Twins Fans, Welcome to the Offseason

Maybe we can start with players the Twins should avoid?

I suggested the Twins look at Machado.

I completely rescind that suggestion after watching him play in the World Series.

Machado is tempting.  Heck of a talent.   Don't really like him as a person.   And think the Twins would be wise to spend his $30+ million per year on 2-4 different players.  

Wonder if Machado is kinda like a Pierzynski type.  Where you like him when he's on your team, but loathe him when he's not.    Oriole fans may have more of a insight on that.

 And think the Twins would be wise to spend his $30+ million per year on 2-4 different players.  

 

 

 No, 100%. Buy a stud, or don't buy at all. Doing what you suggest here is how you end up with Logan Morrison's, or Ricky Nolascos. I'd rather they just fill in with players from their minor leagues than shop in the bargain bin, then aim higher when they identify someone studly they want. Does it have to be this year? No, and it doesn't have to be Machado. But the C level free agent should be a thing of the past for this team unless it is filling a hole that there is no one in their system able to do so.

 No, 100%. Buy a stud, or don't buy at all. Doing what you suggest here is how you end up with Logan Morrison's, or Ricky Nolascos. I'd rather they just fill in with players from their minor leagues than shop in the bargain bin, then aim higher when they identify someone studly they want. Does it have to be this year? No, and it doesn't have to be Machado. But the C level free agent should be a thing of the past for this team unless it is filling a hole that there is no one in their system able to do so.

I'm not saying you're wrong. What I was trying to say was spend the money on someone(s) not named Machado. I didn't convey that well.

 No, 100%. Buy a stud, or don't buy at all. Doing what you suggest here is how you end up with Logan Morrison's, or Ricky Nolascos. I'd rather they just fill in with players from their minor leagues than shop in the bargain bin, then aim higher when they identify someone studly they want. Does it have to be this year? No, and it doesn't have to be Machado. But the C level free agent should be a thing of the past for this team unless it is filling a hole that there is no one in their system able to do so.

I don't think you have looked at the production of the "studs" in an objective way. Some of the big name / big spend guys have worked out great. More have been mediocre to downright horrible. The best case scenario with the big dollar guys is you get what you pay for. Over achievement or value is rarely obtained. It does not matter as much if you have the Twins revenue + another $150M to play with but it's a killer for a mid-market team if players with big contracts don't deliver.  There are very few that deliver good value over the course of the entire contract. Let's look at some of the studs from the past couple years.

Darvish – 6yrs / $126M – WAR of 0
Arietta – 3 yrs / $75M WAR of 2.0
Cobb – 4yrs / $57M – WAR of 1.0
Chapman 5yrs / $86M – Combined WAR of 3.5 for 2017-18.
Jansen / 5yrs / $80M – Combined WAR of 4 for 2017-18 (.4 for 2018)
Eric Hosmer 8yrs/ $144 – 2018 WAR of -.1
Cespedes – 4yrs / $110M – 2017 WAR of 2.1 2018 – 0 WAR (injured)
Desmond – 5 yrs / $70M – Combined WAR of -1.5 for 2017-18
Fowler – 5yrs / $82M – Combined WAR of 1.3 for 2017-18
Let’s not forget the disastrous contracts of Jason Heyward & Chris Davis.

Guys like these can really help a team while keeping enough payroll open to keep our core

Mikolas – 2yrs / $15.5 - WAR of 4.3

Hill – 4yrs / $48M – Combined WAR of 4.5 for 2017-18
Morton – 2yrs / $14M – WAR of 6.3 over the 2 years (2017-18)
Lowrie – 3yrs / $23M - Combined WAR of 8.5 for 2017-18

You might be right, I have just had enough of the Lance Lynn types, or Logan Morrison's. etc. Just feel as if these spots could be filled from within the organization. At best these types of signings turn into average or slightly below average players for us most times.

Maybe you don't have to buy big name free agents. Maybe trading for the type of studs needed and then extending them would be the way to go?

I just am of the belief that improving the talent level and getting ballplayers with high ceilings is in order. Is there some risk in that? For sure. But I just don't feel the mid level range type of players are going to get us anywhere.