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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    The wins keep a-rollin'! Gotta love it. Hottest team in baseball, and recovered nicely from the early season blues. Streaks like this aren't easy and I love seeing it. Be awesome if they can take out the BoSox again on sunday and sweep a 4th series in a row. Lopez has looked good this season and then had the one bum inning that messes up his line and makes it tougher for the Twins to pull out the win. Today he escaped without significant damage and got through his 6 pretty clean. Hopefully he gets on a bit of a roll. We've seen him dominate before, and 8 K's in 6 is pretty fine. Hope it's nothing serious with Stewart and this is more precautionary than anything else, but the bullpen depth sure makes it less worrisome. Just win, baby.
  2. jmlease1
    rotten news about Lewis. had real hopes for him, and the move to the 60-day is bad bad news. so hard to keep pitchers healthy. Maybe they really are taking the right approach with Raya?
  3. jmlease1
    I'm really happy to see him hitting well and looking solid at 3B. I do have some concerns that his approach isn't going to be sustainable as teams get more tape on him; better pitchers in MLB do tend to exploit guys who swing at everything. I don't expect him to take a ton of walks, but ticking up that box a little more could make a real difference. We'll see how he responds when he gets into a bad stretch, if he can adjust to the adjustments pitchers are making against him. But his struggles last season were clearly related to his injury status and he looks much much better this year. I can't really blame the Twins for being concerned about putting 1B in the hands of Miranda and Kirilloff out the gate; both guys hadn't been healthy and Miranda in particular had real questions whether he was fully healthy coming into the year. And beyond those guys the next man up in the minors would have been...Severino? Who had limited PT at 1B and no MLB experience (and he's really struggled so far in AAA this year). Here's hoping Miranda keeps making a decision on who to replace when Lewis comes back very very difficult.
  4. jmlease1
    Really good win. Jax and Duran look pretty great out there, and that's bad for other teams. I'm amazed how how easily Duran throws 101. There doesn't seem to be any extra effort or strain when he throws that fastball and then the gun shows 101 and you just shake your head. Excellent start from Paddack, and hope it's a sign of things to come. Maybe Keith Law will acknowledge Paddack as being a starter now. (unlikely) Good job breaking open the game but the offense, showed a lot of patience there.
  5. jmlease1
    I think so too. Prospect development is not linear. Miranda is looking good this season after an awful year in 2023, marred by injury. He seems intent on forcing his way onto the roster, which is great. Wallner will get it back together, but Larnach may keep him down in AAA anyways. These are the problems you want to have.
  6. jmlease1
    well, this is the difference between actually running a franchise and thinking about it like a fantasy club, right? Fantasy owners can be as cutthroat as they want with no long-term consequences for player acquisition. There's always a pool of players on the fringes to choose from to churn the back end of your roster to try to make marginal gains or catch someone for a few hot weeks and move on. Doesn't work that way IRL. Notably, Vazquez wasn't brought up here (mostly because with another year on his deal, no one realistically sees a way to move on from him), but he's so far managing to be even worse at the plate than last season and making it a 3-way race for "worst hitter" on the Twins between him, Farmer, and Margot. But at least the defense has been very good so far. It'll be interesting to see what happens if everyone is healthy when Lewis is ready to come back and if Miranda continues to hit. That's probably the first point where there could be a little crunch on the position player side. And if Margot keeps hitting LHP reasonably well, I doubt they move on from him. It would be interesting to see if Jackson would get through waivers. He's been...fine? he looks like a lot of middle relievers, I think someone else might take him if we tried that dance.
  7. jmlease1
    I'm happy to see success for Cespedes, who hadn't done a lot to this point and is having a breakout campaign so far. but to me it has to be Emma Rodriguez, who is putting up equally massive numbers, doing it at a high levels, and is 2 years younger. sure the hitting environment in the Texas League is better than the Midwest, but being older/younger for your level makes an impact too. Rodriguez is 3 years younger than average for his level, and Cespedes is nearly a year older. With the stats being what they are for both guys (Emma at 1.193 OPS vs Rubel at 1.104 OPS) even adjusting for hitting environments, I think I take the younger player at the higher level. be interesting to see if Cespedes can keep raking and earn an early promotion, though.
  8. jmlease1
    seriously. this isn't like when you need a pitcher, especially a starter. position players can go every day and you can literally hop the light rail to get from CHS to Target Field. Best news is the Emma was back in the OF. Glad it wasn't a serious injury. Looking forward to him resuming his destruction of AA.
  9. jmlease1
    They also prioritize maintaining depth, especially early in the season. they're not going to be cutting veterans in April or May because then those players are gone. Younger players with options can be sent down and brought back. After the debacle of the 2022 season, where the team was in first place in the division in September and utterly collapsed and a major component of that collapse was the lack of depth to overcome injuries (we started an OF of Cave, Celestino, and Contreras in a key series against Cleveland!), this front office has made it a clear priority to have experienced MLB players on the roster and depth in the system to manage through that. While it was incredibly frustrating to see them stick with Gallo through the summer after he fell apart after a great first month, they also did the same with Kepler who was brutal in May and not much better until the later part of June...and Kepler was terrific in the second half of the season. So...how aggressive should they be in cutting the vets? I like Martin, always have, but he didn't exactly wreck the league when he came up, and with Wallner flailing in AAA there's not a lot of depth behind him, especially not until someone like Emma gets moved up to AAA. With Brooks Lee dealing with an injury, that's cutting down the infield depth as well. So I don't see any real likelihood of a veteran position player getting cut before midseason, absent a trade (which is also unlikely to happen before at least midseason). It's really just the relievers who have to be concerned right now; Jackson is probably the most likely if anyone is in danger...and I don't think anyone really is. he's been fine, but not outstanding. He's been mostly in middle relief lower-leverage roles. He's the most fungible right now. Okert is a possibility, but he's pitched better than Thielbar so far and I don't see Thielbar going anywhere: he's been looking back to normal and has enough of a track record that he's going to earn some rope.
  10. jmlease1
    Rodriguez has also been playing CF; those "mediocre" fielding stats play up better in the corners, which is where he's almost certain to play if and when he reaches MLB. I'm not exactly worried about his ability to play a corner OF position effectively, and neither are the Twins. Dude is crushing it at AA at age 21 and sure looks on target to get time in AAA this season. Larnach probably won't be as good as Kepler has been because of Kepler's quality defense, but there's a real chance for him to be better on offense at least: he's 4 years younger, may have figured some things out at the plate, and Kepler's offensive production has rarely been strong. It's important to realize that in 9 full MLB seasons Kepler has only been an above average hitter in 3 of them. career OPS+ of 104. Larnach is sitting at 100 right now. He's a decent, if unspectacular, OF who has been mostly at DH as he recovers from turf toe. If the adjustments he's made at the plate are for real (and we won't know until we get at least another 100 ABs in him at the MLB level) then he's a quality corner OF. The problem with Kepler is how much do you want to invest when you don't know which Max you're going to get? Good Max that hits .250+ with solid power, takes his walks, and stays reasonably healthy? Or Bad Max that hits .220 with limited power, a lot of weak groundballs to the right side, and maybe isn't so healthy?
  11. jmlease1
    10 in a row, three sweeps, and two of them on the road? Love everything about that. Props to the Twins pitchers for not issuing a single free pass today. The sorry, no-account ChiSox certainly couldn't say the same, the Twins punished them for it. Ober chewed up enough innings so we didn't need anyone to try and go on back-to-back outings, which was exactly what you want to see on getaway day. Jax is doing a heck of a job, and with Duran and Stewart both back it should keep him from getting overused. Hopefully Buxton's injury isn't serious and this is just the kind of thing that needs a little maintenance since he's returning to full-on play this year. The good thing is, Martin has shown he can handle things in CF, so it's not like it was a few years ago where we were in desperation mode for OF. Miranda sure is taking advantage of his chances. Good for him! I'd like to see him grab a few more walks, but he's looking much more like the hitter we saw in 2022 and not like the guy who tried to play through injury in 2023. Red Sox series should be fun: hope people get to watch it!
  12. jmlease1
    If Ober has a good start today (and he's been looking good) they should be able to get through the game with Okert, Jax, and Stewart which would be great going into the off-day. They need to get some things figured out, but a 9-game winning streak is some fine deodorant. a 3rd straight sweep would be fantastic. they lost a lot of games to injury in April and made it through pretty well. If the bats stay cooking I think May will be a fine month.
  13. jmlease1
    A start like this is why many people are excited about Festa's prospects as a starter. the velocity is there, he can miss bats, and he can really put a side back on their heels. He's not a finished product by any means, but there's a lot to like there, and I feel like come June if we need another starter to come up and help us get through an injury or ineffectiveness...Festa will be ready for his first taste of MLB. Good to see Schobel get a couple of doubles. He's shown very little pop in his bat at AA so far, and while his ability to draw walks has been quite good, he's going to need to get more hard contact, not just contact in order to keep rising. Winokur is on a good roll right now, but I'd like to see him show better plate discipline and draw some walks. Still doing pretty well at 19 in A-ball though!
  14. jmlease1
    When you're on a winning streak, every win is a good one. Any way to keep it rolling is awesome. The bats were slow to get going, but ended up putting up 6. The bad luck with RISP from earlier in the season (when the Twins were almost unfathomly bad) is evening out. Work some walks, get some hits, pile up some runs. Not the best outing from SWR, but he wasn't terrible. Still threw strikes. Bullpen had some wobbles too, but you can't expect them to shut everyone down every night. I mean, Sands has been awesome this season, but presuming he was never going to give up another dinger was unrealistic. But great to have Duran back; he seems ready to roll. They've already won the series, on the road. Would love to see another sweep and push this streak to 10!
  15. jmlease1
    I think this is about right, but I do think there's more available for Martin as a hitter: I think he'll be able to increase the batting average and continue to grab walks (and he also showed in the minors that he's not afraid to stand in and get plunked, either). But he needs to keep working on some things, finding ways to punish mistakes, and improving his defensive skills in the OF. He's the obvious choice to send down right now with Margot on the roster, and Larnach and Miranda playing well. I do still think he can be a quality MLB player for us, especially with his speed and baserunning. He didn't sink when he came up and that's a good thing.
  16. jmlease1
    Wouldn't be my first choice, but Stewart is probably available and I suspect they knew Duran was coming off the IL. I'd also rather have Alcala up than Jackson or Bowman, but I understand why they're trying to keep the depth up. With Duran back we're fine, but any time you have a couple of close games in a row we're going to be stretching the bullpen a little and needing someone we'd rather have only throwing middle relief/lower-leverage spots get some higher impact work. Bullpen has been really good so far this season. Thielbar has been the "worst" and he seems to be settling back in after a rough start. Jackson's the next "worst" and he hasn't been exactly bad, more just kind of another guy. It's going to be great to have Duran back.
  17. jmlease1
    Martin has options, so cutting Margot means dumping a veteran under 30 with a solid track record by the end of April. not too many teams make that move. And while Margot has been unplayable against RHP, his .733 OPS against LHP has been fine. Note in fairly similar amounts of playing time Martin and Margot have been about as productive overall...and neither has been great. (-0.5 bWAR) I love Martin and I've kept the faith on him, but he still has things to work on. He wasn't getting on base like he needs to and his defense wasn't exactly elite either. It's probably just small sample size, but he wasn't hitting LHP worth a damn, and that's where the Twins likely need that 4th OF bat to be with Kepler back and Larnach playing well enough to demand time. Margot was doing what he had been predicted to do: hit LHP reasonably. Margot may be washed as a player, but this isn't a guy who is in his mid to late 30's, so a little more time is warranted, especially since some of the underlying stats suggest he's been a little unlucky so far. If he's still trash at the plate in June, maybe we look at moving on, but we don't have that much depth that's ready to play in the OF, and certainly not a lot that's proven, so if Kepler or Buxton go down for extended amounts of time things could get very thin the next time someone rolls an ankle. I prefer to take chances on younger players over veteran retreads, but Martin hasn't blown the doors off and maybe it's a little early to spend our depth and decide that a guy with 63 PAs is for sure done. With Larnach playing well, Kepler being back, Buxton being healthy and Jeffers getting more time at DH, the 4th OF spot isn't going to get tons of time. Seems reasonable to give Margot another month or so to see if his bat can come around. Martin will be back.
  18. jmlease1
    Would you prefer to throw away last night's game in order to save pitcher's for today's game? Pretty sure Rocco gets buried for that, so guess there's no way for him to win. Jax faced the top of the lineup in the 8th and Thielbar came in with 2 lefty hitters on tap for the 9th. Seems perfectly fine usage, Tight game and a good win with quiet bats. Ryan came out slow but really settled down for a good outing on a night when he wasn't getting the usual levels of K's. Nice to see the team turn a couple of double plays behind him.
  19. jmlease1
    Looking forward to getting Duran and Correa back to add some star power to the roster. Hoping that SWR can hold down the 5th starter role while Varland corrects things in AAA. If the offense has really gotten back into a groove, I think we're going to see the team a lot of us thought this would be. Julien is looking good again, Kirilloff has been quality, and Jeffers has been carrying the load. Miranda has impressed in his return and Castro has gotten himself back on track. If Santana and Farmer are back to being their usual selves, that'll be a big deal against LHP going forward. And if last week's Buxton is going to roll like this for a while... They've survived the injuries reasonably well. Be great if they can keep rolling against the ChiSox, who showed signs of life this weekend.
  20. jmlease1
    Baseball's a funny game, ain't it? I mean, the sorry, no-account ChiSox just swept Tampa. Which is why I don't care who we're beating as long as we're winning. A sweep is a sweep: it's awesome no matter who it's against. Heck, I'm happy any time my team wins a series on the road, because if you're doing that consistently you're probably a dang good team. Wish Lopez could have gotten through the 5th with less damage; he does have some of those "what the hell?" innings where he's absolutely rolling and then it goes sideways. But he survived it and left with a lead. Even better, the offense responded again and piled on 4 more in the 7th. And the offense sure was hitting today! Jeffers is just a beast right now: he's hitting everything, and getting that offense from your catcher is a huge advantage, and him being able to DH for us with guys injured is great too. (doesn't hurt that Vazquez is looking much better at the plate) Really happy to see Farmer bust the slump. Miranda also makes not having Royce a lot easier too. Bullpen did the job too. Keep it up!
  21. jmlease1
    I don't disagree: I think I would prefer they ban position players from pitching. it was no big deal when this happened a handful of times a season, but a handful of times by May? Blech.
  22. jmlease1
    I don't think it makes any sense to try to convert Duran back to the rotation on the fly this season. We'd be trying to get him stretched out in his remaining rehab assignments and asking him to get back to starting midseason after not having made a start in 3 years? Seems like a recipe for failure, especially for a player that has had injury issues in the past and was moved into the bullpen in part because of concerns about his ability to stay healthy. He's converted successfully into one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. Whipping a change because we don't have significant depth for the rotation seems like a massive risk. And while no one is thrilled that Varland needed to go back down, SWR has been more than acceptable so far...so why exactly would we bump him from the rotation in favor of taking a moonshot on Duran in the rotation? Just to have depth? Nah. Let SWR cook. Get Duran back as the best fireman in the business, shutting down the best part of the opposition lineup late in the game.
  23. jmlease1
    I feel like if they're going to throw an outfielder on the mound you should look to add some runs and punish the other team for quitting. Ensure that last bats are irrelevant. Angels are mad that Jeffers hit a dinger? Maybe they should have put in a real pitcher instead of a guy throwing less than BP.
  24. jmlease1
    I like Winokur and he's an interesting prospect, but I'm definitely concerned about his Ks. He's also only at 5 BB on the season, so he's got to improve his ability to control the strike zone. Yes, it's a more difficult hitting environment, but he's also swinging at everything.
  25. jmlease1
    Nice to have a bit of a laugher driven by the offense hitting the ball all over the place. Jeffers and Julien are rolling right now, and it's good to see guys who were slumping get well. Paddack could have been better, but he chewed up 5. To my mind he's still the 4th starter on this squad, and he's been good enough coming back from a significant injury. We'll see where he is in a month or so. Didn't love seeing Hicks lobbing balls in to close out the game. Even after tightening up the rules, it still looks unprofessional. And teams are all carrying 7 or 8 bullpen guys now, so come on. Just don't care for it. 6 game winning streaks are nice!
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