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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Varland is an interesting prospect. The Twins system depth is pretty high right now so it might be a challenge for him to crack the top 20, but based on performance he should get some serious consideration. He's responded really well to not having a 2020 season, but it still put him a year behind on his development track; you'd like to see him in AA at his age, but it's hard to say he should have skipped A-ball entirely after less than 10 innings in rookie ball and coming from a small school college program. but when a guy executes, you have to reward him for it. I'm guessing he's borderline top 20 for the Twins next year and starts in AA. If he can make that jump he'll be on a good track. I'm not super worried about Balazovic either; yes, he hasn't finished as dominant as we'd like to see, but he's handled the transition to AA pretty well, especially while working on a new pitch. He still looks like a guy who's going to be in line to make his MLB debut at some point in 2022, and I'm happy to have him pitching this late in the year. I'd bet on a spring training looksee and a start in AAA. Duran, Balazovic, Strotman, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Sands...nice group of guys with good upside to compete for shots in the rotation after the injuries/ineffectiveness hits for the MLB club. (right now, I'm betting on the rotation being: "best FA starter we can get", Pineda, Ryan, Ober, and Dobnak/reclamation project flyer out of spring training with the 7 guys I listed above getting looks in spring training and fighting for their shot by May. Duran could grab the 5th spot if he's healthy out of spring training...) The upside on these 7 guys is higher than guys like Thorpe or Jax, so hopefully the talent pays out.
  2. jmlease1
    You're more of a hate stylist? (tm Tom Hanks)
  3. jmlease1
    Well, some of this context has already been done at places like Baseball America and FanGraphs; didn't take hours to track it down, more like 10 minutes. But you're putting forward the analysis of the front office's draft ability, so it's fair game if you've missed something important, and I think you have. But the biggest problem with this as a blog post for me is that the thesis feels incoherent. Almost everything you're presenting is highly critical of the front office's draft results and strategy...but then you tell us that the final grade is still ok and you're not calling for them to be fired like an Uber driver. If you believe that their strategy is wrong, that they're making a lot of mistakes, and that their drafts are not panning out and should have better results by now, then stick with it. Don't cop out and tell me a "C" grade is ok; tell me why you're right to give them what will be perceived as a pretty crummy grade.
  4. jmlease1
    I don't think your expectation is borne out by baseball draft history. Sure, for a top 5 pick like Royce Lewis the expectation is that he's going to be a major league player, and have a good chance at being more than that. And those top five picks almost always get to the majors and with at least some success. But first round picks still bust all the time, and expecting that the twins picks are going to be immune to that doesn't make sense to me. Falvey has had 1 top 5 pick (#1 overall), 1 pick in the top 15, and everything else 20 or lower. If all these guys make the majors it'd be amazing
  5. jmlease1
    You're a tough grader. I don't think most fans are going to consider a C to be acceptable? I also think you're skipping an analytical component in this: signing status on the pick. We got Enlow because we were able to go above slot on him. Why did we have the resources available? Lewis was a guy we didn't have to go high on to get him to sign, and Rooker was signed below slot. but the bigger issue is you explicitly say player development is separate from drafting...but your grades seem very much tied to the player development side of things, as you evaluate these players today on their progress in the system and projection in the future. For example: Landon Leach got crushed in this analysis, but he did fine in his initial exposure to rookie ball and then got hurt/lost a season to the pandemic. (btw, he was a HS selection not a collegiate one)
  6. jmlease1
    I think Colome is likely to have a solid season next year and be a good-to-very good closer. I think his option is pretty reasonable. but I think the Twins might not pick it up just because the fanbase might have too much PTSD from the early season disaster. Colome still has a negative WPA (hard to dig out of that hole when you have so many brutal outings early and the teram overall being so bad later) but the ERA+ is decent. It's harder to argue for regression back to the mean in a player who is getting older, but considering the relative fungibility of relief pitching and Colome's otherwise fine track record...he seems likely to do pretty well next year. Which would be worse for twins fans? bring him back for another go, or watch him leave and pitch at least adequately elsewhere?
  7. jmlease1
    I assumed that the 4 points related to concerns about Donaldson's trade value were: 1. His health, 2. His health, 3. the health he is experiencing, and 4. How much health he has.
  8. jmlease1
    Does Jax have good stuff, though? I'm increasingly unconvinced. He's got good command and control, but he doesn't have a ton of velocity or movement on his fastball and all of his off-speed stuff just seems...ok. He looks like a guy who needs to go back and re-tool something in the offseason to have any hope of surviving as a starter, and without a go-to out pitch I'm not sure he has much future as a reliever except as a long man/mop-up guy. I like the guy and he was worth giving a shot, but...right now he just looks bad. When Berrios was getting his brains kicked in, he still had a lively fastball and a plus curve to work with. Not sure jax has the weapons to compete. I'm confused as to why Moran got sent out for that long of an outing as well. Do they really think he's a 2+ inning guy? With his change-up I still think he's going to be fine, but I'm not sure that 30+ pitch outings are in his wheelhouse
  9. jmlease1
    He's struggled a bit at the plate this year, had a horrid July and been on a tear every since. But his OPS+ is sitting at 103 and takes into account park effects. He's probably going to finish with a bWAR of 3.5-4 but with with his D sliding back a bit from Gold Glove levels and the hot market for SS's...he might not get the deal he's looking for. Maybe he will, but if it's not there and he wants to show that he can get it done outside of Colorado at the plate...there might be a bridge deal available. Figuring out the SS market is going to be interesting, but there definitely should be enough options that the Twins don't have to trade for a guy like Torres.
  10. jmlease1
    I'm a no on this kind of deal and Torres as a good fit for us. the FA market on SS is going to be a really good one this off-season and I'd rather get a guy there than buy low on a Yankee, especially one who is stretched at SS. we already have a bunch of guys who are stretched at SS; if we trade/sign a player for SS they need to not be stretched there. (Trevor Story is the guy I really like right now, but I suspect someone will give him the 4 year $20M deal he probably is looking for...but if it's not there and he wants to go short term to build up his value again away from the Rockies? yes, please.)
  11. jmlease1
    Good to see Strotman have a solid outing. I still have a lot of questions about him, but I wouldn't mind seeing him get a shot before the season ends to see how he reacts to MLB hitters (it's not like Andrew Albers is blocking him). I suspect he'll get a chance to impress in spring training next year and likely start in AAA as one of options 6-10 for the rotation as the season goes on. be interesting to see how he continues to adapt to the organization. If they can make good adjustments with him the way they have with Ober... Any reason Woods-Richardson came out after only 3 innings? I like him as a prospect, but starters only throwing 3 innings in AA doesn't exactly make my socks roll up and down. I think it's fair to rank celestino where he is; should he be up a few more spots? maybe, but I don't know how much difference there is between 10-15 on the list, really. He's bounced back well after being thrown into the MLB lineup too early: could be a great fit as a bench OF next year with defensively flexibility and being a RH hitter helps him as well (an OF rotation of Buxton, kepler, Kirilloff, celestino, and Larnach could be pretty great)
  12. jmlease1
    So happy to hear that the x-rays were negative. Maybe he'll only have to skip a start and can finish the season strong and healthy.
  13. jmlease1
    Guys, can you check the prospect summary? Once again, Noah Miller's stats are getting reported as "Did Not Pitch". Now, 1-5 with 2 K's is not exactly exciting, but I know people are still interesting in seeing how he's doing in rookie ball since he's on the top 20 list.
  14. jmlease1
    Noah Miller appears to be off to a decent start playing professionally? (even if on the top 20 prospect list he keeps showing up as "did not pitch", which is accurate, I guess, since he plays SS) Hitting for average and a bit of power, getting on base a respectable amount...and plenty of Ks, lol. Be really interesting to see the evaluation on him at the end of the season, especially to hear what people think about his defense. It's rookie ball, so who knows if the stats mean anything, but glad to have him playing!
  15. jmlease1
    He's doing great so far. Hope he continues to have this kind of success. He does still need to keep working on his off-speed stuff, but it does look better than initially advertised, and the curve/change make him more than just a 2-pitch guy. He's definitely had some hard-hit balls and big flies that have landed in gloves already...if a couple of those warning-track flies against Cleveland had gone in the seats we would be talking about him very differently. But I do think the fastball plays, and getting tape on him isn't necessarily going to fix that for hitters. It's one thing to know a guy has different action on his fastball and still another to hit it. I like his command so far (impressive for a rookie), I like how fast he works (not a fan of guys who meditate on the mound, contemplating the universe), and I think if he can keep working on the edges of the zone he'll be very successful. And if he can tick up the comfort level and action on that change? Could be fun. He's going to have a few bumps. Not going to be shocked at all if he has a blow-up start in Sept, but that won't change my opinion on him: he can start in this league and unless he totally collapses the rest of the way he should be penciled in to the rotation for next year.
  16. jmlease1
    Yeah, I'm not sure Simmons makes the top five worst signings? He's been bad, but Nishioka was worse and was a multi-year deal. I tend to agree that 1 year deals limit how "bad" it ever is. You're much worse off when you sign a guy to a 3-5 year deal and he bombs than having a bridge signing (which Simmons clearly has been) to a 1 year deal. Nolasco's deal was ugly, though I'm sure I was hopeful at the time. But he was awful and we had to give up on a prospect that we still liked to get rid of his contract. (Meyer busted out too, but at the time it was hard to be happy about seeing him go...was even worse when Icky Nolasco was good for half a season for the Angels...)
  17. jmlease1
    Velocity isn't everything, though. We've seen enough guys who throw mid-to-upper 90's whose fastball was as flat and straight as can be and those guys get crushed. Ryan's fastball has good life and movement on it, which should make it harder for guys to consistently catch up/square up on it. Jury's still out on his secondary stuff, but he's not just a fastball/slider guy: he does throw a change up and a curve (and definitely had a few nice ones that he dropped in for strikes early in the count). The big flies he gave up could be troublesome against better hitters, so we'll see how he does, but if he can stay out of the heart of the plate and away from 3-ball counts, he can be a quality pitcher.
  18. jmlease1
    I mean, Cleveland has a garbage fire of an offense...but you can only pitch to the batters in front of you. I look forward to seeing how Ryan does against a good offense. I think he'll do ok. A few more starts like this and the pencil being used to put him in next year's rotation will become ink.
  19. jmlease1
    Terrific outing from Joe Ryan. Might have a future in this league! I got a little nervous on some of those deep flies, but Ryan sure didn't look nervous about it. Looking forward to watching more of his starts and seeing how he lands. Loved the defensive play by Jeffers late holding on to that foul tip. That's a great job and I love seeing it. Big bomb from Sano too.
  20. jmlease1
    Kepler hasn't been great this year, but despite the low BA he's been an average hitter because he draws walks and hits for decent power. Throw in his good defense (good in right, average in CF this season...down a bit, probably because of the injuries) and he's basically an average starter. Astudillo is...not. Simmons has been good defensively, but so bad on offense that Kepler has still added more value to the team despite playing abut 20% less. Cave has been awful this year, but also literally broke his back. While I don't want him back...I'm gonna give him a bit of a pass.
  21. jmlease1
    On what planet? Astudillo is a poor defensive catcher. His value at the plate has been basically exactly the same as Jeffers and Jeffers is getting killed for sucking at the plate. Just because Astudillo has a better BA doesn't make him a better hitter, and his utter inability to draw walks means that unless he's hitting close to .300 he ain't good. His value is in his versatility, but he's a poor defender at basically every position. Look, La Tortuga is a fun player...but he's not a good one. Jeffers is a having a tough go of it, but this is his rookie season; despite playing 26 games last year he still meets the requirements for RoY in 2021. (obviously, he won't win)
  22. jmlease1
    7 will likely be with the organization in some fashion: Rooker, Larnach, Sano, Jax, Dobnak, Celestino, and Jeffers will be with the Twins. Rooker, Larnach, Celestino, Jax, and Jeffers all have options left; Jeffers might make it out of spring training as the backup, but we'll see. Celestino might compete for the 4th OF spot...and actually might be ready to be a good contributor now that he's had time in AAA (where he should have been for most of the season). Jax is going to be battling for the 5th spot, might have a chance at a bullpen role, but will probably be in AAA starting. Sano is 1.1 bWAR right now and if he can avoid another horrid start is a useful player. Larnach needs the AAA time to deal with constant off-speed stuff and get a reset. Rooker...is probably a AAAA player and will likely be battling for the last spot on the roster. All of this seems ok to me. we need the FA bets next season to not completely implode like Happ, Simmons, Colome did (and Colome has been fine since his dreadful first couple of months; if he wasn't inducing PTSD in the fan base I'd consider picking up his option)
  23. jmlease1
    Sano has actually been a solid performer overall this year and has been very good after a horrific start. he was very good in both July & August and wasn't bad in May & June. The trick for Sano next season is going to be how to have an acceptable start to the season, rather than wait 2 months to get going...
  24. jmlease1
    I'm actually not all that optimistic about Jax as a reliever for reasons described above: no out pitch. I think his command is actually pretty good for a young pitcher, but he needs to be really on to be effective and I don't think he can do that at this point in his career. He either needs to tweak a pitch in his arsenal for increased effectiveness or add another pitch that he can command to be more than a spot starter/long reliever. This was only a "good" start in the context of his previous couple, and continues to show that his margin of error is really fine. I do agree that he should stay in the rotation through the end of the year: give him the innings. Let's see if a) this is who he is, b) if he can adjust, c) if he can improve.
  25. jmlease1
    whoof, that's a rough night for the prospect list: only 1 guy in the top 11 played, only Urbina had a particularly good night among the top 20. Strotman has got some work to do. He was never the key piece in the Cruz deal to me, but if he can't figure out his command, he's going to wash out pretty fast in the organization. The talent is there, but the execution isn't coming through very well at all. Which guy is he, the one who was nearly ready for MLB in Tampa or the guy who looks like a hot mess in MN? And frankly, his utility as a reliever isn't all that high if command is his constant issue. He looks like he needs a reset right now, and I don't know how he gets it right now.
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