Nick Nelson

I was only talking about trade value in comparison to Gordon, to make the point that Javier being further from the majors and coming off a missed season doesn't make him undesirable. I think plenty of teams out there would love to get their hands on Javier. Gordon might still be a decent prospect but he's not in-demand by any stretch. Again, I admit that my aggressive ranking on Javier is subjective and I have no problem with anyone disagreeing. I am just a huge believer in his talent, and reports I've heard on him convince me that he's going to be a major factor for this organization. It's all about the upside. Gordon lacks that in my eyes.

He has enough future value to offset the lack of present value IMO. I'm just a big believer that he's 1) going to stick at SS, and 2) hit. Obviously that's subjective and it does depart a little from the focus on established track record, but there ya go. My sense is that the rest of the league values him highly too. He'd bring back far more than Gordon would in trade. Zero question.

As rumors swirled of Minnesota's reported interest in free agent slugger Nelson Cruz, I found myself lukewarm on the notion. But now that this union has actually come to fruition, with Cruz and the Twins agreeing to terms on Thursday, I find my reservations have mostly been lifted. Part of this is because of the deal's unexpectedly team-friendly structure. Part of it is the deeper meaning.Here are three reasons I find myself warming up to Cruz (none of them are that his name is Nelson, although that is very good and important). 1. It's only a one-year guarantee My main hold-up with the idea of signing Cruz was that he's a DH-only player who resides at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum, making him a restrictive presence on the roster. He'll be an everyday fixture, so long as he's healthy, so Rocco Baldelli pretty much totally loses his ability to use the DH spot for any other purposes. Wanna take it easy on Sano's legs early on? If he plays, it's gonna have to be in the field. Wanna play all four of your (arguably) starter-caliber outfielders at the same time? Not really an option now. Wanna call up Brent Rooker because he's clobbering Triple-A, but there's no vacancy at first base or corner OF? Tough luck. Cruz was reportedly seeking a two-year contract, and that just seemed impractical to me for a team in Minnesota's position, taking stock of its own uncertain assets. Especially so when you consider that Cruz is likely to decline, at least to some degree, as he approaches 40 years of age. But at one year, and at a downright reasonable cost of $14 million? With an even more reasonable team option attached? Who could really take issue with it? In the event this team fails to take off, there's a fair chance Cruz will have enough deadline value to return a prospect or two, so the element of long-term upside is still there. And what I'm loving is that the Twins no longer appear to be planning for that event. 2. The Twins are demonstrating they want to win During his August interview with Baseball Prospectus at Target Field, general manager Thad Levine somewhat downplayed free agency as an avenue for additions: "This might not be the perfect time for us to invest in a guy who’s 30 years old and would need to perform today in order for us to realize his true potential. We’re bullish on 2019 for the Twins, and we’re really excited for 2020 and beyond, for a variety of reasons." Between remarks like that, and the Twins quickly filling their two most evident roster holes with a pair of castoffs from other organizations – albeit castoffs with considerable upside – I became resigned to this as a stand-pat offseason for the team, consisting of half-measures and stopgaps. Given the situation, and the number of uncertain (yet intriguing) pieces on hand, it made enough sense. The Twins would hardly be alone in following the "stagnant rebuild" model being employed by about half the league. Cruz is a major pivot away from that path. Levine spoke of avoiding "a guy who's 30 years old and would need to perform today in order for us to realize his true potential," and Cruz is pretty much that, except he's 38. This is a win-now move through and through. On one hand, there's minimal risk in any one-year contract. On the other hand, the Twins are making real sacrifices here, as a team in flux and with various moving parts. Levine and Derek Falvey are undoubtedly aware of the roster-building limitations of a 600-PA designated hitter, which I covered earlier. They are also aware that this move probably costs them Tyler Austin, an interesting slugger who might've figured into the club's plans beyond 2020. Cruz surely won't. But ya know what? He's great enough, and the deal is good enough, that you accept those downsides. Cleveland is supposedly deep in talks to trade Corey Kluber, and this division looks ripe for the taking. With Cruz in their lineup, the Twins are far more legitimate threats on paper. The signing sends a reinvigorating message to the current Twins players. (Don't believe me? Check their Twitter accounts.) And even more importantly... 3. It sends the right message to fans This fan base has taken a beating. The past eight years have included five 90-game losers, including the worst Twins team of all time. Modest glimpses of hope in 2015 and 2017 were each followed by gut-punch backslides. We just had to watch the 2018 squad commit approximately 5 billion gaffes and miscues against the backdrop of "This Is How We Baseball" plastered on Target Field's outfield wall. We needed a jolt. We got it. Once you brush past all the metrics and analysis, Nelson Cruz is simply a big-ticket player who generates tons of excitement, and is tremendously fun to watch. He leads baseball in home runs since 2014. He's been an All-Star five times in the last six years. He routinely ranks among the league leaders in exit velocity This guy is an absolute phenom of the game, with a big and bright personality. That's the kind of infusion this team sorely needed to stir up some genuine enthusiasm. There are other reasons to like the fit, including clubhouse impact (you'd be hard-pressed to argue that a 39-year-old Torii Hunter didn't make an impact beyond his numbers in 2015), but these are the three concrete reasons that have me feeling good about the move. How 'bout you? Click here to view the article

I look forward to your upcoming folk revival album. I hear it's got some bangin fiddle solos. (Also... ahem)

Look, a guy named Nick can absolutely remain fully committed to his day job (or jobs) while also making rap music. I'm living proof! (Couldn't pass up this opportunity to give a shameless plug for my new album, which dropped last Friday)

Fair. I guess it just depends on how much you buy into his power emergence and defensive value. A guy who can play center field and post a .200 ISO for several years has a lot of value. And I think he's particularly useful to the Twins at this moment with the uncertainty swirling around Buxton and Kepler. (I'll add that I did not have Cave in my top 20 at first pass, and gradually talked myself into that rank.)

That's generally the right way to think about it, but the idea is for these rankings to be less universal and more specific to the Twins at this moment in time. So the calculus here is: Who will be more valuable to the Twins in the near future? Who has the higher floor of production? Cron, pretty clearly, I think. Do Gordon's realistic upside and likely future impact do enough to outweigh this? Not from my view, at this moment in time. He looks like a 700-OPS second baseman. Obviously you'd get more return from trading Gordon than Cron (though I don't think you'd get enough for either to make it worthwhile). That's not exactly the point.

Perfectly stated. I was trying to figure out how best to explain this nuance and you laid it out pretty much perfectly. For the purposes of these rankings I weighed the value of established track record and reliability a little more highly. Otherwise it'd basically just turn into a top prospects list.

Care to elaborate on your point of contention? It's not exactly easy to compare 29-year-old MLB first basemen with 23-year-old middle infield prospects, but that's the bit here. These rankings represent a snapshot in time; right now, Cron's value is up and Gordon's is down. There is value in reliability, a decent floor and established production.

Last year around this time, I took a shot at ranking the top 20 player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization. The idea was to think solely in terms of commodity valuation, factoring in things like age, cost, control, and risk management in answering the question: which players are most essential to this team's vision? Given the tumult of the past 12 months, updating these rankings felt like a worthy exercise. So let's get to it.20. Nick Gordon, SS (23) 2018 Ranking: 13 A year ago, Gordon was already plagued by questions surrounding his viability at shortstop, as well as the legitimacy of his bat coming off a lackluster second half in Chattanooga. These doubts were only magnified during a rough 2018 campaign that saw him fail to gain any offensive traction in Triple-A (.212/.262/.283 in 99 games) while ceding more time to second base. Of course, he was also a 22-year-old in a league where the average player is considerably older. Assessing Gordon's performance is somewhat tough because he's always been relatively young and undeveloped compared to his competition. But now he's catching up, and it's time to show something. Huge year on deck for the former first-round draft pick. 19. C.J. Cron, 1B (29) 2018 Ranking: N/A While I questioned the fit, Cron was undoubtedly a nifty pickup for the Twins when they grabbed him off waivers from Tampa a month ago. It's not every day you can add an affordable and accomplished hitter, under the age of 30, coming off a breakout season, for nothing. Cron has pedigree – formerly a star collegiate slugger who became a first-round draft pick and has hit consistently in the minors and majors. He has upward momentum, having posted 30 home runs and an .817 OPS in his first full season a big-league regular. He's fairly cheap ($4.8 million in 2019), and controllable in 2020 via arbitration as well. 18. Adalberto Mejia, LHP (25) 2018 Ranking: 14 In 2018, Mejia did the same thing he's done almost nonstop since coming over to the Twins at the 2016 trade deadline: he performed. In 118 1/3 innings at Class-AAA Rochester since the trade, he has a 3.27 ERA, and he's held his own during multiple stints in the big leagues, including this year when he turned in a 2.01 ERA over five appearances for Minnesota. He's a big, burly left-hander with some velocity and the ability to miss bats. The only missing ingredient for Mejia has been sustained durability. He totaled less than 130 innings in 2017 and less than 90 in 2018, plagued by wrist and arm ailments down the stretch. Complicating matters is that Mejia's out of options next spring, which forces the Twins' hand in terms of rostering him. But still, this is a proven, capable left-handed starter with five years of team control ahead. There's a ton of potential value here. 17. Jake Cave, OF (26) 2018 Ranking: N/A Last spring the Twins saw an opportunity to add a player they liked and seized it. Cave had been designated for assignment by the Yankees in a roster crunch, so Minnesota flipped them teenage right-hander Luis Gil to acquire Cave before he had a chance to hit waivers. "He made some adjustments that we thought led to the power surge that he had, and we think those will continue going forward," said Derek Falvey at the time. They did indeed. Cave hit 13 home runs and slugged .473 in 91 games for the Twins. He also showed solid range and ability in the outfield. Granted, there were some troubling indicators to be found in his performance – among them, a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio that suggests volatility in the AVG/OBP columns is likely – but the power is legit. Cave was a savvy add by the front office. 16. Wander Javier, SS (20) 2018 Ranking: 18 Javier missed the entire 2018 season after undergoing shoulder labrum surgery. So how does he manage to move up two slots on this list, you ask? Well, it's mainly because folks that were above him a year ago have either backslid or departed, and Javier's tantalizing potential remains even after his setback. He looked like a true shortstop during his time in the Dominican Summer and Appy Leagues, with plenty of range and arm to handle – perhaps even master – the position. That shouldn't change, as the surgery was for his non-throwing arm. He has some lost time to make up for but Javier is expected back fully healthy in spring training and will be poised to take full-season leagues by storm. This has the makings of an Alex Kirilloff-type situation (Kirilloff was 20th in last year's rankings; you'll find out soon where he checks in this year). Click here to view the article

For a second consecutive offseason, the Minnesota Twins appear legitimately interested in the top available talent from Japan. And for a second consecutive offseason, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that player will wind up elsewhere. But perhaps Minnesota will be luckier with Yusei Kikuchi than they were a year ago with Shohei Ohtani. If they can find a way to land the prized left-hander, it'd be a game-changer in their efforts to bolster the pitching staff.Back in 2009, Kikuchi was a prep phenom for Hanamaki Higashi HS, touching the mid-90s with his fastball as a teenager. As he nearly became the first Japanese player ever to bypass the NPB draft and enter MLB directly out of high school, one of the teams courting him was the Texas Rangers, reportedly offering $7 million. Thad Levine was assistant general manager for the Rangers as they ardently pursued Kikuchi, who opted to remain in Japan at the time. He was also their assistant GM a few years later when they pulled off the landmark Yu Darvish signing. Levine was Minnesota's GM last offseason when Ohtani – a generational two-way talent out of Japan – became available. At the time, Levine made no secret of his desire to land Ohtani, but his Twins didn't make the final cut. Ohtani ended up having a sensational rookie season for the Angels. Now, we turn our attention to Kikuchi. Let's be clear: Ohtani he is not (though they did attend the high school). Kikuchi's upside doesn't approach that of Ohtani as a pitcher, and hitting isn't even part of the equation. But the 27-year-old lefty offers a quality arm that would fit snugly within Minnesota's long-term strategy. "VERY INTERESTED" La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune tweeted on Friday that the Twins "like Kikuchi and have done a deep dive on him." A day later, the perpetually plugged in Darren Wolfson of KSTP added that the team is "very interested," and that Kikuchi has been scouted extensively by some of the organization's top evaluators. It isn't hard to see why Kikuchi would be of great interest to the Twins. First of all, they have plenty of money to spend. Secondly, they could use another starter – ideally a younger one who can pair with Jose Berrios as entrenched rotation fixtures. There is much to like about Kikuchi, who owns a 2.81 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in around 1,000 NPB innings. While it's tempting to draw up glitzy Ohtani comparisons, the more plausible comp is right-hander Miles Mikolas. Mikolas was a former seventh-round draft pick of the Padres who headed to Japan to re-establish himself after washing out of affiliated ball in his mid-20s. During his time with the Yomiuri Giants, he posted numbers that were similar in many ways to Kikuchi with the Saitama Seibu Lions – very strong, but not out-of-this-world overpowering or dominant. Last winter, Mikolas sought to return to the majors at age 28. The Cardinals signed him to a two-year deal worth $15.5 million, and boy has that investment paid off. Mikolas was phenomenal in 2018, finishing 18-4 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 200 innings. He finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting. The two aren't mirror images by any means. Mikolas has superior command, which was his calling card during a stellar reintroduction to the majors. But Kikuchi probably has the better repertoire, highlighted by a swing-and-miss slider. And he's a lefty. Mikolas is an encouraging precedent, both in terms of process and results. The Cards were able to add him cheaply, because of the inherent question marks in translating performance from a foreign league, but he was more than up to the task. Kikuchi will require more to sign than Mikolas, but he'll still be far cheaper than, say, Patrick Corbin (who is incidentally a pretty similar pitcher in the FB/SL southpaw mold). UPHILL BATTLE So the Twins are interested in Kikuchi. Why wouldn't they be? But this brings us to the core issue at hand: so is almost every other team in the majors. And as was the case with Ohtani, the Twins only have so much capacity in their efforts to woo him. Granted, this isn't nearly the same type of scenario that led to Los Angeles committing just $23 million last year to acquire Ohtani, who potential earnings were capped. Changes in the posting system, along with Kikuchi's heightened service time, mean that he'll be an unrestricted free agent in the traditional sense, with the Saitama Seibu Lions receiving a percentage of his eventual contract as a release fee. This actually works to the Twins' benefit. Going against big-market clubs and West Coast teams, they have some built-in disadvantages when it comes to recruiting talent out of Asia, before you even start talking about budget and resources. This ultimately doomed them in their pursuit of Ohtani. But with money being more of a differentiating factor, they have leverage to negotiate. If Minnesota's extensive scouting has created a strong confidence in Kikuchi's outlook, there's no reason the Twins can't hang with any other team in the bidding. They're still about $50 million short of matching their 2018 Opening Day payroll at present. But are they going to be able to outbid and outpitch every other big slugger in this race? The Yankees are known to be interested, and may be motivated after coming up short on Corbin. Kikuchi has been linked to the Padres, Dodgers and Mariners. Giants reporter Henry Schulman reported earlier this month that San Francisco "might be his first choice." Here's one wild card in this whole situation: Kikuchi is represented by Scott Boras. In one sense that's scary, since Boras is a notoriously tough negotiator and is known for brokering some of the biggest contracts in MLB history. But on the other hand, Boras also reps two of Minnesota's most integral long-term pieces: Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. Those two would hopefully slot in alongside Kikuchi within the next few years. Is this advantageous in any way? I have no clue. But it's at least interesting to note. THE CLOCK IS TICKING Kikuchi was posted by the Seibu Lions on December 4th, and his 30-day window for open negotiations will end on January 2nd, so we'll have clarity on the lefty's future within 10 days. La Velle noted, in his tweet on the team's interest, that the Twins "think they won’t be one of the favorites to land him," which is unsurprising. But by all accounts, it looks like they are earnestly trying. If the money is there, and Kikuchi buys into Minnesota's vision of a perennial contender at Target Field fueled by fellow Boras clients Lewis and Kirilloff? Who knows. One thing's for sure: It'd be the kind of splashy addition this fan base could use. Click here to view the article

Good stuff Ted. For those interested in diving deeper on this topic, I wrote a while back about the parallels between Baldelli and Buxton and how they might help build rapport.

You cannot safely make this assumption. Next offseason, those three are all free agents, with 29 other teams able to court and woo. Right now, the Twins have exclusive negotiating rights with each of them, along with some actual leverage. That all disappears a year from now. You are right though: they do have Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia – a quartet with fewer combined MLB innings than Odorizzi (and a MUCH higher combined ERA).

Was he? According to most stats other than ERA, their seasons were actually quite similar. He had a 2.8% HR rate this year compared to 3.3% for his career. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I don't think it's that unfeasible his HR/FB neutralizes somewhat and is offset by his career-high FB rate coming down a bit. In fact, I expect it. I'll also add that I have confidence in the new instructors/analysts (Johnson and Hefner) to be helpful with an altogether promising specimen like Odorizzi. Especially if they aren't inhibited by him and his agent rebuking experimentation.

It was a weird offseason. No one wanted Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb either. But now look at them, both with long-term contracts. I'd hope the Twins aren't making decisions based entirely on group-think.

I'm sure you understand the difference between trying to sign someone on the open market, with their value inflated, vs one year away from the open market with their value depressed. I don't agree they SHOULD be trying to replace Odorizzi. There is a place for a reliably 2+ WAR pitcher, on a 12/13-man pitching staff. Always. Particularly when it's an effective fly-ball pitcher who can miss bats on a team with top-tier OF defense. The quest for exclusive ace-type upside seems to be blinding people.

How many that have done it in 4 of the last 5 years? And can match Odo's youth + career ERA/WHIP/K-rate? And are willing to sign with the Twins on reasonable terms? It's nice to speculate about how the Twins *could* theoretically do better but they have an opportunity to lock down a quality arm, still in his prime, at a potential bargain.

That seems like... over-simplistic analysis. I noted in the piece why I think Odorizzi is capable of reversing his downward trend, and has in fact already begun to do so. I don't think losing 1 MPH over 3 years is all that meaningful. Gibson was also "losing velocity at age 28." These things can ebb and flow. When it comes to outlooks for arms, I'll bet on the guy who's 3 years younger. (Also, guess who had the higher K-rate this year -- and every year -- despite that velo disparity?)

Good pitchers don't always want to sign here. The Twins actually have leverage in negotiating with Odorizzi, and don't have to compete with 29 other clubs (unless they wait). I think some folks tend to underrate the difficulty of luring quality players here (which I believe contributed to the fast action on Cron and Schoop). It's not just about being frugal. And in any case, committing $10M to your 4th/5th SP won't prevent you from doing anything on the market.

His career ERA is under 4 and he's still only 28 so I'm not sure what reason there would be to NOT expect that, especially if you take some steps to limit instances of letting the lineup roll over twice against him.

He's a good arm. The goal is to collect good arms and maximize their positive impact. The flip side of those poor numbers during his third trip through the lineup is that he is extremely good his first two times through. The notion being stated by some here that "pitchers like Odorizzi are available to the Twins every offseason" is wild to me. You've all seen this team's outcome with free agent pitchers... right?

Overrating or overvaluing recent trends is the biggest mistake a team can make with long-term decision-making IMO (haven't we learned that by now?). Odorizzi's track record speaks for itself and -- again -- his "two down years" are better than Gibson's career baseline. So you don't really need to contort any stats to make this case, you have just have to be honest and objective in your assessment. The difference between the two careers is that Gibson's successful runs have been outliers, whereas the opposite has been true for Odo. Odorizzi has been worth 2+ WAR in four of the last five years. If you're worried about the Twins being overloaded with internal guys that can match or surpass that in the next 3 seasons... well... I admire your optimism. This team has ZERO starters locked in with guaranteed deals past 2019, and Odorizzi has solid fallback potential as a reliever, so I have zero concern about what you're mentioning here.