Jocko87

I still want the hear Farmer working in the outfield in spring training. Probably not much time out there in the short term as the second base platoon but when Lee comes into the picture that flexibility will be nice.

He's this years Donny Barrels. Upgrade!

2.7 WAR last year at first base is not nothing. It's probably 6-7 mil for a good fit.

Ok, Martin is the RH outfielder option then? I like it if for nothing else than the quality at bats from both side of the plate factor.

I'm basically on board with disregarding the RBI as an opportunity stat but I still don't understand why we aren't measuring a success rate in these situations. Regardless of approach, the hitters job is still to get that runner in. I believe it's a skill that can be developed without automatically giving up an out.

I am not a fan of an all or nothing approach. I also don't believe that's what the Twins are trying to do, even though it was the result for most of the season. I'm still quite curious what happened with the players only meetings and Popkins adjustments after which things were much better. The all or nothing approach and strikeouts themselves are indicators, not strategic goals. The Twins have been clear that they are not managing to the number of strikeouts and that is completely correct. The focus is a good at bat and hitting the ball hard when they do swing. If a strikeout is the result of a good at bat, nobody cares. If it's a crappy at bat, which we saw far to much of last year, the strikeout is an expected result. The strikeout isn't necessarily the problem, the bad at bat was the issue. If a good at bat was taken it still advances the offense. Several of the hitters classified as all or nothing are capable of good, long at bats making the pitching work. Julien can swing as hard as he wants during a 10 pitch at bat, the important part is that he has the ability to regularly have good at bats. All or nothing is the wrong term when they are more than happy to walk. The route to postseason success is making really good pitchers work really, really hard, even if they are getting outs. Offenses score runs by keeping pitchers under stress. A well timed bunt can do that but not like a leadoff double. This lineup can be very potent in the postseason as they have enough hitters capable of good at bats in 9 spots. They just have to take that next step.

I wouldn't touch any of last year's Pale Hosers for anything, including Cease. Something that toxic is too risky to bring into your locker room. It's so hard to know who were the bad apples it's better to stay away. Even the good apples are tainted.

Would make the trade return that much better.

I'll remind everyone that our AA affiliate has a "Garbage Gremlin" that leads a parade of children with garbage bags through the stadium in the 8th inning. Picking up trash is fun! Of course, the Twins inherited that fine tradition but good ideas flow both up and down.

I'll never forget when he came up from single A for that emergency stretch and didn't bat an eye. There were discussions back then that he was a middling prospect so starting his clock wouldn't matter but obviously the club knew something about him that he could handle it and not implode. He acted old for his age. It was a bit of a sign of things to come. Never worried, always taking good at bats, doing everything asked and more. Glad he got to win in the postseason here. Should be a Twins hall of famer as soon as he's retired. It also raises questions about who of the current youngsters should get a similar deal but the thing to remember is that the makeup of the person is almost as important as the baseball talent at those ages for extentions. The Brewers have to love Churio's maturity as much as his talent. Polo and Kepler were both good examples of the right kind of guys to extend.

Winky? Winky-poo? Locker rooms are tough, good thing he's huge. If he's in the show in two years he'll be able to chose his own nickname, not many get to do that. Brando, darklord of dingers. Really though, we should be thinking combo names with Jenkins. Shake and bake!

And listening to Merrifield on the players week MLB Radio he has a high opinion of his worth, he was an all star last year, after all. He's still a good player but we already have him in Farmer, Castro, Martin et Al. He's going to be too expensive to fit this roster. Solid player though. Not only does Soler have a World Series ring, he has a ton of postseason experience and has absolutely raked in those chances, 1.021 OPS in 87 PA, 1.214 OPS in World Series games. Apparently he has a slow heartbeat. He's bounced around but been a key contributor for three different teams in the postseason, does he bounce around because no one wants to keep him or is he a catalyst for the success? I like a two year deal with a team option. I'd like to think there was 16m available.

Agreed, I've argued a few times the AK gets quite a bit more runway than most of the guys. If he's right, he's the top lefty in the lineup for years. The key to all this is the team knows when he was hurt or not and how much that plays into his performance, we don't know nearly as much. Hence they know the healthy upside. When he was dropped from the postseason roster the injury was a surprise to most, to the point of minor questions about roster manipulation. Turns out, he had been hurt for a while. I do think he is a trade candidate though, depending on what they know about his healthy upside. They are willing to take the time to try get a player fully healthy and have been patient for quite a while already. I could see him being a very valuable chip at the deadline if he has a healthy first half. Personally I'd like him to stick at first and let Julien work a little outfield. I wouldn't expect great defense but if we are looking at a Soler types in FA he can play defense at that level. Lewis and Lee are not candidates for the outfield at all.

Me too, I initially thought he was a throw in but it does seem like much more than that. Falvey's move is trading for pitchers he thinks are projectable so it would make sense Bowen was more of a target than Disco. Also love the athleticism component, it should speak to an ability to adjust quickly. He's already been bouncing back and forth from starter to reliever so maybe just forgo the third pitch and make him an elite reliever prospect. Options are nice.

I think this is where I'm at too. I'm listening to Whit Merrifield on the MLB Radio and it occurred to me that he would be a good fit. Not enough bat for me but honestly he's probably the type of guys we should be prepared for. I'd rather let Miranda and Martin try to fill that production if that's the level we are playing at. Soler is probably the bat I'd be interested in, I can hold my nose for 50 starts in left if he mashes.

I see what I was reading wrong on the 10m but I don't think it changes my point. Other than the first year Churio is banking much more cash throughout the deal. The money is still guaranteed and that is what represents the investment. I would think with the higher guarantee more years would be a part of it. To me the money is the driver and the years just fall into place. I don't see a meaningful difference between arb and prep arb years other than the player aiming for an age to hit free agency again.

Keith makes 2.5m salary this year while Churio will make 10m. I was told there would be no math but I would think that's where most of the guaranteed money comes from, year by year. There is no comparison of these two contracts, Churio is in another orbit. Lee is somewhere in between the two, about halfway by my estimation.

Gotcha on the Albies/Bregman, that's a different topic for a different thread. You are mixing guaranteed and max money, Churio has two club options at 25m bringing the max total to 10/132m. Keith max is 9/82m. Guarantee of 82m vs 28.6m. The number of years doesn't set the guarantee, Churio is 10m a year while Keith only gets to 5m per in the last two years. Churio certainly set a market, and it's not one that Keith or Lee are playing in. Keith is 6/28.6m, basically the same as Evan White a few years earlier. No idea what the Mariners were thinking but he was a decent prospect, albeit a first baseman. That Keith was willing to sign for Evan White money tells me something. He jumped at the bottom of the market. Lee's agent doesn't return your calls for Colt Keith money.

Churio is 82m guaranteed, Keith 82m max. Albies played parts of two years in the bigs before his deal. Different galaxies. The Tigers set the bottom of the market. Is your non-number to be interpreted as the same value as Keith? Or less? Evan White got 24m, Luis Robert got 50m. Where on that range is Lee, inflation adjusted, of course? As comfortable as you are spending money I would have thought you had a number in mind.

I think there is really only room for one additional player for the full time 26 man. My vote is a RH thumper who can function in both the corner outfield and first base. There aren't many of those out there. Solano doesn't quite do it for me, MAT might be interesting in the role he was intended for last year but I think the bat is more important.

Most minor league "results" are filtered and distilled into something we hardly recognize. It's only a small part of a deal like this. Whats your number? What's everyone's number? I saw 9/90 which probably doesn't get it done as a total package. Keith total max is 8/82ish. The guaranteed money is the only thing that matters so I say if Keith is 28.6m Brooks Lee is 55m with options to 100m. If they wait, Alex Bregman becomes the contract comp. Nice things are expensive.

You are correct that they will likely get a nice late add but you are probably shopping in the wrong aisle. Old friends MAT, Donnie Barrels or CJ Cron are far more likely than any listed.

I would argue he's done equal or less in pro ball than Brooks considering the time served. 100 games isn't a lot when Lee has 3 years of college to compare and is less than 200 days older. Lee has a much larger body of work, better pedigree and done nothing to hurt his stock. In these type deals, pedigree matters more than results. Minor league results are a crapshoot anyway. There is a huge difference between knowing Lee is coming vs thinking Kieth should be pretty good. Their prospect rankings only converged this year after Kieth finally sniffed top 100 (98, in one place) last year. It may not be double, but it's a lot more.

The whole point is to get an agreement before he proves anything, hence the discount. I'd be all for it but the numbers would be double what Keith got, approximately. Their profiles are completely different, pedigree is the main factor here. Lee is closer to what Churio got. I'd still be for it.

Had you told me last week they would get $8m plus 4 players for Polo I would have signed up immediately, no names needed. It's a robbery. It does not matter that the impact for this year is less than we would like, that was never available for standalone Polo. I really just came in the comments to address the stray that Farmer got in the article. Farmer is a more important player to this roster than Polo, period. And I love Polo. I may also be taking the mantle of #1 Farmer defender here but I've been saying for months he is the most important guy for them to bring back given the flexibility and fit that Polo just can't give. An unforced error? You may mean Nick Gordon. I appreciate hearing from John the fan on this piece, maybe next week we can hear from John the analyst.