Nick Nelson

Yeah, Rosario is extremely streaky player. That's been enough of a consistent, unyielding reality for him that I don't really try to get stuck explaining the downswings away with injury/team chemistry explanations anymore (though his quad surely slowed him down to some extent in the second half).

A solid-hitting middle IF and corner OF are more replaceable to the Twins than an MLB-ready, 23-year-old power arm who still profiles as a starter (or multi-inning/high-leverage reliever) with 5 6 years of team control remaining (thanks markos). Pretty much comes down to that. Personally I didn't think that ranking would be all that controversial. I was more confused about why I had Romero so low last year, but clearly the durability issues were top-of-mind then.

I don't think that's accurate at all actually. There are enormous differences between the circumstances of those two players. But we can dig into this when Buxton's actually in the article.

How about Chris Carter? Got a tiny one-year deal from the Yankees coming off a 41-HR season, and had averaged 30 bombs in the prior three seasons. Now he's out of the majors. I don't think teams doubt Carter's ability to hit home runs. They just don't find it that valuable on its own. And, sadly, he's probably a much more relevant example with regards to Sano.

This is the third in a four-part series ranking the top 20 player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization. The idea is to think solely in terms of commodity valuation, factoring in things like age, cost, control, and risk management in answering the question: which players are most essential to this team's vision? Already we've looked at Nos. 20 through 16 and Nos. 15 through 11. Today we dive into the top ten.10. Taylor Rogers, LHP (28) 2018 Ranking: 15 In 2017, it looked like Rogers might be starting to emerge as one of the better relief pitchers in all of baseball. In 2018, he hammered that distinction home. While logging career highs in innings (68.1) and appearances (72), the southpaw posted numbers that rivaled some of the game's best, ranking 11th among MLB relievers in WAR (1.9), ninth in FIP (2.33) and 10th in WHIP (0.95). Thanks in part to a curveball that rates statistically as one of the best in the majors, Rogers has become a shutdown force, leaving behind his prior billing as a lefty matchup specialist. The unheralded bullpen hero has quietly developed into one of baseball's most valuable relievers, and the Twins control him for another three years. 9. Max Kepler, OF (26) 2018 Ranking: 7 Kepler has been the subject of exhaustive discussion this offseason, here and elsewhere. He's an interesting specimen, in that he has gone through various phases as a hitter but his production has perpetually stayed in the same average-ish range. He's an exceptional defender in right field, and seemingly a solid one in center, which is helpful for the Twins given Byron Buxton's durability issues. The athleticism, commitment and tools are there. He's shown a reasonably high floor, turns 26 in February, and is still under team control for four more years. These things have value, and will lead to solid offers if the Twins are indeed shopping him this winter. But if Kepler continues to stagnate offensively, the fleeting intrigue further diminishes. 8. Eddie Rosario, OF (27) 2018 Ranking: 5 Although he had huge moments and earned our team MVP honors this year, Rosario was actually a tick worse offensively in 2018 than 2017. His defense improved, making him a more valuable all-around player by most measures, but the outfielder has sorta settled into his norm as a very good – but not great – hitter who has stretches of total dominance (as well as an electric playmaker). Reaching arbitration for the first time this offseason with some strong numbers to build his case, Rosario's window of ultra-low cost is reaching its end, but he's still controlled for three more years. It's not unthinkable he finds another gear, but if this is who Eddie is, he's a good one to have around. 7. Jorge Polanco, SS (25) 2018 Ranking: 6 In late March it was announced that Polanco tested positive for a PEDs, resulting in an 80-game suspension. It was an unfortunate turn of events but he took care of his business, showed up ready to roll in July, and put up rock-solid numbers the rest of the way (.288/.345/.427 in 77 games). Polanco didn't accrue service time during his ban so the Twins still control him through 2022, his age-28 season. His impressive showing on offense this year was offset somewhat by defensive regression, casting further doubt on his future at shortstop, but he remains usable there. And regardless, a switch-hitting middle infielder who's a reliable source of above-average offense is gonna be plenty valuable. 6. Fernando Romero, RHP (24) 2018 Ranking: 12 A year ago, the highly talented Romero was docked in these rankings by one sole factor: durability. In 2017 he wore down in mid-August, hitting the wall shortly after surpassing 100 innings. His lengthy history of injuries cast some doubt on the flamethrower's ability to hold up. This year, he logged 146 innings between Triple-A and the majors, pitching into September for the first time ever. He debuted in the majors at age 23 and showed flashes of dominance, catching the league's attention with his upper-90s heat and 0.54 ERA through three MLB starts. I wouldn't say he totally erased the durability concerns, as he still seemed to lose steam over the course of the summer, but Romero took an important step forward. His powerful arm is destined to play a major role in 2019 and beyond. RECAPPING THE RANKINGS: 20. Nick Gordon, SS 19. C.J. Cron, 1B 18. Adalberto Mejia, LHP 17. Jake Cave, OF 16. Wander Javier, SS 15. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP 14. Miguel Sano, 3B 13. Kyle Gibson, RHP 12. Trevor May, RHP 11. Mitch Garver, C 10. Taylor Rogers, LHP 9. Max Kepler, OF 8. Eddie Rosario, OF 7. Jorge Polanco, SS 6. Fernando Romero, RHP Click here to view the article

It seems to me like the Twins have taken steps to account for Sano being less of a factor this year, loading up on additional right-handed power with Cruz, Schoop and Cron – though admittedly they don't have much of a viable backup plan at third unless Schoop can play there. But I have no issue with your reasoning here. In terms of which players CAN make the biggest impact on turning the Twins back into a contender in 2019, Sano is top 5, no doubt. But the risk levels with him are huge and everything was pointing the wrong direction at the end of the 2018 season. It's both, I'm sure. Your point is a fair one, but there's no denying that power hitting has lost some market value, right? Cron being acquired through waivers off a breakout 30-HR campaign is another example.

Well, last year the Twins got Logan Morrison coming off a 38 HR campaign for peanuts, so I do think there's plenty of evidence that the ability to hit home runs – without much added defensive value or broader offensive skill – is losing its shine. But I do agree completely with your last paragraph. Sano is plenty capable of being much more than that.

Well, if we extend the sample, he has held opponents to a .229/.296/.398 line with a 32% K-rate (12.1 K/9) in 100 career relief innings. You don't just fluke your way into a 15% swinging strike rate against MLB hitters. The guy's stuff is unbelievable out of the pen, and – to me at least – it's quite evident from watching him. It absolutely baffles me that someone can say they watched him throughout September and he merely "worked his way back into the mix." That's not exactly a fair way to look at it, given he was mostly a reliever before the missed time. May ranked second on the team in appearances between 2015/16. He never missed time in the minors. This notion that Trevor May isn't durable is just so weird to me. Undergoing TJ surgery doesn't make you injury-prone, it makes you a typical major-league pitcher.

It's a combination of all those things, weighted in my own (admittedly vague and subjective) manner. When you come to terms with the fact that these rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and established performance (the idea for me is akin to stocks going up and down) the methodology should become easier to understand. Maybe not. Also, I did these same rankings last year so I dunno why people keep acting like it's a random idea that materialized solely due to the circumstances of this offseason. The objective is taking stock of what's currently on hand and how it figures into the plan going forward. And to try and chart the movement that takes place from year-to-year. People want him to be a starter because he's never really gotten a full shot and has four quality pitches. He came back from TJ surgery throwing 94 MPH with his fastball and inducing a 15% swinging strike rate, which would rank top-15 among qualified MLB relievers. When used as an actual reliever (so, subtracting the one outing as "opener") he had a 1.85 ERA and 2.23 xFIP When you say, "If numbers make him seem good then look at other numbers," then cite a relatively arbitrary one like IR%, it makes it sound like you're the one with the agenda, not everyone else.

Opinion, I guess, based on the fact that Cruz has averaged 40+ HR and been extremely durable the last 5 years while Sano has never hit more than 28 and never played 120 games in an MLB season. Fwiw, FanGraphs projects Cruz to hit 37 next year and Sano to hit 29 (which seems generous to me based on his broken plate approach and injury history). Are you aware of how good he was this year upon returning? His numbers across the board were on par with the game's best relievers. In what way is he overrated?

Um, Cruz is a MUCH better bet to reach 20 or 40 home runs in either of the next two years than Sano at this point. That's not even debatable. And then Sano has one year of control remaining after that. Sano's age obviously does work in his favor but his trend line has been moving consistently downward for some time and he has established a new floor.

Before, and a good point. Once this list is published completely, I think it'll be interesting to discuss how Cruz's presence may alter some of the other rankings (not to mention where he'd place). A reasonable take, to be sure. Sano's ranking is basically meant to reflect the enormous amount of risk attached to him as an asset now. I don't think he can succeed as a guy who strikes out almost 40% of the time and walks less than 10% of the time but that's become his reality. His health and durability are complete question marks. His defensive value is a mystery. The question isn't whether he'll turn things around and turn into a quality player. The question is whether he'll do it here. Right now he's got a long way to go and as I wrote, the clock is ticking. For the record, I am personally a believer in Sano and I think he'll rejuvenate his status this year. I just don't think that can be counted on. I'm curious to hear why people feel differently. I mean, the Twins just acquired an almost guaranteed 40-HR hitter, who was openly available, for nothing but $14m on a one-year deal. So we really need to ask ourselves how valuable that trait on its own is.

Haha, whew. A couple nuggets of food for thought before I go to bed and wake up to a hell storm. Since appearing in the 2017 All Star Game, Miguel Sano has: * Hit .210/.291/.370 in 437 plate appearances * Played in 103 of a possible 236 games for the Twins * Struck out at a 38% rate, with only 9% walks * Suffered two serious injuries to the same leg, each lingering into the offseason * Been optioned straight to Single-A Because these are annually updated rankings, I'm attempting to heavily factor recent track record into the equation. You can argue I'm going too far with that here, and you might be right. But in the last 17 months Sano's stock has been on a steady downward plane.

Just to pre-empt any, "Are you saying Garver would get more back in a trade than Sano??" objections, that's not exactly the point of this exercise. I'm evaluating not in terms of what players would be worth independently, if the team shut it down and sold off all parts. I'm evaluating based on their value to the franchise's current path and vision. Trade value comes into play, but not really in a case like this, because there's no reason to trade Sano at this moment in time. It'd be silly. That said, welcoming all comments/questions/debate!

This is the second in a four-part series ranking the top 20 player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization. The idea is to think solely in terms of commodity valuation, factoring in things like age, cost, control, and risk management in answering the question: which players are most essential to this team's vision? Last week we looked at Nos. 20 through 16. Today we continue the countdown with Nos. 15 through 11.15. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP (24) 2018 Ranking: 10 In some ways, Gonsalves took a big step forward in 2018. He pitched brilliantly over 100 innings at Triple-A, solidifying his supremacy over minor-league hitters. He then received his first promotion to the big leagues, making seven appearances for the Twins in August and September. Gonsalves' MLB debut was a mixed bag. He was brutal in his first four starts (11.68 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in 12 1/3 innings) then excelled in three appearances as a "primary" (1.46 ERA and 1.05 WHIP). The true pitcher lies somewhere in between these two extremes, but there were enough troubling signs during his time with the Twins (shoddy control, untenably low 6% swinging strike rate) to cast serious doubt on his viability as anything more than a back-of-rotation starter. Not that this is without value – especially at a low cost. 14. Miguel Sano, 3B (25) 2018 Ranking: 4 It was a rough, rough year for the third baseman, who saw his stock plummet like a mile-high fly ball hurtling down to Earth. Seemingly never quite right after undergoing major surgery on his leg during the previous offseason, Sano played poorly enough to merit a demotion all the way to Single-A in June. He made his way back six weeks later but didn't look much better, and played only four games in September due to another leg injury. The innate talent that resides within Sano is plainly obvious, but so too is the reality at hand: if he doesn't reverse course, he's on his way to going from promising young slugger to marginal asset – chronically dinged up, obscenely strikeout-prone, defensively inflexible, and generally unproductive. (This is also known as the Oswaldo Arcia Path.) He's got much to prove, and it starts with completing his ambitious offseason conditioning program, which the Twins are monitoring closely. If he comes back in improved shape, with his left leg issues finally behind him, maybe that talent starts to reemerge. Few players can hit or throw the ball as hard. Sano is eligible for arbitration this offseason for the first time, meaning free agency is only three years away. The clock ticks on his turnaround. 13. Kyle Gibson, RHP (31) 2018 Ranking: N/A At long last, things came together for Gibson. For many years, his arsenal showed the potential to overpower big-league hitters, but that didn't really come to fruition. In the latter half of 2017 he seemingly turned a corner, and then he backed it up big-time in 2018. His 11.5% swinging strike rate was easily a career high, edging Jose Berrios (11.3%) to lead the rotation. Gibson's performance wasn't flawless by any means, but he was steady and effective, bringing length to a starting corps that needed it. As long as he stays healthy in 2019 there's little reason to expect a step back. The factors suppressing his ranking on this list are age (turned 31 in October), cost (likely to make around $9 million in 2019), and control (free agent after next season). 12. Trevor May, RHP (29) 2018 Ranking: 19 It's not clear yet how the Twins plan to deploy May going forward. He might be a closer, after looking awfully good in the role down the stretch. He might be a bullpen fireman, called upon in tight spots to unleash his elite swing-and-miss stuff. He might be a multi-inning long reliever, given his historically strong and durable arm. And I still happen to think he could be a pretty good starter. This much is clear: May is an awfully nice piece for the Twins to have around, and a real game-changer for their pitching staff. He is under control for two more years and will remain inexpensive in 2019, since he's spent most of the past two seasons rehabbing. 11. Mitch Garver, C (28) 2018 Ranking: N/A A few weeks ago, I posed an open question: Is Mitch Garver still a catcher? I'm not sure we definitively know the answer, but the general assumption right now seems to be "yes." And if so, he's a borderline Top 10 asset to the organization. This is true because of the scarcity he addresses – Jason Castro is one year away from free agency and the system lacks any high-level catching depth – but also because he's just shown to be a solid player at the position. Garver's rookie production, which progressively improved over the summer, was above-average for a catcher. Reviews on his defense varied but he did show some positive signs of improvement and making adjustments. Turning 28 in a couple weeks, he's not young relative to others in this emerging core, but he's inexpensively controllable for years to come. With that said, concussion concerns will hang over him until he goes a prolonged period without incidents or setbacks. RECAPPING THE RANKINGS: 20. Nick Gordon, SS 19. C.J. Cron, 1B 18. Adalberto Mejia, LHP 17. Jake Cave, OF 16. Wander Javier, SS 15. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP 14. Miguel Sano, 3B 13. Kyle Gibson, RHP 12. Trevor May, RHP 11. Mitch Garver, C Click here to view the article

Having rambled all that out, I am hereby retiring from all Cron/Gordon debate. I'm trying my hardest to clearly convey what I'm going for with this series, and I'm glad some folks seem to get it, but I feel I'm just repeating myself now. Rest of the rankings are coming next week (M/W/F). I suspect we'll have less confusion around these comparative valuations as we move away from the fringes and into the top 15.

This isn't strictly a ranking of trade value! That's literally been stated multiple times on this thread. I'm sorry to say it man, but if you're getting so vexed maybe it's because you're reading what you want to read instead of what's being written. Teams don't usually make a habit of just trading prospects randomly left and right, so to me, it doesn't make sense to think in those terms. Could they trade Gordon right now? I'm sure they could, though it'd require finding a partner that has a need, and likes his scouting reports more than his track record, and has something to offer that you want (Ohm by the way, you'd be dealing a former first-round pick with his value at the lowest point it's ever been! Sounds unsmart.) When you talk about what a "Gorden-esque prospect" would net in a trade, in some vacuum, you're completely missing the point of this exercise. That's all very theoretical. I'm dealing with the facts at hand, which are these: Cron is the Twins' starting first baseman, and before Cruz he was arguably their best power bat. Nick Gordon is occupying a 40-man roster spot as a total question mark. The hope that he can rebound and take over Schoop's roster spot in 2020 is the reason he's on this list, over several prospects that I actually feel are better.

Yeah, I think you've got it right. Cron would slide out of the top 20 now that they have Cruz, who's basically just a much better version – minus the ability to stand at first – controllable for the same timespan.

FWIW: Seth, Cody and Tom had Gordon ranked as the 12th/13th/8th best prospect in the Twins system in the Prospect Handbook. Complaining about arguments not supported by facts, while calling Nick Gordon a "borderline top 100 prospect" is odd to me. Numerous prospects that are arguably better than Gordon and didn't make this list at all. Let's just come to grips with this – the methodology here is heavily weighted against non-elite prospect types because they don't offer either of the following: 1) short-term value for a team that's trying to win now/soon, or 2) the proper combination of upside/safety to outweigh #1 with their future value.

Twins FO didn't agree with what? I never said they'd be inclined to trade Gordon for Cron, or that I would do so. Cron was not in demand. This is understood. He's not valued as an asset around the league because there's no scarcity of his player type. But these rankings are not about objective value, they are about a player's value specific to the Twins, which is why all these references to what other teams would trade for someone are missing the point. The Twins jumped on Cron because he filled a very large need for them, which is not a large need for most other teams. Nick Gordon, conversely, would be much more valuable to a team that doesn't already have Wander Javier and Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis and Luis Arraez in the system. Thinking about how these players fit into the context of this organization's makeup and vision going forward is what makes this exercise interesting to me. Ranking players simply as trade assets, in a vacuum, not as much.

Replace with what? Which readily available players are out there to replace Cron and Cave – who are important players to this team, right now – at the same age/control/cost? You can talk about trading for theoretical better players but that's all just speculation and I'm trying to assess what's currently on hand. I think it's real debatable whether Gordon has the lofty trade value you imply. Certainly not on the basis of anything other than subjective scouting and hopeful projection.

Maybe. But here's the real question that gets to the essence of what these rankings are about: If you were in the Twins' position, and Gordon was in another organization, would you trade Cron or Cave for him right now? You can certainly argue it'd be a reasonable talent swap – even a great buy-low deal – but I don't see how you can argue it'd make sense for the Twins as currently composed.

The reason "trade value" doesn't work as a blanket rule is that it's going to inherently undervalue a player type that's not in league-wide demand. As a reliably solid but unspectacular offensive first baseman, Cron might not be hugely enticing to MLB at large but he's valuable to the Twins who don't necessarily have anyone else to fill that role in the next couple seasons (at present). Meanwhile, of course some other team would trade more to acquire Gordon, in hopes of acquiring a middle infielder who does enough to be a quality contributor in a position of scarcity. From the Twins' perspective though, with the depth of young middle-infield talent they already have on hand? I dunno, he just doesn't seem all that essential. Again, it's a snapshot in time. Maybe that helps explain my thought process? Maybe not. Editing to add: Nelson Cruz is a good example of what I'm trying to articulate. He's been the best power hitter in baseball over the past decade yet no one would trade much for him. Hell, barely anyone courted him as a free agent. But would anyone try to argue he's a lesser asset to the team right now than Gordon, or several other prospects that clearly have more long-term value? (Full disclosure: Cruz won't be in these rankings because I already had them all put together and don't wanna screw around with them, but maybe we can try to place him once it's all said and done)