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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Missed the game - 3rd of the year. Was Arraez hurt last night? If not, I’m wondering in what universe is Arraez batting against a left handed pitcher still not better than sending up any of our right handed batters other than maybe Miranda? That’s right, I’m including our two “superstars” in that comparison. Are we playing to win or are we still sticking with the “analytics”? Sure, we were thoroughly outclassed so it might not have mattered; however, doesn’t his bat in the lineup regardless if a lefty is starting still give us a better chance to win? Please disregard this comment if Luis was injured.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Aaron Sanchez - don’t sleep on him. I’m thinking he is going to play a role for this team down the stretch possibly as both a spot starter and in the pen. Today I’d love it if he were the first off the bench once Archer is pulled after 3 or 4,
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Rec this - I agree 100%.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Actually, it might be better for us if he opts out. Here’s the thinking. We save $35MM. With Sanchez and Sano gone, we would have a total of about $50MM extra to spend. What does that get us? Let’s say a solid starter plus three relievers and a decent back up catcher. The roster in ‘23 might look something like this: OF: Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, and Celestino (Wallner and Martin on deck) IF: Kiriloff, Arraez, Polanco, Palacios, Miranda, Urshela, and Lewis (2nd half). Catcher: Jeffers, FA SP: Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, and FA (SWR, Winder and Ober on deck for injuries) RP: López, Duran, Jax, Megill (yes, I still have hopes for him), Fulmer (resigned as a FA), two more FAs, plus one player within the organization. That’s a pretty darn good lineup led by a really good starting staff, a solid relief corps, and good overall depth. So, if Correa does opt out, things will still be ok and possibly better.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Based on his play this year, the odds of him securing a truly attractive long term deal - 7-10 years at $30MM + - have diminished. So what are his logical choices? A. Stay with the Twins for $35MM and look to improve upon his performance so to get a better long term deal in ‘24. B. Opt out and get something around 5 years at $30MM. C. Twins add an extra year at $35MM and give him another opt out option after ‘24. I think the Twins maybe do C. but I don’t see them offering B. Having said that, $35MM buys A LOT of relief pitching and we still have Palacios and Lewis manning SS with Miller and Lee on deck. It very well could could just come down to Correas’s choice and the Twins accept it either way.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Keep an eye on Sanchez. He may become a very interesting option for us in the pen as the year finishes up.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    I feel bad for Bundy - he gets the Pagan, Megill, Sands, Thielbar relief squad rotation tonight. Like Gray had two nights ago (except, he had Duffy, of course). Basically, Bundy has very little chance of a getting the win tonight unless he miraculously pitches into at least the 8th and the Twins are up at least 5 runs when he departs. Poor guy - must be rough to be a starting pitcher knowing that there is very little chance to get a win because your manager will yank you no matter what before the third time through the order and your relief corps is very likely not up to the task.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    At least we were playing a team that played more little league baseball than us for a change. Your point about our fundamentals, or lack thereof, is spot on. The primary responsibility for that lies with the coaching staff. It is unlikely we will ever seriously contend unless our fundamentals are better than the teams that have bigger budgets.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    The FO did a great job solving for the holes that were apparent for quite some time: namely relief pitching and a quality starter, They did their research on both sides of the trade market prioritising whom they wanted and whom they were willing to deal. Yesterday’s win was a textbook example of how a relief corp should operate. It just hasn’t felt we’ve had that all year. Hopefully, we now have some defined roles in the pen with Jax in early high leverage relief, Fulmer and Duran in the set up roles depending on matchups, and López closing. Resign Fulmer and a solid relief corp is on hand for at least a couple of years. That’s been our biggest hole and it was solved. The Mahle deal is saved by the extra year of control. Outside of injury risk, he is a solid upgrade to Archer and Bundy giving us three solid starters joining Ryan and Gray. Assuming we get to playoff baseball, that’s a good starting point to be able to compete (especially when coupled with the new core in the pen). The cost definitely hurt a bit, but none of the players given up were likely to contribute in ‘23 and maybe even ‘24 - both years being projected open window years. Importantly, the core of our young, controllable, and relatively cheap position players were not touched. Drafting Lee and Miller, along with Lewis, takes the sting off of losing Steer (let’s be grateful he played so well this year driving up his value). CES is a masher - and will have to continue to be as a likely DH in the bigs. Again, assuming health, would we rather have Miranda, Kiriloff or Larnach? Yes. Re filling position player holes, the FO had enough time to fill Jeffers’ spot, especially given the backup nature of the need. The injuries to Kepler and Kiriloff were a bit late in the game, and hopefully, transitory enough that quickly developing a plan and spending more capital to fill the bigger (i.e more expensive) need those injuries created just probably didn’t make sense. Overall, the FO gets an A for their reactive actions in filling the biggest holes and positioning the team for a bit of a run this year as well as building/not damaging the future for the next couple of years. However, they don’t get as much commendation for their actions in the off season creating the pitching staff leading to the needs. One final thought - given his solid, but not spectacular, performance this season to-date, Correa might just stick around next year for $35MM and a team better poised to compete. Just wondering….
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Rec. this! Exactly how I felt today. Wow.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Well, if everyone is healthy and hitting at or near their best, I don’t have Urshela or Sanchez in my starting eight position players or at DH. I guess you could argue about Urshela vs. Larnach for the final position player start.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Essentially missing five of our nine starting position players (including DH): Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach and Jeffers. That list includes our entire starting outfield folks. Are Arraez, Correa, Polanco and Miranda - plus our second stringers at 3B (Urshela) and catcher (Sanchez) - enough to carry this team to a playoff win even with the pitching additions today? It’s a tall order. Especially if we can’t field weak ground balls to the first baseman or sustain developing rallies. After all, even the best pitching could use a clean defensive game and a little better consistent production at the plate. Lets go get a win tomorrow,
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Nice win - the team showed lots of heart to keep at it to produce a W. The bottom of the 9th though was classic Twins lack of fundamentals baseball. 1st and 2nd with no outs is followed by a K on three failed bunt attempts, a long fly that would’ve won the game if the bunt had been successful, and Gordon getting picked off 3rd on ball four which would have loaded the bases for baseball’s best hitter. Hard to make that up. Oh well, let’s get ‘em again today!
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Nice bounce back win! Now let’s take the series tomorrow.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Your points are well taken. Going into this season, there was much hope that we had some developing depth among our prospect starters. Outside of Ryan, has that really occurred? Catching is an issue. It’s too bad Jeffers got hurt as his bat was just coming around. I think he’s a solid major league catcher. Assuming we can’t get Correa to stay, the Lewis injury really hurt. He’s a special young man. Assuming he returns and can perform as he was, I’m quite content with an infield of Arraez/Kiriloff, Polanco, Lewis and Miranda with those five essentially playing everyday in some capacity (including DH, but we have to slot in Buxton as DH as well). Btw, outside of Polanco - who is on a very attractive contract - all of those players are cheap and tied up for a while. Buxton, Larnach, possibly Kepler, and/or some combo of Martin, Wallner and Celestino in the outfield are solid enough. Gordon and Steer are our utility players. Buxton (notwithstanding Kepler if we keep him but his salary may be better utilised applied to pitching), is the only one of that group who costs money. So plenty of money to throw at building/rounding out our starting staff, rebuilding our relief core around Duran and Jax, and adding catching depth. Just my opinion, but I like our core of controllable youngsters and financial flexibility over the next several years. That is why I’m a seller of anyone not likely to contribute and/or is expensive if we can add to this core and build our staff. This would sadly include Correa if we can’t lock him up (which I’d love to see happen). One other thing though - Rocco’s performance needs to be seriously evaluated. I’m not convinced he’s the right manager (there, I touched the third rail).
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Did we all see what the M’s gave up for Castillo? We’d have to completely gut our prospect list to get to that level - and we need 3-4 Castillo types to realistically have any chance to contend. The data points are there. It’s ok to take a step back and reevaluate where this team truly stands with a clear mind and open eyes. Sure - we are clinging to a rapidly evaporating division lead. But we are obviously more than one or two players away. Our window should be more open next year and then the following year than it is now. Any moves we make should be to enhance that realisation, not jeopardise it. Watching last night’s game, I was dumbfounded and saddened to see Rocco leave our top young starter in to give up 10 runs. After Machado it was perfectly clear to everyone it was not Ryan’s night. Rocco leaves him in to get battered for four more runs to get one more out. That was inexcusable. I hope Ryan can either forget or learn from that. Psyche’s in young pitchers can be tricky. Looking for a strong rebound game today!
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. And let’s not forget the two walks. That’s inexcusable. But we shouldn’t let Duran off the hook either. He had a walk fest going in the 8th and came within a cross up of walking in the go ahead run (given how things are going, I’m surprised that pitch didn’t go the backstop lol). Really just more of the same mental mistakes that we’ve come to expect - yesterday it was relievers walking multiple batters late in the game and a base running error that likely cost us at least one crucial run. It’s like little league out there sometimes. But sadly getting to be so typical.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    I seem to recall in Ball Four Bouton describing the Seattle Pilots’ pitchers meeting before a game around that era to go through how they were going to approach each Twins hitter in the lineup. At the end of the meeting they had eight “ok, I guess we just pitch around hims”. Also, Oliva and Kaat are still studs well into their 80’s, Geez, those guys are really doing well. I could only wish to be that sharp and active when (if) I get there.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Arraez is really good - what an incredible at bat to drive in two and open up the lead. Wow.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    Lots of different opinions already. Love it. The decision likely rests on a number of factors. Consider the following: 1, What is the probability that Correa is back next year by signing a long term deal? If so, what is the impact on our FA budget? 2. What moves do the Twins make to shore up our pitching, particularly in the bullpen, prior to the deadline? How do those moves, or lack there of, impact our chances to make/advance in the playoffs. 3, What type of return would we get for Correa? Are we talking multiple solid prospects or is it just salary relief? So it’s a bit like trying to solve a multi linear equation. If the answers to #1, 2, and 3, are slim to none and slim just left town, none, and decent to strong - you trade him. If the answers are high, a few solid additions, and not much, you keep him. It’s the other scenarios where it gets trickier.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Wow, how things have changed in a mere 4 months. Although we still have some developing talent just getting an extended look in the bigs for the first time this year, the sad fact remains: organizationally, we are weak on the mound. Very weak - both currently and prospectively. We tried to retool last year and the possibility of a modicum of success remains. It’s not enough though; so, unfortunately, we have to keep at it. This franchise is unlikely to win a playoff series, let alone the World Series, without significant additions on the bump. So how do we accomplish that. Given our prospect situation, two obvious options exist? Trades and free agency. The more cash we have, the more viable the second option becomes. So the solution is clear: trade anyone who is expensive and is not going to be part of the core between ‘23-‘26 for whatever pitching we can get. The list includes Kepler, Sano, Correa (assuming he doesn’t reup by the deadline), Sanchez and Urshela. Even if we received only a couple of decent prospects in return, the cost savings alone would free up approximately $40MM or more to be used on the mound.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Super post and super draft analysis. Thank you.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    If he will commit to reup - no. I know, that’s a blinding statement of the obvious. If he will not commit to reup, then the question gets more difficult. The analysis would seem to require weighing what players can be received in return vs. the combination of the probability the Twins can make it into the playoffs and past the first round plus the probability that he will reup (or sign a new deal) with us after the season. This comparison also needs to take into effect any other moves the Twins make at the deadline (which could impact the prospects for playoff success). All things being equal, if a) he does not reup (seems likely), b) the Twins do not upgrade their pitching staff before the deadline (unclear) and c) the Twins can receive a solid return (not sure about this, but he is Carlos Correa - some contender must want him), I’d move him for sure. Sad, but in this scenario, playoff success is unlikely and the more important priority would be to build toward a better window in ‘23 and beyond.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Agree - Lee is a very solid pick and we were lucky he fell to us. I know a MLB team never really drafts for need, but the system does seem to be short catching and long 3B/2B/LF. Parada seemed like he could’ve been a fast mover (but Lee should be too). The fact that Parada fell to the Mets at 11 might indicate the Mets were targeting him ($?). Overall, Lee is a great pick who should be a solid major leaguer - hopefully for the Twins.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    I know I’m in the minority on this, but it’s hard to see why we would mortgage our future by trading any legitimate prospect or big leaguer likely to be part of the plan in 2023 and beyond for any rest-of-year rental. It’s painful to say, but based on our play over the past month, we’re just not that good and have too many holes to fill, mostly on the mound, to truly be considered real contenders. Let’s see how the rest of this series plays out, but the data points are starting to accumulate. Sure, we may hold on to take the weak central, but we should still be focusing on a bigger open window over the next several years. So if we move anyone, move the players who are not likely to be here next year - the list might include Kepler, Sano, Urshela, and Sanchez. Maybe even Correa if you can’t get a commitment out of him - even though by keeping him you still retain some chance of catching lightning in a bottle this year.
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