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Jocko87

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Everything posted by Jocko87

  1. Jocko87
    I'm going to have to be the what's your sources guy here. I've never seen anything like what you are describing reported and would be happy to read it if it was available. An interview, a rumor from a good source? Probably just extrapolation of internet blather if I had to guess. Seriously, is there any reporting out there about how the organization is structured and who does what? So many assumptions presented as fact. I cited a source and a specific concern.
  2. Jocko87
    Yeah, probably better stated as good hitting prospects that are nice trade chips. Steer, CES, Arraez, Rooker, Garver, Wade etc count too. Its a lot of hitters who can play in the big leagues coming through the system.
  3. Jocko87
    Bauer was 21, Carasco 22 and Kluber and Clevanger were 24 when they were acquired. Names like Jake Westbrook, Shin Sue Choo and Cliff Lee were going the other way so its not like they didn't pay heavily. It just feels like the Twins are paying more with the error of recency. Forgot to attach the file with my other post, here is the data. Falvey Cle.xlsx
  4. Jocko87
    I've looked this a few times informally but just pulled a full list and categorized it. Being generous with the Flavey years in Cle by including the 2007 intern years through 2016, only 13 of 30 pitchers acquired in that period with more than 100 ML innings were drafted or international free agents. Of the group, only 245 of the 647 ML wins and 40% of the innings were from those "homegrown" players. I had to filter by Major League service dates so there may still be some draftees coming. They did very well in the 2015 and 2016 drafts with Bieber, Civale, Mackenzie but its more of the outlier than their norm. If anything Falvey pulled them more towards the draft than they were previously. I ran the filters on 2007-2016 ML debut and it came out with 31% of the innings. The Cleveland pitching pipeline was built on smart prospect trades, not the draft or international free agency. It looks like a similar trend in Minnesota. They have a pretty good ability to draft and develop hitters so don't be surprised to see more of your favorite young hitters going away.
  5. Jocko87
    It a fun exercise to look at the pitchers in the Cleveland system that tormented us during their Falvey era. As Twins fans we saw them pull arm after arm out of the minors and the natural assumption was they were just nailing draft after draft. They weren't. Almost every frontline starter they had prior to Bieber and MacKenzie were traded for and developed. It's really stunning to go through the names. Falvey has mentioned this in interviews as they are doing the same thing here. We are starting to see some of the fruits. It needs to keep going but is looking good. Twins fans have been conditioned over many years of draft and wait that draft equals homegrown. We need to adjust thinking on that, prospects move around all the time and homegrown should mean not a free agent signing. Everytime this discussion comes up I think about what the Cardinals gave for Marcel Ozuna. Pitching prospects move all the time and that's Falveys wheelhouse.
  6. Jocko87
    I got some flack for this post from the FO admitting mistakes post in May but the part about letting pitchers dictating at bats really stuck with me. It’s basically what Lewis is saying here, that approach can work in situations but by definition you are letting the pitcher have control. Good strategy against a nibbler but horrible if that nibbler is dotting corners. On the Gleeman and the Geek show today Aaron said Rocco isn’t even in most of the hitter meetings. It was presented like, no reason for him to be there. I would agree, unless it’s the thing holding the organization back, then get your butt in that meeting and help fix it. I would give some grace if it was a pitcher meeting but I’d still expect him involved if it was this big of an issue. Yes, you have people assigned to do this stuff but they work for you and you work for them. If they are struggling you are struggling and as a leader it’s ultimately on you to fix it.
  7. Jocko87
    Seems we have the good Gray tonight.
  8. Jocko87
    I’m listening to them as well. Bit of a cheap shot on Correa and a very quiet correction.
  9. Jocko87
    Perhaps you noticed the evening news crew off the Atlantic seaboard this weekend, Bret and Cindy.
  10. Jocko87
    We’ve gone rouge! No rules! Except all those other rules.
  11. Jocko87
    I can’t imagine him signing with a team who’s strength is starting pitching if that was his goal. How far down the depth chart would it have to go? His role in the org has to be covering AAA innings. I don’t think the return would be high either but if you can get a rookie ball lottery ticket it’s worth the contract and goodwill with Boras.
  12. Jocko87
    While I agree they aren't one player away, they live in the clearance aisle. Thats kinda what has us in this frustration loop. At least Goldy is a proven player with little risk of his arm falling off. I'd flip for Julien for him and bet the Cards move him to 1st base. No chance of that happening so and I don't really see a big move this year. This feels like the year of addition by subtraction. The best trade will be making room for Wallner and adding a reliever.
  13. Jocko87
    I think he's covering innings so others can keep getting the call. The taxi squad has plenty of guys to rotate but missing those innings take a toll on the Saints. They had a position player pitching the other day. If he shows out great, flip him at the deadline. It's also a solid for Boras.
  14. Jocko87
    Whats the hurry? He's not exactly busting the door down.
  15. Jocko87
    Now or at the time of drafting?
  16. Jocko87
    Alex Bregman. Also moved to 3rd for Correa. Although I think Brooks Lee comps better to Bregman as a player type there you go. 5th tool isn't just speed, it's speed and baserunning.
  17. Jocko87
    The proper comparison for Petty is the pick from the Gray QO. Gray is the gravy in this deal. The Twins got the short term value in Gray and also the long term value of another late first round pick but in a slightly longer term. The qualifying offer was certainly a factor in the value paid for Gray. I do not care if Chase Petty is a first ballot hall of famer. This trade is a home run of third deck proportions. They won coming and going. Also, lets not get too over our skies crowning Petty. Long ways to go.
  18. Jocko87
    But if he'd have only gone 5 innings they might have needed those runs. Much like Correa hitting it into the 2nd deck for a .960 xBA these stats are mostly worthless in the moment. Its my belief, albeit just a hunch, that most of these stats default to fitting larger sample sizes before they mean anything. I get that WPA is a PA by PA deal but situationally Brock Stewart was in a much tougher spot. Surprised he wasn't higher in WPA, he saved the game. From the article and I had to double check, the 105.3 mph, 404 ft home run was not a barrel. Because, you know, the definition of a barrel doesn't actually have anything to do with quality of contact. xBA of only .350 because if hit to the deepest part of the park its probably caught. How they don't at least factor 3 sectors of direction into xBA is beyond me. Anyway, off soapbox, its pretty easy to pick at these stats in the moment but with a larger sample size they work pretty well. I would adjust some of the inputs for more accurate outputs but that's me. Also, today I learned that the Twins have an assistant hitting coach. He was ejected, and now we know him. Good to see Kenta feeling good. Brock Stewart, man. Stud delayed.
  19. Jocko87
    Historically, but he was DFA for a reason. Garlick is better now.
  20. Jocko87
    SOooo, about that. I'm all for Julien and Miranda in left field. Just run to the wall and throw it in. Then go hit. It's not optimal but its what we got.
  21. Jocko87
    I mean, how very Minnesota of them. My inner (outer) Norwegian bachelor farmer approves. Ninja'd On topic, the FO made a bet this off season and lost. I get the logic of being sure Wallner, Larnach, AK et al are ready, there was a lot of risk there. I don't hate it, and now its time to move on. Its not a big deal except that he has 15 years in the organization. I don't mind the loyalty either. It could have gone the other way and the FO would be geniuses. Now they will be forced to pickup salary to get a contributor in return and maybe throw in another piece as well to make it happen. No big deal, only money. I don't see a DFA coming, it would fly in the face of everything we think we know about why he is still here. Some GM somewhere, said something like 2 months evaluate, two months to adjust, two months to ride the wave. We are in the second stage.
  22. Jocko87
    Just read the minor league recap where an infielder is pitching in AAA. Most likely that’s all this is about, cover some AAA innings to keep the taxi squad in order and a solid for Boras to get him some real innings. He’d have to look phenomenal to sniff the 40 man but if he does I’d rather flip him. Win win.
  23. Jocko87
    Decent chance the Kuechel thing is more about covering innings at AAA and maybe a trade chip than anything Twins related. Win win for both.
  24. Jocko87
    Let’s start with a day, then gradually work up to two days and eventually a week. If you can do a week, you can do a month. Soon, you’ll be able to join us, in the future times. Back on the topic, sure, pick him up in the no such thing as a bad minor league deal kind of way. Waiver claim, no way. What is better about him than Garlick? Also, IL for kidney stones, yikes. I’ve been hospitalized with a stone but two days after clearing the blockage was normal. Might be a roster helper IL stint.
  25. Jocko87
    I was watching the game tonight half hoping he had to leave shaking his arm. I’m afraid this might be the biggest wish in the thread.
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