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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Always go with the heavier weight, lol. It's amazing how long some of the early weights stick on a guy. He doesn't have an elite score on any of his scouting grades, which will almost always pull down the overall even if he doesn't have a bad one. Scouts will always prefer a prospect that has at least one elite tool over someone who is average to above-average in everything. And I understand that, because as a kid advances through the system, if you don't have something elite to fall back on it gets harder and harder for you to master more advanced competition. Hajjar is interesting, and seems like a quality 2nd round pick. If they can up his velocity to the mid-90's consistently without destroying his arm and he can maintain control, then he could move up pretty darn fast. I love the fact that he's a lefty and if really does have a quality changeup that could be fun. It'll be interesting to see if the additional velocity on he fastball helps or hurts it (or had no effect at all, I suppose). The bit of deception in a great changeup is one of those things that's really hard to define, IMHO, and finding what the right differentiation between the velocity of the fastball and the change could be the difference between missing bats, especially if his fastball doesn't have a lot of spin.
  2. jmlease1
    A deadline deal might make sense, in part because if he's hitting well (and I think he will) and healthy then he could actually bring back an asset and not just salary relief. But right now there doesn't seem to be any kind of market for him that wouldn't net the Twins anything more than salary relief and a roster spot (and roster spots are an important asset, to be sure) and right now I don't think salary relief helps anyone other than Jim Pohlad, especially since we've done a fairly poor job of allocating dollars to this point as is. The thing on that too is...maybe the team surprises. No expectations, but a pretty darn good lineup, a couple of young pitchers step up immediately, and who knows? Donaldson's bat could be an important part of that. Holding for a deadline deal gives you better options, I think.
  3. jmlease1
    The reason people more broadly are down on Donaldson is actually very simple: he got hurt in game one and missed 10 games right at the start of the season. That set the tone for people's perception of him as an aging, injured player for the whole year especially as the season imploded early and his absence certainly didn't help. The reality is, he only missed 17 games the rest of the way, many of which were simply regular days off designed to keep him in the lineup. Donaldson was a very good player and worth the money he was being paid, even DHing a chunk of the time. He's still got the ability to hit well enough again this season to be a valuable member of the team, especially if the team can manage his legs well enough out the gate to keep him playing 140-150 games. And considering where the payroll stands, I wouldn't deal him just to dump salary. Let him split time with Miranda at 3B this year, let the kid learn how to play 3B from a guy who has been one of the best at it, and let him transition to a little more DH. He's a thumper in the lineup and his bat plays, even if his defense is slipping from elite to just solid.
  4. jmlease1
    I was fine on the Cotton pickup: low-risk, good reward. Definitely some indicators in his numbers to suggest he can be effective. I think Texas made a mistake in not retaining him, but maybe they felt they had a roster crunch or assumed the arbitration price was going to soar too high. Twins appear to have managed that price aspect well: they're paying him enough for him to want to be here, not so much that they're going to fall into the sunk cost fallacy if he stinks. The bullpen looks pretty decent to me, even now. I'd like to see one more RHP with some high gas as an option, maybe? But I just don't believe in throwing lots of dollars at relievers who are frequently so fungible, and would rather construct my bullpen this way, where you cycle through some guys on the back end, convert failed starters out of your system, and don't overpay on guys that have limited utility. Taylor Rogers is worth spending his contract on this year because a) he's been consistently good for several years, b) there's no guaranteed obligation, and c) he has clear trade value. But I would always hesitate on throwing big money on FA relievers, especially if it's attached to a multi-year deal. There are just better options. Cotton is an underrated signing, I think. The cost is good, there's decent upside, and it's easy to move on if it busts.
  5. jmlease1
    Why don't you see him sticking at SS? He appears to have the skills to compete there and of all his tools right now the glove looks the best. The concerns seem to be more about his offensive potential, and if he's a plus defensively, it's certainly easier to absorb a bad bat when it's at SS, even in today's game. I don't see him rushing through the system, but if he can start at Ft. Myers this season and go one level per year, this will look like a very good pick, I think. I'm always less worried about a player's power production a) in general, as I think it's easier to add, and b) for an 18 year old.
  6. jmlease1
    It's still a high-profile program, though. They go to the College World Series, their players get drafted, and every player thinks they're invulnerable, so...
  7. jmlease1
    You could easily put Balazovic and Winder on this list too.
  8. jmlease1
    I suspect the height had something to do with it, and there were some questions about what secondary offerings Petty had, since he basically only threw fastballs in high school. I wouldn't be surprised if California vs. New Jersey had something to do with it: long seasons in CA with scouts everywhere and the hype gets going fast. Jersey? Less so. (Not like playing in Kenosha or something like that, but still) I'm always nervous about picking high school pitchers, but in this spot, it's a smart risk to take. The upside is worth it. It's much scarier in the top five (I'm having Kohl Stewart flashbacks).
  9. jmlease1
    If I had to bet, I'd say he spend the whole year at Ft. Myers, in part because of his age and the sophisticated complex the Twins have built up there, giving them maximum resources in place to support his development. Unless he's just crushing it so thoroughly that it demands a promotion to Cedar Rapids. But I would bet on Ft. Myers this year and if he's performing well, more aggressive promotion to follow after that (If he's doing well starting the year in Cedar Rapids, an early promotion to AA, etc). And I'm fine with that. The kid is 19 with a thunderbolt for a right arm. Get him off to the best, smartest start you can at Ft. Myers and it will serve him well to advance quickly through the system. I'd say if things go well he'll be in MLB late 2024/early2025.
  10. jmlease1
    we'll know a lot more about how fast he can progress after this season. If he can dominate in a full-season of pro ball, then he could move quickly, especially because it doesn't look like he has major mechanical issues they really need to iron out. But 2023 is pretty unrealistic.
  11. jmlease1
    Dobnak is an easy choice to bounce back simply because he should be healthy. A healthy Dobnak isn't a bad pitcher and should be able to slide in as a 5th starter type. I like the Cotton pickup as a bullpen guy because he's cheap, right-handed and has a shot to be very solid. I don't know that bounce back is really the right category for him, because he was pretty good for Texas last year. I don't see him as a starting option; he really hasn't done that since 2017...and he wasn't great at it. I'm guessing Texas looked at his WHIP and didn't think the success was all that sustainable, which is fair, but he seems worth taking a shot on. I think his long-term success in the bullpen depends on two things: whether his reduced hr/9 is a result of the move to the bullpen and his current approach, or a small sample mirage and if he can keep the BB/9 manageable. Bundy is unlikely to be the guy he was in 2020, but 2019 is doable. The 2020 performance screams small sample size. The real question is whether or not he's healthy and if he can keep the ball in the park. When he's keeping the ball in the park at a reasonable rate, he's a decent pitcher who can chew up innings. When it spikes up over 2 per 9, he's in the trash heap. (see 2021 and 2018) He was a decent risk to take a flyer on, but expecting anything like 2020 is foolish.
  12. jmlease1
    It's going to be very fun to see what he can do at 19 in A-ball. He doesn't look like a guy who needs to grow/fill-in for his body all that much, which should help him. But he's going to need to learn more about how to pitch, how to set up hitters, etc because you simply can't destroy everyone in pro ball with 100 mph gas like you can in HS. If he can master that changeup then he's going to be destructive. The fastball should play on anyone, and if he's got an off-speed pitch to play up against lefties then he's going to be in really good shape because that fastball-slide combo should be deadly against righties. High school pitchers are risky, but this is the kind of upside play I like to see when picking late in the round.
  13. jmlease1
    I've been a huge fan of Greinke for a long time, but everything about him right now suggests that he's at the end of the line. Will he get crushed and be an embarrassment out there? Eh, probably not, because he's such a smart pitcher that he'll still be able to get over more times than he should...but hoo boy. There's just not anything in his numbers (and age is a number too) that suggests to me he's going to find any kind of resurgence or even hold with last year's pace. There's real risk that Greinke is JA Happ, Part 2. The upside is the hope that he can grind out 150 innings at a 4.50 ERA. Not sure I'm excited about that? Now, considering how short we are in starters...maybe 1 year of Greinke isn't so bad while the young guys find their footing. The odds are very good that Greinke will at least start the season healthy and ready, and a short spring training probably won't hurt him as much as some? But this ain't Greinke from 5 years ago and we need to understand that.
  14. jmlease1
    I think this is pretty spot on. the utter youth on the international signings is going to keep most of them out of the rankings until they've been in the system for a couple of years, because there's so little to evaluate them on and you expect even their tools to be behind the older players coming from stateside. a 16-17 year old kid is going to have to be awfully special to crack a list like this. I don't think it's any kind of indictment of the organization, which has been one of the more engaged ones in the international market (investing in central america, paying attention to places like australia, etc)
  15. jmlease1
    Which is also why Josh Donaldson isn't on this list, even though he might still be a very good hitter and effective player in 2022; between his age, injury history, and salary he probably has negative value as a trade asset and it's difficult to plan on him being a significant contributor in 2023 (even though again...he might be). I'm a big Austin Martin guy: I think the power will come, but his control of the strike zone and ability to get hits is going to play regardless. I keeping thinking about him playing in LF with Buxton in CF and every fly ball pitcher in MLB going "yeah, I wanna play there".
  16. jmlease1
    Joe Ryan is already in rotation and looks like a real pitcher. we got him for half a season of a 40-year old DH in a lost season, and added Drew Strotman as well, whose floor looks like "bullpen weapon" and still might make it as a starter. Hell, we even saved money on the deal. Even if both pitchers flame out, it was a smart deal...and Ryan sure doesn't look like a guy who is going to flame out. Buxton put up 4.5 bWAR in 61 games last year. pro-rated to 150 games, that's an 11 bWAR season! That's Wllie freakin' Mays. Of course he's a generational talent. He is a spectacularly talented player who can do things on the field only a handful a players in all of baseball can do. Yes, he's missed a lot of time and one of the most important abilities is availability...but this FO has managed to put together a contract that keeps the most exciting player I've ever seen in a Twins uniform here while protecting the organization if he's not healthy. He's got the same kind of talent that Joe Mauer had before the concussions. You can reasonably talk about him in the same sentence as Mike Trout, who has put up 7 or 8 MVP-caliber seasons in 10 years. he is truly great...and I hope he annihilates the league next year and the twins have to pay him every possible bonus.
  17. jmlease1
    I thought about this one a lot, and for me it came to signing Pineda cost us nothing but cash and Maeda we had to give up a legitimate prospect who would have been a solid bullpen piece. I would still do the Maeda deal 100 out of 100, but signing Pineda was a clever move that required some extra creativity but cost the team less, so in terms of front-office moves I credit it a bit higher. The Odorizzi deal certainly could qualify, as we did very well on that one: Odo was ok the first season in MN, very good the second year, before injuries wrecked his walk year...and we got back the prospect we dealt for free (who has gotten back on track with the team to the point that he's a reasonable SS option in the organization again). Can't ask for much better in a trade, really.
  18. jmlease1
    I think the moves are correct, but I'd put both of the Cruz moves above the Pineda signing.
  19. jmlease1
    I probably would have done the order differently...and I admit I really have trouble knowing exactly how to rank Joe Ryan who is rookie-eligible, but also sort of graduated. So, I'll leave Ryan where he is? the other 4 guys (all of whom I really like), I probably go Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, Woods-Richardson...and then immediately feel bad for not ranking woods-richardson high enough. I think W-R got messed up by the Olympics and not pitching in japan and having all that time off, so I don't take his 2021 all that seriously as an indicator of his real ability. I think he's a terrific pitcher and it's amazing to me that some people are treating him almost as a throw-in with Martin in the Berrios deal. It's a nice top five and stronger than anything we've had in some time. I worry about the elbow and shoulder injuries and I worry that the lockout may impact development on guys that need normal years. these guys got skipped a year of competitive baseball in 2020, had a still semi-goofy COVID year, and now have the lockout following all of that. UGH.
  20. jmlease1
    I'm a big fan of Celestino and I think he could be the ideal 4th OF for the Twins, possibly even this season. RH bat is great with guys like Kirilloff, Kepler, and Larnach around and his ability to play any OF spot could be really useful, especially with Buxton's injury history. Really liked how well he played in AAA after getting thrown into the deep end of the pool in MLB well before he was ready. Says some things about his mental toughness, I think. I do believe in his defense, I just think he was overthinking it when he got called up so early. He's a nice player, I'm excited to see what he can do. Sabato is the guy I'm less excited about. While I appreciate his understanding of the strike zone and ability and willingness to take a walk, I'm still very concerned about his ability to make contact. When he does it goes a long damn way, but a college bat with his eye should have been able to do better in low-A, even if it is the FSL. I hope the Cedar Rapids stint is more representative of his ability, but that wasn't a terribly long stretch and he could have just been on a hot stretch. We'll see. I'll be interested to see where he starts the season: Cedar Rapids or Wichita? As we've seen with Rooker, you have to make contact for that power to play and Sabato has little positional flexibility to improve his standing. I can see why someone would pick him over Wallner right now (the walks and power projection are appealing) but I'm not one of them. They look like similar hitters right now and Wallner can at least play in the OF (might not cover a ton of ground, but he's got a fine arm out there) and Sabato looks like a DH who can function at 1B. Maybe the Cedar Rapids Sabato is who he really is (I hope so), but I just have trouble minimizing how brutal he was in Ft. Myers. Julien is really intriguing. I'm not worried about where he'll play if he can keep raking like this; you find a position for a guy if he gets on base and smacks the ball around like this. The K's are worrisome, though. You can get away with it in A-ball when pitchers will give you free ones because they simply can't put the ball in the zone consistently, but the more you advance the less it works. You have to be able to make contact when the ball is in the zone. If Julien can get his K rate down in the 20-25% range, he's going to be a player to watch who will rise quickly. If he can't, I think that BA is going to plummet.
  21. jmlease1
    I'm not sure I'd qualify Kirilloff or Winder as "sleepers"; Kirilloff is a top prospect who hit well in his rookie campaign before getting injured. Expectations are high for him. Winder was the Twins representative in the Futures Game and is being touted as a top pitching prospect who is ready to step into the rotation if healthy. I think the expectations are too high for what these guys can do to qualify them as sleepers, really. Moran on the other hand...I'm a big fan and I do think people are sleeping on him. He's still got some things to work on in terms of his command, but that changeup is filthy and will make him effective against righties and lefties and he's going to be a weapon early, IMHO. I kinda think people are sleeping on Duffy at this point: there seems to be this growing consensus that he's tailing off as a player and won't be counted on for the back end of the bullpen any longer, that his velocity is down, blah blah blah. I think he's primed for the bounceback season and while I don't expect him to have some insane strand rate again, I do think he could be a critical set-up man again and have a terrific season.
  22. jmlease1
    I think that's fair. I tend to weight pro performance a bit more in trying to project than maybe some, partly because there's so many things that can go wrong with young pitchers. So when I see a guy like Sands or Varland succeeding at every level they're be asked to pitch at, I probably rate them a little higher than guys who basically have thrown few or no professional innings, even if they're a bit older. Some of this also may shake out a bit better when we're not coming off the first year back in minor league ball too; do guys like them get penalized (whether knowingly or not) because they missed a development year, whereas Petty does not? There's still a bit of a glut in prospect-land right now, IMHO where it's more challenging to really place everyone on the development path because of that missing year. How many guys got injured because they didn't have competitive baseball in 2020? How many needed extra time to adjust to being back in games? I think you could make a case for grouping guys from 6-15 into two pools: 1) young guys with big tools, little pro experience, and high ceilings, 2) older guys with possibly lesser tools but more pro performance (who missed a development year). Not easy to know which ones out of either pool will keep rising up. Except Duran, who is in the high minors and just needs health or he's going to end up in the bullpen. I do feel good that we're talking about guys like Petty, Sands, Hajjar, Varland, and Duran and we haven't even hit the top 5 yet! There's a lot of talent in the pitching pipeline and it could be very exciting if the team is successful in developing a decent percentage of it.
  23. jmlease1
    Cleveland and the Twin Cities are pretty comparable markets. The Cleveland market area (which includes Canton and Akron) has about 3.6M people; the Twin Cities market area is about 3.7M. Both are mid-sized markets. The advantage the Twins have is MN has no other teams and the closest other franchises are KC/MKE/Chicago. Cleveland has to compete with Cincinnati in their own state. But there are a lot more people in OH to pull from as well...
  24. jmlease1
    This is where I think philosophy really comes into play and the challenge of performance vs projection makes it an interesting debate on the rankings. I tend to value professional experience over projection on prospect rankings and would probably push guys like Raya and Povich further down the rankings in favor of Sands/Varland from the last set. I just feel better about a guy that has shown the ability to dominate A-ball over someone who doesn't have any professional innings in competitive baseball (or functionally doesn't). With pitching being the hardest thing to project (my opinion), the scholarship bonus for draft position should be reduced a little, and we shouldn't always be seduced by the power of the new. With the brand new guys, we can project anything we want upon them and presume that they will be able to perform. Hajjar was a good pick with a nice college track record, so I'm fine with him in this group. I think there's an error on Chase Petty's stats; he pitched in 2 games for the Twins minor league system and started 1. He's definitely getting a scholarship bonus based on his draft position...which is ok, but I discount that more and more the further you get from the 1st round. Duran has all the tools and pitches to be a front-line starter...we'll see if he can pair that up with the health you need. I'm hoping last season was an aberration born of not having had a minor league season in 2020 and that he'll be able to get it back together. My fear is that the shenanigans going on with the CBA will again put his development back and it will mess up his season. But the upside is terrific.
  25. jmlease1
    I can't decide if Garver ranks too high for me here or not; he's getting older and has injuries, and he's only got two more years of team control left...but at the same time there's such a dearth of MLB catchers who can also hit that someone who can mash like Garver still has significant value, either on the field or in trade. Tough one to rate for me. But it also explains why Jeffers lands this high on the list too: catchers that give you anything on offense are so hard to find that a guy with an OPS+ of 83 last year still added positive value beyond their defense. I'm really excited about Ober and Ryan and look forward to watching their continued development.
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