has tabbed Rosario for the key designation of No. 4 hitter. Sandwiched between top-tier sluggers in Sano and Morrison, Rosario's physical contrast from those two is plain enough to see when they line up for the anthem – while the third baseman and DH weigh in at 250-plus, Rosario is listed at 6'1" and 180 lbs, an explosive bundle of wiry muscles. While his power did begin to fully manifest last year, its onset wasn't as sudden as that of a Brian Dozier. The tool has been evident for Rosario since he was a teenager pacing the Appalachian League with 21 home runs (he edged his teammate, the prodigious phenom Sano, by one). Rosario slugged .484 in the minors, where he was young for every level. He memorably homered in his first MLB plate appearance and tallied 46 extra-base hits in 122 games as a rookie. The pop has always been present for Minnesota's left fielder, and while he might not hit the ball as hard as the guys surrounding him in the lineup – Sano ranked 4th in average exit velocity last year, Morrison ranked 116th, Rosario ranked 278th – it's becoming clearer he's got what it takes to eclipse 30 HR. The combination of innate strength, lightning-quick wrists, and a compact uppercut swing – you can see it in action here on the would-be homer Gentry robbed – turns Rosario into a very impactful offensive weapon, especially when you factor in his uncommon aggressiveness. Cleaning up in Molitor's lineup is a crucial assignment that figures to yield a great deal of opportunity for producing runs. Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer and Sano all finished with OBPs north of .350 last year. Can Rosario reward his manager's show of faith by delivering? ~~~ More on Twins Daily: Matthew Lenz's breakdown of the 2018 outlook for Kyle Gibson, Saturday night's starter.Steve Lien's examination of the next wave of Minnesota Twins talent.Twins relief pitcher projections via Andrew Thares.Jamie Cameron's look at the disparity between Taylor Rogers' first and second halves in 2017. Click here to view the article

They generally took good ABs, had several deep drives caught at the warning track and a HR robbed. Process > results when we're analyzing a 1-game sample.

Play like that, and you'll win more often than you lose.