LastOnePicked

I don't get to watch games often. Haven't made it to Target Field in awhile, and I mostly listen on the radio, so yesterday's YouTube game was a treat. I'm not in any way an expert on pitching, but I came way very, very impressed with Ober. He had remarkable command and poise. If he's a harbinger of things to come, the Twins have a very solid chance at being competitive within a year or so. I say this as a huge FO skeptic and a generally grumpy Twins fan overall. But there might be signs that an organizational plan is coalescing here. I hope so.

After about two solid days of being a fairly negative voice around here, I'm just going to say that I loved watching today's game and I LOVE beating the White Sox. More, please.

Fair points overall, but a big "no" to this. FO staff receive detailed scouting reports, reports on health and physical conditioning - and with regard to trades they field offers from other teams' FO staff that we never hear about. We fans have access to a lot of data, but not the crucial data to make these franchise-altering decisions. If the stated goal from a FO is to develop top-tier starting pitching or to contend for the World Series title and these things don't happen within a reasonable timeframe, it makes all the sense in the world that fans would call for change. It's not our job as fans to do better work for them, or to find the owner a new FO staff. Maybe all we're just arguing here is whether or not it's been a reasonable timeframe yet. Some folks don't think so. Some do. And that's fine - viva la difference.

Friendly request: Can we not expect any fan of a team (we all likely have careers, modest paychecks, family, other obligations) to do the work of a FO staff of a team? It's not the fan's job to be better than the people who are paid tremendous salaries to do this work. It's the fan's job to hold that staff to very high expectations, and to raise the heat when the decisions by the paid professionals don't lead to good outcomes. Fair or not, results are the standard of success - not the quantity or quality of excuses.

They didn't win one game, correct. They weren't even remotely competitive in those playoff appearances. That matters. If some were happy with winning a weak division twice, that's fine. For a lot of us, that wasn't nearly enough. And that's okay, too - it's okay to have high expectations of a highly-touted farm system and a hyped-up FO rebuild. That's not a Bizarro World at all. If you don't ask for more, hope for more or expect more you rarely get more.

Nick, I like that you're trying to stay positive. But these kinds of cherry-picked data points don't help your argument. The first 42 games still count in this miserable season. If anything, those first 42 games are when the FO fielded the Plan A team they intended to field in 2021 - and they were even worse than Plan C (or whatever iteration of this team we're on now). That's not necessarily a mark in their favor - though I was glad to see the team adapt and show some fight in Houston.

For the most part, I agree. Trust in the baseball operations aspect was very low, and animosity was high. But there was a lot of hope and hype for the new prospects in the system. I remember Dave St. Peter responding to one of my emails that the team saw itself on the verge of AL contention, despite the dismal then-current results. We all carried that hope with us. That hope hasn't panned out, even with a FO and organizational overhaul. Does that mean we should long for the days of Terry Ryan? Gosh no - but we also shouldn't exaggerate what we've gotten so far either, or downplay where we are right now as we look ahead. Now, you seem to see this year as just a blip on an otherwise steady path. You used the phrase "because of one bad season" in your article, as though you saw the future and 2021 was just an anomaly. If you can see into the future, great - bring me back some winning lottery numbers. But if you can't, you may have to realize that this season could be part of a long losing streak, rather than a blip. It's fine to hope for a 2022 turnaround, but they've lost their best hitter and their best pitcher, and they were already a terrible team. And these high-end prospect arms we hear about? Almost all have been shut down due to injury or wear. Ober and Jax are probably little more than Nick Blackburn and Andrew Albers. Young sluggers aren't getting fastballs and are going to continue to struggle to adjust. Our defense is below average and slow. And that's a recipe for contention? Is it as bad as we FO detractors think? Maybe not. But it's probably not as rosy a picture as you paint here. If I owned the team, I'd thank Falvey and Levine for their service, but I'd move on - maybe try to pull some folks from SF or TB. I haven't seen anything yet to indicate this FO is better than average at what they need to do (draft, trade, develop), and a team with the Twins' payroll and market needs a well-above-average FO. Without Andy MacPhail, the Twins would have never won in 87 and 91. Top-tier staffing makes a difference. And now I'll let it go. We'll all return to this conversation in a year, when we'll have a better vantage point to see who was more right - the pro-Falvey/Levine crowd, or the folks who were ready to move on.

With respect, we need to get ourselves away from this perspective. When the Twins (or any team) trades away or loses a prospect who has a breakout year or becomes a star, no other team in all of baseball had a better opportunity or clearer vantage point to evaluate that player. The blame falls the heaviest by far on the team that controlled the player. Yes, this does happen across MLB. But some teams can afford these mistakes more than others. And the best Front Offices don't make these mistakes very often, if at all. This FO has made this mistake five times already.

Exactly this. It seems like a lot of folks here are acting like the Twins are running neck-and-neck with Cleveland as division/WC runners-up this year. They are one of the WORST TEAMS IN MLB. This isn't a matter of falling a little short of contention - this is "Total System Failure" territory. That's why I'm so down on the FO. Many teams fall short of their hopes and goals - that's fine. This team was expected to win the division and isn't even close to being competent. That signals a major organizational problem moving forward. Now, the team may have gotten lucky in one way. If you're not going to win, it's probably better to trade Cruz and Berrios and to have a top-5 draft pick in 2022. Let's see what they can do with this little silver lining. Take your lumps, learn from the contenders and turn this thing around in a hurry.

Fair enough, my friend. For what it's worth, I hope I'm wrong and off-base. And I admire your willingness to see the good.

In the interest of fairness, there were some very good FA signings in 2019: Cruz, Cron, Schoop. This made for a very nice mix of established veterans, guys with something to prove and developing young talent. They were a dominant AL Central team in 2019 (though they did maybe benefit from a Cleveland slide at the end). It was fun. Good for them. 2020 doesn't strike me as all that good. Many players regressed, and they backed into the division title against fairly weak competition. Had 2020 been a full season, I doubt the Twins would have even made the playoffs last year. How much credit are they supposed to get for this? I fully understand that if the WS is the only goal, then fans of 28 teams are going to experience disappointing seasons each year. As a fan, I would have considered just some degree of postseason fight - and the development of a young core and strong starting staff and bullpen to build upon - to be worthy of praise. These things just haven't happened. Instead of building and getting stronger, they've now completely collapsed as an organization and seemingly missed a window of contention. Again, why is that worthy of credit?

But we do have an idea after these 5-6 years. They took over one of the worst teams in baseball, and they are again one of the worst teams in baseball. In between, they won zero playoff games. Their trades and free agent signings are a mixed bag at best. Their internal talent evaluation is very poor. They have made dubious contract extensions, and whiffed on extending higher-impact players. Their highly-touted young arms have mostly blown out. The deals they made at this year's deadline generated plenty of press, but the proof of their impact is years away, while the players they traded are thriving. I'm not saying anything negative about who they are as human beings. But I just don't understand the fan loyalty at this point, which doesn't in any way seem earned. Was it all the dazzle of the Bomba Squad year? Don't get me wrong - I LOVE that we beat the Yankees for the season HR record, but I'd trade that in a second for an organization that produces competitive talent more like the Rays or Giants.

Imagine two people run a race. One has everything it needs to win (good shoes, youth, rest, health), and the other runs the race barefooted and hungover. No, it's not the "fault" of the one with the advantage for winning the race, but it's probably not best for him/her to brag too much about winning it, either. Those two division titles are often used as Exhibit A as to why we FO detractors are "wrong." But what was our record against those outside our division and against teams above .500? Most importantly, what was our experience in the playoffs after those titles were won? I'm not angry that they haven't won a World Series, by the way, but I'm concerned that they haven't even in one game been remotely competitive. For all the hype, there just hasn't been much substance. I'm coming off as harsher than I probably am, but I'm surprised that the consensus fan response at this point isn't a whole lot of skepticism and a whole lot of pressure on these guys to make good on their stated objectives. As someone else said here, their leash should be very short at this point. We seem almost too quick to accept their excuses ... or worse, even to make excuses for them.

I swear, last post for a bit, but for those like Nick who are wondering why there's so much negativity or pushback on this FO, here's the core of our argument: Ability to draft: Perhaps too early to tell, though first-round choices don't seem overwhelmingly impressive. And some (Sabato) are mind-bogglingly bad. Ability to assess MiLB talent internally: Doesn't look great at this point. Pathways for prospects isn't clear, and many get blocked by sub-par or replacement-level players. Ability to develop MLB players: So-so. Most young Twins seem particularly fundamentally unsound (though rookies often struggle). Ability to trade and assess MiLB/MLB talent externally: Not good at all. Maeda may have been a slight win, while there are some major, major losses. Ability to field a winner: Division championships in the years when 3 of 5 division foes were completely rebuilding. Not a single playoff victory - in fact, not even a competitive game or a close loss yet. In fact, many of us are wondering why is there so much defense of this regime. It's not a particularly hasty assessment at this point. I'm hoping for the best, but I'm waiting for actual results of a sustainable winner - which was their stated goal. If my assessment isn't fair, I'll be very happy to eat my words.

Isn't the wisest roster management to keep players with the most talent and ability - particularly at the moment when you need those talents/skills? I can be fairly accused of trying to make a point with the benefit of hindsight, but I'm hoping that there is an important lesson in here for Falvey/Levine about talent assessment, too.

That's probably conventional wisdom, yes. But what is Baddoo's actual "position" this year? Who appears more capable of contributing to a MLB team - Baddoo or Cave? I want the FO to be able to make those kinds of assessments with accuracy - not just to rely on general conventional wisdom. I fully realize I'm being additionally tough on the FO here. But like all of you, I love this team, and I want to see them at their best with the most effective talent assessment possible. That's the only way we can build a winner here. And winning a championship is fun - I'm old enough to have seen two of them.

Yes, but I have to repeat an earlier comment - no other MLB team had better access to assess and evaluate Miranda as a player than the Twins. The Twins somehow believed he wasn't ready, and were fine with exposing him. I understand that these decisions are probably very challenging. But I'm getting weary of the idea that all of this happens just by being "unlucky." The best Front Offices find a way to maximize returns consistently. I'd rather be looking for the best than hoping these guys will get better.

I wish I could, but I just can't. They somehow had room for Jake Cave and others on the roster. Baddoo hit .390 in Spring Training. He was clearly ready to go, and any series of offseason workouts/assessments could have told them so. He was the third player drafted in Rule 5. In other words, other teams knew what we didn't know. That's just .... very bad. Plus, they also exposed their breakout 2021 Minor League Player of the Year, Jose Miranda to the Rule 5 draft. Ugh. Yes, it's tough on FO staff, but the only way to evaluate a transaction is by the results. We can give people some grace for understandable mistakes, but teams like the Twins don't have a lot of wiggle room for these kinds of mistakes. These mistakes build - they compound. A Twins team with Baddoo has less to worry about if Kiriloff goes down again or if we end up losing Buxton. Or he could have been a great young trade chip while trying to bring in pitching. More gaps need to be covered now, and all the expense of drafting and developing is a lost investment. This FO is going to get more chances here, and maybe that's as it should be. But I think the team would be fine if they decided to look for other bright young minds from other organizations who are looking for a chance to build a winner. This FO doesn't appear to be anything particularly special.

This is my biggest concern as well. No organization had a better access to assess Baddoo, and they completely misjudged. Same with LaMonte Wade. And selling low on the area of greatest need with this organization (pitching) is also really bad. Right now, the two they gave away in meaningless trades (Ynoa and Gil) are far more prominent and promising than any they've developed. That's a very, very bad sign - that means we're feeding wins to our MLB competitors. I also disagree with this: "which is no worse than the ones we saw repeatedly before they arrived." Look, bad seasons are bad seasons, but the Twins have likely never been further from their preseason expectations than they are this year. It's far worse to watch a contending team crumble to dust than it is to watch a bottom-feeding team face expected struggles. I appreciate what you're doing here, but fans can be forgiven for any anger and pessimism. This FO inherited a promising young team on the cusp of greatness. And with zero playoff wins to show for it, they have now turned it into a bottom-5 MLB team with the worst pitching staff in baseball. Is it a blip or a trend? I guess we'll find out next year.

Simmons' defense is still strong, and his field awareness is keen. If I were the manager, I'd want that experience on the field as an example to the younger players and to give the young SPs and RPs a potential boost (and maybe even to shorten their innings). But otherwise I agree - after 2021, time to move on.

Dear MLB, We know this is a bit unorthodox, but we would like to request to swap the outcomes of the last two Twins-Astros games for the first two games of the 2020 playoffs. Sincerely, Twins Fans

Good list, but I prefer that they sort out their in-house pitching prospects in 2022-23, and then make a wise trade for an ace at the deadline if they are somehow in contention.

Polanco should be very, very proud. He's made every adjustment and fought through every adversity so far. I look forward to him leading a younger, hungry team into the postseason in the (hopefully near) future.

This is going to be a patience game. Let players like Martin develop, and give them time to work through their challenges as they break into MLB. The idea of competing for the division in 2022 or 2023 seems like nonsense to me, so I don't feel any pressure for these new prospects to fill a gap for a contender. All I want is the right coaching to help them be strong, smart and competitive as ballplayers. Martin seems like he could be a reliable .300 hitter, which is great.

Excellent write-up, Matthew. Well-researched and fair-minded. A home run. I think this story hit some of us hard because it fits one of the fear narratives we have about this organization under Falvey/Levine and Baldelli/Johnson - that they've got a dogmatic approach, they think they're the smartest people in baseball, and they pay more attention to numbers than to players. Plus, us fans have been hit hard by the reality that the team we had dreamed of seeing win a championship is now breaking apart and sinking to the bottom of MLB. "We had a 100-win pace ballclub for two years and all I got was this lousy AL Central Division Title T-Shirt." But, as some cooler heads have posted here, it is possible that the Twins can adjust quickly. It is possible that some of the problems are internal, but some are maybe from the new players themselves and some are just a matter of terrible luck with regard to injury and recovery. And as you note here, in the case of Shoemaker, maybe it's all three. That said, the Twins better be very open to criticism. They've traded away top players, they've given away new young stars for absolutely nothing, and, outside of Cruz, their FA signings performed terribly. They've got a lot of fair criticism coming this offseason - from fans and from players within the organization. Time to listen and to learn some hard lessons now.