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Jocko87

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Everything posted by Jocko87

  1. Jocko87
    I clicked on this article expecting some statistical analysis and comparisons to see maybe how far off he was. Oops. I knew better. William is completely correct here. No hitter is close. No pitcher is an obvious choice and we can’t use full staff rankings to make a case for an individual honor. There are several pitchers who are performing very well but the reality is that success of the staff is driven by solid performances across the board rather than a few standouts. This team doesn’t really have an all star on the roster this year. It is very similar to the Coomer days but with a first place team it should be a wake up call to everyone. The performance sucks and the league doesn’t respect them. Just like the Coomer days. The difference is the talent is there.
  2. Jocko87
    The crazy thing about baseball is that energy comes after results, not usually the other way around. In a long season the rah rah only goes so far. We saw a good example with the Braves. They have energy and attitude but it has been built over a long period of good at bats and good offense. You can't rah rah yourselves into good at bats.
  3. Jocko87
    Getting one in Atlanta would have truly been stealing a game.
  4. Jocko87
    Tumba Vacas loosely translates to cow tipping. Quite the creative marketing department.
  5. Jocko87
    Do you have good list of who is repping who? I’m not finding much and agents may determine the whole top 5.
  6. Jocko87
    Also, the Braves are a really good team on a heck of a heater. Compare the number below to what they did against the Twins. Maybe we shouldn’t be commenting hourly about a game of weeks and months. This team has fight and plays with the big boys, without their best stuff. Had 3-3 or 2-4 been on the table prior to these two series I probably would have taken it. It’s holding serve, gotta get the bats going but so much laughable overreaction gets old.
  7. Jocko87
    That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen. Sweet hat though, don’t tell a real back story.
  8. Jocko87
    I live in Wichita, come on down. All together 13 years and I still don't know what a turbu tub is.
  9. Jocko87
    This would be great for the Twins. I hate the idea of a catcher in the top 5 that isn't a Mauer or Adley. Then we need a couple someones to fall in love with a high schooler and then there's options at #5. There isn't a Kumar Rocker but there is a wildcard somewhere. Hard to see Clark falling that far without a few consensus high risers though. At 10 does he even sign? I generally scoff at a couple hundred thousand making a difference in the top ten but that's at least two million.
  10. Jocko87
    Brent Rooker is on pace for 25.37 homers. A's on pace for 41 wins. At roughly the halfway point the grind is setting in. Also a situation is developing in KC. We are monitoring and will update as warranted.
  11. Jocko87
    24th annual with my buddies is the most important part of the article. Good for you guys! Thanks for the detailed report, can't wait to see them in Wichita. Hit me up when Wichita comes up in the rotation!
  12. Jocko87
    Also no, but in italics. I'm all for stocking up on shortstops but start that in the 2nd round. He's not a top 5 type in any ranking I've seen. I'd rather take a swing at Dollander if they are taking a diversion. This pick is for a cornerstone player.
  13. Jocko87
    I think this is a very important note. A coach can't turn a bad player into an all star generally but they can ruin a star. A bad game plan when the margins are milliseconds is everything. Too much data would play right into that, by the time a hitter gets to the plate he can't be thinking about 13 things. A good coach can simplify the message into actionable steps. Overthinking at the plate is a recipe for disaster.
  14. Jocko87
    There are ways to tacitly admit Popkins isn't getting it done without throwing him overboard or making a big scene. It's also dumb to fire someone who is 33 and had enough promise to get the job in the first place at such a young age. Honestly it should be expected that he has some adjustments to make as he figures out what the heck hes doing in this job. This is where Molly comes in. Throw him a million bucks for the rest of the year as a special assistant/bench coach and assign him to Popkins. Popkins remains hitting coach but Molly coaches Popkins (and a sounding board for Rocco). Molly gets a nice paycheck and back around the game but not full time. He might like it, and the wall was broken in spring training. It feels like Popkins is the darling because of his technical hitting knowledge but probably lacks the art and feel. Engineer vs artist mindset, Molly can fill that in without butting up against Rocco. It also fills a gap I believe they have had in the coaching staff since Derek Shelton left. Who's representing the old school in these meetings? There has to be a voice to simplify things when the data boys get out over their skis. To much data on the brain could really screw up a hitters approach.
  15. Jocko87
    And this is the key. Analytics is not about simply having data, it’s knowing which data to use in a given situation. The OP listed a few good sources of other data points that a manager would use to know which stat cast inputs to apply. As a manager in business gets more senior this is the skill that is most valuable for success. Seeing the field and knowing what is important is everything. With our team, the hitters seem to be focused on the wrong thing and we see what happens. I like the old school examples in the article. Here’s one I like to use. “Pitching defense and the 3-run home run.” Isn’t very different from what all the modern analytics tell us. That was in the 60s. It was just derived from different data sources. Get guys on base and get a big hit has been the core of baseball since the beginning but the moneyball era acts like they discovered it. It’s just been different presentations of the same thing for 100 years. Sometimes I think Rocco forgets that. Yes, the data is better and it can better inform the decisions but it should not override what your eye and experience see and know, it just informs it.
  16. Jocko87
    Ummm, good work Ortega and Headrick.
  17. Jocko87
    This is certainly a gap they need to close while they still can. For a relatively small cost they can sign some higher level prospects than the draft. This is one of those areas where a few hundred thousand dollars can go a long way. Get college hitters in the draft and focus more on signing international pitching prospects.
  18. Jocko87
    Rooker as well but the point is more that this FO had them for several years and parted with them. What they did with each for development is a much finer hair than I'm trying to split.
  19. Jocko87
    I'm going to have to be the what's your sources guy here. I've never seen anything like what you are describing reported and would be happy to read it if it was available. An interview, a rumor from a good source? Probably just extrapolation of internet blather if I had to guess. Seriously, is there any reporting out there about how the organization is structured and who does what? So many assumptions presented as fact. I cited a source and a specific concern.
  20. Jocko87
    Yeah, probably better stated as good hitting prospects that are nice trade chips. Steer, CES, Arraez, Rooker, Garver, Wade etc count too. Its a lot of hitters who can play in the big leagues coming through the system.
  21. Jocko87
    Bauer was 21, Carasco 22 and Kluber and Clevanger were 24 when they were acquired. Names like Jake Westbrook, Shin Sue Choo and Cliff Lee were going the other way so its not like they didn't pay heavily. It just feels like the Twins are paying more with the error of recency. Forgot to attach the file with my other post, here is the data. Falvey Cle.xlsx
  22. Jocko87
    I've looked this a few times informally but just pulled a full list and categorized it. Being generous with the Flavey years in Cle by including the 2007 intern years through 2016, only 13 of 30 pitchers acquired in that period with more than 100 ML innings were drafted or international free agents. Of the group, only 245 of the 647 ML wins and 40% of the innings were from those "homegrown" players. I had to filter by Major League service dates so there may still be some draftees coming. They did very well in the 2015 and 2016 drafts with Bieber, Civale, Mackenzie but its more of the outlier than their norm. If anything Falvey pulled them more towards the draft than they were previously. I ran the filters on 2007-2016 ML debut and it came out with 31% of the innings. The Cleveland pitching pipeline was built on smart prospect trades, not the draft or international free agency. It looks like a similar trend in Minnesota. They have a pretty good ability to draft and develop hitters so don't be surprised to see more of your favorite young hitters going away.
  23. Jocko87
    It a fun exercise to look at the pitchers in the Cleveland system that tormented us during their Falvey era. As Twins fans we saw them pull arm after arm out of the minors and the natural assumption was they were just nailing draft after draft. They weren't. Almost every frontline starter they had prior to Bieber and MacKenzie were traded for and developed. It's really stunning to go through the names. Falvey has mentioned this in interviews as they are doing the same thing here. We are starting to see some of the fruits. It needs to keep going but is looking good. Twins fans have been conditioned over many years of draft and wait that draft equals homegrown. We need to adjust thinking on that, prospects move around all the time and homegrown should mean not a free agent signing. Everytime this discussion comes up I think about what the Cardinals gave for Marcel Ozuna. Pitching prospects move all the time and that's Falveys wheelhouse.
  24. Jocko87
    I got some flack for this post from the FO admitting mistakes post in May but the part about letting pitchers dictating at bats really stuck with me. It’s basically what Lewis is saying here, that approach can work in situations but by definition you are letting the pitcher have control. Good strategy against a nibbler but horrible if that nibbler is dotting corners. On the Gleeman and the Geek show today Aaron said Rocco isn’t even in most of the hitter meetings. It was presented like, no reason for him to be there. I would agree, unless it’s the thing holding the organization back, then get your butt in that meeting and help fix it. I would give some grace if it was a pitcher meeting but I’d still expect him involved if it was this big of an issue. Yes, you have people assigned to do this stuff but they work for you and you work for them. If they are struggling you are struggling and as a leader it’s ultimately on you to fix it.
  25. Jocko87
    I can’t imagine him signing with a team who’s strength is starting pitching if that was his goal. How far down the depth chart would it have to go? His role in the org has to be covering AAA innings. I don’t think the return would be high either but if you can get a rookie ball lottery ticket it’s worth the contract and goodwill with Boras.
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