LastOnePicked

My thought is this: teams know that this FO has painted themselves in a corner. Anyone expecting a "big haul" for Buxton is probably fooling themselves. And I like Joe Ryan, but Joe Ryan ain't Nolan Ryan. Joe Ryan will likely max out as a #3 starter at the very best in his career. A Joe Ryan-type for Byron Buxton trade is a disgustingly huge steal for some other team.

Excellent response. The Twins will never see another player with the raw potential and potential impact of Byron Buxton. Never. Byron Buxton isn't a cog - he's a game-changing HOF-caliber player. And the chance to sign him for his prime years in a deal that certainly wouldn't break the bank? What a gift! Yes, there's risk. Injury history has been nothing short of tragic. Could all add up and knock him out of the game. Or, he could be resilient as heck, tough as nails, and just on the cusp of making his mark permanently on the game. Who on Earth wouldn't want to invest in that?? Since the 2000s began, teams like the Twins NEVER get a chance at having these kinds of players in their prime. This is the textbook definition of moderate risk and high reward ceiling, As some poster noted, you won't get anything better for him in trade than a Larnach or maybe a Martin. Guys we already have. Guys who might play MLB well, but guys you'll never tell your kids about years after they're gone.

"There’s no denying that this front office has done a great job establishing a strong culture and organizational structure." Um, can I deny this? Great article, but I would actually like to question this assertion. Basically, have they? What does "strong culture" mean here? Their teams aren't particularly tough, they don't play fundamental baseball, young players don't play particularly well here when they start and homegrown players now don't seem to want to sign here. Plus, they don't evaluate talent well, and have lost a ton of value in prospects for absolutely zero return. I see this as on often-cited reason why we're supposed to be patient with their moves, but I do not see it. What about this organizational structure is so strong?

My thoughts exactly. This FO just doesn't seem to get that very promising young players sometimes are far more ready for the show than their analysis suggests. I expect they won't protect him, and he'll be lost.

Thoughtful analysis ... of a tragedy in the making. Man, this has been an ugly day in Twins Territory. Wasn't this offseason supposed to help us forget the agony of 2021? Look, I don't like this FO, and I don't trust this FO. But this explanation is plausible: "Buxton has no interest in signing an extension in Minnesota." If it is, then the least this FO can do is really dig in about why. Is it personal preference, or is it that Buxton felt disrespected or slighted here? If so, the organizational norms or practices that led to his discontent have to change. Immediately. Period. And if he is traded, then they have to drop the ridiculous notion that they're "retooling." Admit the folly, ask the fans' forgiveness for a lost window of opportunity, lay out an organizational plan and a timeline and ask the fans to join in on a rebuilding journey. They can even talk big and claim that, with a retooled development staff, it'll be the shortest rebuild in team history. But come clean. Be honest. Treat fans like intelligent adults. Most of us are ... myself excluded.

It's an understanding, thoughtful defense. To me, the mistakes are just too darn numerous and too darn costly, but I understand your thoughts here. I'm really hoping they somehow prove worthy of your praise and loyalty. Fans like you deserve to be rewarded.

It also might be great if people asked themselves if the Twins are really a low-revenue team. At least, according to the data I could find, it looks like they're a mid-revenue team. Wasn't that the whole point of a subsidized new stadium just a decade ago? So it isn't ignorant *at all* to assume that if the Twins were serious about winning they would pursue a mix of lower-cost, high-impact prospect development strategies (like the Rays) as well as a few higher-cost signings of all-star quality players (like the Yankees). Particularly homegrown, fan-favorite players who play at a position of the team's greatest need. That's not "bitching" ... that's wanting the team to assert some intent to win. But I'm very much on board with the suggestion to search for a new PBO and GM. Spot on.

Okay, Doc, but isn't it funny how the Twins don't end up "looking good" on most moves they make under this FO? At some point, we may have to realize that it's more than just bad luck or bad looks.

When the Twins can demonstrate either the ongoing MiLB developmental successes of the A's or Rays OR those team's competitiveness on the field and consistent postseason runs, then maybe these comparisons will ring a little more fair. The Rays are now perennial winners. The As hang in there year after year in surprising ways. The Twins fall short of expectations repeatedly.

Exactly this. 1000% this. We seem to have been fed a PR line since the trade deadline, and any remaining trust is either broken or near the breaking point.

This point seems inescapable to me: the Twins are not a serious MLB team. They are not serious about keeping top talent, and not serious about winning a WS title. They are muddling through year after year ... and the few fans that remain are mostly okay with it.

I strayed too far from Nick's post, and this comment brought me back. "Patience reaps rewards" is one of Nick's takeaways, and I agree. Folks keep mentioning the prospects at the upper levels, but we seem to be forgetting that, just like a once-great FA pitcher in surgery recovery, prospects usually aren't very good in their first few years. In fact, they're often terribly disappointing. We just don't have a solid core that few good new parts can be plugged into. We're a last place team in weak division with holes all over the place, Whatever the FO does this offseason, the rewards probably aren't going to materialize in 2022.

Completely agree, and I look forward to yours and others thoughts as moves (hopefully) get made. You brought up another good point, which is that this FO might view "retool" differently than I do. They might view "retool" as just a larger changeover in parts on the MLB-ready roster. I guess I viewed a "retool" as putting in a few new strong pieces to an already-successful and already-running machine. But, as we saw last year, this machine ain't working anymore. Whatever the Twins are now, they aren't contenders in a more competitive AL Central. 2021 proved that, and they already got worse for 2022 before the season even ended (losing Cruz, Berrios and Maeda). If the team were a car that we intended to win us a race, most mechanics would probably advise us to get real, scrap it and salvage the few good pieces we could. Which is probably why I favor a rebuild, especially if they whiff on a Buxton extension. At that point, it would be clear to me that they won't be willing or able to afford enough quality, established MLB parts to get this organization to be first over the finish line again anytime soon.

I liked your response, and I think a number of your points are sharp and fair. The quote above is where I disagree most strongly. Almost all of the players you list here are still prospects. They are not "here." They have not arrived as regular, reliable, solid major leaguers. We hope they will develop and have sustained success, but as we've seen with even great prospects like Buxton, that process of being a part of a core can take years, But we'll see if the FO was sincere about a retool for 2022 contention. Their additions - or lack thereof - this offseason will likely clarify this by the time Spring Training starts. I wouldn't mind being wrong, but I don't think I am. We'll have to wait and see.

You can guess the answer, though. I think we all can. Twins will pick FAs in January/February and hope for bargains. And, sadly, that's what they probably should do. I never bought into this "retool not rebuild" PR hype for a second. You don't retool for contention by trading away your very effective and durable #1 SP ... particularly when you don't have even a #2 or #3 behind them. By all accounts, this FO was shopping darn near everyone at last season's deadline. That's a hallmark of a rebuild, not a retool. The greatest pain of last year wasn't that they fell apart, because that sometimes happens to mid-market MLB teams. The greatest pain was that this collapse signaled the closing of a 5-year contention window that brought us absolutely nothing in terms of postseason success. We all suffered through the slumping years only to have nothing to show for it a decade later. But it's time to face facts. We now have a team with poor fundamentals in the field, low overall speed, relatively poor contact at the plate and abysmal velocity and poor K-rate at the mound. We enter a season with virtually no starting rotation, with the exception of a few modestly promising rookies who most agree could at best one day stabilize the back-end of a playoff rotation. We have no consensus all-stars, and no players who are widely considered the best in the league at their position. We need to be clear: no mid-tier SP free agent signings are going to change this for 2022 and probably not for 2023. Chicago is strong. Detroit is opening a window of contention. Why waste top FA money at this point? I just get a bit sad seeing so many TD folks get their hopes up, and I blame this FO for their lack of candor. They say that they're retooling, but their actions since July paint a more honest picture. This team is in very tough shape, and there's no reason to be a big player in free agency until they have a new core foundation on which to build. I just wish they'd have the guts to tell fans the hard truth, which might keep the faithful from hanging on to the news of every top FA SP signing this offseason. It's just not going to happen here.

I agree, Mike, but if we can't get 1-3 of those pitchers on our staff, I'm interested in a winning Plan B. This might be it, though that means we need a staff chock full of guys who are great the first time through a lineup.

True, but also laborers vs. owners. Baseball is a game, but also a workplace, and the workers need fair compensation. And, conversely, owners need to be able to ensure operating costs and long-term stability. I'm with Doc on the revenue-sharing aspect. When we see the same big-market teams signing the top FAs and making the playoffs pretty much year after year, it diminishes league competition and fan interest. It kinda feels like a two-tiered league at this point. Conversely, a salary spending floor is also smart. Put a stop to the multi-year payroll slashing for rebuilding teams.

Ah, don't worry, Mr. Gilchrest. The '22 Twins will find a way to teach young people that nothing gets better, Colome or no Colome. Funny stuff, by the way.

Good stuff as always, Tom. The Hicks trade was embarrassingly bad, and rightfully helped to end Ryan's second run as GM. The Yankees saw us coming on that one, as they say. Yuck. Trading Buxton will likely be the defining moment for this FO, and it may take years to assess the outcome. Will it make the team stronger, exchanging an injury-prone CF for hot prospects and durable MLB-ready talent. Or will we watch Buxton finally set the league on fire for a new team while our meager returns fizzle away, Murphy-style? For the record, I don't want to see Buxton traded. I'd much rather look back on an interesting Kepler, Arraez, Rooker or Sano trade. But this FO has already totally fumbled the contract extension talks, so once the new CBA is set, I fully expect Buxton to be moved. If so, they better get it right - their legacy here absolutely depends on it.

Yup. Buxton now and Berrios next year should be our big $$ upcoming free agent priorities. I have no problem with bringing Simmons back for 2022 and have him platoon with Gordon and maybe even Lewis or an under-the-radar prospect in September. Cost effective and maybe even solid. I mean, if we can sign a bigger name FA SS, so be it. I don't want to break payroll or trade prospects for one. Maybe trade if we can get some kind of amazing steal for any combination of Kepler/Arraez/Rooker.

Sure, we fans can handle another PtC pitcher - we just can't handle another PtC drafting and coaching philosophy. But, you raise a good point. If we put $$ into a PtC starter, we better shore up our infield defense.

If this were 2021, I think I could better see the argument. However, the 2022 Twins are not anywhere close to contention and we need our solid prospects to develop for the future here. Plus, we have payroll flexibility - why trade for a SS when you can sign one without losing future impact players?

I agree with the takes here already. I see the allure of having a Jack Morris-like veteran anchor the staff in the hopes of a surprise playoff run, but Morris had hometown ties that these veteran aces don't. They won't sign here. Would you, if you were looking to join a winner? However, the Twins can see how things play out and maybe make a trade for a veteran ace if they're in contention down the stretch. By that point, it should be clear as to who remained healthy and durable as well. I say all this, but I also remember that the Twins have never made this kind of high-impact ace trade before, not even with this FO staff, so not sure why that would change in 2022.

Fifteen years ago. Good gosh. I was a HUGE Twins fan 1986-1995. Went with my dad to a lot of Metrodome games. We saw the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. Then I moved away, got married, started a career and mostly ignored the Twins until getting sucked back in around 2006. I told my Dad that it seemed the Twins now had two(!) aces after years of having none, and that we had to go see this young guy named Liriano. It was a new era for our team. The glory days of World Series runs were coming back. Liriano blew out his elbow that game, and the Twins lost 1-0. My Dad essentially told me to wake him up the next time I thought the Twins might have an actual shot at contending. He was out. Funny, but in 2019 I did sit down with him to watch the Twins take on the Marlins on TV. I thought it would be an easy victory for the Twins and he'd enjoy watching Buxton and a dominant Twins team. Of course, Buxton separated his shoulder and Dyson blew the game in the 9th. Ah, memories. Baseball is a funny game, and the Twins provide more than their share of odd memories and heartbreak. But I still consider myself lucky that my fandom started in that golden little span of twin titles.

I'm disappointed too, but don't let it ruin today. Just put that feeling on hold if/when the team seems poorly coached in April-May. I mean, I try to be generally fair. Tingler paid his dues and impressed people along the way. Even up until June he was well-respected in San Diego. I'm pulling for redemption, and some fire in him to prove he's worth an MLB coaching or managerial spot. He wouldn't have been my pick, but I'm at least happy to hear that he was known for an emphasis on baseball fundamentals.