Last year prior to the Lopez trade, we had Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober lined up for the rotation, and that seemed pretty good.
In my mind, this year's rotation looks about the same as that, with Lopez stepping into the Gray role of proven good arm. Paddack stepping into the role of Mahle as a guy with great potential but a lot of injury question concerns, Ryan and Ober both occupying the Ryan role with no clear Maeda equivalent, and Varland being a rough equivalent to Ober at this time last year. Guy who could stick but has yet to prove himself.
I'd say next season's rotation looks about the same quality as last season's rotation did at this time a year ago with Lopez looking better than Gray did at that time, Varland looking shakier than Ober did at that time, and one less big injury question mark with Maeda not necessarily in the plans.
I think the front office is definitely going to be shopping around the trade market, and there will probably be a trade.