Jocko87

Brent Rooker is on pace for 32.4 homers. A's on pace for 29.45 wins. The gap is closing and getting more depressing as the Rooker train loses steam.

But what are the roster limitations? Nothing that playing to their capabilities wouldn't overcome. At least 60% of this roster is playing like crap, 30-40% under ability. Normalize that a bit and everyone here is delighted. They can comfortably put forth a starting 9 of nothing but highly touted 1st and 2nd round draft picks. This website is filled with pages upon pages of roster crunch where every choice results in a good player being effected. What we are seeing is a coaching and leadership problem. Preparation and approach are abysmal. Don't let the coaches off the hook even a little bit right now. There isn't much more we could have asked for from the front office this offseason and certainly nothing that would address what we are seeing now. Our bullpen woes would almost certainly be eased by a functional lineup. We would be nervous for October but the FO will act at the trade deadline. The front office should be looking at this very carefully as they can't pull many levers outside of the coaching staff starting with Rocco. I will say I'm seeing a bit more outward frustration, open coaching today with Julien was good to see. I do believe they like to do most things behind closed doors but sometimes a public callout can be helpful. A mild public callout of Correa would send shockwaves through the clubhouse. Rocco probably needs to put that demon to bed, the backup GM talk is tough for a leader to overcome. As motioned, he is rarely pointed so he has an opportunity to use a pointed moment to great effect. I wouldn't be surprised if they could work that out between themselves for effect. If I were Rocco I would consider it.

It's no secret I've moved a bunch over the years and have frankly, become quite proficient at paring my belongings down to that what really matters. The most recent of these moves was a lengthy one over the summer of 2022 from Sherman, IL to Goddard, KS. Work obligations and a dynamic housing market led me to continue working in Illinois for 4 additional months after selling and buying a new house. I'm just now really starting earnest work on setting up the shop and garage. This background is only to help visualize how serious the following is. I generally know what I have and I know where it is. It's just a thing for me. For the past several months I have been unable to find my TC logo front license plate. I've looked several times with a purpose to find this one thing. It has been very frustrating. It was not on the truck in Illinois as a front plate required state but was featured in a prominent place on the license plate wall in the garage (again, I've moved a lot). I'm happy to report that as of Friday, May 26th, the lost is found and restored to its rightful place on the front of the truck. It was on top of some garage cabinets, in that sunken area where spiders go to die. This may not seem like a big deal but when I consider the timeline for the missing woobie things start to come together for me. The movers packed it away on June 8th, 2022. On June 8th, 2022 the Twins beat the hated Yankees 8-1 at Target field to move to 33-25, 4.0 games clear in first place. Chris Archer!! was the starting pitcher that day. Ten days later the Twins were tied for first as the season started to unravel. June 10th was the unpacking day at the new house. On this day, it was announced Royce Lewis did not, in fact, have a bone bruise in his sore knee but rather a partial tear of the repaired ACL. Twins territory wept. Many pages have been written about the rest of the season so I will not expand upon that here but I will say that in spite of some amazing offseason good fortune and good front office work something is missing. As the OP states, there have been nothing in the way of ephemeral sparks that could start this massively talented engine. Let's face it, the team is in first place by default and I would argue, all the time in first place since, oh say June 8th last year has been default only. I took a break from garage cleaning to watch the game yesterday. I was struck by the contrast in quality of at-bats from the start and even posted to that effect in the game thread. The quality of at bats continued throughout the game for the most part. When Matt Wallner revealed post game the Jace Tingler may have chewed some ass "rallied" regarding execution, I knew what really happened. There is a non-zero chance that when we write the epilogues of the 2023 season we look to this game and see two lucky home runs that the starting center fielder would almost certainly not have allowed and see a turning point. A home run given by the backup center fielder off his glove, then off the top of the wall after a 3-time gold glove winner had his lower back tighten up could certainly be a spark. Two pitches later an actual home run was deep in the same glove until the top of the same wall collected it into the bullpen. That could also be a spark. This game could very well be written into Twins lore as the turning point of the 2023 season but I'll know better, and now you will too. Call me sabrstitious if you like, but check back with me in a month.

I think mock drafts at this point are fun but without knowing who reps each top 5 player its really hard to figure how it plays out. I would pay a bunch of extra slot money to get Langford over one of the high school lefties and even take a pitcher ahead of them. I have to imagine there are plenty of agent discussions going on right now but without any signings we don't know the Boras effects etc. Signability issues are just around the corner.

How does one achieve 120%? I'll take it as a good sign from the man himself but he is probably comparing it to how he felt over the last 3 years with one leg. True 90% would be good by me.

How the F*** do you know? I have a longer post for this discussion but the first part of it is this. So many people, so comfortable being completely certain about something they know jack all s*** about. So comfortable stating as fact that Rocco does what the FO tells him, has no agency to make decisions. only a patsy for the FO. The reality is that you know nothing of the structure of the organization. Maybe the FO jumps when Rocco says so? Not likely but just as provable as most of the bull **** in this thread. I have thoughts on Rocco and will come back for them but until then, link some hard reporting, put up or shut up. You can't prove your thesis, feel free to retract. This is for more than the quoted post, there are several of you.

Its the most recent movie I've seen. I'm the hippest.

The distinction helps me understand your point but it doesn't change my stance. Rocco is a member of the coaching staff. They also work for him. That makes it his job and responsibility. He should absolutely be involved in breaking down swings and pitch usage. Not every swing but when there's an issue he needs to be involved with both feet. I'm not saying coaches turn Gallo into Arraez as some of the sweeping examples you are using would suggest but there is absolutely a difference in a well coached team vs one who isn't. In civilian parlance, hes the director of operations which is a position that requires technical proficiency. He may be an expert in only one field of his operation but his overall technical proficiency has to be at a level he can function in all areas. In the management field, leader eventually grow to positions where they have less and less technical skill but are still responsible for production in those areas. One of the main jobs is helping your sub reporting managers solve problems. Excluding bullpen catchers there are 12 coaches on the staff including Rocco per MLB.com. He's involved in everything, I don't see how he couldn't. How much time does it take to fill out a lineup card? If you have a reference that states the org operates like you say I will become the biggest advocate for firing everyone involved and burning everything that remains. It will save me a ton of time watching the team because I know its not going to work and the end will be spectacular.

I guess I'm confused then. What would you say Rocco's job is? I listed a few things that are objectively and obviously on the coaching staff and you use a 1 in a million Knoblauch example to say managers don't do anything?

Lee’s oppo home run looks like an effortless flick on video. Was the wind howling out to left?

But the manager can make a huge difference. We are reasonably assuming that Rocco has many of the decision powers pulled away in favor of the computer but we don’t know his mandate in detail. It would make sense based on what we see but it wouldn’t explain most of the issues we have with this team. The data may lead them to swing hard all the time but it certainly doesn’t say take horrific at bats and swing at bad pitches. A manager should fix that. The data may say Griffen Jax has the best stuff+ in the league but it doesn’t tell him to be predictable or tip his pitches. A manager should fix that. The data will say that not bunting leads to more runs but it’s not saying in the bottom of 10, tie game one run wins let’s swing as hard as possible 9 times just in case. A manager should fix that. The data will tell Correa that his approach is great, exit velo, xwoba all great, good things coming but it won’t tell him he pressing, swinging at bad pitches and letting the pitcher dictate the at bat. A manager should fix that. The manager is certainly limited in what they can do but what I’m seeing is a lot of failing in the areas that he absolutely can affect. Most of the lineup or bullpen calls don’t actually directly affect the outcome of a game. We wonder wtf he was thinking pinch hitting for the clean up hitter but was it the reason the game was lost? No. The problems I’m seeing are preparation, approach, in game strategy, in game adjustments, self scouting and leadership. All things the manager has direct control of. Coaches need to coach constantly. I hear him getting more frustrated and we don’t know what he’s actually doing but we see the lack of results. It would be fairly easy to put together a manager wins above expectation. Actual wins against the Vegas composite over/under is pretty straightforward. The front office has assembled a ton of talent. What’s it lacking?

I don’t even think they would get uniforms. It doesn’t matter, flip em again. Every team in the league takes a horrible lopsided deal like that. 4 legit controlled players for a reliever rental? Everyone should take the front office criticisms with a grain of whatever this is. This isn’t fantasy baseball.

Which genius got away?

I mean, for all 4 they would almost have too. Like in under a second. Maybe this thread is the hyperbole trap? Very sneaky!

This feels like a 12 yo first draft Christmas list. None of these players are on the shopping lists and none of these teams are selling. I'm not sure why we would start shopping here when the Chapman from the Royals costs 11 cents.

Its not that its a required course, but the undercurrents are everywhere. Part of what is taught though, is how to address failure. Key to this conversation is none of it has to do with us. There are very few instances of any high performing organization just openly apologizing for anything. Its usually a bad idea because it foments more distrust and suspicion of failures. Its the beginning of the end. I know this from having an MBA, getting the good inside/private fortune 500 training and personal experience. They owe us nothing in the way of an apology or admitting wrong. Customers get apologies when the latte order is wrong, not highly complex multi million dollar and variable business moves. The closest we will get is moving on from Donaldson quickly. The important part of the equation is what happens behind closed doors. While I don't know what happens in the Twins offices, I've been behind several of these closed doors. You better have thick skin and be able to admit errors while standing firm on where you were correct. In well run organizations you can articulate what the boss did wrong as well with no repercussions if delivered correctly. The most important thing, by far, is that it stays behind closed doors. When I have these meetings I say out loud very clearly that we will be honest, say what we need to say including about me, and have it out. When we open this door we are a united front on the plan forward, no exceptions. The Twins are good at the united front, I hope they are having these open discussions behind the scenes. What I do think they do to a failing is relying on too heavily on the data and miss more obvious signs where the numbers aren't matching up with actual results. I think they are slow to act if the data still shows a good trend. This is generally a good trait but makes it very hard to act away from the data at times. Examples are if Jax stuff+ and whatnot looks great but his scouting report is one simple sentence. Pagan has great location+ except that one pitch that he also is tipping. Data can lie, other teams can do things that are effective for them inside your good data etc. I feel like the coaching staff is missing the one old school guy that can point these things out. The underlying data is worthless if the other guys know whats coming. The best thing we can do with the data we have is see them adjust their approaches when things go wrong. It is a stated organizational philosophy not to invest in the bullpen. The haven't, but then spent lots of prospects at the deadline. We will see if they change this going forward as it looks like they may need to. We have seen them adjust their approach many times over their tenure and they do continue to improve in all facets. They've also improved so many parts on the roster the bullpen will be a glaring area where they can upgrade as everything else needs minimal help compared to other years. Times are tough right now but this is objectively the most talented 40 man roster most of us have seen in our fan lifetimes. Now they need to learn to execute.

Tumbled is your word. I said slipped and I think 5-8 slots depending on where you look for someone being called the next Strasburg/Cole is a significant move. He hasn’t been as good as last year but he was damn near perfect in 2022.

Whats the deal with Braden Taylor, moved down 10+ spots but still #2 on Fangraphs board with a 50 FV?

#2 overall in December. Watch the video to hear Mayo gush. Clear top 3 on a tier of their own was Dollander, Crews and Langford. https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-top-100-prospects-list-2023

His appearances have been quite exciting, the opposite of what we are looking for. He had a nice clean inning against the Angels and it was very boring but effective. If he can stay boring he can be a weapon but hes not there yet.

I have a tough time with him slipping as far as he has. OK, Skenes has surged ahead but 4 months ago he was the best prospect since Strasburg? Like Lee last year he could be a bit of the forgotten man in the hype machine. I wouldn't have a problem with taking him either.

Lost in all the lineup discussion, the pitching was excellent overall. Ober had a 4 hitter ouch, which happens occasionally, but responded like an ace. I would have loved to see him go more than 79 pitches but I've posted enough about Rocco. How many times have we watched a Twins game where they jumped on a Verlander for 3 or 4 and nervously watch a bad Tigers offense chip away and then whoops? Verlander recovers, we look anemic and feel lucky if we pull one out. There is no reason to panic after the first.

Listening to his post game comments the 4 run first put the urgency into the moves. Which is odd, because there isn't an urgency to score runs in any other situations. Wouldn't he try to chip away and get a run every chance with small ball? No indication of urgency in extra innings. It feels like the only move he thinks he has is a left right match up.

The purpose of the modern in game manager is to know when to override the chatGPT sabr-autopilot. We did not have that today. I don’t know what it was. Interesting to be sure. I said in the game thread, before I knew about the extension, that if I were Joe Pohlad I’d have to have Derek explain the math to me in detail. What was the plan here? Make him say it out loud. If it still makes sense OK, but I’d bet he couldn’t get halfway through. And please don’t let the Garlick home run be some indication of doing something right. If he had a move he would have made it. Larnach was sick I guess which makes emptying the bench early even odder. I’m usually a bit of a Rocco apologist but I’ve got nothing tonight. True that the subs were the only spark, but they were subbing for the only other guys who’ve been a spark lately. He’s been saying he was going to do something crazy with the lineup to jumpstart it but this ain’t it. This was just crazy.