LastOnePicked

I don't hate to say it at all. I want this team to win a World Series. There is no path forward to that goal with this core, this coaching staff and/or this FO. If anything, last year was the time to begin a rebuild and we're already a year off schedule. I'm drafting a blog post on this exact issue.

First of all, the Twins didn't do nearly enough to bolster the rotation. Gray worked out reasonably well, yes. Relying on the likes of Bundy and Archer was ridiculous, and ignoring the bullpen was a serious, and costly, mistake. It seems like the FO just assumed that the pitching pipeline was ready to fill in all of the gaps. That was maybe the biggest problem for this team, and it ultimately wasted a good year from Correa. But you also raise good points about the core position players, They were counted on, and they couldn't get it done. But should they have been counted on? Kepler has been a hot mess for three years. Sano hasn't shown an ability to adapt or stay fit. Arraez and Polanco have consistent nagging injuries. We don't even need to say anything about Byron Buxton and his tragic injury history. Yes, the FO saw the instability offered by Donaldson and Garver and made adjustments, but relying on the core that they kept to produce another division title was a questionable call at best. That's really my biggest concern going forward: the Twins are just putting too much weight on injury-prone players. The established core mentioned above are going to be another year older and even more prone to injury. The "new" core of Lewis, Kirilloff, Jeffers and Larnach are just starting their careers with exactly the same concerns, if not much worse. You probably don't get an all-star shortstop out of a player with repeatedly torn ACLs, or an all-star slugging LF with a history of chronic wrist pain. And the Twins need all-stars - they need an elite player somewhere on the field. Once Correa leaves, the only position on this team featuring an elite-caliber player will be the platoon/bench CF. Oof. At some point, this team is going to have to admit that it can't get to a title with this core. Yes, it's sad and maybe even represents some bad luck, but this team is so much closer to being the Tigers than the Yankees. If that doesn't suggest it's time for a total coaching and roster rebuild, I don't know what does.

"the Twins would be silly not to make Lewis a central part of their plan. With a central locker location in the clubhouse." I get exactly what you're saying here, but there is a danger in building a clubhouse around a player with serious injury concerns. I think we've seen this play out already with Buxton and how much his repeated injuries deflate the team's morale. And, according to an article one of the TD folks shared at the time of his OF incident, the rates of ACL re-tears after two tears already is ... not encouraging. I love Royce Lewis. I feel sick inside about what's happened in his career. He deserves better. Long-suffering Twins fans deserve better. I hate even acknowledging this, but there is actually a chance he won't ever play baseball at this level again, and if he does he likely won't be at full speed, The Twins really need to start building around a more reliable, durable core. Here's hoping he bucks the odds, and that Twins fans finally get their next generation all-star.

I'm sorry, but you're saying there are credible studies that validate the concept of "luck"? You're pulling my leg, right? Let's not get carried away with the idea that the 2022 Twins are a huge improvement of the 2021 Twins. They may end only one game better, record-wise, and at least the 2021 Twins could beat a team like the Astros. I try to think about baseball the way I want to see Twins leadership think. And from that perspective, I would NEVER, EVER hand over my team's fate to the concept of "luck." You have to fight with whatever tools/skills you have to make your own luck.

I appreciate the thoughtful response, but I couldn't possibly disagree more vehemently with this statement. A winning mentality makes its own luck, or it makes change when it falls short. I mean, isn't it funny how only the "lucky" teams seem to prioritize their depth, build a strong bullpen, can hit with RISP, and don't stick with a failing closer? I think luck has stunningly little to do with where the Twins now find themselves.

I'm confused - didn't we have this exact same conversation at the end of last season? What exactly do we expect to see change? We know who these folks are, and we clearly see their results. I don't think those results warrant another year of futility. If we fans don't push aggressively for change NOW - at the very least a new manager + pitching and hitting coaches - I fear we'd be making the same exact mistake as sticking with Colome or Pagan. Yes, there was past success with both, but the results now are pretty clearly damaging the team's chances at winning.

First, Cleveland continues to churn out reliable starters, despite the fact that they've been a winning organization for a while now. So yes, the Twins continue to fall far short of their example. Second, it's not so much the run differential, it's also the durability. Cleveland's young staff has remained largely healthy. Ours has not. That's what I think people are referring to when they say the pipeline is busted. You don't praise a pitching staff for promise, and there's not much to be excited about when an Ober or a Winder arrive and can only make 10-12 starts a year.

I've really been trying to pin down what's wrong with this club in terms of culture, and your reply helped trigger some additional thoughts, so thank you. I'll have to find the citation, but basically there was a research project a few years back that tried to explore the relationship between mentoring messages and student success on math tests. If I remember correctly, the project drew from a pool of students who had approximately the same strong math aptitude scores. They divided the pool into two groups and separated them: Group A were essentially told that they were average students, and if they worked harder than anyone, they could improve and actually become great at math. Group B were told that they were already high achievers at math, and that all they had to do was simply maintain their excellence. When tested at the end of the year, Group A outscored Group B by a large margin. That's not surprising. What is surprising is that when it came time to take optional tests - to test their learning along the way - almost every student in Group A took optional tests. Almost no students in Group B did. Rocco is very good at supportive messages. He's kind, and he sees the best in his players. Sadly, I think that's maybe part of the problem. I don't think he understands how to instill a sense of urgency and hunger in his players. He's stuck in 2019 thinking - that this is still a 100-win team. What he doesn't understand is that the 2019 team really wasn't all that good, and the playoffs proved it.

Except usually in a rebuild you gain top prospects, not lose them. If only the rebuild had started already.

Fair. But I'm sure people thought this about Jayce Tingler in San Diego, too. Epic collapses usually require a shake-up. And it seems to be paying off for the Padres.

Even if they had originally planned to do so, I don't believe the FO can possibly bring back Baldelli after this complete faceplant finish. I know a lot of folks here on TD think his job is safe, but I don't think you can watch the way this team has carried itself and keep him on. I'm not even sure he wants the job anymore at this point. Time for a change in the dugout. All new coaching staff in 2023.

Lewis absolutely cannot be counted on if and when he returns. Two ACL tears can't help but have a major impact on his career as an infielder. If he can provide anything, that's wonderful, but no one should count on him as a regular SS going forward. Lee and Miller likely won't be ready in 2023 either. This club will be just so much farther from contention without Correa, and they were clearly far away even with him. 2023 has to be the start of a true rebuild, so take your lumps with Palacios, let Lewis recover, let Lee develop and see if there's a low-cost SS to be found, either in free agency or through a waiver claim.

I sometimes get the feeling that Twins fans do more work to bolster this team than the FO. It's an interesting thought experiment, though. Trades for Lopez, Mahle, etc. wouldn't have happened, but perhaps Gray, Correa, Kepler, Polanco and/or Arraez would have been dealt for good prospects. Doubtful that the team would have rallied in August/September the way they did in April/May, but the vibe of a second straight losing year would have been buffered by the strengthened farm system and the sense that a rebuild was well underway. Come to think of it, I prefer your alternate reality scenario. The vibe would have been different, yes.

Correct. He's a competitor, and there are no other fighters here. The Twins need to develop top talent and a culture of winning. Put the money from Correa's contract into an organization-wide rebuild. Don't just sign Astros' former stars - become the next Astros.

Out of all of the terrible things that have happened this season, this sentence stands out as the worst. And it's not that you're wrong, either. Ugh, what a sign of a dismal franchise, when Jake Cave seems worth keeping.

First, I loved the response. I think it's a thoughtful take and a lot more generous and hopeful than my own. But, I really think I'd caution anyone who feels good about these options going forward. Two are veterans with MAJOR injury questions marks (Maeda, Mahle). Two are promising young starters with MAJOR injury question marks (Ober, Winder). Two are completely unproven commodities (Sands, SWR). And two are #3-#4 starters at best on a playoff-caliber team (Gray, Ryan). That's not what I'd call a lot of options that the team can bank on for 2023, no. And beyond those we mentioned, there are virtually no top arms waiting in the wings in the minors. Add to that, this will be a club with a brand new pitching coach with no relationships with the players on which to build. So, pessimism is warranted. And it may not even be an issue of them all experiencing injuries in 2023. This just isn't a team that can stack up against the competition. There are no elite players at any position, with the exception of our platoon CF, who is also injury prone. I stand by my argument: the time for a total system rebuild is now.

Good article. I understand where you're coming from here, and you're probably right about the team's "failure to capitalize." But I wonder if there wasn't a bigger problem beneath all this: delusional thinking. Bringing in Correa was the kind of "go big or go home" deal that we Twins fans have been begging for for years. However, putting him behind a starting staff of one established #2-#3 starter, two very iffy reclamation projects, one promising homer-prone rookie and another promising young starter with a significant history of injuries was questionable at best. Then, trading away your best reliever just before the season started for a starting pitcher with chronic arm problems and a closer who destroyed his team's playoff chances the year before was borderline insanity. Yes, Rogers did ultimately decline, but Paddack was almost instantly injured and Pagan - well, we all know exactly what happened there. No one should have been surprised. Added to that, the team put its emphasis on a resurgent Buxton as the team leader, and at first that looked like it would pay off beautifully. Sadly, reality couldn't be denied. Injuries take their toll on a body, and Buxton's season was derailed again, just as it has been, and just as it always will be. The reality was that this was a last place team that didn't have the pieces at SP, RP, C, DH and CF to compete in 2022. The delusional thinking was that the team could simply sign a top SS and a few bargain SPs and get right back into contention. Falvey and Levine put too much stock in their ability to build a pitching staff and relief corps. It's good they believe in themselves on this front, but seemingly no one else who follows baseball shares their confidence. The FO should have seen these many question marks. They should have realized that the previous window of contention had closed. It would have been disappointing, but they should have committed to a rebuilding process, using 2022 as an audition for young arms and rookie talent. Instead, they weakened the farm system in the offseason and at the deadline, likely prolonging any chance at a return to contention. The disappointing end of 2022 could have marked the end of Year 2 of a rebuild, with a surging farm system and a better idea of whom to keep and whom to trade. Instead, the work of righting the ship for this club still has yet to begin. Reality is painful sometimes. Anyone who thinks this team has a shot at contending in 2023 likely has a lot more pain ahead.

Maybe the real lesson out of this whole deal is this: be like the As or Reds. Admit when it's time to rebuild, unload likely-to-bust arms at peak trade value, and try to speed up the return to contention.

I'm thinking you missed the general point of the article (winning playoff games should be an absolute imperative for this club), but I'll run with what you might think is a knock on me. Yes, all I care about is the Twins winning the World Series. I wish more Twins fans, players and personnel felt the same. If you don't set ambitious goals, you'll never meet them.

I've seen this argument a few times, but where is this line of thinking coming from? I don't see anything that indicates that 2023 is a part of some plan for winning. No Correa. Injured prospects. Depleted farm system. Buxton likely having already given his best on the field. Busted pitching pipeline. This FO has shown absolutely no ability to sign impact starters or relievers. What am I missing about this strange focus on the FO's mysterious "plan" for 2023?

With respect, no. It has been 18 years since the Twins last playoff victory. If anything, expectations have become perennially too low for this club.

"the Twins are running a myriad of deals in order to get fans out to the ballpark on a dime." Sadly, that would still be about nine cents of an overpay for the quality of this club. But thanks for passing on the deals! ?

You compliment me, and yet your reply articulates the Twins management issues far better than anything I wrote in my blog post. Excellent points. Thank you.

The changes this team needs have to be intentional, though, and I don't see the will to change here. I don't even think the organization feels it needs to change. That's the problem.

There’s a great scene in the first season of Ted Lasso. Coach Lasso is sitting and mulling over end of season strategy with his assistant, Coach Beard. Lasso realizes that his approach with his players might not give the team the best shot at winning, but smiles and reassures Coach Beard that “winning ain’t how we measure success.” Coach Beard turns red. He slams his fist on the table and hollers, “DAMN IT, IT IS!” Winning matters. Which brings us, ironically enough, back to the Minnesota Twins. In the last 18 years of baseball, only two MLB teams have failed to win a postseason game. One of those teams, the Seattle Mariners, are a virtual lock to win a Wild Card spot. That may soon leave the Twins alone at the bottom of the postseason winning heap for this stretch. Last in success, out of all 30 major league teams. “C’mon,” you’ll argue. “Stop blowing this out of proportion. Just look at those division pennants waving atop Target Field. One of them is even as recent as 2020. That’s success.” Sure, I know they’re there. I just can’t shake the feeling that they just don’t matter all that much. Sure, the Twins have had some success in a weak division - the children’s table of baseball - building up midseason leads and slipping ahead of marginal competition. But when the heat is on, when the top teams are in town, when the playoff bunting flies, the Twins aren’t much of a ballclub. They don’t win when it really counts, when it would generate excitement, when it would really bring the state together. They are a professional organization run and staffed by what seem to be genuinely decent and otherwise competent people. But they don’t win … and that matters. In 1986, I fell head over heels for the Minnesota Twins. They were a bad ballclub, but I loved the game and I loved the team and I loved the Metrodome (yeah, I know). My dad took me to ten games or so that year, taking time from a very busy work schedule to indulge me. He even took me to Fan Appreciation Night, where Bert Blyleven apologized to the crowd for a disappointing season, adding that he saw the core of a talented club that could bring a World Series to Minnesota in 1987. My father audibly groaned. “It’ll never happen,” he said. “What if it does,” I asked. “Look, if the Twins go to the World Series next year, I’ll buy us both tickets. But it won’t happen, kid.” You know the rest. Like magic, it did happen. And we were there. And my father, a serious man, hooted and cheered and waved like a kid. He loved the Twins more than I had realized, and he’d waited his life for this. When they won Game 7, he paraded me through the streets of Minneapolis on his shoulders. We hugged and high-fived strangers and police officers. We celebrated the success of our local team, a scrappy small market underdog. “Enjoy it” he told me. “Because it’ll never happen again.” We did not buy tickets to the 1991 series. We watched all the drama from the comfort of home. But I grew up with an embarrassment of baseball riches. More than that, I have memories of my father - the stoic US Navy veteran and successful man of business - that are priceless. I got to see my father become a kid, just like me, bursting with joy over the game of baseball. The years are wearing on him now, and it's hard to know how much time we have left together. We don’t talk Twins much anymore, my father and me. He never watches games and rarely reads the box scores. I tried to sit him down to watch the 2019 Twins take on the Marlins on TV. I hyped him up for the “Bomba Squad” and chose an opponent I was sure the Twins could beat. I wanted him back on the bandwagon with me. I thought a special season was coming together again. Newly acquired Sam Dyson blew the lead. Buxton injured his shoulder. The Twins lost 5-4 in extras. But my dad didn’t see it end - he had gone to the garage to tinker with the lawn mower engine. Somehow, he knew that team wasn’t anything special. “Wake me up when they look like a winner again,” he told me. So here we are, three years removed from the 2019 season which ended in another postseason whimper. The consolation at the time was that the Twins appeared on the cusp of a breakout - a potential string of AL Central dominance that might lead them deep into the playoffs. Instead, we’ve just witnessed an absolutely epic late-season collapse that will leave them in third place and likely below .500 for the second straight year. Worst to third in the AL Central, particularly after signing the #1 free agent in baseball in the offseason, hardly inspires much hope. It’s not that these things don’t happen in baseball, or in all professional sports. It would be foolish to expect the Twins - a mid-market team - to win back-to-back championships every decade, or to be angered by occasional rough seasons or disappointing endings. It’s not so much that the Twins lose, but how they lose - and that they lose when it matters most and even when they seemingly have what they need to succeed - that is so hard to stomach. It’s a culture of losing that has essentially destroyed fan morale and widespread interest in the game here in Minnesota. Here’s what I’m trying to say: It’s not just that the Twins lose, it’s how losing no longer seems to be a problem for the organization. No one who represents the Twins really seems disappointed or upset by what's happened this season. There’s no visible sense of urgency or frustration. The club’s director of communication admonishes critics for any negativity and tells fans to “ride with us,” without acknowledging that the club’s trainwreck bullpen failures made getting back in the fandom car seem like a death wish. “We played our game, we played hard,” is Baldelli’s general mantra after bitter losses, as though professionals being paid hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars shouldn’t be expected to “play hard” as a basic condition of their employment. Instead of playoff wins, we’ve gotten endless strings of excuses: injuries, payroll limitations, called strikes that only seem to pinch our batters, and platitudes about being “almost there” and busy “reloading.” What’s that old saying? Sound and fury, signifying nothing. Though scratch that - what I wouldn’t give for even a little well-placed fury from this club. They endlessly preach process, but seem to have no real interest in results. Meanwhile, there is an entire generation of young people who have never once seen a Twins playoff victory. They’ve never seen their friends or family members turn giddy at the prospect of coming out on top, of beating the big boys of baseball in late autumn.They’ve never seen the way a playoff run can pull people together and shake up the routine of life. Winning inspires chatter and energy. It changes dull small talk about the weather into tales of late-inning heroics. The perfect throw to the plate to preserve a close lead. The seeing-eye single that brought in the tying run. The walk-off home run that electrifies a city. Minnesota is a beautiful state. The Twin Cities represent two vibrant metropolitan centers within a short cross-river drive. Greater Minnesota features majestic beauty and kind-hearted communities. At times, we become two very different kinds of people living in the same state. We sometimes lose a common worldview and a common cause. On top of that, we’ve weathered a pandemic, civil unrest, extreme political division and economic instability. Any of the top professional teams in this state that actually commits to winning - and actually does win when it counts - will find that, beyond their own satisfaction, they’ve added a stitch or two to a sense of unity and pride in the state. Winning gives people relief and hope - even in small ways - and it gives them moments and stories with those they love. Yes, baseball is only a sport and maybe even a dying one, but winning is symbolic. Winning inspires. I know I’m cranky. There will soon be any number of articles coming from people who are less cranky about how the Twins had some positive developments this year, and that the FO gave their trades and signings their best shot, and that some prospects took major steps forward, and that winning at the professional level isn’t the only thing that matters. I’m going to shake my head when I read those stories. I may even pound my fist on the table. Because damn it, it is. Winning is how you measure success in MLB. Winning is the only thing that matters at this level (and please don’t counter with “playing the game fairly is more important,” because that, too, is a basic professional expectation that should go without saying). And the Twins don’t win when it counts. And that matters. And anyone who does not make this the top priority for this team should no longer be involved with this organization. Find out why injuries keep derailing promising prospects. Find out why high-leverage situations at the plate and on the mound keep resulting in failure. Find out why the team looks like roadkill when the Yankees come to town. Find out why the team lacks fundamental skills on the bases and in the field. Focus less on mundane processes and more on getting situational results. Put the team through high-stress drills. Get the players ready for battle, rather than stocked with excuses when they fail. Because Coach Beard is right. Winning matters. And it’s been far, far, far too long since the Twins have won anything when it counts.