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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Ted, good post. Thanks. You listed 9 position players comparing OPS data. Here’s my question: how many of those players are on the Twins next year (or even post the trade deadline)? Quick take: three - Arraez, Polanco and Jeffers. You didn’t list Buxton and Kiriloff, but they will be too. Possibly Larnach - but not mission critical. The rest will be traded or DFA’d if they don’t get their act together and, for several of them, even if they do. That leaves 4 starting positions vacant (three of we can somehow hold on to Correa). Miranda, Lewis and Martin will be here in August. Assuming we keep Correa, would anyone be sad if our starting position player lineup in August were: 1B Kiriloff, 2B Polanco, SS Correa, 3B Miranda, LF Martin, CF Buxton, RF Lewis, C Jeffers, DH Arraez? Even if Correa is traded for a haul, we could put Lewis at SS, Arraez at 1B and Kiriloff in RF. Either one of those lineups is more exciting/interesting to watch and positions us better for next season and beyond. I’m not worried - I like the future.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    I’m wondering which/any Twins position player has developed under Rocco? Sano, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, Jeffers have regressed. Very shortly, this team is going to need a manager who can turn our young talent into solid major leaguers. Sorry, nothing against him, but Rocco has not demonstrated that he is that guy. TK and Gardy were able to do that. Twins will likely need to make a change in HC sooner rather than latter as the next three star prospects make their way up to the big club. Too much talent to squander.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Yep, couldn’t agree more. Outside of this team turning things around, the goal is to hope multiple players start to show more so that we can maximise trade deadline value. You correctly identified the right names. Some of those will be DFA’d if they can’t be moved. However, as this team transitions to a much younger squad, you’ve missed one important piece that also needs to change. That’s Rocco and his staff. This team is going to need a head coach and position coaches who can develop young players to reach their potential. Rocco has not shown that with any young player yet. Fellow TDers please name one. The sooner we bring in that type of coaching leadership, the more upside this franchise can have. Forget Kepler and Sano - their regression may be to difficult to turn around. Think Kiriloff, Larnach and Jeffers on the current team - those three still have potential and are begging for development. We need them to be solid major leaguers.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Seriously, things are headed south pretty fast. Turned on the game tonight and took one look at the starting lineup and couldn’t believe what I saw. Garlick is batting cleanup? Our best batting average was Urshela? Almost everybody hitting under 0.200? It was crazy looking at how pathetic that lineup was tonight. Let’s hope they turn this around. But if not, at some point someone has to be held accountable. That someone includes players (and there are a lot of them - hell, there are multiple DFA candidates playing on this team), coaches, and the FO. Sorry, I am not blaming the Pohlads - they’ve done their bit. The good news is that we should see the future in Miranda, Lewis and Martin plus others more likely sooner than later.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Great post Nick. Really informative. Thanks.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Another terrible loss with coaching decisions near the top of the reasons why. Hate to say it, but these decisions matter. Regardless of how poor we have hit, we’re probably down two games on coaching alone. Here’s hoping we turn things around, but the fears of a 2021 redux are starting to kick in again.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    I also am no doctor, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn last night. So my unfortunate, yet now sadly qualified, diagnosis is a partial ACL tear. I am praying I’m wrong. Buck is an unbelievably exciting, talented baseball player. I’ve found myself through the start of this young season doing all I can to make sure I see every one of his at bats.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Very disappointing start to the season. Yes, it’s still early, but it’s not as if we can forget that last year was over before it really began. So we are human to think that way and I’m sure some in the Twins organization might have similar thoughts cropping up. Two quick things: 1. Rocco’s seat should be getting a bit warm. He has not demonstrated that knack for making the right calls in the tight games. Also, I worry about the intensity and focus of his ball clubs. Maybe it’s just me, but Gordon just seemed slightly lackadaisical on his throw to second in the 9th yesterday. Sure, that’s on Gordon, but Rocco as well. Moreover, I can’t think of one young player that’s developed to potential while up in the bigs. That is a really big deal with a club that could get very young in the near future. 2. It’s not all bad news. Think about the cash and new player haul we will have next year when we DFA Sano and Sanchez, and trade Kepler, Urshela, and Correa. Add in Miranda, Lewis, Martin, Maeda, and a few of our pitching prospects and we should be in good shape for a nice several year run. So chin up - there’s really no downside.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    A few thoughts: 1. Tomorrow is opening day and I’m stoked. 2. Anything we do this year is gravy; I’m not swayed by the head fake that this is our year quite yet. So, IMHO, anyone that isn’t going to be around for ‘23-‘25 can be moved - including Rogers and Rooker - for some players who might be. 3. By the trade deadline, that list could be quite long: Correa, Kepler, Sanchez, Urshela, etc. Maybe not though - here’s hoping. 4. Here’s hoping the we let the kids play - Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Celestino, and, later in the year, Lewis. Eventually, our vaunted list of young starters are going to have to get some innings too.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    What about all this pitching depth we are supposed to have? What about all the prospects knocking on the door? We have less outfield depth than we all might think - BB gets hurt and Max is about average (below average hitter). At the moment we are hurting in LF given Kiriloff should be a 1B. Hopefully they send us a catcher. Maybe we can throw in Sanchez.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Did we DFA the wrong catcher? It’s not as silly a question as it sounds. Points for Godoy: he is better defensively and possibly offensively (albeit light hitting). Also, we were prepared to roll with Rortvedt as C2 post the Garver trade and Godoy, as described by many in this site, is about like Rortvedt. Points for Sanchez: he was good three years ago, our FO traded for him, he might rebound, and he costs about $8MM.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    So, does this mean Sanchez doesn’t DH and is essentially a back up C? Or on the vast majority of days that Jeffers is behind the dish, do we roll with Sanchez at DH and hope we don’t need to put a pitcher at the plate. Sounds like Kiriloff is going to play a lot of 1B, Sano at DH, and Sanchez at C2. Thats lots of $ to pay a C2. Geez, I really hate what we’ve done to our catching skill base and depth.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Excellent article. Here’s hoping the Jeffers’ train starts to gain serious speed. A little side note of import. C depth is critical - good catchers are not only hard to find, but are hard to keep healthy. The Yankees were all set to platoon Rortvedt as C2 this year, but he developed an oblique strain. Thus, they were forced to traded two pitching prospects for a Godoy type from the Rangers. Point being - C injuries happens - often. Although we dearly hope the opposite, we should not expect Jeffers to last the year unscathed. Or said differently, there is a real - definitely non-zero - possibility we will be relying heavily on our back up Cs this year. Overall, this off-season C went from an area of strength to one of weakness and risk (i.e. the bet Jeffers BOTH produces and stays healthy - there shouldn’t even be a line on the Sanchez “change of scenery” scenario). We should not expect above average play from Sanchez either offensively or defensively and Godoy, who really is, or should be, C2, is kinda an older, slightly poorer version of Rortvedt - meh. I love we added Correa. But it appears he fell in our laps and gave the FO a huge kick save. We should’ve been able to move JD without ruining our C depth.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Haha. That didn’t age well. Ok, I’ll try to jumpstart another Twin using your method. What about Sanchez? The Angels DFA’d Upton today even owing him $28MM this year. He hit a little above 0.200 with 17 dingers in 89 games last year. Should we expect more from Sanchez this year? Sanchez is owed $11MM this year, but will probably block ABs for some emerging prospects. For example, Sano could be the everyday DH, Kiriloff at 1B, and either Larnach, Celestino, or even Martin in LF getting valuable experience. Lucky for Sanchez he’s catcher, albeit a not very good one, Ok, I know this won’t happen at least until we are out of contention and move someone (Correa?) for a bit of catching depth (among other players). But. hey, maybe now that I wrote this Sanchez will break out tomorrow like Gordon did for you!
  15. Nashvilletwin
    One person’s POV: Elite: SS and CF Top 25%: 2B About Average: RF, LF (Kiriloff), 1B (Kiriloff), 3B (Arraez or good Urshela), DH (good Sano), Relief Pitching Bottom 25%: C (used to be between Average and Top 25%), 3B (bad Urshela), 1B (Sano), DH (Sanchez or bad Sano), LF (Rooker), Starting Staff So, is this a team that can contend? By the trade deadline if we are not contending (I hope we are contending!), our starting lineup will be: Kiriloff (1B), Polanco (2B), Urshela (SS), Miranda (3B), Larnach (LF), Buxton (CF), Martin (RF), Sano (DH), Jeffers (C), Arraez (super utility), and Gordon and Celestino (other bench). Sanchez gets DFA’d, Correa gets traded to a contender for strong SP and/or SS prospects (depending on Lewis) plus quality C depth, and Keppler gets moved for other prospects. Urshela is traded in the off season for salary relief and relief pitching.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    DFA
  17. Nashvilletwin
    That would be like the poor woman who backed into the airplane propeller: “Dis-assed-her”
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Agree with the conclusion. Unless Max can regain his form at the plate, he will be gone when some combo (note: it will take two because the first gets LF) of Martin, Larnach, Celestino, Lewis, Wallner, et al emerge as true starting corner outfielders. Kiriloff, btw, should be our long term 1st baseman. Actually, it’s really too bad. Max is very likeable and his D is great. I hope he has a great season.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Ted, great post. You know way more than I, but B or B+ seems about right. I liked the Gray trade quite a lot. That is a solid A- given the desire to compete this year and the risk associated with the high school arm. Correa was a fantastic addition obviously, but there is a high probability that it is a one year deal or less (it’s very possible still that we move him by the deadline if we are not contending). Thus, if Lewis is not ready to be a SS in the bigs next year, then we are back to square one. On the other hand, just maybe things work out and Correa is here for awhile. There is a lot of upside - we contend this year, move him for good longer term players, or he stays - vs. the downside of he leaves after one year (which we should only let happen if we are contending and can’t sign him to a new contract) or doesn’t perform. I think the upside cases are way more likely. Grade A. However, the Correa signing felt a lot like a huge kick save after the Yankees trade. Just hated that trade. We decimated our catching depth (remember, Garver’s move ended up being part of this deal) and brought in two expensive reclamation projects. I’m higher on Urshela, but he still is blocking our most ready prospect. Sanchez was being touted in the NY press as being a likely DFA candidate. It took way more than expected to get rid of JD’s deal, but we still took on $17MM or so in the two Yankees. If Jeffers doesn’t perform, we are extraordinarily thin at C. I hope Urshela and Sanchez do well, but it’s highly likely Sanchez is one and done as a Twin and Urshela is an expensive utility player in ‘23, if not sooner. Grade C- The other three signings are just “meh” and if one produces, then the three all together will be a success. Very possible but that should be the expectation. Grade B. Overall, if we had just spent a bit more to keep JD (until we could move him) and our two catchers, signed Correa and done the pitching moves as well, we’d be better off. That team would be more of a contender this year and better positioned going forward. I so hope I’m wrong, but I’m just not feeling the value of Urshela and Sanchez.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    1. If Jeffers starts at C and Sanchez is in the lineup as the DH, an injury to Jeffers means Sanchez would move to C and we would lose the DH (i.e. the pitcher would hit in that spot). 2. Godoy is a better defensive catcher and may be needed at various times for that skill vs. Sanchez. 3. Rocco and the FO won’t DFA or trade Sanchez no matter how badly he plays. So, unless Sanchez never DHs (which should be the case anyway but won’t be), we will need to carry three.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Lots of great comments - as usual. A few questions for us TDers: 1. Is Urshela that much better of a fielder than Arraez at 3B that he should keep Arraez’s superior bat out of the lineup more often than not? I’d argue - no. If Arraez is the DH, then of course Urshela is at 3B. But otherwise, in my book, we are stronger as a team with Arraez in the starting lineup at 3B. 2. If Godoy is a much superior defensive C than Sanchez and can hit 0.250 consistently (albeit lightly) vs. Sanchez hitting 0.210 with an OBA under 0.250, why would we ever start Sanchez at DH or C. Godoy should be our backup C unless Sanchez can prove he is that much better a hitter to make up for their disparity in catching skills. 3. Is Kepler that much of a better fielder than Larnach that you would start him in RF against lefties? It could be that Larnach could hit lefties (or righties for that matter) better than Kepler to more than make up for the defensive differences. 4. Is Rocco interested in winning right out of the gate? Is he willing to put his best team on the field everyday to maximize the opportunity to get a victory? How long a leash will he give our more expensive “starters” Sanchez, Kepler and Urshela before giving some of the others (Godoy, Larnach, and Arraez) more innings? Last season we were out of the race by early May. If we don’t start strong, how long until Rocco will pivot? Just a few lineup questions to chew on…
  22. Nashvilletwin
    One of my fellow TDers explained how the catching and dh rules work. If your backup C is DHing, he can replace the injured starting but the team loses the DH spot. That is one reason why we must carry three Cs. The second reason is that we need someone who can actually catch when we need some solid defensive catching. So Sanchez will hit 0.210, have a few dingers but strike out at a ridiculous clip, make $11MM and take away a roster spot and valuable ABs from one of our emerging youngsters. Yeah, that’s a good situation - lol. Sanchez has no position being on this team. We now have arguably the weakest lineup at C in the league after having one of the best. Yes, I’m happy that it all led to Correa’s one year rental. But it did not have to be that way. Sanchez is at worst one and done as a Twin and at best we can move him for anything as soon as possible. Btw, he’s not alone. Including Sanchez, we have four overpaid, veterans trying to prove their value with bounceback years but who are keeping Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Rooker, Celestino and others from getting the experience they need to develop. Will any of these veterans hit over 0.230 this year? I hope they all do and have great years - but I’ve got the under.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Larnach is in the same boat as Miranda and Martin - all are solid prospects who have pretty much done (or soon will in Martin’s case) what they have needed to earn a spot in the majors. Right now we have four players on the team who are blocking their innings and/ABs: Kepler, Sano, Urshela, and Sanchez. The Twins have over $33MM committed to those four this year. I hope we contend early and these players produce. But if they don’t, Larnach et al should get their chances and the cash should be reinvested in pitching.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    You are correct that Kepler’s job security is threatened. Patience is required, but it’s quite possible that if Max doesn’t start hitting, Larnach is a starting OFer for us by early summer and Martin is as well by the trade deadline.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    I’ll be the contrarian and suggest that playing time/ABs should be based on actual production. So after about the first couple of weeks, if that suggestion holds, we should be looking at something like this: 1. Buxton CF 2. Arraez DH 3. Polanco 2B 4. Correa SS 5. Kiriloff 1B 6. Miranda 3B 7. Larnach RF 8. Jeffers C 9. Martin LF Of these four veterans - Kepler, Sano, Urshela, and Sanchez - I have the most hope for Sano and Urshela; however, all four better get on their horses or they should be riding the pine and/or getting moved before the deadline. We do not have the luxury of taking a full 4-6 weeks off like last year waiting for our “proven” players - who haven’t proved much in the last year or two - to demonstrate whether they can find their groove again.
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