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Everything posted by Nick Nelson
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Article: 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospect List: 1-5
Nick Nelson replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just want to set the record straight a little here, lest anyone take these highly subjective and questionable "scouting reports" as gospel. Kirilloff was coming back from an entire season lost to elbow surgery this spring. Plenty common for a guy to experience some initial hiccups in the wake of such an ordeal. Claiming he has a "Ben Revere arm" on the basis of such anecdotal evidence is ridiculous. His arm ain't great but drawing comparisons to one of the worst OF throwers in franchise history is an exaggeration deserving of dismissal. FWIW, BA rates Kirilloff's arm as a 50 on the 20-80 scale — basically average. Gonsalves' curveball is most definitely not his best pitch. I don't even know where you'd come up with that. His change is widely viewed as his best pitch and his curve is in fact generally considered the weak link in his repertoire. In a Strib profile on him this past spring it was noted that "some scouts believe (his curveball) might prevent him from being a true staff ace" and Gonsalves himself noted that "I’ve read a lot of bad stuff about my curveball. I know it needs work.”- 74 replies
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Outside additions won't do it, period. The ability of this team to enter the top-tier will be entirely dependent on players like Buxton, Sano, Kepler and other upcoming talents driving the charge. If that happens, Realmuto definitely helps push this team over the hump. No one is suggesting he's some singular solution to their ailments.
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What's odd to me about Thorpe is that he runs up these high pitch counts despite pretty good control (at least in terms of limiting walks). In his latest start he was pulled after 4 2/3 innings, at 97 pitches, even though he hadn't issued a single walk. I haven't watched any of his starts this season but this tells me he gets into a lot of extended ABs, and while he doesn't let the batter slip away they do take their toll.
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What could these Minnesota Twins really use right about now? An excellent catcher, certainly. Someone with elite on-base skills wouldn't hurt. How about a couple of high-upside starting pitchers with legit front-end potential? You'll find all of these and more ahead as we continue Twins Daily's midseason Top 40 prospect countdown.15. Ben Rortvedt – C Age: 20 ETA: 2021 2018 Stats (A-/A+): .274/.329/.387 (.716 OPS), 11 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 46 K, 16 BB 2018 Ranking: 16 | 2017 Ranking: 19 Seth: 21 | Tom: 10 | Cody: 15 When the Twins took Ben Rortvedt 56th overall in 2016, he became their highest-selected catcher since No. 1 pick Joe Mauer in '01. Having kept a close eye on the Verona, WI, kid as he excelled in high school just hours away, Minnesota was clearly sold on his defensive chops. He had all the tools and a tremendous rep behind the plate. "The kid was born to catch," said Twins scouting director Deron Johnson after the draft. This in and of itself makes him an asset, but a quality bat is a differentiator for such player profiles. And while Rortvedt's receiving skills and powerful arm were quickly on display once he signed and reported to rookie ball, his offensive game lagged behind. In 113 plate appearances between the Gulf Coast and Appy leagues, the small-framed teenager batted .222 and slugged .253. His struggles carried over into the 2017 season, which saw Rortvedt slashing .139/.214/.174 in Cedar Rapids at the end of May. But he put up a solid .721 OPS the rest of the way, and then produced similarly there over the first two months this year before a promotion to Fort Myers. In the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, he's sporting a handsome .269/.338/.388 line with two homers (half of his 2017 total) in 20 games. Rortvedt's upward ascent in our rankings – from 19th pre-2017 to 16th pre-2018 to 15 now – has reflected his progression at the dish. The compact and strong-armed backstop has a naturally high floor thanks to his defensive value, and if his bat keeps improving, his ceiling will follow suit. 14. Lewis Thorpe – LHP Age: 22 ETA: 2019 2018 Stats (AA): 82.2 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 4.33 K:BB 2018 Ranking: 12 | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 13 | Tom: 14 | Cody: 16 When he has been on the mound, Lewis Thorpe has dominated. That's been a consistent trend since he signed with the Twins as a 16-year-old out of Australia. Staying on that mound has been his issue. With 82 2/3 innings in the book this season, he's already one out away from his career high (83, last year). In 2017, the lefty was easing back into action after two full seasons lost to injury. But it speaks to his immense talent that, despite all the missed time, Thorpe still finds himself in Double-A at age 22. And he's wreaking havoc. Never mind the ho-hum ERA and WHIP – they are byproducts of an inflated .370 BABIP. What matters is this: Facing high-minors competition for the first time, with only 250 total pro innings under his belt, Thorpe has put up a phenomenal 104-to-24 K/BB ratio. He has posted a phenomenal 16% swinging strike rate (Jose Berrios, for comparison, had a 10% whiff rate in his first turn at Double-A – granted he was 20). The arsenal, a balanced four-pitch mix, is terrific. But it always has been. What Thorpe needs to do is stay healthy and stay on that mound. If he can do so all year while continuing to make batters miss, he'll absolutely be in our Top 10 come next spring. 13. Travis Blankenhorn – 3B Age: 21 ETA: 2020 2018 Stats (A+): .241/.302/.406 (.708 OPS), 16 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 82 K, 19 BB 2018 Ranking: 17 | 2017 Ranking: 9 Seth: 12 | Tom: 9 | Cody: 21 Sometimes power takes a while to develop in young hitters. There's no better testament to this than Brian Dozier, who hit 32 total home runs in college and the minor leagues before launching 164 (and counting) in the big leagues. It's possible that Travis Blankenhorn will be Dozier's successor somewhere down the line – he has played a fair amount of second base since joining the organization as a third-round pick in 2015 – but the 21-year-old profiles better as a third baseman. Coming out of high school, he was the prototype for a slugging corner infielder. Blankenhorn was already big when drafted at 6'1" and 195 lbs. He has since grown a little taller and a little burlier. But the power hasn't quite manifested. Through 308 pro games he has 34 home runs and a .429 slugging percentage, including eight and .406 this year at Fort Myers. His innate strength is plain enough to see – he participated in the Florida State League Home Run Derby a month ago, and won. It's just not flashing consistently enough in games, leading to mediocre production in the FSL. But that power? It's in there, and Blankenhorn is on track to set new career highs in both doubles and home runs. He's still awaiting his true breakthrough but the Pottsville, PA, native has a slugger's frame, keeps the strikeouts in check, and plays quality defense at multiple infield spots. 12. LaMonte Wade – OF Age: 24 ETA: 2018 2018 Stats (AA/AAA): .286/.397/.448 (.845 OPS), 6 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 36 K, 45 BB 2018 Ranking: 14 | 2017 Ranking: 15 Seth: 9 | Tom: 15 | Cody: 14 LaMonte Wade has never been a great hitter, in terms of being able to swing the bat and drive the ball with consistency. But he has always, ever since joining the Twins organization in 2015, been a daunting adversary for opposing pitchers, and one of the toughest outs in pro baseball. During his career at the University of Maryland, Wade walked more than he struck out. But his lack of standout speed or power – he hit seven home runs and stole 25 bases in three collegiate seasons – suppressed his stock and caused him to slip to the ninth round, where Minnesota selected him in 2015. The plate discipline that punched his ticket has translated to the pros, and then some. Thanks to his elite skill for laying off non-strikes and coaxing walks, Wade has a .403 OBP and 187-to-222 K/BB ratio in 346 minor-league games. He has never finished at any level with an OBP below .386. Wade impressed the Twins with his approach during spring training, opened the season in Chattanooga, and is now in Rochester doing his usual thing (.261/.404/.455 in 27 games). I'd be surprised if he doesn't get a look as a September call-up, if not before. He'll probably never hit for much power, and he should be relegated to the outfield corners, but Wade can play a valuable role in the majors thanks to a Mauer-esque understanding of the strike zone. 11. Blayne Enlow – RHP Age: 19 ETA: 2022 2018 Stats (A): 50.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.61 K/BB 2018 Ranking: 8 | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 10 | Tom: 13 | Cody: 13 Coming in under-slot with two of their top three 2017 draft picks (Royce Lewis and Landon Leach) enabled the Twins to go nearly three times over-slot for No. 76 overall pick Blayne Enlow, who turned down a scholarship from Louisiana State to sign for $2 million. Enlow's curveball, vaunted as the best in the country among preps, was unleashed to devastating effect after he signed, leading to eye-popping rookie ball stats and a spot among Twins Daily's Top 10 this spring. Now, after a bit of a tumultuous first half in 2018, he finds himself just on the outside. Impressed with his phenomenal debut, the Twins aggressively pushed Enlow straight to Low-A this year, even though he turned 19 in March. Only three qualified starters in the Midwest League are under 20. Enlow is younger than any of them, but he's not in the "qualified" category, since he's been limited to 12 appearances (10 starts) and 50 2/3 innings by a pair of injuries – first to his back, then his ankle. No, his numbers with the Kernels haven't been great when healthy. But the Twins have been very cautious with his pitch counts (he hasn't thrown 90 pitches in a game, and has only gone over 75 twice in his past 10 outings). He's facing almost exclusively older and more experienced competition. That's not the kind of combo that lends itself to sparkly numbers. That Enlow is even holding his own under these circumstances is commendable. If he gets on a roll in the second half, he'll skyrocket in the ranks. The talent is absolutely there. PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS: 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 36-40 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 31-35 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 26-30 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 21-25 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 16-20 Click here to view the article
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15. Ben Rortvedt – C Age: 20 ETA: 2021 2018 Stats (A-/A+): .274/.329/.387 (.716 OPS), 11 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 46 K, 16 BB 2018 Ranking: 16 | 2017 Ranking: 19 Seth: 21 | Tom: 10 | Cody: 15 When the Twins took Ben Rortvedt 56th overall in 2016, he became their highest-selected catcher since No. 1 pick Joe Mauer in '01. Having kept a close eye on the Verona, WI, kid as he excelled in high school just hours away, Minnesota was clearly sold on his defensive chops. He had all the tools and a tremendous rep behind the plate. "The kid was born to catch," said Twins scouting director Deron Johnson after the draft. This in and of itself makes him an asset, but a quality bat is a differentiator for such player profiles. And while Rortvedt's receiving skills and powerful arm were quickly on display once he signed and reported to rookie ball, his offensive game lagged behind. In 113 plate appearances between the Gulf Coast and Appy leagues, the small-framed teenager batted .222 and slugged .253. His struggles carried over into the 2017 season, which saw Rortvedt slashing .139/.214/.174 in Cedar Rapids at the end of May. But he put up a solid .721 OPS the rest of the way, and then produced similarly there over the first two months this year before a promotion to Fort Myers. In the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, he's sporting a handsome .269/.338/.388 line with two homers (half of his 2017 total) in 20 games. Rortvedt's upward ascent in our rankings – from 19th pre-2017 to 16th pre-2018 to 15 now – has reflected his progression at the dish. The compact and strong-armed backstop has a naturally high floor thanks to his defensive value, and if his bat keeps improving, his ceiling will follow suit. 14. Lewis Thorpe – LHP Age: 22 ETA: 2019 2018 Stats (AA): 82.2 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 4.33 K:BB 2018 Ranking: 12 | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 13 | Tom: 14 | Cody: 16 When he has been on the mound, Lewis Thorpe has dominated. That's been a consistent trend since he signed with the Twins as a 16-year-old out of Australia. Staying on that mound has been his issue. With 82 2/3 innings in the book this season, he's already one out away from his career high (83, last year). In 2017, the lefty was easing back into action after two full seasons lost to injury. But it speaks to his immense talent that, despite all the missed time, Thorpe still finds himself in Double-A at age 22. And he's wreaking havoc. Never mind the ho-hum ERA and WHIP – they are byproducts of an inflated .370 BABIP. What matters is this: Facing high-minors competition for the first time, with only 250 total pro innings under his belt, Thorpe has put up a phenomenal 104-to-24 K/BB ratio. He has posted a phenomenal 16% swinging strike rate (Jose Berrios, for comparison, had a 10% whiff rate in his first turn at Double-A – granted he was 20). The arsenal, a balanced four-pitch mix, is terrific. But it always has been. What Thorpe needs to do is stay healthy and stay on that mound. If he can do so all year while continuing to make batters miss, he'll absolutely be in our Top 10 come next spring. 13. Travis Blankenhorn – 3B Age: 21 ETA: 2020 2018 Stats (A+): .241/.302/.406 (.708 OPS), 16 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 82 K, 19 BB 2018 Ranking: 17 | 2017 Ranking: 9 Seth: 12 | Tom: 9 | Cody: 21 Sometimes power takes a while to develop in young hitters. There's no better testament to this than Brian Dozier, who hit 32 total home runs in college and the minor leagues before launching 164 (and counting) in the big leagues. It's possible that Travis Blankenhorn will be Dozier's successor somewhere down the line – he has played a fair amount of second base since joining the organization as a third-round pick in 2015 – but the 21-year-old profiles better as a third baseman. Coming out of high school, he was the prototype for a slugging corner infielder. Blankenhorn was already big when drafted at 6'1" and 195 lbs. He has since grown a little taller and a little burlier. But the power hasn't quite manifested. Through 308 pro games he has 34 home runs and a .429 slugging percentage, including eight and .406 this year at Fort Myers. His innate strength is plain enough to see – he participated in the Florida State League Home Run Derby a month ago, and won. It's just not flashing consistently enough in games, leading to mediocre production in the FSL. But that power? It's in there, and Blankenhorn is on track to set new career highs in both doubles and home runs. He's still awaiting his true breakthrough but the Pottsville, PA, native has a slugger's frame, keeps the strikeouts in check, and plays quality defense at multiple infield spots. 12. LaMonte Wade – OF Age: 24 ETA: 2018 2018 Stats (AA/AAA): .286/.397/.448 (.845 OPS), 6 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 36 K, 45 BB 2018 Ranking: 14 | 2017 Ranking: 15 Seth: 9 | Tom: 15 | Cody: 14 LaMonte Wade has never been a great hitter, in terms of being able to swing the bat and drive the ball with consistency. But he has always, ever since joining the Twins organization in 2015, been a daunting adversary for opposing pitchers, and one of the toughest outs in pro baseball. During his career at the University of Maryland, Wade walked more than he struck out. But his lack of standout speed or power – he hit seven home runs and stole 25 bases in three collegiate seasons – suppressed his stock and caused him to slip to the ninth round, where Minnesota selected him in 2015. The plate discipline that punched his ticket has translated to the pros, and then some. Thanks to his elite skill for laying off non-strikes and coaxing walks, Wade has a .403 OBP and 187-to-222 K/BB ratio in 346 minor-league games. He has never finished at any level with an OBP below .386. Wade impressed the Twins with his approach during spring training, opened the season in Chattanooga, and is now in Rochester doing his usual thing (.261/.404/.455 in 27 games). I'd be surprised if he doesn't get a look as a September call-up, if not before. He'll probably never hit for much power, and he should be relegated to the outfield corners, but Wade can play a valuable role in the majors thanks to a Mauer-esque understanding of the strike zone. 11. Blayne Enlow – RHP Age: 19 ETA: 2022 2018 Stats (A): 50.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.61 K/BB 2018 Ranking: 8 | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 10 | Tom: 13 | Cody: 13 Coming in under-slot with two of their top three 2017 draft picks (Royce Lewis and Landon Leach) enabled the Twins to go nearly three times over-slot for No. 76 overall pick Blayne Enlow, who turned down a scholarship from Louisiana State to sign for $2 million. Enlow's curveball, vaunted as the best in the country among preps, was unleashed to devastating effect after he signed, leading to eye-popping rookie ball stats and a spot among Twins Daily's Top 10 this spring. Now, after a bit of a tumultuous first half in 2018, he finds himself just on the outside. Impressed with his phenomenal debut, the Twins aggressively pushed Enlow straight to Low-A this year, even though he turned 19 in March. Only three qualified starters in the Midwest League are under 20. Enlow is younger than any of them, but he's not in the "qualified" category, since he's been limited to 12 appearances (10 starts) and 50 2/3 innings by a pair of injuries – first to his back, then his ankle. No, his numbers with the Kernels haven't been great when healthy. But the Twins have been very cautious with his pitch counts (he hasn't thrown 90 pitches in a game, and has only gone over 75 twice in his past 10 outings). He's facing almost exclusively older and more experienced competition. That's not the kind of combo that lends itself to sparkly numbers. That Enlow is even holding his own under these circumstances is commendable. If he gets on a roll in the second half, he'll skyrocket in the ranks. The talent is absolutely there. PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS: 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 36-40 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 31-35 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 26-30 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 21-25 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 16-20
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Ah, good thing Castro is two inches shorter and thus very much assured to have no issues returning from a full meniscus repair — in a knee where he's already had meniscus damage and a torn ACL — at age 31. Of course, the elephant in the room here is that Castro wasn't especially good before going down. His upside at this point is average part-time catcher who will be on his way after 2019.
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Yes, this. The Twins haven't won 90 games in eight years. This is the window of contention they've been building toward. I'm just tired of continually pushing back the goal posts and hoping the next wave of prospects will be the ones to push them through. This system has as much depth as it has at any time I can remember. The Twins won't be gutting their future chances by dealing away a couple of top-end pieces. Players like Realmuto are VERY rarely available on the trade market. It's a situation to take advantage of, IMO.
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Yes, we all know how smoothly Joe Mauer returned from that "minor" arthroscopic knee surgery in 2010. It's odd to me that you're defending this stance so vigorously based on the fact that you, a non-MLB catcher, have had knee surgeries in the past. Respectfully, I don't really think that makes you an expert, and the idea that an injury described by the team's own website as "much more serious than expected," requiring a surgery that cost him the rest of the season in early May, isn't major is kinda silly. Repeating your argument again and again without evidence or factual support isn't convincing.
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As the trade deadline approaches, there's a rightful focus on 'sell' moves the Minnesota Twins should be pursuing. But I would submit there's another, very different sort of swap that Minnesota should be plotting toward. By finding a way to acquire star catcher J.T. Realmuto from Miami, the Twins would be addressing their greatest organizational weakness with authority, while also reinforcing the expectation of a short-term return to contention. Trading for Realmuto wouldn't be so much a buy move for the second half as a buy move for 2019, 2020, and beyond. The reason to do it now is that if they don't, the Twins might miss their chance.This season, the Twins have gotten a lowly .581 OPS from the catcher position, ranking as one of the worst in the majors. But worse even are the Washington Nationals, who have openly tried to upgrade behind the plate. They made a big push for Realmuto during the offseason as Miami held its firesale, but ultimately came up short. Washington's continuing interest in the 27-year-old, who has improved every year in the majors and currently sports a .317/.368/.551 slash line for the Marlins, is well known. But during a late-June radio interview, Nats GM Mike Rizzo was candid in his stance. “They’ve got a great player in Realmuto,” said Rizzo. “They’re not going to sell him cheap. We know what the return has to be on Realmuto, and we’re not willing to meet that price." According to offseason reports and rumors, the Marlins refused to make a deal that didn't include at least one of Victor Robles or Juan Soto. To put that in some context, Robles and Soto ranked No. 1 and No. 2 on Baseball America's list of top Nationals prospects, compiled last November, and the two outfielders placed No. 7 and No. 56 on BA's 2018 preseason list. Soto is now already up in the majors and raking at age 19. So, clearly the Marlins aren't going to settle for anything less than at least one premier, top-end prospect at the front of a Realmuto package. This means that for Minnesota, the conversation would need to start with Royce Lewis, currently 10th in BA's live rankings, or Alex Kirilloff, whose monster season in A-ball has rocketed him up to No. 35. From my view, Lewis is off the table. You just don't trade a player like him away. But pretty much anyone else in the organization should be fair game, including Kirilloff. Could the Twins build a package around the young slugger that gets it done? Should they? Hypothesizing a Prospect Package for Realmuto One can envision Kirilloff striking Miami's fancy as the headliner in an offer for Realmuto – a worthy fallback after they failed to land Robles or Soto. The Marlins system is short on impact bats and Kirilloff has quickly established himself as one of the best in the minors. His sweet left-handed swing draws comparisons to Christian Yelich, who himself enjoyed five stellar seasons with the Fish before being shipped out during the aforementioned offseason firesale. Mired in last place, the Marlins don't really have any hopes of returning to contention within the next couple of seasons, and Realmuto is due for free agency after 2020. Around that same time, Kirilloff figures to be breaking into the big leagues, so the logic behind such a swap from their perspective is easy enough to see. From Minnesota's end, losing Kirilloff would obviously hurt. He's a key piece in their system, especially as offensive production has taken a lackluster turn for the big-league club. But Realmuto's impact in that regard would be enormous, with his polished catching skills and middle-of-the-order bat turning a crucial position from major liability to resounding strength. And, for whatever it's worth, the Twins might have just found themselves another Kirilloff. First-round draft pick Trevor Larnach, who signed last week after starring for Oregon State in the College World Series, has a very similar profile: lefty-swinging, power-hitting corner outfielder, and he'll slot in at just about the same stage of development. It is of course unlikely he'll reach the same level of esteem as Kirilloff, but the Twins at least wouldn't be opening a huge void. So, what else needs to be added alongside Kirilloff to make this happen? I suspect Miami would command another prospect in Minnesota's top tier – perhaps a Nick Gordon or Stephen Gonsalves. Personally I would be reluctantly willing to part with either. But even that might not get it done. Emerging flamethrower Brusdar Graterol, or the more advanced and MLB-ready Fernando Romero, are names that really could get their attention, and while giving either up in addition to Kirilloff would be excruciatingly painful, I think I do it if it gets me two years of Realmuto with a chance to nail down a longer deal. And I might add another prospect from the Twins' Top 10 or 15, too. "The only way to be sustainable over time is to build up the minor league system. That is our focus," said Marlins CEO Derek Jeter during a town hall meeting with fans in December. "I don't expect you to be happy." Dealing Realmuto for a package of prospects headlined by Kirilloff and, say, Graterol might not make Miami fans happy, but it would certainly align within the teardown strategy Jeter was defending. The franchise would add at least two heralded talents with enormous upside while shaving around $6 million off the 2019 payroll. I'll admit, the timing would be a little weird. Why Now? It's not often you see an avowed seller go and flip multiple top prospects for a 27-year-old All-Star at the trade deadline. In fact, I'm not sure it has ever happened. But now is a time for creative, outside-the-box thinking. The Twins – maintaining a focus on short-term contention – aren't your typical deadline seller. Realmuto – tied for second in the National League in WAR and under affordable team control for multiple years – isn't your typical deadline target. As mentioned earlier, one aspect of the rationale here is beating others to the punch. Realmuto is a highly coveted asset and the Marlins are sure to have numerous callers this month. One can argue that it's more logical for Minnesota to wait until the offseason before engaging in these discussions, escaping the leverage dynamics inherent to the deadline, but that isn't necessarily a luxury they can afford. There are also some concrete benefits to pulling the trigger now. Realmuto would have the final two months to acclimate and gain familiarity with the Twins pitching staff, which figures to largely carry over in 2019. There's real value in that for a catcher. And also, Realmuto is just a hell of a player. You could hardly make a more impactful addition at the trade deadline. To whatever extent the Twins remain attached to their nearly invisible postseason hopes, he'd be a huge boost. At the very least, it sends a good message to players and fans: Things haven't gone to plan, but we're still serious about winning, and now. This kind of move would allow them to pursue that goal vigorously while lessening their reliance on Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to lead the charge. It'd be a major shakeup and strategic pivot for the front office, but I believe such measures are warranted given this current state of affairs. What do you think? What would it take to pry Realmuto from the Marlins, and would you be willing to do it? Click here to view the article
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This season, the Twins have gotten a lowly .581 OPS from the catcher position, ranking as one of the worst in the majors. But worse even are the Washington Nationals, who have openly tried to upgrade behind the plate. They made a big push for Realmuto during the offseason as Miami held its firesale, but ultimately came up short. Washington's continuing interest in the 27-year-old, who has improved every year in the majors and currently sports a .317/.368/.551 slash line for the Marlins, is well known. But during a late-June radio interview, Nats GM Mike Rizzo was candid in his stance. “They’ve got a great player in Realmuto,” said Rizzo. “They’re not going to sell him cheap. We know what the return has to be on Realmuto, and we’re not willing to meet that price." According to offseason reports and rumors, the Marlins refused to make a deal that didn't include at least one of Victor Robles or Juan Soto. To put that in some context, Robles and Soto ranked No. 1 and No. 2 on Baseball America's list of top Nationals prospects, compiled last November, and the two outfielders placed No. 7 and No. 56 on BA's 2018 preseason list. Soto is now already up in the majors and raking at age 19. So, clearly the Marlins aren't going to settle for anything less than at least one premier, top-end prospect at the front of a Realmuto package. This means that for Minnesota, the conversation would need to start with Royce Lewis, currently 10th in BA's live rankings, or Alex Kirilloff, whose monster season in A-ball has rocketed him up to No. 35. From my view, Lewis is off the table. You just don't trade a player like him away. But pretty much anyone else in the organization should be fair game, including Kirilloff. Could the Twins build a package around the young slugger that gets it done? Should they? Hypothesizing a Prospect Package for Realmuto One can envision Kirilloff striking Miami's fancy as the headliner in an offer for Realmuto – a worthy fallback after they failed to land Robles or Soto. The Marlins system is short on impact bats and Kirilloff has quickly established himself as one of the best in the minors. His sweet left-handed swing draws comparisons to Christian Yelich, who himself enjoyed five stellar seasons with the Fish before being shipped out during the aforementioned offseason firesale. Mired in last place, the Marlins don't really have any hopes of returning to contention within the next couple of seasons, and Realmuto is due for free agency after 2020. Around that same time, Kirilloff figures to be breaking into the big leagues, so the logic behind such a swap from their perspective is easy enough to see. From Minnesota's end, losing Kirilloff would obviously hurt. He's a key piece in their system, especially as offensive production has taken a lackluster turn for the big-league club. But Realmuto's impact in that regard would be enormous, with his polished catching skills and middle-of-the-order bat turning a crucial position from major liability to resounding strength. And, for whatever it's worth, the Twins might have just found themselves another Kirilloff. First-round draft pick Trevor Larnach, who signed last week after starring for Oregon State in the College World Series, has a very similar profile: lefty-swinging, power-hitting corner outfielder, and he'll slot in at just about the same stage of development. It is of course unlikely he'll reach the same level of esteem as Kirilloff, but the Twins at least wouldn't be opening a huge void. So, what else needs to be added alongside Kirilloff to make this happen? I suspect Miami would command another prospect in Minnesota's top tier – perhaps a Nick Gordon or Stephen Gonsalves. Personally I would be reluctantly willing to part with either. But even that might not get it done. Emerging flamethrower Brusdar Graterol, or the more advanced and MLB-ready Fernando Romero, are names that really could get their attention, and while giving either up in addition to Kirilloff would be excruciatingly painful, I think I do it if it gets me two years of Realmuto with a chance to nail down a longer deal. And I might add another prospect from the Twins' Top 10 or 15, too. "The only way to be sustainable over time is to build up the minor league system. That is our focus," said Marlins CEO Derek Jeter during a town hall meeting with fans in December. "I don't expect you to be happy." Dealing Realmuto for a package of prospects headlined by Kirilloff and, say, Graterol might not make Miami fans happy, but it would certainly align within the teardown strategy Jeter was defending. The franchise would add at least two heralded talents with enormous upside while shaving around $6 million off the 2019 payroll. I'll admit, the timing would be a little weird. Why Now? It's not often you see an avowed seller go and flip multiple top prospects for a 27-year-old All-Star at the trade deadline. In fact, I'm not sure it has ever happened. But now is a time for creative, outside-the-box thinking. The Twins – maintaining a focus on short-term contention – aren't your typical deadline seller. Realmuto – tied for second in the National League in WAR and under affordable team control for multiple years – isn't your typical deadline target. As mentioned earlier, one aspect of the rationale here is beating others to the punch. Realmuto is a highly coveted asset and the Marlins are sure to have numerous callers this month. One can argue that it's more logical for Minnesota to wait until the offseason before engaging in these discussions, escaping the leverage dynamics inherent to the deadline, but that isn't necessarily a luxury they can afford. There are also some concrete benefits to pulling the trigger now. Realmuto would have the final two months to acclimate and gain familiarity with the Twins pitching staff, which figures to largely carry over in 2019. There's real value in that for a catcher. And also, Realmuto is just a hell of a player. You could hardly make a more impactful addition at the trade deadline. To whatever extent the Twins remain attached to their nearly invisible postseason hopes, he'd be a huge boost. At the very least, it sends a good message to players and fans: Things haven't gone to plan, but we're still serious about winning, and now. This kind of move would allow them to pursue that goal vigorously while lessening their reliance on Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to lead the charge. It'd be a major shakeup and strategic pivot for the front office, but I believe such measures are warranted given this current state of affairs. What do you think? What would it take to pry Realmuto from the Marlins, and would you be willing to do it?
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Article: Week in Review: Home Sweet Home
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I respect all of those things. That doesn't mean the franchise should be at the mercy of his whims. I'm not one of Mauer's "critics." It's plain to see he's not a good player right now. Guts and desire are admirable but don't win ballgames – hits and runs do.- 19 replies
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A home series against the worst team in baseball was all the Minnesota Twins needed to get back on track and restore some confidence following a devastating road trip. Keep reading for the full rundown on a week that started hideously in Milwaukee and ended beautifully in Minneapolis. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/2 through Sun, 7/8 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 39-48) Run Differential Last Week: +13 (Overall: -21) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.5 GB) When previewing the upcoming slate in last week's edition of this column, I noted that the "four-game home set against Baltimore in the latter portion would look like a huge opportunity if the Twins hadn't already essentially buried themselves. That Orioles team is really, really bad." True to form, Baltimore came to town and played terribly, dropping all four games to push its MLB-leading loss total to 65. After being swept out of Target Field, the O's find themselves on pace for a 44-118 finish. A good reminder that it could be worse. But things still aren't anywhere near good for the Twins, whose first sweep of the year came on the heels of a gut-wrenching 1-8 road trip that torpedoed their remaining hopes of vaulting into contention. As we head into a new week, the Twins find themselves nine games below .500 and 9 1/2 out in the division despite their modest four-game winning streak. HIGHLIGHTS When a season goes south as this one has, one silver lining is the opportunity to extensively evaluate some potentially useful pieces going forward. One of the most interesting names in this category at present is Jake Cave, who's been enjoying regular playing time with Byron Buxton demoted and Ryan LaMarre designated for assignment. Cave has been taking advantage in a big way. The numbers have been solid – he went 6-for-21 with a pair of doubles this week and has a .785 OPS overall through 20 big-league games – but more noticeable is the energy and hustle. He runs hard on the bases, risked injury with a gutsy headfirst slide into home on Saturday, and has already made several highlight-reel plays in the outfield, including a home run robbery Friday night that earned him some noteworthy praise: When acquired, Cave was described (even by Derek Falvey) as a somewhat fringy center fielder better suited for the corners, but he looked awfully capable making six straight starts in the middle this past week. We'll see where things go from here, but right now Cave is building his case to be part of the 2019 picture. One theoretical outfield mix would have the Twins carrying four lefty-swinging outfielders (Cave, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, LaMonte Wade) on the active roster next year. We might even see that combination in place this September. Speaking of Kepler, he also put forth a strong effort over the past seven days, going 8-for-25 with a pair of home runs while starting all seven games. During Minnesota's nightmarish road trip Kepler had produced zero extra-base hits and one RBI in 34 plate appearances, so it was good to see him hit some balls hard and drive in four during the Baltimore series. Returning to the fold after his 80-game PED suspension to open the season, Jorge Polanco had an assuring first week of action. Starting every game at shortstop, the 25-year-old went 7-for-26 with a pair of doubles and two walks. He's looked sharp on defense, and ended Saturday's game with an excellent backhand play in the hole. On the pitching side there were some impressive performances as well. Aaron Slegers made his first start of the season for the Twins on Thursday and he was money, tossing six very efficient innings with one run, one walk and three hits allowed to pick up his first MLB win. Because his stuff and strikeouts have never matched up with his intimidating frame, the 6-foot-10 righty has never been viewed as a high-end prospect, but the consistent results are hard to ignore. In his tidy victory over Baltimore, Slegers showed why a manager likes to have him around – he worked quickly, pounded the strike zone, and kept his fielders busy while limiting hard contact. Adalberto Mejia, sent back to the minors after getting one chance to start in unbearable heat, certainly deserves another look. So does Fernando Romero, who has put up a 1.45 ERA in three starts at Rochester since an arguably unearned demotion. But Slegers, much like Cave, is one of those borderline players the Twins should be using this second half to assess. It's gonna be tough to find room for holding all these auditions in the rotation unless Minnesota can open up some vacancies, which is why the trade deadline will be key. One candidate to be dealt further bolstered his stock over the weekend. Kyle Gibson shook off a rocky first frame to get through seven innings of three-run ball with nine strikeouts. He set a new career-high by inducing 20 swinging strikes, second-most for a Twins starter all season (Lance Lynn tallied 21 at Detroit in mid-June). Granted, the sterling effort came against a truly lousy Orioles squad, but it was another reminder of Gibby's vastly improved arsenal. There were reportedly scouts on hand to watch the right-hander's previous outing, and if any were in the house at Target Field on Saturday they undoubtedly came away impressed. My stance is that the Twins shouldn't move Gibson unless they're blown away by an offer. But that's not an implausible scenario. Another strong week worth mentioning: Trevor Hildenberger bounced back from his weird implosion at Wrigley Field with three scoreless appearances, striking out five while allowing one hit and two walks. That's more like it. And finally, in the Baby Steps Department: At Triple A, Buxton collected seven hits, including a two doubles and a homer, while scoring seven times and keeping his K-rate below 25%. At Single A, Miguel Sano went 7-for-21 and is sporting a .340 average. LOWLIGHTS Before his monster sixth inning on Sunday, in which he hit both a leadoff double and a subsequent three-run homer, Brian Dozier was 4-for-24 (.167) with nine strikeouts and zero walks on the week. Like much of the second baseman's scant production this year, his big blast – a signature upper-decker yanked to straightaway left – didn't exactly come at a pivotal time, as it extended the team's lopsided lead from seven runs to 10. This trend has led Dozier to a -1.67 Win Probability Added, worst on the team by far, and magnifies the disappointing nature of his performance this season. According to Baseball Reference, the 31-year-old is hitting .123/.206/.193 in "Close and Late" situations, compounding a conspicuous career-long weakness (Dozier's lifetime OPS in such spots is nearly 200 points lower than his overall mark). None of this will do much to prop up his value in the eyes of shopping contenders as the deadline approaches. The only longer-tenured Twin, Joe Mauer, also had a quiet week, picking up five hits in 24 at-bats (.208) with one RBI and one walk. Mauer's keen eye has disappeared since his return from the disabled list. He's coaxed only two free passes in 79 plate appearances (2.5%) after drawing 28 in 167 PA (16.8%) before stirring up concussion symptoms in May. As a result, his OBP has gone from .404 before the injury to .253 since. When answering a fan's question about whether Mauer might return on a one-year deal in 2019, Star Tribune beat reporter La Velle E. Neal III responded, "He wants to play next year, so yes." If it's a true reflection of the organization's mindset, it's annoying. With all due respect, Mauer's desires and preferences should not be dictating the team's plans. He is a leadoff man who, over the past month, hasn't been able to get on base. A first baseman who can't hit for power (subtracting those weird two games at Wrigley Field at the end of June, Mauer has slugged .266 in 18 games since coming off the DL). A lineup staple and ostensible team leader with a 0.3 WAR through half the season. Maybe this is just a short-term slump, and Mauer will soon get back to the level he was at before. But given his history of prolonged droughts following concussion issues, it's not easy to feel confident in that. TRENDING STORYLINE Bobby Wilson badly needed a game like the one he had on Saturday. The "backup" catcher was sporting an unsightly .114/.191/.203 slash line before breaking out with two hits and three RBIs in the victory. Obviously his overall numbers still aren't pretty, and it's fairly clear Wilson doesn't belong in the majors, much less starting on a semi-regular basis. I put the word "backup" in quotes above because Wilson really hasn't functioned as one – more of a straight-up timeshare partner. Since the start of June, Mitch Garver has made 18 starts behind the plate to Wilson's 17, and the two have been pretty close in total plate appearances (72 for Garver versus 56 for Wilson, despite the former out-hitting the latter by 500+ points of OPS during that span). In recent weeks, the catching workload has actually swung very much in Wilson's favor, as he's made 10 starts behind the plate to Garver's seven over the past 17 contests. That Paul Molitor has shifted the balance this way, despite a massive offensive chasm, speaks to a pretty evident lack of faith in Garver's receiving skills. While that's understandable enough given his relative lack of MLB experience, the Twins can't exactly afford to exhibit endless patience with Garver, who turns 28 in January. If he's this far away now from where he needs to be, is he going to get there? How's it gonna happen when he's not getting regular reps? And even if they are unenthused with his defense, why aren't the Twins finding Garver more starts at DH or first? Why was he batting ninth on Friday despite a .333/.393/.451 line over his previous 20 games, and eighth on Sunday after chipping in two hits and a walk on Friday? The handling of Garver has been odd, and the present state of the catcher position is unacceptable. One would think something's gotta give. DOWN ON THE FARM It's been a little bit of a weird season for Lewis Thorpe. The lefty, who returned successfully to Single-A last season after losing two full years to injury and illness, has now taken the step up to Double A where he has dominated... kinda. The core numbers don't reflect it. Through 82 2/3 innings Thorpe has a 4.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, which are hardly eye-popping numbers for a 22-year-old in the Southern League. But he has also posted a stellar 104-to-24 K/BB ratio. His stuff has by all accounts been excellent, and at times that has clearly manifested, like on June 21st when he struck out 12 over seven shutout innings while allowing one hit and one walk. But then he has weird games, like his dud in early June where he coughed up nine runs on nine hits over 3 1/3 innings, even though he induced 16 whiffs on 85 pitches. There was another start in April where he yielded 10 hits over 4 2/3 despite striking out seven, walking none, and again drawing 16 swings and misses. Thorpe has struck out hitters in droves while showing good control, but he's been haunted by a .370 BABIP and elevated pitch counts. Luckily, the folks assembling the Futures Game rosters looked past this and handed the Melbourne native a spot on the World team. He'll likely take the mound at some point next Sunday in DC during the prospect showcase. Maybe he'll even get a chance to face Alex Kirilloff, who will represent the Twins on the U.S. team. The most impressive week on the farm belonged to Brent Rooker, who collected multiple hits in five of seven games and doubled in the winning run for Chattanooga on Saturday. Sporting a 1.047 OPS since the start of June, the 2017 draftee is a compelling candidate to spend time in Rochester or even Minnesota later this season. LOOKING AHEAD If they want to keep this winning streak going, the Twins could hardly ask for a better slate in the final week before the All-Star break. The Royals, closely trailing Baltimore for most losses in the majors at 64, arrive on Monday for a three-game series. Then it's a four-game set versus the mediocre Rays. If the Twins were able to go, say, 6-1 in the coming week while cutting into Cleveland's sizable division lead, one wonders if the front office's deadline calculus would change at all. MONDAY, 7/9: ROYAL @ TWINS – LHP Danny Duffy v. RHP Jose Berrios TUESDAY, 7/10: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Ian Kennedy v. RHP Aaron Slegers WEDNESDAY, 7/11: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Jason Hammel v. RHP Lance Lynn THURSDAY, 7/12: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Blake Snell v. RHP Kyle Gibson FRIDAY, 7/13: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Nathan Eovaldi v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SATURDAY, 7/14: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Jose Berrios SUNDAY, 7/15: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Matt Andriese v. RHP Aaron Slegers Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 81 | MIL 6, MIN 5: Oh, That Rodney ExperienceGame 82 | MIL 2, MIN 0: Strikeouts GaloreGame 83 | MIL 3, MIN 2: Pushing Against a StoneGame 84 | MIN 5, BAL 2: Slegers, Cave Lift Twins Out of SlumpGame 85 | MIN 6, BAL 2: Jake Cave Is the Hero We DeserveGame 86 | MIN 5, BAL 4: More Baltimore, PleaseGame 87 | MIN 10, BAL 1: Twins Pick Up First Sweep of 2018 Click here to view the article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/2 through Sun, 7/8 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 39-48) Run Differential Last Week: +13 (Overall: -21) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.5 GB) When previewing the upcoming slate in last week's edition of this column, I noted that the "four-game home set against Baltimore in the latter portion would look like a huge opportunity if the Twins hadn't already essentially buried themselves. That Orioles team is really, really bad." True to form, Baltimore came to town and played terribly, dropping all four games to push its MLB-leading loss total to 65. After being swept out of Target Field, the O's find themselves on pace for a 44-118 finish. A good reminder that it could be worse. But things still aren't anywhere near good for the Twins, whose first sweep of the year came on the heels of a gut-wrenching 1-8 road trip that torpedoed their remaining hopes of vaulting into contention. As we head into a new week, the Twins find themselves nine games below .500 and 9 1/2 out in the division despite their modest four-game winning streak. HIGHLIGHTS When a season goes south as this one has, one silver lining is the opportunity to extensively evaluate some potentially useful pieces going forward. One of the most interesting names in this category at present is Jake Cave, who's been enjoying regular playing time with Byron Buxton demoted and Ryan LaMarre designated for assignment. Cave has been taking advantage in a big way. The numbers have been solid – he went 6-for-21 with a pair of doubles this week and has a .785 OPS overall through 20 big-league games – but more noticeable is the energy and hustle. He runs hard on the bases, risked injury with a gutsy headfirst slide into home on Saturday, and has already made several highlight-reel plays in the outfield, including a home run robbery Friday night that earned him some noteworthy praise: https://twitter.com/toriihunter48/status/1015432081936146432 When acquired, Cave was described (even by Derek Falvey) as a somewhat fringy center fielder better suited for the corners, but he looked awfully capable making six straight starts in the middle this past week. We'll see where things go from here, but right now Cave is building his case to be part of the 2019 picture. One theoretical outfield mix would have the Twins carrying four lefty-swinging outfielders (Cave, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, LaMonte Wade) on the active roster next year. We might even see that combination in place this September. Speaking of Kepler, he also put forth a strong effort over the past seven days, going 8-for-25 with a pair of home runs while starting all seven games. During Minnesota's nightmarish road trip Kepler had produced zero extra-base hits and one RBI in 34 plate appearances, so it was good to see him hit some balls hard and drive in four during the Baltimore series. Returning to the fold after his 80-game PED suspension to open the season, Jorge Polanco had an assuring first week of action. Starting every game at shortstop, the 25-year-old went 7-for-26 with a pair of doubles and two walks. He's looked sharp on defense, and ended Saturday's game with an excellent backhand play in the hole. On the pitching side there were some impressive performances as well. Aaron Slegers made his first start of the season for the Twins on Thursday and he was money, tossing six very efficient innings with one run, one walk and three hits allowed to pick up his first MLB win. Because his stuff and strikeouts have never matched up with his intimidating frame, the 6-foot-10 righty has never been viewed as a high-end prospect, but the consistent results are hard to ignore. In his tidy victory over Baltimore, Slegers showed why a manager likes to have him around – he worked quickly, pounded the strike zone, and kept his fielders busy while limiting hard contact. Adalberto Mejia, sent back to the minors after getting one chance to start in unbearable heat, certainly deserves another look. So does Fernando Romero, who has put up a 1.45 ERA in three starts at Rochester since an arguably unearned demotion. But Slegers, much like Cave, is one of those borderline players the Twins should be using this second half to assess. It's gonna be tough to find room for holding all these auditions in the rotation unless Minnesota can open up some vacancies, which is why the trade deadline will be key. One candidate to be dealt further bolstered his stock over the weekend. Kyle Gibson shook off a rocky first frame to get through seven innings of three-run ball with nine strikeouts. He set a new career-high by inducing 20 swinging strikes, second-most for a Twins starter all season (Lance Lynn tallied 21 at Detroit in mid-June). Granted, the sterling effort came against a truly lousy Orioles squad, but it was another reminder of Gibby's vastly improved arsenal. There were reportedly scouts on hand to watch the right-hander's previous outing, and if any were in the house at Target Field on Saturday they undoubtedly came away impressed. My stance is that the Twins shouldn't move Gibson unless they're blown away by an offer. But that's not an implausible scenario. Another strong week worth mentioning: Trevor Hildenberger bounced back from his weird implosion at Wrigley Field with three scoreless appearances, striking out five while allowing one hit and two walks. That's more like it. And finally, in the Baby Steps Department: At Triple A, Buxton collected seven hits, including a two doubles and a homer, while scoring seven times and keeping his K-rate below 25%. At Single A, Miguel Sano went 7-for-21 and is sporting a .340 average. LOWLIGHTS Before his monster sixth inning on Sunday, in which he hit both a leadoff double and a subsequent three-run homer, Brian Dozier was 4-for-24 (.167) with nine strikeouts and zero walks on the week. Like much of the second baseman's scant production this year, his big blast – a signature upper-decker yanked to straightaway left – didn't exactly come at a pivotal time, as it extended the team's lopsided lead from seven runs to 10. This trend has led Dozier to a -1.67 Win Probability Added, worst on the team by far, and magnifies the disappointing nature of his performance this season. According to Baseball Reference, the 31-year-old is hitting .123/.206/.193 in "Close and Late" situations, compounding a conspicuous career-long weakness (Dozier's lifetime OPS in such spots is nearly 200 points lower than his overall mark). None of this will do much to prop up his value in the eyes of shopping contenders as the deadline approaches. The only longer-tenured Twin, Joe Mauer, also had a quiet week, picking up five hits in 24 at-bats (.208) with one RBI and one walk. Mauer's keen eye has disappeared since his return from the disabled list. He's coaxed only two free passes in 79 plate appearances (2.5%) after drawing 28 in 167 PA (16.8%) before stirring up concussion symptoms in May. As a result, his OBP has gone from .404 before the injury to .253 since. When answering a fan's question about whether Mauer might return on a one-year deal in 2019, Star Tribune beat reporter La Velle E. Neal III responded, "He wants to play next year, so yes." If it's a true reflection of the organization's mindset, it's annoying. With all due respect, Mauer's desires and preferences should not be dictating the team's plans. He is a leadoff man who, over the past month, hasn't been able to get on base. A first baseman who can't hit for power (subtracting those weird two games at Wrigley Field at the end of June, Mauer has slugged .266 in 18 games since coming off the DL). A lineup staple and ostensible team leader with a 0.3 WAR through half the season. Maybe this is just a short-term slump, and Mauer will soon get back to the level he was at before. But given his history of prolonged droughts following concussion issues, it's not easy to feel confident in that. TRENDING STORYLINE Bobby Wilson badly needed a game like the one he had on Saturday. The "backup" catcher was sporting an unsightly .114/.191/.203 slash line before breaking out with two hits and three RBIs in the victory. Obviously his overall numbers still aren't pretty, and it's fairly clear Wilson doesn't belong in the majors, much less starting on a semi-regular basis. I put the word "backup" in quotes above because Wilson really hasn't functioned as one – more of a straight-up timeshare partner. Since the start of June, Mitch Garver has made 18 starts behind the plate to Wilson's 17, and the two have been pretty close in total plate appearances (72 for Garver versus 56 for Wilson, despite the former out-hitting the latter by 500+ points of OPS during that span). In recent weeks, the catching workload has actually swung very much in Wilson's favor, as he's made 10 starts behind the plate to Garver's seven over the past 17 contests. That Paul Molitor has shifted the balance this way, despite a massive offensive chasm, speaks to a pretty evident lack of faith in Garver's receiving skills. While that's understandable enough given his relative lack of MLB experience, the Twins can't exactly afford to exhibit endless patience with Garver, who turns 28 in January. If he's this far away now from where he needs to be, is he going to get there? How's it gonna happen when he's not getting regular reps? And even if they are unenthused with his defense, why aren't the Twins finding Garver more starts at DH or first? Why was he batting ninth on Friday despite a .333/.393/.451 line over his previous 20 games, and eighth on Sunday after chipping in two hits and a walk on Friday? The handling of Garver has been odd, and the present state of the catcher position is unacceptable. One would think something's gotta give. DOWN ON THE FARM It's been a little bit of a weird season for Lewis Thorpe. The lefty, who returned successfully to Single-A last season after losing two full years to injury and illness, has now taken the step up to Double A where he has dominated... kinda. The core numbers don't reflect it. Through 82 2/3 innings Thorpe has a 4.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, which are hardly eye-popping numbers for a 22-year-old in the Southern League. But he has also posted a stellar 104-to-24 K/BB ratio. His stuff has by all accounts been excellent, and at times that has clearly manifested, like on June 21st when he struck out 12 over seven shutout innings while allowing one hit and one walk. But then he has weird games, like his dud in early June where he coughed up nine runs on nine hits over 3 1/3 innings, even though he induced 16 whiffs on 85 pitches. There was another start in April where he yielded 10 hits over 4 2/3 despite striking out seven, walking none, and again drawing 16 swings and misses. Thorpe has struck out hitters in droves while showing good control, but he's been haunted by a .370 BABIP and elevated pitch counts. Luckily, the folks assembling the Futures Game rosters looked past this and handed the Melbourne native a spot on the World team. He'll likely take the mound at some point next Sunday in DC during the prospect showcase. Maybe he'll even get a chance to face Alex Kirilloff, who will represent the Twins on the U.S. team. The most impressive week on the farm belonged to Brent Rooker, who collected multiple hits in five of seven games and doubled in the winning run for Chattanooga on Saturday. Sporting a 1.047 OPS since the start of June, the 2017 draftee is a compelling candidate to spend time in Rochester or even Minnesota later this season. LOOKING AHEAD If they want to keep this winning streak going, the Twins could hardly ask for a better slate in the final week before the All-Star break. The Royals, closely trailing Baltimore for most losses in the majors at 64, arrive on Monday for a three-game series. Then it's a four-game set versus the mediocre Rays. If the Twins were able to go, say, 6-1 in the coming week while cutting into Cleveland's sizable division lead, one wonders if the front office's deadline calculus would change at all. MONDAY, 7/9: ROYAL @ TWINS – LHP Danny Duffy v. RHP Jose Berrios TUESDAY, 7/10: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Ian Kennedy v. RHP Aaron Slegers WEDNESDAY, 7/11: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Jason Hammel v. RHP Lance Lynn THURSDAY, 7/12: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Blake Snell v. RHP Kyle Gibson FRIDAY, 7/13: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Nathan Eovaldi v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SATURDAY, 7/14: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Jose Berrios SUNDAY, 7/15: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Matt Andriese v. RHP Aaron Slegers Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 81 | MIL 6, MIN 5: Oh, That Rodney Experience Game 82 | MIL 2, MIN 0: Strikeouts Galore Game 83 | MIL 3, MIN 2: Pushing Against a Stone Game 84 | MIN 5, BAL 2: Slegers, Cave Lift Twins Out of Slump Game 85 | MIN 6, BAL 2: Jake Cave Is the Hero We Deserve Game 86 | MIN 5, BAL 4: More Baltimore, Please Game 87 | MIN 10, BAL 1: Twins Pick Up First Sweep of 2018
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Few expected this 2018 Minnesota Twins team would be putting up the 'For Sale' sign in early July, but here we are. With a nightmarish road trip pushing them hopelessly out of contention, the Twins now have no choice but to unload assets and make whatever upgrades they can to move forward. Let's take stock and assess what they've got.As is the nature of this miserable season, the Twins haven't seen trade candidates do much to build value, so the front office won't exactly be working from a position of great strength as the deadline approaches and buyers inquire. With that said, here's how I'd rank players on the "sell" board – not strictly in terms of what they'll bring back, but how eager I'd be to deal them all things considered. 1. Brian Dozier, 2B The hope was that, even if Minnesota slid out of contention during the first four months, Dozier would at least position himself as a coveted trade target. Imagine if he put up the same kind of numbers that earned him an All-Star nod in the first half of 2015: .849 OPS, 19 home runs, 67 runs scored. Coming off back-to-back campaigns that bordered on MVP-caliber, and entering a contract year, this sort of production seemed possible – if not probable – for the 31-year-old. Alas, much like everything else this year, it hasn't gone to plan. Dozier entered play on Thursday with a .220/.308/.394 slash line. That batting average would rank as the worst of his career, and he hasn't posted a lower OPS since his tumultuous rookie season in 2012. Despite the hugely disappointing output, Dozier will still be attractive as a trade candidate. His clubhouse presence is reputed throughout the league. He has a recent history of catching fire down the stretch. And he'll only be owed about $3 million over the final two months of the season. Those two months (plus postseason) are all that a theoretical trade partner will be getting, since Dozier becomes a free agent after the season, but he does have the potential to make a significant impact for a contender. So I do think it's possible he yields a reasonably decent haul, especially if he gets rolling a little here in July. The front office will take any salary relief it can get after the 2018 fizzled out with an all-time high payroll. One club to look out for on the Dozier front: Seattle. Yes, the Mariners will be getting Robinson Cano back from his suspension in mid-August, but he'll be coming off finger surgery and is ineligible for the playoffs. Projected Return: 2 to 3 solid mid-level prospects 2. Fernando Rodney, RP Out of all the moves Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made over the winter, signing Rodney may have drawn the most skepticism. He was, after all, a 41-year-old with a reputation for putting runners aboard and making things interesting. It was all too easy to see this acquisition backfiring. Instead, it's actually proven to be their savviest move. The grizzled vet has looked as strong as ever, pumping fastballs in the mid-90s, and his control has actually been considerably improved from recent years – Rodney's 3.5 BB/9 is lower than any mark he's finished with in that category since 2012, when he was an All-Star and Cy Young candidate. The righty holds a 3.18 ERA, 9.8 K/9 rate, and .626 opponents' OPS. He recently ended a streak of 15 straight converted saves. It's true that relief pitchers don't tend to bring back a ton in deadline trades, owing to the fact they'll only pitch a couple dozen innings thereafter, but Rodney has a couple of factors adding to his appeal: 1) He is as experienced a relief arm as you're going to find on the market, with 16 seasons and 317 saves (tied with Craig Kimbrel for most among active players) under his belt. 2) He's not just a rental, necessarily. His contract includes a team option for $4.25 million next year, so he can easily be brought back on the cheap. Whereas the market for Dozier will be narrowly defined (most contenders have players locked in at second base), most teams will be looking for bullpen help, so Rodney ought to draw more askers. Projected Return: 1-to-2 decent prospects 3. Lance Lynn, SP No one seemed to want Lynn much during the offseason, where he went unsigned before joining the Twins three weeks into spring training, and it's unlikely that has changed during the past few months. In 16 starts, Lynn has posted a 5.49 ERA and 1.68 WHIP while issuing more walks (50) than all but two other big-league starters. On top of the poor numbers, there's the poor attitude; his perpetually visible grumpiness was passed off as competitiveness when he was pitching well for good Cardinals teams, but seems more sulky when he's struggling for a terrible Twins team. Lynn's failure to cover first base during a disastrous second inning in his latest start – subject of a frustrated Paul Molitor's venting after the game – is the kind of thing that is noticed and frowned upon. Having said all that, Lynn is a vet with a lengthy track record of success, and his performance has generally been better of late; he posted a 3.27 ERA in May and June. There are also some promising underlying signs in his performance: a four-seamer averaging nearly 93 MPH, a career-high 10.6% swinging strike rate, and metrics like a .341 BABIP and sub-70% strand rate that suggest he's been victimized by unsustainably bad luck. I've got to think someone will take a shot on him. He's a better bet than the fifth starters on several contenders and could be a real difference-maker if he gets invigorated and throws strikes. But the Twins will be lucky to get someone to eat all of his remaining ~$5 million in salary, and are very unlikely to get back on anything of consequence. The real value here is in opening up a 40-man roster spot, and some innings for younger pitchers. Projected Return: 1 non-prospect 4. Kyle Gibson, SP Without question, Gibson would yield much more than Lynn in a trade. He has legitimately turned a corner in his career and is controllable through 2019, his final year of arbitration eligibility. But those very same factors should make Minnesota reluctant to move him. Gibson is making $4.2 million this season (about one-third of Lynn's salary) after losing his arbitration case against the Twins. Presuming he stays healthy and on track the rest of the way, he'll get a healthy raise next year but still shouldn't make more than $10 million or so, a bargain for someone of his caliber. As the Twins eye a quick return to contention, they'll certainly want to maintain their improvements in the rotation. Gibson's been such a big part of that, and figures to be a key depth piece next year with Lynn, Jake Odorizzi and Ervin Santana all potentially moving on. For what it's worth, the Yankees reportedly had scouts on hand to watch Gibson's latest start. Projected Return: 1 prospect that ranks in the 6-to-15 range on Twins top prospect list, and maybe another low-level guy 5. Zach Duke, RP He has quietly been everything the Twins could've hoped for, turning in a 2.90 ERA, 2.49 FIP and 9.3 K/9 rate while allowing zero home runs in 38 appearances. His 0.7 WAR leads all Minnesota relievers. Yet despite his fine work, Duke hasn't had a huge overall impact, evidenced by -0.40 WPA and only 31 innings pitchers through the team's first 82 games. It's the nature of his role, a limited one by convention, and that will limit his trade value. The Twins won't likely get much more substance in return for Duke than they did for Fernando Abad (remember Pat Light?), so they may be just as well holding on and letting him eat innings the rest of the way. Projected Return: One prospect who ranks toward the back of Minnesota's Top 40 6. Eduardo Escobar, IF He is Minnesota's most valuable trade chip among realistic candidates, to be sure. Escobar is having a career year at age 29, hitting .277/.335/.531 with a league-leading 34 doubles through the first half. He's a versatile and solid defender, beloved by all who spend time around him. Similar attributes fueled Eduardo Nunez's value two years ago, when the Twins flipped him to San Francisco for Adalberto Mejia, now a long-term rotation candidate. Escobar's a better and more desirable player now than Nunez was then, so it's easy to see the appeal of floating him out there. Any quality prospect is worth more than two months of Esco in a lost season. But there's a bit more to the equation than that. Once the season ends, Minnesota will be able to extend Escobar a qualifying offer. If accepted, he'll come back on a one-year deal worth around $18 million. If rejected, the Twins will net a high draft pick when he signs elsewhere. That sure seems like a good plan. He probably takes the QO, but that would put the Twins in a good position. A one-year commitment to Escobar carries little risk – they'll be overpaying but shouldn't have any trouble affording it – and might be really handy as the club faces an uncertain outlook in the infield. Obviously the conversation changes if the right offer comes along, but I lean toward holding onto Escobar. Projected Return: Roughly the same as Gibson's 7. Jake Odorizzi, SP This is really a take-it-or-leave-it situation. Like Gibson, Odorizzi has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, so the Twins will have an option to bring him back on the cheap(ish). But the trajectories of these two careers have moved in opposite directions – Gibson sharply ascending and Odorizzi in stark decline. Inefficient, homer-prone and unable to work deep into games (he hasn't recorded an out in the seventh all year), Odorizzi is pitching as poorly as he has at any point in his career. The Twins got him from Tampa in exchange for Jermaine Palacios, who ranked outside their Top 20 prospects when they dealt him, and they'd get less for him now. At this point it's a little hard to envision Odorizzi figuring into the team's 2019 plans, but you never know what'll happen, and that optional control is nice to have. Projected Return: Roughly the same as Duke's 8. Everyone Else To me, those are the names worth discussing. Other impending free agents either have too little value to merit mentioning (Logan Morrison) or a no-trade clause (Joe Mauer). Some might suggest a name like Addison Reed but it's hard to see the wisdom in trading him with his stock at perhaps an all-time low. There are, of course, more ambitious and outside-the-box ideas, like selling high on Eddie Rosario, or giving up on Max Kepler, or shipping Ryan Pressly – despite his controllability – to a team that looks at his stuff and whiffs more than his lack of results. But those options don't interest me all that much. What interests you in terms of a deadline approach? I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments. Click here to view the article
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As is the nature of this miserable season, the Twins haven't seen trade candidates do much to build value, so the front office won't exactly be working from a position of great strength as the deadline approaches and buyers inquire. With that said, here's how I'd rank players on the "sell" board – not strictly in terms of what they'll bring back, but how eager I'd be to deal them all things considered. 1. Brian Dozier, 2B The hope was that, even if Minnesota slid out of contention during the first four months, Dozier would at least position himself as a coveted trade target. Imagine if he put up the same kind of numbers that earned him an All-Star nod in the first half of 2015: .849 OPS, 19 home runs, 67 runs scored. Coming off back-to-back campaigns that bordered on MVP-caliber, and entering a contract year, this sort of production seemed possible – if not probable – for the 31-year-old. Alas, much like everything else this year, it hasn't gone to plan. Dozier entered play on Thursday with a .220/.308/.394 slash line. That batting average would rank as the worst of his career, and he hasn't posted a lower OPS since his tumultuous rookie season in 2012. Despite the hugely disappointing output, Dozier will still be attractive as a trade candidate. His clubhouse presence is reputed throughout the league. He has a recent history of catching fire down the stretch. And he'll only be owed about $3 million over the final two months of the season. Those two months (plus postseason) are all that a theoretical trade partner will be getting, since Dozier becomes a free agent after the season, but he does have the potential to make a significant impact for a contender. So I do think it's possible he yields a reasonably decent haul, especially if he gets rolling a little here in July. The front office will take any salary relief it can get after the 2018 fizzled out with an all-time high payroll. One club to look out for on the Dozier front: Seattle. Yes, the Mariners will be getting Robinson Cano back from his suspension in mid-August, but he'll be coming off finger surgery and is ineligible for the playoffs. Projected Return: 2 to 3 solid mid-level prospects 2. Fernando Rodney, RP Out of all the moves Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made over the winter, signing Rodney may have drawn the most skepticism. He was, after all, a 41-year-old with a reputation for putting runners aboard and making things interesting. It was all too easy to see this acquisition backfiring. Instead, it's actually proven to be their savviest move. The grizzled vet has looked as strong as ever, pumping fastballs in the mid-90s, and his control has actually been considerably improved from recent years – Rodney's 3.5 BB/9 is lower than any mark he's finished with in that category since 2012, when he was an All-Star and Cy Young candidate. The righty holds a 3.18 ERA, 9.8 K/9 rate, and .626 opponents' OPS. He recently ended a streak of 15 straight converted saves. It's true that relief pitchers don't tend to bring back a ton in deadline trades, owing to the fact they'll only pitch a couple dozen innings thereafter, but Rodney has a couple of factors adding to his appeal: 1) He is as experienced a relief arm as you're going to find on the market, with 16 seasons and 317 saves (tied with Craig Kimbrel for most among active players) under his belt. 2) He's not just a rental, necessarily. His contract includes a team option for $4.25 million next year, so he can easily be brought back on the cheap. Whereas the market for Dozier will be narrowly defined (most contenders have players locked in at second base), most teams will be looking for bullpen help, so Rodney ought to draw more askers. Projected Return: 1-to-2 decent prospects 3. Lance Lynn, SP No one seemed to want Lynn much during the offseason, where he went unsigned before joining the Twins three weeks into spring training, and it's unlikely that has changed during the past few months. In 16 starts, Lynn has posted a 5.49 ERA and 1.68 WHIP while issuing more walks (50) than all but two other big-league starters. On top of the poor numbers, there's the poor attitude; his perpetually visible grumpiness was passed off as competitiveness when he was pitching well for good Cardinals teams, but seems more sulky when he's struggling for a terrible Twins team. Lynn's failure to cover first base during a disastrous second inning in his latest start – subject of a frustrated Paul Molitor's venting after the game – is the kind of thing that is noticed and frowned upon. Having said all that, Lynn is a vet with a lengthy track record of success, and his performance has generally been better of late; he posted a 3.27 ERA in May and June. There are also some promising underlying signs in his performance: a four-seamer averaging nearly 93 MPH, a career-high 10.6% swinging strike rate, and metrics like a .341 BABIP and sub-70% strand rate that suggest he's been victimized by unsustainably bad luck. I've got to think someone will take a shot on him. He's a better bet than the fifth starters on several contenders and could be a real difference-maker if he gets invigorated and throws strikes. But the Twins will be lucky to get someone to eat all of his remaining ~$5 million in salary, and are very unlikely to get back on anything of consequence. The real value here is in opening up a 40-man roster spot, and some innings for younger pitchers. Projected Return: 1 non-prospect 4. Kyle Gibson, SP Without question, Gibson would yield much more than Lynn in a trade. He has legitimately turned a corner in his career and is controllable through 2019, his final year of arbitration eligibility. But those very same factors should make Minnesota reluctant to move him. Gibson is making $4.2 million this season (about one-third of Lynn's salary) after losing his arbitration case against the Twins. Presuming he stays healthy and on track the rest of the way, he'll get a healthy raise next year but still shouldn't make more than $10 million or so, a bargain for someone of his caliber. As the Twins eye a quick return to contention, they'll certainly want to maintain their improvements in the rotation. Gibson's been such a big part of that, and figures to be a key depth piece next year with Lynn, Jake Odorizzi and Ervin Santana all potentially moving on. For what it's worth, the Yankees reportedly had scouts on hand to watch Gibson's latest start. Projected Return: 1 prospect that ranks in the 6-to-15 range on Twins top prospect list, and maybe another low-level guy 5. Zach Duke, RP He has quietly been everything the Twins could've hoped for, turning in a 2.90 ERA, 2.49 FIP and 9.3 K/9 rate while allowing zero home runs in 38 appearances. His 0.7 WAR leads all Minnesota relievers. Yet despite his fine work, Duke hasn't had a huge overall impact, evidenced by -0.40 WPA and only 31 innings pitchers through the team's first 82 games. It's the nature of his role, a limited one by convention, and that will limit his trade value. The Twins won't likely get much more substance in return for Duke than they did for Fernando Abad (remember Pat Light?), so they may be just as well holding on and letting him eat innings the rest of the way. Projected Return: One prospect who ranks toward the back of Minnesota's Top 40 6. Eduardo Escobar, IF He is Minnesota's most valuable trade chip among realistic candidates, to be sure. Escobar is having a career year at age 29, hitting .277/.335/.531 with a league-leading 34 doubles through the first half. He's a versatile and solid defender, beloved by all who spend time around him. Similar attributes fueled Eduardo Nunez's value two years ago, when the Twins flipped him to San Francisco for Adalberto Mejia, now a long-term rotation candidate. Escobar's a better and more desirable player now than Nunez was then, so it's easy to see the appeal of floating him out there. Any quality prospect is worth more than two months of Esco in a lost season. But there's a bit more to the equation than that. Once the season ends, Minnesota will be able to extend Escobar a qualifying offer. If accepted, he'll come back on a one-year deal worth around $18 million. If rejected, the Twins will net a high draft pick when he signs elsewhere. That sure seems like a good plan. He probably takes the QO, but that would put the Twins in a good position. A one-year commitment to Escobar carries little risk – they'll be overpaying but shouldn't have any trouble affording it – and might be really handy as the club faces an uncertain outlook in the infield. Obviously the conversation changes if the right offer comes along, but I lean toward holding onto Escobar. Projected Return: Roughly the same as Gibson's 7. Jake Odorizzi, SP This is really a take-it-or-leave-it situation. Like Gibson, Odorizzi has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, so the Twins will have an option to bring him back on the cheap(ish). But the trajectories of these two careers have moved in opposite directions – Gibson sharply ascending and Odorizzi in stark decline. Inefficient, homer-prone and unable to work deep into games (he hasn't recorded an out in the seventh all year), Odorizzi is pitching as poorly as he has at any point in his career. The Twins got him from Tampa in exchange for Jermaine Palacios, who ranked outside their Top 20 prospects when they dealt him, and they'd get less for him now. At this point it's a little hard to envision Odorizzi figuring into the team's 2019 plans, but you never know what'll happen, and that optional control is nice to have. Projected Return: Roughly the same as Duke's 8. Everyone Else To me, those are the names worth discussing. Other impending free agents either have too little value to merit mentioning (Logan Morrison) or a no-trade clause (Joe Mauer). Some might suggest a name like Addison Reed but it's hard to see the wisdom in trading him with his stock at perhaps an all-time low. There are, of course, more ambitious and outside-the-box ideas, like selling high on Eddie Rosario, or giving up on Max Kepler, or shipping Ryan Pressly – despite his controllability – to a team that looks at his stuff and whiffs more than his lack of results. But those options don't interest me all that much. What interests you in terms of a deadline approach? I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments.
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I would say the surge is already underway. In April/May Bechtold hit .172/.259/.200 with 4 doubles and 0 HR in 41 games. Since the start of June he's at .288/.408/.413 with 7 doubles and 1 HR in 24 games. Overall numbers are unimpressive, yes, but that's the kind of progression you're looking for.
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- tyler watson
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The strength of Minnesota's highly regarded farm system is in its depth. Yes, the Twins boast a few top-tier talents that will be profiled at the end of this series, but this organization's intrigue and upside extend beyond the Top 10 and even beyond the Top 30, as the five players below exemplify.35. Tyler Watson – LHP Age: 21 ETA: 2021 2018 Stats (A-/A+): 56.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 36 | Tom: 28 | Cody: 44 When a late-July swoon caused them to pivot into seller mode last year, the Twins flipped All-Star closer Brandon Kintzler to the Washington Nationals for Tyler Watson, a former 34th-round draft with a tall frame and a short track record. The 6'5", 200 lb southpaw has a physique any scout can love, and the Nats lured him away from college in 2015 with a $400K signing bonus. Watson blew hitters away in rookie leagues, but was struggling a bit in A-ball when the Twins acquired last summer. That hasn't changed, as the numbers above illustrate, but Derek Falvey views the burly left-hander as a long-term project. "Tyler is a young left-handed starter we feel is just scratching the surface of who he can be," Minnesota's chief baseball officer said at the time. "Taller pitchers can take a little longer to develop, but we feel there's more in the tank." Right now he's a fairly hittable starter with a low-90s fastball and a developing curve, neither of which he commands all that consistently. But Watson is still only 21, with an almost ideal build and an 8.9 K/9 rate through his 250 innings as a pro. I'm definitely curious to see what else is in the tank. 34. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. – OF Age: 21 ETA: 2021 2018 Stats (Rk): .258/.303/.419 (.722 OPS), 1 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, 3 K, 2 BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 43 | Tom: 30 | Cody: 29 Bill Kinneberg, head baseball coach at the University of Utah, knew DaShawn Keirsey Jr. was destined to be an early-round MLB draft pick from the first time he watched him play. "I remember him running faster than anyone we've ever had, and you add that to his 6-foot-2 frame — yeah, it was evident right away." Last June, he was the 124th player to come off the board when Minnesota took him in the fourth round, and it's possible he would've gone earlier if not for a major injury in 2017 where the aggressive and speedy center fielder collided with an outfield wall (sound familiar?) and came off the field in an ambulance, his hip dislocated and the socket fractured. "Nobody could give us a timetable. That was a scary deal,” said Coach Kinneberg. It was a very tough break for a player whose game was built around speed, but Keirsey rehabbed hard and bounced back this spring with an outstanding junior season, batting .386 with a 1.049 OPS while leading the PAC-12 in doubles and reaching base in 45 of 50 games. He's a speedy gamer with good contact skills from the left side and an excellent defensive rep (he was three-time PAC-12 All Defense in center), so comparisons to Zack Granite or even Ben Revere are apt, but some foresee more power in Keirsey's future. 33. Gabriel Moya – LHP Age: 23 ETA: 2018 2018 Stats (AAA): 33.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.22 K/BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 40 | Tom: 35 | Cody: 22 Whereas Tyler Watson, profiled above, was clearly more of an acquisition guided by scouting, the Twins were pretty clearly going by the numbers when they picked up Gabriel Moya from Arizona in exchange for catcher John Ryan Murphy around the same time. The rare example of a lefty reliever whose changeup is his best pitch, Moya won't wow you with his high-80s fastball and modest breaking stuff. He'll more likely confuse you with his unique and twitchy mechanics. But his stats? Those'll wow you. Moya had a 0.82 ERA and 14.0 K/9 rate in Double-A last summer when the Twins acquired him, and he has kept the magic going in Minnesota's system with a 1.32 ERA and 57-to-12 K/BB ratio in 48 innings between Chattanooga (last year) and Rochester (this year). He has only received limited chances in the majors so far, amounting to 11 1/3 total innings with less than wow-worthy results, but is clearly deserving of an extended opportunity. Maybe it will come if the Twins open a spot by trading Zach Duke before the deadline. 32. Andrew Bechtold – 3B Age: 22 ETA: 2021 2018 Stats (A): .217/.320/.281 (.601 OPS), 11 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 67 K, 32 BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 27 | Tom: 41 | Cody: 42 A righty-swinging infielder who grew in the Philly suburbs, Bechtold has followed a winding path to reach this point. He was selected by the Rangers in the 37th round of the 2014 draft following a strong senior year in high school, but elected not to sign, heading instead to the University of Maryland where he'd join fellow current Twins prospects LaMonte Wade and Alex Robinson. Due to injuries and other factors, things just didn't work out for Bechtold at Maryland. After two years, he transferred to Chipola, a junior college, where he got his baseball career back on track. He hit .419 with 12 home runs and 24 steals in 60 games, impressing the Twins enough that they drafted him in the fifth round and went well above slot to sign him at $600K. Bechtold's power hasn't shown up yet, as he's managed just three homers and a .337 slugging percentage in 107 games between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids, but he has shown a solid plate approach and an ability to get on base (he posted a .426 OBP for the Kernels in June). Ultimately the third baseman's development will hinge on his adding muscle and turning it into game power, but as a skilled defender with a good idea of what he's doing at the plate, Bechtold has the right foundation. 31. Jordan Balazovic – RHP Age: 19 ETA: 2022 2018 Stats (A): 26.2 IP, 2.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 13.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 5.86 K/BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 20 | Tom: 40 | Cody: 34 One year before taking Bechtold in the fifth round, the Twins used that selection on Jordan Balazovic, a Canadian right-hander who was catching some eyes north of the border. Like Bechtold, the Twins went over-slot to sign Balazovic, coaxing him out of a commitment to Auburn. The organization has taken it slow with Balazovic, who was only 17 when drafted in 2016. He spent two seasons in the rookie Gulf Coast League, with decidedly mixed results. This year he's made the move to Cedar Rapids, and things have really come together. He has struck out 41 in 26 2/3 innings of work, and in his most recent outing on Saturday, hurled six innings of one-hit ball with 10 strikeouts. Balazovic is a teenager who's thrown less than 100 official innings since being drafted, so all standard caveats apply, but he's a very live arm, and his arrow is pointing directly upward and flashing at this moment. PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS: 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 36-40 Click here to view the article
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35. Tyler Watson – LHP Age: 21 ETA: 2021 2018 Stats (A-/A+): 56.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 36 | Tom: 28 | Cody: 44 When a late-July swoon caused them to pivot into seller mode last year, the Twins flipped All-Star closer Brandon Kintzler to the Washington Nationals for Tyler Watson, a former 34th-round draft with a tall frame and a short track record. The 6'5", 200 lb southpaw has a physique any scout can love, and the Nats lured him away from college in 2015 with a $400K signing bonus. Watson blew hitters away in rookie leagues, but was struggling a bit in A-ball when the Twins acquired last summer. That hasn't changed, as the numbers above illustrate, but Derek Falvey views the burly left-hander as a long-term project. "Tyler is a young left-handed starter we feel is just scratching the surface of who he can be," Minnesota's chief baseball officer said at the time. "Taller pitchers can take a little longer to develop, but we feel there's more in the tank." Right now he's a fairly hittable starter with a low-90s fastball and a developing curve, neither of which he commands all that consistently. But Watson is still only 21, with an almost ideal build and an 8.9 K/9 rate through his 250 innings as a pro. I'm definitely curious to see what else is in the tank. 34. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. – OF Age: 21 ETA: 2021 2018 Stats (Rk): .258/.303/.419 (.722 OPS), 1 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, 3 K, 2 BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 43 | Tom: 30 | Cody: 29 Bill Kinneberg, head baseball coach at the University of Utah, knew DaShawn Keirsey Jr. was destined to be an early-round MLB draft pick from the first time he watched him play. "I remember him running faster than anyone we've ever had, and you add that to his 6-foot-2 frame — yeah, it was evident right away." Last June, he was the 124th player to come off the board when Minnesota took him in the fourth round, and it's possible he would've gone earlier if not for a major injury in 2017 where the aggressive and speedy center fielder collided with an outfield wall (sound familiar?) and came off the field in an ambulance, his hip dislocated and the socket fractured. "Nobody could give us a timetable. That was a scary deal,” said Coach Kinneberg. It was a very tough break for a player whose game was built around speed, but Keirsey rehabbed hard and bounced back this spring with an outstanding junior season, batting .386 with a 1.049 OPS while leading the PAC-12 in doubles and reaching base in 45 of 50 games. He's a speedy gamer with good contact skills from the left side and an excellent defensive rep (he was three-time PAC-12 All Defense in center), so comparisons to Zack Granite or even Ben Revere are apt, but some foresee more power in Keirsey's future. 33. Gabriel Moya – LHP Age: 23 ETA: 2018 2018 Stats (AAA): 33.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.22 K/BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 40 | Tom: 35 | Cody: 22 Whereas Tyler Watson, profiled above, was clearly more of an acquisition guided by scouting, the Twins were pretty clearly going by the numbers when they picked up Gabriel Moya from Arizona in exchange for catcher John Ryan Murphy around the same time. The rare example of a lefty reliever whose changeup is his best pitch, Moya won't wow you with his high-80s fastball and modest breaking stuff. He'll more likely confuse you with his unique and twitchy mechanics. But his stats? Those'll wow you. Moya had a 0.82 ERA and 14.0 K/9 rate in Double-A last summer when the Twins acquired him, and he has kept the magic going in Minnesota's system with a 1.32 ERA and 57-to-12 K/BB ratio in 48 innings between Chattanooga (last year) and Rochester (this year). He has only received limited chances in the majors so far, amounting to 11 1/3 total innings with less than wow-worthy results, but is clearly deserving of an extended opportunity. Maybe it will come if the Twins open a spot by trading Zach Duke before the deadline. 32. Andrew Bechtold – 3B Age: 22 ETA: 2021 2018 Stats (A): .217/.320/.281 (.601 OPS), 11 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 67 K, 32 BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 27 | Tom: 41 | Cody: 42 A righty-swinging infielder who grew in the Philly suburbs, Bechtold has followed a winding path to reach this point. He was selected by the Rangers in the 37th round of the 2014 draft following a strong senior year in high school, but elected not to sign, heading instead to the University of Maryland where he'd join fellow current Twins prospects LaMonte Wade and Alex Robinson. Due to injuries and other factors, things just didn't work out for Bechtold at Maryland. After two years, he transferred to Chipola, a junior college, where he got his baseball career back on track. He hit .419 with 12 home runs and 24 steals in 60 games, impressing the Twins enough that they drafted him in the fifth round and went well above slot to sign him at $600K. Bechtold's power hasn't shown up yet, as he's managed just three homers and a .337 slugging percentage in 107 games between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids, but he has shown a solid plate approach and an ability to get on base (he posted a .426 OBP for the Kernels in June). Ultimately the third baseman's development will hinge on his adding muscle and turning it into game power, but as a skilled defender with a good idea of what he's doing at the plate, Bechtold has the right foundation. 31. Jordan Balazovic – RHP Age: 19 ETA: 2022 2018 Stats (A): 26.2 IP, 2.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 13.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 5.86 K/BB 2018 Ranking: NR | 2017 Ranking: NR Seth: 20 | Tom: 40 | Cody: 34 One year before taking Bechtold in the fifth round, the Twins used that selection on Jordan Balazovic, a Canadian right-hander who was catching some eyes north of the border. Like Bechtold, the Twins went over-slot to sign Balazovic, coaxing him out of a commitment to Auburn. The organization has taken it slow with Balazovic, who was only 17 when drafted in 2016. He spent two seasons in the rookie Gulf Coast League, with decidedly mixed results. This year he's made the move to Cedar Rapids, and things have really come together. He has struck out 41 in 26 2/3 innings of work, and in his most recent outing on Saturday, hurled six innings of one-hit ball with 10 strikeouts. Balazovic is a teenager who's thrown less than 100 official innings since being drafted, so all standard caveats apply, but he's a very live arm, and his arrow is pointing directly upward and flashing at this moment. PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS: 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospects: 36-40
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During a sweltering week in Chicago, the 2018 Twins saw their fleeting hopes further melt away. Granted, half of the season still remains. But as Minnesota staggers into July trailing Cleveland by nine games in the Central, and behind seven others in the Wild Card standings, certain realities are at play as the trade deadline looms. Following another week of tremendously uninspiring play, one need not look at postseason odds to reach an inescapable conclusion: This ship isn't sinking anymore; it's sunk. So where do we go from here? Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/25 through Sun, 7/1 *** Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 35-45) Run Differential Last Week: -18 (Overall: -34) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (8.0 GB) HIGHLIGHTS This might have been the worst week of baseball the Twins have put forth all year (really saying something!) so extracting highlights isn't easy, but there were a few standouts worth mentioning amidst the wreckage. Firstly, it was great to see Joe Mauer finally flashing some pop. After a quiet series against the White Sox, he busted out at Wrigley Field, going 5-for-10 with two doubles, a home run and eight RBIs on Friday and Saturday. In those two games, Mauer drove in more runs than he had in his previous 39 combined, and collected half as many extra-base hits. That of course speaks to the lack of any power dimension in Mauer's game this year – he entered the Cubs series with an egregiously bad .322 slugging percentage. It's been disappointing to see after he slugged .417 with 36 doubles last season, both his highest marks since moving to first base. But over the weekend he at least showed that some hint of pop remains in his bat, which was very much in doubt. Making a potentially more important offensive statement was Ehire Adrianza, who's been producing at the plate for a while now. His week included a four-hit game at Guaranteed Rate Field, and saw him go 9-for-21 (.429) overall while striking out only once. Back in March, when the Jorge Polanco news came down, I wrote about Adrianza and his big opportunity to prove that last year's solid showing at the plate was no fluke. Having shaken off a slow start, he's basically doing that, as his .724 OPS is a notch above last year's (.707) with his 100+ OPS pegging him as a league-average hitter. That might not sound too special, but for a defensive specialist who can play shortstop regularly it's nice, and there is reason to believe Adrianza is still developing at the dish. The 28-year-old has launched four home runs in his past 26 games; previously, he'd hit five total in 224 major-league games. I'll admit to being at the end of my rope with Adrianza during his blunderous April and May, but I'm glad the Twins showed patience and stuck with him. He's making a very good case to return next year as Polanco's backup or possibly even a starter. Speaking of Polanco, he is set to return this week and looked very sharp during his ramp-up in the minors. After a quick stint in Fort Myers, the shortstop moved up to Rochester and went 6-for-13 in four games, so he appears locked in and ready to go. Twins fans could really use some good news, and a big second half for Polanco back in the fold would certainly qualify. One week ago I mentioned that "Willians Astudillo sure seems deserving of a shot," and on Friday he got it, called up to join the Twins ahead of the Cubs series. Astudillo singled in his first MLB at-bat on Saturday and picked up two more hits – including a two-run triple – in his first start on Sunday. A stout free swinger capable of getting the bat on almost any pitch, he plays third base and catcher (and center field, apparently). He was responsible for the . Now, at 26, with more than 2,300 minor-league plate appearances, he's finally getting his first chance in the big leagues. Astudillo will be a fun one to root for as the rest of this season plays out. LOWLIGHTS It's hard to choose. Last week the "Lowlights" section of this column covered a majority of the roster and this time the same is warranted. Pitchers were terrible, lit up for eight or more runs in four of the six games. The lineup struggled against lousy White Sox pitching, managing seven runs in 31 innings. They were able to get it going a little in the scorching heat at Wrigley but couldn't keep pace with the home squad's relentless attack. Even players among the select group who've reliably gotten it done for Minnesota this year fell into this contagious spiral. Eduardo Escobar went 3-for-23. Trevor Hildenberger allowed a hit or walk to eight of the nine batters he faced on Saturday, and was charged with five earned runs while recording one out; he'd entered the appearance with a 0.92 WHIP. Jose Berrios looked as bad as he has all season on Friday, inducing only four swinging strikes on 78 pitches. But at least those guys have all done their part for the bulk of the first half. The same cannot be said for Brian Dozier, who drove in two runs on the week with solo homers in his first and second-to-last plate appearances. In between, he produced two singles. The first half has been a slog for Dozier, who holds a .221/.311/.397 slash line through 79 games. His power has gone amiss and he's been dreadful in key spots, with a -1.67 WPA that ranks as the team's worst. What has happened to Dozier, who'd seemingly evolved into a steady veteran stalwart? It's clearly not a question of effort or motivation, given the extremely high personal stakes for him this season. The most likely explanation is that age is catching up as Dozier moves past his ostensible prime at age 31. But perhaps there's something more going on. I found this cryptic quote from the second baseman in a recent piece from Dan Hayes at The Athletic to be a curious one: He backed up that last promise on Sunday when he nearly blew out his leg stretching for an infield single with the team down 9-1, going on to score three times as Minnesota mounted a late (but failed) comeback. On balance, however, even 100 percent of Dozier isn't nearly adequate right now, because it's a mere fraction of the player he's been for the past half-decade. The bright side, I guess, is this: It's already been more or less ordained that Dozier isn't in the plan beyond 2018. So while his ill-timed drop-off is a major bummer for him and his financial future, it doesn't really alter the club's big-picture outlook. More perturbing on that front is Byron Buxton's continued inability to find a workable approach at the plate. While he claims to now be pain-free, Buxton's numbers rehabbing haven't reflected it. He did have a two-hit game in Rochester on Sunday, but it raised his average to .214. In 11 games, he has two doubles and one homer to go along with 15 strikeouts and two walks. Yes, it is a small sample size. But keep this in mind: When Buxton was last in Triple-A, rehabbing in 2017, he went 5-for-12 (.417) with two homers in three games. In 2016 during his brief time there he hit .400 /.441/.545 in 13 games. Now at age 24 he's failing to gain traction, striking out in one-third of his plate appearances. His rehab window is approaching its end, and you've gotta think if all remains as is, the Twins will option Buxton and keep him in the minors. They've already taken that step with Miguel Sano, who remains on an every-other-game regimen in Fort Myers. He actually had a good week down there as he collected eight hits in five games, including a home run Sunday – his first since May 31st in Minnesota. But it's clear that the 25-year-old has a long way to go. TRENDING STORYLINE Now that we're in July, the trade deadline is visibly on the horizon. Their inability to get anything going over the past few weeks has placed Minnesota firmly in the "seller" category, and even though he's having a tough season, Dozier is the most likely candidate to go among core players. His sterling reputation around the league, as well as his known penchant for getting hot and powering up an offense, will boost his value beyond the lackluster stats. That's not to say the Twins will get a haul for him but someone is gonna make it worth their while, especially because – unlike fellow impending free agent Escobar – Dozier's viability as a qualifying offer candidate is no longer really part of the equation. By dealing their back-to-back-to-back team MVP, the Twins can signal the start of a new era by ushering in Nick Gordon alongside Polanco in the middle-infield, or they could keep giving Adrianza regular ABs. But it's a sad way for one of the best careers in recent franchise history to come to an end. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on Dozier's trade market as it starts to take shape in the coming weeks. DOWN ON THE FARM Let's brighten things up a little bit. The Twins have got some absolutely premium bats rising through the system. When Baseball America released its midseason top 100 prospects list last week, Alex Kirilloff moved up 50 spots from the preseason rankings. The 2016 first-round pick is garnering plenty of national attention with his spectacular return from a yearlong absence due to Tommy John surgery. After a quiet first half of the week with Fort Myers, Kirilloff got back to business with a trio of two-hit games against Lakeland. He's batting .341 for the Miracle. Kirilloff was the second-highest Twins prospect on BA's midseason list, behind Royce Lewis, who has now graduated to elite territory at No. 12 overall. Lewis enjoyed another stellar week in Cedar Rapids, tallying 10 hits, including four doubles and a homer, while drawing five walks and swiping three bases on three tries. Fort Myers awaits. Brusdar Graterol, who you can expect to find jockeying with Lewis and Kirilloff for top-three positioning in Twins Daily's midseason top 40 (now underway!), received his promotion from Low-A to High-A and made his debut for the Miracle on Sunday, though it didn't go well as he coughed up five runs on nine hits over three innings. LOOKING AHEAD It'll be a full week, bisected by the holiday on Wednesday. The four-game home set against Baltimore in the latter portion would look like a huge opportunity if the Twins hadn't already essentially buried themselves. That Orioles team is really, really bad. MONDAY, 7/2: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Brent Suter TUESDAY, 7/3: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Junior Guerra WEDNESDAY, 7/4: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Chase Anderson THURSDAY, 7/5: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Andrew Cashner v. LHP Adalberto Mejia FRIDAY, 7/6: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Lance Lynn SATURDAY, 7/7: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Kevin Gausman v. RHP Kyle Gibson SUNDAY, 7/8: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Alex Cobb v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 75 | CHW 8, MIN 4: South Side SlipGame 76 | CHW 6, MIN 1: Gibby Gets GotGame 77 | MIN 2, CHW 1: Walking Away With a WinGame 78 | CHC 10, MIN 6: Hey, Remember Joe Mauer?Game 79 | CHC 14, MIN 9: It’s Not the Heat, it’s ... Actually, It Is the Heat This TimeGame 80 | CHC 11, MIN 10: Epic Comeback Falls Short Click here to view the article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/25 through Sun, 7/1 *** Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 35-45) Run Differential Last Week: -18 (Overall: -34) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (8.0 GB) HIGHLIGHTS This might have been the worst week of baseball the Twins have put forth all year (really saying something!) so extracting highlights isn't easy, but there were a few standouts worth mentioning amidst the wreckage. Firstly, it was great to see Joe Mauer finally flashing some pop. After a quiet series against the White Sox, he busted out at Wrigley Field, going 5-for-10 with two doubles, a home run and eight RBIs on Friday and Saturday. In those two games, Mauer drove in more runs than he had in his previous 39 combined, and collected half as many extra-base hits. That of course speaks to the lack of any power dimension in Mauer's game this year – he entered the Cubs series with an egregiously bad .322 slugging percentage. It's been disappointing to see after he slugged .417 with 36 doubles last season, both his highest marks since moving to first base. But over the weekend he at least showed that some hint of pop remains in his bat, which was very much in doubt. Making a potentially more important offensive statement was Ehire Adrianza, who's been producing at the plate for a while now. His week included a four-hit game at Guaranteed Rate Field, and saw him go 9-for-21 (.429) overall while striking out only once. Back in March, when the Jorge Polanco news came down, I wrote about Adrianza and his big opportunity to prove that last year's solid showing at the plate was no fluke. Having shaken off a slow start, he's basically doing that, as his .724 OPS is a notch above last year's (.707) with his 100+ OPS pegging him as a league-average hitter. That might not sound too special, but for a defensive specialist who can play shortstop regularly it's nice, and there is reason to believe Adrianza is still developing at the dish. The 28-year-old has launched four home runs in his past 26 games; previously, he'd hit five total in 224 major-league games. I'll admit to being at the end of my rope with Adrianza during his blunderous April and May, but I'm glad the Twins showed patience and stuck with him. He's making a very good case to return next year as Polanco's backup or possibly even a starter. Speaking of Polanco, he is set to return this week and looked very sharp during his ramp-up in the minors. After a quick stint in Fort Myers, the shortstop moved up to Rochester and went 6-for-13 in four games, so he appears locked in and ready to go. Twins fans could really use some good news, and a big second half for Polanco back in the fold would certainly qualify. One week ago I mentioned that "Willians Astudillo sure seems deserving of a shot," and on Friday he got it, called up to join the Twins ahead of the Cubs series. Astudillo singled in his first MLB at-bat on Saturday and picked up two more hits – including a two-run triple – in his first start on Sunday. A stout free swinger capable of getting the bat on almost any pitch, he plays third base and catcher (and center field, apparently). He was responsible for the . Now, at 26, with more than 2,300 minor-league plate appearances, he's finally getting his first chance in the big leagues. Astudillo will be a fun one to root for as the rest of this season plays out.LOWLIGHTS It's hard to choose. Last week the "Lowlights" section of this column covered a majority of the roster and this time the same is warranted. Pitchers were terrible, lit up for eight or more runs in four of the six games. The lineup struggled against lousy White Sox pitching, managing seven runs in 31 innings. They were able to get it going a little in the scorching heat at Wrigley but couldn't keep pace with the home squad's relentless attack. Even players among the select group who've reliably gotten it done for Minnesota this year fell into this contagious spiral. Eduardo Escobar went 3-for-23. Trevor Hildenberger allowed a hit or walk to eight of the nine batters he faced on Saturday, and was charged with five earned runs while recording one out; he'd entered the appearance with a 0.92 WHIP. Jose Berrios looked as bad as he has all season on Friday, inducing only four swinging strikes on 78 pitches. But at least those guys have all done their part for the bulk of the first half. The same cannot be said for Brian Dozier, who drove in two runs on the week with solo homers in his first and second-to-last plate appearances. In between, he produced two singles. The first half has been a slog for Dozier, who holds a .221/.311/.397 slash line through 79 games. His power has gone amiss and he's been dreadful in key spots, with a -1.67 WPA that ranks as the team's worst. What has happened to Dozier, who'd seemingly evolved into a steady veteran stalwart? It's clearly not a question of effort or motivation, given the extremely high personal stakes for him this season. The most likely explanation is that age is catching up as Dozier moves past his ostensible prime at age 31. But perhaps there's something more going on. I found this cryptic quote from the second baseman in a recent piece from Dan Hayes at The Athletic to be a curious one: He backed up that last promise on Sunday when he nearly blew out his leg stretching for an infield single with the team down 9-1, going on to score three times as Minnesota mounted a late (but failed) comeback. On balance, however, even 100 percent of Dozier isn't nearly adequate right now, because it's a mere fraction of the player he's been for the past half-decade. The bright side, I guess, is this: It's already been more or less ordained that Dozier isn't in the plan beyond 2018. So while his ill-timed drop-off is a major bummer for him and his financial future, it doesn't really alter the club's big-picture outlook. More perturbing on that front is Byron Buxton's continued inability to find a workable approach at the plate. While he claims to now be pain-free, Buxton's numbers rehabbing haven't reflected it. He did have a two-hit game in Rochester on Sunday, but it raised his average to .214. In 11 games, he has two doubles and one homer to go along with 15 strikeouts and two walks. Yes, it is a small sample size. But keep this in mind: When Buxton was last in Triple-A, rehabbing in 2017, he went 5-for-12 (.417) with two homers in three games. In 2016 during his brief time there he hit .400 /.441/.545 in 13 games. Now at age 24 he's failing to gain traction, striking out in one-third of his plate appearances. His rehab window is approaching its end, and you've gotta think if all remains as is, the Twins will option Buxton and keep him in the minors. They've already taken that step with Miguel Sano, who remains on an every-other-game regimen in Fort Myers. He actually had a good week down there as he collected eight hits in five games, including a home run Sunday – his first since May 31st in Minnesota. But it's clear that the 25-year-old has a long way to go. TRENDING STORYLINE Now that we're in July, the trade deadline is visibly on the horizon. Their inability to get anything going over the past few weeks has placed Minnesota firmly in the "seller" category, and even though he's having a tough season, Dozier is the most likely candidate to go among core players. His sterling reputation around the league, as well as his known penchant for getting hot and powering up an offense, will boost his value beyond the lackluster stats. That's not to say the Twins will get a haul for him but someone is gonna make it worth their while, especially because – unlike fellow impending free agent Escobar – Dozier's viability as a qualifying offer candidate is no longer really part of the equation. By dealing their back-to-back-to-back team MVP, the Twins can signal the start of a new era by ushering in Nick Gordon alongside Polanco in the middle-infield, or they could keep giving Adrianza regular ABs. But it's a sad way for one of the best careers in recent franchise history to come to an end. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on Dozier's trade market as it starts to take shape in the coming weeks. DOWN ON THE FARM Let's brighten things up a little bit. The Twins have got some absolutely premium bats rising through the system. When Baseball America released its midseason top 100 prospects list last week, Alex Kirilloff moved up 50 spots from the preseason rankings. The 2016 first-round pick is garnering plenty of national attention with his spectacular return from a yearlong absence due to Tommy John surgery. After a quiet first half of the week with Fort Myers, Kirilloff got back to business with a trio of two-hit games against Lakeland. He's batting .341 for the Miracle. Kirilloff was the second-highest Twins prospect on BA's midseason list, behind Royce Lewis, who has now graduated to elite territory at No. 12 overall. Lewis enjoyed another stellar week in Cedar Rapids, tallying 10 hits, including four doubles and a homer, while drawing five walks and swiping three bases on three tries. Fort Myers awaits. Brusdar Graterol, who you can expect to find jockeying with Lewis and Kirilloff for top-three positioning in Twins Daily's midseason top 40 (now underway!), received his promotion from Low-A to High-A and made his debut for the Miracle on Sunday, though it didn't go well as he coughed up five runs on nine hits over three innings. LOOKING AHEAD It'll be a full week, bisected by the holiday on Wednesday. The four-game home set against Baltimore in the latter portion would look like a huge opportunity if the Twins hadn't already essentially buried themselves. That Orioles team is really, really bad. MONDAY, 7/2: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Brent Suter TUESDAY, 7/3: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Junior Guerra WEDNESDAY, 7/4: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Chase Anderson THURSDAY, 7/5: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Andrew Cashner v. LHP Adalberto Mejia FRIDAY, 7/6: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Lance Lynn SATURDAY, 7/7: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Kevin Gausman v. RHP Kyle Gibson SUNDAY, 7/8: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Alex Cobb v. RHP Jake Odorizzi Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 75 | CHW 8, MIN 4: South Side Slip Game 76 | CHW 6, MIN 1: Gibby Gets Got Game 77 | MIN 2, CHW 1: Walking Away With a Win Game 78 | CHC 10, MIN 6: Hey, Remember Joe Mauer? Game 79 | CHC 14, MIN 9: It’s Not the Heat, it’s ... Actually, It Is the Heat This Time Game 80 | CHC 11, MIN 10: Epic Comeback Falls Short
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Article: The Rise and Fall of Miguel Sano
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Hey, if you don't like it, you're welcome to not read, and certainly welcome to not comment! Your whole shtick forever has been calling for managers/coaches/front office types of be fired. You grind your axes against players that you don't like ad nauseam. We all know this. And you're whining about "too much drama"? Who do you think you're kidding? If you wanna actually tell me what specifically is unfair about this article, instead of making ridiculous exaggerations about how I'm "crucifying" Sano, or being "malicious," or suggesting the team should get rid of him, then go for it. But if that's all you've got, drop it. I'm really tired of hearing it. -
I've never cared much about the Home Run Derby. In the past I might have watched it in passing, with Chris Berman's grating 'back-back-back' calls muted, but it's never been destination viewing for me. Last year, that changed. After running a baseball practice on a Monday evening in July, I raced home to catch the majority of the event. Following his breakout first half for the Twins, I needed to see Miguel Sano's majestic power on the national stage. Boy did he deliver. And boy, does that night – somehow less than one year ago – now feel like a distant memory, as Sano's ensuing regression has led him back-back-back to Single-A.At Marlins Park, no one could keep up with Aaron Judge and his inhuman display of strength. But Sano came close. He edged Mike Moustakas and Gary Sanchez before facing off against Judge in the final round of the Derby, ultimately coming up a little short. The view from Minnesota was blindingly bright. As Sano leisurely slugged baseballs far beyond Miami's outfield walls, he grinned and reveled in the moment, looking as natural in the spotlight as he always had. Having carried into the All-Star break 21 homers and a .906 OPS, there he was, alongside Judge, two young stars of the game basking in their glory. The best part? It seemed as though we were only scratching the surface. Sano was a year younger than Judge – still just a 24-year-old gaining comfort and familiarity with major-league pitching. The sky was the limit. But instead, the sky has fallen. Sano's collapse has spanned three dimensions: his performance, his physical condition, and his attitude. While it's tough to know exactly how to weigh each individually, it seems clear that all three are problematic, which helps explains the organization's drastic reparative measure. PERFORMANCE Since the 2017 All-Star break, Sano has batted .206 and slugged .416, striking out at a 40% rate while watching his once-pristine walk rate drop to an utterly mediocre 7.9%. The power is still there, and occasionally evident when he manages to guess right and get a hold of one, but his approach at the plate has completely unraveled. Before his demotion, Sano was an immensely easy assignment for opposing pitchers, who were by then executing the "get ahead and spin it outside" formula so consistently it brought about deja vu. Defensive metrics rated his glove as terrible. He lumbered around the bases sluggishly. Overall, he was a sub-replacement level player. PHYSICAL CONDITION Sano's weight has been a subject of public scrutiny since at least March 2016, when Patrick Reusse called him out in the Star Tribune. "He is heavier this spring than last," Reusse wrote. "He is at 270-plus when the Twins were hoping to have him at 260-minus as they go forward with the plan to play him in right field." Oh yeah, that plan. That great, brilliantly conceived plan. Anyway, by the end of 2017, Sano's weight had reportedly risen to 290-plus, and he was in the same range this spring. Many factors have contributed to his burgeoning bulk – diet, downtime recovering from injuries, and natural genetics all likely play a role – but there's no denying the trend. Sano's size has unquestionably affected his play, and has very likely affected his ability to stay on the field. It's not unheard of for a player to miss six weeks due to a stress reaction (as Sano did late last year), or a month due to a hamstring injury of mysterious origin (as Sano did early this year). But for both to happen in such quick succession, for a player whose physical conditioning already had become a known issue, is conspicuous to say the least. When the Twins sent Sano down to Fort Myers, part of their rationale - according to Derek Falvey – was this: “We can do a lot of things with the facility we have there, around strength and conditioning and the work you can do from that side.” ATTITUDE When Reusse took Sano to task for showing up at camp larger than expected in 2016, he wasn't just reporting. He also included some insinuations and barbs, suggesting that a lack of commitment and maturity on the slugger's end were partially to blame. Fellow Strib columnist Jim Souhan followed suit in a similarly toned piece last August, asserting that a hefty Sano needed to show some dietary discipline. I'm not the only one who found these digs irksome. Never did I doubt the veracity of the reporting, in that Reusse and Souhan were relaying actual concerns that existed within the organization, but was it necessary reporting? Internal rumblings about perceived character weaknesses in the past have eventually led to some unfortunate narratives and very bad personnel decisions. It all felt very gossipy. Unfortunately, no one can deny that the grievances aired through Reusse and Souhan appear valid in retrospect. Even as someone who has tried to give Sano the benefit of doubt at every turn, I can't ignore the insurmountable evidence of a man who just doesn't get it. Whether or not these should be perceived as "character issues" varies based on who you're listening to, but without question Sano's troubles are to some extent his own doing. Anecdotes like this one from Mike Berardino speak well enough to that. At best, Sano has been aloof and passive at a time where he needs to be working diligently to regain an edge. Hopefully the latter is now occurring in Fort Myers. It's so strange, this state of affairs: When he was last playing for the Miracle in 2013, Sano was a rising 20-year-old superstar, posting a 1.079 OPS during a brief 56-game stint en route to Double-A. Five years later he's back there, a broken and banished oddity. On Friday night, as the surrounding Fort Myers hitters teed off for 20 hits, five homers and 14 runs around him, Sano went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts as the cleanup hitter. It's one game, yes, but it seems to say a whole lot. Perhaps down the line we'll look at this current juncture as the rock-bottom point in his playing career, instead of looking at the fleeting memory of that All Star weekend last summer as the high point. Click here to view the article

