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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Rec. this! Exactly how I felt today. Wow.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Well, if everyone is healthy and hitting at or near their best, I don’t have Urshela or Sanchez in my starting eight position players or at DH. I guess you could argue about Urshela vs. Larnach for the final position player start.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Essentially missing five of our nine starting position players (including DH): Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach and Jeffers. That list includes our entire starting outfield folks. Are Arraez, Correa, Polanco and Miranda - plus our second stringers at 3B (Urshela) and catcher (Sanchez) - enough to carry this team to a playoff win even with the pitching additions today? It’s a tall order. Especially if we can’t field weak ground balls to the first baseman or sustain developing rallies. After all, even the best pitching could use a clean defensive game and a little better consistent production at the plate. Lets go get a win tomorrow,
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Nice win - the team showed lots of heart to keep at it to produce a W. The bottom of the 9th though was classic Twins lack of fundamentals baseball. 1st and 2nd with no outs is followed by a K on three failed bunt attempts, a long fly that would’ve won the game if the bunt had been successful, and Gordon getting picked off 3rd on ball four which would have loaded the bases for baseball’s best hitter. Hard to make that up. Oh well, let’s get ‘em again today!
  5. Nashvilletwin
    A lot of good, thoughtful comments on this thread. Personally, I’d hate to see us move Miranda, Arraez, Kiriloff, Jeffers or Larnach. We shouldn’t sacrifice any of them for the mistakes the FO made re the pitching staff this year. They, along with Lewis and Steer, and possibly Wallner, should be the core solid major leaguers who are controllable and cheap. With Buxton and, hopefully Correa, that would make nine solid position players with only two costing essentially above league mandated/arbitration minimums (based on service year). Celestino and Gordon plus Palacio are cheap utility players. If Correa leaves, we still have Palacio and Lewis (and Miller and Lee) and save a boatload of cash to apply to the mound. Correa alone is probably worth 3-5 solid RPs to augment Duran and Jax. Relief pitching is the key. A shut down pen is the most important need. Next year with Maeda back, a healthy Ober and Winder, plus Ryan and Gray we should hav a solid SP core. So, if we moved Correa, well so be it. But I would understand if he, Kepler, Urshela, Sano, Sanchez (unlikely now), and, even, Polanco, we’re traded.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Nice bounce back win! Now let’s take the series tomorrow.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Your points are well taken. Going into this season, there was much hope that we had some developing depth among our prospect starters. Outside of Ryan, has that really occurred? Catching is an issue. It’s too bad Jeffers got hurt as his bat was just coming around. I think he’s a solid major league catcher. Assuming we can’t get Correa to stay, the Lewis injury really hurt. He’s a special young man. Assuming he returns and can perform as he was, I’m quite content with an infield of Arraez/Kiriloff, Polanco, Lewis and Miranda with those five essentially playing everyday in some capacity (including DH, but we have to slot in Buxton as DH as well). Btw, outside of Polanco - who is on a very attractive contract - all of those players are cheap and tied up for a while. Buxton, Larnach, possibly Kepler, and/or some combo of Martin, Wallner and Celestino in the outfield are solid enough. Gordon and Steer are our utility players. Buxton (notwithstanding Kepler if we keep him but his salary may be better utilised applied to pitching), is the only one of that group who costs money. So plenty of money to throw at building/rounding out our starting staff, rebuilding our relief core around Duran and Jax, and adding catching depth. Just my opinion, but I like our core of controllable youngsters and financial flexibility over the next several years. That is why I’m a seller of anyone not likely to contribute and/or is expensive if we can add to this core and build our staff. This would sadly include Correa if we can’t lock him up (which I’d love to see happen). One other thing though - Rocco’s performance needs to be seriously evaluated. I’m not convinced he’s the right manager (there, I touched the third rail).
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Did we all see what the M’s gave up for Castillo? We’d have to completely gut our prospect list to get to that level - and we need 3-4 Castillo types to realistically have any chance to contend. The data points are there. It’s ok to take a step back and reevaluate where this team truly stands with a clear mind and open eyes. Sure - we are clinging to a rapidly evaporating division lead. But we are obviously more than one or two players away. Our window should be more open next year and then the following year than it is now. Any moves we make should be to enhance that realisation, not jeopardise it. Watching last night’s game, I was dumbfounded and saddened to see Rocco leave our top young starter in to give up 10 runs. After Machado it was perfectly clear to everyone it was not Ryan’s night. Rocco leaves him in to get battered for four more runs to get one more out. That was inexcusable. I hope Ryan can either forget or learn from that. Psyche’s in young pitchers can be tricky. Looking for a strong rebound game today!
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Your point is a good one, but it’s a tough call. After all, we still lead the division. But there are enough data points now to suggest that your supposition is accurate. Re trades, I’d focus on moving anyone who is not going to be part of a ‘23-‘25 window. Move as much salary as possible. Keep anyone, big leaguer or prospect, who is viewed as more than likely to be part of that window. Anyone else - move if possible. The downside is we might not get much of anything in return (I mean, can we get anything for Sanchez, Urshela, Kepler, Sano or even Correa other than some salary relief?). Therefore, maybe we just end up playing it out with whom we have. I actually think that is where we could end up - we won’t do much at the deadline because we don’t want to part with any “muscle” (just too many holes to fill to make this a good risk/reward choice) and the “fat” won’t get us anything in return.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. And let’s not forget the two walks. That’s inexcusable. But we shouldn’t let Duran off the hook either. He had a walk fest going in the 8th and came within a cross up of walking in the go ahead run (given how things are going, I’m surprised that pitch didn’t go the backstop lol). Really just more of the same mental mistakes that we’ve come to expect - yesterday it was relievers walking multiple batters late in the game and a base running error that likely cost us at least one crucial run. It’s like little league out there sometimes. But sadly getting to be so typical.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    I seem to recall in Ball Four Bouton describing the Seattle Pilots’ pitchers meeting before a game around that era to go through how they were going to approach each Twins hitter in the lineup. At the end of the meeting they had eight “ok, I guess we just pitch around hims”. Also, Oliva and Kaat are still studs well into their 80’s, Geez, those guys are really doing well. I could only wish to be that sharp and active when (if) I get there.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Arraez is really good - what an incredible at bat to drive in two and open up the lead. Wow.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    So Twins baseball players are making personal medical decisions that impact when they may or may not be available to play for the team. Where have I heard that before? LOL. All sarcasm aside, get better Byron - just love to watch you play ball.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Lots of different opinions already. Love it. The decision likely rests on a number of factors. Consider the following: 1, What is the probability that Correa is back next year by signing a long term deal? If so, what is the impact on our FA budget? 2. What moves do the Twins make to shore up our pitching, particularly in the bullpen, prior to the deadline? How do those moves, or lack there of, impact our chances to make/advance in the playoffs. 3, What type of return would we get for Correa? Are we talking multiple solid prospects or is it just salary relief? So it’s a bit like trying to solve a multi linear equation. If the answers to #1, 2, and 3, are slim to none and slim just left town, none, and decent to strong - you trade him. If the answers are high, a few solid additions, and not much, you keep him. It’s the other scenarios where it gets trickier.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Wow, how things have changed in a mere 4 months. Although we still have some developing talent just getting an extended look in the bigs for the first time this year, the sad fact remains: organizationally, we are weak on the mound. Very weak - both currently and prospectively. We tried to retool last year and the possibility of a modicum of success remains. It’s not enough though; so, unfortunately, we have to keep at it. This franchise is unlikely to win a playoff series, let alone the World Series, without significant additions on the bump. So how do we accomplish that. Given our prospect situation, two obvious options exist? Trades and free agency. The more cash we have, the more viable the second option becomes. So the solution is clear: trade anyone who is expensive and is not going to be part of the core between ‘23-‘26 for whatever pitching we can get. The list includes Kepler, Sano, Correa (assuming he doesn’t reup by the deadline), Sanchez and Urshela. Even if we received only a couple of decent prospects in return, the cost savings alone would free up approximately $40MM or more to be used on the mound.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Super post and super draft analysis. Thank you.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    If he will commit to reup - no. I know, that’s a blinding statement of the obvious. If he will not commit to reup, then the question gets more difficult. The analysis would seem to require weighing what players can be received in return vs. the combination of the probability the Twins can make it into the playoffs and past the first round plus the probability that he will reup (or sign a new deal) with us after the season. This comparison also needs to take into effect any other moves the Twins make at the deadline (which could impact the prospects for playoff success). All things being equal, if a) he does not reup (seems likely), b) the Twins do not upgrade their pitching staff before the deadline (unclear) and c) the Twins can receive a solid return (not sure about this, but he is Carlos Correa - some contender must want him), I’d move him for sure. Sad, but in this scenario, playoff success is unlikely and the more important priority would be to build toward a better window in ‘23 and beyond.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Agree - Lee is a very solid pick and we were lucky he fell to us. I know a MLB team never really drafts for need, but the system does seem to be short catching and long 3B/2B/LF. Parada seemed like he could’ve been a fast mover (but Lee should be too). The fact that Parada fell to the Mets at 11 might indicate the Mets were targeting him ($?). Overall, Lee is a great pick who should be a solid major leaguer - hopefully for the Twins.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Sellers….
  20. Nashvilletwin
    I know I’m in the minority on this, but it’s hard to see why we would mortgage our future by trading any legitimate prospect or big leaguer likely to be part of the plan in 2023 and beyond for any rest-of-year rental. It’s painful to say, but based on our play over the past month, we’re just not that good and have too many holes to fill, mostly on the mound, to truly be considered real contenders. Let’s see how the rest of this series plays out, but the data points are starting to accumulate. Sure, we may hold on to take the weak central, but we should still be focusing on a bigger open window over the next several years. So if we move anyone, move the players who are not likely to be here next year - the list might include Kepler, Sano, Urshela, and Sanchez. Maybe even Correa if you can’t get a commitment out of him - even though by keeping him you still retain some chance of catching lightning in a bottle this year.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Arraez is hitting 0.400 with RISP. There is someone more “trusted” than that?
  22. Nashvilletwin
    I’d like to think that as well, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The ChiSox played like little leaguers tonight with the triple play base running gaffe, bailing out a wild Pagan in the ninth, and the walks in the 10th. The outcome, as enjoyable as it was, was not assured really at any point. Yes, we probably have a better squad than either of our primary AL Central rivals (although Cleveland’s pen vs. ours is a great equalizer). But there is a lot of ball left to play. Looking forward to tomorrow’s game.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    You are correct. 8 blown leads 7th inning and beyond. Duffy -2, Pagan - 6.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    The bullpen implosion was a disaster - unfortunately, not that unexpected of this club. I mean, we are kinda getting used to it, right? Pagan is, like, 9/15 in save situations. The thread will focus on this I’m sure. However, the little things from the position players once again bit this team in the rear. Arraez’s throwing error in the first was unnecessary and led to a run. Celestino not picking up the 3rd base coach and stopping at second likely cost the Twins another run. That’s a net two runs, proving costly. No need to even mention the passed ball. We need to clean up these little things because they are having a big impact. Our relief corp isn’t strong enough to overcome these mental mistakes in the field, at the plate, and on the base paths.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    9/16 in save attempts. How about tomorrow?
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