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Everything posted by LastOnePicked
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Week in Review: Rotation Reinforced
LastOnePicked replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Starting veterans who are maybe only marginally better than rookies just to avoid 100 losses seems like a weird strategy to me. And I'm no team PR rep, but I'm guessing the Twins can sell a few more tickets to fans who want to watch the franchise's future unfold than to watch their past failures moulder away on the mound or field. I do sometimes try to be fair-minded, though, and I know the team has expressed an interest in re-signing Pineda. It's not a terrible idea to try and let him make the case that he's got something left to offer for 22-23. And yesterday, Pineda rose to that challenge. Good for him. Falvey and Levine never call to ask me for my opinion anyway, so go figure.- 14 replies
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- joe ryan
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This is about where I am. Seems like a good guy, and wish him all the best. But also seems very much like the kind of starter a contender doesn't have on their roster. No, the contract won't kill the Twins financially, but it is looking like money that wasn't well spent. That said, I'd much rather watch him get 20-30 starts next year to show what he can do than watch some $4M veteran Happ-hazardly signed for a meaningless year.
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Game Score: Minnesota 5, Cleveland 2
LastOnePicked replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Well, to a starving man, an Oreo cookie seems like a big dessert. This is kind of the Twins fan's lot in life. How excited have we gotten over the years ago a string of fairly decent starts by the likes of Albers, Smeltzer, Blackburn, etc.? Ober might turn out to be the same. Or ... maybe (just this once) ... his progress signals something legitimately promising.- 26 replies
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- jorge polanco
- bailey ober
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Game Score: Minnesota 5, Cleveland 2
LastOnePicked replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Polanco deserves a ton of credit for resilience, persistence and conditioning. His complete turnaround since May gives me a fool's hope that Sano and Kepler can do the same next year.- 26 replies
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- jorge polanco
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Week in Review: Rotation Reinforced
LastOnePicked replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I get your point, but you don't pitch in the rotation on a team headed to 90+ losses solely because you "deserve" it - you get slotted into the rotation because you need to give the FO a chance to evaluate the way you respond to major league hitters and adjust. Prospects, understandably, deserve more slack. But sure, he can take Albers' spot for 5 starts. But so could Strotman. Or Balazovic. Or others. who might need to be a part of the future here.- 14 replies
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- joe ryan
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Week in Review: Rotation Reinforced
LastOnePicked replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For good reason. He's been bad for most of the season, and now he'll be blocking starts by prospects who could actually have a role to play here in the future. I guess the Twins want to see if he has anything left in him that would make him worth signing to a cheap deal for 2022-23. But I don't see the point, unless he's an excellent mentor to the young starters in ways we fans can't see.- 14 replies
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- joe ryan
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Really good post, and a good counterargument. I guess I just don't see any of these happening. I mean, if you couldn't extend Buxton or "fix" Kepler or Sano by now, it just ain't gonna happen. I've accepted that the 2019+ window of contention has closed. Only a massive offseason FA spending spree (for players who have something left in the tank and magically stay healthy) can get this team back to contention. NOTHING in this franchise's history suggests that this is even a remote possibility. We don't overpay, and we hear time and time again that top free agents don't want to be here. So, from my perspective, it's total rebuild time. Again, sadly.
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Game Score: Rays 11, Twins 4
LastOnePicked replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I understand this frustration, but I think eating meaningless innings is the only reason why Albers is with a big league club at this point. I doubt he's upset about it. But I get it. We were division contenders not long ago, and within a year we've become a terrible team again, letting other teams just run up the score on us. I had hoped there was some fight in this team left, but that faded away again after just a few nice weeks. Gonna be a tough final month. -
Perfectly stated. THIS is absolutely the offseason pitching plan I want to see this organization follow through on. And if not, the chorus for their firing should get much, much louder. We Twins fans have seen this for years and years now - it doesn't matter how many prospects you have, or how many starters you sign, if you don't have an organization that can help your hurlers reach peak performance. Some things may change quickly in baseball, but this glaring defect of this organization hasn't changed one bit. That's why you see the likes of Andrew Albers getting shelled out there again today.
- 92 replies
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- bailey ober
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Nope. Saying that isn't magical thinking. But actually putting Dobnak and Pineda into a 2022 rotation and expecting them to repeat past successes is most certainly magical thinking. You saying it is "hope," and that's fine. I like it when Twins fans still have hope. But hope is not a FO strategy for success in baseball.
- 92 replies
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- bailey ober
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I agree. For the first time in years, I'm fine if they sign absolutely nobody. Once Berrios was traded and Maeda lost for 2022, the white flag has been waving over One Twins Way. This FO hasn't shown a keen ability to target and sign effective veteran starters, and those they have signed haven't done very well here. We're again a AAAA team. Time to own it and retool the development and evaluation aspects of this team. No more losing the Ynoas and Gils of the future. No more feeding prospects to the rest of the league. Figure out who you have, what they can do and how they can contribute. Then try to supplement that core in 2023 and beyond. What might make all of this harder for us fans is that Chicago looks to be a force for years to come beyond 2022 (unlike the Twins, they seem to be able to make a splash in trades and free agency), and the Tigers have a superior farm system. The chance for the Twins to end the playoff win drought might be years away at this point. Maybe the playoffs will expand in the next collective bargaining agreement - that would help.
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I'm 100% certain they feel this way - that's why the traded Berrios and actively shopped Buxton and Rodgers before the deadline. For PR reasons, they're not saying this publicly, but even Dan Hayes indicted recently that they're saying it privately. You watch - they will sign 1-2 Happ-like starters over the offseason, tops. As for trades, there are no takers out there for Kepler, Sano or Donaldson. Perhaps they can rebuild trade value by next year's deadline, but that's doubtful, too. Polanco and Arraez are worth keeping for 2023. You don't end a 90+ loss season, return with virtually no starting rotation and no bullpen, and compete with the likes of the White Sox. It's just not going to happen. Even Nick's blueprint for 2022 success includes a great deal of magical thinking about Pineda and Dobnak. But that's okay. Make 2022 a development year. But then go big on Berrios. Get the pieces ready to retake the Central in 2023.
- 92 replies
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- bailey ober
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Game Score: Rays 5, Twins 3
LastOnePicked replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like Dobnak, and I'm glad he's back from injury, but the offseason extension seemed like a very questionable deal at the time ... and seems so much worse since then. Add it to the list of unforced errors by the FO. But we'll see if Dobnak has the fire - and talent - to prove his doubters wrong. -
Go VERY cheap in 2022 - it's going to be a lost year. Then, put that savings towards making a very serious charge to re-sign Berrios when he hits free agency. At least get into a bidding war and drive up his asking price. If nothing else, it sends a message to future Twins aces that the organization values them and sends a message to fans that the front office can swing trades for good prospects AND put up some big-boy money to bring those homegrown stars back from the open market.
- 92 replies
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- bailey ober
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I would like to create a time machine after reading articles like this. Let me go do a little tinkering in the garage, see what I can come up with. If you suddenly find yourself in a reality where the Twins and White Sox are neck-and-neck, you'll know I got it working.
- 24 replies
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"there is a good chance he misses all of the 2022 season, and that might be the season Minnesota needs him the most" - Nah, with almost no starting pitching we can rely on in 2022 besides Ober and possibly Ryan, it's okay to have 2022 without Maeda. We have absolutely no chance to contend next year, so the timing isn't devastating. Gives the organization a chance to season a lot of young arms.
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- kenta maeda
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Game Score: Twins 3, Tigers 2
LastOnePicked replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I have been VERY grumpy about this season, and about the miscues of the FO. But I have to agree with this. It's a lost season, but they are not currently playing like losers (outside of NY). That matters. I don't know if it's Donaldson's impact in the clubhouse, or Rocco's renewed emphasis on fundamentals, or something else. But it's a welcome change, and I hope resilience/grit becomes a team ethos in 2022, despite that they'll likely be rebuilding for a 2024 window of contention. -
Can the Pitching Staff Compete in 2022?
LastOnePicked replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is how small mistakes can snowball for a team like the Twins. If you have a Baddoo and/or a Wade, you can trade for starting pitching depth. Even Kepler had peak value not long ago, but no trade materialized. If you had kept Gil or Ynoa, you'd have lively young arms already emerging to join Ober and Jax. Even if you had even given Lance Lynn another try as a FA when he was available and affordable, you'd have a solid ace to rebuild around. At each step, the FO has made the wrong chess move. And now, a young man many were *hoping* to be a solid #5 starter at best is likely the 2022 Opening Day starter. Good for Ober, I really like him, but it's gonna be tough to watch this all unfold as the rebuilding process stalls. And even tougher if a work stoppage wipes out the 2022 development opportunities for our MiLB starters..- 67 replies
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- kenta maeda
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Let the Learning Commence for Twins Brass
LastOnePicked replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think too much emphasis is being placed on the idea that Twins critics are "cranks" who "hate analytics." Sure, there's a bit of that sentiment floating around, but I'm not even sure that's what Viola is saying here. Every organization has to use every legal tool and resource at their disposal to gain a competitive advantage. Analytical analysis of the game is a huge - and wonderful - part of that. The Twins were very late to that aspect, but appear to be catching up. That's all well and good. But not even the deepest dive into analytics will win a team a championship. There's a reason why the White Sox hired a manager like Tony LaRussa ... and there's a reason why that team is looking like a very strong contender for the postseason. Toughness. Fight. Resilience. Cohesion. Clarity of purpose. Baseball IQ. These intangibles just seem sorely lacking in this team. And when this team faces any real pressure to perform, it shows. We do seem to be leading the league in quality excuses, though, as though only our minor league system faced a pandemic and only our big league squad has been hit by injuries. I don't hate the team for losing ground - that happens. But I don't respect the inability of this club to take hard criticism. And I don't see any signs that any lessons are sinking in.- 45 replies
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- derek falvey
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Let the Learning Commence for Twins Brass
LastOnePicked replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
"For the first time in their tenure, Falvey and Levine fell short." I like my fellow Twins fans, I like Twins Daily and I really respect the writers here, but this is an oft-repeated sentiment I just don't understand. The point of a baseball season is to COMPETE and to WIN. IN. THE. PLAYOFFS. That's the ENTIRE reason why professional sports organizations structure their seasons like they do. Falvey and Levine have fallen short every single year so far. Of course, many teams are going to fall short of that high bar, and there are many joys of a baseball season for watching individual players and performances. But mid-market teams often have to endure long cycles of losing in order to assemble a competitive team that is ready and able to at least do some damage in the playoffs. We've endured the cycles of losing ... but Falvey and Levine, like Ryan before them, have so far failed to bring the second part into fruition. It's okay to have the bar set this high, folks. In fact, it's not even such a high bar. Since 2004, only one other MLB team has won fewer postseason games than the Twins. One. Yes, the two recent Division Championships were nice. If we're honest with ourselves, they were won against very weak competition (2019) and in very odd circumstances (2020). But neither team was at all ready for the playoffs, and Viola's criticism seems pretty resonant - they were not (and are not) a fundamentally sound team and for long stretches they do not appear to play with a competitive attitude. Also, deadline trades that should have bolstered the team's chances never happened, and those smaller trades that did happen were ineffective at best. And now, despite an offseason of signings and preseason predictions of another division title, they are one of the worst teams in baseball, with the second worst pitching staff in baseball and with virtually no starting rotation in place for 2022. This is abject failure, plain and simple. We're back to crossing our fingers that Andrew Albers has a good night. I just continue to be confused as to why the general consensus on the leadership of this team is that it's "time for them to grow," rather than, "it's time for them to go." But they will not be fired, that much is clear. And I'll still root for the Twins, no matter what. But I haven't seen much in the way of FO moves from this team, or managerial decisions from Rocco, that inspire confidence that this mess is going to turn around any time soon. I think these folks think they're doing just fine, and have just been a bit unlucky. You can't grow if you can't face your faults ... and your failures.- 45 replies
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Yankees: Move Make-Up Game to 2022
LastOnePicked replied to RandBalls Stu's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Every now and then, Stu's column veers from satire into cold, hard reality. Youch. "“Can you just imagine if the Twins have turned things around and are leading the AL Central after Memorial Day?" The joke's on them, though. I can't even imagine this in 2022. Go ahead, Yankees - do your worst. -
Game Score: Yankees 7, Twins 1
LastOnePicked replied to Matthew Taylor's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The antics of team "E-Z Pass" continue, year after year. I don't really mind losing to the Yankees this year (draft pick booster), but I'll believe the Twins are capable to winning a playoff series the year I see them absolutely beat up on the Yankees. Here's hoping that year isn't too far off. -
Game Score: Twins 5, Cleveland 4
LastOnePicked replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There are openings in the rotation, and some of these young guys are absolutely stepping up and claiming them. There are openings in the bullpen, snd some of these second-chance veterans are doing the same. There was an opening for a leadoff hitter - Kepler is claiming it. There's need for a DH - Jeffers and Rooker and upping their game. There was an opening for team leader - Polanco is making it his. This is all so much fun to see - a bit of assertiveness in these guys that says, "this spot on this team - this spot is mine." -
Game Score: Twins 5, Rays 4
LastOnePicked replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What ... is ... happening? I talked trash about this team for two weeks, and they come out play like this? After Cruz is traded? Baseball is confusing. And glorious. But mostly confusing.- 22 replies
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- charlie barnes
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I'm not sure I'm reading Simmons' tweet correctly - is he sort of poking fun at the CDC or other entities for pushing a vaccine that isn't 100% effective? If so, it's a dumb take, sure (no one ever claimed that the vaccine was 100% effective or that it had no side effects). Evidence indicates that's it's widely effective with very mild side effects. BUT, I might want to hear him out first before calling him a nut. And the Twins didn't sign him for his bat or his medical expertise - they signed him to prevent runs. He's done that. Let's move on.

