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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    He's doing great, but he still has stretches where he struggles to finish off a hitter (the Anderson AB last night was a perfect encapsulation of this) and he's been a little fortunate (which is why his FIP is sitting at 3.03 while his ERA is at 2.37). I'm still very happy with everything he's done this season, especially with how he's generally kept the walks and HRs down. If he can keep on this kind of a run, he's going to be fighting for an all-star slot, though!
  2. jmlease1
    Correct. It's a very reasonable strategy when you're the home team and can play for 1 run to win, but tactically it's a more significant risk for the team in the top of the inning to play for one run, which is essentially what you're doing with by bunting the Manfred Man over to 3rd and surrendering the out. Chicago could bunt the guy over because there was no risk for them to lose and one run walks off the game. The road team doesn't have that advantage.
  3. jmlease1
    yes. sigh. typos are not my friend!
  4. jmlease1
    Because the 3-4-5 hitters were up in the 7th? I'm sure the thought process was to have Lopez (who has been excellent this season) face the heart of the order while trying to preserve the lead in the 7th, have Jax take the 8th, and Moran available to lock it down in the 9th for the save. With the score tied, I'm guessing they were looking at Stewart to run the 9th so that if they scored in the 10th they could again have Moran nail it down for the save. This is all fairly normal bullpen management. The real issue is how little the offense did last night; 3 hits is pretty miserable. They've got to do better even in cold weather...but dang it Correa only needed about another foot to put that ball out and then we're in a whole different story. Ryan did very well last night overall, although i was a little concerned about his inability to finish off a couple of hitters. He got the job done, but there were a few long ABs in there and that's really about the only thing holding him back right now from taking another leap.
  5. jmlease1
    Hate to say it, but it wasn't really that big of a contract. Whether Lopez is actually an "ace" or not is almost immaterial, because that deal is more like the market rate for a #2 or #3 starter these days. Look at what someone like Marcus Stroman or Chris Bassitt is getting on the free agent market these days, and neither one is an "ace". (BTW, Buxton is sitting on a 143 OPS+ right now and is on pace for a career high in HRs. He seems fine, even without adding anything on defense so far) 2 games are a blip; everything in Lopez's peripherals suggest he's going to be just fine this season. Why evaluate Lopez just on his last 2 games? Why not his first two games? Or his middle two? If he fires 7 shutout against the ChiSox this weekend does the extension go from "bad" to "good"?
  6. jmlease1
    nice to see several of the college pitchers drafted in 2022 doing well to start the season. That said, I would hope that college pitchers would be able to push people around in low-A. Zebby Matthews has been very good so far, but he's also 23 and taking care of business against a lot of guys who are younger and less experienced. (same goes for Lewis and Jones) I am curious to see if the twins are taking advantage of some marketplace inefficiencies, though in targeting college pitchers in later rounds (often from smaller or northern schools it seems). There may be guys out there who if given more intensive coaching, training, and a higher level of expertise and attention can develop into quality starters from these late round picks and players like Matthews, Lewis, and Jones (much like the way Festa has developed or Varland) could become interesting prospects and potential major leaguers without ever getting very high on anyone's prospect list.
  7. jmlease1
    I normally root for the ChiSox to lose at all times, but I was weirdly happy to see them steal a win against TB. Just felt like it would be classic MN sports luck for a team in an epic losing streak to break it against us and win a series. Going into the season, I didn't think the ChiSox had done enough to address their offense and that seems to be playing out so far. Sure, they've had some guys miss time, but they're also just not very deep and it's showing. the pitching is a bit better than it's shown so far (Kopech is better than this and should get it going soon, hopefully not against us!) but they were always asking for a lot in counting on Clevinger and Lynn. The whole staff has been very very hittable, so if the twins batters stay within themselves, and stick to their plans at the plate, they should be able to pound out a lot of hits. they're clearly missing Hendriks in the bullpen, but adding one stud to the back end won't fix their problems. the team WHIP is just rotten. That said, a series win would be great. Go on the road, take 2 of 3 against a division opponent and life is good. Would love the sweep, but I'll be very happy with a series win. Especially looking forward to seeing how Varland does, assuming he's the one who slides in for Mahle.
  8. jmlease1
    Still on the injured list. fractured thumb, I think?
  9. jmlease1
    Severino is showing why the Twins went after him hard when the Braves cheating opened the opportunity. Yes, the Ks are something to watch out for, but he's also drawing walks, and the power is impressive. He was good last season at Wichita and right now he seems determined to prove it wasn't just small sample size. I expect Cossetti will advance quickly if he keeps pounding Low-A like this. Yes, he's a bit older as a college bat, but the FSL is still a tough league to hit in, so this is a good sign. (I wonder if this is the kind of production they thought they were going to get from Sabato?) Contreras is a tough eval. He's off to an excellent start, but he's also 28. He was just ok in AAA last season, and didn't impress in his short stint in MLB. But it's a great start. Does he just need an opportunity, or is he a AAAA player? Think it's going to be tough for him to get any run in MLB this season with Kirilloff and Wallner ahead of him as lefty OF bats. not surprised to see Wallner doing well in AAA. Probably good for him to draw even more walks. Shuffield is doing well, but at 24 he needs to get out of the FSL and needs to stay on the field if he's going to make it as a utility guy. But probably not a lot of time available in cedar rapids right now
  10. jmlease1
    Tough break for Mahle. I'll admit to being very concerned about this injury and whether he's able to recover from it with rest/therapy and avoid surgery. We've been through this dance before with pitchers where they try to shut it down for a while and get right and avoid the knife and eventually they end up having the surgery and get knocked out for the year, so I am afeared we're facing that again. (I'm not saying it's the wrong decision to try everything you can to avoid surgery; you should always try to avoid the need for surgery if you can. It's just that the odds seem poor.) Thank goodness we have the pitching depth for the rotation to deal with this. Thankfully, Sonny Gray got his regular program in and isn't already on the IL with a bum leg. Thankfully, Joe Ryan is a horse. Thankfully, there's been no problems with Pablo Lopez. We knew Ober and Varland were going to get chances this season. their time is now.
  11. jmlease1
    Not a surprise that the return of Polanco had a significant impact on the offense: he's a heck of a player and going into the season he was clearly the 3rd best position player on the roster. Losing him for several weeks was always going to be a bit of a drag. Great week for the Twins. 5-2 is a pretty nice record. Only blemish is Mahle: that injury doesn't sound good to me, and we're very fortunate to have Varland and Ober ready to go. (I'm a little less concerned with Maeda, who I always expected to miss some time and the injury feels less serious) Big week coming up with division foes, lots of opportunity to put some real distance between us and the rest of the central.
  12. jmlease1
    That does seem to be the way this team does things: if someone needs a kick in the butt or be given some pointed instruction, etc they do it out of the view of the fans and the press. They're much more of a " keep things on an even keel" sort of squad for the most part, especially for the coaching staff and front office. That's frequently less satisfying for fans, but it's probably seen as a real positive by the players. Disappointing loss, but hopefully the team comes out on fire on sunday and takes the series. a split would be disappointing, but taking 3 of 4 would be just ducky. Ober did pretty well, looks like a major-league pitcher. Can he have a healthy season? I'd feel much more confident in him if he could get through a full season and throw 140-150 innings...
  13. jmlease1
    I've been told repeatedly on this site that we must send starters deeper into games. I'm sure Rocco would have been absolutely buried if he had lifted Lopez after 5 innings and a low pitch count with a 6-run lead. I was surprised to see Lopez have two consecutive struggle innings in the 6th and 7th, and I'd argue that Vazquez didn't do him any favors by continuing to push the breaking stuff. Good to see the offense rolling a bit right now. Jumping on a pitcher early is never bad.
  14. jmlease1
    Is there a reason this post has been at the top of the website for like 3 days?
  15. jmlease1
    I think this is right. Even an utter trash fire of a major league baseball club is going to win 40 games from somewhere (which is pretty much the pace the Royals are on) and while I'd love to collect a sweep, it'd be no shame to take 3 of 4. KC's offense has been pretty rotten, but they're probably not as bad as it's been so far. The rotation isn't good, but it's not horrible (Singer has been their worse performer to date, but he's their best starter). Twins will have to be patient at the plate and not try to win the series on one swing. We are definitely sending out a good collection of starters to try and shut down the Royals! Good opportunity, be fun to see if the players can execute.
  16. jmlease1
    It was a good series for the Twins. They've still got some things to work through, but having a top three of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan has me more confident in this rotation than I've been in a very long time. Tyler Mahle hasn't been bad (in previous years we would have been thrilled with his production), he just hasn't been as great as the others. Maeda is definitely struggling, but how many years have we been worrying about our #3 starter struggling instead of our #5? Polanco being back has made a significant difference. I felt going into the season he was the Twins 3rd best position player so there's no wonder that his bat was missed. And with Farmer out and Nick Gordon having a nightmare start to the season we've really needed him back and he was a huge contributor in the wins against the Yankees. It's early in the season, but it sure looks like I was wrong about Joey Gallo. I didn't think he was a good fit for this team, and he's been a fantastic fit so far. he hasn't just bounced back from a dreadful season, he's looking like Texas Joey again. Great to see him hammer a couple of dingers against the Yankees. he's been great, and I've never been so happy to be wrong.
  17. jmlease1
    I'm all in on Joe Ryan, who pounds the zone and piles up the outs. Excellent performance tonight, 7 nifty innings to put the Evil Empire to sleep. Gray, Lopez, and Ryan sure gives me a lot of confidence at the top of the rotation. I'm not surprised to see Polanco be such a catalyst for the offense, but it's very welcome. Nice to see Larnach making the necessary adjustments to never seeing a fastball. Be great to see him get on a run slamming slop around and see whether he starts seeing more fastballs.
  18. jmlease1
    Polanco is one of the top 3 position players on this team until someone knocks him off the perch, so it's fantastic to have him back and looking healthy. Even in a bit of an off year last season where he tried to fight through injury (and offense was down all across the league anyways) he was still a dang good player and one of the best offensive players in the league at 2B. I'm thrilled to have him back in the lineup and his switch-hitting is important. It's a little unfortunate that several of our best prospects all play his position, but they're going to have to take his spot not get it on scholarship.
  19. jmlease1
    11th best record in all of baseball. They're not as good as they were last season, but they're not a bad team. (as so far they're only 2-3 vs the Twins; last year they went 5-2 vs us. we're one of the reasons they don't look as good)
  20. jmlease1
    Very good team game last night. Gray was very tough and bullied the Evil Empire for 7 innings, but also had some nice defense behind him. And I'll probably always be happy with 10 hits and 6 BBs from the offense. Sure helps to have Polanco back in there. Neither Jax or Moran were sharp last night, but both were able to limit the damage. Would have been nice for them to be a little cleaner, but it's not always going to go that way. Moran might need a re-set in AAA, but it's also still pretty early. Good to see two LH OFs who haven't been great lately come through in Larnach (1 hit, 2 walks) and Kepler (3 hits).
  21. jmlease1
    Very impressive start to the season for Noah Miller. Sure, it's only 12 games, but so far he's showing everything you would have hoped to see this year: improved contact, harder hit balls, while maintaining a good eye at the plate and patience to draw walks. It's only his 2nd year of full-year pro ball, but it looks like he thriving so far in high A at age 20. No complaints and the team must feel pretty good about what they're seeing so far.
  22. jmlease1
    I'd say the Donaldson trade was a net win for the Twins: they got out from under a contract that wasn't a fit for where they were going and away from a player that was increasingly burdensome in the clubhouse and less effective on the field. That's really important for a team with greater payroll constraints. IKF is a decent enough utility guy, but not a significant contributor; the twins got as much value back from Gio Urshela who had a very nice year for the Twins. Sanchez was better than advertised behind the plate but never found his swing again. In just pure baseball value on the field, the Yankees did a bit better when you look at last season's production, but the contract impacts tilt it towards the Twins. I was a big Rortvedt booster but he's been totally unimpactful in that deal. In the end, trading Donaldson is definitely a net positive for the Twins and overall I think the Yankees might prefer a do-over, even if they managed to get ok production out of Donaldson and IKF collectively last season.
  23. jmlease1
    It is a bit of a complicated situation. the Twins like Gordon, but he's off to a dreadful start at the plate. Larnach has more upside, has an option, and has slowed a lot after a fast start. Castro has the same kinds of positional flexibility that Gordon has, but has an option left, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his offense. I think there's a decent argument to be made that you hold on Gordon until Farmer is ready to come back, given that if Kirilloff joins the squad there isn't much available for ABs for Larnach if Buxton keeps DHing...but the choice is coming. Gordon is caught in the worst of the worst: he's been a little unlucky, but he's also been bad. there's basically no trade market for him now, and someone will take a chance on him, so I see little opportunity that he passes through waivers. I this team (like many others) struggles with knowing when to give up on one of their guys. It's one thing to cut bait on a Joe Smith 3 months in; he was an old player on a 1-year deal with no history. It's harder to be that ruthless with one of your own guys who you've seen perform better, I think. (or if it's an asset you traded for, like Pagan) Even if maybe you should. Which seems to be part of why we're sticking with kepler and Gordon, even if they really don't fit as well on the roster any longer. Sunk cost fallacy is hard to rise above.
  24. jmlease1
    Exactly the kind of game the Twins wanted to have. Really good offensive output, quality start from Ryan, and Headrick let the rest of the bullpen take the night off. Sets them up nicely for the rubber match tomorrow. Be great to steal the afternoon tilt on getaway day and finish the road trip with a series win and positive win total for the whole trip. Gallo sure seems to be determined to prove the doubters (like me) wrong. I hope he makes me look like the biggest damn fool of all time. :P
  25. jmlease1
    Rehab assignments have a pretty short timeline (20 days, I think?). After that, you have to put that player back on the 26-man roster or exercise an option to send them back down to the minors. Pretty sure that's impossible with Polanco. Kirilloff has one left I think, but I'm not sure sending him back down to AAA longer really changes anything for him. Lewis is very likely to have the option exercised to give him playing time since he's coming off a serious injury and didn't play at all in spring training. But once Polanco's rehab assignment is up, he's back on the MLB roster absent a relapse that puts him on the IL again.
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