LastOnePicked

This is my biggest concern as well. No organization had a better access to assess Baddoo, and they completely misjudged. Same with LaMonte Wade. And selling low on the area of greatest need with this organization (pitching) is also really bad. Right now, the two they gave away in meaningless trades (Ynoa and Gil) are far more prominent and promising than any they've developed. That's a very, very bad sign - that means we're feeding wins to our MLB competitors. I also disagree with this: "which is no worse than the ones we saw repeatedly before they arrived." Look, bad seasons are bad seasons, but the Twins have likely never been further from their preseason expectations than they are this year. It's far worse to watch a contending team crumble to dust than it is to watch a bottom-feeding team face expected struggles. I appreciate what you're doing here, but fans can be forgiven for any anger and pessimism. This FO inherited a promising young team on the cusp of greatness. And with zero playoff wins to show for it, they have now turned it into a bottom-5 MLB team with the worst pitching staff in baseball. Is it a blip or a trend? I guess we'll find out next year.

Simmons' defense is still strong, and his field awareness is keen. If I were the manager, I'd want that experience on the field as an example to the younger players and to give the young SPs and RPs a potential boost (and maybe even to shorten their innings). But otherwise I agree - after 2021, time to move on.

Dear MLB, We know this is a bit unorthodox, but we would like to request to swap the outcomes of the last two Twins-Astros games for the first two games of the 2020 playoffs. Sincerely, Twins Fans

Good list, but I prefer that they sort out their in-house pitching prospects in 2022-23, and then make a wise trade for an ace at the deadline if they are somehow in contention.

Polanco should be very, very proud. He's made every adjustment and fought through every adversity so far. I look forward to him leading a younger, hungry team into the postseason in the (hopefully near) future.

This is going to be a patience game. Let players like Martin develop, and give them time to work through their challenges as they break into MLB. The idea of competing for the division in 2022 or 2023 seems like nonsense to me, so I don't feel any pressure for these new prospects to fill a gap for a contender. All I want is the right coaching to help them be strong, smart and competitive as ballplayers. Martin seems like he could be a reliable .300 hitter, which is great.

Excellent write-up, Matthew. Well-researched and fair-minded. A home run. I think this story hit some of us hard because it fits one of the fear narratives we have about this organization under Falvey/Levine and Baldelli/Johnson - that they've got a dogmatic approach, they think they're the smartest people in baseball, and they pay more attention to numbers than to players. Plus, us fans have been hit hard by the reality that the team we had dreamed of seeing win a championship is now breaking apart and sinking to the bottom of MLB. "We had a 100-win pace ballclub for two years and all I got was this lousy AL Central Division Title T-Shirt." But, as some cooler heads have posted here, it is possible that the Twins can adjust quickly. It is possible that some of the problems are internal, but some are maybe from the new players themselves and some are just a matter of terrible luck with regard to injury and recovery. And as you note here, in the case of Shoemaker, maybe it's all three. That said, the Twins better be very open to criticism. They've traded away top players, they've given away new young stars for absolutely nothing, and, outside of Cruz, their FA signings performed terribly. They've got a lot of fair criticism coming this offseason - from fans and from players within the organization. Time to listen and to learn some hard lessons now.

I'm sad to say it, but trusting this FO to bolster this team to anything resembling contention with FA signings seems like a real stretch after 2021. Plus, as we've seen, a lot of big names don't want to be here ... even when we were good. The path ahead is a Rays-like restructuring and a hell of a lot of patience. It will help if the FO can avoid giving away the AL Rookie of the Year to a division rivals too.

I like this, Doc. I like all of it. And I am more angry than rational right now. I've wanted to see this team finally turn it around and set this state on fire again for baseball. The pieces were all there, or so we thought. I disagree that 2019 and 2020 weren't disappointing, though. They ended with an immediate postseason whimper. Is it all just bad luck ... or something else? It seems that Rocco and the FO are all going to be given a fair shot to right the ship. We shall see how they rise to the challenge. This is no longer someone else's mess ... it's theirs alone.

The long rebuild can't be helped, I'm afraid. We're one of the five worst MLB teams, and we got significantly worse for 2022 after the Berrios trade. Cruz is also unlikely to resign here next year. So, it's going to have to be a game of patience with a rookie team. Again.

"Now the ball is in Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and the various Twins coaching staffs' court. It is on their shoulders to make the Twins' newfound prospect currency count." This is the source of my pessimism. I can't imagine a group I have less confidence in for this task. I think our talent acquisition is strong, but I have less than zero faith in the FO and staff who develop and evaluate that talent in our system. Too many great players have been given away for nothing. Too many terrible players remain. This organization needs a rebuild. It's sad. We had a clear window for a good run, and this group let it all slip through their fingers. We are now a bottom-5 MLB team. Why would they get another shot?

This is the part of the article that I don't understand: "Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put in an infrastructure of sustainability and competitiveness." How so? They had a great 2019, an okay 2020, and are now again a bottom-5 team in all of MLB. I've watched this team for a long time, and I wouldn't describe them as remotely "competitive." It's disappointing. I wanted them to do these things, but they haven't. Not yet, at least, and patience is wearing thin.

16.62 ERA? He's gonna fit right in here. Here's hoping he can figure things out, and that our AAA staff can help.

Sadly, one of the biggest takeaways from this year for me is that though the team seems to draft quite well, they develop and evaluate/promote talent extremely poorly - and they have since the Ryan years. And that means the team pays for drafting and time in the minors, only to lose that talent. Essentially, they invest in their major league opponents. For all of the talk about our two up-and-coming OFs, Wade and Baddoo are clearly better players at this point - and they were lost for nothing. True, not many fans could have predicted that, but that's not our job. It's the FO job to make these calls. And they've been wrong far more often than they've been right this year. If that continues, this team has no hope to contend.

You seem like a sharp GM. Good moves, and sharp read of the deadline possibilities. If the Twins are serious about the belief that they can contend in 2022, the HAVE to keep Berrios and Buxton, don't they? What's the harm in seeing if the team has fight in 2022? If they falter early again, put Berrios/Buxton on the trade market in June. If Berrios/Buxton specifically falter, then you save yourself from trying to lock them into a new contract or you go year-to-year with them while they rebuild free agent value. I wouldn't trade either one of these players now in 2021 if I had even the faintest idea that this team could make a run in 2022. However, personally, I don't think they have a chance to knock the White Sox from their perch for another 2-3 years or so. So I might lean towards a greater rebuild mode than most.

This all feels too public. Buxton is struggling with overcoming terrible injury luck this year, and this is a stress he doesn't need. Why have the offer details leaked from the Twins FO? It feels very much like a set-up to make Buxton look like the bad guy for turning down an offer, but this just should not be being discussed publicly right now. Plenty of time in the offseason. It's not like the Twins FO would sell low on him before the 2021 deadline - that would be incredibly unwise.

I'm going to have to do a little research on the concept of a "deceptive fastball." I hear that term bandied about, but I don't understand it in a major league context. Seems like the only thing that a straight fastball can do to deceive a big-league hitter is to be incredibly fast. Good trade. I hope. Though I'm afraid the Rays will turn the AA pitcher they got from us into some kind of an ace.

This 2021 team struggles in high-leverage situations, and that was certainly true in Rocco's playoff appearances as well. And that's troubling, because it signals something that, to me, seems to be the primary value of a big league coach: getting players mentally and physically ready to excel in tense game situations. I don't quite know what the best managers do, though. I don't know if they run drills that the Twins don't. I don't know if they take a more active role in interpersonal dynamics in the clubhouse. I don't know if they create an environment where every player is clear on his role and expectations for his play. Whatever it is, Rocco doesn't have it, He comes across as a nice guy, but also very weak and indecisive. And he's been given a good chance here, but his teams have fallen short of expectations. I know it's an unpopular opinion, but with a youth movement on the way, in 2022 I'd bring in a manager with more seasoning and more experience with playoff success (either as a player or a coach). In fact, I'd fire Rocco this August, just to send a message that the team's play this season is unacceptable.

If you're not into satire, or if you're easily angered by talk of Minnesota Nice, please don't read this. All others, please enjoy: Yup, you betcha! Gardy is back, right where he should be. Sure, it took me awhile to understand it, but that’s just because I’ve been spending too much time watching other “coastal” teams like the As and Rays. That’s a big no-no. I need to keep my attention at home, right where my folks always told me to keep it. You see, from a true Minnesotan’s perspective, bringing back Gardy makes all kinds of sense. In fact, in Minnesota, the word "Gardy" actually means manager. You can hear it in the halls of some of Minnesota’s top companies: "I’ve gotta go see my Gardy for my annual performance review.” And you can hear the response from coworkers in their cubes as he walks down the hall “Go on! Get after it!” Why confuse the good people of Minnesota by forcing them to think about another word for manager, like "Molitor," or "Glynn," or … "Martinez" (hey, let’s not go crazy now). Sure, he’s had some bad seasons, but in Minnesota, “bad” and “season” are our two most commonly used words. Besides, Minnesota is the land of misplaced optimism and 10,000 chances. What else could explain such odd cultural phrases as, say, Vikings playoff excitement or Timberwolves draft party? Not successful? Don’t worry so much. In Minnesota, we know all too well that getting to the big games and enjoying the limelight are overrated anyway. Just ask Walter Mondale or Tim Pawlenty. Besides, we’re a health conscious state, and the proud home of the Mayo Clinic. Turns out, we learned some pretty tough lessons with our last run of baseball success (or should I say “excess”?). The playoff series of 1987 and 1991 left countless numbers of our people exhausted, hoarse and with at least temporary hearing loss. Productivity at workplaces and schools suffered, and to make matters worse, we willfully polluted our beautiful downtown streets with pounds and pounds of shredded paper landfill. Some of our young people even stayed up past 10:00pm! Is that really the way we want to live in this state? I don’t think so. And don’t forget, we don’t even have a roof on our home park anymore. Playoff baseball would just let October’s deadly chill sink into the lungs of every single fan at Target Field, as it did for two games in 2010. Fortunately, the resigning of Gardy is a clear statement from management that this should never happen again. And really, we HAD to resign Gardenhire. After all, not extending his contract after it had ended is practically the same thing as firing the poor guy, and that’s just a place none of us wanted to go. So hurtful! Besides, it’d clearly be wrong to treat a southern guest and Oklahoma native so callously, particularly one who likes fishing our lakes. Minnesota nice! Now some say that there is a wave of talented immigrant Latino ballplayers on their way up, and I say who better than Gardy to anglicize their names with fun pronunciations and a y-sound at the end? Besides, we need somebody to assist them with cultural acclimation, and it’s reassuring to know that, even if J.O. Berrios (that’s kind of flashy -- can we just call him “Joey”?) isn’t entirely fluent, he’ll still know how to say “I threw the living fire out of the ball” and “they just got after it more than we did” in perfect English. And not to worry, if it turns out that this new crop of players can’t adapt to the Twins Way (hallowed be that phrase), we can always trade them in for utility infielders and established closers. So, dontcha know, where once I was lost, now I am found. Terry Ryan, whose stern presence and no-nonsense talk reminds us all that, after all, baseball isn’t supposed to be fun, made the right choice. Bringing Ron Gardenhire back after zero league pennants and three straight 90+ loss seasons may seem odd to outsiders, but it’s fundamentally, exclusively, quintessentially Minnesotan.

Would love for Ryan to comment on this. Hope that Mackey or some other columnist gets to ask him about this apparent "slip" of the plans for 2014. This just seems like bad business. Setting aside the team's dismal record, the players have seemed almost entirely unresponsive to coaching this year, despite claims that they like him as manager. To give Gardy an extension now seems like a reward for a job poorly done. Of course, "bad business" has become a hallmark of this organization in the last few years. Batting practice tickets, anyone?

Bruce Brothers' Pioneer Press column on Tuesday's loss contains this quote from GM Terry Ryan, regarding the need to upgrade the 2014 staff: "I would like to think I'm going to be able to get Gardy some people here." http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24169672/minnesota-twins-have-plenty-issues-91st-loss This seems to confirm rumors about Gardy's future contract status raised by ESPN 1500's Wolfson, and provides the most clear evidence to date that, at the very least, a one-year extension has already been agreed to, despite Ryan's previous claim that no decision would be made on Gardy's position with the team until after the season. More to come, I'm sure ...

It was weird to read Reusse’s “Twins Should Show Mercy” article, because we took such radically different paths to come to the same conclusion. Reusse seems to paint Gardy as some kind of victim of poor organizational management, but I see him as part and parcel of that poor management. I found myself wondering if Gardy’s good relationship with the local press has won him some additional cover for the team's poor performance? I’m completely unpersuaded by the “Gardy’s been given nothing to work with” argument. The man has managed a Cy Young, multiple MVPs, Gold Glovers, former and current All-Stars, a host of high-level prospects and top-quartile payrolls – all without a single AL title to show for it. It seems to me that smarter managers have done a lot more with even a little less. While it’s true that even the best of managers would find it hard to win with the 2011, 2012 or 2013 starting rotation, Gardy isn’t without some culpability. I have to wonder why Gardy hasn’t been vocal about taking his allegedly supreme managerial talent to another club if the Pohlad’s don’t start opening up the purse strings for a front-line free agent starter? Or to have pulled off a critical trade during the 2000’s playoff runs? His complicity and deference to ownership have not always served the team well, and I see that as another reason for change. I hear Gardy or Terry Ryan profess their “accountability” for this mess over and over, but I have no idea what that means. Neither are accepting pay cuts, or offering demotions, or considering leaving the organization, or even changing their approach to match crafty, moneyball-minded teams like the As and Rays. What else could accountability mean? And for all those who say that Gardy ought to have a chance to manage the soon-to-be-champions 2015 Twins, I can only ask, Why do you think the future is going to be different than the past? If, on the off-chance that a majority of our upcoming prospects become successful big-leaguers, and the Twins manage to win a future AL Central flag, they will still have to face the 2015 Yankees or As – or some other powerhouse with deeper pockets, more advanced systems or better pitching. How will the results be different when the philosophy in the dugout remains exactly the same? In short, firing Gardy should not, and would not, be some kind of public relations move. Winning brings people back to the ballpark, not handing out pink slips. Firing Gardy should be just the first step in forging the Twins Way 2.0 – a new blueprint for another decade of mostly successful season runs, but with the added steps to make the team truly competitive for a league, and even possibly a national, title.

It was weird to read Reusse’s “Twins Should Show Mercy” article, because we took such radically different paths to come to the same conclusion. Reusse seems to paint Gardy as some kind of victim of poor organizational management, but I see him as part and parcel of that poor management. I found myself wondering if Gardy’s good relationship with the local press has won him some additional cover for the team's poor performance? I’m completely unpersuaded by the “Gardy’s been given nothing to work with” argument. The man has managed a Cy Young, multiple MVPs, Gold Glovers, former and current All-Stars, a host of high-level prospects and top-quartile payrolls – all without a single AL title to show for it. It seems to me that smarter managers have done a lot more with even a little less. While it’s true that even the best of managers would find it hard to win with the 2011, 2012 or 2013 starting rotation, Gardy isn’t without some culpability. I have to wonder why Gardy hasn’t been vocal about taking his allegedly supreme managerial talent to another club if the Pohlad’s don’t start opening up the purse strings for a front-line free agent starter? Or to have pulled off a critical trade during the 2000’s playoff runs? His complicity and deference to ownership have not always served the team well, and I see that as another reason for change. I hear Gardy or Terry Ryan profess their “accountability” for this mess over and over, but I have no idea what that means. Neither are accepting pay cuts, or offering demotions, or considering leaving the organization, or even changing their approach to match crafty, moneyball-minded teams like the As and Rays. What else could accountability mean? And for all those who say that Gardy ought to have a chance to manage the soon-to-be-champions 2015 Twins, I can only ask, Why do you think the future is going to be different than the past? If, on the off-chance that a majority of our upcoming prospects become successful big-leaguers, and the Twins manage to win a future AL Central flag, they will still have to face the 2015 Yankees or As – or some other powerhouse with deeper pockets, more advanced systems or better pitching. How will the results be different when the philosophy in the dugout remains exactly the same? In short, firing Gardy should not, and would not, be some kind of public relations move. Winning brings people back to the ballpark, not handing out pink slips. Firing Gardy should be just the first step in forging the Twins Way 2.0 – a new blueprint for another decade of mostly successful season runs, but with the added steps to make the team truly competitive for a league, and even possibly a national, title.

Nice post, JimCrikket. Sadly, I don't think you'll get what you, and all of us, are looking for. The Twins have a clear, no-punch-back policy. While they all care, and they're all professionals, this organization doesn't foster a fighting attitude or spirit. In fact, any attitude at all is usually frowned upon. The face of the Twins isn't nicknamed "vanilla" for nothin'. They'll play a safe season, with low expectations, and moderately improved play over 2011 and 2012. Yawn.

Just for fun, I've gathered up my looking glass, my Ouija board, my Magic 8 ball, and put together a sneak peek into April and May. As I've felt with nearly everything I've predicted for the Twins in the last two years, I hope to heck I'm wrong. Be curious to see what you all think: April Pitching: Starting pitching will be borderline atrocious, sucking any possible enthusiasm from the casual fan base. Worley’s WHIP will be well above 1.60 and Pelfry will be alternately marginally effective and profoundly bad. Hendriks will be terrible, solidifying impressions that he’s strictly a AAAA pitcher. Correia will actually be the surprise, posting an ERA just barely above or below 4.00 and a few surprise wins bolstered by strong offense on the days he pitches. Ryan, in an interview, may declare premature victory in his signing. The bullpen will also have its bumps, including two blown saves by the otherwise-strong Perkins in the closer role, leading to the beginnings of rumblings from the fanbase to consider alternatives. M & M Update: To the shock of many, Mauer will begin several games at the start of the season hitting 2nd, and he’ll perform statistically strong there. Gardy, however, will look for every routine out as a sign that Mauer is better slotted in the 3-spot, and Mauer will hit there the rest of the season. Morneau will struggle to hit above .250 with 2-3 home runs, leading some to wonder if back stiffness is the culprit, or if the change in batting coach is to blame. He may visit the DL. The New Kid: Hicks will patrol the outfield well, but will struggle to hit for average, ending the month just above the .230 mark. Gardy will raise every missed relay or slight rookie mistake at the plate in postgame interviews, adding that “Hicksy’s learning.” With Mastroianni playing well, running well and hitting for average, articles about “CF competition,” and Hicks and “service time,” will begin to pop up again. Summary: Defense is noticeably improved over 2013, but pitching is surprisingly worse. Poor play against the Tigers in the opening series in their series sweep sets the tone for a bad month (Twins officials will maddeningly use the cold weather start as a stock excuse for the team’s poor play and low attendance). Record: 9-17 Likely DL Candidates: Morneau, Pelfrey, Plouffe May Pitching: Deduno returns to the rotation in late-April/early May, and will quickly lead the starters in K’s. However, his walk rate will continue to frustrate Gardy and cast doubt on his longer-term status with the organization. PJ Walters and Cole DeVries will also be starters in the rotation, offering some hope of stabilizing the back end of the rotation with so-so, but consistent, results. Many in the blogosphere will begin to call out Ryan for returning the Twins nearly to their 2012 rotation disasters, with the noticeable exceptions of Worley (still struggling, but showing slight improvement) and Correia (starting to get knocked around). Hitting: With Parmalee hitting around .260, Gardy begins to platoon Ramirez more frequently in RF (if he’s not covering for an injured Morneau). Both prove to be serviceable, if unspectacular (5-6 HR between the two of the by the end of the month). Plouffe returns from the DL and retakes 3B from Carroll/Escobar and hits very well, leading all to hope the injury bug has been squashed for good. Hicks improves at the plate somewhat, but talk continues about whether or not he should “get some AAA at-bats,” as GM Ryan suggests in an interview. Mauer leads the AL in OBP. Willingham keeps to a good pace: .275 BA with 8-9 HR over the first two months. The Mood: A rift between Gardy/Andy and Worley becomes apparent, as frustrations about the bad start linger into late spring. Dozier’s solid play and competitive-but-supportive attitude start positioning him as something of a clubhouse leader, and his outstanding play at 2B clearly stands out as a highlight of the first two months. The fans that remain attached to the team are calling for Gardy’s firing more loudly than ever, while Ryan defends him, saying that “we can’t let a cold start and some injuries be the reason why we push this guy out the door.” Ryan clarifies later, conceding that his evaluations of players and coaches are ongoing, and that things “have to get turned around here pretty quickly.” The Skinny: The record improves, but not by much. Tears in the 2013 blueprint are now painfully obvious, and it appears that some of the young arms in the system may be getting their shot sooner rather than later. Gibson, unfortunately, continues not to be ready for a big-league start. The noticeable successes of Gomez, Hardy, Ramos and even, to a degree, Slowey keep the spector of the Smith era at the forefront of many fan rants. All eyes are now firmly on the play and development of the top prospects in the minors, as division contention is, by all indications, clearly out of reach. Record: 21-34 Coming Up in May: June and July preview (in which I predict we see a characteristic summer hot streak for the Twins that helps them flirt with .500, tragically swaying Ryan towards hints of a contract extension for Gardy).