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DFlow

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Everything posted by DFlow

  1. DFlow
    The Twins need to commit to tanking this season. It is not enjoyable to say; however, the Twins had an extremely narrow path pre-Pablo injury to make a playoff run. Post Pablo injury- looking at trades for Joe Ryan and Trevor Larnach (from this article) are way too logical to ensure we build the next wave of talent. Feeling a roster squeeze for Austin Martin and Alan Roden seems ridiculous to trot out guys like Larnach and Waggaman who do not have long term futures with the organization. We have given Larnach substantial opportunity over four years to become a major league regular and that has not materialized. Further- he is unplayable in the field. The left handed bat is fine but it's such a narrow path for what has always been just an average to a tick above bat. Whether we like it or not- Martin has given this team juice multiple times in the past with his speed and on base ability. He provides complimentary baseball to our roster and there is value there. Roden has such limited MLB reps and his all around game could round out into a MLB regular with plus defense in the corner. Even James Outman has had high quality seasons in the past and deserves a look with his quality defense over Larnach(though he will have to fix that hole in his swing). To me the outfield should be: LF: Roden/Martin Platoon CF: Buxton/Outman RF: Wallner Minors: E-Rod & Jenkins will be ready this year With a young staff - I'd rather lean more reps for Wallner in the DH role than Larnach opening up more outfield defense for our young pitching staff. Let's see what we have for long term candidates versus guys who provide little value.
  2. DFlow
    As we saw at the deadline outside of Duran - picking up quality bullpen arms is fairly manageable. I expect we will be turning some deals before the 40 man cut off to get at least one to two bullpen arms to shore up that front. As much as I like Mendez and Gonzalez- I see them as fairly similar prospects and it would make sense they could tag up in a deal (unless one of them magically adds 1B).
  3. DFlow
    Bader is not going to pull back a hot prospect but could he pull in a quality reclamation project? I think of a guy like Kevin Parada who makes a lot of sense. Two years removed from the Twins almost drafting him and going 11th overall. Good change of scenary candidate and adds catching depth to the system.
  4. DFlow
    Honestly I think the K rate is overblown. It's coming down a bit and you accept the good at the bad with Wallner/Buxton. These two already force the pitchers into uncomfortable positions and I think the at bats are fairly competitive even when they strikeout now. This was a bigger issue a year ago when the whole roster had inflated K rates, but outside of Castro the K rates are well down from a year ago. These hitters really put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers which is exciting to see and I think adding a guy like Santana really helps offset your Buxton and Wallners in the lineup with his patient approach.
  5. DFlow
    With a healthy Stewart I believe this team should be looking at postseason openers for most games. I think if Pablo shows more of what he’s done the past month we can say he’s back but overall the long ball is scary. I’d also feel better if Ryan/Ober were pitching Games 3&4 as they would matchup well there in a series. It’s a little unorthodox to have openers in the playoffs but we would have a deep enough bullpen with a healthy Stewart to justify a high leverage guy starting the game against your Gunnar Henderson, Aaron Judges, and Juan Soto’s of the world and allow starters to go deeper into games by only hitting the core guys twice. My opinion on having the offense bail you out just doesn’t really work in October. I can point to 15 years of Twins teams as examples with elite offenses that can’t overcome our mediocre starters. The Twins are going to have to get strategic to a whole new level if they are going to make a run.
  6. DFlow
    This would be a classic Twins trade from the 2004-2017 eras where it’s a minor trade to help you in season, but not for the post season. That speaks volumes as to why the Twins didn’t win anything during that time frame in the postseason. Kikuchi is not a playoff starter. That’s pretty basic as his ERA and stuff are not good enough to pitch in October (as we saw last year against him). The only SP rental upgrades is Flaherty. A dream trade here would be Flaherty for Gonzalez & Raya (two fringe 100 guys). If the Twins will accept a guy with an extra year of term, Fedde, Eovaldi (w/vesting op), and Eflin are upgrades but I don’t see it happening with the state of the Twins finances. The reality is don’t settle for someone who can’t help you in October. You may as well just roll with Paddack or a young guy otherwise.
  7. DFlow
    None. Kikuchi is not a playoff starting pitcher (backed by statcast and last years usage against us). Bassitt is a safe playoff #4 pitcher but we can’t do that salary next year. Gausmann would be way too much of a gamble for the Twins as his statcast is horrific and the contract is not realistic for the Twins. The Twins will only do expiring or a early/pre-arb guy based on next years cash crunch.
  8. DFlow
    Look at some of the early returns from quality pitchers like Berrios & Gausman. You can even go back in time and look at Glavine & Clemens (no suggesting he is that good but for debuts). The reality is that pitching requires major adjustments coming from AAA to the Majors. Unless you have otherwordly stuff like Skenes, you have to make adjustments to your stuff to keep missing bats. He's going to go down and work on much of this as the straight fastball is already a known issue. Sacrificing a little velocity for more movement I would assume is the way here.
  9. DFlow
    Honestly hoping for a Wallner + lottery ticket for Erik Fedde type deal. Win for both teams. Twins get a #3 Playoff starter with great peripherals that doubles as insurance in case of an injury.
  10. DFlow
    I think it’s smart to note that deadline sellers overwhelmingly win the WAR game thanks to duration. The Twins could have a 10+ WAR swing in the Nelson Cruz trade for Joe Ryan when it’s all said and done, but the trade from the Rays side will always make sense when trying to win that year, The bigger question is does the asset brought in fulfill the role needed IMO. I think it’s also important to address that 40 man crunch candidates that we have offloaded in trades have resulted in some of the guys in the article being shipped out. The Falvey era has led to an infusion of major league quality players on the farm and that has made the 40 man discussions that much harder in recent years. Even looking at MLB Pipeline’s Top 30, that is a deep list of good players that we can’t possibly fit on a 40 man. Leveraging those tweeners from our depth helps a lot with these trades but also is a necessity of the prospect development improvement of the Falvey era.
  11. DFlow
    To be clear- something is wrong with the hitting methodology deployed in 2023 and 2024. Veterans have had historically poor seasons now with a lot of evidence only to be saved by an unparalleled class of prospects last year. Now two of those same players have been in the MLB level hitting program and Julien/Wallner both aren’t quite themselves this year. This comes down to two things for me: 1) Lack of situational hitting: this team is horrific when it comes to understanding scenarios. Moving runners, putting the ball in play with no outs and a runner on third, etc. two often we see a Buck strikeout here putting double plays or a final out in play. This has to be buttoned up moving forward. 2)Lack of a Strength Based Approach: Every hitter is different and this team needs to put there success profile at the forefront. This hitting model is perfect for Jeffers, but obviously isn’t for Kiriloff/Correa/Julien. These guys are great at going the other way with the baseball and we want to ensure we aren’t screwing with their methodology that makes them successful. Going up and trying to pull homers everytime hasn’t really worked since the juiced ball. It’s time to manufacture runs based on everyone’s strengths.
  12. DFlow
    I think the challenging part would be the opt outs as we still have five years of control here. Paying 3-4x as much as going the traditional route for an opt out in Year 7 makes no sense IMO. I think the Twins have all the leverage here with these five years of control and Royce’s health issues. If they can get them to be team options instead then I would be 100% on board (a bumped up version of the Polanco deal). Otherwise- I think you let this play out. He’s had so little experience in the league too that I’m curious how pitchers adapt to him this year anyways. Year 8/9/10 team options for 25/27.5/30 feels like we could get it done.
  13. DFlow
    If the Brewers are in sell mode, I’d trade Brooks Lee, Joe Ryan, and David Festa for Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta.
  14. DFlow
    Alonso is a fun player and one who fits the Twins……just not on a one year deal for Rodriguez. A top 50 prospect can net a frontline starter (as evidenced by your Scherzer and Verlander points) which is more sorely needed for this roster. If you could net Alonso for Kiriloff or another upside prospect I’d be interested but right now I think we need to focus on shoring up the playoff quality pitching with our limited funds and prospect capital.
  15. DFlow
    Depth is great but it doesn’t win in October pitching wise. The Twins for the first time in 17 years came in with a frontline starter into the playoffs who can matchup against other teams starters (they had two). Shocker- they won playoff games. The Twins will need to acquire or buy another frontline starter this offseason with Gray departing at minimum. Depth is great for finances and winning in the regular season. Constantly being able to churn out competent back of the rotation starters is very valuable for winning consistently because you can invest your money on frontline pitching. Guys like Ryan, Ober, and Varland make life a lot easier on minimum deals so you can drop 20+ on Pablo and another 20+ on another top guy. If we can magically learn how to churn out one homegrown frontline starter, we will be major contenders.
  16. DFlow
    This article is great and all, but this can be summed up that we have playoff pitching for the first time in 17 years. This major playoff losing streak has been in action due to having guys like Ervin Santana, Boof Bonser, Nick Blackburn, or Carl Pavano pitching in playoff games that they have no business pitching in. There are plenty of guys behind them who would not even be #4 pitchers on contending playoff teams. The playoffs are all about matchups and for the first time the Twins can come in with some frontline pitching in Lopez/Gray. Should be exciting.
  17. DFlow
    Ideal playoff lineup Lewis-LF Julien-2B Kiriloff-1B Polanco-3B Wallner-DH Correa-SS Buxton-CF Jeffers-C Kepler-RF
  18. DFlow
    He’s the right type of player to acquire but unlikely now given the Angels want to go for it. The ugly question coming up is who is going to have to leave the roster. With Wallner staying, we have an upcoming roster crunch with Polanco and Lewis returning shortly. Solano makes a lot of sense due to lack of positional flexibility but wouldn’t discount Farmer either. A SS needy team may come calling and Castro has been brilliant covering every position this year.
  19. DFlow
    This is a very easy pass due to overpay. Let’s hit your points: -Can’t hit lefties: he’s had 41 ABs this year against lefties. Not exactly a strong sample size and his minors batting is fine against lefties. - Plays 1B: He is a fine LF. We just have Gallo there for now. You can move AK to LF tomorrow if the team sold Gallo while acquiring Goldschmidt. -Power: it’s early to make a call on his power. With six opposite way HRs the power is clearly there. He’s just learning to trust his wrist. In my opinion, this article is a little hyperbolic on AK’s skills. He’s shown he’s at worst a high average, high on base LF. This team needs this in the lineup.
  20. DFlow
    Holy overreaction. Some people need to relax. He’s literally one year to the day of being drafted and has met pretty much everyone except for your expectation. To expect a star is also outside the scope of what most would consider Lee (even when drafting him). He was always projected as a quality regular with all star upside (that’s a 3-4 WAR guy). He’s 22 and should debut at 23. Everything you could have asked for.
  21. DFlow
    This feels like another Popkins issue. We have too many hitters having career worst batting years for this to not be attributed to the offensive philosophy. Miranda ascended to the Twins with high contact rates and a compact approach. His swing this year looks absolutely wild, which appears to be the FO trying to unlock more power. I’m fine with FO making swing or pitching adjustments, but not to the hitters approach. We need to be making the best hitter/pitcher based on the persons unique skills rather than trying to change who they are. I’m just worried if we screwed up Miranda’s development here.
  22. DFlow
    I think this is an interesting topic moving forward as this is very anti-consumer. We have had games this year on Bally, ESPN, Apple, and Peacock. I don't live in MN anymore so I have to purchase MLB.TV, and I've had quite a few games this year where it's blacked out due to Apple and Peacock. I think everyone accepts when they want to watch sports that they need to buy cable to get the channel to watch there team on. Ensuring you have four different channels with two of them being exclusive streamers is very overboard by MLB.
  23. DFlow
    We just went through his with Pagan. He had three good months and he's reverted back to who he has always been the past three years. Trevor Megill had three good months last year before going back to who he always was. Both of these guys statcasts look like the second coming of Prime Chapman compared to Jorge Lopez. The reality is "Stuff" only matters if you can properly locate your pitches. If this were a situation where he changed his arm slot or saw a noticeable increase in velo/spin rate than we could be having a conversation. Good stuff that's center cut gets belted which is what has happened since we acquired Lopez. A lot of meatballs wont play in the bigs which is why his exit velocity data and xBA/xSLGs are so horrific. For perspective- these data points combined put him in the bottom 10% of baseball. That's someone who should be on the road to St. Paul rather then in a leverage situation. Best case scenario- we drop Pagan at the deadline for a quality medium leverage guy. Lopez can work his way up from the last spot and try and build confidence. I'm not trying to bury the guy but the data is overwhelmingly bad. With an abysmal offense, this team does not have a lot of room for error from the bullpen sadly. Putting Lopez in any leverage situation right now seems like a catastrophe waiting to happen (Pagan 2022).
  24. DFlow
    It’s about empirical evidence. The reality is Jorge Lopez doesn’t have any track record of MLB success and has demonstrated struggles in the mental aspect of the game. I can name you dozens of players who had a great three months and went on to mediocre/nothing burger careers. We also have to show that the underlying data points are horrific. His statcast page looks like a AA pitcher being forced into the big leagues. His xBA, xSLG, Hard Hit %, Avg. Exit Velocity, Whiff %, and K% are horrific over a large sample size. This was consistent with what we saw last fall after acquisition too. His pitch sequencing has been fairly questionable and he lets his emotions get the best of him on the mound. Half of those meatballs from this year were after his little anger spouts on the mound. This is also in stark contrast to Griffin Jax. Jax had a rough month earlier this year but the data showed very strong data points for statistical correction. Since May, Jax is the pitcher we thought he was after a bit of bad luck. Lopez; however, creates his own bad luck. Right now there’s no tangible data to say he’s any better than a Derek Law or Trevor Megill type reliever. Guys with good fastballs who can’t get the mental side of the game down. That’s why they bounce between AAA and the Bigs. He’s a great guy to have as your last guy in the pen or in your AAA system if he were young enough. Our only problem is we have another basket case in Pagan holding that role now.
  25. DFlow
    Do I want the guy to succeed? Yes. Has he proven any level of success in his career outside of the first three months of 2022? No. Sometimes guys can find it later in their career. Most of the time, they are the same cooked dog they always have been with a stroke of luck mixed in.
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