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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think the MLBPA has been the single most effective union in sports for well over 50 years. They make the others in the "Big 4" look small and mediocre at best, pathetic at worst. And I'm always going to side with Labor over Management, especially when the owners are billionaires who have tried every shady trick in the book, even if "labor" in this case is a place where millionaires abound. But I do think they have some challenges that they haven't really tackled. the old veteran middle class isn't where it used to be, and there's an increasing divide between the stars under big contracts and everybody else. bringing in the minor leaguers was absolutely the right thing to do, but there's a lot of work that still needs to be done there to keep some of those guys from barely surviving and it's going to cost money. They've assumed that having a huge gap between the haves and the have nots wouldn't have any real impacts on contracts, and arguably that's no longer the case. Having no salary cap and no real revenue sharing is great when the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Mets would spend like there's no tomorrow and make crazy contracts, but that list has narrowed a lot (notice what the Cubs and Red Sox payrolls are?) and the implosion of RSNs is a real revenue risk to baseball. Contracts have gotten shorter. Clark has been wobbly as a union president; his job in this role isn't really to negotiate the CBA, it's to build and manage a core negotiations committee that represents all player interests, hire smart labor lawyers/negotiators, keep all the team reps informed, and be the public face of the union. He's had some misses on the first, and slipped on the last with some unwise public comments. And when you miss on those, the middle two start coming into question.
  2. jmlease1
    I think you're right about Jax & Stewart's roles, which would make sense for both of them from a performance and health standpoint. I'm assuming you're talking about Alcala being healthy and throwing hard? I'm still a big fan of his, and if he can throw the changeup effectively enough to not get killed by LH hitters, he'll do well because he's death against righties. Stewart, Jax, Okert, Jackson, and Alcala is still the foundation of a solid bullpen and should be able to hold things down until Duran & Thielbar are back. (It's going to be interesting to see how long it takes Duran; there are people on this board stating with certainty that he isn't going to pitch until June...)
  3. jmlease1
    Jax's conversion to the bullpen has worked out pretty well. I think he's still get deployed more in the fireman role (facing heart of the order groups in the 7-9th inning) rather than be used as a 90's-style "closer" (designated 9th inning guy), at least I hope so. He's really good, and I'm glad to see him succeed. It's impressive that his sweeper and 4-seamer are both still so effective against LH hitters, and if he can tighten up that change to torment LH hitters, he's going to have a monster year as a reliever who can be deployed against basically anyone.
  4. jmlease1
    keep in mind that as a terrible team they don't exactly have a lot of need to have a old reliever. He's almost certainly better right now than some of the guys they kept, but isn't going to be part of their plans for the future. The roster spot was probably more valuable to them than the performance, since they're not trying to win at all. My only fear with a move like this is that they might keep the veteran with limited upside after guys get healthy over the younger player with better performance just to keep the asset rather than have the best 8 guys in the 'pen. But it probably won't come to that and if he can still get guys out (and he did fine last season) it's a fairly low-risk move that could help, probably won't hurt.
  5. jmlease1
    Our lineup can hit from 1-9 with no black holes with the projected starters, and quality/superior defenders at multiple positions. We have a quality bench with players that could start for other clubs. We have AAA depth in Lee, Martin, Camargo, Miranda, and Larnach. We have the ability to PH & PR players without disrupting our defensive alignments. That's depth. Your comments on Lee don't match up at all with this board: most people here think he is ready, and you've had people suggesting all off-season ideas like moving Lewis to the OF or Julien to 1B to get him in the lineup. He's a top 25 global prospect, and having a guy like that in AAA is a huge benefit to the depth. If your expectation to have superior depth is having 2 guys like Lee at every position, then I don't know what to tell you.
  6. jmlease1
    I would argue that our depth is superior to most teams, it's just that we also have more key players with injury history issues than most as well. I love our infield depth. It's really impressive. we're in better shape than most teams at catcher with 2 options that would start for many teams (in part because people will assume Vazquez will rebound) and a prospect that looks ready for backup innings in AAA. We've got backups in place that can hold the fort immediately, and good PR/PH options.
  7. jmlease1
    There's only two LHP in the bullpen with this projection: Okert and Funderburk. The rest are all RHP. Team looks pretty good to me: while the injury to Duran is a real bummer (he's just not replaceable, even if we still have some good depth in the bullpen) and I was hoping we wouldn't have to dip into our starting pitching depth before opening day, otherwise things are looking pretty solid. The lineup is healthy to kick off the year and there's a lot of depth there too. Most of the "worries" are guys that have struggling in spring training and you never know if those numbers are meaningful at all, so I'm not going to be too concerned until someone has a rotten April. My biggest concerns right now are: how will our relievers hold up throwing more than 1 inning at times, will the team over-use Santana because of his good glove even if he's not hitting RHP worth a damn, how will Paddack look back as a starter, and can Buxton, Lewis, Correa stay healthy. None of these are disaster-level (at least not now) so I feel pretty good about this team's chances to win the division.
  8. jmlease1
    "One of these things is not like the others..." Overrated Eovaldi had a good season last year, but he's nowhere near the class of Scherzer or DeGrom. not with that career ERA+ of 103. He's also 34 with an extensive history of injuries (not performances), with literally one great season. He's like half the pitcher Sonny Gray has been over their respective careers and no one is putting Sonny in the same category as Scherzer or DeGrom either. I would be at least as concerned about Eovaldi as I am about Paddack; at least Paddack is 6 years younger...
  9. jmlease1
    Yep, they'd all save everyone a lot of time and trouble if they just went out and shot themselves.
  10. jmlease1
    Look, you can look worst-case scenario, expect failure and disaster, or not. But tell me, how many teams in MLB aren't at major risk if 2 of their best starters go down for extended periods of time/the season? (how does the Yankees rotation look right now? How concerning is it for the Red Sox that their big pitching acquisition is done for the year?) The idea that you should realistically have 5 starters with no injury history, under the age of 30, with at least one ace and 1-2 more pitchers with high ceilings, no one a retread or trying to come back from a significant injury, along with 3 guys ready in AAA (2 young high-value prospects with high ceilings who have already at least had a cup of coffee in MLB and shown they can get guys out at this level and 1 veteran who signed with you because the rest of the league was too stupid to give them the MLB contract they deserved), etc just isn't how it works. Twins (like most teams, but especially mid-to-small market ones) have assumed some risks with this club. One of them is in the rotation, where they are counting on a rehab effort (Paddack) and 3 guys with relatively thin resumes (Ober, Ryan, Varland) to carry them alongside their ace, and with reasonably good health (being challenged with DeSclafani going down and very possibly out). They seem to believe that Festa and SWR will be ready to take on MLB hitters if needed.
  11. jmlease1
    I think the "trust" issue on Ober & Ryan is a little overblown. Ober got that call and didn't pitch that great so he got pulled to hopefully keep the game within reach with a fully-loaded bullpen. Ryan was pitching in an elimination game, so why not throw everything you have at it, especially with Pablo Lopez ready to go for game 4? (unfortunately, the offense didn't show in game 4) There weren't exactly a ton of opportunities for either in the playoffs. I'm a little concerned about the depth, because having DeSclafani pull a Mahle isn't great. but Varland deserves to start. I've always been a little higher on SWR than others, so I still feel like there's some depth to draw on later in the season, and it's kind of nice to have all 5 starters be on the good side of 30 for once. I wouldn't expect this rotation to be as strong as last season's, but it's hardly a trash fire. I like what we have in there better than any season in the last 5 years excepting 2023. I mean, in 2020 we were still relying on Randy Dobnak & the corpse of Rich Hill. 2021 had Matt Shoemaker, JA Happ, and Griffin Jax getting 44 effin' starts. 2022 we were trying to plug the holes with Dylan Bundy & Chris Archer. I'd certainly rather have Varland & Paddack be my last 2 guys in the rotation than any of those guys.
  12. jmlease1
    It's not really an issue if you have less power at 1B if you're generating it in other areas, so long as you're not just handing out tons of ABs to players that are poor offensive contributors as a whole. If Correa is back to his usual self, with Buxton and Jeffers also generating real power production then it doesn't matter as much if 1B isn't at league average SLG, so long as you're getting other contributions. It'll be interesting to see if Santana can SLG .400 or better this season; if he does I think we'll be just fine with our production from 1B between him and Kirilloff and maybe a little of Julien or possibly Farmer. If he's hovering around the Mendoza Line for his BA and SLG closer to .350 then his overall production isn't going to be good enough for him to be getting starting playing time. I do think this is a really deep lineup with a lot of players who have high ceilings and not too many low floors. They should score a lot of runs, and there's better balance this year than last, presuming average levels of health.
  13. jmlease1
    I hope Castro keeps improving, that would be a terrific result for the Twins. Not sure if he will, but he does seem to be finding an approach that works for him and how he can be effective at the plate. The baserunning has been really good, and paired with his defensive flexibility it makes him a real weapon. The fact that you can use Castro as a PH or PR later in a game and not have to make a significant shuffle (or any change at all!) to your defensive alignment and keep quality defenders in place is pretty impactful. the 1 for 1 substitution gives you more weapons to deploy as needed, and Castro's ability to slot in at 6 positions is one of the things i love about having him on the bench. He's going to get playing time. It's interesting to look back at his time in Detroit and wonder what happened there. Castro had been a successful base-stealer in Cleveland's system, but once he got to Detroit that part of his game basically vanished. I don't think it turned back on last season simply because of larger bases and fewer pickoffs.
  14. jmlease1
    Santana works counts and gets on base, which makes him a reasonable choice to lead off when Julien isn't in the lineup. When Julien is playing, I would expect him to lead off as he gets on base a ton and has shown an affinity for steals in the minors that will likely be deployed more this season.
  15. jmlease1
    I think the idea of Lorenzen makes more sense if you actually know that DeSclafani is going to have surgery and be out for the year (or be out at least until the all-star break or something). Right now, it's speculation. It's not unfounded, but fans going "it's a forearm strain! that means TJ, he's done for the year." doesn't mean it's reality. Seems unlikely that the Twins would try and make this move without knowing more about where DeSclafani actually is, instead of guessing, which is the scenario we currently have. It's not ideal to jump on the depth immediately, but Varland is more than capable of taking the ball to start the season. is the AAA depth good enough to withstand another injury to the rotation early in the year? A little more questionable; I think everyone would be happier if Festa and SWR could get in a month or more of starts in AAA first. but unless we know DeSclafani is for sure out for months (or the year), I don't seem them trying to buy more insurance with Lorenzen.
  16. jmlease1
    did I miss the announcement that DeSclafani is out for the year? I mean, maybe he will be, but until they actually slate him for surgery...
  17. jmlease1
    I'm not worried about Duran or Thielbar at this point; while Duran is a big loss because he's so dominant and oblique injuries can linger, the bullpen is deep enough to handle it. (come on down, Jose Alcala!) We have a lefty ready to go with Okert and a second that looks ready to step up in Funderburk. Desclafani is definitely a bit disheartening, even if was expected he wouldn't be ready to go on Opening Day because this seems to be a bit more serious than a guy just working his way back from injury. While I don't expect to see any major drop off with varland taking his innings, I do have concerns about the rotation depth when delving into it so early. That said, with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland at least we're not counting on a bunch of guys in their mid-to-late 30's? (on the other hand, Ober & Paddack have both had real injury troubles, and Ryan and Lopez haven't been entirely immune in their careers either....) not worried about Buxton being scratched at this point; it's a spring training game and they're going to be extra cautious with him, just in case. I'd bet all the money in my pockets against all the money in yours that if it had been an actual game he would have played and never hit the injury report. no disasters yet...let's hope none of the starters go down early.
  18. jmlease1
    you did suggest that Graterol was elite, though, and that's a little more questionable. He's had one elite season (2023), but there were some underlying numbers that should make you wonder whether he might have been a little lucky in there. And beyond that, we've seen many times that relievers can have an outstanding season of results and follow it up with a season where they're just another guy. I'd want him to prove it over more than one season, which Duran has done. Graterol is a certainly a good reliever, but not yet in Duran's class.
  19. jmlease1
    I mean, even with the big injury to Maeda, he still threw 50 more innings for the Twins than Graterol has for the Dodgers. The Twins really really needed the starter at that point, and as it's harder to and more expensive to find and keep starters...I'm still fine with this trade for the Twins, regardless of anything Raley might end up doing.
  20. jmlease1
    sure, but let's not pretend he was an all-star caliber player. He's a very streaky hitter on a terrible team that needed to be represented on the squad. Yes, he can crush fastballs...but is he going to see any if it matters? There's a reason he was pretty bad with RISP, and better with the bases open then with anyone on. He's a starter on a bad team. I have more faith in Kepler this season than I do Rooker. again, much like with Raley: it's nice for these guys that they had successful seasons. It doesn't mean that the teams that let them go were necessarily all that wrong about them. Wallner is younger and was as productive last season as Rooker was in about half the PT, and Wallner is substantially better defensively. And it made sense that SD didn't see him as passing their guys either. (A bit more surprising that he never got much of a chance in KC, because they stunk in 2022) Same with Raley: a not particularly good defender who had a hot first half in his age 28 season. There's a reason TB dealt him for a good defensive 2B, and he's going to be fighting for a job as a utility/4th OF now with Seattle. how much more upside is in Rooker or Raley? How likely is it that they're going to be back in the sub/replacement player range again soon?
  21. jmlease1
    I think when you start looking at 3rd order impacts to evaluate a trade you're going down a rabbit hole with no end. It doesn't matter than Luke Raley had a good 2023 for TB or Beeter is a potential rotation guy for the Yankees: they're neither of those things for the Dodgers, and it's not like Raley or Beeter was immediately turned into something. (BTW, good luck on Beeter being a real choice for the yankees; dude might hunt Ks in the minors, but a 4.9 BB/9 for a guy who wasn't exactly unhittable in AAA isn't likely to do more than make some spot starts, get killed and sent back to the minors.) Twins took a chance on Maeda staying healthy and while it didn't work out for them, the trade has still been good and the kind of deal I would still make. Starters are harder to find than relievers, and even with Maeda missing an entire season, he still threw 50 more innings for the Twins than Graterol has done for the Dodgers. yes, Graterol had an excellent season in 2023, but it's far and away his best season as a pro and from what we know about relievers and some of his underlying numbers...is it really likely to be repeated? I agree with the sentiment though that this was a deal where both teams got what they wanted: Twins needed a starter who could throw at the top end of their rotation, Dodgers needed a reliever with upside. Both teams got it. Raley having a good half season (notably, he was much worse in the 2nd half and played a lot less) really doesn't impact this deal. Camargo is the only other player outside of the principals still in either team's system, and if he turns out to be a quality backup MLB catcher...nice work by the Twins front office to grab a guy at a position of need.
  22. jmlease1
    Yep, I was one of the ones who was about ready to DFA Kepler last season. (For me the reason he "deserved" to be saved was they still had Gallo on the roster who was much worse and basically unplayable) I'm thrilled he turned it around last season and had a great second half. Can he do it again? He's a complicated player: he's always produced as a starter; his worst season (2017) he still turned in 1.9 bWAR. He's never really had a terrible season, but he's also never had another offensive season like 2019, nor a defensive one like 2018. He's had some injuries, but you could always count on him to play 70% of the team's games or more. He has (had?) the ability to play a reasonable CF...but didn't want to? (he's better suited to LF than Wallner, but there's really never been any real conversation about moving him there) He's always hit RHP well and had the typical 15+% reduction in OPS against LHP. I'd be nervous about extending him, but I'm still happy to have him for another season. His contract extension worked out just fine...but would another one go as well? I believe in Wallner's ability to make enough contact and his laser arm to make him a very viable RF going forward, so I think it's likely this may be the last hurrah with Kepler who was always decent to good, but never really took that next step that seemed to be happening in 2018-2019. With some of the OF hitting talent coming up through the minors, I think RF is in reasonable shape?
  23. jmlease1
    AK has been below average defensively everywhere he's played and while he was projected to be a quality defender at 1B, so far he hasn't shown it. Now, how much of that is because of his injuries? Hard to know, and there's still time for him to develop into a good defender at 1B, but so far he hasn't been good. I do think locking Kirilloff in at DH is something of a waste, but he's got to find a way to get through a season without the kind of arm/shoulder injuries that have plagued him to date, because it's very obvious in his hitting when he's not right, and it likely harms his ability in the field as well. Miranda has a ways to go. I'm not ready to giver up on him by any means, but it's also sounded like he's not fully recovered from off-season surgery. If he can get it back and get comfortable at 1B he and Kirilloff could be a heck of a platoon for next season.
  24. jmlease1
    I think you're very far out in right field, left field, any field if you think Wallner's going to start the season in AAA. The Twins value MLB results more than spring training showings (justifiably) and Wallner was very good last season. he's not a great OF, but he's not awful either and his biggest asset as a defender (the elite arm) doesn't showcase as much value once guys stop running on him. To put Wallner in context, though: he's played about half as many games as Larnach and accumulated the same amount of bWAR. The power is legit, he's not afraid to get hit if a pitcher tries to go inside on him, and he doesn't start chasing when he's struggling to make contact. A pitcher grooving one on a 3-1 count is flirting with disaster. If Kepler weren't still here, he'd already be making the transition back to RF, where he'll do better once he's gotten used to the vagaries of the MLB RF. I think it's likely that happens next season with one of the young guys trying to seize LF (Martin's range plays well there, E-Rod can certainly handle it, and if Rosario's hit his way into pushing for a MLB job he'll do fine there too) Margot & Castro should fill in fine handling the tougher lefties; we might even see Farmer get a little run out there if needed. LF looks pretty solid going into the year.
  25. jmlease1
    Except that Miranda hits RH and while Santana switch-hits, he's much better against LHP at this point. So it's not really a good platoon fit. I still like Miranda and hope that he can get past the shoulder troubles and be an impact bat. If he does, he could be a nice platoon partner for Kirilloff at 1B next season when Santana moves on, or even in this season if Santana is cooked/gets hurt. But he's not really a fit to platoon with Santana.
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