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Did Minnesota Just Summon the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come?
Nick Nelson posted an article in Twins
I feel for Carter. Had he come along 10 years earlier, he might've been viewed much differently as an asset. Not so long ago, the thought of a 29-year-old who led the league in home runs being forced to settle for a one-year, $3.5 million deal (as Carter did with the Yankees last February) would've been inconceivable. Forty-one homers got you paid. Period. But it is the reality of today's MLB, where strikeout-prone sluggers who lack complementary offensive skills, or any kind of defensive value, are not commodities. Carter was toiling away in Triple-A before Minnesota traded cash considerations to the Angels for him on Wednesday. After signing (once again, in late February) a minor-league contract with the Halos, he launched 13 homers with a .600 slugging percentage at Salt Lake, but the big-league club had no use for him. Carter will head to the minors in his new organization, too, but maybe not for long. The Twins evidently see a possible need for him, which might speak to the level of concern around Joe Mauer. Surely it's coincidence that Carter arrives in Rochester just as Sano (likely) departs to meet the Twins in Seattle. Surely it is. But... If you could handpick a "Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come" equivalent for Miguel's Ebenezer – in all of baseball – it would be Chris Carter. That's no disrespect to Carter, whose 158 home runs would tie Brian Dozier for 12th in Twins history. His power is prodigious, and has been since he was a 20-year-old mashing 39 home runs at High-A. But his grievously high strikeout rates have suffocated the impact of his immense pop. To be fair, Carter's still playing ball, and has a chance to return to the majors soon. He's hardly a worst-case scenario in the grand scheme. But he was also never gifted with the innate talent of Sano, whose shine has greatly diminished since an incandescent debut in 2015. Even as one who tries to give Sano every benefit of the doubt, I can't ignore the overwhelming evidence of a player who has strayed badly off course. Underwhelming numbers, tons of missed time, off-the-field allegations, and reports from those around him of an inexplicably lackadaisical attitude. Sano's career strikeout rate (36.1%) is considerably higher than Carter's (33.3%). It was at an outrageous 40% before he went down this year. While Sano still looks reasonably capable at third base, he's undeniably trending the wrong direction. The majestic power won't go away. But neither has that of Carter, who now finds himself a journeyman at age 31. Perhaps, if they have a passing encounter on Thursday, Sano will make a note of it. I found this quote from Paul Molitor, while an MLB investigation floated over Sano's head at Twins camp, rather interesting: “I think the trend has been he’s figuring some things out; some things have been a little harder to get through to him,” Molitor said. “At times I’ve tried to involve people that might be able to provide a voice that will penetrate. We’re just trying to get him to see the bigger picture. “He loves to play. It’s all in front of him. He, as much as anyone in that clubhouse, wants what’s in front of him, but I’m not sure he understands what is required to reap those rewards — of competing, winning, financial security, taking care of his family. We’re trying.” The decision to bring Carter aboard was obviously not motivated by a desire to send some overly dramatic message to Sano. But the 24-year-old, very much at a career crossroads, would be wise to take it as such. The thought of that future, given his infinitely higher potential, should scare the dickens out of him. -
I dunno if it's desperation. I think he had a vision for this team returning to contention with Hughes as a front-line starter and Perkins as a closer, so he locked them up for (at the time) beyond reasonably costs. It was theoretically not a bad plan. They could have declined from where they were at when they signed and still been solid values. He couldn't have foreseen the way things would unravel for both.
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He gave it his all. No one could deny that Phil Hughes did everything in his power to battle through major health woes in efforts to provide some return on Minnesota's investment in him. Ultimately, he couldn't fend off the inevitable. His twice-repaired shoulder just didn't have enough to give anymore. And on Monday night, the Twins announced they have designated the veteran right-hander for assignment, effectively ending his tenure with the team and leaving ownership on the hook for around $20 million still owed through 2019.There's no question. Terry Ryan's extension for Hughes in December of 2014, with two years still remaining on the pitcher's contract, was an ill-advised one. It now will cost the Pohlads, who may be able recoup some of the money through insurance (though I've seen nothing to that effect as of yet). But if ever a guy was deserving of such a leap of faith, it was Hughes. Let's not forget: this was a 27-year-old free agent, a former first-round draft pick and elite young talent coming off a down season, who – rather than taking the usual make-good-and-move-on route – signed for three years at a stunningly reasonable rate in Minnesota. Then, Hughes went on to deliver one of the top three seasons by a Twins starter in the past decade. And at the end of it, when he came one out short of reaching a $500K contract escalator at 210 IP, he turned down the team's offer to pony it up. Said it would set a bad precedent. Even for a millionaire pro athlete, that is a lot of money to walk away from. It added to a respect that I'd already built up for Hughes. I enjoyed watching him early in his career from afar, even as a member of the hated Yankees. I was a huge fan of his contract with the Twins – to this day, I consider it the finest Ryan ever signed (even if the extension negated that brilliant stroke). And watching Hughes pitch in 2014 was a true delight. He was at the pinnacle of his craft, consistently hitting spots with lethal precision while setting the all-time MLB record for K/BB ratio. For what it's worth, according to FanGraphs, Hughes was worth $44.7 million in that season alone, accounting for about two-thirds of the $66 million he'll make in his tenure with the club. And while he's never come close to approximating that performance in four seasons since, he has tried. After throwing a career-high 209 innings in 2014, Hughes saw a serious velocity drop in 2015. He fought through and tossed 155 innings with a respectable 4.40 ERA. We all hoped his arm would rebound the next year; he was still under 30, after all. It didn't. Hughes lost more arm strength in 2016 and his performance became untenably bad. A line drive to the leg ended his season, but only beat to the punch the real culprit: a bum shoulder. He underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome a few weeks later. Hughes rehabbed and came back to spring training in 2017 feeling optimistic. But it quickly became apparent he still didn't have it. The Twins tried him as a reliever for a while and then, realizing the same symptoms were inhibiting him as before, had him go under the knife for a second time to relieve his enduring shoulder condition. The success rate for two-time TOS surgery recipients is very low. Hughes recognized that. Through it all, he kept trying to tinker and find some way to get major-league hitters out. Even in my brief interactions with Hughes while covering spring training in Ft. Myers, it was obvious the man experiments relentlessly to find any kind of edge. No amount of tinkering, however, can offset a nonfunctional shoulder. The decision to move on was sadly long overdue, and allows the new front office leadership to move on uninhibited by his burdensome presence on the roster. Hughes is still only 31 years old. It's very possible he'll find his way back after a lengthy period to rest and strengthen his shoulder. I really hope he does. But it wasn't going to happen here. And now that chapter is closed. As of Monday night, the Twins had not announced a replacement for Hughes on the 25-man roster, though we're hearing it'll likely be Ryan LaMarre. The vacant 40-man spot should soon be filled by Trevor May, eligible to come off the 60-day DL in a week. Click here to view the article
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There's no question. Terry Ryan's extension for Hughes in December of 2014, with two years still remaining on the pitcher's contract, was an ill-advised one. It now will cost the Pohlads, who may be able recoup some of the money through insurance (though I've seen nothing to that effect as of yet). But if ever a guy was deserving of such a leap of faith, it was Hughes. Let's not forget: this was a 27-year-old free agent, a former first-round draft pick and elite young talent coming off a down season, who – rather than taking the usual make-good-and-move-on route – signed for three years at a stunningly reasonable rate in Minnesota. Then, Hughes went on to deliver one of the top three seasons by a Twins starter in the past decade. And at the end of it, when he came one out short of reaching a $500K contract escalator at 210 IP, he turned down the team's offer to pony it up. Said it would set a bad precedent. Even for a millionaire pro athlete, that is a lot of money to walk away from. It added to a respect that I'd already built up for Hughes. I enjoyed watching him early in his career from afar, even as a member of the hated Yankees. I was a huge fan of his contract with the Twins – to this day, I consider it the finest Ryan ever signed (even if the extension negated that brilliant stroke). And watching Hughes pitch in 2014 was a true delight. He was at the pinnacle of his craft, consistently hitting spots with lethal precision while setting the all-time MLB record for K/BB ratio. For what it's worth, according to FanGraphs, Hughes was worth $44.7 million in that season alone, accounting for about two-thirds of the $66 million he'll make in his tenure with the club. And while he's never come close to approximating that performance in four seasons since, he has tried. After throwing a career-high 209 innings in 2014, Hughes saw a serious velocity drop in 2015. He fought through and tossed 155 innings with a respectable 4.40 ERA. We all hoped his arm would rebound the next year; he was still under 30, after all. It didn't. Hughes lost more arm strength in 2016 and his performance became untenably bad. A line drive to the leg ended his season, but only beat to the punch the real culprit: a bum shoulder. He underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome a few weeks later. Hughes rehabbed and came back to spring training in 2017 feeling optimistic. But it quickly became apparent he still didn't have it. The Twins tried him as a reliever for a while and then, realizing the same symptoms were inhibiting him as before, had him go under the knife for a second time to relieve his enduring shoulder condition. The success rate for two-time TOS surgery recipients is very low. Hughes recognized that. Through it all, he kept trying to tinker and find some way to get major-league hitters out. Even in my brief interactions with Hughes while covering spring training in Ft. Myers, it was obvious the man experiments relentlessly to find any kind of edge. No amount of tinkering, however, can offset a nonfunctional shoulder. The decision to move on was sadly long overdue, and allows the new front office leadership to move on uninhibited by his burdensome presence on the roster. Hughes is still only 31 years old. It's very possible he'll find his way back after a lengthy period to rest and strengthen his shoulder. I really hope he does. But it wasn't going to happen here. And now that chapter is closed. As of Monday night, the Twins had not announced a replacement for Hughes on the 25-man roster, though we're hearing it'll likely be Ryan LaMarre. The vacant 40-man spot should soon be filled by Trevor May, eligible to come off the 60-day DL in a week.
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Article: A Whole New LoMo
Nick Nelson replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Good stuff. From my view, seems like Morrison's swing is a bit slow, but when he gets a solid early read he gets the barrel out there nicely. Been a lifesaver this past month. Nauseating to think where they might be right now without him. -
Article: Week in Review: Crisis of Leadership
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Did I? Or did you just read the title and take exception to a word you associate with someone's character? Find me an excerpt of this piece that you find unfair. Let's see it. Quit falling back on the same word. I'm not a believer in "leadership" as some intangible personality trait. I have never written about it as such. I call Dozier and Buxton the team's leaders because they are the best players and if they're doing well, the team will most likely do well. If they aren't doing well, they lead the team to mediocrity or worse. The Twins follow their lead. We saw that play out last year, and we're seeing it play out this year. Leadership is delivering on the field when your squad needs you. Leadership is Dozier saying 'we're pissed' after the team's deadline sell in 2017, then going out and tearing it up in August. Leadership is not playing abjectly terrible baseball for a month while being counted on to step up.- 105 replies
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Article: Week in Review: Crisis of Leadership
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For what it's worth, Jim Souhan seems to have similar concerns: http://www.startribune.com/joe-mauer-s-latest-10-day-dl-could-be-troubling/483137561/ Obviously it's in his interest as a columnist to stir people up and exaggerate situations -- and we all know his history of writing about Mauer -- but Souhan is plugged in enough that his sense of alarm here makes me feel even more uneasy.- 105 replies
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Article: Week in Review: Crisis of Leadership
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
No one accused anyone of laziness or not trying. The fact is that this team is dramatically underperforming and its two best players have been at the root of that for a month now. Am I supposed to not call it out? That is THE story with this team. Dozier and Buxton combined for 8.5 WAR last year and they currently combine for 0.0 WAR. I'm not claiming to know (or care) what's going on in the clubhouse and this article wasn't about that. They're not leading the team with their performance on the field, which is all I'm concerned with. Buxton's a mess and these endless regressions at the plate are getting hard to tolerate. Dozier's been turning in a .275 OBP at the top of the order for the past month and his signature power's gone amiss. This is a weekly recap column and the Twins had a bad week. Their two most important players are in terrible ruts. I'm not sure what you're looking for other than 'doom and gloom.' I think I made clear in the piece that there's still plenty of time to right the ship, no?- 105 replies
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Last year, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton ranked first and second among Twins players in WAR. They were driving forces in the team's playoff push and, with a better supporting cast in place, expected to help propel another step forward for Minnesota in 2018. Instead, they've become poster children for a disappointing club that cannot stop tripping over itself at every turn. The past week brought another maddening series of lapses and letdowns. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/14 through Sun, 5/20 *** Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 19-23) Run Differential Last Week: -4 (Overall: -21) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (2.5 GB) Before we dive into the usual highlights, lowlights, storylines and minor-league updates, let's just get this out there: the Twins are in disarray, and it is the guys who are supposed to be leading that are in fact dragging them down. Prior to the season, my bold and optimistic prediction was that Dozier and Buxton would both be Top 5 finishers in the American League MVP voting: Call it homerish or pollyannaish if you please, but the take wasn't without solid founding. Dozier and Buxton were among the league's most impactful players in the latter portion of 2017, each earning down-ballot MVP votes. This year, circumstances favored big seasons for both: Dozier in a walk year staring down free agency; Buxton with 1,000 MLB plate appearances in the bank, appearing to have legitimately turned a corner with his approach. Instead, both players have fallen back into their most frustrating patterns at the plate – Dozier skidding through lengthy stretches of unproductivity with an exploitable swing, Buxton resembling an overwhelmed A-baller trying to fend off peak Pedro Martinez in pretty much every AB. Over the past week, the two combined to go 3-for-37 with 13 strikeouts. Dozier is batting .175 in 26 games since the start of the Yankees series. Buxton's OPS is teetering around .400. Meanwhile, other top contributors from 2017 who were hoped to be integral cogs in a contending effort – Miguel Sano, Ervin Santana, Jorge Polanco – have been either mostly or entirely absent. And now another is sidelined with Joe Mauer hitting the disabled list this week following an ominous return of concussion symptoms. Granted, you can't plan for all the injuries and attrition; I'm sure no one foresaw the Twins with Jake Cave, Ehire Adrianza and Bobby Wilson comprising one-third of their lineup for an important Saturday night game in mid-May. But times like this are when you need your leaders to step up. Right now Dozier and Buxton keep falling down. Since moving to 8-5 with an extra-inning victory over Cleveland in Puerto Rico, the Twins have gone 11-18 over the past calendar month. They've been outscored by 31 runs. That's an extended run of performance suggesting this team just isn't very good, which is distressing at a time of such ripe opportunity. More than a dozen clubs are actively trying to tank. The Twins conversely have pushed their payroll past historical thresholds in an effort to contend, and they're coming up empty, being outpaced by acknowledged non-factors. The good news is there's a lot of season left. The ripeness of this opportunity won't go away too soon. Cleveland has yet to take off, and Minnesota still has plenty of games remaining against the division's dregs to help fuel a rapid climb. But before we can even re-enter discussions about their merits as a contender, the Twins actually must first prove they're a quality team. Right now it's very much in question, and urgency is building if they're to prove these aren't their true colors. It's time for the leaders to stop lagging and start leading. HIGHLIGHTS Because he endured such a prolonged slump to open the campaign, it's going to be a while before Logan Morrison's overall numbers broadcast on the Target Field scoreboard look any good. But over the past month he has quietly transformed into the powerful offensive infusion we all hoped he would be. Morrison's low point came in April's 16-inning marathon against the Indians, when he went 0-for-7 to drop his average to .068, his OPS to .271. The next game, in Tampa, brought the slugger's first home run as a Twin, and that sparked a healthy uptick. Since going hitless in Puerto Rico, Morrison is slashing .281/.385/.517 with five home runs and 15 RBIs in 27 games. Over the last week he went 6-for-17 and delivered key hits in both victories, a rare bright spot for this sputtering offense. (Of course, as things are going, even Morrison couldn't escape the infectious jinx plaguing the team; he was picked off at second after a leadoff double on Saturday night, an absolutely critical error.) Now that he's playing up to his ability, we can appreciate the 30-year-old's addition for the majorly impactful move it was by the front office. With Dozier dragging along, Sano absent, and now Mauer gone, Morrison's bat has been life-saving for the lineup. This is especially true when you consider Kennys Vargas, who'd have been counted on for the same role if not for LoMo's spring training sign-on, is batting .213 at Triple-A. LOWLIGHTS While Morrison has come around, another late-offseason free agent addition continues to flounder. What is the freaking deal with Lance Lynn?? After a horrendous month of April the veteran righty appeared to be finally getting on track with his first start of May, picking up his first win on six innings of two-run ball against the White Sox. Most notably, he issued zero walks and threw 73% strikes. But Lynn regressed in his next start, and further unraveled in his latest effort, lasting only three innings against St. Louis on Wednesday while issuing four walks and throwing only 46 of his egregious 82 pitches in the zone. There's a school of thought suggesting the starter's struggles can be attributed to his late start in spring training, and I was sympathetic to that notion for a time, but at this point it's out the window. We're now seven weeks into the season and Lynn has made eight starts. Plus, he came out of the gates firing in his first Grapefruit start, making it clear he was taking care of things on his end while waiting to sign a contract. It's possible, maybe even probable, that being thrown out of his routine contributed to Lynn stumbling out of the gates this year. But this no longer qualifies as a viable excuse. With each successive inexplicably erratic dud, it's becoming easier to see why he was forced to settle for a one-year contract in mid-March, despite his impressive career numbers. At least to some extent, the league saw this coming. Another thing that wasn't too hard to see coming: Jason Castro's absence, like those of so many Twins players to go down with injuries this season, extending beyond than the team's initial timeline. In this case, however, the news is especially bad: upon going under the knife last week, it was determined that Castro needed more extensive surgery than anticipated, and he'll miss the rest of the season. This is a bigger loss for the pitching staff than the lineup, but it's a painful one on that front. Castro brought excellent framing skills along with a good arm, and had developed trust and rapport with the staff. Now, the Twins are forced to rely on still-unproven Mitch Garver and 35-year-old minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson. Not a situation that inspires a lot of confidence. TRENDING STORYLINE It seems the best hope for the Twins right now is Sano returning to provide a serious jolt that electrifies this sleepwalking lineup. He's on the rehab trail, having played at Rochester on Saturday and Sunday. In those games, Sano went a combined 0-for-4 with three walks and two strikeouts. He committed an error on one of his three chances in the field. Rust is understandably a factor, particularly since Sano wasn't looking very sharp before the injury. But as long as that hamstring is sound, the Twins need to get him back in the fold ASAP to try and ignite something, anything, for the offense. It sounds like the plan is to take it slow with Sano, who will be in Triple-A at least through Wednesday. Ideally he'll show promising signs in LeHigh Valley early this week, then join the Twins in Seattle next weekend when they kick off a six-game road trip. Meanwhile, Trevor May is almost back. The righty stretched out to 58 pitches in a solid four-inning start at Rochester on Thursday. He'll likely work up to ~80 pitches this week and should basically be ready to start in the majors on May 28th, when he's eligible to come off the disabled list. Incidentally, that date (next Monday) coincides exactly with Lynn's turn in the rotation. DOWN ON THE FARM Things are happening in Cedar Rapids. While the most imminent wave of high-caliber young talent is either in the majors (Fernando Romero) or soon to arrive (Stephen Gonsalves, Nick Gordon), the slightly more distant group terrorizing the Midwest League should have Twins fans licking their chops. Right-hander Brusdar Graterol is the most exciting pitcher in the system right now and one of the most exciting in baseball. He dazzled everyone in attendance last Monday with 5 2/3 innings of shutout, two-hit ball. Unleashing numerous 100-MPH heaters, he racked up 10 strikeouts on 21 batters faced. In Twins Daily's profile on Graterol when we ranked him as the organization's No. 9 prospect before the season, Tom Froemming laid it out like this: "Graterol is one of the highest ceiling/lowest floor prospects in all of baseball, let alone the Twins’ system. He definitely has true ace potential, already possessing two plus pitches." We're seeing the ceiling early on from the 19-year-old flamethrower, and it is towering. We saw the floor a little bit in his fourth start on Sunday, when Graterol issued five walks in five innings, but nonetheless he has a 0.93 ERA and 27-to-6 K/BB ratio through 19 1/3 frames. On the same day of Graterol's 10-K masterpiece, Alex Kirilloff was firing up another big week at the plate with a two-hit game. He went on to collect 13 hits in 30 at-bats, and on the season he's batting .324 with seven home runs and a system-leading 34 RBI. Much like Graterol, Kirilloff is finding his stride quickly after losing major time to injury, quickly reaffirming his status as one of the farm's elite talents. LOOKING AHEAD We'll get our first look at Ron Gardenhire and the Tigers to start the week, then it's off to Seattle for late-night West Coast baseball on Memorial Day Weekend. Afterward, the Twins will head to Kansas City for three games before returning home to face Cleveland four times. That has the potential to be a pivotal mid-season series. Will the Twins be within striking distance by the time it arrives? Not if they keep playing the way they have. MONDAY, 5/21: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Blaine Hardy v. RHP Jose Berrios TUESDAY, 5/22: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Matthew Boyd v. RHP Lance Lynn WEDNESDAY, 5/23: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Fulmer v. RHP Kyle Gibson FRIDAY, 5/25: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Fernando Romero v. LHP James Paxton SATURDAY, 5/26: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. LHP Wade LeBlanc SUNDAY, 5/27: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Mike Leake Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 37 | SEA 1, MIN 0: Twins Get LeBlanc'edGame 38 | MIN 4, STL 1: Berrios is BackGame 39 | STL 7, MIN 5: Lynn with a Dud AgainGame 40 | MIL 8, MIN 3: Gibson Falters, Mauer Exits Due to Neck InjuryGame 41 | MIL 5, MIN 4: Jake Cave Homers in MLB DebutGame 42 | MIN 3, MIL 1: Odorizzi Ks 10, LoMo Delivers Go-Ahead HitMore on Twins Daily Tickets are available now for our "Picnic with the Saints" event, coming up on June 8th. It's an excellent value and a perfect outing for the family. Make sure to sign up before we sell out!Jamie Cameron looked at the evolution of Jose Berrios, highlighting the many adaptations and alterations he's made along the way.Twins Daily user and orthopaedic surgeon Heezy1323 shared some helpful information on knee surgeries and what may have happened with Castro. Click here to view the article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/14 through Sun, 5/20 *** Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 19-23) Run Differential Last Week: -4 (Overall: -21) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (2.5 GB) Before we dive into the usual highlights, lowlights, storylines and minor-league updates, let's just get this out there: the Twins are in disarray, and it is the guys who are supposed to be leading that are in fact dragging them down. Prior to the season, my bold and optimistic prediction was that Dozier and Buxton would both be Top 5 finishers in the American League MVP voting: https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/978109572304048128 Call it homerish or pollyannaish if you please, but the take wasn't without solid founding. Dozier and Buxton were among the league's most impactful players in the latter portion of 2017, each earning down-ballot MVP votes. This year, circumstances favored big seasons for both: Dozier in a walk year staring down free agency; Buxton with 1,000 MLB plate appearances in the bank, appearing to have legitimately turned a corner with his approach. Instead, both players have fallen back into their most frustrating patterns at the plate – Dozier skidding through lengthy stretches of unproductivity with an exploitable swing, Buxton resembling an overwhelmed A-baller trying to fend off peak Pedro Martinez in pretty much every AB. Over the past week, the two combined to go 3-for-37 with 13 strikeouts. Dozier is batting .175 in 26 games since the start of the Yankees series. Buxton's OPS is teetering around .400. Meanwhile, other top contributors from 2017 who were hoped to be integral cogs in a contending effort – Miguel Sano, Ervin Santana, Jorge Polanco – have been either mostly or entirely absent. And now another is sidelined with Joe Mauer hitting the disabled list this week following an ominous return of concussion symptoms. Granted, you can't plan for all the injuries and attrition; I'm sure no one foresaw the Twins with Jake Cave, Ehire Adrianza and Bobby Wilson comprising one-third of their lineup for an important Saturday night game in mid-May. But times like this are when you need your leaders to step up. Right now Dozier and Buxton keep falling down. Since moving to 8-5 with an extra-inning victory over Cleveland in Puerto Rico, the Twins have gone 11-18 over the past calendar month. They've been outscored by 31 runs. That's an extended run of performance suggesting this team just isn't very good, which is distressing at a time of such ripe opportunity. More than a dozen clubs are actively trying to tank. The Twins conversely have pushed their payroll past historical thresholds in an effort to contend, and they're coming up empty, being outpaced by acknowledged non-factors. The good news is there's a lot of season left. The ripeness of this opportunity won't go away too soon. Cleveland has yet to take off, and Minnesota still has plenty of games remaining against the division's dregs to help fuel a rapid climb. But before we can even re-enter discussions about their merits as a contender, the Twins actually must first prove they're a quality team. Right now it's very much in question, and urgency is building if they're to prove these aren't their true colors. It's time for the leaders to stop lagging and start leading. HIGHLIGHTS Because he endured such a prolonged slump to open the campaign, it's going to be a while before Logan Morrison's overall numbers broadcast on the Target Field scoreboard look any good. But over the past month he has quietly transformed into the powerful offensive infusion we all hoped he would be. Morrison's low point came in April's 16-inning marathon against the Indians, when he went 0-for-7 to drop his average to .068, his OPS to .271. The next game, in Tampa, brought the slugger's first home run as a Twin, and that sparked a healthy uptick. Since going hitless in Puerto Rico, Morrison is slashing .281/.385/.517 with five home runs and 15 RBIs in 27 games. Over the last week he went 6-for-17 and delivered key hits in both victories, a rare bright spot for this sputtering offense. (Of course, as things are going, even Morrison couldn't escape the infectious jinx plaguing the team; he was picked off at second after a leadoff double on Saturday night, an absolutely critical error.) Now that he's playing up to his ability, we can appreciate the 30-year-old's addition for the majorly impactful move it was by the front office. With Dozier dragging along, Sano absent, and now Mauer gone, Morrison's bat has been life-saving for the lineup. This is especially true when you consider Kennys Vargas, who'd have been counted on for the same role if not for LoMo's spring training sign-on, is batting .213 at Triple-A. LOWLIGHTS While Morrison has come around, another late-offseason free agent addition continues to flounder. What is the freaking deal with Lance Lynn?? After a horrendous month of April the veteran righty appeared to be finally getting on track with his first start of May, picking up his first win on six innings of two-run ball against the White Sox. Most notably, he issued zero walks and threw 73% strikes. But Lynn regressed in his next start, and further unraveled in his latest effort, lasting only three innings against St. Louis on Wednesday while issuing four walks and throwing only 46 of his egregious 82 pitches in the zone. There's a school of thought suggesting the starter's struggles can be attributed to his late start in spring training, and I was sympathetic to that notion for a time, but at this point it's out the window. We're now seven weeks into the season and Lynn has made eight starts. Plus, he came out of the gates firing in his first Grapefruit start, making it clear he was taking care of things on his end while waiting to sign a contract. It's possible, maybe even probable, that being thrown out of his routine contributed to Lynn stumbling out of the gates this year. But this no longer qualifies as a viable excuse. With each successive inexplicably erratic dud, it's becoming easier to see why he was forced to settle for a one-year contract in mid-March, despite his impressive career numbers. At least to some extent, the league saw this coming. Another thing that wasn't too hard to see coming: Jason Castro's absence, like those of so many Twins players to go down with injuries this season, extending beyond than the team's initial timeline. In this case, however, the news is especially bad: upon going under the knife last week, it was determined that Castro needed more extensive surgery than anticipated, and he'll miss the rest of the season. This is a bigger loss for the pitching staff than the lineup, but it's a painful one on that front. Castro brought excellent framing skills along with a good arm, and had developed trust and rapport with the staff. Now, the Twins are forced to rely on still-unproven Mitch Garver and 35-year-old minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson. Not a situation that inspires a lot of confidence. TRENDING STORYLINE It seems the best hope for the Twins right now is Sano returning to provide a serious jolt that electrifies this sleepwalking lineup. He's on the rehab trail, having played at Rochester on Saturday and Sunday. In those games, Sano went a combined 0-for-4 with three walks and two strikeouts. He committed an error on one of his three chances in the field. Rust is understandably a factor, particularly since Sano wasn't looking very sharp before the injury. But as long as that hamstring is sound, the Twins need to get him back in the fold ASAP to try and ignite something, anything, for the offense. It sounds like the plan is to take it slow with Sano, who will be in Triple-A at least through Wednesday. Ideally he'll show promising signs in LeHigh Valley early this week, then join the Twins in Seattle next weekend when they kick off a six-game road trip. Meanwhile, Trevor May is almost back. The righty stretched out to 58 pitches in a solid four-inning start at Rochester on Thursday. He'll likely work up to ~80 pitches this week and should basically be ready to start in the majors on May 28th, when he's eligible to come off the disabled list. Incidentally, that date (next Monday) coincides exactly with Lynn's turn in the rotation. DOWN ON THE FARM Things are happening in Cedar Rapids. While the most imminent wave of high-caliber young talent is either in the majors (Fernando Romero) or soon to arrive (Stephen Gonsalves, Nick Gordon), the slightly more distant group terrorizing the Midwest League should have Twins fans licking their chops. Right-hander Brusdar Graterol is the most exciting pitcher in the system right now and one of the most exciting in baseball. He dazzled everyone in attendance last Monday with 5 2/3 innings of shutout, two-hit ball. Unleashing numerous 100-MPH heaters, he racked up 10 strikeouts on 21 batters faced. In Twins Daily's profile on Graterol when we ranked him as the organization's No. 9 prospect before the season, Tom Froemming laid it out like this: "Graterol is one of the highest ceiling/lowest floor prospects in all of baseball, let alone the Twins’ system. He definitely has true ace potential, already possessing two plus pitches." We're seeing the ceiling early on from the 19-year-old flamethrower, and it is towering. We saw the floor a little bit in his fourth start on Sunday, when Graterol issued five walks in five innings, but nonetheless he has a 0.93 ERA and 27-to-6 K/BB ratio through 19 1/3 frames. On the same day of Graterol's 10-K masterpiece, Alex Kirilloff was firing up another big week at the plate with a two-hit game. He went on to collect 13 hits in 30 at-bats, and on the season he's batting .324 with seven home runs and a system-leading 34 RBI. Much like Graterol, Kirilloff is finding his stride quickly after losing major time to injury, quickly reaffirming his status as one of the farm's elite talents. LOOKING AHEAD We'll get our first look at Ron Gardenhire and the Tigers to start the week, then it's off to Seattle for late-night West Coast baseball on Memorial Day Weekend. Afterward, the Twins will head to Kansas City for three games before returning home to face Cleveland four times. That has the potential to be a pivotal mid-season series. Will the Twins be within striking distance by the time it arrives? Not if they keep playing the way they have. MONDAY, 5/21: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Blaine Hardy v. RHP Jose Berrios TUESDAY, 5/22: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Matthew Boyd v. RHP Lance Lynn WEDNESDAY, 5/23: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Fulmer v. RHP Kyle Gibson FRIDAY, 5/25: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Fernando Romero v. LHP James Paxton SATURDAY, 5/26: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. LHP Wade LeBlanc SUNDAY, 5/27: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Mike Leake Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 37 | SEA 1, MIN 0: Twins Get LeBlanc'ed Game 38 | MIN 4, STL 1: Berrios is Back Game 39 | STL 7, MIN 5: Lynn with a Dud Again Game 40 | MIL 8, MIN 3: Gibson Falters, Mauer Exits Due to Neck Injury Game 41 | MIL 5, MIN 4: Jake Cave Homers in MLB Debut Game 42 | MIN 3, MIL 1: Odorizzi Ks 10, LoMo Delivers Go-Ahead Hit More on Twins Daily Tickets are available now for our "Picnic with the Saints" event, coming up on June 8th. It's an excellent value and a perfect outing for the family. Make sure to sign up before we sell out! Jamie Cameron looked at the evolution of Jose Berrios, highlighting the many adaptations and alterations he's made along the way. Twins Daily user and orthopaedic surgeon Heezy1323 shared some helpful information on knee surgeries and what may have happened with Castro.
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Another great piece. Thanks for sharing your insights!
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That the Twins are playing mediocre baseball here in the early portion of the season is disappointing, but not entirely surprising. We knew this was still a young club on the rise, not a bona fide contender. Slumps and downspells are to be expected. But it was the pitching staff that figured to take lumps. A lineup stacked with established hitters and solid depth seemed to be the least of Paul Molitor's worries. And yet, as the Twins have fallen back into a listless spell after being revived by a five-game winning streak, it is the bats that are lagging and languishing.For a time, scorching hot streaks from Eduardo Escobar and Eddie Rosario served to cover up for an offense that was just never really clicking. The Twins scored at least four runs in each of their first 11 games in May but never more than eight. We still haven't seen a double-digit run total all year. The anticipated explosiveness hasn't been there for this unit. A team that led the American League in scoring down the stretch last season entered play on Tuesday ranked 10th in runs/game and 12th in OPS. While the AL's prime contenders are doing their things – New York, Boston, Los Angeles and Cleveland rank first through fourth in R/G – the Twins offense has sputtered, showing only sporadic flashes of its dazzling upside. What's to be done? Well, to a large extent, all we can do is wait. If this group is gonna turn around it will be because Brian Dozier discovers his next gear, and Miguel Sano comes back to mash, and Joe Mauer finds some semblance of power, and Byron Buxton snaps out of his typical early-season funk, and Eddie Rosario settles into a sustainable approach at the plate. History tells us at least some of these things will happen. But as the Central continues to look eminently winnable, patience is starting to wear thin. At some point the Twins need to take action in an effort to jolt this offense awake. Here are a few options they could consider. Note that I'm not endorsing all of these solutions, only suggesting they should be on the table. Call Up Nick Gordon and LaMonte Wade from Class-AA Chattanooga The Twins pitching staff was in a freefall before Fernando Romero arrived on May 2nd and propelled the team to a shutout victory, snapping a losing streak and sparking a 7-1 run. Since then, the rotation and bullpen have both had a noticeably renewed swagger, and results have reflected it. It's not a simple cause-and-effect, but there is something to be said about the contagious energy that a talented and highly motivated young talent can infuse. Granted, Romero was in Triple-A and not Double-A, but the argument can easily be made that Gordon and Wade should've started in Rochester as well. At Chattanooga, 22-year-old shortstop Gordon entered play Tuesday slashing .350/.392/.526 while the 24-year-old outfielder Wade was at .300/.401/.442. Both prospects need to be added to the 40-man roster, complicating matters, but each offers something the Twins could really use. Gordon brings sneaky power from a wiry athletic frame and would represent a big upgrade over the scuffling Ehire Adrianza (whose play has arguably earned him a DFA). Wade is one of the most disciplined hitters in the system and has consistently been a .400 OBP guy in the minors. These are the two most MLB-ready hitting prospects in the high minors, and each has been making his case since spring training, where Gordon batted .417 and Wade had a .441 OBP. Option Byron Buxton to Triple-A As much as Molitor – and all of us, really – would love to believe otherwise, it's clear that Buxton is not a naturally adept hitter who can quickly acclimate and get rolling at the plate. Not at this stage of his career anyway. Despite his tremendous finish in 2017, the center fielder once again came out of the gates flat this season. Then he had a bout with migraines. Then he broke his toe. Now, the Twins have curiously activated him directly from the disabled list, so he can try and play with a bum digit and a month's worth of rust. I guess we shouldn't be surprised by the outcome. Since returning, Buxton has been at his worst offensively, which is an exceedingly low bar. In five games, he is 2-for-16 with six strikeouts. The two hits, while both big, came in the form of a bloop double off the end of the bat and a bunt single that traveled five feet. Even with a bad toe, Buxton's defense is irreplaceable, and he's probably just as well trying to solve his hitting woes against MLB pitching. But if you're looking to quickly jump-start the lineup, there's no more obvious candidate for removal. He has been an almost automatic out. To replace him, you could call up Wade and shift Rosario or Max Kepler to center. Or you could call up Ryan LaMarre or Jake Cave or Zack Granite from Rochester as short-term plugs. Acquire a Catcher Jason Castro underwent surgery on Tuesday and is expected to miss 4-for-6 weeks (or, as this team's estimations have gone, 8-to-12). Mitch Garver and Bobby Wilson don't present the kind of catcher duo that inspires huge confidence offensively. It is obviously slim pickings out there among the remaining free agents. Carlos Ruiz is 39 and put up a .665 OPS in 53 games with Seattle last year. He went unsigned during the offseason despite expressing an interest in continuing to play. If he's stayed in shape he might be worth a flier. Geovany Soto, 35, is also still out there. Neither of these guys are enticing options, and they'd also take time to ramp up, potentially pushing an arrival close to Castro's return. But it's no given that Castro will be able to come back strong; he's nine years older than a spry young Mauer whose rookie season at catcher was ruined by a torn knee meniscus. * UPDATE: The Twins announced on Wednesday that Castro will miss the rest of the season after his surgery proved more extensive than expected. Go figure. * This is where the organization's lack of high-level catching depth is quickly becoming an issue, which isn't entire surprising. It wouldn't hurt to add someone capable, even if that means giving up a bit in trade. Considering that two-thirds of the league are in blatant tanking mode, it shouldn't be all that hard to find a seller. Shake Up the Batting Order Get weird. Try Kepler in the leadoff spot. Move Dozier to cleanup. Escobar in the two-hole. Whatever. Perhaps a different type of sequencing or dynamic will stir something up. It couldn't really hurt at this point. I'd like to hear some other ideas. What would you do to inject life into a Twins offense that simply isn't getting it done? Click here to view the article
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For a time, scorching hot streaks from Eduardo Escobar and Eddie Rosario served to cover up for an offense that was just never really clicking. The Twins scored at least four runs in each of their first 11 games in May but never more than eight. We still haven't seen a double-digit run total all year. The anticipated explosiveness hasn't been there for this unit. A team that led the American League in scoring down the stretch last season entered play on Tuesday ranked 10th in runs/game and 12th in OPS. While the AL's prime contenders are doing their things – New York, Boston, Los Angeles and Cleveland rank first through fourth in R/G – the Twins offense has sputtered, showing only sporadic flashes of its dazzling upside. What's to be done? Well, to a large extent, all we can do is wait. If this group is gonna turn around it will be because Brian Dozier discovers his next gear, and Miguel Sano comes back to mash, and Joe Mauer finds some semblance of power, and Byron Buxton snaps out of his typical early-season funk, and Eddie Rosario settles into a sustainable approach at the plate. History tells us at least some of these things will happen. But as the Central continues to look eminently winnable, patience is starting to wear thin. At some point the Twins need to take action in an effort to jolt this offense awake. Here are a few options they could consider. Note that I'm not endorsing all of these solutions, only suggesting they should be on the table. Call Up Nick Gordon and LaMonte Wade from Class-AA Chattanooga The Twins pitching staff was in a freefall before Fernando Romero arrived on May 2nd and propelled the team to a shutout victory, snapping a losing streak and sparking a 7-1 run. Since then, the rotation and bullpen have both had a noticeably renewed swagger, and results have reflected it. It's not a simple cause-and-effect, but there is something to be said about the contagious energy that a talented and highly motivated young talent can infuse. Granted, Romero was in Triple-A and not Double-A, but the argument can easily be made that Gordon and Wade should've started in Rochester as well. At Chattanooga, 22-year-old shortstop Gordon entered play Tuesday slashing .350/.392/.526 while the 24-year-old outfielder Wade was at .300/.401/.442. Both prospects need to be added to the 40-man roster, complicating matters, but each offers something the Twins could really use. Gordon brings sneaky power from a wiry athletic frame and would represent a big upgrade over the scuffling Ehire Adrianza (whose play has arguably earned him a DFA). Wade is one of the most disciplined hitters in the system and has consistently been a .400 OBP guy in the minors. These are the two most MLB-ready hitting prospects in the high minors, and each has been making his case since spring training, where Gordon batted .417 and Wade had a .441 OBP. Option Byron Buxton to Triple-A As much as Molitor – and all of us, really – would love to believe otherwise, it's clear that Buxton is not a naturally adept hitter who can quickly acclimate and get rolling at the plate. Not at this stage of his career anyway. Despite his tremendous finish in 2017, the center fielder once again came out of the gates flat this season. Then he had a bout with migraines. Then he broke his toe. Now, the Twins have curiously activated him directly from the disabled list, so he can try and play with a bum digit and a month's worth of rust. I guess we shouldn't be surprised by the outcome. Since returning, Buxton has been at his worst offensively, which is an exceedingly low bar. In five games, he is 2-for-16 with six strikeouts. The two hits, while both big, came in the form of a bloop double off the end of the bat and a bunt single that traveled five feet. Even with a bad toe, Buxton's defense is irreplaceable, and he's probably just as well trying to solve his hitting woes against MLB pitching. But if you're looking to quickly jump-start the lineup, there's no more obvious candidate for removal. He has been an almost automatic out. To replace him, you could call up Wade and shift Rosario or Max Kepler to center. Or you could call up Ryan LaMarre or Jake Cave or Zack Granite from Rochester as short-term plugs. Acquire a Catcher Jason Castro underwent surgery on Tuesday and is expected to miss 4-for-6 weeks (or, as this team's estimations have gone, 8-to-12). Mitch Garver and Bobby Wilson don't present the kind of catcher duo that inspires huge confidence offensively. It is obviously slim pickings out there among the remaining free agents. Carlos Ruiz is 39 and put up a .665 OPS in 53 games with Seattle last year. He went unsigned during the offseason despite expressing an interest in continuing to play. If he's stayed in shape he might be worth a flier. Geovany Soto, 35, is also still out there. Neither of these guys are enticing options, and they'd also take time to ramp up, potentially pushing an arrival close to Castro's return. But it's no given that Castro will be able to come back strong; he's nine years older than a spry young Mauer whose rookie season at catcher was ruined by a torn knee meniscus. * UPDATE: The Twins announced on Wednesday that Castro will miss the rest of the season after his surgery proved more extensive than expected. Go figure. * This is where the organization's lack of high-level catching depth is quickly becoming an issue, which isn't entire surprising. It wouldn't hurt to add someone capable, even if that means giving up a bit in trade. Considering that two-thirds of the league are in blatant tanking mode, it shouldn't be all that hard to find a seller. Shake Up the Batting Order Get weird. Try Kepler in the leadoff spot. Move Dozier to cleanup. Escobar in the two-hole. Whatever. Perhaps a different type of sequencing or dynamic will stir something up. It couldn't really hurt at this point. I'd like to hear some other ideas. What would you do to inject life into a Twins offense that simply isn't getting it done?
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Article: Week in Review: Back in the Swing
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, the money owed becomes doubly restraining if they're letting it compel them to waste a roster spot on him indefinitely. Hughes has thrown 8 pitches in the last 9 days; meanwhile Hildenberger and Duke both appeared in three straight games during the Angels series. Would've really been nice to have a Busenitz around on Sunday.- 7 replies
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Article: Week in Review: Back in the Swing
Nick Nelson posted a topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins thoroughly dismantled the Cardinals during a two-game sweep in St. Louis, then headed out west and earned a hard-fought road split in Anaheim. With their winning week, Minnesota will carry some momentum back to Target Field for a nine-game homestand. Read on for a recap of highlights, lowlights, key updates, and noteworthy developments in the minors. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/7 through Sun, 5/13 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 17-19) Run Differential Last Week: +11 (Overall: -17) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS Well, Fernando Romero finally allowed his first run as a Twin. But it came in the fifth inning of another sterling performance, in which he went toe-to-toe with fellow rookie Shohei Ohtani (whom Logan Morrison dubbed "probably the best player in the world"), and remains the only one that Romero has surrendered in 16 2/3 innings since his promotion. The 23-year-old made two starts over the past week and continued to show signs of becoming a rotation mainstay, with his formidable arsenal racking up 15 more strikeouts in 11 frames. Over three starts, Romero has yielded only 11 hits – eight of them singles. He has issued three walks in each turn and hasn't been terribly efficient, but that's really the only quibble one can muster with regards to Romero's spectacular arrival in the big leagues. This kid is the real deal. Also: Stay hot, Eddie Rosario! After a big series in St. Louis (4-for-10 with two doubles), Rosario went hitless on Thursday for just the second time in two weeks. He followed with two home runs on Friday, the second of which sparked a big ninth-inning comeback. With an elite .559 slugging percentage through 36 games, Rosario's sneaky power has been on display once again here in 2018. Heading into the season, it seemed as though sustaining his offensive dominance would be reliant on continuing his positive K/BB trends, but instead Eddie's been in vintage swing-at-everything mode. He hasn't drawn a walk in May but is batting .385 with an .846 slugging percentage. The man is simply locked in, and finding something he can drive in almost every at-bat. Eventually he'll cool off and stop obliterating every pitch he fancies. At that point we'll find out if Rosario can re-incorporate some of the disciplinary improvements we saw in the latter portion of 2017. Swinging at more than 40% of pitches outside the zone just won't cut it long-term. But for now, I'm gonna enjoy the hell out of the ride. Meanwhile, it's nice to see Minnesota's bullpen settling in after a brutal stretch as the team slumped in April. True, Zack Duke gave up the walk-off hit on Sunday while pitching in a third straight game, but he generally seems to be past his early struggles. Sunday's appearance marked the first in which he's been charged with an earned run since April 7th. He has also allowed only two walks in his past 10 trips to the mound. Trevor Hildenberger has righted the ship after raising some concerns in April. His lone blemish of the week was a bomb off the bat of Ohtani – hey, it happens – but the right-hander was otherwise nearly flawless in four appearances. He issued two walks on Saturday night, but both were intentional – a tactical gambit by Paul Molitor in extra innings that worked out. Addison Reed worked three scoreless innings in Anaheim. Ryan Pressly added six more strikeouts in his four appearances; he now sports a 1.61 ERA and 32.6% K-rate this year. Fernando Rodney converted both his save chances against the Angels and hasn't allowed a run in seven appearances since the ninth-inning meltdown in New York. Even 28-year-old journeyman Matt Magill is cruising (four scoreless innings last week) and looks legitimately intriguing. The Minnesota bullpen is currently firing on all cylinders. That's a relief. LOWLIGHTS Through his first four starts, Jose Berrios could not have been pitching any better. His control was impeccable. His pitches flashed incredible life. Hitters were consistently either whiffing or making meager contact. Three of his starts were epic gems, the other a somewhat unlucky clunker. Since then, the right-hander has been nothing short of disastrous, and the mess unfortunately spilled over into this week against the Angels. Berrios fell to 3-4 on Thursday with another gravely disappointing performance, coughing up five runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings. It marked the fourth consecutive start in which Berrios allowed 4+ ER. Last year he never did so more than twice in a row (and only seven times total). Berrios also struck out only two hitters on Thursday – the third straight outing in which he failed to register even three Ks. Last year he struck out fewer than three hitters only three times total in 25 starts with the Twins. The velocity and spin rates haven't really dropped off, which is mildly encouraging, but at this point it's clear that either something is physically wrong with Berrios, or his mechanics and/or mental approach are out of whack. Hopefully it's the latter, and pitching coach Garvin Alston can help the righty find himself again. This is purely speculative, but worth noting: On April 18th, Berrios threw his heart out over seven innings against Cleveland in Puerto Rico, a game with tremendous personal significance to him. He hasn't been the same since. On the same night of Berrios' latest dud, Byron Buxton made his long-awaited return to the field. While the team's eagerness to get Buck back in the fold was understandable, activating him with no rehab stint after a month-long layoff was a dubious decision, and one that has looked ill-advised early on. Buxton's plate approach was not particularly good before the lengthy absence, and has been completely broken since his return. He went 1-for-11 with five strikeouts during his three games in Anaheim, and while his RBI double in the third inning on Saturday was big, it wasn't exactly a great piece of hitting. I can't get overly worked up about Buxton's lagging bat, since we've seen him figure things out deeper into the season on multiple occasions (and he still does things like this), but the dream of a full-fledged MVP-caliber campaign is disappearing. I'd settle for another all-around dominant second half, but it's tough to see this coming to fruition before his fractured toe – clearly sapping away some of his speed – completely heals. Will that happen as he continues to play through the injury? TRENDING STORYLINE On Saturday, Trevor May made his first official regular-season appearance since September of 2016, a rehab start with Ft. Myers against Toronto's Single-A affiliate. He understandably had some challenges with control, throwing only 30 of 58 pitches for strikes and issuing three walks over three innings. However, he also struck out five and allowed only a single, reportedly touching 93 with his fastball. May was beaming the next morning: That'll bring Lewis one step closer to the majors, but he's still got a ways to go. In Rochester, MLB-ready starting pitching depth is solidifying. Stephen Gonsalves got knocked around in his third turn at Triple-A but that doesn't take the luster off his supremely impressive first two starts with the Red Wings. Meanwhile, Zack Littell has been brilliant in two starts since joining Rochester, allowing one run on four hits over 12 innings with 14 strikeouts. Aaron Slegers is also excelling with a 2.41 ERA and 1.02 WHIP; he tossed seven innings of one-run ball in his latest turn on Tuesday. The Twins are brimming with pitching reinforcements, at a time where they suddenly have little need. Of course, we all know that won't last forever. Speaking of Rochester reinforcements, Alan Busenitz is making a hell of a case for a recall. Since his demotion in late April, Busenitz has allowed no runs and only six hits (all singles) over 7 1/3 innings. He has struck out 13 and walked two. Domination. The thing is, right now nobody in the Minnesota bullpen is a candidate for removal. It's a little strange to see a Twins pitching staff functioning so well that plainly deserving players are being kept out, but certainly speaks well to the direction Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have this thing moving. On a down note, we learned this week that 19-year-old shortstop Wander Javier, Twins Daily's No. 6 prospect, would require season-ending surgery for a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. It's a tough setback for a tremendous athlete who appeared poised for a big year. The good news, I guess, is that the Twins have some middle-infield depth in their system with Lewis and Nick Gordon, who is batting .346 at Chattanooga. Javier should be fully recovered by next spring, at which point he'll still only be 20 years old. Twins Daily member Heezy1323, an orthopaedic surgeon who regularly shares illuminating medical insights here on the site, wrote up an excellent article detailing the specifics of Javier's injury and surgery. LOOKING AHEAD The Mariners return for a day to make up a washed-out game from early April, and then the Twins get to try and replicate last week's whupping of the Cards in their home park. The coming weekend should be a fun one, with the Milwaukee Brewers – and, undoubtedly, hundreds of Wisconsinites – heading to Target Field for a border battle showdown. MONDAY, 5/14: MARINERS @ TWINS – LHP Wade LeBlanc v. RHP Jake Odorizzi TUESDAY, 5/15: CARDINALS @ TWINS – RHP Jack Flaherty v. RHP Jose Berrios WEDNESDAY, 5/16: CARDINALS @ TWINS – RHP Miles Mikolas v. RHP Lance Lynn FRIDAY, 5/18: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Chase Anderson v. RHP Kyle Gibson SATURDAY, 5/19: BREWERS @ TWINS – LHP Brent Suter v. RHP Fernando Romero SUNDAY, 5/20: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Junior Guerra v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 31 | MIN 6, STL 0: Fernand0 R0mer0!!!!Game 32 | MIN 7, STL 1: Five AliveGame 33 | LAA 7, MIN 4: What’s Up With Berrios?Game 34 | MIN 5, LAA 4: Rally RosieGame 35 | MIN 5, LAA 3: Twins Outlast Angels in Gutsy VictoryGame 36 | LAA 2, MIN 1: Ohtani Excellent as Angels Walk Off TwinsMore on Twins Daily Sunday's anticipated matchup between Romero and Ohtani lived up to its billing, with the two rookies dueling admirably. Prior to the game, Cody Christie took a look at some similarities in the recipes these 23-year-olds have utilized to stymy MLB hitters.Speaking of recipes, Ted Schwerzler pointed out that Brian Dozier has been relying on a new one in the early going this season.Kevin Luckow, who will be providing some St. Paul Saints coverage on TD this summer, published a review of For the Love of the Game, a new documentary telling the independent minor-league team's story. Good read.Acknowledging the obvious – that the AL Central is going to be a two-team race – I posed a question for discussion: How good is Cleveland, really? Click here to view the article- 7 replies
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/7 through Sun, 5/13 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 17-19) Run Differential Last Week: +11 (Overall: -17) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS Well, Fernando Romero finally allowed his first run as a Twin. But it came in the fifth inning of another sterling performance, in which he went toe-to-toe with fellow rookie Shohei Ohtani (whom Logan Morrison dubbed "probably the best player in the world"), and remains the only one that Romero has surrendered in 16 2/3 innings since his promotion. The 23-year-old made two starts over the past week and continued to show signs of becoming a rotation mainstay, with his formidable arsenal racking up 15 more strikeouts in 11 frames. Over three starts, Romero has yielded only 11 hits – eight of them singles. He has issued three walks in each turn and hasn't been terribly efficient, but that's really the only quibble one can muster with regards to Romero's spectacular arrival in the big leagues. This kid is the real deal. Also: Stay hot, Eddie Rosario! After a big series in St. Louis (4-for-10 with two doubles), Rosario went hitless on Thursday for just the second time in two weeks. He followed with two home runs on Friday, the second of which sparked a big ninth-inning comeback. With an elite .559 slugging percentage through 36 games, Rosario's sneaky power has been on display once again here in 2018. Heading into the season, it seemed as though sustaining his offensive dominance would be reliant on continuing his positive K/BB trends, but instead Eddie's been in vintage swing-at-everything mode. He hasn't drawn a walk in May but is batting .385 with an .846 slugging percentage. The man is simply locked in, and finding something he can drive in almost every at-bat. Eventually he'll cool off and stop obliterating every pitch he fancies. At that point we'll find out if Rosario can re-incorporate some of the disciplinary improvements we saw in the latter portion of 2017. Swinging at more than 40% of pitches outside the zone just won't cut it long-term. But for now, I'm gonna enjoy the hell out of the ride. Meanwhile, it's nice to see Minnesota's bullpen settling in after a brutal stretch as the team slumped in April. True, Zack Duke gave up the walk-off hit on Sunday while pitching in a third straight game, but he generally seems to be past his early struggles. Sunday's appearance marked the first in which he's been charged with an earned run since April 7th. He has also allowed only two walks in his past 10 trips to the mound. Trevor Hildenberger has righted the ship after raising some concerns in April. His lone blemish of the week was a bomb off the bat of Ohtani – hey, it happens – but the right-hander was otherwise nearly flawless in four appearances. He issued two walks on Saturday night, but both were intentional – a tactical gambit by Paul Molitor in extra innings that worked out. Addison Reed worked three scoreless innings in Anaheim. Ryan Pressly added six more strikeouts in his four appearances; he now sports a 1.61 ERA and 32.6% K-rate this year. Fernando Rodney converted both his save chances against the Angels and hasn't allowed a run in seven appearances since the ninth-inning meltdown in New York. Even 28-year-old journeyman Matt Magill is cruising (four scoreless innings last week) and looks legitimately intriguing. The Minnesota bullpen is currently firing on all cylinders. That's a relief. LOWLIGHTS Through his first four starts, Jose Berrios could not have been pitching any better. His control was impeccable. His pitches flashed incredible life. Hitters were consistently either whiffing or making meager contact. Three of his starts were epic gems, the other a somewhat unlucky clunker. Since then, the right-hander has been nothing short of disastrous, and the mess unfortunately spilled over into this week against the Angels. Berrios fell to 3-4 on Thursday with another gravely disappointing performance, coughing up five runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings. It marked the fourth consecutive start in which Berrios allowed 4+ ER. Last year he never did so more than twice in a row (and only seven times total). Berrios also struck out only two hitters on Thursday – the third straight outing in which he failed to register even three Ks. Last year he struck out fewer than three hitters only three times total in 25 starts with the Twins. The velocity and spin rates haven't really dropped off, which is mildly encouraging, but at this point it's clear that either something is physically wrong with Berrios, or his mechanics and/or mental approach are out of whack. Hopefully it's the latter, and pitching coach Garvin Alston can help the righty find himself again. This is purely speculative, but worth noting: On April 18th, Berrios threw his heart out over seven innings against Cleveland in Puerto Rico, a game with tremendous personal significance to him. He hasn't been the same since. On the same night of Berrios' latest dud, Byron Buxton made his long-awaited return to the field. While the team's eagerness to get Buck back in the fold was understandable, activating him with no rehab stint after a month-long layoff was a dubious decision, and one that has looked ill-advised early on. Buxton's plate approach was not particularly good before the lengthy absence, and has been completely broken since his return. He went 1-for-11 with five strikeouts during his three games in Anaheim, and while his RBI double in the third inning on Saturday was big, it wasn't exactly a great piece of hitting. I can't get overly worked up about Buxton's lagging bat, since we've seen him figure things out deeper into the season on multiple occasions (and he still does things like this), but the dream of a full-fledged MVP-caliber campaign is disappearing. I'd settle for another all-around dominant second half, but it's tough to see this coming to fruition before his fractured toe – clearly sapping away some of his speed – completely heals. Will that happen as he continues to play through the injury? TRENDING STORYLINE On Saturday, Trevor May made his first official regular-season appearance since September of 2016, a rehab start with Ft. Myers against Toronto's Single-A affiliate. He understandably had some challenges with control, throwing only 30 of 58 pitches for strikes and issuing three walks over three innings. However, he also struck out five and allowed only a single, reportedly touching 93 with his fastball. May was beaming the next morning: https://twitter.com/trevmay65/status/995677753788813312 With his arm appearing to be in very good shape, May is now on a clear path back toward the major-league roster. Many have wondered what'll happen when Ervin Santana returns to the fold, but he's not slated to make his first rehab start until May 26th so May figures to force a decision much sooner. He is eligible to come off the 60-day disabled list on May 28th, and is now on track to be very close, if not ready to roll, by that date. What will the Twins do with him? May has an option, so sending him to Triple-A (or leaving him there, assuming his rehab stint takes him to Rochester) would be in play. It might be the most likely course of action. But he was flashing some of the best stuff on the staff before going down last spring, and his season debut on Saturday was very encouraging. Chances are they'll want him back on the MLB roster soon after he's ready. Will it be as a starter or reliever? DOWN ON THE FARM Plenty of people expected Royce Lewis to receive a bump to High-A around the minor-league All Star break, which arrives shortly after he turns 19 in June. But the young wonder is forcing the issue. Lewis' bat has gone into hyperdrive here in May, where he's batting .395 for the Kernels. So I guess it's not too surprising that Jeff Johnson, a Cedar Rapids based sportswriter who's plugged into the team, tweeted over the weekend that he hears rumblings of a promotion being imminent for the No. 1 Twins prospect: https://twitter.com/jeje66/status/995401526964293632 That'll bring Lewis one step closer to the majors, but he's still got a ways to go. In Rochester, MLB-ready starting pitching depth is solidifying. Stephen Gonsalves got knocked around in his third turn at Triple-A but that doesn't take the luster off his supremely impressive first two starts with the Red Wings. Meanwhile, Zack Littell has been brilliant in two starts since joining Rochester, allowing one run on four hits over 12 innings with 14 strikeouts. Aaron Slegers is also excelling with a 2.41 ERA and 1.02 WHIP; he tossed seven innings of one-run ball in his latest turn on Tuesday. The Twins are brimming with pitching reinforcements, at a time where they suddenly have little need. Of course, we all know that won't last forever. Speaking of Rochester reinforcements, Alan Busenitz is making a hell of a case for a recall. Since his demotion in late April, Busenitz has allowed no runs and only six hits (all singles) over 7 1/3 innings. He has struck out 13 and walked two. Domination. The thing is, right now nobody in the Minnesota bullpen is a candidate for removal. It's a little strange to see a Twins pitching staff functioning so well that plainly deserving players are being kept out, but certainly speaks well to the direction Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have this thing moving. On a down note, we learned this week that 19-year-old shortstop Wander Javier, Twins Daily's No. 6 prospect, would require season-ending surgery for a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. It's a tough setback for a tremendous athlete who appeared poised for a big year. The good news, I guess, is that the Twins have some middle-infield depth in their system with Lewis and Nick Gordon, who is batting .346 at Chattanooga. Javier should be fully recovered by next spring, at which point he'll still only be 20 years old. Twins Daily member Heezy1323, an orthopaedic surgeon who regularly shares illuminating medical insights here on the site, wrote up an excellent article detailing the specifics of Javier's injury and surgery. LOOKING AHEAD The Mariners return for a day to make up a washed-out game from early April, and then the Twins get to try and replicate last week's whupping of the Cards in their home park. The coming weekend should be a fun one, with the Milwaukee Brewers – and, undoubtedly, hundreds of Wisconsinites – heading to Target Field for a border battle showdown. MONDAY, 5/14: MARINERS @ TWINS – LHP Wade LeBlanc v. RHP Jake Odorizzi TUESDAY, 5/15: CARDINALS @ TWINS – RHP Jack Flaherty v. RHP Jose Berrios WEDNESDAY, 5/16: CARDINALS @ TWINS – RHP Miles Mikolas v. RHP Lance Lynn FRIDAY, 5/18: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Chase Anderson v. RHP Kyle Gibson SATURDAY, 5/19: BREWERS @ TWINS – LHP Brent Suter v. RHP Fernando Romero SUNDAY, 5/20: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Junior Guerra v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 31 | MIN 6, STL 0: Fernand0 R0mer0!!!! Game 32 | MIN 7, STL 1: Five Alive Game 33 | LAA 7, MIN 4: What’s Up With Berrios? Game 34 | MIN 5, LAA 4: Rally Rosie Game 35 | MIN 5, LAA 3: Twins Outlast Angels in Gutsy Victory Game 36 | LAA 2, MIN 1: Ohtani Excellent as Angels Walk Off Twins More on Twins Daily Sunday's anticipated matchup between Romero and Ohtani lived up to its billing, with the two rookies dueling admirably. Prior to the game, Cody Christie took a look at some similarities in the recipes these 23-year-olds have utilized to stymy MLB hitters. Speaking of recipes, Ted Schwerzler pointed out that Brian Dozier has been relying on a new one in the early going this season. Kevin Luckow, who will be providing some St. Paul Saints coverage on TD this summer, published a review of For the Love of the Game, a new documentary telling the independent minor-league team's story. Good read. Acknowledging the obvious – that the AL Central is going to be a two-team race – I posed a question for discussion: How good is Cleveland, really?
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Article: How Good is Cleveland, Really?
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is good context, and helps substantiate how consistent and excellent Cleveland's rotation has been. But I'll add this nugget: Cleveland Starters by FIP: Clevinger - 2.95 Bauer - 3.17 Carrasco - 3.32 Kluber - 3.95 Tomlin - 9.71 Minnesota Starters by FIP: Romero - 2.82 Gibson - 3.11 Berrios - 3.56 Lynn - 5.46 Odorizzi - 5.55 Not the hugest disparity, and the Twins still have Erv, Gonsalves and May in the offing. The Indians don't really have those kinds of reinforcements on deck. Personally I have very little confidence Salazar is going to return with any kind of effectiveness for Cleveland this summer; his shoulder is messed up. -
Article: How Good is Cleveland, Really?
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He was also playing through the knee injury for a couple weeks before going on the DL, which no doubt affected his production. -
Article: How Good is Cleveland, Really?
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You may be right, but accounting for the Mariners and Blue Jays as well, I just don't like the Central's chances of nabbing a WC slot. And the more important thing is that, in order to have hopes of playing in the ALDS, the Twins probably need to win the division regardless. The thought of another play-in game in the Bronx sounds nightmarish. -
We're six weeks into the season and we still don't know what to make of the Minnesota Twins, who have shown the ability to cruise when it all clicks and spiral when things go awry. We also don't know what to make of the Cleveland Indians, who have failed to take advantage of Minnesota's slump and build any kind of comfortable lead in the AL Central. What we can say, with relative confidence, is that only one one of these teams is going to make the postseason.The Yankees springboarded off their four-game sweep of the Twins – they've won 10 of 11 games since, and that only ties them with Mookie Betts and the dazzling Red Sox for first place. It'd be a staggering upset if the loser in that AL East slugfest didn't procure a wild-card berth. Toronto is even looking like a factor early on. In the West, the Astros and Angels are living up to their billings. Both are currently on track for around 100 wins, and there's not much reason to view the success of either club as a mirage (though the Halos could become vulnerable if MIke Trout or Shohei Ohtani were to go down). Seattle looms as a credible threat there as well. Meanwhile, Cleveland leads the Central by a game with a ho-hum 18-18 record. While the Twins have generated some doubt early on, they have also had a number of key contributors – Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Ervin Santana, Jorge Polanco, and now Jason Castro – miss time. The Indians have mostly had their stalwarts on the field, minus Andrew Miller who's been sidelined by a hamstring injury. Fans in Cleveland are probably fretting more right now than those in Minny, and reasonably so. The Twins have shown their warts, to be sure, but the pervasive ineptitude that haunted them for two weeks doesn't seem reflective of any crippling long-term weakness. The offense and pitching staff both look capable, and have shown it enough to inspire some confidence. As for the Indians? Their offense has scuffled even with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor hitting well. Jason Kipnis, who hasn't been a significantly above-average hitter since 2015, sports an OPS 90 points lower than Logan Morrison's. Edwin Encarnacion (.696 OPS) will probably come around, but then again, he is easily their oldest regular, at 35. In the rotation, it's true Danny Salazar has been amiss, but the Indians might need to grow accustomed to that reality. And besides, his replacement Mike Clevinger has given as much (2.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) as you could hope to get from Salazar. In the bullpen, even Miller's absence can't come close to excusing the woes that have haunted Cleveland recently. In terms of direct points of comparison, the Twins and Indians appear quite evenly matched. They played neck-and-neck during their two games in Puerto Rico, with the second stretching for 16 innings before a victor emerged. Just as Minnesota suffered a demoralizing sweep at Yankee Stadium, so did Cleveland this past weekend, getting walked off twice in three days. And while the Twins have pulled themselves out of a dreadful early-season slump, the Indians are now trying to steer clear of a lesser one – Wednesday's victory over Milwaukee was just their fourth in 12 games. Of course, slumps happen. I'm not going to cast judgment or draw conclusions in the middle of one for Cleveland, especially after the Twins just showed us how quickly things can turn around. But whereas this upstart Minnesota club was expected to have its flaws, setbacks and tribulations – especially early – the defending Central champs were supposed to run like a well-oiled machine. While the other bona fide AL contenders have all solidified their top-tier statuses, Cleveland sits with the league's seventh-best record as the season's quarter-point approaches. They're still the division favorites but the Indians appear far less formidable than many feared. If winning the Central is Minnesota's only path to the postseason, at least it looks eminently surmountable. This is shaping up be a fun and competitive race that twists and turns throughout the summer. Both teams will have the advantage of copious matchups against the White Sox, Royals and Tigers, so it may very well come down to who takes care of business. The Twins did so in Chicago over the weekend, and will get their first looks at Kansas City and Detroit later this month. The four-game set between Minnesota and Cleveland coming up in three weeks is already one worth circling on the calendar. Click here to view the article
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The Yankees springboarded off their four-game sweep of the Twins – they've won 10 of 11 games since, and that only ties them with Mookie Betts and the dazzling Red Sox for first place. It'd be a staggering upset if the loser in that AL East slugfest didn't procure a wild-card berth. Toronto is even looking like a factor early on. In the West, the Astros and Angels are living up to their billings. Both are currently on track for around 100 wins, and there's not much reason to view the success of either club as a mirage (though the Halos could become vulnerable if MIke Trout or Shohei Ohtani were to go down). Seattle looms as a credible threat there as well. Meanwhile, Cleveland leads the Central by a game with a ho-hum 18-18 record. While the Twins have generated some doubt early on, they have also had a number of key contributors – Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Ervin Santana, Jorge Polanco, and now Jason Castro – miss time. The Indians have mostly had their stalwarts on the field, minus Andrew Miller who's been sidelined by a hamstring injury. Fans in Cleveland are probably fretting more right now than those in Minny, and reasonably so. The Twins have shown their warts, to be sure, but the pervasive ineptitude that haunted them for two weeks doesn't seem reflective of any crippling long-term weakness. The offense and pitching staff both look capable, and have shown it enough to inspire some confidence. As for the Indians? Their offense has scuffled even with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor hitting well. Jason Kipnis, who hasn't been a significantly above-average hitter since 2015, sports an OPS 90 points lower than Logan Morrison's. Edwin Encarnacion (.696 OPS) will probably come around, but then again, he is easily their oldest regular, at 35. In the rotation, it's true Danny Salazar has been amiss, but the Indians might need to grow accustomed to that reality. And besides, his replacement Mike Clevinger has given as much (2.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) as you could hope to get from Salazar. In the bullpen, even Miller's absence can't come close to excusing the woes that have haunted Cleveland recently. In terms of direct points of comparison, the Twins and Indians appear quite evenly matched. They played neck-and-neck during their two games in Puerto Rico, with the second stretching for 16 innings before a victor emerged. Just as Minnesota suffered a demoralizing sweep at Yankee Stadium, so did Cleveland this past weekend, getting walked off twice in three days. And while the Twins have pulled themselves out of a dreadful early-season slump, the Indians are now trying to steer clear of a lesser one – Wednesday's victory over Milwaukee was just their fourth in 12 games. Of course, slumps happen. I'm not going to cast judgment or draw conclusions in the middle of one for Cleveland, especially after the Twins just showed us how quickly things can turn around. But whereas this upstart Minnesota club was expected to have its flaws, setbacks and tribulations – especially early – the defending Central champs were supposed to run like a well-oiled machine. While the other bona fide AL contenders have all solidified their top-tier statuses, Cleveland sits with the league's seventh-best record as the season's quarter-point approaches. They're still the division favorites but the Indians appear far less formidable than many feared. If winning the Central is Minnesota's only path to the postseason, at least it looks eminently surmountable. This is shaping up be a fun and competitive race that twists and turns throughout the summer. Both teams will have the advantage of copious matchups against the White Sox, Royals and Tigers, so it may very well come down to who takes care of business. The Twins did so in Chicago over the weekend, and will get their first looks at Kansas City and Detroit later this month. The four-game set between Minnesota and Cleveland coming up in three weeks is already one worth circling on the calendar.
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Up is down. Black is white. And Twins pitchers are striking everyone out. We've come a long way since the days of 'pitch to contact.' A perfect storm of circumstances has led to a stunning transformation for a Minnesota staff that throughout recent history has reliably – VERY reliably – been among the game's most contact-heavy.With 31 games in the books, Twins pitchers are averaging 9.4 K/9 and striking out 23.5% of batters faced. Such numbers are unheard of around these parts. Now, first, a little context: as you're probably aware, swings and misses are off the charts throughout baseball. April marked the first month in MLB history with more strikeouts than hits. In 2006, the last time Minnesota boasted a true power pitching staff, the team's 7.3 K/9 rate and 19.2 K% both ranked second in the majors. Currently those marks would both be in the bottom five. Even when you account for the seismic shift taking place across the game, though, the Twins' relative standing has improved to a ridiculous degree. Compare their present rankings in K/9, K% and swinging strike rate to the past three seasons: Download attachment: Kgraph.JPG What's driving this spike in strikeouts? Well, in part, it is by the design of Minnesota's new front office. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made power arms a clear emphasis when reshaping the bullpen this offseason; Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke are all unsurprisingly averaging more than a strikeout per inning. Each have been among Paul Molitor's most oft-used options, as has Ryan Pressly who is blowing people away. That helps. But the real story here is in the rotation, suddenly brimming with strikeout artists. How'd we get here? Through a combination of several factors. In some ways, this is just a reflection of the state of the game. Lance Lynn is the most conspicuous example. Despite his overall struggles, the veteran has been generating plenty of whiffs with an 11.4% swinging strike rate that would've led all Twins starters in any of the past five years. Lynn has never posted a whiff rate of even 10% in the past. Meanwhile, Jake Odorizzi has been doing his normal thing, with a 21.9% K-rate and 10.9% swinging strikes — both very much in line with his career baselines but well above the local norm. So here too, additions from the front office have played role. But there's also this: Kyle Gibson has harnessed the improvements he made in the latter half of 2017 and is now a bat-missing machine. Jose Berrios continues to take steps forward in his development. And of course, Fernando Romero has now arrived with some of the best stuff we've seen from any Twins pitcher in years. Add it all up, and you've got a staff that can actually strike fear into opposing lineups, retiring hitters without constantly relying on the defense to make plays (a luxury that will prove critical if Byron Buxton misses much more time this summer). For those of us who've been watching Twins players consistently induce contact over the past decade-plus, it's a jarring change, but a very welcome one. Click here to view the article
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With 31 games in the books, Twins pitchers are averaging 9.4 K/9 and striking out 23.5% of batters faced. Such numbers are unheard of around these parts. Now, first, a little context: as you're probably aware, swings and misses are off the charts throughout baseball. April marked the first month in MLB history with more strikeouts than hits. In 2006, the last time Minnesota boasted a true power pitching staff, the team's 7.3 K/9 rate and 19.2 K% both ranked second in the majors. Currently those marks would both be in the bottom five. Even when you account for the seismic shift taking place across the game, though, the Twins' relative standing has improved to a ridiculous degree. Compare their present rankings in K/9, K% and swinging strike rate to the past three seasons: What's driving this spike in strikeouts? Well, in part, it is by the design of Minnesota's new front office. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made power arms a clear emphasis when reshaping the bullpen this offseason; Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke are all unsurprisingly averaging more than a strikeout per inning. Each have been among Paul Molitor's most oft-used options, as has Ryan Pressly who is blowing people away. That helps. But the real story here is in the rotation, suddenly brimming with strikeout artists. How'd we get here? Through a combination of several factors. In some ways, this is just a reflection of the state of the game. Lance Lynn is the most conspicuous example. Despite his overall struggles, the veteran has been generating plenty of whiffs with an 11.4% swinging strike rate that would've led all Twins starters in any of the past five years. Lynn has never posted a whiff rate of even 10% in the past. Meanwhile, Jake Odorizzi has been doing his normal thing, with a 21.9% K-rate and 10.9% swinging strikes — both very much in line with his career baselines but well above the local norm. So here too, additions from the front office have played role. But there's also this: Kyle Gibson has harnessed the improvements he made in the latter half of 2017 and is now a bat-missing machine. Jose Berrios continues to take steps forward in his development. And of course, Fernando Romero has now arrived with some of the best stuff we've seen from any Twins pitcher in years. Add it all up, and you've got a staff that can actually strike fear into opposing lineups, retiring hitters without constantly relying on the defense to make plays (a luxury that will prove critical if Byron Buxton misses much more time this summer). For those of us who've been watching Twins players consistently induce contact over the past decade-plus, it's a jarring change, but a very welcome one.
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